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Were you up for Sunak? – politicalbetting.com
Were you up for Sunak? – politicalbetting.com
New MRP by @Survation for @BestForBritain and @thetimes.https://t.co/0n3GP1qinQ pic.twitter.com/GdMxKZoYNK
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2024 is 'well, things can hardly get any worse"
North Norfolk is a Tory hold by 2% from Labour, LDs on 17%?! Nah......
In the round, interesting. Seat by seat, almost useless.
Edit: Or maybe not.
I would venture to suggest that unless their is a coup post the locals then Sunak will take the GE into November-December
As far as I am concerned I have long accepted Starmer will be in no 10 this year and frankly I am not bothered when
I should say I noted the Archbishop of Canterbury is to end his opposition in the HOC to the Rwanda Bill so we may well see if any flights take off later this Spring and the consequences if any for Sunak
That's more voodoo poll than a Baron Samedi Appreciation Society trip to Warsaw.
Imagine the chaos.
I suspect that's fine for the Lib-Con battleground (all those Conservative voters have to be falling off somewhere, and Labour must be picking up votes in a broad swathe of places) but not for the smaller parties.
In particular, unless there's a "have you put your back out from picking Focus leaflets off your doormat" variable in the regression, I wouldn't particularly trust it on the Lib Dem score.
Though on these figures, it hardly matters.
UK government lawyers say Israel is breaking international law, claims top Tory in leaked recording
Ex-Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence official Alicia Kearns said at a Tory fundraiser that legal advice would mean the UK has to cease all arms sales to Israel without delay
The British government has received advice from its own lawyers stating that Israel has breached international humanitarian law in Gaza but has failed to make it public, according to a leaked recording obtained by the Observer.
The comments, made by the Conservative chair of the House of Commons select committee on foreign affairs, Alicia Kearns, at a Tory fundraising event on 13 March are at odds with repeated ministerial denials and evasion on the issue.
On Saturday night, Kearns, a former Foreign Office and Ministry of Defence official, who has repeatedly pressed ministers, including foreign secretary David Cameron, on the legal advice they have received, stood by her comments and called for the government to come clean.
“I remain convinced the government has completed its updated assessment on whether Israel is demonstrating a commitment to international humanitarian law, and that it has concluded that Israel is not demonstrating this commitment, which is the legal determination it has to make,” she said. “Transparency at this point is paramount, not least to uphold the international rules-based order.”
The revelation will place Lord Cameron and prime minister Rishi Sunak under intense pressure because any such legal advice would mean the UK had to cease all arms sales to Israel without delay.
Legal experts said that not to do so would risk putting the UK in breach of international law itself, as it would be seen as aiding and abetting war crimes by a country it was exporting arms to.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/30/uk-government-lawyers-say-israel-is-breaking-international-law-claims-top-tory-in-leaked-recording
https://twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1774160648462557261
In Scotland it still has the SNP down 7 on 2019 but I expect that to be lower with Unionist tactical voting, especially for Labour
https://twitter.com/vmorkevicius/status/1773802556998697160
How is this different from ISIS ?
Other than having a member of the UN Security Council backing it up.
Even Dura might not go along with the new description of the SMO.
They should be far more aggressive than they are. They should have gone into Rafah ages ago.
But I respect the way they're trying to minimise civilian casualties. Unlike Hamas who aim to maximise them. And Egypt and the rest of the world kettling Palestinians into the war zone with no escape or safe haven for refugees outside it, as would be granted in any other conflict.
The Israeli government seems to have lost its humanity and is using starvation as a weapon .
No.
I don't believe some of the seat by seat commentary offered. It reads off. But -
1) If anything on this scale happens then the desire of the electorate is to eviscerate the Tory Party. That level of range produces all kinds of mad results
2) Just how many entrails are extracted depends on how organised the voters are. Swing voting behind the best placed challenger can see people winning from 3rd and Portillo moments
3) Someone mentioned ReFUK voters. Remember that the ex Tories amongst their set see the Tory party as quislings. The non-Tories don't care for their fate either. And Farage? The harder the Tories get beaten the better for him.
If Sunak has a choice, the decision will be indecision - as long as physically possible. But to have that luxury he first has to survive the May putsch...
When Boris resigned however the Tories were projected around 250+ seats, so removing him has simply seen Tory votes shift to Reform while failing to win back many voters lost to Labour or the LDs
Whatever Happened to the Urban Doom Loop?
America’s superstar cities have avoided the post-pandemic death spiral—so far, anyway.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/03/urban-doom-loop-american-cities/677847/
… Twenty-five of America’s 26 largest downtowns have more residents today than they did on the eve of the pandemic. Meanwhile, both violent and property crime plummeted in cities across the country in 2022 and 2023 (Washington, D.C., was a notable exception), and some other threats to public order, such as shoplifting, appear to have been overstated...
Rishi 23 44
Penny 28 43
Ref on 11, LD on 11(9 with Penny), Green 6, SNP 4
Not their standard methodology as have not done their DK splitting so not comparable to their usual output according to Luke Tryl
Some rearkable findings there. Guildford (kjh's base) is Con 27 Lab 28 LD 29. Godalming (Hunt's seat, where I was based) Con 33 LD 32 LD 25. My bet with Andy Cooke on Didcot and Wantage looking good: Con 33 Lab 38 LD 17. Basically reinforces the case for the LibDems to concentrate on the top targets.
Israel is fighting an existential war for its survival, it's entitled to proportionately seek to destroy Hamas and its doing so.
Some people here object to the very notion of seeking to destroy Hamas and don't want Israel to win this war.
It was a tragic waste of life for Ukraine to attack a larger army that had defense in depth, minefields and stronger artillery when Ukraine lacked armor or air superiority! Any fool could have predicted that.
My recommendation a year ago was for Ukraine to entrench and apply all resources to defense. Even then, it is tough to hold land that doesn’t have strong natural barriers.
There is no chance of Russia taking all of Ukraine, as the local resistance would be extreme in the west, but Russia will certainly gain more land than they have today.
The longer the war goes on, the more territory Russia will gain until they hit the Dnepr, which is tough to overcome. However, if the war lasts long enough, Odessa will fall too.
Whether Ukraine loses all access to the Black Sea or not is, in my view, the real remaining question. I recommend a negotiated settlement before that happens.
6:35 PM · Mar 30, 2024
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https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1774143429720596865?s=20
I said as much 4 years ago..
Nature abhors a vacuum, even if the Tories go down to single digits a la Canada 1993 then they or a successor will eventually come back, a la Canada 2006.
This current lot though deserve to be terminated. They deserve time in the Opposition benches, or no benches at all, to understand why they've been evicted and that they need to do better. That they need to appeal to more than the pure only ever voted Tory HYUFDs of this country.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/icj-orders-israel-to-increase-humanitarian-aid-to-gaza-demands-report-in-30-days/
https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1774133023417553283
Had Truss remained it would have cost 200 Tory MPs their seats. Had Conservative members had a choice to keep Boris in 2022 or not they would have kept him. Tory MPs by removing him may ultimately have got a more competent PM in Sunak but it has cost far more of them their seats given even when he resigned polls had the Conservatives on 250+ seats with Boris.
In Opposition therefore expect the membership to back a Boris loyalist and rightwinger as Leader of the Opposition and next Conservative Leader
Meanwhile, a big Survation poll had Lab 19% ahead and Reform UK on 8%. Cons plus Reform are on 34.7% - still more than 10% behind Lab.
In these circumstances why on earth would the blessed Nigel call off the dogs. He needs the Cons to know just how much they need him and a result anywhere within a hundred miles of this will do that in spades!
About the only thing you and he have in common.
Covid might have seen a Government of National Unity.
Whoever was PM, they wouldn't have partied while people died like BoZo
Change is constantly happening, the trend under Boris was clear decline and there's no reason to imagine that decline would have magically halted had he not been ousted.
I suspect that Sunak will poll worse on election day than Truss would have, but there's no way of testing that counterfactual.
Seat by seat? 15,000 / 650 seats = 23 per seat. Which is subsampletastic.
referendumers, relied on him being PM. Getting rid meant the 2019 vote fractured, and Rishi trying to be Boris lite put off the Cameroons. The worst of both worlds achieved
Unless the Tories get less than 50 seats, Sunak will still win more Conservative MPs than the final polls before Truss resigned predicted
We’re of no real significance to them.
Also of interest - and I bet few PBers are aware of the fact - is that the US has been in effect legally obligated to maintain Israel’s regional military superiority, since 2008, by this legislation:
https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/22/2776#
22 U.S. Code § 2776 - Reports and certifications to Congress on military exports
Whereas I am with you (because of high Labour polling and low LD polling) that Labour will come through strongly in seats where the LD are second and take some of them from the Tories or come 2nd and push the LDs back to 3rd but I do think the figures quoted above are not realistic where the LDs are the clear challengers. I find it mindboggling that Lab can be on 28 in Guildford where they have little presence. I clearly have less knowledge than you re Godalming and it is unclear which figure is Lab and which is LD because of the typo, but it seems unlikely that Lab are that high. What is your view?
Source for this assertion?????
Especially considering the MASS OF EVIDENCE that the UKR President is . . . wait for it . . . Jewish.
For example:
The Jewish Chronicle - How Jewish is Volodymyr Zelensky?
The Ukrainian President is hailed as one of the few Jewish world leaders not from Israel, but how Jewish is he?
. . . . Days before taking office in 2019, Zelensky put flowers on the grave of his Jewish grandfather, who fought the Nazis in World War II. . . .
He revealed on CNN that his great-grandparents were killed by the Nazis in a blaze that consumed their entire village.
However, his grandmother escaped Hitler in an evacuation of Jews to Kazakhstan. . . .
Zelensky said he grew up in an “ordinary Soviet Jewish family,” which was to say, not very religious, since “religion didn’t exist in the Soviet state as such.”
In January 2020, during the commemoration in Israel of the 75th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz, Zelensky told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a story about a family of four brothers.
“Three of them, their parents and their families became victims of the Holocaust. All of them were shot by German occupiers who invaded Ukraine,” he said. “The fourth brother survived. … Two years after the war, he had a son, and in 31 years, he had a grandson. In 40 more years, that grandson became president, and he is standing before you today, Mr. Prime Minister.”
. . . . Historian Mr Shchupak thought Zelensky’s background played “zero role” in the election campaign - aside from a few posts on social media, which included a comment on Facebook by an adviser to Ukrainian President Poroshenko that “the president of Ukraine must be Ukrainian and Christian”.
“Everybody in Ukraine knows that Zelensky is a Jew,” Mr. Shchupak said. “He is a typical product of a secular intellectual Jewish family. How can this happen in a country that Russia says is run by fascists?” . . .
How important is Zelensky's Jewishness to him?
Zelensky's "Jewishness is important for him," said Nathan Sharansky, who spent years in a Soviet Gulag accused of treason for seeking permission to move to Israel.
He is not "a Jew who is making secret of his Jewishness and he is not a Jew who is looking for some other identity," Sharansky told AFP. . . .
https://www.thejc.com/news/world/how-jewish-is-volodymyr-zelensky-n4utji15
The poll essentially builds a model on characteristics associated with voting for particular parties and then applies that model to known (census?) data for each seat.
It may be a crap model, but it's not doing seat predictions on a tiny sample.
It wasn't a mistake because Boris's behaviour had made his leadership untenable.
Opinion polls aren't more accurate based on being larger, just ask the Literary Digest and its suggested President Alf Landon.
Polls are accurate if they have a good methodology over a good size, the size just needs to be appropriate to its methodology.
And the seat by seat predictions aren't based upon respondents in that seat.
Discuss.
It’s a long time since the UK was hegemonic.
Not a good idea in my opinion. First thing that comes to mind is kids will be bullied at school over this
🚨 NEW: The Tories are planning a league table for migrant crime
[@Telegraph]
https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1773842969176469547?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Makes me want to puke . . . all over some scum-sucking pimp-for Putin.
Same as Ukraine if that’s the case.
MRPs might be crap but they are produced honestly.
@Trent on the last thread you made an outrageous post which I responded to, but the thread ended so I repeat it here because I was gobsmacked by it:
You said 'The last years of peoples lives especially in dementia care homes can be utterly miserable. And we have to ask can we afford it.'
You said that without any solution. I asked if we decide we can't afford it what do you propose? We can't just exterminate people because of cost. That is an appalling suggestion.
That’s just the unfortunate result of their methodology.
And the MRP methodolgy probably doesn't pick up Lib Dem activity well. Similarly, the "what would Reform voters do if Reform didn't stand" question doesn't allow for how existing Conservative supporters might feel about this. Any ankle Rishi shows on the right risks putting off voters on the centre.
Concerns apparently about the possible radioactivity of the dust as it originates from a region of Algeria that was used for French nuclear testing in the 60s.