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It’s like rearranging deckchairs on the Titanic – politicalbetting.com
It’s like rearranging deckchairs on the Titanic – politicalbetting.com
Only two more letters of no confidence needed to oust Rishi Sunak as prime minister, former cabinet minister claims https://t.co/cyWF0CoX34
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Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote
Dare call it gerrymandering? Tbh I'd not spotted this angle.
It's not the first time serious warnings have been made in government about the China threat
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/26886405/china-uk-cyberattacks-politicians-meeting-westminster/
China steps up cyberattacks on UK politicians as election looms
Urgent meeting called to address interference carried out by Beijing against MPs and peers
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/china-targets-uk-politicians-with-cyberattacks-sg3j87ps2 (£££)
Former chancellor Zahawi in talks to chair Barclays' Very Group
...
Nadhim Zahawi, the former chancellor, is in talks about chairing the biggest remaining part of the Barclay family's business empire, fuelling speculation that he will join a mass exodus of Conservative MPs at the general election.
https://news.sky.com/story/former-chancellor-zahawi-in-talks-to-chair-barclays-very-group-13100315
Madness!
That’s all.
But worse, they're not even achieving their own agenda, but floundering about in sub-zero temperatures. Their only reason to continue in government is to remain in government for another few months, achieving nothing but damage to the country.
I cannot see a way out of this for them. Best to cut their losses and start the rebuild.
(I await someone to call me a PB Tory...
TLDR - most of them will be registered at home anyway and if they especially want to register the process isn't that long, plus the university party associations are generally helpful with it.
Frankly, I doubt if many uni seats are won and lost on the basis of undergrads. Postgrads and junior lecturers are likely to be at least as important and they're more stable in terms of address.
I wonder if TSE has stopped cheering and dancing yet.
Yes: 4.0/4.2
No: 1.31/1.33
1. Bearing in mind that that unit was unlikely have been headed to Belarus, what's the likelihood that both Zelensky and Putin are telling the truth and that while the Kiev government wasn't involved, the terror unit had support on the Ukrainian side of the lines? There are certainly Muslim units on that side, including Chechens. I don't know their orientation, but presumably the Chechens are anti Kadyrov and perhaps some of them are Islamists? I somewhat doubt they are social democrats or centrists. I wonder whether Kadyrov will say anything.
2. How to assess the Russian government line that they foiled a terror attack on a synagogue in Moscow? Are the members of the unit in custody, dead, or at large? What connection was there with the planning and support for Crocus? Or was there no such planned attack?
Instead of the students being registered in solidly Labour Fulchester, they will be registered in suburban and blue wall sears, much more on the target list.
The issue also would mostly be first years, second and third year undergraduates would have generally sorted their accommodation in the summer, if not before. So it would also affect mostly 18 and 19 year old.
There are lots of peoples who hate Russia and willing to do these acts. When ISIS says its them believe them.
One other thing. Those X vs. Starmer polls are essentially forced choices, aren't they? If so, so much for the theory that the blue team benefits more from the Two Horse Race squeeze once the election is called than the red.
2) Following on from that, you always assume the Russian government is lying unless you have hard evidence to the contrary (see Salisbury, Ukraine, Chechnya, Georgia...). In this case, we do not have such evidence. Therefore, we must assume they're lying in a bid to show Putin and the FSB are not a bunch of fifth-rate incompetent losers who can't keep the Russians safe as promised.
In this case (unlike voter ID) the exclusion of voters who aren't friendly to the Tories would be a by-product of circumstances rather than a deliberate act, but it might still be a concern.
Already, on Twitter, some people - supposedly in the US - are saying this was a Ukrainian operation and that the US should not be involved. In that, the attack is already working for Putin, whether it was a false flag or not.
About the only thing we can say for sure is that there was an attack, and lots of civilians died. Anything else coming out of Russia about it is suspect - including if the people detained were even the attackers. Tortured people do not necessarily tell the truth...
Let's face it Sunak is a terrible politician. What made a man with such obvious talents and wealth decide to commit himself to politics baffles me. Presumably ego or a genuine commitment to public service. He has taken on the fag end of a government that had exhausted itself with its internal wars and the grind of being in power for 14 years. He seems very short of meaningful ideas. The one he has thrown himself at, this Rwanda nonsense, is just bizarre.
The Tories are going to get a hammering. The question is how much of a hammering. I really don't see any upside of any potential future leader volunteering for that. I would expect them to be discouraging their supporters from even triggering this. Much better to take over as LOTO and start the rebuild.
And good morning everybody! Bright and sunny here again, although yesterday‘s sunshine turned to showers; you’d think it was April already!
So unless it is very different in England I don't see this as any form of voter suppression. I also think, as JRM was pointing out the other day that voter ID is actually more of a problem for the elderly than the young who usually have documents that can get themselves into pubs or nightclubs.
2) Students are not a special group with special rights.
3) In some universities term comprises 24-27 weeks out of 52 (et in arcadia ego); as students have the luxury of being able to be registered in two places and can apply for a postal vote easily it is unrealistic to take them into account.
4) On this occasion voting in the agreeable Tory seats many of them come from will do more good in ejecting the Tories than voting in Manchester, Hull, Oxford, Bradford, London, Liverpool etc.
5) Learning that civic duty involves attention and thought does them no harm.
An attempt by the Tories to gerrymander. That’s it. No equivocation or further analysis needed.
I am *trying* to get my body clock back in line, and I still can't think how to do my Avatar.
Keep calmer and ...
I don’t doubt this was ISIS. They aren’t chums with Russia and Putin and have done similar before.
There is bodycam footage of the attack being carried out. They will know the perpetrators from it,
The Crocus terrorism is being blamed on Ukraine by Putin to deflect from his own security failures. The US warned that its security services had heard of a plan to attack Russian targets including concert halls, the Russians dismissed it as scaremongering.
It's very reminiscent of the Bataclan massacre in Paris.
Perhaps not the best person to quote if you want to argue its not voter suppression. JRM agrees it was, just thinks it was bad voter suppression rather than effective voter suppression.
But postcodes involve at least two numbers, which may each be bigger than "2" *, so trainee Guardianistas may be confused.
Obviously, "left hand", "right hand", and "conk", makes "3" possible", or "8" if they learn binary.
And the restrictions on legally useable forms of ID *are* a disgrace, and need to be changed.
I think it's organised this time. They don't want all the letters in yet because Sunak will win the VONC like May and then he'll be there till the election. They'll wait until a moment when they think they can win it.
Dual registration is fine and legal as long as only using one vote, and part of the reason for low turnout among youngsters. Foxjr2 is both registered at my address and his London address, but will be recorded as 50% turnout. Likely to be LD from our last conversation. Not Labour because of Starmers Gaza policy.
He just wants more letters in and thinks there will be if lots of people can think they're the final two.
In which case, the place to look for seats where the student effect might matter is university towns which the Conservatives won in 2019.
I cannot believe I missed that market.
There's a phrase in vernacular Irish that is relevant to this: "I will, yeah." Translated into the Queen's English this reads as "no".
Example usage.
Simon Clarke: "Things are desperately bad. Will you send that letter into Brady so that we can get rid of Sunak?"
A Tory MP: "I will, yeah."
Simon Clarke: "Good man! I'm glad I could count on you."
No letter is sent.
Michael Gove is fighting to salvage his flagship reforms of England’s leasehold system after a major proposal was quietly axed by the Treasury and Downing Street.
In January last year, Gove told The Sunday Times he wanted to abolish leasehold, which he described as an “outdated feudal system that needs to go”.
The housing secretary was forced to lower his ambitions after resistance from No 10, and in November announced a less radical leasehold reform bill to make it easier and cheaper for people to buy the freehold of their properties.
There are about ten million leaseholders in England and Wales. They own the right to occupy their home but the building or land is owned by a freeholder landlord. Some leaseholders are trapped by onerous ground rents that are either doubling or increasing in line with the retail prices index rate of inflation, costing them thousands a year.
A key part of Gove’s plan was to reduce all ground rents to a zero (“peppercorn”) rate, which he hoped would give landlords the incentive to sell the freehold to leaseholders, leading to a phasing-out of the system.
The plan was to add the provision to the bill after a consultation, which closed in January. This would have gone further than the cap on ground rents for new homes, introduced in 2022, and reforms in 1993 to enable leaseholders to reduce their ground rent to a peppercorn when extending their lease by 90 years.
However, the proposal was quietly abandoned after Gove and officials at the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities met fierce resistance from the Treasury. It follows an intensive lobbying campaign by pension funds, some of which have invested billions in buying up freeholds for blocks of flats.
The Treasury has been warned that pressing ahead with Gove’s plans could wipe out between £15 billion and £40 billion of investment, which could significantly affect individual pensioners as pension funds are big investors in housing developments. Housing campaigners say the potential impact has been greatly exaggerated.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-10-scuppers-gove-plan-to-reduce-ground-rents-to-zero-hc0f635sr
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68646355.amp
I have 2 concerns, remembering single views on single issue politics from my own university days.
My view remains that the anti-Israel merging into anti-Jewish policy as espoused by so many on the Labour (and Left of Labour) Left associated with eg Corbyn and friends is 1 - often racist, and 2 - often iIl-considered.
1 - For obvious reasons; despite self-serving "but we don't mean Jews" semantics.
2 - Because the actions demanded of Israel may achieve little, and perpetuate war in the Middle East, because the Govt of Iran is maintaining / fomenting-as-it-judges-necessary war across multiple countries, far more actively than Israel has.
Israel been making peace with neighbours in multiple directions for quite a long time now.
How does FoxyJr react when the numbers of deaths in Syria, Yemen etc are counted up for a comparison?
The monomaniacal attitude from many in Labour on this issue is one reason why I will have to think *very* carefully before voting Labour. The continuing subservience to Trade Unions is the other major one that comes up for me every time I consider casting my vote that way at any level.
https://www.fia.com/sites/default/files/decision-document/2024 Australian Grand Prix - Infringement - Car 14 - Potentially dangerous driving.pdf
Not enough of a penalty, but it’s a start.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-68634762
But what I don't understand is that the Scots could do it with feu duties. So why not English leaseholds?
Mind, the Scots had to wait till they got their parliament back, and a Lab-LD coalition. And this might suggest that English leaseholding interests were a problem. No idea whether it was, but the timing is interesting - almost the first major legislative change.
There were videos of explosions last night, but nothing of the state of the targets yet.
Anyway presumably they are engaged and thoughtful people who will be registered at their home address
It probably benefits the Tories to have their vote concentrated in a small number of seats tbh
Again, this depends on the Pension funds and Treasury having a point which I am in no position to say.
Edit: 15-40Bn is a tiny fraction of pension funds. Either a minority of funds went big on freeholds, or the industry is just upset at losing a chunk of their “risk free” profits
Shoulda' Gone To...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/68465516
https://seatonmatters.org/2024/03/23/under-no-circumstances-can-we-let-the-tories-win-here-says-labour-candidate-in-big-boost-to-richard-foords-lib-dem-campaign/
There's going to be a lot of this happening on the ground across England.
And the LibDems will reciprocate, as Ed Davey makes very clear in this New Statesman interview:
https://www.newstatesman.com/encounter/2024/03/ed-davey-liberal-democrats-labour-starmer-fighting-conservatives
I expect a Tory polling recovery but I also expect a level of anti-Tory tactical voting we have not seen previously at a UK GE. There was plenty in 1997 and 2001 but now we have many more resources to help people make informed decisions. The anti-Tory vote is going to be hugely motivated when we do finally get a GE.
Time and again the Treasury has undermined the authority of the PM, almost always with disastrous consequences. As an example, they tracked the DM, leading to the economic downturn of the late-80s, against Thatcher's express instructions. That was with a PM of the character of Thatcher. What chance have Sunak or Starmer got to bring meaningful positive change, even if they wanted to?
Simple as that.
1. He has seen data to say that immigration is a high salience issue and voters want the government to be “tough”
2. He understands the economic consequences of restricting immigration
3. He knows that it will take too long to reform the immigration service to have a meaningful impact
4. He knows the French can’t/won’t stop the flow of people and the flows *into* Europe are only getting bigger
Basically he knows it can’t be fixed short term. So he chooses something high profile and controversial that:
1. If he gets it through will have a positive impact (in the sense of moving things in the direction of reducing immigration) even if it will likely be marginal
2. If it is blocked then he gets to blame Labour
Basically it’s like the “hostile environment” policy - signalling because actually doing something is hard
So I can see why he might conclude it’s rational to go all in.
But he’s not pricing the negative intangibles correctly in my view (both personal and to the party)
Re. "peoples who hate Russia", there have always been compradores in every part of the Russian empire (and every other empire). One of them for example is Ramzan Kadyrov.
I would like to have more information about the anti-Kadyrov Chechen military forces fighting on the side of the Ukrainian government. Could they possibly be a tad Isissy? This is the question.
One of the Russian cruise missiles targeting western Ukraine flew into Polish airspace for about 39 seconds at 4:23 a.m., Polish Air Force's Operational Command said."
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1771822033564815547
To avoid Ukrainian air defenses, the Russians are sending their missiles over somewhat roundabout trajectories.
You'd be better off asking if it was a false flag, or a let-it-happen from some parts of the Russian government...
The leaflet also celebrated her recent “success” in the Hackney mayoral election where she got 25%. I’d call getting 25% in an election “losing” rather than a “success”…