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Sunak’s legacy – politicalbetting.com
Sunak’s legacy – politicalbetting.com
''The fate of this government was sealed in two six-week periods… Boris Johnson's interpretation of the covid regulations and the Liz Truss fiscal event.''Conservatives need a well-proven, effective campaigner who could change this 'near-impossible situation',@JohnCurticeOnTV… pic.twitter.com/7bsmgKDS4H
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Sums up the tory predicament and they’re not getting out of it this side of the election.
I know a lot of people just wishing now to get it over with. That’s one of the reasons I think things could get worse for them as the year progresses.
https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1777379338574352399?t=fntRFPURLkq0ipbyL9cfSQ&s=19
1) not many Reform candidates standing, so not many Reform votes accumulated.
2) it's the national party rather than local Conservatives that are deeply unpopular.
3) LDs, Greens and Independents likely to have a good night as they have much better prospects in council than national elections. This will often be at the expense of Labour.
Overall these will tend to inflate Tory vote share and suppress Labour share and deliver false hope to Sunak.
How long will it be before the Lib Dems are loathed in Horsham... strikes me the seeds of discontent are already present.
I wonder if it might prompt Sunak to go for June? I doubt he will because he is a ditherer, eclipsing even Theresa May.
RNC Chair Michael Whatley says the quiet part loud on Maria Bartiromo's show and portrays Ukraine as an "aggressive" adversary of the US
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1776986542038192360
But how they can prevent appropriate medical intervention in a situation like this is beyond me
But Bartiromo was unimpressive on not calling him out on it
I saw what you did there..
Oh well, I'd better pay my council tax then...
https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/list-total-solar.html
For some time I’ve had an eye on either the August 2026 or August 2027 ones, partly because of the potential for cloudless conditions.
I missed a very good chance a few years ago in Indonesia through messing up my travel. I would definitely like to see a total solar eclipse.
The only reason BoZo pursued it was to get the crown, which he then befouled.
3) the broken nature of the tory party has become clear to all > you don't know if you are voting for a big state one nationer, a small state low tax libertarian or a jingoistic ethnonationalist and it is clear to the electorate that they cannot collaborate sufficiently to govern the country.
4) the institutions of the country have become so dysfunctional (due to compounding bad governance) that it cannot be ignored.
True, BJ and Truss were very very bad, but it goes beyond just that. It seems that the electorate and the press in general (even the times and the telegraph) has assessed the last 14 years as a whole and determined it to be a total failure, which has revealed the illusory nature of right wing political assumptions.
Brexit and British exceptionalism is clearly dying. It simply has no credibility. National experiences since 2016 have totally nixed that notion.
The idea that individual hard work is enough makes no sense if there are structural impediments to social mobility.
Building a society around 1 generational cohort (boomers) and their desire to live off passive rent while everybody under 55 is taxed to the hilt on work won't fly, especially as the boomer cohort is irreversibly contracting due to demography. The numerical possibility of millenials to cause a changing of the guard has erased voting apathy among millenials.
The end of globalisation and the American world order has recontextualised britain and its security outlook and changed the priorities of its people. The global mood is simply changing
Once the inevitable election defeat occurs then clearly new leadership will be necessary, but any candidate who doesn’t tell the membership the truths they need to hear isn’t going to be worth bothering with. We now have object lessons from either side of the political divide in the dangers of allowing members too much say in the choice of leader. If you look at the experience of both parties since giving members their head in leadership elections it’s a succession of absolute duds with the very occasional half decent choice.
First there should have been a specific deal to vote on, then you vote.
Having a referendum on simply leaving or not leaving was voting on having a problem or not.
I think the referendum was only ever meant to be a kind of theatrics to destroy ukip. Cameron and even the populists never ever thought it would come to this. It was never meant to happen. And yet here we are ..... due to careless tory politics.
Brexit has been an unmitigated disaster for Britain.
Unfortunately it didn’t suit the political hardliners, illustrating the point that Brexit was never about the economic benefits for Britain.
True, I’ve occasionally used the word ‘gammon’ with equal opprobrium, but I do so sparingly and only when riled.
There are plenty from either demographic who have worked hard and given good service. The systemic problems of this country cannot be laid at the feet of one or other group and we risk falling into the trap of what I mentioned here yesterday, namely scapegoating.
The purgatory we are in now is we lost all the benefits of being a member and there are no benefits of being a third country.
We spent billions on customs facilities we will never use.
We are weaker, economically and politically then we were.
We elected a Parliament who committed to get it done, and they are a collection of incompetent idiots, nutters, fruitcakes and swivel-eyed loons, not to mention the appalling behaviour and morals.
Where, exactly, is the "better"?
Travellers have been ordered to leave a Tesco car park in Leyland.
A fleet of caravans moved onto the Tesco Extra car park in Towngate on Sunday afternoon, close to the petrol station.
It was reported to Lancashire Police and officers visited the group last night. However, the car park is private land and legal efforts must be taken to remove them.
The Tesco website says parking at the Leyland superstore is free and unlimited, but is subject to conditions.
Petrol - pay at pump only
As a temporary measure, the supermarket’s petrol station is restricting payments to card only at the pumps. Cash will not be accepted until further notice, said staff.
Tesco were approached for comment.
https://www.lep.co.uk/news/traffic-and-travel/travellers-move-onto-tesco-car-park-petrol-station-goes-card-only-4583245
In the East Midlands it wasn't a total eclipse like the West Country, but as I recall we had clear skies so a better view.
What we *should* have done was have a vote on the Lisbon Treaty.
But Gordon Brown had a cunning plan…
HTH
At the margin there is a debate on trade policy. But fundamentally the debate was whether the economic benefits were worth the political and social (net) costs.
The electorate, in their great wisdom, decided they weren’t.
I hope after the election that this country will move on from these social divisions and, albeit gradually, we begin to work together with greater mutual respect, understanding, and cohesion. Certainly we need to see an end to this 'anti-woke' and 'anti-gammon’ hatred.
The reason I don’t enter the bear pit on here about transgenderism is that I don’t believe it’s the right context for an informed and well-mannered, open-minded, discussion. This despite being nationally recognised on the subject. And this is a political betting forum.
In years to come I believe we will look back on the current obsession with trans issues, like Rwanda, as psychotic.
Tory members picked IDS, Cameron, Boris and Truss. Labour members picked Kinnock, Smith, Blair, Corbyn and Starmer and David Miliband (the unions picked Ed). It is a myth MPs always get it right and members always wrong
Prior to the vote everything was blamed on the EU. Now everything is blamed on Brexit.
There have been a number of external shocks since 2016/2020. Brexit’s impact has been marginal in the scheme of things.
“Even Politicians Are Wearing Sambas Now,” wails a despairing headline in the American menswear bible GQ. Later, GQ’s British website follows up with a second column on the same subject, because that’s how important this is. “Can Rishi Sunak leave the Adidas Samba alone, please?” pleads the writer, but it’s far, far too late.
In The Telegraph, a columnist describes a friend texting to say his own are about to be burnt. You know things are bleak when you’re less cool than the friend of a Telegraph columnist. It’s no better in The Guardian, where trends in trainers are traditionally considered at least as important as, for example, wars. Poor Rishi. This is how bad it’s got. We’ve reached the stage where he can’t even wear shoes.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/its-not-about-the-trainers-rishi-its-just-over-lzgl9bqrg
If he had said “Russia” or “Russia in Ukraine” then we wouldn’t be having this discussion.
Sometimes a misspeak is just a misspeak.
Since neither have appeared, they are entitle to believe they were lied to, and change their minds
Depending on execution (of course), it's not the worst of ideas.
Now everything can be pinned on the Government which is problematic when its obvious stupidity...
🥴
Given that, Boris's throwing bricks at TMay in 2018 and 2019 shows how poor hos judgement of the national interest was.
Call me old fashioned, but I don't think a man deserves much credit for solving a problem that has largely been created by his own selfish opportunism.
Sunak has, sadly, proved to be another Gordon Brown: desperate for the top job but with no idea whatsoever of what to do with it when he got it. We can only hope that Starmer does not turn out to be the same.
https://www.techopedia.com/apple-unveils-ferret-an-open-source-genai-for-vision-language-tasks
A rather silly throwaway by Taz with whom I normally have friendly disagreements, and occasional agreements.
"David Cameron meets Donald Trump in Florida ahead of Blinken talks - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68767194
"Britain’s GDP per head has grown just 3.8 per cent since the referendum, while the EU’s has grown by 8.5 per cent."
https://www.newstatesman.com/chart-of-the-day/2022/06/uk-economy-fallen-behind-eu-since-brexit
I can see why you would want to argue the way you have, nobody wants to admit they were wrong.
https://res.cloudinary.com/nimblefins/image/upload/c_limit,dpr_2.0,f_auto,h_1600,q_auto,w_1600/v1/UK/economy/Average_financial_wealth_by_age_UK
"over-50s now hold an eye-watering 78 per cent of all the UK's privately held housing wealth, with over-65s, the wealthiest age group, owning property worth a whopping £2.587 trillion net."
https://www.standard.co.uk/homesandproperty/property-news/baby-boomers-property-wealth-uk-london-generation-property-gap-b1077686.html#:~:text=This data shows that over,whopping £2.587 trillion net.
This is not, I swear, to be a column about shoes, but we’ve had three paragraphs on them already so, hey, in for a penny loafer. So, recall that in 2022, Sunak was slammed for wearing a pair of £335 Common Projects sneakers, and Nadine Dorries once had a go at him for some £450 Prada loafers. The Samba, by contrast, is a notably populist trainer, yours for a mere £90. Sorry, I drifted into mad fashion grammar there; let’s clarify, you do get two. But he’d thought about this. There was a Shoe Strategy. And it went horribly wrong.
Small picture, the shoes. Big picture, everything. Polls are sliding, even when you’d think they can go no lower. Flagship policies — the cut to national insurance — land to utter public indifference. Unforced errors abound. This weekend, the party withdrew a bizarre poster campaign which boasted “Britain Is the Second Most Powerful Country In The World” and showed Sunak next to a losing football team that is English rather than British anyway, a fighter jet we largely buy from America, and a Swiss/South Korean container ship. Why any container ship? Have we fierce patriotic pride in our container ships? Has somebody been sniffing glue?
A democracy that can't change its mind ceases to be a democracy, as David Davis said.
I guess you chose not to highlight the last 2 years because of reasons?
I think Cameron's renegotiation was better than May's deal. And May's deal was better than Boris's. But at least we now have a deal where we can start to try to reverse some of the harm that the whole episode has caused.
I suspect that Brenda from Bristol might want a word with you though
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=H6-IQAdFU3w
The various Brexit parties struggled to win a single seat in Parliament; the same is likely to be true of any movement built around rejoining.
Ask Nigel Farage for advice.
We keep not implementing anything.
We built infrastructure for a "known" state we don't have and never will.
We are still in purgatory.
This is the Bad Place...
https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/housing-needs-of-young-people/
..The IFS said 35% of 25- to 34-year-olds in 2017 were homeowners, a decrease from 55% in 1997. The IFS noted that the biggest fall had been seen among middle-income young adults...
You can’t put Neil Kinnock in the same pigeonhole as Jeremy Corbyn!
If such a competent managerial type had been chosen instead of Truss, there would have been a chance to win. Possibly.
But he is a slow motion Truss.
This is what happens when you buy a house for the price of a packet of cheese and onion crisps in 1983. Block the construction of homes for 40 years and then sell it for 13 times the average annual salary.
If we had built houses and controlled immigation then more of our young would be accumulating wealth and the oldies wouldnt have a pile of overvalued bricks and morter. But nobody prioritised it.
Yesterday Nicky Campbells phone in on 5Live was about the Triple lock. There was the outstanding figure quoted that a quarter of pensioners had over a million pounds in assets. Not sure if this included pension pots or the source of the figure. I suspect that a very large proportion is mortgage free residential property.
When you are in a hole, stop digging.