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Mo’ money mo’ problems – politicalbetting.com

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  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    darkage said:

    Regarding AI - I worked out that we could automate a large part of our report writing at work just using a basic version of Chat GPT. The resultant reports would be of a higher quality and accuracy than the written output of the (graduate level) staff doing the work. I haven't suggested it because I know already that the managers won't entertain the idea; but what will happen is the brighter staff will start using it anyway and the change will happen that way.

    BUT what if the machines figure it out first . . .

    Best policy, is to get on their good side NOW.
  • Penddu2Penddu2 Posts: 718

    Leon said:

    Now THAT is a beautiful beer, beautifully poured. Shove your fucking “cellar cool cask ales” up your tight British butts


    Bighead
    Beerocino
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    6 days to go till the equinox, the latest anyone could officially determine as "winter".

    The J32-35a M1 roadworks will really have to go some to be completed by then
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,283
    2024 National GE: @Rasmussen_Poll

    🟥 Trump 49% (+8)
    🟦 Biden 41%

    🟥 Trump 50% (+7)
    🟦 M. Obama 43%

    🟥 Trump 51% (+17)
    🟦 Newsom 34%

    912 LV | 3/5-7 | D36/R33/I31 | MoE: ±3%

    https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/1767926033968177342
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,418
    The Evening Standard is owned by Boris's mate who is neither a Russian spy nor a security risk.

    But nor is he a sys admin.


    Oops.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,418
    darkage said:

    Regarding AI - I worked out that we could automate a large part of our report writing at work just using a basic version of Chat GPT. The resultant reports would be of a higher quality and accuracy than the written output of the (graduate level) staff doing the work. I haven't suggested it because I know already that the managers won't entertain the idea; but what will happen is the brighter staff will start using it anyway and the change will happen that way.

    Your bosses will love the money they save by sacking the brighter staff for exporting confidential data to ChatGPT Towers in order for it to write those reports. Bosses love short-term savings. It is when companies start self-hosting AI that we need to worry (and to buy shares in Nvidia and the electricity company).
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Pulpstar said:

    6 days to go till the equinox, the latest anyone could officially determine as "winter".

    The J32-35a M1 roadworks will really have to go some to be completed by then

    Spring 2025
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,418

    Good article from Alistair Heath for anyone who reads the Tele:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/03/13/farage-return-extinction-level-event-for-tories/

    Backs up my view on the earlier thread: the best thing for the Tories would be to have the election in May.Yes, they'll lose badly but will be able to come back in 5-10 years depending how Labour do.

    If they wait then the risk of extinction level disaster increases. It's certainly possible to see a scenario, where the small boats surge over the summer, Farage comes back, Reform overtake Cons in the opinion polls and then the Cons completely collapse (hint: the Reform is a wasted vote argument won't wash, if Reform are ahead of Con).

    So Con should rip off the sticking plaster and get the loss over with,but they'll probably hang on to the last minute as that's another 9 months' wages for a large cohort of people who are going to become unemployed.

    As an aside, one of the interesting things to think about is if the current polling continues, how this impacts the election debates and media coverage. In 2010 and 2015, the system was essentially 2+1 (big 2 + Lib Dems). After the LD collapse in 2015 this then became 2+5 (big 2+ 5 smaller parties).

    People Polling is perhaps an outlier but there most recent polling had Con only 5% ahead of reform and 8% ahead of LD. If other pollsters show a similarly small gap then you would question whether the broadcasters would have to change the formula (4+3)?

    As another aside, I really don't see that the Cons can change PM again but I'm starting to wonder whether it might be possible for Rishi to stay on as PM but get a new party leader who can be candidate for PM at the election. I'm thinking of Germany where they sometimes have different party leaders from Chancellor candidates.

    Small boats surging in summer is another reason for waiting till winter.

    It is exactly 45 weeks to the general election on Thursday, 23 January.
  • Twickbait_55Twickbait_55 Posts: 127
    Truman said:

    Rishi Sunak is SO BAD at politics. Every decision he makes is like he's trying to increase the size of the Labour majority, does he have a pony on it?

    Hes never been tested has he. Made massive amounts of easy money when young parachuted into an ultra safe seat then got the applause for dishing out free money during covid.
    His lack of a political antenna shows his lack of experience. But also, what are his political advisors thinking?! The constant doubling down and then capitulation is appalling and embarrassing if you are a Tory. Makes The Thick of It look like hard, professional politics. Really poor.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,418
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Leon said:

    geoffw said:

    The AI revolution is a disruptor. Like the Industrial Revolution two centuries ago. Lots of jobs/occupations disappear. But others appear, some new some old. People will shift into activities where they have a comparative advantage. Imagine that AI bots can do everything humans can, but better or more efficiently. Even so, there will - with logical certainty - be activites where humans have comparative advantage, as David Ricardo taught us before the Industrial Revolution (though the Luddites of the time were oblivious to this insight).

    Why is it a logical certainty that humans will be able to do jobs AI can’t?

    I’m not on a wind up. Properly curious

    Also what are these jobs? Lots of people would like to know including my daughters in their late teens now choosing uni courses

    I am fairly sure some jobs will survive and some will be created - but u don’t see it as “logically certain” - and I am much less sure that the new jobs will be anywhere near as plentiful as all the jobs lost
    I struggle to imagine the terminally ill devout Catholic requesting an AI robot to play a recorded message for their last rites.

    Perhaps not that helpful for your daughter though!
    Jobs I can't see AI doing terribly well (yet):
    Fireman
    Nurse
    Plumber
    Electrician

    Basically, any proper job.

    Jobs like mine, which involve writing reports only a small handul of people will read, or being one of a handful of people to read a report that someone has written, are doomed though.
    Sports star, Call Girl, rent boy, pole dancer, strip-o-gram and on-the- ground travel writer are surely safely guaranteed occupations.
    I genuinely think that might be it. That list. That’s what will be left

    70% of my job will be gone within 5 years. An Ai can design the perfect basalt butt plug - better than anything I can make - then email the blueprint
    to a 3D stone printer lathe which will then churn them out by the trillion. My job is gone. Maybe I will have a small hut in st Ives where I can selll my inferior versions on the basis that they are “artisanal” = flawed but human

    But the big money is gone

    That leaves travel writer for the knappers gazette and opinionater for the same in exotic locations. That’s actually extremely hard to robotise. An ai can’t get drunk on margaritas in the Maldives or get itself arrested, amusingly, in Mauritius

    But that’s a pretty tiny niche left for me. What does everyone else do?

    I am genuinely fearful for the future of human work and therefore humanity. I don’t write this AI doom porn JUST coz it amuses me. It also sincerely horrifies me
    Surely a travel writer can be replaced by AI based on the hotel's website, the tourist board's website and a quick scan of Google street view.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,418
    carnforth said:

    PB.

    One to watch for the future: Keir Mather. Future in the cabinet.

    If Tory mothers were naming their children Winston we’d mock them both. Somehow the Labour Keirs get away with it.
    The only Winstons I've met were named by West Indian mothers.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,418
    The Electoral Commission is advertising about photo ID.

    The deadline to apply for free voter ID for the elections on Thursday 2 May is 5pm on Wednesday 24 April.
    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/voting-and-elections/voter-id
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,125
    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    In 18 years on here I think I've only ever genuinely sworn maybe five times (and then, as far as I know, never "fs" or "cs" ?)

    Not that I'm a pussy but because I like to think my posts can be read and get noticed without having to resort to turning the air blue...

    + On the odd occasion when I do drop a swear bomb I know it counts for so much more ;)

    There’s something to be said for that approach

    It’s a bad writer who relies on cuss words for effect (they are FAR too common in modern tv drama and movies). However they are powerfully useful and English has the best swear words of all (where is the French “fuck” eh? Eh??? Exactly) and they are in the toolbox

    But if you’re gonna swear SWEAR

    Asterisks are for tw*ts

    The slavic languages swear in a far more baroque and creative way. English swearing is tame by comparison. Swearing in English is for ****s.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469

    carnforth said:

    PB.

    One to watch for the future: Keir Mather. Future in the cabinet.

    If Tory mothers were naming their children Winston we’d mock them both. Somehow the Labour Keirs get away with it.
    The only Winstons I've met were named by West Indian mothers.
    I don't think I've ever met a Winston.

    Keir's a crummy name anyway. Much better to name your child 'Kier'
    https://www.kier.co.uk/
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,779
    People are unfair to poor Rishi. He always takes decisive action. It's just that it's usually a month too late.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469
    Chris said:

    People are unfair to poor Rishi. He always takes decisive action. It's just that it's usually a month too late.

    It's difficult to get timing right. Boris had his No.10 parties months too early.... ;)
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,038
    Diane Abbott on racism in the Indy today.

    She’s quite right, the Tories have been abhorrent but, in her experience, labour have been guilty of racism towards her too. Labours synthetic outrage over this is more about party political point scoring than caring about Diane Abbott and the racism she endures.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/diane-abbott-racist-sexist-tory-party-donor-frank-hester-labour-starmer-b2512016.html
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469
    Always beware of companies that put 'AI' in the advertising bumf for their tech:

    "AI weapons scanner backtracks on UK testing claims"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-68547574
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,469
    Taz said:

    Diane Abbott on racism in the Indy today.

    She’s quite right, the Tories have been abhorrent but, in her experience, labour have been guilty of racism towards her too. Labours synthetic outrage over this is more about party political point scoring than caring about Diane Abbott and the racism she endures.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/diane-abbott-racist-sexist-tory-party-donor-frank-hester-labour-starmer-b2512016.html

    Yet she, too, is a racist.

    Complex, isn't it?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,954
    edited March 14

    The Electoral Commission is advertising about photo ID.

    The deadline to apply for free voter ID for the elections on Thursday 2 May is 5pm on Wednesday 24 April.
    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/voting-and-elections/voter-id

    You only need to apply for a Voter Authority Certificate if:

    you do not have accepted photo ID
    you no longer look like the photo on your ID
    the name on your photo ID is different to your name on the electoral register


    Some scope for shenanigans at the polling place.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,730

    carnforth said:

    PB.

    One to watch for the future: Keir Mather. Future in the cabinet.

    If Tory mothers were naming their children Winston we’d mock them both. Somehow the Labour Keirs get away with it.
    The only Winstons I've met were named by West Indian mothers.
    I don't think I've ever met a Winston.

    Keir's a crummy name anyway. Much better to name your child 'Kier'
    https://www.kier.co.uk/
    I once met two people called Winston.

    It was a Win/Win situation.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,954
    Eabhal said:

    The Electoral Commission is advertising about photo ID.

    The deadline to apply for free voter ID for the elections on Thursday 2 May is 5pm on Wednesday 24 April.
    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/voting-and-elections/voter-id

    You only need to apply for a Voter Authority Certificate if:

    you do not have accepted photo ID
    you no longer look like the photo on your ID
    the name on your photo ID is different to your name on the electoral register


    Some scope for shenanigans at the polling place.
    Also, this could mean a big rush for provisional driving licences for people who miss the deadline. They typically take 2-3 weeks to arrive, £34.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,147
    Blue sky, blue sea, wispy cloud…welcome to the hottest day of the year (so far)!

    Beautiful! And haven’t we f****** waited for it…

    ‘Sumer is icumen in‘!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,730
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    The Electoral Commission is advertising about photo ID.

    The deadline to apply for free voter ID for the elections on Thursday 2 May is 5pm on Wednesday 24 April.
    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/voting-and-elections/voter-id

    You only need to apply for a Voter Authority Certificate if:

    you do not have accepted photo ID
    you no longer look like the photo on your ID
    the name on your photo ID is different to your name on the electoral register


    Some scope for shenanigans at the polling place.
    Also, this could mean a big rush for provisional driving licences for people who miss the deadline. They typically take 2-3 weeks to arrive, £34.
    That's an extremely subjective test, particularly given how poor many driving licence and passport photos still look nothing like their owners.

    I don't think that's a test that should be applied. Somebody could easily play silly buggers with that for e.g. racism reasons and how do you prove it if they say, 'well, I didn't feel it looked like them?'
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,670
    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    ohnotnow said:

    (Apols about a FPT, but I posted about 30 seconds after the new thread message as per..)

    Ratters said:

    AI hype is a classic case of engineers/coders/tech bros thinking that what most people do in their job on a day basis can just be automated by their latest invention.

    We were supposed to have fully automated self driving cars ago. They seem to be no closer to solving "the last 1%" than they were then, even in more friendly locations in the US vs somewhere harder like London.

    Assisted driving makes life easier for long drives on the motorway. But it's not the revolution of being able to be a passenger idly watching TV that was promised.

    These LLMs will similarly help in creating first drafts of essays, of emails, of music etc. It will make things much more efficient. Some people will lose their jobs. But it won't be a wholesale revolution making 25% of the population redundant.

    Finally - I don't think AGI necessarily means enlightened genius that takes over everything. The current Tory cabinet has general intelligence, but that doesn't make it any less crap.

    And I don't care what 'experts in the field say' as they have made so many incorrect predictions on other forms of AI in the recent past. Only the passage of time will prove me or them to be right or wrong.

    *Ducks*

    Yup.

    The “AI” we have at the moment is fair at some things. It is hopeless at detailed accuracy.

    What it can do is spot patterns or the absence of patterns. So give it a zillion bank transactions and it can spot anomalies. Not all of them, but for fraud detection it’s quite useful for creating alerts for humans to check out.

    An interesting one is giving an LLM a human written essay and asking it what insights and the themes within the topic were *left out*
    It's not just detailed accuracy, it's *any* accuracy. Hence hands with six or seven fingers, or five Beatles, or athletes with missing forearms.

    Indeed, current 'AI' has no idea of the concept of accuracy. Or fingers. Or anything.
    I'm terribly sorry - but that's incorrect. Unless your idea of 'AI' is typing something into ChatGPT/Dalle and then eye-rolling that it wasn't what you wanted.

    The field has progressed well beyond that.

    To be fair to @JosiasJessop he’s not alone. Most of the commenters on the prior thread have no idea of how quickly AI advances in multiple sectors. This explains - in part - the many foolish opinions

    Indeed I have some sympathy. I have the kind of leisured job where I can easily spend half a day catching up with AI developments (and I regularly do). Also I am paid for this; as I am then paid for my opinions on AI

    But if you’re a normal person without many hours to spare wandering the world and reading reddit then AI is advancing so rapidly you can’t keep up. We are getting revelatory improvements almost daily now

    This is what it is like to be on an exponential curve
    You do not know what you're talking about. You are totally clueless. Worse, when people try to tell you where you're going wrong, you ignore them and continue riding the hype train down into the abyss.

    "where I can easily spend half a day catching up with AI developments"

    That's your problem. You read hype and believe it, and you don't have the intelligence to realise it's hype.

    You are a fool.

    I don't think Leon is a fool, though. I think he is doing his research on the internet and is listening to the "most interesting" voices, rather than the "most sober" voices. The sober voices are probably too sober. But in this space (as in crypto before) the most interesting voices are, unfortunately, mostly grifters and the odd fruit loop.
    I read the skeptics as well as the hype-mongers. I read Gary Marcus as well as Kurzweill and Hinton

    The thing I’ve noticed is that the skeptics have been consistently wrong and sometimes humiliatingly so, for the last couple of years. Which says quite a lot

    Eg Yann Lecun. Goes onstage in Dubai and says text-to-video is impossible as things stand, it’s far harder than text-to-image, it needs a new architecture (which he is designing!) blah blah

    Two days later OpenAI announce Sora and make him look like a total fool

    I also think tech people and engineers are sometimes the most clueless about what they themselves are designing. It’s not in their intellectual remit

    Would you ask a guy building one of the first carburetors what will be the impact of the internal combustion engine on American urbanism?

    Of course not. He won’t have a scooby. You need someone with a vastly wider frame of reference. A Renaissance man who has travelled widely and slept with literally hundreds of young women
    I agree that both types of commentator in the wider debate are wildly wrong. I would classify all of them as the interesting voices.

    And yes, you have to apply Clarke's first law to people like Yann LeCun. If an old man says something is impossible, it very probably isn't. It's a joy when it is tested and proven so quickly.

    BTW - I don't know if anyone has suggested this to your.daughter - but don't treat University as vocational training for a job. If it gives her time to develop the ability to think critically and position her to do the jobs are that are basically seeding, sifting, and applying ideas, that's a good place. And do something fun.

    Your list of jobs that were left was interesting because it is a very large category - the jobs where people enjoy interacting with other humans.

    The other ones are jobs where it is difficult or expensive to use a robot.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    edited March 14

    darkage said:

    Regarding AI - I worked out that we could automate a large part of our report writing at work just using a basic version of Chat GPT. The resultant reports would be of a higher quality and accuracy than the written output of the (graduate level) staff doing the work. I haven't suggested it because I know already that the managers won't entertain the idea; but what will happen is the brighter staff will start using it anyway and the change will happen that way.

    Your bosses will love the money they save by sacking the brighter staff for exporting confidential data to ChatGPT Towers in order for it to write those reports. Bosses love short-term savings. It is when companies start self-hosting AI that we need to worry (and to buy shares in Nvidia and the electricity company).
    It is just an evolution of cut and paste but more accurate and less prone to errors. The first draft of the report can be autogenerated then edited outside of the AI system.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,615
    Good morning

    When will this charade end as Sunak and the conservatives continue to fall apart

    If I had any influence I would tell them I agree with Lord Rose and call an election for 2nd May
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,099
    Truman said:

    Very disappointing attendance at Cheltenham races. Sign of the times.

    Official attendance at Cheltenham today was 46,771.

    Comparing to previous Wednesdays, it’s down from 50,387 in 2023 and 64,431 in 2022 (first year after pandemic).

    Worrying.

    #Cheltenham | #CheltenhamFestival

    It was noticeably quieter, which made it a more pleasant experience, but it is an expensive day out
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,147

    Good morning

    When will this charade end as Sunak and the conservatives continue to fall apart

    If I had any influence I would tell them I agree with Lord Rose and call an election for 2nd May

    Meanwhile we can only blame the people who voted them in…..
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,099
    @kitty_donaldson

    EXC via ⁦⁦@alexwickham⁩ & me

    In recent days, Cabinet ministers have held private discussions exploring the possibility the Conservatives might be forced to replace Rishi Sunak before a UK election due later this year

    Angry Tories are comparing No 10’s strategy with Boris Johnson’s defence of Chris Pincher, amid 2022 allegations of sexual misconduct.

    MPs felt burned when they followed the PM in defending a controversial figure only to be left exposed when the leader suddenly changed tack.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,099
    @mikeysmith

    A month ago Tory MPs and senior figures were telling us it was either May or Sunak was at risk of getting ousted before the election. And things have only got worse since then.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,187
    This is every bit as bad as I thought.
    It basically gives ministers the power to ban people or organisations from public life on the basis of little more than their whim.
    And to challenge it, you gave to pay to go to the High Court.

    New extremism definition unveiled by government
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68556914
    ..Under the new definition, which comes into force on Thursday, extremism is "the promotion or advancement of an ideology based on violence, hatred or intolerance, that aims to:
    negate or destroy the fundamental rights and freedoms of others; or
    undermine, overturn or replace the UK's system of liberal parliamentary democracy and democratic rights; or
    intentionally create a permissive environment for others to achieve the results in (1) or (2)."
    The previous definition, introduced in 2011 under the Prevent strategy, described extremism as "vocal or active opposition to fundamental British values, including democracy, the rule of law, individual liberty and mutual respect and tolerance of different faiths and belief".
    The government says the new one is "narrower and more precise" and will help "clearly articulate" how extremism is "evidenced" in behaviours.
    It also says there will be a "high bar" to being classed as extremist and the policy will not target those with "private, peaceful beliefs".
    Organisations or individuals added to the list will not be criminalised, unlike terrorist groups. Instead, they will be barred from contact with government and will not be able to receive government funding.
    Alongside the redefinition, a new unit - the Counter-Extremism Centre of Excellence - has been set up, to gather intelligence and identify extremist groups.
    Groups and individuals labelled extremist have the right to seek reassessment and submit new evidence to a review.
    If they still disagree, they can challenge the government's decision through a potentially costly judicial review...

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,099
    Nigelb said:

    "the promotion or advancement of an ideology based on violence, hatred or intolerance, that aims to:
    negate or destroy the fundamental rights and freedoms of others; or
    undermine, overturn or replace the UK's system of liberal parliamentary democracy and democratic rights; or
    intentionally create a permissive environment for others to achieve the results in (1) or (2)."

    So Brexit qualifies then
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,909

    Nigelb said:

    Denmark to begin conscripting women for the military in rare move
    Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen outlined Danish defense overhaul, with an eye on Russia.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/denmark-extend-military-service-women-conscription/

    Third European country to do so.

    In case of Denmark, could these invidious Nordics be planning an irredentist coup, to regain the Danelaw via surprise invasion, spearheaded by Amazonian shock troops?

    Perhaps, once a beachhead has been established (somewhere near Grimsby?) concealed in actual Amazon vans. (Possibly with connivance of Jeff Bezos?)
    Immingham is one of the big pets on the North Sea coast, just next door to Grimsby.

    The Vikings were attracted to Anglo-Saving England because it was one of the most administratively-efficient states in Christendom, with tax revenue to plunder. I fear we can take the present-day absence of Viking raiders as an indictment of Westminster.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,127

    Nigelb said:

    Denmark to begin conscripting women for the military in rare move
    Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen outlined Danish defense overhaul, with an eye on Russia.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/denmark-extend-military-service-women-conscription/

    Third European country to do so.

    In case of Denmark, could these invidious Nordics be planning an irredentist coup, to regain the Danelaw via surprise invasion, spearheaded by Amazonian shock troops?

    Perhaps, once a beachhead has been established (somewhere near Grimsby?) concealed in actual Amazon vans. (Possibly with connivance of Jeff Bezos?)
    Immingham is one of the big pets on the North Sea coast, just next door to Grimsby.

    The Vikings were attracted to Anglo-Saving England because it was one of the most administratively-efficient states in Christendom, with tax revenue to plunder. I fear we can take the present-day absence of Viking raiders as an indictment of Westminster.
    I for one welcome our Viking overlords and overladies. A vast improvement on the omnicatastrophe of our current government.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Denmark to begin conscripting women for the military in rare move
    Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen outlined Danish defense overhaul, with an eye on Russia.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/denmark-extend-military-service-women-conscription/

    Third European country to do so.

    In case of Denmark, could these invidious Nordics be planning an irredentist coup, to regain the Danelaw via surprise invasion, spearheaded by Amazonian shock troops?

    Perhaps, once a beachhead has been established (somewhere near Grimsby?) concealed in actual Amazon vans. (Possibly with connivance of Jeff Bezos?)
    Immingham is one of the big pets on the North Sea coast, just next door to Grimsby.

    The Vikings were attracted to Anglo-Saving England because it was one of the most administratively-efficient states in Christendom, with tax revenue to plunder. I fear we can take the present-day absence of Viking raiders as an indictment of Westminster.
    I for one welcome our Viking overlords and overladies. A vast improvement on the omnicatastrophe of our current government.
    When theyre burning your house and raping you. will that still be the case ?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,452
    Nigelb said:

    This is every bit as bad as I thought.
    It basically gives ministers the power to ban people or organisations from public life on the basis of little more than their whim.
    And to challenge it, you gave to pay to go to the High Court.

    New extremism definition unveiled by government
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68556914
    ..Under the new definition, which comes into force on Thursday, extremism is "the promotion or advancement of an ideology based on violence, hatred or intolerance, that aims to:
    negate or destroy the fundamental rights and freedoms of others; or
    undermine, overturn or replace the UK's system of liberal parliamentary democracy and democratic rights; or
    intentionally create a permissive environment for others to achieve the results in (1) or (2)."
    The previous definition, introduced in 2011 under the Prevent strategy, described extremism as "vocal or active opposition to fundamental British values, including democracy, the rule of law, individual liberty and mutual respect and tolerance of different faiths and belief".
    The government says the new one is "narrower and more precise" and will help "clearly articulate" how extremism is "evidenced" in behaviours.
    It also says there will be a "high bar" to being classed as extremist and the policy will not target those with "private, peaceful beliefs".
    Organisations or individuals added to the list will not be criminalised, unlike terrorist groups. Instead, they will be barred from contact with government and will not be able to receive government funding.
    Alongside the redefinition, a new unit - the Counter-Extremism Centre of Excellence - has been set up, to gather intelligence and identify extremist groups.
    Groups and individuals labelled extremist have the right to seek reassessment and submit new evidence to a review.
    If they still disagree, they can challenge the government's decision through a potentially costly judicial review...

    Thursday?

    As in today?

    In a democracy, shouldn't we... You know.... Discuss things a bit first?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,099
    ...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,187
    edited March 14
    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    "the promotion or advancement of an ideology based on violence, hatred or intolerance, that aims to:
    negate or destroy the fundamental rights and freedoms of others; or
    undermine, overturn or replace the UK's system of liberal parliamentary democracy and democratic rights; or
    intentionally create a permissive environment for others to achieve the results in (1) or (2)."

    So Brexit qualifies then
    All sorts of things might qualify, if a minister decides they do.

    The problem with the measure is that it creates a non criminal category, adjudicated by ministers - and effectively gives them the power to apply a civil penalty on speech they don't like, which can only be effectively challenged by paying tens of thousands of pounds.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,187

    Nigelb said:

    Denmark to begin conscripting women for the military in rare move
    Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen outlined Danish defense overhaul, with an eye on Russia.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/denmark-extend-military-service-women-conscription/

    Third European country to do so.

    In case of Denmark, could these invidious Nordics be planning an irredentist coup, to regain the Danelaw via surprise invasion, spearheaded by Amazonian shock troops?

    Perhaps, once a beachhead has been established (somewhere near Grimsby?) concealed in actual Amazon vans. (Possibly with connivance of Jeff Bezos?)
    Immingham is one of the big pets on the North Sea coast, just next door to Grimsby.

    The Vikings were attracted to Anglo-Saving England because it was one of the most administratively-efficient states in Christendom, with tax revenue to plunder. I fear we can take the present-day absence of Viking raiders as an indictment of Westminster.
    "Anglo-Saving England" ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,961

    NEW THREAD

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,909
    nico679 said:

    Surely there would be a huge conflict of interest when a major donor gets awarded government contracts.

    Hester's contacts are with GP practices, not central government. So, no conflict of interest. His services do seem to be very profitable, though. One wonders about the value for money.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,127
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    "the promotion or advancement of an ideology based on violence, hatred or intolerance, that aims to:
    negate or destroy the fundamental rights and freedoms of others; or
    undermine, overturn or replace the UK's system of liberal parliamentary democracy and democratic rights; or
    intentionally create a permissive environment for others to achieve the results in (1) or (2)."

    So Brexit qualifies then
    All sorts of things might qualify, if a minister decides they do.

    The problem with the measure is that it creates a non criminal category, adjudicated by ministers - and effectively gives them the power to apply a civil penalty on speech they don't like, which can only be effectively challenged by paying tens of thousands of pounds.

    Our incoming Labour government are going to love these powers.

    Further evidence that we have idiots in government.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,241
    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    "the promotion or advancement of an ideology based on violence, hatred or intolerance, that aims to:
    negate or destroy the fundamental rights and freedoms of others; or
    undermine, overturn or replace the UK's system of liberal parliamentary democracy and democratic rights; or
    intentionally create a permissive environment for others to achieve the results in (1) or (2)."

    So Brexit qualifies then
    Arguably. Advocating leaving ECHR certainly seems to fall into this definition of extremism.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,208
    Article on the current state of Biden-Trump polling:
    https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-leading-polls-plenty-time-biden-catch/story?id=108062780

    It has Trump currently leading Biden by 1.9% national average (other websites have national averages ranging from even to Trump +2.1

    Trump is doing better in the tossup states, except Pennsylvania. Eg current averages:
    Pennsylvania Trump +0.6%
    Wisconsin Trump +3.2%
    Michigan Trump +3.9%

    There's a some discussion on how predictive polls this far out are, whether anyone can predict what kind of bias there will be this year etc.
  • Twickbait_55Twickbait_55 Posts: 127

    Nigelb said:

    This is every bit as bad as I thought.
    It basically gives ministers the power to ban people or organisations from public life on the basis of little more than their whim.
    And to challenge it, you gave to pay to go to the High Court.

    New extremism definition unveiled by government
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68556914
    ..Under the new definition, which comes into force on Thursday, extremism is "the promotion or advancement of an ideology based on violence, hatred or intolerance, that aims to:
    negate or destroy the fundamental rights and freedoms of others; or
    undermine, overturn or replace the UK's system of liberal parliamentary democracy and democratic rights; or
    intentionally create a permissive environment for others to achieve the results in (1) or (2)."
    The previous definition, introduced in 2011 under the Prevent strategy, described extremism as "vocal or active opposition to fundamental British values, including democracy, the rule of law, individual liberty and mutual respect and tolerance of different faiths and belief".
    The government says the new one is "narrower and more precise" and will help "clearly articulate" how extremism is "evidenced" in behaviours.
    It also says there will be a "high bar" to being classed as extremist and the policy will not target those with "private, peaceful beliefs".
    Organisations or individuals added to the list will not be criminalised, unlike terrorist groups. Instead, they will be barred from contact with government and will not be able to receive government funding.
    Alongside the redefinition, a new unit - the Counter-Extremism Centre of Excellence - has been set up, to gather intelligence and identify extremist groups.
    Groups and individuals labelled extremist have the right to seek reassessment and submit new evidence to a review.
    If they still disagree, they can challenge the government's decision through a potentially costly judicial review...

    Thursday?

    As in today?

    In a democracy, shouldn't we... You know.... Discuss things a bit first?
    Democracy? What democracy? Utterly desperate suppression of dissent and democratic freedoms.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,909
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Denmark to begin conscripting women for the military in rare move
    Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen outlined Danish defense overhaul, with an eye on Russia.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/denmark-extend-military-service-women-conscription/

    Third European country to do so.

    In case of Denmark, could these invidious Nordics be planning an irredentist coup, to regain the Danelaw via surprise invasion, spearheaded by Amazonian shock troops?

    Perhaps, once a beachhead has been established (somewhere near Grimsby?) concealed in actual Amazon vans. (Possibly with connivance of Jeff Bezos?)
    Immingham is one of the big pets on the North Sea coast, just next door to Grimsby.

    The Vikings were attracted to Anglo-Saving England because it was one of the most administratively-efficient states in Christendom, with tax revenue to plunder. I fear we can take the present-day absence of Viking raiders as an indictment of Westminster.
    "Anglo-Saving England" ?
    The accuracy of my phone swipe keyboard is deteriorating, and I sometimes forget to check it. Indefensible of me.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    carnforth said:

    PB.

    One to watch for the future: Keir Mather. Future in the cabinet.

    If Tory mothers were naming their children Winston we’d mock them both. Somehow the Labour Keirs get away with it.
    The only Winstons I've met were named by West Indian mothers.
    Or from Hong Kong.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,080

    carnforth said:

    PB.

    One to watch for the future: Keir Mather. Future in the cabinet.

    If Tory mothers were naming their children Winston we’d mock them both. Somehow the Labour Keirs get away with it.
    The only Winstons I've met were named by West Indian mothers.
    I don't think I've ever met a Winston.

    Keir's a crummy name anyway. Much better to name your child 'Kier'
    https://www.kier.co.uk/
    One of my table companion on my recent cruise was called Winston. He was from Guernsey.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    "the promotion or advancement of an ideology based on violence, hatred or intolerance, that aims to:
    negate or destroy the fundamental rights and freedoms of others; or
    undermine, overturn or replace the UK's system of liberal parliamentary democracy and democratic rights; or
    intentionally create a permissive environment for others to achieve the results in (1) or (2)."

    So Brexit qualifies then
    All sorts of things might qualify, if a minister decides they do.

    The problem with the measure is that it creates a non criminal category, adjudicated by ministers - and effectively gives them the power to apply a civil penalty on speech they don't like, which can only be effectively challenged by paying tens of thousands of pounds.

    Our incoming Labour government are going to love these powers.

    Further evidence that we have idiots in government.
    Not really. The free speech on the likes of twitter and tiktok is terrifying the establishment now. Hence moves in the uS to ban tiktok and now this.
  • TrumanTruman Posts: 279

    Nigelb said:

    This is every bit as bad as I thought.
    It basically gives ministers the power to ban people or organisations from public life on the basis of little more than their whim.
    And to challenge it, you gave to pay to go to the High Court.

    New extremism definition unveiled by government
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68556914
    ..Under the new definition, which comes into force on Thursday, extremism is "the promotion or advancement of an ideology based on violence, hatred or intolerance, that aims to:
    negate or destroy the fundamental rights and freedoms of others; or
    undermine, overturn or replace the UK's system of liberal parliamentary democracy and democratic rights; or
    intentionally create a permissive environment for others to achieve the results in (1) or (2)."
    The previous definition, introduced in 2011 under the Prevent strategy, described extremism as "vocal or active opposition to fundamental British values, including democracy, the rule of law, individual liberty and mutual respect and tolerance of different faiths and belief".
    The government says the new one is "narrower and more precise" and will help "clearly articulate" how extremism is "evidenced" in behaviours.
    It also says there will be a "high bar" to being classed as extremist and the policy will not target those with "private, peaceful beliefs".
    Organisations or individuals added to the list will not be criminalised, unlike terrorist groups. Instead, they will be barred from contact with government and will not be able to receive government funding.
    Alongside the redefinition, a new unit - the Counter-Extremism Centre of Excellence - has been set up, to gather intelligence and identify extremist groups.
    Groups and individuals labelled extremist have the right to seek reassessment and submit new evidence to a review.
    If they still disagree, they can challenge the government's decision through a potentially costly judicial review...

    Thursday?

    As in today?

    In a democracy, shouldn't we... You know.... Discuss things a bit first?
    Sadly our "democracy" such as it is is fraying badly now.
This discussion has been closed.