I've already seen it persistently hallucinating wrt personal tax. As more and more of the internet gets written by these bots it's only going to get worse.
So they can 'own the libs' by delaying the GE until January. Is that what I'm hearing. Well that's fine if you don't have a problem with Ed Davey becoming Leader of the Opposition.
The latest wheeze is actually quite fun.
EXC: Tory MPs propose ‘Super Thursday’ plan - holding an ECHR Referendum on the same day as a General Election
Aimed to ‘square off’ threat from Reform and @Nigel_Farage
Could help bring in Reform voters, but alternatively could look so cynical and desperate that it gets everyone out to the polling stations to say fuck off. I’m not sure the average Reform voter cares that specifically about ECHR either. They might vote for withdrawal when asked but is that enough to switch their party vote?
I don't think the Rwanda stuff matters any more, whatever happens. Everybody's bored rigid with it, even those in favour. So even if a few flights take off, I don't expect it to shift the dial. It's a sign of Sunak's hopelessness that he's invested so heavily in it.
THIS is an absolutely magnificent history book which I reckon many PBers will enjoy
Bolívar by Marie Arana
Obvs it’s the story of Simon Bolívar but it’s also the story of how independent South America was born. Absolutely incredible. Packed with juicy anecdotes, personal and geopolitical. It explains why this part of the world is as it is and how it could easily have been different
Also, chauvinistically, I had no idea how important Britain was in this story. At one point Bolivar nearly established an independent United States of South America - from Panama to Peru - which would have been a protectorate of the British empire
Yes. Britain was quite keen to pull apart the Empires of the other European nations, at least until it became obvious this would have implications for its own.
So they can 'own the libs' by delaying the GE until January. Is that what I'm hearing. Well that's fine if you don't have a problem with Ed Davey becoming Leader of the Opposition.
The latest wheeze is actually quite fun.
EXC: Tory MPs propose ‘Super Thursday’ plan - holding an ECHR Referendum on the same day as a General Election
Aimed to ‘square off’ threat from Reform and @Nigel_Farage
Could help bring in Reform voters, but alternatively could look so cynical and desperate that it gets everyone out to the polling stations to say fuck off. I’m not sure the average Reform voter cares that specifically about ECHR either. They might vote for withdrawal when asked but is that enough to switch their party vote?
Yes I read this earlier. Crazy! If I was a ReFUK voter Why would I need to vote Tory? To secure the referendum that I am voting in?
So they can 'own the libs' by delaying the GE until January. Is that what I'm hearing. Well that's fine if you don't have a problem with Ed Davey becoming Leader of the Opposition.
The latest wheeze is actually quite fun.
EXC: Tory MPs propose ‘Super Thursday’ plan - holding an ECHR Referendum on the same day as a General Election
Aimed to ‘square off’ threat from Reform and @Nigel_Farage
Could help bring in Reform voters, but alternatively could look so cynical and desperate that it gets everyone out to the polling stations to say fuck off. I’m not sure the average Reform voter cares that specifically about ECHR either. They might vote for withdrawal when asked but is that enough to switch their party vote?
In any case if it's a referendum then they don't need to switch party!
So they can 'own the libs' by delaying the GE until January. Is that what I'm hearing. Well that's fine if you don't have a problem with Ed Davey becoming Leader of the Opposition.
The latest wheeze is actually quite fun.
EXC: Tory MPs propose ‘Super Thursday’ plan - holding an ECHR Referendum on the same day as a General Election
Aimed to ‘square off’ threat from Reform and @Nigel_Farage
Could help bring in Reform voters, but alternatively could look so cynical and desperate that it gets everyone out to the polling stations to say fuck off. I’m not sure the average Reform voter cares that specifically about ECHR either. They might vote for withdrawal when asked but is that enough to switch their party vote?
How can they get this legislation passed their one nation backbenchers, let alone the HoL by this autumn?
So they can 'own the libs' by delaying the GE until January. Is that what I'm hearing. Well that's fine if you don't have a problem with Ed Davey becoming Leader of the Opposition.
The latest wheeze is actually quite fun.
EXC: Tory MPs propose ‘Super Thursday’ plan - holding an ECHR Referendum on the same day as a General Election
Aimed to ‘square off’ threat from Reform and @Nigel_Farage
Could help bring in Reform voters, but alternatively could look so cynical and desperate that it gets everyone out to the polling stations to say fuck off. I’m not sure the average Reform voter cares that specifically about ECHR either. They might vote for withdrawal when asked but is that enough to switch their party vote?
Yes I read this earlier. Crazy! If I was a ReFUK voter Why would I need to vote Tory? To secure the referendum that I am voting in?
The advantage would be to get people to talk about the ECHR and not taxation, public services, inflation - pretty much anything that the Tories have been responsible for a decade and a half.
I've already seen it persistently hallucinating wrt personal tax. As more and more of the internet gets written by these bots it's only going to get worse.
When we get to AI lawyers (AI KC + AI junior on each side) representing both sides in actual High Court trials, will the judge be AI as well?
This is a cracking game of rugby. What a superb weekend of 6 Nations.
It’s really good
There is so much young talent in the French and English sides. I suspect they will dominate world rugby for a few years as Ireland fade
If you hadn’t privatised your profile I would go back to your posts of a few short weeks ago saying English rugby was irredeemably down the shitter and Borthwick was a useless ****.
Why do some people do that. It is not as if there is anything there that people haven't posted here. Leon didn't used to and there seems to be quite a few across a range of poster types who do.
And on the subject of hiding stuff is the 'like' change going to be fixed? Let's be as open as possible on stuff, after all we have our ability to be anonymous anyway so there isn't any real loss of privacy.
I’ll do what I fucking like. Thanks
That's incredibly sensitive of you. I wasn't having a go at you at all. I was just asking why people did it and you didn't used to and lots of others do it as well. You seem to be a bit paranoid.
Some people need a confessional, preferably without their gory, contradictory, vomity confessions available to be picked over.
Alternatively, one of my best and oldest friends died yesterday of liver failure, and I am in no mood to be sniped at by dorks
Sorry to hear that. I shall try and cheer you up with an absolutely true story of my hungover quick wits this morning.
Last night I met a woman called Honey and went back home with her. In the early part of proceedings she was using my thigh as a rubbing post and I didn’t think much about it as matter progressed.
So this morning I threw on my clothes and wandered along to get my car to go home and I bumped into an old school friend I haven’t seen for ages. Anyway we were talking and he pointed at my jeans and the biological stain worthy of a Lewinsky dress and mentioned I had something on my jeans and I replied “oh that’s just a bit of Honey”.
I've already seen it persistently hallucinating wrt personal tax. As more and more of the internet gets written by these bots it's only going to get worse.
When we get to AI lawyers (AI KC + AI junior on each side) representing both sides in actual High Court trials, will the judge be AI as well?
Based on record so far, reckon a toaster oven would prove superior to a Post Office lawyer.
This is the story in the mail by the usual suspects led by Mcalpine's wife of installing Johnson in Henley at the last minute and using it as a referendum on leaving the ECHR and installing him as leader
Shame nobody has asked Johnson if he has agreed, and they are part of a tribal minority who do not have the votes to win a vonc v Sunak
Hopefully the next GE will deliver the result that consign them to the relevance of the Monster Raving Loony Party, indeed they could take it over
THIS is an absolutely magnificent history book which I reckon many PBers will enjoy
Bolívar by Marie Arana
Obvs it’s the story of Simon Bolívar but it’s also the story of how independent South America was born. Absolutely incredible. Packed with juicy anecdotes, personal and geopolitical. It explains why this part of the world is as it is and how it could easily have been different
Also, chauvinistically, I had no idea how important Britain was in this story. At one point Bolivar nearly established an independent United States of South America - from Panama to Peru - which would have been a protectorate of the British empire
Yes. Britain was quite keen to pull apart the Empires of the other European nations, at least until it became obvious this would have implications for its own.
Also Simon Bolívar lived for a while on Grafton Street W1. About 20 yards from where I lost my virginity
I’m actually surprised this isn’t mentioned in the book
So they can 'own the libs' by delaying the GE until January. Is that what I'm hearing. Well that's fine if you don't have a problem with Ed Davey becoming Leader of the Opposition.
The latest wheeze is actually quite fun.
EXC: Tory MPs propose ‘Super Thursday’ plan - holding an ECHR Referendum on the same day as a General Election
Aimed to ‘square off’ threat from Reform and @Nigel_Farage
Could help bring in Reform voters, but alternatively could look so cynical and desperate that it gets everyone out to the polling stations to say fuck off. I’m not sure the average Reform voter cares that specifically about ECHR either. They might vote for withdrawal when asked but is that enough to switch their party vote?
Yes I read this earlier. Crazy! If I was a ReFUK voter Why would I need to vote Tory? To secure the referendum that I am voting in?
The advantage would be to get people to talk about the ECHR and not taxation, public services, inflation - pretty much anything that the Tories have been responsible for a decade and a half.
The election would likely drown out any focus on ECHR anyway. I doubt Starmer would fall into the trap - Labour would scarcely talk about it, other than to say the referendum is another chance on election day to give your verdict on 14 years of Tory rule.
Though it’s one of those topics that if it did get focus would probably help to convince people it’s not such a good idea to leave.
THIS is an absolutely magnificent history book which I reckon many PBers will enjoy
Bolívar by Marie Arana
Obvs it’s the story of Simon Bolívar but it’s also the story of how independent South America was born. Absolutely incredible. Packed with juicy anecdotes, personal and geopolitical. It explains why this part of the world is as it is and how it could easily have been different
Also, chauvinistically, I had no idea how important Britain was in this story. At one point Bolivar nearly established an independent United States of South America - from Panama to Peru - which would have been a protectorate of the British empire
Have you read/listened to "The Open Veins of Latin America" by Galeano?
It's a great overview and gives a lot of insight into the post independence history of the continent and its problems.
THIS is an absolutely magnificent history book which I reckon many PBers will enjoy
Bolívar by Marie Arana
Obvs it’s the story of Simon Bolívar but it’s also the story of how independent South America was born. Absolutely incredible. Packed with juicy anecdotes, personal and geopolitical. It explains why this part of the world is as it is and how it could easily have been different
Also, chauvinistically, I had no idea how important Britain was in this story. At one point Bolivar nearly established an independent United States of South America - from Panama to Peru - which would have been a protectorate of the British empire
Yes. Britain was quite keen to pull apart the Empires of the other European nations, at least until it became obvious this would have implications for its own.
Also Simon Bolívar lived for a while on Grafton Street W1. About 20 yards from where I lost my virginity
I’m actually surprised this isn’t mentioned in the book
This sort of book is often revised and updated. I'm sure if you write in they will oblige.
I've already seen it persistently hallucinating wrt personal tax. As more and more of the internet gets written by these bots it's only going to get worse.
When we get to AI lawyers (AI KC + AI junior on each side) representing both sides in actual High Court trials, will the judge be AI as well?
Looking at that table, leaving it until late in the year is just going to annoy.
What is the point of carrying on? What is it that Sunak actually wants to do with the time?
I fear it's to get 200 unfortunates on a plane to Rwanda, just to show he can.
Otherwise, to give the horse some more singing lessons.
But a single flight isn't going to cut it. Not now, not after all this time - and especially not after committing so much money.
£370m divided by 200 is an easy enough sum to do. Labour won't need to put the figure on a side of a bus - it's all the media will be talking about for weeks after the flight departs.
Unless there's a steady stream of departures, the Rwanda scheme can only cause further harm to the Tories at this point.
And that's the problem.
Rwanda haven't signed up to take a steady stream (they're not idiots) and don't have the capacity to process them. So what happens on R-Day plus one?
Rwanda only really works as a political talking point as long as it doesn't happen. Then it turns into an unpleasant impractical way to not solve problems. Reminds me of another cherished project of the Conservative right.
(It would make calling the election very soon, while it's still up in the air, sensible. But given the insanity of the Rwanda (up is down) bill, sensible seems to gave gone out of the window a while back.)
Rwanda was dreamt up in the dying days of the Johnson administration as a desperate attempt to save him. It should have been dumped when he left.
THIS is an absolutely magnificent history book which I reckon many PBers will enjoy
Bolívar by Marie Arana
Obvs it’s the story of Simon Bolívar but it’s also the story of how independent South America was born. Absolutely incredible. Packed with juicy anecdotes, personal and geopolitical. It explains why this part of the world is as it is and how it could easily have been different
Also, chauvinistically, I had no idea how important Britain was in this story. At one point Bolivar nearly established an independent United States of South America - from Panama to Peru - which would have been a protectorate of the British empire
Yes. Britain was quite keen to pull apart the Empires of the other European nations, at least until it became obvious this would have implications for its own.
Also Simon Bolívar lived for a while on Grafton Street W1. About 20 yards from where I lost my virginity
I’m actually surprised this isn’t mentioned in the book
This sort of book is often revised and updated. I'm sure if you write in they will oblige.
Yes. I might reach out to the author or publishers
It’s a pretty major lacuna in an otherwise magisterial book. You read the London sections with a sense of mild disbelief that she doesn’t even mention this tangentially, whereas many writers would surely have given it a chapter by itself
THIS is an absolutely magnificent history book which I reckon many PBers will enjoy
Bolívar by Marie Arana
Obvs it’s the story of Simon Bolívar but it’s also the story of how independent South America was born. Absolutely incredible. Packed with juicy anecdotes, personal and geopolitical. It explains why this part of the world is as it is and how it could easily have been different
Also, chauvinistically, I had no idea how important Britain was in this story. At one point Bolivar nearly established an independent United States of South America - from Panama to Peru - which would have been a protectorate of the British empire
Yes. Britain was quite keen to pull apart the Empires of the other European nations, at least until it became obvious this would have implications for its own.
Also Simon Bolívar lived for a while on Grafton Street W1. About 20 yards from where I lost my virginity
I’m actually surprised this isn’t mentioned in the book
This sort of book is often revised and updated. I'm sure if you write in they will oblige.
Yes. I might reach out to the author or publishers
It’s a pretty major lacuna in an otherwise magisterial book. You read the London sections with a sense of mild disbelief that she doesn’t even mention this tangentially, whereas many writers would surely have given it a chapter by itself
Tsk
I strongly suspect she's holding out for a second volume. There can be no other reason.
THIS is an absolutely magnificent history book which I reckon many PBers will enjoy
Bolívar by Marie Arana
Obvs it’s the story of Simon Bolívar but it’s also the story of how independent South America was born. Absolutely incredible. Packed with juicy anecdotes, personal and geopolitical. It explains why this part of the world is as it is and how it could easily have been different
Also, chauvinistically, I had no idea how important Britain was in this story. At one point Bolivar nearly established an independent United States of South America - from Panama to Peru - which would have been a protectorate of the British empire
Have you read/listened to "The Open Veins of Latin America" by Galeano?
It's a great overview and gives a lot of insight into the post independence history of the continent and its problems.
I haven’t. I shall investigate - Gracias
Colombia is all kinds of messed up but the history is brilliantly vivid. I can’t get enough of it
Britain elects has just dropped a series of polls all at once, which is useful. Some have already been posted on here but I think most are pretty recent.
LLG:RefCon scores:
WeThink 58:37 (RefCon up 4) Opinium 58:36 (LLG up 1) BMG 57:38 (RefCon flat bit their best result) YouGov 63:33 (LLG up 3) Techne 61:30 (RefCon up 1)
The difference between 63:33 and 57:38, assuming minor party squeeze, is the difference between a fairly small Labour majority and a wipeout.
The LLG v Conref does seem to be closing up quite a lot recently, or am I just imagining it?
Right of centre don’t knows rejoining the game?
Maybe we have underestimated just how much of a turn off Labour still are to so many voters. Personally speaking they are a turn off for me, just four years ago they were a Marxist Leninist party with a communist manifesto and a vile antisemitic leader in love with the Kremlin and a friend to British hating terrorists the world over, and the current Labour leader and deputy acting big wigs in that politburo campaigning to install Corbyn as our PM. When Starmer says “we’ve changed” does he mean he’s changed his own views? The left and union Barons are suspiciously quiet, is the truth.
When voting comes, Labour supporters may be surprised by how suspicious many voters still are about Labour.
THIS is an absolutely magnificent history book which I reckon many PBers will enjoy
Bolívar by Marie Arana
Obvs it’s the story of Simon Bolívar but it’s also the story of how independent South America was born. Absolutely incredible. Packed with juicy anecdotes, personal and geopolitical. It explains why this part of the world is as it is and how it could easily have been different
Also, chauvinistically, I had no idea how important Britain was in this story. At one point Bolivar nearly established an independent United States of South America - from Panama to Peru - which would have been a protectorate of the British empire
Have you read/listened to "The Open Veins of Latin America" by Galeano?
It's a great overview and gives a lot of insight into the post independence history of the continent and its problems.
I haven’t. I shall investigate - Gracias
Colombia is all kinds of messed up but the history is brilliantly vivid. I can’t get enough of it
So they can 'own the libs' by delaying the GE until January. Is that what I'm hearing. Well that's fine if you don't have a problem with Ed Davey becoming Leader of the Opposition.
The latest wheeze is actually quite fun.
EXC: Tory MPs propose ‘Super Thursday’ plan - holding an ECHR Referendum on the same day as a General Election
Aimed to ‘square off’ threat from Reform and @Nigel_Farage
Could help bring in Reform voters, but alternatively could look so cynical and desperate that it gets everyone out to the polling stations to say fuck off. I’m not sure the average Reform voter cares that specifically about ECHR either. They might vote for withdrawal when asked but is that enough to switch their party vote?
Yes I read this earlier. Crazy! If I was a ReFUK voter Why would I need to vote Tory? To secure the referendum that I am voting in?
The advantage would be to get people to talk about the ECHR and not taxation, public services, inflation - pretty much anything that the Tories have been responsible for a decade and a half.
The election would likely drown out any focus on ECHR anyway. I doubt Starmer would fall into the trap - Labour would scarcely talk about it, other than to say the referendum is another chance on election day to give your verdict on 14 years of Tory rule.
Though it’s one of those topics that if it did get focus would probably help to convince people it’s not such a good idea to leave.
Problem for Tories re: EU bashing, is that they've gone to THAT well tooooooo many times already.
In the process they've (one way or another) been alienating, deceiving, disappointing, etc., etc., AND warning approx. 95% of voters (at least 19 times out of 20) NOT to believe anything they say about Europe. Among other things.
An excerpt from Bolívar. It’s all like this. I’ve never even HEARD of the “Legions of Hell” until now
“British travelers in the service of Spain now noted a marked change in Caracas. Spaniards were being dragged to the dungeons, made to surrender their wealth to patriot coffers. The unwilling were taken to the marketplace and shot. Not outright, but limb by limb, so that onlookers could watch them wriggle as musicians struck up lively airs. These spectacles caused such merriment that the multitude, provoked to an obscene frenzy, would finally cry, “Kill him!” and the executioner would end the victim’s suffering with a final bullet to the brain. A Spaniard in agony had become a source of amusement, a ready carousel of laughs.
Outside Caracas patriots hardly fared better. The “Legions of Hell”—hordes of wild and truculent plainsmen—rode out of the barren llanos to punish anyone who dared call himself a rebel. Leading these colored troops was the fearsome José Tomás Boves. A Spanish sailor from Asturias, Boves had been arrested at sea for smuggling, sent to the dungeons of Puerto Cabello, then exiled to the Venezuelan prairie, where he fell in with marauding cowboys. He was fair-haired, strong-shouldered, with an enormous head, piercing blue eyes, and a pronounced sadistic streak. Loved by his feral cohort with a passion verging on worship, he led them to unimaginable violence. As Bolívar’s aide Daniel O’Leary later wrote, “Of all the monsters produced by the revolution . . . Boves was the worst.” He was a barbarian of epic proportions, an Attila for the Americas. Recruited by Monteverde but beholden to no one, Boves raised a formidable army of black, pardo, and mestizo llaneros by promising them open plunder, rich booty, and a chance to exterminate the Creole class.
The llaneros were accomplished horsemen, well trained in the art of warfare. They needed few worldly goods, rode bareback, covered their nakedness with loincloths. They consumed only meat, which they strapped to their horses’ flanks and cured by the sweat of the racing animals. They made tents from hides, slept on earth, reveled in hardship. They lived on the open prairie, which was parched by heat, impassable in the rains. Their weapon of choice was a long lance of alvarico palm, hardened to a sharp point in the campfire. They were accustomed to making rapid raids, swimming on horseback through rampant floods, the sum of their earthly possessions in leather pouches balanced on their heads or clenched between their teeth. They could ride at a gallop, like the armies of Genghis Khan, dangling from the side of a horse, so that their bodies were rendered invisible, untouchable, their killing lances straight and sure against a baffled enemy.”
THIS is an absolutely magnificent history book which I reckon many PBers will enjoy
Bolívar by Marie Arana
Obvs it’s the story of Simon Bolívar but it’s also the story of how independent South America was born. Absolutely incredible. Packed with juicy anecdotes, personal and geopolitical. It explains why this part of the world is as it is and how it could easily have been different
Also, chauvinistically, I had no idea how important Britain was in this story. At one point Bolivar nearly established an independent United States of South America - from Panama to Peru - which would have been a protectorate of the British empire
Have you read/listened to "The Open Veins of Latin America" by Galeano?
It's a great overview and gives a lot of insight into the post independence history of the continent and its problems.
I haven’t. I shall investigate - Gracias
Colombia is all kinds of messed up but the history is brilliantly vivid. I can’t get enough of it
Have you checked out the Gold Museum in Bogota yet?
THIS is an absolutely magnificent history book which I reckon many PBers will enjoy
Bolívar by Marie Arana
Obvs it’s the story of Simon Bolívar but it’s also the story of how independent South America was born. Absolutely incredible. Packed with juicy anecdotes, personal and geopolitical. It explains why this part of the world is as it is and how it could easily have been different
Also, chauvinistically, I had no idea how important Britain was in this story. At one point Bolivar nearly established an independent United States of South America - from Panama to Peru - which would have been a protectorate of the British empire
Have you read/listened to "The Open Veins of Latin America" by Galeano?
It's a great overview and gives a lot of insight into the post independence history of the continent and its problems.
I haven’t. I shall investigate - Gracias
Colombia is all kinds of messed up but the history is brilliantly vivid. I can’t get enough of it
Have you checked out the Gold Museum in Bogota yet?
I haven’t. Should I?
I might have one day in Bogota at the end of this trip next week
THIS is an absolutely magnificent history book which I reckon many PBers will enjoy
Bolívar by Marie Arana
Obvs it’s the story of Simon Bolívar but it’s also the story of how independent South America was born. Absolutely incredible. Packed with juicy anecdotes, personal and geopolitical. It explains why this part of the world is as it is and how it could easily have been different
Also, chauvinistically, I had no idea how important Britain was in this story. At one point Bolivar nearly established an independent United States of South America - from Panama to Peru - which would have been a protectorate of the British empire
Have you read/listened to "The Open Veins of Latin America" by Galeano?
It's a great overview and gives a lot of insight into the post independence history of the continent and its problems.
I haven’t. I shall investigate - Gracias
Colombia is all kinds of messed up but the history is brilliantly vivid. I can’t get enough of it
The Kate Middleton proof of life photograph is missing a copy of a newspaper to show that it wasn't taken before her hospital stay.
She was photographed in the car leaving hospital with her parents - the UK press apparently never publishes papped photos of the Royals since Diana died.
An excerpt from Bolívar. It’s all like this. I’ve never even HEARD of the “Legions of Hell” until now
“British travelers in the service of Spain now noted a marked change in Caracas. Spaniards were being dragged to the dungeons, made to surrender their wealth to patriot coffers. The unwilling were taken to the marketplace and shot. Not outright, but limb by limb, so that onlookers could watch them wriggle as musicians struck up lively airs. These spectacles caused such merriment that the multitude, provoked to an obscene frenzy, would finally cry, “Kill him!” and the executioner would end the victim’s suffering with a final bullet to the brain. A Spaniard in agony had become a source of amusement, a ready carousel of laughs.
Outside Caracas patriots hardly fared better. The “Legions of Hell”—hordes of wild and truculent plainsmen—rode out of the barren llanos to punish anyone who dared call himself a rebel. Leading these colored troops was the fearsome José Tomás Boves. A Spanish sailor from Asturias, Boves had been arrested at sea for smuggling, sent to the dungeons of Puerto Cabello, then exiled to the Venezuelan prairie, where he fell in with marauding cowboys. He was fair-haired, strong-shouldered, with an enormous head, piercing blue eyes, and a pronounced sadistic streak. Loved by his feral cohort with a passion verging on worship, he led them to unimaginable violence. As Bolívar’s aide Daniel O’Leary later wrote, “Of all the monsters produced by the revolution . . . Boves was the worst.” He was a barbarian of epic proportions, an Attila for the Americas. Recruited by Monteverde but beholden to no one, Boves raised a formidable army of black, pardo, and mestizo llaneros by promising them open plunder, rich booty, and a chance to exterminate the Creole class.
The llaneros were accomplished horsemen, well trained in the art of warfare. They needed few worldly goods, rode bareback, covered their nakedness with loincloths. They consumed only meat, which they strapped to their horses’ flanks and cured by the sweat of the racing animals. They made tents from hides, slept on earth, reveled in hardship. They lived on the open prairie, which was parched by heat, impassable in the rains. Their weapon of choice was a long lance of alvarico palm, hardened to a sharp point in the campfire. They were accustomed to making rapid raids, swimming on horseback through rampant floods, the sum of their earthly possessions in leather pouches balanced on their heads or clenched between their teeth. They could ride at a gallop, like the armies of Genghis Khan, dangling from the side of a horse, so that their bodies were rendered invisible, untouchable, their killing lances straight and sure against a baffled enemy.”
The Columbian Llanos is quite a lot like the Pantanal, supposed to be great for wildlife.
The New York Times has been forced in court to admit its hallowed “bestseller list” is complete bollocks. It is not based on objective sales data, it is a list of books the editors prefer. So they exclude conservative books
The New York Times has been forced in court to admit its hallowed “bestseller list” is complete bollocks. It is not based on objective sales data, it is a list of books the editors prefer. So they exclude conservative books
An excerpt from Bolívar. It’s all like this. I’ve never even HEARD of the “Legions of Hell” until now
“British travelers in the service of Spain now noted a marked change in Caracas. Spaniards were being dragged to the dungeons, made to surrender their wealth to patriot coffers. The unwilling were taken to the marketplace and shot. Not outright, but limb by limb, so that onlookers could watch them wriggle as musicians struck up lively airs. These spectacles caused such merriment that the multitude, provoked to an obscene frenzy, would finally cry, “Kill him!” and the executioner would end the victim’s suffering with a final bullet to the brain. A Spaniard in agony had become a source of amusement, a ready carousel of laughs.
Outside Caracas patriots hardly fared better. The “Legions of Hell”—hordes of wild and truculent plainsmen—rode out of the barren llanos to punish anyone who dared call himself a rebel. Leading these colored troops was the fearsome José Tomás Boves. A Spanish sailor from Asturias, Boves had been arrested at sea for smuggling, sent to the dungeons of Puerto Cabello, then exiled to the Venezuelan prairie, where he fell in with marauding cowboys. He was fair-haired, strong-shouldered, with an enormous head, piercing blue eyes, and a pronounced sadistic streak. Loved by his feral cohort with a passion verging on worship, he led them to unimaginable violence. As Bolívar’s aide Daniel O’Leary later wrote, “Of all the monsters produced by the revolution . . . Boves was the worst.” He was a barbarian of epic proportions, an Attila for the Americas. Recruited by Monteverde but beholden to no one, Boves raised a formidable army of black, pardo, and mestizo llaneros by promising them open plunder, rich booty, and a chance to exterminate the Creole class.
The llaneros were accomplished horsemen, well trained in the art of warfare. They needed few worldly goods, rode bareback, covered their nakedness with loincloths. They consumed only meat, which they strapped to their horses’ flanks and cured by the sweat of the racing animals. They made tents from hides, slept on earth, reveled in hardship. They lived on the open prairie, which was parched by heat, impassable in the rains. Their weapon of choice was a long lance of alvarico palm, hardened to a sharp point in the campfire. They were accustomed to making rapid raids, swimming on horseback through rampant floods, the sum of their earthly possessions in leather pouches balanced on their heads or clenched between their teeth. They could ride at a gallop, like the armies of Genghis Khan, dangling from the side of a horse, so that their bodies were rendered invisible, untouchable, their killing lances straight and sure against a baffled enemy.”
The Columbian Llanos is quite a lot like the Pantanal, supposed to be great for wildlife.
This is the story in the mail by the usual suspects led by Mcalpine's wife of installing Johnson in Henley at the last minute and using it as a referendum on leaving the ECHR and installing him as leader
Shame nobody has asked Johnson if he has agreed, and they are part of a tribal minority who do not have the votes to win a vonc v Sunak
Hopefully the next GE will deliver the result that consign them to the relevance of the Monster Raving Loony Party, indeed they could take it over
Henley is also a prime LD target seat now, Boris should have stayed in Henley
An excerpt from Bolívar. It’s all like this. I’ve never even HEARD of the “Legions of Hell” until now
“British travelers in the service of Spain now noted a marked change in Caracas. Spaniards were being dragged to the dungeons, made to surrender their wealth to patriot coffers. The unwilling were taken to the marketplace and shot. Not outright, but limb by limb, so that onlookers could watch them wriggle as musicians struck up lively airs. These spectacles caused such merriment that the multitude, provoked to an obscene frenzy, would finally cry, “Kill him!” and the executioner would end the victim’s suffering with a final bullet to the brain. A Spaniard in agony had become a source of amusement, a ready carousel of laughs.
Outside Caracas patriots hardly fared better. The “Legions of Hell”—hordes of wild and truculent plainsmen—rode out of the barren llanos to punish anyone who dared call himself a rebel. Leading these colored troops was the fearsome José Tomás Boves. A Spanish sailor from Asturias, Boves had been arrested at sea for smuggling, sent to the dungeons of Puerto Cabello, then exiled to the Venezuelan prairie, where he fell in with marauding cowboys. He was fair-haired, strong-shouldered, with an enormous head, piercing blue eyes, and a pronounced sadistic streak. Loved by his feral cohort with a passion verging on worship, he led them to unimaginable violence. As Bolívar’s aide Daniel O’Leary later wrote, “Of all the monsters produced by the revolution . . . Boves was the worst.” He was a barbarian of epic proportions, an Attila for the Americas. Recruited by Monteverde but beholden to no one, Boves raised a formidable army of black, pardo, and mestizo llaneros by promising them open plunder, rich booty, and a chance to exterminate the Creole class.
The llaneros were accomplished horsemen, well trained in the art of warfare. They needed few worldly goods, rode bareback, covered their nakedness with loincloths. They consumed only meat, which they strapped to their horses’ flanks and cured by the sweat of the racing animals. They made tents from hides, slept on earth, reveled in hardship. They lived on the open prairie, which was parched by heat, impassable in the rains. Their weapon of choice was a long lance of alvarico palm, hardened to a sharp point in the campfire. They were accustomed to making rapid raids, swimming on horseback through rampant floods, the sum of their earthly possessions in leather pouches balanced on their heads or clenched between their teeth. They could ride at a gallop, like the armies of Genghis Khan, dangling from the side of a horse, so that their bodies were rendered invisible, untouchable, their killing lances straight and sure against a baffled enemy.”
The Columbian Llanos is quite a lot like the Pantanal, supposed to be great for wildlife.
The more I explore South America the more interesting it gets. Every country adds to the story
And the landscapes are so epic
Damn shame so much of it is sketchy and violent. Also they’ve gotta work on the food. They’ve sorted out the wine with Argentinian Malbec and Chilean cab sauv but their food game is lame
So they can 'own the libs' by delaying the GE until January. Is that what I'm hearing. Well that's fine if you don't have a problem with Ed Davey becoming Leader of the Opposition.
The latest wheeze is actually quite fun.
EXC: Tory MPs propose ‘Super Thursday’ plan - holding an ECHR Referendum on the same day as a General Election
Aimed to ‘square off’ threat from Reform and @Nigel_Farage
Could help bring in Reform voters, but alternatively could look so cynical and desperate that it gets everyone out to the polling stations to say fuck off. I’m not sure the average Reform voter cares that specifically about ECHR either. They might vote for withdrawal when asked but is that enough to switch their party vote?
56% to 32% in the latest polling, the UK electorate think Brexit was a mistake. An ECHR referendum, or Brexit 2 Brex Harder, would be a massive dud.
Still 130 short of the 180+ Tory MPs they need to oust Sunak in a VONC
I agree.
Although the mere existence of a VONC and wall to wall news of infighting and split party at war and more interested in jaw jaw about itself, would itself stop swingback and prevent a general election in rest of May and June, it’s not at all part of my calculation for a spring rather than autumn/winter election saving more seats.
During summer, interim covid report comes out and boat crossing surge will be much of the news narrative (as well as Taylor Swift who will dominate UK front pages for months) away from that eyes of us political nerdy people will be on economic and financial gages and dials to see if upticks can change Tory polling.
I don't think the Rwanda stuff matters any more, whatever happens. Everybody's bored rigid with it, even those in favour. So even if a few flights take off, I don't expect it to shift the dial. It's a sign of Sunak's hopelessness that he's invested so heavily in it.
The purpose of Rwanda was to be seen to have a muscular "plan" for illegal immigration and to allow them to taunt those opposed to the idea with "what would you do?" £200 million to an African despot with a carefully crafted PR image was an acceptable price for that narrative and political advantage. It worked as intended, as we saw from comments by some on this board.
Rwanda was never meant to solve anything, which suggests those proposing it weren't serious about implementation. But somehow the Sunak government ended up fully invested. A smarter politician would have quietly let the proposal lapse once the political goodness had been extracted from it. Rwanda is now just an albatross.
So they can 'own the libs' by delaying the GE until January. Is that what I'm hearing. Well that's fine if you don't have a problem with Ed Davey becoming Leader of the Opposition.
The latest wheeze is actually quite fun.
EXC: Tory MPs propose ‘Super Thursday’ plan - holding an ECHR Referendum on the same day as a General Election
Aimed to ‘square off’ threat from Reform and @Nigel_Farage
Could help bring in Reform voters, but alternatively could look so cynical and desperate that it gets everyone out to the polling stations to say fuck off. I’m not sure the average Reform voter cares that specifically about ECHR either. They might vote for withdrawal when asked but is that enough to switch their party vote?
56% to 32% in the latest polling, the UK electorate think Brexit was a mistake. An ECHR referendum, or Brexit 2 Brex Harder, would be a massive dud.
No it wouldn’t. Not if it persuaded many of those 32% to vote Tory. That would save the party from possible extinction
The Tories are at the edge of the abyss. Some polls put them under 20%. That’s absolute wipe out territory - from which they might never recover
The ECHR idea is a mad gamble but that’s what they need now. A mad gamble. They have nothing to lose, it cannot get worse
So they can 'own the libs' by delaying the GE until January. Is that what I'm hearing. Well that's fine if you don't have a problem with Ed Davey becoming Leader of the Opposition.
The latest wheeze is actually quite fun.
EXC: Tory MPs propose ‘Super Thursday’ plan - holding an ECHR Referendum on the same day as a General Election
Aimed to ‘square off’ threat from Reform and @Nigel_Farage
Could help bring in Reform voters, but alternatively could look so cynical and desperate that it gets everyone out to the polling stations to say fuck off. I’m not sure the average Reform voter cares that specifically about ECHR either. They might vote for withdrawal when asked but is that enough to switch their party vote?
56% to 32% in the latest polling, the UK electorate think Brexit was a mistake. An ECHR referendum, or Brexit 2 Brex Harder, would be a massive dud.
No it wouldn’t. Not if it persuaded many of those 32% to vote Tory. That would save the party from possible extinction
The Tories are at the edge of the abyss. Some polls put them under 20%. That’s absolute wipe out territory - from which they might never recover
The ECHR idea is a mad gamble but that’s what they need now. A mad gamble. They have nothing to lose, it cannot get worse
It's all nuts. The ECHR is really quite nonsensical. Law made for the lawless which overrides the lawful. I think we all see it as a nice idea, but it's just misguided in principal. A reframing, which might well deliver much the same, but has some sanity as to its aims is in order.
Belatedly, given all the doggie excitement, today’s Sunday Rawnsley:
I have lost count of how many times I have heard angsty Labour people tell me that Sir Keir Starmer’s huge advantage in the opinion polls is bound to shrivel. “The polls will tighten” is the mantra also to be heard from Tory people. It is the result of their yearning to find a reason to be cheerful accompanied by sheer disbelief that Labour can really be so far ahead.
If anything, the Conservative outlook has not brightened with the passing of time, it has grown more occluded as they have clattered closer to the buffers.
I have been immune to the recent outbreak at Westminster of spring election fever. So long as they have road left to run, prime ministers do not willingly submit to a contest when they are being told that they will be crushed by the challenger. Another reason for my scepticism about a spring election is that Mr Sunak, who assumed office on 25 October 2022, has been at Number 10 for just 16 months. He will at least be able to claim he had two years as prime minister if he can make it to November.
“This had better work, because nothing else is,” one senior Tory remarked to me shortly before the chancellor got to his feet – only to disappoint those in his party looking for a miracle. It was foolish for them to invest big expectations in this budget because that required the chancellor to be a magician (which he isn’t) with lots of cash to splash (which he hasn’t). Analysts are almost universally agreed that Mr Hunt peddled fiscal fantasies based on fictions about future spending and taxation that will unravel once we have got to the other side of the election.
Far from voters being wowed, seduced or even mildly impressed, more than twice as many respondents rated it a bad budget as those who thought it good. One member of the cabinet, who is usually among its more upbeat members, sighed to me: “The electorate have basically decided that they’ve had enough of the Tories.”
THIS is an absolutely magnificent history book which I reckon many PBers will enjoy
Bolívar by Marie Arana
Obvs it’s the story of Simon Bolívar but it’s also the story of how independent South America was born. Absolutely incredible. Packed with juicy anecdotes, personal and geopolitical. It explains why this part of the world is as it is and how it could easily have been different
Also, chauvinistically, I had no idea how important Britain was in this story. At one point Bolivar nearly established an independent United States of South America - from Panama to Peru - which would have been a protectorate of the British empire
Yes. Britain was quite keen to pull apart the Empires of the other European nations, at least until it became obvious this would have implications for its own.
Also Simon Bolívar lived for a while on Grafton Street W1. About 20 yards from where I lost my virginity
I’m actually surprised this isn’t mentioned in the book
This sort of book is often revised and updated. I'm sure if you write in they will oblige.
Yes. I might reach out to the author or publishers
It’s a pretty major lacuna in an otherwise magisterial book. You read the London sections with a sense of mild disbelief that she doesn’t even mention this tangentially, whereas many writers would surely have given it a chapter by itself
Tsk
I strongly suspect she's holding out for a second volume. There can be no other reason.
Surely there must be at least the briefest of footnotes, given the likely duration of this seminal event.
Does election have to be Thursday by law? What would a government to do to be allowed choose any day of a week?
Or even two days, like Saturday and Sunday with results counted Sunday nights and through next day? Saturday Sunday election is more sensible than Thursdays, no?
THIS is an absolutely magnificent history book which I reckon many PBers will enjoy
Bolívar by Marie Arana
Obvs it’s the story of Simon Bolívar but it’s also the story of how independent South America was born. Absolutely incredible. Packed with juicy anecdotes, personal and geopolitical. It explains why this part of the world is as it is and how it could easily have been different
Also, chauvinistically, I had no idea how important Britain was in this story. At one point Bolivar nearly established an independent United States of South America - from Panama to Peru - which would have been a protectorate of the British empire
Yes. Britain was quite keen to pull apart the Empires of the other European nations, at least until it became obvious this would have implications for its own.
Also Simon Bolívar lived for a while on Grafton Street W1. About 20 yards from where I lost my virginity
I’m actually surprised this isn’t mentioned in the book
This sort of book is often revised and updated. I'm sure if you write in they will oblige.
Yes. I might reach out to the author or publishers
It’s a pretty major lacuna in an otherwise magisterial book. You read the London sections with a sense of mild disbelief that she doesn’t even mention this tangentially, whereas many writers would surely have given it a chapter by itself
Tsk
I strongly suspect she's holding out for a second volume. There can be no other reason.
Surely there must be at least the briefest of footnotes, given the likely duration of this seminal event.
THIS is an absolutely magnificent history book which I reckon many PBers will enjoy
Bolívar by Marie Arana
Obvs it’s the story of Simon Bolívar but it’s also the story of how independent South America was born. Absolutely incredible. Packed with juicy anecdotes, personal and geopolitical. It explains why this part of the world is as it is and how it could easily have been different
Also, chauvinistically, I had no idea how important Britain was in this story. At one point Bolivar nearly established an independent United States of South America - from Panama to Peru - which would have been a protectorate of the British empire
Have you read/listened to "The Open Veins of Latin America" by Galeano?
It's a great overview and gives a lot of insight into the post independence history of the continent and its problems.
I haven’t. I shall investigate - Gracias
Colombia is all kinds of messed up but the history is brilliantly vivid. I can’t get enough of it
Have you checked out the Gold Museum in Bogota yet?
I haven’t. Should I?
I might have one day in Bogota at the end of this trip next week
Yes, you must. One of the finest museums in the world. Says...the world.
So they can 'own the libs' by delaying the GE until January. Is that what I'm hearing. Well that's fine if you don't have a problem with Ed Davey becoming Leader of the Opposition.
The latest wheeze is actually quite fun.
EXC: Tory MPs propose ‘Super Thursday’ plan - holding an ECHR Referendum on the same day as a General Election
Aimed to ‘square off’ threat from Reform and @Nigel_Farage
Could help bring in Reform voters, but alternatively could look so cynical and desperate that it gets everyone out to the polling stations to say fuck off. I’m not sure the average Reform voter cares that specifically about ECHR either. They might vote for withdrawal when asked but is that enough to switch their party vote?
56% to 32% in the latest polling, the UK electorate think Brexit was a mistake. An ECHR referendum, or Brexit 2 Brex Harder, would be a massive dud.
No it wouldn’t. Not if it persuaded many of those 32% to vote Tory. That would save the party from possible extinction
The Tories are at the edge of the abyss. Some polls put them under 20%. That’s absolute wipe out territory - from which they might never recover
The ECHR idea is a mad gamble but that’s what they need now. A mad gamble. They have nothing to lose, it cannot get worse
Put like that, it's not a gamble, sure.
But "it cannot get worse" feels like a brave statement, if I might be so bold.
Hate to bring the conversation round to THE BREGGSIT but Tim Shipman's round up of likely Starmer steps towards further agreements with the EU in The Times is worth a read:
Deals with the EU are both more necessary and harder to do than Shipman implies, assuming the next government wants economic growth and in a context where most people in the UK think Brexit was a mistake and almost everyone in the Labour Party thinks that.
I suspect the next government will swallow the medicine on this
So they can 'own the libs' by delaying the GE until January. Is that what I'm hearing. Well that's fine if you don't have a problem with Ed Davey becoming Leader of the Opposition.
The latest wheeze is actually quite fun.
EXC: Tory MPs propose ‘Super Thursday’ plan - holding an ECHR Referendum on the same day as a General Election
Aimed to ‘square off’ threat from Reform and @Nigel_Farage
Could help bring in Reform voters, but alternatively could look so cynical and desperate that it gets everyone out to the polling stations to say fuck off. I’m not sure the average Reform voter cares that specifically about ECHR either. They might vote for withdrawal when asked but is that enough to switch their party vote?
56% to 32% in the latest polling, the UK electorate think Brexit was a mistake. An ECHR referendum, or Brexit 2 Brex Harder, would be a massive dud.
No it wouldn’t. Not if it persuaded many of those 32% to vote Tory. That would save the party from possible extinction
The Tories are at the edge of the abyss. Some polls put them under 20%. That’s absolute wipe out territory - from which they might never recover
The ECHR idea is a mad gamble but that’s what they need now. A mad gamble. They have nothing to lose, it cannot get worse
Put like that, it's not a gamble, sure.
But "it cannot get worse" feels like a brave statement, if I might be so bold.
What's the difference between a Conservative optimist and a Conservative pessimist?
A Conservative pessimist says, 'things are so bad they cannot possibly get any worse.'
A conservative optimist says 'they will, they really will.'
So they can 'own the libs' by delaying the GE until January. Is that what I'm hearing. Well that's fine if you don't have a problem with Ed Davey becoming Leader of the Opposition.
The latest wheeze is actually quite fun.
EXC: Tory MPs propose ‘Super Thursday’ plan - holding an ECHR Referendum on the same day as a General Election
Aimed to ‘square off’ threat from Reform and @Nigel_Farage
Could help bring in Reform voters, but alternatively could look so cynical and desperate that it gets everyone out to the polling stations to say fuck off. I’m not sure the average Reform voter cares that specifically about ECHR either. They might vote for withdrawal when asked but is that enough to switch their party vote?
56% to 32% in the latest polling, the UK electorate think Brexit was a mistake. An ECHR referendum, or Brexit 2 Brex Harder, would be a massive dud.
No it wouldn’t. Not if it persuaded many of those 32% to vote Tory. That would save the party from possible extinction
The Tories are at the edge of the abyss. Some polls put them under 20%. That’s absolute wipe out territory - from which they might never recover
The ECHR idea is a mad gamble but that’s what they need now. A mad gamble. They have nothing to lose, it cannot get worse
Put like that, it's not a gamble, sure.
But "it cannot get worse" feels like a brave statement, if I might be so bold.
Indeed. It's true they probably need a huge gamble, but that comes with its own risks.
The other problem they have (ok, one of them), is that they are so obviously in a dire situation that any bold game will immediately look like a desperate gamble.
So trying to present as steady as she goes looks delusional, whereas trying to look bold looks desperate. Tough job.
THIS is an absolutely magnificent history book which I reckon many PBers will enjoy
Bolívar by Marie Arana
Obvs it’s the story of Simon Bolívar but it’s also the story of how independent South America was born. Absolutely incredible. Packed with juicy anecdotes, personal and geopolitical. It explains why this part of the world is as it is and how it could easily have been different
Also, chauvinistically, I had no idea how important Britain was in this story. At one point Bolivar nearly established an independent United States of South America - from Panama to Peru - which would have been a protectorate of the British empire
Have you read/listened to "The Open Veins of Latin America" by Galeano?
It's a great overview and gives a lot of insight into the post independence history of the continent and its problems.
I haven’t. I shall investigate - Gracias
Colombia is all kinds of messed up but the history is brilliantly vivid. I can’t get enough of it
Have you checked out the Gold Museum in Bogota yet?
I haven’t. Should I?
I might have one day in Bogota at the end of this trip next week
Yes, you must. One of the finest museums in the world. Says...the world.
I have some vague recollection of going to a Lapis Lazuli museum in Santiago - at the behest of a guide that I was paying for. Basically a shop, and wouldn't I like to buy.
I also had a similar experience in Jerusalem where the guide finished his tour in a similar way - and in that instance he was being paid (not by me) ridiculously well.
So they can 'own the libs' by delaying the GE until January. Is that what I'm hearing. Well that's fine if you don't have a problem with Ed Davey becoming Leader of the Opposition.
The latest wheeze is actually quite fun.
EXC: Tory MPs propose ‘Super Thursday’ plan - holding an ECHR Referendum on the same day as a General Election
Aimed to ‘square off’ threat from Reform and @Nigel_Farage
Could help bring in Reform voters, but alternatively could look so cynical and desperate that it gets everyone out to the polling stations to say fuck off. I’m not sure the average Reform voter cares that specifically about ECHR either. They might vote for withdrawal when asked but is that enough to switch their party vote?
56% to 32% in the latest polling, the UK electorate think Brexit was a mistake. An ECHR referendum, or Brexit 2 Brex Harder, would be a massive dud.
No it wouldn’t. Not if it persuaded many of those 32% to vote Tory. That would save the party from possible extinction
The Tories are at the edge of the abyss. Some polls put them under 20%. That’s absolute wipe out territory - from which they might never recover
The ECHR idea is a mad gamble but that’s what they need now. A mad gamble. They have nothing to lose, it cannot get worse
Put like that, it's not a gamble, sure.
But "it cannot get worse" feels like a brave statement, if I might be so bold.
I don’t think calling a referendum is gonna take the Tory vote DOWN from 18% or whatever. These last 18% are surely the diehards. The brexiteering pensioners and a few poshos worried about tax or woke or private school fees
But it MIGHT steal 5% from reform and mean the difference between actual death or a savage beating
They should do it, if they can. But I doubt they can practically force it through
So they can 'own the libs' by delaying the GE until January. Is that what I'm hearing. Well that's fine if you don't have a problem with Ed Davey becoming Leader of the Opposition.
The latest wheeze is actually quite fun.
EXC: Tory MPs propose ‘Super Thursday’ plan - holding an ECHR Referendum on the same day as a General Election
Aimed to ‘square off’ threat from Reform and @Nigel_Farage
Could help bring in Reform voters, but alternatively could look so cynical and desperate that it gets everyone out to the polling stations to say fuck off. I’m not sure the average Reform voter cares that specifically about ECHR either. They might vote for withdrawal when asked but is that enough to switch their party vote?
56% to 32% in the latest polling, the UK electorate think Brexit was a mistake. An ECHR referendum, or Brexit 2 Brex Harder, would be a massive dud.
No it wouldn’t. Not if it persuaded many of those 32% to vote Tory. That would save the party from possible extinction
The Tories are at the edge of the abyss. Some polls put them under 20%. That’s absolute wipe out territory - from which they might never recover
The ECHR idea is a mad gamble but that’s what they need now. A mad gamble. They have nothing to lose, it cannot get worse
Put like that, it's not a gamble, sure.
But "it cannot get worse" feels like a brave statement, if I might be so bold.
Indeed. It's true they probably need a huge gamble, but that comes with its own risks.
The other problem they have (ok, one of them), is that they are so obviously in a dire situation that any bold game will immediately look like a desperate gamble.
So trying to present as steady as she goes looks delusional, whereas trying to look bold looks desperate. Tough job.
Of the following huge gambles, which is most likely to work?
1. ECHR referendum 2. Bring back Johnson 3. Bring back Truss 4. Declare war on Venezuela 5. Sunak to fornicate with a dead pig on live television
Does election have to be Thursday by law? What would a government to do to be allowed choose any day of a week?
Or even two days, like Saturday and Sunday with results counted Sunday nights and through next day? Saturday Sunday election is more sensible than Thursdays, no?
No it is not a requirement elections be on a Thursday, it's a convention. One of the last pointless diversions before the passing of the Early Parliamentary General Election Act in 2019 was an amendment to have the election be on the Tuesday rather than Thursday. I believe historically voting used to be more spread out, and have been on other days within the last century.
I know there's an argument weekend voting is more sensible, but I'm not sure why that would be the case particularly, especially with postal voting so widely available for those for whom Thursdays would be tricky.
Thursdays have some advantages - the result is known by the end of Friday and then everyone can settle down for the weekend.
So they can 'own the libs' by delaying the GE until January. Is that what I'm hearing. Well that's fine if you don't have a problem with Ed Davey becoming Leader of the Opposition.
The latest wheeze is actually quite fun.
EXC: Tory MPs propose ‘Super Thursday’ plan - holding an ECHR Referendum on the same day as a General Election
Aimed to ‘square off’ threat from Reform and @Nigel_Farage
Could help bring in Reform voters, but alternatively could look so cynical and desperate that it gets everyone out to the polling stations to say fuck off. I’m not sure the average Reform voter cares that specifically about ECHR either. They might vote for withdrawal when asked but is that enough to switch their party vote?
56% to 32% in the latest polling, the UK electorate think Brexit was a mistake. An ECHR referendum, or Brexit 2 Brex Harder, would be a massive dud.
No it wouldn’t. Not if it persuaded many of those 32% to vote Tory. That would save the party from possible extinction
The Tories are at the edge of the abyss. Some polls put them under 20%. That’s absolute wipe out territory - from which they might never recover
The ECHR idea is a mad gamble but that’s what they need now. A mad gamble. They have nothing to lose, it cannot get worse
Put like that, it's not a gamble, sure.
But "it cannot get worse" feels like a brave statement, if I might be so bold.
Indeed. It's true they probably need a huge gamble, but that comes with its own risks.
The other problem they have (ok, one of them), is that they are so obviously in a dire situation that any bold game will immediately look like a desperate gamble.
So trying to present as steady as she goes looks delusional, whereas trying to look bold looks desperate. Tough job.
Of the following huge gambles, which is most likely to work?
1. ECHR referendum 2. Bring back Johnson 3. Bring back Truss 4. Declare war on Venezuela 5. Sunak to fornicate with a dead pig on live television
So they can 'own the libs' by delaying the GE until January. Is that what I'm hearing. Well that's fine if you don't have a problem with Ed Davey becoming Leader of the Opposition.
The latest wheeze is actually quite fun.
EXC: Tory MPs propose ‘Super Thursday’ plan - holding an ECHR Referendum on the same day as a General Election
Aimed to ‘square off’ threat from Reform and @Nigel_Farage
Could help bring in Reform voters, but alternatively could look so cynical and desperate that it gets everyone out to the polling stations to say fuck off. I’m not sure the average Reform voter cares that specifically about ECHR either. They might vote for withdrawal when asked but is that enough to switch their party vote?
56% to 32% in the latest polling, the UK electorate think Brexit was a mistake. An ECHR referendum, or Brexit 2 Brex Harder, would be a massive dud.
No it wouldn’t. Not if it persuaded many of those 32% to vote Tory. That would save the party from possible extinction
The Tories are at the edge of the abyss. Some polls put them under 20%. That’s absolute wipe out territory - from which they might never recover
The ECHR idea is a mad gamble but that’s what they need now. A mad gamble. They have nothing to lose, it cannot get worse
Put like that, it's not a gamble, sure.
But "it cannot get worse" feels like a brave statement, if I might be so bold.
Indeed, my whole hypothesis is based on sticking two fingers to the “can’t be any worse” lazy opinion being posted on here.
It can get a lot worse in that in the coming months, the things that happen to the government make voters still soft towards voting Tory again like last time at the moment can be won back, can harden the other way against voting for conservatives, and stay abstaining don’t knows or with Labour and Reform. In other words, all the polling gap closing with swingback during campaign month absolutely everyone on all sides is naturally expecting, actually doesn’t happen because the campaign gets held against a storm of policy failures.
So the idea of “can’t be worse” so can’t lose anything with delay is just not true, the most important thing of all can be lost by getting the timing of the campaign month wrong, when it was so easy to work it all out by forecasting models.
THIS is an absolutely magnificent history book which I reckon many PBers will enjoy
Bolívar by Marie Arana
Obvs it’s the story of Simon Bolívar but it’s also the story of how independent South America was born. Absolutely incredible. Packed with juicy anecdotes, personal and geopolitical. It explains why this part of the world is as it is and how it could easily have been different
Also, chauvinistically, I had no idea how important Britain was in this story. At one point Bolivar nearly established an independent United States of South America - from Panama to Peru - which would have been a protectorate of the British empire
Have you read/listened to "The Open Veins of Latin America" by Galeano?
It's a great overview and gives a lot of insight into the post independence history of the continent and its problems.
I haven’t. I shall investigate - Gracias
Colombia is all kinds of messed up but the history is brilliantly vivid. I can’t get enough of it
Have you checked out the Gold Museum in Bogota yet?
I haven’t. Should I?
I might have one day in Bogota at the end of this trip next week
Yes, you must. One of the finest museums in the world. Says...the world.
Since many of them in their Scotch manifestations have bellowed incessantly about the waste of money of road signs in a dead language for the last few years that would make them look a tad hypocritical. Not that that would stop them.
And the shortlist in the Hound group is….the Basenji, the Grand Basset, the petit Basset Griffon, the Miniature smooth and standard wire dachshunds, greyhound, the pharaoh, and Rhodesian ridgeback.
And the winner is….the Grand Basset. Runner up the Basenji
I don't think the Rwanda stuff matters any more, whatever happens. Everybody's bored rigid with it, even those in favour. So even if a few flights take off, I don't expect it to shift the dial. It's a sign of Sunak's hopelessness that he's invested so heavily in it.
The purpose of Rwanda was to be seen to have a muscular "plan" for illegal immigration and to allow them to taunt those opposed to the idea with "what would you do?" £200 million to an African despot with a carefully crafted PR image was an acceptable price for that narrative and political advantage. It worked as intended, as we saw from comments by some on this board.
Rwanda was never meant to solve anything, which suggests those proposing it weren't serious about implementation. But somehow the Sunak government ended up fully invested. A smarter politician would have quietly let the proposal lapse once the political goodness had been extracted from it. Rwanda is now just an albatross.
The problem is, as someone pointed out in a different context recently, accusation is confession. All the Tory taunting of Labour for not having an alternative plan to Rwanda, also showed that they didn't have an alternative plan to Rwanda. So how were they ever going to move on from it to some other way of dealing with the issue?
So they can 'own the libs' by delaying the GE until January. Is that what I'm hearing. Well that's fine if you don't have a problem with Ed Davey becoming Leader of the Opposition.
The latest wheeze is actually quite fun.
EXC: Tory MPs propose ‘Super Thursday’ plan - holding an ECHR Referendum on the same day as a General Election
Aimed to ‘square off’ threat from Reform and @Nigel_Farage
Could help bring in Reform voters, but alternatively could look so cynical and desperate that it gets everyone out to the polling stations to say fuck off. I’m not sure the average Reform voter cares that specifically about ECHR either. They might vote for withdrawal when asked but is that enough to switch their party vote?
56% to 32% in the latest polling, the UK electorate think Brexit was a mistake. An ECHR referendum, or Brexit 2 Brex Harder, would be a massive dud.
No it wouldn’t. Not if it persuaded many of those 32% to vote Tory. That would save the party from possible extinction
The Tories are at the edge of the abyss. Some polls put them under 20%. That’s absolute wipe out territory - from which they might never recover
The ECHR idea is a mad gamble but that’s what they need now. A mad gamble. They have nothing to lose, it cannot get worse
Put like that, it's not a gamble, sure.
But "it cannot get worse" feels like a brave statement, if I might be so bold.
Indeed. It's true they probably need a huge gamble, but that comes with its own risks.
The other problem they have (ok, one of them), is that they are so obviously in a dire situation that any bold game will immediately look like a desperate gamble.
So trying to present as steady as she goes looks delusional, whereas trying to look bold looks desperate. Tough job.
Of the following huge gambles, which is most likely to work?
1. ECHR referendum 2. Bring back Johnson 3. Bring back Truss 4. Declare war on Venezuela 5. Sunak to fornicate with a dead pig on live television
I suspect (4) or (5).
The ECHR one is too much of a Tory niche subject. People don't like being told foreign judges or whatever are overruling things, but anything with human rights in it sounds nice, and any downsides are not so common as to do more than appeal to one faction.
Boris might have worked a bit, but he's deliberately taken himself out of the game, so that's out.
Declaring war I don't think works anymore.
As for 5, it probably wouldn't make him any more unpopular, but that speaks more to the current doldrums.
Since many of them in their Scotch manifestations have bellowed incessantly about the waste of money of road signs in a dead language for the last few years that would make them look a tad hypocritical. Not that that would stop them.
Well here’s one English right winger that would HATE to see the disappearance of Scottish Gaelic
Whenever I (rarely) hear it in Scotland it’s spine tingling. A vision of the distant past somehow come to life
I’ve heard it a few times mainly in Skye or the outer Hebrides. The best was a tiny Kirk in Harris where they did that incredible a Capella line singing - all these old ladies nasally ululating. One of the most foreign and exotic things I’ve ever encountered - and it was in the UK!
"Two arrested in Hull funeral directors investigation"
"A man of 46 and woman of 23 were arrested on suspicion of prevention of a lawful and decent burial, fraud by false representation and fraud by abuse of position, Humberside Police said."
So they can 'own the libs' by delaying the GE until January. Is that what I'm hearing. Well that's fine if you don't have a problem with Ed Davey becoming Leader of the Opposition.
The latest wheeze is actually quite fun.
EXC: Tory MPs propose ‘Super Thursday’ plan - holding an ECHR Referendum on the same day as a General Election
Aimed to ‘square off’ threat from Reform and @Nigel_Farage
Could help bring in Reform voters, but alternatively could look so cynical and desperate that it gets everyone out to the polling stations to say fuck off. I’m not sure the average Reform voter cares that specifically about ECHR either. They might vote for withdrawal when asked but is that enough to switch their party vote?
56% to 32% in the latest polling, the UK electorate think Brexit was a mistake. An ECHR referendum, or Brexit 2 Brex Harder, would be a massive dud.
No it wouldn’t. Not if it persuaded many of those 32% to vote Tory. That would save the party from possible extinction
The Tories are at the edge of the abyss. Some polls put them under 20%. That’s absolute wipe out territory - from which they might never recover
The ECHR idea is a mad gamble but that’s what they need now. A mad gamble. They have nothing to lose, it cannot get worse
Another mad gamble? The problem the Tories have is that it is a series of mad gambles that have go them into this mess. The truth is that once you lose your reputation for probity and competence, the general level of scepticism rises to the point that every single one of your actions is questioned. Now the Tories have burned the Conservative brand to the point that the electorate is sick of the endless drama and constant instability.
So here we are, sick of the Tories but lumbered with them for much of the next year. By the end of it, it won´t be so much an electoral defeat, as series of punishment beatings.
Given how utterly godawful the next few months of splits and windbaggery is likely to be, it will seem like justifiable homicide to put the Tories out of our misery when the glorious election day finally dawns.
Comments
EXC: Tory MPs propose ‘Super Thursday’ plan - holding an ECHR Referendum on the same day as a General Election
Aimed to ‘square off’ threat from Reform and @Nigel_Farage
https://x.com/avmikhailova/status/1766821828067045450?s=46
Could help bring in Reform voters, but alternatively could look so cynical and desperate that it gets everyone out to the polling stations to say fuck off. I’m not sure the average Reform voter cares that specifically about ECHR either. They might vote for withdrawal when asked but is that enough to switch their party vote?
It's a sign of Sunak's hopelessness that he's invested so heavily in it.
@PolitlcsUK
🚨 NEW: Senior Tories are planning to oust Rishi Sunak as PM after a meeting of more than 50 Tory MP and peers
https://twitter.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1766866482292490675
Tells you everything about how much shit punters believe they are in.
A referendum on whether to abolish the Tory Party, however, would be easy to understand and would generate a high turnout at the moment. Go for it.
Shame nobody has asked Johnson if he has agreed, and they are part of a tribal minority who do not have the votes to win a vonc v Sunak
Hopefully the next GE will deliver the result that consign them to the relevance of the Monster Raving Loony Party, indeed they could take it over
I’m actually surprised this isn’t mentioned in the book
Though it’s one of those topics that if it did get focus would probably help to convince people it’s not such a good idea to leave.
It's a great overview and gives a lot of insight into the post independence history of the continent and its problems.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ed0UgcXZCh8
It’s a pretty major lacuna in an otherwise magisterial book. You read the London sections with a sense of mild disbelief that she doesn’t even mention this tangentially, whereas many writers would surely have given it a chapter by itself
Tsk
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/mar/10/fears-for-future-of-gaelic-language-as-community-workers-jobs-under-threat
"Steve Bannon, the one-time adviser to Donald Trump, suggested on Saturday that the former president was paid off after a shift in stance on TikTok.
TikTok, the immensely popular video-sharing app known for its predominantly young audience, has once again come under scrutiny from U.S. lawmakers. The app is currently owned by Chinese tech company, ByteDance, which has spurred significant suspicion that its abundance of user data is being furnished to the Chinese government."
source: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/steve-bannon-suggests-donald-trump-has-been-bought/ar-BB1jE1gh?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=fa9ec3aa04db48449f3621948bc4dad5&ei=89
(Cross posted at Patterico's.)
Colombia is all kinds of messed up but the history is brilliantly vivid. I can’t get enough of it
Right of centre don’t knows rejoining the game?
Maybe we have underestimated just how much of a turn off Labour still are to so many voters. Personally speaking they are a turn off for me, just four years ago they were a Marxist Leninist party with a communist manifesto and a vile antisemitic leader in love with the Kremlin and a friend to British hating terrorists the world over, and the current Labour leader and deputy acting big wigs in that politburo campaigning to install Corbyn as our PM. When Starmer says “we’ve changed” does he mean he’s changed his own views? The left and union Barons are suspiciously quiet, is the truth.
When voting comes, Labour supporters may be surprised by how suspicious many voters still are about Labour.
https://www.kobo.com/gb/en/ebook/revolutionary-partners
In the process they've (one way or another) been alienating, deceiving, disappointing, etc., etc., AND warning approx. 95% of voters (at least 19 times out of 20) NOT to believe anything they say about Europe. Among other things.
Zen the Jack Russell from Japan is wowing the crowd
And the category winner is….. the Jack Russell! Huge applause. Irish Terrier from Sweden is the runner up
“British travelers in the service of Spain now noted a marked change in Caracas. Spaniards were being dragged to the dungeons, made to surrender their wealth to patriot coffers. The unwilling were taken to the marketplace and shot. Not outright, but limb by limb, so that onlookers could watch them wriggle as musicians struck up lively airs. These spectacles caused such merriment that the multitude, provoked to an obscene frenzy, would finally cry, “Kill him!” and the executioner would end the victim’s suffering with a final bullet to the brain. A Spaniard in agony had become a source of amusement, a ready carousel of laughs.
Outside Caracas patriots hardly fared better. The “Legions of Hell”—hordes of wild and truculent plainsmen—rode out of the barren llanos to punish anyone who dared call himself a rebel. Leading these colored troops was the fearsome José Tomás Boves. A Spanish sailor from Asturias, Boves had been arrested at sea for smuggling, sent to the dungeons of Puerto Cabello, then exiled to the Venezuelan prairie, where he fell in with marauding cowboys. He was fair-haired, strong-shouldered, with an enormous head, piercing blue eyes, and a pronounced sadistic streak. Loved by his feral cohort with a passion verging on worship, he led them to unimaginable violence. As Bolívar’s aide Daniel O’Leary later wrote, “Of all the monsters produced by the revolution . . . Boves was the worst.” He was a barbarian of epic proportions, an Attila for the Americas. Recruited by Monteverde but beholden to no one, Boves raised a formidable army of black, pardo, and mestizo llaneros by promising them open plunder, rich booty, and a chance to exterminate the Creole class.
The llaneros were accomplished horsemen, well trained in the art of warfare. They needed few worldly goods, rode bareback, covered their nakedness with loincloths. They consumed only meat, which they strapped to their horses’ flanks and cured by the sweat of the racing animals. They made tents from hides, slept on earth, reveled in hardship. They lived on the open prairie, which was parched by heat, impassable in the rains. Their weapon of choice was a long lance of alvarico palm, hardened to a sharp point in the campfire. They were accustomed to making rapid raids, swimming on horseback through rampant floods, the sum of their earthly possessions in leather pouches balanced on their heads or clenched between their teeth. They could ride at a gallop, like the armies of Genghis Khan, dangling from the side of a horse, so that their bodies were rendered invisible, untouchable, their killing lances straight and sure against a baffled enemy.”
I might have one day in Bogota at the end of this trip next week
Daniel Sugarman
@Daniel_Sugarman
After many years, a Holocaust Museum has finally opened in Amsterdam today.
This is currently going on outside.
https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/1766806158856052747
And fact that a mega-MAGA-skunk like Steve Bannon can discern the odor despite his own reeking stench, speaks volumes.
One of which is, apparently, he is NOT getting cut in on this deal.
AND may also indicate, that as far as 2024 election is concerned, Steve Bannon may be the Jame Carvelle of 1996?
That is, a nothingburger.
The New York Times has been forced in court to admit its hallowed “bestseller list” is complete bollocks. It is not based on objective sales data, it is a list of books the editors prefer. So they exclude conservative books
Extraordinary admission
https://x.com/balajis/status/1766189290869121163?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
And the landscapes are so epic
Damn shame so much of it is sketchy and violent. Also they’ve gotta work on the food. They’ve sorted out the wine with Argentinian Malbec and Chilean cab sauv but their food game is lame
Otherwise: fabulous
Although the mere existence of a VONC and wall to wall news of infighting and split party at war and more interested in jaw jaw about itself, would itself stop swingback and prevent a general election in rest of May and June, it’s not at all part of my calculation for a spring rather than autumn/winter election saving more seats.
During summer, interim covid report comes out and boat crossing surge will be much of the news narrative (as well as Taylor Swift who will dominate UK front pages for months) away from that eyes of us political nerdy people will be on economic and financial gages and dials to see if upticks can change Tory polling.
Rwanda was never meant to solve anything, which suggests those proposing it weren't serious about implementation. But somehow the Sunak government ended up fully invested. A smarter politician would have quietly let the proposal lapse once the political goodness had been extracted from it. Rwanda is now just an albatross.
The Tories are at the edge of the abyss. Some polls put them under 20%. That’s absolute wipe out territory - from which they might never recover
The ECHR idea is a mad gamble but that’s what they need now. A mad gamble. They have nothing to lose, it cannot get worse
But I am highly dubious they can force through the legislation required. This wasn’t in the manifesto so the lords can surely scupper it?
ECHR isn't really a EU issue in any sense.
I have lost count of how many times I have heard angsty Labour people tell me that Sir Keir Starmer’s huge advantage in the opinion polls is bound to shrivel. “The polls will tighten” is the mantra also to be heard from Tory people. It is the result of their yearning to find a reason to be cheerful accompanied by sheer disbelief that Labour can really be so far ahead.
If anything, the Conservative outlook has not brightened with the passing of time, it has grown more occluded as they have clattered closer to the buffers.
I have been immune to the recent outbreak at Westminster of spring election fever. So long as they have road left to run, prime ministers do not willingly submit to a contest when they are being told that they will be crushed by the challenger. Another reason for my scepticism about a spring election is that Mr Sunak, who assumed office on 25 October 2022, has been at Number 10 for just 16 months. He will at least be able to claim he had two years as prime minister if he can make it to November.
“This had better work, because nothing else is,” one senior Tory remarked to me shortly before the chancellor got to his feet – only to disappoint those in his party looking for a miracle. It was foolish for them to invest big expectations in this budget because that required the chancellor to be a magician (which he isn’t) with lots of cash to splash (which he hasn’t). Analysts are almost universally agreed that Mr Hunt peddled fiscal fantasies based on fictions about future spending and taxation that will unravel once we have got to the other side of the election.
Far from voters being wowed, seduced or even mildly impressed, more than twice as many respondents rated it a bad budget as those who thought it good. One member of the cabinet, who is usually among its more upbeat members, sighed to me: “The electorate have basically decided that they’ve had enough of the Tories.”
Does election have to be Thursday by law? What would a government to do to be allowed choose any day of a week?
Or even two days, like Saturday and Sunday with results counted Sunday nights and through next day? Saturday Sunday election is more sensible than Thursdays, no?
Any VONC is career ending.
But "it cannot get worse" feels like a brave statement, if I might be so bold.
I suspect the next government will swallow the medicine on this
A Conservative pessimist says, 'things are so bad they cannot possibly get any worse.'
A conservative optimist says 'they will, they really will.'
The other problem they have (ok, one of them), is that they are so obviously in a dire situation that any bold game will immediately look like a desperate gamble.
So trying to present as steady as she goes looks delusional, whereas trying to look bold looks desperate. Tough job.
I also had a similar experience in Jerusalem where the guide finished his tour in a similar way - and in that instance he was being paid (not by me) ridiculously well.
But it MIGHT steal 5% from reform and mean the difference between actual death or a savage beating
They should do it, if they can. But I doubt they can practically force it through
1. ECHR referendum
2. Bring back Johnson
3. Bring back Truss
4. Declare war on Venezuela
5. Sunak to fornicate with a dead pig on live television
I suspect (4) or (5).
I know there's an argument weekend voting is more sensible, but I'm not sure why that would be the case particularly, especially with postal voting so widely available for those for whom Thursdays would be tricky.
Thursdays have some advantages - the result is known by the end of Friday and then everyone can settle down for the weekend.
I shan’t link. Hazelwood High School
No words. Bleak bleak bleak
It can get a lot worse in that in the coming months, the things that happen to the government make voters still soft towards voting Tory again like last time at the moment can be won back, can harden the other way against voting for conservatives, and stay abstaining don’t knows or with Labour and Reform. In other words, all the polling gap closing with swingback during campaign month absolutely everyone on all sides is naturally expecting, actually doesn’t happen because the campaign gets held against a storm of policy failures.
So the idea of “can’t be worse” so can’t lose anything with delay is just not true, the most important thing of all can be lost by getting the timing of the campaign month wrong, when it was so easy to work it all out by forecasting models.
And the winner is….the Grand Basset. Runner up the Basenji
Boris might have worked a bit, but he's deliberately taken himself out of the game, so that's out.
Declaring war I don't think works anymore.
As for 5, it probably wouldn't make him any more unpopular, but that speaks more to the current doldrums.
Whenever I (rarely) hear it in Scotland it’s spine tingling. A vision of the distant past somehow come to life
I’ve heard it a few times mainly in Skye or the outer Hebrides. The best was a tiny Kirk in Harris where they did that incredible a Capella line singing - all these old ladies nasally ululating. One of the most foreign and exotic things I’ve ever encountered - and it was in the UK!
Gaelic must be saved
"Two arrested in Hull funeral directors investigation"
"A man of 46 and woman of 23 were arrested on suspicion of prevention of a lawful and decent burial, fraud by false representation and fraud by abuse of position, Humberside Police said."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-68529604
So here we are, sick of the Tories but lumbered with them for much of the next year. By the end of it, it won´t be so much an electoral defeat, as series of punishment beatings.
Given how utterly godawful the next few months of splits and windbaggery is likely to be, it will seem like justifiable homicide to put the Tories out of our misery when the glorious election day finally dawns.