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A new hope is needed for Sunak – politicalbetting.com
A new hope is needed for Sunak – politicalbetting.com
?NEW London Mayoral Voting Intention for @centreforlondon ?24pt Sadiq Khan lead?Lab 51 (+11)?Con 27 (-8)?LD 10 (+6)?Green 8 (=)??Reform 2 (NEW)??Other 3 (-10)1,510 Londoners, 8-12 March(chg vs 2021 result (1st prefs)) pic.twitter.com/reE8S3W6qS
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/15/kremlin-papers-appear-to-show-putins-plot-to-put-trump-in-white-house
Yes, of course they might be. And they might be wrong for exactly those reasons. In fact, they are *definitely* wrong because they aren't the actual vote.
But there just as many reasons why they are broadly right as there are for them being broadly wrong.
Maybe SK *won't* land >50%. But there would be something seriously awry if he didn't win on this polling, and the rest of it is kind of irrelevant - unless the polls systematically narrow.
We're so used to seeing comparatively small differences between the parties, we continue to analyse on the same basis. While 42-34 seems like a large difference (8 points), a shift of just a few points over a campaign takes us to "too close to call" territory. We're nowhere near that today.
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/1771192248241197248
In short, respondents are asked what they think the result will be i.e guessing each party share, rather than giving their own vote intention.
Which means that a lot of people are expecting the Tories to do better than polling.
problem is that that will encourage Labour voters to go and vote while allowing Tory voters to take the day off and not waste time voting
I'm not in the slightest doubt. I'm 100% certain.
This suggests "something middling".
Is it anticipation of swingback, or things improving?
Or is it that the hole that the Conservatives are in is so deep that we can't really imagine it? (43-31 being roughly what happened in 1997 and therefore as bad a night for the blue team as anyone can really imagine.)
https://www.thecricketer.com/Topics/countycricket/alex_stewart_leave_surrey_director_of_cricket_2024_season_.html?t=638467201926989649
2010 is more marginal. No academy chains, dud exams written by incoherent drunks or foundation trusts, but also a public sector in disarray in a situation it wasn't programmed for and an economy in a shambles.
Globally the aim is to reduce the coherance of any unifying or coherant narrative about the west, promoting discord and outrage, turning people against each other making decision making impossible and ultimately weakening the power of the west which is seen by Russia as its main adversary. So when you look at anything from Scottish Independence, Brexit, Trump, BLM, Colonialism, womens safety campaigns, right through to Gaza, they find a way of manipulating them to make them more divisive and polarised to confuse people. The Russian state has no real allies other than the occasional sycophant, everything is viewed cynically and as a tool to secure its own survival.
It's moderately warm, and the sky is a sort of weird blue-ish colour. Plus, when you step outside there's not thousands of gallons of water landing on top of you the way there usually is.
Does anyone know what this phenomenon is called?
(I don't 'agree' with the markets FWIW, but an amazing stat nevertheless)
It's not a poll.
No paperwork either.
OK. What about the Scottish referendum (2014), GE2015, Brexit2016, GE2017 and GE2019? That's quite a lot of omissions...
They were not sustained for - other reasons...
I'm not sure if these are a cause of the Cons collapse or just another symptom of why that collapse has happened. There are too many in No 10 that seem to have no idea what they are doing.
I’m reminded of this from hitch hikers guide to the galaxy
There’s no point in acting surprised about it. All the planning charts and demolition orders have been on display at your local planning department in Alpha Centauri for 50 of your Earth years, so you’ve had plenty of time to lodge any formal complaint and it’s far too late to start making a fuss about it now. … What do you mean you’ve never been to Alpha Centauri? Oh, for heaven’s sake, mankind, it’s only four light years away, you know. I’m sorry, but if you can’t be bothered to take an interest in local affairs, that’s your own lookout. Energize the demolition beams.
https://news.sky.com/story/donald-trumps-social-media-company-to-go-public-potentially-netting-him-3bn-13099909
Probably too late to rescue him in his fraud case.
Also, there is some question about whether he can be involved with its management given Engoron's ruling.
(Context of a Boris return is ridiculous though/)
"Do you remember the riots of 2010 when Joey Barton and fellow patriots took to the streets in faux outrage about the St George's cross in four different colours..."
https://x.com/KitCrimes/status/1770919855862026673?s=20
"Changing flag colours on sports kits really is nothing new."
https://x.com/bowieclone/status/1770947121862074713?s=20
What points specifically have I failed to address?
Mind you, I suppose that must recommend him to a lot of people here!
Its excellence was for sail.
Unrelatedly I had an experience which has never happened to me before on the British network. On an earlier train this morning the driver forgot to stop at a station. This wasn’t on some chug-chug two carriage train but the high speed GWR line. After a lot of kerfuffle, the driver walked through to the other end of the train and secured permission to reverse the train back up the line to the last station.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/mar/22/rishi-sunak-tory-local-election-campaign-waspi-women-pension-row-uk-politics-live-latest-news-updates
No one cares if they incorporate elements of a flag into a shirt design (e.g. USA 94 with stars on their shirt).
Given the current polling I wouldn’t use this crowd estimate for betting purposes - I suspect the wisdom is still biased on history rather than current reality
They will have had more Speakers than we've had PMs at this rate.
Marjorie Taylor Greene: “I do not wish to inflict pain on our conference and throw the House in chaos. But this is basically a warning, and it's time for us…To find a new Speaker of the House.”
..
https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1771210563432927305
And all because they agreed not to defund the government.
One thing strongly stands out from this, and it's not the Lab-Con lead. It's "Minor parties: 13%". Bear in mind the SNP and Plaid account for at least 3, probably 4% of that 13. That leaves 8-9% for the Greens and Reform.
People are, to coin a @MoonRabbit term, Dutch saluting the pollsters at the moment when it comes to Reform. They're expressing their outrage at the government by stating in no uncertain terms that they're going to vote for the loons instead and have no intention of coming back. Except they know deep down, when push comes to shove and they face the realities of FPTP, that they'll come back home. Likewise a not insignificant number of lefties are likely to be flashing their fronts about voting Green, but they should admit to themselves that when faced with Lab or Con in their seat they'll vote Labour.
Whereas look at Lib Dem. Higher than the polls. That's because it's not being used as a protest statement to pollsters. And people also know that they and their fellow voters will vote tactically come the day.
So Labour gains a couple of percent from Green and loses it to the Lib Dems but stays roughly neutral vs the polls, and Conservatives bag a bumper tally of pretend Reform votes adding around 6% to their total. Seems pretty plausible to me.
One of the reasons an ex-Yorkshire Party councillor defected to Reform (other than his complete unreliability) was my opposition to campaigning on WASPI compensation (I think his wife is potentially a beneficiary; he's the right age). But he was adamant they'd lost out as badly.
Bullies tend to be cowards. Trump's positive thinking is unlikely to convince him for more than a few days that his jail cell isn't a jail cell. He couldn't cope with jail and he knows it.
Conclusion: he might flee to another country. But which one?
The biggest lolz would be if it's Russia.
Brazil is off the list of possibles now.
How about EL SALVADOR? He could live in Bitcoin City. He has already begun to "soften his stance" on cryptocurrency.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/11/trump-suggests-he-would-not-oppose-bitcoin.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin_City
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-68377406
"The president of El Salvador told American conservatives to "put up a fight" against the "global elites" in order to get their country back."
Women who got their state pension at the same age as a man would should be given nothing more than a dictionary if they think they are victims of inequality.
The Democrats might offer him a reprieve, in return for a vote on Ukraine aid.
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/03/22/congress/dems-could-back-mike-johnson-motion-vacate-house-00148564
..House Democrats say Mike Johnson has an option to control his future over a motion to vacate from Marjorie Taylor Green: putting a Ukraine aid package on the floor.
Several Democrats from across the ideological spectrum said in interviews with POLITICO they would motion to table Greene’s resolution — if it came to a vote — if Johnson put a Ukraine aid package on the House floor for a vote...
Was the same here, I went out for a short walk, found myself caught in a brisk shower of incredibly cold rain.
Don't risk it and stay inside providing puns for PB.com is my advice.
The cruelest moments for Hur were when the House Democrats made him read the transcript of his own interview out loud.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4549869-hur-biden-special-counsel-report-vitriol/
Special counsel Robert Hur said that he didn’t expect how cruel critics would be after he released his report on President Biden’s handling of classified documents.
“I knew it was going to be unpleasant,” he said in an interview with The New Yorker. “But the level of vitriol — it’s hard to know exactly how intense that’s going to be until the rotten fruit is being thrown at you.”
Hur, who testified before Congress last week, has infuriated both sides of the aisle with his report. Republicans have criticized him for declining to prosecute Biden in his report and Democrats, including Biden, have criticized him for claiming in his report that the president is an elderly man with memory problems based on their interviews.
Hur told The New Yorker in the piece entitled, “Why Robert Hur Called Biden an ‘Elderly Man with a Poor Memory,’“ that he wrote his report only for Attorney General Merrick Garland, who appointed him to the special counsel position...
That bolded claim is more than a little disingenuous, since everyone knew the report would be made public.
Labour would have the sort of majority that lets them just get on with it, probably for two terms if they don't stuff it up.
Conservatives would be badly bloodied, but not fatally so. They have come back from 150-175, and could do so again.
Lib Dems would (if the distribution of their votes were efficient) be clearly back in the game.
Someone has to have got the end of the stick with poo on it. Reform? SNP? Oh well, never mind.
They do happen from time to time - consider 2017 UKGE, Denmark winning Euro '92, Headingley 2019 - but is the unlikely event a 1-in-5 or a 1-in-20 kind of unlikely? How do you tell?
Another point concerns those women of that particular "certain age" who were divorced and agreed to a financial settlement before the rises took place. It seems that a number of lawyers and judges might have been ignorant of the consequences of the change, and advised clients to accept settlements that might now be regarded as sub-optimal.
The justified complaint is on lack of communication. At a minimum a letter should have been sent out. The fair compensation range for that I would say is in the £250-£2k type range. I think £500 flat compensation and apology for mis communication is about right.
How is that "badly affected" at all. It just wasn't incredibly generous as others were, but that's how ending inequality works.
Women of any age who took any financial settlement had every opportunity to work until they reached retirement age, did they not?
From my balcony I can see two beautiful and unusual trees (amongst many others). Decidedly tall, slender grey elegant trunks, with pendulous hard brown fruit. I’ve tried Google Lens and ChatGPT and a couple of apps and none gets it right (AFAICT)
It’s NOT a ceiba tree nor a cannonball fruit tree nor a kapok tree nor a calabash
So, what is it? Maybe PB - unlike all other sources of great wisdom - can pin it down
Full length
Close up of the unusual fruit
Where Lloyd George went wrong was in failing to get cross-party agreement on the percentage of the population who should be entitled to a pension. Whether that might be 3% or 8% or 10% or whatever, I really don't care. But that would have meant that the pension age could have been raised or lowered once a decade or so in order to keep the same proportion of the population covered, without swingeing changes similar to the ones we have seen. How big each pension payment should be is, of course, another problem, but at least the cohort would have been identified and agreed.
She had a retirement age of 66.
She was treated the same as you.
Doesn't that strike you as a bit odd?
There's certainly no reason why retiring at the same age should be objectionable.
But Wiki insists this is a flowering plant not a tree. Can a tree be a flowering plant?
Come on, this is exciting