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The public reject Rayner’s nasty insults – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,711
edited April 27 in General
imageThe public reject Rayner’s nasty insults – politicalbetting.com

With Angela Rayner calling Rishi Sunak a "pint-sized loser", do Britons think it is acceptable to tease someone for being short?Acceptable: 26%Unacceptable: 67%https://t.co/GaMHY5UIwR pic.twitter.com/EnhYz0eivj

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  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,872
    First.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,930
    Can we assume TSE is on the more petite size? 😂
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,872
    This is all stuff and nonsense - not likely to influence a single seat, including Rayner's, in the next GE.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,636
    GIN1138 said:

    Can we assume TSE is on the more petite size? 😂

    6ft
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,788
    edited April 27
    6th.

    GIN1138 said:

    Can we assume TSE is on the more petite size? 😂

    6ft
    Is that by law?

    FPT:

    Off topic
    "Just say where you want to go, and Tesla FSD 12.3.5 will take you there"
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43Lrrhn0CMk

    I think video shows quite a few of the serious problems with the US road system - for example vehicles parked hard against almost all of the crosswalks preventing a clear view of and for pedestrians.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,079
    I think there's a bit of wishful thinking going on in the public response to that question. Certainly not borne out in practice that I've ever seen.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,930

    GIN1138 said:

    Can we assume TSE is on the more petite size? 😂

    6ft
    That's probably around 5' 10 in reality then? :D
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,872
    I suspect if the question had been more direct: "Do you think Angela Rayner was wrong to call Sunak a 'pint-sized loser'" the results would have been different.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,016

    Angela Rayner sadly has a record of personal insults.

    Not what we need in politics.

    Oh, so calling your fellow PBers a bunch of Guardianista virtue-signalling circle-jerk masturbators isn't an insult? Well, I never. That's my one-new-thing-learnt-on-PB-every-day for today.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,181
    Good morning.

    @AndyJS recently raised the intriguing prospect of TRUSS returning as Prime Minister, a bold yet tantalising prospect.

    My consideration was whether she could become Thin Controllix of Great British Railways, as a midway station to her premiership, putting her back on track to Number 10.

    No doubt PBers will have their own views.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,788
    FPT

    Taxpayers brace for £100bn money-printing bill – as George Osborne says it’s ‘not my responsibility’
    Ex-chancellor’s decision to transfer QE profits to the Treasury has come back to bite Hunt

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/26/taxpayers-qe-100bn-bill-george-osborne-not-responsibility/ (£££)

    Can anyone throw some light on this?

    What is Jeremy Hunt's game in the Bank of England reportedly 'selling at a loss'? Is he making the country take a hit artificially to make it seem that national debt is being reduced responsibly?

    The former chancellor said quantitative easing, under which the Bank of England created £895bn of money to buy bonds, “was a necessary policy to get us out of the financial crash, and contributed to the fastest recovery of any G7 economy”.

    He added that it was “not my responsibility” to oversee the present status of the scheme, which is costing the Exchequer tens of billions of pounds because of an agreement with the Bank that losses should be borne by the taxpayer.

    The policy began in the financial crisis, holding down borrowing costs for the government, injecting liquidity into financial markets and, initially, making a profit for the Bank.

    In 2012 Osborne transferred profits from the scheme to the Treasury, lowering the Exchequer’s borrowing requirements – but agreeing, as part of this deal, to also bear the weight of any losses in future.

    However, higher interest rates and lower bond values mean the Bank is now losing money on the scheme.

    As a result, in the past year the Treasury has transferred £44bn to the Bank to cover the losses. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) expects an overall net cost to the public purse of more than £100bn.
    https://archive.ph/K1yKN

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,079

    This is all stuff and nonsense - not likely to influence a single seat, including Rayner's, in the next GE.

    People don't mind politicians being a bit mean to people they don't like. Even where a line of civility is crossed, its not going to override other factors unless they are spectacularly vulgar and offensive on a regular basis. I don't think any MPs are that.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,875
    Tease, whilst accurate, is somewhat leading here.

    It's an interesting one, of course fundamentally it has to be wrong. However it is probably a category or so less wrong than race, sex or even weight, as whilst height does matter to a lot of things including self image through to earning potential, it tends to matter only a little.

    I would place it in the somewhat unnacceptable category, and am certainly guilty of using it on occassion.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,016

    Good morning.

    @AndyJS recently raised the intriguing prospect of TRUSS returning as Prime Minister, a bold yet tantalising prospect.

    My consideration was whether she could become Thin Controllix of Great British Railways, as a midway station to her premiership, putting her back on track to Number 10.

    No doubt PBers will have their own views.

    That's the BLT sandwiches off the buffet trolley menu, then.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,636
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Can we assume TSE is on the more petite size? 😂

    6ft
    That's probably around 5' 10 in reality then? :D
    I would never belittle Sunak's height.



    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/06/13/rishi-sunak-looks-like-a-homunculus-this-may-stymie-his-leadership-ambitions/
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,906

    GIN1138 said:

    Can we assume TSE is on the more petite size? 😂

    6ft
    With your legendary modesty, I expected another couple of inches above that.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,363
    The general public are out of line with the PB crowd then.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,079
    edited April 27

    Tease, whilst accurate, is somewhat leading here.

    It's an interesting one, of course fundamentally it has to be wrong. However it is probably a category or so less wrong than race, sex or even weight, as whilst height does matter to a lot of things including self image through to earning potential, it tends to matter only a little.

    I would place it in the somewhat unnacceptable category, and am certainly guilty of using it on occassion.

    I don't mind teasing people for their height so long as they are about the same height as me. So anything in the 5ft 6-7 range. We're short, but not that short, so no point getting precious about it.

    Beyond that and it's too mean.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,665
    Personally I would have turned insult round.

    “The Honourable Lady has chosen personal invective. This means that she must agree completely on policy with my Honourable Friend the Prime Minister. If she would like to cross the floor, I think we can find her a space.”

    Turn “Tory” Rayner into a meme.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,788

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Can we assume TSE is on the more petite size? 😂

    6ft
    That's probably around 5' 10 in reality then? :D
    I would never belittle Sunak's height.



    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/06/13/rishi-sunak-looks-like-a-homunculus-this-may-stymie-his-leadership-ambitions/
    Did they send the regimental beanpole? I do hope so.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,811
    I think it's unacceptable, but it was pointed out on the previous thread that Rayner was quoting the insult from a Conservative MP. She was making the valid point that so many of the recent Conservative leaders have positioned themselves in opposition to their predecessors that none of them have any authority at all.

    She should in my view watch her language however.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,665
    Carnyx said:

    Angela Rayner sadly has a record of personal insults.

    Not what we need in politics.

    Oh, so calling your fellow PBers a bunch of Guardianista virtue-signalling circle-jerk masturbators isn't an insult? Well, I never. That's my one-new-thing-learnt-on-PB-every-day for today.
    You left out woke.

    Badge of pride, Shirley?
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,021
    Carnyx said:

    Good morning.

    @AndyJS recently raised the intriguing prospect of TRUSS returning as Prime Minister, a bold yet tantalising prospect.

    My consideration was whether she could become Thin Controllix of Great British Railways, as a midway station to her premiership, putting her back on track to Number 10.

    No doubt PBers will have their own views.

    That's the BLT sandwiches off the buffet trolley menu, then.
    To be replaced by BRITISH cheese sandwiches.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,079
    Taz said:

    The general public are out of line with the PB crowd then.

    Do the public have different views on teasing in person vs online?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,636
    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Can we assume TSE is on the more petite size? 😂

    6ft
    With your legendary modesty, I expected another couple of inches above that.
    I recently bought a new pair of Hugo Boss trainers and I didn't realise they had platform soles, so it does add an extra 2-3 inches in height.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,079

    Being a short arse means you get all the glory. I was usually the shortest (171cm/5'7") male firefighter on my station, and would always be the one sent through a window, kicked in door panel, upside down car or lobbed over a fence. It was also an advantage wearing BA as I never got stuck in tight spaces.
    Being tall is overrated.

    I don't think that glory point applies to us office workers unfortunately
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,073
    Labour will lose precisely zero votes from shortgate .

    Calling a fellow politician a name is different from a member of the public . Of more importance electorally is what happens with the police investigation into Rayner .

    I think it’s unlikely we’ll hear anything before the locals as that would be seen as interfering with those elections and even the Tory stooge at MP might want to avoid that .

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,079

    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Can we assume TSE is on the more petite size? 😂

    6ft
    With your legendary modesty, I expected another couple of inches above that.
    I recently bought a new pair of Hugo Boss trainers and I didn't realise they had platform soles, so it does add an extra 2-3 inches in height.
    Didn't realise. We believe you, boss.
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    Being a short arse means you get all the glory. I was usually the shortest (171cm/5'7") male firefighter on my station, and would always be the one sent through a window, kicked in door panel, upside down car or lobbed over a fence. It was also an advantage wearing BA as I never got stuck in tight spaces.
    Being tall is overrated.

    I don't think that glory point applies to us office workers unfortunately
    You can get into the back of the filling cabinet to get the last Bourbon. Take the wins where you can.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,016
    About that US pol and her pooch/goat, did she really use shotgun cartridges rather than bullets?

    And:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/27/kristi-noem-trump-vp-book-killing-dog

    'Later, the Lincoln Project, the anti-Trump group Wilson co-founded, released a short video ad.

    Over shots of dogs looking lovable but acting rambunctiously, a solemn voice said: “Dog owners know our furry friends can be a lot to keep up with.

    “But when those tough moments come, you have options. Shooting your dog in the face should not be one of them. And if you do happen to shoot your dog in the face, please, don’t write about it in your autobiography.

    “This has been a public service announcement directed at any Republican who may be considering murdering their dog.”'


    https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1783956717891473559
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,636
    edited April 27
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Can we assume TSE is on the more petite size? 😂

    6ft
    With your legendary modesty, I expected another couple of inches above that.
    I recently bought a new pair of Hugo Boss trainers and I didn't realise they had platform soles, so it does add an extra 2-3 inches in height.
    Didn't realise. We believe you, boss.
    I see JohnO in a fortnight, he will be able to attest that these send me in to the 6ft 2/3 inch group.

    Edit - I need to check Gaucho's dress code before I wear these.
  • Options
    AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 191
    I have just done a YouGov survey which asked that question. How come the results have been published without my answer being included? This is an outrage! The vote has been rigged! I am now going into full-on Trump mode, and declare that the vote has been stolen. Where is YouGov based? I need to know so that I can send along some Shamen, Proud Boys and Truthers. (You're all expected to attend, obviously.)
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,016

    Carnyx said:

    Angela Rayner sadly has a record of personal insults.

    Not what we need in politics.

    Oh, so calling your fellow PBers a bunch of Guardianista virtue-signalling circle-jerk masturbators isn't an insult? Well, I never. That's my one-new-thing-learnt-on-PB-every-day for today.
    You left out woke.

    Badge of pride, Shirley?
    One should always leave something on the side of the plate, in theory at least.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 4,013
    FF43 said:

    I think it's unacceptable, but it was pointed out on the previous thread that Rayner was quoting the insult from a Conservative MP. She was making the valid point that so many of the recent Conservative leaders have positioned themselves in opposition to their predecessors that none of them have any authority at all.

    She should in my view watch her language however.

    I don’t think it’s a serious issue. Basically it’s a big boned woman mocking a man’s height. She’s obviously not going to have any issues with anyone using her physical characteristics to score points so it’s all ok.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,698

    Carnyx said:

    Good morning.

    @AndyJS recently raised the intriguing prospect of TRUSS returning as Prime Minister, a bold yet tantalising prospect.

    My consideration was whether she could become Thin Controllix of Great British Railways, as a midway station to her premiership, putting her back on track to Number 10.

    No doubt PBers will have their own views.

    That's the BLT sandwiches off the buffet trolley menu, then.
    To be replaced by BRITISH cheese sandwiches.
    YORRKSHIRE tea!
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,073
    edited April 27

    Being a short arse means you get all the glory. I was usually the shortest (171cm/5'7") male firefighter on my station, and would always be the one sent through a window, kicked in door panel, upside down car or lobbed over a fence. It was also an advantage wearing BA as I never got stuck in tight spaces.
    Being tall is overrated.

    I have the highest admiration for people who put themselves in danger to protect the public and save lives .Bless you.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,698
    Carnyx said:

    Angela Rayner sadly has a record of personal insults.

    Not what we need in politics.

    Oh, so calling your fellow PBers a bunch of Guardianista virtue-signalling circle-jerk masturbators isn't an insult? Well, I never. That's my one-new-thing-learnt-on-PB-every-day for today.
    I wasn't actually referring to you, or any other PB'er, but it's interesting you self-identify as such.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,874

    I have just done a YouGov survey which asked that question. How come the results have been published without my answer being included? This is an outrage! The vote has been rigged! I am now going into full-on Trump mode, and declare that the vote has been stolen. Where is YouGov based? I need to know so that I can send along some Shamen, Proud Boys and Truthers. (You're all expected to attend, obviously.)

    Yours is a full poll, while the one in the header was from the 3 question daily poll, so be patient.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,875

    I have just done a YouGov survey which asked that question. How come the results have been published without my answer being included? This is an outrage! The vote has been rigged! I am now going into full-on Trump mode, and declare that the vote has been stolen. Where is YouGov based? I need to know so that I can send along some Shamen, Proud Boys and Truthers. (You're all expected to attend, obviously.)

    Sounds like a tall story to me.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,016

    Carnyx said:

    Angela Rayner sadly has a record of personal insults.

    Not what we need in politics.

    Oh, so calling your fellow PBers a bunch of Guardianista virtue-signalling circle-jerk masturbators isn't an insult? Well, I never. That's my one-new-thing-learnt-on-PB-every-day for today.
    I wasn't actually referring to you, or any other PB'er, but it's interesting you self-identify as such.
    You were clearly referring, especially when your other comments were take into account, to anyone who opposes the Rwanda plan on *any* grounds, including people on PB who - in my case, for instance - were discussing primarily the practical and operational grounds for believing it wouldn't work. Which last is irrelevant to any wokery or virtue-signalling you might perceive in it.


    You shouldn't use such insults so lavishly if you don't want to be called out on it.

  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,698
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Angela Rayner sadly has a record of personal insults.

    Not what we need in politics.

    Oh, so calling your fellow PBers a bunch of Guardianista virtue-signalling circle-jerk masturbators isn't an insult? Well, I never. That's my one-new-thing-learnt-on-PB-every-day for today.
    I wasn't actually referring to you, or any other PB'er, but it's interesting you self-identify as such.
    You were clearly referring, especially when your other comments were take into account, to anyone who opposes the Rwanda plan on *any* grounds, including people on PB who - in my case, for instance - were discussing primarily the practical and operational grounds for believing it wouldn't work. Which last is irrelevant to any wokery or virtue-signalling you might perceive in it.


    You shouldn't use such insults so lavishly if you don't want to be called out on it.

    No, you're just far more comfortable combatting this subject in the ad-hominem space because you have precisely no answers to the substance.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,756
    Something to highlight:

    Labour's polling lead 1 week before Local Elections:

    2021: -7.2%
    2022: +5.8%
    2023: +15.3%
    2024: +20.0%

    So not only big gains expected from the bulk of the seats last contested 3 years ago, but also gains to be expected in those seats that were last up more recently, though not as dramatic.

    Plus of course Tory losses to LibDems and Greens.

    500 Tory losses looks like the benchmark.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,079

    Something to highlight:

    Labour's polling lead 1 week before Local Elections:

    2021: -7.2%
    2022: +5.8%
    2023: +15.3%
    2024: +20.0%

    So not only big gains expected from the bulk of the seats last contested 3 years ago, but also gains to be expected in those seats that were last up more recently, though not as dramatic.

    Plus of course Tory losses to LibDems and Greens.

    500 Tory losses looks like the benchmark.

    That'll be smashed.
  • Options
    AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 191
    Foxy said:

    I have just done a YouGov survey which asked that question. How come the results have been published without my answer being included? This is an outrage! The vote has been rigged! I am now going into full-on Trump mode, and declare that the vote has been stolen. Where is YouGov based? I need to know so that I can send along some Shamen, Proud Boys and Truthers. (You're all expected to attend, obviously.)

    Yours is a full poll, while the one in the header was from the 3 question daily poll, so be patient.
    Well, you're obviously in the pay of Big Polling. I think we should have a riot anyway.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,395
    I don't like it. It's playground stuff. But fwiw I don't think Sunak's height (lack of) is what hurts him image-wise it's more the general lack of him. He really is very tiny.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,875

    Something to highlight:

    Labour's polling lead 1 week before Local Elections:

    2021: -7.2%
    2022: +5.8%
    2023: +15.3%
    2024: +20.0%

    So not only big gains expected from the bulk of the seats last contested 3 years ago, but also gains to be expected in those seats that were last up more recently, though not as dramatic.

    Plus of course Tory losses to LibDems and Greens.

    500 Tory losses looks like the benchmark.

    How much does national polling really impact locals here? Can the local Tories possibly be anywhere as bad as the national party? I doubt it.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,875
    kinabalu said:

    I don't like it. It's playground stuff. But fwiw I don't think Sunak's height (lack of) is what hurts him image-wise it's more the general lack of him. He really is very tiny.

    Playground is interesting as well. If she had said it on BBC Question Time, I would move to the completely unnacceptable category, whereas in the House of Commons it is kinda like a playground so doesn't feel so out of place.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,488
    Labour should have enough good ammunition sticking to policy and politics and the very large number of failures of the government, their numerous incidents of self-contradiction, etc, not to have time to draw upon playground insults.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,073
    kinabalu said:

    I don't like it. It's playground stuff. But fwiw I don't think Sunak's height (lack of) is what hurts him image-wise it's more the general lack of him. He really is very tiny.

    Starmer is 5’8 and Johnson 5’7. Yet both seem much taller as they’re not thin . Sunak looks like he could barely lift a tin of beans.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,886
    .

    Carnyx said:

    Angela Rayner sadly has a record of personal insults.

    Not what we need in politics.

    Oh, so calling your fellow PBers a bunch of Guardianista virtue-signalling circle-jerk masturbators isn't an insult? Well, I never. That's my one-new-thing-learnt-on-PB-every-day for today.
    I wasn't actually referring to you, or any other PB'er, but it's interesting you self-identify as such.
    OK, so you say you weren’t insulting other PBers. You were just insulting other people. Still seems a bit hypocritical to claim we don’t need insults when you toss them out with such gay abandon.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,665
    Carnyx said:

    About that US pol and her pooch/goat, did she really use shotgun cartridges rather than bullets?

    And:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/27/kristi-noem-trump-vp-book-killing-dog

    'Later, the Lincoln Project, the anti-Trump group Wilson co-founded, released a short video ad.

    Over shots of dogs looking lovable but acting rambunctiously, a solemn voice said: “Dog owners know our furry friends can be a lot to keep up with.

    “But when those tough moments come, you have options. Shooting your dog in the face should not be one of them. And if you do happen to shoot your dog in the face, please, don’t write about it in your autobiography.

    “This has been a public service announcement directed at any Republican who may be considering murdering their dog.”'


    https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1783956717891473559

    Depends on the shotgun, and the cartridges. Could be anything from gross overmatch (messy but humane) to horribly underpowered.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,073
    The best outcome for the opposition parties in Scotland is for Yousaf to scrape over the line and stay as FM .

  • Options
    ClippPClippP Posts: 1,706

    Labour should have enough good ammunition sticking to policy and politics and the very large number of failures of the government, their numerous incidents of self-contradiction, etc, not to have time to draw upon playground insults.

    You call it "playground insults". A serious politician would call is "good-humoured HoC banter".

    Same thing really. They learn it at Eton and Oxford.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,698

    .

    Carnyx said:

    Angela Rayner sadly has a record of personal insults.

    Not what we need in politics.

    Oh, so calling your fellow PBers a bunch of Guardianista virtue-signalling circle-jerk masturbators isn't an insult? Well, I never. That's my one-new-thing-learnt-on-PB-every-day for today.
    I wasn't actually referring to you, or any other PB'er, but it's interesting you self-identify as such.
    OK, so you say you weren’t insulting other PBers. You were just insulting other people. Still seems a bit hypocritical to claim we don’t need insults when you toss them out with such gay abandon.
    Err, not really. A personal insult is a personal insult.

    I was critiquing the behaviours of a group of "Guardianistas" in aggregate, who share certain political characteristics.

    They are not remotely comparable, and well you know it.
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,609
    ClippP said:

    Labour should have enough good ammunition sticking to policy and politics and the very large number of failures of the government, their numerous incidents of self-contradiction, etc, not to have time to draw upon playground insults.

    You call it "playground insults". A serious politician would call is "good-humoured HoC banter".

    Same thing really. They learn it at Eton and Oxford.
    And that's Ange's real problem.

    She didn't learn the game at Oxford. At best, that means she's doing it slightly but revealingly wrong. At worst, she's an oik who shouldn't stray where she doesn't belong.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,857
    edited April 27

    Something to highlight:

    Labour's polling lead 1 week before Local Elections:

    2021: -7.2%
    2022: +5.8%
    2023: +15.3%
    2024: +20.0%

    So not only big gains expected from the bulk of the seats last contested 3 years ago, but also gains to be expected in those seats that were last up more recently, though not as dramatic.

    Plus of course Tory losses to LibDems and Greens.

    500 Tory losses looks like the benchmark.

    How much does national polling really impact locals here? Can the local Tories possibly be anywhere as bad as the national party? I doubt it.
    The NEV (and/or the other one) for 2021 and 2023 were iirc -7 and +9 respectively.

    With this year being metro heavy and the metros being somewhat less swingy than the shires, if Labour extend that to +12, I'd be fairly content that all was well ahead of the GE.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,394
    FPT:

    Carnyx said:

    Icarus said:

    Icarus said:

    Moon Rabbit says:

    "Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. ....... The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening."

    I can see the headline: 50 Flown to Rwanda, 500 more come over the Channel

    Which rather suggests that the the government don’t actually want ANY flights to take off. They want to replicate the anger around Brexit with the anger that the Rwanda plan is being thwarted by the blob, and used that as Johnson used Brexit. So arguably if you want the Tories to lose, and you are involved in refugee claims in court, don’t block the flights…
    As you have outlined, there will be far more coming than going.
    Though some people (52%) actually thought that Brexit was a good idea, no one, well almost no one, thinks Rwanda is other than a very expensive gimmick.
    Well, that's not true:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/migrants-in-calais-if-they-send-me-to-rwanda-ill-kill-myself-l0fj7drcc

    There's a real fear it might work. Hence all the attacks on it by the UN, third sector and refugee charities. They are worried it will set a precedent.

    This explains their confused attack lines: they seamlessly switch from its terrible to it will make no difference at all and back again.
    Some of us simply find it an extraordinarily badly planned project with no realistic scope of working beyond a few hundred migrants a year. Horrendously expensive for the results.

    It's Groundnut Scheme level thinking.

    Once upon a time, Tories supported (a) prudence in public spending (b) the rule of law (UK) (c) the rule of law (international).

    Nah, it's Guardianista virtue-signalling circle-jerk masturbation for social and professional acceptance reasons.

    We all know this. So do you.
    The Conservatives are languishing in the polls and to work out why, I think it’s valuable to examine Casino Royale’s post here.

    First, CR argues by assertion, ‘it’s right because I say it’s right’. This echoes the Conservative government passing an act to say Rwanda is safe, irrespective of the facts.

    Secondly, CR tries to link the debate to the culture wars by throwing in “virtue-signalling”. The Tories have repeatedly tried the same, but it’s not proven popular with the voters.

    Thirdly, there’s no attempt at polite discourse here. It’s just straight to the insults, ‘owning the libs’. This is also failing to be attractive to the electorate.
    What a lot of rubbish. I've said that (a) the visceral reaction to it is because the UN, charities and refugees themselves fear it might be effective and that (b) that's because they favour open borders and have a strange sense of cultural relativism.

    Their real worry is that they know this offer might prove very popular with the voters, if it worked, and hence all the moves to strangle it at birth.

    If you think the same tough choices don't await SKS in a few months time then I've got a bridge to sell you.
    Can we pick this apart a little? "The UN, charities and refugees themselves fear it might be effective". Which bit of the UN, which charities etc? The UN very much wants to STOP mass refugee events and the crises they create. You suggest that they favour "open borders" the context of millions fleeing war and poverty and then ending up stuck in giant refugee camps being tended to by the UN. You think the UN actually want to be on the hook feeding millions of refugees? really?

    The key to this is "if it worked" and as all the experts in every related field have pointed out - it can't work because structurally its bonkers.

    You have linked the "deport them to Rwanda" policy as being opposed by a globalist cabal - the UN, charities, refugees - who apparently want refugees. So is their fear that every refugees globally might end up sent to Rwanda?

    Lets just look at the asylum seekers in the UK. There's c. 100,000 already here, with more arriving every day in sizeable numbers. So call it 120,000 on the basis that "Rwanda works" and people stop arriving.

    Rwanda can't take 120,000
    We can't process 120,000 through the courts
    We can't intern 120,000 prior to them going to court
    We can't process the 120,000's applications due to a lack of money and resources in the Home Office
    We can't keep track of 120,000 after booking their arrival. We lose them.

    So the rather basic problem with you/Leon endlessly championing the policy is that the policy was written in crayon to appeal to morons. You two aren't morons, yet suck it up like you are.

    Why?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,079
    ClippP said:

    Labour should have enough good ammunition sticking to policy and politics and the very large number of failures of the government, their numerous incidents of self-contradiction, etc, not to have time to draw upon playground insults.

    You call it "playground insults". A serious politician would call is "good-humoured HoC banter".

    Same thing really. They learn it at Eton and Oxford.
    Politics is allowed to be rough at times, even rude. Much worthwhile commentary and criticism might be contained within otherwise offensive, emotive language, and we wouldn't want to lose that entirely out of a misplaced desire to always be civil. It is, in any case, possible to be extremely rude whilst being superficially civil.

    Within the Commons and other deliberative bodies there are general rules of debate to prevent things becoming a pointless exercise in personal insult and posturing anyway.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,079
    ClippP said:

    Labour should have enough good ammunition sticking to policy and politics and the very large number of failures of the government, their numerous incidents of self-contradiction, etc, not to have time to draw upon playground insults.

    You call it "playground insults". A serious politician would call is "good-humoured HoC banter".

    Same thing really. They learn it at Eton and Oxford.
    Eton does teach many things. Like mummy and daddy's money meaning you are an important person entitled to great things - they come out with great confidence.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,178
    I see we're into insults and PB navel-watching.
    Time to go bowling
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,139
    nico679 said:

    The best outcome for the opposition parties in Scotland is for Yousaf to scrape over the line and stay as FM .

    A bribe to the horrible Greens and they will take the money, will be missing their fancy cars already
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,079

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Can we assume TSE is on the more petite size? 😂

    6ft
    With your legendary modesty, I expected another couple of inches above that.
    I recently bought a new pair of Hugo Boss trainers and I didn't realise they had platform soles, so it does add an extra 2-3 inches in height.
    Didn't realise. We believe you, boss.
    I see JohnO in a fortnight, he will be able to attest that these send me in to the 6ft 2/3 inch group.

    Edit - I need to check Gaucho's dress code before I wear these.
    Dress code? Definitely posh.

    Working class eateries are only concerned wtih feeding you, not how you appear.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,861
    malcolmg said:

    nico679 said:

    The best outcome for the opposition parties in Scotland is for Yousaf to scrape over the line and stay as FM .

    A bribe to the horrible Greens and they will take the money, will be missing their fancy cars already
    I hope they’re fancy EV cars.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,861
    Another miserable day dawns. It might get up to 12C if we’re lucky today. 10 tomorrow. Rain all afternoon and tomorrow morning. The joys of spring.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,906
    He really wasn't well.

    Rageh Omaar: ITV host receiving medical care after becoming unwell live on air
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68910984
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,079
    TimS said:

    Another miserable day dawns. It might get up to 12C if we’re lucky today. 10 tomorrow. Rain all afternoon and tomorrow morning. The joys of spring.

    I'm loving this chilly spring, though I assume farmers are not.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,139
    TimS said:

    malcolmg said:

    nico679 said:

    The best outcome for the opposition parties in Scotland is for Yousaf to scrape over the line and stay as FM .

    A bribe to the horrible Greens and they will take the money, will be missing their fancy cars already
    I hope they’re fancy EV cars.
    They have no principles so will not matter much. Recent examples from Slater, booked a private ferry rather than mix with great unwashed in the normal one and when going to plant a tree to save the planet took a chauffeur driven limousine 120 miles rather than mix with the great unwashed in a train. Chisellers and grifters.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,861
    On topic Rayner should have made clearer the insult was from Nadine. That would have put her in the clear while reinforcing the divided Tories narrative.

    The trouble is jibes like this do stick, and Sunak rather like Major suffers from the perception he’s weak and liable to be bullied. No amount of talking tough on benefits scroungers or Rwanda can overcome that.

    May got some of the same thing after 2017. Dead woman walking etc. It’s hugely damaging politically.

    The dynamic was rather different with the next two. Boris never seemed weak, he just became more and more clearly a lying arsehole. He was still feared right up to the end. Truss’ weakness was of a different sort. She didn’t seem liable to bullying, indeed her thick skin is quite remarkable, rather she just seemed completely out of her depth.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,861
    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    Another miserable day dawns. It might get up to 12C if we’re lucky today. 10 tomorrow. Rain all afternoon and tomorrow morning. The joys of spring.

    I'm loving this chilly spring, though I assume farmers are not.
    Each to his own. I think it’s fair to assume it’s not just farmers who are not loving this chilly spring.

    But frankly it’s not just the chill, it’s the relentless cloud and rain.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,906
    TimS said:

    On topic Rayner should have made clearer the insult was from Nadine. That would have put her in the clear while reinforcing the divided Tories narrative.

    The trouble is jibes like this do stick, and Sunak rather like Major suffers from the perception he’s weak and liable to be bullied. No amount of talking tough on benefits scroungers or Rwanda can overcome that.

    May got some of the same thing after 2017. Dead woman walking etc. It’s hugely damaging politically.

    The dynamic was rather different with the next two. Boris never seemed weak, he just became more and more clearly a lying arsehole. He was still feared right up to the end. Truss’ weakness was of a different sort. She didn’t seem liable to bullying, indeed her thick skin is quite remarkable, rather she just seemed completely out of her depth.

    David Steel never really recovered from his Spitting Image manifestation.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,906

    FPT:

    Carnyx said:

    Icarus said:

    Icarus said:

    Moon Rabbit says:

    "Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. ....... The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening."

    I can see the headline: 50 Flown to Rwanda, 500 more come over the Channel

    Which rather suggests that the the government don’t actually want ANY flights to take off. They want to replicate the anger around Brexit with the anger that the Rwanda plan is being thwarted by the blob, and used that as Johnson used Brexit. So arguably if you want the Tories to lose, and you are involved in refugee claims in court, don’t block the flights…
    As you have outlined, there will be far more coming than going.
    Though some people (52%) actually thought that Brexit was a good idea, no one, well almost no one, thinks Rwanda is other than a very expensive gimmick.
    Well, that's not true:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/migrants-in-calais-if-they-send-me-to-rwanda-ill-kill-myself-l0fj7drcc

    There's a real fear it might work. Hence all the attacks on it by the UN, third sector and refugee charities. They are worried it will set a precedent.

    This explains their confused attack lines: they seamlessly switch from its terrible to it will make no difference at all and back again.
    Some of us simply find it an extraordinarily badly planned project with no realistic scope of working beyond a few hundred migrants a year. Horrendously expensive for the results.

    It's Groundnut Scheme level thinking.

    Once upon a time, Tories supported (a) prudence in public spending (b) the rule of law (UK) (c) the rule of law (international).

    Nah, it's Guardianista virtue-signalling circle-jerk masturbation for social and professional acceptance reasons.

    We all know this. So do you.
    The Conservatives are languishing in the polls and to work out why, I think it’s valuable to examine Casino Royale’s post here.

    First, CR argues by assertion, ‘it’s right because I say it’s right’. This echoes the Conservative government passing an act to say Rwanda is safe, irrespective of the facts.

    Secondly, CR tries to link the debate to the culture wars by throwing in “virtue-signalling”. The Tories have repeatedly tried the same, but it’s not proven popular with the voters.

    Thirdly, there’s no attempt at polite discourse here. It’s just straight to the insults, ‘owning the libs’. This is also failing to be attractive to the electorate.
    What a lot of rubbish. I've said that (a) the visceral reaction to it is because the UN, charities and refugees themselves fear it might be effective and that (b) that's because they favour open borders and have a strange sense of cultural relativism.

    Their real worry is that they know this offer might prove very popular with the voters, if it worked, and hence all the moves to strangle it at birth.

    If you think the same tough choices don't await SKS in a few months time then I've got a bridge to sell you.
    Can we pick this apart a little? "The UN, charities and refugees themselves fear it might be effective". Which bit of the UN, which charities etc? The UN very much wants to STOP mass refugee events and the crises they create. You suggest that they favour "open borders" the context of millions fleeing war and poverty and then ending up stuck in giant refugee camps being tended to by the UN. You think the UN actually want to be on the hook feeding millions of refugees? really?

    The key to this is "if it worked" and as all the experts in every related field have pointed out - it can't work because structurally its bonkers.

    You have linked the "deport them to Rwanda" policy as being opposed by a globalist cabal - the UN, charities, refugees - who apparently want refugees. So is their fear that every refugees globally might end up sent to Rwanda?

    Lets just look at the asylum seekers in the UK. There's c. 100,000 already here, with more arriving every day in sizeable numbers. So call it 120,000 on the basis that "Rwanda works" and people stop arriving.

    Rwanda can't take 120,000
    We can't process 120,000 through the courts
    We can't intern 120,000 prior to them going to court
    We can't process the 120,000's applications due to a lack of money and resources in the Home Office
    We can't keep track of 120,000 after booking their arrival. We lose them.

    So the rather basic problem with you/Leon endlessly championing the policy is that the policy was written in crayon to appeal to morons. You two aren't morons, yet suck it up like you are.

    Why?
    I can't remember who coined the term 'simplism', or applied it to political thinking, but there's a lot of it about.

    Basically, any argument that boils down to They Should Just... is simplism. Especially when you don't specify who They are. Brexit ended up being about simplism- They Should Just give us the benefits of EU membership that we valued without the messy bits we disliked. They Should Just quarantine the vulnerable during the pandemic was another. Or, on the left, They Should Just get the rich to pay more tax. Or, in this case, They Should Just stop coming over here.

    Trouble is, it's rarely as simple as Just Doing This. For taxes, it's totally fair to point out that if you overpluck the goose, it will fly away. That the nice bits about Europe depend on the messy plumbing. That the sausages are tasty but you don't want to see them being made.

    I'm not going to blame voters for wanting a simpler world, or for voting for it. But it's blooming irresponsible for opinion formers or wannabe leaders to pretend they can deliver one.
    Occasionally it's true, though.

    For example, the Post Office should just have come clean a decade ago.
    The mess would have still been complicated to sort out, but the decision itself would have been a simple one.
  • Options
    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 3,912
    A rather unusual missive from the previous Lib Dem West Midlands mayoral candidate arrived this morning, requesting that I vote Labour. Complete with bar charts demonstrating that the Lib Dem candidate can't win here!
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,861
    edited April 27

    FPT:

    Carnyx said:

    Icarus said:

    Icarus said:

    Moon Rabbit says:

    "Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. ....... The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening."

    I can see the headline: 50 Flown to Rwanda, 500 more come over the Channel

    Which rather suggests that the the government don’t actually want ANY flights to take off. They want to replicate the anger around Brexit with the anger that the Rwanda plan is being thwarted by the blob, and used that as Johnson used Brexit. So arguably if you want the Tories to lose, and you are involved in refugee claims in court, don’t block the flights…
    As you have outlined, there will be far more coming than going.
    Though some people (52%) actually thought that Brexit was a good idea, no one, well almost no one, thinks Rwanda is other than a very expensive gimmick.
    Well, that's not true:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/migrants-in-calais-if-they-send-me-to-rwanda-ill-kill-myself-l0fj7drcc

    There's a real fear it might work. Hence all the attacks on it by the UN, third sector and refugee charities. They are worried it will set a precedent.

    This explains their confused attack lines: they seamlessly switch from its terrible to it will make no difference at all and back again.
    Some of us simply find it an extraordinarily badly planned project with no realistic scope of working beyond a few hundred migrants a year. Horrendously expensive for the results.

    It's Groundnut Scheme level thinking.

    Once upon a time, Tories supported (a) prudence in public spending (b) the rule of law (UK) (c) the rule of law (international).

    Nah, it's Guardianista virtue-signalling circle-jerk masturbation for social and professional acceptance reasons.

    We all know this. So do you.
    The Conservatives are languishing in the polls and to work out why, I think it’s valuable to examine Casino Royale’s post here.

    First, CR argues by assertion, ‘it’s right because I say it’s right’. This echoes the Conservative government passing an act to say Rwanda is safe, irrespective of the facts.

    Secondly, CR tries to link the debate to the culture wars by throwing in “virtue-signalling”. The Tories have repeatedly tried the same, but it’s not proven popular with the voters.

    Thirdly, there’s no attempt at polite discourse here. It’s just straight to the insults, ‘owning the libs’. This is also failing to be attractive to the electorate.
    What a lot of rubbish. I've said that (a) the visceral reaction to it is because the UN, charities and refugees themselves fear it might be effective and that (b) that's because they favour open borders and have a strange sense of cultural relativism.

    Their real worry is that they know this offer might prove very popular with the voters, if it worked, and hence all the moves to strangle it at birth.

    If you think the same tough choices don't await SKS in a few months time then I've got a bridge to sell you.
    Can we pick this apart a little? "The UN, charities and refugees themselves fear it might be effective". Which bit of the UN, which charities etc? The UN very much wants to STOP mass refugee events and the crises they create. You suggest that they favour "open borders" the context of millions fleeing war and poverty and then ending up stuck in giant refugee camps being tended to by the UN. You think the UN actually want to be on the hook feeding millions of refugees? really?

    The key to this is "if it worked" and as all the experts in every related field have pointed out - it can't work because structurally its bonkers.

    You have linked the "deport them to Rwanda" policy as being opposed by a globalist cabal - the UN, charities, refugees - who apparently want refugees. So is their fear that every refugees globally might end up sent to Rwanda?

    Lets just look at the asylum seekers in the UK. There's c. 100,000 already here, with more arriving every day in sizeable numbers. So call it 120,000 on the basis that "Rwanda works" and people stop arriving.

    Rwanda can't take 120,000
    We can't process 120,000 through the courts
    We can't intern 120,000 prior to them going to court
    We can't process the 120,000's applications due to a lack of money and resources in the Home Office
    We can't keep track of 120,000 after booking their arrival. We lose them.

    So the rather basic problem with you/Leon endlessly championing the policy is that the policy was written in crayon to appeal to morons. You two aren't morons, yet suck it up like you are.

    Why?
    I can't remember who coined the term 'simplism', or applied it to political thinking, but there's a lot of it about.

    Basically, any argument that boils down to They Should Just... is simplism. Especially when you don't specify who They are. Brexit ended up being about simplism- They Should Just give us the benefits of EU membership that we valued without the messy bits we disliked. They Should Just quarantine the vulnerable during the pandemic was another. Or, on the left, They Should Just get the rich to pay more tax. Or, in this case, They Should Just stop coming over here.

    Trouble is, it's rarely as simple as Just Doing This. For taxes, it's totally fair to point out that if you overpluck the goose, it will fly away. That the nice bits about Europe depend on the messy plumbing. That the sausages are tasty but you don't want to see them being made.

    I'm not going to blame voters for wanting a simpler world, or for voting for it. But it's blooming irresponsible for opinion formers or wannabe leaders to pretend they can deliver one.
    Ah but by ruling out simplism and “they should just” and arguing the answer should always be nuanced are you not engaging in a form of simplism?

    Occasionally “they should just” does get to the heart of the matter. Usually when politicians have been faffing around but you already know what the eventual outcome will be. I would venture a few exceptions to the anti-simplism rule

    - They should just bloody build HS2
    - They should just call a general election now
    - They should just suspend / expel [name of politician who’s been caught doing something obviously dodgy]
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    FPT:

    Carnyx said:

    Icarus said:

    Icarus said:

    Moon Rabbit says:

    "Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. ....... The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening."

    I can see the headline: 50 Flown to Rwanda, 500 more come over the Channel

    Which rather suggests that the the government don’t actually want ANY flights to take off. They want to replicate the anger around Brexit with the anger that the Rwanda plan is being thwarted by the blob, and used that as Johnson used Brexit. So arguably if you want the Tories to lose, and you are involved in refugee claims in court, don’t block the flights…
    As you have outlined, there will be far more coming than going.
    Though some people (52%) actually thought that Brexit was a good idea, no one, well almost no one, thinks Rwanda is other than a very expensive gimmick.
    Well, that's not true:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/migrants-in-calais-if-they-send-me-to-rwanda-ill-kill-myself-l0fj7drcc

    There's a real fear it might work. Hence all the attacks on it by the UN, third sector and refugee charities. They are worried it will set a precedent.

    This explains their confused attack lines: they seamlessly switch from its terrible to it will make no difference at all and back again.
    Some of us simply find it an extraordinarily badly planned project with no realistic scope of working beyond a few hundred migrants a year. Horrendously expensive for the results.

    It's Groundnut Scheme level thinking.

    Once upon a time, Tories supported (a) prudence in public spending (b) the rule of law (UK) (c) the rule of law (international).

    Nah, it's Guardianista virtue-signalling circle-jerk masturbation for social and professional acceptance reasons.

    We all know this. So do you.
    The Conservatives are languishing in the polls and to work out why, I think it’s valuable to examine Casino Royale’s post here.

    First, CR argues by assertion, ‘it’s right because I say it’s right’. This echoes the Conservative government passing an act to say Rwanda is safe, irrespective of the facts.

    Secondly, CR tries to link the debate to the culture wars by throwing in “virtue-signalling”. The Tories have repeatedly tried the same, but it’s not proven popular with the voters.

    Thirdly, there’s no attempt at polite discourse here. It’s just straight to the insults, ‘owning the libs’. This is also failing to be attractive to the electorate.
    What a lot of rubbish. I've said that (a) the visceral reaction to it is because the UN, charities and refugees themselves fear it might be effective and that (b) that's because they favour open borders and have a strange sense of cultural relativism.

    Their real worry is that they know this offer might prove very popular with the voters, if it worked, and hence all the moves to strangle it at birth.

    If you think the same tough choices don't await SKS in a few months time then I've got a bridge to sell you.
    Can we pick this apart a little? "The UN, charities and refugees themselves fear it might be effective". Which bit of the UN, which charities etc? The UN very much wants to STOP mass refugee events and the crises they create. You suggest that they favour "open borders" the context of millions fleeing war and poverty and then ending up stuck in giant refugee camps being tended to by the UN. You think the UN actually want to be on the hook feeding millions of refugees? really?

    The key to this is "if it worked" and as all the experts in every related field have pointed out - it can't work because structurally its bonkers.

    You have linked the "deport them to Rwanda" policy as being opposed by a globalist cabal - the UN, charities, refugees - who apparently want refugees. So is their fear that every refugees globally might end up sent to Rwanda?

    Lets just look at the asylum seekers in the UK. There's c. 100,000 already here, with more arriving every day in sizeable numbers. So call it 120,000 on the basis that "Rwanda works" and people stop arriving.

    Rwanda can't take 120,000
    We can't process 120,000 through the courts
    We can't intern 120,000 prior to them going to court
    We can't process the 120,000's applications due to a lack of money and resources in the Home Office
    We can't keep track of 120,000 after booking their arrival. We lose them.

    So the rather basic problem with you/Leon endlessly championing the policy is that the policy was written in crayon to appeal to morons. You two aren't morons, yet suck it up like you are.

    Why?
    I can't remember who coined the term 'simplism', or applied it to political thinking, but there's a lot of it about.

    Basically, any argument that boils down to They Should Just... is simplism. Especially when you don't specify who They are. Brexit ended up being about simplism- They Should Just give us the benefits of EU membership that we valued without the messy bits we disliked. They Should Just quarantine the vulnerable during the pandemic was another. Or, on the left, They Should Just get the rich to pay more tax. Or, in this case, They Should Just stop coming over here.

    Trouble is, it's rarely as simple as Just Doing This. For taxes, it's totally fair to point out that if you overpluck the goose, it will fly away. That the nice bits about Europe depend on the messy plumbing. That the sausages are tasty but you don't want to see them being made.

    I'm not going to blame voters for wanting a simpler world, or for voting for it. But it's blooming irresponsible for opinion formers or wannabe leaders to pretend they can deliver one.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper.

    In my experience those who work in the private sector are more likely to see opportunities, whereas those in the public sector are more likely to see risks. It makes sense, given taking a job in the private sector is inherently riskier, but generally better rewarded.

    It is one of the main reasons why I abhor the growth of the role of the state. It tallies with a growth of risk aversion, stagnation and, ironically, the general enshittification (thanks @viewcode) of the common weal.

    Lots of those who work for the state will opine about difficulties, or overemphasise the compilications.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,875
    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    On topic Rayner should have made clearer the insult was from Nadine. That would have put her in the clear while reinforcing the divided Tories narrative.

    The trouble is jibes like this do stick, and Sunak rather like Major suffers from the perception he’s weak and liable to be bullied. No amount of talking tough on benefits scroungers or Rwanda can overcome that.

    May got some of the same thing after 2017. Dead woman walking etc. It’s hugely damaging politically.

    The dynamic was rather different with the next two. Boris never seemed weak, he just became more and more clearly a lying arsehole. He was still feared right up to the end. Truss’ weakness was of a different sort. She didn’t seem liable to bullying, indeed her thick skin is quite remarkable, rather she just seemed completely out of her depth.

    David Steel never really recovered from his Spitting Image manifestation.
    Whereas in a very British way his acceptance of a colleague he suspected as a child abuser is only tangential to his legacy.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,527
    On topic, Rayner does stray from time to time into playground insult territory, and she should aspire to do better as should a great number of MPs.

    It will have no impact on votes though.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,604

    FPT:

    Carnyx said:

    Icarus said:

    Icarus said:

    Moon Rabbit says:

    "Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. ....... The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening."

    I can see the headline: 50 Flown to Rwanda, 500 more come over the Channel

    Which rather suggests that the the government don’t actually want ANY flights to take off. They want to replicate the anger around Brexit with the anger that the Rwanda plan is being thwarted by the blob, and used that as Johnson used Brexit. So arguably if you want the Tories to lose, and you are involved in refugee claims in court, don’t block the flights…
    As you have outlined, there will be far more coming than going.
    Though some people (52%) actually thought that Brexit was a good idea, no one, well almost no one, thinks Rwanda is other than a very expensive gimmick.
    Well, that's not true:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/migrants-in-calais-if-they-send-me-to-rwanda-ill-kill-myself-l0fj7drcc

    There's a real fear it might work. Hence all the attacks on it by the UN, third sector and refugee charities. They are worried it will set a precedent.

    This explains their confused attack lines: they seamlessly switch from its terrible to it will make no difference at all and back again.
    Some of us simply find it an extraordinarily badly planned project with no realistic scope of working beyond a few hundred migrants a year. Horrendously expensive for the results.

    It's Groundnut Scheme level thinking.

    Once upon a time, Tories supported (a) prudence in public spending (b) the rule of law (UK) (c) the rule of law (international).

    Nah, it's Guardianista virtue-signalling circle-jerk masturbation for social and professional acceptance reasons.

    We all know this. So do you.
    The Conservatives are languishing in the polls and to work out why, I think it’s valuable to examine Casino Royale’s post here.

    First, CR argues by assertion, ‘it’s right because I say it’s right’. This echoes the Conservative government passing an act to say Rwanda is safe, irrespective of the facts.

    Secondly, CR tries to link the debate to the culture wars by throwing in “virtue-signalling”. The Tories have repeatedly tried the same, but it’s not proven popular with the voters.

    Thirdly, there’s no attempt at polite discourse here. It’s just straight to the insults, ‘owning the libs’. This is also failing to be attractive to the electorate.
    What a lot of rubbish. I've said that (a) the visceral reaction to it is because the UN, charities and refugees themselves fear it might be effective and that (b) that's because they favour open borders and have a strange sense of cultural relativism.

    Their real worry is that they know this offer might prove very popular with the voters, if it worked, and hence all the moves to strangle it at birth.

    If you think the same tough choices don't await SKS in a few months time then I've got a bridge to sell you.
    Can we pick this apart a little? "The UN, charities and refugees themselves fear it might be effective". Which bit of the UN, which charities etc? The UN very much wants to STOP mass refugee events and the crises they create. You suggest that they favour "open borders" the context of millions fleeing war and poverty and then ending up stuck in giant refugee camps being tended to by the UN. You think the UN actually want to be on the hook feeding millions of refugees? really?

    The key to this is "if it worked" and as all the experts in every related field have pointed out - it can't work because structurally its bonkers.

    You have linked the "deport them to Rwanda" policy as being opposed by a globalist cabal - the UN, charities, refugees - who apparently want refugees. So is their fear that every refugees globally might end up sent to Rwanda?

    Lets just look at the asylum seekers in the UK. There's c. 100,000 already here, with more arriving every day in sizeable numbers. So call it 120,000 on the basis that "Rwanda works" and people stop arriving.

    Rwanda can't take 120,000
    We can't process 120,000 through the courts
    We can't intern 120,000 prior to them going to court
    We can't process the 120,000's applications due to a lack of money and resources in the Home Office
    We can't keep track of 120,000 after booking their arrival. We lose them.

    So the rather basic problem with you/Leon endlessly championing the policy is that the policy was written in crayon to appeal to morons. You two aren't morons, yet suck it up like you are.

    Why?
    I can't remember who coined the term 'simplism', or applied it to political thinking, but there's a lot of it about.

    Basically, any argument that boils down to They Should Just... is simplism. Especially when you don't specify who They are. Brexit ended up being about simplism- They Should Just give us the benefits of EU membership that we valued without the messy bits we disliked. They Should Just quarantine the vulnerable during the pandemic was another. Or, on the left, They Should Just get the rich to pay more tax. Or, in this case, They Should Just stop coming over here.

    Trouble is, it's rarely as simple as Just Doing This. For taxes, it's totally fair to point out that if you overpluck the goose, it will fly away. That the nice bits about Europe depend on the messy plumbing. That the sausages are tasty but you don't want to see them being made.

    I'm not going to blame voters for wanting a simpler world, or for voting for it. But it's blooming irresponsible for opinion formers or wannabe leaders to pretend they can deliver one.
    I disagree with pretty much every bit of this post, and it's not surprising, because it goes to the heart of where I think we diverge politically. In almost all such cases, we are loftily informed that 'it isn't as simple as that' - but the simple solution under discussion is never tried.

    Crime is a one example - simply make the consequences of doing crime a bit worse than the benefits of doing crime, and crime will fall. 'Oh that's far too simplistic' we're told - 'the reasons for crime are vastly complex, involving social issues, family breakdown, poverty, inequality etc., and we must reject 'simple solutions' and 'tackle those other issues''. So the simple solution is never applied.

    The same is true of every other issue. I am all for trying a simple solution, it failing, and realising a more complex multilayered approach is needed. What I am not for is never trying that simple solution, for decades, because it's too simple.
  • Options
    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,368
    edited April 27
    On the question of height, some people are very sensitive...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgMcYaH05lE&t=16s
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,973
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Can we assume TSE is on the more petite size? 😂

    6ft
    That's probably around 5' 10 in reality then? :D
    Amazing what some expensive shoes can add…
  • Options
    Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,773
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Can we assume TSE is on the more petite size? 😂

    6ft
    With your legendary modesty, I expected another couple of inches above that.
    I recently bought a new pair of Hugo Boss trainers and I didn't realise they had platform soles, so it does add an extra 2-3 inches in height.
    Didn't realise. We believe you, boss.
    I see JohnO in a fortnight, he will be able to attest that these send me in to the 6ft 2/3 inch group.

    Edit - I need to check Gaucho's dress code before I wear these.
    Dress code? Definitely posh.

    Working class eateries are only concerned wtih feeding you, not how you appear.
    Don't they wear chaps in Gaucho?
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,609
    TimS said:

    FPT:

    Carnyx said:

    Icarus said:

    Icarus said:

    Moon Rabbit says:

    "Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. ....... The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening."

    I can see the headline: 50 Flown to Rwanda, 500 more come over the Channel

    Which rather suggests that the the government don’t actually want ANY flights to take off. They want to replicate the anger around Brexit with the anger that the Rwanda plan is being thwarted by the blob, and used that as Johnson used Brexit. So arguably if you want the Tories to lose, and you are involved in refugee claims in court, don’t block the flights…
    As you have outlined, there will be far more coming than going.
    Though some people (52%) actually thought that Brexit was a good idea, no one, well almost no one, thinks Rwanda is other than a very expensive gimmick.
    Well, that's not true:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/migrants-in-calais-if-they-send-me-to-rwanda-ill-kill-myself-l0fj7drcc

    There's a real fear it might work. Hence all the attacks on it by the UN, third sector and refugee charities. They are worried it will set a precedent.

    This explains their confused attack lines: they seamlessly switch from its terrible to it will make no difference at all and back again.
    Some of us simply find it an extraordinarily badly planned project with no realistic scope of working beyond a few hundred migrants a year. Horrendously expensive for the results.

    It's Groundnut Scheme level thinking.

    Once upon a time, Tories supported (a) prudence in public spending (b) the rule of law (UK) (c) the rule of law (international).

    Nah, it's Guardianista virtue-signalling circle-jerk masturbation for social and professional acceptance reasons.

    We all know this. So do you.
    The Conservatives are languishing in the polls and to work out why, I think it’s valuable to examine Casino Royale’s post here.

    First, CR argues by assertion, ‘it’s right because I say it’s right’. This echoes the Conservative government passing an act to say Rwanda is safe, irrespective of the facts.

    Secondly, CR tries to link the debate to the culture wars by throwing in “virtue-signalling”. The Tories have repeatedly tried the same, but it’s not proven popular with the voters.

    Thirdly, there’s no attempt at polite discourse here. It’s just straight to the insults, ‘owning the libs’. This is also failing to be attractive to the electorate.
    What a lot of rubbish. I've said that (a) the visceral reaction to it is because the UN, charities and refugees themselves fear it might be effective and that (b) that's because they favour open borders and have a strange sense of cultural relativism.

    Their real worry is that they know this offer might prove very popular with the voters, if it worked, and hence all the moves to strangle it at birth.

    If you think the same tough choices don't await SKS in a few months time then I've got a bridge to sell you.
    Can we pick this apart a little? "The UN, charities and refugees themselves fear it might be effective". Which bit of the UN, which charities etc? The UN very much wants to STOP mass refugee events and the crises they create. You suggest that they favour "open borders" the context of millions fleeing war and poverty and then ending up stuck in giant refugee camps being tended to by the UN. You think the UN actually want to be on the hook feeding millions of refugees? really?

    The key to this is "if it worked" and as all the experts in every related field have pointed out - it can't work because structurally its bonkers.

    You have linked the "deport them to Rwanda" policy as being opposed by a globalist cabal - the UN, charities, refugees - who apparently want refugees. So is their fear that every refugees globally might end up sent to Rwanda?

    Lets just look at the asylum seekers in the UK. There's c. 100,000 already here, with more arriving every day in sizeable numbers. So call it 120,000 on the basis that "Rwanda works" and people stop arriving.

    Rwanda can't take 120,000
    We can't process 120,000 through the courts
    We can't intern 120,000 prior to them going to court
    We can't process the 120,000's applications due to a lack of money and resources in the Home Office
    We can't keep track of 120,000 after booking their arrival. We lose them.

    So the rather basic problem with you/Leon endlessly championing the policy is that the policy was written in crayon to appeal to morons. You two aren't morons, yet suck it up like you are.

    Why?
    I can't remember who coined the term 'simplism', or applied it to political thinking, but there's a lot of it about.

    Basically, any argument that boils down to They Should Just... is simplism. Especially when you don't specify who They are. Brexit ended up being about simplism- They Should Just give us the benefits of EU membership that we valued without the messy bits we disliked. They Should Just quarantine the vulnerable during the pandemic was another. Or, on the left, They Should Just get the rich to pay more tax. Or, in this case, They Should Just stop coming over here.

    Trouble is, it's rarely as simple as Just Doing This. For taxes, it's totally fair to point out that if you overpluck the goose, it will fly away. That the nice bits about Europe depend on the messy plumbing. That the sausages are tasty but you don't want to see them being made.

    I'm not going to blame voters for wanting a simpler world, or for voting for it. But it's blooming irresponsible for opinion formers or wannabe leaders to pretend they can deliver one.
    Ah but by ruling out simplism and “they should just” and arguing the answer should always be nuanced are you not engaging in a form of simplism?

    Occasionally “they should just” does get to the heart of the matter. Usually when politicians have been faffing around but you already know what the eventual outcome will be. I would venture a few exceptions to the anti-simplism rule

    - They should just bloody build HS2
    - They should just call a general election now
    - They should just suspend / expel [name of politician who’s been caught doing something obviously dodgy]
    Absolutely. And we're all prone to it, because we all want a map of the world that fits in our head, so we have to simplify. And there are some things that are just about morals- do this, whatever the cost. Fighting Nazis, admitting your computer system is a pile of poo, resigning for having your hand in the till or other bits of anatomy where they shouldn't be.

    But a lot of the important questions are How questions. And simplism works by pretending that they don't exist.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,906

    FPT:

    Carnyx said:

    Icarus said:

    Icarus said:

    Moon Rabbit says:

    "Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. ....... The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening."

    I can see the headline: 50 Flown to Rwanda, 500 more come over the Channel

    Which rather suggests that the the government don’t actually want ANY flights to take off. They want to replicate the anger around Brexit with the anger that the Rwanda plan is being thwarted by the blob, and used that as Johnson used Brexit. So arguably if you want the Tories to lose, and you are involved in refugee claims in court, don’t block the flights…
    As you have outlined, there will be far more coming than going.
    Though some people (52%) actually thought that Brexit was a good idea, no one, well almost no one, thinks Rwanda is other than a very expensive gimmick.
    Well, that's not true:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/migrants-in-calais-if-they-send-me-to-rwanda-ill-kill-myself-l0fj7drcc

    There's a real fear it might work. Hence all the attacks on it by the UN, third sector and refugee charities. They are worried it will set a precedent.

    This explains their confused attack lines: they seamlessly switch from its terrible to it will make no difference at all and back again.
    Some of us simply find it an extraordinarily badly planned project with no realistic scope of working beyond a few hundred migrants a year. Horrendously expensive for the results.

    It's Groundnut Scheme level thinking.

    Once upon a time, Tories supported (a) prudence in public spending (b) the rule of law (UK) (c) the rule of law (international).

    Nah, it's Guardianista virtue-signalling circle-jerk masturbation for social and professional acceptance reasons.

    We all know this. So do you.
    The Conservatives are languishing in the polls and to work out why, I think it’s valuable to examine Casino Royale’s post here.

    First, CR argues by assertion, ‘it’s right because I say it’s right’. This echoes the Conservative government passing an act to say Rwanda is safe, irrespective of the facts.

    Secondly, CR tries to link the debate to the culture wars by throwing in “virtue-signalling”. The Tories have repeatedly tried the same, but it’s not proven popular with the voters.

    Thirdly, there’s no attempt at polite discourse here. It’s just straight to the insults, ‘owning the libs’. This is also failing to be attractive to the electorate.
    What a lot of rubbish. I've said that (a) the visceral reaction to it is because the UN, charities and refugees themselves fear it might be effective and that (b) that's because they favour open borders and have a strange sense of cultural relativism.

    Their real worry is that they know this offer might prove very popular with the voters, if it worked, and hence all the moves to strangle it at birth.

    If you think the same tough choices don't await SKS in a few months time then I've got a bridge to sell you.
    Can we pick this apart a little? "The UN, charities and refugees themselves fear it might be effective". Which bit of the UN, which charities etc? The UN very much wants to STOP mass refugee events and the crises they create. You suggest that they favour "open borders" the context of millions fleeing war and poverty and then ending up stuck in giant refugee camps being tended to by the UN. You think the UN actually want to be on the hook feeding millions of refugees? really?

    The key to this is "if it worked" and as all the experts in every related field have pointed out - it can't work because structurally its bonkers.

    You have linked the "deport them to Rwanda" policy as being opposed by a globalist cabal - the UN, charities, refugees - who apparently want refugees. So is their fear that every refugees globally might end up sent to Rwanda?

    Lets just look at the asylum seekers in the UK. There's c. 100,000 already here, with more arriving every day in sizeable numbers. So call it 120,000 on the basis that "Rwanda works" and people stop arriving.

    Rwanda can't take 120,000
    We can't process 120,000 through the courts
    We can't intern 120,000 prior to them going to court
    We can't process the 120,000's applications due to a lack of money and resources in the Home Office
    We can't keep track of 120,000 after booking their arrival. We lose them.

    So the rather basic problem with you/Leon endlessly championing the policy is that the policy was written in crayon to appeal to morons. You two aren't morons, yet suck it up like you are.

    Why?
    I can't remember who coined the term 'simplism', or applied it to political thinking, but there's a lot of it about.

    Basically, any argument that boils down to They Should Just... is simplism. Especially when you don't specify who They are. Brexit ended up being about simplism- They Should Just give us the benefits of EU membership that we valued without the messy bits we disliked. They Should Just quarantine the vulnerable during the pandemic was another. Or, on the left, They Should Just get the rich to pay more tax. Or, in this case, They Should Just stop coming over here.

    Trouble is, it's rarely as simple as Just Doing This. For taxes, it's totally fair to point out that if you overpluck the goose, it will fly away. That the nice bits about Europe depend on the messy plumbing. That the sausages are tasty but you don't want to see them being made.

    I'm not going to blame voters for wanting a simpler world, or for voting for it. But it's blooming irresponsible for opinion formers or wannabe leaders to pretend they can deliver one.
    I disagree with pretty much every bit of this post, and it's not surprising, because it goes to the heart of where I think we diverge politically. In almost all such cases, we are loftily informed that 'it isn't as simple as that' - but the simple solution under discussion is never tried.

    Crime is a one example - simply make the consequences of doing crime a bit worse than the benefits of doing crime, and crime will fall. 'Oh that's far too simplistic' we're told - 'the reasons for crime are vastly complex, involving social issues, family breakdown, poverty, inequality etc., and we must reject 'simple solutions' and 'tackle those other issues''. So the simple solution is never applied. ..

    The US laboratory has fairly clearly demonstrated that isn't true.

  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,176
    Sunak should turn it into a defence of imperial measures.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,079

    Sunak should turn it into a defence of imperial measures.

    Please god no, I find the occasional burst of focus by the government on imperial measure nostalgia to be bizarre and inexplicable.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,176
    kle4 said:

    Sunak should turn it into a defence of imperial measures.

    Please god no, I find the occasional burst of focus by the government on imperial measure nostalgia to be bizarre and inexplicable.
    Alternatively add size to the list of protected characteristics and have her prosecuted for committing a hate crime.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,607
    TimS said:

    Another miserable day dawns. It might get up to 12C if we’re lucky today. 10 tomorrow. Rain all afternoon and tomorrow morning. The joys of spring.

    Perhaps this will help?

    Wall-to-wall sunshine in the Crozon peninsula, Brittany. And warm

    I’m having a cappuccino and the traditional Breton cake, the “koign amman”



    Unlike the cider, and even the crepe, I can’t recommend the “koign amman”

    It’s some pastry apparently dipped in thick liquid sugar then deep fried. Intensely sweet and cracks your teeth, just about tolerable if you dip it in your coffee. Maybe
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,469
    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    Another miserable day dawns. It might get up to 12C if we’re lucky today. 10 tomorrow. Rain all afternoon and tomorrow morning. The joys of spring.

    I'm loving this chilly spring, though I assume farmers are not.
    We'll mainly all be begging for this kind of weather after the third week of 35+ degree temps later this summer.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,604
    Nigelb said:

    FPT:

    Carnyx said:

    Icarus said:

    Icarus said:

    Moon Rabbit says:

    "Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. ....... The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening."

    I can see the headline: 50 Flown to Rwanda, 500 more come over the Channel

    Which rather suggests that the the government don’t actually want ANY flights to take off. They want to replicate the anger around Brexit with the anger that the Rwanda plan is being thwarted by the blob, and used that as Johnson used Brexit. So arguably if you want the Tories to lose, and you are involved in refugee claims in court, don’t block the flights…
    As you have outlined, there will be far more coming than going.
    Though some people (52%) actually thought that Brexit was a good idea, no one, well almost no one, thinks Rwanda is other than a very expensive gimmick.
    Well, that's not true:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/migrants-in-calais-if-they-send-me-to-rwanda-ill-kill-myself-l0fj7drcc

    There's a real fear it might work. Hence all the attacks on it by the UN, third sector and refugee charities. They are worried it will set a precedent.

    This explains their confused attack lines: they seamlessly switch from its terrible to it will make no difference at all and back again.
    Some of us simply find it an extraordinarily badly planned project with no realistic scope of working beyond a few hundred migrants a year. Horrendously expensive for the results.

    It's Groundnut Scheme level thinking.

    Once upon a time, Tories supported (a) prudence in public spending (b) the rule of law (UK) (c) the rule of law (international).

    Nah, it's Guardianista virtue-signalling circle-jerk masturbation for social and professional acceptance reasons.

    We all know this. So do you.
    The Conservatives are languishing in the polls and to work out why, I think it’s valuable to examine Casino Royale’s post here.

    First, CR argues by assertion, ‘it’s right because I say it’s right’. This echoes the Conservative government passing an act to say Rwanda is safe, irrespective of the facts.

    Secondly, CR tries to link the debate to the culture wars by throwing in “virtue-signalling”. The Tories have repeatedly tried the same, but it’s not proven popular with the voters.

    Thirdly, there’s no attempt at polite discourse here. It’s just straight to the insults, ‘owning the libs’. This is also failing to be attractive to the electorate.
    What a lot of rubbish. I've said that (a) the visceral reaction to it is because the UN, charities and refugees themselves fear it might be effective and that (b) that's because they favour open borders and have a strange sense of cultural relativism.

    Their real worry is that they know this offer might prove very popular with the voters, if it worked, and hence all the moves to strangle it at birth.

    If you think the same tough choices don't await SKS in a few months time then I've got a bridge to sell you.
    Can we pick this apart a little? "The UN, charities and refugees themselves fear it might be effective". Which bit of the UN, which charities etc? The UN very much wants to STOP mass refugee events and the crises they create. You suggest that they favour "open borders" the context of millions fleeing war and poverty and then ending up stuck in giant refugee camps being tended to by the UN. You think the UN actually want to be on the hook feeding millions of refugees? really?

    The key to this is "if it worked" and as all the experts in every related field have pointed out - it can't work because structurally its bonkers.

    You have linked the "deport them to Rwanda" policy as being opposed by a globalist cabal - the UN, charities, refugees - who apparently want refugees. So is their fear that every refugees globally might end up sent to Rwanda?

    Lets just look at the asylum seekers in the UK. There's c. 100,000 already here, with more arriving every day in sizeable numbers. So call it 120,000 on the basis that "Rwanda works" and people stop arriving.

    Rwanda can't take 120,000
    We can't process 120,000 through the courts
    We can't intern 120,000 prior to them going to court
    We can't process the 120,000's applications due to a lack of money and resources in the Home Office
    We can't keep track of 120,000 after booking their arrival. We lose them.

    So the rather basic problem with you/Leon endlessly championing the policy is that the policy was written in crayon to appeal to morons. You two aren't morons, yet suck it up like you are.

    Why?
    I can't remember who coined the term 'simplism', or applied it to political thinking, but there's a lot of it about.

    Basically, any argument that boils down to They Should Just... is simplism. Especially when you don't specify who They are. Brexit ended up being about simplism- They Should Just give us the benefits of EU membership that we valued without the messy bits we disliked. They Should Just quarantine the vulnerable during the pandemic was another. Or, on the left, They Should Just get the rich to pay more tax. Or, in this case, They Should Just stop coming over here.

    Trouble is, it's rarely as simple as Just Doing This. For taxes, it's totally fair to point out that if you overpluck the goose, it will fly away. That the nice bits about Europe depend on the messy plumbing. That the sausages are tasty but you don't want to see them being made.

    I'm not going to blame voters for wanting a simpler world, or for voting for it. But it's blooming irresponsible for opinion formers or wannabe leaders to pretend they can deliver one.
    I disagree with pretty much every bit of this post, and it's not surprising, because it goes to the heart of where I think we diverge politically. In almost all such cases, we are loftily informed that 'it isn't as simple as that' - but the simple solution under discussion is never tried.

    Crime is a one example - simply make the consequences of doing crime a bit worse than the benefits of doing crime, and crime will fall. 'Oh that's far too simplistic' we're told - 'the reasons for crime are vastly complex, involving social issues, family breakdown, poverty, inequality etc., and we must reject 'simple solutions' and 'tackle those other issues''. So the simple solution is never applied. ..

    The US laboratory has fairly clearly demonstrated that isn't true.

    A quick Google tells me that crime has been falling in the US since the 90's, so I am not sure that they can be labelled a failure of severe policing. Perhaps you're talking more specifically about death row and its failure to discourage murder.
  • Options
    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,721
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Can we assume TSE is on the more petite size? 😂

    6ft
    That's probably around 5' 10 in reality then? :D
    I'm the same age as TSE.

    Is it bad (or good) that I now think in centimetres for height (I'm trying to shake off imperial in almost everything now - thinking in kg for weight....)?
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,875
    Mortimer said:

    FPT:

    Carnyx said:

    Icarus said:

    Icarus said:

    Moon Rabbit says:

    "Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. ....... The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening."

    I can see the headline: 50 Flown to Rwanda, 500 more come over the Channel

    Which rather suggests that the the government don’t actually want ANY flights to take off. They want to replicate the anger around Brexit with the anger that the Rwanda plan is being thwarted by the blob, and used that as Johnson used Brexit. So arguably if you want the Tories to lose, and you are involved in refugee claims in court, don’t block the flights…
    As you have outlined, there will be far more coming than going.
    Though some people (52%) actually thought that Brexit was a good idea, no one, well almost no one, thinks Rwanda is other than a very expensive gimmick.
    Well, that's not true:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/migrants-in-calais-if-they-send-me-to-rwanda-ill-kill-myself-l0fj7drcc

    There's a real fear it might work. Hence all the attacks on it by the UN, third sector and refugee charities. They are worried it will set a precedent.

    This explains their confused attack lines: they seamlessly switch from its terrible to it will make no difference at all and back again.
    Some of us simply find it an extraordinarily badly planned project with no realistic scope of working beyond a few hundred migrants a year. Horrendously expensive for the results.

    It's Groundnut Scheme level thinking.

    Once upon a time, Tories supported (a) prudence in public spending (b) the rule of law (UK) (c) the rule of law (international).

    Nah, it's Guardianista virtue-signalling circle-jerk masturbation for social and professional acceptance reasons.

    We all know this. So do you.
    The Conservatives are languishing in the polls and to work out why, I think it’s valuable to examine Casino Royale’s post here.

    First, CR argues by assertion, ‘it’s right because I say it’s right’. This echoes the Conservative government passing an act to say Rwanda is safe, irrespective of the facts.

    Secondly, CR tries to link the debate to the culture wars by throwing in “virtue-signalling”. The Tories have repeatedly tried the same, but it’s not proven popular with the voters.

    Thirdly, there’s no attempt at polite discourse here. It’s just straight to the insults, ‘owning the libs’. This is also failing to be attractive to the electorate.
    What a lot of rubbish. I've said that (a) the visceral reaction to it is because the UN, charities and refugees themselves fear it might be effective and that (b) that's because they favour open borders and have a strange sense of cultural relativism.

    Their real worry is that they know this offer might prove very popular with the voters, if it worked, and hence all the moves to strangle it at birth.

    If you think the same tough choices don't await SKS in a few months time then I've got a bridge to sell you.
    Can we pick this apart a little? "The UN, charities and refugees themselves fear it might be effective". Which bit of the UN, which charities etc? The UN very much wants to STOP mass refugee events and the crises they create. You suggest that they favour "open borders" the context of millions fleeing war and poverty and then ending up stuck in giant refugee camps being tended to by the UN. You think the UN actually want to be on the hook feeding millions of refugees? really?

    The key to this is "if it worked" and as all the experts in every related field have pointed out - it can't work because structurally its bonkers.

    You have linked the "deport them to Rwanda" policy as being opposed by a globalist cabal - the UN, charities, refugees - who apparently want refugees. So is their fear that every refugees globally might end up sent to Rwanda?

    Lets just look at the asylum seekers in the UK. There's c. 100,000 already here, with more arriving every day in sizeable numbers. So call it 120,000 on the basis that "Rwanda works" and people stop arriving.

    Rwanda can't take 120,000
    We can't process 120,000 through the courts
    We can't intern 120,000 prior to them going to court
    We can't process the 120,000's applications due to a lack of money and resources in the Home Office
    We can't keep track of 120,000 after booking their arrival. We lose them.

    So the rather basic problem with you/Leon endlessly championing the policy is that the policy was written in crayon to appeal to morons. You two aren't morons, yet suck it up like you are.

    Why?
    I can't remember who coined the term 'simplism', or applied it to political thinking, but there's a lot of it about.

    Basically, any argument that boils down to They Should Just... is simplism. Especially when you don't specify who They are. Brexit ended up being about simplism- They Should Just give us the benefits of EU membership that we valued without the messy bits we disliked. They Should Just quarantine the vulnerable during the pandemic was another. Or, on the left, They Should Just get the rich to pay more tax. Or, in this case, They Should Just stop coming over here.

    Trouble is, it's rarely as simple as Just Doing This. For taxes, it's totally fair to point out that if you overpluck the goose, it will fly away. That the nice bits about Europe depend on the messy plumbing. That the sausages are tasty but you don't want to see them being made.

    I'm not going to blame voters for wanting a simpler world, or for voting for it. But it's blooming irresponsible for opinion formers or wannabe leaders to pretend they can deliver one.
    Up to a point, Lord Copper.

    In my experience those who work in the private sector are more likely to see opportunities, whereas those in the public sector are more likely to see risks. It makes sense, given taking a job in the private sector is inherently riskier, but generally better rewarded.

    It is one of the main reasons why I abhor the growth of the role of the state. It tallies with a growth of risk aversion, stagnation and, ironically, the general enshittification (thanks @viewcode) of the common weal.

    Lots of those who work for the state will opine about difficulties, or overemphasise the compilications.
    Isn't that mostly because they do different things. Put me in charge of making widgets at a better price than my competitors (or distributing or advertising them) I'll take plenty of chances. Put me in charge of the NHS cancer budget, prison reform, or defence procurement and I'll end up more cautious, rightly so imo.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,328
    I’d guess if he wasn’t a smirking multi millionaire bouncing about with misplaced self confidence while fucking everything up, I would care more about size based insults towards him.
    In Glasgow, wee man is a pretty neutral, even affectionate, term.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,861
    Nigelb said:

    FPT:

    Carnyx said:

    Icarus said:

    Icarus said:

    Moon Rabbit says:

    "Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. ....... The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening."

    I can see the headline: 50 Flown to Rwanda, 500 more come over the Channel

    Which rather suggests that the the government don’t actually want ANY flights to take off. They want to replicate the anger around Brexit with the anger that the Rwanda plan is being thwarted by the blob, and used that as Johnson used Brexit. So arguably if you want the Tories to lose, and you are involved in refugee claims in court, don’t block the flights…
    As you have outlined, there will be far more coming than going.
    Though some people (52%) actually thought that Brexit was a good idea, no one, well almost no one, thinks Rwanda is other than a very expensive gimmick.
    Well, that's not true:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/migrants-in-calais-if-they-send-me-to-rwanda-ill-kill-myself-l0fj7drcc

    There's a real fear it might work. Hence all the attacks on it by the UN, third sector and refugee charities. They are worried it will set a precedent.

    This explains their confused attack lines: they seamlessly switch from its terrible to it will make no difference at all and back again.
    Some of us simply find it an extraordinarily badly planned project with no realistic scope of working beyond a few hundred migrants a year. Horrendously expensive for the results.

    It's Groundnut Scheme level thinking.

    Once upon a time, Tories supported (a) prudence in public spending (b) the rule of law (UK) (c) the rule of law (international).

    Nah, it's Guardianista virtue-signalling circle-jerk masturbation for social and professional acceptance reasons.

    We all know this. So do you.
    The Conservatives are languishing in the polls and to work out why, I think it’s valuable to examine Casino Royale’s post here.

    First, CR argues by assertion, ‘it’s right because I say it’s right’. This echoes the Conservative government passing an act to say Rwanda is safe, irrespective of the facts.

    Secondly, CR tries to link the debate to the culture wars by throwing in “virtue-signalling”. The Tories have repeatedly tried the same, but it’s not proven popular with the voters.

    Thirdly, there’s no attempt at polite discourse here. It’s just straight to the insults, ‘owning the libs’. This is also failing to be attractive to the electorate.
    What a lot of rubbish. I've said that (a) the visceral reaction to it is because the UN, charities and refugees themselves fear it might be effective and that (b) that's because they favour open borders and have a strange sense of cultural relativism.

    Their real worry is that they know this offer might prove very popular with the voters, if it worked, and hence all the moves to strangle it at birth.

    If you think the same tough choices don't await SKS in a few months time then I've got a bridge to sell you.
    Can we pick this apart a little? "The UN, charities and refugees themselves fear it might be effective". Which bit of the UN, which charities etc? The UN very much wants to STOP mass refugee events and the crises they create. You suggest that they favour "open borders" the context of millions fleeing war and poverty and then ending up stuck in giant refugee camps being tended to by the UN. You think the UN actually want to be on the hook feeding millions of refugees? really?

    The key to this is "if it worked" and as all the experts in every related field have pointed out - it can't work because structurally its bonkers.

    You have linked the "deport them to Rwanda" policy as being opposed by a globalist cabal - the UN, charities, refugees - who apparently want refugees. So is their fear that every refugees globally might end up sent to Rwanda?

    Lets just look at the asylum seekers in the UK. There's c. 100,000 already here, with more arriving every day in sizeable numbers. So call it 120,000 on the basis that "Rwanda works" and people stop arriving.

    Rwanda can't take 120,000
    We can't process 120,000 through the courts
    We can't intern 120,000 prior to them going to court
    We can't process the 120,000's applications due to a lack of money and resources in the Home Office
    We can't keep track of 120,000 after booking their arrival. We lose them.

    So the rather basic problem with you/Leon endlessly championing the policy is that the policy was written in crayon to appeal to morons. You two aren't morons, yet suck it up like you are.

    Why?
    I can't remember who coined the term 'simplism', or applied it to political thinking, but there's a lot of it about.

    Basically, any argument that boils down to They Should Just... is simplism. Especially when you don't specify who They are. Brexit ended up being about simplism- They Should Just give us the benefits of EU membership that we valued without the messy bits we disliked. They Should Just quarantine the vulnerable during the pandemic was another. Or, on the left, They Should Just get the rich to pay more tax. Or, in this case, They Should Just stop coming over here.

    Trouble is, it's rarely as simple as Just Doing This. For taxes, it's totally fair to point out that if you overpluck the goose, it will fly away. That the nice bits about Europe depend on the messy plumbing. That the sausages are tasty but you don't want to see them being made.

    I'm not going to blame voters for wanting a simpler world, or for voting for it. But it's blooming irresponsible for opinion formers or wannabe leaders to pretend they can deliver one.
    I disagree with pretty much every bit of this post, and it's not surprising, because it goes to the heart of where I think we diverge politically. In almost all such cases, we are loftily informed that 'it isn't as simple as that' - but the simple solution under discussion is never tried.

    Crime is a one example - simply make the consequences of doing crime a bit worse than the benefits of doing crime, and crime will fall. 'Oh that's far too simplistic' we're told - 'the reasons for crime are vastly complex, involving social issues, family breakdown, poverty, inequality etc., and we must reject 'simple solutions' and 'tackle those other issues''. So the simple solution is never applied. ..

    The US laboratory has fairly clearly demonstrated that isn't true.

    You don’t have to go all the way to the US. In the UK we’ve tried tougher sentencing multiple times. In fact one of the issues with our crime policy is it’s basically a sentencing policy. To my mind sentencing is too distant from the actual commission of the crime, too abstract.

    I do think the stats show some fairly simple answers to vast swathes of crime. Tightening up security, making it harder to nick stuff, and ensuring criminals actually get caught by following up on reports, all shown time and time again to work. Why did everyone start stealing Land Rovers? Because their security was shit.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,604

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Can we assume TSE is on the more petite size? 😂

    6ft
    That's probably around 5' 10 in reality then? :D
    I'm the same age as TSE.

    Is it bad (or good) that I now think in centimetres for height (I'm trying to shake off imperial in almost everything now - thinking in kg for weight....)?
    It's not morally bad, though it seems a waste of effort. Stone is a great measure if weight. It's substantial enough to be meaningful 'I need to lose a stone and a half'. Nobody needs to lose a kilo. Some people could shit a kilo in a single setting. As for cm and height, that strikes me as daft.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,469
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Another miserable day dawns. It might get up to 12C if we’re lucky today. 10 tomorrow. Rain all afternoon and tomorrow morning. The joys of spring.

    Perhaps this will help?

    Wall-to-wall sunshine in the Crozon peninsula, Brittany. And warm

    I’m having a cappuccino and the traditional Breton cake, the “koign amman”



    Unlike the cider, and even the crepe, I can’t recommend the “koign amman”

    It’s some pastry apparently dipped in thick liquid sugar then deep fried. Intensely sweet and cracks your teeth, just about tolerable if you dip it in your coffee. Maybe
    Not sure that sounds like it will help you lose further weight!! :smiley:
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,604
    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPT:

    Carnyx said:

    Icarus said:

    Icarus said:

    Moon Rabbit says:

    "Also in the campaign period at least 1 flight will take off for Rwanda, perhaps more with one on eve of polling. ....... The Rwanda flights will return Ref voters back to the Conservatives. You can say recent polling on Rwanda doesn’t suggest the Rwanda flights will generate a stampede of Ref back to Con, and I will laugh at you because that hypothetical polling is a poor predictive measure for how humans radically change their views once elections are called and Rwanda flights are happening."

    I can see the headline: 50 Flown to Rwanda, 500 more come over the Channel

    Which rather suggests that the the government don’t actually want ANY flights to take off. They want to replicate the anger around Brexit with the anger that the Rwanda plan is being thwarted by the blob, and used that as Johnson used Brexit. So arguably if you want the Tories to lose, and you are involved in refugee claims in court, don’t block the flights…
    As you have outlined, there will be far more coming than going.
    Though some people (52%) actually thought that Brexit was a good idea, no one, well almost no one, thinks Rwanda is other than a very expensive gimmick.
    Well, that's not true:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/migrants-in-calais-if-they-send-me-to-rwanda-ill-kill-myself-l0fj7drcc

    There's a real fear it might work. Hence all the attacks on it by the UN, third sector and refugee charities. They are worried it will set a precedent.

    This explains their confused attack lines: they seamlessly switch from its terrible to it will make no difference at all and back again.
    Some of us simply find it an extraordinarily badly planned project with no realistic scope of working beyond a few hundred migrants a year. Horrendously expensive for the results.

    It's Groundnut Scheme level thinking.

    Once upon a time, Tories supported (a) prudence in public spending (b) the rule of law (UK) (c) the rule of law (international).

    Nah, it's Guardianista virtue-signalling circle-jerk masturbation for social and professional acceptance reasons.

    We all know this. So do you.
    The Conservatives are languishing in the polls and to work out why, I think it’s valuable to examine Casino Royale’s post here.

    First, CR argues by assertion, ‘it’s right because I say it’s right’. This echoes the Conservative government passing an act to say Rwanda is safe, irrespective of the facts.

    Secondly, CR tries to link the debate to the culture wars by throwing in “virtue-signalling”. The Tories have repeatedly tried the same, but it’s not proven popular with the voters.

    Thirdly, there’s no attempt at polite discourse here. It’s just straight to the insults, ‘owning the libs’. This is also failing to be attractive to the electorate.
    What a lot of rubbish. I've said that (a) the visceral reaction to it is because the UN, charities and refugees themselves fear it might be effective and that (b) that's because they favour open borders and have a strange sense of cultural relativism.

    Their real worry is that they know this offer might prove very popular with the voters, if it worked, and hence all the moves to strangle it at birth.

    If you think the same tough choices don't await SKS in a few months time then I've got a bridge to sell you.
    Can we pick this apart a little? "The UN, charities and refugees themselves fear it might be effective". Which bit of the UN, which charities etc? The UN very much wants to STOP mass refugee events and the crises they create. You suggest that they favour "open borders" the context of millions fleeing war and poverty and then ending up stuck in giant refugee camps being tended to by the UN. You think the UN actually want to be on the hook feeding millions of refugees? really?

    The key to this is "if it worked" and as all the experts in every related field have pointed out - it can't work because structurally its bonkers.

    You have linked the "deport them to Rwanda" policy as being opposed by a globalist cabal - the UN, charities, refugees - who apparently want refugees. So is their fear that every refugees globally might end up sent to Rwanda?

    Lets just look at the asylum seekers in the UK. There's c. 100,000 already here, with more arriving every day in sizeable numbers. So call it 120,000 on the basis that "Rwanda works" and people stop arriving.

    Rwanda can't take 120,000
    We can't process 120,000 through the courts
    We can't intern 120,000 prior to them going to court
    We can't process the 120,000's applications due to a lack of money and resources in the Home Office
    We can't keep track of 120,000 after booking their arrival. We lose them.

    So the rather basic problem with you/Leon endlessly championing the policy is that the policy was written in crayon to appeal to morons. You two aren't morons, yet suck it up like you are.

    Why?
    I can't remember who coined the term 'simplism', or applied it to political thinking, but there's a lot of it about.

    Basically, any argument that boils down to They Should Just... is simplism. Especially when you don't specify who They are. Brexit ended up being about simplism- They Should Just give us the benefits of EU membership that we valued without the messy bits we disliked. They Should Just quarantine the vulnerable during the pandemic was another. Or, on the left, They Should Just get the rich to pay more tax. Or, in this case, They Should Just stop coming over here.

    Trouble is, it's rarely as simple as Just Doing This. For taxes, it's totally fair to point out that if you overpluck the goose, it will fly away. That the nice bits about Europe depend on the messy plumbing. That the sausages are tasty but you don't want to see them being made.

    I'm not going to blame voters for wanting a simpler world, or for voting for it. But it's blooming irresponsible for opinion formers or wannabe leaders to pretend they can deliver one.
    I disagree with pretty much every bit of this post, and it's not surprising, because it goes to the heart of where I think we diverge politically. In almost all such cases, we are loftily informed that 'it isn't as simple as that' - but the simple solution under discussion is never tried.

    Crime is a one example - simply make the consequences of doing crime a bit worse than the benefits of doing crime, and crime will fall. 'Oh that's far too simplistic' we're told - 'the reasons for crime are vastly complex, involving social issues, family breakdown, poverty, inequality etc., and we must reject 'simple solutions' and 'tackle those other issues''. So the simple solution is never applied. ..

    The US laboratory has fairly clearly demonstrated that isn't true.

    You don’t have to go all the way to the US. In the UK we’ve tried tougher sentencing multiple times. In fact one of the issues with our crime policy is it’s basically a sentencing policy. To my mind sentencing is too distant from the actual commission of the crime, too abstract.

    I do think the stats show some fairly simple answers to vast swathes of crime. Tightening up security, making it harder to nick stuff, and ensuring criminals actually get caught by following up on reports, all shown time and time again to work. Why did everyone start stealing Land Rovers? Because their security was shit.
    What makes you think I am talking about sentencing in isolation? You have to be arrested and charged before you can be sentenced. If there's no arrest, there's no deterrent, and the crime proliferates. What you're recommending is very much part of what I'm saying.
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