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About the Farage comeback – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    edited March 18
    148grss said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theipaper

    Opinion | Even Rishi’s ring-binder can’t stop the Tory death spiral

    Emotional intelligence is the missing ingredient in the Sunak mix and it is coming to dominate everything, as both voters and MPs ask whether the PM really gets it, writes
    @KateEMcCann

    https://t.co/yDwgIOZrnE

    I don't even put this down to emotional intelligence. If he was willing to propose and enact policies that would actually help people, still being the feckless wet hen he is, I think people would cut him more slack. The issue is that no politician seems up for proposing things people like and know will help them - which would be more government spending on services and increased taxes on those with high levels of wealth and income, alongside sensible regulation to counter the inflation we have seen in the last 6 months. People aren't stupid - they see their electric and gas bills increase at the same time headlines cry how much profit these companies are making. People see their Council Tax go up and local services and roads crumble. They just want things to be less shit.
    Trouble is, taxes are already high

    If you increase taxes on the wealthy they will just fuck off abroad - like me. So many jobs can now be done remotely - and thanks to digital nomad visas other countries are making it highly feasible to move to sunnier climes with much lower tax rates. Ok these new places will have less fascinating cultural diversity and fewer menacing pro Palestinian rallies and you’ve got to put up with nightlife that actually goes on after 11pm but nothing is perfect
    Taxes on high incomes are not that high, especially for those marginal few making millions a year. And for those people, yes they can go abroad if they wish, but they almost certainly won't wish because they work here and London is the cultural capital of the English speaking world.

    As well as that we could do some innovative wealth taxes - land value taxes, taxes on second and third homes, taxes on certain trading practices that magic money out of 1s and 0s, etc. At the end of the day money needs to move more efficiently than it currently is, and rich people are sitting on money and assets rather than spending it in the economy. If you give poorer people money, they'll spend - which in many instances will grow the economy without causing inflation (the recent bout of inflation being caused by supply chain issues rather than too much cash being in the economy). Manage that, and you'll get what every capitalist should supposedly want - happy workers and a good market. It will just lower some top level profits somewhat.
    You don’t realise how mobile people have become. People have worked out that, not only can they work from home, they can work from somewhere really sunny

    A prescient Spectator article from 2022

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-work-from-home-when-you-can-work-from-paradise/


    And is London still that buzzing global capital? I’d like to think so, it’s my home and I own property there. I’m just not sure any more

    Btw you’ll be displeased to know I agree with you on starmer. He will get a massive majority but the mood will fiercely turn against him when it becomes obvious he has no more money and no bright ideas and nothing will improve quickly, if at all

    And in some ways - Wokeness - he will be even worse than the Tories and will immediately annoy lots of people
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Donkeys said:

    Donkeys said:

    Truman said:

    On the topic of Putins "popularity" russian gdp per head is up 11 fold between 1999 and 2024. Thats a massive increase in standard of living at a time when the uk has stagnated.

    per annum per capita growth for a quarter of a century. Impressive.
    Do you get double the pay for using two logins at once?
    I was joking! It's obvious that standards of living in Russia haven't increased by 10% each year for 25 years.
    It's almost like Russia benefited massively from the commodities boom of the last quarter century.

    With that said, Outside Moscow and St.Petersburg, there's very little evidence of prosperity in Russia. Most of rural, and small city, Russia is dirt poor, with little commerce, and few prospects. Much of the country still has dirt tracks rather than paved roads.
    Hmmmm

    Not sure that’s completely true

    Russia is vast and varied. There are definitely huge regions which are shockingly poor

    But also unexpected areas of prosperity - the commodity rich north or the pacific coast or down south around the Black Sea - they can be rather nice
    Sure, there are little islands of prosperity. But most of Russia makes Albania look prosperous.

    One of the fascinating things I learned early on in the Ukraine war, was that many Russian conscripts were shocked at how wealthy Ukraine felt, and how that was completely at odds with what they'd been told.

    We forget, as it's a year or so since they were looting all the washing machines and toilet seats.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,513
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Donkeys said:

    Donkeys said:

    Truman said:

    On the topic of Putins "popularity" russian gdp per head is up 11 fold between 1999 and 2024. Thats a massive increase in standard of living at a time when the uk has stagnated.

    per annum per capita growth for a quarter of a century. Impressive.
    Do you get double the pay for using two logins at once?
    I was joking! It's obvious that standards of living in Russia haven't increased by 10% each year for 25 years.
    It's almost like Russia benefited massively from the commodities boom of the last quarter century.

    With that said, Outside Moscow and St.Petersburg, there's very little evidence of prosperity in Russia. Most of rural, and small city, Russia is dirt poor, with little commerce, and few prospects. Much of the country still has dirt tracks rather than paved roads.
    Hmmmm

    Not sure that’s completely true

    Russia is vast and varied. There are definitely huge regions which are shockingly poor

    But also unexpected areas of prosperity - the commodity rich north or the pacific coast or down south around the Black Sea - they can be rather nice
    I think there are rather fewer holidaymakers in Crimea than previously.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    148grss said:

    They just want things to be less shit.

    Which is why Starmer is heading for a landslide
    I agree. I just think people won't give Starmer very long before they expect things to be less shit, and nothing Starmer is currently proposing seems to be aimed at making life less shit - so I expect both a Labour landslide in the next GE and then mass dissatisfaction with them in a year or so.
    The PB Tory-Lefties seem to swing daily from:

    • SKS is a Red Tory who will change nothing at all
    • SKS is a closet socialist revolutionary who has a secret plan to launch a state-mandated kleptocracy after two years in power
    • SKS an incompetent but lucky general who will preside over chaos and be hated within 12 months of power
    Yes!

    I can understand just how depressing it must be if you are a natural conservative. The government have the name but none of the policies, and appear to doing all they can to not just remove themselves from power but do so for a long time.

    Sometimes we need to drop the party label nonsense as positions have shifted so much. Even if you are a natural conservative you have to ask - is what we're doing now good for the country or even just for our kind of politics? And as it isn't then the conclusion surely is The Ben Wallace Gambit:

    "It's too late, right. Get on with it."
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    148grss said:

    They just want things to be less shit.

    Which is why Starmer is heading for a landslide
    I agree. I just think people won't give Starmer very long before they expect things to be less shit, and nothing Starmer is currently proposing seems to be aimed at making life less shit - so I expect both a Labour landslide in the next GE and then mass dissatisfaction with them in a year or so.
    No - Labour will be riding high for a year or two at least, the every fact the we have a government which is actually doing some governing and acting in what it believes to be the national interest will lead to a huge sigh of relief at all levels and I would expect a short-term increase in investment as business reacted to the return of a stable policy environment.

    I would expect Labour to hold an early budget which will begin to shift the burden of taxation away from the incomes of poorer people toward the assets of richer people - this will result in a jump in growth as the poorer people will be spending money which the richer would have saved. Then of course there will be investment in public service, though it will take time for this to produce visible results. And attempts to reduce trade barriers with the EU.

    People understand that it has taken the Tories 14 years to create the mess the UK is in - it won't all be resolved overnight but as long as things appear to be moving in the right direction I suspect Labour will retain the benefit of the doubt for quite some time.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theipaper

    Opinion | Even Rishi’s ring-binder can’t stop the Tory death spiral

    Emotional intelligence is the missing ingredient in the Sunak mix and it is coming to dominate everything, as both voters and MPs ask whether the PM really gets it, writes
    @KateEMcCann

    https://t.co/yDwgIOZrnE

    I don't even put this down to emotional intelligence. If he was willing to propose and enact policies that would actually help people, still being the feckless wet hen he is, I think people would cut him more slack. The issue is that no politician seems up for proposing things people like and know will help them - which would be more government spending on services and increased taxes on those with high levels of wealth and income, alongside sensible regulation to counter the inflation we have seen in the last 6 months. People aren't stupid - they see their electric and gas bills increase at the same time headlines cry how much profit these companies are making. People see their Council Tax go up and local services and roads crumble. They just want things to be less shit.
    Trouble is, taxes are already high

    If you increase taxes on the wealthy they will just fuck off abroad - like me. So many jobs can now be done remotely - and thanks to digital nomad visas other countries are making it highly feasible to move to sunnier climes with much lower tax rates. Ok these new places will have less fascinating cultural diversity and fewer menacing pro Palestinian rallies and you’ve got to put up with nightlife that actually goes on after 11pm but nothing is perfect
    I was in Hackney on Saturday. The pub we were in closed at 12pm, so we walked up the road (ten minutes) to another pub that was playing pounding music until 2am.

    You are out of touch.
    No I’m not. The Times - today



    And those Hackney venues are doomed. Hackney council have just passed laws closing everything at 11 or 12 at most. It only applies to new places now but it will be extended. That’s Khan’s new joyless London and it will only get worse

    “In Hackney, all new venues must close by 11PM Mon-Fri and 12PM at the weekend. No new venues can operate later than this.

    Over time the existing venues will need new licenses and therefore the venues that are open after 11/12 will slowly erode until there is literally none left.”

    https://x.com/lukerobertblack/status/1764372293357048228?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    edited March 18

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    148grss said:

    They just want things to be less shit.

    Which is why Starmer is heading for a landslide
    I agree. I just think people won't give Starmer very long before they expect things to be less shit, and nothing Starmer is currently proposing seems to be aimed at making life less shit - so I expect both a Labour landslide in the next GE and then mass dissatisfaction with them in a year or so.
    No - Labour will be riding high for a year or two at least, the every fact the we have a government which is actually doing some governing and acting in what it believes to be the national interest will lead to a huge sigh of relief at all levels and I would expect a short-term increase in investment as business reacted to the return of a stable policy environment.

    I would expect Labour to hold an early budget which will begin to shift the burden of taxation away from the incomes of poorer people toward the assets of richer people - this will result in a jump in growth as the poorer people will be spending money which the richer would have saved. Then of course there will be investment in public service, though it will take time for this to produce visible results. And attempts to reduce trade barriers with the EU.

    People understand that it has taken the Tories 14 years to create the mess the UK is in - it won't all be resolved overnight but as long as things appear to be moving in the right direction I suspect Labour will retain the benefit of the doubt for quite some time.
    Nah, they won’t

    Nobody likes Labour and nobody likes starmer

    They’re just desperate to get rid of the Tories and starmer is a boring blank slate on to which they can project ANYTHING

    It’s a clever way to get elected but then when Starmer has to do something - eg immigration and the boats - it will become clear he has no idea very fast. And the backlash will follow that
  • Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theipaper

    Opinion | Even Rishi’s ring-binder can’t stop the Tory death spiral

    Emotional intelligence is the missing ingredient in the Sunak mix and it is coming to dominate everything, as both voters and MPs ask whether the PM really gets it, writes
    @KateEMcCann

    https://t.co/yDwgIOZrnE

    I don't even put this down to emotional intelligence. If he was willing to propose and enact policies that would actually help people, still being the feckless wet hen he is, I think people would cut him more slack. The issue is that no politician seems up for proposing things people like and know will help them - which would be more government spending on services and increased taxes on those with high levels of wealth and income, alongside sensible regulation to counter the inflation we have seen in the last 6 months. People aren't stupid - they see their electric and gas bills increase at the same time headlines cry how much profit these companies are making. People see their Council Tax go up and local services and roads crumble. They just want things to be less shit.
    Trouble is, taxes are already high

    If you increase taxes on the wealthy they will just fuck off abroad - like me. So many jobs can now be done remotely - and thanks to digital nomad visas other countries are making it highly feasible to move to sunnier climes with much lower tax rates. Ok these new places will have less fascinating cultural diversity and fewer menacing pro Palestinian rallies and you’ve got to put up with nightlife that actually goes on after 11pm but nothing is perfect
    Taxes on high incomes are not that high, especially for those marginal few making millions a year. And for those people, yes they can go abroad if they wish, but they almost certainly won't wish because they work here and London is the cultural capital of the English speaking world.

    As well as that we could do some innovative wealth taxes - land value taxes, taxes on second and third homes, taxes on certain trading practices that magic money out of 1s and 0s, etc. At the end of the day money needs to move more efficiently than it currently is, and rich people are sitting on money and assets rather than spending it in the economy. If you give poorer people money, they'll spend - which in many instances will grow the economy without causing inflation (the recent bout of inflation being caused by supply chain issues rather than too much cash being in the economy). Manage that, and you'll get what every capitalist should supposedly want - happy workers and a good market. It will just lower some top level profits somewhat.
    You don’t realise how mobile people have become. People have worked out that, not only can they work from home, they can work from somewhere really sunny

    A prescient Spectator article from 2022

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-work-from-home-when-you-can-work-from-paradise/


    And is London still that buzzing global capital? I’d like to think so, it’s my home and I own property there. I’m just not sure any more

    Btw you’ll be displeased to know I agree with you on starmer. He will get a massive majority but the mood will fiercely turn against him when it becomes obvious he has no more money and no bright ideas and nothing will improve quickly, if at all

    And in some ways - Wokeness - he will be even worse than the Tories and will immediately annoy lots of people
    Incomes are mobile, yet we tax them through the roof.

    Land is immobile yet it's barely taxed.

    Wage earnings can be dodged or fudged. Land ownership can't be.

    We should reduce wages on working and increase taxes on land.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,213

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    148grss said:

    They just want things to be less shit.

    Which is why Starmer is heading for a landslide
    I agree. I just think people won't give Starmer very long before they expect things to be less shit, and nothing Starmer is currently proposing seems to be aimed at making life less shit - so I expect both a Labour landslide in the next GE and then mass dissatisfaction with them in a year or so.
    The PB Tory-Lefties seem to swing daily from:

    • SKS is a Red Tory who will change nothing at all
    • SKS is a closet socialist revolutionary who has a secret plan to launch a state-mandated kleptocracy after two years in power
    • SKS an incompetent but lucky general who will preside over chaos and be hated within 12 months of power
    I don't think people are moving positions.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theipaper

    Opinion | Even Rishi’s ring-binder can’t stop the Tory death spiral

    Emotional intelligence is the missing ingredient in the Sunak mix and it is coming to dominate everything, as both voters and MPs ask whether the PM really gets it, writes
    @KateEMcCann

    https://t.co/yDwgIOZrnE

    I don't even put this down to emotional intelligence. If he was willing to propose and enact policies that would actually help people, still being the feckless wet hen he is, I think people would cut him more slack. The issue is that no politician seems up for proposing things people like and know will help them - which would be more government spending on services and increased taxes on those with high levels of wealth and income, alongside sensible regulation to counter the inflation we have seen in the last 6 months. People aren't stupid - they see their electric and gas bills increase at the same time headlines cry how much profit these companies are making. People see their Council Tax go up and local services and roads crumble. They just want things to be less shit.
    Trouble is, taxes are already high

    If you increase taxes on the wealthy they will just fuck off abroad - like me. So many jobs can now be done remotely - and thanks to digital nomad visas other countries are making it highly feasible to move to sunnier climes with much lower tax rates. Ok these new places will have less fascinating cultural diversity and fewer menacing pro Palestinian rallies and you’ve got to put up with nightlife that actually goes on after 11pm but nothing is perfect
    Taxes on high incomes are not that high, especially for those marginal few making millions a year. And for those people, yes they can go abroad if they wish, but they almost certainly won't wish because they work here and London is the cultural capital of the English speaking world.

    As well as that we could do some innovative wealth taxes - land value taxes, taxes on second and third homes, taxes on certain trading practices that magic money out of 1s and 0s, etc. At the end of the day money needs to move more efficiently than it currently is, and rich people are sitting on money and assets rather than spending it in the economy. If you give poorer people money, they'll spend - which in many instances will grow the economy without causing inflation (the recent bout of inflation being caused by supply chain issues rather than too much cash being in the economy). Manage that, and you'll get what every capitalist should supposedly want - happy workers and a good market. It will just lower some top level profits somewhat.
    You don’t realise how mobile people have become. People have worked out that, not only can they work from home, they can work from somewhere really sunny

    A prescient Spectator article from 2022

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-work-from-home-when-you-can-work-from-paradise/


    And is London still that buzzing global capital? I’d like to think so, it’s my home and I own property there. I’m just not sure any more

    Btw you’ll be displeased to know I agree with you on starmer. He will get a massive majority but the mood will fiercely turn against him when it becomes obvious he has no more money and no bright ideas and nothing will improve quickly, if at all

    And in some ways - Wokeness - he will be even worse than the Tories and will immediately annoy lots of people
    Incomes are mobile, yet we tax them through the roof.

    Land is immobile yet it's barely taxed.

    Wage earnings can be dodged or fudged. Land ownership can't be.

    We should reduce wages on working and increase taxes on land.
    I have some sympathy with that
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,061
    Isn't he standing down ?

    It’s too late to replace Sunak so Tories must ‘march towards the sound of the guns’, Ben Wallace says
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/mar/18/kemi-badenoch-appeal-tory-unity-rishi-sunak-might-call-general-election-conservatives-labour-uk-politics-latest-updates

    Almost Boris level courage there.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627
    rcs1000 said:

    Donkeys said:

    Donkeys said:

    Truman said:

    On the topic of Putins "popularity" russian gdp per head is up 11 fold between 1999 and 2024. Thats a massive increase in standard of living at a time when the uk has stagnated.

    per annum per capita growth for a quarter of a century. Impressive.
    Do you get double the pay for using two logins at once?
    I was joking! It's obvious that standards of living in Russia haven't increased by 10% each year for 25 years.
    It's almost like Russia benefited massively from the commodities boom of the last quarter century.

    With that said, Outside Moscow and St.Petersburg, there's very little evidence of prosperity in Russia. Most of rural, and small city, Russia is dirt poor, with little commerce, and few prospects. Much of the country still has dirt tracks rather than paved roads.
    I was in both for the 2018 World Cup, and in those cities the standard of living looked pretty similar to other bits of Eastern Europe. The small towns look desolate from the train.

    Putins support is mostly in these rural areas I think. The peasants love their czar, and the smack of firm government.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Donkeys said:

    Donkeys said:

    Truman said:

    On the topic of Putins "popularity" russian gdp per head is up 11 fold between 1999 and 2024. Thats a massive increase in standard of living at a time when the uk has stagnated.

    per annum per capita growth for a quarter of a century. Impressive.
    Do you get double the pay for using two logins at once?
    I was joking! It's obvious that standards of living in Russia haven't increased by 10% each year for 25 years.
    It's almost like Russia benefited massively from the commodities boom of the last quarter century.

    With that said, Outside Moscow and St.Petersburg, there's very little evidence of prosperity in Russia. Most of rural, and small city, Russia is dirt poor, with little commerce, and few prospects. Much of the country still has dirt tracks rather than paved roads.
    Hmmmm

    Not sure that’s completely true

    Russia is vast and varied. There are definitely huge regions which are shockingly poor

    But also unexpected areas of prosperity - the commodity rich north or the pacific coast or down south around the Black Sea - they can be rather nice
    Sure, there are little islands of prosperity. But most of Russia makes Albania look prosperous.

    One of the fascinating things I learned early on in the Ukraine war, was that many Russian conscripts were shocked at how wealthy Ukraine felt, and how that was completely at odds with what they'd been told.

    The looting of white goods etc would support that observation. It shows what is concealed by mean GDP stats, and also how greedy the Russian kleptocracy is.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theipaper

    Opinion | Even Rishi’s ring-binder can’t stop the Tory death spiral

    Emotional intelligence is the missing ingredient in the Sunak mix and it is coming to dominate everything, as both voters and MPs ask whether the PM really gets it, writes
    @KateEMcCann

    https://t.co/yDwgIOZrnE

    I don't even put this down to emotional intelligence. If he was willing to propose and enact policies that would actually help people, still being the feckless wet hen he is, I think people would cut him more slack. The issue is that no politician seems up for proposing things people like and know will help them - which would be more government spending on services and increased taxes on those with high levels of wealth and income, alongside sensible regulation to counter the inflation we have seen in the last 6 months. People aren't stupid - they see their electric and gas bills increase at the same time headlines cry how much profit these companies are making. People see their Council Tax go up and local services and roads crumble. They just want things to be less shit.
    Trouble is, taxes are already high

    If you increase taxes on the wealthy they will just fuck off abroad - like me. So many jobs can now be done remotely - and thanks to digital nomad visas other countries are making it highly feasible to move to sunnier climes with much lower tax rates. Ok these new places will have less fascinating cultural diversity and fewer menacing pro Palestinian rallies and you’ve got to put up with nightlife that actually goes on after 11pm but nothing is perfect
    I was in Hackney on Saturday. The pub we were in closed at 12pm, so we walked up the road (ten minutes) to another pub that was playing pounding music until 2am.

    You are out of touch.
    No I’m not. The Times - today



    And those Hackney venues are doomed. Hackney council have just passed laws closing everything at 11 or 12 at most. It only applies to new places now but it will be extended. That’s Khan’s new joyless London and it will only get worse

    “In Hackney, all new venues must close by 11PM Mon-Fri and 12PM at the weekend. No new venues can operate later than this.

    Over time the existing venues will need new licenses and therefore the venues that are open after 11/12 will slowly erode until there is literally none left.”

    https://x.com/lukerobertblack/status/1764372293357048228?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    Again, you are projecting. The venues in Hackney were OPEN on Saturday. I was THERE.

    As for this Times clickbait nonsense, two-seconds on Google Maps shows you how many bars in Soho are open top 12am, 1am, later... (TLDR – the answer is LOTS). I had 'breakfast' at Balans with a cocktail at 3am very recently. On a Thursday. It does close early on a Thursday admittedly – at 5am rather than 6am.

  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,513
    Truman said:

    148grss said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    First?

    Reform are going nowhere. They have the potential to cost a lot of Tories their seats but not by being elected themselves. Instead they will let Labour in with a comfortable majority and probably for the next 10 years. How does that advance their agenda? Pointless.

    The crank left have agitated against capitalism for decades. There is zero chance of them actually gaining power *and implementing* their agenda, but they do so regardless.

    Why is the crank right any different?
    The main difference is that the right wing cranks seem to be able to attract almost 10% of the vote, mainly at the cost of the Conservatives, whilst the left wing cranks don't really trouble the scorers. But I agree that as cranks they have a lot in common.
    The crank right are also still beneficial to capitalism, no matter what they campaign on, so the structures of capital will allow them to succeed in a way that those structures refuse to give the left even a slight chance.
    Yes indeed. Many with capital.voted for Hitler to prevent the communists getting in.
    With reference to the 4 factors of production, the crank right are a front for owners of Land and Resources. They intend to screw over both Capital and Labour.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theipaper

    Opinion | Even Rishi’s ring-binder can’t stop the Tory death spiral

    Emotional intelligence is the missing ingredient in the Sunak mix and it is coming to dominate everything, as both voters and MPs ask whether the PM really gets it, writes
    @KateEMcCann

    https://t.co/yDwgIOZrnE

    I don't even put this down to emotional intelligence. If he was willing to propose and enact policies that would actually help people, still being the feckless wet hen he is, I think people would cut him more slack. The issue is that no politician seems up for proposing things people like and know will help them - which would be more government spending on services and increased taxes on those with high levels of wealth and income, alongside sensible regulation to counter the inflation we have seen in the last 6 months. People aren't stupid - they see their electric and gas bills increase at the same time headlines cry how much profit these companies are making. People see their Council Tax go up and local services and roads crumble. They just want things to be less shit.
    Trouble is, taxes are already high

    If you increase taxes on the wealthy they will just fuck off abroad - like me. So many jobs can now be done remotely - and thanks to digital nomad visas other countries are making it highly feasible to move to sunnier climes with much lower tax rates. Ok these new places will have less fascinating cultural diversity and fewer menacing pro Palestinian rallies and you’ve got to put up with nightlife that actually goes on after 11pm but nothing is perfect
    I was in Hackney on Saturday. The pub we were in closed at 12pm, so we walked up the road (ten minutes) to another pub that was playing pounding music until 2am.

    You are out of touch.
    No I’m not. The Times - today



    And those Hackney venues are doomed. Hackney council have just passed laws closing everything at 11 or 12 at most. It only applies to new places now but it will be extended. That’s Khan’s new joyless London and it will only get worse

    “In Hackney, all new venues must close by 11PM Mon-Fri and 12PM at the weekend. No new venues can operate later than this.

    Over time the existing venues will need new licenses and therefore the venues that are open after 11/12 will slowly erode until there is literally none left.”

    https://x.com/lukerobertblack/status/1764372293357048228?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    Again, you are projecting. The venues in Hackney were OPEN on Saturday. I was THERE.

    As for this Times clickbait nonsense, two-seconds on Google Maps shows you how many bars in Soho are open top 12am, 1am, later... (TLDR – the answer is LOTS). I had 'breakfast' at Balans with a cocktail at 3am very recently. On a Thursday. It does close early on a Thursday admittedly – at 5am rather than 6am.

    The closing of London’s nightlife is not an illusion. I’ve seen it with my own eyes. Sadly

    And the Hackney changes are only coming in now: read my comment. It will take a few years for khan to close it down completely. But he will
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    First?

    Reform are going nowhere. They have the potential to cost a lot of Tories their seats but not by being elected themselves. Instead they will let Labour in with a comfortable majority and probably for the next 10 years. How does that advance their agenda? Pointless.

    The crank left have agitated against capitalism for decades. There is zero chance of them actually gaining power *and implementing* their agenda, but they do so regardless.

    Why is the crank right any different?
    The main difference is that the right wing cranks seem to be able to attract almost 10% of the vote, mainly at the cost of the Conservatives, whilst the left wing cranks don't really trouble the scorers. But I agree that as cranks they have a lot in common.
    The crank left seem to go Green, these days.
    True, the water melon vote.
    The Greens are being used as Spare Labour, at the moment.
    Greens like BJO loathe Labour, however.
    Nothing "green" about some of these so-called Greens.
    True. I've just seen a pretty vitriolic Green Party leaflet from a candidate standing in the local elections around here.

    A4 folded twice to 6 separate sections. Of these:
    - 3 sections all about Gaza/Palestine
    - 1 section about all about being governed by bankers in London and "ending Labour Party corruption"
    - 1 section about Brexit and rejoining the EU
    - 1 section about a melange of 6 other Green Party claimed policies, just one of which is about a genuine green issue (reducing prices using clean energy), and the only one within the gift of the local authority would encourage car usage (opposing increases in car parking charges).

    Hardly a "local election" leaflet. And just 3% of it is promoting a genuine environmental policy, countered by another 3% promoting a policy that would accelerate climate change. 3%-3%=0%. So that's a net zero (irony!)

    Says it all really. No, the Green Party candidate isn't "green" in any meaningful sense of the word, just an angry far left crank Corbynite who bailed out to them having been a Labour member until 2 years ago.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theipaper

    Opinion | Even Rishi’s ring-binder can’t stop the Tory death spiral

    Emotional intelligence is the missing ingredient in the Sunak mix and it is coming to dominate everything, as both voters and MPs ask whether the PM really gets it, writes
    @KateEMcCann

    https://t.co/yDwgIOZrnE

    I don't even put this down to emotional intelligence. If he was willing to propose and enact policies that would actually help people, still being the feckless wet hen he is, I think people would cut him more slack. The issue is that no politician seems up for proposing things people like and know will help them - which would be more government spending on services and increased taxes on those with high levels of wealth and income, alongside sensible regulation to counter the inflation we have seen in the last 6 months. People aren't stupid - they see their electric and gas bills increase at the same time headlines cry how much profit these companies are making. People see their Council Tax go up and local services and roads crumble. They just want things to be less shit.
    Trouble is, taxes are already high

    If you increase taxes on the wealthy they will just fuck off abroad - like me. So many jobs can now be done remotely - and thanks to digital nomad visas other countries are making it highly feasible to move to sunnier climes with much lower tax rates. Ok these new places will have less fascinating cultural diversity and fewer menacing pro Palestinian rallies and you’ve got to put up with nightlife that actually goes on after 11pm but nothing is perfect
    I was in Hackney on Saturday. The pub we were in closed at 12pm, so we walked up the road (ten minutes) to another pub that was playing pounding music until 2am.

    You are out of touch.
    No I’m not. The Times - today



    And those Hackney venues are doomed. Hackney council have just passed laws closing everything at 11 or 12 at most. It only applies to new places now but it will be extended. That’s Khan’s new joyless London and it will only get worse

    “In Hackney, all new venues must close by 11PM Mon-Fri and 12PM at the weekend. No new venues can operate later than this.

    Over time the existing venues will need new licenses and therefore the venues that are open after 11/12 will slowly erode until there is literally none left.”

    https://x.com/lukerobertblack/status/1764372293357048228?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    Again, you are projecting. The venues in Hackney were OPEN on Saturday. I was THERE.

    As for this Times clickbait nonsense, two-seconds on Google Maps shows you how many bars in Soho are open top 12am, 1am, later... (TLDR – the answer is LOTS). I had 'breakfast' at Balans with a cocktail at 3am very recently. On a Thursday. It does close early on a Thursday admittedly – at 5am rather than 6am.

    The closing of London’s nightlife is not an illusion. I’ve seen it with my own eyes. Sadly

    And the Hackney changes are only coming in now: read my comment. It will take a few years for khan to close it down completely. But he will
    Going the way of your other famous predictions:

    • Self-driving cars
    • Chinese GDP
    • Truss surprising on the upside

    (P.S. Licensing in Hackney has nothing to do with Sadiq Khan)
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895
    Have just read the full quote from Ben Wallace:

    "There comes a moment in time in the electoral cycle where you effectively put on your best suit, you stand up and you march towards the sound of the guns and you get on with it."
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275

    nico679 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @nicholascecil

    Rishi Sunak hints the Tories would accept another £5 million from 'racism' storm donor Frank Hester

    The spineless gimp is still lying .

    Hester did not apologize for his racist comments .
    Who was sitting on the story since 2019? They can't have thought it was particularly urgent to bring it to anyone's attention.
    How do you know they had the story since 2019 . The comments were made in 2019 doesn’t mean they’ve had them since then. Regardless the papers across the board print the stories when they think they’ll have most impact . I await your outrage when a right wing paper sits on a damaging Labour story !
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    CatMan said:
    And yet Man City continue to get away with repeated flouting of the rules over many years. If I were a Forest or Everton fan I would be fuming at this.
    Indeed. The most farcical element of the City transgressions is that the PL have apparently agree a date with City for their 'hearing' but are unable/unwilling to say when that date is.

    But... four points dedicated, who gives a fuck? The Reds are staying up.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,895

    CatMan said:
    And yet Man City continue to get away with repeated flouting of the rules over many years. If I were a Forest or Everton fan I would be fuming at this.
    Based on the offences by Everton and Forest, and the size of their points deductions, we are going to see Citeh docked 20,000 points for their offences...
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theipaper

    Opinion | Even Rishi’s ring-binder can’t stop the Tory death spiral

    Emotional intelligence is the missing ingredient in the Sunak mix and it is coming to dominate everything, as both voters and MPs ask whether the PM really gets it, writes
    @KateEMcCann

    https://t.co/yDwgIOZrnE

    I don't even put this down to emotional intelligence. If he was willing to propose and enact policies that would actually help people, still being the feckless wet hen he is, I think people would cut him more slack. The issue is that no politician seems up for proposing things people like and know will help them - which would be more government spending on services and increased taxes on those with high levels of wealth and income, alongside sensible regulation to counter the inflation we have seen in the last 6 months. People aren't stupid - they see their electric and gas bills increase at the same time headlines cry how much profit these companies are making. People see their Council Tax go up and local services and roads crumble. They just want things to be less shit.
    Trouble is, taxes are already high

    If you increase taxes on the wealthy they will just fuck off abroad - like me. So many jobs can now be done remotely - and thanks to digital nomad visas other countries are making it highly feasible to move to sunnier climes with much lower tax rates. Ok these new places will have less fascinating cultural diversity and fewer menacing pro Palestinian rallies and you’ve got to put up with nightlife that actually goes on after 11pm but nothing is perfect
    The thing is if you are going to live in a declining chaotic country you might as well live in one with good weather. And there are plenty of such countries around.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    First?

    Reform are going nowhere. They have the potential to cost a lot of Tories their seats but not by being elected themselves. Instead they will let Labour in with a comfortable majority and probably for the next 10 years. How does that advance their agenda? Pointless.

    The crank left have agitated against capitalism for decades. There is zero chance of them actually gaining power *and implementing* their agenda, but they do so regardless.

    Why is the crank right any different?
    The main difference is that the right wing cranks seem to be able to attract almost 10% of the vote, mainly at the cost of the Conservatives, whilst the left wing cranks don't really trouble the scorers. But I agree that as cranks they have a lot in common.
    The crank left seem to go Green, these days.
    True, the water melon vote.
    The Greens are being used as Spare Labour, at the moment.
    Greens like BJO loathe Labour, however.
    I'm a member and I don't think I know anybody who would be tempted to vote Labour.

    Starmer's shithousery over Gaza alone is enough to put anyone off.
    There we go. Bugger all to do with environmentalism.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,098
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theipaper

    Opinion | Even Rishi’s ring-binder can’t stop the Tory death spiral

    Emotional intelligence is the missing ingredient in the Sunak mix and it is coming to dominate everything, as both voters and MPs ask whether the PM really gets it, writes
    @KateEMcCann

    https://t.co/yDwgIOZrnE

    I don't even put this down to emotional intelligence. If he was willing to propose and enact policies that would actually help people, still being the feckless wet hen he is, I think people would cut him more slack. The issue is that no politician seems up for proposing things people like and know will help them - which would be more government spending on services and increased taxes on those with high levels of wealth and income, alongside sensible regulation to counter the inflation we have seen in the last 6 months. People aren't stupid - they see their electric and gas bills increase at the same time headlines cry how much profit these companies are making. People see their Council Tax go up and local services and roads crumble. They just want things to be less shit.
    Trouble is, taxes are already high

    If you increase taxes on the wealthy they will just fuck off abroad - like me. So many jobs can now be done remotely - and thanks to digital nomad visas other countries are making it highly feasible to move to sunnier climes with much lower tax rates. Ok these new places will have less fascinating cultural diversity and fewer menacing pro Palestinian rallies and you’ve got to put up with nightlife that actually goes on after 11pm but nothing is perfect
    I was in Hackney on Saturday. The pub we were in closed at 12pm, so we walked up the road (ten minutes) to another pub that was playing pounding music until 2am.

    You are out of touch.
    No I’m not. The Times - today



    And those Hackney venues are doomed. Hackney council have just passed laws closing everything at 11 or 12 at most. It only applies to new places now but it will be extended. That’s Khan’s new joyless London and it will only get worse

    “In Hackney, all new venues must close by 11PM Mon-Fri and 12PM at the weekend. No new venues can operate later than this.

    Over time the existing venues will need new licenses and therefore the venues that are open after 11/12 will slowly erode until there is literally none left.”

    https://x.com/lukerobertblack/status/1764372293357048228?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    Again, you are projecting. The venues in Hackney were OPEN on Saturday. I was THERE.

    As for this Times clickbait nonsense, two-seconds on Google Maps shows you how many bars in Soho are open top 12am, 1am, later... (TLDR – the answer is LOTS). I had 'breakfast' at Balans with a cocktail at 3am very recently. On a Thursday. It does close early on a Thursday admittedly – at 5am rather than 6am.

    The closing of London’s nightlife is not an illusion. I’ve seen it with my own eyes. Sadly

    And the Hackney changes are only coming in now: read my comment. It will take a few years for khan to close it down completely. But he will
    Cos he's owned by Islamists?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    148grss said:

    They just want things to be less shit.

    Which is why Starmer is heading for a landslide
    I agree. I just think people won't give Starmer very long before they expect things to be less shit, and nothing Starmer is currently proposing seems to be aimed at making life less shit - so I expect both a Labour landslide in the next GE and then mass dissatisfaction with them in a year or so.
    No - Labour will be riding high for a year or two at least, the every fact the we have a government which is actually doing some governing and acting in what it believes to be the national interest will lead to a huge sigh of relief at all levels and I would expect a short-term increase in investment as business reacted to the return of a stable policy environment.

    I would expect Labour to hold an early budget which will begin to shift the burden of taxation away from the incomes of poorer people toward the assets of richer people - this will result in a jump in growth as the poorer people will be spending money which the richer would have saved. Then of course there will be investment in public service, though it will take time for this to produce visible results. And attempts to reduce trade barriers with the EU.

    People understand that it has taken the Tories 14 years to create the mess the UK is in - it won't all be resolved overnight but as long as things appear to be moving in the right direction I suspect Labour will retain the benefit of the doubt for quite some time.
    Nah, they won’t

    Nobody likes Labour and nobody likes starmer

    They’re just desperate to get rid of the Tories and starmer is a boring blank slate on to which they can project ANYTHING

    It’s a clever way to get elected but then when Starmer has to do something - eg immigration and the boats - it will become clear he has no idea very fast. And the backlash will follow that
    Immigration is not very high on Labour voters' list of concerns. But even so I think you may find that the French will be more amenable to find solutions with a Labour government that co-operates with them rather than the Tories who merely shout at them and blame them for not resolving problems which the UK itself created by leaving the Dublin convention with Brexit.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009

    “Warm congratulations” from Modi

    https://x.com/narendramodi/status/1769695046268309797

    Warm congratulations to H.E. Mr. Vladimir Putin on his re-election as the President of the Russian Federation. Look forward to working together to further strengthen the time-tested Special & Privileged Strategic Partnership between India and Russia in the years to come.
    @KremlinRussia

    Fascists of the world unite.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747

    Donkeys said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    RobD said:

    148grss said:

    Why does a large amount of Twitter / X believe that Chaz has kicked the bucket? Is this wishful thinking on the poetry of him dying on St Paddy's day; or is this an outcome of the continued palace silence after the weirdness around Kate and Chaz's illness leading to more conspiratorial thinking?

    You must be new to twitter.
    TBF twitter was ahead of the "official" curve when Lizzy popped her clogs. I know it has got much worse since then, and recent Windsor conspiracies have been abound - but still, we know Charles is ill and I wouldn't be surprised to learn he's popped it.
    The King will be at Trooping the Colour but in a carriage while his cancer treatment continues rather than riding a horse, he certainly is not dead

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/royals/26753071/king-charles-trooping-the-colour-cancer/
    What is the poetry of him dying on St. Patrick's Day?

    Fairly sure Charles isn't dead. The lags between queen's death and internet rumours of queen's death, and between queen's death and actual announcement of queen's death, were about 2 hours and 7 hours respectively. It was hardly hushed up.

    The Kate stuff is weirder by far. Not least because it's hard to see who gains by it.
    +1. The Kate thing is weird. I don't understand the point of any of it. If she is seriously unwell, then just say, and expect privacy. Health issues happen. If its something else? Divorce? Seems unlikely. Is she dead? Even more unlikely. At this point its classic Streissand.
    It's not Streisand. Their comms managers may not get their jobs by being the best in the business, but they're not that stupid.

    The mistake is to assume that if she had a health issue they would necessarily be OK with its nature and cause and circumstances coming out. It's easy to think of scenarios where that wouldn't be so - ones that don't involve the anti-Christ or bad people believing what they read on the internet.
    You believe the story about the photograph? I certainly have my doubts, and I am not
    one to go into conspiracy theories.

    Of course it may just be health issues, but if
    she currently looks as good as she did in
    the photo, then why isn't she back at work?
    She looked amazing.
    My guess is that she has something - like a stoma - that she is embarrassed by. In an ideal world she might be like Charles and cancer and use it as a “teachable moment” but you can’t force her to

    The mistake was faking a photo.

    I stress this is just speculation

    IBD and stoma is the logical answer for the non conspiracy minded. Post op treatment by steroids causing puffiness so refusal to give a brief video thanking well wishers. But it doesn’t explain the very odd press management and behaviour of William. Reportedly visiting the hospital only once, the last min ducking out from that funeral. Nor the sudden attention by sections of the global press on an apparently ordinary British aristo mother of three.

    There’s plenty of other things that would be embarrassing for both the patient AND the
    institution of the monarchy and you only need to look at the public comments of MM and Lady Di to hazard a guess as to what.

    If the foreign press reports about the true nature of Charles condition are accurate, you can see how the two combined represent a genuine crisis. The last Prince of Wales had three decades for his image to recover from “caddish” behaviour before taking the top job. The current PoW may not have that luxury.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814
    edited March 18

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theipaper

    Opinion | Even Rishi’s ring-binder can’t stop the Tory death spiral

    Emotional intelligence is the missing ingredient in the Sunak mix and it is coming to dominate everything, as both voters and MPs ask whether the PM really gets it, writes
    @KateEMcCann

    https://t.co/yDwgIOZrnE

    I don't even put this down to emotional intelligence. If he was willing to propose and enact policies that would actually help people, still being the feckless wet hen he is, I think people would cut him more slack. The issue is that no politician seems up for proposing things people like and know will help them - which would be more government spending on services and increased taxes on those with high levels of wealth and income, alongside sensible regulation to counter the inflation we have seen in the last 6 months. People aren't stupid - they see their electric and gas bills increase at the same time headlines cry how much profit these companies are making. People see their Council Tax go up and local services and roads crumble. They just want things to be less shit.
    Trouble is, taxes are already high

    If you increase taxes on the wealthy they will just fuck off abroad - like me. So many jobs can now be done remotely - and thanks to digital nomad visas other countries are making it highly feasible to move to sunnier climes with much lower tax rates. Ok these new places will have less fascinating cultural diversity and fewer menacing pro Palestinian rallies and you’ve got to put up with nightlife that actually goes on after 11pm but nothing is perfect
    Taxes on high incomes are not that high, especially for those marginal few making millions a year. And for those people, yes they can go abroad if they wish, but they almost certainly won't wish because they work here and London is the cultural capital of the English speaking world.

    As well as that we could do some innovative wealth taxes - land value taxes, taxes on second and third homes, taxes on certain trading practices that magic money out of 1s and 0s, etc. At the end of the day money needs to move more efficiently than it currently is, and rich people are sitting on money and assets rather than spending it in the economy. If you give poorer people money, they'll spend - which in many instances will grow the economy without causing inflation (the recent bout of inflation being caused by supply chain issues rather than too much cash being in the economy). Manage that, and you'll get what every capitalist should supposedly want - happy workers and a good market. It will just lower some top level profits somewhat.
    You don’t realise how mobile people have become. People have worked out that, not only can they work from home, they can work from somewhere really sunny

    A prescient Spectator article from 2022

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-work-from-home-when-you-can-work-from-paradise/


    And is London still that buzzing global capital? I’d like to think so, it’s my home and I own property there. I’m just not sure any more

    Btw you’ll be displeased to know I agree with you on starmer. He will get a massive majority but the mood will fiercely turn against him when it becomes obvious he has no more money and no bright ideas and nothing will improve quickly, if at all

    And in some ways - Wokeness - he will be even worse than the Tories and will immediately annoy lots of people
    Incomes are mobile, yet we tax them through the roof.

    Land is immobile yet it's barely taxed.

    Wage earnings can be dodged or fudged. Land ownership can't be.

    We should reduce wages on working and increase taxes on land.
    Er, "reduce wages"?
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058
    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theipaper

    Opinion | Even Rishi’s ring-binder can’t stop the Tory death spiral

    Emotional intelligence is the missing ingredient in the Sunak mix and it is coming to dominate everything, as both voters and MPs ask whether the PM really gets it, writes
    @KateEMcCann

    https://t.co/yDwgIOZrnE

    I don't even put this down to emotional intelligence. If he was willing to propose and enact policies that would actually help people, still being the feckless wet hen he is, I think people would cut him more slack. The issue is that no politician seems up for proposing things people like and know will help them - which would be more government spending on services and increased taxes on those with high levels of wealth and income, alongside sensible regulation to counter the inflation we have seen in the last 6 months. People aren't stupid - they see their electric and gas bills increase at the same time headlines cry how much profit these companies are making. People see their Council Tax go up and local services and roads crumble. They just want things to be less shit.
    Trouble is, taxes are already high

    If you increase taxes on the wealthy they will just fuck off abroad - like me. So many jobs can now be done remotely - and thanks to digital nomad visas other countries are making it highly feasible to move to sunnier climes with much lower tax rates. Ok these new places will have less fascinating cultural diversity and fewer menacing pro Palestinian rallies and you’ve got to put up with nightlife that actually goes on after 11pm but nothing is perfect
    The thing is if you are going to live in a declining chaotic country you might as well live in one with good weather. And there are plenty of such countries around.
    In London April's a spring month
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    edited March 18
    Next PM, Betfair

    Starmer 1.3
    Mordaunt 9
    Badenoch 30
    Farage 38
    Cameron 85
    Braverman 90

    Next Tory leader, Betfair

    Badenoch 4.5
    Mordaunt 5.5
    Braverman 11
    Cleverly 12
    Patel 15.5
    Jenrick 24
    Cameron 26
    Farage 28
    Johnson 34

    Who on earth would bet on Patel at a price of under 500?
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Donkeys said:

    Donkeys said:

    Truman said:

    On the topic of Putins "popularity" russian gdp per head is up 11 fold between 1999 and 2024. Thats a massive increase in standard of living at a time when the uk has stagnated.

    per annum per capita growth for a quarter of a century. Impressive.
    Do you get double the pay for using two logins at once?
    I was joking! It's obvious that standards of living in Russia haven't increased by 10% each year for 25 years.
    It's almost like Russia benefited massively from the commodities boom of the last quarter century.

    With that said, Outside Moscow and St.Petersburg, there's very little evidence of prosperity in Russia. Most of rural, and small city, Russia is dirt poor, with little commerce, and few prospects. Much of the country still has dirt tracks rather than paved roads.
    Hmmmm

    Not sure that’s completely true

    Russia is vast and varied. There are definitely huge regions which are shockingly poor

    But also unexpected areas of prosperity - the commodity rich north or the pacific coast or down south around the Black Sea - they can be rather nice
    Sure, there are little islands of prosperity. But most of Russia makes Albania look prosperous.

    One of the fascinating things I learned early on in the Ukraine war, was that many Russian conscripts were shocked at how wealthy Ukraine felt, and how that was completely at odds with what they'd been told.

    The looting of white goods etc would support that observation. It shows what is concealed by mean GDP stats, and also how greedy the Russian kleptocracy is.
    Ive just read this on reddit. This guy says rural russia and ukraine dont really differ in prosperity.

    I've been to Russia and Ukraine every year until 2014 and they don't really differ in prosperity or lack thereof.

    Speaking from my own experience and my relatives (Kalmykia is a rural place with infrastructure that is lacking 😅): Most people in rural Russia own an own house (they bought or built it back during the Soviet Union times). The people don't starve because they have their own gardens and kettle that cover their basic needs. Kids have toys (cheap Chinese products are available even in rural areas). All people I know have a washing machine (it may not be the newest model but who cares if it's still functioning?). Every household I know has at least one car (it's rather a Lada than a Mercedes, but Mercedes cars aren't built for the Russian "outback" anyway, not even the SUVs 😅, the "richer" people have a Toyota). All people I know have at least one smartphone and tablet/laptop per household (usually every family member has a smartphone), including internet connection. Nutella is a tricky one (rural villages are probably not profitable for them, but there's coca cola, sprite, fanta, etc.). There are several supermarket (franchise) and some local stores. Most people have a flat TV (some have an old fashioned TV. DVD/blue-ray player, music player, etc.

    Based on my experience, I'd say, those news reports about Russian soldiers stealing daily goods are either propaganda or some nasty individuals (in large groups?). There's also a chance that the army is recruiting former criminals (that wouldn't be a new thing in Russian history?).

    If my area would steal something it would be asphalt (don't drive to Elista at night, and only drive slowly during daytime 😂). I've been to number of Oblasts in Russia (all in Europe), but Kalmykian roads are by far the worst. You don't need signs to tell that you've left Rostovskaya Oblast and have entered Kalmykia, because there's literally a clear cut difference in road quality. It goes from a normal street where you can drive 100 km/h to watch out, there are holes, don't go faster than 30 km/h! in less than 10 m 😂 (I'm not exaggerating).
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,513

    Have just read the full quote from Ben Wallace:

    "There comes a moment in time in the electoral cycle where you effectively put on your best suit, you stand up and you march towards the sound of the guns and you get on with it."

    Nicked from Jo Grimond.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,243

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    148grss said:

    They just want things to be less shit.

    Which is why Starmer is heading for a landslide
    I agree. I just think people won't give Starmer very long before they expect things to be less shit, and nothing Starmer is currently proposing seems to be aimed at making life less shit - so I expect both a Labour landslide in the next GE and then mass dissatisfaction with them in a year or so.
    No - Labour will be riding high for a year or two at least, the every fact the we have a government which is actually doing some governing and acting in what it believes to be the national interest will lead to a huge sigh of relief at all levels and I would expect a short-term increase in investment as business reacted to the return of a stable policy environment.

    I would expect Labour to hold an early budget which will begin to shift the burden of taxation away from the incomes of poorer people toward the assets of richer people - this will result in a jump in growth as the poorer people will be spending money which the richer would have saved. Then of course there will be investment in public service, though it will take time for this to produce visible results. And attempts to reduce trade barriers with the EU.

    People understand that it has taken the Tories 14 years to create the mess the UK is in - it won't all be resolved overnight but as long as things appear to be moving in the right direction I suspect Labour will retain the benefit of the doubt for quite some time.
    Nah, they won’t

    Nobody likes Labour and nobody likes starmer

    They’re just desperate to get rid of the Tories and starmer is a boring blank slate on to which they can project ANYTHING

    It’s a clever way to get elected but then when Starmer has to do something - eg immigration and the boats - it will become clear he has no idea very fast. And the backlash will follow that
    Immigration is not very high on Labour voters' list of concerns. But even so I think you may find that the French will be more amenable to find solutions with a Labour government that co-operates with them rather than the Tories who merely shout at them and blame them for not resolving problems which the UK itself created by leaving the Dublin convention with Brexit.
    From the French perspective the boats are a solution. They don't need to look for another.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,098

    Have just read the full quote from Ben Wallace:

    "There comes a moment in time in the electoral cycle where you effectively put on your best suit, you stand up and you march towards the sound of the guns and you get on with it."

    And that's meant to be helpful to Sunak?

    "Tory MPs, Rishi is asking you to lay down your seats. We need a futile gesture at this stage. It will raise the whole tone of the election."
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    CatMan said:
    And yet Man City continue to get away with repeated flouting of the rules over many years. If I were a Forest or Everton fan I would be fuming at this.
    And the new Premier League rules coming in next season will favour the big clubs even more.

    The Conservative track record is one of complete lack of regulation of football over 14 years. Now we have a vague promise to bring in a football regulator some time in the near future. That won't cut it when there will be an election between then and now, for they appear to have deliberately missed the opportunity to act. And in any case a Conservative football regulator would be about as effective as OFWAT.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,366
    Trump can’t raise the money to appeal his New York fraud case

    https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1769730440380748067
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theipaper

    Opinion | Even Rishi’s ring-binder can’t stop the Tory death spiral

    Emotional intelligence is the missing ingredient in the Sunak mix and it is coming to dominate everything, as both voters and MPs ask whether the PM really gets it, writes
    @KateEMcCann

    https://t.co/yDwgIOZrnE

    I don't even put this down to emotional intelligence. If he was willing to propose and enact policies that would actually help people, still being the feckless wet hen he is, I think people would cut him more slack. The issue is that no politician seems up for proposing things people like and know will help them - which would be more government spending on services and increased taxes on those with high levels of wealth and income, alongside sensible regulation to counter the inflation we have seen in the last 6 months. People aren't stupid - they see their electric and gas bills increase at the same time headlines cry how much profit these companies are making. People see their Council Tax go up and local services and roads crumble. They just want things to be less shit.
    Trouble is, taxes are already high

    If you increase taxes on the wealthy they will just fuck off abroad - like me. So many jobs can now be done remotely - and thanks to digital nomad visas other countries are making it highly feasible to move to sunnier climes with much lower tax rates. Ok these new places will have less fascinating cultural diversity and fewer menacing pro Palestinian rallies and you’ve got to put up with nightlife that actually goes on after 11pm but nothing is perfect
    I was in Hackney on Saturday. The pub we were in closed at 12pm, so we walked up the road (ten minutes) to another pub that was playing pounding music until 2am.

    You are out of touch.
    No I’m not. The Times - today



    And those Hackney venues are doomed. Hackney council have just passed laws closing everything at 11 or 12 at most. It only applies to new places now but it will be extended. That’s Khan’s new joyless London and it will only get worse

    “In Hackney, all new venues must close by 11PM Mon-Fri and 12PM at the weekend. No new venues can operate later than this.

    Over time the existing venues will need new licenses and therefore the venues that are open after 11/12 will slowly erode until there is literally none left.”

    https://x.com/lukerobertblack/status/1764372293357048228?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    Again, you are projecting. The venues in Hackney were OPEN on Saturday. I was THERE.

    As for this Times clickbait nonsense, two-seconds on Google Maps shows you how many bars in Soho are open top 12am, 1am, later... (TLDR – the answer is LOTS). I had 'breakfast' at Balans with a cocktail at 3am very recently. On a Thursday. It does close early on a Thursday admittedly – at 5am rather than 6am.

    The closing of London’s nightlife is not an illusion. I’ve seen it with my own eyes. Sadly

    And the Hackney changes are only coming in now: read my comment. It will take a few years for khan to close it down completely. But he will
    Cos he's owned by Islamists?
    Kinabalu how could you of all people imply such a thing about the wonderful mayor of London.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    edited March 18

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    148grss said:

    They just want things to be less shit.

    Which is why Starmer is heading for a landslide
    I agree. I just think people won't give Starmer very long before they expect things to be less shit, and nothing Starmer is currently proposing seems to be aimed at making life less shit - so I expect both a Labour landslide in the next GE and then mass dissatisfaction with them in a year or so.
    No - Labour will be riding high for a year or two at least, the every fact the we have a government which is actually doing some governing and acting in what it believes to be the national interest will lead to a huge sigh of relief at all levels and I would expect a short-term increase in investment as business reacted to the return of a stable policy environment.

    I would expect Labour to hold an early budget which will begin to shift the burden of taxation away from the incomes of poorer people toward the assets of richer people - this will result in a jump in growth as the poorer people will be spending money which the richer would have saved. Then of course there will be investment in public service, though it will take time for this to produce visible results. And attempts to reduce trade barriers with the EU.

    People understand that it has taken the Tories 14 years to create the mess the UK is in - it won't all be resolved overnight but as long as things appear to be moving in the right direction I suspect Labour will retain the benefit of the doubt for quite some time.
    Nah, they won’t

    Nobody likes Labour and nobody likes starmer

    They’re just desperate to get rid of the Tories and starmer is a boring blank slate on to which they can project ANYTHING

    It’s a clever way to get elected but then when Starmer has to do something - eg immigration and the boats - it will become clear he has no idea very fast. And the backlash will follow that
    Immigration is not very high on Labour voters' list of concerns. But even so I think you may find that the French will be more amenable to find solutions with a Labour government that co-operates with them rather than the Tories who merely shout at them and blame them for not resolving problems which the UK itself created by leaving the Dublin convention with Brexit.
    Until about 2018 there weren't any boats, because until then a returns agreement for illegal arrivals was in place within the EU and still applied to the UK. Those trying to arrive on boats knew that they would be caught on arrival or earlier and sent back.
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    kinabalu said:

    Have just read the full quote from Ben Wallace:

    "There comes a moment in time in the electoral cycle where you effectively put on your best suit, you stand up and you march towards the sound of the guns and you get on with it."

    And that's meant to be helpful to Sunak?

    "Tory MPs, Rishi is asking you to lay down your seats. We need a futile gesture at this stage. It will raise the whole tone of the election."
    Why is Wallace saying anything? He won't even be standing in the election.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    CatMan said:
    And yet Man City continue to get away with repeated flouting of the rules over many years. If I were a Forest or Everton fan I would be fuming at this.
    A nice like from @Foxy to this post. I think it's fair to say that Leicester supporters are not particularly fond of their friends from up the A46, but decent football fans can see the injustice in this. See also Chelsea buying players for 100s of millions then putting them all on eight year contracts and 'spreading' the expenditure over almost a decade...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,656
    eek said:

    Trump can’t raise the money to appeal his New York fraud case

    https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1769730440380748067

    Yes it's funny isn't it as he claims to have Billions
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    148grss said:

    They just want things to be less shit.

    Which is why Starmer is heading for a landslide
    I agree. I just think people won't give Starmer very long before they expect things to be less shit, and nothing Starmer is currently proposing seems to be aimed at making life less shit - so I expect both a Labour landslide in the next GE and then mass dissatisfaction with them in a year or so.
    No - Labour will be riding high for a year or two at least, the every fact the we have a government which is actually doing some governing and acting in what it believes to be the national interest will lead to a huge sigh of relief at all levels and I would expect a short-term increase in investment as business reacted to the return of a stable policy environment.

    I would expect Labour to hold an early budget which will begin to shift the burden of taxation away from the incomes of poorer people toward the assets of richer people - this will result in a jump in growth as the poorer people will be spending money which the richer would have saved. Then of course there will be investment in public service, though it will take time for this to produce visible results. And attempts to reduce trade barriers with the EU.

    People understand that it has taken the Tories 14 years to create the mess the UK is in - it won't all be resolved overnight but as long as things appear to be moving in the right direction I suspect Labour will retain the benefit of the doubt for quite some time.
    Nah, they won’t

    Nobody likes Labour and nobody likes starmer

    They’re just desperate to get rid of the Tories and starmer is a boring blank slate on to which they can project ANYTHING

    It’s a clever way to get elected but then when Starmer has to do something - eg immigration and the boats - it will become clear he has no idea very fast. And the backlash will follow that
    Immigration is not very high on Labour voters' list of concerns. But even so I think you may find that the French will be more amenable to find solutions with a Labour government that co-operates with them rather than the Tories who merely shout at them and blame them for not resolving problems which the UK itself created by leaving the Dublin convention with Brexit.
    From the French perspective the boats are a solution. They don't need to look for another.
    But they want to be rid of the squalid camps around Calais, the costs of policing etc etc. We need to engage with them sensibly on this with the thought that there is a better way - that is what the energy and enthusiasm of a new government can bring, away with the tired old certainties, we can do it better (we hope!)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311

    CatMan said:
    And yet Man City continue to get away with repeated flouting of the rules over many years. If I were a Forest or Everton fan I would be fuming at this.
    Based on the offences by Everton and Forest, and the size of their points deductions, we are going to see Citeh docked 20,000 points for their offences...
    Money talks, they will get a slap on the wrist
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,213
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theipaper

    Opinion | Even Rishi’s ring-binder can’t stop the Tory death spiral

    Emotional intelligence is the missing ingredient in the Sunak mix and it is coming to dominate everything, as both voters and MPs ask whether the PM really gets it, writes
    @KateEMcCann

    https://t.co/yDwgIOZrnE

    I don't even put this down to emotional intelligence. If he was willing to propose and enact policies that would actually help people, still being the feckless wet hen he is, I think people would cut him more slack. The issue is that no politician seems up for proposing things people like and know will help them - which would be more government spending on services and increased taxes on those with high levels of wealth and income, alongside sensible regulation to counter the inflation we have seen in the last 6 months. People aren't stupid - they see their electric and gas bills increase at the same time headlines cry how much profit these companies are making. People see their Council Tax go up and local services and roads crumble. They just want things to be less shit.
    Trouble is, taxes are already high

    If you increase taxes on the wealthy they will just fuck off abroad - like me. So many jobs can now be done remotely - and thanks to digital nomad visas other countries are making it highly feasible to move to sunnier climes with much lower tax rates. Ok these new places will have less fascinating cultural diversity and fewer menacing pro Palestinian rallies and you’ve got to put up with nightlife that actually goes on after 11pm but nothing is perfect
    I was in Hackney on Saturday. The pub we were in closed at 12pm, so we walked up the road (ten minutes) to another pub that was playing pounding music until 2am.

    You are out of touch.
    No I’m not. The Times - today



    And those Hackney venues are doomed. Hackney council have just passed laws closing everything at 11 or 12 at most. It only applies to new places now but it will be extended. That’s Khan’s new joyless London and it will only get worse

    “In Hackney, all new venues must close by 11PM Mon-Fri and 12PM at the weekend. No new venues can operate later than this.

    Over time the existing venues will need new licenses and therefore the venues that are open after 11/12 will slowly erode until there is literally none left.”

    https://x.com/lukerobertblack/status/1764372293357048228?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    Again, you are projecting. The venues in Hackney were OPEN on Saturday. I was THERE.

    As for this Times clickbait nonsense, two-seconds on Google Maps shows you how many bars in Soho are open top 12am, 1am, later... (TLDR – the answer is LOTS). I had 'breakfast' at Balans with a cocktail at 3am very recently. On a Thursday. It does close early on a Thursday admittedly – at 5am rather than 6am.

    The closing of London’s nightlife is not an illusion. I’ve seen it with my own eyes. Sadly

    And the Hackney changes are only coming in now: read my comment. It will take a few years for khan to close it down completely. But he will
    Cos he's owned by Islamists?
    Is that the Jewish Islamaphobic Islamists, the Jewish Antisemitic Islamists, or the Opus Dei Masonic Islamists?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    eek said:

    Trump can’t raise the money to appeal his New York fraud case

    https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1769730440380748067

    Yes it's funny isn't it as he claims to have Billions
    Lock him up
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theipaper

    Opinion | Even Rishi’s ring-binder can’t stop the Tory death spiral

    Emotional intelligence is the missing ingredient in the Sunak mix and it is coming to dominate everything, as both voters and MPs ask whether the PM really gets it, writes
    @KateEMcCann

    https://t.co/yDwgIOZrnE

    I don't even put this down to emotional intelligence. If he was willing to propose and enact policies that would actually help people, still being the feckless wet hen he is, I think people would cut him more slack. The issue is that no politician seems up for proposing things people like and know will help them - which would be more government spending on services and increased taxes on those with high levels of wealth and income, alongside sensible regulation to counter the inflation we have seen in the last 6 months. People aren't stupid - they see their electric and gas bills increase at the same time headlines cry how much profit these companies are making. People see their Council Tax go up and local services and roads crumble. They just want things to be less shit.
    Trouble is, taxes are already high

    If you increase taxes on the wealthy they will just fuck off abroad - like me. So many jobs can now be done remotely - and thanks to digital nomad visas other countries are making it highly feasible to move to sunnier climes with much lower tax rates. Ok these new places will have less fascinating cultural diversity and fewer menacing pro Palestinian rallies and you’ve got to put up with nightlife that actually goes on after 11pm but nothing is perfect
    The thing is if you are going to live in a declining chaotic country you might as well live in one with good weather. And there are plenty of such countries around.
    Unfortunately this is exactly right

    And Cambodia has 0% tax, amazing food, safe streets, and - far from declining - is brimming with optimism. It will be the fastest growing country in south east asia this year (as it was in many years before Covid)

    The emotional difference between a country with zero growth (or worse, like Britain, declining income per capita) and a country with 6-7% growth like Cambodia - is quite profound

    People are obviously happier in the growing country

  • "Nobody likes Labour."

    I see the person who said Liz Truss would surprise on the upside is back telling us what the public thinks.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,311
    Truman said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Donkeys said:

    Donkeys said:

    Truman said:

    On the topic of Putins "popularity" russian gdp per head is up 11 fold between 1999 and 2024. Thats a massive increase in standard of living at a time when the uk has stagnated.

    per annum per capita growth for a quarter of a century. Impressive.
    Do you get double the pay for using two logins at once?
    I was joking! It's obvious that standards of living in Russia haven't increased by 10% each year for 25 years.
    It's almost like Russia benefited massively from the commodities boom of the last quarter century.

    With that said, Outside Moscow and St.Petersburg, there's very little evidence of prosperity in Russia. Most of rural, and small city, Russia is dirt poor, with little commerce, and few prospects. Much of the country still has dirt tracks rather than paved roads.
    Hmmmm

    Not sure that’s completely true

    Russia is vast and varied. There are definitely huge regions which are shockingly poor

    But also unexpected areas of prosperity - the commodity rich north or the pacific coast or down south around the Black Sea - they can be rather nice
    Sure, there are little islands of prosperity. But most of Russia makes Albania look prosperous.

    One of the fascinating things I learned early on in the Ukraine war, was that many Russian conscripts were shocked at how wealthy Ukraine felt, and how that was completely at odds with what they'd been told.

    The looting of white goods etc would support that observation. It shows what is concealed by mean GDP stats, and also how greedy the Russian kleptocracy is.
    Ive just read this on reddit. This guy says rural russia and ukraine dont really differ in prosperity.

    I've been to Russia and Ukraine every year until 2014 and they don't really differ in prosperity or lack thereof.

    Speaking from my own experience and my relatives (Kalmykia is a rural place with infrastructure that is lacking 😅): Most people in rural Russia own an own house (they bought or built it back during the Soviet Union times). The people don't starve because they have their own gardens and kettle that cover their basic needs. Kids have toys (cheap Chinese products are available even in rural areas). All people I know have a washing machine (it may not be the newest model but who cares if it's still functioning?). Every household I know has at least one car (it's rather a Lada than a Mercedes, but Mercedes cars aren't built for the Russian "outback" anyway, not even the SUVs 😅, the "richer" people have a Toyota). All people I know have at least one smartphone and tablet/laptop per household (usually every family member has a smartphone), including internet connection. Nutella is a tricky one (rural villages are probably not profitable for them, but there's coca cola, sprite, fanta, etc.). There are several supermarket (franchise) and some local stores. Most people have a flat TV (some have an old fashioned TV. DVD/blue-ray player, music player, etc.

    Based on my experience, I'd say, those news reports about Russian soldiers stealing daily goods are either propaganda or some nasty individuals (in large groups?). There's also a chance that the army is recruiting former criminals (that wouldn't be a new thing in Russian history?).

    If my area would steal something it would be asphalt (don't drive to Elista at night, and only drive slowly during daytime 😂). I've been to number of Oblasts in Russia (all in Europe), but Kalmykian roads are by far the worst. You don't need signs to tell that you've left Rostovskaya Oblast and have entered Kalmykia, because there's literally a clear cut difference in road quality. It goes from a normal street where you can drive 100 km/h to watch out, there are holes, don't go faster than 30 km/h! in less than 10 m 😂 (I'm not exaggerating).
    And the band played believe if you like.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    148grss said:

    They just want things to be less shit.

    Which is why Starmer is heading for a landslide
    I agree. I just think people won't give Starmer very long before they expect things to be less shit, and nothing Starmer is currently proposing seems to be aimed at making life less shit - so I expect both a Labour landslide in the next GE and then mass dissatisfaction with them in a year or so.
    No - Labour will be riding high for a year or two at least, the every fact the we have a government which is actually doing some governing and acting in what it believes to be the national interest will lead to a huge sigh of relief at all levels and I would expect a short-term increase in investment as business reacted to the return of a stable policy environment.

    I would expect Labour to hold an early budget which will begin to shift the burden of taxation away from the incomes of poorer people toward the assets of richer people - this will result in a jump in growth as the poorer people will be spending money which the richer would have saved. Then of course there will be investment in public service, though it will take time for this to produce visible results. And attempts to reduce trade barriers with the EU.

    People understand that it has taken the Tories 14 years to create the mess the UK is in - it won't all be resolved overnight but as long as things appear to be moving in the right direction I suspect Labour will retain the benefit of the doubt for quite some time.
    Nah, they won’t

    Nobody likes Labour and nobody likes starmer

    They’re just desperate to get rid of the Tories and starmer is a boring blank slate on to which they can project ANYTHING

    It’s a clever way to get elected but then when Starmer has to do something - eg immigration and the boats - it will become clear he has no idea very fast. And the backlash will follow that
    Immigration is not very high on Labour voters' list of concerns. But even so I think you may find that the French will be more amenable to find solutions with a Labour government that co-operates with them rather than the Tories who merely shout at them and blame them for not resolving problems which the UK itself created by leaving the Dublin convention with Brexit.
    lol yeah. That’s Starmer’s brilliant solution. “Be nice to the French”

    Spoiler: it won’t work

    And the idea these new Labour voters “don’t care about immigration” is, I suggest, about to be severely tested. And found wanting
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theipaper

    Opinion | Even Rishi’s ring-binder can’t stop the Tory death spiral

    Emotional intelligence is the missing ingredient in the Sunak mix and it is coming to dominate everything, as both voters and MPs ask whether the PM really gets it, writes
    @KateEMcCann

    https://t.co/yDwgIOZrnE

    I don't even put this down to emotional intelligence. If he was willing to propose and enact policies that would actually help people, still being the feckless wet hen he is, I think people would cut him more slack. The issue is that no politician seems up for proposing things people like and know will help them - which would be more government spending on services and increased taxes on those with high levels of wealth and income, alongside sensible regulation to counter the inflation we have seen in the last 6 months. People aren't stupid - they see their electric and gas bills increase at the same time headlines cry how much profit these companies are making. People see their Council Tax go up and local services and roads crumble. They just want things to be less shit.
    Trouble is, taxes are already high

    If you increase taxes on the wealthy they will just fuck off abroad - like me. So many jobs can now be done remotely - and thanks to digital nomad visas other countries are making it highly feasible to move to sunnier climes with much lower tax rates. Ok these new places will have less fascinating cultural diversity and fewer menacing pro Palestinian rallies and you’ve got to put up with nightlife that actually goes on after 11pm but nothing is perfect
    The thing is if you are going to live in a declining chaotic country you might as well live in one with good weather. And there are plenty of such countries around.
    On the subject of declining, chaotic countries, how are you getting on in Putin's Russia?
  • Leon said:

    lol yeah. That’s Starmer’s brilliant solution. “Be nice to the French”

    Spoiler: it won’t work

    And the idea these new Labour voters “don’t care about immigration” is, I suggest, about to be severely tested. And found wanting

    You are literally the most ignorant poster here.

    You've been found out for knowing nothing about AI and are now back to bullshitting. It is exhausting.

    If anyone is interested, my ignore script is ready for prime time - feel free to use it against me if you wish but I will post the link to GreasyFork
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,321
    @Truman

    'If my area would steal something it would be asphalt (don't drive to Elista at night, and only drive slowly during daytime 😂). I've been to number of Oblasts in Russia (all in Europe), but Kalmykian roads are by far the worst. You don't need signs to tell that you've left Rostovskaya Oblast and have entered Kalmykia, because there's literally a clear cut difference in road quality. It goes from a normal street where you can drive 100 km/h to watch out, there are holes, don't go faster than 30 km/h! in less than 10 m 😂 (I'm not exaggerating). '


    Comrade

    You will experience exactly the same abrupt change in driving from Worcestershire into Gloucestershire.

    I am not exaggerating.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,889
    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theipaper

    Opinion | Even Rishi’s ring-binder can’t stop the Tory death spiral

    Emotional intelligence is the missing ingredient in the Sunak mix and it is coming to dominate everything, as both voters and MPs ask whether the PM really gets it, writes
    @KateEMcCann

    https://t.co/yDwgIOZrnE

    I don't even put this down to emotional intelligence. If he was willing to propose and enact policies that would actually help people, still being the feckless wet hen he is, I think people would cut him more slack. The issue is that no politician seems up for proposing things people like and know will help them - which would be more government spending on services and increased taxes on those with high levels of wealth and income, alongside sensible regulation to counter the inflation we have seen in the last 6 months. People aren't stupid - they see their electric and gas bills increase at the same time headlines cry how much profit these companies are making. People see their Council Tax go up and local services and roads crumble. They just want things to be less shit.
    Trouble is, taxes are already high

    If you increase taxes on the wealthy they will just fuck off abroad - like me. So many jobs can now be done remotely - and thanks to digital nomad visas other countries are making it highly feasible to move to sunnier climes with much lower tax rates. Ok these new places will have less fascinating cultural diversity and fewer menacing pro Palestinian rallies and you’ve got to put up with nightlife that actually goes on after 11pm but nothing is perfect
    Taxes on high incomes are not that high, especially for those marginal few making millions a year. And for those people, yes they can go abroad if they wish, but they almost certainly won't wish because they work here and London is the cultural capital of the English speaking world.

    As well as that we could do some innovative wealth taxes - land value taxes, taxes on second and third homes, taxes on certain trading practices that magic money out of 1s and 0s, etc. At the end of the day money needs to move more efficiently than it currently is, and rich people are sitting on money and assets rather than spending it in the economy. If you give poorer people money, they'll spend - which in many instances will grow the economy without causing inflation (the recent bout of inflation being caused by supply chain issues rather than too much cash being in the economy). Manage that, and you'll get what every capitalist should supposedly want - happy workers and a good market. It will just lower some top level profits somewhat.
    You don’t realise how mobile people have become. People have worked out that, not only can they work from home, they can work from somewhere really sunny

    A prescient Spectator article from 2022

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-work-from-home-when-you-can-work-from-paradise/


    And is London still that buzzing global capital? I’d like to think so, it’s my home and I own property there. I’m just not sure any more

    Btw you’ll be displeased to know I agree with you on starmer. He will get a massive majority but the mood will fiercely turn against him when it becomes obvious he has no more money and no bright ideas and nothing will improve quickly, if at all

    And in some ways - Wokeness - he will be even worse than the Tories and will immediately annoy lots of people
    Only if you work for a multi national company with a vacant place in an office in a city in sunnier climes can you work full time abroad.

    Most UK based companies require you to be based in the UK still even if you wfh half the time
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    148grss said:

    They just want things to be less shit.

    Which is why Starmer is heading for a landslide
    I agree. I just think people won't give Starmer very long before they expect things to be less shit, and nothing Starmer is currently proposing seems to be aimed at making life less shit - so I expect both a Labour landslide in the next GE and then mass dissatisfaction with them in a year or so.
    No - Labour will be riding high for a year or two at least, the every fact the we have a government which is actually doing some governing and acting in what it believes to be the national interest will lead to a huge sigh of relief at all levels and I would expect a short-term increase in investment as business reacted to the return of a stable policy environment.

    I would expect Labour to hold an early budget which will begin to shift the burden of taxation away from the incomes of poorer people toward the assets of richer people - this will result in a jump in growth as the poorer people will be spending money which the richer would have saved. Then of course there will be investment in public service, though it will take time for this to produce visible results. And attempts to reduce trade barriers with the EU.

    People understand that it has taken the Tories 14 years to create the mess the UK is in - it won't all be resolved overnight but as long as things appear to be moving in the right direction I suspect Labour will retain the benefit of the doubt for quite some time.
    Nah, they won’t

    Nobody likes Labour and nobody likes starmer

    They’re just desperate to get rid of the Tories and starmer is a boring blank slate on to which they can project ANYTHING

    It’s a clever way to get elected but then when Starmer has to do something - eg immigration and the boats - it will become clear he has no idea very fast. And the backlash will follow that
    Immigration is not very high on Labour voters' list of concerns. But even so I think you may find that the French will be more amenable to find solutions with a Labour government that co-operates with them rather than the Tories who merely shout at them and blame them for not resolving problems which the UK itself created by leaving the Dublin convention with Brexit.
    From the French perspective the boats are a solution. They don't need to look for another.
    But they want to be rid of the squalid camps around Calais, the costs of policing etc etc. We need to engage with them sensibly on this with the thought that there is a better way - that is what the energy and enthusiasm of a new government can bring, away with the tired old certainties, we can do it better (we hope!)
    Ahahahahahaha

    Do you honestly believe this utter shite??

    Starmer will be dealing with a lame duck macron menaced by a surging Le Pen (about to thrash him in the Euro elections)

    He will have absolutely zero political room to be nice to Britain on migrants legal and illegal. None at all. Nil. Nada. Absolutement fuck all

    There won’t be any new arrangement that will leave one more extra migrant in France than would otherwise be the case. Unless we give them one billion per person etc
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,098
    eek said:

    Trump can’t raise the money to appeal his New York fraud case

    https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1769730440380748067

    Hasn't he asked his pal Musk?
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,513
    Donkeys said:

    Next PM, Betfair

    Starmer 1.3
    Mordaunt 9
    Badenoch 30
    Farage 38
    Cameron 85
    Braverman 90

    Next Tory leader, Betfair

    Badenoch 4.5
    Mordaunt 5.5
    Braverman 11
    Cleverly 12
    Patel 15.5
    Jenrick 24
    Cameron 26
    Farage 28
    Johnson 34

    Who on earth would bet on Patel at a price of under 500?

    Of the names of those "contenders", if Mordaunt and Cleverly were to lose their seats, but she didn't, she would be (relatively) the most "centrist" candidate.
  • Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    148grss said:

    They just want things to be less shit.

    Which is why Starmer is heading for a landslide
    I agree. I just think people won't give Starmer very long before they expect things to be less shit, and nothing Starmer is currently proposing seems to be aimed at making life less shit - so I expect both a Labour landslide in the next GE and then mass dissatisfaction with them in a year or so.
    No - Labour will be riding high for a year or two at least, the every fact the we have a government which is actually doing some governing and acting in what it believes to be the national interest will lead to a huge sigh of relief at all levels and I would expect a short-term increase in investment as business reacted to the return of a stable policy environment.

    I would expect Labour to hold an early budget which will begin to shift the burden of taxation away from the incomes of poorer people toward the assets of richer people - this will result in a jump in growth as the poorer people will be spending money which the richer would have saved. Then of course there will be investment in public service, though it will take time for this to produce visible results. And attempts to reduce trade barriers with the EU.

    People understand that it has taken the Tories 14 years to create the mess the UK is in - it won't all be resolved overnight but as long as things appear to be moving in the right direction I suspect Labour will retain the benefit of the doubt for quite some time.
    Nah, they won’t

    Nobody likes Labour and nobody likes starmer

    They’re just desperate to get rid of the Tories and starmer is a boring blank slate on to which they can project ANYTHING

    It’s a clever way to get elected but then when Starmer has to do something - eg immigration and the boats - it will become clear he has no idea very fast. And the backlash will follow that
    Immigration is not very high on Labour voters' list of concerns. But even so I think you may find that the French will be more amenable to find solutions with a Labour government that co-operates with them rather than the Tories who merely shout at them and blame them for not resolving problems which the UK itself created by leaving the Dublin convention with Brexit.
    Until about 2018 there weren't any boats, because until then a returns agreement for illegal arrivals was in place within the EU and still applied to the UK. Those trying to arrive on boats knew that they would be caught on arrival or earlier and sent back.
    Labour is evidently the much tougher party on immigration. The evidence is there for all to see. We have two governments both which have lasted almost the same time - only under one has immigration got completely out of control. And this is having LEFT the EU, which apparently was the problem.
  • DonkeysDonkeys Posts: 723
    eek said:

    Trump can’t raise the money to appeal his New York fraud case

    https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1769730440380748067

    After six business bankruptcies, is a personal one in the offing?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,767

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theipaper

    Opinion | Even Rishi’s ring-binder can’t stop the Tory death spiral

    Emotional intelligence is the missing ingredient in the Sunak mix and it is coming to dominate everything, as both voters and MPs ask whether the PM really gets it, writes
    @KateEMcCann

    https://t.co/yDwgIOZrnE

    I don't even put this down to emotional intelligence. If he was willing to propose and enact policies that would actually help people, still being the feckless wet hen he is, I think people would cut him more slack. The issue is that no politician seems up for proposing things people like and know will help them - which would be more government spending on services and increased taxes on those with high levels of wealth and income, alongside sensible regulation to counter the inflation we have seen in the last 6 months. People aren't stupid - they see their electric and gas bills increase at the same time headlines cry how much profit these companies are making. People see their Council Tax go up and local services and roads crumble. They just want things to be less shit.
    Trouble is, taxes are already high

    If you increase taxes on the wealthy they will just fuck off abroad - like me. So many jobs can now be done remotely - and thanks to digital nomad visas other countries are making it highly feasible to move to sunnier climes with much lower tax rates. Ok these new places will have less fascinating cultural diversity and fewer menacing pro Palestinian rallies and you’ve got to put up with nightlife that actually goes on after 11pm but nothing is perfect
    I was in Hackney on Saturday. The pub we were in closed at 12pm, so we walked up the road (ten minutes) to another pub that was playing pounding music until 2am.

    You are out of touch.
    No I’m not. The Times - today



    And those Hackney venues are doomed. Hackney council have just passed laws closing everything at 11 or 12 at most. It only applies to new places now but it will be extended. That’s Khan’s new joyless London and it will only get worse

    “In Hackney, all new venues must close by 11PM Mon-Fri and 12PM at the weekend. No new venues can operate later than this.

    Over time the existing venues will need new licenses and therefore the venues that are open after 11/12 will slowly erode until there is literally none left.”

    https://x.com/lukerobertblack/status/1764372293357048228?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    Again, you are projecting. The venues in Hackney were OPEN on Saturday. I was THERE.

    As for this Times clickbait nonsense, two-seconds on Google Maps shows you how many bars in Soho are open top 12am, 1am, later... (TLDR – the answer is LOTS). I had 'breakfast' at Balans with a cocktail at 3am very recently. On a Thursday. It does close early on a Thursday admittedly – at 5am rather than 6am.

    And what have Hackney Council licensing decisions got to do with the London Mayor? You'd be as well to blame it on Rishi Sunak. Neither of them are in charge of Borough level local government.
    Hackney has gentrified massively in recent years and also seen a lot of new housing built in areas that used to be home to a vibrant (ie noisy and messy) night time culture. It's not surprising that there's pressure from residents to cool it down. The best nightlife is south of the river now. If Leon wants to stay out late he should go out in Peckham, he can easily find places where he can dance and drink until dawn.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    Leon said:

    Truman said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theipaper

    Opinion | Even Rishi’s ring-binder can’t stop the Tory death spiral

    Emotional intelligence is the missing ingredient in the Sunak mix and it is coming to dominate everything, as both voters and MPs ask whether the PM really gets it, writes
    @KateEMcCann

    https://t.co/yDwgIOZrnE

    I don't even put this down to emotional intelligence. If he was willing to propose and enact policies that would actually help people, still being the feckless wet hen he is, I think people would cut him more slack. The issue is that no politician seems up for proposing things people like and know will help them - which would be more government spending on services and increased taxes on those with high levels of wealth and income, alongside sensible regulation to counter the inflation we have seen in the last 6 months. People aren't stupid - they see their electric and gas bills increase at the same time headlines cry how much profit these companies are making. People see their Council Tax go up and local services and roads crumble. They just want things to be less shit.
    Trouble is, taxes are already high

    If you increase taxes on the wealthy they will just fuck off abroad - like me. So many jobs can now be done remotely - and thanks to digital nomad visas other countries are making it highly feasible to move to sunnier climes with much lower tax rates. Ok these new places will have less fascinating cultural diversity and fewer menacing pro Palestinian rallies and you’ve got to put up with nightlife that actually goes on after 11pm but nothing is perfect
    The thing is if you are going to live in a declining chaotic country you might as well live in one with good weather. And there are plenty of such countries around.
    Unfortunately this is exactly right

    And Cambodia has 0% tax, amazing food, safe streets, and - far from declining - is brimming with optimism. It will be the fastest growing country in south east asia this year (as it was in many years before Covid)

    The emotional difference between a country with zero growth (or worse, like Britain, declining income per capita) and a country with 6-7% growth like Cambodia - is quite profound

    People are obviously happier in the growing country

    Yes the atmosphere is gray and heavy in england. It wears people down. I see it in the workers round here they are working slower and less enthusiastically and dont chat like they used to.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    .
    eek said:

    Trump can’t raise the money to appeal his New York fraud case

    https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1769730440380748067

    I don't normally have any sympathy for Trump. The finding against him doesn't surprise me in this case, but the fine seems excessive. The sheer size of the fine presumably prevents him posting bail and appealing the conviction.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,213
    a
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theipaper

    Opinion | Even Rishi’s ring-binder can’t stop the Tory death spiral

    Emotional intelligence is the missing ingredient in the Sunak mix and it is coming to dominate everything, as both voters and MPs ask whether the PM really gets it, writes
    @KateEMcCann

    https://t.co/yDwgIOZrnE

    I don't even put this down to emotional intelligence. If he was willing to propose and enact policies that would actually help people, still being the feckless wet hen he is, I think people would cut him more slack. The issue is that no politician seems up for proposing things people like and know will help them - which would be more government spending on services and increased taxes on those with high levels of wealth and income, alongside sensible regulation to counter the inflation we have seen in the last 6 months. People aren't stupid - they see their electric and gas bills increase at the same time headlines cry how much profit these companies are making. People see their Council Tax go up and local services and roads crumble. They just want things to be less shit.
    Trouble is, taxes are already high

    If you increase taxes on the wealthy they will just fuck off abroad - like me. So many jobs can now be done remotely - and thanks to digital nomad visas other countries are making it highly feasible to move to sunnier climes with much lower tax rates. Ok these new places will have less fascinating cultural diversity and fewer menacing pro Palestinian rallies and you’ve got to put up with nightlife that actually goes on after 11pm but nothing is perfect
    Taxes on high incomes are not that high, especially for those marginal few making millions a year. And for those people, yes they can go abroad if they wish, but they almost certainly won't wish because they work here and London is the cultural capital of the English speaking world.

    As well as that we could do some innovative wealth taxes - land value taxes, taxes on second and third homes, taxes on certain trading practices that magic money out of 1s and 0s, etc. At the end of the day money needs to move more efficiently than it currently is, and rich people are sitting on money and assets rather than spending it in the economy. If you give poorer people money, they'll spend - which in many instances will grow the economy without causing inflation (the recent bout of inflation being caused by supply chain issues rather than too much cash being in the economy). Manage that, and you'll get what every capitalist should supposedly want - happy workers and a good market. It will just lower some top level profits somewhat.
    You don’t realise how mobile people have become. People have worked out that, not only can they work from home, they can work from somewhere really sunny

    A prescient Spectator article from 2022

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-work-from-home-when-you-can-work-from-paradise/


    And is London still that buzzing global capital? I’d like to think so, it’s my home and I own property there. I’m just not sure any more

    Btw you’ll be displeased to know I agree with you on starmer. He will get a massive majority but the mood will fiercely turn against him when it becomes obvious he has no more money and no bright ideas and nothing will improve quickly, if at all

    And in some ways - Wokeness - he will be even worse than the Tories and will immediately annoy lots of people
    Only if you work for a multi national company with a vacant place in an office in a city in sunnier climes can you work full time abroad.

    Most UK based companies require you to be based in the UK still even if you wfh half the time
    Not so much office space in country X as the tax/work permit rules about bringing an employee into the county to work there.

    Most countries have rules for people coming to visit their own company for x weeks - no tax or work permits required. After that, they have to make a defined arrangement with the tax/immigration authorities.

    And even then, there are data security rules to be considered. Just because a company has offices all over the place doesn't mean that you can export data to just anywhere.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,098
    Donkeys said:

    kinabalu said:

    Have just read the full quote from Ben Wallace:

    "There comes a moment in time in the electoral cycle where you effectively put on your best suit, you stand up and you march towards the sound of the guns and you get on with it."

    And that's meant to be helpful to Sunak?

    "Tory MPs, Rishi is asking you to lay down your seats. We need a futile gesture at this stage. It will raise the whole tone of the election."
    Why is Wallace saying anything? He won't even be standing in the election.
    Exactly. That's why it reminded me of the Peter Cook sketch. He wasn't going to be the one "popping up in a crate and taking a shufty".
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620
    Bad news for that Sean T who used tell us about his exploits with hookers.

    Our recent survey showed the extent of stigma against sex workers, but what about those who have paid for sex?

    61% of Britons say they would be unwilling to date someone they knew had paid for sex - 74% had said they would not date a former prostitute

    Britons are also very reluctant to date someone who is a subscriber of sexual content on platforms like OnlyFans (64%), particularly if they interact with the creator (74%) - in marked contrast to the 42% who would be bothered by a partner watching porn


    https://x.com/yougov/status/1769674580845563913?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,098
    Truman said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theipaper

    Opinion | Even Rishi’s ring-binder can’t stop the Tory death spiral

    Emotional intelligence is the missing ingredient in the Sunak mix and it is coming to dominate everything, as both voters and MPs ask whether the PM really gets it, writes
    @KateEMcCann

    https://t.co/yDwgIOZrnE

    I don't even put this down to emotional intelligence. If he was willing to propose and enact policies that would actually help people, still being the feckless wet hen he is, I think people would cut him more slack. The issue is that no politician seems up for proposing things people like and know will help them - which would be more government spending on services and increased taxes on those with high levels of wealth and income, alongside sensible regulation to counter the inflation we have seen in the last 6 months. People aren't stupid - they see their electric and gas bills increase at the same time headlines cry how much profit these companies are making. People see their Council Tax go up and local services and roads crumble. They just want things to be less shit.
    Trouble is, taxes are already high

    If you increase taxes on the wealthy they will just fuck off abroad - like me. So many jobs can now be done remotely - and thanks to digital nomad visas other countries are making it highly feasible to move to sunnier climes with much lower tax rates. Ok these new places will have less fascinating cultural diversity and fewer menacing pro Palestinian rallies and you’ve got to put up with nightlife that actually goes on after 11pm but nothing is perfect
    I was in Hackney on Saturday. The pub we were in closed at 12pm, so we walked up the road (ten minutes) to another pub that was playing pounding music until 2am.

    You are out of touch.
    No I’m not. The Times - today



    And those Hackney venues are doomed. Hackney council have just passed laws closing everything at 11 or 12 at most. It only applies to new places now but it will be extended. That’s Khan’s new joyless London and it will only get worse

    “In Hackney, all new venues must close by 11PM Mon-Fri and 12PM at the weekend. No new venues can operate later than this.

    Over time the existing venues will need new licenses and therefore the venues that are open after 11/12 will slowly erode until there is literally none left.”

    https://x.com/lukerobertblack/status/1764372293357048228?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    Again, you are projecting. The venues in Hackney were OPEN on Saturday. I was THERE.

    As for this Times clickbait nonsense, two-seconds on Google Maps shows you how many bars in Soho are open top 12am, 1am, later... (TLDR – the answer is LOTS). I had 'breakfast' at Balans with a cocktail at 3am very recently. On a Thursday. It does close early on a Thursday admittedly – at 5am rather than 6am.

    The closing of London’s nightlife is not an illusion. I’ve seen it with my own eyes. Sadly

    And the Hackney changes are only coming in now: read my comment. It will take a few years for khan to close it down completely. But he will
    Cos he's owned by Islamists?
    Kinabalu how could you of all people imply such a thing about the wonderful mayor of London.
    The MUSLIM major of London. Nudge nudge.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    malcolmg said:

    Truman said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Donkeys said:

    Donkeys said:

    Truman said:

    On the topic of Putins "popularity" russian gdp per head is up 11 fold between 1999 and 2024. Thats a massive increase in standard of living at a time when the uk has stagnated.

    per annum per capita growth for a quarter of a century. Impressive.
    Do you get double the pay for using two logins at once?
    I was joking! It's obvious that standards of living in Russia haven't increased by 10% each year for 25 years.
    It's almost like Russia benefited massively from the commodities boom of the last quarter century.

    With that said, Outside Moscow and St.Petersburg, there's very little evidence of prosperity in Russia. Most of rural, and small city, Russia is dirt poor, with little commerce, and few prospects. Much of the country still has dirt tracks rather than paved roads.
    Hmmmm

    Not sure that’s completely true

    Russia is vast and varied. There are definitely huge regions which are shockingly poor

    But also unexpected areas of prosperity - the commodity rich north or the pacific coast or down south around the Black Sea - they can be rather nice
    Sure, there are little islands of prosperity. But most of Russia makes Albania look prosperous.

    One of the fascinating things I learned early on in the Ukraine war, was that many Russian conscripts were shocked at how wealthy Ukraine felt, and how that was completely at odds with what they'd been told.

    The looting of white goods etc would support that observation. It shows what is concealed by mean GDP stats, and also how greedy the Russian kleptocracy is.
    Ive just read this on reddit. This guy says rural russia and ukraine dont really differ in prosperity.

    I've been to Russia and Ukraine every year until 2014 and they don't really differ in prosperity or lack thereof.

    Speaking from my own experience and my relatives (Kalmykia is a rural place with infrastructure that is lacking 😅): Most people in rural Russia own an own house (they bought or built it back during the Soviet Union times). The people don't starve because they have their own gardens and kettle that cover their basic needs. Kids have toys (cheap Chinese products are available even in rural areas). All people I know have a washing machine (it may not be the newest model but who cares if it's still functioning?). Every household I know has at least one car (it's rather a Lada than a Mercedes, but Mercedes cars aren't built for the Russian "outback" anyway, not even the SUVs 😅, the "richer" people have a Toyota). All people I know have at least one smartphone and tablet/laptop per household (usually every family member has a smartphone), including internet connection. Nutella is a tricky one (rural villages are probably not profitable for them, but there's coca cola, sprite, fanta, etc.). There are several supermarket (franchise) and some local stores. Most people have a flat TV (some have an old fashioned TV. DVD/blue-ray player, music player, etc.

    Based on my experience, I'd say, those news reports about Russian soldiers stealing daily goods are either propaganda or some nasty individuals (in large groups?). There's also a chance that the army is recruiting former criminals (that wouldn't be a new thing in Russian history?).

    If my area would steal something it would be asphalt (don't drive to Elista at night, and only drive slowly during daytime 😂). I've been to number of Oblasts in Russia (all in Europe), but Kalmykian roads are by far the worst. You don't need signs to tell that you've left Rostovskaya Oblast and have entered Kalmykia, because there's literally a clear cut difference in road quality. It goes from a normal street where you can drive 100 km/h to watch out, there are holes, don't go faster than 30 km/h! in less than 10 m 😂 (I'm not exaggerating).
    And the band played believe if you like.
    He’s completely right

    My guess is @truman might be that very rare and precious thing. A mildly pro-Putin Russian possibly living in the west - maybe even in the UK (dunno) - and real, and apparently sane

    Let’s not scare him away, he’s interesting. Compare him to the wibbling, infantile gibberish of @BatteryCorrectHorse for instance

    His description of provincial Russia exactly matches my experiences. Some regions are almost African-poor in appearance - dirt roads, very basic infra. Others are more like poorer bits of Eastern Europe - Romania or Bulgaria. A few bigger cities could be in Poland or Hungary

    Moscow and st Petersburg sometimes look like london or Paris but with less crime
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,984

    @Truman

    'If my area would steal something it would be asphalt (don't drive to Elista at night, and only drive slowly during daytime 😂). I've been to number of Oblasts in Russia (all in Europe), but Kalmykian roads are by far the worst. You don't need signs to tell that you've left Rostovskaya Oblast and have entered Kalmykia, because there's literally a clear cut difference in road quality. It goes from a normal street where you can drive 100 km/h to watch out, there are holes, don't go faster than 30 km/h! in less than 10 m 😂 (I'm not exaggerating). '


    Comrade

    You will experience exactly the same abrupt change in driving from Worcestershire into Gloucestershire.

    I am not exaggerating.

    Infrastructure borders are great fun as little amusing diversions on one's travels. A few notable intra-developed world examples:

    - Ontario : Quebec - from smooth road to potholed death trap (at least when I was there)
    - France : Switzerland - completely different road sign fonts and colour scheme
    - Germany : Denmark - from no speed limit to strict limits and speed cameras everywhere
    - France : Spain - old stone farmhouses to crumbling concrete tower blocks
    - Tennessee : Alabama - neat white houses with picket fences, immaculate lawns, churches and horses to down at heel trailers and cotton farms
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239

    Bad news for that Sean T who used tell us about his exploits with hookers.

    Our recent survey showed the extent of stigma against sex workers, but what about those who have paid for sex?

    61% of Britons say they would be unwilling to date someone they knew had paid for sex - 74% had said they would not date a former prostitute

    Britons are also very reluctant to date someone who is a subscriber of sexual content on platforms like OnlyFans (64%), particularly if they interact with the creator (74%) - in marked contrast to the 42% who would be bothered by a partner watching porn


    https://x.com/yougov/status/1769674580845563913?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    I dunno about this dubious @seant character but if i was him I suspect the Groucho Marx rule applies here

    “I wouldn’t want to fuck a woman who is so uptight she gets upset that I’ve fucked 300 hookers”

    He’s a known libertine, isn’t he? Writes about his drug taking and other sordid experiences around the world? He’s not gonna get on with a nun
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,656

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    148grss said:

    They just want things to be less shit.

    Which is why Starmer is heading for a landslide
    I agree. I just think people won't give Starmer very long before they expect things to be less shit, and nothing Starmer is currently proposing seems to be aimed at making life less shit - so I expect both a Labour landslide in the next GE and then mass dissatisfaction with them in a year or so.
    The PB Tory-Lefties seem to swing daily from:

    • SKS is a Red Tory who will change nothing at all
    • SKS is a closet socialist revolutionary who has a secret plan to launch a state-mandated kleptocracy after two years in power
    • SKS an incompetent but lucky general who will preside over chaos and be hated within 12 months of power
    (i) and (iii) but not (ii)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,098

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theipaper

    Opinion | Even Rishi’s ring-binder can’t stop the Tory death spiral

    Emotional intelligence is the missing ingredient in the Sunak mix and it is coming to dominate everything, as both voters and MPs ask whether the PM really gets it, writes
    @KateEMcCann

    https://t.co/yDwgIOZrnE

    I don't even put this down to emotional intelligence. If he was willing to propose and enact policies that would actually help people, still being the feckless wet hen he is, I think people would cut him more slack. The issue is that no politician seems up for proposing things people like and know will help them - which would be more government spending on services and increased taxes on those with high levels of wealth and income, alongside sensible regulation to counter the inflation we have seen in the last 6 months. People aren't stupid - they see their electric and gas bills increase at the same time headlines cry how much profit these companies are making. People see their Council Tax go up and local services and roads crumble. They just want things to be less shit.
    Trouble is, taxes are already high

    If you increase taxes on the wealthy they will just fuck off abroad - like me. So many jobs can now be done remotely - and thanks to digital nomad visas other countries are making it highly feasible to move to sunnier climes with much lower tax rates. Ok these new places will have less fascinating cultural diversity and fewer menacing pro Palestinian rallies and you’ve got to put up with nightlife that actually goes on after 11pm but nothing is perfect
    I was in Hackney on Saturday. The pub we were in closed at 12pm, so we walked up the road (ten minutes) to another pub that was playing pounding music until 2am.

    You are out of touch.
    No I’m not. The Times - today



    And those Hackney venues are doomed. Hackney council have just passed laws closing everything at 11 or 12 at most. It only applies to new places now but it will be extended. That’s Khan’s new joyless London and it will only get worse

    “In Hackney, all new venues must close by 11PM Mon-Fri and 12PM at the weekend. No new venues can operate later than this.

    Over time the existing venues will need new licenses and therefore the venues that are open after 11/12 will slowly erode until there is literally none left.”

    https://x.com/lukerobertblack/status/1764372293357048228?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    Again, you are projecting. The venues in Hackney were OPEN on Saturday. I was THERE.

    As for this Times clickbait nonsense, two-seconds on Google Maps shows you how many bars in Soho are open top 12am, 1am, later... (TLDR – the answer is LOTS). I had 'breakfast' at Balans with a cocktail at 3am very recently. On a Thursday. It does close early on a Thursday admittedly – at 5am rather than 6am.

    The closing of London’s nightlife is not an illusion. I’ve seen it with my own eyes. Sadly

    And the Hackney changes are only coming in now: read my comment. It will take a few years for khan to close it down completely. But he will
    Cos he's owned by Islamists?
    Is that the Jewish Islamaphobic Islamists, the Jewish Antisemitic Islamists, or the Opus Dei Masonic Islamists?
    Sinister bunch.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814
    Leon said:

    *checks weather in London*

    Jesus fecking Christ. It’s still shit isn’t it? March is basically another month of winter in Britain

    16 degrees, not too hot!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620
    Leon said:

    Bad news for that Sean T who used tell us about his exploits with hookers.

    Our recent survey showed the extent of stigma against sex workers, but what about those who have paid for sex?

    61% of Britons say they would be unwilling to date someone they knew had paid for sex - 74% had said they would not date a former prostitute

    Britons are also very reluctant to date someone who is a subscriber of sexual content on platforms like OnlyFans (64%), particularly if they interact with the creator (74%) - in marked contrast to the 42% who would be bothered by a partner watching porn


    https://x.com/yougov/status/1769674580845563913?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    I dunno about this dubious @seant character but if i was him I suspect the Groucho Marx rule applies here

    “I wouldn’t want to fuck a woman who is so uptight she gets upset that I’ve fucked 300 hookers”

    He’s a known libertine, isn’t he? Writes about his drug taking and other sordid experiences around the world? He’s not gonna get on with a nun
    Didn’t he win a bad sex writing award. Not sure he’s an expert on the matter.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theipaper

    Opinion | Even Rishi’s ring-binder can’t stop the Tory death spiral

    Emotional intelligence is the missing ingredient in the Sunak mix and it is coming to dominate everything, as both voters and MPs ask whether the PM really gets it, writes
    @KateEMcCann

    https://t.co/yDwgIOZrnE

    I don't even put this down to emotional intelligence. If he was willing to propose and enact policies that would actually help people, still being the feckless wet hen he is, I think people would cut him more slack. The issue is that no politician seems up for proposing things people like and know will help them - which would be more government spending on services and increased taxes on those with high levels of wealth and income, alongside sensible regulation to counter the inflation we have seen in the last 6 months. People aren't stupid - they see their electric and gas bills increase at the same time headlines cry how much profit these companies are making. People see their Council Tax go up and local services and roads crumble. They just want things to be less shit.
    Trouble is, taxes are already high

    If you increase taxes on the wealthy they will just fuck off abroad - like me. So many jobs can now be done remotely - and thanks to digital nomad visas other countries are making it highly feasible to move to sunnier climes with much lower tax rates. Ok these new places will have less fascinating cultural diversity and fewer menacing pro Palestinian rallies and you’ve got to put up with nightlife that actually goes on after 11pm but nothing is perfect
    I was in Hackney on Saturday. The pub we were in closed at 12pm, so we walked up the road (ten minutes) to another pub that was playing pounding music until 2am.

    You are out of touch.
    Why on earth would anyone choose to enter the second pub?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,401

    Bad news for that Sean T who used tell us about his exploits with hookers.

    Our recent survey showed the extent of stigma against sex workers, but what about those who have paid for sex?

    61% of Britons say they would be unwilling to date someone they knew had paid for sex - 74% had said they would not date a former prostitute

    Britons are also very reluctant to date someone who is a subscriber of sexual content on platforms like OnlyFans (64%), particularly if they interact with the creator (74%) - in marked contrast to the 42% who would be bothered by a partner watching porn


    https://x.com/yougov/status/1769674580845563913?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    yes, but brits lie a lot.

    and if you think about it the 40% who say they would must be having all the fun.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,321

    Scott_xP said:

    @DeltapollUK

    Net approval for the Prime Minister @RishiSunak is unchanged, while approval for
    @Keir_Starmer increases by five points.

    Presumably as a result of all the things Starmer has done in the last few weeks. Checks. Nope - he hasn't done anything...

    Oh wait - he was on Fantasy Football...
    OK, Deltapoll does bounce like a bouncy thing, but my guess is that it's the Rochdale failure fading from public consciousness.
    Hestergate and putative Morduant coup more likely drivers of this movement I think
    No need to overthink it. People are simply peed off with the Tories.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,742
    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note Starmer will have a far more difficult economic situation to deal with if he becomes PM than Blair did in 1997.

    'An analysis of economic and polling data by the political consultancy Public First shows the country has lower wage growth, higher levels of debt and less affordable housing than it did when Labour last ousted the Conservatives from power..The economy grew 4.9% in 1997, following nearly five years where it did not shrink in a single quarter. This year, the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts it will grow just 0.6%.

    Wage growth had been strong for years before the 1997 election and was 2.6% in the election year. This year, the OBR thinks it will be just 0.1%.

    This had a knock-on effect on the government’s finances. In 1997, public sector net debt was 37.5% of gross domestic product. It is now over 90%.'
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/18/labour-landslide-will-be-much-harder-to-achieve-than-in-1997-analysis-shows
    However SKS won't be burdened with the hopes and dreams of a nation as Blair was. It will be easier for him to overdeliver against expectations.
    A very political stance. Low expectations are not the same as improving the national outlook.

    Lets put this in perspective

    We have low growth
    We have massive debts
    We need about 5 millions dwellings and the commensurate infrastructure
    We have a migration problem and the much larger problem of workforce participation
    We need productivity and investment
    We have a war in Ukraine

    And Starmer is just the man for the job because he sacked Corbyn, The equivalent of reorganising the filing in Labour HQ,

    Your hope is based on all of us accepting decline is good enough.

    Personally I dont.

    On housing, one factor has been the growth of older people splitting up and living on their own. What the nations needs is an oldies dating programme. Get all those selfish old folk out of their three bed houses and coupled up once again. More sex for the elderly, more houses for the young...
    On the other hand there's Joe and Jill Biden at it like a couple in a french brothel and they still wont let go of that big white house in the middle of Washington. I dread to think what the Blairs do in their 9 houses.
    Biden at the Gridiron.

    “ One candidate is too old, mentally unfit to be president: The other’s me. You know he ain’t the same guy that I beat in 2020…But don’t tell him. He thinks he’s running against Barack Obama.
    ...And another big difference between us — I know what I value most; I'm Jill Biden's husband. And I know her name. ”
    Actually, its all pretty good stuff: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/03/17/remarks-by-president-biden-at-the-gridiron-club-and-foundation-dinner-march-16-2024/

    The senile and too old argument is really being taken apart. If they can bring home the message of what they have achieved on the economy it should be easier than 2020.
    He is too old. So is Trump.

    The USA should not be having this choice.
    True. But Biden is certainly not senile. (Nor is Trump, for that matter, although he is increasingly living in an echo chamber of his own paranoia and delusions - but that's a different mental condition).
    Oh right so Biden will just be getting fitter over the next 4 years, Will he be doing the 100m at the Olympics in Paris ?

    Who am I to believe, you or the evidence of my own eyes ? Tough call.

    I never said anything about either man's physical fitness. FWIW, I think there's a probability that whichever is elected won't see out his term. Trump is obese, stressed and with an awful diet; Biden looks frail.

    Feel free to believe whatever you want. I'm just calling it as I see it.
    DJT has good genetics. His revolting father lived to a right old age. Biden's father was from the pre-pottery Palaeolithic before the advent of written language so we don't know how old he was.
    That's as may be. But you can only take so many risks with your health in your late 70s (or indeed, early 80s, by the end of the 2025-29 term) before the dice land the wrong way.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549

    Leon said:

    *checks weather in London*

    Jesus fecking Christ. It’s still shit isn’t it? March is basically another month of winter in Britain

    16 degrees, not too hot!
    It's been beautiful weather this morning here in Cambridge. Very pleasant weather for exercise, albeit a bit breezy on the bike.

    @Leon doesn't know what he's walking about, as ever... ;)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620

    Bad news for that Sean T who used tell us about his exploits with hookers.

    Our recent survey showed the extent of stigma against sex workers, but what about those who have paid for sex?

    61% of Britons say they would be unwilling to date someone they knew had paid for sex - 74% had said they would not date a former prostitute

    Britons are also very reluctant to date someone who is a subscriber of sexual content on platforms like OnlyFans (64%), particularly if they interact with the creator (74%) - in marked contrast to the 42% who would be bothered by a partner watching porn


    https://x.com/yougov/status/1769674580845563913?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    yes, but brits lie a lot.

    and if you think about it the 40% who say they would must be having all the fun.
    Well as you know I’m a very pious Muslim in fact I could be mistaken for a Puritan.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279

    Leon said:

    *checks weather in London*

    Jesus fecking Christ. It’s still shit isn’t it? March is basically another month of winter in Britain

    16 degrees, not too hot!
    In southern england summer is june july and the first half of august
    in northern england summer is june and the first half of july
    In scotland summer is 2 weeks in June.
    In Wick summer is 1 day in June.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,513
    FF43 said:

    .

    eek said:

    Trump can’t raise the money to appeal his New York fraud case

    https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1769730440380748067

    I don't normally have any sympathy for Trump. The finding against him doesn't surprise me in this case, but the fine seems excessive. The sheer size of the fine presumably prevents him posting bail and appealing the conviction.
    Not if he was as rich as he claims to be.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,401

    Bad news for that Sean T who used tell us about his exploits with hookers.

    Our recent survey showed the extent of stigma against sex workers, but what about those who have paid for sex?

    61% of Britons say they would be unwilling to date someone they knew had paid for sex - 74% had said they would not date a former prostitute

    Britons are also very reluctant to date someone who is a subscriber of sexual content on platforms like OnlyFans (64%), particularly if they interact with the creator (74%) - in marked contrast to the 42% who would be bothered by a partner watching porn


    https://x.com/yougov/status/1769674580845563913?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    yes, but brits lie a lot.

    and if you think about it the 40% who say they would must be having all the fun.
    Well as you know I’m a very pious Muslim in fact I could be mistaken for a Puritan.
    I initially read that as Putin
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,213

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theipaper

    Opinion | Even Rishi’s ring-binder can’t stop the Tory death spiral

    Emotional intelligence is the missing ingredient in the Sunak mix and it is coming to dominate everything, as both voters and MPs ask whether the PM really gets it, writes
    @KateEMcCann

    https://t.co/yDwgIOZrnE

    I don't even put this down to emotional intelligence. If he was willing to propose and enact policies that would actually help people, still being the feckless wet hen he is, I think people would cut him more slack. The issue is that no politician seems up for proposing things people like and know will help them - which would be more government spending on services and increased taxes on those with high levels of wealth and income, alongside sensible regulation to counter the inflation we have seen in the last 6 months. People aren't stupid - they see their electric and gas bills increase at the same time headlines cry how much profit these companies are making. People see their Council Tax go up and local services and roads crumble. They just want things to be less shit.
    Trouble is, taxes are already high

    If you increase taxes on the wealthy they will just fuck off abroad - like me. So many jobs can now be done remotely - and thanks to digital nomad visas other countries are making it highly feasible to move to sunnier climes with much lower tax rates. Ok these new places will have less fascinating cultural diversity and fewer menacing pro Palestinian rallies and you’ve got to put up with nightlife that actually goes on after 11pm but nothing is perfect
    I was in Hackney on Saturday. The pub we were in closed at 12pm, so we walked up the road (ten minutes) to another pub that was playing pounding music until 2am.

    You are out of touch.
    No I’m not. The Times - today



    And those Hackney venues are doomed. Hackney council have just passed laws closing everything at 11 or 12 at most. It only applies to new places now but it will be extended. That’s Khan’s new joyless London and it will only get worse

    “In Hackney, all new venues must close by 11PM Mon-Fri and 12PM at the weekend. No new venues can operate later than this.

    Over time the existing venues will need new licenses and therefore the venues that are open after 11/12 will slowly erode until there is literally none left.”

    https://x.com/lukerobertblack/status/1764372293357048228?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    Again, you are projecting. The venues in Hackney were OPEN on Saturday. I was THERE.

    As for this Times clickbait nonsense, two-seconds on Google Maps shows you how many bars in Soho are open top 12am, 1am, later... (TLDR – the answer is LOTS). I had 'breakfast' at Balans with a cocktail at 3am very recently. On a Thursday. It does close early on a Thursday admittedly – at 5am rather than 6am.

    And what have Hackney Council licensing decisions got to do with the London Mayor? You'd be as well to blame it on Rishi Sunak. Neither of them are in charge of Borough level local government.
    Hackney has gentrified massively in recent years and also seen a lot of new housing built in areas that used to be home to a vibrant (ie noisy and messy) night time culture. It's not surprising that there's pressure from residents to cool it down. The best nightlife is south of the river now. If Leon wants to stay out late he should go out in Peckham, he can easily find places where he can dance and drink until dawn.
    Twas ever thus - people move into a cheap area, gentrifying it. Then they want the vibrant nightlife moved on.

    Typically, when you get to people buying properties, they campaign effectively with the council to have such restrictions put in. The squeaky wheel etc.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620
    My word the Guardian has realised exclusive clubs attract the elites.

    The full membership list of the men-only Garrick Club reveals its central position as a bulwark of the British establishment, featuring scores of leading lawyers, heads of publicly funded arts institutions, the chief of MI6, the head of the civil service, and King Charles.

    Members also include the deputy prime minister, the secretary of state for levelling up, the chief executive of the Royal Opera House as well as Richard Moore, the head of the Secret Intelligence Service, and Simon Case, who as cabinet secretary is the prime minister’s most senior policy adviser and the leader of nearly half a million civil servants.


    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/mar/18/garrick-club-men-only-members-list-roll-call-british-establishment
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    edited March 18

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theipaper

    Opinion | Even Rishi’s ring-binder can’t stop the Tory death spiral

    Emotional intelligence is the missing ingredient in the Sunak mix and it is coming to dominate everything, as both voters and MPs ask whether the PM really gets it, writes
    @KateEMcCann

    https://t.co/yDwgIOZrnE

    I don't even put this down to emotional intelligence. If he was willing to propose and enact policies that would actually help people, still being the feckless wet hen he is, I think people would cut him more slack. The issue is that no politician seems up for proposing things people like and know will help them - which would be more government spending on services and increased taxes on those with high levels of wealth and income, alongside sensible regulation to counter the inflation we have seen in the last 6 months. People aren't stupid - they see their electric and gas bills increase at the same time headlines cry how much profit these companies are making. People see their Council Tax go up and local services and roads crumble. They just want things to be less shit.
    Trouble is, taxes are already high

    If you increase taxes on the wealthy they will just fuck off abroad - like me. So many jobs can now be done remotely - and thanks to digital nomad visas other countries are making it highly feasible to move to sunnier climes with much lower tax rates. Ok these new places will have less fascinating cultural diversity and fewer menacing pro Palestinian rallies and you’ve got to put up with nightlife that actually goes on after 11pm but nothing is perfect
    I was in Hackney on Saturday. The pub we were in closed at 12pm, so we walked up the road (ten minutes) to another pub that was playing pounding music until 2am.

    You are out of touch.
    No I’m not. The Times - today



    And those Hackney venues are doomed. Hackney council have just passed laws closing everything at 11 or 12 at most. It only applies to new places now but it will be extended. That’s Khan’s new joyless London and it will only get worse

    “In Hackney, all new venues must close by 11PM Mon-Fri and 12PM at the weekend. No new venues can operate later than this.

    Over time the existing venues will need new licenses and therefore the venues that are open after 11/12 will slowly erode until there is literally none left.”

    https://x.com/lukerobertblack/status/1764372293357048228?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    Again, you are projecting. The venues in Hackney were OPEN on Saturday. I was THERE.

    As for this Times clickbait nonsense, two-seconds on Google Maps shows you how many bars in Soho are open top 12am, 1am, later... (TLDR – the answer is LOTS). I had 'breakfast' at Balans with a cocktail at 3am very recently. On a Thursday. It does close early on a Thursday admittedly – at 5am rather than 6am.

    The closing of London’s nightlife is not an illusion. I’ve seen it with my own eyes. Sadly

    And the Hackney changes are only coming in now: read my comment. It will take a few years for khan to close it down completely. But he will
    Going the way of your other famous predictions:

    • Self-driving cars
    • Chinese GDP
    • Truss surprising on the upside

    (P.S. Licensing in Hackney has nothing to do with Sadiq Khan)
    Chinese GDP







    Nor is this a statistical illusion, as the FT data crunchers (probably the best in the biz) have noted:



  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,549
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theipaper

    Opinion | Even Rishi’s ring-binder can’t stop the Tory death spiral

    Emotional intelligence is the missing ingredient in the Sunak mix and it is coming to dominate everything, as both voters and MPs ask whether the PM really gets it, writes
    @KateEMcCann

    https://t.co/yDwgIOZrnE

    I don't even put this down to emotional intelligence. If he was willing to propose and enact policies that would actually help people, still being the feckless wet hen he is, I think people would cut him more slack. The issue is that no politician seems up for proposing things people like and know will help them - which would be more government spending on services and increased taxes on those with high levels of wealth and income, alongside sensible regulation to counter the inflation we have seen in the last 6 months. People aren't stupid - they see their electric and gas bills increase at the same time headlines cry how much profit these companies are making. People see their Council Tax go up and local services and roads crumble. They just want things to be less shit.
    Trouble is, taxes are already high

    If you increase taxes on the wealthy they will just fuck off abroad - like me. So many jobs can now be done remotely - and thanks to digital nomad visas other countries are making it highly feasible to move to sunnier climes with much lower tax rates. Ok these new places will have less fascinating cultural diversity and fewer menacing pro Palestinian rallies and you’ve got to put up with nightlife that actually goes on after 11pm but nothing is perfect
    I was in Hackney on Saturday. The pub we were in closed at 12pm, so we walked up the road (ten minutes) to another pub that was playing pounding music until 2am.

    You are out of touch.
    No I’m not. The Times - today



    And those Hackney venues are doomed. Hackney council have just passed laws closing everything at 11 or 12 at most. It only applies to new places now but it will be extended. That’s Khan’s new joyless London and it will only get worse

    “In Hackney, all new venues must close by 11PM Mon-Fri and 12PM at the weekend. No new venues can operate later than this.

    Over time the existing venues will need new licenses and therefore the venues that are open after 11/12 will slowly erode until there is literally none left.”

    https://x.com/lukerobertblack/status/1764372293357048228?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    Again, you are projecting. The venues in Hackney were OPEN on Saturday. I was THERE.

    As for this Times clickbait nonsense, two-seconds on Google Maps shows you how many bars in Soho are open top 12am, 1am, later... (TLDR – the answer is LOTS). I had 'breakfast' at Balans with a cocktail at 3am very recently. On a Thursday. It does close early on a Thursday admittedly – at 5am rather than 6am.

    The closing of London’s nightlife is not an illusion. I’ve seen it with my own eyes. Sadly

    And the Hackney changes are only coming in now: read my comment. It will take a few years for khan to close it down completely. But he will
    Going the way of your other famous predictions:

    • Self-driving cars
    • Chinese GDP
    • Truss surprising on the upside

    (P.S. Licensing in Hackney has nothing to do with Sadiq Khan)
    Chinese GDP







    Nor is this a statistical illusion, as the FT data crunchers (probably the best in the biz) have noted:
    That's GDP (PPP), not GDP. It also depends on the Chinese figures, which are (ahem) interesting.

    https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/second-quarter-2017/chinas-economic-data-an-accurate-reflection-or-just-smoke-and-mirrors
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392
    moonshine said:

    Donkeys said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    RobD said:

    148grss said:

    Why does a large amount of Twitter / X believe that Chaz has kicked the bucket? Is this wishful thinking on the poetry of him dying on St Paddy's day; or is this an outcome of the continued palace silence after the weirdness around Kate and Chaz's illness leading to more conspiratorial thinking?

    You must be new to twitter.
    TBF twitter was ahead of the "official" curve when Lizzy popped her clogs. I know it has got much worse since then, and recent Windsor conspiracies have been abound - but still, we know Charles is ill and I wouldn't be surprised to learn he's popped it.
    The King will be at Trooping the Colour but in a carriage while his cancer treatment continues rather than riding a horse, he certainly is not dead

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/royals/26753071/king-charles-trooping-the-colour-cancer/
    What is the poetry of him dying on St. Patrick's Day?

    Fairly sure Charles isn't dead. The lags between queen's death and internet rumours of queen's death, and between queen's death and actual announcement of queen's death, were about 2 hours and 7 hours respectively. It was hardly hushed up.

    The Kate stuff is weirder by far. Not least because it's hard to see who gains by it.
    +1. The Kate thing is weird. I don't understand the point of any of it. If she is seriously unwell, then just say, and expect privacy. Health issues happen. If its something else? Divorce? Seems unlikely. Is she dead? Even more unlikely. At this point its classic Streissand.
    It's not Streisand. Their comms managers may not get their jobs by being the best in the business, but they're not that stupid.

    The mistake is to assume that if she had a health issue they would necessarily be OK with its nature and cause and circumstances coming out. It's easy to think of scenarios where that wouldn't be so - ones that don't involve the anti-Christ or bad people believing what they read on the internet.
    You believe the story about the photograph? I certainly have my doubts, and I am not
    one to go into conspiracy theories.

    Of course it may just be health issues, but if
    she currently looks as good as she did in
    the photo, then why isn't she back at work?
    She looked amazing.
    My guess is that she has something - like a stoma - that she is embarrassed by. In an ideal world she might be like Charles and cancer and use it as a “teachable moment” but you can’t force her to

    The mistake was faking a photo.

    I stress this is just speculation

    IBD and stoma is the logical answer for the non conspiracy minded. Post op treatment by steroids causing puffiness so refusal to give a brief video thanking well wishers. But it doesn’t explain the very odd press management and behaviour of William. Reportedly visiting the hospital only once, the last min ducking out from that funeral. Nor the sudden attention by sections of the global press on an apparently ordinary British aristo mother of three.

    There’s plenty of other things that would be embarrassing for both the patient AND the
    institution of the monarchy and you only need to look at the public comments of MM and Lady Di to hazard a guess as to what.

    If the foreign press reports about the true nature of Charles condition are accurate, you can see how the two combined represent a genuine crisis. The last Prince of Wales had three decades for his image to recover from “caddish” behaviour before taking the top job. The current PoW may not have that luxury.
    True nature of the Kings condition from foreign press? Do tell!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239
    TimS said:

    @Truman

    'If my area would steal something it would be asphalt (don't drive to Elista at night, and only drive slowly during daytime 😂). I've been to number of Oblasts in Russia (all in Europe), but Kalmykian roads are by far the worst. You don't need signs to tell that you've left Rostovskaya Oblast and have entered Kalmykia, because there's literally a clear cut difference in road quality. It goes from a normal street where you can drive 100 km/h to watch out, there are holes, don't go faster than 30 km/h! in less than 10 m 😂 (I'm not exaggerating). '


    Comrade

    You will experience exactly the same abrupt change in driving from Worcestershire into Gloucestershire.

    I am not exaggerating.

    Infrastructure borders are great fun as little amusing diversions on one's travels. A few notable intra-developed world examples:

    - Ontario : Quebec - from smooth road to potholed death trap (at least when I was there)
    - France : Switzerland - completely different road sign fonts and colour scheme
    - Germany : Denmark - from no speed limit to strict limits and speed cameras everywhere
    - France : Spain - old stone farmhouses to crumbling concrete tower blocks
    - Tennessee : Alabama - neat white houses with picket fences, immaculate lawns, churches and horses to down at heel trailers and cotton farms
    Yes borders and frontiers fascinate me as well

    Mexico America is pretty stark, in places. From obvious wealth to violent edginess - via a huge concrete wall

    I imagine (I’ve not been) the most extreme must be Haiti/dominican republic - on the right side of Hispaniola, the Dominican Republic, you have almost European levels of affluence, order, infrastructure. On the Haitian side you have dire poverty, total violent anarchy and people filming themselves eating human corpses
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    Leon said:

    biggles said:

    Good afternoon

    Managed to strim and cut our rear lawn today just 6 weeks after my pacemaker operation

    The pulse rate was excellent throughout but not able to take any liberties as my good lady watches ready to swoop if she thinks i am pushing it ( not the mower)

    Hope to do the front lawn in the next few days

    Now I feel bad for not doing mine!

    Isn’t it a bit wet for mowing the lawn this week? At least the at was my excuse to Mrs Biggles this weekend…..
    Is the weather STILL SHIT in Blighty? I’m meant to be coming home this week but it’s really hard when it is so gorgeous out here and dull and miserable in the YUK
    In a word? Mizzle. The weather is like Rishi Sunak personified.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,098
    edited March 18

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note Starmer will have a far more difficult economic situation to deal with if he becomes PM than Blair did in 1997.

    'An analysis of economic and polling data by the political consultancy Public First shows the country has lower wage growth, higher levels of debt and less affordable housing than it did when Labour last ousted the Conservatives from power..The economy grew 4.9% in 1997, following nearly five years where it did not shrink in a single quarter. This year, the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts it will grow just 0.6%.

    Wage growth had been strong for years before the 1997 election and was 2.6% in the election year. This year, the OBR thinks it will be just 0.1%.

    This had a knock-on effect on the government’s finances. In 1997, public sector net debt was 37.5% of gross domestic product. It is now over 90%.'
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/18/labour-landslide-will-be-much-harder-to-achieve-than-in-1997-analysis-shows
    However SKS won't be burdened with the hopes and dreams of a nation as Blair was. It will be easier for him to overdeliver against expectations.
    A very political stance. Low expectations are not the same as improving the national outlook.

    Lets put this in perspective

    We have low growth
    We have massive debts
    We need about 5 millions dwellings and the commensurate infrastructure
    We have a migration problem and the much larger problem of workforce participation
    We need productivity and investment
    We have a war in Ukraine

    And Starmer is just the man for the job because he sacked Corbyn, The equivalent of reorganising the filing in Labour HQ,

    Your hope is based on all of us accepting decline is good enough.

    Personally I dont.

    On housing, one factor has been the growth of older people splitting up and living on their own. What the nations needs is an oldies dating programme. Get all those selfish old folk out of their three bed houses and coupled up once again. More sex for the elderly, more houses for the young...
    On the other hand there's Joe and Jill Biden at it like a couple in a french brothel and they still wont let go of that big white house in the middle of Washington. I dread to think what the Blairs do in their 9 houses.
    Biden at the Gridiron.

    “ One candidate is too old, mentally unfit to be president: The other’s me. You know he ain’t the same guy that I beat in 2020…But don’t tell him. He thinks he’s running against Barack Obama.
    ...And another big difference between us — I know what I value most; I'm Jill Biden's husband. And I know her name. ”
    Actually, its all pretty good stuff: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/03/17/remarks-by-president-biden-at-the-gridiron-club-and-foundation-dinner-march-16-2024/

    The senile and too old argument is really being taken apart. If they can bring home the message of what they have achieved on the economy it should be easier than 2020.
    He is too old. So is Trump.

    The USA should not be having this choice.
    True. But Biden is certainly not senile. (Nor is Trump, for that matter, although he is increasingly living in an echo chamber of his own paranoia and delusions - but that's a different mental condition).
    Oh right so Biden will just be getting fitter over the next 4 years, Will he be doing the 100m at the Olympics in Paris ?

    Who am I to believe, you or the evidence of my own eyes ? Tough call.

    I never said anything about either man's physical fitness. FWIW, I think there's a probability that whichever is elected won't see out his term. Trump is obese, stressed and with an awful diet; Biden looks frail.

    Feel free to believe whatever you want. I'm just calling it as I see it.
    DJT has good genetics. His revolting father lived to a right old age. Biden's father was from the pre-pottery Palaeolithic before the advent of written language so we don't know how old he was.
    That's as may be. But you can only take so many risks with your health in your late 70s (or indeed, early 80s, by the end of the 2025-29 term) before the dice land the wrong way.
    Trump does (sadly) look robust. Also a lifelong teetotaller and non-smoker. I'd put up a spread of something like 125/140 on remaining lifespan (months) if I was making a market.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    148grss said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @theipaper

    Opinion | Even Rishi’s ring-binder can’t stop the Tory death spiral

    Emotional intelligence is the missing ingredient in the Sunak mix and it is coming to dominate everything, as both voters and MPs ask whether the PM really gets it, writes
    @KateEMcCann

    https://t.co/yDwgIOZrnE

    I don't even put this down to emotional intelligence. If he was willing to propose and enact policies that would actually help people, still being the feckless wet hen he is, I think people would cut him more slack. The issue is that no politician seems up for proposing things people like and know will help them - which would be more government spending on services and increased taxes on those with high levels of wealth and income, alongside sensible regulation to counter the inflation we have seen in the last 6 months. People aren't stupid - they see their electric and gas bills increase at the same time headlines cry how much profit these companies are making. People see their Council Tax go up and local services and roads crumble. They just want things to be less shit.
    Trouble is, taxes are already high

    If you increase taxes on the wealthy they will just fuck off abroad - like me. So many jobs can now be done remotely - and thanks to digital nomad visas other countries are making it highly feasible to move to sunnier climes with much lower tax rates. Ok these new places will have less fascinating cultural diversity and fewer menacing pro Palestinian rallies and you’ve got to put up with nightlife that actually goes on after 11pm but nothing is perfect
    I was in Hackney on Saturday. The pub we were in closed at 12pm, so we walked up the road (ten minutes) to another pub that was playing pounding music until 2am.

    You are out of touch.
    No I’m not. The Times - today



    And those Hackney venues are doomed. Hackney council have just passed laws closing everything at 11 or 12 at most. It only applies to new places now but it will be extended. That’s Khan’s new joyless London and it will only get worse

    “In Hackney, all new venues must close by 11PM Mon-Fri and 12PM at the weekend. No new venues can operate later than this.

    Over time the existing venues will need new licenses and therefore the venues that are open after 11/12 will slowly erode until there is literally none left.”

    https://x.com/lukerobertblack/status/1764372293357048228?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    Again, you are projecting. The venues in Hackney were OPEN on Saturday. I was THERE.

    As for this Times clickbait nonsense, two-seconds on Google Maps shows you how many bars in Soho are open top 12am, 1am, later... (TLDR – the answer is LOTS). I had 'breakfast' at Balans with a cocktail at 3am very recently. On a Thursday. It does close early on a Thursday admittedly – at 5am rather than 6am.

    The closing of London’s nightlife is not an illusion. I’ve seen it with my own eyes. Sadly

    And the Hackney changes are only coming in now: read my comment. It will take a few years for khan to close it down completely. But he will
    Going the way of your other famous predictions:

    • Self-driving cars
    • Chinese GDP
    • Truss surprising on the upside

    (P.S. Licensing in Hackney has nothing to do with Sadiq Khan)
    Chinese GDP







    Nor is this a statistical illusion, as the FT data crunchers (probably the best in the biz) have noted:
    That's GDP (PPP), not GDP. It also depends on the Chinese figures, which are (ahem) interesting.

    https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/second-quarter-2017/chinas-economic-data-an-accurate-reflection-or-just-smoke-and-mirrors
    The Russian Ukraine war is showing that - after decades of dispute - gdp by ppp is probably the better measure than gdp (nominal)

    Read the FT article. It explains why, and details the corroborating evidence which shows that China now has the bigger economy
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,392

    CatMan said:
    And yet Man City continue to get away with repeated flouting of the rules over many years. If I were a Forest or Everton fan I would be fuming at this.
    And the new Premier League rules coming in next season will favour the big clubs even more.

    The Conservative track record is one of complete lack of regulation of football over 14 years. Now we have a vague promise to bring in a football regulator some time in the near future. That won't cut it when there will be an election between then and now, for they appear to have deliberately missed the opportunity to act. And in any case a Conservative football regulator would be about as effective as OFWAT.
    Arguably its not the Government's job to regulate football - that's The Premier League and Football Association in this country, and UEFA/FIFA abroad - assuming complying with any legal measures.

    I am not fully up to speed on why Man City's case is still dragging along, yet others are completed and docked points, but clearly there must be some point of difference.

    Unless its the old big vs small again (in my day Swindon relegated two divisions vs Spurs fined some money).
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,321
    TimS said:

    @Truman

    'If my area would steal something it would be asphalt (don't drive to Elista at night, and only drive slowly during daytime 😂). I've been to number of Oblasts in Russia (all in Europe), but Kalmykian roads are by far the worst. You don't need signs to tell that you've left Rostovskaya Oblast and have entered Kalmykia, because there's literally a clear cut difference in road quality. It goes from a normal street where you can drive 100 km/h to watch out, there are holes, don't go faster than 30 km/h! in less than 10 m 😂 (I'm not exaggerating). '


    Comrade

    You will experience exactly the same abrupt change in driving from Worcestershire into Gloucestershire.

    I am not exaggerating.

    Infrastructure borders are great fun as little amusing diversions on one's travels. A few notable intra-developed world examples:

    - Ontario : Quebec - from smooth road to potholed death trap (at least when I was there)
    - France : Switzerland - completely different road sign fonts and colour scheme
    - Germany : Denmark - from no speed limit to strict limits and speed cameras everywhere
    - France : Spain - old stone farmhouses to crumbling concrete tower blocks
    - Tennessee : Alabama - neat white houses with picket fences, immaculate lawns, churches and horses to down at heel trailers and cotton farms
    You are (still) right about Ontario/Quebec. For some unaccountable reason public services declined in the latter once the French took over, and have never recovered.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814
    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    biggles said:

    Good afternoon

    Managed to strim and cut our rear lawn today just 6 weeks after my pacemaker operation

    The pulse rate was excellent throughout but not able to take any liberties as my good lady watches ready to swoop if she thinks i am pushing it ( not the mower)

    Hope to do the front lawn in the next few days

    Now I feel bad for not doing mine!

    Isn’t it a bit wet for mowing the lawn this week? At least the at was my excuse to Mrs Biggles this weekend…..
    Is the weather STILL SHIT in Blighty? I’m meant to be coming home this week but it’s really hard when it is so gorgeous out here and dull and miserable in the YUK
    In a word? Mizzle. The weather is like Rishi Sunak personified.
    Lovely sunny morning in Scotland. Was watching mating toads and courting dippers this morning.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,889

    Donkeys said:

    Next PM, Betfair

    Starmer 1.3
    Mordaunt 9
    Badenoch 30
    Farage 38
    Cameron 85
    Braverman 90

    Next Tory leader, Betfair

    Badenoch 4.5
    Mordaunt 5.5
    Braverman 11
    Cleverly 12
    Patel 15.5
    Jenrick 24
    Cameron 26
    Farage 28
    Johnson 34

    Who on earth would bet on Patel at a price of under 500?

    Of the names of those "contenders", if Mordaunt and Cleverly were to lose their seats, but she didn't, she would be (relatively) the most "centrist" candidate.
    If it was down to members yes but I think most of those top 10 are overrated, in a members vote it would likely be Mordaunt v Badenoch/Braverman. However it is Tory MPs who pick the last two and none of those 3 made the last 2 when they stood for leader in 2022 and Mordaunt only came 3rd.

    I suspect Barclay will pick up most Sunak supporting MPs from 2022, it would be Chalk but he likely loses his seat and I think a few Sunak backing MPs and Truss MPs will switch to Tugendhat, who let us remember got more Tory MPs backing him in 2022 than Braverman
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    Donkeys said:

    Next PM, Betfair

    Starmer 1.3
    Mordaunt 9
    Badenoch 30
    Farage 38
    Cameron 85
    Braverman 90

    Next Tory leader, Betfair

    Badenoch 4.5
    Mordaunt 5.5
    Braverman 11
    Cleverly 12
    Patel 15.5
    Jenrick 24
    Cameron 26
    Farage 28
    Johnson 34

    Who on earth would bet on Patel at a price of under 500?

    And what is the mechanism for Farage? Who are these idiots betting on him, and would they like to just give me their money now rather than leave it with Betfair for a year?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,620
    edited March 18

    CatMan said:
    And yet Man City continue to get away with repeated flouting of the rules over many years. If I were a Forest or Everton fan I would be fuming at this.
    And the new Premier League rules coming in next season will favour the big clubs even more.

    The Conservative track record is one of complete lack of regulation of football over 14 years. Now we have a vague promise to bring in a football regulator some time in the near future. That won't cut it when there will be an election between then and now, for they appear to have deliberately missed the opportunity to act. And in any case a Conservative football regulator would be about as effective as OFWAT.
    Arguably its not the Government's job to regulate football - that's The Premier League and Football Association in this country, and UEFA/FIFA abroad - assuming complying with any legal measures.

    I am not fully up to speed on why Man City's case is still dragging along, yet others are completed and docked points, but clearly there must be some point of difference.

    Unless its the old big vs small again (in my day Swindon relegated two divisions vs Spurs fined some money).
    What Wulfrun_Phil and others miss is that government interference in football can lead to the country being suspended by UEFA/FIFA from international and club action.

    The government regulator has a very fine line to tread.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,239

    TimS said:

    @Truman

    'If my area would steal something it would be asphalt (don't drive to Elista at night, and only drive slowly during daytime 😂). I've been to number of Oblasts in Russia (all in Europe), but Kalmykian roads are by far the worst. You don't need signs to tell that you've left Rostovskaya Oblast and have entered Kalmykia, because there's literally a clear cut difference in road quality. It goes from a normal street where you can drive 100 km/h to watch out, there are holes, don't go faster than 30 km/h! in less than 10 m 😂 (I'm not exaggerating). '


    Comrade

    You will experience exactly the same abrupt change in driving from Worcestershire into Gloucestershire.

    I am not exaggerating.

    Infrastructure borders are great fun as little amusing diversions on one's travels. A few notable intra-developed world examples:

    - Ontario : Quebec - from smooth road to potholed death trap (at least when I was there)
    - France : Switzerland - completely different road sign fonts and colour scheme
    - Germany : Denmark - from no speed limit to strict limits and speed cameras everywhere
    - France : Spain - old stone farmhouses to crumbling concrete tower blocks
    - Tennessee : Alabama - neat white houses with picket fences, immaculate lawns, churches and horses to down at heel trailers and cotton farms
    You are (still) right about Ontario/Quebec. For unaccountable reason public services declined in the latter once the French took over, and have never recovered.
    Didn’t a ton of businesses flee Montreal for Toronto because of the Quebecois indyrefs? AIUI Montreal used to be the Canadian biz capital - or equal with Tronna - but the Indy stuff scared them all away. Reducing the tax base which has never recovered

    The same will happen to Edinburgh is there is ever another Sindyref
This discussion has been closed.