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There will be no May election – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,736
edited March 12 in General
There will be no May election – politicalbetting.com

Theresa May has announced she won't stand at the next election after 27 years as an MP. Asked today, Britons' opinion of the former PM…Very favourable: 4%Somewhat favourable: 25%Somewhat unfavourable: 30%Very unfavourable: 24%https://t.co/KrJdSOient pic.twitter.com/cwTuNo6NIx

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,789
    Was Humza Yousaf coaching Scotland's men's rugby union team today?
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    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,159
    Top trolling headline there. Well done.
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    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    Decent interview with Sajid Javid on my favourite podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYRcV54YIag.

    But I thought his justification for making Begum stateless was weak. Basically that we can't prosecute her in court so we just don't bother and avoid justice altogether?

    What sort of precedent does that set?
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    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    @MoonRabbit hasn't got long left, either being hailed as the greatest predictor in PB history other than @CorrectHorseBattery...
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,789
    mwadams said:

    Top trolling headline there. Well done.

    Wait until you see the second paragraph.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139

    Decent interview with Sajid Javid on my favourite podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYRcV54YIag.

    But I thought his justification for making Begum stateless was weak. Basically that we can't prosecute her in court so we just don't bother and avoid justice altogether?

    What sort of precedent does that set?

    For me a lot of the legal challenges of the decision to date have not hit home because the question of whether it was the right thing to do is not really a legal question at all. Indeed, after the last one did not succeed the lawyers at least acknowledged it was now (and I would say always was) more of a moral question. Should the Home Secretary have such power, and if so should there be any additional processes or safeguards?

    Whichever way people all on that question however, and the particular circumstances of the case, I doubt the Starmer government is going to be divesting itself of that power.

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    edited March 9

    mwadams said:

    Top trolling headline there. Well done.

    Wait until you see the second paragraph.
    I don't think firing Osborne drives any unfavourable view (and doubt you do either), but doing so in a way which sought to publicly humiliate him by leaking about specific things said was politically unwise and needless. I know some argued maybe he was the one who provided the details but that's nonsense, the framing was very much about showing her being strong in kicking him out.

    I have some admiration for May for her doggedness. I think she was inadequate to the task of managing her internal Brexit coalition, but I'm not sure anyone was up to it, though I turned against the government when it was admitted almost a year into triggering A50 it still had no agreement even at Cabint level, so she did not show strength in that time but was just avoiding arguments.

    The LD score is interesting.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    AlsoLei said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile another significant landslip along the coast. Ten landslips large and small in and around the town, now. We’ll all be asking Biden to build us a harbour to bring in relief aid, at this rate.

    Is this because of how wet it's been?

    8 months in a row now of above-average rainfall, including this from last month:


    Surprised there;s not been even more flooding than there has been.
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    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,263

    @MoonRabbit hasn't got long left, either being hailed as the greatest predictor in PB history other than @CorrectHorseBattery...

    Still time for Rishi to call it. Could be anytime next week!
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,620
    edited March 9
    According to Heywood, Mrs M knew the right thing to do was to push through a soft, consensus Brexit, but simply didn’t have the capital, and so caved to her nutters. A shame, since her legacy would have been better for having tried to do the right thing.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,620
    kle4 said:

    AlsoLei said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile another significant landslip along the coast. Ten landslips large and small in and around the town, now. We’ll all be asking Biden to build us a harbour to bring in relief aid, at this rate.

    Is this because of how wet it's been?

    8 months in a row now of above-average rainfall, including this from last month:


    Surprised there;s not been even more flooding than there has been.
    Last winter this wet here was in the 1940s, apparently.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    IanB2 said:

    According to Heywood, Mrs M knew the right thing to do was to push through a soft, consensus Brexit, but simply didn’t have the capital, and so caved to her nutters. A shame, since her legacy would have been better for having tried to do the right thing.

    What might have happened had we not had the Corbyn surge? She needed a large buffer in order to be master of her own destiny.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,655
    edited March 9
    kle4 said:

    mwadams said:

    Top trolling headline there. Well done.

    Wait until you see the second paragraph.
    I don't think firing Osborne drives any unfavourable view (and doubt you do either), but doing so in a way which sought to publicly humiliate him by leaking about specific things said was politically unwise and needless. I know some argued maybe he was the one who provided the details but that's nonsense, the framing was very much about showing her being strong in kicking him out.

    I have some admiration for May for her doggedness. I think she was inadequate to the task of managing her internal Brexit coalition, but I'm not sure anyone was up to it, though I turned against the government when it was admitted almost a year into triggering A50 it still had no agreement even at Cabint level, so she did not show strength in that time but was just avoiding arguments.

    The LD score is interesting.
    I suspect, a bit like Major and Kinnock, she will be more favourably viewed as the years roll on. She actually mostly did a pretty good job under near-impossible conditions, and it isn't entirely her fault that we ended up with Massive Johnson caving to the EU on every substantive point.

    However, whenever her legacy is discussed, the mistake of the 2017 election will bulk large in it. However well intentioned and however logical it must have seemed, there is simply no good thing to say about how big a disaster it was. She should have held that trump card until the negotiations were complete, then forced through the deal either by calling it or threatening it.

    Oddly, that may help to partially rehabilitate Brown of course.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,655
    kle4 said:

    AlsoLei said:

    IanB2 said:

    Meanwhile another significant landslip along the coast. Ten landslips large and small in and around the town, now. We’ll all be asking Biden to build us a harbour to bring in relief aid, at this rate.

    Is this because of how wet it's been?

    8 months in a row now of above-average rainfall, including this from last month:


    Surprised there;s not been even more flooding than there has been.
    One - major - road near me has been continuously flooded since October. It's passable, but only just and only in single file. It is an HGV route to the M54 and M6 and the scenes at rush hour can be better imagined than described!
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,620
    After a cracking day at Crufts, suspense builds towards this evening’s Large Agility final, the Scruffts final, and the evening’s judging for the Working and Pastoral categories.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    Wasn't aware of the event, but a quick look suggests the Irish constitution must contain some rather woolly, unnecessary fluff. A lean constitution wouldn't have this stuff to start with (not that the UK is in a position to judge constitutional leanness).




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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,539
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    According to Heywood, Mrs M knew the right thing to do was to push through a soft, consensus Brexit, but simply didn’t have the capital, and so caved to her nutters. A shame, since her legacy would have been better for having tried to do the right thing.

    What might have happened had we not had the Corbyn surge? She needed a large buffer in order to be master of her own destiny.
    Or if she hadn't called the election at all. I think she'd have got a fractious and painful but pragmatic Brexit done.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,803
    kle4 said:

    Wasn't aware of the event, but a quick look suggests the Irish constitution must contain some rather woolly, unnecessary fluff. A lean constitution wouldn't have this stuff to start with (not that the UK is in a position to judge constitutional leanness).




    de Valera decided women should stay in the home. Oddly the vote says Ireland agrees with him.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,344
    Meet the new RNC deputy chair.

    Lara Trump says when she becomes co-Chair of the Republican Party, “anyone” who doesn’t support Trump and MAGA will be told to “leave” the party
    https://twitter.com/DNCWarRoom/status/1764785689344778249
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    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 828
    Bit of an embarrassment for the government but unlikely to change things politically, I'd have thought - it might continue the drift away from Sinn Fein, and maybe give Aontu a boost?
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,754
    Why Theresa May, a good MP, should never have been prime minister
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/why-theresa-may-a-good-mp-should-never-have-been-prime-minister/ar-BB1jzC94

    Charles Moore wields the stiletto. Older PBers will recall that Boris's pal Charles Moore gave disastrous advice about saving Owen Paterson, leading to Boris's own departure and Moore's peerage.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,539
    edited March 9
    IanB2 said:

    According to Heywood, Mrs M knew the right thing to do was to push through a soft, consensus Brexit, but simply didn’t have the capital, and so caved to her nutters. A shame, since her legacy would have been better for having tried to do the right thing.

    I think she did try and do the right thing. But after losing the Con majority following a poor and personalised GE campaign she lacked the necessary authority.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    Nigelb said:

    Meet the new RNC deputy chair.

    Lara Trump says when she becomes co-Chair of the Republican Party, “anyone” who doesn’t support Trump and MAGA will be told to “leave” the party
    https://twitter.com/DNCWarRoom/status/1764785689344778249

    I will never understand why so many Republicans sit there and take it. People who Trump and his acolytes mock and belittle and insult still bend knee and at least publicly sign up to everything he says and does.

    I get it, they want to be elected and by and large they won't manage that without giving in, but it doesn't prevent Trump from still insulting them (see DeSantis), and the biggest Trump fans still despite them even after they give in. So is it even worth it?

    Especially for those who are standing down, why don't they speak out more against the Lara Trump's of the world? What do they have to lose?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,655
    edited March 9
    Nigelb said:

    Meet the new RNC deputy chair.

    Lara Trump says when she becomes co-Chair of the Republican Party, “anyone” who doesn’t support Trump and MAGA will be told to “leave” the party
    https://twitter.com/DNCWarRoom/status/1764785689344778249

    Let's hope they take her advice. It's a while since we had a 49-1 landslide* in the electoral college and the look on Trump's face as it happened would be hilarious.

    *Not counting DC, it would be 1984.
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,745

    kle4 said:

    Wasn't aware of the event, but a quick look suggests the Irish constitution must contain some rather woolly, unnecessary fluff. A lean constitution wouldn't have this stuff to start with (not that the UK is in a position to judge constitutional leanness).




    de Valera decided women should stay in the home. Oddly the vote says Ireland agrees with him.
    Moral: Don't do referendums if the electorate is likely to use them as a way of saying "we're grumpy". Or, if you must, make sure that the referendum isn't consequential.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,539
    kle4 said:

    Wasn't aware of the event, but a quick look suggests the Irish constitution must contain some rather woolly, unnecessary fluff. A lean constitution wouldn't have this stuff to start with (not that the UK is in a position to judge constitutional leanness).


    Our Constitution is very lean.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139

    Why Theresa May, a good MP, should never have been prime minister
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/why-theresa-may-a-good-mp-should-never-have-been-prime-minister/ar-BB1jzC94

    Charles Moore wields the stiletto. Older PBers will recall that Boris's pal Charles Moore gave disastrous advice about saving Owen Paterson, leading to Boris's own departure and Moore's peerage.

    Being charitable maybe he's better at commentary when it's not wrapped up in upper class twits chortling together drinking port and figuring out how to save their buddies, who cannot have done wrong because they know them from school or the gentleman's club or whatever.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,344

    Why Theresa May, a good MP, should never have been prime minister
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/why-theresa-may-a-good-mp-should-never-have-been-prime-minister/ar-BB1jzC94

    Charles Moore wields the stiletto. Older PBers will recall that Boris's pal Charles Moore gave disastrous advice about saving Owen Paterson, leading to Boris's own departure and Moore's peerage.

    Moore has been a prat for many decades.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Wasn't aware of the event, but a quick look suggests the Irish constitution must contain some rather woolly, unnecessary fluff. A lean constitution wouldn't have this stuff to start with (not that the UK is in a position to judge constitutional leanness).


    Our Constitution is very lean.
    On the contrary, it's extensive and widely dispersed to boot, making it much harder to simply understand.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,193
    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Wasn't aware of the event, but a quick look suggests the Irish constitution must contain some rather woolly, unnecessary fluff. A lean constitution wouldn't have this stuff to start with (not that the UK is in a position to judge constitutional leanness).


    Our Constitution is very lean.
    On the contrary, it's extensive and widely dispersed to boot, making it much harder to simply understand.
    With a position for the Editor of the Spectator, it would seem, alongside such as the Archbish of C and Black Rod.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,589
    Cameron only managed to lose 1 referendum. Go Varadkar, go far, far away.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    Nice wordplay
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869
    AlsoLei said:

    Bit of an embarrassment for the government but unlikely to change things politically, I'd have thought - it might continue the drift away from Sinn Fein, and maybe give Aontu a boost?
    It's good. It's madcap stuff like this by their leadership that will chip away at the base of support for Sinn Fein.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Wasn't aware of the event, but a quick look suggests the Irish constitution must contain some rather woolly, unnecessary fluff. A lean constitution wouldn't have this stuff to start with (not that the UK is in a position to judge constitutional leanness).


    Our Constitution is very lean.
    On the contrary, it's extensive and widely dispersed to boot, making it much harder to simply understand.
    With a position for the Editor of the Spectator, it would seem, alongside such as the Archbish of C and Black Rod.
    And pseudonymous letters to a newspaper, as it should be.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869

    kle4 said:

    Wasn't aware of the event, but a quick look suggests the Irish constitution must contain some rather woolly, unnecessary fluff. A lean constitution wouldn't have this stuff to start with (not that the UK is in a position to judge constitutional leanness).




    de Valera decided women should stay in the home. Oddly the vote says Ireland agrees with him.
    I think the poorly thought through move for the second vote doomed the first.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    edited March 9

    kle4 said:

    Wasn't aware of the event, but a quick look suggests the Irish constitution must contain some rather woolly, unnecessary fluff. A lean constitution wouldn't have this stuff to start with (not that the UK is in a position to judge constitutional leanness).




    de Valera decided women should stay in the home. Oddly the vote says Ireland agrees with him.
    I think the poorly thought through move for the second vote doomed the first.
    These Woke gestural referendums (cf The Voice in Oz) are a thoroughly bad idea. Not least coz voters dislike them and vote them down, creating bitterness that didn’t exist before
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,589
    Has Verstappen won yet? Can hardly be bothered to watch.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,153

    Why Theresa May, a good MP, should never have been prime minister
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/why-theresa-may-a-good-mp-should-never-have-been-prime-minister/ar-BB1jzC94

    Charles Moore wields the stiletto. Older PBers will recall that Boris's pal Charles Moore gave disastrous advice about saving Owen Paterson, leading to Boris's own departure and Moore's peerage.

    Executive summary: Because she wasn't a Brexiteer. (And after Brexit, things went wrong because of Covid.)
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Wasn't aware of the event, but a quick look suggests the Irish constitution must contain some rather woolly, unnecessary fluff. A lean constitution wouldn't have this stuff to start with (not that the UK is in a position to judge constitutional leanness).




    de Valera decided women should stay in the home. Oddly the vote says Ireland agrees with him.
    I think the poorly thought through move for the second vote doomed the first.
    These Woke gestural referendums (cf The Voice in Oz) are a thoroughly bad idea. Not least coz voters dislike them and vote them down, creating bitterness that didn’t exist before
    The Aus one at least seemed to be proposing some concrete things, even if it lost support as thing went. The Irish ones, however well intended, seem to amount the kind of wording tweaks you get in a committee drafting discussion, not likely to achieve anything significant. If its just that hard to change the constitution even in such a small way it might be better to just ignore the embarrassing bits for now, and remove them as part of a wider package of more substantive changes at some other time.

    But maybe in Ireland each article must get a separate vote.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,334
    Astonishing result when polls had both proposals passing comfortably. Humiliation for the main Irish parties, FG and FF and SF all of whom backed the amendment with only Aotu and rural independents opposed.

    A triumph for social conservatives and the Vatican though who opposed both amendments as undermining the traditional family and mother's role in the home. After recent defeats in referendums on abortion and gay marriage today is the Irish Roman Catholic church's revenge
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,589
    Chris said:

    Why Theresa May, a good MP, should never have been prime minister
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/why-theresa-may-a-good-mp-should-never-have-been-prime-minister/ar-BB1jzC94

    Charles Moore wields the stiletto. Older PBers will recall that Boris's pal Charles Moore gave disastrous advice about saving Owen Paterson, leading to Boris's own departure and Moore's peerage.

    Executive summary: Because she wasn't a Brexiteer. (And after Brexit, things went wrong because of Covid.)
    A more thorough summary would be to say that as HS for so long she learned all the wrong lessons of government. Make your decisions without even a pretense at consultation and then present everyone with a fait accompli. Worked when she had a strong PM backing her (however reluctantly) but a total disaster when she got the top job. Absolutely no idea how to build support or a consensus.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    DavidL said:

    Chris said:

    Why Theresa May, a good MP, should never have been prime minister
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/why-theresa-may-a-good-mp-should-never-have-been-prime-minister/ar-BB1jzC94

    Charles Moore wields the stiletto. Older PBers will recall that Boris's pal Charles Moore gave disastrous advice about saving Owen Paterson, leading to Boris's own departure and Moore's peerage.

    Executive summary: Because she wasn't a Brexiteer. (And after Brexit, things went wrong because of Covid.)
    ...Make your decisions without even a pretense at consultation and then present everyone with a fait accompli. ...
    Thank goodness no other PMs who followed her tried that path.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Wasn't aware of the event, but a quick look suggests the Irish constitution must contain some rather woolly, unnecessary fluff. A lean constitution wouldn't have this stuff to start with (not that the UK is in a position to judge constitutional leanness).




    de Valera decided women should stay in the home. Oddly the vote says Ireland agrees with him.
    I think the poorly thought through move for the second vote doomed the first.
    These Woke gestural referendums (cf The Voice in Oz) are a thoroughly bad idea. Not least coz voters dislike them and vote them down, creating bitterness that didn’t exist before
    The Aus one at least seemed to be proposing some concrete things, even if it lost support as thing went. The Irish ones, however well intended, seem to amount the kind of wording tweaks you get in a committee drafting discussion, not likely to achieve anything significant. If its just that hard to change the constitution even in such a small way it might be better to just ignore the embarrassing bits for now, and remove them as part of a wider package of more substantive changes at some other time.

    But maybe in Ireland each article must get a separate vote.
    It was crap, amateurish politics from Varadkar, and now he’s made himself look a fool, for no reason at all

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,334
    On the header numbers Remainers are slightly more likely to view May favourably than Leavers and she does almost as well with LDs as Tories though much worse with Labour voters. Showing like Cameron she was a product of the 2010-2015 Coalition voter demographic rather than the more UKIP 2019 Conservative vote.

    May could have the last laugh though, if Starmer does win the next general election the final Brexit deal will likely look more like hers than Johnson's as Sir Keir will push for closer regulatory alignment with the EU while still outside the EU and EEA

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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,589
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Chris said:

    Why Theresa May, a good MP, should never have been prime minister
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/why-theresa-may-a-good-mp-should-never-have-been-prime-minister/ar-BB1jzC94

    Charles Moore wields the stiletto. Older PBers will recall that Boris's pal Charles Moore gave disastrous advice about saving Owen Paterson, leading to Boris's own departure and Moore's peerage.

    Executive summary: Because she wasn't a Brexiteer. (And after Brexit, things went wrong because of Covid.)
    ...Make your decisions without even a pretense at consultation and then present everyone with a fait accompli. ...
    Thank goodness no other PMs who followed her tried that path.
    If fairness they have each found their own ways to screw up.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    ...
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,589
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Wasn't aware of the event, but a quick look suggests the Irish constitution must contain some rather woolly, unnecessary fluff. A lean constitution wouldn't have this stuff to start with (not that the UK is in a position to judge constitutional leanness).




    de Valera decided women should stay in the home. Oddly the vote says Ireland agrees with him.
    I think the poorly thought through move for the second vote doomed the first.
    These Woke gestural referendums (cf The Voice in Oz) are a thoroughly bad idea. Not least coz voters dislike them and vote them down, creating bitterness that didn’t exist before
    The Aus one at least seemed to be proposing some concrete things, even if it lost support as thing went. The Irish ones, however well intended, seem to amount the kind of wording tweaks you get in a committee drafting discussion, not likely to achieve anything significant. If its just that hard to change the constitution even in such a small way it might be better to just ignore the embarrassing bits for now, and remove them as part of a wider package of more substantive changes at some other time.

    But maybe in Ireland each article must get a separate vote.
    It was crap, amateurish politics from Varadkar, and now he’s made himself look a fool, for no reason at all

    Well, apart from the obvious one.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,539
    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Wasn't aware of the event, but a quick look suggests the Irish constitution must contain some rather woolly, unnecessary fluff. A lean constitution wouldn't have this stuff to start with (not that the UK is in a position to judge constitutional leanness).


    Our Constitution is very lean.
    On the contrary, it's extensive and widely dispersed to boot, making it much harder to simply understand.
    I thought we didn't have one as such. More a mix of statute, common law, precedent, custom and etiquette etc?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Meet the new RNC deputy chair.

    Lara Trump says when she becomes co-Chair of the Republican Party, “anyone” who doesn’t support Trump and MAGA will be told to “leave” the party
    https://twitter.com/DNCWarRoom/status/1764785689344778249

    Let's hope they take her advice. It's a while since we had a 49-1 landslide* in the electoral college and the look on Trump's face as it happened would be hilarious.

    *Not counting DC, it would be 1984.
    I am a big pessimist on US Politics, but my big hope is that a whole host of non-Trump Republicans just stay home for the election if they cannot bring themselves to vote Biden. That alone would see a Biden landslide.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,197
    Energetic, fast moving game. Engerland could redeem themselves here
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,754
    Chris said:

    Why Theresa May, a good MP, should never have been prime minister
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/why-theresa-may-a-good-mp-should-never-have-been-prime-minister/ar-BB1jzC94

    Charles Moore wields the stiletto. Older PBers will recall that Boris's pal Charles Moore gave disastrous advice about saving Owen Paterson, leading to Boris's own departure and Moore's peerage.

    Executive summary: Because she wasn't a Brexiteer. (And after Brexit, things went wrong because of Covid.)
    Paradoxically, imo Theresa May was a Brexiteer but pretended to be a Remainer, whereas in the other corner, Boris was a Remainer pretending to be a Brexiteer, both for career reasons. Liz Truss was another Remainer later adopted by the Brexit wing as one of their own; Rishi, a Leaver adopted by pro-EU MPs.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    edited March 9
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Wasn't aware of the event, but a quick look suggests the Irish constitution must contain some rather woolly, unnecessary fluff. A lean constitution wouldn't have this stuff to start with (not that the UK is in a position to judge constitutional leanness).


    Our Constitution is very lean.
    On the contrary, it's extensive and widely dispersed to boot, making it much harder to simply understand.
    I thought we didn't have one as such. More a mix of statute, common law, precedent, custom and etiquette etc?
    We have a Constitution, what we don't have is a codified Constitution (like practically everyone else). So when people say we don't have a written constitution its not quite correct, since statute, common law etc are written, just all over the place.

    Hence my saying we cannot criticise an overly long constitution, since at least theirs can still be broadly read in one document, rather than looking up various other things and trying to figure out which ones and which practices are deemed constitutionally significant.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,344
    .
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Meet the new RNC deputy chair.

    Lara Trump says when she becomes co-Chair of the Republican Party, “anyone” who doesn’t support Trump and MAGA will be told to “leave” the party
    https://twitter.com/DNCWarRoom/status/1764785689344778249

    I will never understand why so many Republicans sit there and take it. People who Trump and his acolytes mock and belittle and insult still bend knee and at least publicly sign up to everything he says and does.

    I get it, they want to be elected and by and large they won't manage that without giving in, but it doesn't prevent Trump from still insulting them (see DeSantis), and the biggest Trump fans still despite them even after they give in. So is it even worth it?

    Especially for those who are standing down, why don't they speak out more against the Lara Trump's of the world? What do they have to lose?
    It goes along with all those polls which suggest that a not insubstantial portion of the electorate would prefer a “strong leader” to democracy.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,539
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Wasn't aware of the event, but a quick look suggests the Irish constitution must contain some rather woolly, unnecessary fluff. A lean constitution wouldn't have this stuff to start with (not that the UK is in a position to judge constitutional leanness).




    de Valera decided women should stay in the home. Oddly the vote says Ireland agrees with him.
    I think the poorly thought through move for the second vote doomed the first.
    These Woke gestural referendums (cf The Voice in Oz) are a thoroughly bad idea. Not least coz voters dislike them and vote them down, creating bitterness that didn’t exist before
    Remove 'Woke gestural' and you still have a very serviceable first sentence.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,344
    .
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Meet the new RNC deputy chair.

    Lara Trump says when she becomes co-Chair of the Republican Party, “anyone” who doesn’t support Trump and MAGA will be told to “leave” the party
    https://twitter.com/DNCWarRoom/status/1764785689344778249

    I will never understand why so many Republicans sit there and take it. People who Trump and his acolytes mock and belittle and insult still bend knee and at least publicly sign up to everything he says and does.

    I get it, they want to be elected and by and large they won't manage that without giving in, but it doesn't prevent Trump from still insulting them (see DeSantis), and the biggest Trump fans still despite them even after they give in. So is it even worth it?

    Especially for those who are standing down, why don't they speak out more against the Lara Trump's of the world? What do they have to lose?
    It goes along with all those polls which suggest that a not insubstantial portion of the electorate would prefer a “strong leader” to democracy.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    edited March 9
    TMay completely fucked the Brexit process with her IDIOTIC and utterly unnecessary “red lines” and “citizens of nowhere” speech. That boxed the UK in from the start, along with her ineptly timed triggering of A50

    She was a truly dreadful prime minister. The worst of my lifetime. Yes Truss was a calamity but she only lasted 5 seconds, Truss was like a burst tyre on the motorway, scary but brief. TMay’s premiership was like a long horrible motorway pile up in the fog, eventually involving 389 vehicles and a downed helicopter, when she didn’t have to drive at all
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,539
    HYUFD said:

    Astonishing result when polls had both proposals passing comfortably. Humiliation for the main Irish parties, FG and FF and SF all of whom backed the amendment with only Aotu and rural independents opposed.

    A triumph for social conservatives and the Vatican though who opposed both amendments as undermining the traditional family and mother's role in the home. After recent defeats in referendums on abortion and gay marriage today is the Irish Roman Catholic church's revenge
    The 'shy chauvinist' effect?
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,539
    DavidL said:

    Has Verstappen won yet? Can hardly be bothered to watch.

    Yes the 'sport' is all off track atm.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,620
    edited March 9
    Things hotting up in the large agility International final on Crufts super Saturday, as Danish dog Posh goes clear and into the lead
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    DavidL said:

    Chris said:

    Why Theresa May, a good MP, should never have been prime minister
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/why-theresa-may-a-good-mp-should-never-have-been-prime-minister/ar-BB1jzC94

    Charles Moore wields the stiletto. Older PBers will recall that Boris's pal Charles Moore gave disastrous advice about saving Owen Paterson, leading to Boris's own departure and Moore's peerage.

    Executive summary: Because she wasn't a Brexiteer. (And after Brexit, things went wrong because of Covid.)
    A more thorough summary would be to say that as HS for so long she learned all the wrong lessons of government. Make your decisions without even a pretense at consultation and then present everyone with a fait accompli. Worked when she had a strong PM backing her (however reluctantly) but a total disaster when she got the top job. Absolutely no idea how to build support or a consensus.
    Yes. I know people don’t like me using the word autistic but I reckon she is on the spectrum (others may differ). This is not necessarily a handicap in politics, indeed it can offer advantages (single mindedness, work ethic, drive and ambition - cf Elon musk) but it also means you are likely to have a tin ear, be bad at team work, and you will not read the room

    She REALLY did not read the room on Brexit

    She could have built a consensus on a very soft Brexit that would have satisfied many Leavers and mollified many Remainers, at least as a holding position
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,539

    kle4 said:

    Wasn't aware of the event, but a quick look suggests the Irish constitution must contain some rather woolly, unnecessary fluff. A lean constitution wouldn't have this stuff to start with (not that the UK is in a position to judge constitutional leanness).




    de Valera decided women should stay in the home. Oddly the vote says Ireland agrees with him.
    Moral: Don't do referendums if the electorate is likely to use them as a way of saying "we're grumpy". Or, if you must, make sure that the referendum isn't consequential.
    I actually and seriously think referendums should be confined to matters that are not serious and are simple to understand.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,620
    Kipper the Collie from the Isle of Man clear but misses the lead after a hesitation at a jump
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,620
    edited March 9
    The English Collie, tipped for the trophy, is eliminated after taking the tunnel instead of the A frame.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,620
    edited March 9
    Yes…the French Collie goes clear, a second and a half ahead to take the lead

    Now the Italian entry…a jump down, five faults

    Next, the USA Collie…looking good..but five faults at the see saw, missing the entry contact point.

    The Welsh brown Collie…second place, 0.4 seconds off the lead

    Scooby, the Luxembourg Collie…five faults missing the contact onto the A frame, then eliminated
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 5,112
    England playing well but only 2 points ahead . We know how this ends .
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,334
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Chris said:

    Why Theresa May, a good MP, should never have been prime minister
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/why-theresa-may-a-good-mp-should-never-have-been-prime-minister/ar-BB1jzC94

    Charles Moore wields the stiletto. Older PBers will recall that Boris's pal Charles Moore gave disastrous advice about saving Owen Paterson, leading to Boris's own departure and Moore's peerage.

    Executive summary: Because she wasn't a Brexiteer. (And after Brexit, things went wrong because of Covid.)
    A more thorough summary would be to say that as HS for so long she learned all the wrong lessons of government. Make your decisions without even a pretense at consultation and then present everyone with a fait accompli. Worked when she had a strong PM backing her (however reluctantly) but a total disaster when she got the top job. Absolutely no idea how to build support or a consensus.
    Yes. I know people don’t like me using the word autistic but I reckon she is on the spectrum (others may differ). This is not necessarily a handicap in politics, indeed it can offer advantages (single mindedness, work ethic, drive and ambition - cf Elon musk) but it also means you are likely to have a tin ear, be bad at team work, and you will not read the room

    She REALLY did not read the room on Brexit

    She could have built a consensus on a very soft Brexit that would have satisfied many Leavers and mollified many Remainers, at least as a holding position
    No Boris won in 2019 on an even harder Brexit than May's, an ultra soft Brexit only meant Farage overtaking the Tories
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,078
    Ireland in front despite being totally outplayed and having had no territory or ball.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,193
    In other competitions: *Winnie-the-Pooh: Blood and Honey* wins a top movie award.

    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2024/mar/09/winnie-the-pooh-blood-and-honey-wins-worst-film-at-razzies
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Wasn't aware of the event, but a quick look suggests the Irish constitution must contain some rather woolly, unnecessary fluff. A lean constitution wouldn't have this stuff to start with (not that the UK is in a position to judge constitutional leanness).




    de Valera decided women should stay in the home. Oddly the vote says Ireland agrees with him.
    Moral: Don't do referendums if the electorate is likely to use them as a way of saying "we're grumpy". Or, if you must, make sure that the referendum isn't consequential.
    I actually and seriously think referendums should be confined to matters that are not serious and are simple to understand.
    I too am coming round to that position

    Setting aside the results, are Scotland and Britain happier places for their respective Indy and Brexit referendums? No they are not. There is a legacy of polarised anger and bitterness which is taking years to disperse and may never disappear entirely

    I guess you must have them for absolutely fundamental changes - like independence - but they should be treated much more seriously. Both sides should have to produce detailed proposals that are independent scrutinised - not waffly manifestos where you can claim anything

    There should be long public consultations. Assemblies. Town halls. Major debates. This should take a year or two at least - not a few weeks like an election campaign

    OR we go the Swiss route and have them all the time for everything so then people get used to them

    We have the worst of all worlds at the moment. We have momentous votes but treat them like they are casual opinion polls
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,139
    edited March 9
    Leon said:

    TMay completely fucked the Brexit process with her IDIOTIC and utterly unnecessary “red lines” and “citizens of nowhere” speech. That boxed the UK in from the start, along with her ineptly timed triggering of A50

    She was a truly dreadful prime minister. The worst of my lifetime. Yes Truss was a calamity but she only lasted 5 seconds, Truss was like a burst tyre on the motorway, scary but brief. TMay’s premiership was like a long horrible motorway pile up in the fog, eventually involving 389 vehicles and a downed helicopter, when she didn’t have to drive at all

    Those 6 months after the no-confidence vote were an insane period of politics. She could not pass her major legislation, but the party wasn't unified enough to kick her out or have her resign in favour of a clear successor, and the battles between remainiacs and hard core brexiters had not finished so no middle ground could be reached either.

    And yet because of the Corbyn factor the Tories still actually held poll leads for most of that period.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,078
    edited March 9
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    She REALLY did not read the room on Brexit

    Cameron tried to appease the nutters.
    May tried to appease the nutters.
    BoZo encouraged the nutters.
    Truss was a nutter.
    Richi is a dud.

    And tries to appease and encourages the nutters.
    And is a nutter.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,620
    edited March 9
    Two dogs to go, next Crazy the Scottish Collie, runner up last year - super fast - misses out by 0.3 seconds, second place

    Last to go, from Portugal - takes the first jump down, five faults.

    So the French dog wins with 35.0 secs clear
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,897
    edited March 9
    IanB2 said:

    According to Heywood, Mrs M knew the right thing to do was to push through a soft, consensus Brexit, but simply didn’t have the capital, and so caved to her nutters. A shame, since her legacy would have been better for having tried to do the right thing.

    Theresa May eventually came to that view but had already burnt her boats on a relatively soft Brexit at the start of her premiership. I think having sensibly supported Remain she felt she had to demonstrate her Leave credentials when a as meaningless as possible Brexit would also have been the least damaging one. By the time she realised that it was too late.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,539
    edited March 9
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Chris said:

    Why Theresa May, a good MP, should never have been prime minister
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/why-theresa-may-a-good-mp-should-never-have-been-prime-minister/ar-BB1jzC94

    Charles Moore wields the stiletto. Older PBers will recall that Boris's pal Charles Moore gave disastrous advice about saving Owen Paterson, leading to Boris's own departure and Moore's peerage.

    Executive summary: Because she wasn't a Brexiteer. (And after Brexit, things went wrong because of Covid.)
    A more thorough summary would be to say that as HS for so long she learned all the wrong lessons of government. Make your decisions without even a pretense at consultation and then present everyone with a fait accompli. Worked when she had a strong PM backing her (however reluctantly) but a total disaster when she got the top job. Absolutely no idea how to build support or a consensus.
    Yes. I know people don’t like me using the word autistic but I reckon she is on the spectrum (others may differ). This is not necessarily a handicap in politics, indeed it can offer advantages (single mindedness, work ethic, drive and ambition - cf Elon musk) but it also means you are likely to have a tin ear, be bad at team work, and you will not read the room

    She REALLY did not read the room on Brexit

    She could have built a consensus on a very soft Brexit that would have satisfied many Leavers and mollified many Remainers, at least as a holding position
    Nice thought but I'm not so sure. If she'd signed up to SM inc FOM that would have pissed off many millions of Leavers and the party would likely have dumped her. Therefore any Brexit you could describe as 'very soft' was never happening. But of course a better (softer if you like) deal than Johnson's was certainly possible.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    FF43 said:

    IanB2 said:

    According to Heywood, Mrs M knew the right thing to do was to push through a soft, consensus Brexit, but simply didn’t have the capital, and so caved to her nutters. A shame, since her legacy would have been better for having tried to do the right thing.

    Theresa May eventually came to that view but had already burnt her boats on a relatively soft Brexit at the start of her premiership. I think having sensibly supported Remain she felt she had to demonstrate her Leave credentials when a as meaningless as possible Brexit would also have been the least damaging one. By the time she realised that it was too late.
    Her fate was sealed by the citizens of nowhere speech, which she didn't write, but did deliver.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,620
    FF43 said:

    IanB2 said:

    According to Heywood, Mrs M knew the right thing to do was to push through a soft, consensus Brexit, but simply didn’t have the capital, and so caved to her nutters. A shame, since her legacy would have been better for having tried to do the right thing.

    Theresa May eventually came to that view but had already burnt her boats on a relatively soft Brexit at the start of her premiership. I think having sensibly supported Remain she felt she had to demonstrate her Leave credentials when a as meaningless as possible Brexit would also have been the least damaging one. By the time she realised that it was too late.
    Heywood tells it the other way around
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,329
    kinabalu said:

    But of course a better (softer if you like) deal than Johnson's was certainly possible.

    In the same way that gangrene is "better" than leprosy, maybe...
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,539
    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Wasn't aware of the event, but a quick look suggests the Irish constitution must contain some rather woolly, unnecessary fluff. A lean constitution wouldn't have this stuff to start with (not that the UK is in a position to judge constitutional leanness).


    Our Constitution is very lean.
    On the contrary, it's extensive and widely dispersed to boot, making it much harder to simply understand.
    I thought we didn't have one as such. More a mix of statute, common law, precedent, custom and etiquette etc?
    We have a Constitution, what we don't have is a codified Constitution (like practically everyone else). So when people say we don't have a written constitution its not quite correct, since statute, common law etc are written, just all over the place.

    Hence my saying we cannot criticise an overly long constitution, since at least theirs can still be broadly read in one document, rather than looking up various other things and trying to figure out which ones and which practices are deemed constitutionally significant.
    Ah ok. Yes I get your remark now.
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    Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,890
    an observation from the last thread which I was too late too participate in. I worry that we are painting pensioners as rich fat cats (I am not a pensioner as yet). The previous generation designated as boomer certainly for a lot had good pension provision and got to buy homes at a reasonable cost. However they are dying off bit by bit....my generation...generation x however largely missed out on defined benefit schemes and due to 2 decades of low interest rates most of our pots are not going to be huge and affording an index linked pension over 10k is going to be a pipe dream for most of us. In addition many of my generation like myself missed out on cheap housing as we ended up getting divorced in the late 90's to 2000's and then found a single salary wouldn't get us a mortgage even with the cash realised from our sale of half he house.

    I forsee when I retire being reviled as a rich pensioner because of the attitude being inculcated while I am struggling to make ends meet. As an example I am keeping an eye on my pension pot and have worked solidly since 1987, been paying contributions, and generally been top 30 to top 20% of earners. I am told I should be looking at an annuity of 5 to 7k a year non index linked if I dont take a lump sum. Hardly going to be having my mouth stuffed with gold on that but the idea of rich pensioners will still persist I don't doubt
  • Options
    MJWMJW Posts: 1,404
    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    According to Heywood, Mrs M knew the right thing to do was to push through a soft, consensus Brexit, but simply didn’t have the capital, and so caved to her nutters. A shame, since her legacy would have been better for having tried to do the right thing.

    I think she did try and do the right thing. But after losing the Con majority following a poor and personalised GE campaign she lacked the necessary authority.
    That wasn't the time she made the error though. After that election she was likely toast whatever, as the fantasists on the Tory right both hated her for screwing up the election and knew they had her in their pocket. Plus, the likes of Boris or anyone with ambitions to become PM knew they could undermine her by rejecting any deal.

    The big error was right after her acclamation by her party in 2016, when she was at her most powerful. Instead of the 'Citizens of Nowhere' speech she should have said that given the narrow but decisive result and the fact the winning side had left no plan, her priority was to bring people together and discharge the result and leave as quickly as possible by leaving the EU's political structures. So we could then decide our future by parties offering a more detailed choice of what came next.

    She could have then, should see so have wished, have campaigned in an election on ending free movement by leaving the SM that were worked out, having been the person who cleaned up the Brexit mess and showed a way forward. Meanwhile, Labour/the remain side would have likely torn itself to shreds between those unreconciled to Brexit and those who wanted to support May's offer as a path to a softer Brexit.

    Instead, she gave a speech that set up the Brexit conundrum that brought her down. Namely, how to get the promised deal that meets the fantasists' demands to exit everything while not screwing NI and the economy, so gets support of MPs for whom those are red lines? Furthermore, she effectively spawned the 2nd referendum movement by giving everyone who thought Brexit a terrible idea every reason to dig in against it, and vote and campaign accordingly. So you then ended up with the 2017 result, as lots voted Labour to avoid the Tories having carte blanche to pursue versions of Brexit they thought were beyond the pale.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,897
    IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    IanB2 said:

    According to Heywood, Mrs M knew the right thing to do was to push through a soft, consensus Brexit, but simply didn’t have the capital, and so caved to her nutters. A shame, since her legacy would have been better for having tried to do the right thing.

    Theresa May eventually came to that view but had already burnt her boats on a relatively soft Brexit at the start of her premiership. I think having sensibly supported Remain she felt she had to demonstrate her Leave credentials when a as meaningless as possible Brexit would also have been the least damaging one. By the time she realised that it was too late.
    Heywood tells it the other way around
    Well she did go for a hard Brexit and then tried to moderate it. This is on record. I'm not sure what Heywood is getting to say in that case.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,976
    edited March 9
    'Brexit Means Brexiit' was the line that destroyed Mrs May. She will join Farage Johnson Sunak and the rest in infamy.

    Perhaps unfair but no one likes a quisling and the loathing for Leavers is still visceral



  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,967
    Leon said:

    TMay completely fucked the Brexit process with her IDIOTIC and utterly unnecessary “red lines” and “citizens of nowhere” speech. That boxed the UK in from the start, along with her ineptly timed triggering of A50

    She was a truly dreadful prime minister. The worst of my lifetime. Yes Truss was a calamity but she only lasted 5 seconds, Truss was like a burst tyre on the motorway, scary but brief. TMay’s premiership was like a long horrible motorway pile up in the fog, eventually involving 389 vehicles and a downed helicopter, when she didn’t have to drive at all

    You voted for the fog mind.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    MJW said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    According to Heywood, Mrs M knew the right thing to do was to push through a soft, consensus Brexit, but simply didn’t have the capital, and so caved to her nutters. A shame, since her legacy would have been better for having tried to do the right thing.

    I think she did try and do the right thing. But after losing the Con majority following a poor and personalised GE campaign she lacked the necessary authority.
    That wasn't the time she made the error though. After that election she was likely toast whatever, as the fantasists on the Tory right both hated her for screwing up the election and knew they had her in their pocket. Plus, the likes of Boris or anyone with ambitions to become PM knew they could undermine her by rejecting any deal.

    The big error was right after her acclamation by her party in 2016, when she was at her most powerful. Instead of the 'Citizens of Nowhere' speech she should have said that given the narrow but decisive result and the fact the winning side had left no plan, her priority was to bring people together and discharge the result and leave as quickly as possible by leaving the EU's political structures. So we could then decide our future by parties offering a more detailed choice of what came next.

    She could have then, should see so have wished, have campaigned in an election on ending free movement by leaving the SM that were worked out, having been the person who cleaned up the Brexit mess and showed a way forward. Meanwhile, Labour/the remain side would have likely torn itself to shreds between those unreconciled to Brexit and those who wanted to support May's offer as a path to a softer Brexit.

    Instead, she gave a speech that set up the Brexit conundrum that brought her down. Namely, how to get the promised deal that meets the fantasists' demands to exit everything while not screwing NI and the economy, so gets support of MPs for whom those are red lines? Furthermore, she effectively spawned the 2nd referendum movement by giving everyone who thought Brexit a terrible idea every reason to dig in against it, and vote and campaign accordingly. So you then ended up with the 2017 result, as lots voted Labour to avoid the Tories having carte blanche to pursue versions of Brexit they thought were beyond the pale.
    Eloquent and exactly right

    If only she had done that. She had the chance. Her failure to see this was a catastrophic unforced error
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    Roger said:

    'Brexit Means Brexiit' was the line that destroyed Mrs May. She will join Farage Johnson Sunak and the rest in infamy.

    Perhaps unfair but no one likes a quisling and the loathing for Leavers is still visceral



    And yet the latest polls show the desire to rejoin is beginning to fall away. We are getting used to Brexit. Ok you’re not but then you still don’t understand how planes stay in the air


    4a/ Are there storm clouds gathering for the ‘re-join’ voice in our Brexit tracker? The gap narrows this week for the first time in a long time.

    * All *
    Re-join: 46% (-4)
    Stay Out: 34% (+1)
    DK or not voting: 20% (+3)

    * Exc DKs / won’t vote *
    Re-join: 58% (-2)
    Stay Out: 42% (+2)

    https://x.com/wethinkpolling/status/1766116864864752113?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    This process will continue. We will get accustomed to being outside the EU and the idea of full fat rejoin and yielding all our sovereignty will come to seem bizarre

    I imagine there will be constant tweaks to our trading terms however. This is what happens with Switzerland. They have no desire to join the EU but that means they have to keep adjusting to the huge trading bloc that surrounds them
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 828
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Chris said:

    Why Theresa May, a good MP, should never have been prime minister
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/why-theresa-may-a-good-mp-should-never-have-been-prime-minister/ar-BB1jzC94

    Charles Moore wields the stiletto. Older PBers will recall that Boris's pal Charles Moore gave disastrous advice about saving Owen Paterson, leading to Boris's own departure and Moore's peerage.

    Executive summary: Because she wasn't a Brexiteer. (And after Brexit, things went wrong because of Covid.)
    A more thorough summary would be to say that as HS for so long she learned all the wrong lessons of government. Make your decisions without even a pretense at consultation and then present everyone with a fait accompli. Worked when she had a strong PM backing her (however reluctantly) but a total disaster when she got the top job. Absolutely no idea how to build support or a consensus.
    Yes. I know people don’t like me using the word autistic but I reckon she is on the spectrum (others may differ). This is not necessarily a handicap in politics, indeed it can offer advantages (single mindedness, work ethic, drive and ambition - cf Elon musk) but it also means you are likely to have a tin ear, be bad at team work, and you will not read the room

    She REALLY did not read the room on Brexit

    She could have built a consensus on a very soft Brexit that would have satisfied many Leavers and mollified many Remainers, at least as a holding position
    No Boris won in 2019 on an even harder Brexit than May's, an ultra soft Brexit only meant Farage overtaking the Tories
    I think you're right - May had little choice but to trigger A50 when she did, but from that point on the competing pressures meant that achieving an 'end state' Brexit of whatever form was impossible.

    In retrospect, Boris's strategy was probably the only one that could have worked - negotiate a minimal (some might say bad) deal, and build on it gradually from there. We already have the NI Protocol, and the full border controls & single trade window have been delayed five (or is it now six?) times. They're now due to start in October, but if Sunak bottles a May election they'll likely be delayed again to avoid clashing with the campaign...

    What comes next? Agreement on financial services passporting & recognition of professional qualifications, presumably with some form of alignment in those areas. Erasmus and Europol. After that... EEA? There's certainly plenty of scope for the Labour government to improve on the current situation!
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,736
    I was involved in an action day today. Just to show how out of touch some people are and that we aren't typical of the average voter one canvassee (if there is such a word) was keen that we get rid of Boris as PM.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,753
    kle4 said:

    Wasn't aware of the event, but a quick look suggests the Irish constitution must contain some rather woolly, unnecessary fluff. A lean constitution wouldn't have this stuff to start with (not that the UK is in a position to judge constitutional leanness).




    Interesting. It's quite possible of course that if the UK population was asked this sort of question question they might quite like it:

    "Do you agree that while women should be free to make their own decisions about working, the state and society should make it economically possible for women to be full time carers for children in their early years".
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,756
    Re: Irish Referendums 2024

    > First, thanks to Alanbrooke for bird-dogging this, certainly by reminding yours truly that they are a thing, with actual voting done and results pending.

    > On point re: advisability of putting questions to voters that are (or appear) "not serious and simple to understand". Valid point, but only to a point. By their vary nature, promulgating and amending national, federal, state local constitutions and charters - fundamental laws with primacy over mere statutes - require (or should IMHO) going to the basis of constitutional legitimacy.

    For example, US Constitution and subsequent amendments required no only approval of Constitution and subsequent Congresses, AND also ratification by super-majority of states via legislative action (or state conventions in case of Prohibition repeal).

    US states have similar process, with voter ratification being requirement for final enactment of state constitutions and constitutional amendments.

    > In my experience, of over thirty years in state where voting by actual voters on constitutional amendments, initiatives and referendums via statewide and local ballot measures is commonplace (if not exactly ho-hum) the idea that voter are easily or even frequently confused by serious, complex issues is a CROCK of lukewarm possum piss.

    From what I've observed, about 99.46% of voters, at least those who bother to give a flying you-know-what in first place, DO figure it out. Either because somebody lets 'em in on what's what, or (more frequently) they get their on there own.

    There may be differences in perception (as opposed to comprehension) that can come into play, especially in close contests. For example, here in WA State, the rule in thumb is that voters who are confused (say by competing campaign claims) or conflicted, have some tendency to end up voting No (or equivalent) so groups, interests, etc. against the measure often work at throwing clouds of dust (if not dirt) about.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,078
    Woeful blitz defence.
    Gave away a penalty using it whilst going backwards. Which you don't do.
    Now a try using it about as poorly as could be.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,950
    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    'Brexit Means Brexiit' was the line that destroyed Mrs May. She will join Farage Johnson Sunak and the rest in infamy.

    Perhaps unfair but no one likes a quisling and the loathing for Leavers is still visceral



    And yet the latest polls show the desire to rejoin is beginning to fall away. We are getting used to Brexit. Ok you’re not but then you still don’t understand how planes stay in the air


    4a/ Are there storm clouds gathering for the ‘re-join’ voice in our Brexit tracker? The gap narrows this week for the first time in a long time.

    * All *
    Re-join: 46% (-4)
    Stay Out: 34% (+1)
    DK or not voting: 20% (+3)

    * Exc DKs / won’t vote *
    Re-join: 58% (-2)
    Stay Out: 42% (+2)

    https://x.com/wethinkpolling/status/1766116864864752113?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    This process will continue. We will get accustomed to being outside the EU and the idea of full fat rejoin and yielding all our sovereignty will come to seem bizarre

    I imagine there will be constant tweaks to our trading terms however. This is what happens with Switzerland. They have no desire to join the EU but that means they have to keep adjusting to the huge trading bloc that surrounds them
    Perhaps but so will the notion of "Global Britain" (whatever that means). We might end up with the not wholly unsatisfactory situation of close economic and trading alignment without the political nuances of being in the EU club. You might almost call it a Common Market rather than a Single Market arrangement - the economic benefits of relatively aligned and loose trade without the four freedoms including FoM which caused so many problems.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,539
    edited March 9
    No, you're all wrong on Mrs May and Brexit. The main issue wasn't her rhetoric or her mindset, it was the domestic politics of it. A soft Brexit meant SM which meant FOM. No Tory PM could have got that through the Brexit parliament and stayed PM. A Labour PM could but not a Tory one.

    Why? Because a deal like that would have run counter to where the party's members and voters and a critical mass of their MPs were. It would have been VONC and out. She knew that. As would any other Tory politician in her place at that time in those circumstances.

    Soft Brexit = Pipedream.
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,950
    edited March 9
    Nearly evening all :)

    I've tried to make sense of the Irish constitutional referenda today - there are obviously nuances at work which escape me. Some parts of Ireland remain socially very conservative and it's clear the Catholic Church has played a big role in the rejection of the proposals. Some will argue the likes of Aontu and Independent Ireland represent a wider political future - both socially conservative but the former more interested in strong public services while Independent Ireland is more of a small state tax cutting party.

    Could we see a similar evolution here?
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    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 828
    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    'Brexit Means Brexiit' was the line that destroyed Mrs May. She will join Farage Johnson Sunak and the rest in infamy.

    Perhaps unfair but no one likes a quisling and the loathing for Leavers is still visceral



    And yet the latest polls show the desire to rejoin is beginning to fall away. We are getting used to Brexit. Ok you’re not but then you still don’t understand how planes stay in the air


    4a/ Are there storm clouds gathering for the ‘re-join’ voice in our Brexit tracker? The gap narrows this week for the first time in a long time.

    * All *
    Re-join: 46% (-4)
    Stay Out: 34% (+1)
    DK or not voting: 20% (+3)

    * Exc DKs / won’t vote *
    Re-join: 58% (-2)
    Stay Out: 42% (+2)

    https://x.com/wethinkpolling/status/1766116864864752113?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    This process will continue. We will get accustomed to being outside the EU and the idea of full fat rejoin and yielding all our sovereignty will come to seem bizarre

    I imagine there will be constant tweaks to our trading terms however. This is what happens with Switzerland. They have no desire to join the EU but that means they have to keep adjusting to the huge trading bloc that surrounds them
    Perhaps but so will the notion of "Global Britain" (whatever that means). We might end up with the not wholly unsatisfactory situation of close economic and trading alignment without the political nuances of being in the EU club. You might almost call it a Common Market rather than a Single Market arrangement - the economic benefits of relatively aligned and loose trade without the four freedoms including FoM which caused so many problems.
    Did FoM really cause so many problems?

    If so, it doesn't seem to me that Brexit has fixed any of them:


    (https://public.tableau.com/views/Netmigration-December2023/2?:language=en-GB&:embed=y&:sid=&:embed_code_version=3&:loadOrderID=1&:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link)

    And, of course, there were substantial benefits from FoM - not least enabling many more UK citizens to work and study abroad. Removing FoM is perhaps the most painful Brexit loss for a large number of people.
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    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,159
    stodge said:

    Leon said:

    Roger said:

    'Brexit Means Brexiit' was the line that destroyed Mrs May. She will join Farage Johnson Sunak and the rest in infamy.

    Perhaps unfair but no one likes a quisling and the loathing for Leavers is still visceral



    And yet the latest polls show the desire to rejoin is beginning to fall away. We are getting used to Brexit. Ok you’re not but then you still don’t understand how planes stay in the air


    4a/ Are there storm clouds gathering for the ‘re-join’ voice in our Brexit tracker? The gap narrows this week for the first time in a long time.

    * All *
    Re-join: 46% (-4)
    Stay Out: 34% (+1)
    DK or not voting: 20% (+3)

    * Exc DKs / won’t vote *
    Re-join: 58% (-2)
    Stay Out: 42% (+2)

    https://x.com/wethinkpolling/status/1766116864864752113?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    This process will continue. We will get accustomed to being outside the EU and the idea of full fat rejoin and yielding all our sovereignty will come to seem bizarre

    I imagine there will be constant tweaks to our trading terms however. This is what happens with Switzerland. They have no desire to join the EU but that means they have to keep adjusting to the huge trading bloc that surrounds them
    Perhaps but so will the notion of "Global Britain" (whatever that means). We might end up with the not wholly unsatisfactory situation of close economic and trading alignment without the political nuances of being in the EU club. You might almost call it a Common Market rather than a Single Market arrangement - the economic benefits of relatively aligned and loose trade without the four freedoms including FoM which caused so many problems.
    A 2% shift from 60/40? I think the position has been remarkably stable for several years.

    https://wethink.report/data-hub/brexit-sentiment/

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,620
    Winner of Scruffts is thirteen-year old Airedale Labrador cross Diesel, who taught himself to detect oncoming epilepsy fits.
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    MJWMJW Posts: 1,404
    Leon said:

    MJW said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    According to Heywood, Mrs M knew the right thing to do was to push through a soft, consensus Brexit, but simply didn’t have the capital, and so caved to her nutters. A shame, since her legacy would have been better for having tried to do the right thing.

    I think she did try and do the right thing. But after losing the Con majority following a poor and personalised GE campaign she lacked the necessary authority.
    That wasn't the time she made the error though. After that election she was likely toast whatever, as the fantasists on the Tory right both hated her for screwing up the election and knew they had her in their pocket. Plus, the likes of Boris or anyone with ambitions to become PM knew they could undermine her by rejecting any deal.

    The big error was right after her acclamation by her party in 2016, when she was at her most powerful. Instead of the 'Citizens of Nowhere' speech she should have said that given the narrow but decisive result and the fact the winning side had left no plan, her priority was to bring people together and discharge the result and leave as quickly as possible by leaving the EU's political structures. So we could then decide our future by parties offering a more detailed choice of what came next.

    She could have then, should see so have wished, have campaigned in an election on ending free movement by leaving the SM that were worked out, having been the person who cleaned up the Brexit mess and showed a way forward. Meanwhile, Labour/the remain side would have likely torn itself to shreds between those unreconciled to Brexit and those who wanted to support May's offer as a path to a softer Brexit.

    Instead, she gave a speech that set up the Brexit conundrum that brought her down. Namely, how to get the promised deal that meets the fantasists' demands to exit everything while not screwing NI and the economy, so gets support of MPs for whom those are red lines? Furthermore, she effectively spawned the 2nd referendum movement by giving everyone who thought Brexit a terrible idea every reason to dig in against it, and vote and campaign accordingly. So you then ended up with the 2017 result, as lots voted Labour to avoid the Tories having carte blanche to pursue versions of Brexit they thought were beyond the pale.
    Eloquent and exactly right

    If only she had done that. She had the chance. Her failure to see this was a catastrophic unforced error
    Thanks! I think in part it may have been part of the post-referendum panic/shock. There were a lot of terrible decisions at that time (and arguably since), which came from old certainties and methods being overturned. And that led to some, including May, throwing the baby out with the bathwater and thinking they had to/were reshaping Britain around some lost radical folk wisdom. Rather than knowing how to add up, taking the direct route to what you want to achieve, and looking for the widest possible support.
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