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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On this day exactly two years ago YouGov had CON in the lead on 40pc
At the end of February 2012 the Tories were still getting the benefit from the after-glow of what became known as the “Veto-gasm” – the polling boost that followed from David Cameron’s famous Brussels veto.
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It is perceived that the current economic recovery benefits just a few people rather than the wider public. A stagnating minimum wage and low income wage growth coupled with a large reduction in corporation taxes and the reduction of the top tax rate to 45p has been devastating to the electoral prospects of both parties. Until they can show they are on the side of the working man by boosting the minimum wage and cutting taxes for small businesses and middle income earners they will not benefit from the current economic recovery. It is too concentrated in London and a few other urban areas.
Right now, the polls are correct. The coalition is in power but rather than governing for the whole country, they are governing for the south of England and south of Wales only. The gains of the economic recovery need to be spread to other regions in the Midlands, North and Scotland. While the coalition parties do not have much to gain in these areas, in term of seats, the perception that they are in it to help everyone rather than just their own narrow set of supporters in the south will be enough to see their poll rating recover.
"Farage closed on the rousing note that UKIP would "make patriotism as respectable idea once again". Earlier in the day he was cornered by the BBC, who asked him about the party's new slogan: "Love Britain, Vote UKIP", which the Guido Fawkes blog pointed out was strikingly similar to that of the extremist British National Party.
Farage responded robustly, "The National Front use the Union Jack, we haven't burned them all have we? Come on... To hell with the BNP or anyone else... It's our slogan now. Love Britain, Vote UKIP. Not changing it. Keeping it forever. Keeping it until the day we exit the European Union, get back control over our borders, get back control of our country, and get back a sense of self respect of who we are as a nation""
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/02/28/Farage-speech-ukip-conference
twitter.com/JasonFarrellSky/status/439374209513701376
Where UKIP win the locals is going to be interesting. Will they reveal any Labour-held target seats for UKIP?
http://www.basingstokegazette.co.uk/news/11044621.Liberal_Democrats_select_candidate_to_challenge_Maria_Miller_in_2015_general_election/?ref=rss&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed
I think UKIP would also poll well in Barking & Dagenham, Bexley, Bromley, Hillingdon, and parts of Redbridge and Sutton, depending on where they field candidates.
Outside London, I'd look to places like Great Yarmouth, Eastleigh, Tunbridge Wells, Thurrock, Harlow, Basildon, Plymouth, Rotherham, Portsmouth, Dudley, Calderdale, Adur as councils where could see UKIP make a breakthrough.
You know my views on it though, I think this is one of the areas in which we agree, both of us coming from very modest backgrounds and having attended grammar schools.
The previous thread only mentions that you aren't talking about this subject as the story is *behind a paywall* - given it's only £1 to read the Sun's epic hatchet job and it's all over the Mail's website here http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2569570/Patricia-Hewitt-breaks-silence-groups-links-National-Council-Civil-Liberties-boss.html that seems rather limp given the enormity of the crap storm Labour is experiencing.
As for Mrs Hewitt - at least BT's PR people have told her to get her apology out pronto now she's been put in the frame. Mr and Mrs Harman would've been wise to do so before now. Too late me thinks.
Hope you are all well. See you again sometime.
Off-topic, Cobol is a lovely, (mostly) straight-forward, logical language. It also (partly) keeps me in a job, so I am biased.
'Dave is Crap. Ed is Crap. Vote UKIP!'
http://www.leftfootforward.org/2014/02/ukip-conference-building-received-3million-european-funding/
Plus Torquay as a whole has benefitted from more EU funding.
Funny.
I don't care about this foolish idea that the government shouldn't try to pick winners because time and again the world has showed there will always be a requirement for STEM graduates. British companies are crying out for high quality graduates in these areas from the financial sector to computing, STEM graduates are in demand. By funding scholarships for the best and brightest the government could encourage people into these fields and ensure that we have a steady supply of well educated people to ensure long term prosperity.
While the £9k fees have tipped the balance in favour of traditional subjects, I believe the equation needs to be adjusted further to support students who want to study in this specific area.
Nice to see you on, Miss Plato.
I expect UKIP to have a decent showing in this constituency. I'd be surprised if their votes were less than the margin of victory for Balls.
The sitting Conservative MP is Angela Watkinson, about as far right a Tory as you get nowadays. I wouldn't be amazed if she defected to UKIP... even discounting that, BNP & UKIP got almost 12% in 2010
As I have said many times, Thurrock at 16/1 looks a great bet for 2015,and I would like to see the prices on Hornchurch and Upminster... any 33s and above would be worth a punt
Havering is unlike almost any other London borough in terms of demographic, I think the percentage of non English speakers is 5% compared to the London average of 22% .There has been a storm brewing about our council merging with Newham, which is like twinning chalk with cheese, and if the Romford Tories are already defecting I would think UKIP could do fantastically in 2015 as well as this Mays locals
And it's not an old boys network anymore - it's a return to being a guild based system.
If you want to be a lawyer, for instance, it will be far more useful to know antifrank, cyclefree or Sean-F than it would be to know me.
Come off it Charles. The old boys network is alive and well.
http://survation.com/2013/05/ukip-won-in-8-westminster-constituencies-last-thursday/
Now it may well be that people now just accept uncontrolled immigration and that we are tied to the EU forever more without recovering any sovereignty. However, I doubt it. I suspect its more likely that people have passed the point where Cameron's failures any longer evoke any passion and are just accepted as further examples of Cameron's fallability. In short Cameron's die is caste much as by 2009 so was Brown's
Now if that's the case then the good news for the Tories is that the Tories probably won't lose too many more votes. The bad news is that they likely won't win many lost votes back either. Particularly because as we have seen in 2010 Cameron tends to be the type who is fast out of the blocks forcing a big lead in the back straight but begins to fade early on the final turn and definitely has no extra gear down the final straight.
"It's my flag too, and I want it back."
Isn't that a problem with your message, Mr. N., it promotes the status quo and says to certain voters that you must vote for a party that doesn't represent your views for fear that a party whose policies you will like even less will get power. Once that idea becomes accepted no change is possible and democracy becomes meaningless. Labour moved to a party of power because enough people were prepared to vote for something that they wanted regardless of warnings that it might split the vote.
If the Conservatives want to achieve a majority again then they must start representing the views, morals and values of more than 40% of the voting population and show that they are competent to implement the policies that spring from those views whilst they are in government. Cameron, as leader of the party, has failed on both counts. Why should a working class small c conservative vote for Cameron?
In any event, it only gets you an interview or a mini-pupillage (the latter, in particular, being very valuable) not a guaranteed job
Until then, though, it would focus on immigration and the iniquitousness of Britain's relationship with the EU"
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/02/28/Farage-speech-ukip-conference
I think a thin GE manifesto is the right choice. UKIP are not going to win a majority in 2015, so it's silly to pretend they will. A few key policies, and an indication of direction is all that's required.
Comparisons with Labour in the early part of the 20th century don't really stand up. Labour was based on a ready-made Trade Union movement, and had a clear agenda. UKIP should be seen more as like the Five Star Movement in Italy. It may rise in vote-share terms for a bit, and wreck good government in the short term, but it won't lead anywhere in the longer term because it is entirely incoherent. The one clear aim they have, namely getting an opportunity to leave the EU, they seem to be doing everything in their power to prevent happening.
Incidentally, one curious dog that hasn't yet barked in the night is UKIP's very stong support for fracking. I rather think all those Tory shire voters tempted to vote UKIP haven't cottoned on to that policy yet. (As it happens, I think UKIP are right on that particular point, but it's electorally pretty toxic amongst a good chunk of their target voters).
But, there's no doubt having money helps a lot. These days, you need to repay a student loan, and pay stiff fees to go through Law School (although some firms cover these). Regulatory requirements and the cost of professional indemnity insurance make setting up your firm and enormous financial commitment.
I'd like to think of myself as the sort of person all parties want to attract, as I'm open to all of them. I passionately despise many in Labour at the moment, but find some of the party's aims and morals positive. I agree with the Lib Dems on many things, and the same with the Conservatives. If the right candidate came along, I could vote for any of them (although it would be harder to vote Labour due to the Miliband/Balls deficit and the ever-present loony left).
Even if I came off my uncomfortable position on the fence on Europe and became a BOOer, I could not vote for UKIP. And that's sad, because I'd like to have them as a choice.
Great Grimsby
Birmingham Edgbaston
Wakefield
Gedling
Walsall South
Nottingham South
Blackpool South
Southampton Test
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dEk1TlVqMHhNUXFBWlhSNU1hd0FYSHc#gid=0
And on the subject of paedophiles, how do people feel about the sentence in this case - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-16536143
Wales is more interesting to call for UKIP. On the one hand, they might suffer from a stereotype of being an English party, but on the other hand, Wales demographically does have a lot of UKIP-friendly demographics. Population is overwhelmingly dominated by white people, lots of seaside towns which have been heavily hammered in recent years by the decline in domestic tourism, people have a somewhat socially conservative outlook. Plus Labour is in a longterm decline in Wales (easy to forget that, rather than Scotland, it was always Wales that used to be considered their prime heartland, but I believe they got their worst result there since WW2 last time), while they're still pretty hostile to the Tories.
In the 2013 County Council elections UKIP exceeded 33% in 9 seats at least and exceeded the 20% the Greens achieved in 2007 in dozens of seats (and virtually every seat contested in Kent). To suggest that "UKIP are nowhere near achieving the same concentration of support that the Greens required to win their first seat" would seem to be wishful thinking......
Of course thats not to say there are not other factors that will limit UKIPs opportunities but the 'concentration' of votes does not seem to be one of them.......
http://survation.com/2013/05/ukip-won-in-8-westminster-constituencies-last-thursday/
I can't hep but thinking that her hideous crimes have not had quite enough attention, and her victims enough sympathy.
"Former Labour council candidate David Christison filmed men urinating in Centrale shopping centre toilets
A former council candidate filmed men urinating in Centrale shopping centre's toilets for sexual pleasure.
David Christison, who stood for Labour in Waddon in 2010 election, secretly videoed and photographed men least 30 times between 2010 and last year.
The 44-year-old, of Dunheved Road South, Thornton Heath, pleaded guilty to two counts of observing a person doing a private act at Croydon Magistrates' Court today."
http://www.croydonguardian.co.uk/news/11043111.Councillor_wannabe_filmed_men_urinating_in_shopping_centre_toilets/
That said, UKIP should be able to do well enough with people who vote Conservative in the local elections to win two Euro seats in London.
I don't actually get this obsession with Latin. In a day that is already very full, why teach kids a dead language when you can teach them one that they actually have a chance of using? Obviously, if there is evidence that it is a springboard to multi-lingualism then that's great. But is there? Miriam Clegg said recently that she rarely met public school educated men who speak foreign languages, but presumably most of them must have done Latin.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/26387836
I would've taken Latin, but unfortunately I had to choose that, classical civilisation or German. I would've preferred to take all of them, and drop French, but didn't have the choice.
http://news.sky.com/story/1219033/triple-killer-joanne-dennehy-in-jail-for-life
Only the second woman to receive such a sentence, after Rose West.
Perhaps we should criminalise the desire for vengeance. which seems to afflict more Peebies with each day that passes, as well?
I guess it's also one of those, "it didn't hurt in the past, so why stop", things. People may form a causal link between the decline in schooling in the nation and the lack of teaching of advanced subjects like Latin.
The latest Welsh poll puts UKIP on 18% for the Euros.
It doesn't occur to the Cameroons I might not want to vote Evil in the first place.
But that's a problem with UKIP: aside from getting out of Europe, what are its views? The mess over its 2010 manifesto shows that aside from Europe it has few beliefs as a party. Whilst all parties have to be broad churches to appeal, UKIP appears more like Miliband's blank sheet of paper. Or more accurately, a piece of paper that a five year-old has scribbled over during a sugar rush.
All that demonstrates is your inability to look at the UKIP site or listen to what Farage and other senior members of UKIP have been saying. You are just peddling the same disingenuous spin that Gordon Brown did about the Tories in 2007.
http://www.ukip.org/issues/policy-pages/what-we-stand-for
Violent crime erupts in our cities. "
So; world not getting better, huh?
+1/+1
I do speak many languages, I grew up in a multi-lingual house, I spoke English, Urdu and Punjabi (and still do)
Additionally, I can speak German and French very well, learned at school.
I'm planning to learn to speak Portuguese and Spanish sometime soon.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjYn5Ew9Z2g&feature=youtu.be
Via Guido.
http://youtu.be/mJx_TAZuYec
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/the-five-myths-about-fracking-(1).aspx
They'd have to get past that first before the old boy network became a problem.
There's no point learning German, all the Germans can speak English already.
(Though they are very appreciative of English people that have taken the time to learn German)