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It’s like rearranging deckchairs on the Titanic – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 24 in General
imageIt’s like rearranging deckchairs on the Titanic – politicalbetting.com

Only two more letters of no confidence needed to oust Rishi Sunak as prime minister, former cabinet minister claims https://t.co/cyWF0CoX34

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,195
    Until the polling shows a clear winner there is no point in replacing Rishi Sunak. That's not to say people won't try, of course.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,195
    ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote
    Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote

    Dare call it gerrymandering? Tbh I'd not spotted this angle.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,195
    edited March 24
    CYBER RAID China targets group of senior UK politicians with string of cyberattacks as urgent meeting called at Westminster
    It's not the first time serious warnings have been made in government about the China threat

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/26886405/china-uk-cyberattacks-politicians-meeting-westminster/

    China steps up cyberattacks on UK politicians as election looms
    Urgent meeting called to address interference carried out by Beijing against MPs and peers

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/china-targets-uk-politicians-with-cyberattacks-sg3j87ps2 (£££)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,195
    If the Conservatives want Nadhim Zahawi as their new leader, they'd better be quick about it.

    Former chancellor Zahawi in talks to chair Barclays' Very Group
    ...
    Nadhim Zahawi, the former chancellor, is in talks about chairing the biggest remaining part of the Barclay family's business empire, fuelling speculation that he will join a mass exodus of Conservative MPs at the general election.

    https://news.sky.com/story/former-chancellor-zahawi-in-talks-to-chair-barclays-very-group-13100315
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,191
    Second.

    Madness!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,833
    Fernando Alonso is a cheating b******.

    That’s all.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 204
    The tories need to take this to a GE as soon as possible. It will only get worse.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,841

    The tories need to take this to a GE as soon as possible. It will only get worse.

    That's been my view for pretty much the entire time since Truss. The Conservatives have lost the narrative, the media, and the public. Any little story now gets magnified into one where the party is given absolutely zero positive spin; small events become massive damaging ones. There can be no good news stories for them.

    But worse, they're not even achieving their own agenda, but floundering about in sub-zero temperatures. Their only reason to continue in government is to remain in government for another few months, achieving nothing but damage to the country.

    I cannot see a way out of this for them. Best to cut their losses and start the rebuild.

    (I await someone to call me a PB Tory... ;) )
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,195

    The tories need to take this to a GE as soon as possible. It will only get worse.

    What will only get worse? Tory infighting will not stop because they are thrown out of office, but if there is no general election until there has to be, Conservative MPs get paid for another six months, and ministers keep their red boxes and chauffeur-driven cars. And there is always the chance that something will turn up to make the government poll better than expected, as in 1992 and 2010, for instance.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,084
    edited March 24

    ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote
    Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote

    Dare call it gerrymandering? Tbh I'd not spotted this angle.

    We discussed this yesterday. The reason you hadn't spotted this angle is because it's not very accurate.

    TLDR - most of them will be registered at home anyway and if they especially want to register the process isn't that long, plus the university party associations are generally helpful with it.

    Frankly, I doubt if many uni seats are won and lost on the basis of undergrads. Postgrads and junior lecturers are likely to be at least as important and they're more stable in terms of address.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,084
    Sandpit said:

    Fernando Alonso is a cheating b******.

    That’s all.

    Not a great race for Mercedes, one way and another, was it?

    I wonder if TSE has stopped cheering and dancing yet.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,286
    edited March 24
    Betfair has a much more liquid market on whether there will be a confidence vote before the GE:

    Yes: 4.0/4.2
    No: 1.31/1.33
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 413
    edited March 24
    Crocus:

    1. Bearing in mind that that unit was unlikely have been headed to Belarus, what's the likelihood that both Zelensky and Putin are telling the truth and that while the Kiev government wasn't involved, the terror unit had support on the Ukrainian side of the lines? There are certainly Muslim units on that side, including Chechens. I don't know their orientation, but presumably the Chechens are anti Kadyrov and perhaps some of them are Islamists? I somewhat doubt they are social democrats or centrists. I wonder whether Kadyrov will say anything.

    2. How to assess the Russian government line that they foiled a terror attack on a synagogue in Moscow? Are the members of the unit in custody, dead, or at large? What connection was there with the planning and support for Crocus? Or was there no such planned attack?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,478
    ydoethur said:

    ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote
    Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote

    Dare call it gerrymandering? Tbh I'd not spotted this angle.

    We discussed this yesterday. The reason you hadn't spotted this angle is because it's not very accurate.

    TLDR - most of them will be registered at home anyway and if they especially want to register the process isn't that long, plus the university party associations are generally helpful with it.

    Frankly, I doubt if many uni seats are won and lost on the basis of undergrads. Postgrads and junior lecturers are likely to be at least as important and they're more stable in terms of address.
    Indeed it may well work against the Tories.

    Instead of the students being registered in solidly Labour Fulchester, they will be registered in suburban and blue wall sears, much more on the target list.

    The issue also would mostly be first years, second and third year undergraduates would have generally sorted their accommodation in the summer, if not before. So it would also affect mostly 18 and 19 year old.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 204

    The tories need to take this to a GE as soon as possible. It will only get worse.

    What will only get worse? Tory infighting will not stop because they are thrown out of office, but if there is no general election until there has to be, Conservative MPs get paid for another six months, and ministers keep their red boxes and chauffeur-driven cars. And there is always the chance that something will turn up to make the government poll better than expected, as in 1992 and 2010, for instance.
    There is zero chance that "something will show up" when the electorate has locked in its decision.... the damning past remains the same....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,098

    ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote
    Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote

    Dare call it gerrymandering? Tbh I'd not spotted this angle.

    They would presumably be registered to vote in their own constituencies. At the most it might reduce the "student effect" on a University town.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,478
    MikeL said:

    Betfair has a much more liquid market on whether there will be a confidence vote before the GE:

    Yes: 4.0/4.2
    No: 1.31/1.33

    I have had a nibble of that. Good tip.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,098
    Foxy said:

    MikeL said:

    Betfair has a much more liquid market on whether there will be a confidence vote before the GE:

    Yes: 4.0/4.2
    No: 1.31/1.33

    I have had a nibble of that. Good tip.
    If I was nibbling I would be betting no. Surely even the Tories are not so stupid as to put us through that again.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,478
    Donkeys said:

    Crocus:

    1. Bearing in mind that that unit was unlikely have been headed to Belarus, what's the likelihood that both Zelensky and Putin are telling the truth and that while the Kiev government wasn't involved, the terror unit had support on the Ukrainian side of the lines? There are certainly Muslim units on that side, including Chechens. I don't know their orientation, but presumably the Chechens are anti Kadyrov and perhaps some of them are Islamists? I somewhat doubt they are social democrats or centrists. I wonder whether Kadyrov will say anything.

    2. How to assess the Russian government line that they foiled a terror attack on a synagogue in Moscow? Are the members of the unit in custody, dead, or at large? What connection was there with the planning and support for Crocus? Or was there no such planned attack?

    Nah, not Ukraine.

    There are lots of peoples who hate Russia and willing to do these acts. When ISIS says its them believe them.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,478
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    MikeL said:

    Betfair has a much more liquid market on whether there will be a confidence vote before the GE:

    Yes: 4.0/4.2
    No: 1.31/1.33

    I have had a nibble of that. Good tip.
    If I was nibbling I would be betting no. Surely even the Tories are not so stupid as to put us through that again.
    Only a small number have to be that stupid. Is it currently 55?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,129
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    MikeL said:

    Betfair has a much more liquid market on whether there will be a confidence vote before the GE:

    Yes: 4.0/4.2
    No: 1.31/1.33

    I have had a nibble of that. Good tip.
    If I was nibbling I would be betting no. Surely even the Tories are not so stupid as to put us through that again.
    Isn't there a non-negligible chance that it could happen by accident, simply through enough of them chucking in letters in a fit of pique (desperation and frustration both being factors here?) Ignoring the noises off from sundry embittered prats, we are back in the same position as in previous Tory regicides: only Brady knows how many letters there are and he's saying nothing unless the critical number is reached.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,334
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    MikeL said:

    Betfair has a much more liquid market on whether there will be a confidence vote before the GE:

    Yes: 4.0/4.2
    No: 1.31/1.33

    I have had a nibble of that. Good tip.
    If I was nibbling I would be betting no. Surely even the Tories are not so stupid as to put us through that again.
    There are few things stupider than a Conservative MP with a sense of impending doom. So it's quite possible, though Simon Clarke claiming that there are almost enough letters sent probably doesn't tell us much about the number of letters.

    One other thing. Those X vs. Starmer polls are essentially forced choices, aren't they? If so, so much for the theory that the blue team benefits more from the Two Horse Race squeeze once the election is called than the red.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,084
    edited March 24
    Donkeys said:

    Crocus:

    1. Bearing in mind that that unit was unlikely have been headed to Belarus, what's the likelihood that both Zelensky and Putin are telling the truth and that while the Kiev government wasn't involved, the terror unit had support on the Ukrainian side of the lines? There are certainly Muslim units on that side, including Chechens. I don't know their orientation, but presumably the Chechens are anti Kadyrov and perhaps some of them are Islamists? I somewhat doubt they are social democrats or centrists. I wonder whether Kadyrov will say anything.

    2. How to assess the Russian government line that they foiled a terror attack on a synagogue in Moscow? Are the members of the unit in custody, dead, or at large? What connection was there with the planning and support for Crocus? Or was there no such planned attack?

    1) They may have done, but it seems improbable. Most of the Chechens in Ukraine are on the Russian side, for a start, and if you want to escape you don't go to the most heavily fortified border - you pick a lightly held one. Moreover, when there are multiple Muslim countries about the same distance off, you'd expect them to head for one of those. So it seems most unlikely. My guess is that whole escape west story, bells and whistles and all, was made up to justify attacks on Ukraine.

    2) Following on from that, you always assume the Russian government is lying unless you have hard evidence to the contrary (see Salisbury, Ukraine, Chechnya, Georgia...). In this case, we do not have such evidence. Therefore, we must assume they're lying in a bid to show Putin and the FSB are not a bunch of fifth-rate incompetent losers who can't keep the Russians safe as promised.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,129
    DavidL said:

    ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote
    Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote

    Dare call it gerrymandering? Tbh I'd not spotted this angle.

    They would presumably be registered to vote in their own constituencies. At the most it might reduce the "student effect" on a University town.
    It's a fair point, though OTOH this could be viewed as another form of voter suppression. Just as the ID reforms don't theoretically block anyone from voting, but in practice are more likely to put off poorer voters who have to go out of their way to obtain documents that they may not already have, so this might result in a lot of students being obliged to apply for postal ballots. These are going to be first time voters: even if they aren't put off by the faff, they might easily fail to twig that this is necessary, or they might not get it done in time.

    In this case (unlike voter ID) the exclusion of voters who aren't friendly to the Tories would be a by-product of circumstances rather than a deliberate act, but it might still be a concern.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,841
    Foxy said:

    Donkeys said:

    Crocus:

    1. Bearing in mind that that unit was unlikely have been headed to Belarus, what's the likelihood that both Zelensky and Putin are telling the truth and that while the Kiev government wasn't involved, the terror unit had support on the Ukrainian side of the lines? There are certainly Muslim units on that side, including Chechens. I don't know their orientation, but presumably the Chechens are anti Kadyrov and perhaps some of them are Islamists? I somewhat doubt they are social democrats or centrists. I wonder whether Kadyrov will say anything.

    2. How to assess the Russian government line that they foiled a terror attack on a synagogue in Moscow? Are the members of the unit in custody, dead, or at large? What connection was there with the planning and support for Crocus? Or was there no such planned attack?

    Nah, not Ukraine.

    There are lots of peoples who hate Russia and willing to do these acts. When ISIS says its them believe them.
    The problem is that *anything* Russia says about this attack and its perpetrators is subject to considerably doubt and skepticism. ISIS has attacked Russia before; attempts to create Ukrainian links should be seen as - at best - Putin trying to use the attack for his own political ends.

    Already, on Twitter, some people - supposedly in the US - are saying this was a Ukrainian operation and that the US should not be involved. In that, the attack is already working for Putin, whether it was a false flag or not.

    About the only thing we can say for sure is that there was an attack, and lots of civilians died. Anything else coming out of Russia about it is suspect - including if the people detained were even the attackers. Tortured people do not necessarily tell the truth...
  • TazTaz Posts: 11,016
    ydoethur said:

    Donkeys said:

    Crocus:

    1. Bearing in mind that that unit was unlikely have been headed to Belarus, what's the likelihood that both Zelensky and Putin are telling the truth and that while the Kiev government wasn't involved, the terror unit had support on the Ukrainian side of the lines? There are certainly Muslim units on that side, including Chechens. I don't know their orientation, but presumably the Chechens are anti Kadyrov and perhaps some of them are Islamists? I somewhat doubt they are social democrats or centrists. I wonder whether Kadyrov will say anything.

    2. How to assess the Russian government line that they foiled a terror attack on a synagogue in Moscow? Are the members of the unit in custody, dead, or at large? What connection was there with the planning and support for Crocus? Or was there no such planned attack?

    1) They may have done, but it seems improbable. Most of the Chechens in Ukraine are on the Russian side, for a start, and if you want to escape you don't go to the most heavily fortified border - you pick a lightly held one. Moreover, when there are multiple Muslim countries about the same distance off, you'd expect them to head for one of those. So it seems most unlikely. My guess is that whole escape west story, bells and whistles and all, was made up to justify attacks on Ukraine.

    2) Following on from that, you always assume the Russian government is lying unless you have hard evidence to the contrary (see Salisbury, Ukraine, Chechnya, Georgia...). In this case, we do not have such evidence. Therefore, we must assume they're lying in a bid to show Putin and the FSB are not a bunch of fifth-rate incompetent losers who can't keep the Russians safe as promised.
    Disappointing, but not surprising, to see so many people in the west on social media taking the Russain line in this and spouting the line that this is a CIA/Ukrainian plot.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,098

    Foxy said:

    Donkeys said:

    Crocus:

    1. Bearing in mind that that unit was unlikely have been headed to Belarus, what's the likelihood that both Zelensky and Putin are telling the truth and that while the Kiev government wasn't involved, the terror unit had support on the Ukrainian side of the lines? There are certainly Muslim units on that side, including Chechens. I don't know their orientation, but presumably the Chechens are anti Kadyrov and perhaps some of them are Islamists? I somewhat doubt they are social democrats or centrists. I wonder whether Kadyrov will say anything.

    2. How to assess the Russian government line that they foiled a terror attack on a synagogue in Moscow? Are the members of the unit in custody, dead, or at large? What connection was there with the planning and support for Crocus? Or was there no such planned attack?

    Nah, not Ukraine.

    There are lots of peoples who hate Russia and willing to do these acts. When ISIS says its them believe them.
    The problem is that *anything* Russia says about this attack and its perpetrators is subject to considerably doubt and skepticism. ISIS has attacked Russia before; attempts to create Ukrainian links should be seen as - at best - Putin trying to use the attack for his own political ends.

    Already, on Twitter, some people - supposedly in the US - are saying this was a Ukrainian operation and that the US should not be involved. In that, the attack is already working for Putin, whether it was a false flag or not.

    About the only thing we can say for sure is that there was an attack, and lots of civilians died. Anything else coming out of Russia about it is suspect - including if the people detained were even the attackers. Tortured people do not necessarily tell the truth...
    Its an odd change of tactics for ISIS to simply slip away into the night after a massacre. All these virgins waiting for you etc. I suspect people of the right ethnicity have been seized at random so the government can show that they are "in control". But if they are not the right ones I think we can expect a repeat fairly quickly.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,098
    pigeon said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    MikeL said:

    Betfair has a much more liquid market on whether there will be a confidence vote before the GE:

    Yes: 4.0/4.2
    No: 1.31/1.33

    I have had a nibble of that. Good tip.
    If I was nibbling I would be betting no. Surely even the Tories are not so stupid as to put us through that again.
    Isn't there a non-negligible chance that it could happen by accident, simply through enough of them chucking in letters in a fit of pique (desperation and frustration both being factors here?) Ignoring the noises off from sundry embittered prats, we are back in the same position as in previous Tory regicides: only Brady knows how many letters there are and he's saying nothing unless the critical number is reached.
    Yes, its possible. Its a bizarre system. Just as well the Tory party is not full of egomaniacs and people full of their own self importance, eh?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,898
    DavidL said:

    ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote
    Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote

    Dare call it gerrymandering? Tbh I'd not spotted this angle.

    They would presumably be registered to vote in their own constituencies. At the most it might reduce the "student effect" on a University town.
    I posted that quote last night, and got fairly comprehensively slapped down on the same grounds. could have an effect in Canterbury I suppose.

    And good morning everybody! Bright and sunny here again, although yesterday‘s sunshine turned to showers; you’d think it was April already!
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,961
    edited March 24

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    MikeL said:

    Betfair has a much more liquid market on whether there will be a confidence vote before the GE:

    Yes: 4.0/4.2
    No: 1.31/1.33

    I have had a nibble of that. Good tip.
    If I was nibbling I would be betting no. Surely even the Tories are not so stupid as to put us through that again.
    There are few things stupider than a Conservative MP with a sense of impending doom. So it's quite possible, though Simon Clarke claiming that there are almost enough letters sent probably doesn't tell us much about the number of letters.

    One other thing. Those X vs. Starmer polls are essentially forced choices, aren't they? If so, so much for the theory that the blue team benefits more from the Two Horse Race squeeze once the election is called than the red.
    That’s Simon Clarke, MP for Middlesbrough South. You’d be better off getting your CV out there, Simon, rather than plotting against Richi.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,098
    pigeon said:

    DavidL said:

    ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote
    Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote

    Dare call it gerrymandering? Tbh I'd not spotted this angle.

    They would presumably be registered to vote in their own constituencies. At the most it might reduce the "student effect" on a University town.
    It's a fair point, though OTOH this could be viewed as another form of voter suppression. Just as the ID reforms don't theoretically block anyone from voting, but in practice are more likely to put off poorer voters who have to go out of their way to obtain documents that they may not already have, so this might result in a lot of students being obliged to apply for postal ballots. These are going to be first time voters: even if they aren't put off by the faff, they might easily fail to twig that this is necessary, or they might not get it done in time.

    In this case (unlike voter ID) the exclusion of voters who aren't friendly to the Tories would be a by-product of circumstances rather than a deliberate act, but it might still be a concern.
    I don't know how things work in England but in Scotland all of my children have been on the electoral register well before their 18th birthday. It seemed to be organised through the schools. 2 of them have gone away to University but they remained registered here. In fact one of them still is although she is now working in Edinburgh and really ought to switch constituencies.

    So unless it is very different in England I don't see this as any form of voter suppression. I also think, as JRM was pointing out the other day that voter ID is actually more of a problem for the elderly than the young who usually have documents that can get themselves into pubs or nightclubs.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,473

    ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote
    Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote

    Dare call it gerrymandering? Tbh I'd not spotted this angle.

    1) It seems to me this is the lie direct, as students will be registered to vote at home already.

    2) Students are not a special group with special rights.

    3) In some universities term comprises 24-27 weeks out of 52 (et in arcadia ego); as students have the luxury of being able to be registered in two places and can apply for a postal vote easily it is unrealistic to take them into account.

    4) On this occasion voting in the agreeable Tory seats many of them come from will do more good in ejecting the Tories than voting in Manchester, Hull, Oxford, Bradford, London, Liverpool etc.

    5) Learning that civic duty involves attention and thought does them no harm.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,149
    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    DavidL said:

    ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote
    Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote

    Dare call it gerrymandering? Tbh I'd not spotted this angle.

    They would presumably be registered to vote in their own constituencies. At the most it might reduce the "student effect" on a University town.
    It's a fair point, though OTOH this could be viewed as another form of voter suppression. Just as the ID reforms don't theoretically block anyone from voting, but in practice are more likely to put off poorer voters who have to go out of their way to obtain documents that they may not already have, so this might result in a lot of students being obliged to apply for postal ballots. These are going to be first time voters: even if they aren't put off by the faff, they might easily fail to twig that this is necessary, or they might not get it done in time.

    In this case (unlike voter ID) the exclusion of voters who aren't friendly to the Tories would be a by-product of circumstances rather than a deliberate act, but it might still be a concern.
    I don't know how things work in England but in Scotland all of my children have been on the electoral register well before their 18th birthday. It seemed to be organised through the schools. 2 of them have gone away to University but they remained registered here. In fact one of them still is although she is now working in Edinburgh and really ought to switch constituencies.

    So unless it is very different in England I don't see this as any form of voter suppression. I also think, as JRM was pointing out the other day that voter ID is actually more of a problem for the elderly than the young who usually have documents that can get themselves into pubs or nightclubs.
    The ID law was specifically written so that the kinds of ID available to young people aren’t acceptable but the kinds of ID available to old people are.

    An attempt by the Tories to gerrymander. That’s it. No equivocation or further analysis needed.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,677
    Foxy said:

    Donkeys said:

    Crocus:

    1. Bearing in mind that that unit was unlikely have been headed to Belarus, what's the likelihood that both Zelensky and Putin are telling the truth and that while the Kiev government wasn't involved, the terror unit had support on the Ukrainian side of the lines? There are certainly Muslim units on that side, including Chechens. I don't know their orientation, but presumably the Chechens are anti Kadyrov and perhaps some of them are Islamists? I somewhat doubt they are social democrats or centrists. I wonder whether Kadyrov will say anything.

    2. How to assess the Russian government line that they foiled a terror attack on a synagogue in Moscow? Are the members of the unit in custody, dead, or at large? What connection was there with the planning and support for Crocus? Or was there no such planned attack?

    Nah, not Ukraine.

    There are lots of peoples who hate Russia and willing to do these acts. When ISIS says its them believe them.
    Islamic State has claimed at least one terrorist act that demonstratively wasn't theirs. I forget which one I read about.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,961

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    DavidL said:

    ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote
    Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote

    Dare call it gerrymandering? Tbh I'd not spotted this angle.

    They would presumably be registered to vote in their own constituencies. At the most it might reduce the "student effect" on a University town.
    It's a fair point, though OTOH this could be viewed as another form of voter suppression. Just as the ID reforms don't theoretically block anyone from voting, but in practice are more likely to put off poorer voters who have to go out of their way to obtain documents that they may not already have, so this might result in a lot of students being obliged to apply for postal ballots. These are going to be first time voters: even if they aren't put off by the faff, they might easily fail to twig that this is necessary, or they might not get it done in time.

    In this case (unlike voter ID) the exclusion of voters who aren't friendly to the Tories would be a by-product of circumstances rather than a deliberate act, but it might still be a concern.
    I don't know how things work in England but in Scotland all of my children have been on the electoral register well before their 18th birthday. It seemed to be organised through the schools. 2 of them have gone away to University but they remained registered here. In fact one of them still is although she is now working in Edinburgh and really ought to switch constituencies.

    So unless it is very different in England I don't see this as any form of voter suppression. I also think, as JRM was pointing out the other day that voter ID is actually more of a problem for the elderly than the young who usually have documents that can get themselves into pubs or nightclubs.
    The ID law was specifically written so that the kinds of ID available to young people aren’t acceptable but the kinds of ID available to old people are.

    An attempt by the Tories to gerrymander. That’s it. No equivocation or further analysis needed.
    Though when pretty much everyone wants to vote against you, voter suppression measures come to be of very limited value.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,344
    edited March 24
    Good morning all.

    I am *trying* to get my body clock back in line, and I still can't think how to do my Avatar.

    Keep calmer and ...


  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,140
    Donkeys said:

    Crocus:

    1. Bearing in mind that that unit was unlikely have been headed to Belarus, what's the likelihood that both Zelensky and Putin are telling the truth and that while the Kiev government wasn't involved, the terror unit had support on the Ukrainian side of the lines? There are certainly Muslim units on that side, including Chechens. I don't know their orientation, but presumably the Chechens are anti Kadyrov and perhaps some of them are Islamists? I somewhat doubt they are social democrats or centrists. I wonder whether Kadyrov will say anything.

    2. How to assess the Russian government line that they foiled a terror attack on a synagogue in Moscow? Are the members of the unit in custody, dead, or at large? What connection was there with the planning and support for Crocus? Or was there no such planned attack?

    Why is Belarus unlikely? They could try to get to Central Asia but having done that trip from Moscow on the train under much nicer conditions, for example not having an entire militarized country trying to hunt me down and make me eat my own ear, I can confirm that it's a very long way indeed. Belarus has the closest border to Moscow, and it'll likely be much less heavily policed than a country Russia is actively at war with.
  • TazTaz Posts: 11,016
    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    Donkeys said:

    Crocus:

    1. Bearing in mind that that unit was unlikely have been headed to Belarus, what's the likelihood that both Zelensky and Putin are telling the truth and that while the Kiev government wasn't involved, the terror unit had support on the Ukrainian side of the lines? There are certainly Muslim units on that side, including Chechens. I don't know their orientation, but presumably the Chechens are anti Kadyrov and perhaps some of them are Islamists? I somewhat doubt they are social democrats or centrists. I wonder whether Kadyrov will say anything.

    2. How to assess the Russian government line that they foiled a terror attack on a synagogue in Moscow? Are the members of the unit in custody, dead, or at large? What connection was there with the planning and support for Crocus? Or was there no such planned attack?

    Nah, not Ukraine.

    There are lots of peoples who hate Russia and willing to do these acts. When ISIS says its them believe them.
    Islamic State has claimed at least one terrorist act that demonstratively wasn't theirs. I forget which one I read about.
    Gruesome bodycam video of the attack including shooting people and throat slitting is reported by OSINTdefender on twitter as being hosted on a media centre aligned to ISIS.

    I don’t doubt this was ISIS. They aren’t chums with Russia and Putin and have done similar before.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,677
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    MikeL said:

    Betfair has a much more liquid market on whether there will be a confidence vote before the GE:

    Yes: 4.0/4.2
    No: 1.31/1.33

    I have had a nibble of that. Good tip.
    If I was nibbling I would be betting no. Surely even the Tories are not so stupid as to put us through that again.
    Presumably there would have to be a confidence vote if the numbers are there, which Sunak could definitely win. So we're betting on whether people have accurate inside knowledge of the number of letters going in.
  • TazTaz Posts: 11,016

    DavidL said:

    ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote
    Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote

    Dare call it gerrymandering? Tbh I'd not spotted this angle.

    They would presumably be registered to vote in their own constituencies. At the most it might reduce the "student effect" on a University town.
    I posted that quote last night, and got fairly comprehensively slapped down on the same grounds. could have an effect in Canterbury I suppose.

    And good morning everybody! Bright and sunny here again, although yesterday‘s sunshine turned to showers; you’d think it was April already!
    I’m sure there are many in labour who’d be delighted to see the MP for Canterbury lose to the Tories.
  • TazTaz Posts: 11,016
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Donkeys said:

    Crocus:

    1. Bearing in mind that that unit was unlikely have been headed to Belarus, what's the likelihood that both Zelensky and Putin are telling the truth and that while the Kiev government wasn't involved, the terror unit had support on the Ukrainian side of the lines? There are certainly Muslim units on that side, including Chechens. I don't know their orientation, but presumably the Chechens are anti Kadyrov and perhaps some of them are Islamists? I somewhat doubt they are social democrats or centrists. I wonder whether Kadyrov will say anything.

    2. How to assess the Russian government line that they foiled a terror attack on a synagogue in Moscow? Are the members of the unit in custody, dead, or at large? What connection was there with the planning and support for Crocus? Or was there no such planned attack?

    Nah, not Ukraine.

    There are lots of peoples who hate Russia and willing to do these acts. When ISIS says its them believe them.
    The problem is that *anything* Russia says about this attack and its perpetrators is subject to considerably doubt and skepticism. ISIS has attacked Russia before; attempts to create Ukrainian links should be seen as - at best - Putin trying to use the attack for his own political ends.

    Already, on Twitter, some people - supposedly in the US - are saying this was a Ukrainian operation and that the US should not be involved. In that, the attack is already working for Putin, whether it was a false flag or not.

    About the only thing we can say for sure is that there was an attack, and lots of civilians died. Anything else coming out of Russia about it is suspect - including if the people detained were even the attackers. Tortured people do not necessarily tell the truth...
    Its an odd change of tactics for ISIS to simply slip away into the night after a massacre. All these virgins waiting for you etc. I suspect people of the right ethnicity have been seized at random so the government can show that they are "in control". But if they are not the right ones I think we can expect a repeat fairly quickly.
    They did the same after the Bataclan. One of the protagonists was arrested in Belgium.

    There is bodycam footage of the attack being carried out. They will know the perpetrators from it,
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,478
    edited March 24
    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    Donkeys said:

    Crocus:

    1. Bearing in mind that that unit was unlikely have been headed to Belarus, what's the likelihood that both Zelensky and Putin are telling the truth and that while the Kiev government wasn't involved, the terror unit had support on the Ukrainian side of the lines? There are certainly Muslim units on that side, including Chechens. I don't know their orientation, but presumably the Chechens are anti Kadyrov and perhaps some of them are Islamists? I somewhat doubt they are social democrats or centrists. I wonder whether Kadyrov will say anything.

    2. How to assess the Russian government line that they foiled a terror attack on a synagogue in Moscow? Are the members of the unit in custody, dead, or at large? What connection was there with the planning and support for Crocus? Or was there no such planned attack?

    Nah, not Ukraine.

    There are lots of peoples who hate Russia and willing to do these acts. When ISIS says its them believe them.
    Islamic State has claimed at least one terrorist act that demonstratively wasn't theirs. I forget which one I read about.
    Gruesome bodycam video of the attack including shooting people and throat slitting is reported by OSINTdefender on twitter as being hosted on a media centre aligned to ISIS.

    I don’t doubt this was ISIS. They aren’t chums with Russia and Putin and have done similar before.
    Not always ISIS either. Remember the Beslan school massacre? Islamist, but not ISIS.

    The Crocus terrorism is being blamed on Ukraine by Putin to deflect from his own security failures. The US warned that its security services had heard of a plan to attack Russian targets including concert halls, the Russians dismissed it as scaremongering.

    It's very reminiscent of the Bataclan massacre in Paris.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,098
    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    MikeL said:

    Betfair has a much more liquid market on whether there will be a confidence vote before the GE:

    Yes: 4.0/4.2
    No: 1.31/1.33

    I have had a nibble of that. Good tip.
    If I was nibbling I would be betting no. Surely even the Tories are not so stupid as to put us through that again.
    Presumably there would have to be a confidence vote if the numbers are there, which Sunak could definitely win. So we're betting on whether people have accurate inside knowledge of the number of letters going in.
    I think that is fair and as @pigeon and others have pointed out, a mistake is always possible. But I would be astonished if there was not a fair amount of gossip about this within the Parliamentary party. What else do they have to talk about since they gave up running the country?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,606
    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    DavidL said:

    ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote
    Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote

    Dare call it gerrymandering? Tbh I'd not spotted this angle.

    They would presumably be registered to vote in their own constituencies. At the most it might reduce the "student effect" on a University town.
    It's a fair point, though OTOH this could be viewed as another form of voter suppression. Just as the ID reforms don't theoretically block anyone from voting, but in practice are more likely to put off poorer voters who have to go out of their way to obtain documents that they may not already have, so this might result in a lot of students being obliged to apply for postal ballots. These are going to be first time voters: even if they aren't put off by the faff, they might easily fail to twig that this is necessary, or they might not get it done in time.

    In this case (unlike voter ID) the exclusion of voters who aren't friendly to the Tories would be a by-product of circumstances rather than a deliberate act, but it might still be a concern.
    I don't know how things work in England but in Scotland all of my children have been on the electoral register well before their 18th birthday. It seemed to be organised through the schools. 2 of them have gone away to University but they remained registered here. In fact one of them still is although she is now working in Edinburgh and really ought to switch constituencies.

    So unless it is very different in England I don't see this as any form of voter suppression. I also think, as JRM was pointing out the other day that voter ID is actually more of a problem for the elderly than the young who usually have documents that can get themselves into pubs or nightclubs.
    Is this the same JRM who said "Parties that try and gerrymander end up finding their clever scheme comes back to bite them, as dare I say we found by insisting on voter ID for elections."

    Perhaps not the best person to quote if you want to argue its not voter suppression. JRM agrees it was, just thinks it was bad voter suppression rather than effective voter suppression.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,344
    edited March 24
    algarkirk said:

    ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote
    Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote

    Dare call it gerrymandering? Tbh I'd not spotted this angle.

    1) It seems to me this is the lie direct, as students will be registered to vote at home already.

    2) Students are not a special group with special rights.

    3) In some universities term comprises 24-27 weeks out of 52 (et in arcadia ego); as students have the luxury of being able to be registered in two places and can apply for a postal vote easily it is unrealistic to take them into account.

    4) On this occasion voting in the agreeable Tory seats many of them come from will do more good in ejecting the Tories than voting in Manchester, Hull, Oxford, Bradford, London, Liverpool etc.

    5) Learning that civic duty involves attention and thought does them no harm.
    I probably concur with that tbh.

    But postcodes involve at least two numbers, which may each be bigger than "2" *, so trainee Guardianistas may be confused.

    Obviously, "left hand", "right hand", and "conk", makes "3" possible", or "8" if they learn binary.

    And the restrictions on legally useable forms of ID *are* a disgrace, and need to be changed.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,478
    Taz said:

    DavidL said:

    ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote
    Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote

    Dare call it gerrymandering? Tbh I'd not spotted this angle.

    They would presumably be registered to vote in their own constituencies. At the most it might reduce the "student effect" on a University town.
    I posted that quote last night, and got fairly comprehensively slapped down on the same grounds. could have an effect in Canterbury I suppose.

    And good morning everybody! Bright and sunny here again, although yesterday‘s sunshine turned to showers; you’d think it was April already!
    I’m sure there are many in labour who’d be delighted to see the MP for Canterbury lose to the Tories.
    It's not going to happen. If there is a random Tory gain it is likely to be off the SNP.. The swing is too massive in England and Wales for a Tory gain there, except perhaps one of the recent byelection wins.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,606
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote
    Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote

    Dare call it gerrymandering? Tbh I'd not spotted this angle.

    We discussed this yesterday. The reason you hadn't spotted this angle is because it's not very accurate.

    TLDR - most of them will be registered at home anyway and if they especially want to register the process isn't that long, plus the university party associations are generally helpful with it.

    Frankly, I doubt if many uni seats are won and lost on the basis of undergrads. Postgrads and junior lecturers are likely to be at least as important and they're more stable in terms of address.
    Indeed it may well work against the Tories.

    Instead of the students being registered in solidly Labour Fulchester, they will be registered in suburban and blue wall sears, much more on the target list.

    The issue also would mostly be first years, second and third year undergraduates would have generally sorted their accommodation in the summer, if not before. So it would also affect mostly 18 and 19 year old.
    Indeed, it seems fairly obvious that the Tories should be a tad more concerned with defending about 300 vulnerable seats somehow rather than trying to win back university constituencies.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,098

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    DavidL said:

    ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote
    Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote

    Dare call it gerrymandering? Tbh I'd not spotted this angle.

    They would presumably be registered to vote in their own constituencies. At the most it might reduce the "student effect" on a University town.
    It's a fair point, though OTOH this could be viewed as another form of voter suppression. Just as the ID reforms don't theoretically block anyone from voting, but in practice are more likely to put off poorer voters who have to go out of their way to obtain documents that they may not already have, so this might result in a lot of students being obliged to apply for postal ballots. These are going to be first time voters: even if they aren't put off by the faff, they might easily fail to twig that this is necessary, or they might not get it done in time.

    In this case (unlike voter ID) the exclusion of voters who aren't friendly to the Tories would be a by-product of circumstances rather than a deliberate act, but it might still be a concern.
    I don't know how things work in England but in Scotland all of my children have been on the electoral register well before their 18th birthday. It seemed to be organised through the schools. 2 of them have gone away to University but they remained registered here. In fact one of them still is although she is now working in Edinburgh and really ought to switch constituencies.

    So unless it is very different in England I don't see this as any form of voter suppression. I also think, as JRM was pointing out the other day that voter ID is actually more of a problem for the elderly than the young who usually have documents that can get themselves into pubs or nightclubs.
    Is this the same JRM who said "Parties that try and gerrymander end up finding their clever scheme comes back to bite them, as dare I say we found by insisting on voter ID for elections."

    Perhaps not the best person to quote if you want to argue its not voter suppression. JRM agrees it was, just thinks it was bad voter suppression rather than effective voter suppression.
    Yes it was and I am agreeing with him. I don't dispute voter ID was an attempt at voter suppression. I do dispute, like him, that it worked and agree with him it rather backfired. On students, however, I think people are getting carried away with their conspiracy theories somewhat.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,292
    ...
    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    MikeL said:

    Betfair has a much more liquid market on whether there will be a confidence vote before the GE:

    Yes: 4.0/4.2
    No: 1.31/1.33

    I have had a nibble of that. Good tip.
    If I was nibbling I would be betting no. Surely even the Tories are not so stupid as to put us through that again.
    Presumably there would have to be a confidence vote if the numbers are there, which Sunak could definitely win. So we're betting on whether people have accurate inside knowledge of the number of letters going in.

    I think it's organised this time. They don't want all the letters in yet because Sunak will win the VONC like May and then he'll be there till the election. They'll wait until a moment when they think they can win it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,478
    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    DavidL said:

    ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote
    Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote

    Dare call it gerrymandering? Tbh I'd not spotted this angle.

    They would presumably be registered to vote in their own constituencies. At the most it might reduce the "student effect" on a University town.
    It's a fair point, though OTOH this could be viewed as another form of voter suppression. Just as the ID reforms don't theoretically block anyone from voting, but in practice are more likely to put off poorer voters who have to go out of their way to obtain documents that they may not already have, so this might result in a lot of students being obliged to apply for postal ballots. These are going to be first time voters: even if they aren't put off by the faff, they might easily fail to twig that this is necessary, or they might not get it done in time.

    In this case (unlike voter ID) the exclusion of voters who aren't friendly to the Tories would be a by-product of circumstances rather than a deliberate act, but it might still be a concern.
    I don't know how things work in England but in Scotland all of my children have been on the electoral register well before their 18th birthday. It seemed to be organised through the schools. 2 of them have gone away to University but they remained registered here. In fact one of them still is although she is now working in Edinburgh and really ought to switch constituencies.

    So unless it is very different in England I don't see this as any form of voter suppression. I also think, as JRM was pointing out the other day that voter ID is actually more of a problem for the elderly than the young who usually have documents that can get themselves into pubs or nightclubs.
    As Scots can vote for Holyrood at 16 they can register earlier than in England, where 17 year old can register.

    Dual registration is fine and legal as long as only using one vote, and part of the reason for low turnout among youngsters. Foxjr2 is both registered at my address and his London address, but will be recorded as 50% turnout. Likely to be LD from our last conversation. Not Labour because of Starmers Gaza policy.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,606
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    DavidL said:

    ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote
    Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote

    Dare call it gerrymandering? Tbh I'd not spotted this angle.

    They would presumably be registered to vote in their own constituencies. At the most it might reduce the "student effect" on a University town.
    It's a fair point, though OTOH this could be viewed as another form of voter suppression. Just as the ID reforms don't theoretically block anyone from voting, but in practice are more likely to put off poorer voters who have to go out of their way to obtain documents that they may not already have, so this might result in a lot of students being obliged to apply for postal ballots. These are going to be first time voters: even if they aren't put off by the faff, they might easily fail to twig that this is necessary, or they might not get it done in time.

    In this case (unlike voter ID) the exclusion of voters who aren't friendly to the Tories would be a by-product of circumstances rather than a deliberate act, but it might still be a concern.
    I don't know how things work in England but in Scotland all of my children have been on the electoral register well before their 18th birthday. It seemed to be organised through the schools. 2 of them have gone away to University but they remained registered here. In fact one of them still is although she is now working in Edinburgh and really ought to switch constituencies.

    So unless it is very different in England I don't see this as any form of voter suppression. I also think, as JRM was pointing out the other day that voter ID is actually more of a problem for the elderly than the young who usually have documents that can get themselves into pubs or nightclubs.
    Is this the same JRM who said "Parties that try and gerrymander end up finding their clever scheme comes back to bite them, as dare I say we found by insisting on voter ID for elections."

    Perhaps not the best person to quote if you want to argue its not voter suppression. JRM agrees it was, just thinks it was bad voter suppression rather than effective voter suppression.
    Yes it was and I am agreeing with him. I don't dispute voter ID was an attempt at voter suppression. I do dispute, like him, that it worked and agree with him it rather backfired. On students, however, I think people are getting carried away with their conspiracy theories somewhat.
    Apologies, just woken up and misread the thread. I concur, nothing in the students story of note. It is quite possible some SPAD or MP has internally said this would be an advantage of an October date, but it won't be.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914

    DavidL said:

    ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote
    Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote

    Dare call it gerrymandering? Tbh I'd not spotted this angle.

    They would presumably be registered to vote in their own constituencies. At the most it might reduce the "student effect" on a University town.
    I posted that quote last night, and got fairly comprehensively slapped down on the same grounds. could have an effect in Canterbury I suppose.

    And good morning everybody! Bright and sunny here again, although yesterday‘s sunshine turned to showers; you’d think it was April already!

    It could have an impact in Warwick & Leamington, too, in theory. It’s currently a very tight Labour marginal with a large student population. In practice, Nah.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,195
    edited March 24
    algarkirk said:

    ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote
    Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote

    Dare call it gerrymandering? Tbh I'd not spotted this angle.

    1) It seems to me this is the lie direct, as students will be registered to vote at home already.

    2) Students are not a special group with special rights.

    3) In some universities term comprises 24-27 weeks out of 52 (et in arcadia ego); as students have the luxury of being able to be registered in two places and can apply for a postal vote easily it is unrealistic to take them into account.

    4) On this occasion voting in the agreeable Tory seats many of them come from will do more good in ejecting the Tories than voting in Manchester, Hull, Oxford, Bradford, London, Liverpool etc.

    5) Learning that civic duty involves attention and thought does them no harm.
    The point is that there will be limited time, possibly mere days, for students to register, and that even if students pull their fingers out, some local authorities might be overwhelmed. You also seem to ignore that besides the students rights is the question of whether CCHQ might want to exclude them.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,229
    I very much doubt what Simon Clarke says to be true.

    He just wants more letters in and thinks there will be if lots of people can think they're the final two.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,019
    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    Donkeys said:

    Crocus:

    1. Bearing in mind that that unit was unlikely have been headed to Belarus, what's the likelihood that both Zelensky and Putin are telling the truth and that while the Kiev government wasn't involved, the terror unit had support on the Ukrainian side of the lines? There are certainly Muslim units on that side, including Chechens. I don't know their orientation, but presumably the Chechens are anti Kadyrov and perhaps some of them are Islamists? I somewhat doubt they are social democrats or centrists. I wonder whether Kadyrov will say anything.

    2. How to assess the Russian government line that they foiled a terror attack on a synagogue in Moscow? Are the members of the unit in custody, dead, or at large? What connection was there with the planning and support for Crocus? Or was there no such planned attack?

    Nah, not Ukraine.

    There are lots of peoples who hate Russia and willing to do these acts. When ISIS says its them believe them.
    Islamic State has claimed at least one terrorist act that demonstratively wasn't theirs. I forget which one I read about.
    In this case I believe they've released GoPro footage from the attack, which would seem pretty convincing evidence that they were behind it.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,334

    DavidL said:

    ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote
    Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote

    Dare call it gerrymandering? Tbh I'd not spotted this angle.

    They would presumably be registered to vote in their own constituencies. At the most it might reduce the "student effect" on a University town.
    I posted that quote last night, and got fairly comprehensively slapped down on the same grounds. could have an effect in Canterbury I suppose.

    And good morning everybody! Bright and sunny here again, although yesterday‘s sunshine turned to showers; you’d think it was April already!

    It could have an impact in Warwick & Leamington, too, in theory. It’s currently a very tight Labour marginal with a large student population. In practice, Nah.

    Indeed. The 2024 battlefront is in such a different place to 2019 that anything that was marginal then has surely long left the Conservative hope list. (I'd hate to be the person allocating central resources at CCHQ.)

    In which case, the place to look for seats where the student effect might matter is university towns which the Conservatives won in 2019.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,098
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    DavidL said:

    ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote
    Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote

    Dare call it gerrymandering? Tbh I'd not spotted this angle.

    They would presumably be registered to vote in their own constituencies. At the most it might reduce the "student effect" on a University town.
    It's a fair point, though OTOH this could be viewed as another form of voter suppression. Just as the ID reforms don't theoretically block anyone from voting, but in practice are more likely to put off poorer voters who have to go out of their way to obtain documents that they may not already have, so this might result in a lot of students being obliged to apply for postal ballots. These are going to be first time voters: even if they aren't put off by the faff, they might easily fail to twig that this is necessary, or they might not get it done in time.

    In this case (unlike voter ID) the exclusion of voters who aren't friendly to the Tories would be a by-product of circumstances rather than a deliberate act, but it might still be a concern.
    I don't know how things work in England but in Scotland all of my children have been on the electoral register well before their 18th birthday. It seemed to be organised through the schools. 2 of them have gone away to University but they remained registered here. In fact one of them still is although she is now working in Edinburgh and really ought to switch constituencies.

    So unless it is very different in England I don't see this as any form of voter suppression. I also think, as JRM was pointing out the other day that voter ID is actually more of a problem for the elderly than the young who usually have documents that can get themselves into pubs or nightclubs.
    As Scots can vote for Holyrood at 16 they can register earlier than in England, where 17 year old can register.

    Dual registration is fine and legal as long as only using one vote, and part of the reason for low turnout among youngsters. Foxjr2 is both registered at my address and his London address, but will be recorded as 50% turnout. Likely to be LD from our last conversation. Not Labour because of Starmers Gaza policy.
    That's a good point re Holyrood but that is a recent innovation. My older kids couldn't vote until they were 18 and were still on the register earlier than that. My younger daughter's first vote was in fact the Independence referendum where she was a highly active remain campaigner so, in her case at least, that was yet another example of unsuccessful gerrymandering!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,212
    MikeL said:

    Betfair has a much more liquid market on whether there will be a confidence vote before the GE:

    Yes: 4.0/4.2
    No: 1.31/1.33

    Cheers, I have updated the header now.

    I cannot believe I missed that market.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,195
    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    Donkeys said:

    Crocus:

    1. Bearing in mind that that unit was unlikely have been headed to Belarus, what's the likelihood that both Zelensky and Putin are telling the truth and that while the Kiev government wasn't involved, the terror unit had support on the Ukrainian side of the lines? There are certainly Muslim units on that side, including Chechens. I don't know their orientation, but presumably the Chechens are anti Kadyrov and perhaps some of them are Islamists? I somewhat doubt they are social democrats or centrists. I wonder whether Kadyrov will say anything.

    2. How to assess the Russian government line that they foiled a terror attack on a synagogue in Moscow? Are the members of the unit in custody, dead, or at large? What connection was there with the planning and support for Crocus? Or was there no such planned attack?

    Nah, not Ukraine.

    There are lots of peoples who hate Russia and willing to do these acts. When ISIS says its them believe them.
    Islamic State has claimed at least one terrorist act that demonstratively wasn't theirs. I forget which one I read about.
    Gruesome bodycam video of the attack including shooting people and throat slitting is reported by OSINTdefender on twitter as being hosted on a media centre aligned to ISIS.

    I don’t doubt this was ISIS. They aren’t chums with Russia and Putin and have done similar before.
    Not always ISIS either. Remember the Beslan school massacre? Islamist, but not ISIS.

    The Crocus terrorism is being blamed on Ukraine by Putin to deflect from his own security failures. The US warned that its security services had heard of a plan to attack Russian targets including concert halls, the Russians dismissed it as scaremongering.

    It's very reminiscent of the Bataclan massacre in Paris.
    One wonders if the Moscow attack was not planned with Ukraine in mind, whether by the Kremlin to justify flattening Ukraine as Israel has done to Gaza, or by ISIS in order to reduce international backing for Israel against Gaza.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,212
    Pensioners screw over younger voters again.

    Michael Gove is fighting to salvage his flagship reforms of England’s leasehold system after a major proposal was quietly axed by the Treasury and Downing Street.

    In January last year, Gove told The Sunday Times he wanted to abolish leasehold, which he described as an “outdated feudal system that needs to go”.

    The housing secretary was forced to lower his ambitions after resistance from No 10, and in November announced a less radical leasehold reform bill to make it easier and cheaper for people to buy the freehold of their properties.

    There are about ten million leaseholders in England and Wales. They own the right to occupy their home but the building or land is owned by a freeholder landlord. Some leaseholders are trapped by onerous ground rents that are either doubling or increasing in line with the retail prices index rate of inflation, costing them thousands a year.

    A key part of Gove’s plan was to reduce all ground rents to a zero (“peppercorn”) rate, which he hoped would give landlords the incentive to sell the freehold to leaseholders, leading to a phasing-out of the system.

    The plan was to add the provision to the bill after a consultation, which closed in January. This would have gone further than the cap on ground rents for new homes, introduced in 2022, and reforms in 1993 to enable leaseholders to reduce their ground rent to a peppercorn when extending their lease by 90 years.

    However, the proposal was quietly abandoned after Gove and officials at the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities met fierce resistance from the Treasury. It follows an intensive lobbying campaign by pension funds, some of which have invested billions in buying up freeholds for blocks of flats.

    The Treasury has been warned that pressing ahead with Gove’s plans could wipe out between £15 billion and £40 billion of investment, which could significantly affect individual pensioners as pension funds are big investors in housing developments. Housing campaigners say the potential impact has been greatly exaggerated.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-10-scuppers-gove-plan-to-reduce-ground-rents-to-zero-hc0f635sr
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,029
    Laura bigging up the bangin' economy. But even she isn't sure it will work.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68646355.amp
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,344
    edited March 24
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    DavidL said:

    ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote
    Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote

    Dare call it gerrymandering? Tbh I'd not spotted this angle.

    They would presumably be registered to vote in their own constituencies. At the most it might reduce the "student effect" on a University town.
    It's a fair point, though OTOH this could be viewed as another form of voter suppression. Just as the ID reforms don't theoretically block anyone from voting, but in practice are more likely to put off poorer voters who have to go out of their way to obtain documents that they may not already have, so this might result in a lot of students being obliged to apply for postal ballots. These are going to be first time voters: even if they aren't put off by the faff, they might easily fail to twig that this is necessary, or they might not get it done in time.

    In this case (unlike voter ID) the exclusion of voters who aren't friendly to the Tories would be a by-product of circumstances rather than a deliberate act, but it might still be a concern.
    I don't know how things work in England but in Scotland all of my children have been on the electoral register well before their 18th birthday. It seemed to be organised through the schools. 2 of them have gone away to University but they remained registered here. In fact one of them still is although she is now working in Edinburgh and really ought to switch constituencies.

    So unless it is very different in England I don't see this as any form of voter suppression. I also think, as JRM was pointing out the other day that voter ID is actually more of a problem for the elderly than the young who usually have documents that can get themselves into pubs or nightclubs.
    As Scots can vote for Holyrood at 16 they can register earlier than in England, where 17 year old can register.

    Dual registration is fine and legal as long as only using one vote, and part of the reason for low turnout among youngsters. Foxjr2 is both registered at my address and his London address, but will be recorded as 50% turnout. Likely to be LD from our last conversation. Not Labour because of Starmers Gaza policy.
    Serious question about Foxjr2's opinion. What does s/he actually want?

    I have 2 concerns, remembering single views on single issue politics from my own university days.

    My view remains that the anti-Israel merging into anti-Jewish policy as espoused by so many on the Labour (and Left of Labour) Left associated with eg Corbyn and friends is 1 - often racist, and 2 - often iIl-considered.

    1 - For obvious reasons; despite self-serving "but we don't mean Jews" semantics.

    2 - Because the actions demanded of Israel may achieve little, and perpetuate war in the Middle East, because the Govt of Iran is maintaining / fomenting-as-it-judges-necessary war across multiple countries, far more actively than Israel has.

    Israel been making peace with neighbours in multiple directions for quite a long time now.

    How does FoxyJr react when the numbers of deaths in Syria, Yemen etc are counted up for a comparison?

    The monomaniacal attitude from many in Labour on this issue is one reason why I will have to think *very* carefully before voting Labour. The continuing subservience to Trade Unions is the other major one that comes up for me every time I consider casting my vote that way at any level.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,878

    Pensioners screw over younger voters again.

    Michael Gove is fighting to salvage his flagship reforms of England’s leasehold system after a major proposal was quietly axed by the Treasury and Downing Street.

    In January last year, Gove told The Sunday Times he wanted to abolish leasehold, which he described as an “outdated feudal system that needs to go”.

    The housing secretary was forced to lower his ambitions after resistance from No 10, and in November announced a less radical leasehold reform bill to make it easier and cheaper for people to buy the freehold of their properties.

    There are about ten million leaseholders in England and Wales. They own the right to occupy their home but the building or land is owned by a freeholder landlord. Some leaseholders are trapped by onerous ground rents that are either doubling or increasing in line with the retail prices index rate of inflation, costing them thousands a year.

    A key part of Gove’s plan was to reduce all ground rents to a zero (“peppercorn”) rate, which he hoped would give landlords the incentive to sell the freehold to leaseholders, leading to a phasing-out of the system.

    The plan was to add the provision to the bill after a consultation, which closed in January. This would have gone further than the cap on ground rents for new homes, introduced in 2022, and reforms in 1993 to enable leaseholders to reduce their ground rent to a peppercorn when extending their lease by 90 years.

    However, the proposal was quietly abandoned after Gove and officials at the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities met fierce resistance from the Treasury. It follows an intensive lobbying campaign by pension funds, some of which have invested billions in buying up freeholds for blocks of flats.

    The Treasury has been warned that pressing ahead with Gove’s plans could wipe out between £15 billion and £40 billion of investment, which could significantly affect individual pensioners as pension funds are big investors in housing developments. Housing campaigners say the potential impact has been greatly exaggerated.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-10-scuppers-gove-plan-to-reduce-ground-rents-to-zero-hc0f635sr

    Brilliant news for detached sprawl developers too. Their model of land banking and profit maximisation would've been undercut by this reform.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,961

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    Donkeys said:

    Crocus:

    1. Bearing in mind that that unit was unlikely have been headed to Belarus, what's the likelihood that both Zelensky and Putin are telling the truth and that while the Kiev government wasn't involved, the terror unit had support on the Ukrainian side of the lines? There are certainly Muslim units on that side, including Chechens. I don't know their orientation, but presumably the Chechens are anti Kadyrov and perhaps some of them are Islamists? I somewhat doubt they are social democrats or centrists. I wonder whether Kadyrov will say anything.

    2. How to assess the Russian government line that they foiled a terror attack on a synagogue in Moscow? Are the members of the unit in custody, dead, or at large? What connection was there with the planning and support for Crocus? Or was there no such planned attack?

    Nah, not Ukraine.

    There are lots of peoples who hate Russia and willing to do these acts. When ISIS says its them believe them.
    Islamic State has claimed at least one terrorist act that demonstratively wasn't theirs. I forget which one I read about.
    Gruesome bodycam video of the attack including shooting people and throat slitting is reported by OSINTdefender on twitter as being hosted on a media centre aligned to ISIS.

    I don’t doubt this was ISIS. They aren’t chums with Russia and Putin and have done similar before.
    Not always ISIS either. Remember the Beslan school massacre? Islamist, but not ISIS.

    The Crocus terrorism is being blamed on Ukraine by Putin to deflect from his own security failures. The US warned that its security services had heard of a plan to attack Russian targets including concert halls, the Russians dismissed it as scaremongering.

    It's very reminiscent of the Bataclan massacre in Paris.
    One wonders if the Moscow attack was not planned with Ukraine in mind, whether by the Kremlin to justify flattening Ukraine as Israel has done to Gaza, or by ISIS in order to reduce international backing for Israel against Gaza.
    If the Kremlin was capable of flattening Ukraine it would have done so by now, but it's not.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,334

    Pensioners screw over younger voters again.

    Michael Gove is fighting to salvage his flagship reforms of England’s leasehold system after a major proposal was quietly axed by the Treasury and Downing Street.

    In January last year, Gove told The Sunday Times he wanted to abolish leasehold, which he described as an “outdated feudal system that needs to go”.

    The housing secretary was forced to lower his ambitions after resistance from No 10, and in November announced a less radical leasehold reform bill to make it easier and cheaper for people to buy the freehold of their properties.

    There are about ten million leaseholders in England and Wales. They own the right to occupy their home but the building or land is owned by a freeholder landlord. Some leaseholders are trapped by onerous ground rents that are either doubling or increasing in line with the retail prices index rate of inflation, costing them thousands a year.

    A key part of Gove’s plan was to reduce all ground rents to a zero (“peppercorn”) rate, which he hoped would give landlords the incentive to sell the freehold to leaseholders, leading to a phasing-out of the system.

    The plan was to add the provision to the bill after a consultation, which closed in January. This would have gone further than the cap on ground rents for new homes, introduced in 2022, and reforms in 1993 to enable leaseholders to reduce their ground rent to a peppercorn when extending their lease by 90 years.

    However, the proposal was quietly abandoned after Gove and officials at the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities met fierce resistance from the Treasury. It follows an intensive lobbying campaign by pension funds, some of which have invested billions in buying up freeholds for blocks of flats.

    The Treasury has been warned that pressing ahead with Gove’s plans could wipe out between £15 billion and £40 billion of investment, which could significantly affect individual pensioners as pension funds are big investors in housing developments. Housing campaigners say the potential impact has been greatly exaggerated.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-10-scuppers-gove-plan-to-reduce-ground-rents-to-zero-hc0f635sr

    When even Michael Gove has turned into Jim Hacker, it's time for the government to book itself into Dignitas.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,212
    edited March 24
    Sandpit said:
    Should be banned for the rest of the season, George Russell could have been killed, it was a Max Verstappen move.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,191
    ydoethur said:

    ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote
    Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote

    Dare call it gerrymandering? Tbh I'd not spotted this angle.

    We discussed this yesterday. The reason you hadn't spotted this angle is because it's not very accurate.

    TLDR - most of them will be registered at home anyway and if they especially want to register the process isn't that long, plus the university party associations are generally helpful with it.

    Frankly, I doubt if many uni seats are won and lost on the basis of undergrads. Postgrads and junior lecturers are likely to be at least as important and they're more stable in terms of address.
    And students lose out by being concentrated into a handful of key seats, few of which are now marginal. They'd have more impact voting at home and helping topple the Tories away from the larger towns and cities.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,344
    Interesting piece abourt how some of the £39m raised by Sir Tom Moore was spent:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-68634762
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,556

    Pensioners screw over younger voters again.

    Michael Gove is fighting to salvage his flagship reforms of England’s leasehold system after a major proposal was quietly axed by the Treasury and Downing Street.

    In January last year, Gove told The Sunday Times he wanted to abolish leasehold, which he described as an “outdated feudal system that needs to go”.

    The housing secretary was forced to lower his ambitions after resistance from No 10, and in November announced a less radical leasehold reform bill to make it easier and cheaper for people to buy the freehold of their properties.

    There are about ten million leaseholders in England and Wales. They own the right to occupy their home but the building or land is owned by a freeholder landlord. Some leaseholders are trapped by onerous ground rents that are either doubling or increasing in line with the retail prices index rate of inflation, costing them thousands a year.

    A key part of Gove’s plan was to reduce all ground rents to a zero (“peppercorn”) rate, which he hoped would give landlords the incentive to sell the freehold to leaseholders, leading to a phasing-out of the system.

    The plan was to add the provision to the bill after a consultation, which closed in January. This would have gone further than the cap on ground rents for new homes, introduced in 2022, and reforms in 1993 to enable leaseholders to reduce their ground rent to a peppercorn when extending their lease by 90 years.

    However, the proposal was quietly abandoned after Gove and officials at the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities met fierce resistance from the Treasury. It follows an intensive lobbying campaign by pension funds, some of which have invested billions in buying up freeholds for blocks of flats.

    The Treasury has been warned that pressing ahead with Gove’s plans could wipe out between £15 billion and £40 billion of investment, which could significantly affect individual pensioners as pension funds are big investors in housing developments. Housing campaigners say the potential impact has been greatly exaggerated.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-10-scuppers-gove-plan-to-reduce-ground-rents-to-zero-hc0f635sr

    TBF that's the pension funds - which most of us have bits of - rather than actual oldies.

    But what I don't understand is that the Scots could do it with feu duties. So why not English leaseholds?

    Mind, the Scots had to wait till they got their parliament back, and a Lab-LD coalition. And this might suggest that English leaseholding interests were a problem. No idea whether it was, but the timing is interesting - almost the first major legislative change.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,946

    ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote
    Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote

    Dare call it gerrymandering? Tbh I'd not spotted this angle.

    No it’s process

    Anyway presumably they are engaged and thoughtful people who will be registered at their home address

    It probably benefits the Tories to have their vote concentrated in a small number of seats tbh
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,909

    Pensioners screw over younger voters again.

    Michael Gove is fighting to salvage his flagship reforms of England’s leasehold system after a major proposal was quietly axed by the Treasury and Downing Street.

    In January last year, Gove told The Sunday Times he wanted to abolish leasehold, which he described as an “outdated feudal system that needs to go”.

    The housing secretary was forced to lower his ambitions after resistance from No 10, and in November announced a less radical leasehold reform bill to make it easier and cheaper for people to buy the freehold of their properties.

    There are about ten million leaseholders in England and Wales. They own the right to occupy their home but the building or land is owned by a freeholder landlord. Some leaseholders are trapped by onerous ground rents that are either doubling or increasing in line with the retail prices index rate of inflation, costing them thousands a year.

    A key part of Gove’s plan was to reduce all ground rents to a zero (“peppercorn”) rate, which he hoped would give landlords the incentive to sell the freehold to leaseholders, leading to a phasing-out of the system.

    The plan was to add the provision to the bill after a consultation, which closed in January. This would have gone further than the cap on ground rents for new homes, introduced in 2022, and reforms in 1993 to enable leaseholders to reduce their ground rent to a peppercorn when extending their lease by 90 years.

    However, the proposal was quietly abandoned after Gove and officials at the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities met fierce resistance from the Treasury. It follows an intensive lobbying campaign by pension funds, some of which have invested billions in buying up freeholds for blocks of flats.

    The Treasury has been warned that pressing ahead with Gove’s plans could wipe out between £15 billion and £40 billion of investment, which could significantly affect individual pensioners as pension funds are big investors in housing developments. Housing campaigners say the potential impact has been greatly exaggerated.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-10-scuppers-gove-plan-to-reduce-ground-rents-to-zero-hc0f635sr

    Actually if (a big if) what the Treasury are saying is true it is not the current Pensioners who would be losing out but those still in work who will be future pensioners - the younger ones like me. This would not affect current pensions where the annuities are already set, but future pensions which wuld be radically reduced in value.

    Again, this depends on the Pension funds and Treasury having a point which I am in no position to say.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,166
    edited March 24

    Pensioners screw over younger voters again.

    Michael Gove is fighting to salvage his flagship reforms of England’s leasehold system after a major proposal was quietly axed by the Treasury and Downing Street.

    In January last year, Gove told The Sunday Times he wanted to abolish leasehold, which he described as an “outdated feudal system that needs to go”.

    The housing secretary was forced to lower his ambitions after resistance from No 10, and in November announced a less radical leasehold reform bill to make it easier and cheaper for people to buy the freehold of their properties.

    There are about ten million leaseholders in England and Wales. They own the right to occupy their home but the building or land is owned by a freeholder landlord. Some leaseholders are trapped by onerous ground rents that are either doubling or increasing in line with the retail prices index rate of inflation, costing them thousands a year.

    A key part of Gove’s plan was to reduce all ground rents to a zero (“peppercorn”) rate, which he hoped would give landlords the incentive to sell the freehold to leaseholders, leading to a phasing-out of the system.

    The plan was to add the provision to the bill after a consultation, which closed in January. This would have gone further than the cap on ground rents for new homes, introduced in 2022, and reforms in 1993 to enable leaseholders to reduce their ground rent to a peppercorn when extending their lease by 90 years.

    However, the proposal was quietly abandoned after Gove and officials at the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities met fierce resistance from the Treasury. It follows an intensive lobbying campaign by pension funds, some of which have invested billions in buying up freeholds for blocks of flats.

    The Treasury has been warned that pressing ahead with Gove’s plans could wipe out between £15 billion and £40 billion of investment, which could significantly affect individual pensioners as pension funds are big investors in housing developments. Housing campaigners say the potential impact has been greatly exaggerated.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-10-scuppers-gove-plan-to-reduce-ground-rents-to-zero-hc0f635sr

    Actually if (a big if) what the Treasury are saying is true it is not the current Pensioners who would be losing out but those still in work who will be future pensioners - the younger ones like me. This would not affect current pensions where the annuities are already set, but future pensions which wuld be radically reduced in value.

    Again, this depends on the Pension funds and Treasury having a point which I am in no position to say.
    It wouldn’t surprise me - freeholds were seen as a risk free investment. And if you want more return - just turn the dial. Without thinking about the effect on the risk free bit.

    Edit: 15-40Bn is a tiny fraction of pension funds. Either a minority of funds went big on freeholds, or the industry is just upset at losing a chunk of their “risk free” profits
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,898
    I watched Hunt, and was struck by his attitude to poverty. He really didn’t seem to think that there’s a problem, or at least one that wouldn’t easily be solved by economic growth.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,348

    I watched Hunt, and was struck by his attitude to poverty. He really didn’t seem to think that there’s a problem, or at least one that wouldn’t easily be solved by economic growth.

    It certainly isn't going to be solved without economic growth.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,841
    Sandpit said:
    Mohammed Ben Sulayem will just get it reversed, because it's Alonso:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/68465516
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,946

    The tories need to take this to a GE as soon as possible. It will only get worse.

    What will only get worse? Tory infighting will not stop because they are thrown out of office, but if there is no general election until there has to be, Conservative MPs get paid for another six months, and ministers keep their red boxes and chauffeur-driven cars. And there is always the chance that something will turn up to make the government poll better than expected, as in 1992 and 2010, for instance.
    Be nice. They’re just trying to can the can.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,898
    Cookie said:

    I watched Hunt, and was struck by his attitude to poverty. He really didn’t seem to think that there’s a problem, or at least one that wouldn’t easily be solved by economic growth.

    It certainly isn't going to be solved without economic growth.
    That’s true, of course, but suggesting that most or all of those in poverty are there as a result of their failures isn’t.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,946
    pigeon said:

    DavidL said:

    ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote
    Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote

    Dare call it gerrymandering? Tbh I'd not spotted this angle.

    They would presumably be registered to vote in their own constituencies. At the most it might reduce the "student effect" on a University town.
    It's a fair point, though OTOH this could be viewed as another form of voter suppression. Just as the ID reforms don't theoretically block anyone from voting, but in practice are more likely to put off poorer voters who have to go out of their way to obtain documents that they may not already have, so this might result in a lot of students being obliged to apply for postal ballots. These are going to be first time voters: even if they aren't put off by the faff, they might easily fail to twig that this is necessary, or they might not get it done in time.

    In this case (unlike voter ID) the exclusion of voters who aren't friendly to the Tories would be a by-product of circumstances rather than a deliberate act, but it might still be a concern.
    A useful maxim for life: never ascribe to malice what can be adequately explained by incompetence

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,195

    ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote
    Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote

    Dare call it gerrymandering? Tbh I'd not spotted this angle.

    No it’s process

    Anyway presumably they are engaged and thoughtful people who will be registered at their home address

    It probably benefits the Tories to have their vote concentrated in a small number of seats tbh
    Yes but they will not be at their home address. Ah, you say, but they can apply for postal votes, and yes they can, but unless everyone does, then the aim (if it is an aim and not an unintended side-effect) of reducing the number of student voters will have been achieved.
  • Simon_PeachSimon_Peach Posts: 407
    Well the Tories in North Yorkshire have come up with a wizard wheeze to save Julian Smith at the GE… force working class families on the edge of the county to start paying for their own school buses unless they agree to throw away generations of tradition, and maybe split up siblings, and send their children over two county borders to a different school that is marginally closer… Reform UK haven’t got hold of the issue yet, but they will…
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    The Labour candidate for Honiton & Sidmouth saying the quiet bit out loud:

    https://seatonmatters.org/2024/03/23/under-no-circumstances-can-we-let-the-tories-win-here-says-labour-candidate-in-big-boost-to-richard-foords-lib-dem-campaign/

    There's going to be a lot of this happening on the ground across England.

    And the LibDems will reciprocate, as Ed Davey makes very clear in this New Statesman interview:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/encounter/2024/03/ed-davey-liberal-democrats-labour-starmer-fighting-conservatives

    I expect a Tory polling recovery but I also expect a level of anti-Tory tactical voting we have not seen previously at a UK GE. There was plenty in 1997 and 2001 but now we have many more resources to help people make informed decisions. The anti-Tory vote is going to be hugely motivated when we do finally get a GE.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,292
    Eabhal said:

    Pensioners screw over younger voters again.

    Michael Gove is fighting to salvage his flagship reforms of England’s leasehold system after a major proposal was quietly axed by the Treasury and Downing Street.

    In January last year, Gove told The Sunday Times he wanted to abolish leasehold, which he described as an “outdated feudal system that needs to go”.

    The housing secretary was forced to lower his ambitions after resistance from No 10, and in November announced a less radical leasehold reform bill to make it easier and cheaper for people to buy the freehold of their properties.

    There are about ten million leaseholders in England and Wales. They own the right to occupy their home but the building or land is owned by a freeholder landlord. Some leaseholders are trapped by onerous ground rents that are either doubling or increasing in line with the retail prices index rate of inflation, costing them thousands a year.

    A key part of Gove’s plan was to reduce all ground rents to a zero (“peppercorn”) rate, which he hoped would give landlords the incentive to sell the freehold to leaseholders, leading to a phasing-out of the system.

    The plan was to add the provision to the bill after a consultation, which closed in January. This would have gone further than the cap on ground rents for new homes, introduced in 2022, and reforms in 1993 to enable leaseholders to reduce their ground rent to a peppercorn when extending their lease by 90 years.

    However, the proposal was quietly abandoned after Gove and officials at the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities met fierce resistance from the Treasury. It follows an intensive lobbying campaign by pension funds, some of which have invested billions in buying up freeholds for blocks of flats.

    The Treasury has been warned that pressing ahead with Gove’s plans could wipe out between £15 billion and £40 billion of investment, which could significantly affect individual pensioners as pension funds are big investors in housing developments. Housing campaigners say the potential impact has been greatly exaggerated.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-10-scuppers-gove-plan-to-reduce-ground-rents-to-zero-hc0f635sr

    Brilliant news for detached sprawl developers too. Their model of land banking and profit maximisation would've been undercut by this reform.
    I have not understood the ramifications of this reform as I've not paid much attention. However, I will say that the Treasury is an absolute blight on good governance and economic success for the country. They need to be broken, their department chopped up and merged with others. The PM should be responsible for the economic strategy for the country.

    Time and again the Treasury has undermined the authority of the PM, almost always with disastrous consequences. As an example, they tracked the DM, leading to the economic downturn of the late-80s, against Thatcher's express instructions. That was with a PM of the character of Thatcher. What chance have Sunak or Starmer got to bring meaningful positive change, even if they wanted to?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,334

    Well the Tories in North Yorkshire have come up with a wizard wheeze to save Julian Smith at the GE… force working class families on the edge of the county to start paying for their own school buses unless they agree to throw away generations of tradition, and maybe split up siblings, and send their children over two county borders to a different school that is marginally closer… Reform UK haven’t got hold of the issue yet, but they will…

    Councils have no money for anything that isn't nailed down in law.

    Simple as that.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,128

    The Labour candidate for Honiton & Sidmouth saying the quiet bit out loud:

    https://seatonmatters.org/2024/03/23/under-no-circumstances-can-we-let-the-tories-win-here-says-labour-candidate-in-big-boost-to-richard-foords-lib-dem-campaign/

    There's going to be a lot of this happening on the ground across England.

    And the LibDems will reciprocate, as Ed Davey makes very clear in this New Statesman interview:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/encounter/2024/03/ed-davey-liberal-democrats-labour-starmer-fighting-conservatives

    I expect a Tory polling recovery but I also expect a level of anti-Tory tactical voting we have not seen previously at a UK GE. There was plenty in 1997 and 2001 but now we have many more resources to help people make informed decisions. The anti-Tory vote is going to be hugely motivated when we do finally get a GE.

    Let's hope so. Even many tories accept there needs to be a change of government now. The country needs new leadership rather than this clown show.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,946
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    MikeL said:

    Betfair has a much more liquid market on whether there will be a confidence vote before the GE:

    Yes: 4.0/4.2
    No: 1.31/1.33

    I have had a nibble of that. Good tip.
    If I was nibbling I would be betting no. Surely even the Tories are not so stupid as to put us through that again.
    Only a small number have to be that stupid. Is it currently 55?
    I think so but those 55 have to be that stupid at the same time because people can withdraw their letters too.

    Let's face it Sunak is a terrible politician. What made a man with such obvious talents and wealth decide to commit himself to politics baffles me. Presumably ego or a genuine commitment to public service. He has taken on the fag end of a government that had exhausted itself with its internal wars and the grind of being in power for 14 years. He seems very short of meaningful ideas. The one he has thrown himself at, this Rwanda nonsense, is just bizarre.

    The Tories are going to get a hammering. The question is how much of a hammering. I really don't see any upside of any potential future leader volunteering for that. I would expect them to be discouraging their supporters from even triggering this. Much better to take over as LOTO and start the
    rebuild.
    I suspect it’s quite simple

    1. He has seen data to say that immigration is a high salience issue and voters want the government to be “tough”
    2. He understands the economic consequences of restricting immigration
    3. He knows that it will take too long to reform the immigration service to have a meaningful impact
    4. He knows the French can’t/won’t stop the flow of people and the flows *into* Europe are only getting bigger

    Basically he knows it can’t be fixed short term. So he chooses something high profile and controversial that:

    1. If he gets it through will have a positive impact (in the sense of moving things in the direction of reducing immigration) even if it will likely be marginal
    2. If it is blocked then he gets to blame Labour

    Basically it’s like the “hostile environment” policy - signalling because actually doing something is hard

    So I can see why he might conclude it’s rational to go all in.

    But he’s not pricing the negative intangibles correctly in my view (both personal and to the party)
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,019
    edited March 24
    Seems to be three Su-27 aircraft damaged in strikes on Belbek airbase in Crimea last night too.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,841
    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    Donkeys said:

    Crocus:

    1. Bearing in mind that that unit was unlikely have been headed to Belarus, what's the likelihood that both Zelensky and Putin are telling the truth and that while the Kiev government wasn't involved, the terror unit had support on the Ukrainian side of the lines? There are certainly Muslim units on that side, including Chechens. I don't know their orientation, but presumably the Chechens are anti Kadyrov and perhaps some of them are Islamists? I somewhat doubt they are social democrats or centrists. I wonder whether Kadyrov will say anything.

    2. How to assess the Russian government line that they foiled a terror attack on a synagogue in Moscow? Are the members of the unit in custody, dead, or at large? What connection was there with the planning and support for Crocus? Or was there no such planned attack?

    Nah, not Ukraine.

    There are lots of peoples who hate Russia and willing to do these acts. When ISIS says its them believe them.
    Islamic State has claimed at least one terrorist act that demonstratively wasn't theirs. I forget which one I read about.
    Gruesome bodycam video of the attack including shooting people and throat slitting is reported by OSINTdefender on twitter as being hosted on a media centre aligned to ISIS.

    I don’t doubt this was ISIS. They aren’t chums with Russia and Putin and have done similar before.
    Not always ISIS either. Remember the Beslan school massacre? Islamist, but not ISIS.

    The Crocus terrorism is being blamed on Ukraine by Putin to deflect from his own security failures. The US warned that its security services had heard of a plan to attack Russian targets including concert halls, the Russians dismissed it as scaremongering.

    It's very reminiscent of the Bataclan massacre in Paris.
    WRT ISIS, I seem to recall there was some debate about whether certain groups were part of ISIS or not during the height of their Syria and Iraq campaign. A group would call itself ISIS in *wherever*, only for ISIS to deny that the group was part of them. Or a split would occur, and the smaller group still call itself ISIS. This is particularly complicated by their idea of having 'provinces' of caliphate supporters, e.g. those in Mali or Mozambique.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,864
    It’s odd that THE TRUSS has been omitted from the Tory ‘Leadership’ Poll. With her at the helm, the Tories would surely be 20 points ahead?
  • Simon_PeachSimon_Peach Posts: 407

    Well the Tories in North Yorkshire have come up with a wizard wheeze to save Julian Smith at the GE… force working class families on the edge of the county to start paying for their own school buses unless they agree to throw away generations of tradition, and maybe split up siblings, and send their children over two county borders to a different school that is marginally closer… Reform UK haven’t got hold of the issue yet, but they will…

    Councils have no money for anything that isn't nailed down in law.

    Simple as that.
    Maybe, but this won’t really save money… bussing kids 12 miles isn’t any cheaper than bussing them 13 miles… and in the public meetings so far, those affected are not listening empathetically to arguments that the Tories aren’t to blame because Central Government funding hasn’t kept up with cost increases…
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,489
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    DavidL said:

    ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote
    Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote

    Dare call it gerrymandering? Tbh I'd not spotted this angle.

    They would presumably be registered to vote in their own constituencies. At the most it might reduce the "student effect" on a University town.
    It's a fair point, though OTOH this could be viewed as another form of voter suppression. Just as the ID reforms don't theoretically block anyone from voting, but in practice are more likely to put off poorer voters who have to go out of their way to obtain documents that they may not already have, so this might result in a lot of students being obliged to apply for postal ballots. These are going to be first time voters: even if they aren't put off by the faff, they might easily fail to twig that this is necessary, or they might not get it done in time.

    In this case (unlike voter ID) the exclusion of voters who aren't friendly to the Tories would be a by-product of circumstances rather than a deliberate act, but it might still be a concern.
    I don't know how things work in England but in Scotland all of my children have been on the electoral register well before their 18th birthday. It seemed to be organised through the schools. 2 of them have gone away to University but they remained registered here. In fact one of them still is although she is now working in Edinburgh and really ought to switch constituencies.

    So unless it is very different in England I don't see this as any form of voter suppression. I also think, as JRM was pointing out the other day that voter ID is actually more of a problem for the elderly than the young who usually have documents that can get themselves into pubs or nightclubs.
    As Scots can vote for Holyrood at 16 they can register earlier than in England, where 17 year old can register.

    Dual registration is fine and legal as long as only using one vote, and part of the reason for low turnout among youngsters. Foxjr2 is both registered at my address and his London address, but will be recorded as 50% turnout. Likely to be LD from our last conversation. Not Labour because of Starmers Gaza policy.
    As long as you only use one vote at the general election. If you have valid dual registration in different local authorities, you are allowed to vote in both on the same day. I think!
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 413
    edited March 24
    Foxy said:

    Donkeys said:

    Crocus:

    1. Bearing in mind that that unit was unlikely have been headed to Belarus, what's the likelihood that both Zelensky and Putin are telling the truth and that while the Kiev government wasn't involved, the terror unit had support on the Ukrainian side of the lines? There are certainly Muslim units on that side, including Chechens. I don't know their orientation, but presumably the Chechens are anti Kadyrov and perhaps some of them are Islamists? I somewhat doubt they are social democrats or centrists. I wonder whether Kadyrov will say anything.

    2. How to assess the Russian government line that they foiled a terror attack on a synagogue in Moscow? Are the members of the unit in custody, dead, or at large? What connection was there with the planning and support for Crocus? Or was there no such planned attack?

    Nah, not Ukraine.

    There are lots of peoples who hate Russia and willing to do these acts. When ISIS says its them believe them.
    The hypothesis wasn't that it was Ukraine, i.e. the Ukrainian government, but that the unit had support from Islamists on the Ukrainian side of the front.

    Re. "peoples who hate Russia", there have always been compradores in every part of the Russian empire (and every other empire). One of them for example is Ramzan Kadyrov.

    I would like to have more information about the anti-Kadyrov Chechen military forces fighting on the side of the Ukrainian government. Could they possibly be a tad Isissy? This is the question.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,841
    "Poland says a missile briefly entered its airspace during Russia's overnight attack.

    One of the Russian cruise missiles targeting western Ukraine flew into Polish airspace for about 39 seconds at 4:23 a.m., Polish Air Force's Operational Command said."

    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1771822033564815547

    To avoid Ukrainian air defenses, the Russians are sending their missiles over somewhat roundabout trajectories.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,841
    Donkeys said:

    Foxy said:

    Donkeys said:

    Crocus:

    1. Bearing in mind that that unit was unlikely have been headed to Belarus, what's the likelihood that both Zelensky and Putin are telling the truth and that while the Kiev government wasn't involved, the terror unit had support on the Ukrainian side of the lines? There are certainly Muslim units on that side, including Chechens. I don't know their orientation, but presumably the Chechens are anti Kadyrov and perhaps some of them are Islamists? I somewhat doubt they are social democrats or centrists. I wonder whether Kadyrov will say anything.

    2. How to assess the Russian government line that they foiled a terror attack on a synagogue in Moscow? Are the members of the unit in custody, dead, or at large? What connection was there with the planning and support for Crocus? Or was there no such planned attack?

    Nah, not Ukraine.

    There are lots of peoples who hate Russia and willing to do these acts. When ISIS says its them believe them.
    The hypothesis wasn't that it was Ukraine, i.e. the Ukrainian government, but that the unit had support from Islamists on the Ukrainian side of the front.

    Re. "peoples who hate Russia", there have always been compradores in every part of the Russian empire. One of them for example is Ramzan Kadyrov.

    I would like to have more information about the anti-Kadyrov Chechen military forces fighting on the side of the Ukrainian government. Could they possibly be a tad Isissy? This is the question.
    Nah, it's a load of whataboutism, with zero firm evidence behind it. I wouldn't be surprised if Lavatory or Medvedev start blaming Britain - it seems to be the latter's go-to excuse for anything.

    You'd be better off asking if it was a false flag, or a let-it-happen from some parts of the Russian government...
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,489
    MattW said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    pigeon said:

    DavidL said:

    ‘Left without a voice’: October general election could leave students in UK unable to vote
    Universities fear an autumn election will not leave undergraduates enough time to register

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/23/left-without-a-voice-october-general-election-could-leave-students-in-uk-unable-to-vote

    Dare call it gerrymandering? Tbh I'd not spotted this angle.

    They would presumably be registered to vote in their own constituencies. At the most it might reduce the "student effect" on a University town.
    It's a fair point, though OTOH this could be viewed as another form of voter suppression. Just as the ID reforms don't theoretically block anyone from voting, but in practice are more likely to put off poorer voters who have to go out of their way to obtain documents that they may not already have, so this might result in a lot of students being obliged to apply for postal ballots. These are going to be first time voters: even if they aren't put off by the faff, they might easily fail to twig that this is necessary, or they might not get it done in time.

    In this case (unlike voter ID) the exclusion of voters who aren't friendly to the Tories would be a by-product of circumstances rather than a deliberate act, but it might still be a concern.
    I don't know how things work in England but in Scotland all of my children have been on the electoral register well before their 18th birthday. It seemed to be organised through the schools. 2 of them have gone away to University but they remained registered here. In fact one of them still is although she is now working in Edinburgh and really ought to switch constituencies.

    So unless it is very different in England I don't see this as any form of voter suppression. I also think, as JRM was pointing out the other day that voter ID is actually more of a problem for the elderly than the young who usually have documents that can get themselves into pubs or nightclubs.
    As Scots can vote for Holyrood at 16 they can register earlier than in England, where 17 year old can register.

    Dual registration is fine and legal as long as only using one vote, and part of the reason for low turnout among youngsters. Foxjr2 is both registered at my address and his London address, but will be recorded as 50% turnout. Likely to be LD from our last conversation. Not Labour because of Starmers Gaza policy.
    Serious question about Foxjr2's opinion. What does s/he actually want?

    I have 2 concerns, remembering single views on single issue politics from my own university days.

    My view remains that the anti-Israel merging into anti-Jewish policy as espoused by so many on the Labour (and Left of Labour) Left associated with eg Corbyn and friends is 1 - often racist, and 2 - often iIl-considered.

    1 - For obvious reasons; despite self-serving "but we don't mean Jews" semantics.

    2 - Because the actions demanded of Israel may achieve little, and perpetuate war in the Middle East, because the Govt of Iran is maintaining / fomenting-as-it-judges-necessary war across multiple countries, far more actively than Israel has.

    Israel been making peace with neighbours in multiple directions for quite a long time now.

    How does FoxyJr react when the numbers of deaths in Syria, Yemen etc are counted up for a comparison?

    The monomaniacal attitude from many in Labour on this issue is one reason why I will have to think *very* carefully before voting Labour. The continuing subservience to Trade Unions is the other major one that comes up for me every time I consider casting my vote that way at any level.
    I received a leaflet yesterday from Zoe Garbett, the Green candidate for London Mayor. The front had a box saying she supported an immediate ceasefire. (I’m sure Bibi will be reconsidering his approach to Gaza now!)

    The leaflet also celebrated her recent “success” in the Hackney mayoral election where she got 25%. I’d call getting 25% in an election “losing” rather than a “success”…
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