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Were you up for Sunak? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 30 in General
Were you up for Sunak? – politicalbetting.com

New MRP by @Survation for @BestForBritain and @thetimes.https://t.co/0n3GP1qinQ pic.twitter.com/GdMxKZoYNK

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Comments

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,900
    Worth noting that this MRP has some 'interesting' output as TSE eludes to. Now it might not be a million miles off the result but it has the Tories not losing a single deposit and only in single figures in 13 seats (even on its 'lowest' totals the Tories only lose 1 deposit in Dwyfor etc), and only above 40% in 6 seats.
    North Norfolk is a Tory hold by 2% from Labour, LDs on 17%?! Nah......
    In the round, interesting. Seat by seat, almost useless.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,781
    edited March 30
    In the end, on the day, many of these REF voters will step back from the brink and vote CON, IMO.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,565
    edited March 30
    Second like the Tories in most of the seats they currently hold.

    Edit: Or maybe not.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,781
    kyf_100 said:

    1997 was "things can only get better"
    2024 is 'well, things can hardly get any worse"

    Nice first post! :D
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,976
    Haha - well deserved. Find it bizarre I started my voting phase with David Cameron in 2010 all the way to now I.e wishing the utter destruction of them at the next election.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,237
    edited March 30
    As I said on the previous thread if this was the polling coming into the GE the question does need to be asked does the country want to see Labour win such a landslide and does Reform voters stay loyal

    I would venture to suggest that unless their is a coup post the locals then Sunak will take the GE into November-December

    As far as I am concerned I have long accepted Starmer will be in no 10 this year and frankly I am not bothered when

    I should say I noted the Archbishop of Canterbury is to end his opposition in the HOC to the Rwanda Bill so we may well see if any flights take off later this Spring and the consequences if any for Sunak
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,796
    If Starmer insists on plastering Labour's election campaign with the Union Jack, then he will not prise SNP voters into his camp.
  • Worth noting that this MRP has some 'interesting' output as TSE eludes to. Now it might not be a million miles off the result but it has the Tories not losing a single deposit and only in single figures in 13 seats (even on its 'lowest' totals the Tories only lose 1 deposit in Dwyfor etc), and only above 40% in 6 seats.
    North Norfolk is a Tory hold by 2% from Labour, LDs on 17%?! Nah......
    In the round, interesting. Seat by seat, almost useless.

    Worth remembering the 2017 MRP had some interesting output such as Canterbury going Labour.
  • If Starmer insists on plastering Labour's election campaign with the Union Jack, then he will not prise SNP voters into his camp.

    If Starmer wins a triple digit majority, I don't think he'll care that much.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,090
    Regaining Tamworth and not Oswestry?

    That's more voodoo poll than a Baron Samedi Appreciation Society trip to Warsaw.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,275
    In a parallel universe, if Dave hadn't done the Brexit referendum and George Osborne was his successor how much worse would things now be for the Tories?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,604
    edited March 30

    In a parallel universe, if Dave hadn't done the Brexit referendum and George Osborne was his successor how much worse would things now be for the Tories?

    In that parallel universe the Tories might now be facing their third election defeat in a row as Labour decides who should replace Ed Miliband after he's spent nearly a decade in Downing Street.

    Imagine the chaos.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,565

    In a parallel universe, if Dave hadn't done the Brexit referendum and George Osborne was his successor how much worse would things now be for the Tories?

    I would have thought that the near-perfect Chancellor would have become a near-perfect Prime Minister.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,900
    edited March 30

    Worth noting that this MRP has some 'interesting' output as TSE eludes to. Now it might not be a million miles off the result but it has the Tories not losing a single deposit and only in single figures in 13 seats (even on its 'lowest' totals the Tories only lose 1 deposit in Dwyfor etc), and only above 40% in 6 seats.
    North Norfolk is a Tory hold by 2% from Labour, LDs on 17%?! Nah......
    In the round, interesting. Seat by seat, almost useless.

    Worth remembering the 2017 MRP had some interesting output such as Canterbury going Labour.
    It gets the odd one right of course, but that doesn't validate the glaring foolishness of some of the output (talking individual seat projections not the overall thrust)
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,335

    Worth noting that this MRP has some 'interesting' output as TSE eludes to. Now it might not be a million miles off the result but it has the Tories not losing a single deposit and only in single figures in 13 seats (even on its 'lowest' totals the Tories only lose 1 deposit in Dwyfor etc), and only above 40% in 6 seats.
    North Norfolk is a Tory hold by 2% from Labour, LDs on 17%?! Nah......
    In the round, interesting. Seat by seat, almost useless.

    Worth remembering the 2017 MRP had some interesting output such as Canterbury going Labour.
    MRPs are good at sociology (young people swung hard left in 2017 and Canterbury is full of them) but not at geography.

    I suspect that's fine for the Lib-Con battleground (all those Conservative voters have to be falling off somewhere, and Labour must be picking up votes in a broad swathe of places) but not for the smaller parties.

    In particular, unless there's a "have you put your back out from picking Focus leaflets off your doormat" variable in the regression, I wouldn't particularly trust it on the Lib Dem score.

    Though on these figures, it hardly matters.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,215
    This is interesting.

    UK government lawyers say Israel is breaking international law, claims top Tory in leaked recording

    Ex-Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence official Alicia Kearns said at a Tory fundraiser that legal advice would mean the UK has to cease all arms sales to Israel without delay


    The British government has received advice from its own lawyers stating that Israel has breached international humanitarian law in Gaza but has failed to make it public, according to a leaked recording obtained by the Observer.

    The comments, made by the Conservative chair of the House of Commons select committee on foreign affairs, Alicia Kearns, at a Tory fundraising event on 13 March are at odds with repeated ministerial denials and evasion on the issue.

    On Saturday night, Kearns, a former Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence official, who has repeatedly pressed ministers, including foreign secretary David Cameron, on the legal advice they have received, stood by her comments and called for the government to come clean.

    “I remain convinced the government has completed its updated assessment on whether Israel is demonstrating a commitment to international humanitarian law, and that it has concluded that Israel is not demonstrating this commitment, which is the legal determination it has to make,” she said. “Transparency at this point is paramount, not least to uphold the international rules-based order.”

    The revelation will place Lord Cameron and prime minister Rishi Sunak under intense pressure because any such legal advice would mean the UK had to cease all arms sales to Israel without delay.

    Legal experts said that not to do so would risk putting the UK in breach of international law itself, as it would be seen as aiding and abetting war crimes by a country it was exporting arms to.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/30/uk-government-lawyers-say-israel-is-breaking-international-law-claims-top-tory-in-leaked-recording
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234
    It’s Easter tomorrow and we seem to be on the timeline where Donald Trump is selling signed Bibles and the Moscow Patriarch is calling us Satanists and the two of them are part of a larger effort to abuse Christianity to bring about violent oligarchical fascism.
    https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1774160648462557261
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,237

    This is interesting.

    UK government lawyers say Israel is breaking international law, claims top Tory in leaked recording

    Ex-Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence official Alicia Kearns said at a Tory fundraiser that legal advice would mean the UK has to cease all arms sales to Israel without delay


    The British government has received advice from its own lawyers stating that Israel has breached international humanitarian law in Gaza but has failed to make it public, according to a leaked recording obtained by the Observer.

    The comments, made by the Conservative chair of the House of Commons select committee on foreign affairs, Alicia Kearns, at a Tory fundraising event on 13 March are at odds with repeated ministerial denials and evasion on the issue.

    On Saturday night, Kearns, a former Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence official, who has repeatedly pressed ministers, including foreign secretary David Cameron, on the legal advice they have received, stood by her comments and called for the government to come clean.

    “I remain convinced the government has completed its updated assessment on whether Israel is demonstrating a commitment to international humanitarian law, and that it has concluded that Israel is not demonstrating this commitment, which is the legal determination it has to make,” she said. “Transparency at this point is paramount, not least to uphold the international rules-based order.”

    The revelation will place Lord Cameron and prime minister Rishi Sunak under intense pressure because any such legal advice would mean the UK had to cease all arms sales to Israel without delay.

    Legal experts said that not to do so would risk putting the UK in breach of international law itself, as it would be seen as aiding and abetting war crimes by a country it was exporting arms to.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/30/uk-government-lawyers-say-israel-is-breaking-international-law-claims-top-tory-in-leaked-recording

    As a matter of interest who are Israel's main arms suppliers ?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,900
    ydoethur said:

    Regaining Tamworth and not Oswestry?

    That's more voodoo poll than a Baron Samedi Appreciation Society trip to Warsaw.

    Labour taking Montgomeryshire by 13% is classic MRP output
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,932
    As the poll shows however, if Sunak can squeeze the Reform vote he will increase the number of Tory seats won by at least 50%. So that is key.

    In Scotland it still has the SNP down 7 on 2019 but I expect that to be lower with Unionist tactical voting, especially for Labour
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,134
    The extraordinary thing is that this projects a Tory count of about 150 *if Reform stand aside*. That's terrible.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,932

    In a parallel universe, if Dave hadn't done the Brexit referendum and George Osborne was his successor how much worse would things now be for the Tories?

    In that parallel universe the Tories might now be facing their third election defeat in a row as Labour decides who should replace Ed Miliband after he's spent nearly a decade in Downing Street.

    Imagine the chaos.
    Or we might even now have PM Farage
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234
    edited March 30
    Nigelb said:

    It’s Easter tomorrow and we seem to be on the timeline where Donald Trump is selling signed Bibles and the Moscow Patriarch is calling us Satanists and the two of them are part of a larger effort to abuse Christianity to bring about violent oligarchical fascism.
    https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1774160648462557261

    The declaration by the World Russian People's Council (led by Patriarch Kirill of Moscow) that #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine is a "Holy War" is disturbing and deserves our attention.
    https://twitter.com/vmorkevicius/status/1773802556998697160

    How is this different from ISIS ?
    Other than having a member of the UN Security Council backing it up.

    Even Dura might not go along with the new description of the SMO.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,090

    ydoethur said:

    Regaining Tamworth and not Oswestry?

    That's more voodoo poll than a Baron Samedi Appreciation Society trip to Warsaw.

    Labour taking Montgomeryshire by 13% is classic MRP output
    That really would be a turnup for the book. Even more spectacular than Canterbury or Kensington going Labour or Bassetlaw going Tory. Labour are weak in Montgomeryshire. Always have been.
  • This is interesting.

    UK government lawyers say Israel is breaking international law, claims top Tory in leaked recording

    Ex-Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence official Alicia Kearns said at a Tory fundraiser that legal advice would mean the UK has to cease all arms sales to Israel without delay


    The British government has received advice from its own lawyers stating that Israel has breached international humanitarian law in Gaza but has failed to make it public, according to a leaked recording obtained by the Observer.

    The comments, made by the Conservative chair of the House of Commons select committee on foreign affairs, Alicia Kearns, at a Tory fundraising event on 13 March are at odds with repeated ministerial denials and evasion on the issue.

    On Saturday night, Kearns, a former Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence official, who has repeatedly pressed ministers, including foreign secretary David Cameron, on the legal advice they have received, stood by her comments and called for the government to come clean.

    “I remain convinced the government has completed its updated assessment on whether Israel is demonstrating a commitment to international humanitarian law, and that it has concluded that Israel is not demonstrating this commitment, which is the legal determination it has to make,” she said. “Transparency at this point is paramount, not least to uphold the international rules-based order.”

    The revelation will place Lord Cameron and prime minister Rishi Sunak under intense pressure because any such legal advice would mean the UK had to cease all arms sales to Israel without delay.

    Legal experts said that not to do so would risk putting the UK in breach of international law itself, as it would be seen as aiding and abetting war crimes by a country it was exporting arms to.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/30/uk-government-lawyers-say-israel-is-breaking-international-law-claims-top-tory-in-leaked-recording

    It's nonsense like this which is why Israel is being so restrained and fighting this war with kid gloves and one hand tied behind its back.

    They should be far more aggressive than they are. They should have gone into Rafah ages ago.

    But I respect the way they're trying to minimise civilian casualties. Unlike Hamas who aim to maximise them. And Egypt and the rest of the world kettling Palestinians into the war zone with no escape or safe haven for refugees outside it, as would be granted in any other conflict.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 4,711
    Before long we are going to be witnessing scenes reminiscent of the dark days of the concentration camps with skeletal men , women and children . Only these will be the scenes coming from Gaza .

    The Israeli government seems to have lost its humanity and is using starvation as a weapon .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,932
    Nigelb said:

    It’s Easter tomorrow and we seem to be on the timeline where Donald Trump is selling signed Bibles and the Moscow Patriarch is calling us Satanists and the two of them are part of a larger effort to abuse Christianity to bring about violent oligarchical fascism.
    https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1774160648462557261

    Zelensky is Eastern Orthodox and Biden Roman Catholic, both Christians too
  • HYUFD said:

    In a parallel universe, if Dave hadn't done the Brexit referendum and George Osborne was his successor how much worse would things now be for the Tories?

    In that parallel universe the Tories might now be facing their third election defeat in a row as Labour decides who should replace Ed Miliband after he's spent nearly a decade in Downing Street.

    Imagine the chaos.
    Or we might even now have PM Farage
    Ha!

    No.
  • TrentTrent Posts: 150

    In a parallel universe, if Dave hadn't done the Brexit referendum and George Osborne was his successor how much worse would things now be for the Tories?

    I would have thought that the near-perfect Chancellor would have become a near-perfect Prime Minister.
    Are you having a laugh. Osborne was widely disliked and his conduct since leaving office has been pretty sketchy.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,150
    Happy Easter everyone! Another ELE poll for the Tories - so much for the BJO Tory ramping a few days ago.

    I don't believe some of the seat by seat commentary offered. It reads off. But -

    1) If anything on this scale happens then the desire of the electorate is to eviscerate the Tory Party. That level of range produces all kinds of mad results
    2) Just how many entrails are extracted depends on how organised the voters are. Swing voting behind the best placed challenger can see people winning from 3rd and Portillo moments
    3) Someone mentioned ReFUK voters. Remember that the ex Tories amongst their set see the Tory party as quislings. The non-Tories don't care for their fate either. And Farage? The harder the Tories get beaten the better for him.

    If Sunak has a choice, the decision will be indecision - as long as physically possible. But to have that luxury he first has to survive the May putsch...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,932
    edited March 30
    mwadams said:

    The extraordinary thing is that this projects a Tory count of about 150 *if Reform stand aside*. That's terrible.

    It is near 1997 levels which Tories would have taken when Truss resigned, Tories would even have taken 98 seats as MRP forecast when Truss resigned given at that point they were projected less than 50 seats.

    When Boris resigned however the Tories were projected around 250+ seats, so removing him has simply seen Tory votes shift to Reform while failing to win back many voters lost to Labour or the LDs
  • TrentTrent Posts: 150
    nico679 said:

    Before long we are going to be witnessing scenes reminiscent of the dark days of the concentration camps with skeletal men , women and children . Only these will be the scenes coming from Gaza .

    The Israeli government seems to have lost its humanity and is using starvation as a weapon .

    Not jus thst we will get a further rise in anti semitism and not just from the usual suspects.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234
    Another Leon prediction which didn’t quite pan out.

    Whatever Happened to the Urban Doom Loop?
    America’s superstar cities have avoided the post-pandemic death spiral—so far, anyway.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/03/urban-doom-loop-american-cities/677847/
    … Twenty-five of America’s 26 largest downtowns have more residents today than they did on the eve of the pandemic. Meanwhile, both violent and property crime plummeted in cities across the country in 2022 and 2023 (Washington, D.C., was a notable exception), and some other threats to public order, such as shoplifting, appear to have been overstated...


  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,275

    In a parallel universe, if Dave hadn't done the Brexit referendum and George Osborne was his successor how much worse would things now be for the Tories?

    In that parallel universe the Tories might now be facing their third election defeat in a row as Labour decides who should replace Ed Miliband after he's spent nearly a decade in Downing Street.

    Imagine the chaos.
    Was the Brexit referendum really such a vote winner though? My recollection is that everyone for whom Europe was a thing assumed that Dave would find some way of reneging anyway. And what if Labour had won under Miliband? The Tories would have come back at some point. With the situation we have now it could actually be terminal.
  • TrentTrent Posts: 150

    This is interesting.

    UK government lawyers say Israel is breaking international law, claims top Tory in leaked recording

    Ex-Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence official Alicia Kearns said at a Tory fundraiser that legal advice would mean the UK has to cease all arms sales to Israel without delay


    The British government has received advice from its own lawyers stating that Israel has breached international humanitarian law in Gaza but has failed to make it public, according to a leaked recording obtained by the Observer.

    The comments, made by the Conservative chair of the House of Commons select committee on foreign affairs, Alicia Kearns, at a Tory fundraising event on 13 March are at odds with repeated ministerial denials and evasion on the issue.

    On Saturday night, Kearns, a former Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence official, who has repeatedly pressed ministers, including foreign secretary David Cameron, on the legal advice they have received, stood by her comments and called for the government to come clean.

    “I remain convinced the government has completed its updated assessment on whether Israel is demonstrating a commitment to international humanitarian law, and that it has concluded that Israel is not demonstrating this commitment, which is the legal determination it has to make,” she said. “Transparency at this point is paramount, not least to uphold the international rules-based order.”

    The revelation will place Lord Cameron and prime minister Rishi Sunak under intense pressure because any such legal advice would mean the UK had to cease all arms sales to Israel without delay.

    Legal experts said that not to do so would risk putting the UK in breach of international law itself, as it would be seen as aiding and abetting war crimes by a country it was exporting arms to.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/30/uk-government-lawyers-say-israel-is-breaking-international-law-claims-top-tory-in-leaked-recording

    It's nonsense like this which is why Israel is being so restrained and fighting this war with kid gloves and one hand tied behind its back.

    They should be far more aggressive than they are. They should have gone into Rafah ages ago.

    But I respect the way they're trying to minimise civilian casualties. Unlike Hamas who aim to maximise them. And Egypt and the rest of the world kettling Palestinians into the war zone with no escape or safe haven for refugees outside it, as would be granted in any other conflict.
    Its posts like this that let us know who you are and it aint pretty.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,900
    The Sun have a More In Common poll out with Rishi and Penny vs Lab
    Rishi 23 44
    Penny 28 43

    Ref on 11, LD on 11(9 with Penny), Green 6, SNP 4

    Not their standard methodology as have not done their DK splitting so not comparable to their usual output according to Luke Tryl
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 2,758
    Trent said:

    In a parallel universe, if Dave hadn't done the Brexit referendum and George Osborne was his successor how much worse would things now be for the Tories?

    I would have thought that the near-perfect Chancellor would have become a near-perfect Prime Minister.
    Are you having a laugh. Osborne was widely disliked and his conduct since leaving office has been pretty sketchy.
    You'll receive The Order of Lenin for this
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,312
    FPT
    Some rearkable findings there. Guildford (kjh's base) is Con 27 Lab 28 LD 29. Godalming (Hunt's seat, where I was based) Con 33 LD 32 LD 25. My bet with Andy Cooke on Didcot and Wantage looking good: Con 33 Lab 38 LD 17. Basically reinforces the case for the LibDems to concentrate on the top targets.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,979
    edited March 30

    In a parallel universe, if Dave hadn't done the Brexit referendum and George Osborne was his successor how much worse would things now be for the Tories?

    In that parallel universe the Tories might now be facing their third election defeat in a row as Labour decides who should replace Ed Miliband after he's spent nearly a decade in Downing Street.

    Imagine the chaos.
    Was the Brexit referendum really such a vote winner though? My recollection is that everyone for whom Europe was a thing assumed that Dave would find some way of reneging anyway. And what if Labour had won under Miliband? The Tories would have come back at some point. With the situation we have now it could actually be terminal.
    What’s made it terminal is that the Tories have delivered Blairism on steroids while pretending to do something else.
  • .
    Trent said:

    This is interesting.

    UK government lawyers say Israel is breaking international law, claims top Tory in leaked recording

    Ex-Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence official Alicia Kearns said at a Tory fundraiser that legal advice would mean the UK has to cease all arms sales to Israel without delay


    The British government has received advice from its own lawyers stating that Israel has breached international humanitarian law in Gaza but has failed to make it public, according to a leaked recording obtained by the Observer.

    The comments, made by the Conservative chair of the House of Commons select committee on foreign affairs, Alicia Kearns, at a Tory fundraising event on 13 March are at odds with repeated ministerial denials and evasion on the issue.

    On Saturday night, Kearns, a former Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence official, who has repeatedly pressed ministers, including foreign secretary David Cameron, on the legal advice they have received, stood by her comments and called for the government to come clean.

    “I remain convinced the government has completed its updated assessment on whether Israel is demonstrating a commitment to international humanitarian law, and that it has concluded that Israel is not demonstrating this commitment, which is the legal determination it has to make,” she said. “Transparency at this point is paramount, not least to uphold the international rules-based order.”

    The revelation will place Lord Cameron and prime minister Rishi Sunak under intense pressure because any such legal advice would mean the UK had to cease all arms sales to Israel without delay.

    Legal experts said that not to do so would risk putting the UK in breach of international law itself, as it would be seen as aiding and abetting war crimes by a country it was exporting arms to.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/30/uk-government-lawyers-say-israel-is-breaking-international-law-claims-top-tory-in-leaked-recording

    It's nonsense like this which is why Israel is being so restrained and fighting this war with kid gloves and one hand tied behind its back.

    They should be far more aggressive than they are. They should have gone into Rafah ages ago.

    But I respect the way they're trying to minimise civilian casualties. Unlike Hamas who aim to maximise them. And Egypt and the rest of the world kettling Palestinians into the war zone with no escape or safe haven for refugees outside it, as would be granted in any other conflict.
    Its posts like this that let us know who you are and it aint pretty.
    I know Moscow supports Hamas, you don't need to tell us.

    Israel is fighting an existential war for its survival, it's entitled to proportionately seek to destroy Hamas and its doing so.

    Some people here object to the very notion of seeking to destroy Hamas and don't want Israel to win this war.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 2,758

    In a parallel universe, if Dave hadn't done the Brexit referendum and George Osborne was his successor how much worse would things now be for the Tories?

    I'm guessing the scheduled election for 2020 would have been delayed until 2021 because of Covid, with the Tories winning another majority as there would have been a "We can't change governments during a crisis now" vibe going on.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,877
    We must be approaching the time when people swallow their pride & admit that getting rid of Boris was a horrendous, possibly fatal, mistake by the Tories now.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,827
    isam said:

    We must be approaching the time when people swallow their pride & admit that getting rid of Boris was a horrendous, possibly fatal, mistake by the Tories now.

    The bigger mistake was making him leader
  • TrentTrent Posts: 150
    Elon Musk calls for peace in ukraine tonight.

    It was a tragic waste of life for Ukraine to attack a larger army that had defense in depth, minefields and stronger artillery when Ukraine lacked armor or air superiority! Any fool could have predicted that.

    My recommendation a year ago was for Ukraine to entrench and apply all resources to defense. Even then, it is tough to hold land that doesn’t have strong natural barriers.

    There is no chance of Russia taking all of Ukraine, as the local resistance would be extreme in the west, but Russia will certainly gain more land than they have today.

    The longer the war goes on, the more territory Russia will gain until they hit the Dnepr, which is tough to overcome. However, if the war lasts long enough, Odessa will fall too.

    Whether Ukraine loses all access to the Black Sea or not is, in my view, the real remaining question. I recommend a negotiated settlement before that happens.
    6:35 PM · Mar 30, 2024
    ·
    115.2K
    View
    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1774143429720596865?s=20
  • eekeek Posts: 24,924
    isam said:

    We must be approaching the time when people swallow their pride & admit that getting rid of Boris was a horrendous, possibly fatal, mistake by the Tories now.

    Nope - it was the election of Bozo that was the horrendous, fatal, mistake that will destroy the Tories.

    I said as much 4 years ago..
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,335

    FPT
    Some rearkable findings there. Guildford (kjh's base) is Con 27 Lab 28 LD 29. Godalming (Hunt's seat, where I was based) Con 33 LD 32 LD 25. My bet with Andy Cooke on Didcot and Wantage looking good: Con 33 Lab 38 LD 17. Basically reinforces the case for the LibDems to concentrate on the top targets.

    What do you think is the difference driving that? My mental map is that Lib Dem success is driven by a factor I can only describe as "leafiness". Well, that and especially fanatical local activists. Is Oxfordshire less leafy than Surrey?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,275

    In a parallel universe, if Dave hadn't done the Brexit referendum and George Osborne was his successor how much worse would things now be for the Tories?

    In that parallel universe the Tories might now be facing their third election defeat in a row as Labour decides who should replace Ed Miliband after he's spent nearly a decade in Downing Street.

    Imagine the chaos.
    Was the Brexit referendum really such a vote winner though? My recollection is that everyone for whom Europe was a thing assumed that Dave would find some way of reneging anyway. And what if Labour had won under Miliband? The Tories would have come back at some point. With the situation we have now it could actually be terminal.
    What’s made it terminal is that the Tories have delivered Blairism on steroids while pretending to do something else.
    So the voters are flocking to Labour because the Tories are too much like the last Labour government. Hmm.
  • In a parallel universe, if Dave hadn't done the Brexit referendum and George Osborne was his successor how much worse would things now be for the Tories?

    In that parallel universe the Tories might now be facing their third election defeat in a row as Labour decides who should replace Ed Miliband after he's spent nearly a decade in Downing Street.

    Imagine the chaos.
    Was the Brexit referendum really such a vote winner though? My recollection is that everyone for whom Europe was a thing assumed that Dave would find some way of reneging anyway. And what if Labour had won under Miliband? The Tories would have come back at some point. With the situation we have now it could actually be terminal.
    There's no such thing as terminal.

    Nature abhors a vacuum, even if the Tories go down to single digits a la Canada 1993 then they or a successor will eventually come back, a la Canada 2006.

    This current lot though deserve to be terminated. They deserve time in the Opposition benches, or no benches at all, to understand why they've been evicted and that they need to do better. That they need to appeal to more than the pure only ever voted Tory HYUFDs of this country.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234

    This is interesting.

    UK government lawyers say Israel is breaking international law, claims top Tory in leaked recording

    Ex-Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence official Alicia Kearns said at a Tory fundraiser that legal advice would mean the UK has to cease all arms sales to Israel without delay


    The British government has received advice from its own lawyers stating that Israel has breached international humanitarian law in Gaza but has failed to make it public, according to a leaked recording obtained by the Observer.

    The comments, made by the Conservative chair of the House of Commons select committee on foreign affairs, Alicia Kearns, at a Tory fundraising event on 13 March are at odds with repeated ministerial denials and evasion on the issue.

    On Saturday night, Kearns, a former Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence official, who has repeatedly pressed ministers, including foreign secretary David Cameron, on the legal advice they have received, stood by her comments and called for the government to come clean.

    “I remain convinced the government has completed its updated assessment on whether Israel is demonstrating a commitment to international humanitarian law, and that it has concluded that Israel is not demonstrating this commitment, which is the legal determination it has to make,” she said. “Transparency at this point is paramount, not least to uphold the international rules-based order.”

    The revelation will place Lord Cameron and prime minister Rishi Sunak under intense pressure because any such legal advice would mean the UK had to cease all arms sales to Israel without delay.

    Legal experts said that not to do so would risk putting the UK in breach of international law itself, as it would be seen as aiding and abetting war crimes by a country it was exporting arms to.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/30/uk-government-lawyers-say-israel-is-breaking-international-law-claims-top-tory-in-leaked-recording

    The ICJ ruling this week says something similar.
    https://www.timesofisrael.com/icj-orders-israel-to-increase-humanitarian-aid-to-gaza-demands-report-in-30-days/
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    nico679 said:

    Before long we are going to be witnessing scenes reminiscent of the dark days of the concentration camps with skeletal men , women and children . Only these will be the scenes coming from Gaza .

    The Israeli government seems to have lost its humanity and is using starvation as a weapon .

    It must be awful for you having had to spend the last six months hoping this would happen, just so you wouldn't be proven wrong, and still not giving up. I do feel sorry for you. Sort of.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,275
    isam said:

    We must be approaching the time when people swallow their pride & admit that getting rid of Boris was a horrendous, possibly fatal, mistake by the Tories now.

    If the Tories' survival was dependant on Boris then that's a seriously unhealthily place for a political party to be in, and they were probably doomed anyway.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,877
    edited March 30
    Scott_xP said:

    isam said:

    We must be approaching the time when people swallow their pride & admit that getting rid of Boris was a horrendous, possibly fatal, mistake by the Tories now.

    The bigger mistake was making him leader
    I wonder what would have happened had he not become leader. The PM would have been Hunt, it’s unlikely he would have called an election, and we’d have had the Tories in hock to the DUP with Brexit unresolved, or a second referendum in place, all the way through Covid
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,932
    edited March 30
    isam said:

    We must be approaching the time when people swallow their pride & admit that getting rid of Boris was a horrendous, possibly fatal, mistake by the Tories now.

    Yes, removing Boris has cost 150 Tory MPs their seats on this poll, even if Rishi squeezes Reform it will still have cost 100 Tory MPs their seats.

    Had Truss remained it would have cost 200 Tory MPs their seats. Had Conservative members had a choice to keep Boris in 2022 or not they would have kept him. Tory MPs by removing him may ultimately have got a more competent PM in Sunak but it has cost far more of them their seats given even when he resigned polls had the Conservatives on 250+ seats with Boris.

    In Opposition therefore expect the membership to back a Boris loyalist and rightwinger as Leader of the Opposition and next Conservative Leader
  • Clutch_BromptonClutch_Brompton Posts: 411
    edited March 30
    Aren't MRPs fun? My highlight on this one is Hazel Grove. I can see the Cons losing it - but to Lab? I doubt it. The method is very harsh on third parties. So the Greens and Scot Cons lose all of their seats. The Lib Dems win 22 but Lab come from nowhere to win South Cambridgeshire. The massively expanded Montomeryshire and Glyndwr going Lab is almost pedestrian concerned to that.

    Meanwhile, a big Survation poll had Lab 19% ahead and Reform UK on 8%. Cons plus Reform are on 34.7% - still more than 10% behind Lab.

    In these circumstances why on earth would the blessed Nigel call off the dogs. He needs the Cons to know just how much they need him and a result anywhere within a hundred miles of this will do that in spades!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234
    edited March 30
    Trent said:

    Elon Musk calls for peace in ukraine tonight.

    It was a tragic waste of life for Ukraine to attack a larger army that had defense in depth, minefields and stronger artillery when Ukraine lacked armor or air superiority! Any fool could have predicted that.

    My recommendation a year ago was for Ukraine to entrench and apply all resources to defense. Even then, it is tough to hold land that doesn’t have strong natural barriers.

    There is no chance of Russia taking all of Ukraine, as the local resistance would be extreme in the west, but Russia will certainly gain more land than they have today.

    The longer the war goes on, the more territory Russia will gain until they hit the Dnepr, which is tough to overcome. However, if the war lasts long enough, Odessa will fall too.

    Whether Ukraine loses all access to the Black Sea or not is, in my view, the real remaining question. I recommend a negotiated settlement before that happens.
    6:35 PM · Mar 30, 2024
    ·
    115.2K
    View
    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1774143429720596865?s=20

    Elon’s been pushing Putin propaganda (whether out of ignorance of malice) for a while now.
    About the only thing you and he have in common.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,877
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    We must be approaching the time when people swallow their pride & admit that getting rid of Boris was a horrendous, possibly fatal, mistake by the Tories now.

    Yes, removing Boris has cost 150 Tory MPs on this poll, even if Rishi squeezes Reform it will still have cost 100 Tory MPs their seats.

    Had Truss remained it would have cost 200 Tory MPs their seats. Had Conservative members had a choice to keep Boris in 2022 or not they would have kept him. Tory MPs by removing him may ultimately have got a more competent PM in Sunak but it has cost far more of them their seats given even when he resigned polls had the Conservatives on 250+ seats with Boris.

    In Opposition therefore expect the membership to back a Boris loyalist and rightwinger as Leader of the Opposition and next Conservative Leader
    Watching Ch4s ‘The Rise & Fall of Boris Johnson’ it seems unlikely to be that he’s given up on being leader/PM again.

  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,129
    GIN1138 said:

    In the end, on the day, many of these REF voters will step back from the brink and vote CON, IMO.

    A substantial vote share (i.e. more than about 3-4%) for RefUK would be a lot more surprising than a Labour landslide. At the end of the day, the electoral system makes life very difficult indeed for challenger parties and the voters understand this. The wasted vote argument works powerfully, which is why FPTP won't be scrapped under any likely circumstances in the foreseeable future. It keeps the two large parties in business - their forced electoral coalitions would dissolve immediately under a proportional system.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,827
    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    isam said:

    We must be approaching the time when people swallow their pride & admit that getting rid of Boris was a horrendous, possibly fatal, mistake by the Tories now.

    The bigger mistake was making him leader
    I wonder what would have happened had he not become leader. The PM would have been Hunt, it’s unlikely he would have called an election, and we’d have had the Tories in hock to the DUP with Brexit unresolved, or a second referendum in place, all the way through Covid
    Interesting counterfactual

    Covid might have seen a Government of National Unity.

    Whoever was PM, they wouldn't have partied while people died like BoZo
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,604
    edited March 30
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    We must be approaching the time when people swallow their pride & admit that getting rid of Boris was a horrendous, possibly fatal, mistake by the Tories now.

    Yes, removing Boris has cost 150 Tory MPs their seats on this poll, even if Rishi squeezes Reform it will still have cost 100 Tory MPs their seats.

    Had Truss remained it would have cost 200 Tory MPs their seats. Had Conservative members had a choice to keep Boris in 2022 or not they would have kept him. Tory MPs by removing him may ultimately have got a more competent PM in Sunak but it has cost far more of them their seats given even when he resigned polls had the Conservatives on 250+ seats with Boris.

    In Opposition therefore expect the membership to back a Boris loyalist and rightwinger as Leader of the Opposition and next Conservative Leader
    Your fallacy is acting as if nothing would have changed and the final poll under previous leaders would be the same as polling would be today.

    Change is constantly happening, the trend under Boris was clear decline and there's no reason to imagine that decline would have magically halted had he not been ousted.

    I suspect that Sunak will poll worse on election day than Truss would have, but there's no way of testing that counterfactual.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,820
    Nigelb said:

    This is interesting.

    UK government lawyers say Israel is breaking international law, claims top Tory in leaked recording

    Ex-Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence official Alicia Kearns said at a Tory fundraiser that legal advice would mean the UK has to cease all arms sales to Israel without delay


    The British government has received advice from its own lawyers stating that Israel has breached international humanitarian law in Gaza but has failed to make it public, according to a leaked recording obtained by the Observer.

    The comments, made by the Conservative chair of the House of Commons select committee on foreign affairs, Alicia Kearns, at a Tory fundraising event on 13 March are at odds with repeated ministerial denials and evasion on the issue.

    On Saturday night, Kearns, a former Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence official, who has repeatedly pressed ministers, including foreign secretary David Cameron, on the legal advice they have received, stood by her comments and called for the government to come clean.

    “I remain convinced the government has completed its updated assessment on whether Israel is demonstrating a commitment to international humanitarian law, and that it has concluded that Israel is not demonstrating this commitment, which is the legal determination it has to make,” she said. “Transparency at this point is paramount, not least to uphold the international rules-based order.”

    The revelation will place Lord Cameron and prime minister Rishi Sunak under intense pressure because any such legal advice would mean the UK had to cease all arms sales to Israel without delay.

    Legal experts said that not to do so would risk putting the UK in breach of international law itself, as it would be seen as aiding and abetting war crimes by a country it was exporting arms to.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/30/uk-government-lawyers-say-israel-is-breaking-international-law-claims-top-tory-in-leaked-recording

    The ICJ ruling this week says something similar.
    https://www.timesofisrael.com/icj-orders-israel-to-increase-humanitarian-aid-to-gaza-demands-report-in-30-days/
    Who actually cares about icj rulings...serious question...they can't enforce there rulings unless they can persuade a lot of countries to invade...they are more toothless than a duck. A complete and utter waste of time with highly paid people passing judgements that will never be prosecuted....abolish them or at least we should not contribute to the idiocy
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,150
    MRP Poll. 15k respondents means the national figure is robust.

    Seat by seat? 15,000 / 650 seats = 23 per seat. Which is subsampletastic.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,877
    edited March 30

    isam said:

    We must be approaching the time when people swallow their pride & admit that getting rid of Boris was a horrendous, possibly fatal, mistake by the Tories now.

    If the Tories' survival was dependant on Boris then that's a seriously unhealthily place for a political party to be in, and they were probably doomed anyway.
    The coalition that won them the 2019 GE after he had got rid of the Remainers/Second
    referendumers, relied on him being PM. Getting rid meant the 2019 vote fractured, and Rishi trying to be Boris lite put off the Cameroons. The worst of both worlds achieved
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,932
    edited March 30

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    We must be approaching the time when people swallow their pride & admit that getting rid of Boris was a horrendous, possibly fatal, mistake by the Tories now.

    Yes, removing Boris has cost 150 Tory MPs their seats on this poll, even if Rishi squeezes Reform it will still have cost 100 Tory MPs their seats.

    Had Truss remained it would have cost 200 Tory MPs their seats. Had Conservative members had a choice to keep Boris in 2022 or not they would have kept him. Tory MPs by removing him may ultimately have got a more competent PM in Sunak but it has cost far more of them their seats given even when he resigned polls had the Conservatives on 250+ seats with Boris.

    In Opposition therefore expect the membership to back a Boris loyalist and rightwinger as Leader of the Opposition and next Conservative Leader
    Your fallacy is acting as if nothing would have changed and the final poll under previous leaders would be the same as polling would be today.

    Change is constantly happening, the trend under Boris was clear decline and there's no reason to imagine that decline would have magically halted had he not been ousted.

    I suspect that Sunak will poll worse on election day than Truss would have, but there's no way of testing that counterfactual.
    Boris would not have leaked as heavily to Reform as Sunak did or as heavily to Labour as Truss did.

    Unless the Tories get less than 50 seats, Sunak will still win more Conservative MPs than the final polls before Truss resigned predicted
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234
    edited March 30

    This is interesting.

    UK government lawyers say Israel is breaking international law, claims top Tory in leaked recording

    Ex-Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence official Alicia Kearns said at a Tory fundraiser that legal advice would mean the UK has to cease all arms sales to Israel without delay


    The British government has received advice from its own lawyers stating that Israel has breached international humanitarian law in Gaza but has failed to make it public, according to a leaked recording obtained by the Observer.

    The comments, made by the Conservative chair of the House of Commons select committee on foreign affairs, Alicia Kearns, at a Tory fundraising event on 13 March are at odds with repeated ministerial denials and evasion on the issue.

    On Saturday night, Kearns, a former Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence official, who has repeatedly pressed ministers, including foreign secretary David Cameron, on the legal advice they have received, stood by her comments and called for the government to come clean.

    “I remain convinced the government has completed its updated assessment on whether Israel is demonstrating a commitment to international humanitarian law, and that it has concluded that Israel is not demonstrating this commitment, which is the legal determination it has to make,” she said. “Transparency at this point is paramount, not least to uphold the international rules-based order.”

    The revelation will place Lord Cameron and prime minister Rishi Sunak under intense pressure because any such legal advice would mean the UK had to cease all arms sales to Israel without delay.

    Legal experts said that not to do so would risk putting the UK in breach of international law itself, as it would be seen as aiding and abetting war crimes by a country it was exporting arms to.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/30/uk-government-lawyers-say-israel-is-breaking-international-law-claims-top-tory-in-leaked-recording

    As a matter of interest who are Israel's main arms suppliers ?
    The US. (And, of course, their own substantial domestic manufacturing.)
    We’re of no real significance to them.

    Also of interest - and I bet few PBers are aware of the fact - is that the US has been in effect legally obligated to maintain Israel’s regional military superiority, since 2008, by this legislation:

    https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/22/2776#
    22 U.S. Code § 2776 - Reports and certifications to Congress on military exports
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,565

    FPT
    Some rearkable findings there. Guildford (kjh's base) is Con 27 Lab 28 LD 29. Godalming (Hunt's seat, where I was based) Con 33 LD 32 LD 25. My bet with Andy Cooke on Didcot and Wantage looking good: Con 33 Lab 38 LD 17. Basically reinforces the case for the LibDems to concentrate on the top targets.

    @NickPalmer re Godalming you have LD twice and no Lab. Which one is lab and which is LD please?

    Whereas I am with you (because of high Labour polling and low LD polling) that Labour will come through strongly in seats where the LD are second and take some of them from the Tories or come 2nd and push the LDs back to 3rd but I do think the figures quoted above are not realistic where the LDs are the clear challengers. I find it mindboggling that Lab can be on 28 in Guildford where they have little presence. I clearly have less knowledge than you re Godalming and it is unclear which figure is Lab and which is LD because of the typo, but it seems unlikely that Lab are that high. What is your view?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,877
    Scott_xP said:

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    isam said:

    We must be approaching the time when people swallow their pride & admit that getting rid of Boris was a horrendous, possibly fatal, mistake by the Tories now.

    The bigger mistake was making him leader
    I wonder what would have happened had he not become leader. The PM would have been Hunt, it’s unlikely he would have called an election, and we’d have had the Tories in hock to the DUP with Brexit unresolved, or a second referendum in place, all the way through Covid
    Interesting counterfactual

    Covid might have seen a Government of National Unity.

    Whoever was PM, they wouldn't have partied while people died like BoZo
    Govt of National Unity would have had Jezza in a prominent role, and he was one of the first to break the rule of six
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,897
    Nigelb said:
    I've always quite fancied one of these :

    image
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,392
    mwadams said:

    The extraordinary thing is that this projects a Tory count of about 150 *if Reform stand aside*. That's terrible.

    Why terrible?
  • TrentTrent Posts: 150
    Nigelb said:

    Trent said:

    Elon Musk calls for peace in ukraine tonight.

    It was a tragic waste of life for Ukraine to attack a larger army that had defense in depth, minefields and stronger artillery when Ukraine lacked armor or air superiority! Any fool could have predicted that.

    My recommendation a year ago was for Ukraine to entrench and apply all resources to defense. Even then, it is tough to hold land that doesn’t have strong natural barriers.

    There is no chance of Russia taking all of Ukraine, as the local resistance would be extreme in the west, but Russia will certainly gain more land than they have today.

    The longer the war goes on, the more territory Russia will gain until they hit the Dnepr, which is tough to overcome. However, if the war lasts long enough, Odessa will fall too.

    Whether Ukraine loses all access to the Black Sea or not is, in my view, the real remaining question. I recommend a negotiated settlement before that happens.
    6:35 PM · Mar 30, 2024
    ·
    115.2K
    View
    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1774143429720596865?s=20

    Elon’s been pushing Putin propaganda (whether out of ignorance of malice) for a while now.
    About the only thing you and he have in common.
    Maybe hes more rational than you, not difficult by the way.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,465
    "Zelensky is Eastern Orthodox"?

    Source for this assertion?????

    Especially considering the MASS OF EVIDENCE that the UKR President is . . . wait for it . . . Jewish.

    For example:

    The Jewish Chronicle - How Jewish is Volodymyr Zelensky?
    The Ukrainian President is hailed as one of the few Jewish world leaders not from Israel, but how Jewish is he?

    . . . . Days before taking office in 2019, Zelensky put flowers on the grave of his Jewish grandfather, who fought the Nazis in World War II. . . .

    He revealed on CNN that his great-grandparents were killed by the Nazis in a blaze that consumed their entire village.

    However, his grandmother escaped Hitler in an evacuation of Jews to Kazakhstan. . . .

    Zelensky said he grew up in an “ordinary Soviet Jewish family,” which was to say, not very religious, since “religion didn’t exist in the Soviet state as such.”

    In January 2020, during the commemoration in Israel of the 75th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz, Zelensky told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a story about a family of four brothers.

    “Three of them, their parents and their families became victims of the Holocaust. All of them were shot by German occupiers who invaded Ukraine,” he said. “The fourth brother survived. … Two years after the war, he had a son, and in 31 years, he had a grandson. In 40 more years, that grandson became president, and he is standing before you today, Mr. Prime Minister.”

    . . . . Historian Mr Shchupak thought Zelensky’s background played “zero role” in the election campaign - aside from a few posts on social media, which included a comment on Facebook by an adviser to Ukrainian President Poroshenko that “the president of Ukraine must be Ukrainian and Christian”.

    “Everybody in Ukraine knows that Zelensky is a Jew,” Mr. Shchupak said. “He is a typical product of a secular intellectual Jewish family. How can this happen in a country that Russia says is run by fascists?” . . .

    How important is Zelensky's Jewishness to him?

    Zelensky's "Jewishness is important for him," said Nathan Sharansky, who spent years in a Soviet Gulag accused of treason for seeking permission to move to Israel.

    He is not "a Jew who is making secret of his Jewishness and he is not a Jew who is looking for some other identity," Sharansky told AFP. . . .

    https://www.thejc.com/news/world/how-jewish-is-volodymyr-zelensky-n4utji15
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,932
    edited March 30
    isam said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    We must be approaching the time when people swallow their pride & admit that getting rid of Boris was a horrendous, possibly fatal, mistake by the Tories now.

    Yes, removing Boris has cost 150 Tory MPs on this poll, even if Rishi squeezes Reform it will still have cost 100 Tory MPs their seats.

    Had Truss remained it would have cost 200 Tory MPs their seats. Had Conservative members had a choice to keep Boris in 2022 or not they would have kept him. Tory MPs by removing him may ultimately have got a more competent PM in Sunak but it has cost far more of them their seats given even when he resigned polls had the Conservatives on 250+ seats with Boris.

    In Opposition therefore expect the membership to back a Boris loyalist and rightwinger as Leader of the Opposition and next Conservative Leader
    Watching Ch4s ‘The Rise & Fall of Boris Johnson’ it seems unlikely to be that he’s given up on being leader/PM again.

    Indeed, if Trump makes his comeback after defeat in 2020 and comes back to win in November and beat Biden in a rematch, I suspect Boris will try and make a comeback in Opposition. By then Sunak and Hunt, his main enemies in the party and former leadership rivals, will have likely led the party to crushing defeat and left the scene along with Cameron. Starmer will then have to deal with the economy, cost of living and the unions as PM. Boris' hero Churchill of course made a comeback in 1951 after defeat in 1945
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,335

    isam said:

    We must be approaching the time when people swallow their pride & admit that getting rid of Boris was a horrendous, possibly fatal, mistake by the Tories now.

    If the Tories' survival was dependant on Boris then that's a seriously unhealthily place for a political party to be in, and they were probably doomed anyway.
    That was kinda the situation in 2019. Even then, Boris was like the Howard Kirk character from The History Man, seeking credit for solving a problem he had largely created. And that was long before the Pincher fiasco, or the lying at the despatch box thing happened and blew up.

    It wasn't a mistake because Boris's behaviour had made his leadership untenable.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,900

    MRP Poll. 15k respondents means the national figure is robust.

    Seat by seat? 15,000 / 650 seats = 23 per seat. Which is subsampletastic.

    National figure bang in line with Survations last poll and general findings of late
  • ajbajb Posts: 118
    The big question for me is, why are the LibDems doing so badly? I want to see the Tories lose, but I would rather see the Libdems become the official opposition than see Labour with a 300 seat majority. Or even a 200 seat majority! I mean, most of the electorate now know in their gut that to vote Tory is to vote for a greater chance of dying of untreated cancer, but the Lib dems are still losing to them. If they aren't going to overtake them now, they will never do it - they might as well shut up shop.
  • MRP Poll. 15k respondents means the national figure is robust.

    Seat by seat? 15,000 / 650 seats = 23 per seat. Which is subsampletastic.

    This is a fallacy.

    Opinion polls aren't more accurate based on being larger, just ask the Literary Digest and its suggested President Alf Landon.

    Polls are accurate if they have a good methodology over a good size, the size just needs to be appropriate to its methodology.

    And the seat by seat predictions aren't based upon respondents in that seat.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,406
    MRPs are just Labour propaganda to undermine the Lib Dems in target seats.

    Discuss.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234
    Pagan2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is interesting.

    UK government lawyers say Israel is breaking international law, claims top Tory in leaked recording

    Ex-Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence official Alicia Kearns said at a Tory fundraiser that legal advice would mean the UK has to cease all arms sales to Israel without delay


    The British government has received advice from its own lawyers stating that Israel has breached international humanitarian law in Gaza but has failed to make it public, according to a leaked recording obtained by the Observer.

    The comments, made by the Conservative chair of the House of Commons select committee on foreign affairs, Alicia Kearns, at a Tory fundraising event on 13 March are at odds with repeated ministerial denials and evasion on the issue.

    On Saturday night, Kearns, a former Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence official, who has repeatedly pressed ministers, including foreign secretary David Cameron, on the legal advice they have received, stood by her comments and called for the government to come clean.

    “I remain convinced the government has completed its updated assessment on whether Israel is demonstrating a commitment to international humanitarian law, and that it has concluded that Israel is not demonstrating this commitment, which is the legal determination it has to make,” she said. “Transparency at this point is paramount, not least to uphold the international rules-based order.”

    The revelation will place Lord Cameron and prime minister Rishi Sunak under intense pressure because any such legal advice would mean the UK had to cease all arms sales to Israel without delay.

    Legal experts said that not to do so would risk putting the UK in breach of international law itself, as it would be seen as aiding and abetting war crimes by a country it was exporting arms to.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/30/uk-government-lawyers-say-israel-is-breaking-international-law-claims-top-tory-in-leaked-recording

    The ICJ ruling this week says something similar.
    https://www.timesofisrael.com/icj-orders-israel-to-increase-humanitarian-aid-to-gaza-demands-report-in-30-days/
    Who actually cares about icj rulings...serious question...they can't enforce there rulings unless they can persuade a lot of countries to invade...they are more toothless than a duck. A complete and utter waste of time with highly paid people passing judgements that will never be prosecuted....abolish them or at least we should not contribute to the idiocy
    I don’t think we’d enjoy a world free of international law.
    It’s a long time since the UK was hegemonic.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,877
    edited March 30
    The quote tweets are something else!

    Not a good idea in my opinion. First thing that comes to mind is kids will be bullied at school over this

    🚨 NEW: The Tories are planning a league table for migrant crime

    [@Telegraph]


    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1773842969176469547?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,465
    Radio Muskow broadcasting yet again via PB.

    Makes me want to puke . . . all over some scum-sucking pimp-for Putin.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,932

    "Zelensky is Eastern Orthodox"?

    Source for this assertion?????

    Especially considering the MASS OF EVIDENCE that the UKR President is . . . wait for it . . . Jewish.

    For example:

    The Jewish Chronicle - How Jewish is Volodymyr Zelensky?
    The Ukrainian President is hailed as one of the few Jewish world leaders not from Israel, but how Jewish is he?

    . . . . Days before taking office in 2019, Zelensky put flowers on the grave of his Jewish grandfather, who fought the Nazis in World War II. . . .

    He revealed on CNN that his great-grandparents were killed by the Nazis in a blaze that consumed their entire village.

    However, his grandmother escaped Hitler in an evacuation of Jews to Kazakhstan. . . .

    Zelensky said he grew up in an “ordinary Soviet Jewish family,” which was to say, not very religious, since “religion didn’t exist in the Soviet state as such.”

    In January 2020, during the commemoration in Israel of the 75th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz, Zelensky told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a story about a family of four brothers.

    “Three of them, their parents and their families became victims of the Holocaust. All of them were shot by German occupiers who invaded Ukraine,” he said. “The fourth brother survived. … Two years after the war, he had a son, and in 31 years, he had a grandson. In 40 more years, that grandson became president, and he is standing before you today, Mr. Prime Minister.”

    . . . . Historian Mr Shchupak thought Zelensky’s background played “zero role” in the election campaign - aside from a few posts on social media, which included a comment on Facebook by an adviser to Ukrainian President Poroshenko that “the president of Ukraine must be Ukrainian and Christian”.

    “Everybody in Ukraine knows that Zelensky is a Jew,” Mr. Shchupak said. “He is a typical product of a secular intellectual Jewish family. How can this happen in a country that Russia says is run by fascists?” . . .

    How important is Zelensky's Jewishness to him?

    Zelensky's "Jewishness is important for him," said Nathan Sharansky, who spent years in a Soviet Gulag accused of treason for seeking permission to move to Israel.

    He is not "a Jew who is making secret of his Jewishness and he is not a Jew who is looking for some other identity," Sharansky told AFP. . . .

    https://www.thejc.com/news/world/how-jewish-is-volodymyr-zelensky-n4utji15

    He is Jewish ethnicity, however his children are baptised Eastern Orthodox
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,090
    Scott_xP said:

    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    isam said:

    We must be approaching the time when people swallow their pride & admit that getting rid of Boris was a horrendous, possibly fatal, mistake by the Tories now.

    The bigger mistake was making him leader
    I wonder what would have happened had he not become leader. The PM would have been Hunt, it’s unlikely he would have called an election, and we’d have had the Tories in hock to the DUP with Brexit unresolved, or a second referendum in place, all the way through Covid
    Interesting counterfactual

    Covid might have seen a Government of National Unity.

    Whoever was PM, they wouldn't have partied while people died like BoZo
    He didn't die. He was just quite seriously ill for a while.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,940

    This is interesting.

    UK government lawyers say Israel is breaking international law, claims top Tory in leaked recording

    Ex-Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence official Alicia Kearns said at a Tory fundraiser that legal advice would mean the UK has to cease all arms sales to Israel without delay


    The British government has received advice from its own lawyers stating that Israel has breached international humanitarian law in Gaza but has failed to make it public, according to a leaked recording obtained by the Observer.

    The comments, made by the Conservative chair of the House of Commons select committee on foreign affairs, Alicia Kearns, at a Tory fundraising event on 13 March are at odds with repeated ministerial denials and evasion on the issue.

    On Saturday night, Kearns, a former Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence official, who has repeatedly pressed ministers, including foreign secretary David Cameron, on the legal advice they have received, stood by her comments and called for the government to come clean.

    “I remain convinced the government has completed its updated assessment on whether Israel is demonstrating a commitment to international humanitarian law, and that it has concluded that Israel is not demonstrating this commitment, which is the legal determination it has to make,” she said. “Transparency at this point is paramount, not least to uphold the international rules-based order.”

    The revelation will place Lord Cameron and prime minister Rishi Sunak under intense pressure because any such legal advice would mean the UK had to cease all arms sales to Israel without delay.

    Legal experts said that not to do so would risk putting the UK in breach of international law itself, as it would be seen as aiding and abetting war crimes by a country it was exporting arms to.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/30/uk-government-lawyers-say-israel-is-breaking-international-law-claims-top-tory-in-leaked-recording

    As a matter of interest who are Israel's main arms suppliers ?
    USA and I think Germany.
    Same as Ukraine if that’s the case.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,234
    Trent said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trent said:

    Elon Musk calls for peace in ukraine tonight.

    It was a tragic waste of life for Ukraine to attack a larger army that had defense in depth, minefields and stronger artillery when Ukraine lacked armor or air superiority! Any fool could have predicted that.

    My recommendation a year ago was for Ukraine to entrench and apply all resources to defense. Even then, it is tough to hold land that doesn’t have strong natural barriers.

    There is no chance of Russia taking all of Ukraine, as the local resistance would be extreme in the west, but Russia will certainly gain more land than they have today.

    The longer the war goes on, the more territory Russia will gain until they hit the Dnepr, which is tough to overcome. However, if the war lasts long enough, Odessa will fall too.

    Whether Ukraine loses all access to the Black Sea or not is, in my view, the real remaining question. I recommend a negotiated settlement before that happens.
    6:35 PM · Mar 30, 2024
    ·
    115.2K
    View
    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1774143429720596865?s=20

    Elon’s been pushing Putin propaganda (whether out of ignorance of malice) for a while now.
    About the only thing you and he have in common.
    Maybe hes more rational than you, not difficult by the way.
    Just hot air from you, old turbofan.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,820
    ajb said:

    The big question for me is, why are the LibDems doing so badly? I want to see the Tories lose, but I would rather see the Libdems become the official opposition than see Labour with a 300 seat majority. Or even a 200 seat majority! I mean, most of the electorate now know in their gut that to vote Tory is to vote for a greater chance of dying of untreated cancer, but the Lib dems are still losing to them. If they aren't going to overtake them now, they will never do it - they might as well shut up shop.

    Because the lib dems are neither liberal nor democratic and compulsive liars. No one wants to vote for a party like that. I would vote count binface rather than vote lib dem as would most
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,215
    edited March 30
    TimS said:

    MRPs are just Labour propaganda to undermine the Lib Dems in target seats.

    Discuss.

    That is questioning the integrity of BPC pollsters.

    MRPs might be crap but they are produced honestly.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,820
    Nigelb said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is interesting.

    UK government lawyers say Israel is breaking international law, claims top Tory in leaked recording

    Ex-Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence official Alicia Kearns said at a Tory fundraiser that legal advice would mean the UK has to cease all arms sales to Israel without delay


    The British government has received advice from its own lawyers stating that Israel has breached international humanitarian law in Gaza but has failed to make it public, according to a leaked recording obtained by the Observer.

    The comments, made by the Conservative chair of the House of Commons select committee on foreign affairs, Alicia Kearns, at a Tory fundraising event on 13 March are at odds with repeated ministerial denials and evasion on the issue.

    On Saturday night, Kearns, a former Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence official, who has repeatedly pressed ministers, including foreign secretary David Cameron, on the legal advice they have received, stood by her comments and called for the government to come clean.

    “I remain convinced the government has completed its updated assessment on whether Israel is demonstrating a commitment to international humanitarian law, and that it has concluded that Israel is not demonstrating this commitment, which is the legal determination it has to make,” she said. “Transparency at this point is paramount, not least to uphold the international rules-based order.”

    The revelation will place Lord Cameron and prime minister Rishi Sunak under intense pressure because any such legal advice would mean the UK had to cease all arms sales to Israel without delay.

    Legal experts said that not to do so would risk putting the UK in breach of international law itself, as it would be seen as aiding and abetting war crimes by a country it was exporting arms to.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/30/uk-government-lawyers-say-israel-is-breaking-international-law-claims-top-tory-in-leaked-recording

    The ICJ ruling this week says something similar.
    https://www.timesofisrael.com/icj-orders-israel-to-increase-humanitarian-aid-to-gaza-demands-report-in-30-days/
    Who actually cares about icj rulings...serious question...they can't enforce there rulings unless they can persuade a lot of countries to invade...they are more toothless than a duck. A complete and utter waste of time with highly paid people passing judgements that will never be prosecuted....abolish them or at least we should not contribute to the idiocy
    I don’t think we’d enjoy a world free of international law.
    It’s a long time since the UK was hegemonic.
    There is no such thing as international law if it cannot be enforced. Just the same as any national law that cant be enforced is a waste of time
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,565
    edited March 30
    Trent said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trent said:

    Elon Musk calls for peace in ukraine tonight.

    It was a tragic waste of life for Ukraine to attack a larger army that had defense in depth, minefields and stronger artillery when Ukraine lacked armor or air superiority! Any fool could have predicted that.

    My recommendation a year ago was for Ukraine to entrench and apply all resources to defense. Even then, it is tough to hold land that doesn’t have strong natural barriers.

    There is no chance of Russia taking all of Ukraine, as the local resistance would be extreme in the west, but Russia will certainly gain more land than they have today.

    The longer the war goes on, the more territory Russia will gain until they hit the Dnepr, which is tough to overcome. However, if the war lasts long enough, Odessa will fall too.

    Whether Ukraine loses all access to the Black Sea or not is, in my view, the real remaining question. I recommend a negotiated settlement before that happens.
    6:35 PM · Mar 30, 2024
    ·
    115.2K
    View
    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1774143429720596865?s=20

    Elon’s been pushing Putin propaganda (whether out of ignorance of malice) for a while now.
    About the only thing you and he have in common.
    Maybe hes more rational than you, not difficult by the way.

    @Trent on the last thread you made an outrageous post which I responded to, but the thread ended so I repeat it here because I was gobsmacked by it:

    You said 'The last years of peoples lives especially in dementia care homes can be utterly miserable. And we have to ask can we afford it.'

    You said that without any solution. I asked if we decide we can't afford it what do you propose? We can't just exterminate people because of cost. That is an appalling suggestion.

  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,406

    Lx

    TimS said:

    MRPs are just Labour propaganda to undermine the Lib Dems in target seats.

    Discuss.

    That is questioning the integrity of BPC pollsters.

    MRPs might be crap but they are produced honestly.
    Just to be clear, I’m not actually suggesting the pollsters are deliberately trying to undermine the Lib Dems in target seats.

    That’s just the unfortunate result of their methodology.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,129
    ajb said:

    The big question for me is, why are the LibDems doing so badly? I want to see the Tories lose, but I would rather see the Libdems become the official opposition than see Labour with a 300 seat majority. Or even a 200 seat majority! I mean, most of the electorate now know in their gut that to vote Tory is to vote for a greater chance of dying of untreated cancer, but the Lib dems are still losing to them. If they aren't going to overtake them now, they will never do it - they might as well shut up shop.

    Minor party squeeze, which applies to everyone except Con, Lab & SNP. Besides which, they have almost no identifiable platform in the public imagination.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,820
    kjh said:

    Trent said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trent said:

    Elon Musk calls for peace in ukraine tonight.

    It was a tragic waste of life for Ukraine to attack a larger army that had defense in depth, minefields and stronger artillery when Ukraine lacked armor or air superiority! Any fool could have predicted that.

    My recommendation a year ago was for Ukraine to entrench and apply all resources to defense. Even then, it is tough to hold land that doesn’t have strong natural barriers.

    There is no chance of Russia taking all of Ukraine, as the local resistance would be extreme in the west, but Russia will certainly gain more land than they have today.

    The longer the war goes on, the more territory Russia will gain until they hit the Dnepr, which is tough to overcome. However, if the war lasts long enough, Odessa will fall too.

    Whether Ukraine loses all access to the Black Sea or not is, in my view, the real remaining question. I recommend a negotiated settlement before that happens.
    6:35 PM · Mar 30, 2024
    ·
    115.2K
    View
    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1774143429720596865?s=20

    Elon’s been pushing Putin propaganda (whether out of ignorance of malice) for a while now.
    About the only thing you and he have in common.
    Maybe hes more rational than you, not difficult by the way.

    @Trent on the last thread you made an outrageous post which I responded to, but the thread ended so I repeat it here because I was gobsmacked by it:

    You said 'The last years of peoples lives especially in dementia care homes can be utterly miserable. And we have to ask can we afford it.'

    You said that without any solution. I asked if we decide we can't afford it what do you propose? We can't just exterminate people because of cost. That is an appalling suggestion.

    If we can't afford it what do you propose? Not for a moment saying I agree with Trent here just asking for your solution.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    We must be approaching the time when people swallow their pride & admit that getting rid of Boris was a horrendous, possibly fatal, mistake by the Tories now.

    Yes, removing Boris has cost 150 Tory MPs their seats on this poll, even if Rishi squeezes Reform it will still have cost 100 Tory MPs their seats.

    Had Truss remained it would have cost 200 Tory MPs their seats. Had Conservative members had a choice to keep Boris in 2022 or not they would have kept him. Tory MPs by removing him may ultimately have got a more competent PM in Sunak but it has cost far more of them their seats given even when he resigned polls had the Conservatives on 250+ seats with Boris.

    In Opposition therefore expect the membership to back a Boris loyalist and rightwinger as Leader of the Opposition and next Conservative Leader
    Your fallacy is acting as if nothing would have changed and the final poll under previous leaders would be the same as polling would be today.

    Change is constantly happening, the trend under Boris was clear decline and there's no reason to imagine that decline would have magically halted had he not been ousted.

    I suspect that Sunak will poll worse on election day than Truss would have, but there's no way of testing that counterfactual.
    Boris would not have leaked as heavily to Reform as Sunak did or as heavily to Labour as Truss did.

    Unless the Tories get less than 50 seats, Sunak will still win more Conservative MPs than the final polls before Truss resigned predicted
    Almost all pollsters now have Sunak's Tories polling as low as they had Truss's Tories. It's within margin of error for pretty much all of them now.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,335

    TimS said:

    MRPs are just Labour propaganda to undermine the Lib Dems in target seats.

    Discuss.

    That is questioning the integrity of BPC pollsters.

    MRPs might be crap but they are produced honestly.
    True, though the answer is only as good as the question. (I'm sure there is a more suggestive way of phrasing that, but I can't think what it is.)

    And the MRP methodolgy probably doesn't pick up Lib Dem activity well. Similarly, the "what would Reform voters do if Reform didn't stand" question doesn't allow for how existing Conservative supporters might feel about this. Any ankle Rishi shows on the right risks putting off voters on the centre.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,406
    edited March 30
    Meanwhile in the Alps where I’m due to arrive tomorrow, it’s Saharageddon.




    Concerns apparently about the possible radioactivity of the dust as it originates from a region of Algeria that was used for French nuclear testing in the 60s.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,215
    TimS said:

    Lx

    TimS said:

    MRPs are just Labour propaganda to undermine the Lib Dems in target seats.

    Discuss.

    That is questioning the integrity of BPC pollsters.

    MRPs might be crap but they are produced honestly.
    Just to be clear, I’m not actually suggesting the pollsters are deliberately trying to undermine the Lib Dems in target seats.

    That’s just the unfortunate result of their methodology.
    Ben Lauderdale who was the brains behind the original YouGov MRP said MRPs only become relevant/accurate in the three months before the election, prior to that they are noise.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,877
    Pagan2 said:

    kjh said:

    Trent said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trent said:

    Elon Musk calls for peace in ukraine tonight.

    It was a tragic waste of life for Ukraine to attack a larger army that had defense in depth, minefields and stronger artillery when Ukraine lacked armor or air superiority! Any fool could have predicted that.

    My recommendation a year ago was for Ukraine to entrench and apply all resources to defense. Even then, it is tough to hold land that doesn’t have strong natural barriers.

    There is no chance of Russia taking all of Ukraine, as the local resistance would be extreme in the west, but Russia will certainly gain more land than they have today.

    The longer the war goes on, the more territory Russia will gain until they hit the Dnepr, which is tough to overcome. However, if the war lasts long enough, Odessa will fall too.

    Whether Ukraine loses all access to the Black Sea or not is, in my view, the real remaining question. I recommend a negotiated settlement before that happens.
    6:35 PM · Mar 30, 2024
    ·
    115.2K
    View
    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1774143429720596865?s=20

    Elon’s been pushing Putin propaganda (whether out of ignorance of malice) for a while now.
    About the only thing you and he have in common.
    Maybe hes more rational than you, not difficult by the way.

    @Trent on the last thread you made an outrageous post which I responded to, but the thread ended so I repeat it here because I was gobsmacked by it:

    You said 'The last years of peoples lives especially in dementia care homes can be utterly miserable. And we have to ask can we afford it.'

    You said that without any solution. I asked if we decide we can't afford it what do you propose? We can't just exterminate people because of cost. That is an appalling suggestion.

    If we can't afford it what do you propose? Not for a moment saying I agree with Trent here just asking for your solution.
    Matthew Parris wrote quote a controversial article on the subject yesterday
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,150
    Thanks to all for the schooling on how MRP works. It still has some *interesting* seat predictions...
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