Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

We may need to revise our summer plans – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 27 in General
imageWe may need to revise our summer plans – politicalbetting.com

Is a summer election becoming more likely? Sources have always insisted to me that those around the PM wanted to go for a November election, but they are now talking about what happens if the PM faces a confidence vote after May elections… 1/ https://t.co/1NKv27qbdn

Read the full story here

«134

Comments

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,900
    I'm beginning to think a late June or early July election is most likely.
    He's going to try and get a flight to Rwanda off then call it after the inevitable confidence vote after May 2.
    If he accepts its over for closing the gap to HP he will go earlier and try and minimise damage.
    Tory GE 2024 is 'operation get as close to 30% as possible'
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,662

    I'm beginning to think a late June or early July election is most likely.
    He's going to try and get a flight to Rwanda off then call it after the inevitable confidence vote after May 2.
    If he accepts its over for closing the gap to HP he will go earlier and try and minimise damage.
    Tory GE 2024 is 'operation get as close to 30% as possible'

    If we get some decent weather (that's a pretty massive IF) then I agree. There might be a feel-better buzz, with the sun out, which could save a few seats

    Summer makes sense

    Late autumn will inevitably be depressing and people will be even angrier. So Sunak should do it. June or July
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,344
    3rd.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,816
    Evening again all :)

    The polls continue to look awful for the Conservatives with the Budget generating no bounce whatsoever thus far.

    The May local elections won't be as bad as last year because there aren't as many seats being fought. Wiki says 955 Conservative seats so what would be a bad result? 300, 400, 500 losses? I'd be looking at some key councils and the mayoral contests not just in London but elsewhere.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,900
    edited March 27
    Leon said:

    I'm beginning to think a late June or early July election is most likely.
    He's going to try and get a flight to Rwanda off then call it after the inevitable confidence vote after May 2.
    If he accepts its over for closing the gap to HP he will go earlier and try and minimise damage.
    Tory GE 2024 is 'operation get as close to 30% as possible'

    If we get some decent weather (that's a pretty massive IF) then I agree. There might be a feel-better buzz, with the sun out, which could save a few seats

    Summer makes sense

    Late autumn will inevitably be depressing and people will be even angrier. So Sunak should do it. June or July
    Announce it on the first flight to Rwanda with an immigrant in a headlock.
    Something eye catching like that

    #whosaidsarcasmwasdead
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,900
    stodge said:

    Evening again all :)

    The polls continue to look awful for the Conservatives with the Budget generating no bounce whatsoever thus far.

    The May local elections won't be as bad as last year because there aren't as many seats being fought. Wiki says 955 Conservative seats so what would be a bad result? 300, 400, 500 losses? I'd be looking at some key councils and the mayoral contests not just in London but elsewhere.

    450 plus is catastrophic, 300 and under an OK night
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,348
    June makes sense. In my industry I'm aware of a certain amount of what could be thought of as last minute pre-election ministerial activity. I'll have a small bet on June at those prices.
  • Taz said:

    FPT for @Cookie

    Layla Moran did indeed oppose a new reservoir.

    Classic NIMBY

    https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/19855745.plans-huge-reservoir-abingdon-explained/

    Mind you Green councillors oppose solar farms in their area all the time.

    Bart is someone I rarely agree with but he is right on his "Screw the NIMBY" view.

    Solar farms are an eyesore and generate leccy when we don't need it, and don't generate when we do.

    I'd be opposing them if I was a councillor.
    There's no such thing as leccy when we don't need it.

    Especially as we become more battery based.

    You're typical NIMBY scum, with all due respect. Opposing housing, infrastructure, utilities, all par for the course.
    There is also no such thing as food when we don't need it, and that's a much better use of agricultural land. I am disappointed that as an avowed free marketeer you are so vituperative in your defence of a poor method of power generation that is incapable of surviving in this country without subsidy, or forcing companies into energy purchase agreements via legislation. Even solar farms in Arizona have difficulties with viability - their presence in rainy Britain is an affront to common sense and the free market.
    What subsidies? There haven't been any on solar for many years now.

    As a free marketeer if someone wants to use their own land to generate power then they should be able to do so.

    Their land, their choice, free market.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,215
    Limited by what I can say but keep an eye on Thames Water.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,900
    What's his realistic aim now in a GE?
    40 - 30 and the North side of 175 seats, hope he can cobble together 200?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987
    edited March 27
    I was told June or July by the local Tory candidate but without any backing evidence. I didn't believe her but nevertheless I've had a nibble on June and July at 40 and 50. Keeps it green.
  • TrentTrent Posts: 150
    Leon said:

    I'm beginning to think a late June or early July election is most likely.
    He's going to try and get a flight to Rwanda off then call it after the inevitable confidence vote after May 2.
    If he accepts its over for closing the gap to HP he will go earlier and try and minimise damage.
    Tory GE 2024 is 'operation get as close to 30% as possible'

    If we get some decent weather (that's a pretty massive IF) then I agree. There might be a feel-better buzz, with the sun out, which could save a few seats

    Summer makes sense

    Late autumn will inevitably be depressing and people will be even angrier. So Sunak should do it. June or July
    Also why not time it to coincide with the feel good factor of the Euros ideally around when they start as England will still be in the tournament. He could call it for mid July hoping to benefit from an England win but thats a risk as more likely England will have crashed out in some humiliating manner.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,841

    Limited by what I can say but keep an eye on Thames Water.

    Unsurprising.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,914

    Taz said:

    FPT for @Cookie

    Layla Moran did indeed oppose a new reservoir.

    Classic NIMBY

    https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/19855745.plans-huge-reservoir-abingdon-explained/

    Mind you Green councillors oppose solar farms in their area all the time.

    Bart is someone I rarely agree with but he is right on his "Screw the NIMBY" view.

    Solar farms are an eyesore and generate leccy when we don't need it, and don't generate when we do.

    I'd be opposing them if I was a councillor.
    There's no such thing as leccy when we don't need it.

    Especially as we become more battery based.

    You're typical NIMBY scum, with all due respect. Opposing housing, infrastructure, utilities, all par for the course.
    There is also no such thing as food when we don't need it, and that's a much better use of agricultural land. I am disappointed that as an avowed free marketeer you are so vituperative in your defence of a poor method of power generation that is incapable of surviving in this country without subsidy, or forcing companies into energy purchase agreements via legislation. Even solar farms in Arizona have difficulties with viability - their presence in rainy Britain is an affront to common sense and the free market.
    What subsidies? There haven't been any on solar for many years now.

    As a free marketeer if someone wants to use their own land to generate power then they should be able to do so.

    Their land, their choice, free market.
    Quite: and if you generate power that offsets a cost. It becomes tax free income.

    It's why the returns on solar, in post tax terms, are often better than they appear.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,215

    What's his realistic aim now in a GE?
    40 - 30 and the North side of 175 seats, hope he can cobble together 200?

    His target is 166, which would be one more than 1997.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,900

    Limited by what I can say but keep an eye on Thames Water.

    https://twitter.com/MarkKleinmanSky/status/1773061954799652968?s=19
    This blowing up and costing us a fortune?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,348
    Trent said:

    Leon said:

    I'm beginning to think a late June or early July election is most likely.
    He's going to try and get a flight to Rwanda off then call it after the inevitable confidence vote after May 2.
    If he accepts its over for closing the gap to HP he will go earlier and try and minimise damage.
    Tory GE 2024 is 'operation get as close to 30% as possible'

    If we get some decent weather (that's a pretty massive IF) then I agree. There might be a feel-better buzz, with the sun out, which could save a few seats

    Summer makes sense

    Late autumn will inevitably be depressing and people will be even angrier. So Sunak should do it. June or July
    Also why not time it to coincide with the feel good factor of the Euros ideally around when they start as England will still be in the tournament. He could call it for mid July hoping to benefit from an England win but thats a risk as more likely England will have crashed out in some humiliating manner.
    England men's football team no longer generate a feel good factor. They're just another thing to argue about.
  • Heh, I said June election
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,215

    Limited by what I can say but keep an eye on Thames Water.

    https://twitter.com/MarkKleinmanSky/status/1773061954799652968?s=19
    This blowing up and costing us a fortune?
    Aye, nationalisation.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,900

    What's his realistic aim now in a GE?
    40 - 30 and the North side of 175 seats, hope he can cobble together 200?

    His target is 166, which would be one more than 1997.
    I reckon he wants a 2005 seat outcome, but to get 200 he will need his polling figure to start with a 3. Can't see it
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,130
    Nice tip @TSE

    I'm nibbling.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,979
    Have incidents like this lost their shock value?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13245741/Man-fighting-life-stabbed-train-police-launch-manhunt-knifeman.html

    Terrifying footage shows the moment a knifeman armed with a huge blade attacked a man on a train full of shocked passengers.

    The man has been left fighting for his life in hospital after being stabbed on the train at Beckenham Junction this afternoon.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,900

    Limited by what I can say but keep an eye on Thames Water.

    https://twitter.com/MarkKleinmanSky/status/1773061954799652968?s=19
    This blowing up and costing us a fortune?
    Aye, nationalisation.
    A Tory staple over the centuries
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Trent said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Trent said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    If I was under 30 I think that the triple lock would have me looking seriously for emigration. It is an outrageous penalty on the young and poor for the benefit of the old and comfortable.

    The full state pension is currently a meagre £10,600 pa, lower than most (all?) comparable countries, and not much to live on if a pensioner has no other significant source of income. It would be better policy to maintain the triple lock until the differential narrows further, while at the same time using the tax system to claw back much more money from those who also benefit from a significant private/public sector pension and/or large savings.
    It isn't a lot.

    However, imagine a world with 30 people in it. 10 are pensioners. 5 are stay at home parents or otherwise not working. 5 are children. And 10 are in work.

    In that scenario, £10k of every worker's income goes off to pay pensions, before *any* other expenses.

    The issue is not the size of the pension, it is the fact that what was affordable when you had lots of people of working age, and few pensioners, becomes very unaffordable if you have rising life expectancy and a low birth rate.
    The alternative is to raise the retirement age of course (having duly notified everyone as per the WASPI women who seem strikingly uninterested in any news).
    Before we raise the pension age too far, is it actually feasible to have 70-year-old brickies, roofers and firefighters? It's a bit like the PB Covid WFH discussion when we've all got cosy white collar jobs and the most strenuous thing we do all day is open a laptop. How many 70-year-old nurses does it take to turn a patient over?
    Also unless things change, currently life expectancy has peaked and isn't growing any more, actually it might be falling.

    So why is future pensioners retirement age being lifted to pay for current pensioners getting increases?

    Especially given its the boomer generation that is unaffordable and didn't save and public savings for their own retirement despite knowing about the demographics for decades.
    Yes as Foxy rightly pointed out peoples health is now deteriorating. The point foxy made about covid damaging peoples frontal lobes is extremely worrying. We could both be looking at lower life expectancy and economic decline.
    What utter tosh:

    People under the age of 40 are dramatically healthier than their parents, they don't smoke, they dribk less and they are much more likely to exercise.

    If you look at metrics like blood pressure, resting heart rate, etc., then the young adults of today are in dramatically better shape than their parents.
    Have you seen the levels of obesity about now. Your argument may just hold in a global city like London but not in the rest of the uk. Look at photos from the 1970s people were much slimmer. They were also much more active pre computers and smartphones.
    All the data is publicly available, and - yes - we are (on average) a bit fatter.

    But that is literally the only stat that has moved in the wrong direction. Every other measure of public health, particularly for the young, has moved for the better.

    And that's true everywhere in the UK, not just in London.
    British lige expectancy has fared worse than any other major economy 🤷

    https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/news/2023/uk-drops-new-global-ranking-life-expectancy
    A lot of this (but not all) is immigration. We are importing people from poor countries with bad health and bad diets, and a tendency to do dysgenic things, so the overall life expectancy goes down, child mortality goes up, and so on

    Ditto America
    "They’re not sending their best. They’re not sending you. They’re sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re bringing bad habits and terrible diets. And some, I assume, are good people.”
    What I am saying is not controversial

    We have a lot of immigration from Pakistan. In Pakistan life expectancy is 66

    https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/pakistan-life-expectancy

    If you import a lot of Pakistanis then UK national life expectancy will, on average, decline. Ditto African countries, India, Bangladesh, and so forth. As the migrants assimilate one can hope that their life expectancy will improve, but it won't if they keep importing brides and husbands from the homeland, and it really won't improve if these spouses are first cousins
    You strain quite hard to blame immigrants for an awful lot of things. Not sure why. Bit of 'lib baiting' perchance? Like with all the "importance of IQ" talk. Yes, very possibly. I prefer that explanation to the main alternative anyway.

    Just reading Trump's quote again, though, it's pretty hilarious. "They aren't sending their best. They aren't sending YOU" he says ... directly to the teeming mass of bottom drawer knuckle-draggers who make up his MAGA rally crowds.
    It's just a fact. A lot of our gravest problems - from housing to healthcare - stem from an insane policy of mass immigration into an already crowded country with already creaking infrastructure. Migration is at lunatic levels now - 1.4m in two years. This is utterly unsustainable (and the Tories must take the blame for much of this, they've had 14 years to fix it and actually made it worse)

    This might make effete lefties like you uncomfortable, but it is the case. I'm not saying it to "bait" anyone, I'm saying it because it is the truth, and until the nation faces up to this, things will only get worse. Importing millions of people, as a matter of policy, is a Ponzi scheme

    it will be very interesting to see where Starmer goes on this
    It is not a 'fact' that a lot of our gravest problems stem from immigration. It's an opinion arising from a mental image. In this case the mental image is that of 'us' here on 'our' little island being compromised and crowded out by too many of 'them' from places 'we' have no affinity for. That's where you start, because that's how you feel, and you go looking for 'data' and 'argument' to support it. But it's the feeling that's authentic not the data or the argument.
    So you think we can import 1.4m people every two years for ever and ever, and it will never cause problems. That is the reductio ad absurdam of your stance

    You're not a serious person, really, are you? You are a cluster of quasi-fashionable opinions, to which you have never really applied much thought
    No, that rate isn't tenable for long. I doubt anybody thinks otherwise.

    I don't know about how 'serious' a person I am. I do often find myself more interested in why people say certain things than I am in what they are saying.

    Eg here with you and immigration.
    Has it ever occurred to you that my life would be MUCH easier if I just went with the flow and agreed with all the feeble Woke bollocks that you believe? For a quiet life?

    Because it would make things a whole lot simpler. For me. Flint knapping is a very left wing industry, and anyone with even vaguely right of centre opinions treads a significantly dangerous path. I could therefore just pretend to be a Woke idiot, and have a much easier time. I have friends who do exactly that, I know they are Tory or rightwing or have firm views on culture wars, migration, trans, etc etc etc, but they zip their mouths because they work in media/arts/academe/law, and they pretend they are leftwing, or they pretend they are neutral and have no political beliefs at all

    However, I cannot deny what I see with my own eyes, and I am not going to dumb myself down

    What do you risk, intellectually and professionally, being yet another lefty in Hampstead? Absolutely nothing

    You are very typical of your late Boomer/early Gen X age cohort - Johnny Rotten, Julie Burchill, Tony Parsons, Toby Young, Nigel Farage, Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees Mogg etc etc.
    I’m really not. A lot of those people started on the left and moved right

    Others are from posho Tory families

    I was right wing fron the age of about 14 when i realised that it is a better representation of reality. If anything I have mellowed since my early ultra-libertarian days

    I do sometimes enjoy being contrary, which makes up for the undoubted hassle and danger of being right wing in my world

    I was at school with Toby Young. He hasn't changed.

    Being right wing when we were young was far more normal than it is now.

    You have a ready audience for your views in the Spectator, the Telegraph etc. Given how the New Statesman is going, you might even have a chance there. Spruce up and you could make it onto GBNews! And you have made your money, so there is no huge pressure to conform to the whims of younger commissioning editors. It's really not risky for boomers to spout right wing opinions. Most have them. Our generation is the Tories' last bastion - and where would Reform be without blokes over the age of 55?

    I don't know who you are talking about, my second job is writing for the Gazette. My first job is knapping sex toys, and let me assure you the young staff in most lithic pleasure-gizmo offices are incredibly Woke, it's almost as bad as, say, publishing - where anyone with a vaguely rightwing stance keeps completely quiet if they want a nice career
    Why is 'right wing' incompatible with any sane definition of 'woke' ?

    Wasn't slavery bad? Are we equal at birth, regardless of colour, background, ethnicity, sex, etc?
    Its entirely possible to be both. I am unabashedly both right wing and woke, unless you include either veganism or anti car mentality within woke.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,900
    Gordon 'I saved the banks'
    Rishi 'I saved the sewage'
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,872
    edited March 27
    Leon said:

    I'm beginning to think a late June or early July election is most likely.
    He's going to try and get a flight to Rwanda off then call it after the inevitable confidence vote after May 2.
    If he accepts its over for closing the gap to HP he will go earlier and try and minimise damage.
    Tory GE 2024 is 'operation get as close to 30% as possible'

    If we get some decent weather (that's a pretty massive IF) then I agree. There might be a feel-better buzz, with the sun out, which could save a few seats

    Summer makes sense

    Late autumn will inevitably be depressing and people will be even angrier. So Sunak should do it. June or July
    That's good advice, but I can't see it happening.

    Another interesting strategy is September, but call the date now to stop the speculation (about the date and his leadership).

    Ozzy suggested naming the date now on his podcast with Ed Balls recently.
  • Limited by what I can say but keep an eye on Thames Water.

    https://twitter.com/MarkKleinmanSky/status/1773061954799652968?s=19
    This blowing up and costing us a fortune?
    Aye, nationalisation.
    It should just go bankrupt and be sold at pennies on the pound to someone else.

    Let the shareholders and bond holders face the consequences of their failure to do due diligence.

    Happens regularly with American utilities and airlines etc. Failed businesses being allowed to fail is part of a healthy free market, that's what bankruptcy orders are for.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,392
    For the first time ever, you can listen to one Sean Thomas talking on this Spectator discussion page.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/podcast/william-moore-sean-thomas-matt-ridley-lionel-shriver-and-kate-andrews/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,130
    Don't give the Tories ideas they will nick in an autumn statement Gordon!!


    Robert Peston
    @Peston
    ·
    41m
    Gordon Brown says the government can raise billions of pounds from banks. Read details in attached blog and watch full interview on #Peston at 10.45 ITV and via
    @itvpeston
    on X at 9

    https://twitter.com/Peston?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
  • Limited by what I can say but keep an eye on Thames Water.

    https://twitter.com/MarkKleinmanSky/status/1773061954799652968?s=19
    This blowing up and costing us a fortune?
    Why should it cost us a single penny?

    Shareholders and bond holders made their choice to invest. They should own the consequences of their choices.
  • TrentTrent Posts: 150
    Cookie said:

    Trent said:

    Leon said:

    I'm beginning to think a late June or early July election is most likely.
    He's going to try and get a flight to Rwanda off then call it after the inevitable confidence vote after May 2.
    If he accepts its over for closing the gap to HP he will go earlier and try and minimise damage.
    Tory GE 2024 is 'operation get as close to 30% as possible'

    If we get some decent weather (that's a pretty massive IF) then I agree. There might be a feel-better buzz, with the sun out, which could save a few seats

    Summer makes sense

    Late autumn will inevitably be depressing and people will be even angrier. So Sunak should do it. June or July
    Also why not time it to coincide with the feel good factor of the Euros ideally around when they start as England will still be in the tournament. He could call it for mid July hoping to benefit from an England win but thats a risk as more likely England will have crashed out in some humiliating manner.
    England men's football team no longer generate a feel good factor. They're just another thing to argue about.
    Which is why he would be mad t call the election early July with a risk England have just crashed out of the euros likely on penalties.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,914

    Limited by what I can say but keep an eye on Thames Water.

    https://twitter.com/MarkKleinmanSky/status/1773061954799652968?s=19
    This blowing up and costing us a fortune?
    Why should it cost us a single penny?

    Shareholders and bond holders made their choice to invest. They should own the consequences of their choices.
    Indeed: that's exactly what happens. The administrators come in, the shareholders lose all their money, and the bondholders take a big haircut.

    And then someone else ends up owning the asset

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,606
    edited March 27

    It is time to accept that privatisation of utilities and the railways has been an unmitigated disaster.

    Mitigated disaster seems more balanced. Also would exempt telecoms from the disaster categorisation.
  • On topic - does this mean MoonRabbit's only mistake was not understanding just how slow on the uptake most of the muppets at No 10 are.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987

    Limited by what I can say but keep an eye on Thames Water.

    https://twitter.com/MarkKleinmanSky/status/1773061954799652968?s=19
    This blowing up and costing us a fortune?
    Aye, nationalisation.
    It should just go bankrupt and be sold at pennies on the pound to someone else.

    Let the shareholders and bond holders face the consequences of their failure to do due diligence.

    Happens regularly with American utilities and airlines etc. Failed businesses being allowed to not fail is part of a healthy free market, that's what bankruptcy orders are for.
    It can be bankrupted by OFWAT not agreeing to price rises and fining the company for discharges. It can then be nationalised for £1 and sorted.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,872

    Don't give the Tories ideas they will nick in an autumn statement Gordon!!


    Robert Peston
    @Peston
    ·
    41m
    Gordon Brown says the government can raise billions of pounds from banks. Read details in attached blog and watch full interview on #Peston at 10.45 ITV and via
    @itvpeston
    on X at 9

    https://twitter.com/Peston?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

    Eek. Absolutely right. What is he doing? They will simply pinch any good ideas (as proven by the nondoms and windfall tax debacles).

    KEEP MUM.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    Spain held its general election on 23rd July last year, Turnout went up.

    The problem for Sunak in having one in July is turds at the seaside and endless waves of small boats coming over from France. The optics of fighting a GE against such a backdrop are not great. But he has no decent choices now, does he? If I were him I really wouldn't want to be fighting an election with half my party looking across the Atlantic and very loudly cheering for Donald Trump.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,900

    Limited by what I can say but keep an eye on Thames Water.

    https://twitter.com/MarkKleinmanSky/status/1773061954799652968?s=19
    This blowing up and costing us a fortune?
    Why should it cost us a single penny?

    Shareholders and bond holders made their choice to invest. They should own the consequences of their choices.
    Because they'll nationalise it in a Tory fashion not in a 'how consequences of capitalism should function when it fails ' way
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,348

    It is time to accept that privatisation of utilities and the railways has been an unmitigated disaster.

    You nees to be very careful in using terms like 'unmitigated disaster'. I'm fairly sure there have been positives to both, not least the amount of private sector investment it brought. You might conclude that the nehatives outweigh the positives, but denying that there have been any positives devalues your argument.
    See also: Brexit.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,469
    edited March 27
    FPT: Endillion said: "In the case of the US, it is decidedly not well-behaved, as you have all sorts of extremes to contend with: hugely overweight mid-Westerners, very health-conscious West Coast types, and the massive underclass who can't access healthcare without going bankrupt."

    "Medicaid is the largest source of funding for medical and health-related services for people with low income in the United States, providing free health insurance to 85 million low-income and disabled people as of 2022;[3] in 2019, the program paid for half of all U.S. births.[4] As of 2017, the total annual cost of Medicaid was just over $600 billion, of which the federal government contributed $375 billion and states an additional $230 billion.[4] States are not required to participate in the program, although all have since 1982. In general, Medicaid recipients must be U.S. citizens or qualified non-citizens, and may include low-income adults, their children, and people with certain disabilities.[5] As of 2022 45% of those receiving Medicaid or CHIP were children."
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicaid

    It is, I think, fair to conclude that 85 million include most of the "massive underclass". Given the increase in costs since 2017, it seems likely that Medicaid now spends more than $8,000 per recipient, each year. (Endillion will want to compare that number with the current per person NHS spending.)

    But that's not all. Many elderly are eligible for both Medicaid and Medicare.

    It is certainly true that there are people in the US who can't "access health care" without substantial costs. But to say that this is true of an entire "massive underclass" ignores easily obtainable facts.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,900
    Knowing Rishi he will call it for late July and personally cost us the Euros by having a message of support piped info the stadium as Rashford runs in to take his pen
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,872
    Trying to work out whether June or July is the one to go for. Both are at 14 on BX so offer some value.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,606
    Cookie said:

    Trent said:

    Leon said:

    I'm beginning to think a late June or early July election is most likely.
    He's going to try and get a flight to Rwanda off then call it after the inevitable confidence vote after May 2.
    If he accepts its over for closing the gap to HP he will go earlier and try and minimise damage.
    Tory GE 2024 is 'operation get as close to 30% as possible'

    If we get some decent weather (that's a pretty massive IF) then I agree. There might be a feel-better buzz, with the sun out, which could save a few seats

    Summer makes sense

    Late autumn will inevitably be depressing and people will be even angrier. So Sunak should do it. June or July
    Also why not time it to coincide with the feel good factor of the Euros ideally around when they start as England will still be in the tournament. He could call it for mid July hoping to benefit from an England win but thats a risk as more likely England will have crashed out in some humiliating manner.
    England men's football team no longer generate a feel good factor. They're just another thing to argue about.
    Tory MPs will be having a go at the team pre and post tournament for some perceived misdemeanour whilst cheerleading them for reflected glory as they get through the groups and early knock out games. As coherent as the rest of their policies I suppose.
  • Limited by what I can say but keep an eye on Thames Water.

    https://twitter.com/MarkKleinmanSky/status/1773061954799652968?s=19
    This blowing up and costing us a fortune?
    Why should it cost us a single penny?

    Shareholders and bond holders made their choice to invest. They should own the consequences of their choices.
    Because they'll nationalise it in a Tory fashion not in a 'how consequences of capitalism should function when it fails ' way
    If they nationalise it, they're idiots.

    If they bailout the bond holders, they're borderline corrupt.

    There is no reason to get involved whatsoever. We have bankruptcy procedures, they should be followed. If nobody else steps in to buy the assets then the state should pick them up for £1 if nobody else offers any more.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,900

    Trying to work out whether June or July is the one to go for. Both are at 14 on BX so offer some value.

    He likely calls it when he gets a flight off the ground (if) so I reckon July
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,581

    I'm beginning to think a late June or early July election is most likely.
    He's going to try and get a flight to Rwanda off then call it after the inevitable confidence vote after May 2.
    If he accepts its over for closing the gap to HP he will go earlier and try and minimise damage.
    Tory GE 2024 is 'operation get as close to 30% as possible'

    Some of that makes sense (to a party that sees sin 1997 results as possible), but it just seems strange to take the massive hit that will be the Locals and then call a GE right after.

    At least TMay expected, and received, good local results.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,841

    It is time to accept that privatisation of utilities and the railways has been an unmitigated disaster.

    Mitigated disaster seems more balanced. Also would exempt telecoms from the disaster categorisation.
    Privatisation and nationalisation are tools in the toolbox. There are plenty of nationalisations that have been 'disastrous' as well.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,900

    Limited by what I can say but keep an eye on Thames Water.

    https://twitter.com/MarkKleinmanSky/status/1773061954799652968?s=19
    This blowing up and costing us a fortune?
    Why should it cost us a single penny?

    Shareholders and bond holders made their choice to invest. They should own the consequences of their choices.
    Because they'll nationalise it in a Tory fashion not in a 'how consequences of capitalism should function when it fails ' way
    If they nationalise it, they're idiots.

    If they bailout the bond holders, they're borderline corrupt.

    There is no reason to get involved whatsoever. We have bankruptcy procedures, they should be followed. If nobody else steps in to buy the assets then the state should pick them up for £1 if nobody else offers any more.
    Exactly, they'll do the former not what should happen
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,581
    Andy_JS said:

    For the first time ever, you can listen to one Sean Thomas talking on this Spectator discussion page.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/podcast/william-moore-sean-thomas-matt-ridley-lionel-shriver-and-kate-andrews/

    Fascinating, good thing I've not heard anything about people taking ayahuascar lately.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,872
    edited March 27

    It is time to accept that privatisation of utilities and the railways has been an unmitigated disaster.

    Depends whether you class telecoms as a utility? That has been a success IMO.

    Energy FAIL
    Rail FAIL
    Water MASSIVE FAIL
    Telecoms SUCCESS

    ...is my scorecard.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,828
    @Steven_Swinford
    EXCLUSIVE:

    Sir Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner praise Boris Johnson's vision for levelling up the nation as they accuse Rishi Sunak of killing it at birth

    They claim that Johnson's analysis of regional inequality was 'good' but that Sunak failed to back the policy and 'give regions the levers to make it happen'

    Starmer & Rayner are playing directly into Tory in-fighting over levelling up - Johnson has criticised Sunak over levelling up while Andy Street, West Midlands mayor, has accused govt of creating 'begging bowl culture" over levelling up funding

    Starmer and Rayner:

    'It’s understandable that working people might have become disillusioned or cynical, because one of the biggest tragedies of the past fourteen years is the sense that things can’t change. But they can and they will

    'The Tories started to understand this with the Levelling Up White Paper. Much of the analysis in it was good. And there were parts that talked a good game about how Britain needed to build up all parts of the country.

    'But the policy was killed at birth by the then Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, who refused to back it; the chaos and corruption of the Tory government under Johnson, and a failure to give regions the levers to make it happen.

    'The ‘cap in hand’ approach left places patronised not empowered. A few million pounds for local projects was not part of a coordinated strategy but part of a short-term giveaway – and local people have seen through it'
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,581
    edited March 27

    What's his realistic aim now in a GE?
    40 - 30 and the North side of 175 seats, hope he can cobble together 200?

    Turnout may be well down so if he gets 167 seats on low turnout he can argue it is a 2001 result not a 1997 result (or worse).

    Not actually any better in terms of seats of course, but by being more similar to 2001 it might make them feel that a return to power is only 9 years off, not 13 (or more).
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,241
    Another great pb thread: thank you @TSE

    I guess election fever was always likely as we entered the 5th year of the parliament but it’s exacerbated by Sunak’s woes. The trouble is, the more the media, rebels, and the Opposition circulate the idea the more it generates its own momentum.

    PMs who drag their heels or dither usually fare even worse than had they gone a little earlier: John Major, Gordon Brown, and arguably Jim Callaghan being examples.

    There hasn’t been a July election since 1945 and that was pretty exceptional. There hasn’t been an August one in the modern era.

    However, there’s plenty of good, solid, precedence for a June election.

    Personally I tend to the view that the Conservatives might do least badly in June than any of the remaining 7 alternatives.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,900
    kle4 said:

    I'm beginning to think a late June or early July election is most likely.
    He's going to try and get a flight to Rwanda off then call it after the inevitable confidence vote after May 2.
    If he accepts its over for closing the gap to HP he will go earlier and try and minimise damage.
    Tory GE 2024 is 'operation get as close to 30% as possible'

    Some of that makes sense (to a party that sees sin 1997 results as possible), but it just seems strange to take the massive hit that will be the Locals and then call a GE right after.

    At least TMay expected, and received, good local results.
    I agree, I'd have gone for May 2 myself but I dunno, maybe he thinks if the electorate punish in May they will be less motivated to punish again and they can say to those that stayed home but are anti Labour 'see what happens without your support, we need you' etc etc
    Also it may give a better steer on exactly where to implement firewall etc
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,473
    General Election: September 26th. July is next best chance.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,565

    Limited by what I can say but keep an eye on Thames Water.

    https://twitter.com/MarkKleinmanSky/status/1773061954799652968?s=19
    This blowing up and costing us a fortune?
    Aye, nationalisation.
    This bloody Corbyn government. They nationalise everything.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,581

    It is time to accept that privatisation of utilities and the railways has been an unmitigated disaster.

    Depends whether you class telecoms as a utility? That has been a success IMO.

    Energy FAIL
    Rail FAIL
    Water MASSIVE FAIL
    Telecoms SUCCESS

    ...is my scorecard.
    I don't have an inherent fervour for nationalisation, so as a blanket policy for anything I'm not in favour. But water and energy? People need to work much harder to persuade me just how good we apparently have it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,828
    kle4 said:

    it just seems strange to take the massive hit that will be the Locals and then call a GE right after.

    You have to remember though, that Richi is just really, really, really bad at politics.

    Then it starts to make sense...
  • It is time to accept that privatisation of utilities and the railways has been an unmitigated disaster.

    Privatisation is like democracy. Its the worst system available, apart from all others that have been tried.

    image
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,940

    It is time to accept that privatisation of utilities and the railways has been an unmitigated disaster.

    It certainly may be time for that useful phrase to all parts of the political spectrum in the face of ideology gone wrong, 'but it hasn't been tried properly'.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,765
    Cookie said:

    June makes sense. In my industry I'm aware of a certain amount of what could be thought of as last minute pre-election ministerial activity. I'll have a small bet on June at those prices.

    England v Denmark Euro 2024 match on Thursday 20 June at 17:00 - probably the group decider, so strike that date out.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,469
    edited March 27
    FPT: Indians of the American Southwest have exceptionally high levels of diabetes, partly because of genetics, partly because of the obesity so common in many of the tribes there: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK233089/

  • kle4 said:

    It is time to accept that privatisation of utilities and the railways has been an unmitigated disaster.

    Depends whether you class telecoms as a utility? That has been a success IMO.

    Energy FAIL
    Rail FAIL
    Water MASSIVE FAIL
    Telecoms SUCCESS

    ...is my scorecard.
    I don't have an inherent fervour for nationalisation, so as a blanket policy for anything I'm not in favour. But water and energy? People need to work much harder to persuade me just how good we apparently have it.
    Water has been a massive success, water quality is far, far better and discharges far, far lower than they were pre-privatisation.

    Those who are crying because there's any discharges at all need to look at what standards were like pre-privatisation. They were far worse.

    What we need though is to let the water firms face the consequences of their choices. Make a bad decision, you lose money, that's your fault, nobody else's. Discharge waste, you get fined, your fault, your consequence.

    With a nationalised firm, nobody takes accountability, if discharges happen they happen and neither fines nor losses mean anything to a nationalised firm.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,565

    Trying to work out whether June or July is the one to go for. Both are at 14 on BX so offer some value.

    He likely calls it when he gets a flight off the ground (if) so I reckon July
    The only flight he's bothered about is his own to LAX once he's out of Number 10.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,473
    Heathener said:

    Another great pb thread: thank you @TSE

    I guess election fever was always likely as we entered the 5th year of the parliament but it’s exacerbated by Sunak’s woes. The trouble is, the more the media, rebels, and the Opposition circulate the idea the more it generates its own momentum.

    PMs who drag their heels or dither usually fare even worse than had they gone a little earlier: John Major, Gordon Brown, and arguably Jim Callaghan being examples.

    There hasn’t been a July election since 1945 and that was pretty exceptional. There hasn’t been an August one in the modern era.

    However, there’s plenty of good, solid, precedence for a June election.

    Personally I tend to the view that the Conservatives might do least badly in June than any of the remaining 7 alternatives.

    Not June. This involves regrouping immediately after the 2nd May results. For a late June election Parliament dissolves on 22nd May, with an announcement several days at least before. This won't happen.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,872
    kle4 said:

    It is time to accept that privatisation of utilities and the railways has been an unmitigated disaster.

    Depends whether you class telecoms as a utility? That has been a success IMO.

    Energy FAIL
    Rail FAIL
    Water MASSIVE FAIL
    Telecoms SUCCESS

    ...is my scorecard.
    I don't have an inherent fervour for nationalisation, so as a blanket policy for anything I'm not in favour. But water and energy? People need to work much harder to persuade me just how good we apparently have it.
    Agreed, nor me. I don't want to nationalise fashion, or computing, or tea. But public utilities? – I guess the clue is in the name!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,150
    On topic - what an absolute knobber
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,284
    Thanks, TSE. Very interesting.

    What does Moon Rabbit think?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,872

    Knowing Rishi he will call it for late July and personally cost us the Euros by having a message of support piped info the stadium as Rashford runs in to take his pen

    :D
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,241
    Re the three June elections since 1945 the dates were:

    18 June 1970
    9 June 1983
    11 June 1987

    Suggesting earlier rather than later in the month.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,872

    It is time to accept that privatisation of utilities and the railways has been an unmitigated disaster.

    Privatisation is like democracy. Its the worst system available, apart from all others that have been tried.

    image
    You should check out Peston from a couple of weeks ago. Look at what privatisation did for investment in water... oh!
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,241

    kle4 said:

    It is time to accept that privatisation of utilities and the railways has been an unmitigated disaster.

    Depends whether you class telecoms as a utility? That has been a success IMO.

    Energy FAIL
    Rail FAIL
    Water MASSIVE FAIL
    Telecoms SUCCESS

    ...is my scorecard.
    I don't have an inherent fervour for nationalisation, so as a blanket policy for anything I'm not in favour. But water and energy? People need to work much harder to persuade me just how good we apparently have it.
    Water has been a massive success
    Come on BR. Water is a disaster.

    Anyway, let’s get back on topic?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,841
    Heathener said:

    kle4 said:

    It is time to accept that privatisation of utilities and the railways has been an unmitigated disaster.

    Depends whether you class telecoms as a utility? That has been a success IMO.

    Energy FAIL
    Rail FAIL
    Water MASSIVE FAIL
    Telecoms SUCCESS

    ...is my scorecard.
    I don't have an inherent fervour for nationalisation, so as a blanket policy for anything I'm not in favour. But water and energy? People need to work much harder to persuade me just how good we apparently have it.
    Water has been a massive success
    Come on BR. Water is a disaster.

    Anyway, let’s get back on topic?
    Water is the main privatisation that I feel was pointless. What innovation is possible in water supply?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,828
    @wizbates

    If you’re wondering what happened to Thames Water this is a good summary.

    They borrowed billions and paid it to execs and shareholders.

    Now it needs investment they want customers to pay more. If it goes bankrupt taxpayers will pick up the bill.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,828

    What innovation is possible in water supply?

    The innovative way the privateers (sic) have fleeced the taxpayer...
  • It is time to accept that privatisation of utilities and the railways has been an unmitigated disaster.

    Privatisation is like democracy. Its the worst system available, apart from all others that have been tried.

    image
    You should check out Peston from a couple of weeks ago. Look at what privatisation did for investment in water... oh!
    Indeed, the privatised water firms had a profit motive that they'd be fined if they discharged waste which meant they invested in and fixed the discharges and cleaned up our rivers and beaches considerably on pre-privatised standards.

    I would not want to go back to nationalised levels of waste being discharged into our rivers and beaches.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,241
    algarkirk said:

    Heathener said:

    Another great pb thread: thank you @TSE

    I guess election fever was always likely as we entered the 5th year of the parliament but it’s exacerbated by Sunak’s woes. The trouble is, the more the media, rebels, and the Opposition circulate the idea the more it generates its own momentum.

    PMs who drag their heels or dither usually fare even worse than had they gone a little earlier: John Major, Gordon Brown, and arguably Jim Callaghan being examples.

    There hasn’t been a July election since 1945 and that was pretty exceptional. There hasn’t been an August one in the modern era.

    However, there’s plenty of good, solid, precedence for a June election.

    Personally I tend to the view that the Conservatives might do least badly in June than any of the remaining 7 alternatives.

    Not June. This involves regrouping immediately after the 2nd May results. For a late June election Parliament dissolves on 22nd May, with an announcement several days at least before. This won't happen.
    I think the point is that he faces a possible ousting after May 2nd. So pre-empt it by calling an election. And others have said May 2nd might not look quite so bad because of the cycle of seats.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,604
    edited March 27

    Heathener said:

    kle4 said:

    It is time to accept that privatisation of utilities and the railways has been an unmitigated disaster.

    Depends whether you class telecoms as a utility? That has been a success IMO.

    Energy FAIL
    Rail FAIL
    Water MASSIVE FAIL
    Telecoms SUCCESS

    ...is my scorecard.
    I don't have an inherent fervour for nationalisation, so as a blanket policy for anything I'm not in favour. But water and energy? People need to work much harder to persuade me just how good we apparently have it.
    Water has been a massive success
    Come on BR. Water is a disaster.

    Anyway, let’s get back on topic?
    Water is the main privatisation that I feel was pointless. What innovation is possible in water supply?
    Plenty.

    If you discharge you get fined.

    If you get fined you lose money.

    Therefore there's a profit motive to not discharge, to not get fined.

    Innovation.

    Water levels improved dramatically post-privatisation. Rivers and beaches when water was nationalised were far, far, worse. This is an objective fact.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,469
    Every few years, there is a massive sewage spill in this area. To my distress, there seem to have been no significant political costs to the Democratic politicians who run Seattle and King County, from those spills.

    (Example: https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/thousands-gallons-raw-sewage-leak-into-lake-washington/ZE3E6WCDNBEOHNHNWOCQM5LC3Q/ )

    Why not? Perhaps because our journalists have become so partisan they treat these spills as natural accidents, rather than failures of elected officials.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,898
    I still think January….. ‘something will turn up’!

    One thing that infuriates Mrs C and myself is the repeated advertisements on Anglia TV for Anglian Water …… slogan ‘Love every drop.’
    Why are they spending money on TV advertising; we have no choice as to who supplies our water or collects our sewage.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,841

    It is time to accept that privatisation of utilities and the railways has been an unmitigated disaster.

    Privatisation is like democracy. Its the worst system available, apart from all others that have been tried.

    image
    You should check out Peston from a couple of weeks ago. Look at what privatisation did for investment in water... oh!
    As I said, privatisation and nationalisation are tools in a toolbox. You do not hammer in a screw... usually. Pick the right tool for the right job at the right time.

    Critics of railway privatisation have to explain the doubling of passenger usage, and the increase in safety. Then again, railways were never fully privatised, even in the days of Railtrack (whose safety record was not as bad as BR's...)

    In fact, there are three variables: the amount of private ownership, the amount of public ownership, and the amount of regulation...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,150

    Spain held its general election on 23rd July last year, Turnout went up.

    The problem for Sunak in having one in July is turds at the seaside and endless waves of small boats coming over from France. The optics of fighting a GE against such a backdrop are not great. But he has no decent choices now, does he? If I were him I really wouldn't want to be fighting an election with half my party looking across the Atlantic and very loudly cheering for Donald Trump.

    That's a great idea! We could have a small boats tally through the campaign.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,940
    edited March 27

    Heathener said:

    kle4 said:

    It is time to accept that privatisation of utilities and the railways has been an unmitigated disaster.

    Depends whether you class telecoms as a utility? That has been a success IMO.

    Energy FAIL
    Rail FAIL
    Water MASSIVE FAIL
    Telecoms SUCCESS

    ...is my scorecard.
    I don't have an inherent fervour for nationalisation, so as a blanket policy for anything I'm not in favour. But water and energy? People need to work much harder to persuade me just how good we apparently have it.
    Water has been a massive success
    Come on BR. Water is a disaster.

    Anyway, let’s get back on topic?
    Water is the main privatisation that I feel was pointless. What innovation is possible in water supply?
    Plenty.

    If you discharge you get fined.

    If you get fined you lose money.

    Therefore there's a profit motive to not discharge, to not get fined.

    Innovation.

    Water levels improved dramatically post-privatisation. Rivers and beaches when water was nationalised were far, far, worse. This is an objective fact.
    I thought one of the water companies' excuses is that we're only discovering the massive amounts of shite in the water because of massively improved monitoring? In that case how is an objective comparison possible?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,925
    There is a time when you just have to accept time's up.
    78-9
    late 92-97
    2008-10.
    Time for the economy to turn a corner really is desperation stuff.
    No one is predicting the kind of boom necessary for the majority to feel much better off soon.
  • TrentTrent Posts: 150
    Heathener said:

    Re the three June elections since 1945 the dates were:

    18 June 1970
    9 June 1983
    11 June 1987

    Suggesting earlier rather than later in the month.

    2001 was also June.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,335
    Logistics-wise, it looks like this:
    (first date is dissolution, so go back a week to allow for some washup, second one is election day:)

    30/04/2024 Tuesday 06/06/2024 Thursday
    08/05/2024 Wednesday 13/06/2024 Thursday
    15/05/2024 Wednesday 20/06/2024 Thursday
    22/05/2024 Wednesday 27/06/2024 Thursday
    30/05/2024 Thursday 04/07/2024 Thursday
    06/06/2024 Thursday 11/07/2024 Thursday
    12/06/2024 Wednesday 18/07/2024 Thursday

    after that, schools are closing for summer holidays (and I think some places break up even earlier.)

    It may well be better than waiting until the autumn, but going to the country in the immediate aftermath of a bad set of election results seems brave.

    (Yes, it's what Pedro Sanchez did, and it worked for him, but he had reasons and a plan. Plus the Latin Temprament.)
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,900
    Trent said:

    Heathener said:

    Re the three June elections since 1945 the dates were:

    18 June 1970
    9 June 1983
    11 June 1987

    Suggesting earlier rather than later in the month.

    2001 was also June.
    As was 2017
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,925

    I still think January….. ‘something will turn up’!

    One thing that infuriates Mrs C and myself is the repeated advertisements on Anglia TV for Anglian Water …… slogan ‘Love every drop.’
    Why are they spending money on TV advertising; we have no choice as to who supplies our water or collects our sewage.

    Of course, the "something" could be something bad.
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 476

    Trent said:

    Heathener said:

    Re the three June elections since 1945 the dates were:

    18 June 1970
    9 June 1983
    11 June 1987

    Suggesting earlier rather than later in the month.

    2001 was also June.
    As was 2017
    Then it was not 3 but 5?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,900

    Trent said:

    Heathener said:

    Re the three June elections since 1945 the dates were:

    18 June 1970
    9 June 1983
    11 June 1987

    Suggesting earlier rather than later in the month.

    2001 was also June.
    As was 2017
    Then it was not 3 but 5?
    The maths lines up!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,581

    Heathener said:

    kle4 said:

    It is time to accept that privatisation of utilities and the railways has been an unmitigated disaster.

    Depends whether you class telecoms as a utility? That has been a success IMO.

    Energy FAIL
    Rail FAIL
    Water MASSIVE FAIL
    Telecoms SUCCESS

    ...is my scorecard.
    I don't have an inherent fervour for nationalisation, so as a blanket policy for anything I'm not in favour. But water and energy? People need to work much harder to persuade me just how good we apparently have it.
    Water has been a massive success
    Come on BR. Water is a disaster.

    Anyway, let’s get back on topic?
    Water is the main privatisation that I feel was pointless. What innovation is possible in water supply?
    Plenty.

    If you discharge you get fined.

    If you get fined you lose money.

    Therefore there's a profit motive to not discharge, to not get fined.

    Innovation.

    Water levels improved dramatically post-privatisation. Rivers and beaches when water was nationalised were far, far, worse. This is an objective fact.
    I thought one of the water companies' excuses is that we're only discovering the massive amounts of shite in the water because of massively improved monitoring?
    Ah, borrowing the 'If crime rates are low its because we're great, if crime rates are high its because we're great at recording it better' reasoning of the police?
  • Heathener said:

    kle4 said:

    It is time to accept that privatisation of utilities and the railways has been an unmitigated disaster.

    Depends whether you class telecoms as a utility? That has been a success IMO.

    Energy FAIL
    Rail FAIL
    Water MASSIVE FAIL
    Telecoms SUCCESS

    ...is my scorecard.
    I don't have an inherent fervour for nationalisation, so as a blanket policy for anything I'm not in favour. But water and energy? People need to work much harder to persuade me just how good we apparently have it.
    Water has been a massive success
    Come on BR. Water is a disaster.

    Anyway, let’s get back on topic?
    Water is the main privatisation that I feel was pointless. What innovation is possible in water supply?
    Plenty.

    If you discharge you get fined.

    If you get fined you lose money.

    Therefore there's a profit motive to not discharge, to not get fined.

    Innovation.

    Water levels improved dramatically post-privatisation. Rivers and beaches when water was nationalised were far, far, worse. This is an objective fact.
    I thought one of the water companies' excuses is that we're only discovering the massive amounts of shite in the water because of massively improved monitoring? In that case how is an objective comparison possible?
    You can compare water quality from the 1970s and 1980s to today. We have huge improvements in our rivers and beaches between the two eras.

    I'm not suggesting the water industry is perfect, far from it. And they should be fined massively for the discharges, because otherwise its pointless, and if the shareholders and bond holders lose money due to fines then tough shit, that's what they get for discharging shit.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,898
    dixiedean said:

    I still think January….. ‘something will turn up’!

    One thing that infuriates Mrs C and myself is the repeated advertisements on Anglia TV for Anglian Water …… slogan ‘Love every drop.’
    Why are they spending money on TV advertising; we have no choice as to who supplies our water or collects our sewage.

    Of course, the "something" could be something bad.
    Not in Sunak’s world.

    He hopes!
  • isamisam Posts: 40,877
    Dominic Cummings poses for a photograph as campaign director at Business for Sterling in London, England (2001)


    https://x.com/shitbritishpics/status/1772730246267375875?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • Scott_xP said:

    @wizbates

    If you’re wondering what happened to Thames Water this is a good summary.

    They borrowed billions and paid it to execs and shareholders.

    Now it needs investment they want customers to pay more. If it goes bankrupt taxpayers will pick up the bill.

    If it goes bankrupt then shareholders and bondholders should pick up the bill.

    Not the taxpayers responsibility at all.

    That's a positive for free markets, not a negative, privatise the gains and privatise the losses.

    There is no excuse, reason or justification for a bailout.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,841

    Heathener said:

    kle4 said:

    It is time to accept that privatisation of utilities and the railways has been an unmitigated disaster.

    Depends whether you class telecoms as a utility? That has been a success IMO.

    Energy FAIL
    Rail FAIL
    Water MASSIVE FAIL
    Telecoms SUCCESS

    ...is my scorecard.
    I don't have an inherent fervour for nationalisation, so as a blanket policy for anything I'm not in favour. But water and energy? People need to work much harder to persuade me just how good we apparently have it.
    Water has been a massive success
    Come on BR. Water is a disaster.

    Anyway, let’s get back on topic?
    Water is the main privatisation that I feel was pointless. What innovation is possible in water supply?
    Plenty.

    If you discharge you get fined.

    If you get fined you lose money.

    Therefore there's a profit motive to not discharge, to not get fined.

    Innovation.

    Water levels improved dramatically post-privatisation. Rivers and beaches when water was nationalised were far, far, worse. This is an objective fact.
    The government fines itself all the time. This should happen more.

    I agree that pollution was worse in ye olden days, and the current figures might have more to do with measurement than an actual increase. There are also problems with increased building and the need for improved facilities and investment to cope - which is out of the water companies' hands.

    But I don't see that these improvements could not have occurred in a nationalised system - indeed, water supply improved massively whilst nationalised. It's complex.
  • Heathener said:

    kle4 said:

    It is time to accept that privatisation of utilities and the railways has been an unmitigated disaster.

    Depends whether you class telecoms as a utility? That has been a success IMO.

    Energy FAIL
    Rail FAIL
    Water MASSIVE FAIL
    Telecoms SUCCESS

    ...is my scorecard.
    I don't have an inherent fervour for nationalisation, so as a blanket policy for anything I'm not in favour. But water and energy? People need to work much harder to persuade me just how good we apparently have it.
    Water has been a massive success
    Come on BR. Water is a disaster.

    Anyway, let’s get back on topic?
    Water is the main privatisation that I feel was pointless. What innovation is possible in water supply?
    Plenty.

    If you discharge you get fined.

    If you get fined you lose money.

    Therefore there's a profit motive to not discharge, to not get fined.

    Innovation.

    Water levels improved dramatically post-privatisation. Rivers and beaches when water was nationalised were far, far, worse. This is an objective fact.
    The government fines itself all the time. This should happen more.

    I agree that pollution was worse in ye olden days, and the current figures might have more to do with measurement than an actual increase. There are also problems with increased building and the need for improved facilities and investment to cope - which is out of the water companies' hands.

    But I don't see that these improvements could not have occurred in a nationalised system - indeed, water supply improved massively whilst nationalised. It's complex.
    The government does fine itself, but it means nothing to anyone. If the government makes a loss, or fines itself, then some spreadsheet numbers move but nothing changes.

    If a private firm receives a fine, or makes a loss, then it owns the consequences.

    Either way there is plenty of scope for both innovation and accountability with a privatised utility, even for something like water. But there needs to be appropriate regulation too, including most important a firm hand issuing fines for any breaches of standards.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,241
    Trent said:

    Heathener said:

    Re the three June elections since 1945 the dates were:

    18 June 1970
    9 June 1983
    11 June 1987

    Suggesting earlier rather than later in the month.

    2001 was also June.
    Oh my: so it was. 7 June 2001.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,841

    Heathener said:

    kle4 said:

    It is time to accept that privatisation of utilities and the railways has been an unmitigated disaster.

    Depends whether you class telecoms as a utility? That has been a success IMO.

    Energy FAIL
    Rail FAIL
    Water MASSIVE FAIL
    Telecoms SUCCESS

    ...is my scorecard.
    I don't have an inherent fervour for nationalisation, so as a blanket policy for anything I'm not in favour. But water and energy? People need to work much harder to persuade me just how good we apparently have it.
    Water has been a massive success
    Come on BR. Water is a disaster.

    Anyway, let’s get back on topic?
    Water is the main privatisation that I feel was pointless. What innovation is possible in water supply?
    Plenty.

    If you discharge you get fined.

    If you get fined you lose money.

    Therefore there's a profit motive to not discharge, to not get fined.

    Innovation.

    Water levels improved dramatically post-privatisation. Rivers and beaches when water was nationalised were far, far, worse. This is an objective fact.
    The government fines itself all the time. This should happen more.

    I agree that pollution was worse in ye olden days, and the current figures might have more to do with measurement than an actual increase. There are also problems with increased building and the need for improved facilities and investment to cope - which is out of the water companies' hands.

    But I don't see that these improvements could not have occurred in a nationalised system - indeed, water supply improved massively whilst nationalised. It's complex.
    The government does fine itself, but it means nothing to anyone. If the government makes a loss, or fines itself, then some spreadsheet numbers move but nothing changes.

    If a private firm receives a fine, or makes a loss, then it owns the consequences.

    Either way there is plenty of scope for both innovation and accountability with a privatised utility, even for something like water. But there needs to be appropriate regulation too, including most important a firm hand issuing fines for any breaches of standards.
    What major innovation is possible with water?

    With power, you have generation, and even possibly supply. With telecoms... well, that's obvious. But water? Perrier to our taps?
Sign In or Register to comment.