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Will George Galloway be purring tonight? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,736
edited March 12 in General
imageWill George Galloway be purring tonight? – politicalbetting.com

If the betting is correct then overnight George Galloway will become an MP again, this time for a fifth different constituency. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a result similar to the 1992 Inverness, Nairn, and Lochaber result where the winning candidate won with 26\% of the vote and a mere 3.4% covered the top four candidates.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,789
    edited February 29
    George Galloway purring?

    😂😂😂
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,078
    Second like someone else.
    Who knows?
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,327
    That last tweet is typical of the pro-Russian psychosis that some on the left show. As we saw on here.

    Galloway winning would be both funny and terrible.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,757
    edited February 29
    Too hard to call imo without unspun information from up north.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,327

    Too hard to call imo without unspun information from up north.

    IMO info won't really help; it's a very chaotic by-election, with the twin variables of a suspended candidate on the ballot, and Galloway. I doubt anyone really knows much outside very localised info.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,327
    One for @Sandpit and @Malmesbury :

    A startup claims to have developed a very efficient jet engine that could potentially be used as the first stage of a rocket. Early days, and all that, but they have small-scale prototypes.

    https://twitter.com/k2pilot/status/1763007610993991722
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,056
    I would hope the people of Rochdale are smart enough not to vote for a malevolent narcissist like Galloway.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,757
    edited February 29
    School absence fines for parents to rise by £20
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-68420275

    My first memory of junior school is being surprised when my father took me out of class one afternoon, with the head's permission, to go and see Fantasia at the Odeon.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,589
    Parliament needs Galloway back like it needs Bercow to return as Speaker. Appalling man who has got worse as he has got older. Surely the people of Rochdale are better than that.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,484

    Too hard to call imo without unspun information from up north.

    IMO info won't really help; it's a very chaotic by-election, with the twin variables of a suspended candidate on the ballot, and Galloway. I doubt anyone really knows much outside very localised info.
    Two suspended candidates.

    the Green candidate dared to be not sufficiently pro Palestine in some tweets so is now just a paper candidate.

    Wouldn't have saved his deposit anyway.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,484
    TimS said:

    I would hope the people of Rochdale are smart enough not to vote for a malevolent narcissist like Galloway.

    "I would hope the people of Rochdale are smart enough not to vote for someone I don't approve of"
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,484
    edited February 29

    Too hard to call imo without unspun information from up north.

    IMO info won't really help; it's a very chaotic by-election, with the twin variables of a suspended candidate on the ballot, and Galloway. I doubt anyone really knows much outside very localised info.
    TBH if it had not been on breakfast news this morning I wouldn't have even realised it was happening. Completely forgettable.
  • Options
    TimS said:

    I would hope the people of Rochdale are smart enough not to vote for a malevolent narcissist like Galloway.

    Galloway appears to have captured the hearts and minds of younger and crankier voters. He says all the right things and when you Google him to find out who he is you find him sticking it to the Americans in Congress. Yay!

    For anyone with a brain, Galloway is disgusting. But this is Rochdale. And the candidate who was supposed to win got defrocked. Perhaps postal votes already in will win it. Or voters coming out in desperation.

    Sadly, I expect that George Galloway will be the latest chapter in the book of Rochdale's shame.
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    DavidL said:

    Parliament needs Galloway back like it needs Bercow to return as Speaker. Appalling man who has got worse as he has got older. Surely the people of Rochdale are better than that.

    You've never been to Rochdale I see.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    This fucking climate. Still February. Cold dismal rain
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    Parliament needs Galloway back like it needs Bercow to return as Speaker. Appalling man who has got worse as he has got older. Surely the people of Rochdale are better than that.

    One of the ironies is that Ali was rightly suspended for saying foolish nasty wrong stuff.

    And the effect of that has been to open the door to someone far far worse.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,484
    Personally I hope Galloway loses for using "Y'all" in that tweet.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,194
    Leon said:

    This fucking climate. Still February. Cold dismal rain

    On the contrary. Abnormally and frighteningly warm, even dry up here.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,348
    On the previous thread, someone suggested that the Trump immunity claim is "a crazy claim, but one that should be ruled on by the Supreme Court".

    The court could indeed already have ruled, as did the federal appeals court, by summarily dismissing the appeal without a hearing.

    They chose to hear arguments in the case - something they can only do if they believe the case has a reasonable chance of prevailing.

    It is an abysmal lack of judgment.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,327

    School absence fines for parents to rise by £20
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-68420275

    I was talking to an acquaintance about this the other day. He and his wife both work (he claimed joint salary of around £70k), and have two young kids. He said a quote for an all-inclusive two-week foreign holiday this summer was between six and eight grand - far more than they can afford. He said that his parents were not well off, but managed at least one foreign holiday a year.

    I have heard similar complaints from other parents. A very quick 'win' for any government would be to allow children one week off school term-time. Yes, I know that has consequences, but I also think it will be popular with everyone except teachers and price-gouging travel firms.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    I’m done with this climate. I’ve now had over 9 hours of it. Endless

    I must surely flee
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,170

    School absence fines for parents to rise by £20
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-68420275

    My first memory of junior school is being surprised when my father took me out of class one afternoon, with the head's permission, to go and see Fantasia at the Odeon.

    Liking Fantasia was among the reasons a girl-friend gave for dumping me. It showed we had ‘incompatible’ taste in films.
    And good morning everybody; another grey day here, but not as bad as yesterday!
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,194

    One for @Sandpit and @Malmesbury :

    A startup claims to have developed a very efficient jet engine that could potentially be used as the first stage of a rocket. Early days, and all that, but they have small-scale prototypes.

    https://twitter.com/k2pilot/status/1763007610993991722

    Interesting notion - decoupling the compressor and turbine stages to get the gearing right, so to speak, as I understand it. Has nobody else thought of it before? Good for them if not!
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    TazTaz Posts: 11,484
    Rachel Reeves is managing expectation.

    She's a smart operator. We have an era of crap politicians. She does shine out a little bit.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news/labour-in-power-faces-dire-economic-inheritance-says-rachel-reeves/ar-BB1j3vBK?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=0af78ca16ae44370a292537b1ea633e6&ei=29
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,194

    School absence fines for parents to rise by £20
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-68420275

    My first memory of junior school is being surprised when my father took me out of class one afternoon, with the head's permission, to go and see Fantasia at the Odeon.

    Liking Fantasia was among the reasons a girl-friend gave for dumping me. It showed we had ‘incompatible’ taste in films.
    And good morning everybody; another grey day here, but not as bad as yesterday!
    Good morning! Bright, sunny, blue skies here!
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,056
    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    I would hope the people of Rochdale are smart enough not to vote for a malevolent narcissist like Galloway.

    "I would hope the people of Rochdale are smart enough not to vote for someone I don't approve of"
    Are you serious? There is, you know, a distinction between politicians we don’t agree with and politicians who are active propagandists for hostile foreign powers.

    Isn’t there?
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,327
    Carnyx said:

    One for @Sandpit and @Malmesbury :

    A startup claims to have developed a very efficient jet engine that could potentially be used as the first stage of a rocket. Early days, and all that, but they have small-scale prototypes.

    https://twitter.com/k2pilot/status/1763007610993991722

    Interesting notion - decoupling the compressor and turbine stages to get the gearing right, so to speak, as I understand it. Has nobody else thought of it before? Good for them if not!
    Yes, with 'conventional' jet engines.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geared_turbofan

    This is the first I've heard of them being decoupled to this degree. An interesting notion.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,054
    Leon said:

    I’m done with this climate. I’ve now had over 9 hours of it. Endless

    I must surely flee

    There is no such thing as bad weather. Just unsuitable clothing or nothing meaningful to do.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    ON topic, I’m reading the biography of Simon Bolivar, the liberator of South America

    His dad was quite something. He raped anything that moved - mainly chambermaids and slaves but also the wives of his best friends

    It got so bad the church sent out a special mission to investigate him. The church decided that all the women were lying despite their identical accounts - yet nonetheless issued him a stern warning to stop raping so many women

    It’s difficult to decide who comes out of this story as the hero
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,348
    DavidL said:

    The Supreme Court decision to grant review of Trump's immunity claim, and in a few months at that, means that none of the criminal trials will be concluded by November. It is a truly shocking decision given the baseless arguments which were unanimously and contemptuously dismissed by the Court of Appeal.

    There will come a time when this Court and its members will be held to account for its destruction of democracy. Or there won't be any democracy left to save.

    Taken all in all, the Roberts Court is IMO as bad as that of Chief Justice Taney.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,176

    One for @Sandpit and @Malmesbury :

    A startup claims to have developed a very efficient jet engine that could potentially be used as the first stage of a rocket. Early days, and all that, but they have small-scale prototypes.

    https://twitter.com/k2pilot/status/1763007610993991722

    Looks interesting. Now that returning a first stage safely to Earth appears to be a solved problem, it opens up other options for propulsion that can save large amounts of fuel vs conventional rocket motors. If you can make a jet engine-based first stage that can take a rocket to say 60,000ft at Mach 3, then fire a second stage to orbit, then you’d save a fortune over time. Think of a hybrid between a current Falcon 9 and the Virgin Galactic setup, but unmanned.

    One of my favourite rocket stats was that Saturn V had lost 5% of its launch weight by the time it had cleared the tower. The weight is all fuel, and more weight needs even more fuel to carry it off the pad. You’d never choose a vertical launch if other options existed.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,056
    Leon said:

    I’m done with this climate. I’ve now had over 9 hours of it. Endless

    I must surely flee

    I’ve found myself hoping for shit cold weather this month, which is an unusual position to be in. We’re going skiing at Easter and the Alps badly need repeated dumps of snow between now and then. The best pattern for that is a chilly wet North Westerly over Western Europe.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,484
    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    TimS said:

    I would hope the people of Rochdale are smart enough not to vote for a malevolent narcissist like Galloway.

    "I would hope the people of Rochdale are smart enough not to vote for someone I don't approve of"
    Are you serious? There is, you know, a distinction between politicians we don’t agree with and politicians who are active propagandists for hostile foreign powers.

    Isn’t there?
    I am serious. I am sure Galloway would not agree with that description.

    I do agree he is a narcissist. I would not vote for him.

    However your comment does strike of "vote for whom I approve of"
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,789
    edited February 29
    Ouch, ouch, ouch.

    When Everton last won a trophy the father of Jayden Danns was still in school.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,348

    Carnyx said:

    One for @Sandpit and @Malmesbury :

    A startup claims to have developed a very efficient jet engine that could potentially be used as the first stage of a rocket. Early days, and all that, but they have small-scale prototypes.

    https://twitter.com/k2pilot/status/1763007610993991722

    Interesting notion - decoupling the compressor and turbine stages to get the gearing right, so to speak, as I understand it. Has nobody else thought of it before? Good for them if not!
    Yes, with 'conventional' jet engines.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geared_turbofan

    This is the first I've heard of them being decoupled to this degree. An interesting notion.
    No one has used an electric motor to drive the compressor, though ?
    A simple, but profound innovation.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,694
    IanB2 said:

    Peston ( I know) suggesting Hunt is to abolish non dom status

    Given that Labour has spent that money several times over and it props up some of the few remaining promises of significance in its intended manifesto, that would be political genius from the Tories, even if they do it in a way that ensures nothing changes until after the election
    🙂

    But Labour no longer have a policy to scrap non dom status. See my previous post.

    Under their new flag “fiscal prudence or death” Labour realise they cannot get scrapping nom dom bringing in assured promise of money past the OBR and City as confirmed extra money every year, and realise the damage it will cause scrapping it, so Labour are now keeping it, only calling it another name to pretend they scrapped it as promised.

    Rather than “political genius” from Tories, is the truth here a sign of their struggle and desperation to cobble together legitimate funding for the tax cuts?
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,126
    Carnyx said:

    One for @Sandpit and @Malmesbury :

    A startup claims to have developed a very efficient jet engine that could potentially be used as the first stage of a rocket. Early days, and all that, but they have small-scale prototypes.

    https://twitter.com/k2pilot/status/1763007610993991722

    Interesting notion - decoupling the compressor and turbine stages to get the gearing right, so to speak, as I understand it. Has nobody else thought of it before? Good for them if not!
    Quite a few. Bizjets like Learjets, Falcons, etc. have used geared turbofans for ages.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,613
    Leon said:

    This fucking climate. Still February. Cold dismal rain

    I quite like late February. Largely for the contrast with January. Light in the morning when I wake up, light in the evening when I leave work. First signs of growth in the gardens and parks. A bit of warmth on the face.
  • Options
    Leon said:

    I’m done with this climate. I’ve now had over 9 hours of it. Endless

    I must surely flee

    Yes, Air France biz is the best way to flee.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,484
    Leon said:

    ON topic, I’m reading the biography of Simon Bolivar, the liberator of South America

    His dad was quite something. He raped anything that moved - mainly chambermaids and slaves but also the wives of his best friends

    It got so bad the church sent out a special mission to investigate him. The church decided that all the women were lying despite their identical accounts - yet nonetheless issued him a stern warning to stop raping so many women

    It’s difficult to decide who comes out of this story as the hero

    Was he a liberator or an enslaver ?

    Not attempting to be controversial, just interested. It is a part of history I know little about.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,197
    Welcome to the fourscore club BigG of North Wales

    … we've been expecting you
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    I’m done with this climate. I’ve now had over 9 hours of it. Endless

    I must surely flee

    There is no such thing as bad weather. Just unsuitable clothing or nothing meaningful to do.
    A motto coined by a Norwegian, I believe

    There is definitely “bad weather” - cold, wet, maybe dark - and I detest it

    No matter how many nifty layers you wear, the mood sinks when you stare into the murk of a northern February

    Let us advance upon the new world
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,176

    Carnyx said:

    One for @Sandpit and @Malmesbury :

    A startup claims to have developed a very efficient jet engine that could potentially be used as the first stage of a rocket. Early days, and all that, but they have small-scale prototypes.

    https://twitter.com/k2pilot/status/1763007610993991722

    Interesting notion - decoupling the compressor and turbine stages to get the gearing right, so to speak, as I understand it. Has nobody else thought of it before? Good for them if not!
    Yes, with 'conventional' jet engines.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geared_turbofan

    This is the first I've heard of them being decoupled to this degree. An interesting notion.
    The geared fan has been a long-gestation project among the commercial airline manufacturers, and is now finally in production, but there’s not actually a lot of gearing in it, and the fuel efficiency gains are not quite what they expected. Interesting to see if everyone does it for the next generation of engines.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,348
    edited February 29
    Leon said:

    I’m done with this climate. I’ve now had over 9 hours of it. Endless

    I must surely flee

    Haven't you gone to a rainforest ?
    There's a clue in the name.

    Oh, that's still in the future.
    You're just whingeing about the normal.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,176
    On topic, please anyone but Galloway. His politics are not a good road to go down, to put it mildly, and shouldn’t be rewarded.
  • Options
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    This fucking climate. Still February. Cold dismal rain

    I quite like late February. Largely for the contrast with January. Light in the morning when I wake up, light in the evening when I leave work. First signs of growth in the gardens and parks. A bit of warmth on the face.
    All true, but according to my solar panel stats, we had about as much actual sunshine in February as in January. This simply isn't on.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,694
    I’m now quite sure in my mind there is a lot of politics at play over timing of the next general election, between those who want Tories to get the worst possible result, perhaps wipe out, who talk up waiting till later in the year, and those who care about the party and wish to give the Conservatives the best possible result to recover from, suggesting this is May 2nd before sailing into choppy waters through the summer and autumn.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,654
    "there was a boost for pensioners on Wednesday as it emerged the pensions triple lock is set to be included in the Conservative Party’s next election manifesto."

    Telegraph


    I'm shocked I tell you, shocked...
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    I’m done with this climate. I’ve now had over 9 hours of it. Endless

    I must surely flee

    Haven't you gone to a rainforest ?
    There's a clue in the name.
    I’m having an interregnum in Camden. Briefly

    It’s a cruel reminder of the winter I largely escaped

    I go to the jungle soon. I don’t mind rain so much if it’s warm. I prefer sun of course, but warm rain can be meditative

    Cold rain is just grim. Cold rain in the dark is satanic
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,194
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    I’m done with this climate. I’ve now had over 9 hours of it. Endless

    I must surely flee

    Haven't you gone to a rainforest ?
    There's a clue in the name.
    I’m having an interregnum in Camden. Briefly

    It’s a cruel reminder of the winter I largely escaped

    I go to the jungle soon. I don’t mind rain so much if it’s warm. I prefer sun of course, but warm rain can be meditative

    Cold rain is just grim. Cold rain in the dark is satanic
    Nothing a Barbour and an Irish fisherman's tweed wool hat can't cope with.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    ON topic, I’m reading the biography of Simon Bolivar, the liberator of South America

    His dad was quite something. He raped anything that moved - mainly chambermaids and slaves but also the wives of his best friends

    It got so bad the church sent out a special mission to investigate him. The church decided that all the women were lying despite their identical accounts - yet nonetheless issued him a stern warning to stop raping so many women

    It’s difficult to decide who comes out of this story as the hero

    Was he a liberator or an enslaver ?

    Not attempting to be controversial, just interested. It is a part of history I know little about.
    Dunno yet. I’ve only got as far as his birth, from his young beautiful mother and much older crueller rapist aristo dad

    So far I’m rooting for the dad
  • Options

    IanB2 said:

    Peston ( I know) suggesting Hunt is to abolish non dom status

    Given that Labour has spent that money several times over and it props up some of the few remaining promises of significance in its intended manifesto, that would be political genius from the Tories, even if they do it in a way that ensures nothing changes until after the election
    🙂

    But Labour no longer have a policy to scrap non dom status. See my previous post.

    Under their new flag “fiscal prudence or death” Labour realise they cannot get scrapping nom dom bringing in assured promise of money past the OBR and City as confirmed extra money every year, and realise the damage it will cause scrapping it, so Labour are now keeping it, only calling it another name to pretend they scrapped it as promised.

    Rather than “political genius” from Tories, is the truth here a sign of their struggle and desperation to cobble together legitimate funding for the tax cuts?
    Much more that than 4D chess. The reality is that with borrowing as high as it currently is, tax cuts are a joke anyway.

    Unfortunately, they are the lucky rabbit's foot for the Conservatives. (Sorry for bringing it up, Moon), so they have to happen, whatever the effect on the rabbit (sorry again).
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,803
    Leon said:

    ON topic, I’m reading the biography of Simon Bolivar, the liberator of South America

    His dad was quite something. He raped anything that moved - mainly chambermaids and slaves but also the wives of his best friends

    It got so bad the church sent out a special mission to investigate him. The church decided that all the women were lying despite their identical accounts - yet nonetheless issued him a stern warning to stop raping so many women

    It’s difficult to decide who comes out of this story as the hero

    I read one about a year ago by Marie Arana. He was a driven man surrounded by slimy scumbags who ultimately stopped a unified latin america ( excluding portugese speaking Brazil ). Hard to know if his vision was just undeliverable or if the local caudillos nobbled it.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,803
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,613

    School absence fines for parents to rise by £20
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-68420275

    I was talking to an acquaintance about this the other day. He and his wife both work (he claimed joint salary of around £70k), and have two young kids. He said a quote for an all-inclusive two-week foreign holiday this summer was between six and eight grand - far more than they can afford. He said that his parents were not well off, but managed at least one foreign holiday a year.

    I have heard similar complaints from other parents. A very quick 'win' for any government would be to allow children one week off school term-time. Yes, I know that has consequences, but I also think it will be popular with everyone except teachers and price-gouging travel firms.
    I differ from you here. I don't really see all-inclusive foreign holidays as a middle class right. I had a fairly comfortable suburban middle class upbringing, and I was an only child, but certainly wouldn't have expected holidays like that. And I'm pretty comfortably off now, but wouldn't expect to do holidays like that now as a parent. We did go abroad sometimes, but it would be a Eurocamp or something like that.
    And holiday companies aren't gouging, they're just responding to demand. I think they'd be very pleased to have more customers for the out-of-school-holiday weeks.
  • Options
    Why would he need to backflip?
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    I’m done with this climate. I’ve now had over 9 hours of it. Endless

    I must surely flee

    Haven't you gone to a rainforest ?
    There's a clue in the name.
    I’m having an interregnum in Camden. Briefly

    It’s a cruel reminder of the winter I largely escaped

    I go to the jungle soon. I don’t mind rain so much if it’s warm. I prefer sun of course, but warm rain can be meditative

    Cold rain is just grim. Cold rain in the dark is satanic
    Nothing a Barbour and an Irish fisherman's tweed wool hat can't cope with.
    Or, a flight to Cartagena
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,803

    Why would he need to backflip?
    Because he does.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,694

    IanB2 said:

    Peston ( I know) suggesting Hunt is to abolish non dom status

    Given that Labour has spent that money several times over and it props up some of the few remaining promises of significance in its intended manifesto, that would be political genius from the Tories, even if they do it in a way that ensures nothing changes until after the election
    🙂

    But Labour no longer have a policy to scrap non dom status. See my previous post.

    Under their new flag “fiscal prudence or death” Labour realise they cannot get scrapping nom dom bringing in assured promise of money past the OBR and City as confirmed extra money every year, and realise the damage it will cause scrapping it, so Labour are now keeping it, only calling it another name to pretend they scrapped it as promised.

    Rather than “political genius” from Tories, is the truth here a sign of their struggle and desperation to cobble together legitimate funding for the tax cuts?
    Much more that than 4D chess. The reality is that with borrowing as high as it currently is, tax cuts are a joke anyway.

    Unfortunately, they are the lucky rabbit's foot for the Conservatives. (Sorry for bringing it up, Moon), so they have to happen, whatever the effect on the rabbit (sorry again).
    Do Sunak and Hunt intend to cut tax or NI in this spring budget, and throw the gauntlet down at Starmer’s feet “if you don’t support these cuts, which taxes you promising to rise are you putting as commitments in your manifesto” whilst Kowakian monkey-lizards everywhere wave order papers and roar in delight?

    Any type of tax cut in this budget the voters will see through as a total joke, a total bribe - voters will see it as paid for from how tax take has been stealthy hiked and the Postmasters and blood scandal victims haven’t been paid. Hunt has already introduced £20 billion’s worth of rises in 2023-24, whilst scheduling £17 billion more for after the election, including continued threshold freezes.

    Let’s be honest, Tories cutting tax in this particular budget could cost them more votes than it gains.

    High borrowing, zero growth, crumbling public services. Tax cut paid for how?

    Conservatives win elections on fiscal discipline, not this financial fantasy gibberish. These millionaires untouched by what the people have gone through the last five years, are going to get hammered at the election on the basis in their minds they actually think it helps their cause to cut taxes just before this one, that the bleeding obvious bribe half paid for and half future paid for by the voters themselves, won’t look like the bleeding obvious bribe it is.

    Tories can’t read a room or relate to the electorate anymore. They will never come back to power until they can.
  • Options

    I’m now quite sure in my mind there is a lot of politics at play over timing of the next general election, between those who want Tories to get the worst possible result, perhaps wipe out, who talk up waiting till later in the year, and those who care about the party and wish to give the Conservatives the best possible result to recover from, suggesting this is May 2nd before sailing into choppy waters through the summer and autumn.

    Not sure it's about wanting the Conservatives to do badly, so much as not caring.

    Even a good result for the blue team will cause ministers to stop being ministers and many MPs to stop being MPs. It requires a degree of selflessness to do that prematurely for the sake of the Conservatives in 2028 and 2032.

    I'm lovely, and I'm pretty sure I wouldn't do it.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,056

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    This fucking climate. Still February. Cold dismal rain

    I quite like late February. Largely for the contrast with January. Light in the morning when I wake up, light in the evening when I leave work. First signs of growth in the gardens and parks. A bit of warmth on the face.
    All true, but according to my solar panel stats, we had about as much actual sunshine in February as in January. This simply isn't on.
    March is looking pretty poor to start with so there’s little hope for now (unless you’re focused on snow in the alps).
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,054
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    I’m done with this climate. I’ve now had over 9 hours of it. Endless

    I must surely flee

    There is no such thing as bad weather. Just unsuitable clothing or nothing meaningful to do.
    A motto coined by a Norwegian, I believe

    There is definitely “bad weather” - cold, wet, maybe dark - and I detest it

    No matter how many nifty layers you wear, the mood sinks when you stare into the murk of a northern February

    Let us advance upon the new world
    I think you are blaming your ennui and mood on the wrong source. Good weather is no replacement for purpose. Yours is an existential crisis rather than a climate one.

    It's now light from 6 to 6, my forsythia and daffodils are out, and much else is budding, and I have an all day clinic of long-waiters. It's a beautiful day.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,694

    IanB2 said:

    Peston ( I know) suggesting Hunt is to abolish non dom status

    Given that Labour has spent that money several times over and it props up some of the few remaining promises of significance in its intended manifesto, that would be political genius from the Tories, even if they do it in a way that ensures nothing changes until after the election
    🙂

    But Labour no longer have a policy to scrap non dom status. See my previous post.

    Under their new flag “fiscal prudence or death” Labour realise they cannot get scrapping nom dom bringing in assured promise of money past the OBR and City as confirmed extra money every year, and realise the damage it will cause scrapping it, so Labour are now keeping it, only calling it another name to pretend they scrapped it as promised.

    Rather than “political genius” from Tories, is the truth here a sign of their struggle and desperation to cobble together legitimate funding for the tax cuts?
    Much more that than 4D chess. The reality is that with borrowing as high as it currently is, tax cuts are a joke anyway.

    Unfortunately, they are the lucky rabbit's foot for the Conservatives. (Sorry for bringing it up, Moon), so they have to happen, whatever the effect on the rabbit (sorry again).
    But you do finally agree with me about the 4D chess at play over timing of the next general election?

    Those who want Tories to get the worst possible result, perhaps wipe out, trying to influence it to much later in year - talk up and tempt, like siren ferrets sitting on rocks and hiding their teeth, wait till later in the year where you can meet your pledges - and those who care about the party and wish to give the Conservatives the best possible result to recover from, suggesting this is May 2nd before sailing into choppy waters through summer and autumn.

    Halcyon birds nest in summer, just like humans attracted by calm look of the weather and water. But however you delve into this and analyse it, this summer offers our sitting government no respite at all.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,613

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    This fucking climate. Still February. Cold dismal rain

    I quite like late February. Largely for the contrast with January. Light in the morning when I wake up, light in the evening when I leave work. First signs of growth in the gardens and parks. A bit of warmth on the face.
    All true, but according to my solar panel stats, we had about as much actual sunshine in February as in January. This simply isn't on.
    Really? I've had about 30% more in Feb, with 10% fewer days.
  • Options

    School absence fines for parents to rise by £20
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-68420275

    I was talking to an acquaintance about this the other day. He and his wife both work (he claimed joint salary of around £70k), and have two young kids. He said a quote for an all-inclusive two-week foreign holiday this summer was between six and eight grand - far more than they can afford. He said that his parents were not well off, but managed at least one foreign holiday a year.

    I have heard similar complaints from other parents. A very quick 'win' for any government would be to allow children one week off school term-time. Yes, I know that has consequences, but I also think it will be popular with everyone except teachers and price-gouging travel firms.
    Cheap foreign holidays in term time exist because most families play by the rules.

    It's hard. I doubt the kids gain much from the average term time holiday. I bet there are more beaches than visits to the Louvre. At the same time, the last weeks of the summer term are not known for academic hothousing so no harm done.

    More worrying in that BBC report is that a quarter of secondary pupils missed more than a month out of the school year. What the answer is, I do not know because the fines system does not seem to be working.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    I got an incredibly plausible scam email from “Royal Mail”

    Here it is



    It asks you to click through, then pay for a new delivery. Just £1.35 or something

    However the demand for money got me suspicious, so I started checking the “links” and none of them really works - they all click through to the same cash demand

    But wow. They absolutely nailed the font, the styling, the imagery - at first glance it is entirely plausible. No obvious typos or weird phrases

    These will only get better with AI. Beware!
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335
    I expect the Labour candidate to hold on, his being disendorsed by Starmer and support for Palestinians in Gaza could ironically help him beat Galloway
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,176

    School absence fines for parents to rise by £20
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-68420275

    I was talking to an acquaintance about this the other day. He and his wife both work (he claimed joint salary of around £70k), and have two young kids. He said a quote for an all-inclusive two-week foreign holiday this summer was between six and eight grand - far more than they can afford. He said that his parents were not well off, but managed at least one foreign holiday a year.

    I have heard similar complaints from other parents. A very quick 'win' for any government would be to allow children one week off school term-time. Yes, I know that has consequences, but I also think it will be popular with everyone except teachers and price-gouging travel firms.
    Oh God no. Those of us without kids quite like knowing exactly when to avoid booking! Expensive foreign holidays aren’t a human right, and education is much more important than a cheap week on a beach.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    Leon said:

    I got an incredibly plausible scam email from “Royal Mail”

    Here it is



    It asks you to click through, then pay for a new delivery. Just £1.35 or something

    However the demand for money got me suspicious, so I started checking the “links” and none of them really works - they all click through to the same cash demand

    But wow. They absolutely nailed the font, the styling, the imagery - at first glance it is entirely plausible. No obvious typos or weird phrases

    These will only get better with AI. Beware!

    My elderly and slightly gaga mother would totally buy this scam. The Royal Mail! Everyone trusts the Royal Mail

    Sad times
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,327

    School absence fines for parents to rise by £20
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-68420275

    I was talking to an acquaintance about this the other day. He and his wife both work (he claimed joint salary of around £70k), and have two young kids. He said a quote for an all-inclusive two-week foreign holiday this summer was between six and eight grand - far more than they can afford. He said that his parents were not well off, but managed at least one foreign holiday a year.

    I have heard similar complaints from other parents. A very quick 'win' for any government would be to allow children one week off school term-time. Yes, I know that has consequences, but I also think it will be popular with everyone except teachers and price-gouging travel firms.
    Cheap foreign holidays in term time exist because most families play by the rules.

    It's hard. I doubt the kids gain much from the average term time holiday. I bet there are more beaches than visits to the Louvre. At the same time, the last weeks of the summer term are not known for academic hothousing so no harm done.

    More worrying in that BBC report is that a quarter of secondary pupils missed more than a month out of the school year. What the answer is, I do not know because the fines system does not seem to be working.
    Anecdotally, IME from my kid's school is that holiday absences are rare; illness and other issues lead to kids missing school.

    As I've mentioned passim. one of my son's friends is off school nearly as much as he is in - school started after half term on Tuesday, and I don't think he was in Tuesday or yesterday. Another friend has had three recurrences of chicken pox in just over a year (unusually, and worryingly), but that's the only reason he misses school.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335
    edited February 29

    I’m now quite sure in my mind there is a lot of politics at play over timing of the next general election, between those who want Tories to get the worst possible result, perhaps wipe out, who talk up waiting till later in the year, and those who care about the party and wish to give the Conservatives the best possible result to recover from, suggesting this is May 2nd before sailing into choppy waters through the summer and autumn.

    Not sure it's about wanting the Conservatives to do badly, so much as not caring.

    Even a good result for the blue team will cause ministers to stop being ministers and many MPs to stop being MPs. It requires a degree of selflessness to do that prematurely for the sake of the Conservatives in 2028 and 2032.

    I'm lovely, and I'm pretty sure I wouldn't do it.
    And Sunak having never been a Tory councillor unlike say John Major or Theresa May really won't be that bothered about saving a few Tory councillors seats or even about saving a few Tory MPs posts. Given he will be off to California if he loses a general election most likely his main goal remains stay PM as long as possible to boost his CV
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,197
    Sandpit said:

    School absence fines for parents to rise by £20
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-68420275

    I was talking to an acquaintance about this the other day. He and his wife both work (he claimed joint salary of around £70k), and have two young kids. He said a quote for an all-inclusive two-week foreign holiday this summer was between six and eight grand - far more than they can afford. He said that his parents were not well off, but managed at least one foreign holiday a year.

    I have heard similar complaints from other parents. A very quick 'win' for any government would be to allow children one week off school term-time. Yes, I know that has consequences, but I also think it will be popular with everyone except teachers and price-gouging travel firms.
    Oh God no. Those of us without kids quite like knowing exactly when to avoid booking! Expensive foreign holidays aren’t a human right, and education is much more important than a cheap week on a beach.
    You haven't quite got this. It's cheap termtime foreign holidays that are the human right

  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,327
    Sandpit said:

    School absence fines for parents to rise by £20
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-68420275

    I was talking to an acquaintance about this the other day. He and his wife both work (he claimed joint salary of around £70k), and have two young kids. He said a quote for an all-inclusive two-week foreign holiday this summer was between six and eight grand - far more than they can afford. He said that his parents were not well off, but managed at least one foreign holiday a year.

    I have heard similar complaints from other parents. A very quick 'win' for any government would be to allow children one week off school term-time. Yes, I know that has consequences, but I also think it will be popular with everyone except teachers and price-gouging travel firms.
    Oh God no. Those of us without kids quite like knowing exactly when to avoid booking! Expensive foreign holidays aren’t a human right, and education is much more important than a cheap week on a beach.
    Hey, I'm not saying it's the right thing to do: just that it'd be popular.
  • Options

    IanB2 said:

    Peston ( I know) suggesting Hunt is to abolish non dom status

    Given that Labour has spent that money several times over and it props up some of the few remaining promises of significance in its intended manifesto, that would be political genius from the Tories, even if they do it in a way that ensures nothing changes until after the election
    🙂

    But Labour no longer have a policy to scrap non dom status. See my previous post.

    Under their new flag “fiscal prudence or death” Labour realise they cannot get scrapping nom dom bringing in assured promise of money past the OBR and City as confirmed extra money every year, and realise the damage it will cause scrapping it, so Labour are now keeping it, only calling it another name to pretend they scrapped it as promised.

    Rather than “political genius” from Tories, is the truth here a sign of their struggle and desperation to cobble together legitimate funding for the tax cuts?
    Much more that than 4D chess. The reality is that with borrowing as high as it currently is, tax cuts are a joke anyway.

    Unfortunately, they are the lucky rabbit's foot for the Conservatives. (Sorry for bringing it up, Moon), so they have to happen, whatever the effect on the rabbit (sorry again).
    But you do finally agree with me about the 4D chess at play over timing of the next general election?

    Those who want Tories to get the worst possible result, perhaps wipe out, trying to influence it to much later in year - talk up and tempt, like siren ferrets sitting on rocks and hiding their teeth, wait till later in the year where you can meet your pledges - and those who care about the party and wish to give the Conservatives the best possible result to recover from, suggesting this is May 2nd before sailing into choppy waters through summer and autumn.

    Halcyon birds nest in summer, just like humans attracted by calm look of the weather and water. But however you delve into this and analyse it, this summer offers our sitting government no respite at all.
    We are 47 weeks exactly from the general election on Thursday, 23rd January. Your analysis rests on an earlier election being better for the government than a later one, which I think is wrong. First, not even Liz Truss thinks it would be better to have Kier Starmer rather than Rishi in Number 10 for the rest of this year. Second, by negating the Opposition parties' ground war advantage, a holiday campaign is best for the Conservatives. Third, something might turn up.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,056
    Wolfgang Munchau in the NS today on the EU elections and the forthcoming backsliding on net zero, just as the global temperature hits new peaks.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2024/02/europe-consensus-climate-crumbling

    It is interesting how much Western politics are currently driven by anti-incumbency following the stresses of the last few years
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,004

    Sandpit said:

    School absence fines for parents to rise by £20
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-68420275

    I was talking to an acquaintance about this the other day. He and his wife both work (he claimed joint salary of around £70k), and have two young kids. He said a quote for an all-inclusive two-week foreign holiday this summer was between six and eight grand - far more than they can afford. He said that his parents were not well off, but managed at least one foreign holiday a year.

    I have heard similar complaints from other parents. A very quick 'win' for any government would be to allow children one week off school term-time. Yes, I know that has consequences, but I also think it will be popular with everyone except teachers and price-gouging travel firms.
    Oh God no. Those of us without kids quite like knowing exactly when to avoid booking! Expensive foreign holidays aren’t a human right, and education is much more important than a cheap week on a beach.
    Hey, I'm not saying it's the right thing to do: just that it'd be popular.
    I think that chap probably has a very particular kind of foreign holiday.
  • Options
    ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,008

    Leon said:

    ON topic, I’m reading the biography of Simon Bolivar, the liberator of South America

    His dad was quite something. He raped anything that moved - mainly chambermaids and slaves but also the wives of his best friends

    It got so bad the church sent out a special mission to investigate him. The church decided that all the women were lying despite their identical accounts - yet nonetheless issued him a stern warning to stop raping so many women

    It’s difficult to decide who comes out of this story as the hero

    I read one about a year ago by Marie Arana. He was a driven man surrounded by slimy scumbags who ultimately stopped a unified latin america ( excluding portugese speaking Brazil ). Hard to know if his vision was just undeliverable or if the local caudillos nobbled it.
    Somewhat related - I've always had a soft spot for the film "Walker" :

    "Walker is a 1987 American-Mexican historical, hybrid/weird western film directed by Alex Cox and starring Ed Harris, Richard Masur, René Auberjonois, Peter Boyle, Miguel Sandoval and Marlee Matlin. The film is based on the life story of William Walker, the American filibuster who invaded and made himself president of Nicaragua. It was written by Rudy Wurlitzer and scored by Joe Strummer, who has a small role as a member of Walker's army."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walker_(film)
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,053
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: first two practice sessions are today.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,246
    Cookie said:

    School absence fines for parents to rise by £20
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-68420275

    I was talking to an acquaintance about this the other day. He and his wife both work (he claimed joint salary of around £70k), and have two young kids. He said a quote for an all-inclusive two-week foreign holiday this summer was between six and eight grand - far more than they can afford. He said that his parents were not well off, but managed at least one foreign holiday a year.

    I have heard similar complaints from other parents. A very quick 'win' for any government would be to allow children one week off school term-time. Yes, I know that has consequences, but I also think it will be popular with everyone except teachers and price-gouging travel firms.
    I differ from you here. I don't really see all-inclusive foreign holidays as a middle class right. I had a fairly comfortable suburban middle class upbringing, and I was an only child, but certainly wouldn't have expected holidays like that. And I'm pretty comfortably off now, but wouldn't expect to do holidays like that now as a parent. We did go abroad sometimes, but it would be a Eurocamp or something like that.
    And holiday companies aren't gouging, they're just responding to demand. I think they'd be very pleased to have more customers for the out-of-school-holiday weeks.
    Holidays certainly have got more expensive. The pound has lost almost a third of its value against the Euro since the early 2000s, which doesn't help. Oil costs three times as much in GBP terms too. Personally I view a big foreign family holiday as an occasional treat rather than an annual occurance. We usually have two weeks in Cornwall or Scotland in the summer. Although even that usually works out at £4k or something owing to a big rise in accommodation costs. Camping is a cheaper option. Taking kids out of school is rightly discouraged, it's disruptive for the whole class, and sends a bad signal to the kids about the relative priorities of having fun vs work and study.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975
    Sandpit said:

    One for @Sandpit and @Malmesbury :

    A startup claims to have developed a very efficient jet engine that could potentially be used as the first stage of a rocket. Early days, and all that, but they have small-scale prototypes.

    https://twitter.com/k2pilot/status/1763007610993991722

    Looks interesting. Now that returning a first stage safely to Earth appears to be a solved problem, it opens up other options for propulsion that can save large amounts of fuel vs conventional rocket motors. If you can make a jet engine-based first stage that can take a rocket to say 60,000ft at Mach 3, then fire a second stage to orbit, then you’d save a fortune over time. Think of a hybrid between a current Falcon 9 and the Virgin Galactic setup, but unmanned.

    One of my favourite rocket stats was that Saturn V had lost 5% of its launch weight by the time it had cleared the tower. The weight is all fuel, and more weight needs even more fuel to carry it off the pad. You’d never choose a vertical launch if other options existed.
    If that’s what you wanted to do, there have been plans to cluster all the F15 engines on a first stage with water injection - which gets you to Mach 3.

    https://www.sbir.gov/content/trans-atmospheric-turbojet-engine-2

    Keyword MIPCC

    The closer the tech got to live use was the a souped up F4 for Israel - https://avgeekery.com/the-mach-3-f-4-phantom/

    Fuel is very cheap, and rocket engines have insane thrust to weight ratios. Jet engines are much heavier, and even Mach 3 is hard. So you have to stage very low.

    These ideas were popular back in the 90s when it seemed that making a reliable, reusable stage with rocket engines was a pipe dream.

    Now we have an operational first stage that costs a few million to get you higher and faster. And a successor on the way.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,194

    Leon said:

    ON topic, I’m reading the biography of Simon Bolivar, the liberator of South America

    His dad was quite something. He raped anything that moved - mainly chambermaids and slaves but also the wives of his best friends

    It got so bad the church sent out a special mission to investigate him. The church decided that all the women were lying despite their identical accounts - yet nonetheless issued him a stern warning to stop raping so many women

    It’s difficult to decide who comes out of this story as the hero

    I read one about a year ago by Marie Arana. He was a driven man surrounded by slimy scumbags who ultimately stopped a unified latin america ( excluding portugese speaking Brazil ). Hard to know if his vision was just undeliverable or if the local caudillos nobbled it.
    Not familiar with him myself but have just read a biog of his great chum Humboldt the explorer. He features in that too. Obviously that relationship had an effect on Bolivar jnr.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Invention-Nature-Alexander-Humboldts-World/dp/0345806298
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,327
    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    One for @Sandpit and @Malmesbury :

    A startup claims to have developed a very efficient jet engine that could potentially be used as the first stage of a rocket. Early days, and all that, but they have small-scale prototypes.

    https://twitter.com/k2pilot/status/1763007610993991722

    Interesting notion - decoupling the compressor and turbine stages to get the gearing right, so to speak, as I understand it. Has nobody else thought of it before? Good for them if not!
    Yes, with 'conventional' jet engines.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geared_turbofan

    This is the first I've heard of them being decoupled to this degree. An interesting notion.
    No one has used an electric motor to drive the compressor, though ?
    A simple, but profound innovation.
    As mentioned in that Twitter exchange, Rocketlab use electric motors to drive the turbopumps on their Rutherford rocket engines - they drop the batteries off during launch. Although I think they're going for a more conventional route for their new, larger engine.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,327
    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    School absence fines for parents to rise by £20
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-68420275

    I was talking to an acquaintance about this the other day. He and his wife both work (he claimed joint salary of around £70k), and have two young kids. He said a quote for an all-inclusive two-week foreign holiday this summer was between six and eight grand - far more than they can afford. He said that his parents were not well off, but managed at least one foreign holiday a year.

    I have heard similar complaints from other parents. A very quick 'win' for any government would be to allow children one week off school term-time. Yes, I know that has consequences, but I also think it will be popular with everyone except teachers and price-gouging travel firms.
    Oh God no. Those of us without kids quite like knowing exactly when to avoid booking! Expensive foreign holidays aren’t a human right, and education is much more important than a cheap week on a beach.
    Hey, I'm not saying it's the right thing to do: just that it'd be popular.
    I think that chap probably has a very particular kind of foreign holiday.
    ??? From what he was saying, sun, sea and sand for him, his wife and two kids.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335
    DavidL said:

    The Supreme Court decision to grant review of Trump's immunity claim, and in a few months at that, means that none of the criminal trials will be concluded by November. It is a truly shocking decision given the baseless arguments which were unanimously and contemptuously dismissed by the Court of Appeal.

    There will come a time when this Court and its members will be held to account for its destruction of democracy. Or there won't be any democracy left to save.

    No. Trump's criminal case for illegal loans to Stormy Daniels still starts next month. Those loans were allegedly made in October 2016 before he became president so the SC ruling on Presidential immunity does not apply to it.

    Indeed if convicted it is possible Trump could be in jail by the time the SC eventually delivers its ruling on whether he can be tried over the insurrection he allegedly led
  • Options
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    This fucking climate. Still February. Cold dismal rain

    I quite like late February. Largely for the contrast with January. Light in the morning when I wake up, light in the evening when I leave work. First signs of growth in the gardens and parks. A bit of warmth on the face.
    All true, but according to my solar panel stats, we had about as much actual sunshine in February as in January. This simply isn't on.
    Really? I've had about 30% more in Feb, with 10% fewer days.
    It's been mild (central heating off) but grey.

    Yes, it's grim down south.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,056
    MattW said:

    Sandpit said:

    School absence fines for parents to rise by £20
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-68420275

    I was talking to an acquaintance about this the other day. He and his wife both work (he claimed joint salary of around £70k), and have two young kids. He said a quote for an all-inclusive two-week foreign holiday this summer was between six and eight grand - far more than they can afford. He said that his parents were not well off, but managed at least one foreign holiday a year.

    I have heard similar complaints from other parents. A very quick 'win' for any government would be to allow children one week off school term-time. Yes, I know that has consequences, but I also think it will be popular with everyone except teachers and price-gouging travel firms.
    Oh God no. Those of us without kids quite like knowing exactly when to avoid booking! Expensive foreign holidays aren’t a human right, and education is much more important than a cheap week on a beach.
    Hey, I'm not saying it's the right thing to do: just that it'd be popular.
    I think that chap probably has a very particular kind of foreign holiday.
    I think the minimum viable spend for a 2 week family summer holiday abroad is something like £3k. Similar for the UK unless you go very basic given accommodation here is more expensive.

    Take a holiday in a reasonable but not fancy self catering cottage with a garden but no pool, somewhere in central France. Ferry 200, fuel and tolls around 250, accommodation say 1,800, 5-6 meals out 500, shopping for self catering another 200, museum & attraction tickets maybe another 100, that’s just over 3 grand.

    The accommodation cost would be similar if
    you went Eurocamp.

    That sort of holiday doesn’t vary in price quite so much around school holidays though.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,147

    IanB2 said:

    Peston ( I know) suggesting Hunt is to abolish non dom status

    Given that Labour has spent that money several times over and it props up some of the few remaining promises of significance in its intended manifesto, that would be political genius from the Tories, even if they do it in a way that ensures nothing changes until after the election
    🙂

    But Labour no longer have a policy to scrap non dom status. See my previous post.

    Under their new flag “fiscal prudence or death” Labour realise they cannot get scrapping nom dom bringing in assured promise of money past the OBR and City as confirmed extra money every year, and realise the damage it will cause scrapping it, so Labour are now keeping it, only calling it another name to pretend they scrapped it as promised.

    Rather than “political genius” from Tories, is the truth here a sign of their struggle and desperation to cobble together legitimate funding for the tax cuts?
    Much more that than 4D chess. The reality is that with borrowing as high as it currently is, tax cuts are a joke anyway.

    Unfortunately, they are the lucky rabbit's foot for the Conservatives. (Sorry for bringing it up, Moon), so they have to happen, whatever the effect on the rabbit (sorry again).
    But you do finally agree with me about the 4D chess at play over timing of the next general election?

    Those who want Tories to get the worst possible result, perhaps wipe out, trying to influence it to much later in year - talk up and tempt, like siren ferrets sitting on rocks and hiding their teeth, wait till later in the year where you can meet your pledges - and those who care about the party and wish to give the Conservatives the best possible result to recover from, suggesting this is May 2nd before sailing into choppy waters through summer and autumn.

    Halcyon birds nest in summer, just like humans attracted by calm look of the weather and water. But however you delve into this and analyse it, this summer offers our sitting government no respite at all.
    We are 47 weeks exactly from the general election on Thursday, 23rd January. Your analysis rests on an earlier election being better for the government than a later one, which I think is wrong. First, not even Liz Truss thinks it would be better to have Kier Starmer rather than Rishi in Number 10 for the rest of this year. Second, by negating the Opposition parties' ground war advantage, a holiday campaign is best for the Conservatives. Third, something might turn up.
    You think an election over Christmas with Rishi waiting to the last second is going to get the Tory party votes.

    I can see the Tory party returning as the 3rd or even 4th party is Rishi was that stupid
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,004
    edited February 29
    Good morning all.

    Chump:

    I need a lawyer to boil down for me the implications of the trade offs (trades off?) between the Chicken Supreme Court needing 4 votes to take the case, and 5 votes to find in Mr Trump's favour.

    I think it means that one of the Justices is Private Godfrey, and that the SC as a partly rational forum is shot to ribbons for some time into the future.

    This is not the line I was expecting tbh, and I think it means various things are somewhat buggered, but it will still be unexpected for him to win the Election given how he has poisoned the Electorate.

    On Galloway, I suggest he is the nearest thing we have in UK politics to Trump, and his position vs Trump's position in society shows us as still relatively fortunate.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,589
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    The Supreme Court decision to grant review of Trump's immunity claim, and in a few months at that, means that none of the criminal trials will be concluded by November. It is a truly shocking decision given the baseless arguments which were unanimously and contemptuously dismissed by the Court of Appeal.

    There will come a time when this Court and its members will be held to account for its destruction of democracy. Or there won't be any democracy left to save.

    No. Trump's criminal case for illegal loans to Stormy Daniels still starts next month. Those loans were allegedly made in October 2016 before he became president so the SC ruling on Presidential immunity does not apply to it.

    Indeed if convicted it is possible Trump could be in jail by the time the SC eventually delivers its ruling on whether he can be tried over the insurrection he allegedly led
    I agree the Stormy Daniels case can go ahead (I don't think it is loans, it is the misdescription of the bribes paid to her claimed as taxable expenses) but the important one is the trial relating to January 6th. It is important because it is all too likely that this disgrace of a SC will rule that he is not ineligible to be on the ballot for insurrection without a conviction and that is no longer possible before the election.

    The hearing is on April 22nd. I think it is unlikely that we will get a decision until June. Even if this is against Trump (and with this Court, who knows) he will get 90 days before the start of the trial. A verdict before November is possible but the decision is not final until after sentence and that will be post election.

    When Trump needed a fast decision from the SC they ruled within 45 days. The timetable here is a disgrace and deliberately designed to protect Trump.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054
    edited February 29

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    This fucking climate. Still February. Cold dismal rain

    I quite like late February. Largely for the contrast with January. Light in the morning when I wake up, light in the evening when I leave work. First signs of growth in the gardens and parks. A bit of warmth on the face.
    All true, but according to my solar panel stats, we had about as much actual sunshine in February as in January. This simply isn't on.
    Really? I've had about 30% more in Feb, with 10% fewer days.
    It's been mild (central heating off) but grey.

    Yes, it's grim down south.
    165.8 Vs 133.5 kWh for me according to my app which tends to only be slightly off
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975

    Leon said:

    ON topic, I’m reading the biography of Simon Bolivar, the liberator of South America

    His dad was quite something. He raped anything that moved - mainly chambermaids and slaves but also the wives of his best friends

    It got so bad the church sent out a special mission to investigate him. The church decided that all the women were lying despite their identical accounts - yet nonetheless issued him a stern warning to stop raping so many women

    It’s difficult to decide who comes out of this story as the hero

    I read one about a year ago by Marie Arana. He was a driven man surrounded by slimy scumbags who ultimately stopped a unified latin america ( excluding portugese speaking Brazil ). Hard to know if his vision was just undeliverable or if the local caudillos nobbled it.
    When Miranda surrendered to the Spanish Royal forces in Venezuela, Bolivar was furious - he denounced a negotiations as treason and demanded Miranda’s death. The other leaders of the Revolution disagreed.

    Bolivar then handed Miranda over to the Spanish - in return for a negotiated self conduct for himself (Bolivar) from the Spanish.

    Miranda died in a Spanish prison.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,613

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    This fucking climate. Still February. Cold dismal rain

    I quite like late February. Largely for the contrast with January. Light in the morning when I wake up, light in the evening when I leave work. First signs of growth in the gardens and parks. A bit of warmth on the face.
    All true, but according to my solar panel stats, we had about as much actual sunshine in February as in January. This simply isn't on.
    Really? I've had about 30% more in Feb, with 10% fewer days.
    It's been mild (central heating off) but grey.

    Yes, it's grim down south.
    This is still my first year with solar. I'm still fascinated by the stats. It sounds obvious, but I'm surprised how much more you produce on a sunny day; and how much more you produce on a sunny day in June than a sunny day in Jan. On a cloudless day in June I was producing nearly 40kwh; on an equally cloudless day in January I produced barely 5.

    Feb in the NW has been - okish. Sunnier than Jan, anyway. Cloudy but bright presently.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054
    Pulpstar said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    This fucking climate. Still February. Cold dismal rain

    I quite like late February. Largely for the contrast with January. Light in the morning when I wake up, light in the evening when I leave work. First signs of growth in the gardens and parks. A bit of warmth on the face.
    All true, but according to my solar panel stats, we had about as much actual sunshine in February as in January. This simply isn't on.
    Really? I've had about 30% more in Feb, with 10% fewer days.
    It's been mild (central heating off) but grey.

    Yes, it's grim down south.
    165.8 Vs 133.5 kWh for me according to my app which tends to only be slightly off
    Last year was 185.2 and 225.3 kwh
  • Options
    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    Peston ( I know) suggesting Hunt is to abolish non dom status

    Given that Labour has spent that money several times over and it props up some of the few remaining promises of significance in its intended manifesto, that would be political genius from the Tories, even if they do it in a way that ensures nothing changes until after the election
    🙂

    But Labour no longer have a policy to scrap non dom status. See my previous post.

    Under their new flag “fiscal prudence or death” Labour realise they cannot get scrapping nom dom bringing in assured promise of money past the OBR and City as confirmed extra money every year, and realise the damage it will cause scrapping it, so Labour are now keeping it, only calling it another name to pretend they scrapped it as promised.

    Rather than “political genius” from Tories, is the truth here a sign of their struggle and desperation to cobble together legitimate funding for the tax cuts?
    Much more that than 4D chess. The reality is that with borrowing as high as it currently is, tax cuts are a joke anyway.

    Unfortunately, they are the lucky rabbit's foot for the Conservatives. (Sorry for bringing it up, Moon), so they have to happen, whatever the effect on the rabbit (sorry again).
    But you do finally agree with me about the 4D chess at play over timing of the next general election?

    Those who want Tories to get the worst possible result, perhaps wipe out, trying to influence it to much later in year - talk up and tempt, like siren ferrets sitting on rocks and hiding their teeth, wait till later in the year where you can meet your pledges - and those who care about the party and wish to give the Conservatives the best possible result to recover from, suggesting this is May 2nd before sailing into choppy waters through summer and autumn.

    Halcyon birds nest in summer, just like humans attracted by calm look of the weather and water. But however you delve into this and analyse it, this summer offers our sitting government no respite at all.
    We are 47 weeks exactly from the general election on Thursday, 23rd January. Your analysis rests on an earlier election being better for the government than a later one, which I think is wrong. First, not even Liz Truss thinks it would be better to have Kier Starmer rather than Rishi in Number 10 for the rest of this year. Second, by negating the Opposition parties' ground war advantage, a holiday campaign is best for the Conservatives. Third, something might turn up.
    You think an election over Christmas with Rishi waiting to the last second is going to get the Tory party votes.

    I can see the Tory party returning as the 3rd or even 4th party is Rishi was that stupid
    Not quite. I think an election over the holiday period will cost the Opposition parties more votes than it costs the government. And more importantly, I think some in CCHQ think that.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,613
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    I got an incredibly plausible scam email from “Royal Mail”

    Here it is



    It asks you to click through, then pay for a new delivery. Just £1.35 or something

    However the demand for money got me suspicious, so I started checking the “links” and none of them really works - they all click through to the same cash demand

    But wow. They absolutely nailed the font, the styling, the imagery - at first glance it is entirely plausible. No obvious typos or weird phrases

    These will only get better with AI. Beware!

    My elderly and slightly gaga mother would totally buy this scam. The Royal Mail! Everyone trusts the Royal Mail

    Sad times
    I get three or four of these a day.
    The giveaway is the greeting: "Hi". No name, and not the sort of casual greeting the Royal Mail would usually use. I don't know why the scammers don't fix this - it can't be that hard to do so.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,335
    edited February 29
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    The Supreme Court decision to grant review of Trump's immunity claim, and in a few months at that, means that none of the criminal trials will be concluded by November. It is a truly shocking decision given the baseless arguments which were unanimously and contemptuously dismissed by the Court of Appeal.

    There will come a time when this Court and its members will be held to account for its destruction of democracy. Or there won't be any democracy left to save.

    No. Trump's criminal case for illegal loans to Stormy Daniels still starts next month. Those loans were allegedly made in October 2016 before he became president so the SC ruling on Presidential immunity does not apply to it.

    Indeed if convicted it is possible Trump could be in jail by the time the SC eventually delivers its ruling on whether he can be tried over the insurrection he allegedly led
    I agree the Stormy Daniels case can go ahead (I don't think it is loans, it is the misdescription of the bribes paid to her claimed as taxable expenses) but the important one is the trial relating to January 6th. It is important because it is all too likely that this disgrace of a SC will rule that he is not ineligible to be on the ballot for insurrection without a conviction and that is no longer possible before the election.

    The hearing is on April 22nd. I think it is unlikely that we will get a decision until June. Even if this is against Trump (and with this Court, who knows) he will get 90 days before the start of the trial. A verdict before November is possible but the decision is not final until after sentence and that will be post election.

    When Trump needed a fast decision from the SC they ruled within 45 days. The timetable here is a disgrace and deliberately designed to protect Trump.
    The insurrection cases are overrated and in any case Trump's supporters will still back him even if convicted. I think at most the SC would say the Constitution might stop him being President again if guilty of insurrection but does not stop him being on the ballot.

    In any case had other criminal
    cases gone forward then the
    Stormy Daniels case may
    have been postponed, now it
    and the classified documents
    case in Florida set for May
    are more significant. Conviction in either would see Independents desert Trump and likely prove fatal to him.
    Remember too it was tax evasion which got Al Capone in the end not his gangland killings
  • Options
    There is a story of one headmaster of Eton being miffed when he discovered only later that the Queen Mother had popped in for tea with one of the boys.
This discussion has been closed.