LLG vs Con/Ref - 58-36 so well in line with other polls.
Because this is Opinium, people are missing how bad this poll is for the Tories. Opinium tends to give higher shares for the Tories, because of their treatment of 2019 voters who now say don't know. 25% is the lowest Tory poll score since 25% in July 2023, and 23% at the time of the Truss nadir in October 2022.
It's another poll putting the Tories right at the bottom.
Opinium tweet puts the Labour share at 43% (n/c). In 2023 Opinium had Labour shares in the range 39-45.
Isn't the point he's making that if he takes spiritual and inspirational guidance from the Pope, which good Catholics are supposed to do, then this could bleed into policy?
Personally, I don't think it would, but it's not anti-Catholic bigotry to say so. There are plenty of pious followers who would.
In the past there’s been a lot of anti-Catholic bigotry aimed at Catholic presidential candidates, almost calling them fifth columnists.
It is a trend I thought had long gone until William revived it this evening.
Look on the bright side, a lot of those lads seemed to slipped seamlessy into hating on the Muslamics. Not to say that they don't have room in their wizened little hearts for both.
LLG vs Con/Ref - 58-36 so well in line with other polls.
Because this is Opinium, people are missing how bad this poll is for the Tories. Opinium tends to give higher shares for the Tories, because of their treatment of 2019 voters who now say don't know. 25% is the lowest Tory poll score since 25% in July 2023, and 23% at the time of the Truss nadir in October 2022.
It's another poll putting the Tories right at the bottom.
Opinium tweet puts the Labour share at 43% (n/c). In 2023 Opinium had Labour shares in the range 39-45.
I'm sure he feels very smug and satisfied telling victims they need to be superior like him, and accept surrender for peace.
I get it, sometimes people may have no choice but to stop fighting. But it isn't inherently moral to love 'peace' to the extent of effectively saying any fighting is bad. Sometimes fighting is the better option.
I'm assuming he's also calling on the Russians to seek peace, but that such statements aren't reported as they aren't deemed newsworthy.
Otherwise it would be another example of a tendency to appeal to the "good guys" to bend over backwards to accommodate the "bad guys", because there's no point asking the "bad guys" to do anything because everyone knows they won't listen. This seems like a really bad approach that only encourages bad behaviour.
No, you're all wrong on Mrs May and Brexit. The main issue wasn't her rhetoric or her mindset, it was the domestic politics of it. A soft Brexit meant SM which meant FOM. No Tory PM could have got that through the Brexit parliament and stayed PM. A Labour PM could but not a Tory one.
Why? Because a deal like that would have run counter to where the party's members and voters and a critical mass of their MPs were. It would have been VONC and out. She knew that. As would any other person in her place at that time in those circumstances.
Soft Brexit = Pipedream.
But also, soft Brexit loses if it's explicitly put to the public in 2016, because it means FOM. Where May ended up was "least economically damaging Brexit that stops FOM", which was probably a reasonable take on the main strand of what the 52% wanted.
But any real deal was bound to disappoint, because what the UK really wanted was for the EU to give us exactly what we wanted in exchange for the pleasure of our company. I'm sure there was a colourful metaphor involving post-divorce relationships.
How would people have voted if they’d known that immigration post-Brexit would be substantially higher?
If the Remain campaign had managed to convince people that a Leave vote would lead to higher immigration then it would have been a landslide for Remain.
But I can see why they didn't try that argument. They would have been ridiculed. I'm not sure how it has happened, particularly when we've had a decade, at least, of Conservative PMs pledged to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands.
This is a good question. How did it happen? How did a Conservative administration so explicitly desirous of lower immigration and having taken back control produce a situation with record high immigration?
Can I be the third to frank this - yes how *did* that happen?
Because Boris Johnson is the most liberal PM we've had. Certainly far more than Blair or Brown.
Yes but seriously.
There have been some suggestions that people are exploiting our openness towards foreign students. The BBC had an interesting report on this:
One influencer wey tell BBC say Nigerians dey sign up for degrees for UK just to get visa for themselves and dia dependents don apologise.
"We don begin to see say a lot of pipo just hide behind di studentship. So di student thing no dey real, no be like say dem need di degrees," Emdee Tiamiyu tok for di interview.
Di Office for National Statistics (ONS) tok say one significant factor behind di high migration numbers in recent years na increase in foreign students and dia dependants wey dey follow dem come.
One fifth of UK student visas last year go to Nigerians - 120,000 in total, wit half for di students themself and half for partners and children.
Nigerians get more family visas for foreign students than any oda nationality, ONS tok.
My place 100% isn't sending people out to Africa to try and recruit students to make up for falling SE Asian numbers.
Just to be clear.
In case anyone was wondering.
Perhaps if Universities had to pay a couple of grand per year per dependent to the state the moral hazard could be reduced and the incentives fixed. A state school place for a dependent child is about £8k.
Simpler - the university lodges the money for each year of the course with the government is an escrow account. In advance. So if the student suffers a location deficit, then the University is on the hook.
Some small acquaintance with academia suggests they will hunt missing students down with a particular… enthusiasm.
Isn't the point he's making that if he takes spiritual and inspirational guidance from the Pope, which good Catholics are supposed to do, then this could bleed into policy?
Personally, I don't think it would, but it's not anti-Catholic bigotry to say so. There are plenty of pious followers who would.
In the past there’s been a lot of anti-Catholic bigotry aimed at Catholic presidential candidates, almost calling them fifth columnists.
It is a trend I thought had long gone until William revived it this evening.
I think you're overegging it a tad.
Pope's have been forces for good influence and bad over the years.
Prominent Protestant spokesmen, led by Billy Graham and Norman Vincent Peale, organized Protestant ministers by warning that the pope would be giving orders to a Kennedy White House. Many established Evangelical groups were mobilized.
Two organizations took active roles, the National Conference of Citizens for Religious Freedom and Protestants and Other Americans United for Separation of Church and State.
Peale was blasted by the media for his anti-Catholicism and retreated, denying the facts of his organizing role. Graham pushed hard against Kennedy, keeping Nixon informed of his progress.
Not just the US. We have had homegrown PBers arguing that the Establishment of the C of E is vitally necessary to prevent Papal domination of British politics and culture (but also ignoring their favourite PM's affiliations).
The Gordon Riots don't seem so long ago sometimes.
Isn't the point he's making that if he takes spiritual and inspirational guidance from the Pope, which good Catholics are supposed to do, then this could bleed into policy?
Personally, I don't think it would, but it's not anti-Catholic bigotry to say so. There are plenty of pious followers who would.
In the past there’s been a lot of anti-Catholic bigotry aimed at Catholic presidential candidates, almost calling them fifth columnists.
It is a trend I thought had long gone until William revived it this evening.
I think you're overegging it a tad.
Pope's have been forces for good influence and bad over the years.
Prominent Protestant spokesmen, led by Billy Graham and Norman Vincent Peale, organized Protestant ministers by warning that the pope would be giving orders to a Kennedy White House. Many established Evangelical groups were mobilized.
Two organizations took active roles, the National Conference of Citizens for Religious Freedom and Protestants and Other Americans United for Separation of Church and State.
Peale was blasted by the media for his anti-Catholicism and retreated, denying the facts of his organizing role. Graham pushed hard against Kennedy, keeping Nixon informed of his progress.
Not just the US. We have had homegrown PBers arguing that the Establishment of the C of E is vitally necessary to prevent Papal domination of British politics and culture (but also ignoring their favourite PM's affiliations).
The Gordon Riots don't seem so long ago sometimes.
Isn't the point he's making that if he takes spiritual and inspirational guidance from the Pope, which good Catholics are supposed to do, then this could bleed into policy?
Personally, I don't think it would, but it's not anti-Catholic bigotry to say so. There are plenty of pious followers who would.
In the past there’s been a lot of anti-Catholic bigotry aimed at Catholic presidential candidates, almost calling them fifth columnists.
It is a trend I thought had long gone until William revived it this evening.
I think you're overegging it a tad.
Pope's have been forces for good influence and bad over the years.
Prominent Protestant spokesmen, led by Billy Graham and Norman Vincent Peale, organized Protestant ministers by warning that the pope would be giving orders to a Kennedy White House. Many established Evangelical groups were mobilized.
Two organizations took active roles, the National Conference of Citizens for Religious Freedom and Protestants and Other Americans United for Separation of Church and State.
Peale was blasted by the media for his anti-Catholicism and retreated, denying the facts of his organizing role. Graham pushed hard against Kennedy, keeping Nixon informed of his progress.
Not just the US. We have had homegrown PBers arguing that the Establishment of the C of E is vitally necessary to prevent Papal domination of British politics and culture (but also ignoring their favourite PM's affiliations).
The Gordon Riots don't seem so long ago sometimes.
Are the Gordon Riots the thing that happens on PB when anyone suggests PM Brown wasn't all bad?
If the Pope influenced Biden then Biden’s doing a bad job considering oh I don’t know Biden’s stance on abortion.
About 97% of Catholics think like this
- Pope wonderful - Abortion, contraception, gays etc can’t hear a word he is saying. - Pope wonderful
So you get people, like my wife, who go to Church every Sunday, love St Peter’s in Rome and think JP II is obviously a saint, who have never listened to a word of doctrine on social matters. And her family are fairly conservative Catholics in Peru.
The other 3% are Opus Dei types who think the Pope is a Lutheran heretic.
LLG vs Con/Ref - 58-36 so well in line with other polls.
Because this is Opinium, people are missing how bad this poll is for the Tories. Opinium tends to give higher shares for the Tories, because of their treatment of 2019 voters who now say don't know. 25% is the lowest Tory poll score since 25% in July 2023, and 23% at the time of the Truss nadir in October 2022.
It's another poll putting the Tories right at the bottom.
Opinium tweet puts the Labour share at 43% (n/c). In 2023 Opinium had Labour shares in the range 39-45.
No, definitely 41% (-1) but it matters little.
Ah. I see what I've done. Apart from posting and drinking wine at the same time. New poll isn't added to Wikipedia yet, and I've looked at one from February. So that's another 25% this poll is equal to, and the Labourer score is lower in the range of scores they've received from Opinium.
Isn't the point he's making that if he takes spiritual and inspirational guidance from the Pope, which good Catholics are supposed to do, then this could bleed into policy?
Personally, I don't think it would, but it's not anti-Catholic bigotry to say so. There are plenty of pious followers who would.
In the past there’s been a lot of anti-Catholic bigotry aimed at Catholic presidential candidates, almost calling them fifth columnists.
It is a trend I thought had long gone until William revived it this evening.
Look on the bright side, a lot of those lads seemed to slipped seamlessy into hating on the Muslamics. Not to say that they don't have room in their wizened little hearts for both.
OTOH I think of an Ulsterman colleague (I still don't know which side he was footed) who used to tell the joke of the chap from the ME who came to Belfast Aldergrove on business and took a taxi in.
Taximan: Oh, really? Are you a Protestant or a Catholic?
Businessman: Oh no, no, not at all - I'm a Muslim.
T: Yes, yes, but a Protestant Muslim or a Catholic Muslim?
I'm sure he feels very smug and satisfied telling victims they need to be superior like him, and accept surrender for peace.
I get it, sometimes people may have no choice but to stop fighting. But it isn't inherently moral to love 'peace' to the extent of effectively saying any fighting is bad. Sometimes fighting is the better option.
I'm assuming he's also calling on the Russians to seek peace, but that such statements aren't reported as they aren't deemed newsworthy.
Otherwise it would be another example of a tendency to appeal to the "good guys" to bend over backwards to accommodate the "bad guys", because there's no point asking the "bad guys" to do anything because everyone knows they won't listen. This seems like a really bad approach that only encourages bad behaviour.
It is that tendency that is at the heart of NetanyahuIan - “why should we play nice, if all we get is being asked to make all the concessions?”
Isn't the point he's making that if he takes spiritual and inspirational guidance from the Pope, which good Catholics are supposed to do, then this could bleed into policy?
Personally, I don't think it would, but it's not anti-Catholic bigotry to say so. There are plenty of pious followers who would.
In the past there’s been a lot of anti-Catholic bigotry aimed at Catholic presidential candidates, almost calling them fifth columnists.
It is a trend I thought had long gone until William revived it this evening.
I think you're overegging it a tad.
Pope's have been forces for good influence and bad over the years.
Prominent Protestant spokesmen, led by Billy Graham and Norman Vincent Peale, organized Protestant ministers by warning that the pope would be giving orders to a Kennedy White House. Many established Evangelical groups were mobilized.
Two organizations took active roles, the National Conference of Citizens for Religious Freedom and Protestants and Other Americans United for Separation of Church and State.
Peale was blasted by the media for his anti-Catholicism and retreated, denying the facts of his organizing role. Graham pushed hard against Kennedy, keeping Nixon informed of his progress.
Not just the US. We have had homegrown PBers arguing that the Establishment of the C of E is vitally necessary to prevent Papal domination of British politics and culture (but also ignoring their favourite PM's affiliations).
The Gordon Riots don't seem so long ago sometimes.
So who exactly will be the one to instigate the riots against the dangerous conspiracy of Catholic MPs Edward Leigh, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Rebecca Long Bailey and Bridget Phillipson to subvert the nation? Who will name the guilty men and women?
Isn't the point he's making that if he takes spiritual and inspirational guidance from the Pope, which good Catholics are supposed to do, then this could bleed into policy?
Personally, I don't think it would, but it's not anti-Catholic bigotry to say so. There are plenty of pious followers who would.
In the past there’s been a lot of anti-Catholic bigotry aimed at Catholic presidential candidates, almost calling them fifth columnists.
It is a trend I thought had long gone until William revived it this evening.
I think you're overegging it a tad.
Pope's have been forces for good influence and bad over the years.
Prominent Protestant spokesmen, led by Billy Graham and Norman Vincent Peale, organized Protestant ministers by warning that the pope would be giving orders to a Kennedy White House. Many established Evangelical groups were mobilized.
Two organizations took active roles, the National Conference of Citizens for Religious Freedom and Protestants and Other Americans United for Separation of Church and State.
Peale was blasted by the media for his anti-Catholicism and retreated, denying the facts of his organizing role. Graham pushed hard against Kennedy, keeping Nixon informed of his progress.
Not just the US. We have had homegrown PBers arguing that the Establishment of the C of E is vitally necessary to prevent Papal domination of British politics and culture (but also ignoring their favourite PM's affiliations).
The Gordon Riots don't seem so long ago sometimes.
Are the Gordon Riots the thing that happens on PB when anyone suggests PM Brown wasn't all bad?
Yes. And if Reform gets its way, the Duke of Wellington will observe that he’s never seen so many bad hats in the House of Commons.
Isn't the point he's making that if he takes spiritual and inspirational guidance from the Pope, which good Catholics are supposed to do, then this could bleed into policy?
Personally, I don't think it would, but it's not anti-Catholic bigotry to say so. There are plenty of pious followers who would.
In the past there’s been a lot of anti-Catholic bigotry aimed at Catholic presidential candidates, almost calling them fifth columnists.
It is a trend I thought had long gone until William revived it this evening.
Look on the bright side, a lot of those lads seemed to slipped seamlessy into hating on the Muslamics. Not to say that they don't have room in their wizened little hearts for both.
OTOH I think of an Ulsterman colleague (I still don't know which side he was footed) who used to tell the joke of the chap from the ME who came to Belfast Aldergrove on business and took a taxi in.
Taximan: Oh, really? Are you a Protestant or a Catholic?
Businessman: Oh no, no, not at all - I'm a Muslim.
T: Yes, yes, but a Protestant Muslim or a Catholic Muslim?
I'm sure he feels very smug and satisfied telling victims they need to be superior like him, and accept surrender for peace.
I get it, sometimes people may have no choice but to stop fighting. But it isn't inherently moral to love 'peace' to the extent of effectively saying any fighting is bad. Sometimes fighting is the better option.
My first instinct is that he must be on the payroll.
I'm sufficiently cynical about human nature for my first instinct that there are always enough people who don't even need to be on the payroll, especially if they can dress things up in some faux conception of 'peace'.
Isn't the point he's making that if he takes spiritual and inspirational guidance from the Pope, which good Catholics are supposed to do, then this could bleed into policy?
Personally, I don't think it would, but it's not anti-Catholic bigotry to say so. There are plenty of pious followers who would.
In the past there’s been a lot of anti-Catholic bigotry aimed at Catholic presidential candidates, almost calling them fifth columnists.
It is a trend I thought had long gone until William revived it this evening.
Look on the bright side, a lot of those lads seemed to slipped seamlessy into hating on the Muslamics. Not to say that they don't have room in their wizened little hearts for both.
OTOH I think of an Ulsterman colleague (I still don't know which side he was footed) who used to tell the joke of the chap from the ME who came to Belfast Aldergrove on business and took a taxi in.
Taximan: Oh, really? Are you a Protestant or a Catholic?
Businessman: Oh no, no, not at all - I'm a Muslim.
T: Yes, yes, but a Protestant Muslim or a Catholic Muslim?
If you draw VAR lines on it, is Rishi on the other side of Truss? If I look on the Rishi angle, where he appears in space, he seems off from very worst of Truss, but if you look from Truss across, some of the round blobs seem to be playing him on the wrong side.
The last time this set locals were fought, what were the opinion polls saying?
If you draw VAR lines on it, is Rishi on the other side of Truss? If I look on the Rishi angle, where he appears in space, he seems on the better side of the worst of Truss, but if you look from Truss across, some of the round blobs seem to be playing him on the wrong side.
The last time this set locals were fought, what were the opinion polls saying?
Isn't the point he's making that if he takes spiritual and inspirational guidance from the Pope, which good Catholics are supposed to do, then this could bleed into policy?
Personally, I don't think it would, but it's not anti-Catholic bigotry to say so. There are plenty of pious followers who would.
In the past there’s been a lot of anti-Catholic bigotry aimed at Catholic presidential candidates, almost calling them fifth columnists.
It is a trend I thought had long gone until William revived it this evening.
Look on the bright side, a lot of those lads seemed to slipped seamlessy into hating on the Muslamics. Not to say that they don't have room in their wizened little hearts for both.
OTOH I think of an Ulsterman colleague (I still don't know which side he was footed) who used to tell the joke of the chap from the ME who came to Belfast Aldergrove on business and took a taxi in.
Taximan: Oh, really? Are you a Protestant or a Catholic?
Businessman: Oh no, no, not at all - I'm a Muslim.
T: Yes, yes, but a Protestant Muslim or a Catholic Muslim?
Isn't the point he's making that if he takes spiritual and inspirational guidance from the Pope, which good Catholics are supposed to do, then this could bleed into policy?
Personally, I don't think it would, but it's not anti-Catholic bigotry to say so. There are plenty of pious followers who would.
In the past there’s been a lot of anti-Catholic bigotry aimed at Catholic presidential candidates, almost calling them fifth columnists.
It is a trend I thought had long gone until William revived it this evening.
Look on the bright side, a lot of those lads seemed to slipped seamlessy into hating on the Muslamics. Not to say that they don't have room in their wizened little hearts for both.
OTOH I think of an Ulsterman colleague (I still don't know which side he was footed) who used to tell the joke of the chap from the ME who came to Belfast Aldergrove on business and took a taxi in.
Taximan: Oh, really? Are you a Protestant or a Catholic?
Businessman: Oh no, no, not at all - I'm a Muslim.
T: Yes, yes, but a Protestant Muslim or a Catholic Muslim?
For clarification, Casino Royale is NOT PBs leading Sophist - THAT dishonor belongs to another.
Thank you, I do try.
Your claims as "leading Sophist" are on a par with those of ex-Rep George Santos (R-Ponziland).
BTW (also FYI) GS has announced he's running AGAIN for Congress, in another Longggg Island district.
Would it be cynical to ask, what are odds of whatever campaign contributions he garners, being used to buy himself yet more sweaters (jumpers for UKers) for his klepto-politico wardrobe?
Also guessing this trajectory is Nieman Marcus > Nordstrom > Macys > Marshalls > Dollar General > Goodwill.
Isn't the point he's making that if he takes spiritual and inspirational guidance from the Pope, which good Catholics are supposed to do, then this could bleed into policy?
Personally, I don't think it would, but it's not anti-Catholic bigotry to say so. There are plenty of pious followers who would.
In the past there’s been a lot of anti-Catholic bigotry aimed at Catholic presidential candidates, almost calling them fifth columnists.
It is a trend I thought had long gone until William revived it this evening.
Look on the bright side, a lot of those lads seemed to slipped seamlessy into hating on the Muslamics. Not to say that they don't have room in their wizened little hearts for both.
OTOH I think of an Ulsterman colleague (I still don't know which side he was footed) who used to tell the joke of the chap from the ME who came to Belfast Aldergrove on business and took a taxi in.
Taximan: Oh, really? Are you a Protestant or a Catholic?
Businessman: Oh no, no, not at all - I'm a Muslim.
T: Yes, yes, but a Protestant Muslim or a Catholic Muslim?
Isn't the point he's making that if he takes spiritual and inspirational guidance from the Pope, which good Catholics are supposed to do, then this could bleed into policy?
Personally, I don't think it would, but it's not anti-Catholic bigotry to say so. There are plenty of pious followers who would.
In the past there’s been a lot of anti-Catholic bigotry aimed at Catholic presidential candidates, almost calling them fifth columnists.
It is a trend I thought had long gone until William revived it this evening.
Look on the bright side, a lot of those lads seemed to slipped seamlessy into hating on the Muslamics. Not to say that they don't have room in their wizened little hearts for both.
OTOH I think of an Ulsterman colleague (I still don't know which side he was footed) who used to tell the joke of the chap from the ME who came to Belfast Aldergrove on business and took a taxi in.
Taximan: Oh, really? Are you a Protestant or a Catholic?
Businessman: Oh no, no, not at all - I'm a Muslim.
T: Yes, yes, but a Protestant Muslim or a Catholic Muslim?
Shall I tell you about the Protestant Catholics?
In the RUC? That was one of your better posts.
PSNI
Made the peace process worthwhile, in my view.
Is this pronounced, "piss-knee"?
IF so, in the Shankill? The Falls? Six miles from Bangor OR Donaghadee, either way?
If you draw VAR lines on it, is Rishi on the other side of Truss? If I look on the Rishi angle, where he appears in space, he seems on the better side of the worst of Truss, but if you look from Truss across, some of the round blobs seem to be playing him on the wrong side.
The last time this set locals were fought, what were the opinion polls saying?
Last time was peak Boris Vaccine Bounce.
Hartlepool and all that.
The night Starmer nearly threw the towel in, and retired to his Donkey Sanctuary?
For clarification, Casino Royale is NOT PBs leading Sophist - THAT dishonor belongs to another.
Thank you, I do try.
Your claims as "leading Sophist" are on a par with those of ex-Rep George Santos (R-Ponziland).
BTW (also FYI) GS has announced he's running AGAIN for Congress, in another Longggg Island district.
Would it be cynical to ask, what are odds of whatever campaign contributions he garners, being used to buy himself yet more sweaters (jumpers for UKers) for his klepto-politico wardrobe?
Also guessing this trajectory is Nieman Marcus > Nordstrom > Macys > Marshalls > Dollar General > Goodwill.
Santos is a truly baffling character. He lied about so many inconsequential things it genuinely looks like he cannot help himself.
If Long Island voters put him back in they will deserve what they get. At least time they will know they are electing a bullshitter.
If you draw VAR lines on it, is Rishi on the other side of Truss? If I look on the Rishi angle, where he appears in space, he seems off from very worst of Truss, but if you look from Truss across, some of the round blobs seem to be playing him on the wrong side.
The last time this set locals were fought, what were the opinion polls saying?
I'm sure he feels very smug and satisfied telling victims they need to be superior like him, and accept surrender for peace.
I get it, sometimes people may have no choice but to stop fighting. But it isn't inherently moral to love 'peace' to the extent of effectively saying any fighting is bad. Sometimes fighting is the better option.
My first instinct is that he must be on the payroll.
I'm sufficiently cynical about human nature for my first instinct that there are always enough people who don't even need to be on the payroll, especially if they can dress things up in some faux conception of 'peace'.
I am very busy tomorrow so will not be able to comment but the morning thread contains possibly the greatest analogy in the history of PB, said analogy is absolutely not inflammatory, anyone who says otherwise will find themselves in exile on ConHome.
If you draw VAR lines on it, is Rishi on the other side of Truss? If I look on the Rishi angle, where he appears in space, he seems off from very worst of Truss, but if you look from Truss across, some of the round blobs seem to be playing him on the wrong side.
The last time this set locals were fought, what were the opinion polls saying?
36-29 NEV at the polls. Polling at the time was about 42-38.
No, you're all wrong on Mrs May and Brexit. The main issue wasn't her rhetoric or her mindset, it was the domestic politics of it. A soft Brexit meant SM which meant FOM. No Tory PM could have got that through the Brexit parliament and stayed PM. A Labour PM could but not a Tory one.
Why? Because a deal like that would have run counter to where the party's members and voters and a critical mass of their MPs were. It would have been VONC and out. She knew that. As would any other person in her place at that time in those circumstances.
Soft Brexit = Pipedream.
But also, soft Brexit loses if it's explicitly put to the public in 2016, because it means FOM. Where May ended up was "least economically damaging Brexit that stops FOM", which was probably a reasonable take on the main strand of what the 52% wanted.
But any real deal was bound to disappoint, because what the UK really wanted was for the EU to give us exactly what we wanted in exchange for the pleasure of our company. I'm sure there was a colourful metaphor involving post-divorce relationships.
How would people have voted if they’d known that immigration post-Brexit would be substantially higher?
If the Remain campaign had managed to convince people that a Leave vote would lead to higher immigration then it would have been a landslide for Remain.
But I can see why they didn't try that argument. They would have been ridiculed. I'm not sure how it has happened, particularly when we've had a decade, at least, of Conservative PMs pledged to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands.
It’s not particularly a failure of the government.
migration is up massively the world over. Climate change, famine, warfare, political disruption, the pull of economic opportunity, etc.
No western government has yet figured out how to manage it. It’s the big challenge of the next generation.
If you draw VAR lines on it, is Rishi on the other side of Truss? If I look on the Rishi angle, where he appears in space, he seems off from very worst of Truss, but if you look from Truss across, some of the round blobs seem to be playing him on the wrong side.
The last time this set locals were fought, what were the opinion polls saying?
If the Pope influenced Biden then Biden’s doing a bad job considering oh I don’t know Biden’s stance on abortion.
About 97% of Catholics think like this
- Pope wonderful - Abortion, contraception, gays etc can’t hear a word he is saying. - Pope wonderful
So you get people, like my wife, who go to Church every Sunday, love St Peter’s in Rome and think JP II is obviously a saint, who have never listened to a word of doctrine on social matters. And her family are fairly conservative Catholics in Peru.
The other 3% are Opus Dei types who think the Pope is a Lutheran heretic.
Spot on. My own sainted mother and your sensible wife on same page: devout Catholics for whom Christian ethics trumps Catholic dogma.
My estimate of what I call "crazed Catholics" is somewhat higher than yours, especially if you limit scope to, for example, actually attend mass more than once every leap year, let alone go to confession or take communion.
In USA maybe one third or thereabouts of Catholics meeting that threshold, are really as "traditional" as the Opus Dei types want 'em to be.
No, you're all wrong on Mrs May and Brexit. The main issue wasn't her rhetoric or her mindset, it was the domestic politics of it. A soft Brexit meant SM which meant FOM. No Tory PM could have got that through the Brexit parliament and stayed PM. A Labour PM could but not a Tory one.
Why? Because a deal like that would have run counter to where the party's members and voters and a critical mass of their MPs were. It would have been VONC and out. She knew that. As would any other person in her place at that time in those circumstances.
Soft Brexit = Pipedream.
But also, soft Brexit loses if it's explicitly put to the public in 2016, because it means FOM. Where May ended up was "least economically damaging Brexit that stops FOM", which was probably a reasonable take on the main strand of what the 52% wanted.
But any real deal was bound to disappoint, because what the UK really wanted was for the EU to give us exactly what we wanted in exchange for the pleasure of our company. I'm sure there was a colourful metaphor involving post-divorce relationships.
How would people have voted if they’d known that immigration post-Brexit would be substantially higher?
If the Remain campaign had managed to convince people that a Leave vote would lead to higher immigration then it would have been a landslide for Remain.
But I can see why they didn't try that argument. They would have been ridiculed. I'm not sure how it has happened, particularly when we've had a decade, at least, of Conservative PMs pledged to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands.
It’s not particularly a failure of the government.
migration is up massively the world over. Climate change, famine, warfare, political disruption, the pull of economic opportunity, etc.
No western government has yet figured out how to manage it. It’s the big challenge of the next generation.
It's a ridiculous position from Remainers. Non-EU immigration is determined separatelt from EU immigration. EU immigration is sharply down, and that was the only bit relevant to EU membership. If we had still been in the EU, immigration would have been substantially higher.
Isn't the point he's making that if he takes spiritual and inspirational guidance from the Pope, which good Catholics are supposed to do, then this could bleed into policy?
Personally, I don't think it would, but it's not anti-Catholic bigotry to say so. There are plenty of pious followers who would.
In the past there’s been a lot of anti-Catholic bigotry aimed at Catholic presidential candidates, almost calling them fifth columnists.
It is a trend I thought had long gone until William revived it this evening.
I think you're overegging it a tad.
Pope's have been forces for good influence and bad over the years.
Prominent Protestant spokesmen, led by Billy Graham and Norman Vincent Peale, organized Protestant ministers by warning that the pope would be giving orders to a Kennedy White House. Many established Evangelical groups were mobilized.
Two organizations took active roles, the National Conference of Citizens for Religious Freedom and Protestants and Other Americans United for Separation of Church and State.
Peale was blasted by the media for his anti-Catholicism and retreated, denying the facts of his organizing role. Graham pushed hard against Kennedy, keeping Nixon informed of his progress.
Not just the US. We have had homegrown PBers arguing that the Establishment of the C of E is vitally necessary to prevent Papal domination of British politics and culture (but also ignoring their favourite PM's affiliations).
The Gordon Riots don't seem so long ago sometimes.
Are the Gordon Riots the thing that happens on PB when anyone suggests PM Brown wasn't all bad?
Yes. And if Reform gets its way, the Duke of Wellington will observe that he’s never seen so many bad hats in the House of Commons.
If you draw VAR lines on it, is Rishi on the other side of Truss? If I look on the Rishi angle, where he appears in space, he seems off from very worst of Truss, but if you look from Truss across, some of the round blobs seem to be playing him on the wrong side.
The last time this set locals were fought, what were the opinion polls saying?
If you draw VAR lines on it, is Rishi on the other side of Truss? If I look on the Rishi angle, where he appears in space, he seems off from very worst of Truss, but if you look from Truss across, some of the round blobs seem to be playing him on the wrong side.
The last time this set locals were fought, what were the opinion polls saying?
If you draw VAR lines on it, is Rishi on the other side of Truss? If I look on the Rishi angle, where he appears in space, he seems off from very worst of Truss, but if you look from Truss across, some of the round blobs seem to be playing him on the wrong side.
The last time this set locals were fought, what were the opinion polls saying?
Thing is, all the reasons why May 2 probably leads to the best Conservative outcome still apply. It's not certain that things will get worse for the government from here, but it's much more likely than not.
Isn't the point he's making that if he takes spiritual and inspirational guidance from the Pope, which good Catholics are supposed to do, then this could bleed into policy?
Personally, I don't think it would, but it's not anti-Catholic bigotry to say so. There are plenty of pious followers who would.
In the past there’s been a lot of anti-Catholic bigotry aimed at Catholic presidential candidates, almost calling them fifth columnists.
It is a trend I thought had long gone until William revived it this evening.
Look on the bright side, a lot of those lads seemed to slipped seamlessy into hating on the Muslamics. Not to say that they don't have room in their wizened little hearts for both.
OTOH I think of an Ulsterman colleague (I still don't know which side he was footed) who used to tell the joke of the chap from the ME who came to Belfast Aldergrove on business and took a taxi in.
Taximan: Oh, really? Are you a Protestant or a Catholic?
Businessman: Oh no, no, not at all - I'm a Muslim.
T: Yes, yes, but a Protestant Muslim or a Catholic Muslim?
For clarification, Casino Royale is NOT PBs leading Sophist - THAT dishonor belongs to another.
Thank you, I do try.
Your claims as "leading Sophist" are on a par with those of ex-Rep George Santos (R-Ponziland).
BTW (also FYI) GS has announced he's running AGAIN for Congress, in another Longggg Island district.
Would it be cynical to ask, what are odds of whatever campaign contributions he garners, being used to buy himself yet more sweaters (jumpers for UKers) for his klepto-politico wardrobe?
Also guessing this trajectory is Nieman Marcus > Nordstrom > Macys > Marshalls > Dollar General > Goodwill.
Santos is a truly baffling character. He lied about so many inconsequential things it genuinely looks like he cannot help himself.
If Long Island voters put him back in they will deserve what they get. At least time they will know they are electing a bullshitter.
Planning a trip to Long Island in September. Hope to drive to Montauk one sunny day - the diametric opposite of Coney Island - and will look out for evidence of a Santos campaign. How about 'The truth sucks'? Surely that's a slogan we can all get behind, most days.
If you draw VAR lines on it, is Rishi on the other side of Truss? If I look on the Rishi angle, where he appears in space, he seems off from very worst of Truss, but if you look from Truss across, some of the round blobs seem to be playing him on the wrong side.
The last time this set locals were fought, what were the opinion polls saying?
‘If Boris came back for the General Election it could save as many as 80 MPs. It would give Conservatives hope, a reason to vote. If we go into an election and Boris is out in the cold, voters will simply stay at home and sit on their hands.’ https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1766516271577759971
I am very busy tomorrow so will not be able to comment but the morning thread contains possibly the greatest analogy in the history of PB, said analogy is absolutely not inflammatory, anyone who says otherwise will find themselves in exile on ConHome.
However inflammaTory, surely BigG meant NO harm, when recklessly opining, "both Sunak and Starmer are correct"?
If you draw VAR lines on it, is Rishi on the other side of Truss? If I look on the Rishi angle, where he appears in space, he seems off from very worst of Truss, but if you look from Truss across, some of the round blobs seem to be playing him on the wrong side.
The last time this set locals were fought, what were the opinion polls saying?
Thing is, all the reasons why May 2 probably leads to the best Conservative outcome still apply. It's not certain that things will get worse for the government from here, but it's much more likely than not.
PB Tories have now been given two days to get across the channel, before the police patrol come and puncture the boat.
Let’s listen in…
“We can’t go out there today, look at the state of the sea, we’ll never make half way.” “You are absolutely right. What’s the weather forecast for tomorrow?” “Much the same, could get a bit more up and down at times, or maybe a bit calmer later.” “Oh you know what forecasts are like - it really couldn’t be any worse than this. We’ll go tomorrow.”
That’s precisely the moment the God’s on Mount Olympus laugh, isn’t it?
For clarification, Casino Royale is NOT PBs leading Sophist - THAT dishonor belongs to another.
Thank you, I do try.
Your claims as "leading Sophist" are on a par with those of ex-Rep George Santos (R-Ponziland).
BTW (also FYI) GS has announced he's running AGAIN for Congress, in another Longggg Island district.
Would it be cynical to ask, what are odds of whatever campaign contributions he garners, being used to buy himself yet more sweaters (jumpers for UKers) for his klepto-politico wardrobe?
Also guessing this trajectory is Nieman Marcus > Nordstrom > Macys > Marshalls > Dollar General > Goodwill.
Santos is a truly baffling character. He lied about so many inconsequential things it genuinely looks like he cannot help himself.
If Long Island voters put him back in they will deserve what they get. At least time they will know they are electing a bullshitter.
Think Santos was planning on running in Republican primary, against Republican incumbent who was one of the Long Islanders who kept agitating for Santos's expulsion from US House.
My guess is that his alleged 2024 is (im)Pure Grift.
Professor Danny Blanchflower economist & fisherman @D_Blanchflower
How do old folk live on the uk pension? It is so low? 10000 quid a year….i get it but The full basic State Pension you can get is £203.85 per week is derisory ….how do people live? US social Security payment being made to 65-year-olds in 2024 is $1,505 or $18,060 per year. But more if you defer to taking payments at 70 maximum benefit would be $4,873/month
No, you're all wrong on Mrs May and Brexit. The main issue wasn't her rhetoric or her mindset, it was the domestic politics of it. A soft Brexit meant SM which meant FOM. No Tory PM could have got that through the Brexit parliament and stayed PM. A Labour PM could but not a Tory one.
Why? Because a deal like that would have run counter to where the party's members and voters and a critical mass of their MPs were. It would have been VONC and out. She knew that. As would any other person in her place at that time in those circumstances.
Soft Brexit = Pipedream.
But also, soft Brexit loses if it's explicitly put to the public in 2016, because it means FOM. Where May ended up was "least economically damaging Brexit that stops FOM", which was probably a reasonable take on the main strand of what the 52% wanted.
But any real deal was bound to disappoint, because what the UK really wanted was for the EU to give us exactly what we wanted in exchange for the pleasure of our company. I'm sure there was a colourful metaphor involving post-divorce relationships.
How would people have voted if they’d known that immigration post-Brexit would be substantially higher?
EU immigration is down it is non EU immigration up which is why Reform are now polling over 10%. Though the new higher salary threshold for migrants may change things
Professor Danny Blanchflower economist & fisherman @D_Blanchflower
How do old folk live on the uk pension? It is so low? 10000 quid a year….i get it but The full basic State Pension you can get is £203.85 per week is derisory ….how do people live? US social Security payment being made to 65-year-olds in 2024 is $1,505 or $18,060 per year. But more if you defer to taking payments at 70 maximum benefit would be $4,873/month
£800 a month when you own your own home and a lifetime of possessions is unpleasant, but doable. If you don’t and rely on extra benefits for the rent, it’s indeed precarious.
For clarification, Casino Royale is NOT PBs leading Sophist - THAT dishonor belongs to another.
Thank you, I do try.
Your claims as "leading Sophist" are on a par with those of ex-Rep George Santos (R-Ponziland).
BTW (also FYI) GS has announced he's running AGAIN for Congress, in another Longggg Island district.
Would it be cynical to ask, what are odds of whatever campaign contributions he garners, being used to buy himself yet more sweaters (jumpers for UKers) for his klepto-politico wardrobe?
Also guessing this trajectory is Nieman Marcus > Nordstrom > Macys > Marshalls > Dollar General > Goodwill.
Santos is a truly baffling character. He lied about so many inconsequential things it genuinely looks like he cannot help himself.
If Long Island voters put him back in they will deserve what they get. At least time they will know they are electing a bullshitter.
Planning a trip to Long Island in September. Hope to drive to Montauk one sunny day - the diametric opposite of Coney Island - and will look out for evidence of a Santos campaign. How about 'The truth sucks'? Surely that's a slogan we can all get behind, most days.
Have several models of Montauk Lighthouse in my model collection of lighthouse models.
Perhaps Santos will (ab)use this beloved local landmark for his 2024 campaign logo?
If you draw VAR lines on it, is Rishi on the other side of Truss? If I look on the Rishi angle, where he appears in space, he seems off from very worst of Truss, but if you look from Truss across, some of the round blobs seem to be playing him on the wrong side.
The last time this set locals were fought, what were the opinion polls saying?
No. I’m still totally convinced they will call it on Monday or Tuesday. At 10:38.
Election dates more scientific than having a budget and then putting a finger in the air.
Where they are in the polls right now has got absolutely nothing to do with the equation anyway. Nothing has changed in polling in last month, except a few more off Con onto Ref.
What decides it is not the low starting position before campaign, but ability to claw the DK and Ref back during the campaign. And in that sense nothing has changed in recent weeks - more chance of winning DK and Ref back in an April campaign than campaign during record summer and Autumn boat crossings.
Boat crossing losses Trump any marginal gains from economy.
If they see it just the same as I do, as I just described, the timing of a campaign on the ability to fight back, they will call the election early next week.
No, you're all wrong on Mrs May and Brexit. The main issue wasn't her rhetoric or her mindset, it was the domestic politics of it. A soft Brexit meant SM which meant FOM. No Tory PM could have got that through the Brexit parliament and stayed PM. A Labour PM could but not a Tory one.
Why? Because a deal like that would have run counter to where the party's members and voters and a critical mass of their MPs were. It would have been VONC and out. She knew that. As would any other person in her place at that time in those circumstances.
Soft Brexit = Pipedream.
But also, soft Brexit loses if it's explicitly put to the public in 2016, because it means FOM. Where May ended up was "least economically damaging Brexit that stops FOM", which was probably a reasonable take on the main strand of what the 52% wanted.
But any real deal was bound to disappoint, because what the UK really wanted was for the EU to give us exactly what we wanted in exchange for the pleasure of our company. I'm sure there was a colourful metaphor involving post-divorce relationships.
How would people have voted if they’d known that immigration post-Brexit would be substantially higher?
EU immigration is down it is non EU immigration up which is why Reform are now polling over 10%. Though the new higher salary threshold for migrants may change things
Is that the same Reform as the one that objected to Poles, Romanians and Lithuanians coming here and taking our jobs? You know, the jobs that Brits won’t do.
‘If Boris came back for the General Election it could save as many as 80 MPs. It would give Conservatives hope, a reason to vote. If we go into an election and Boris is out in the cold, voters will simply stay at home and sit on their hands.’ https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1766516271577759971
Well quite. Fair enough believing junking Boris was a mistake, but they both left by their own choice, they cannot complain about not being part of the game now, or put the blame of that on Sunak. If Boris had wanted he could still possibly be there now as an MP.
Heck, the Members would have voted for him over Sunak and he had the numbers to force a leadership vote, so it really is entirely his own choice.
Professor Danny Blanchflower economist & fisherman @D_Blanchflower
How do old folk live on the uk pension? It is so low? 10000 quid a year….i get it but The full basic State Pension you can get is £203.85 per week is derisory ….how do people live? US social Security payment being made to 65-year-olds in 2024 is $1,505 or $18,060 per year. But more if you defer to taking payments at 70 maximum benefit would be $4,873/month
You can defer in the UK too, and get a 10% uplift for every year. For those of us still working it makes good sense. I deferred until 70 and need to live to 80 to break even. It's a massive incentive to keep breathing.
Isn't the point he's making that if he takes spiritual and inspirational guidance from the Pope, which good Catholics are supposed to do, then this could bleed into policy?
Personally, I don't think it would, but it's not anti-Catholic bigotry to say so. There are plenty of pious followers who would.
In the past there’s been a lot of anti-Catholic bigotry aimed at Catholic presidential candidates, almost calling them fifth columnists.
It is a trend I thought had long gone until William revived it this evening.
I think you're overegging it a tad.
Pope's have been forces for good influence and bad over the years.
Prominent Protestant spokesmen, led by Billy Graham and Norman Vincent Peale, organized Protestant ministers by warning that the pope would be giving orders to a Kennedy White House. Many established Evangelical groups were mobilized.
Two organizations took active roles, the National Conference of Citizens for Religious Freedom and Protestants and Other Americans United for Separation of Church and State.
Peale was blasted by the media for his anti-Catholicism and retreated, denying the facts of his organizing role. Graham pushed hard against Kennedy, keeping Nixon informed of his progress.
Not just the US. We have had homegrown PBers arguing that the Establishment of the C of E is vitally necessary to prevent Papal domination of British politics and culture (but also ignoring their favourite PM's affiliations).
The Gordon Riots don't seem so long ago sometimes.
Welby has faults but he was in Ukraine only a few weeks ago to support them and their fight for freedom from Putin
Professor Danny Blanchflower economist & fisherman @D_Blanchflower
How do old folk live on the uk pension? It is so low? 10000 quid a year….i get it but The full basic State Pension you can get is £203.85 per week is derisory ….how do people live? US social Security payment being made to 65-year-olds in 2024 is $1,505 or $18,060 per year. But more if you defer to taking payments at 70 maximum benefit would be $4,873/month
£800 a month when you own your own home and a lifetime of possessions is unpleasant, but doable. If you don’t and rely on extra benefits for the rent, it’s indeed precarious.
Point of order - £888 per month but your point is well made
What counts as extremism requires judgement calls, it isn't possible to come up with a precise, universal definition, so all it would do give guidance to one partisan viewpoint of it. He may regret going down that route when a successor then updates it.
‘If Boris came back for the General Election it could save as many as 80 MPs. It would give Conservatives hope, a reason to vote. If we go into an election and Boris is out in the cold, voters will simply stay at home and sit on their hands.’ https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1766516271577759971
If the Pope influenced Biden then Biden’s doing a bad job considering oh I don’t know Biden’s stance on abortion.
About 97% of Catholics think like this
- Pope wonderful - Abortion, contraception, gays etc can’t hear a word he is saying. - Pope wonderful
So you get people, like my wife, who go to Church every Sunday, love St Peter’s in Rome and think JP II is obviously a saint, who have never listened to a word of doctrine on social matters. And her family are fairly conservative Catholics in Peru.
The other 3% are Opus Dei types who think the Pope is a Lutheran heretic.
Spot on. My own sainted mother and your sensible wife on same page: devout Catholics for whom Christian ethics trumps Catholic dogma.
My estimate of what I call "crazed Catholics" is somewhat higher than yours, especially if you limit scope to, for example, actually attend mass more than once every leap year, let alone go to confession or take communion.
In USA maybe one third or thereabouts of Catholics meeting that threshold, are really as "traditional" as the Opus Dei types want 'em to be.
And of course Irish Catholics have clearly voted today that a woman's place remains in the home and the traditional definition of the nuclear family remains. Just as the Vatican would want
Professor Danny Blanchflower economist & fisherman @D_Blanchflower
How do old folk live on the uk pension? It is so low? 10000 quid a year….i get it but The full basic State Pension you can get is £203.85 per week is derisory ….how do people live? US social Security payment being made to 65-year-olds in 2024 is $1,505 or $18,060 per year. But more if you defer to taking payments at 70 maximum benefit would be $4,873/month
When I was 20, 60 years ago, I knew the state pension would not be sufficient in retirement even then, so I, in common with many millions , invested in a private pension over decades
For clarification, Casino Royale is NOT PBs leading Sophist - THAT dishonor belongs to another.
Thank you, I do try.
Your claims as "leading Sophist" are on a par with those of ex-Rep George Santos (R-Ponziland).
BTW (also FYI) GS has announced he's running AGAIN for Congress, in another Longggg Island district.
Would it be cynical to ask, what are odds of whatever campaign contributions he garners, being used to buy himself yet more sweaters (jumpers for UKers) for his klepto-politico wardrobe?
Also guessing this trajectory is Nieman Marcus > Nordstrom > Macys > Marshalls > Dollar General > Goodwill.
Santos is a truly baffling character. He lied about so many inconsequential things it genuinely looks like he cannot help himself.
If Long Island voters put him back in they will deserve what they get. At least time they will know they are electing a bullshitter.
Planning a trip to Long Island in September. Hope to drive to Montauk one sunny day - the diametric opposite of Coney Island - and will look out for evidence of a Santos campaign. How about 'The truth sucks'? Surely that's a slogan we can all get behind, most days.
Have several models of Montauk Lighthouse in my model collection of lighthouse models.
Perhaps Santos will (ab)use this beloved local landmark for his 2024 campaign logo?
You can almost certainly name the state with the greatest number of lighthouses. Others are welcome to guess.
What counts as extremism requires judgement calls, it isn't possible to come up with a precise, universal definition, so all it would do give guidance to one partisan viewpoint of it. He may regret going down that route when a successor then updates it.
It's utter bullshit.
All the more absurd from a government on 20% in the polls, that's about to get an arseholing from the electorate.
Professor Danny Blanchflower economist & fisherman @D_Blanchflower
How do old folk live on the uk pension? It is so low? 10000 quid a year….i get it but The full basic State Pension you can get is £203.85 per week is derisory ….how do people live? US social Security payment being made to 65-year-olds in 2024 is $1,505 or $18,060 per year. But more if you defer to taking payments at 70 maximum benefit would be $4,873/month
When I was 20, 60 years ago, I knew the state pension would not be sufficient in retirement even then, so I, in common with many millions , invested in a private pension over decades
You would have thought that an economist who advised the Bank of England for years would know all about the uk pension system.
It looks as though things could be genuinely terminal for the Tories. So a huge responsibility rests on the shoulders of Sir Keir Starmer. He has not really impressed. As the old saying goes, where's the beef? Well it doesn't like like there'll be much new economic thinking with the better part of two decades past since Northern Rock went under. Most likely a bit more tax and a slight recovery in the public realm. Not clear that they have a feasible or acceptable migration policy.
Foreign policy may look a little better. The Labour party has been very solid on Ukraine, firmly pro Nato and Starmer clearly has little time for the peace at any price fools on the left. So far so New Labour. But where is the red meat for the base? From what we hear it looks as though it will be 'wokery.' A new race equality act and various measures to tackle inequality based on certain characteristics. Nevermind that the best way to challenge wildly divergent life outcomes would be a new economic policy, just like his New Labour forebears Starmer appears to believe that equality laws are more palatable to 'middle England'. I'm not so sure.
Worse still is the likely opposition or lack of it. Little to suggest that the Tories will be anything other than John Stuart Mill's stupid party. The Lib Dems barely registering a pulse and some loud Scot Nats causing a nuisance. Things aren't likely to get a whole lot better.
‘If Boris came back for the General Election it could save as many as 80 MPs. It would give Conservatives hope, a reason to vote. If we go into an election and Boris is out in the cold, voters will simply stay at home and sit on their hands.’ https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1766516271577759971
For clarification, Casino Royale is NOT PBs leading Sophist - THAT dishonor belongs to another.
Thank you, I do try.
Your claims as "leading Sophist" are on a par with those of ex-Rep George Santos (R-Ponziland).
BTW (also FYI) GS has announced he's running AGAIN for Congress, in another Longggg Island district.
Would it be cynical to ask, what are odds of whatever campaign contributions he garners, being used to buy himself yet more sweaters (jumpers for UKers) for his klepto-politico wardrobe?
Also guessing this trajectory is Nieman Marcus > Nordstrom > Macys > Marshalls > Dollar General > Goodwill.
Santos is a truly baffling character. He lied about so many inconsequential things it genuinely looks like he cannot help himself.
If Long Island voters put him back in they will deserve what they get. At least time they will know they are electing a bullshitter.
Planning a trip to Long Island in September. Hope to drive to Montauk one sunny day - the diametric opposite of Coney Island - and will look out for evidence of a Santos campaign. How about 'The truth sucks'? Surely that's a slogan we can all get behind, most days.
Have several models of Montauk Lighthouse in my model collection of lighthouse models.
Perhaps Santos will (ab)use this beloved local landmark for his 2024 campaign logo?
You can almost certainly name the state with the greatest number of lighthouses. Others are welcome to guess.
PB Tories have now been given two days to get across the channel, before the police patrol come and puncture the boat.
Let’s listen in…
“We can’t go out there today, look at the state of the sea, we’ll never make half way.” “You are absolutely right. What’s the weather forecast for tomorrow?” “Much the same, could get a bit more up and down at times, or maybe a bit calmer later.” “Oh you know what forecasts are like - it really couldn’t be any worse than this. We’ll go tomorrow.”
I have always been on the May 2nd train, but reading this post has now convinced me the election will be next January.
None of the arguments have changed, but I now realise the conversation in Richi's head is composed entirely from the script of Waiting for Godot...
For clarification, Casino Royale is NOT PBs leading Sophist - THAT dishonor belongs to another.
Thank you, I do try.
Your claims as "leading Sophist" are on a par with those of ex-Rep George Santos (R-Ponziland).
BTW (also FYI) GS has announced he's running AGAIN for Congress, in another Longggg Island district.
Would it be cynical to ask, what are odds of whatever campaign contributions he garners, being used to buy himself yet more sweaters (jumpers for UKers) for his klepto-politico wardrobe?
Also guessing this trajectory is Nieman Marcus > Nordstrom > Macys > Marshalls > Dollar General > Goodwill.
Santos is a truly baffling character. He lied about so many inconsequential things it genuinely looks like he cannot help himself.
If Long Island voters put him back in they will deserve what they get. At least time they will know they are electing a bullshitter.
Planning a trip to Long Island in September. Hope to drive to Montauk one sunny day - the diametric opposite of Coney Island - and will look out for evidence of a Santos campaign. How about 'The truth sucks'? Surely that's a slogan we can all get behind, most days.
Have several models of Montauk Lighthouse in my model collection of lighthouse models.
Perhaps Santos will (ab)use this beloved local landmark for his 2024 campaign logo?
You can almost certainly name the state with the greatest number of lighthouses. Others are welcome to guess.
Maine?
No.
Though Maineiacs WOULD have one more than they do now, except that Perfidious Albion seized and expropriated Machias Seal Island - then added insult to injury by turning it over to the tender mercies of savage Canucks!
‘If Boris came back for the General Election it could save as many as 80 MPs. It would give Conservatives hope, a reason to vote. If we go into an election and Boris is out in the cold, voters will simply stay at home and sit on their hands.’ https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1766516271577759971
What counts as extremism requires judgement calls, it isn't possible to come up with a precise, universal definition, so all it would do give guidance to one partisan viewpoint of it. He may regret going down that route when a successor then updates it.
It's utter bullshit.
All the more absurd from a government on 20% in the polls, that's about to get an arseholing from the electorate.
I don't think the word 'extremism' is very helpful. I think gross intolerance that may lead to hatred and violence would be a better idea for the Prevent programme.
But since we've had Islamists doing race quality training for the police perhaps it might be better to start with the basics.
For clarification, Casino Royale is NOT PBs leading Sophist - THAT dishonor belongs to another.
Thank you, I do try.
Your claims as "leading Sophist" are on a par with those of ex-Rep George Santos (R-Ponziland).
BTW (also FYI) GS has announced he's running AGAIN for Congress, in another Longggg Island district.
Would it be cynical to ask, what are odds of whatever campaign contributions he garners, being used to buy himself yet more sweaters (jumpers for UKers) for his klepto-politico wardrobe?
Also guessing this trajectory is Nieman Marcus > Nordstrom > Macys > Marshalls > Dollar General > Goodwill.
Santos is a truly baffling character. He lied about so many inconsequential things it genuinely looks like he cannot help himself.
If Long Island voters put him back in they will deserve what they get. At least time they will know they are electing a bullshitter.
Planning a trip to Long Island in September. Hope to drive to Montauk one sunny day - the diametric opposite of Coney Island - and will look out for evidence of a Santos campaign. How about 'The truth sucks'? Surely that's a slogan we can all get behind, most days.
Have several models of Montauk Lighthouse in my model collection of lighthouse models.
Perhaps Santos will (ab)use this beloved local landmark for his 2024 campaign logo?
You can almost certainly name the state with the greatest number of lighthouses. Others are welcome to guess.
Maine?
No.
Though Maineiacs WOULD have one more than they do now, except that Perfidious Albion seized and expropriated Machias Seal Island - then added insult to injury by turning it over to the tender mercies of savage Canucks!
If you draw VAR lines on it, is Rishi on the other side of Truss? If I look on the Rishi angle, where he appears in space, he seems off from very worst of Truss, but if you look from Truss across, some of the round blobs seem to be playing him on the wrong side.
The last time this set locals were fought, what were the opinion polls saying?
No. I’m still totally convinced they will call it on Monday or Tuesday. At 10:38.
Election dates more scientific than having a budget and then putting a finger in the air.
Where they are in the polls right now has got absolutely nothing to do with the equation anyway. Nothing has changed in polling in last month, except a few more off Con onto Ref.
What decides it is not the low starting position before campaign, but ability to claw the DK and Ref back during the campaign. And in that sense nothing has changed in recent weeks - more chance of winning DK and Ref back in an April campaign than campaign during record summer and Autumn boat crossings.
Boat crossing losses Trump any marginal gains from economy.
If they see it just the same as I do, as I just described, the timing of a campaign on the ability to fight back, they will call the election early next week.
No, you're all wrong on Mrs May and Brexit. The main issue wasn't her rhetoric or her mindset, it was the domestic politics of it. A soft Brexit meant SM which meant FOM. No Tory PM could have got that through the Brexit parliament and stayed PM. A Labour PM could but not a Tory one.
Why? Because a deal like that would have run counter to where the party's members and voters and a critical mass of their MPs were. It would have been VONC and out. She knew that. As would any other Tory politician in her place at that time in those circumstances.
Soft Brexit = Pipedream.
The point is she could have decoupled the two - done a quick, and soft Brexit to get out of the political structures and told the hardcore there would be plenty of room to revisit the economic ones (like the SM) after. There was a window of opportunity when Brexit was still undefined - and you could have set out a plan that sequenced it.
It was only later, and in part due to, May's speech that Brexit became that interminable conundrum where everyone could stymie each other by demanding the impossible, but never had the numbers to carry their preferred position.
Assuming that May's intention was to bring the UK out of the EU successfully, her issue was a deliberate policy of Hunt's (and we must assume May's, though the Treasury is an odd beast and can often defy the PM), not to provide the necessary resources to prepare the UK for the ramifications of leaving the EU without an FTA, or any agreement - the 'without a deal' scenario. Without those preparations in place, she was negotiating with zero credible threat of walking out. The eventual agreement was purely a case of how nice the EU wanted to be or not. This also ruined Johnson's negotiations. They tried to mutter and hint that a no deal scenario was possible, but it was bluff and the EU knew it.
'Necessary resources' or not it wasn't credible, because people don't vote to become poorer or go through national disasters. Blowing off your own foot isn't a credible threat whether or not you supply the bandages beforehand.
I you read your post through, you'll notice it's more emotional than logical. You dislike the idea of leaving the EU, so you have a tendency, as do so many like you, to talk about it in apocalyptical and really rather meaningless terms.
The UK is a global trading nation - in the vanishingly unlikely scenario that the EU would have deprived us of their exports (and foregone their extremely large divorce settlement, without which their finances would have gone south very quickly), we would have been completely fine. I also don't think there's any no deal preparation activity that would not also have proven useful in other ways, like making our borders more secure against illegal immigration. Not to prepare was an act of profound folly, and May deserved what happened to her premiership as an indirect result.
What complete idiotic rot, that doesn't understand the nature of what 'No Deal' meant. We have had a tiny taste of it in terms of the various frictions that have been prompted by the deal we got in the end - problems in North Ireland, businesses struggling, messes at the ports - which we did the prep for.
We are a global trading nation (as is the rest of the EU), but you can't completely change your trading model and infrastructure (not to mention geography), so quickly without significant turmoil. Which is what No Deal would have meant. The way we have done Brexit is a fraction of that, and has by and large turned more people against the idea in the abstract, even as we're stuck with it for the foreseeable.
We could have prepared for it. But the idea the treasury earmarking and then spending vast sums of money to build new port infrastructure, hiring an army of new public sector workers to cope with new competencies and duties, imposing an even larger amount of paperwork on firms than has been the case, would have been survivable for a government's popularity is for the birds. 'No New Money For The NHS, Prepare For A No Deal Brexit Instead' would have been hilarious to see a government try. That's not to mention what on Earth would have happened in NI if you suddenly put up a hard border.
As a country of course we'd have got through it - every one does. But it would have made the government trying it incredibly unpopular and possibly imperilled the whole Brexit project. Hence why it was just never credible. The EU never believed it even when it was being heavily talked up. And I think the only remotely rational people who truly believed in it as an option were smash it all up nihilists like Cummings who believed the pain (that they'd be insulated from) would be worthwhile shock therapy. And even they stepped away from the edge.
I'd say you are the one who defies logic by allowing a fanatical emotional attachment to an idea to cause a delusion that others share that attachment and imposing a shedload of new costs and difficulties on people, businesses, and government would be survivable for a government. Most people are in the middle. They were OK with Brexit after the referendum result, but not at a price that hugely inconvenienced them. Every credible assessment of No Deal states it would have done more than that.
It was 'talked up' a little by the British side at the end of the Bojo negotiations, when everyone and their wife knew that no preparation had been done. That's precisely why the EU didn't believe it. Well done for proving my point.
As to the rest, I think you have to be straight with people. And as I've said, I don't think that a huge project to strengthen our border infrastructure would have proven to be money ill-spent, especially given what followed, firstly Covid and then the realisation that the policing of our borders is a bad joke.
It doesn't prove your point at all. The fact it wasn't credible wasn't due to a lack of preparation - but because it was so evidently an act of self-harm. If you'd have announced in 2016 you were getting ready for it and spending the tens of billions of pounds necessary to ensure you could cope (we did actually spend several billion as it was on no deal contingencies as part of wider preparations), they'd have laughed, said "err OK if you really must" and planned for the easier landing their side.
You don't know what you are talking about, as evidenced by misinterpretation of border infrastructure. Which isn't so much about immigration but the flow of goods and people who are very much allowed to be here through. We've delayed checks on food so many times they still haven't been implemented. Built giant car parks for lorries (Dover is planning to reclaim land from the sea to expand) as have had problems with queues. Businesses have had an awful time with red tape - as even many staunch Brexiteers admit, while not blaming the grand idea itself.
That's with a deal that has been very much phased in by us not implementing things we've not been ready for. No Deal was that multiplied many times over. I don't think you have a clue about the immediate costs it would have taken to mitigate it.
The money wouldn't have been going on border police, but making sure the border operated as far as possible like before, despite having much more complex processes to undertake. It might have even made the bits people care about worse, as sprawling organisations with more to do don't tend to get more efficient at their individual competencies.
It's not even particularly about Brexit - good or bad. There's plenty of people who think Brexit is a good thing as longer term it decouples us from the European economically somewhat, but realised it was crackers from the start to think you can unwind 40 years of integration of supply chains, competencies, regulations, and policy overnight without imposing eyewatering costs on yourselves.
What counts as extremism requires judgement calls, it isn't possible to come up with a precise, universal definition, so all it would do give guidance to one partisan viewpoint of it. He may regret going down that route when a successor then updates it.
It's utter bullshit.
All the more absurd from a government on 20% in the polls, that's about to get an arseholing from the electorate.
I don't think the word 'extremism' is very helpful. I think gross intolerance that may lead to hatred and violence would be a better idea for the Prevent programme.
But since we've had Islamists doing race quality training for the police perhaps it might be better to start with the basics.
If you're going to attempt anything along those lines (though I think it misguided in any event), then some sort of consensus would seem to be essential. Gove has not even attempted to consult on the issue.
For clarification, Casino Royale is NOT PBs leading Sophist - THAT dishonor belongs to another.
Thank you, I do try.
Your claims as "leading Sophist" are on a par with those of ex-Rep George Santos (R-Ponziland).
BTW (also FYI) GS has announced he's running AGAIN for Congress, in another Longggg Island district.
Would it be cynical to ask, what are odds of whatever campaign contributions he garners, being used to buy himself yet more sweaters (jumpers for UKers) for his klepto-politico wardrobe?
Also guessing this trajectory is Nieman Marcus > Nordstrom > Macys > Marshalls > Dollar General > Goodwill.
Santos is a truly baffling character. He lied about so many inconsequential things it genuinely looks like he cannot help himself.
If Long Island voters put him back in they will deserve what they get. At least time they will know they are electing a bullshitter.
Planning a trip to Long Island in September. Hope to drive to Montauk one sunny day - the diametric opposite of Coney Island - and will look out for evidence of a Santos campaign. How about 'The truth sucks'? Surely that's a slogan we can all get behind, most days.
Have several models of Montauk Lighthouse in my model collection of lighthouse models.
Perhaps Santos will (ab)use this beloved local landmark for his 2024 campaign logo?
You can almost certainly name the state with the greatest number of lighthouses. Others are welcome to guess.
Maine?
I thought Maine having been on a cruise there but I believe it is Michigan
Professor Danny Blanchflower economist & fisherman @D_Blanchflower
How do old folk live on the uk pension? It is so low? 10000 quid a year….i get it but The full basic State Pension you can get is £203.85 per week is derisory ….how do people live? US social Security payment being made to 65-year-olds in 2024 is $1,505 or $18,060 per year. But more if you defer to taking payments at 70 maximum benefit would be $4,873/month
When I was 20, 60 years ago, I knew the state pension would not be sufficient in retirement even then, so I, in common with many millions , invested in a private pension over decades
You would have thought that an economist who advised the Bank of England for years would know all about the uk pension system.
PB Tories have now been given two days to get across the channel, before the police patrol come and puncture the boat.
Let’s listen in…
“We can’t go out there today, look at the state of the sea, we’ll never make half way.” “You are absolutely right. What’s the weather forecast for tomorrow?” “Much the same, could get a bit more up and down at times, or maybe a bit calmer later.” “Oh you know what forecasts are like - it really couldn’t be any worse than this. We’ll go tomorrow.”
I have always been on the May 2nd train, but reading this post has now convinced me the election will be next January.
None of the arguments have changed, but I now realise the conversation in Richi's head is composed entirely from the script of Waiting for Godot...
I hope they are listening to me, because my dad has been in the Conservative Party all his life, the remainer sort Boris would have chucked out, and he’s been upset with how the party’s credibility and DNA has been shredded by the last 3 primeministers, but, to see the party only just scrape into three figures for MPs is likely to make him ill. And if I see Labour with nearly 450 MPs I’ll feel very sick too I think.
So it’s an important decision, and those of us who want the Tories to make a recovery and get election result with them 30-35% are on the same page, just this difference in if that can be achieved in April campaign or a campaign in next autumn or winter. My gut feeling for this, it’s going to be far far harder in that difficult time with covid report, households getting higher mortgages and lots of boat crossing to claw back those awol voters and achieve swingback. These voters targeted arn’t the same as all voters, boat crossings will likely mean more to them than a small bit of economic improvement. 😔
an observation from the last thread which I was too late too participate in. I worry that we are painting pensioners as rich fat cats (I am not a pensioner as yet). The previous generation designated as boomer certainly for a lot had good pension provision and got to buy homes at a reasonable cost. However they are dying off bit by bit....my generation...generation x however largely missed out on defined benefit schemes and due to 2 decades of low interest rates most of our pots are not going to be huge and affording an index linked pension over 10k is going to be a pipe dream for most of us. In addition many of my generation like myself missed out on cheap housing as we ended up getting divorced in the late 90's to 2000's and then found a single salary wouldn't get us a mortgage even with the cash realised from our sale of half he house.
I forsee when I retire being reviled as a rich pensioner because of the attitude being inculcated while I am struggling to make ends meet. As an example I am keeping an eye on my pension pot and have worked solidly since 1987, been paying contributions, and generally been top 30 to top 20% of earners. I am told I should be looking at an annuity of 5 to 7k a year non index linked if I dont take a lump sum. Hardly going to be having my mouth stuffed with gold on that but the idea of rich pensioners will still persist I don't doubt
I think we all appreciate that not all pensioners are wealthy, and many pensioners still won't be wealthy in twenty years' time. However...
*Most boomers are outright homeowners, and most of their kids have managed to at least get a mortgage to boot
*Thus, given that our economy is so warped by the deliberate constriction of property supply (which yields huge capital gains for homeowners, as well as virtually guaranteed fat profits for most landlords,) the average oldie will continue to be comfortably off for the foreseeable future
*At this point, we remind ourselves that the average pensioner has a higher income than the average worker, after adjustment for housing costs. This doesn't mean that there aren't substantial numbers of dirt poor pensioners, especially amongst those who missed out on home ownership and/or good old fashioned final salary pensions, but most of them are reasonably well to do
*A large proportion of GenX, including some of us who may still be stuck renting, are also going to receive enormous cash windfalls when they inherit their parents' property. This is entirely untaxed save for about 3-4% of the most valuable estates, and will greatly bolster the prosperity of the next generation of olds
Thus, well to do pensioners are the norm not the exception (and dig into the stats and I bet you'll discover that a higher proportion of kids are living in poverty than are the elderly.)
This is the fundamental argument against the Triple Lock, and in favour of its replacement with a much less generous guarantee backed up by means tested payments for the genuinely hard up. Decades of compound inflation in state pension payments will, quite simply, bleed the working population and their children white. It's precisely the same reasoning behind the near-total disappearance of final salary pensions schemes in the private sector: business scrapped them because the contributions were so steep they became unaffordable.
However, Government ultimately depends on voter support, the median elector is now aged in their mid-50s, and the huge grey vote expects triple locked pensions to carry on forever. Which means they will, until the cost finally bankrupts the entire state. And thus, on we go, circling the plughole.
A state pension of £10k per year isn't going to get you very far even if you own your own home - it is a very basic income. You can't do much to change your situation, you can't get credit or borrow money.
It is an error to speak in general terms about pensioners. The fire should be turned on the tax arrangements for pensioners on high incomes due to defined benefit pensions or savings and investments. They demand a lot from the state but as discussed earlier today they pay around half as much tax as working people (due to NI and student loan repayments) on a similar income.
Married couple - £20k/year, and that's "post-tax". That's loads to live on if you own your house outright.
This is the problem with the whole benefits thing. Paying £10k pa to each pensioner regardless of circumstances represents very different outcomes depending on those circumstances. Single person renting will be in grinding poverty, couple who own their house will be comfortably off.
People have had enough of this government. They simply disbelieve anything they say. They say Brexit will cut immigration, lead to a better NHS and public services in general, and standard of living, and it does precisely the opposite. If the Tories say tax cut, they automatically think taxes must have gone up. You can spoonfeed folk shit for years. Eventually they'll wretch at the mere sight of you. Not entirely sure how nine more months of this is likely to improve anything.
For clarification, Casino Royale is NOT PBs leading Sophist - THAT dishonor belongs to another.
Thank you, I do try.
Your claims as "leading Sophist" are on a par with those of ex-Rep George Santos (R-Ponziland).
BTW (also FYI) GS has announced he's running AGAIN for Congress, in another Longggg Island district.
Would it be cynical to ask, what are odds of whatever campaign contributions he garners, being used to buy himself yet more sweaters (jumpers for UKers) for his klepto-politico wardrobe?
Also guessing this trajectory is Nieman Marcus > Nordstrom > Macys > Marshalls > Dollar General > Goodwill.
Santos is a truly baffling character. He lied about so many inconsequential things it genuinely looks like he cannot help himself.
If Long Island voters put him back in they will deserve what they get. At least time they will know they are electing a bullshitter.
Planning a trip to Long Island in September. Hope to drive to Montauk one sunny day - the diametric opposite of Coney Island - and will look out for evidence of a Santos campaign. How about 'The truth sucks'? Surely that's a slogan we can all get behind, most days.
Have several models of Montauk Lighthouse in my model collection of lighthouse models.
Perhaps Santos will (ab)use this beloved local landmark for his 2024 campaign logo?
You can almost certainly name the state with the greatest number of lighthouses. Others are welcome to guess.
Maine?
I thought Maine having been on a cruise there but I believe it is Michigan
Yes, Michigan has a humungous coastline but in a rational world much of it would belong to Wisconsin. The Upper Peninsula is one of the nicer areas to live, though a bit parky in winter. I do hope it hasn't become dystopian like the places @Leon seems drawn to. It was very agreeable 10 years ago.
People have had enough of this government. They simply disbelieve anything they say. They say Brexit will cut immigration, lead to a better NHS and standard of living, and it does the opposite. If the Tories say tax cut, they automatically think taxes must have gone up. You can spoonfeed folk shit for years. Eventually they'll wretch at the mere sight of you.
The election of Corbyn as Labour leader, which lots of people on the right paid money to sign up and vote for him thinking it was great news for the Tories, is that responsible for the hole the Conservatives are in? It meant they overstayed their welcome and went on too long in relation to how good they were actually doing? And didn’t really feel enough threat from opposition to make them less lazy about the effort and discipline needed?
I think this could be the moment of over reach for Trump. If they try to use that money for themselves, such as fines and bills, it could make them politically unpopular in future, perhaps even jailed?
PB Tories have now been given two days to get across the channel, before the police patrol come and puncture the boat.
Let’s listen in…
“We can’t go out there today, look at the state of the sea, we’ll never make half way.” “You are absolutely right. What’s the weather forecast for tomorrow?” “Much the same, could get a bit more up and down at times, or maybe a bit calmer later.” “Oh you know what forecasts are like - it really couldn’t be any worse than this. We’ll go tomorrow.”
I have always been on the May 2nd train, but reading this post has now convinced me the election will be next January.
None of the arguments have changed, but I now realise the conversation in Richi's head is composed entirely from the script of Waiting for Godot...
I hope they are listening to me, because my dad has been in the Conservative Party all his life, the remainer sort Boris would have chucked out, and he’s been upset with how the party’s credibility and DNA has been shredded by the last 3 primeministers, but, to see the party only just scrape into three figures for MPs is likely to make him ill. And if I see Labour with nearly 450 MPs I’ll feel very sick too I think.
So it’s an important decision, and those of us who want the Tories to make a recovery and get election result with them 30-35% are on the same page, just this difference in if that can be achieved in April campaign or a campaign in next autumn or winter. My gut feeling for this, it’s going to be far far harder in that difficult time with covid report, households getting higher mortgages and lots of boat crossing to claw back those awol voters and achieve swingback. These voters targeted arn’t the same as all voters, boat crossings will likely mean more to them than a small bit of economic improvement. 😔
Are you going to vote Tory? Cos you give the impression that boat crossings are what working people are actually talking about.
For clarification, Casino Royale is NOT PBs leading Sophist - THAT dishonor belongs to another.
Thank you, I do try.
Your claims as "leading Sophist" are on a par with those of ex-Rep George Santos (R-Ponziland).
BTW (also FYI) GS has announced he's running AGAIN for Congress, in another Longggg Island district.
Would it be cynical to ask, what are odds of whatever campaign contributions he garners, being used to buy himself yet more sweaters (jumpers for UKers) for his klepto-politico wardrobe?
Also guessing this trajectory is Nieman Marcus > Nordstrom > Macys > Marshalls > Dollar General > Goodwill.
Santos is a truly baffling character. He lied about so many inconsequential things it genuinely looks like he cannot help himself.
If Long Island voters put him back in they will deserve what they get. At least time they will know they are electing a bullshitter.
Planning a trip to Long Island in September. Hope to drive to Montauk one sunny day - the diametric opposite of Coney Island - and will look out for evidence of a Santos campaign. How about 'The truth sucks'? Surely that's a slogan we can all get behind, most days.
Have several models of Montauk Lighthouse in my model collection of lighthouse models.
Perhaps Santos will (ab)use this beloved local landmark for his 2024 campaign logo?
You can almost certainly name the state with the greatest number of lighthouses. Others are welcome to guess.
Maine?
I thought Maine having been on a cruise there but I believe it is Michigan
You are an extraordinary gentleman, certainly in range of interests, knowledge and experience.
With four of the five major Great Lakes (don't forget Lakes St Clair and Champlain!) the great Wolverine State has a LOT of coastline, with LOTS of commercial navigation.
I think this could be the moment of over reach for Trump. If they try to use that money for themselves, such as fines and bills, it could make them politically unpopular in future, perhaps even jailed?
Short answer is, no.
Republican National Committee is NOT a government agency, and under law has wide latitude to do with it's money what it likes.
In this case, the RNC vote was heavily against motion to deny party funds for Trumps legal black hole.
As for future unpopularity, will have to wait and see. But most voter will NOT be focusing on committees, however high falutin'.
Just more Trump crap from Trump-puppets, whose eagerness to crap all over themselves is already legendary.
Should note that members of RNC are elected by state parties (same is true for DNC) and as a rule are NOT incumbent elected officials, or prominent, or eminent; more often timeservers and hacks, albeit of the second-highest caliber.
Addendum - Most often they are errand boys and girls.
What a surprise. No doubt swapping notes on how to take over a democracy.
I like to picture Viktor showing Trump a "Subverting Democracy 101" colouring book and giving him a box of crayons. Possibly with Donald trying to eat them, crush them into the floor in a rage, eat them again.
For clarification, Casino Royale is NOT PBs leading Sophist - THAT dishonor belongs to another.
Thank you, I do try.
Your claims as "leading Sophist" are on a par with those of ex-Rep George Santos (R-Ponziland).
BTW (also FYI) GS has announced he's running AGAIN for Congress, in another Longggg Island district.
Would it be cynical to ask, what are odds of whatever campaign contributions he garners, being used to buy himself yet more sweaters (jumpers for UKers) for his klepto-politico wardrobe?
Also guessing this trajectory is Nieman Marcus > Nordstrom > Macys > Marshalls > Dollar General > Goodwill.
Santos is a truly baffling character. He lied about so many inconsequential things it genuinely looks like he cannot help himself.
If Long Island voters put him back in they will deserve what they get. At least time they will know they are electing a bullshitter.
Planning a trip to Long Island in September. Hope to drive to Montauk one sunny day - the diametric opposite of Coney Island - and will look out for evidence of a Santos campaign. How about 'The truth sucks'? Surely that's a slogan we can all get behind, most days.
Have several models of Montauk Lighthouse in my model collection of lighthouse models.
Perhaps Santos will (ab)use this beloved local landmark for his 2024 campaign logo?
You can almost certainly name the state with the greatest number of lighthouses. Others are welcome to guess.
Maine?
I thought Maine having been on a cruise there but I believe it is Michigan
Yes, Michigan has a humungous coastline but in a rational world much of it would belong to Wisconsin. The Upper Peninsula is one of the nicer areas to live, though a bit parky in winter. I do hope it hasn't become dystopian like the places @Leon seems drawn to. It was very agreeable 10 years ago.
Back in the early 1970s a friend of mine was in the Air Force, and was stationed for a while at a USAF base on the UP. For which he received overseas pay.
For clarification, Casino Royale is NOT PBs leading Sophist - THAT dishonor belongs to another.
Thank you, I do try.
Your claims as "leading Sophist" are on a par with those of ex-Rep George Santos (R-Ponziland).
BTW (also FYI) GS has announced he's running AGAIN for Congress, in another Longggg Island district.
Would it be cynical to ask, what are odds of whatever campaign contributions he garners, being used to buy himself yet more sweaters (jumpers for UKers) for his klepto-politico wardrobe?
Also guessing this trajectory is Nieman Marcus > Nordstrom > Macys > Marshalls > Dollar General > Goodwill.
Santos is a truly baffling character. He lied about so many inconsequential things it genuinely looks like he cannot help himself.
If Long Island voters put him back in they will deserve what they get. At least time they will know they are electing a bullshitter.
Planning a trip to Long Island in September. Hope to drive to Montauk one sunny day - the diametric opposite of Coney Island - and will look out for evidence of a Santos campaign. How about 'The truth sucks'? Surely that's a slogan we can all get behind, most days.
Have several models of Montauk Lighthouse in my model collection of lighthouse models.
Perhaps Santos will (ab)use this beloved local landmark for his 2024 campaign logo?
You can almost certainly name the state with the greatest number of lighthouses. Others are welcome to guess.
Maine?
I thought Maine having been on a cruise there but I believe it is Michigan
You are an extraordinary gentleman, certainly in range of interests, knowledge and experience.
With four of the five major Great Lakes (don't forget Lakes St Clair and Champlain!) the great Wolverine State has a LOT of coastline, with LOTS of commercial navigation.
Thank you, and my wife and I have had a lifetime of travel, initially with our children across Europe and to Egypt and Israel, the US and Canada but then worldwide many times, visiting our son in New Zealand on several occasions and since 2015 in Vancouver following his marriage to a Canadian
We have been from Antarctica to the Artic and many places in between including 15 cruises but all to interesting destinations and not for the social life
Our last and final cruise was in 2019, when we sailed from Southampton to Newfoundland then Nova Scotia then New England, including Maine with all its lighthouses, and docking in Manhattan for two magical days and casting off while eating our dinner on the open stern as New York and Manhattan slipped away behind us and then back across the Atlantic to Southampton
@Leon is fascinating with his extensive travels, but we have been to so many places, met so many wonderful people, and have so many memories that we recall every day
PB Tories have now been given two days to get across the channel, before the police patrol come and puncture the boat.
Let’s listen in…
“We can’t go out there today, look at the state of the sea, we’ll never make half way.” “You are absolutely right. What’s the weather forecast for tomorrow?” “Much the same, could get a bit more up and down at times, or maybe a bit calmer later.” “Oh you know what forecasts are like - it really couldn’t be any worse than this. We’ll go tomorrow.”
I have always been on the May 2nd train, but reading this post has now convinced me the election will be next January.
None of the arguments have changed, but I now realise the conversation in Richi's head is composed entirely from the script of Waiting for Godot...
I hope they are listening to me, because my dad has been in the Conservative Party all his life, the remainer sort Boris would have chucked out, and he’s been upset with how the party’s credibility and DNA has been shredded by the last 3 primeministers, but, to see the party only just scrape into three figures for MPs is likely to make him ill. And if I see Labour with nearly 450 MPs I’ll feel very sick too I think.
So it’s an important decision, and those of us who want the Tories to make a recovery and get election result with them 30-35% are on the same page, just this difference in if that can be achieved in April campaign or a campaign in next autumn or winter. My gut feeling for this, it’s going to be far far harder in that difficult time with covid report, households getting higher mortgages and lots of boat crossing to claw back those awol voters and achieve swingback. These voters targeted arn’t the same as all voters, boat crossings will likely mean more to them than a small bit of economic improvement. 😔
Are you going to vote Tory? Cos you give the impression that boat crossings are what working people are actually talking about.
Depending where in the country you live - they are talking about it.
Up north it’s not much of a story Kent / Essex however
For clarification, Casino Royale is NOT PBs leading Sophist - THAT dishonor belongs to another.
Thank you, I do try.
Your claims as "leading Sophist" are on a par with those of ex-Rep George Santos (R-Ponziland).
BTW (also FYI) GS has announced he's running AGAIN for Congress, in another Longggg Island district.
Would it be cynical to ask, what are odds of whatever campaign contributions he garners, being used to buy himself yet more sweaters (jumpers for UKers) for his klepto-politico wardrobe?
Also guessing this trajectory is Nieman Marcus > Nordstrom > Macys > Marshalls > Dollar General > Goodwill.
Santos is a truly baffling character. He lied about so many inconsequential things it genuinely looks like he cannot help himself.
If Long Island voters put him back in they will deserve what they get. At least time they will know they are electing a bullshitter.
Planning a trip to Long Island in September. Hope to drive to Montauk one sunny day - the diametric opposite of Coney Island - and will look out for evidence of a Santos campaign. How about 'The truth sucks'? Surely that's a slogan we can all get behind, most days.
Have several models of Montauk Lighthouse in my model collection of lighthouse models.
Perhaps Santos will (ab)use this beloved local landmark for his 2024 campaign logo?
You can almost certainly name the state with the greatest number of lighthouses. Others are welcome to guess.
Maine?
I thought Maine having been on a cruise there but I believe it is Michigan
Yes, Michigan has a humungous coastline but in a rational world much of it would belong to Wisconsin. The Upper Peninsula is one of the nicer areas to live, though a bit parky in winter. I do hope it hasn't become dystopian like the places @Leon seems drawn to. It was very agreeable 10 years ago.
Back in the early 1970s a friend of mine was in the Air Force, and was stationed for a while at a USAF base on the UP. For which he received overseas pay.
I'll bet you have a copy of "How the States got their Shapes" by Mark Stein. If not, highly recommended. A perfect fusion of geography and history.
Comments
It's another poll putting the Tories right at the bottom.
Opinium tweet puts the Labour share at 43% (n/c). In 2023 Opinium had Labour shares in the range 39-45.
Not to say that they don't have room in their wizened little hearts for both.
Otherwise it would be another example of a tendency to appeal to the "good guys" to bend over backwards to accommodate the "bad guys", because there's no point asking the "bad guys" to do anything because everyone knows they won't listen. This seems like a really bad approach that only encourages bad behaviour.
Some small acquaintance with academia suggests they will hunt missing students down with a particular… enthusiasm.
The Gordon Riots don't seem so long ago sometimes.
- Pope wonderful
- Abortion, contraception, gays etc can’t hear a word he is saying.
- Pope wonderful
So you get people, like my wife, who go to Church every Sunday, love St Peter’s in Rome and think JP II is obviously a saint, who have never listened to a word of doctrine on social matters. And her family are fairly conservative Catholics in Peru.
The other 3% are Opus Dei types who think the Pope is a Lutheran heretic.
Taximan: Oh, really? Are you a Protestant or a Catholic?
Businessman: Oh no, no, not at all - I'm a Muslim.
T: Yes, yes, but a Protestant Muslim or a Catholic Muslim?
The tens of billions spaffed on ineffective vote buying...
The last time this set locals were fought, what were the opinion polls saying?
Hartlepool and all that.
Made the peace process worthwhile, in my view.
BTW (also FYI) GS has announced he's running AGAIN for Congress, in another Longggg Island district.
Would it be cynical to ask, what are odds of whatever campaign contributions he garners, being used to buy himself yet more sweaters (jumpers for UKers) for his klepto-politico wardrobe?
Also guessing this trajectory is Nieman Marcus > Nordstrom > Macys > Marshalls > Dollar General > Goodwill.
In his twenty thousand posts before I got here, was BJO always the Crazy Parrot?
IF so, in the Shankill? The Falls? Six miles from Bangor OR Donaghadee, either way?
If Long Island voters put him back in they will deserve what they get. At least time they will know they are electing a bullshitter.
CON heading for 0% October???
migration is up massively the world over. Climate change, famine, warfare, political disruption, the pull of economic opportunity, etc.
No western government has yet figured out how to manage it. It’s the big challenge of the next generation.
I drew a straight line from the Truss Trough and the current Sunak Squiggle.
My estimate of what I call "crazed Catholics" is somewhat higher than yours, especially if you limit scope to, for example, actually attend mass more than once every leap year, let alone go to confession or take communion.
In USA maybe one third or thereabouts of Catholics meeting that threshold, are really as "traditional" as the Opus Dei types want 'em to be.
Though Conservative graph might just work for Florida's newest amusement park - DeSantisWorld.
Looks level. The lowest point Truss ever reached, after all that Truss stuff, Rishi Sunak is now there.
Was Uxbridge the moment it all went wrong?
https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1766516271577759971
HE’S NOT EVEN AN MP!
YOU BOTH RAN AWAY!
https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1766566912580788412
Let’s listen in…
“We can’t go out there today, look at the state of the sea, we’ll never make half way.”
“You are absolutely right. What’s the weather forecast for tomorrow?”
“Much the same, could get a bit more up and down at times, or maybe a bit calmer later.”
“Oh you know what forecasts are like - it really couldn’t be any worse than this. We’ll go tomorrow.”
That’s precisely the moment the God’s on Mount Olympus laugh, isn’t it?
My guess is that his alleged 2024 is (im)Pure Grift.
Professor Danny Blanchflower economist & fisherman
@D_Blanchflower
How do old folk live on the uk pension? It is so low? 10000 quid a year….i get it but The full basic State Pension you can get is £203.85 per week is derisory ….how do people live? US social Security payment being made to 65-year-olds in 2024 is $1,505 or $18,060 per year. But more if you defer to taking payments at 70 maximum benefit would be $4,873/month
https://twitter.com/D_Blanchflower/status/1766549380809605151
Perhaps Santos will (ab)use this beloved local landmark for his 2024 campaign logo?
Election dates more scientific than having a budget and then putting a finger in the air.
Where they are in the polls right now has got absolutely nothing to do with the equation anyway. Nothing has changed in polling in last month, except a few more off Con onto Ref.
What decides it is not the low starting position before campaign, but ability to claw the DK and Ref back during the campaign. And in that sense nothing has changed in recent weeks - more chance of winning DK and Ref back in an April campaign than campaign during record summer and Autumn boat crossings.
Boat crossing losses Trump any marginal gains from economy.
If they see it just the same as I do, as I just described, the timing of a campaign on the ability to fight back, they will call the election early next week.
To be clear, it's not about illegal behaviour - it's penalising stuff he doesn't like.
Revealed: legal fears over Michael Gove’s new definition of ‘extremism’
The communities secretary wants ‘trailblazer’ government departments to pilot a scheme to ban individuals and groups deemed extremist from public life
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/09/revealed-legal-fears-over-michael-gove-definition-extremism
Heck, the Members would have voted for him over Sunak and he had the numbers to force a leadership vote, so it really is entirely his own choice.
All the more absurd from a government on 20% in the polls, that's about to get an arseholing from the electorate.
Foreign policy may look a little better. The Labour party has been very solid on Ukraine, firmly pro Nato and Starmer clearly has little time for the peace at any price fools on the left. So far so New Labour. But where is the red meat for the base? From what we hear it looks as though it will be 'wokery.' A new race equality act and various measures to tackle inequality based on certain characteristics. Nevermind that the best way to challenge wildly divergent life outcomes would be a new economic policy, just like his New Labour forebears Starmer appears to believe that equality laws are more palatable to 'middle England'. I'm not so sure.
Worse still is the likely opposition or lack of it. Little to suggest that the Tories will be anything other than John Stuart Mill's stupid party. The Lib Dems barely registering a pulse and some loud Scot Nats causing a nuisance. Things aren't likely to get a whole lot better.
None of the arguments have changed, but I now realise the conversation in Richi's head is composed entirely from the script of Waiting for Godot...
Christian Horner warns Verstappen: ‘No one is bigger than the team’
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/mar/09/christian-horner-warns-max-verstappen-no-one-is-bigger-than-the-team-f1-saudi-arabian-grand-prix
Though Maineiacs WOULD have one more than they do now, except that Perfidious Albion seized and expropriated Machias Seal Island - then added insult to injury by turning it over to the tender mercies of savage Canucks!
But since we've had Islamists doing race quality training for the police perhaps it might be better to start with the basics.
What a surprise. No doubt swapping notes on how to take over a democracy.
Nothing. Has. Changed. 😂
You don't know what you are talking about, as evidenced by misinterpretation of border infrastructure. Which isn't so much about immigration but the flow of goods and people who are very much allowed to be here through. We've delayed checks on food so many times they still haven't been implemented. Built giant car parks for lorries (Dover is planning to reclaim land from the sea to expand) as have had problems with queues. Businesses have had an awful time with red tape - as even many staunch Brexiteers admit, while not blaming the grand idea itself.
That's with a deal that has been very much phased in by us not implementing things we've not been ready for. No Deal was that multiplied many times over. I don't think you have a clue about the immediate costs it would have taken to mitigate it.
The money wouldn't have been going on border police, but making sure the border operated as far as possible like before, despite having much more complex processes to undertake. It might have even made the bits people care about worse, as sprawling organisations with more to do don't tend to get more efficient at their individual competencies.
It's not even particularly about Brexit - good or bad. There's plenty of people who think Brexit is a good thing as longer term it decouples us from the European economically somewhat, but realised it was crackers from the start to think you can unwind 40 years of integration of supply chains, competencies, regulations, and policy overnight without imposing eyewatering costs on yourselves.
Gove has not even attempted to consult on the issue.
So it’s an important decision, and those of us who want the Tories to make a recovery and get election result with them 30-35% are on the same page, just this difference in if that can be achieved in April campaign or a campaign in next autumn or winter. My gut feeling for this, it’s going to be far far harder in that difficult time with covid report, households getting higher mortgages and lots of boat crossing to claw back those awol voters and achieve swingback. These voters targeted arn’t the same as all voters, boat crossings will likely mean more to them than a small bit of economic improvement. 😔
https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1758908100369850431
This is the problem with the whole benefits thing. Paying £10k pa to each pensioner regardless of circumstances represents very different outcomes depending on those circumstances. Single person renting will be in grinding poverty, couple who own their house will be comfortably off.
They simply disbelieve anything they say. They say Brexit will cut immigration, lead to a better NHS and public services in general, and standard of living, and it does precisely the opposite.
If the Tories say tax cut, they automatically think taxes must have gone up.
You can spoonfeed folk shit for years. Eventually they'll wretch at the mere sight of you.
Not entirely sure how nine more months of this is likely to improve anything.
Cos you give the impression that boat crossings are what working people are actually talking about.
With four of the five major Great Lakes (don't forget Lakes St Clair and Champlain!) the great Wolverine State has a LOT of coastline, with LOTS of commercial navigation.
Republican National Committee is NOT a government agency, and under law has wide latitude to do with it's money what it likes.
In this case, the RNC vote was heavily against motion to deny party funds for Trumps legal black hole.
As for future unpopularity, will have to wait and see. But most voter will NOT be focusing on committees, however high falutin'.
Just more Trump crap from Trump-puppets, whose eagerness to crap all over themselves is already legendary.
Should note that members of RNC are elected by state parties (same is true for DNC) and as a rule are NOT incumbent elected officials, or prominent, or eminent; more often timeservers and hacks, albeit of the second-highest caliber.
Addendum - Most often they are errand boys and girls.
"Like" is possibly not the right word.
We have been from Antarctica to the Artic and many places in between including 15 cruises but all to interesting destinations and not for the social life
Our last and final cruise was in 2019, when we sailed from Southampton to Newfoundland then Nova Scotia then New England, including Maine with all its lighthouses, and docking in Manhattan for two magical days and casting off while eating our dinner on the open stern as New York and Manhattan slipped away behind us and then back across the Atlantic to Southampton
@Leon is fascinating with his extensive travels, but we have been to so many places, met so many wonderful people, and have so many memories that we recall every day
It is true that travel broadens your mind
Up north it’s not much of a story Kent / Essex however