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Today PB celebrates its 20th birthday – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,748
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    Well this is both sad and touching. Thank-you, Our Most Genial of Hosts, I hope your health somehow allows you to return, occasionally

    It’s been a privilege to comment on this site these past 15, sorry 9, sorry 4, sorry 2 and a half, sorry 2 years. It really is like a pub except the locals wear terrifying masks and Hitler occasionally plays the piano

    Its also kept me sane and prevented me dying of loneliness on long foreign trips - such as this one right now

    Cheers to all of us, mods and commenters, anarchists and atheists, kippers and Communists, lurkers, lefties, LadyGs and lunatics, from the hot and cloudy jungles of Colombia






    They couldn’t come up with anything better than a wine so popular it’s in every Tesco in Britain? Is there any Colombian wine?
    No

    At least I haven’t found any

    I am extremely grateful for the existence of Chilean and Argentine wine - in Colombia. Otherwise it would be Californian or European and twice as pricey
    It exists! According to Google anyway:

    https://www.madalyneloree.com/post/explore-colombian-wine-country
    I may have spoken too soon:

    “INSIDER TIP: we found the wine in La Union to be quite sweet or dulce. They explained during the tour that while they do make drier wines (seco) the majority of their customer base in Colombia (mostly Colombians) instead like the sweet wines. In fact, we read that the majority of wine from Colombia is on the sweeter side (due to the elevation and climate). If you are like us and prefer drier wines, still definitely try the sweet wine - it is quite refreshing and delicious. “
    Almost every country I visit these days produces some kind of wine

    I’ve had Thai wine (not great). I’ve had Ethiopian wine (not bad at all). I’ve had Indian wine (meh but improving). I’ve had Egyptian wine (tolerable)

    It’s actually rare to find a country that doesn’t make wine

    Eg Denmark makes wine. Yes, Denmark

    https://www.visitdenmark.com/denmark/things-do/danish-food/vineyards

    Greenland. Iceland. Parts of west and central Africa - no wine
    As wine has become a mass market beverage it’s inevitable that it’s become much more widely produced, although it’s not yet as globalisable as beer.

    The distinction I’d make is between new wine regions that are able to reproduce, with effort, a palatable wine that tastes not dissimilar to other international wines, and new regions that manage to make wines that are distinct, and truly new, and reflect their terroir.

    Many (hot) countries have been able to do the former with some judicious coaxing by international winemakers. China to great success. But the really novel innovations have come from cooler places - either because they’re high latitude, or high altitude.

    Marlborough and North Otago, the higher bits of Mendoza, Southern Chile, British Columbia and Oregon, Ontario, Southern England and Wales, Tasmania, all regions that have brought something new and exciting to wine in the last few decades. I could well imagine Ethiopia having some interesting terroir given its climate. Bolivia should do too. But both Chile and Argentina are only just scratching the surface of their cooler climates further into Patagonia.

    I’ve had Bolivian wine - in Bolivia. And yes it was surprisingly good - like Ethiopia

    Japan stretches from virtual tundra to subtropics, with all kind of altitudes. Why aren’t they making great wine? They must have some suitable spots
    There are some. I follow one on Insta. Near Sapporo I think. Very stylish looking, rather like their whiskies.
    Ah. Then that proves the rule. Almost every country now makes wine
    So, quiz time: what country would be the most theoretically promising but is not currently a producer? Actually 2 countries.
    Iran and Algeria?
    Algeria does produce wine, I had some in Algiers. It was ok - French style rose/gris.
    Ah!

    Libya might also make good wine if it was allowed

    It was known for wine in the Roman era

    So was Yorkshire
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,617
    This is a fittingly classic PB chat diversion on its 20th birthday. I posted a photo of wine just to say cheers. Someone asked why it wasn’t Colombian wine

    Now we’re having detailed discussions of historic and potential wine making regions around the world, with an actual wine maker - @TimS - so it’s not just waffle

    That’s vintage PB. Ahem

    And now I’m going to walk three miles from my absurdly remote hotel bungalow to the pool. Later
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,123

    Thanks to OGH.

    Been here since just before GE2005.

    Most impressive prediction? RCS suggesting an 80 seat Conservative majority for GE2019. I only wish he had been wrong by 85 seats No, no, not a Tory majority of 165.

    D'you mean 42 seats?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,323
    Leon said:

    Vietnamese wine

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnamese_wine

    Swedish wine

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_wine

    Mexican wine

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_wine

    Cuban wine

    https://www.beyondtheordinary.co.uk/features/cuban-wine/

    Best of all tho is surely Armenian wine. I have been to the oldest winery in the world, its in Armenia, here it is



    it’s actually a cave with evidence of wine making dating from 4100BC. They also found the world’s oldest shoe here. A moccasin

    https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/article/110111-oldest-wine-press-making-winery-armenia-science-ucla

    Best of all, the grape used in 4000BC - the areni grape - is the same grape used in the same area today. You can buy modern wine made from it right next to the cave. Which is kinda brilliant

    Tried Mexican wine in, of all places, a pub in Cornwall. Tasty, reasonably full-bodied red. I’d like to find it again!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,554

    viewcode said:

    Reflecting back over the years, RIP to those former posters who were a significant part of the site, but, sadly, are not with us to mark the 20 year milestone.

    I remember when you were Yanis Varoufakis. Anyhoo...

    Left whilst still alive

    @RodCrosby (Holocaust remarks)
    @isam (argued with hosts, since returned)
    @antifrank aka @AlistairMeeks (argued with others, now blog author)
    @Charles (argued with others),
    @TissuePrice (works in a big shed somewhere)
    @SeanT (left, never to return)
    @IshmaelZ (argued with others)
    @MrEd (argued with hosts, thought to have returned)
    @CorrectHorseBattery (argued with others, thought to have returned)

    Left on death

    @SBS (died 2009)
    @PLATO (died 2017estimated)
    @MARKSENIOR (died 2017)
    @CALUM (died 2019)
    @NICHOMAR (died 2021)

    There have been others which I can't recall, and I know that at least one other has died, so if anybody can add more names I would be grateful.
    HappyDad was one of PB's teaching fraternity who was often sinbinned. I trust he is still around somewhere.
    In detention maybe?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,749
    MattW said:

    viewcode said:

    Reflecting back over the years, RIP to those former posters who were a significant part of the site, but, sadly, are not with us to mark the 20 year milestone.

    I remember when you were Yanis Varoufakis. Anyhoo...

    Left whilst still alive

    @RodCrosby (Holocaust remarks)
    @isam (argued with hosts, since returned)
    @antifrank aka @AlistairMeeks (argued with others, now blog author)
    @Charles (argued with others),
    @TissuePrice (works in a big shed somewhere)
    @SeanT (left, never to return)
    @IshmaelZ (argued with others)
    @MrEd (argued with hosts, thought to have returned)
    @CorrectHorseBattery (argued with others, thought to have returned)

    Left on death

    @SBS (died 2009)
    @PLATO (died 2017estimated)
    @MARKSENIOR (died 2017)
    @CALUM (died 2019)
    @NICHOMAR (died 2021)

    There have been others which I can't recall, and I know that at least one other has died, so if anybody can add more names I would be grateful.
    I think you have missed Mrs Balls.

    By the rule of permutation, BatteryCorrectHorse can only be banned 6 times without regenerating.
    Years ago I pulled the Apache access logs for the site, and wrote a little Python script to identify the most common places the site was accessed from. The top two were News International and the Houses of Parliament.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,175

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Reflecting back over the years, RIP to those former posters who were a significant part of the site, but, sadly, are not with us to mark the 20 year milestone.

    I remember when you were Yanis Varoufakis. Anyhoo...

    Left whilst still alive

    @RodCrosby (Holocaust remarks)
    @isam (argued with hosts, since returned)
    @antifrank aka @AlistairMeeks (argued with others, now blog author)
    @Charles (argued with others),
    @TissuePrice (works in a big shed somewhere)
    @SeanT (left, never to return)
    @IshmaelZ (argued with others)
    @MrEd (argued with hosts, thought to have returned)
    @CorrectHorseBattery (argued with others, thought to have returned)

    Left on death

    @SBS (died 2009)
    @PLATO (died 2017estimated)
    @MARKSENIOR (died 2017)
    @CALUM (died 2019)
    @NICHOMAR (died 2021)

    There have been others which I can't recall, and I know that at least one other has died, so if anybody can add more names I would be grateful.
    Mention of @SeanT reminds me of @eadric (flounced?), @Byronic (banned) and @LadyG (also banned) for some reason - I can't think why.

    (Incidentally, why is @eadric showing 0 posts? That's not right, shirley?)
    Presumably @eadric - who he? - chose to delete all of his content.
    Didn't even know that was possible. @tim obviously did the same, which is a pity. Some of his barbed comments were timeless. "How many samosas did Eric Pickles order?" Anyone else remember that one?
    I think, re. tim, back then we were on Disqus, rather than Vanilla comments?
    You could be right. ISTR he clocked up 15,000 posts in a year then flounced. No-one today could match his assiduity (I hope).
  • rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    viewcode said:

    Reflecting back over the years, RIP to those former posters who were a significant part of the site, but, sadly, are not with us to mark the 20 year milestone.

    I remember when you were Yanis Varoufakis. Anyhoo...

    Left whilst still alive

    @RodCrosby (Holocaust remarks)
    @isam (argued with hosts, since returned)
    @antifrank aka @AlistairMeeks (argued with others, now blog author)
    @Charles (argued with others),
    @TissuePrice (works in a big shed somewhere)
    @SeanT (left, never to return)
    @IshmaelZ (argued with others)
    @MrEd (argued with hosts, thought to have returned)
    @CorrectHorseBattery (argued with others, thought to have returned)

    Left on death

    @SBS (died 2009)
    @PLATO (died 2017estimated)
    @MARKSENIOR (died 2017)
    @CALUM (died 2019)
    @NICHOMAR (died 2021)

    There have been others which I can't recall, and I know that at least one other has died, so if anybody can add more names I would be grateful.
    I think you have missed Mrs Balls.

    By the rule of permutation, BatteryCorrectHorse can only be banned 6 times without regenerating.
    Years ago I pulled the Apache access logs for the site, and wrote a little Python script to identify the most common places the site was accessed from. The top two were News International and the Houses of Parliament.
    FYI I have sent you a PM :)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,127
    ydoethur said:

    Thanks to OGH.

    Been here since just before GE2005.

    Most impressive prediction? RCS suggesting an 80 seat Conservative majority for GE2019. I only wish he had been wrong by 85 seats No, no, not a Tory majority of 165.

    D'you mean 42 seats?
    Yes I do. Make it 43. It's been along day. Cowbridge to Newton Abbot to Crediton to Cowbridge, and three learners in between. Well that's my excuse anyway.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,273
    Just checked, it is coming up to exactly 12 years since OGH asked me to edit PB whilst he went on his holidays.

    Where does the time go?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,127

    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    viewcode said:

    Reflecting back over the years, RIP to those former posters who were a significant part of the site, but, sadly, are not with us to mark the 20 year milestone.

    I remember when you were Yanis Varoufakis. Anyhoo...

    Left whilst still alive

    @RodCrosby (Holocaust remarks)
    @isam (argued with hosts, since returned)
    @antifrank aka @AlistairMeeks (argued with others, now blog author)
    @Charles (argued with others),
    @TissuePrice (works in a big shed somewhere)
    @SeanT (left, never to return)
    @IshmaelZ (argued with others)
    @MrEd (argued with hosts, thought to have returned)
    @CorrectHorseBattery (argued with others, thought to have returned)

    Left on death

    @SBS (died 2009)
    @PLATO (died 2017estimated)
    @MARKSENIOR (died 2017)
    @CALUM (died 2019)
    @NICHOMAR (died 2021)

    There have been others which I can't recall, and I know that at least one other has died, so if anybody can add more names I would be grateful.
    I think you have missed Mrs Balls.

    By the rule of permutation, BatteryCorrectHorse can only be banned 6 times without regenerating.
    Years ago I pulled the Apache access logs for the site, and wrote a little Python script to identify the most common places the site was accessed from. The top two were News International and the Houses of Parliament.
    FYI I have sent you a PM :)
    Rishi, Liz or Boris?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,554

    Just checked, it is coming up to exactly 12 years since OGH asked me to edit PB whilst he went on his holidays.

    Where does the time go?

    Where does the time go? is an interesting philosophical and/or physics question.

    Where does it come from? is another tricky one.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,635
    On Topic We owe a huge debt to you Mike. Thanks so much.

    I hope your health situation turns out as good as it can

    As you say thanks for TSE and Robert for continuing the site.

    If we can get to those 2 massive events this year with this forum we are indeed fortunate.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,123
    edited March 21

    Just checked, it is coming up to exactly 12 years since OGH asked me to edit PB whilst he went on his holidays.

    Where does the time go?

    The worry is, every time you've been acting editor something unimaginably awful happens.

    Should we prepare for World War III now you're boss?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,552
    rcs1000 said:

    Donkeys said:

    viewcode said:

    Donkeys said:

    Leon said:

    That last chat was a bit depressing so here is something genuinely and wonderfully uplifting

    Elon Musk’s Neuralink gives a quadriplegic guy the chance to interact with a computer, and thus the world: a form of telekinesis. The joy on the guy’s face is 🥂👍🍷👏👏👏👏👏

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1770565942168420750?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Who knows. Maybe the future will be wondrous

    He's not developing this technology to help people. That's PR.

    Also some heavy-duty game is being played with the use of the name "Telepathy".

    Musk sees it as a step onwards from this preliminary stage we're in now in which most people's almost-permanent interface between their fleshspace self and planet digital is their smartphone. He has said as much.

    Personally I think Muskologists pay too little attention to Paypal.

    I imagine he is dashing to keep up with China, with "X" as the "superapp" hanger on to the tail of WeChat. Chinese people in China are only allowed WeChat accounts if they link them to their bank accounts. Most people in China haven't bought anything either with cash or a bank card for years.

    It's good to see you looking at implant tech. This is far more important than AI.
    • Cybertruck: Armoured Personnel Vehicle
    • Raptor-9: ICBM
    • Starship: Orbital Bombardment Vehicle (Earth)
    • Starship HLS: Troop transport and spaceborne assault vehicle
    • Boring flamethrowers: personal defence weapon
    • Starlink: information control satellites
    • Neuralink: enslavement and pacification device
    • Optimus: drone troops and terminators

    The guy is building Hydra in plain sight... :)
    rcs1000 said:

    Donkeys said:

    ...

    It's good to see you looking at implant tech. This is far more important than AI.

    Yep: China is genuinely cashless. The only people that ever use ATMs are tourists.

    But on the other hand, no, implant technology is not more important than AI.
    When parts of the British intelligentsia wake up and realise that mass head chipping isn't a good thing, and that the Luddites were right all along, it will be far too late. They'll have bought into it because of convenient consumption or public health or something.

    The good news is that what's true in Islington may not be true in Urumqi or Kashgar.
    Perhaps it won't be true in Hong Kong either.
    Oh, that's not the issue with implants.

    I'd be happy to be chipped tomorrow, were it not for the enormous evidence of the body violently rejecting foreign objects. (Watch the documentary about the Italian surgeon and the trachea implants of you want to be truly horrified.)
    Not all foreign objects. I have had a metal woodscrew in my knee since 1997.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,273

    Just checked, it is coming up to exactly 12 years since OGH asked me to edit PB whilst he went on his holidays.

    Where does the time go?

    Where does the time go? is an interesting philosophical and/or physics question.

    Where does it come from? is another tricky one.
    A big ball of wibbly wobbly, timey wimey stuff
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,635

    It's lovely to see quite a few lurkers signing up just to thanks Mike and send him best wishes.

    My plea to them is: now you've signed up, why not carry on and continue to join in? The more voices the better!

    Hear hear. To best wishes to Mike, and to the rest. It's how we all begin.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,127
    ydoethur said:

    Just checked, it is coming up to exactly 12 years since OGH asked me to edit PB whilst he went on his holidays.

    Where does the time go?

    The worry is, every time you've been acting editor something unimaginably awful happens.

    Should we prepare for World War III now you're boss?
    It could be worse. The Conservatives returned with a landslide on Friday 24th January, four days after Trump's inauguration.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,748
    Wales 4 Finland 1
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,332
    Happy Birthday PB!
    Happy retirement Mike!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,127
    IanB2 said:

    Wales 4 Finland 1

    Perhaps Finland could try Rugby Union for the win.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,660
    algarkirk said:

    geoffw said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    Well this is both sad and touching. Thank-you, Our Most Genial of Hosts, I hope your health somehow allows you to return, occasionally

    It’s been a privilege to comment on this site these past 15, sorry 9, sorry 4, sorry 2 and a half, sorry 2 years. It really is like a pub except the locals wear terrifying masks and Hitler occasionally plays the piano

    Its also kept me sane and prevented me dying of loneliness on long foreign trips - such as this one right now

    Cheers to all of us, mods and commenters, anarchists and atheists, kippers and Communists, lurkers, lefties, LadyGs and lunatics, from the hot and cloudy jungles of Colombia






    They couldn’t come up with anything better than a wine so popular it’s in every Tesco in Britain? Is there any Colombian wine?
    No

    At least I haven’t found any

    I am extremely grateful for the existence of Chilean and Argentine wine - in Colombia. Otherwise it would be Californian or European and twice as pricey
    It exists! According to Google anyway:

    https://www.madalyneloree.com/post/explore-colombian-wine-country
    I may have spoken too soon:

    “INSIDER TIP: we found the wine in La Union to be quite sweet or dulce. They explained during the tour that while they do make drier wines (seco) the majority of their customer base in Colombia (mostly Colombians) instead like the sweet wines. In fact, we read that the majority of wine from Colombia is on the sweeter side (due to the elevation and climate). If you are like us and prefer drier wines, still definitely try the sweet wine - it is quite refreshing and delicious. “
    Almost every country I visit these days produces some kind of wine

    I’ve had Thai wine (not great). I’ve had Ethiopian wine (not bad at all). I’ve had Indian wine (meh but improving). I’ve had Egyptian wine (tolerable)

    It’s actually rare to find a country that doesn’t make wine

    Eg Denmark makes wine. Yes, Denmark

    https://www.visitdenmark.com/denmark/things-do/danish-food/vineyards

    Greenland. Iceland. Parts of west and central Africa - no wine
    As wine has become a mass market beverage it’s inevitable that it’s become much more widely produced, although it’s not yet as globalisable as beer.

    The distinction I’d make is between new wine regions that are able to reproduce, with effort, a palatable wine that tastes not dissimilar to other international wines, and new regions that manage to make wines that are distinct, and truly new, and reflect their terroir.

    Many (hot) countries have been able to do the former with some judicious coaxing by international winemakers. China to great success. But the really novel innovations have come from cooler places - either because they’re high latitude, or high altitude.

    Marlborough and North Otago, the higher bits of Mendoza, Southern Chile, British Columbia and Oregon, Ontario, Southern England and Wales, Tasmania, all regions that have brought something new and exciting to wine in the last few decades. I could well imagine Ethiopia having some interesting terroir given its climate. Bolivia should do too. But both Chile and Argentina are only just scratching the surface of their cooler climates further into Patagonia.

    I’ve had Bolivian wine - in Bolivia. And yes it was surprisingly good - like Ethiopia

    Japan stretches from virtual tundra to subtropics, with all kind of altitudes. Why aren’t they making great wine? They must have some suitable spots
    There are some. I follow one on Insta. Near Sapporo I think. Very stylish looking, rather like their whiskies.
    Ah. Then that proves the rule. Almost every country now makes wine
    So, quiz time: what country would be the most theoretically promising but is not currently a producer? Actually 2 countries.
    Iran?
    An Iranian writes:

    Iram indeed is gone with all its Rose,
    And Jamshyd's Sev'n-ring'd Cup where no one knows;
    But still the Vine her ancient Ruby yields,
    And still a Garden by the Water blows.

    And David's Lips are lock't; but in divine
    High piping Pelevi, with "Wine! Wine! Wine!
    Red Wine!"—the Nightingale cries to the Rose
    That yellow Cheek of hers to'incarnadine.

    and of course:

    I wonder what the vintners buy
    One half so precious as the stuff they sell.
    Where does that come from?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,273
    ydoethur said:

    Just checked, it is coming up to exactly 12 years since OGH asked me to edit PB whilst he went on his holidays.

    Where does the time go?

    The worry is, every time you've been acting editor something unimaginably awful happens.

    Should we prepare for World War III now you're boss?
    Technically it is when OGH goes on holiday.

    Most memorably one holiday in a 48 hour period which saw

    1) Boris Johnson resign as an MP in advance of the Privileges Committee report

    2) Nadine Dorries and Nigel Adams resign as MPs because they weren't ennobled

    3) Donald Trump was charged at a federal level for egregious national security violations

    and the absolutely mind blowing

    4) Nicola Sturgeon getting arrested.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,554

    🚨Our new voting intention just shared with @JPonpolitics @TimesRadio sees the Conservatives hit a new low.

    🌳 Conservative 25% (-2)
    🌹Labour 43% (+1)
    🔶Lib Dems 11% (+1)
    🟣Reform 11% (+1)
    💚Green 5% (-1)

    Lab lead 18, highest under our current methodology
    N=2027, 19-20/3


    https://twitter.com/LukeTryl/status/1770888732708610098

    And do the Tories still think another tax cut funded through public spending cuts will seal the deal for the election?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,695
    edited March 21
    On Trump, he and his lawyers and experts have just been ripped several new ones by the New York DA, in her reply to his latest submission:

    - Mr Chump supplies no evidence that he is unable to raise the bond, such as 30 refusal letters from his 30 alleged banks.
    - No, Mr Flump *, it is not unusual or unprecedented - a number of occasions where such sums have been raised before are documented, and examples of how in the past it has been raised in slices from many institutions.
    - The Expert Witnesses Mr Gump relies on have previously been found by the Court to be unreliable.
    - Mr Crump's submissions are procedurally irregular, and he is trying to introduce new evidence at this stage, which is inadmissible.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJ9rNezGH6I

    * The theme and background music from The Flumps is genius. I'm sure this is where someone first said "D'Oh" (apart from Walter Gabriel in The Archers, iirc).



    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Wh64XSkwwM
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,048
    IanB2 said:

    Wales 4 Finland 1

    Oh no it isn't! (One of the Welsh players was offside)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,332
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    Well this is both sad and touching. Thank-you, Our Most Genial of Hosts, I hope your health somehow allows you to return, occasionally

    It’s been a privilege to comment on this site these past 15, sorry 9, sorry 4, sorry 2 and a half, sorry 2 years. It really is like a pub except the locals wear terrifying masks and Hitler occasionally plays the piano

    Its also kept me sane and prevented me dying of loneliness on long foreign trips - such as this one right now

    Cheers to all of us, mods and commenters, anarchists and atheists, kippers and Communists, lurkers, lefties, LadyGs and lunatics, from the hot and cloudy jungles of Colombia






    They couldn’t come up with anything better than a wine so popular it’s in every Tesco in Britain? Is there any Colombian wine?
    No

    At least I haven’t found any

    I am extremely grateful for the existence of Chilean and Argentine wine - in Colombia. Otherwise it would be Californian or European and twice as pricey
    It exists! According to Google anyway:

    https://www.madalyneloree.com/post/explore-colombian-wine-country
    I may have spoken too soon:

    “INSIDER TIP: we found the wine in La Union to be quite sweet or dulce. They explained during the tour that while they do make drier wines (seco) the majority of their customer base in Colombia (mostly Colombians) instead like the sweet wines. In fact, we read that the majority of wine from Colombia is on the sweeter side (due to the elevation and climate). If you are like us and prefer drier wines, still definitely try the sweet wine - it is quite refreshing and delicious. “
    Almost every country I visit these days produces some kind of wine

    I’ve had Thai wine (not great). I’ve had Ethiopian wine (not bad at all). I’ve had Indian wine (meh but improving). I’ve had Egyptian wine (tolerable)

    It’s actually rare to find a country that doesn’t make wine

    Eg Denmark makes wine. Yes, Denmark

    https://www.visitdenmark.com/denmark/things-do/danish-food/vineyards

    Greenland. Iceland. Parts of west and central Africa - no wine
    As wine has become a mass market beverage it’s inevitable that it’s become much more widely produced, although it’s not yet as globalisable as beer.

    The distinction I’d make is between new wine regions that are able to reproduce, with effort, a palatable wine that tastes not dissimilar to other international wines, and new regions that manage to make wines that are distinct, and truly new, and reflect their terroir.

    Many (hot) countries have been able to do the former with some judicious coaxing by international winemakers. China to great success. But the really novel innovations have come from cooler places - either because they’re high latitude, or high altitude.

    Marlborough and North Otago, the higher bits of Mendoza, Southern Chile, British Columbia and Oregon, Ontario, Southern England and Wales, Tasmania, all regions that have brought something new and exciting to wine in the last few decades. I could well imagine Ethiopia having some interesting terroir given its climate. Bolivia should do too. But both Chile and Argentina are only just scratching the surface of their cooler climates further into Patagonia.

    I’ve had Bolivian wine - in Bolivia. And yes it was surprisingly good - like Ethiopia

    Japan stretches from virtual tundra to subtropics, with all kind of altitudes. Why aren’t they making great wine? They must have some suitable spots
    There are some. I follow one on Insta. Near Sapporo I think. Very stylish looking, rather like their whiskies.
    Ah. Then that proves the rule. Almost every country now makes wine
    So, quiz time: what country would be the most theoretically promising but is not currently a producer? Actually 2 countries.
    Iran and Algeria?
    Algeria does produce wine, I had some in Algiers. It was ok - French style rose/gris.
    Ah!

    Libya might also make good wine if it was allowed

    It was known for wine in the Roman era

    So was Yorkshire
    As were the northern (ie sunlit) slopes of the Tyne Valley.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,690

    It's lovely to see quite a few lurkers signing up just to thanks Mike and send him best wishes.

    My plea to them is: now you've signed up, why not carry on and continue to join in? The more voices the better!

    I thought the same. It is a really nice touch that this thread is what made them make their first post. Well done. Where I have seen them I have made a point of liking their posts.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,175
    Many ancient PB threads (if anyone's feeling nostalgic) can be accessed via the Wayback Machine on the Internet Archive, though its search and indexing is somewhat haphazard. For example, here are some threads from 2005:

    https://web.archive.org/web/20060107142811/http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2005/06/

    The comments are still there, too, from stalwarts such as Roger, Andrea, Nick Palmer and Andy Cooke, among others.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,749

    Thanks to OGH.

    Been here since just before GE2005.

    Most impressive prediction? RCS suggesting an 80 seat Conservative majority for GE2019. I only wish he had been wrong by 85 seats No, no, not a Tory majority of 165.

    I still remember @Leon responding that being in California had turned my brain to mush 😂
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,568
    carnforth said:

    kle4 said:

    Taz said:

    I wonder, in the 20 years, who the most banned and returned poster is.

    Leon
    Horse
    Ishmael

    Any other contenders ?

    I assumed people's handles indicated the number of times they've been banned, and therefore tlg86 is surely up there.
    Tlg86 and rcs1000 are both plausible crsids:

    https://help.uis.cam.ac.uk/service/accounts-passwords/your-crsid
    mwa12
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,635
    BREAKING: Trump’s property holdings

    NY AG moves on Trump’s Seven Springs property in Westchester County north of NYC, to start satisfying the $464 million judgment against the Trumps

    Trump claimed the property was worth $291 million — when it’s actually worth $25-50 million max
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,563

    🚨Our new voting intention just shared with @JPonpolitics @TimesRadio sees the Conservatives hit a new low.

    🌳 Conservative 25% (-2)
    🌹Labour 43% (+1)
    🔶Lib Dems 11% (+1)
    🟣Reform 11% (+1)
    💚Green 5% (-1)

    Lab lead 18, highest under our current methodology
    N=2027, 19-20/3


    https://twitter.com/LukeTryl/status/1770888732708610098

    Broken, sleazy Tories and Greens on the slide!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,127
    rcs1000 said:

    Thanks to OGH.

    Been here since just before GE2005.

    Most impressive prediction? RCS suggesting an 80 seat Conservative majority for GE2019. I only wish he had been wrong by 85 seats No, no, not a Tory majority of 165.

    I still remember @Leon responding that being in California had turned my brain to mush 😂
    Was @Leon even crafted from flint way back in 2019?
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,048
    CatMan said:

    IanB2 said:

    Wales 4 Finland 1

    Oh no it isn't! (One of the Welsh players was offside)
    OK now it is
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,049

    ydoethur said:

    Just checked, it is coming up to exactly 12 years since OGH asked me to edit PB whilst he went on his holidays.

    Where does the time go?

    The worry is, every time you've been acting editor something unimaginably awful happens.

    Should we prepare for World War III now you're boss?
    Technically it is when OGH goes on holiday.

    Most memorably one holiday in a 48 hour period which saw

    1) Boris Johnson resign as an MP in advance of the Privileges Committee report

    2) Nadine Dorries and Nigel Adams resign as MPs because they weren't ennobled

    3) Donald Trump was charged at a federal level for egregious national security violations

    and the absolutely mind blowing

    4) Nicola Sturgeon getting arrested.

    None of that sounds too awful, when you put it like that.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,568

    viewcode said:

    Reflecting back over the years, RIP to those former posters who were a significant part of the site, but, sadly, are not with us to mark the 20 year milestone.

    I remember when you were Yanis Varoufakis. Anyhoo...

    Left whilst still alive

    @RodCrosby (Holocaust remarks)
    @isam (argued with hosts, since returned)
    @antifrank aka @AlistairMeeks (argued with others, now blog author)
    @Charles (argued with others),
    @TissuePrice (works in a big shed somewhere)
    @SeanT (left, never to return)
    @IshmaelZ (argued with others)
    @MrEd (argued with hosts, thought to have returned)
    @CorrectHorseBattery (argued with others, thought to have returned)

    Left on death

    @SBS (died 2009)
    @PLATO (died 2017estimated)
    @MARKSENIOR (died 2017)
    @CALUM (died 2019)
    @NICHOMAR (died 2021)

    There have been others which I can't recall, and I know that at least one other has died, so if anybody can add more names I would be grateful.
    I would add Socrates to that first list. Really liked my discussions with him back in the day. Much missed. Also of course we cannot miss Tim (the original) off that list, nor the American Tims.
    I'm glad someone has remembered Tim.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,127
    rcs1000 said:

    BREAKING: Trump’s property holdings

    NY AG moves on Trump’s Seven Springs property in Westchester County north of NYC, to start satisfying the $464 million judgment against the Trumps

    Trump claimed the property was worth $291 million — when it’s actually worth $25-50 million max

    If there is debt secured on that property, then things could go very wrong, very fast for DJT.
    Dialling Deutsche Bank as we speak.
  • oniscoidoniscoid Posts: 11
    thanks for all the time and effort you've put in over the years -- much appreciated!
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,858
    Not posting much at the moment due to having a fair bit of work on, just wanted to to offer OGH all the best and a heartfelt thanks - and say happy birthday PB.

    According to Vanilla I've been posting since 2016. Eek. Time really does fly away, that feels like yesterday and also a lifetime ago in many ways. It's true, the older you get, the faster time seems to go...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,273

    Just checked, it is coming up to exactly 12 years since OGH asked me to edit PB whilst he went on his holidays.

    Where does the time go?

    Sterling service TSE
    It's always been fun to do.

    Hopefully I'll be able to handle two massive elections at the same time this year.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,273
    rcs1000 said:

    BREAKING: Trump’s property holdings

    NY AG moves on Trump’s Seven Springs property in Westchester County north of NYC, to start satisfying the $464 million judgment against the Trumps

    Trump claimed the property was worth $291 million — when it’s actually worth $25-50 million max

    If there is debt secured on that property, then things could go very wrong, very fast for DJT.
    Mutters something about stepmoms.
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 225
    rcs1000 said:

    BREAKING: Trump’s property holdings

    NY AG moves on Trump’s Seven Springs property in Westchester County north of NYC, to start satisfying the $464 million judgment against the Trumps

    Trump claimed the property was worth $291 million — when it’s actually worth $25-50 million max

    If there is debt secured on that property, then things could go very wrong, very fast for DJT.
    I'm obviously missing something here.... If I want to borrow money using my house as security, shouldn't the lender do a bit of Due Diligence or get a valuation or something first, before handing over the money? If Trump says his gaff is worth $291 million and somebody believed him, then good luck to him.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,127
    mwadams said:

    viewcode said:

    Reflecting back over the years, RIP to those former posters who were a significant part of the site, but, sadly, are not with us to mark the 20 year milestone.

    I remember when you were Yanis Varoufakis. Anyhoo...

    Left whilst still alive

    @RodCrosby (Holocaust remarks)
    @isam (argued with hosts, since returned)
    @antifrank aka @AlistairMeeks (argued with others, now blog author)
    @Charles (argued with others),
    @TissuePrice (works in a big shed somewhere)
    @SeanT (left, never to return)
    @IshmaelZ (argued with others)
    @MrEd (argued with hosts, thought to have returned)
    @CorrectHorseBattery (argued with others, thought to have returned)

    Left on death

    @SBS (died 2009)
    @PLATO (died 2017estimated)
    @MARKSENIOR (died 2017)
    @CALUM (died 2019)
    @NICHOMAR (died 2021)

    There have been others which I can't recall, and I know that at least one other has died, so if anybody can add more names I would be grateful.
    I would add Socrates to that first list. Really liked my discussions with him back in the day. Much missed. Also of course we cannot miss Tim (the original) off that list, nor the American Tims.
    I'm glad someone has remembered Tim.
    Surbiton was a good poster and @Alistair 's vote count spreadsheet kept me sane during Presidential Election 2020.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,350
    geoffw said:

    algarkirk said:

    geoffw said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    Well this is both sad and touching. Thank-you, Our Most Genial of Hosts, I hope your health somehow allows you to return, occasionally

    It’s been a privilege to comment on this site these past 15, sorry 9, sorry 4, sorry 2 and a half, sorry 2 years. It really is like a pub except the locals wear terrifying masks and Hitler occasionally plays the piano

    Its also kept me sane and prevented me dying of loneliness on long foreign trips - such as this one right now

    Cheers to all of us, mods and commenters, anarchists and atheists, kippers and Communists, lurkers, lefties, LadyGs and lunatics, from the hot and cloudy jungles of Colombia






    They couldn’t come up with anything better than a wine so popular it’s in every Tesco in Britain? Is there any Colombian wine?
    No

    At least I haven’t found any

    I am extremely grateful for the existence of Chilean and Argentine wine - in Colombia. Otherwise it would be Californian or European and twice as pricey
    It exists! According to Google anyway:

    https://www.madalyneloree.com/post/explore-colombian-wine-country
    I may have spoken too soon:

    “INSIDER TIP: we found the wine in La Union to be quite sweet or dulce. They explained during the tour that while they do make drier wines (seco) the majority of their customer base in Colombia (mostly Colombians) instead like the sweet wines. In fact, we read that the majority of wine from Colombia is on the sweeter side (due to the elevation and climate). If you are like us and prefer drier wines, still definitely try the sweet wine - it is quite refreshing and delicious. “
    Almost every country I visit these days produces some kind of wine

    I’ve had Thai wine (not great). I’ve had Ethiopian wine (not bad at all). I’ve had Indian wine (meh but improving). I’ve had Egyptian wine (tolerable)

    It’s actually rare to find a country that doesn’t make wine

    Eg Denmark makes wine. Yes, Denmark

    https://www.visitdenmark.com/denmark/things-do/danish-food/vineyards

    Greenland. Iceland. Parts of west and central Africa - no wine
    As wine has become a mass market beverage it’s inevitable that it’s become much more widely produced, although it’s not yet as globalisable as beer.

    The distinction I’d make is between new wine regions that are able to reproduce, with effort, a palatable wine that tastes not dissimilar to other international wines, and new regions that manage to make wines that are distinct, and truly new, and reflect their terroir.

    Many (hot) countries have been able to do the former with some judicious coaxing by international winemakers. China to great success. But the really novel innovations have come from cooler places - either because they’re high latitude, or high altitude.

    Marlborough and North Otago, the higher bits of Mendoza, Southern Chile, British Columbia and Oregon, Ontario, Southern England and Wales, Tasmania, all regions that have brought something new and exciting to wine in the last few decades. I could well imagine Ethiopia having some interesting terroir given its climate. Bolivia should do too. But both Chile and Argentina are only just scratching the surface of their cooler climates further into Patagonia.

    I’ve had Bolivian wine - in Bolivia. And yes it was surprisingly good - like Ethiopia

    Japan stretches from virtual tundra to subtropics, with all kind of altitudes. Why aren’t they making great wine? They must have some suitable spots
    There are some. I follow one on Insta. Near Sapporo I think. Very stylish looking, rather like their whiskies.
    Ah. Then that proves the rule. Almost every country now makes wine
    So, quiz time: what country would be the most theoretically promising but is not currently a producer? Actually 2 countries.
    Iran?
    An Iranian writes:

    Iram indeed is gone with all its Rose,
    And Jamshyd's Sev'n-ring'd Cup where no one knows;
    But still the Vine her ancient Ruby yields,
    And still a Garden by the Water blows.

    And David's Lips are lock't; but in divine
    High piping Pelevi, with "Wine! Wine! Wine!
    Red Wine!"—the Nightingale cries to the Rose
    That yellow Cheek of hers to'incarnadine.

    and of course:

    I wonder what the vintners buy
    One half so precious as the stuff they sell.
    Where does that come from?

    The Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam
    https://www.therubaiyatofomarkhayyam.com/rubaiyat-full-text/
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,554
    edited March 21
    rcs1000 said:

    BREAKING: Trump’s property holdings

    NY AG moves on Trump’s Seven Springs property in Westchester County north of NYC, to start satisfying the $464 million judgment against the Trumps

    Trump claimed the property was worth $291 million — when it’s actually worth $25-50 million max

    If there is debt secured on that property, then things could go very wrong, very fast for DJT.
    What about the potential $3.4bn of Trump Media he owns, is this going to rescue him?:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/21/donald-trump-wealth-to-rise-by-more-than-3bn-if-shareholders-back-plan
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,635
    Letitia James is going to grab Donald Trump by the pussy.

    Oops, I meant property
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,749

    Many ancient PB threads (if anyone's feeling nostalgic) can be accessed via the Wayback Machine on the Internet Archive, though its search and indexing is somewhat haphazard. For example, here are some threads from 2005:

    https://web.archive.org/web/20060107142811/http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2005/06/

    The comments are still there, too, from stalwarts such as Roger, Andrea, Nick Palmer and Andy Cooke, among others.

    Wow, what a great find.

    I spotted SeanF, JackW and a few others who are still here today.

    I also spotted Squadron Leader Rik Willis!
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,660
    algarkirk said:

    geoffw said:

    algarkirk said:

    geoffw said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    Well this is both sad and touching. Thank-you, Our Most Genial of Hosts, I hope your health somehow allows you to return, occasionally

    It’s been a privilege to comment on this site these past 15, sorry 9, sorry 4, sorry 2 and a half, sorry 2 years. It really is like a pub except the locals wear terrifying masks and Hitler occasionally plays the piano

    Its also kept me sane and prevented me dying of loneliness on long foreign trips - such as this one right now

    Cheers to all of us, mods and commenters, anarchists and atheists, kippers and Communists, lurkers, lefties, LadyGs and lunatics, from the hot and cloudy jungles of Colombia






    They couldn’t come up with anything better than a wine so popular it’s in every Tesco in Britain? Is there any Colombian wine?
    No

    At least I haven’t found any

    I am extremely grateful for the existence of Chilean and Argentine wine - in Colombia. Otherwise it would be Californian or European and twice as pricey
    It exists! According to Google anyway:

    https://www.madalyneloree.com/post/explore-colombian-wine-country
    I may have spoken too soon:

    “INSIDER TIP: we found the wine in La Union to be quite sweet or dulce. They explained during the tour that while they do make drier wines (seco) the majority of their customer base in Colombia (mostly Colombians) instead like the sweet wines. In fact, we read that the majority of wine from Colombia is on the sweeter side (due to the elevation and climate). If you are like us and prefer drier wines, still definitely try the sweet wine - it is quite refreshing and delicious. “
    Almost every country I visit these days produces some kind of wine

    I’ve had Thai wine (not great). I’ve had Ethiopian wine (not bad at all). I’ve had Indian wine (meh but improving). I’ve had Egyptian wine (tolerable)

    It’s actually rare to find a country that doesn’t make wine

    Eg Denmark makes wine. Yes, Denmark

    https://www.visitdenmark.com/denmark/things-do/danish-food/vineyards

    Greenland. Iceland. Parts of west and central Africa - no wine
    As wine has become a mass market beverage it’s inevitable that it’s become much more widely produced, although it’s not yet as globalisable as beer.

    The distinction I’d make is between new wine regions that are able to reproduce, with effort, a palatable wine that tastes not dissimilar to other international wines, and new regions that manage to make wines that are distinct, and truly new, and reflect their terroir.

    Many (hot) countries have been able to do the former with some judicious coaxing by international winemakers. China to great success. But the really novel innovations have come from cooler places - either because they’re high latitude, or high altitude.

    Marlborough and North Otago, the higher bits of Mendoza, Southern Chile, British Columbia and Oregon, Ontario, Southern England and Wales, Tasmania, all regions that have brought something new and exciting to wine in the last few decades. I could well imagine Ethiopia having some interesting terroir given its climate. Bolivia should do too. But both Chile and Argentina are only just scratching the surface of their cooler climates further into Patagonia.

    I’ve had Bolivian wine - in Bolivia. And yes it was surprisingly good - like Ethiopia

    Japan stretches from virtual tundra to subtropics, with all kind of altitudes. Why aren’t they making great wine? They must have some suitable spots
    There are some. I follow one on Insta. Near Sapporo I think. Very stylish looking, rather like their whiskies.
    Ah. Then that proves the rule. Almost every country now makes wine
    So, quiz time: what country would be the most theoretically promising but is not currently a producer? Actually 2 countries.
    Iran?
    An Iranian writes:

    Iram indeed is gone with all its Rose,
    And Jamshyd's Sev'n-ring'd Cup where no one knows;
    But still the Vine her ancient Ruby yields,
    And still a Garden by the Water blows.

    And David's Lips are lock't; but in divine
    High piping Pelevi, with "Wine! Wine! Wine!
    Red Wine!"—the Nightingale cries to the Rose
    That yellow Cheek of hers to'incarnadine.

    and of course:

    I wonder what the vintners buy
    One half so precious as the stuff they sell.
    Where does that come from?

    The Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam
    https://www.therubaiyatofomarkhayyam.com/rubaiyat-full-text/
    Thanks, I guessed it might

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,127

    rcs1000 said:

    BREAKING: Trump’s property holdings

    NY AG moves on Trump’s Seven Springs property in Westchester County north of NYC, to start satisfying the $464 million judgment against the Trumps

    Trump claimed the property was worth $291 million — when it’s actually worth $25-50 million max

    If there is debt secured on that property, then things could go very wrong, very fast for DJT.
    Mutters something about stepmoms.
    On a related theme, I seem to remember Trump muttering something about his daughter.

    Pass the mind bleach.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,748
    Cymru Pedwar: Ffindir Un. Sgôr Terfynol.
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 225
    rcs1000 said:

    Many ancient PB threads (if anyone's feeling nostalgic) can be accessed via the Wayback Machine on the Internet Archive, though its search and indexing is somewhat haphazard. For example, here are some threads from 2005:

    https://web.archive.org/web/20060107142811/http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2005/06/

    The comments are still there, too, from stalwarts such as Roger, Andrea, Nick Palmer and Andy Cooke, among others.

    Wow, what a great find.

    I spotted SeanF, JackW and a few others who are still here today.

    I also spotted Squadron Leader Rik Willis!
    Names to be reckoned with - is JackW really still around? Andrea (an Italian man) had an encyclopaedic knowledge of the internal machinations of the Labour Party. He could give chapter and verse as soon as the rumour first appeared.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,867
    kjh said:

    It's lovely to see quite a few lurkers signing up just to thanks Mike and send him best wishes.

    My plea to them is: now you've signed up, why not carry on and continue to join in? The more voices the better!

    I thought the same. It is a really nice touch that this thread is what made them make their first post. Well done. Where I have seen them I have made a point of liking their posts.
    Agreed. Also, @leon is looking for some new playmates.
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited March 21
    rcs1000 said:

    Donkeys said:

    viewcode said:

    Donkeys said:

    Leon said:

    That last chat was a bit depressing so here is something genuinely and wonderfully uplifting

    Elon Musk’s Neuralink gives a quadriplegic guy the chance to interact with a computer, and thus the world: a form of telekinesis. The joy on the guy’s face is 🥂👍🍷👏👏👏👏👏

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1770565942168420750?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Who knows. Maybe the future will be wondrous

    He's not developing this technology to help people. That's PR.

    Also some heavy-duty game is being played with the use of the name "Telepathy".

    Musk sees it as a step onwards from this preliminary stage we're in now in which most people's almost-permanent interface between their fleshspace self and planet digital is their smartphone. He has said as much.

    Personally I think Muskologists pay too little attention to Paypal.

    I imagine he is dashing to keep up with China, with "X" as the "superapp" hanger on to the tail of WeChat. Chinese people in China are only allowed WeChat accounts if they link them to their bank accounts. Most people in China haven't bought anything either with cash or a bank card for years.

    It's good to see you looking at implant tech. This is far more important than AI.
    • Cybertruck: Armoured Personnel Vehicle
    • Raptor-9: ICBM
    • Starship: Orbital Bombardment Vehicle (Earth)
    • Starship HLS: Troop transport and spaceborne assault vehicle
    • Boring flamethrowers: personal defence weapon
    • Starlink: information control satellites
    • Neuralink: enslavement and pacification device
    • Optimus: drone troops and terminators

    The guy is building Hydra in plain sight... :)
    rcs1000 said:

    Donkeys said:

    ...

    It's good to see you looking at implant tech. This is far more important than AI.

    Yep: China is genuinely cashless. The only people that ever use ATMs are tourists.

    But on the other hand, no, implant technology is not more important than AI.
    When parts of the British intelligentsia wake up and realise that mass head chipping isn't a good thing, and that the Luddites were right all along, it will be far too late. They'll have bought into it because of convenient consumption or public health or something.

    The good news is that what's true in Islington may not be true in Urumqi or Kashgar.
    Perhaps it won't be true in Hong Kong either.
    Oh, that's not the issue with implants.

    I'd be happy to be chipped tomorrow, were it not for the enormous evidence of the body violently rejecting foreign objects. (Watch the documentary about the Italian surgeon and the trachea implants of you want to be truly horrified.)
    Hundreds of millions of dogs are chipped already, as are many birds etc. So it's not true for all foreign objects in the body, as many can attest. I know it's said about the brain and about active RFID chips generally. But I doubt it's an intractable problem. Musk and his backers would be pissing their money up the wall.

    "I'd be happy to be chipped tomorrow" <- See what I mean. Don't you care about individual freedom?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,695
    ohnotnow said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cicero said:

    rcs1000 said:

    carnforth said:

    kle4 said:

    Taz said:

    I wonder, in the 20 years, who the most banned and returned poster is.

    Leon
    Horse
    Ishmael

    Any other contenders ?

    I assumed people's handles indicated the number of times they've been banned, and therefore tlg86 is surely up there.
    Tlg86 and rcs1000 are both plausible crsids:

    https://help.uis.cam.ac.uk/service/accounts-passwords/your-crsid
    That is correct: back in 1992, I got my first access to the Internet as rcs1000@phx.cam.ac.uk

    From then on, rcs1000 has been my Internet id.
    I can't remember my janet login from Edinburgh University library, but that would be 1990.
    Mine was hcc1.

    So I must have been top dog.

    (Not really. Aber had a system - last number of the year for undergrads, last two numbers for postgrads, initials only for staff. As I was all of them in turn, I therefore added and subtracted numbers like a mathematician on crack.)
    I still - I am somewhat ashamed to say - remember people by their username rather than actual name. 'Oh look - it's rdy2k!'.
    I had one back in the late 1980s, but I'm a pseudonym so I'm not telling.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,309

    rcs1000 said:

    Many ancient PB threads (if anyone's feeling nostalgic) can be accessed via the Wayback Machine on the Internet Archive, though its search and indexing is somewhat haphazard. For example, here are some threads from 2005:

    https://web.archive.org/web/20060107142811/http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2005/06/

    The comments are still there, too, from stalwarts such as Roger, Andrea, Nick Palmer and Andy Cooke, among others.

    Wow, what a great find.

    I spotted SeanF, JackW and a few others who are still here today.

    I also spotted Squadron Leader Rik Willis!
    Names to be reckoned with - is JackW really still around? Andrea (an Italian man) had an encyclopaedic knowledge of the internal machinations of the Labour Party. He could give chapter and verse as soon as the rumour first appeared.
    I think JackW posted only the other day.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,175
    geoffw said:

    algarkirk said:

    geoffw said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    Well this is both sad and touching. Thank-you, Our Most Genial of Hosts, I hope your health somehow allows you to return, occasionally

    It’s been a privilege to comment on this site these past 15, sorry 9, sorry 4, sorry 2 and a half, sorry 2 years. It really is like a pub except the locals wear terrifying masks and Hitler occasionally plays the piano

    Its also kept me sane and prevented me dying of loneliness on long foreign trips - such as this one right now

    Cheers to all of us, mods and commenters, anarchists and atheists, kippers and Communists, lurkers, lefties, LadyGs and lunatics, from the hot and cloudy jungles of Colombia






    They couldn’t come up with anything better than a wine so popular it’s in every Tesco in Britain? Is there any Colombian wine?
    No

    At least I haven’t found any

    I am extremely grateful for the existence of Chilean and Argentine wine - in Colombia. Otherwise it would be Californian or European and twice as pricey
    It exists! According to Google anyway:

    https://www.madalyneloree.com/post/explore-colombian-wine-country
    I may have spoken too soon:

    “INSIDER TIP: we found the wine in La Union to be quite sweet or dulce. They explained during the tour that while they do make drier wines (seco) the majority of their customer base in Colombia (mostly Colombians) instead like the sweet wines. In fact, we read that the majority of wine from Colombia is on the sweeter side (due to the elevation and climate). If you are like us and prefer drier wines, still definitely try the sweet wine - it is quite refreshing and delicious. “
    Almost every country I visit these days produces some kind of wine

    I’ve had Thai wine (not great). I’ve had Ethiopian wine (not bad at all). I’ve had Indian wine (meh but improving). I’ve had Egyptian wine (tolerable)

    It’s actually rare to find a country that doesn’t make wine

    Eg Denmark makes wine. Yes, Denmark

    https://www.visitdenmark.com/denmark/things-do/danish-food/vineyards

    Greenland. Iceland. Parts of west and central Africa - no wine
    As wine has become a mass market beverage it’s inevitable that it’s become much more widely produced, although it’s not yet as globalisable as beer.

    The distinction I’d make is between new wine regions that are able to reproduce, with effort, a palatable wine that tastes not dissimilar to other international wines, and new regions that manage to make wines that are distinct, and truly new, and reflect their terroir.

    Many (hot) countries have been able to do the former with some judicious coaxing by international winemakers. China to great success. But the really novel innovations have come from cooler places - either because they’re high latitude, or high altitude.

    Marlborough and North Otago, the higher bits of Mendoza, Southern Chile, British Columbia and Oregon, Ontario, Southern England and Wales, Tasmania, all regions that have brought something new and exciting to wine in the last few decades. I could well imagine Ethiopia having some interesting terroir given its climate. Bolivia should do too. But both Chile and Argentina are only just scratching the surface of their cooler climates further into Patagonia.

    I’ve had Bolivian wine - in Bolivia. And yes it was surprisingly good - like Ethiopia

    Japan stretches from virtual tundra to subtropics, with all kind of altitudes. Why aren’t they making great wine? They must have some suitable spots
    There are some. I follow one on Insta. Near Sapporo I think. Very stylish looking, rather like their whiskies.
    Ah. Then that proves the rule. Almost every country now makes wine
    So, quiz time: what country would be the most theoretically promising but is not currently a producer? Actually 2 countries.
    Iran?
    An Iranian writes:

    Iram indeed is gone with all its Rose,
    And Jamshyd's Sev'n-ring'd Cup where no one knows;
    But still the Vine her ancient Ruby yields,
    And still a Garden by the Water blows.

    And David's Lips are lock't; but in divine
    High piping Pelevi, with "Wine! Wine! Wine!
    Red Wine!"—the Nightingale cries to the Rose
    That yellow Cheek of hers to'incarnadine.

    and of course:

    I wonder what the vintners buy
    One half so precious as the stuff they sell.
    Where does that come from?

    Surely not Larkin again.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Happy birthday PB. Thanks to Mike and the team for keeping this site going over the years. You guys are amazing 👏
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,749

    rcs1000 said:

    BREAKING: Trump’s property holdings

    NY AG moves on Trump’s Seven Springs property in Westchester County north of NYC, to start satisfying the $464 million judgment against the Trumps

    Trump claimed the property was worth $291 million — when it’s actually worth $25-50 million max

    If there is debt secured on that property, then things could go very wrong, very fast for DJT.
    I'm obviously missing something here.... If I want to borrow money using my house as security, shouldn't the lender do a bit of Due Diligence or get a valuation or something first, before handing over the money? If Trump says his gaff is worth $291 million and somebody believed him, then good luck to him.
    If the property is seized, then the loan secured on it immediately comes due. If he cannot pay off the loan, then he defaults on the debt, and the cross default clauses will come into play, effectively forcing him to pay off all his debts at once.

    The big question is how much real equity is there is across the entire Trump Organization. It could be billions, or it could be very little indeed.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,749

    rcs1000 said:

    BREAKING: Trump’s property holdings

    NY AG moves on Trump’s Seven Springs property in Westchester County north of NYC, to start satisfying the $464 million judgment against the Trumps

    Trump claimed the property was worth $291 million — when it’s actually worth $25-50 million max

    If there is debt secured on that property, then things could go very wrong, very fast for DJT.
    What about the potential $3.4bn of Trump Media he owns, is this going to rescue him?:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/21/donald-trump-wealth-to-rise-by-more-than-3bn-if-shareholders-back-plan
    We'll see, but do remember that is very much paper wealth. How realizable it is an entirely different matter.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,309

    Letitia James is going to grab Donald Trump by the pussy.

    Oops, I meant property

    Not so fast Tonto...


    "Shares of former President Donald J. Trump’s social mediacompany could start trading on the stock market as early as Monday, immediately raising his net worth by around $3 billion — wealth that Mr. Trump may be able to tap to pay his mounting legal bills as he seeks a second presidential term."

    NY Times
  • MrBristolMrBristol Posts: 28
    Thank you Mike for the all the hours of interesting, entertaining, enlightening discourse. All the best to you for the future.

    Oh and happy birthday PB.... now.... slowly backing away into the shadows to reading only mode.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,695
    edited March 21
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BREAKING: Trump’s property holdings

    NY AG moves on Trump’s Seven Springs property in Westchester County north of NYC, to start satisfying the $464 million judgment against the Trumps

    Trump claimed the property was worth $291 million — when it’s actually worth $25-50 million max

    If there is debt secured on that property, then things could go very wrong, very fast for DJT.
    What about the potential $3.4bn of Trump Media he owns, is this going to rescue him?:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/21/donald-trump-wealth-to-rise-by-more-than-3bn-if-shareholders-back-plan
    We'll see, but do remember that is very much paper wealth. How realizable it is an entirely different matter.
    These have 6 month delays on the Principal (not the correct term but here it is Trump) selling their paper shares, unless a shareholder vote suspends it, to prevent the person doing what Trump probably wants to do.

    In effect the whole thing is bilking investors for their money - presumably some of the (currently) wealthier MAGA marks.

    Trump has still been asserting to other courts that he has X billions.

    We shall see, as you say.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,554
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BREAKING: Trump’s property holdings

    NY AG moves on Trump’s Seven Springs property in Westchester County north of NYC, to start satisfying the $464 million judgment against the Trumps

    Trump claimed the property was worth $291 million — when it’s actually worth $25-50 million max

    If there is debt secured on that property, then things could go very wrong, very fast for DJT.
    What about the potential $3.4bn of Trump Media he owns, is this going to rescue him?:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/21/donald-trump-wealth-to-rise-by-more-than-3bn-if-shareholders-back-plan
    We'll see, but do remember that is very much paper wealth. How realizable it is an entirely different matter.
    In any event, according to the Graun it won't be realisable by Trump for 6 months:

    If the merger goes ahead and Trump Media goes public as soon as next week, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee would not be able to cash in any of his potential paper wealth immediately. The merger document contains a provision that blocks major shareholders from selling stock for six months.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,635
    Update on NY AG property seizure

    To be clear: This would allow New York AG James to move to take possession of Trump National Golf Course in Briarcliff Manor and Seven Springs if Trump fails to secure a bond
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,074
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BREAKING: Trump’s property holdings

    NY AG moves on Trump’s Seven Springs property in Westchester County north of NYC, to start satisfying the $464 million judgment against the Trumps

    Trump claimed the property was worth $291 million — when it’s actually worth $25-50 million max

    If there is debt secured on that property, then things could go very wrong, very fast for DJT.
    What about the potential $3.4bn of Trump Media he owns, is this going to rescue him?:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/21/donald-trump-wealth-to-rise-by-more-than-3bn-if-shareholders-back-plan
    We'll see, but do remember that is very much paper wealth. How realizable it is an entirely different matter.
    SPACs have been falling 90% on approval. But Trump is different maybe

  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,695

    rcs1000 said:

    BREAKING: Trump’s property holdings

    NY AG moves on Trump’s Seven Springs property in Westchester County north of NYC, to start satisfying the $464 million judgment against the Trumps

    Trump claimed the property was worth $291 million — when it’s actually worth $25-50 million max

    If there is debt secured on that property, then things could go very wrong, very fast for DJT.
    I'm obviously missing something here.... If I want to borrow money using my house as security, shouldn't the lender do a bit of Due Diligence or get a valuation or something first, before handing over the money? If Trump says his gaff is worth $291 million and somebody believed him, then good luck to him.
    Yes, but they probably didn't or decided it was a one way bet, or accepted Trump's assertion but decided that his "useless" clause would fall.

    His useless clause is his financial version of the 'even if we are lying it is still not our responsbility' exclusion clause we get on all Estate Agent's Particulars. But in rather more serious situations.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,309

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BREAKING: Trump’s property holdings

    NY AG moves on Trump’s Seven Springs property in Westchester County north of NYC, to start satisfying the $464 million judgment against the Trumps

    Trump claimed the property was worth $291 million — when it’s actually worth $25-50 million max

    If there is debt secured on that property, then things could go very wrong, very fast for DJT.
    What about the potential $3.4bn of Trump Media he owns, is this going to rescue him?:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/21/donald-trump-wealth-to-rise-by-more-than-3bn-if-shareholders-back-plan
    We'll see, but do remember that is very much paper wealth. How realizable it is an entirely different matter.
    In any event, according to the Graun it won't be realisable by Trump for 6 months:

    If the merger goes ahead and Trump Media goes public as soon as next week, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee would not be able to cash in any of his potential paper wealth immediately. The merger document contains a provision that blocks major shareholders from selling stock for six months.
    NY Times says there are ways for him to get around this as he has such a large stockholding and is the key person.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,309
    MrBristol said:

    Thank you Mike for the all the hours of interesting, entertaining, enlightening discourse. All the best to you for the future.

    Oh and happy birthday PB.... now.... slowly backing away into the shadows to reading only mode.

    Nice logo.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,242
    Happy Birthday PB, and the best for your retirement Mike, health notwithstanding.

    Lurked for a bit but been on here formally since just before GE 15, peak EICIPM which became WNB. Straight into a tussle with Mr Tyndall on climate change.

    Early disappeared poster I remember with a bit of fondness was @Dair, a lot of standard SNP trolling posts, but also a touch of mysticism and a mix of not always expected views. I have to say our SNP posters seem to do more actual discussion and less grit in the oyster stuff in the last 2-3 years, and it is one thing the site is better for now.

    I'm still not a big bettor, but I've always loved the prediction game, I think I charted the likely trajectory of Boris's career pretty well, and I'm broadly happy with my record on by-elections in the last couple of years, after reading Hartlepool totally wrong I've took more care on that, though Rochdale confounded my methods. Bad predictions, a lot of the Brexit stuff I didn't predict.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,783
    @ProjectLincoln

    Make Asset seizure Great Again


  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,749

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BREAKING: Trump’s property holdings

    NY AG moves on Trump’s Seven Springs property in Westchester County north of NYC, to start satisfying the $464 million judgment against the Trumps

    Trump claimed the property was worth $291 million — when it’s actually worth $25-50 million max

    If there is debt secured on that property, then things could go very wrong, very fast for DJT.
    What about the potential $3.4bn of Trump Media he owns, is this going to rescue him?:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/21/donald-trump-wealth-to-rise-by-more-than-3bn-if-shareholders-back-plan
    We'll see, but do remember that is very much paper wealth. How realizable it is an entirely different matter.
    SPACs have been falling 90% on approval. But Trump is different maybe

    The incentive to the promoters is to absolutely maximize the first print.

    For what it's worth, it's hard to believe that a subscale Twitter, dependent on a single (far from young) "Truther" to draw people in, is a particularly viable business. Your 90% drop number is probably absolutely right.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,695

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BREAKING: Trump’s property holdings

    NY AG moves on Trump’s Seven Springs property in Westchester County north of NYC, to start satisfying the $464 million judgment against the Trumps

    Trump claimed the property was worth $291 million — when it’s actually worth $25-50 million max

    If there is debt secured on that property, then things could go very wrong, very fast for DJT.
    What about the potential $3.4bn of Trump Media he owns, is this going to rescue him?:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/21/donald-trump-wealth-to-rise-by-more-than-3bn-if-shareholders-back-plan
    We'll see, but do remember that is very much paper wealth. How realizable it is an entirely different matter.
    In any event, according to the Graun it won't be realisable by Trump for 6 months:

    If the merger goes ahead and Trump Media goes public as soon as next week, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee would not be able to cash in any of his potential paper wealth immediately. The merger document contains a provision that blocks major shareholders from selling stock for six months.
    I'm interested in the figure.

    How does work with the bond which has to be +interest?

    The DA would need to seize enough to cover the larger number which will be payable should he lose at Appeal, not just the actual Judgement.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,046

    Ongoing best wishes to Mike for his health, and thanks to him (and the team) for a great site.

    I've been around since more or less the start but rarely post (though I did once have the honour of writing an article).

    PB is 20, and in the last few months I've called time on my spell as a secondary Head, also after 20 years (and a term). PB always has something interesting to say. It would be invidious to mention any names, so I will say I always enjoyed David Herdson's Saturday column, and (for balance!) Nick Palmer.

    I married a Methodist so have never placed any bet on anything, not even on hot tips from here. Am I alone, or are there other tee-tote-alers here too? (Sorry)

    I've never placed a bet, even after nearly twenty years reading this site, but I do think it's an interesting way to think about politics, and I try to make the effort to look up relevant odds from time to time to illustrate an idea.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,554

    MrBristol said:

    Thank you Mike for the all the hours of interesting, entertaining, enlightening discourse. All the best to you for the future.

    Oh and happy birthday PB.... now.... slowly backing away into the shadows to reading only mode.

    Nice logo.
    Gorgeous!
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,528
    Thank you Mike for providing this site and the resulting content. I have spent many hours here enjoying the generally good natured discussions and stimulating comments. Even with my D,Phil from Fen Poly I always feel one of the minions here. It's good for my soul.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,695
    edited March 21

    MrBristol said:

    Thank you Mike for the all the hours of interesting, entertaining, enlightening discourse. All the best to you for the future.

    Oh and happy birthday PB.... now.... slowly backing away into the shadows to reading only mode.

    Nice logo.
    Isn't that Rishi's long term ski-jump recovery strategy?
    Eddie the Eagle Sunak? Whodathunkit?

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,749

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BREAKING: Trump’s property holdings

    NY AG moves on Trump’s Seven Springs property in Westchester County north of NYC, to start satisfying the $464 million judgment against the Trumps

    Trump claimed the property was worth $291 million — when it’s actually worth $25-50 million max

    If there is debt secured on that property, then things could go very wrong, very fast for DJT.
    What about the potential $3.4bn of Trump Media he owns, is this going to rescue him?:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/21/donald-trump-wealth-to-rise-by-more-than-3bn-if-shareholders-back-plan
    We'll see, but do remember that is very much paper wealth. How realizable it is an entirely different matter.
    In any event, according to the Graun it won't be realisable by Trump for 6 months:

    If the merger goes ahead and Trump Media goes public as soon as next week, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee would not be able to cash in any of his potential paper wealth immediately. The merger document contains a provision that blocks major shareholders from selling stock for six months.
    NY Times says there are ways for him to get around this as he has such a large stockholding and is the key person.
    Some people engage in "cap and collar" strategies which involves selling a call and buying a put to effectively sell shares without appearing to.

    However... While I suspect he might be able to (at great cost) do that for some portion of his holding, I'm not sure anyone would underwrite more than $100m or so.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,554

    Ongoing best wishes to Mike for his health, and thanks to him (and the team) for a great site.

    I've been around since more or less the start but rarely post (though I did once have the honour of writing an article).

    PB is 20, and in the last few months I've called time on my spell as a secondary Head, also after 20 years (and a term). PB always has something interesting to say. It would be invidious to mention any names, so I will say I always enjoyed David Herdson's Saturday column, and (for balance!) Nick Palmer.

    I married a Methodist so have never placed any bet on anything, not even on hot tips from here. Am I alone, or are there other tee-tote-alers here too? (Sorry)

    I've never placed a bet, even after nearly twenty years reading this site, but I do think it's an interesting way to think about politics, and I try to make the effort to look up relevant odds from time to time to illustrate an idea.
    I've never placed a bet either - it's just not something I do. I do enjoy hearing of others making a (small) killing from time to time. If I did bet, I'd no doubt be the one funding those 'killings'.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,495

    Nikki Haley, who's no longer running, reported more cash on hand at the end of February than the RNC.

    President Biden has a major fundraising advantage over Trump, according to the latest FEC filings. In February:

    • Biden's campaign raised $21.3 million. It has $71 million in cash on hand.
    • Trump's campaign raised $10.9 million. It has $33.5 million in cash on hand.
    • The DNC raised $16.6 million. Cash on hand: $26.5 million.
    • The RNC raised $10.7 million. Cash on hand: $11.3 million


    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1770918531846000985

    So how much campaign cash, does Nikki Haley for President campaign still have in its coffers?

    Significant amount of COH, left unspent at end of a competitive - and unsuccessful - campaign, is one of the classic signs in US politics, of less-than-optimal campaign management and/or strategy.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,309
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BREAKING: Trump’s property holdings

    NY AG moves on Trump’s Seven Springs property in Westchester County north of NYC, to start satisfying the $464 million judgment against the Trumps

    Trump claimed the property was worth $291 million — when it’s actually worth $25-50 million max

    If there is debt secured on that property, then things could go very wrong, very fast for DJT.
    What about the potential $3.4bn of Trump Media he owns, is this going to rescue him?:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/21/donald-trump-wealth-to-rise-by-more-than-3bn-if-shareholders-back-plan
    We'll see, but do remember that is very much paper wealth. How realizable it is an entirely different matter.
    In any event, according to the Graun it won't be realisable by Trump for 6 months:

    If the merger goes ahead and Trump Media goes public as soon as next week, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee would not be able to cash in any of his potential paper wealth immediately. The merger document contains a provision that blocks major shareholders from selling stock for six months.
    NY Times says there are ways for him to get around this as he has such a large stockholding and is the key person.
    Some people engage in "cap and collar" strategies which involves selling a call and buying a put to effectively sell shares without appearing to.

    However... While I suspect he might be able to (at great cost) do that for some portion of his holding, I'm not sure anyone would underwrite more than $100m or so.
    Times says he could persuade the board to waive his restriction. The board includes his own son.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,635
    MattW said:

    MrBristol said:

    Thank you Mike for the all the hours of interesting, entertaining, enlightening discourse. All the best to you for the future.

    Oh and happy birthday PB.... now.... slowly backing away into the shadows to reading only mode.

    Nice logo.
    Isn't that Rishi's long term ski-jump recovery strategy?
    Eddie the Eagle Sunak? Whodathunkit?

    Very Bristolian, for a reason which escapes me.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,495
    Whines of the British Empire - MALAYA

    "Damn it, you infernal rascal! - you've made me break my best Penang Lawyer over your impudent head!"
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,309
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BREAKING: Trump’s property holdings

    NY AG moves on Trump’s Seven Springs property in Westchester County north of NYC, to start satisfying the $464 million judgment against the Trumps

    Trump claimed the property was worth $291 million — when it’s actually worth $25-50 million max

    If there is debt secured on that property, then things could go very wrong, very fast for DJT.
    What about the potential $3.4bn of Trump Media he owns, is this going to rescue him?:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/21/donald-trump-wealth-to-rise-by-more-than-3bn-if-shareholders-back-plan
    We'll see, but do remember that is very much paper wealth. How realizable it is an entirely different matter.
    SPACs have been falling 90% on approval. But Trump is different maybe

    The incentive to the promoters is to absolutely maximize the first print.

    For what it's worth, it's hard to believe that a subscale Twitter, dependent on a single (far from young) "Truther" to draw people in, is a particularly viable business. Your 90% drop number is probably absolutely right.
    I thought he was the only person on it to be honest.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,731

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BREAKING: Trump’s property holdings

    NY AG moves on Trump’s Seven Springs property in Westchester County north of NYC, to start satisfying the $464 million judgment against the Trumps

    Trump claimed the property was worth $291 million — when it’s actually worth $25-50 million max

    If there is debt secured on that property, then things could go very wrong, very fast for DJT.
    What about the potential $3.4bn of Trump Media he owns, is this going to rescue him?:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/21/donald-trump-wealth-to-rise-by-more-than-3bn-if-shareholders-back-plan
    We'll see, but do remember that is very much paper wealth. How realizable it is an entirely different matter.
    In any event, according to the Graun it won't be realisable by Trump for 6 months:

    If the merger goes ahead and Trump Media goes public as soon as next week, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee would not be able to cash in any of his potential paper wealth immediately. The merger document contains a provision that blocks major shareholders from selling stock for six months.
    NY Times says there are ways for him to get around this as he has such a large stockholding and is the key person.
    Yes, it does seem like he will be able to get hold of it somehow. Presumably one reason he was so desperate for even a temporary stay.

    I'm expecting the court to give some kind of stay or reduction in bond at the last minute. The AG has provided arguments why that shouldn't happen, but unless he's lying about having the cash and will actually pony up soon it just seems easier from their perspective, if they believe ultimately he does have assets that will be able to be taken even if later down the line, to give him more time to post the full amount. Easier should presumably not be part of their considerations, but people are human.
  • Responding to
    @thesun
    ’s interview this evening, Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho said:

    “Keir Starmer still can’t define what a woman is and he clearly has no regrets for choosing to provide a business service giving legal advice to dangerous terrorists.”

    https://x.com/MrHarryCole/status/1770930142337974512

    ROFL the Tories are done.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,749

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BREAKING: Trump’s property holdings

    NY AG moves on Trump’s Seven Springs property in Westchester County north of NYC, to start satisfying the $464 million judgment against the Trumps

    Trump claimed the property was worth $291 million — when it’s actually worth $25-50 million max

    If there is debt secured on that property, then things could go very wrong, very fast for DJT.
    What about the potential $3.4bn of Trump Media he owns, is this going to rescue him?:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/21/donald-trump-wealth-to-rise-by-more-than-3bn-if-shareholders-back-plan
    We'll see, but do remember that is very much paper wealth. How realizable it is an entirely different matter.
    In any event, according to the Graun it won't be realisable by Trump for 6 months:

    If the merger goes ahead and Trump Media goes public as soon as next week, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee would not be able to cash in any of his potential paper wealth immediately. The merger document contains a provision that blocks major shareholders from selling stock for six months.
    NY Times says there are ways for him to get around this as he has such a large stockholding and is the key person.
    Some people engage in "cap and collar" strategies which involves selling a call and buying a put to effectively sell shares without appearing to.

    However... While I suspect he might be able to (at great cost) do that for some portion of his holding, I'm not sure anyone would underwrite more than $100m or so.
    Times says he could persuade the board to waive his restriction. The board includes his own son.
    Even if they did, how much of a market is there for people wanting to buy DJT's shares from him? Every one he sells will push the price down.
  • Cheers Mike! It's a hell of a place you've built and somewhere I visit everyday...the first place I look for breaking news, but as another old fella once said:
    "You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy. We must be cautious."
    Or maybe he was talking about Westminster?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,262

    Update on NY AG property seizure

    To be clear: This would allow New York AG James to move to take possession of Trump National Golf Course in Briarcliff Manor and Seven Springs if Trump fails to secure a bond

    Just think, if Trump wins, we might have an administration that uses the justice system against its political opponents!
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,848
    happy birthday pb but the site would be better if we kicked out the extremist left wingers like hyufd nods
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,731

    Letitia James is going to grab Donald Trump by the pussy.

    Oops, I meant property

    Not so fast Tonto...


    "Shares of former President Donald J. Trump’s social mediacompany could start trading on the stock market as early as Monday, immediately raising his net worth by around $3 billion — wealth that Mr. Trump may be able to tap to pay his mounting legal bills as he seeks a second presidential term."

    NY Times
    Even with the point about not being able to access it immediately, it is amazing to think he might get so a huge boost to his wealth, without so many of the caveats people raised about his properties and his own estimation of brand value, and from a social media site with a limited audience reach and shelflife.

    I mean, when the big man eventually goes to the golden palace in the sky, does anyone think Trump Jr, Eric, or Ivanka are going to energise the MAGA grifter economy? Selling tokens of their departed demigod, maybe, but none of them can hold a candle next to his flame.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,465
    rcs1000 said:

    Many ancient PB threads (if anyone's feeling nostalgic) can be accessed via the Wayback Machine on the Internet Archive, though its search and indexing is somewhat haphazard. For example, here are some threads from 2005:

    https://web.archive.org/web/20060107142811/http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2005/06/

    The comments are still there, too, from stalwarts such as Roger, Andrea, Nick Palmer and Andy Cooke, among others.

    Wow, what a great find.

    I spotted SeanF, JackW and a few others who are still here today.

    I also spotted Squadron Leader Rik Willis!
    Yes, a few good "blasts from the past" there. I appear as "Alan J".
This discussion has been closed.