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Ayrshire hotelier wins the GOP nomination – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,917
edited March 24 in General
Ayrshire hotelier wins the GOP nomination – politicalbetting.com

Breaking: It’s official—President Biden and Donald Trump have clinched the nominations. And the first presidential election rematch since 1956 now begins. https://t.co/qwLw26vucl https://t.co/qwLw26vucl

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883

    I hope people appreciate the Scottish angle to this thread.

    And remember that Biden is a proud great-x-grandson of England.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,437
    Sky News currently showing the abuse Zara Sultana gets
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,438
    Has there ever been a Presidential election in which a strong possibility is that it will be decided by one of the candidates proving manifestly unable to serve?

    O/T: does anyone understand what is happening in Haiti? I get that gangs have forced out the Prime Minister, but what is their desired outcome? Do the gang leaders want to form a Government, or are they demanding a new Government with gang-friendly legislation, or what?
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 26,061
    Can anyone believe that the Metropolitan Police have still not answered THE fundamental question:

    How could police at the most-policed venue in the UK - Downing Street - have not noticed the daily lockdown parties that broke the law?

    https://twitter.com/marcuschown/status/1767863818581938601

    OK, it's not the most timely tweet X'd today but PB's physics nerds will recognise the author of popular books about gravity and quantum mechanics.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,502
    Yes whether Haley voters go for Biden or Trump will likely decide the presidential election, especially as they include a large number of Independents
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,502

    Has there ever been a Presidential election in which a strong possibility is that it will be decided by one of the candidates proving manifestly unable to serve?

    O/T: does anyone understand what is happening in Haiti? I get that gangs have forced out the Prime Minister, but what is their desired outcome? Do the gang leaders want to form a Government, or are they demanding a new Government with gang-friendly legislation, or what?

    I can see a US intervention or a military coup if the gangs push too hard
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 16,372
    @malcolmg is a hotelier?
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    edited March 13

    O/T: does anyone understand what is happening in Haiti? I get that gangs have forced out the Prime Minister, but what is their desired outcome? Do the gang leaders want to form a Government, or are they demanding a new Government with gang-friendly legislation, or what?

    I think the gang leaders were mostly opposed to the status quo - they didn't like the idea of the state putting some of their members in prison, for example - and so they have overthrown the state to free themselves from its interference.

    I doubt they have a well-worked out prospectus for the aftermath. There wasn't one for Iraq in 2003, or for Brexit in 2016. Why would the Haitian gang leaders have one?
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    On topic. Ayrshire hotelier 🤣
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,171

    O/T: does anyone understand what is happening in Haiti? I get that gangs have forced out the Prime Minister, but what is their desired outcome? Do the gang leaders want to form a Government, or are they demanding a new Government with gang-friendly legislation, or what?

    I think the gang leaders were mostly opposed to the status quo - they didn't like the idea of the state putting some of their members in prison, for example - and so they have overthrown the state to free themselves from its interference.

    I doubt they have a well-worked out prospectus for the aftermath. There wasn't one for Iraq in 2003, or for Brexit in 2016. Why would the Haitian gang leaders have one?

    O/T: does anyone understand what is happening in Haiti? I get that gangs have forced out the Prime Minister, but what is their desired outcome? Do the gang leaders want to form a Government, or are they demanding a new Government with gang-friendly legislation, or what?

    I think the gang leaders were mostly opposed to the status quo - they didn't like the idea of the state putting some of their members in prison, for example - and so they have overthrown the state to free themselves from its interference.

    I doubt they have a well-worked out prospectus for the aftermath. There wasn't one for Iraq in 2003, or for Brexit in 2016. Why would the Haitian gang leaders have one?
    I don’t think we can really compare the Haitian gangs to the Brexiteers after the referendum!

    I mean, the Haitian gangs are clearly way more effective…
  • Options
    SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 647
    edited March 13

    I hope people appreciate the Scottish angle to this thread.

    And remember that Biden is a proud great-x-grandson of England.
    Some of his ancestors lived in the village half a mile from me. A couple are buried in the local Churchyard.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,908
    HYUFD said:

    Yes whether Haley voters go for Biden or Trump will likely decide the presidential election, especially as they include a large number of Independents

    Given Haley got 60K plus votes in Georgia, after pulling out of the race, it doesn't take a mastermind to work out it's unlikely to be for Trump.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    PMQs bingo.

    Starmer is 100% going to mention he was head of the CPS.

    But will he push for a May 2nd election? Or Labour now loving the idea of Autumn election and big majority?
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    The Festival Day 2. 🐎
    Was looking forward to action packed salmagundi Wednesday, a bumper, the cross country, and after bookies stung yesterday by favourites winning sometimes a little too easy imo, today the races are a lot more competitive and I think some surprises.

    But no cross county 😭. It’s waterlogged. I love the cross country “as they come off the embankment, they will cut through Mrs Miggins Tea Garden, up to the Elephant next, round the castle, and will take on the proverbial conifers.” Also, a 3m5f country chase through heavy mud that still doesn’t have a handicap on it, Coko Beach was absolutely nailed on, my Napoleon.

    It was dry overnight and shouldn’t rain this afternoon. On the main courses they are saying the going is soft, heavy in places - but arguably they shouldn’t have started with that going yesterday only to change after two races.

    And my tips for today. With those revised times, though your bookmaker like mine might not be using them

    Cheltenham 1.45 - Handstands
    Cheltenham 2.30 - Stay Away Fay
    Cheltenham 3.15 - Da Capo Glory e/w
    Cheltenham 4.00 - Elixir De Nutz
    Cheltenham 4:50 - Madara
    Cheltenham 5.30 - Romeo Coolio

    Have a good afternoon 🙂
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,048

    Sky News currently showing the abuse Zara Sultana gets

    Trying to work out whether I can do a 'currant' or 'fruitcake' joke or whether it's in bad taste - need to first look into the level and nature of abuse she's been receiving, I guess :disappointed:
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,437
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes whether Haley voters go for Biden or Trump will likely decide the presidential election, especially as they include a large number of Independents

    Given Haley got 60K plus votes in Georgia, after pulling out of the race, it doesn't take a mastermind to work out it's unlikely to be for Trump.
    Would many postal votes be in before she pulled out?
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,048

    Has there ever been a Presidential election in which a strong possibility is that it will be decided by one of the candidates proving manifestly unable to serve?

    O/T: does anyone understand what is happening in Haiti? I get that gangs have forced out the Prime Minister, but what is their desired outcome? Do the gang leaders want to form a Government, or are they demanding a new Government with gang-friendly legislation, or what?

    On the O/T, unfortunately in my lifetime experience of Haiti it all seems to be summed up by 'SNAFU' :disappointed: Beyond that, I'm as confused as you are.
  • Options
    PhilPhil Posts: 2,122
    edited March 13

    @foxinsoxuk It's a feature of the modern era, from Manchester United, to Spire Hospitals to Morrisons. Its also an issue behind the inflated Vets fees in the news this week, contracts for children's institutional care, General Practice etc.

    The common factor is Private Equity taking over and looting the system with financial engineering and charges delivered by a casualised and dumbed down workforce. There is little or no attempt at improving the quality or competitiveness of the business. Its how we end up increasing spending and getting a shit service.

    As i say unacceptable face of Capitalism

    Wrong, it is brilliant, it has screwed Manchester United for the last twenty years.
    It only took Clayton Dubilier & Rice three years to trash Morrisons though.

    The original owners (presumably mostly the family?) sold to the highest bidder. CD&R have proved so wildly incompetent that they took a profitable business that was subject to a bidding war to near bankruptcy.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,429

    Can anyone believe that the Metropolitan Police have still not answered THE fundamental question:

    How could police at the most-policed venue in the UK - Downing Street - have not noticed the daily lockdown parties that broke the law?

    https://twitter.com/marcuschown/status/1767863818581938601

    OK, it's not the most timely tweet X'd today but PB's physics nerds will recognise the author of popular books about gravity and quantum mechanics.

    Noticing would have broken the truce between police and the government.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,437
    edited March 13
    Selebian said:

    Sky News currently showing the abuse Zara Sultana gets

    Trying to work out whether I can do a 'currant' or 'fruitcake' joke or whether it's in bad taste - need to first look into the level and nature of abuse she's been receiving, I guess :disappointed:
    DA is unable to calculate the amount of abuse she has received!
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,708

    Can anyone believe that the Metropolitan Police have still not answered THE fundamental question:

    How could police at the most-policed venue in the UK - Downing Street - have not noticed the daily lockdown parties that broke the law?

    https://twitter.com/marcuschown/status/1767863818581938601

    OK, it's not the most timely tweet X'd today but PB's physics nerds will recognise the author of popular books about gravity and quantum mechanics.

    Noticing would have broken the truce between police and the government.
    As opposed to breaking quantum symmetry, obvs.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,048
    Phil said:

    @foxinsoxuk It's a feature of the modern era, from Manchester United, to Spire Hospitals to Morrisons. Its also an issue behind the inflated Vets fees in the news this week, contracts for children's institutional care, General Practice etc.

    The common factor is Private Equity taking over and looting the system with financial engineering and charges delivered by a casualised and dumbed down workforce. There is little or no attempt at improving the quality or competitiveness of the business. Its how we end up increasing spending and getting a shit service.

    As i say unacceptable face of Capitalism

    Wrong, it is brilliant, it has screwed Manchester United for the last twenty years.
    It only took Clayton Dubilier & Rice three years to trash Morrisons though.

    The original private owners (presumably the family?) sold to the highest bidder. CD&R have proved so wildly incompetent that they took a profitable business that was subject to a bidding war to near bankruptcy.
    To judge whether incompetence, one first needs to look at how the financial situation of CD&R has been affected by their ownership of Morrisons.

    I'm not sure how it would be drafted, but there does seem to be a need to be able to penalise thosewho strip money from a business which then fails, without penalising those who are unlucky (or even just honestly incompetent). We've seen a lot of 'failures' where the business owners have done very nicely, thank you.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 40,224

    The Festival Day 2. 🐎
    Was looking forward to action packed salmagundi Wednesday, a bumper, the cross country, and after bookies stung yesterday by favourites winning sometimes a little too easy imo, today the races are a lot more competitive and I think some surprises.

    But no cross county 😭. It’s waterlogged. I love the cross country “as they come off the embankment, they will cut through Mrs Miggins Tea Garden, up to the Elephant next, round the castle, and will take on the proverbial conifers.” Also, a 3m5f country chase through heavy mud that still doesn’t have a handicap on it, Coko Beach was absolutely nailed on, my Napoleon.

    It was dry overnight and shouldn’t rain this afternoon. On the main courses they are saying the going is soft, heavy in places - but arguably they shouldn’t have started with that going yesterday only to change after two races.

    And my tips for today. With those revised times, though your bookmaker like mine might not be using them

    Cheltenham 1.45 - Handstands
    Cheltenham 2.30 - Stay Away Fay
    Cheltenham 3.15 - Da Capo Glory e/w
    Cheltenham 4.00 - Elixir De Nutz
    Cheltenham 4:50 - Madara
    Cheltenham 5.30 - Romeo Coolio

    Have a good afternoon 🙂

    Cheers. And it's always good, the Festival, but I really don't like it that in just about every Grade 1 race there's an odds-on favourite from the same single trainer. That's not what you want in the sport.
  • Options
    TrumanTruman Posts: 279

    @foxinsoxuk It's a feature of the modern era, from Manchester United, to Spire Hospitals to Morrisons. Its also an issue behind the inflated Vets fees in the news this week, contracts for children's institutional care, General Practice etc.

    The common factor is Private Equity taking over and looting the system with financial engineering and charges delivered by a casualised and dumbed down workforce. There is little or no attempt at improving the quality or competitiveness of the business. Its how we end up increasing spending and getting a shit service.

    As i say unacceptable face of Capitalism

    Indeed totally unacceptable and immoral. This sort of thing turns people against capitalism as it is practiced in the west and looking for a better system.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,437
    Phil said:

    @foxinsoxuk It's a feature of the modern era, from Manchester United, to Spire Hospitals to Morrisons. Its also an issue behind the inflated Vets fees in the news this week, contracts for children's institutional care, General Practice etc.

    The common factor is Private Equity taking over and looting the system with financial engineering and charges delivered by a casualised and dumbed down workforce. There is little or no attempt at improving the quality or competitiveness of the business. Its how we end up increasing spending and getting a shit service.

    As i say unacceptable face of Capitalism

    Wrong, it is brilliant, it has screwed Manchester United for the last twenty years.
    It only took Clayton Dubilier & Rice three years to trash Morrisons though.

    The original owners (presumably mostly the family?) sold to the highest bidder. CD&R have proved so wildly incompetent that they took a profitable business that was subject to a bidding war to near bankruptcy.
    By loading it with debt and selling and leasing back its assets.

    Just shouldn't be allowed.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    edited March 13

    O/T: does anyone understand what is happening in Haiti? I get that gangs have forced out the Prime Minister, but what is their desired outcome? Do the gang leaders want to form a Government, or are they demanding a new Government with gang-friendly legislation, or what?

    I think the gang leaders were mostly opposed to the status quo - they didn't like the idea of the state putting some of their members in prison, for example - and so they have overthrown the state to free themselves from its interference.

    I doubt they have a well-worked out prospectus for the aftermath. There wasn't one for Iraq in 2003, or for Brexit in 2016. Why would the Haitian gang leaders have one?
    I don’t think we can really compare the Haitian gangs to the Brexiteers after the referendum!

    I mean, the Haitian gangs are clearly way more effective…
    There's a relevant comparison with the discussions we've had over election timing too. A lot of the time we're making the implicit assumption that Sunak is a rational actor making logical decisions to maximise his desired outcome, whether that is time in office, number of Tory MPs in the next Parliament, or probability of being PM after the election.

    But what if his decision-making is governed by less rational concerns? He might do something unexpected and seemingly irrational because we've missed the basis on which he is making the decision.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    Truman said:

    @foxinsoxuk It's a feature of the modern era, from Manchester United, to Spire Hospitals to Morrisons. Its also an issue behind the inflated Vets fees in the news this week, contracts for children's institutional care, General Practice etc.

    The common factor is Private Equity taking over and looting the system with financial engineering and charges delivered by a casualised and dumbed down workforce. There is little or no attempt at improving the quality or competitiveness of the business. Its how we end up increasing spending and getting a shit service.

    As i say unacceptable face of Capitalism

    Indeed totally unacceptable and immoral. This sort of thing turns people against capitalism as it is practiced in the west and looking for a better system.
    They should look to Russia to see a system that works so much better.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,048

    Selebian said:

    Sky News currently showing the abuse Zara Sultana gets

    Trying to work out whether I can do a 'currant' or 'fruitcake' joke or whether it's in bad taste - need to first look into the level and nature of abuse she's been receiving, I guess :disappointed:
    DA is unable to calculate the amount of abuse she has received!
    Just watched it.

    No jokes. That really sucks.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,331
    I've just tried on my new fetish gear.

    I mean, trisuit and wetsuit. :)
  • Options
    TrumanTruman Posts: 279

    Phil said:

    @foxinsoxuk It's a feature of the modern era, from Manchester United, to Spire Hospitals to Morrisons. Its also an issue behind the inflated Vets fees in the news this week, contracts for children's institutional care, General Practice etc.

    The common factor is Private Equity taking over and looting the system with financial engineering and charges delivered by a casualised and dumbed down workforce. There is little or no attempt at improving the quality or competitiveness of the business. Its how we end up increasing spending and getting a shit service.

    As i say unacceptable face of Capitalism

    Wrong, it is brilliant, it has screwed Manchester United for the last twenty years.
    It only took Clayton Dubilier & Rice three years to trash Morrisons though.

    The original owners (presumably mostly the family?) sold to the highest bidder. CD&R have proved so wildly incompetent that they took a profitable business that was subject to a bidding war to near bankruptcy.
    By loading it with debt and selling and leasing back its assets.

    Just shouldn't be allowed.
    Im sure the executives got massive pay days though so it worked for them. People wonder why there is such anger in the country when things like this happen.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    Selebian said:

    Phil said:

    @foxinsoxuk It's a feature of the modern era, from Manchester United, to Spire Hospitals to Morrisons. Its also an issue behind the inflated Vets fees in the news this week, contracts for children's institutional care, General Practice etc.

    The common factor is Private Equity taking over and looting the system with financial engineering and charges delivered by a casualised and dumbed down workforce. There is little or no attempt at improving the quality or competitiveness of the business. Its how we end up increasing spending and getting a shit service.

    As i say unacceptable face of Capitalism

    Wrong, it is brilliant, it has screwed Manchester United for the last twenty years.
    It only took Clayton Dubilier & Rice three years to trash Morrisons though.

    The original private owners (presumably the family?) sold to the highest bidder. CD&R have proved so wildly incompetent that they took a profitable business that was subject to a bidding war to near bankruptcy.
    To judge whether incompetence, one first needs to look at how the financial situation of CD&R has been affected by their ownership of Morrisons.

    I'm not sure how it would be drafted, but there does seem to be a need to be able to penalise thosewho strip money from a business which then fails, without penalising those who are unlucky (or even just honestly incompetent). We've seen a lot of 'failures' where the business owners have done very nicely, thank you.
    The thing that confuses me about these is that a lot of bad debt seems to be created. The model seems to be to walk away from massive amounts of debt when the business goes bankrupt. So you would think that the lenders would cotton on and stop lending to these outfits. Why isn't that happening?
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,437
    Morrisons was acquired by CD&R in October 2021 for £7 billion, in a debt-fuelled deal led by former Tesco boss Sir Terry Leahy.

    The deal saw £6.1 billion of debt piled onto Morrisons’ balance sheet, resulting in large interest payments and high exposure to increases in borrowing rates.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,171
    Selebian said:

    Phil said:

    @foxinsoxuk It's a feature of the modern era, from Manchester United, to Spire Hospitals to Morrisons. Its also an issue behind the inflated Vets fees in the news this week, contracts for children's institutional care, General Practice etc.

    The common factor is Private Equity taking over and looting the system with financial engineering and charges delivered by a casualised and dumbed down workforce. There is little or no attempt at improving the quality or competitiveness of the business. Its how we end up increasing spending and getting a shit service.

    As i say unacceptable face of Capitalism

    Wrong, it is brilliant, it has screwed Manchester United for the last twenty years.
    It only took Clayton Dubilier & Rice three years to trash Morrisons though.

    The original private owners (presumably the family?) sold to the highest bidder. CD&R have proved so wildly incompetent that they took a profitable business that was subject to a bidding war to near bankruptcy.
    To judge whether incompetence, one first needs to look at how the financial situation of CD&R has been affected by their ownership of Morrisons.

    I'm not sure how it would be drafted, but there does seem to be a need to be able to penalise thosewho strip money from a business which then fails, without penalising those who are unlucky (or even just honestly incompetent). We've seen a lot of 'failures' where the business owners have done very nicely, thank you.
    I would start with the German system of compulsory workers’ boards being involved in governance, who can act as a brake on rapacious owners.
  • Options
    TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    Speaking of unacceptable face of capitalism this guy doesnt live in the real world.

    Ben Shapiro on Medicare and Social Security: "No one in the United States should be retiring at 65 years old. Frankly, I think retirement itself is a stupid idea unless you have some sort of health problem."

    https://x.com/mmfa/status/1767580260642467895?s=20
  • Options
    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    O/T: does anyone understand what is happening in Haiti? I get that gangs have forced out the Prime Minister, but what is their desired outcome? Do the gang leaders want to form a Government, or are they demanding a new Government with gang-friendly legislation, or what?

    I think the gang leaders were mostly opposed to the status quo - they didn't like the idea of the state putting some of their members in prison, for example - and so they have overthrown the state to free themselves from its interference.

    I doubt they have a well-worked out prospectus for the aftermath. There wasn't one for Iraq in 2003, or for Brexit in 2016. Why would the Haitian gang leaders have one?
    I don’t think we can really compare the Haitian gangs to the Brexiteers after the referendum!

    I mean, the Haitian gangs are clearly way more effective…
    There's a relevant comparison with the discussions we've had over election timing too. A lot of the time we're making the implicit assumption that Sunak is a rational actor making logical decisions to maximise his desired outcome, whether that is time in office, number of Tory MPs in the next Parliament, or probability of being PM after the election.

    But what if his decision-making is governed by less rational concerns? He might do something unexpected and seemingly irrational because we've missed the basis on which he is making the decision.
    Yes, I think there is a small chance of the following sequence of events unfolding at the beginning of May:

    Friday May 3rd - worst local election results for the Tories since the Stone Age - airwaves filled with defeated candidates - and the usual suspects on the backbenches - blaming Sunak

    Tuesday May 7th - after a weekend of plotting, counter- plotting, formation of circular firing squads etc Graham Brady asks for a meeting with Sunak to inform him that 53 NC letters have been received

    Wednesday May 8th - Sunak announces that Parliament will be dissolved immediately and a general election will be called for late June.

  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,908
    Putin: “It would be ridiculous for us to start negotiating with Ukraine just because it’s running out of ammunition.”
    Republican leadership of the House cutting off military supplies to Ukraine has made Putin drop his pretense about desiring peace talks. He wants it all.

    https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1767824155108311284
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,171

    O/T: does anyone understand what is happening in Haiti? I get that gangs have forced out the Prime Minister, but what is their desired outcome? Do the gang leaders want to form a Government, or are they demanding a new Government with gang-friendly legislation, or what?

    I think the gang leaders were mostly opposed to the status quo - they didn't like the idea of the state putting some of their members in prison, for example - and so they have overthrown the state to free themselves from its interference.

    I doubt they have a well-worked out prospectus for the aftermath. There wasn't one for Iraq in 2003, or for Brexit in 2016. Why would the Haitian gang leaders have one?
    I don’t think we can really compare the Haitian gangs to the Brexiteers after the referendum!

    I mean, the Haitian gangs are clearly way more effective…
    There's a relevant comparison with the discussions we've had over election timing too. A lot of the time we're making the implicit assumption that Sunak is a rational actor making logical decisions to maximise his desired outcome, whether that is time in office, number of Tory MPs in the next Parliament, or probability of being PM after the election.

    But what if his decision-making is governed by less rational concerns? He might do something unexpected and seemingly irrational because we've missed the basis on which he is making the decision.
    Yes, I think there is a small chance of the following sequence of events unfolding at the beginning of May:

    Friday May 3rd - worst local election results for the Tories since the Stone Age - airwaves filled with defeated candidates - and the usual suspects on the backbenches - blaming Sunak

    Tuesday May 7th - after a weekend of plotting, counter- plotting, formation of circular firing squads etc Graham Brady asks for a meeting with Sunak to inform him that 53 NC letters have been received

    Wednesday May 8th - Sunak announces that Parliament will be dissolved immediately and a general election will be called for late June.

    Sunak is still no longer Conservative Party leader in this scenario. It’s just that the leadership contest will take place at the same time as the election campaign.
  • Options
    TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    Nigelb said:

    Putin: “It would be ridiculous for us to start negotiating with Ukraine just because it’s running out of ammunition.”
    Republican leadership of the House cutting off military supplies to Ukraine has made Putin drop his pretense about desiring peace talks. He wants it all.

    https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1767824155108311284

    Well obviously if you think you are winning you are less inclined to negotiate Or do you think Putin is just a nice guy who will roll over because the west is tired of this war.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,123
    Bet Sunak is bloody seething about Hunt's wild promise to get rid of NI.

    Labour can hammer this all the way until Jan 2025.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,022
    Truman said:

    Speaking of unacceptable face of capitalism this guy doesnt live in the real world.

    Ben Shapiro on Medicare and Social Security: "No one in the United States should be retiring at 65 years old. Frankly, I think retirement itself is a stupid idea unless you have some sort of health problem."

    https://x.com/mmfa/status/1767580260642467895?s=20

    Ben Shapiro ! With Nikki Haley gone, he's got his old platform back pumping that particular brand of neoliberal slime.

    Probably one of the most disliked people in the USA tbh.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,123
    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    6m
    Genuine Blair moment from Starmer: “He’s scared of his party. I’ve changed my party”
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,708
    Selebian said:

    I hope people appreciate the Scottish angle to this thread.

    I'd still like a thread header on one of Vanguard, Victorious, Vigilant or Vengeance - you know, a Scottish sub sample :smiley:
    Especially given the contrast between ScotLab and BritLab on the matter.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 26,554

    O/T: does anyone understand what is happening in Haiti? I get that gangs have forced out the Prime Minister, but what is their desired outcome? Do the gang leaders want to form a Government, or are they demanding a new Government with gang-friendly legislation, or what?

    I think the gang leaders were mostly opposed to the status quo - they didn't like the idea of the state putting some of their members in prison, for example - and so they have overthrown the state to free themselves from its interference.

    I doubt they have a well-worked out prospectus for the aftermath. There wasn't one for Iraq in 2003, or for Brexit in 2016. Why would the Haitian gang leaders have one?
    I don’t think we can really compare the Haitian gangs to the Brexiteers after the referendum!

    I mean, the Haitian gangs are clearly way more effective…
    There's a relevant comparison with the discussions we've had over election timing too. A lot of the time we're making the implicit assumption that Sunak is a rational actor making logical decisions to maximise his desired outcome, whether that is time in office, number of Tory MPs in the next Parliament, or probability of being PM after the election.

    But what if his decision-making is governed by less rational concerns? He might do something unexpected and seemingly irrational because we've missed the basis on which he is making the decision.
    Yes, I think there is a small chance of the following sequence of events unfolding at the beginning of May:

    Friday May 3rd - worst local election results for the Tories since the Stone Age - airwaves filled with defeated candidates - and the usual suspects on the backbenches - blaming Sunak

    Tuesday May 7th - after a weekend of plotting, counter- plotting, formation of circular firing squads etc Graham Brady asks for a meeting with Sunak to inform him that 53 NC letters have been received

    Wednesday May 8th - Sunak announces that Parliament will be dissolved immediately and a general election will be called for late June.

    Sunak is still no longer Conservative Party leader in this scenario. It’s just that the leadership contest will take place at the same time as the election campaign.
    He would be if the vote of no confidence doesn’t take place which would be the likely result of an election being called there and then.

    Because the other option would be for the election campaign to be being held as the Torys selected a new leader - which would definitely be fun for the lols but would result in the Tories getting about 2 seats at the next election
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,883
    Nigelb said:

    New paper in Heart compares vaccinated to unvaccinated with respect to cardiovascular events including myocardial infarction, heart failure, arrhythmia/cardiac arrest, myocarditis and clotting events including strokes, thrombosis deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, and venous thromboembolism through 1, 2, 6, and 12 months in electronic medical record cohorts of 20 million from UK, Spain and Estonia...
    https://twitter.com/jsm2334/status/1767713307274698982

    Nearly 5 times as many coronary events in the 30 days after Covid infection among unvaccinated cohort.

    Something to reassure @isam that he made the right decision having the Covid vaccination.
  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,193

    Phil said:

    @foxinsoxuk It's a feature of the modern era, from Manchester United, to Spire Hospitals to Morrisons. Its also an issue behind the inflated Vets fees in the news this week, contracts for children's institutional care, General Practice etc.

    The common factor is Private Equity taking over and looting the system with financial engineering and charges delivered by a casualised and dumbed down workforce. There is little or no attempt at improving the quality or competitiveness of the business. Its how we end up increasing spending and getting a shit service.

    As i say unacceptable face of Capitalism

    Wrong, it is brilliant, it has screwed Manchester United for the last twenty years.
    It only took Clayton Dubilier & Rice three years to trash Morrisons though.

    The original owners (presumably mostly the family?) sold to the highest bidder. CD&R have proved so wildly incompetent that they took a profitable business that was subject to a bidding war to near bankruptcy.
    By loading it with debt and selling and leasing back its assets.

    Just shouldn't be allowed.
    Which is why we should always have non-trivial interest rates.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,171

    O/T: does anyone understand what is happening in Haiti? I get that gangs have forced out the Prime Minister, but what is their desired outcome? Do the gang leaders want to form a Government, or are they demanding a new Government with gang-friendly legislation, or what?

    I think the gang leaders were mostly opposed to the status quo - they didn't like the idea of the state putting some of their members in prison, for example - and so they have overthrown the state to free themselves from its interference.

    I doubt they have a well-worked out prospectus for the aftermath. There wasn't one for Iraq in 2003, or for Brexit in 2016. Why would the Haitian gang leaders have one?
    I don’t think we can really compare the Haitian gangs to the Brexiteers after the referendum!

    I mean, the Haitian gangs are clearly way more effective…
    There's a relevant comparison with the discussions we've had over election timing too. A lot of the time we're making the implicit assumption that Sunak is a rational actor making logical decisions to maximise his desired outcome, whether that is time in office, number of Tory MPs in the next Parliament, or probability of being PM after the election.

    But what if his decision-making is governed by less rational concerns? He might do something unexpected and seemingly irrational because we've missed the basis on which he is making the decision.
    Yes, I think there is a small chance of the following sequence of events unfolding at the beginning of May:

    Friday May 3rd - worst local election results for the Tories since the Stone Age - airwaves filled with defeated candidates - and the usual suspects on the backbenches - blaming Sunak

    Tuesday May 7th - after a weekend of plotting, counter- plotting, formation of circular firing squads etc Graham Brady asks for a meeting with Sunak to inform him that 53 NC letters have been received

    Wednesday May 8th - Sunak announces that Parliament will be dissolved immediately and a general election will be called for late June.

    Sunak is still no longer Conservative Party leader in this scenario. It’s just that the leadership contest will take place at the same time as the election campaign.
    Sorry, that’s wrong. There’d still be a vote of confidence in Sunak, at the same time as the election campaign begins. The result of that could see Sunak out as leader.
  • Options
    PhilPhil Posts: 2,122
    edited March 13

    Bet Sunak is bloody seething about Hunt's wild promise to get rid of NI.

    Labour can hammer this all the way until Jan 2025.

    The irony of this is that it’s a good policy: NI & income tax should be merged.

    The fact that neither party can advocate for this without people going nuts is the real problem.
  • Options
    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    O/T: does anyone understand what is happening in Haiti? I get that gangs have forced out the Prime Minister, but what is their desired outcome? Do the gang leaders want to form a Government, or are they demanding a new Government with gang-friendly legislation, or what?

    I think the gang leaders were mostly opposed to the status quo - they didn't like the idea of the state putting some of their members in prison, for example - and so they have overthrown the state to free themselves from its interference.

    I doubt they have a well-worked out prospectus for the aftermath. There wasn't one for Iraq in 2003, or for Brexit in 2016. Why would the Haitian gang leaders have one?
    I don’t think we can really compare the Haitian gangs to the Brexiteers after the referendum!

    I mean, the Haitian gangs are clearly way more effective…
    There's a relevant comparison with the discussions we've had over election timing too. A lot of the time we're making the implicit assumption that Sunak is a rational actor making logical decisions to maximise his desired outcome, whether that is time in office, number of Tory MPs in the next Parliament, or probability of being PM after the election.

    But what if his decision-making is governed by less rational concerns? He might do something unexpected and seemingly irrational because we've missed the basis on which he is making the decision.
    Yes, I think there is a small chance of the following sequence of events unfolding at the beginning of May:

    Friday May 3rd - worst local election results for the Tories since the Stone Age - airwaves filled with defeated candidates - and the usual suspects on the backbenches - blaming Sunak

    Tuesday May 7th - after a weekend of plotting, counter- plotting, formation of circular firing squads etc Graham Brady asks for a meeting with Sunak to inform him that 53 NC letters have been received

    Wednesday May 8th - Sunak announces that Parliament will be dissolved immediately and a general election will be called for late June.

    Sunak is still no longer Conservative Party leader in this scenario. It’s just that the leadership contest will take place at the same time as the election campaign.
    I assumed he would remain leader until a VONC could be held by MPs. And even the Tories would not be suicidal enough to start an election campaign by holding a VONC in the leader so MPs would be forced to withdraw the letters.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 41,708

    Phil said:

    @foxinsoxuk It's a feature of the modern era, from Manchester United, to Spire Hospitals to Morrisons. Its also an issue behind the inflated Vets fees in the news this week, contracts for children's institutional care, General Practice etc.

    The common factor is Private Equity taking over and looting the system with financial engineering and charges delivered by a casualised and dumbed down workforce. There is little or no attempt at improving the quality or competitiveness of the business. Its how we end up increasing spending and getting a shit service.

    As i say unacceptable face of Capitalism

    Wrong, it is brilliant, it has screwed Manchester United for the last twenty years.
    It only took Clayton Dubilier & Rice three years to trash Morrisons though.

    The original owners (presumably mostly the family?) sold to the highest bidder. CD&R have proved so wildly incompetent that they took a profitable business that was subject to a bidding war to near bankruptcy.
    By loading it with debt and selling and leasing back its assets.

    Just shouldn't be allowed.
    Which is why we should always have non-trivial interest rates.
    But they can force whatever interest rate they like, can't they? Neaver mind what is happening in the real world.

    Like HMG and student loans.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,462

    Nigelb said:

    New paper in Heart compares vaccinated to unvaccinated with respect to cardiovascular events including myocardial infarction, heart failure, arrhythmia/cardiac arrest, myocarditis and clotting events including strokes, thrombosis deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, and venous thromboembolism through 1, 2, 6, and 12 months in electronic medical record cohorts of 20 million from UK, Spain and Estonia...
    https://twitter.com/jsm2334/status/1767713307274698982

    Nearly 5 times as many coronary events in the 30 days after Covid infection among unvaccinated cohort.

    Something to reassure @isam that he made the right decision having the Covid vaccination.
    I'd love to hear Truman's views on this topic!
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,237
    PMQs - this is utterly brutal.

    I think Rishi is toast.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588
    edited March 13
    WRT to discussion about abuse of politicians, obviously most of the worst of it is done by the small number of loser noxious people who have always existed and never mattered much but now have a global platform via social media.

    As to the rest of it, two points.

    Abuse of politicians is going to be fair game as long as politicians abuse each other. Listen to Trump. Listen to PMQs. Etc.

    Secondly, voters are locked into a destructive cycle with politicians. They believe, with evidence, that they will lose elections unless they lie, distort, evade, ignore etc. Almost any interview with almost any politician has some unsatisfactory element to it. This leads to contempt on all sides. This leads to abuse. Even PB is not completely immune.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,520
    Progressive record for the combined ages of the two leading US presidential candidates (since stable 2-party system emerged):

    1848 - Taylor (63) v Cass (66) - 130 years
    1984 - Reagan (73) v Mondale (56) - 130 years 7 months
    2016 - Trump (70) v H Clinton (69) - 139 years 5 months
    2020 - Biden (77) v Trump (74) - 152 years 4 months
    2024 - Trump (78) v Biden (81) - 160 years 4 months
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,131

    Selebian said:

    Phil said:

    @foxinsoxuk It's a feature of the modern era, from Manchester United, to Spire Hospitals to Morrisons. Its also an issue behind the inflated Vets fees in the news this week, contracts for children's institutional care, General Practice etc.

    The common factor is Private Equity taking over and looting the system with financial engineering and charges delivered by a casualised and dumbed down workforce. There is little or no attempt at improving the quality or competitiveness of the business. Its how we end up increasing spending and getting a shit service.

    As i say unacceptable face of Capitalism

    Wrong, it is brilliant, it has screwed Manchester United for the last twenty years.
    It only took Clayton Dubilier & Rice three years to trash Morrisons though.

    The original private owners (presumably the family?) sold to the highest bidder. CD&R have proved so wildly incompetent that they took a profitable business that was subject to a bidding war to near bankruptcy.
    To judge whether incompetence, one first needs to look at how the financial situation of CD&R has been affected by their ownership of Morrisons.

    I'm not sure how it would be drafted, but there does seem to be a need to be able to penalise thosewho strip money from a business which then fails, without penalising those who are unlucky (or even just honestly incompetent). We've seen a lot of 'failures' where the business owners have done very nicely, thank you.
    The thing that confuses me about these is that a lot of bad debt seems to be created. The model seems to be to walk away from massive amounts of debt when the business goes bankrupt. So you would think that the lenders would cotton on and stop lending to these outfits. Why isn't that happening?
    My pet theory, based on no high finance experience or knowledge in particular is that v the need for much of the world to move ever larger amounts of long terms savings through decades of time, i.e. pensions for people living longer globally, means a glut of spreadsheet cash that needs to be invested and a relative lack of good investments to absorb all this cash.

    I could be wildly out on this because that's not how finance works, but I'd love to know how the ever expanding need for global pension funding influences the markets.

    After 2007, does anyone even now know where all the money is??
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,237

    O/T: does anyone understand what is happening in Haiti? I get that gangs have forced out the Prime Minister, but what is their desired outcome? Do the gang leaders want to form a Government, or are they demanding a new Government with gang-friendly legislation, or what?

    I think the gang leaders were mostly opposed to the status quo - they didn't like the idea of the state putting some of their members in prison, for example - and so they have overthrown the state to free themselves from its interference.

    I doubt they have a well-worked out prospectus for the aftermath. There wasn't one for Iraq in 2003, or for Brexit in 2016. Why would the Haitian gang leaders have one?
    I don’t think we can really compare the Haitian gangs to the Brexiteers after the referendum!

    I mean, the Haitian gangs are clearly way more effective…
    There's a relevant comparison with the discussions we've had over election timing too. A lot of the time we're making the implicit assumption that Sunak is a rational actor making logical decisions to maximise his desired outcome, whether that is time in office, number of Tory MPs in the next Parliament, or probability of being PM after the election.

    But what if his decision-making is governed by less rational concerns? He might do something unexpected and seemingly irrational because we've missed the basis on which he is making the decision.
    Yes, I think there is a small chance of the following sequence of events unfolding at the beginning of May:

    Friday May 3rd - worst local election results for the Tories since the Stone Age - airwaves filled with defeated candidates - and the usual suspects on the backbenches - blaming Sunak

    Tuesday May 7th - after a weekend of plotting, counter- plotting, formation of circular firing squads etc Graham Brady asks for a meeting with Sunak to inform him that 53 NC letters have been received

    Wednesday May 8th - Sunak announces that Parliament will be dissolved immediately and a general election will be called for late June.

    Sunak is still no longer Conservative Party leader in this scenario. It’s just that the leadership contest will take place at the same time as the election campaign.
    I think KCIII would refuse a dissolution until the Tory leadership election was concluded. It’s not quite Lascelles Principles but I think its a reasonable request of the monarch that a new PM who can command the support of the Commons is the one to make that decision.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,171
    eek said:

    O/T: does anyone understand what is happening in Haiti? I get that gangs have forced out the Prime Minister, but what is their desired outcome? Do the gang leaders want to form a Government, or are they demanding a new Government with gang-friendly legislation, or what?

    I think the gang leaders were mostly opposed to the status quo - they didn't like the idea of the state putting some of their members in prison, for example - and so they have overthrown the state to free themselves from its interference.

    I doubt they have a well-worked out prospectus for the aftermath. There wasn't one for Iraq in 2003, or for Brexit in 2016. Why would the Haitian gang leaders have one?
    I don’t think we can really compare the Haitian gangs to the Brexiteers after the referendum!

    I mean, the Haitian gangs are clearly way more effective…
    There's a relevant comparison with the discussions we've had over election timing too. A lot of the time we're making the implicit assumption that Sunak is a rational actor making logical decisions to maximise his desired outcome, whether that is time in office, number of Tory MPs in the next Parliament, or probability of being PM after the election.

    But what if his decision-making is governed by less rational concerns? He might do something unexpected and seemingly irrational because we've missed the basis on which he is making the decision.
    Yes, I think there is a small chance of the following sequence of events unfolding at the beginning of May:

    Friday May 3rd - worst local election results for the Tories since the Stone Age - airwaves filled with defeated candidates - and the usual suspects on the backbenches - blaming Sunak

    Tuesday May 7th - after a weekend of plotting, counter- plotting, formation of circular firing squads etc Graham Brady asks for a meeting with Sunak to inform him that 53 NC letters have been received

    Wednesday May 8th - Sunak announces that Parliament will be dissolved immediately and a general election will be called for late June.

    Sunak is still no longer Conservative Party leader in this scenario. It’s just that the leadership contest will take place at the same time as the election campaign.
    He would be if the vote of no confidence doesn’t take place which would be the likely result of an election being called there and then.

    Because the other option would be for the election campaign to be being held as the Torys selected a new leader - which would definitely be fun for the lols but would result in the Tories getting about 2 seats at the next election
    I don’t see anything in Tory party rules that say a general election stops their processes. Tory MPs might choose to vote differently in a VoNC, or there might be pressure to coalesce around one candidate rather than go to a members’ vote, but Sunak can’t halt any of these processes. I guess the party can re-write its rules, but they’re not going to be minded to do so in a way that is helpful for Sunak if he pulled a stunt like this.

    Sunak has to call a general election just before enough letters are in for such a strategy to work.
  • Options
    TrumanTruman Posts: 279
    Pro_Rata said:

    Selebian said:

    Phil said:

    @foxinsoxuk It's a feature of the modern era, from Manchester United, to Spire Hospitals to Morrisons. Its also an issue behind the inflated Vets fees in the news this week, contracts for children's institutional care, General Practice etc.

    The common factor is Private Equity taking over and looting the system with financial engineering and charges delivered by a casualised and dumbed down workforce. There is little or no attempt at improving the quality or competitiveness of the business. Its how we end up increasing spending and getting a shit service.

    As i say unacceptable face of Capitalism

    Wrong, it is brilliant, it has screwed Manchester United for the last twenty years.
    It only took Clayton Dubilier & Rice three years to trash Morrisons though.

    The original private owners (presumably the family?) sold to the highest bidder. CD&R have proved so wildly incompetent that they took a profitable business that was subject to a bidding war to near bankruptcy.
    To judge whether incompetence, one first needs to look at how the financial situation of CD&R has been affected by their ownership of Morrisons.

    I'm not sure how it would be drafted, but there does seem to be a need to be able to penalise thosewho strip money from a business which then fails, without penalising those who are unlucky (or even just honestly incompetent). We've seen a lot of 'failures' where the business owners have done very nicely, thank you.
    The thing that confuses me about these is that a lot of bad debt seems to be created. The model seems to be to walk away from massive amounts of debt when the business goes bankrupt. So you would think that the lenders would cotton on and stop lending to these outfits. Why isn't that happening?
    My pet theory, based on no high finance experience or knowledge in particular is that v the need for much of the world to move ever larger amounts of long terms savings through decades of time, i.e. pensions for people living longer globally, means a glut of spreadsheet cash that needs to be invested and a relative lack of good investments to absorb all this cash.

    I could be wildly out on this because that's not how finance works, but I'd love to know how the ever expanding need for global pension funding influences the markets.

    After 2007, does anyone even now know where all the money is??
    Sitting uselessly in the accounts of billionaires or used to fund one of bill gates madcap schemes.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,331
    Oh God, Christopher Chope... :(
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    No, I do not want Trump to win the election to “save the west” - I was entertaining myself with the Colombian/UK time difference - an experiment to see if PB is so attuned to me, so over-sensitive to everything I say, that you would actually notice a single stray two line remark by me at 3am, and get outraged by it

    Gratifyingly, you did. So, thanks. It really is the sincerest form of flattery
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Personally, I am more outraged by the idea @malcolmg is a hotelier

    That doesn’t fit ANY of my preconceptions. It’s borderline perverse
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,520

    O/T: does anyone understand what is happening in Haiti? I get that gangs have forced out the Prime Minister, but what is their desired outcome? Do the gang leaders want to form a Government, or are they demanding a new Government with gang-friendly legislation, or what?

    I think the gang leaders were mostly opposed to the status quo - they didn't like the idea of the state putting some of their members in prison, for example - and so they have overthrown the state to free themselves from its interference.

    I doubt they have a well-worked out prospectus for the aftermath. There wasn't one for Iraq in 2003, or for Brexit in 2016. Why would the Haitian gang leaders have one?
    I don’t think we can really compare the Haitian gangs to the Brexiteers after the referendum!

    I mean, the Haitian gangs are clearly way more effective…
    There's a relevant comparison with the discussions we've had over election timing too. A lot of the time we're making the implicit assumption that Sunak is a rational actor making logical decisions to maximise his desired outcome, whether that is time in office, number of Tory MPs in the next Parliament, or probability of being PM after the election.

    But what if his decision-making is governed by less rational concerns? He might do something unexpected and seemingly irrational because we've missed the basis on which he is making the decision.
    Yes, I think there is a small chance of the following sequence of events unfolding at the beginning of May:

    Friday May 3rd - worst local election results for the Tories since the Stone Age - airwaves filled with defeated candidates - and the usual suspects on the backbenches - blaming Sunak

    Tuesday May 7th - after a weekend of plotting, counter- plotting, formation of circular firing squads etc Graham Brady asks for a meeting with Sunak to inform him that 53 NC letters have been received

    Wednesday May 8th - Sunak announces that Parliament will be dissolved immediately and a general election will be called for late June.

    Sunak is still no longer Conservative Party leader in this scenario. It’s just that the leadership contest will take place at the same time as the election campaign.
    I assumed he would remain leader until a VONC could be held by MPs. And even the Tories would not be suicidal enough to start an election campaign by holding a VONC in the leader so MPs would be forced to withdraw the letters.
    This assumes an election would be granted. It would put the Palace in an awful position but the public deserve to be given a genuine choice. How is that possible if one of the main parties has no leader - or if, as in this scenario, its elected leader did not have, or potentially did not have, the confidence of his MPs?

    Probably the best move would be to grant it anyway but there is an argument that a dissolution should be deferred until, at a minimum, the Confidence vote was held.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,763
    Leon said:

    Personally, I am more outraged by the idea @malcolmg is a hotelier

    That doesn’t fit ANY of my preconceptions. It’s borderline perverse

    Have you not seen Fawlty Towers?
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,520

    O/T: does anyone understand what is happening in Haiti? I get that gangs have forced out the Prime Minister, but what is their desired outcome? Do the gang leaders want to form a Government, or are they demanding a new Government with gang-friendly legislation, or what?

    I think the gang leaders were mostly opposed to the status quo - they didn't like the idea of the state putting some of their members in prison, for example - and so they have overthrown the state to free themselves from its interference.

    I doubt they have a well-worked out prospectus for the aftermath. There wasn't one for Iraq in 2003, or for Brexit in 2016. Why would the Haitian gang leaders have one?
    I don’t think we can really compare the Haitian gangs to the Brexiteers after the referendum!

    I mean, the Haitian gangs are clearly way more effective…
    There's a relevant comparison with the discussions we've had over election timing too. A lot of the time we're making the implicit assumption that Sunak is a rational actor making logical decisions to maximise his desired outcome, whether that is time in office, number of Tory MPs in the next Parliament, or probability of being PM after the election.

    But what if his decision-making is governed by less rational concerns? He might do something unexpected and seemingly irrational because we've missed the basis on which he is making the decision.
    Yes, I think there is a small chance of the following sequence of events unfolding at the beginning of May:

    Friday May 3rd - worst local election results for the Tories since the Stone Age - airwaves filled with defeated candidates - and the usual suspects on the backbenches - blaming Sunak

    Tuesday May 7th - after a weekend of plotting, counter- plotting, formation of circular firing squads etc Graham Brady asks for a meeting with Sunak to inform him that 53 NC letters have been received

    Wednesday May 8th - Sunak announces that Parliament will be dissolved immediately and a general election will be called for late June.

    Sunak is still no longer Conservative Party leader in this scenario. It’s just that the leadership contest will take place at the same time as the election campaign.
    Sorry, that’s wrong. There’d still be a vote of confidence in Sunak, at the same time as the election campaign begins. The result of that could see Sunak out as leader.
    That's not necessarily so. The confidence vote is held among MPs and as soon as parliament is dissolved, there are no MPs.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,429
    eek said:

    O/T: does anyone understand what is happening in Haiti? I get that gangs have forced out the Prime Minister, but what is their desired outcome? Do the gang leaders want to form a Government, or are they demanding a new Government with gang-friendly legislation, or what?

    I think the gang leaders were mostly opposed to the status quo - they didn't like the idea of the state putting some of their members in prison, for example - and so they have overthrown the state to free themselves from its interference.

    I doubt they have a well-worked out prospectus for the aftermath. There wasn't one for Iraq in 2003, or for Brexit in 2016. Why would the Haitian gang leaders have one?
    I don’t think we can really compare the Haitian gangs to the Brexiteers after the referendum!

    I mean, the Haitian gangs are clearly way more effective…
    There's a relevant comparison with the discussions we've had over election timing too. A lot of the time we're making the implicit assumption that Sunak is a rational actor making logical decisions to maximise his desired outcome, whether that is time in office, number of Tory MPs in the next Parliament, or probability of being PM after the election.

    But what if his decision-making is governed by less rational concerns? He might do something unexpected and seemingly irrational because we've missed the basis on which he is making the decision.
    Yes, I think there is a small chance of the following sequence of events unfolding at the beginning of May:

    Friday May 3rd - worst local election results for the Tories since the Stone Age - airwaves filled with defeated candidates - and the usual suspects on the backbenches - blaming Sunak

    Tuesday May 7th - after a weekend of plotting, counter- plotting, formation of circular firing squads etc Graham Brady asks for a meeting with Sunak to inform him that 53 NC letters have been received

    Wednesday May 8th - Sunak announces that Parliament will be dissolved immediately and a general election will be called for late June.

    Sunak is still no longer Conservative Party leader in this scenario. It’s just that the leadership contest will take place at the same time as the election campaign.
    He would be if the vote of no confidence doesn’t take place which would be the likely result of an election being called there and then.

    Because the other option would be for the election campaign to be being held as the Torys selected a new leader - which would definitely be fun for the lols but would result in the Tories getting about 2 seats at the next election
    For more fun - what if Parliament votes not to be dissolved?
  • Options
    TrumanTruman Posts: 279

    Oh God, Christopher Chope... :(

    Whats he said now.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,171

    O/T: does anyone understand what is happening in Haiti? I get that gangs have forced out the Prime Minister, but what is their desired outcome? Do the gang leaders want to form a Government, or are they demanding a new Government with gang-friendly legislation, or what?

    I think the gang leaders were mostly opposed to the status quo - they didn't like the idea of the state putting some of their members in prison, for example - and so they have overthrown the state to free themselves from its interference.

    I doubt they have a well-worked out prospectus for the aftermath. There wasn't one for Iraq in 2003, or for Brexit in 2016. Why would the Haitian gang leaders have one?
    I don’t think we can really compare the Haitian gangs to the Brexiteers after the referendum!

    I mean, the Haitian gangs are clearly way more effective…
    There's a relevant comparison with the discussions we've had over election timing too. A lot of the time we're making the implicit assumption that Sunak is a rational actor making logical decisions to maximise his desired outcome, whether that is time in office, number of Tory MPs in the next Parliament, or probability of being PM after the election.

    But what if his decision-making is governed by less rational concerns? He might do something unexpected and seemingly irrational because we've missed the basis on which he is making the decision.
    Yes, I think there is a small chance of the following sequence of events unfolding at the beginning of May:

    Friday May 3rd - worst local election results for the Tories since the Stone Age - airwaves filled with defeated candidates - and the usual suspects on the backbenches - blaming Sunak

    Tuesday May 7th - after a weekend of plotting, counter- plotting, formation of circular firing squads etc Graham Brady asks for a meeting with Sunak to inform him that 53 NC letters have been received

    Wednesday May 8th - Sunak announces that Parliament will be dissolved immediately and a general election will be called for late June.

    Sunak is still no longer Conservative Party leader in this scenario. It’s just that the leadership contest will take place at the same time as the election campaign.
    I assumed he would remain leader until a VONC could be held by MPs. And even the Tories would not be suicidal enough to start an election campaign by holding a VONC in the leader so MPs would be forced to withdraw the letters.
    If enough letters are in, a process is triggered. Which would first be the VoNC. It seems to me difficult to avoid that process. Once it’s triggered, MPs withdrawing letters is moot.

    At that point, either MPs rally around Sunak because election, or they rally against him because of the stunt he’s just pulled.

    I think the whole scenario is very unlikely. Sunak is not a Trump. I don’t think he’d call an election in such circumstances.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,462
    Pro_Rata said:

    Selebian said:

    Phil said:

    @foxinsoxuk It's a feature of the modern era, from Manchester United, to Spire Hospitals to Morrisons. Its also an issue behind the inflated Vets fees in the news this week, contracts for children's institutional care, General Practice etc.

    The common factor is Private Equity taking over and looting the system with financial engineering and charges delivered by a casualised and dumbed down workforce. There is little or no attempt at improving the quality or competitiveness of the business. Its how we end up increasing spending and getting a shit service.

    As i say unacceptable face of Capitalism

    Wrong, it is brilliant, it has screwed Manchester United for the last twenty years.
    It only took Clayton Dubilier & Rice three years to trash Morrisons though.

    The original private owners (presumably the family?) sold to the highest bidder. CD&R have proved so wildly incompetent that they took a profitable business that was subject to a bidding war to near bankruptcy.
    To judge whether incompetence, one first needs to look at how the financial situation of CD&R has been affected by their ownership of Morrisons.

    I'm not sure how it would be drafted, but there does seem to be a need to be able to penalise thosewho strip money from a business which then fails, without penalising those who are unlucky (or even just honestly incompetent). We've seen a lot of 'failures' where the business owners have done very nicely, thank you.
    The thing that confuses me about these is that a lot of bad debt seems to be created. The model seems to be to walk away from massive amounts of debt when the business goes bankrupt. So you would think that the lenders would cotton on and stop lending to these outfits. Why isn't that happening?
    My pet theory, based on no high finance experience or knowledge in particular is that v the need for much of the world to move ever larger amounts of long terms savings through decades of time, i.e. pensions for people living longer globally, means a glut of spreadsheet cash that needs to be invested and a relative lack of good investments to absorb all this cash.

    I could be wildly out on this because that's not how finance works, but I'd love to know how the ever expanding need for global pension funding influences the markets.

    After 2007, does anyone even now know where all the money is??
    Indeed, it's called the global savings glut hypothesis, and has been mooted as an explanation for the period of relatively low interest rates we've experienced this century, even as government debt has continued to rise. I find it quite plausible, as the share of safe assets as a share of global GDP remains quite low despite the US and other governments issuing so many bonds. That means these safe assets can command a relatively high price, ie have a low yield. Meanwhile low investment (also demographics related) means there are fewer productive places to park the money. Your thinking is definitely along the right lines.
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,621
    edited March 13

    Has there ever been a Presidential election in which a strong possibility is that it will be decided by one of the candidates proving manifestly unable to serve?

    O/T: does anyone understand what is happening in Haiti? I get that gangs have forced out the Prime Minister, but what is their desired outcome? Do the gang leaders want to form a Government, or are they demanding a new Government with gang-friendly legislation, or what?

    For a moment I couldn't work out if your first question referred to Haiti or the United States.

    Which is a comment on what Trump has done to the American political system, I suppose.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,131

    Progressive record for the combined ages of the two leading US presidential candidates (since stable 2-party system emerged):

    1848 - Taylor (63) v Cass (66) - 130 years
    1984 - Reagan (73) v Mondale (56) - 130 years 7 months
    2016 - Trump (70) v H Clinton (69) - 139 years 5 months
    2020 - Biden (77) v Trump (74) - 152 years 4 months
    2024 - Trump (78) v Biden (81) - 160 years 4 months

    Since it happened, I've always wondered if Huddersfield constituency in GE 2019 holds the record for the winning vs runner up candidates in a UK parliamentary election:

    Barry Sheerman (79) beat Ken Davy (78) - 157 years 7 months combined
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 40,331
    Truman said:

    Oh God, Christopher Chope... :(

    Whats he said now.
    It sounds like he's introducing a vaccine harm bill.

    https://www.chrischope.com/campaigns/covid-19-vaccine-damage-national-campaign
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,429

    Pro_Rata said:

    Selebian said:

    Phil said:

    @foxinsoxuk It's a feature of the modern era, from Manchester United, to Spire Hospitals to Morrisons. Its also an issue behind the inflated Vets fees in the news this week, contracts for children's institutional care, General Practice etc.

    The common factor is Private Equity taking over and looting the system with financial engineering and charges delivered by a casualised and dumbed down workforce. There is little or no attempt at improving the quality or competitiveness of the business. Its how we end up increasing spending and getting a shit service.

    As i say unacceptable face of Capitalism

    Wrong, it is brilliant, it has screwed Manchester United for the last twenty years.
    It only took Clayton Dubilier & Rice three years to trash Morrisons though.

    The original private owners (presumably the family?) sold to the highest bidder. CD&R have proved so wildly incompetent that they took a profitable business that was subject to a bidding war to near bankruptcy.
    To judge whether incompetence, one first needs to look at how the financial situation of CD&R has been affected by their ownership of Morrisons.

    I'm not sure how it would be drafted, but there does seem to be a need to be able to penalise thosewho strip money from a business which then fails, without penalising those who are unlucky (or even just honestly incompetent). We've seen a lot of 'failures' where the business owners have done very nicely, thank you.
    The thing that confuses me about these is that a lot of bad debt seems to be created. The model seems to be to walk away from massive amounts of debt when the business goes bankrupt. So you would think that the lenders would cotton on and stop lending to these outfits. Why isn't that happening?
    My pet theory, based on no high finance experience or knowledge in particular is that v the need for much of the world to move ever larger amounts of long terms savings through decades of time, i.e. pensions for people living longer globally, means a glut of spreadsheet cash that needs to be invested and a relative lack of good investments to absorb all this cash.

    I could be wildly out on this because that's not how finance works, but I'd love to know how the ever expanding need for global pension funding influences the markets.

    After 2007, does anyone even now know where all the money is??
    Indeed, it's called the global savings glut hypothesis, and has been mooted as an explanation for the period of relatively low interest rates we've experienced this century, even as government debt has continued to rise. I find it quite plausible, as the share of safe assets as a share of global GDP remains quite low despite the US and other governments issuing so many bonds. That means these safe assets can command a relatively high price, ie have a low yield. Meanwhile low investment (also demographics related) means there are fewer productive places to park the money. Your thinking is definitely along the right lines.
    I agree with this hypothesis - it also accounts for wild valuations of successful companies. See Apple, Tesla etc
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 40,224
    Phil said:

    Bet Sunak is bloody seething about Hunt's wild promise to get rid of NI.

    Labour can hammer this all the way until Jan 2025.

    The irony of this is that it’s a good policy: NI & income tax should be merged.

    The fact that neither party can advocate for this without people going nuts is the real problem.
    This is one of several areas where radical change is only possible if both main parties agree on it.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 46,429
    TimS said:

    PMQs - this is utterly brutal.

    I think Rishi is toast.

    We're entering an interesting time, with the clock running down towards a general election. A bit like the Biden conundrum in the US where it gets progressively too late in the day to replace a leader who looks like heading for a bad defeat.

    There is a non-negligible risk of what I would call the chaotic run-out scenario. The governing party is stuck in a quandary about three things: 1. the timing of the election, 2. sticking with or kicking out the current leader, 3. Going after the voters lost to Reform to trying to win back the centre-right. They are, to deploy the cricketing analogy, hovering by the crease deciding whether or not to go for the run.

    We've all seen those embarrassing scenes where one batsman goes for it, then the other holds out his hand and shouts no, then the batsman freezes midway down the track, then the other decides to run anyway and at least one of them ends up run out by several yards. That's what could happen to the Tories if they don't make some decisions and make them fast and decisively.

    Keep that image in mind. It's getting more and more plausible.
    Simply yes.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588

    Pro_Rata said:

    Selebian said:

    Phil said:

    @foxinsoxuk It's a feature of the modern era, from Manchester United, to Spire Hospitals to Morrisons. Its also an issue behind the inflated Vets fees in the news this week, contracts for children's institutional care, General Practice etc.

    The common factor is Private Equity taking over and looting the system with financial engineering and charges delivered by a casualised and dumbed down workforce. There is little or no attempt at improving the quality or competitiveness of the business. Its how we end up increasing spending and getting a shit service.

    As i say unacceptable face of Capitalism

    Wrong, it is brilliant, it has screwed Manchester United for the last twenty years.
    It only took Clayton Dubilier & Rice three years to trash Morrisons though.

    The original private owners (presumably the family?) sold to the highest bidder. CD&R have proved so wildly incompetent that they took a profitable business that was subject to a bidding war to near bankruptcy.
    To judge whether incompetence, one first needs to look at how the financial situation of CD&R has been affected by their ownership of Morrisons.

    I'm not sure how it would be drafted, but there does seem to be a need to be able to penalise thosewho strip money from a business which then fails, without penalising those who are unlucky (or even just honestly incompetent). We've seen a lot of 'failures' where the business owners have done very nicely, thank you.
    The thing that confuses me about these is that a lot of bad debt seems to be created. The model seems to be to walk away from massive amounts of debt when the business goes bankrupt. So you would think that the lenders would cotton on and stop lending to these outfits. Why isn't that happening?
    My pet theory, based on no high finance experience or knowledge in particular is that v the need for much of the world to move ever larger amounts of long terms savings through decades of time, i.e. pensions for people living longer globally, means a glut of spreadsheet cash that needs to be invested and a relative lack of good investments to absorb all this cash.

    I could be wildly out on this because that's not how finance works, but I'd love to know how the ever expanding need for global pension funding influences the markets.

    After 2007, does anyone even now know where all the money is??
    Indeed, it's called the global savings glut hypothesis, and has been mooted as an explanation for the period of relatively low interest rates we've experienced this century, even as government debt has continued to rise. I find it quite plausible, as the share of safe assets as a share of global GDP remains quite low despite the US and other governments issuing so many bonds. That means these safe assets can command a relatively high price, ie have a low yield. Meanwhile low investment (also demographics related) means there are fewer productive places to park the money. Your thinking is definitely along the right lines.
    I agree with this hypothesis - it also accounts for wild valuations of successful companies. See Apple, Tesla etc
    Though it doesn't account for the undervaluation (as often claimed) of sound blue chip UK outfits.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,171

    O/T: does anyone understand what is happening in Haiti? I get that gangs have forced out the Prime Minister, but what is their desired outcome? Do the gang leaders want to form a Government, or are they demanding a new Government with gang-friendly legislation, or what?

    I think the gang leaders were mostly opposed to the status quo - they didn't like the idea of the state putting some of their members in prison, for example - and so they have overthrown the state to free themselves from its interference.

    I doubt they have a well-worked out prospectus for the aftermath. There wasn't one for Iraq in 2003, or for Brexit in 2016. Why would the Haitian gang leaders have one?
    I don’t think we can really compare the Haitian gangs to the Brexiteers after the referendum!

    I mean, the Haitian gangs are clearly way more effective…
    There's a relevant comparison with the discussions we've had over election timing too. A lot of the time we're making the implicit assumption that Sunak is a rational actor making logical decisions to maximise his desired outcome, whether that is time in office, number of Tory MPs in the next Parliament, or probability of being PM after the election.

    But what if his decision-making is governed by less rational concerns? He might do something unexpected and seemingly irrational because we've missed the basis on which he is making the decision.
    Yes, I think there is a small chance of the following sequence of events unfolding at the beginning of May:

    Friday May 3rd - worst local election results for the Tories since the Stone Age - airwaves filled with defeated candidates - and the usual suspects on the backbenches - blaming Sunak

    Tuesday May 7th - after a weekend of plotting, counter- plotting, formation of circular firing squads etc Graham Brady asks for a meeting with Sunak to inform him that 53 NC letters have been received

    Wednesday May 8th - Sunak announces that Parliament will be dissolved immediately and a general election will be called for late June.

    Sunak is still no longer Conservative Party leader in this scenario. It’s just that the leadership contest will take place at the same time as the election campaign.
    Sorry, that’s wrong. There’d still be a vote of confidence in Sunak, at the same time as the election campaign begins. The result of that could see Sunak out as leader.
    That's not necessarily so. The confidence vote is held among MPs and as soon as parliament is dissolved, there are no MPs.
    It takes a finite amount of time for the dissolution to kick in, so the Tory MPs could organise a quick vote!

    I presume the party could also choose to interpret “MP” as not counting the dissolution. What would Sunak do? Sue them?

    The reality is that the Conservative Party is not, unlike the GOP, a personality cult. If Sunak played silly buggers, they’d dump him. He can’t lawyer his way into staying leader. Nor do I remotely think he’d try!
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588

    eek said:

    O/T: does anyone understand what is happening in Haiti? I get that gangs have forced out the Prime Minister, but what is their desired outcome? Do the gang leaders want to form a Government, or are they demanding a new Government with gang-friendly legislation, or what?

    I think the gang leaders were mostly opposed to the status quo - they didn't like the idea of the state putting some of their members in prison, for example - and so they have overthrown the state to free themselves from its interference.

    I doubt they have a well-worked out prospectus for the aftermath. There wasn't one for Iraq in 2003, or for Brexit in 2016. Why would the Haitian gang leaders have one?
    I don’t think we can really compare the Haitian gangs to the Brexiteers after the referendum!

    I mean, the Haitian gangs are clearly way more effective…
    There's a relevant comparison with the discussions we've had over election timing too. A lot of the time we're making the implicit assumption that Sunak is a rational actor making logical decisions to maximise his desired outcome, whether that is time in office, number of Tory MPs in the next Parliament, or probability of being PM after the election.

    But what if his decision-making is governed by less rational concerns? He might do something unexpected and seemingly irrational because we've missed the basis on which he is making the decision.
    Yes, I think there is a small chance of the following sequence of events unfolding at the beginning of May:

    Friday May 3rd - worst local election results for the Tories since the Stone Age - airwaves filled with defeated candidates - and the usual suspects on the backbenches - blaming Sunak

    Tuesday May 7th - after a weekend of plotting, counter- plotting, formation of circular firing squads etc Graham Brady asks for a meeting with Sunak to inform him that 53 NC letters have been received

    Wednesday May 8th - Sunak announces that Parliament will be dissolved immediately and a general election will be called for late June.

    Sunak is still no longer Conservative Party leader in this scenario. It’s just that the leadership contest will take place at the same time as the election campaign.
    He would be if the vote of no confidence doesn’t take place which would be the likely result of an election being called there and then.

    Because the other option would be for the election campaign to be being held as the Torys selected a new leader - which would definitely be fun for the lols but would result in the Tories getting about 2 seats at the next election
    For more fun - what if Parliament votes not to be dissolved?
    Off the bat answer, may need amending: It's a royal prerogative, so it is of no effect.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,568

    PMQs - this is utterly brutal.

    I think Rishi is toast.

    I think he will lose. I don't think PMQ's will have any bearing on it but PMQ's does reveal his real lack of abilities in effective communication and debate.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,202
    kinabalu said:

    The Festival Day 2. 🐎
    Was looking forward to action packed salmagundi Wednesday, a bumper, the cross country, and after bookies stung yesterday by favourites winning sometimes a little too easy imo, today the races are a lot more competitive and I think some surprises.

    But no cross county 😭. It’s waterlogged. I love the cross country “as they come off the embankment, they will cut through Mrs Miggins Tea Garden, up to the Elephant next, round the castle, and will take on the proverbial conifers.” Also, a 3m5f country chase through heavy mud that still doesn’t have a handicap on it, Coko Beach was absolutely nailed on, my Napoleon.

    It was dry overnight and shouldn’t rain this afternoon. On the main courses they are saying the going is soft, heavy in places - but arguably they shouldn’t have started with that going yesterday only to change after two races.

    And my tips for today. With those revised times, though your bookmaker like mine might not be using them

    Cheltenham 1.45 - Handstands
    Cheltenham 2.30 - Stay Away Fay
    Cheltenham 3.15 - Da Capo Glory e/w
    Cheltenham 4.00 - Elixir De Nutz
    Cheltenham 4:50 - Madara
    Cheltenham 5.30 - Romeo Coolio

    Have a good afternoon 🙂

    Cheers. And it's always good, the Festival, but I really don't like it that in just about every Grade 1 race there's an odds-on favourite from the same single trainer. That's not what you want in the sport.
    Yes. I acknowledged in my post above some of my 3 wins yesterday were tap ins, but today at least is very different. The “same single trainer” you mention isn’t finding it as easy as you might think, even though what he and his team does is very very good, and because of that they rightly attract the best horses. It’s a free market, just like football is, it’s up to competitors to step up and take their share of winners. It won’t get better soon, because this side of the water we don’t have a great crop of superstar horses coming through, but just like football club dominance goes in cycles, this likely to as well.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,460

    eek said:

    O/T: does anyone understand what is happening in Haiti? I get that gangs have forced out the Prime Minister, but what is their desired outcome? Do the gang leaders want to form a Government, or are they demanding a new Government with gang-friendly legislation, or what?

    I think the gang leaders were mostly opposed to the status quo - they didn't like the idea of the state putting some of their members in prison, for example - and so they have overthrown the state to free themselves from its interference.

    I doubt they have a well-worked out prospectus for the aftermath. There wasn't one for Iraq in 2003, or for Brexit in 2016. Why would the Haitian gang leaders have one?
    I don’t think we can really compare the Haitian gangs to the Brexiteers after the referendum!

    I mean, the Haitian gangs are clearly way more effective…
    There's a relevant comparison with the discussions we've had over election timing too. A lot of the time we're making the implicit assumption that Sunak is a rational actor making logical decisions to maximise his desired outcome, whether that is time in office, number of Tory MPs in the next Parliament, or probability of being PM after the election.

    But what if his decision-making is governed by less rational concerns? He might do something unexpected and seemingly irrational because we've missed the basis on which he is making the decision.
    Yes, I think there is a small chance of the following sequence of events unfolding at the beginning of May:

    Friday May 3rd - worst local election results for the Tories since the Stone Age - airwaves filled with defeated candidates - and the usual suspects on the backbenches - blaming Sunak

    Tuesday May 7th - after a weekend of plotting, counter- plotting, formation of circular firing squads etc Graham Brady asks for a meeting with Sunak to inform him that 53 NC letters have been received

    Wednesday May 8th - Sunak announces that Parliament will be dissolved immediately and a general election will be called for late June.

    Sunak is still no longer Conservative Party leader in this scenario. It’s just that the leadership contest will take place at the same time as the election campaign.
    He would be if the vote of no confidence doesn’t take place which would be the likely result of an election being called there and then.

    Because the other option would be for the election campaign to be being held as the Torys selected a new leader - which would definitely be fun for the lols but would result in the Tories getting about 2 seats at the next election
    I don’t see anything in Tory party rules that say a general election stops their processes. Tory MPs might choose to vote differently in a VoNC, or there might be pressure to coalesce around one candidate rather than go to a members’ vote, but Sunak can’t halt any of these processes. I guess the party can re-write its rules, but they’re not going to be minded to do so in a way that is helpful for Sunak if he pulled a stunt like this.

    Sunak has to call a general election just before enough letters are in for such a strategy to work.
    This would be absolute chaos and solid gold entertainment so I hope it happens.

    Follow that with a 269-269 electoral college tie leading to a contingent election that Trump wins despite losing the popular vote handsomely and 2024 would be the most lolsome year in politics ever.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,171
    algarkirk said:

    eek said:

    O/T: does anyone understand what is happening in Haiti? I get that gangs have forced out the Prime Minister, but what is their desired outcome? Do the gang leaders want to form a Government, or are they demanding a new Government with gang-friendly legislation, or what?

    I think the gang leaders were mostly opposed to the status quo - they didn't like the idea of the state putting some of their members in prison, for example - and so they have overthrown the state to free themselves from its interference.

    I doubt they have a well-worked out prospectus for the aftermath. There wasn't one for Iraq in 2003, or for Brexit in 2016. Why would the Haitian gang leaders have one?
    I don’t think we can really compare the Haitian gangs to the Brexiteers after the referendum!

    I mean, the Haitian gangs are clearly way more effective…
    There's a relevant comparison with the discussions we've had over election timing too. A lot of the time we're making the implicit assumption that Sunak is a rational actor making logical decisions to maximise his desired outcome, whether that is time in office, number of Tory MPs in the next Parliament, or probability of being PM after the election.

    But what if his decision-making is governed by less rational concerns? He might do something unexpected and seemingly irrational because we've missed the basis on which he is making the decision.
    Yes, I think there is a small chance of the following sequence of events unfolding at the beginning of May:

    Friday May 3rd - worst local election results for the Tories since the Stone Age - airwaves filled with defeated candidates - and the usual suspects on the backbenches - blaming Sunak

    Tuesday May 7th - after a weekend of plotting, counter- plotting, formation of circular firing squads etc Graham Brady asks for a meeting with Sunak to inform him that 53 NC letters have been received

    Wednesday May 8th - Sunak announces that Parliament will be dissolved immediately and a general election will be called for late June.

    Sunak is still no longer Conservative Party leader in this scenario. It’s just that the leadership contest will take place at the same time as the election campaign.
    He would be if the vote of no confidence doesn’t take place which would be the likely result of an election being called there and then.

    Because the other option would be for the election campaign to be being held as the Torys selected a new leader - which would definitely be fun for the lols but would result in the Tories getting about 2 seats at the next election
    For more fun - what if Parliament votes not to be dissolved?
    Off the bat answer, may need amending: It's a royal prerogative, so it is of no effect.
    If Parliament in a vote made clear that it did not support Sunak’s decision, the King wouldn’t grant Sunak’s request surely.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,403
    Selebian said:

    Has there ever been a Presidential election in which a strong possibility is that it will be decided by one of the candidates proving manifestly unable to serve?

    O/T: does anyone understand what is happening in Haiti? I get that gangs have forced out the Prime Minister, but what is their desired outcome? Do the gang leaders want to form a Government, or are they demanding a new Government with gang-friendly legislation, or what?

    On the O/T, unfortunately in my lifetime experience of Haiti it all seems to be summed up by 'SNAFU' :disappointed: Beyond that, I'm as confused as you are.
    I disagree

    I would go with FUBAR not SNAFU.

  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187

    Leon said:

    Personally, I am more outraged by the idea @malcolmg is a hotelier

    That doesn’t fit ANY of my preconceptions. It’s borderline perverse

    Have you not seen Fawlty Towers?
    That’s the image that immediately springs to mind, but even worse somehow in a broad Fife accent

    Also delightful if true, due to being so out of character. Almost as good as NPXMP’s Swiss Threesome
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,022
    algarkirk said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Selebian said:

    Phil said:

    @foxinsoxuk It's a feature of the modern era, from Manchester United, to Spire Hospitals to Morrisons. Its also an issue behind the inflated Vets fees in the news this week, contracts for children's institutional care, General Practice etc.

    The common factor is Private Equity taking over and looting the system with financial engineering and charges delivered by a casualised and dumbed down workforce. There is little or no attempt at improving the quality or competitiveness of the business. Its how we end up increasing spending and getting a shit service.

    As i say unacceptable face of Capitalism

    Wrong, it is brilliant, it has screwed Manchester United for the last twenty years.
    It only took Clayton Dubilier & Rice three years to trash Morrisons though.

    The original private owners (presumably the family?) sold to the highest bidder. CD&R have proved so wildly incompetent that they took a profitable business that was subject to a bidding war to near bankruptcy.
    To judge whether incompetence, one first needs to look at how the financial situation of CD&R has been affected by their ownership of Morrisons.

    I'm not sure how it would be drafted, but there does seem to be a need to be able to penalise thosewho strip money from a business which then fails, without penalising those who are unlucky (or even just honestly incompetent). We've seen a lot of 'failures' where the business owners have done very nicely, thank you.
    The thing that confuses me about these is that a lot of bad debt seems to be created. The model seems to be to walk away from massive amounts of debt when the business goes bankrupt. So you would think that the lenders would cotton on and stop lending to these outfits. Why isn't that happening?
    My pet theory, based on no high finance experience or knowledge in particular is that v the need for much of the world to move ever larger amounts of long terms savings through decades of time, i.e. pensions for people living longer globally, means a glut of spreadsheet cash that needs to be invested and a relative lack of good investments to absorb all this cash.

    I could be wildly out on this because that's not how finance works, but I'd love to know how the ever expanding need for global pension funding influences the markets.

    After 2007, does anyone even now know where all the money is??
    Indeed, it's called the global savings glut hypothesis, and has been mooted as an explanation for the period of relatively low interest rates we've experienced this century, even as government debt has continued to rise. I find it quite plausible, as the share of safe assets as a share of global GDP remains quite low despite the US and other governments issuing so many bonds. That means these safe assets can command a relatively high price, ie have a low yield. Meanwhile low investment (also demographics related) means there are fewer productive places to park the money. Your thinking is definitely along the right lines.
    I agree with this hypothesis - it also accounts for wild valuations of successful companies. See Apple, Tesla etc
    Though it doesn't account for the undervaluation (as often claimed) of sound blue chip UK outfits.
    Apple will probably be able to buy the entire FTSE100 with cash in 20 years time.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 26,554
    kinabalu said:

    Phil said:

    Bet Sunak is bloody seething about Hunt's wild promise to get rid of NI.

    Labour can hammer this all the way until Jan 2025.

    The irony of this is that it’s a good policy: NI & income tax should be merged.

    The fact that neither party can advocate for this without people going nuts is the real problem.
    This is one of several areas where radical change is only possible if both main parties agree on it.
    Or it’s done after an election when the incoming Government has a large majority.

    Imagine if Labour got 480 seats they could do what they want and nothing could stop them
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,237
    TimS said:

    PMQs - this is utterly brutal.

    I think Rishi is toast.

    We're entering an interesting time, with the clock running down towards a general election. A bit like the Biden conundrum in the US where it gets progressively too late in the day to replace a leader who looks like heading for a bad defeat.

    There is a non-negligible risk of what I would call the chaotic run-out scenario. The governing party is stuck in a quandary about three things: 1. the timing of the election, 2. sticking with or kicking out the current leader, 3. Going after the voters lost to Reform or trying to win back the centre-right. They are, to deploy the cricketing analogy, hovering by the crease deciding whether or not to go for the run.

    We've all seen those embarrassing scenes where one batsman goes for it, then the other holds out his hand and shouts no, then the batsman freezes midway down the track, then the other decides to run anyway and at least one of them ends up run out by several yards. That's what could happen to the Tories if they don't make some decisions and make them fast and decisively.

    Keep that image in mind. It's getting more and more plausible.
    Good post. I actually think in times like this a lot of PMs would have avoided such chaos because there would have been a message delivered that essentially said - the time for arguing isn’t now - we have an election campaign to run - this is our positioning - we just need to get on with it.

    Rishi is such an appalling media manager/party manager and so politically indecisive that he can’t even to do a “seriously everyone, pull it together” message.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,588

    O/T: does anyone understand what is happening in Haiti? I get that gangs have forced out the Prime Minister, but what is their desired outcome? Do the gang leaders want to form a Government, or are they demanding a new Government with gang-friendly legislation, or what?

    I think the gang leaders were mostly opposed to the status quo - they didn't like the idea of the state putting some of their members in prison, for example - and so they have overthrown the state to free themselves from its interference.

    I doubt they have a well-worked out prospectus for the aftermath. There wasn't one for Iraq in 2003, or for Brexit in 2016. Why would the Haitian gang leaders have one?
    I don’t think we can really compare the Haitian gangs to the Brexiteers after the referendum!

    I mean, the Haitian gangs are clearly way more effective…
    There's a relevant comparison with the discussions we've had over election timing too. A lot of the time we're making the implicit assumption that Sunak is a rational actor making logical decisions to maximise his desired outcome, whether that is time in office, number of Tory MPs in the next Parliament, or probability of being PM after the election.

    But what if his decision-making is governed by less rational concerns? He might do something unexpected and seemingly irrational because we've missed the basis on which he is making the decision.
    Yes, I think there is a small chance of the following sequence of events unfolding at the beginning of May:

    Friday May 3rd - worst local election results for the Tories since the Stone Age - airwaves filled with defeated candidates - and the usual suspects on the backbenches - blaming Sunak

    Tuesday May 7th - after a weekend of plotting, counter- plotting, formation of circular firing squads etc Graham Brady asks for a meeting with Sunak to inform him that 53 NC letters have been received

    Wednesday May 8th - Sunak announces that Parliament will be dissolved immediately and a general election will be called for late June.

    Sunak is still no longer Conservative Party leader in this scenario. It’s just that the leadership contest will take place at the same time as the election campaign.
    Sorry, that’s wrong. There’d still be a vote of confidence in Sunak, at the same time as the election campaign begins. The result of that could see Sunak out as leader.
    That's not necessarily so. The confidence vote is held among MPs and as soon as parliament is dissolved, there are no MPs.
    And the PM is the PM until he resigns. MPs cease to be MPs but ministers remain ministers until they are not. Tory party internal rules about how to depose the party leader (who is also PM) are entirely trumped by our constitutional conventions.

    If there were a row about how Tory rules worked in the case of enough letters being followed by a dissolution, the courts would adjudicate the Tory party issue; the UK constitution would march along in its stately way.

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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 40,224
    Leon said:

    No, I do not want Trump to win the election to “save the west” - I was entertaining myself with the Colombian/UK time difference - an experiment to see if PB is so attuned to me, so over-sensitive to everything I say, that you would actually notice a single stray two line remark by me at 3am, and get outraged by it

    Gratifyingly, you did. So, thanks. It really is the sincerest form of flattery

    Will you be issuing one of these after every stupid comment from now on?

    Could become quite an overhead.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    Taz said:

    PMQs - this is utterly brutal.

    I think Rishi is toast.

    I think he will lose. I don't think PMQ's will have any bearing on it but PMQ's does reveal his real lack of abilities in effective communication and debate.
    PMQs rarely breaks through into public discourse. But there are occasionally exceptions, and that pithy Starmer quote could be one of them. "He's afraid of his party; I've changed mine". It's in the same league (not quite so poetic but more brutal) as "he was the future once", or "from Stalin to Mr Bean".
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,237
    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    Phil said:

    Bet Sunak is bloody seething about Hunt's wild promise to get rid of NI.

    Labour can hammer this all the way until Jan 2025.

    The irony of this is that it’s a good policy: NI & income tax should be merged.

    The fact that neither party can advocate for this without people going nuts is the real problem.
    This is one of several areas where radical change is only possible if both main parties agree on it.
    Or it’s done after an election when the incoming Government has a large majority.

    Imagine if Labour got 480 seats they could do what they want and nothing could stop them
    I mean you’d have thought a majority of 80 would have been enough for the Tories to do what they wanted but this government has been one of the least purposeful on record, but yes, in theory that should be an anomaly.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 9,171
    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    Phil said:

    Bet Sunak is bloody seething about Hunt's wild promise to get rid of NI.

    Labour can hammer this all the way until Jan 2025.

    The irony of this is that it’s a good policy: NI & income tax should be merged.

    The fact that neither party can advocate for this without people going nuts is the real problem.
    This is one of several areas where radical change is only possible if both main parties agree on it.
    Or it’s done after an election when the incoming Government has a large majority.

    Imagine if Labour got 480 seats they could do what they want and nothing could stop them
    The Lords could still delay anything not in the manifesto.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 65,908
    Truman said:

    Nigelb said:

    Putin: “It would be ridiculous for us to start negotiating with Ukraine just because it’s running out of ammunition.”
    Republican leadership of the House cutting off military supplies to Ukraine has made Putin drop his pretense about desiring peace talks. He wants it all.

    https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1767824155108311284

    Well obviously if you think you are winning you are less inclined to negotiate Or do you think Putin is just a nice guy who will roll over because the west is tired of this war.
    I'll let you know the flaws in your question when you answer my question about your local Morrisons.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 60,123
    kinabalu said:

    Phil said:

    Bet Sunak is bloody seething about Hunt's wild promise to get rid of NI.

    Labour can hammer this all the way until Jan 2025.

    The irony of this is that it’s a good policy: NI & income tax should be merged.

    The fact that neither party can advocate for this without people going nuts is the real problem.
    This is one of several areas where radical change is only possible if both main parties agree on it.
    Hunt isn't talking about merging it. He is talking, or was, about getting rid of it all together via cuts and savings and efficiencies iirc.

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    TazTaz Posts: 12,568
    Pulpstar said:

    algarkirk said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Selebian said:

    Phil said:

    @foxinsoxuk It's a feature of the modern era, from Manchester United, to Spire Hospitals to Morrisons. Its also an issue behind the inflated Vets fees in the news this week, contracts for children's institutional care, General Practice etc.

    The common factor is Private Equity taking over and looting the system with financial engineering and charges delivered by a casualised and dumbed down workforce. There is little or no attempt at improving the quality or competitiveness of the business. Its how we end up increasing spending and getting a shit service.

    As i say unacceptable face of Capitalism

    Wrong, it is brilliant, it has screwed Manchester United for the last twenty years.
    It only took Clayton Dubilier & Rice three years to trash Morrisons though.

    The original private owners (presumably the family?) sold to the highest bidder. CD&R have proved so wildly incompetent that they took a profitable business that was subject to a bidding war to near bankruptcy.
    To judge whether incompetence, one first needs to look at how the financial situation of CD&R has been affected by their ownership of Morrisons.

    I'm not sure how it would be drafted, but there does seem to be a need to be able to penalise thosewho strip money from a business which then fails, without penalising those who are unlucky (or even just honestly incompetent). We've seen a lot of 'failures' where the business owners have done very nicely, thank you.
    The thing that confuses me about these is that a lot of bad debt seems to be created. The model seems to be to walk away from massive amounts of debt when the business goes bankrupt. So you would think that the lenders would cotton on and stop lending to these outfits. Why isn't that happening?
    My pet theory, based on no high finance experience or knowledge in particular is that v the need for much of the world to move ever larger amounts of long terms savings through decades of time, i.e. pensions for people living longer globally, means a glut of spreadsheet cash that needs to be invested and a relative lack of good investments to absorb all this cash.

    I could be wildly out on this because that's not how finance works, but I'd love to know how the ever expanding need for global pension funding influences the markets.

    After 2007, does anyone even now know where all the money is??
    Indeed, it's called the global savings glut hypothesis, and has been mooted as an explanation for the period of relatively low interest rates we've experienced this century, even as government debt has continued to rise. I find it quite plausible, as the share of safe assets as a share of global GDP remains quite low despite the US and other governments issuing so many bonds. That means these safe assets can command a relatively high price, ie have a low yield. Meanwhile low investment (also demographics related) means there are fewer productive places to park the money. Your thinking is definitely along the right lines.
    I agree with this hypothesis - it also accounts for wild valuations of successful companies. See Apple, Tesla etc
    Though it doesn't account for the undervaluation (as often claimed) of sound blue chip UK outfits.
    Apple will probably be able to buy the entire FTSE100 with cash in 20 years time.
    Well you only have to look at Wincanton and the bid premium for that to see there is a degree of undervaluation going on.

    If Apple did that it would be great news for all the poor saps and mugs forced to move their ISA's and pensions over to British stocks to "boost Britain"
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    TazTaz Posts: 12,568
    eek said:

    kinabalu said:

    Phil said:

    Bet Sunak is bloody seething about Hunt's wild promise to get rid of NI.

    Labour can hammer this all the way until Jan 2025.

    The irony of this is that it’s a good policy: NI & income tax should be merged.

    The fact that neither party can advocate for this without people going nuts is the real problem.
    This is one of several areas where radical change is only possible if both main parties agree on it.
    Or it’s done after an election when the incoming Government has a large majority.

    Imagine if Labour got 480 seats they could do what they want and nothing could stop them
    In the words of Professor Zaroff - "Nothing in the World can stop me now."
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