Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict the UK political divide – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 12 in General
imageThe Israeli-Palestinian conflict the UK political divide – politicalbetting.com

I find this much more polarised than I had thought. The other split that I would not have predicted is that Remainers aresignificantly more likely to back Palestinians.

Read the full story here

«1

Comments

  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,310
    edited February 20
    Tricky one this. My instinct is both (or perhaps more precisely, neither).

    Oh - and first? Like neither side in this conflict.
  • I suspect you'd find a similar split on trans
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    One thing I found out tonight, the Jews invented beer. That’s where He Brew comes from.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,310
    ydoethur said:

    'Sympathise' with either 'side' is the wrong word. The people who deserve sympathy at this moment are the ordinary citizens of Gaza, who are human shields and useful propaganda tools for Hamas and cannon fodder for Netanyahu.

    If anyone wants to sympathise with either of those 'sides,' and not a few posters on here do, then they're fools.

    Yes. Sympathy more with ordinary Palestinians now as they're the ones experiencing the shit show. On 7 October sympathy more with ordinary Israelis. But to sympathise with either side - Hamas or the Israeli government? No, I think not.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,908
    The Jewish vote was even more Conservative than the Anglican vote in 2019 while the Muslim vote was strongly Labour. So the fact Conservative voters are more pro Israel (even if the median Tory sympathises with both sides) while Labour voters support Palestinians more is no suprise
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,114
    edited February 20
    HYUFD said:

    I cannot believe people think Rishi Sunak is an arrogant out of touch elitist.

    Sunak faces backlash after saying farmers work for love, not money

    Prime Minister’s remarks at NFU conference rebuked by union chief as polling shows Tories face rural election woe


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/02/20/rishi-sunak-faces-backlash-for-saying-farmers-work-for-love/

    Not all, plenty of multi millionaire farmers round here whose families have owned their farms for generations, who live in big rustic old farmhouses and often have multiple tenants
    Reminds me of the Kronenbourg advert a few years ago:

    Woman in pub: "Excusez-moi. Are you a farmer?"
    Eric Cantona: "Of course! Oui!"
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,417
    I sympathise with civilians on both sides, though clearly the Gazans have it worse now. On the other hand, the Gazan government, such as it is, is a far worse thing than the Israeli one, even this one headed by Netanhayu and with even more dodgy coalition allies.

    It's a bad question really. I wonder what the results would look like if the question was 'who do you want to win?', and indeed, what does 'win' look like.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,793

    One thing I found out tonight, the Jews invented beer. That’s where He Brew comes from.

    I think archaeology dates the oldest brewhouse in the world to Albania. The evidence suggests it was a doubly fermented light beer, not too dissimilar to a modern Pale Ale.

    This discovery has been termed dual IPA.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,049
    Off thread...but really disgusting...if anyone is watching the Inter Atletico Match...the close up grob of Inter's Arnautovic is the most appalling and sickening I have ever seen after his terrible miss. It was green and drooled out and got stuck on his face...and I was eating a bowl of shreddies which I cannot now finish...

    I know this is a political site, bit we do sometimes do go off piste...

    I'm a Man City fan, and Pep's continued flecking of white bits of spittle is quite gross (he even does it when interviewed)...but tonight's close up was vomit inducing awfulness...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,793
    @DominicPenna

    🚨 EXCLUSIVE

    Tory voters believe that only Penny Mordaunt could beat Sir Keir Starmer at the next election, a new poll suggests

    2019 Conservative supporters agree by 38% to 31% that Mordaunt has a better chance of victory than Rishi Sunak
  • Pro_Rata said:

    One thing I found out tonight, the Jews invented beer. That’s where He Brew comes from.

    I think archaeology dates the oldest brewhouse in the world to Albania. The evidence suggests it was a doubly fermented light beer, not too dissimilar to a modern Pale Ale.

    This discovery has been termed dual IPA.
    General Waste invented the dust bin!
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,719
    Pro_Rata said:

    One thing I found out tonight, the Jews invented beer. That’s where He Brew comes from.

    I think archaeology dates the oldest brewhouse in the world to Albania. The evidence suggests it was a doubly fermented light beer, not too dissimilar to a modern Pale Ale.

    This discovery has been termed dual IPA.
    Did the Saffers invent laager?

    I really don't want to get into a row about who invented bitter.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,793
    @PickardJE
    🚨🚨

    Kemi Badenoch, business and trade secretary, was on Tuesday locked in a new political row, this time over her contested claim that she was engaged in trade talks with Canada, negotiations Ottawa insists do not exist….




  • Scott_xP said:

    @PickardJE
    🚨🚨

    Kemi Badenoch, business and trade secretary, was on Tuesday locked in a new political row, this time over her contested claim that she was engaged in trade talks with Canada, negotiations Ottawa insists do not exist….




    You Canuck be serious!
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,417
    Scott_xP said:

    @DominicPenna

    🚨 EXCLUSIVE

    Tory voters believe that only Penny Mordaunt could beat Sir Keir Starmer at the next election, a new poll suggests

    2019 Conservative supporters agree by 38% to 31% that Mordaunt has a better chance of victory than Rishi Sunak

    A poll that results in a 38-31 split doesn't really tell us anything - particularly if it's only of the public second-guessing a result, not even responding directly to a hypothetical (which itself is a pretty unreliable form of question).
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,793
    Scott_xP said:

    @DominicPenna

    🚨 EXCLUSIVE

    Tory voters believe that only Penny Mordaunt could beat Sir Keir Starmer at the next election, a new poll suggests

    2019 Conservative supporters agree by 38% to 31% that Mordaunt has a better chance of victory than Rishi Sunak

    When a party that is way behind replaces a leader very late in the day and the new leader is found wanting such that their honeymoon period dissipates during a GE campaign -

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1993_Canadian_federal_election?wprov=sfla1

    Sunak will not deliver this result. Mordaunt might.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,371
    Scott_xP said:

    @PickardJE
    🚨🚨

    Kemi Badenoch, business and trade secretary, was on Tuesday locked in a new political row, this time over her contested claim that she was engaged in trade talks with Canada, negotiations Ottawa insists do not exist….




    ..blessed are the cheesemakers...
  • stodgestodge Posts: 12,798
    Evening all :)

    Slightly less surprising detail in the thread header poll - in London 39% side with the Palestinians. This is part of Labour's "local difficulty" in some of its East London seats - the Newham Independents have confirmed they will be standing a candidate in East Ham against Stephen Timms at the GE.

    In 2005, Respect finished second with 20% of the vote and it'll be interesting to see if Mirza (not Mehmood but Tahir and no relation) can make any meaningful impression on Timms who scraped home in 2019 with a 33,000 majority.

    I suspect pro-Palestinian candidates will stand in a number of East London Labour seats including both Ilfords, East Ham, West Ham & Beckton, Stratford & Bow, Bethnal Green & Stepney and Poplar & Limehouse.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,323

    I sympathise with civilians on both sides, though clearly the Gazans have it worse now. On the other hand, the Gazan government, such as it is, is a far worse thing than the Israeli one, even this one headed by Netanhayu and with even more dodgy coalition allies.

    It's a bad question really. I wonder what the results would look like if the question was 'who do you want to win?', and indeed, what does 'win' look like.

    There's also the point of the actually existing versus the theoretical. We know what the injustices towards Palestinians are of the current status quo (war or no war). Because they actually exist. So naturally there is considerable sympathy to those suffering them in the here and now.

    7 October gave just a small taste of what the reverse would mean for Jews under a Hamas-run one. I think sympathies would, and did in the aftermath, shift quite considerably once people saw the horrors that meant.

    Which, is one reason even Israelis outside the right or non-Jews like the Druze, don't set much store by international sympathies or the 'debate' as conducted by outsiders. Being condemned is painful, but not as significant if you think those doing so fundamentally misunderstand the horrors of what some of the things they advocate would mean.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,455
    ydoethur said:

    'Sympathise' with either 'side' is the wrong word. The people who deserve sympathy at this moment are the ordinary citizens of Gaza, who are human shields and useful propaganda tools for Hamas and cannon fodder for Netanyahu.

    If anyone wants to sympathise with either of those 'sides,' and not a few posters on here do, then they're fools.

    On the whole normal people sympathise with ordinary people on all sides where their leaders have got them into a violent mess. We don't hate ordinary Russians etc. We want decent outcomes for ordinary people.

    Generally despite that we can form a view, if we want about what would be the best outcome. I have no problem with Russians, and I don't suppose Ukraine is perfect, but I think it would be best all round if Russia lost. Just as I think it was best for ordinary Germans that they lost in 1945.

    In the Israel/Palestine thing it is just impossible to turn the basic humane response - we support good people on all sides - into any sort of policy at all. If there was one I, and most of us, would hold it. There are not even options to choose from or victories to have.

    This is what makes it unique. No-one can imagine what a decent outcome for good people on all sides could look like. Not really.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Scott_xP said:

    @PickardJE
    🚨🚨

    Kemi Badenoch, business and trade secretary, was on Tuesday locked in a new political row, this time over her contested claim that she was engaged in trade talks with Canada, negotiations Ottawa insists do not exist….




    ..blessed are the cheesemakers...
    This. is. A . Disgrace. 😠

    In better news, Kemi Badenoch has zoomed called Ed Davey to sack him.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,793

    Badenoch is not doing her leadership aspirations any favours this week.

    Apologies for making a betting post but, you know, PB and all that.

    ...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,908
    Pro_Rata said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DominicPenna

    🚨 EXCLUSIVE

    Tory voters believe that only Penny Mordaunt could beat Sir Keir Starmer at the next election, a new poll suggests

    2019 Conservative supporters agree by 38% to 31% that Mordaunt has a better chance of victory than Rishi Sunak

    When a party that is way behind replaces a leader very late in the day and the new leader is found wanting such that their honeymoon period dissipates during a GE campaign -

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1993_Canadian_federal_election?wprov=sfla1

    Sunak will not deliver this result. Mordaunt might.
    Neither will, Truss might have
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,954
    The swing from Tories to Labour during the 2017 general election campaign was 8%, in the opinion polls, and then an extra 2% due to opinion poll error.

    If we applied that election campaign swing to the current opinion polls, but in the Tories favour, the Tories would have a slender 2% lead, perhaps around 310 seats, and you'd think that Labour, Lib Dems and assorted Celtic Nationalists, would have enough votes to win a vote of no confidence in a Tory minority government, but it would be close.

    Could Labour have an election campaign as bad as Theresa May in 2017? Does Sunak have the potential to convince the electorate he's not half as bad as people have said he is?

    When I was a child my Dad took me skiing and, frankly, it was something that often scared me. I could be a timid skier, and that's no way to ski. If you hang back the weight comes off the front of your skis, and they can easily be knocked one way or the other - sending you sprawling onto your face. And that's how, at the age of nine, I managed to break the femur in my left leg.

    I wonder about Starmer. He's a timid politician. Sometimes playing safety first isn't safe. It betrays a lack of confidence in yourself and your convictions. If you don't have confidence in yourself, why should the electorate? I think there's a chance that Starmer's timidity will see him take a tumble during an election campaign and land flat on his face.

    Maybe the 7/1 available from William Hill on Conservative Most Seats is value?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,908
    edited February 20
    Scott_xP said:

    @PickardJE
    🚨🚨

    Kemi Badenoch, business and trade secretary, was on Tuesday locked in a new political row, this time over her contested claim that she was engaged in trade talks with Canada, negotiations Ottawa insists do not exist….




    Presumably that also means maybe tariffs on maple syrup imports too?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,526
    HYUFD said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DominicPenna

    🚨 EXCLUSIVE

    Tory voters believe that only Penny Mordaunt could beat Sir Keir Starmer at the next election, a new poll suggests

    2019 Conservative supporters agree by 38% to 31% that Mordaunt has a better chance of victory than Rishi Sunak

    When a party that is way behind replaces a leader very late in the day and the new leader is found wanting such that their honeymoon period dissipates during a GE campaign -

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1993_Canadian_federal_election?wprov=sfla1

    Sunak will not deliver this result. Mordaunt might.
    Neither will, Truss might have
    Well she is still available. Isn't there sort of a wild card entry for the best loser from the previous rounds?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,164
    edited February 20
    Scott_xP said:

    @DominicPenna

    🚨 EXCLUSIVE

    Tory voters believe that only Penny Mordaunt could beat Sir Keir Starmer at the next election, a new poll suggests

    2019 Conservative supporters agree by 38% to 31% that Mordaunt has a better chance of victory than Rishi Sunak

    Something they would have done well to have worked out somewhat earlier, perhaps?

    The mistake they made was not getting all the contenders to stand about holding a sword for a few hours, to see what they are truly made of.
  • ajbajb Posts: 118

    The swing from Tories to Labour during the 2017 general election campaign was 8%, in the opinion polls, and then an extra 2% due to opinion poll error.

    If we applied that election campaign swing to the current opinion polls, but in the Tories favour, the Tories would have a slender 2% lead, perhaps around 310 seats, and you'd think that Labour, Lib Dems and assorted Celtic Nationalists, would have enough votes to win a vote of no confidence in a Tory minority government, but it would be close.

    Could Labour have an election campaign as bad as Theresa May in 2017? Does Sunak have the potential to convince the electorate he's not half as bad as people have said he is?

    When I was a child my Dad took me skiing and, frankly, it was something that often scared me. I could be a timid skier, and that's no way to ski. If you hang back the weight comes off the front of your skis, and they can easily be knocked one way or the other - sending you sprawling onto your face. And that's how, at the age of nine, I managed to break the femur in my left leg.

    I wonder about Starmer. He's a timid politician. Sometimes playing safety first isn't safe. It betrays a lack of confidence in yourself and your convictions. If you don't have confidence in yourself, why should the electorate? I think there's a chance that Starmer's timidity will see him take a tumble during an election campaign and land flat on his face.

    Maybe the 7/1 available from William Hill on Conservative Most Seats is value?

    An interesting thesis, and worth some meditation. My initial reaction, though is that Starmer doesn't have to not stumble. He just has to stumble less than Sunak. So far he is clearing that bar.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,164

    Badenoch is not doing her leadership aspirations any favours this week.

    Apologies for making a betting post but, you know, PB and all that.

    She isn’t coming out of it well, but these stories surfacing in proximity usually means someone or ones on her own side is giving her the nobble…
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,492
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DominicPenna

    🚨 EXCLUSIVE

    Tory voters believe that only Penny Mordaunt could beat Sir Keir Starmer at the next election, a new poll suggests

    2019 Conservative supporters agree by 38% to 31% that Mordaunt has a better chance of victory than Rishi Sunak

    When a party that is way behind replaces a leader very late in the day and the new leader is found wanting such that their honeymoon period dissipates during a GE campaign -

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1993_Canadian_federal_election?wprov=sfla1

    Sunak will not deliver this result. Mordaunt might.
    Neither will, Truss might have
    Well she is still available. Isn't there sort of a wild card entry for the best loser from the previous rounds?
    Or indeed for previous winners.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,164
    HYUFD said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DominicPenna

    🚨 EXCLUSIVE

    Tory voters believe that only Penny Mordaunt could beat Sir Keir Starmer at the next election, a new poll suggests

    2019 Conservative supporters agree by 38% to 31% that Mordaunt has a better chance of victory than Rishi Sunak

    When a party that is way behind replaces a leader very late in the day and the new leader is found wanting such that their honeymoon period dissipates during a GE campaign -

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1993_Canadian_federal_election?wprov=sfla1

    Sunak will not deliver this result. Mordaunt might.
    Neither will, Truss might have
    Lol. Once we had been assured that she would surprise on the upside, she was fatally doomed.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Pro_Rata said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DominicPenna

    🚨 EXCLUSIVE

    Tory voters believe that only Penny Mordaunt could beat Sir Keir Starmer at the next election, a new poll suggests

    2019 Conservative supporters agree by 38% to 31% that Mordaunt has a better chance of victory than Rishi Sunak

    When a party that is way behind replaces a leader very late in the day and the new leader is found wanting such that their honeymoon period dissipates during a GE campaign -

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1993_Canadian_federal_election?wprov=sfla1

    Sunak will not deliver this result. Mordaunt might.
    😂 day after day, week after week, month after month, every time Sunak is threatened PBers come out with unsubstantiated claims like this previous post, that only keeping Sunak can the best result be attained. Normally the arguments built around the ludicrously and damage of another desperate leader change, without factoring in the relief of the nation being rid of PM Sunak, that could no longer be a factor for voters at the General Election.

    Truth is, and we can all agree on this - No one knows. It’s a great unknown. Nothing really to draw on. However One fact that, just looking at Sunak’s ratings now worse than Corbyn’s, when PM hated as much as Sunak now is, leaves number 10, there’s a collective sigh of relief from his own voters not just floaters and opponents, that probably would give Penny a honeymoon boost right through the election, most probably to a far better result Sunak is capable of getting now.

    Excuse me whilst I do another laughter emoji 🤣 what on earth do you people still see in Sunak that you rush to protect him? The sighting and hearing Sunak now is grating with 90% of the electorate he voted this governmrnt. He should never have been PM.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Pro_Rata said:

    One thing I found out tonight, the Jews invented beer. That’s where He Brew comes from.

    I think archaeology dates the oldest brewhouse in the world to Albania. The evidence suggests it was a doubly fermented light beer, not too dissimilar to a modern Pale Ale.

    This discovery has been termed dual IPA.
    General Waste invented the dust bin!
    Colonel Pemberton invented Coca-Cola
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Scott_xP said:

    @DominicPenna

    🚨 EXCLUSIVE

    Tory voters believe that only Penny Mordaunt could beat Sir Keir Starmer at the next election, a new poll suggests

    2019 Conservative supporters agree by 38% to 31% that Mordaunt has a better chance of victory than Rishi Sunak

    Didn’t this lot rate Sunak not so long ago? Mordaunt is too left wing to control the Tory party, they’ll eat her alive.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Pro_Rata said:

    One thing I found out tonight, the Jews invented beer. That’s where He Brew comes from.

    I think archaeology dates the oldest brewhouse in the world to Albania. The evidence suggests it was a doubly fermented light beer, not too dissimilar to a modern Pale Ale.

    This discovery has been termed dual IPA.
    Did the Saffers invent laager?

    I really don't want to get into a row about who invented bitter.
    It would be a bitter row?
  • @stodge

    Saw this outside Wanstead Park* station yesterday:



    (* technically Forest Gate North, nowhere near Wanstead Park!)
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,639
    TimS said:

    ajb said:

    The swing from Tories to Labour during the 2017 general election campaign was 8%, in the opinion polls, and then an extra 2% due to opinion poll error.

    If we applied that election campaign swing to the current opinion polls, but in the Tories favour, the Tories would have a slender 2% lead, perhaps around 310 seats, and you'd think that Labour, Lib Dems and assorted Celtic Nationalists, would have enough votes to win a vote of no confidence in a Tory minority government, but it would be close.

    Could Labour have an election campaign as bad as Theresa May in 2017? Does Sunak have the potential to convince the electorate he's not half as bad as people have said he is?

    When I was a child my Dad took me skiing and, frankly, it was something that often scared me. I could be a timid skier, and that's no way to ski. If you hang back the weight comes off the front of your skis, and they can easily be knocked one way or the other - sending you sprawling onto your face. And that's how, at the age of nine, I managed to break the femur in my left leg.

    I wonder about Starmer. He's a timid politician. Sometimes playing safety first isn't safe. It betrays a lack of confidence in yourself and your convictions. If you don't have confidence in yourself, why should the electorate? I think there's a chance that Starmer's timidity will see him take a tumble during an election campaign and land flat on his face.

    Maybe the 7/1 available from William Hill on Conservative Most Seats is value?

    An interesting thesis, and worth some meditation. My initial reaction, though is that Starmer doesn't have to not stumble. He just has to stumble less than Sunak. So far he is clearing that bar.
    I’m not convinced Starmer is timid. He’s established something akin to an iron grip of the Labour Party. He’s expelled dozens of the far left including the former party leader secured the NEC, taken stances on issues like Gaza and taxation that are calculated to infuriate half of his party, and he patiently picked apart the apparently untouchable Johnson from the height of his powers to his post-partygate nadir.

    The timidity, such as it is, relates to not steering a radical course ahead of the election, but even that is a kind of calculated timidity.
    Starmer is possibly the technocrat that Sunak pretends to be and isn't.
  • AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    TimS said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DominicPenna

    🚨 EXCLUSIVE

    Tory voters believe that only Penny Mordaunt could beat Sir Keir Starmer at the next election, a new poll suggests

    2019 Conservative supporters agree by 38% to 31% that Mordaunt has a better chance of victory than Rishi Sunak

    When a party that is way behind replaces a leader very late in the day and the new leader is found wanting such that their honeymoon period dissipates during a GE campaign -

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1993_Canadian_federal_election?wprov=sfla1

    Sunak will not deliver this result. Mordaunt might.
    😂 day after day, week after week, month after month, every time Sunak is threatened PBers come out with unsubstantiated claims like this previous post, that only keeping Sunak can the best result be attained. Normally the arguments built around the ludicrously and damage of another desperate leader change, without factoring in the relief of the nation being rid of PM Sunak, that could no longer be a factor for voters at the General Election.

    Truth is, and we can all agree on this - No one knows. It’s a great unknown. Nothing really to draw on. However One fact that, just looking at Sunak’s ratings now worse than Corbyn’s, when PM hated as much as Sunak now is, leaves number 10, there’s a collective sigh of relief from his own voters not just floaters and opponents, that probably would give Penny a honeymoon boost right through the election, most probably to a far better result Sunak is capable of getting now.

    Excuse me whilst I do another laughter emoji 🤣 what on earth do you people still see in Sunak that you rush to protect him? The sighting and hearing Sunak now is grating with 90% of the electorate he voted this governmrnt. He should never have been PM.
    Both arguments are wrong.

    What people are tired of is the Tories. It doesn’t matter what leader they have. The sigh of relief will come when the party - not any particular leader - is shown the door.
    The Tories think they can beat Starmer because of this. But the truth is that “none of the above” right now translates to Keir Starmer by default.

    My personal hypothesis is that Starmer would have achieved a Hung Parliament in 2019.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 761
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DominicPenna

    🚨 EXCLUSIVE

    Tory voters believe that only Penny Mordaunt could beat Sir Keir Starmer at the next election, a new poll suggests

    2019 Conservative supporters agree by 38% to 31% that Mordaunt has a better chance of victory than Rishi Sunak

    Something they would have done well to have worked out somewhat earlier, perhaps?

    The mistake they made was not getting all the contenders to stand about holding a sword for a few hours, to see what they are truly made of.
    In the defence of Tory members, the two options they were given to choose between have proven to both be crap - either acutely or chronically so. So they didn't stand much of a chance.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    TimS said:

    ajb said:

    The swing from Tories to Labour during the 2017 general election campaign was 8%, in the opinion polls, and then an extra 2% due to opinion poll error.

    If we applied that election campaign swing to the current opinion polls, but in the Tories favour, the Tories would have a slender 2% lead, perhaps around 310 seats, and you'd think that Labour, Lib Dems and assorted Celtic Nationalists, would have enough votes to win a vote of no confidence in a Tory minority government, but it would be close.

    Could Labour have an election campaign as bad as Theresa May in 2017? Does Sunak have the potential to convince the electorate he's not half as bad as people have said he is?

    When I was a child my Dad took me skiing and, frankly, it was something that often scared me. I could be a timid skier, and that's no way to ski. If you hang back the weight comes off the front of your skis, and they can easily be knocked one way or the other - sending you sprawling onto your face. And that's how, at the age of nine, I managed to break the femur in my left leg.

    I wonder about Starmer. He's a timid politician. Sometimes playing safety first isn't safe. It betrays a lack of confidence in yourself and your convictions. If you don't have confidence in yourself, why should the electorate? I think there's a chance that Starmer's timidity will see him take a tumble during an election campaign and land flat on his face.

    Maybe the 7/1 available from William Hill on Conservative Most Seats is value?

    An interesting thesis, and worth some meditation. My initial reaction, though is that Starmer doesn't have to not stumble. He just has to stumble less than Sunak. So far he is clearing that bar.
    I’m not convinced Starmer is timid. He’s established something akin to an iron grip of the Labour Party. He’s expelled dozens of the far left including the former party leader secured the NEC, taken stances on issues like Gaza and taxation that are calculated to infuriate half of his party, and he patiently picked apart the apparently untouchable Johnson from the height of his powers to his post-partygate nadir.

    The timidity, such as it is, relates to not steering a radical course ahead of the election, but even that is a kind of calculated timidity.
    Starmer has been pretty effective and his direct contributions such as keeping up the pressure on party gate have proven decisive. He quietly, methodically took the Tories apart countless times. Underestimated as LoO. His biggest achievement is the team he has assembled, again quietly, behind him.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,940
    Apparently David Irving has died, prompting this anecdote:

    https://x.com/dinahglrosekc/status/1760046400052556011

    My husband was in court, watching the libel trial Irving disastrously pursued against Penguin and Deborah Lipstadt, when, in one of the greatest Freudian slips of all time, he accidentally addressed the judge as Mein Fuehrer.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,540
    TimS said:

    ajb said:

    The swing from Tories to Labour during the 2017 general election campaign was 8%, in the opinion polls, and then an extra 2% due to opinion poll error.

    If we applied that election campaign swing to the current opinion polls, but in the Tories favour, the Tories would have a slender 2% lead, perhaps around 310 seats, and you'd think that Labour, Lib Dems and assorted Celtic Nationalists, would have enough votes to win a vote of no confidence in a Tory minority government, but it would be close.

    Could Labour have an election campaign as bad as Theresa May in 2017? Does Sunak have the potential to convince the electorate he's not half as bad as people have said he is?

    When I was a child my Dad took me skiing and, frankly, it was something that often scared me. I could be a timid skier, and that's no way to ski. If you hang back the weight comes off the front of your skis, and they can easily be knocked one way or the other - sending you sprawling onto your face. And that's how, at the age of nine, I managed to break the femur in my left leg.

    I wonder about Starmer. He's a timid politician. Sometimes playing safety first isn't safe. It betrays a lack of confidence in yourself and your convictions. If you don't have confidence in yourself, why should the electorate? I think there's a chance that Starmer's timidity will see him take a tumble during an election campaign and land flat on his face.

    Maybe the 7/1 available from William Hill on Conservative Most Seats is value?

    An interesting thesis, and worth some meditation. My initial reaction, though is that Starmer doesn't have to not stumble. He just has to stumble less than Sunak. So far he is clearing that bar.
    I’m not convinced Starmer is timid. He’s established something akin to an iron grip of the Labour Party. He’s expelled dozens of the far left including the former party leader secured the NEC, taken stances on issues like Gaza and taxation that are calculated to infuriate half of his party, and he patiently picked apart the apparently untouchable Johnson from the height of his powers to his post-partygate nadir.

    The timidity, such as it is, relates to not steering a radical course ahead of the election, but even that is a kind of calculated timidity.
    Basic tactics: Never interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake. The problem for Starmer is when the Tories make mistakes on almost a daily basis it does leave open the accusations that Starmer is too passive. But the tactic is still correct.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,510
    Boris needs money, but I'm happy to call bullshit on this one. Why do these people simp for Putin when Putin despises them?

    Tucker Carlson claims that Boris Johnson demanded a million dollars from him for an interview, which makes him “a lot sleazier than Vladimir Putin.”
    https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1760071449329463374?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,869
    FPT @DavidL

    ”Stanford in particular seemed to have marked disapproval of highly educated, very hard working Chinese kids whom they regarded as robots missing creativity, spontaneity, imagination etc and who got marked down despite their really exceptional results. Its a tough old system.”

    Stanford has a very dark [sic] history when it comes to racial selection and eugenics.

    The fact that they were secretly funded by the imperial family in Japan (in the 1930s) may have played a part in their long-standing antipathy to “highly educated very hard working Chinese kids”
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,094

    Lewis Goodall
    @lewis_goodall

    Grim news from Birmingham today. City Council has announced cuts to deal with effective insolvency notice. Includes:

    -sale of £750m of assets
    -cuts of to public services by £300m over two years
    -21% rise in Council Tax
    -dimming street lights
    -fortnightly bin collections
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Badenoch is not doing her leadership aspirations any favours this week.

    Apologies for making a betting post but, you know, PB and all that.

    Alternatively, a fighter, a bruiser, not going down without a fight - aren’t these the most popular characteristics party members look for in their favourite politicians?

    Unless you are referring to her laziness, arrogance, and growing sense she is being economical with the truth?

    Will be interesting how she responds to the Canadians, as that’s very serious claim too - straightforward lying to the house isn’t it? And not a response where she can come out undiplomatically swinging and being rude.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,127

    The swing from Tories to Labour during the 2017 general election campaign was 8%, in the opinion polls, and then an extra 2% due to opinion poll error.

    If we applied that election campaign swing to the current opinion polls, but in the Tories favour, the Tories would have a slender 2% lead, perhaps around 310 seats, and you'd think that Labour, Lib Dems and assorted Celtic Nationalists, would have enough votes to win a vote of no confidence in a Tory minority government, but it would be close.

    Could Labour have an election campaign as bad as Theresa May in 2017? Does Sunak have the potential to convince the electorate he's not half as bad as people have said he is?

    When I was a child my Dad took me skiing and, frankly, it was something that often scared me. I could be a timid skier, and that's no way to ski. If you hang back the weight comes off the front of your skis, and they can easily be knocked one way or the other - sending you sprawling onto your face. And that's how, at the age of nine, I managed to break the femur in my left leg.

    I wonder about Starmer. He's a timid politician. Sometimes playing safety first isn't safe. It betrays a lack of confidence in yourself and your convictions. If you don't have confidence in yourself, why should the electorate? I think there's a chance that Starmer's timidity will see him take a tumble during an election campaign and land flat on his face.

    Maybe the 7/1 available from William Hill on Conservative Most Seats is value?

    Not convinced by Labour either (not because I'm a Tory partisan, far from it, but because I have a whole series of reservations about the likelihood of the party performing as well as the current opinion polls suggest.

    I am trying to post a more fulsome reply but rubbish Vanilla keeps throwing these hugely painful "too many characters" tantrums, regardless of how short I cut the response. It is useless.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,127
    edited February 20
    pigeon said:

    Maybe the 7/1 available from William Hill on Conservative Most Seats is value?

    Not convinced by Labour either (not because I'm a Tory partisan, far from it, but because I have a whole series of reservations about the likelihood of the party performing as well as the current opinion polls suggest.

    I am trying to post a more fulsome reply but rubbish Vanilla keeps throwing these hugely painful "too many characters" tantrums, regardless of how short I cut the response. It is useless.
    Let's see if this works (EDIT: at last, it does!):

    In the end we're all guessing, aren't we? My main reservations concerning the probability of a Labour landslide are:

    1. Labour's determination to display fiscal rectitude (presumably in order to attempt to coax and reassure potential Tory switchers) has become so all-consuming that they've basically turned into a Cameron/Osborne tribute act, trumpeting austerity for all (except pensioners.) They won't raise taxation on capital gains, property or inheritances, which leaves them precious little extra cash to spend on the nation's myriad problems; I'm certain they're going to recommit to maintaining the bloody triple lock in perpetuity; and they've dismantled the central plank of their economic policy (the green energy plan) which leaves them with very little left to sell other than being Not Tories. Is that going to be sufficient to persuade younger voters to bother to turn out (or, for that matter, to get the Green vote to defect?) Not convinced.

    2. Are grumbling aged Tory voters going to sit on their hands, go off to RefUK in a huff or switch outright to Labour en masse? Not convinced about that either. The predecessors of RefUK have always done really badly in actual GE voting (because FPTP - the voters know they can't win anywhere so they're a wasted vote,) the Tory core (wealthy homeowners over 50) have mostly done very well indeed out of the last 14 years, and I expect the Tories to make at least some headway against Labour by chipping away at culture wars arguments (Brexit, immigration, transgender arguments, just throwing social conservative mud at Starmer and seeing what sticks.)

    3. I'm anticipating some kind of Conservative revival simply based on historical precedent. If they can't salvage something north of 30% of the popular vote then this would be unprecedented since the foundation of the party itself (i.e. since around about 1835 if memory serves.) John Major managed about 31% in 1997, and since then the median age of the electorate has increased. Moreover...

    4. Related to point 1, lack of enthusiasm for Labour and its leader (relative, say, to the more effective and optimistic campaigning of Tony Blair,) coupled with a lack of faith in politicians generally and their ability to achieve anything positive, points to the likelihood of a depressed turnout. Depressed turnout will disproportionately affect younger age groups, and make elderly, more Tory-sympathizing voters even more dominant. I wouldn't be at all surprised if turnout rivalled the historic lows of 2001, and certainly the majority of all votes cast will come from electors over the age of 55.

    But like I said, this is just guesswork. The Tories look on course for an almighty hiding, they deserve one, and perhaps they'll get it after all? I just have my doubts.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,639

    Badenoch is not doing her leadership aspirations any favours this week.

    Apologies for making a betting post but, you know, PB and all that.

    Has Badenoch done anything useful at all as government minister? I'm obviously excluding her anti woke agenda.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,873
    TimS said:

    ajb said:

    The swing from Tories to Labour during the 2017 general election campaign was 8%, in the opinion polls, and then an extra 2% due to opinion poll error.

    If we applied that election campaign swing to the current opinion polls, but in the Tories favour, the Tories would have a slender 2% lead, perhaps around 310 seats, and you'd think that Labour, Lib Dems and assorted Celtic Nationalists, would have enough votes to win a vote of no confidence in a Tory minority government, but it would be close.

    Could Labour have an election campaign as bad as Theresa May in 2017? Does Sunak have the potential to convince the electorate he's not half as bad as people have said he is?

    When I was a child my Dad took me skiing and, frankly, it was something that often scared me. I could be a timid skier, and that's no way to ski. If you hang back the weight comes off the front of your skis, and they can easily be knocked one way or the other - sending you sprawling onto your face. And that's how, at the age of nine, I managed to break the femur in my left leg.

    I wonder about Starmer. He's a timid politician. Sometimes playing safety first isn't safe. It betrays a lack of confidence in yourself and your convictions. If you don't have confidence in yourself, why should the electorate? I think there's a chance that Starmer's timidity will see him take a tumble during an election campaign and land flat on his face.

    Maybe the 7/1 available from William Hill on Conservative Most Seats is value?

    An interesting thesis, and worth some meditation. My initial reaction, though is that Starmer doesn't have to not stumble. He just has to stumble less than Sunak. So far he is clearing that bar.
    I’m not convinced Starmer is timid. He’s established something akin to an iron grip of the Labour Party. He’s expelled dozens of the far left including the former party leader secured the NEC, taken stances on issues like Gaza and taxation that are calculated to infuriate half of his party, and he patiently picked apart the apparently untouchable Johnson from the height of his powers to his post-partygate nadir.

    The timidity, such as it is, relates to not steering a radical course ahead of the election, but even that is a kind of calculated timidity.
    "Workers of the world unite; you have nothing to lose but your calculated timidity!"

    I'm not entirely sure it's doing it for me.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,639


    Lewis Goodall
    @lewis_goodall

    Grim news from Birmingham today. City Council has announced cuts to deal with effective insolvency notice. Includes:

    -sale of £750m of assets
    -cuts of to public services by £300m over two years
    -21% rise in Council Tax
    -dimming street lights
    -fortnightly bin collections

    Who will get the blame for this? The Labour council or Conservative central government. Birmingham is an important city for both parties.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,164
    ohnotnow said:

    TimS said:

    ajb said:

    The swing from Tories to Labour during the 2017 general election campaign was 8%, in the opinion polls, and then an extra 2% due to opinion poll error.

    If we applied that election campaign swing to the current opinion polls, but in the Tories favour, the Tories would have a slender 2% lead, perhaps around 310 seats, and you'd think that Labour, Lib Dems and assorted Celtic Nationalists, would have enough votes to win a vote of no confidence in a Tory minority government, but it would be close.

    Could Labour have an election campaign as bad as Theresa May in 2017? Does Sunak have the potential to convince the electorate he's not half as bad as people have said he is?

    When I was a child my Dad took me skiing and, frankly, it was something that often scared me. I could be a timid skier, and that's no way to ski. If you hang back the weight comes off the front of your skis, and they can easily be knocked one way or the other - sending you sprawling onto your face. And that's how, at the age of nine, I managed to break the femur in my left leg.

    I wonder about Starmer. He's a timid politician. Sometimes playing safety first isn't safe. It betrays a lack of confidence in yourself and your convictions. If you don't have confidence in yourself, why should the electorate? I think there's a chance that Starmer's timidity will see him take a tumble during an election campaign and land flat on his face.

    Maybe the 7/1 available from William Hill on Conservative Most Seats is value?

    An interesting thesis, and worth some meditation. My initial reaction, though is that Starmer doesn't have to not stumble. He just has to stumble less than Sunak. So far he is clearing that bar.
    I’m not convinced Starmer is timid. He’s established something akin to an iron grip of the Labour Party. He’s expelled dozens of the far left including the former party leader secured the NEC, taken stances on issues like Gaza and taxation that are calculated to infuriate half of his party, and he patiently picked apart the apparently untouchable Johnson from the height of his powers to his post-partygate nadir.

    The timidity, such as it is, relates to not steering a radical course ahead of the election, but even that is a kind of calculated timidity.
    "Workers of the world unite; you have nothing to lose but your calculated timidity!"

    I'm not entirely sure it's doing it for me.
    “We won’t spend any more money or solve any of your problems, either, but we’ll try and be a bit more sorry about it”…..
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,873
    FF43 said:

    Badenoch is not doing her leadership aspirations any favours this week.

    Apologies for making a betting post but, you know, PB and all that.

    Has Badenoch done anything useful at all as government minister? I'm obviously excluding her anti woke agenda.
    She seemed much more impressive when I knew nothing about her and had never heard her opine about anything.

    Like many a potential tory LOTO.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,309
    kle4 said:

    Boris needs money, but I'm happy to call bullshit on this one. Why do these people simp for Putin when Putin despises them?

    Tucker Carlson claims that Boris Johnson demanded a million dollars from him for an interview, which makes him “a lot sleazier than Vladimir Putin.”
    https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1760071449329463374?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

    Something Boris got right there. Kudos.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,745
    Why are British people working on the birth certificates of Jewish babies defacing their documents?

    Why does a young Jewish man with a five month old baby feel unsafe here?

    https://news.sky.com/story/father-whose-babys-birth-certificate-was-defaced-says-being-jewish-in-uk-is-getting-worse-13076282
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,940


    Lewis Goodall
    @lewis_goodall

    Grim news from Birmingham today. City Council has announced cuts to deal with effective insolvency notice. Includes:

    -sale of £750m of assets
    -cuts of to public services by £300m over two years
    -21% rise in Council Tax
    -dimming street lights
    -fortnightly bin collections

    Their liabilities for equal pay claims that look quite tenuous ought to make people question the premise of the legislation.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 2,873
    IanB2 said:

    ohnotnow said:

    TimS said:

    ajb said:

    The swing from Tories to Labour during the 2017 general election campaign was 8%, in the opinion polls, and then an extra 2% due to opinion poll error.

    If we applied that election campaign swing to the current opinion polls, but in the Tories favour, the Tories would have a slender 2% lead, perhaps around 310 seats, and you'd think that Labour, Lib Dems and assorted Celtic Nationalists, would have enough votes to win a vote of no confidence in a Tory minority government, but it would be close.

    Could Labour have an election campaign as bad as Theresa May in 2017? Does Sunak have the potential to convince the electorate he's not half as bad as people have said he is?

    When I was a child my Dad took me skiing and, frankly, it was something that often scared me. I could be a timid skier, and that's no way to ski. If you hang back the weight comes off the front of your skis, and they can easily be knocked one way or the other - sending you sprawling onto your face. And that's how, at the age of nine, I managed to break the femur in my left leg.

    I wonder about Starmer. He's a timid politician. Sometimes playing safety first isn't safe. It betrays a lack of confidence in yourself and your convictions. If you don't have confidence in yourself, why should the electorate? I think there's a chance that Starmer's timidity will see him take a tumble during an election campaign and land flat on his face.

    Maybe the 7/1 available from William Hill on Conservative Most Seats is value?

    An interesting thesis, and worth some meditation. My initial reaction, though is that Starmer doesn't have to not stumble. He just has to stumble less than Sunak. So far he is clearing that bar.
    I’m not convinced Starmer is timid. He’s established something akin to an iron grip of the Labour Party. He’s expelled dozens of the far left including the former party leader secured the NEC, taken stances on issues like Gaza and taxation that are calculated to infuriate half of his party, and he patiently picked apart the apparently untouchable Johnson from the height of his powers to his post-partygate nadir.

    The timidity, such as it is, relates to not steering a radical course ahead of the election, but even that is a kind of calculated timidity.
    "Workers of the world unite; you have nothing to lose but your calculated timidity!"

    I'm not entirely sure it's doing it for me.
    “We won’t spend any more money or solve any of your problems, either, but we’ll try and be a bit more sorry about it”…..
    Looking sad about screwing over the poor and diposessed, is roughly the vibe I have just now. Which is especially depressing as my constituency is a choice between LAB/SNP.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,309
    ohnotnow said:

    TimS said:

    ajb said:

    The swing from Tories to Labour during the 2017 general election campaign was 8%, in the opinion polls, and then an extra 2% due to opinion poll error.

    If we applied that election campaign swing to the current opinion polls, but in the Tories favour, the Tories would have a slender 2% lead, perhaps around 310 seats, and you'd think that Labour, Lib Dems and assorted Celtic Nationalists, would have enough votes to win a vote of no confidence in a Tory minority government, but it would be close.

    Could Labour have an election campaign as bad as Theresa May in 2017? Does Sunak have the potential to convince the electorate he's not half as bad as people have said he is?

    When I was a child my Dad took me skiing and, frankly, it was something that often scared me. I could be a timid skier, and that's no way to ski. If you hang back the weight comes off the front of your skis, and they can easily be knocked one way or the other - sending you sprawling onto your face. And that's how, at the age of nine, I managed to break the femur in my left leg.

    I wonder about Starmer. He's a timid politician. Sometimes playing safety first isn't safe. It betrays a lack of confidence in yourself and your convictions. If you don't have confidence in yourself, why should the electorate? I think there's a chance that Starmer's timidity will see him take a tumble during an election campaign and land flat on his face.

    Maybe the 7/1 available from William Hill on Conservative Most Seats is value?

    An interesting thesis, and worth some meditation. My initial reaction, though is that Starmer doesn't have to not stumble. He just has to stumble less than Sunak. So far he is clearing that bar.
    I’m not convinced Starmer is timid. He’s established something akin to an iron grip of the Labour Party. He’s expelled dozens of the far left including the former party leader secured the NEC, taken stances on issues like Gaza and taxation that are calculated to infuriate half of his party, and he patiently picked apart the apparently untouchable Johnson from the height of his powers to his post-partygate nadir.

    The timidity, such as it is, relates to not steering a radical course ahead of the election, but even that is a kind of calculated timidity.
    "Workers of the world unite; you have nothing to lose but your calculated timidity!"

    I'm not entirely sure it's doing it for me.
    The big question is what happens after the election.

    The most important thing is the economy. All else (well apart from having Trident missiles that actually work) is secondary to that. Labour will need a bit of luck.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,745

    Badenoch is not doing her leadership aspirations any favours this week.

    I watched her performance in the Commons on Monday on YouTube and I thought she did rather well. It was refreshing to see a Tory minister actually go on the offensive, rather than just being cowed.

    I found her version if events compelling and believable.

    Of course if it subsequently transpires she's lying, she's toast. But I don't think that will happen. I think she's telling the truth and the other guy it just bitter at being given the sack!

    Perhaps I'm naive?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,954
    edited February 20
    TimS said:

    ajb said:

    The swing from Tories to Labour during the 2017 general election campaign was 8%, in the opinion polls, and then an extra 2% due to opinion poll error.

    If we applied that election campaign swing to the current opinion polls, but in the Tories favour, the Tories would have a slender 2% lead, perhaps around 310 seats, and you'd think that Labour, Lib Dems and assorted Celtic Nationalists, would have enough votes to win a vote of no confidence in a Tory minority government, but it would be close.

    Could Labour have an election campaign as bad as Theresa May in 2017? Does Sunak have the potential to convince the electorate he's not half as bad as people have said he is?

    When I was a child my Dad took me skiing and, frankly, it was something that often scared me. I could be a timid skier, and that's no way to ski. If you hang back the weight comes off the front of your skis, and they can easily be knocked one way or the other - sending you sprawling onto your face. And that's how, at the age of nine, I managed to break the femur in my left leg.

    I wonder about Starmer. He's a timid politician. Sometimes playing safety first isn't safe. It betrays a lack of confidence in yourself and your convictions. If you don't have confidence in yourself, why should the electorate? I think there's a chance that Starmer's timidity will see him take a tumble during an election campaign and land flat on his face.

    Maybe the 7/1 available from William Hill on Conservative Most Seats is value?

    An interesting thesis, and worth some meditation. My initial reaction, though is that Starmer doesn't have to not stumble. He just has to stumble less than Sunak. So far he is clearing that bar.
    I’m not convinced Starmer is timid. He’s established something akin to an iron grip of the Labour Party. He’s expelled dozens of the far left including the former party leader secured the NEC, taken stances on issues like Gaza and taxation that are calculated to infuriate half of his party, and he patiently picked apart the apparently untouchable Johnson from the height of his powers to his post-partygate nadir.

    The timidity, such as it is, relates to not steering a radical course ahead of the election, but even that is a kind of calculated timidity.
    I suppose the one thing that stands out for me was his response to cancelling HS2. If he'd been a bit bolder then I think he could have built a strong argument about Labour still believing in the future of Britain, where the Tories had given up.

    I understand that he didn't do that because the Tories wanted him to step into the trap of promising to spend lots of money on HS2 - but I think that the Tory game-playing with HS2 was so desperate that it's the sort of trap that could have been made to blow up in their faces with a bit of confidence and optimism.

    I'm pretty confident Labour will romp home at the general election, but this was an idea I wanted to try out, see what it looked like under examination. I think the weakest link in the scenario is Sunak and the Tories - but then as a leftie I would think that.
  • Badenoch is not doing her leadership aspirations any favours this week.

    Apologies for making a betting post but, you know, PB and all that.

    Alternatively, a fighter, a bruiser, not going down without a fight - aren’t these the most popular characteristics party members look for in their favourite politicians?

    Unless you are referring to her laziness, arrogance, and growing sense she is being economical with the truth?

    Will be interesting how she responds to the Canadians, as that’s very serious claim too - straightforward lying to the house isn’t it? And not a response where she can come out undiplomatically swinging and being rude.
    Talking of Canada, one of the things that really stuffed Kim Campbell's campaign was offensively going on the offensive when trailing.

    I doubt that, when push comes to shove, Rishi will be prepared to be that nasty, though he can be snide enough. But if you want a last-minute leader who has a decent chance of turning defeat into disaster by saying something dumb, look no further than the business secretary.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,901
    Working in education I quite often have to tell kids they are both in the wrong.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,940
    dixiedean said:

    Working in education I quite often have to tell kids they are both in the wrong.

    Sunak needs to call them into his office: "It's not big and it's not clever!"
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,869
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Slightly less surprising detail in the thread header poll - in London 39% side with the Palestinians. This is part of Labour's "local difficulty" in some of its East London seats - the Newham Independents have confirmed they will be standing a candidate in East Ham against Stephen Timms at the GE.

    In 2005, Respect finished second with 20% of the vote and it'll be interesting to see if Mirza (not Mehmood but Tahir and no relation) can make any meaningful impression on Timms who scraped home in 2019 with a 33,000 majority.

    I suspect pro-Palestinian candidates will stand in a number of East London Labour seats including both Ilfords, East Ham, West Ham & Beckton, Stratford & Bow, Bethnal Green & Stepney and Poplar & Limehouse.

    Labour should be grateful that they are increasing the efficiency of its vote 😉
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,040
    JUST IN: Alexander Smirnov told the feds during an interview after his arrest that "officials associated with Russian intelligence" were involved in passing a story about Hunter Biden.
    https://twitter.com/alanfeuer/status/1760056078992081166
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,334
    edited February 20
    Still can't believe that Tucker Carlson was impressed by a trolley that was able to be secured using a coin, in Russia.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,036

    FPT @DavidL

    ”Stanford in particular seemed to have marked disapproval of highly educated, very hard working Chinese kids whom they regarded as robots missing creativity, spontaneity, imagination etc and who got marked down despite their really exceptional results. Its a tough old system.”

    Stanford has a very dark [sic] history when it comes to racial selection and eugenics.

    The fact that they were secretly funded by the imperial family in Japan (in the 1930s) may have played a part in their long-standing antipathy to “highly educated very hard working Chinese kids”

    It’s more that if they applied even admission standards, then in the words of a Harvard admissions officer, the intake would be “Chinese, legacies and some Jews”.

    Using racist stereotypes about Chinese parenting helps them justify their admissions policies.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,869
    TimS said:

    kle4 said:

    Boris needs money, but I'm happy to call bullshit on this one. Why do these people simp for Putin when Putin despises them?

    Tucker Carlson claims that Boris Johnson demanded a million dollars from him for an interview, which makes him “a lot sleazier than Vladimir Putin.”
    https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1760071449329463374?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

    Something Boris got right there. Kudos.
    It’s also totally disingenuous

    If Carlson worked, for example, for the NYT he would be doing his job getting an interview. Boris would be getting something (presumably intangible) but the balance would be essentially even.

    In this case, Carlson is making - I assume - a bunch of money from the interview. Boris is just asking for a share of the proceeds. That’s an entirely reasonable commercial request.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,869
    edited February 20
    Andy_JS said:

    Still can't believe that Tucker Carlson was impressed by a trolley that was able to be secured using a coin, in Russia.

    Have you seen the price of trollies in the US. $10-15 and you need a credit card!

    I’d be ecstatic about a trolley that only needed a coin…
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,869

    FPT @DavidL

    ”Stanford in particular seemed to have marked disapproval of highly educated, very hard working Chinese kids whom they regarded as robots missing creativity, spontaneity, imagination etc and who got marked down despite their really exceptional results. Its a tough old system.”

    Stanford has a very dark [sic] history when it comes to racial selection and eugenics.

    The fact that they were secretly funded by the imperial family in Japan (in the 1930s) may have played a part in their long-standing antipathy to “highly educated very hard working Chinese kids”

    It’s more that if they applied even admission standards, then in the words of a Harvard admissions officer, the intake would be “Chinese, legacies and some Jews”.

    Using racist stereotypes about Chinese parenting helps them justify their admissions policies.
    For context:

    https://stanforddaily.com/2016/12/07/stanfords-history-with-eugenics/

    Stamford is not a good place - riddled with dodgy beliefs and significant funded by the US government through defence assignments.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,036
    a
    dixiedean said:

    Working in education I quite often have to tell kids they are both in the wrong.

    From University, I can recall occasions when the faculty, the administrators *and* some students were in the wrong.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,127
    FF43 said:


    Lewis Goodall
    @lewis_goodall

    Grim news from Birmingham today. City Council has announced cuts to deal with effective insolvency notice. Includes:

    -sale of £750m of assets
    -cuts of to public services by £300m over two years
    -21% rise in Council Tax
    -dimming street lights
    -fortnightly bin collections

    Who will get the blame for this? The Labour council or Conservative central government. Birmingham is an important city for both parties.
    It'll be both. The root cause of the decay of local government finance is Conservative neglect, BUT firstly Labour are the incumbents at the time of collapse (and the resultant unpopular decision making,) secondly I believe (although I may be wrong, if someone wishes to offer a bit more background on the equal pay fiasco) that it also blew up on their watch, and thirdly - and perhaps most crucially - the Labour leadership at Westminster seems to have precious little interest in rescuing councils. I suspect this is because they enjoy deflecting blame onto local politicians as much as Tory MPs do, and because it would involve spending a lot of money. Item 1: spending as little money as possible allows them to show how "responsible" they are. Item 2: especially given how much earned incomes have been pilfered already, Labour can only really raise large amounts of extra cash by raiding asset wealth. This would upset rich businessmen and older homeowners, who are the two groups in society who have to be indulged at all times.
  • IanB2 said:

    ohnotnow said:

    TimS said:

    ajb said:

    The swing from Tories to Labour during the 2017 general election campaign was 8%, in the opinion polls, and then an extra 2% due to opinion poll error.

    If we applied that election campaign swing to the current opinion polls, but in the Tories favour, the Tories would have a slender 2% lead, perhaps around 310 seats, and you'd think that Labour, Lib Dems and assorted Celtic Nationalists, would have enough votes to win a vote of no confidence in a Tory minority government, but it would be close.

    Could Labour have an election campaign as bad as Theresa May in 2017? Does Sunak have the potential to convince the electorate he's not half as bad as people have said he is?

    When I was a child my Dad took me skiing and, frankly, it was something that often scared me. I could be a timid skier, and that's no way to ski. If you hang back the weight comes off the front of your skis, and they can easily be knocked one way or the other - sending you sprawling onto your face. And that's how, at the age of nine, I managed to break the femur in my left leg.

    I wonder about Starmer. He's a timid politician. Sometimes playing safety first isn't safe. It betrays a lack of confidence in yourself and your convictions. If you don't have confidence in yourself, why should the electorate? I think there's a chance that Starmer's timidity will see him take a tumble during an election campaign and land flat on his face.

    Maybe the 7/1 available from William Hill on Conservative Most Seats is value?

    An interesting thesis, and worth some meditation. My initial reaction, though is that Starmer doesn't have to not stumble. He just has to stumble less than Sunak. So far he is clearing that bar.
    I’m not convinced Starmer is timid. He’s established something akin to an iron grip of the Labour Party. He’s expelled dozens of the far left including the former party leader secured the NEC, taken stances on issues like Gaza and taxation that are calculated to infuriate half of his party, and he patiently picked apart the apparently untouchable Johnson from the height of his powers to his post-partygate nadir.

    The timidity, such as it is, relates to not steering a radical course ahead of the election, but even that is a kind of calculated timidity.
    "Workers of the world unite; you have nothing to lose but your calculated timidity!"

    I'm not entirely sure it's doing it for me.
    “We won’t spend any more money or solve any of your problems, either, but we’ll try and be a bit more sorry about it”…..
    You could solve a lot of problems without spending much money.

    This country actually is in a pretty reasonable position overall, yes we have not much money to spend, but nor do we have masses and masses of millions of people unemployed.

    The biggest problem in this country is that people working full time can't afford a decent standard of living because they can't afford the roof over their head. That there's a major divide between those who have to pay for their home, and those who don't. An even bigger divide between those who have to pay for their home, and those who make their income that way.

    If Starmer wins a big majority and takes on the NIMBYs in the same way that Thatcher took on the miners, then that would be brave but also the right thing to do and could cement him as one of the greatest Prime Ministers this country has seen at actually fixing our problems as they are today.

    And it wouldn't cost a penny of taxpayers money.

    [Not holding my breath though].
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,334

    Andy_JS said:

    Still can't believe that Tucker Carlson was impressed by a trolley that was able to be secured using a coin, in Russia.

    Have you seen the price of trollies in the US. $10-15 and you need a credit card!

    I’d be ecstatic about a trolley that only needed a coin…
    Do you mean to buy one or just to use it in a supermarket? It's still £1 in the UK, although many supermarkets don't bother with it.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,266
    GIN1138 said:
    Should be regarded as an anti-Semitic act in my view - we can't possibly know what Amy Winehouse would have made of the current situation in Gaza, so to deface her monument in this way can only be about her Jewishness.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,040
    Nigelb said:

    JUST IN: Alexander Smirnov told the feds during an interview after his arrest that "officials associated with Russian intelligence" were involved in passing a story about Hunter Biden.
    https://twitter.com/alanfeuer/status/1760056078992081166

    Guess what .. the Democrats were right.

    Last year, Senator Grassley touted the now indicted informant. During the same speech he complained that Judiciary Committee Democrats described his investigation Russian disinformation. According to court filings, the source he’s referencing here has ties to Russian intelligence
    https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1760065469779005886
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,745

    GIN1138 said:
    Should be regarded as an anti-Semitic act in my view - we can't possibly know what Amy Winehouse would have made of the current situation in Gaza, so to deface her monument in this way can only be about her Jewishness.
    There seems to be a pattern of behaviour going on in London at the moment?

    I live in the middle of rural central England, so London is as remote to me as Kuala Lumur really, but it seems very concerning what's happening in the capitol and I wonder where this is all going once the Tories are turfed out and Labour hold sway? 🤷‍♂️
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited February 21
    Guardian has some Tory swing to Lab seat analysis.

    What strikes me is we could be looking at utter gibberish.

    The Elephant in the room here isn’t Labour taking about the same 14% of Con vote 2019 Blair got in 1997 - which will be poor for Starmer considering Blair started with so many more seats so Starmer should easily beat Blair’s voter flipping as he has more to go after - the elephant in the room is when analysis use the vote and % Tories got last time as the starting point to calculating what fall on which swing, that isn’t actually the starting point if we believe the polls and by elections. Analysis that treats it as just Con v Lab battle, and it’s the swing between those two that matters, overlooks polling telling us 14% is lost Con to Ref, analysis must first subtract almost a sixth from all Tory 2019 totals, and then calculate the Con > Lab swing on that lower figure.

    Mourdant going on a 17% swing becomes lot less than 17% if simultaneously losing 1 in 6 voters to another party other than Labour, ditto Mogg apparently vulnerable on 15% swing, it won’t need to be as much as 15% if he ships votes to Ref. Labour could get less votes than last time and still take Con seats, they wouldn’t need any Con > Lab swing, just stand still, if Conservatives drop 1 in 6 voters to Ref.

    So if you do the analysis properly, my way, take 1 sixth from Tory total last time, you give Labour seats on no swing to them!

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2024/feb/20/general-election-uk-opinion-polls-seats-tories-lose
  • Jonathan said:

    TimS said:

    ajb said:

    The swing from Tories to Labour during the 2017 general election campaign was 8%, in the opinion polls, and then an extra 2% due to opinion poll error.

    If we applied that election campaign swing to the current opinion polls, but in the Tories favour, the Tories would have a slender 2% lead, perhaps around 310 seats, and you'd think that Labour, Lib Dems and assorted Celtic Nationalists, would have enough votes to win a vote of no confidence in a Tory minority government, but it would be close.

    Could Labour have an election campaign as bad as Theresa May in 2017? Does Sunak have the potential to convince the electorate he's not half as bad as people have said he is?

    When I was a child my Dad took me skiing and, frankly, it was something that often scared me. I could be a timid skier, and that's no way to ski. If you hang back the weight comes off the front of your skis, and they can easily be knocked one way or the other - sending you sprawling onto your face. And that's how, at the age of nine, I managed to break the femur in my left leg.

    I wonder about Starmer. He's a timid politician. Sometimes playing safety first isn't safe. It betrays a lack of confidence in yourself and your convictions. If you don't have confidence in yourself, why should the electorate? I think there's a chance that Starmer's timidity will see him take a tumble during an election campaign and land flat on his face.

    Maybe the 7/1 available from William Hill on Conservative Most Seats is value?

    An interesting thesis, and worth some meditation. My initial reaction, though is that Starmer doesn't have to not stumble. He just has to stumble less than Sunak. So far he is clearing that bar.
    I’m not convinced Starmer is timid. He’s established something akin to an iron grip of the Labour Party. He’s expelled dozens of the far left including the former party leader secured the NEC, taken stances on issues like Gaza and taxation that are calculated to infuriate half of his party, and he patiently picked apart the apparently untouchable Johnson from the height of his powers to his post-partygate nadir.

    The timidity, such as it is, relates to not steering a radical course ahead of the election, but even that is a kind of calculated timidity.
    Starmer has been pretty effective and his direct contributions such as keeping up the pressure on party gate have proven decisive. He quietly, methodically took the Tories apart countless times. Underestimated as LoO. His biggest achievement is the team he has assembled, again quietly, behind him.
    Barrister Sir Keir Starmer used his forensic legal skills to do to Boris and the Conservatives what they hoped barrister Michael Howard would do to Blair and Labour. Unfortunately, Howard was a Cambridge-educated lawyer.

    Starmer's weakness is he cannot think on his feet and so it is possible a clever question might trip him up during the election campaign. For that reason, I wonder if Starmer will follow Cameron and Boris and decline debates and interviews.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,136
    edited February 21
    Child, 9, arrested for fatally shooting man in the head
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2024/02/20/utah-child-shooting-family-tooele-gun-laws/ (£££)

    Only in America.
  • American woman faces 20 years in Russian jail for 'treason' after donating $50 to Ukraine war effort
    Ksenia Karelina was detained on a trip back to Russia to see her parents

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/02/20/russian-secret-service-arrest-american-woman-high-treason/ (£££)

    Only in Russia.

    Note that the KGB is pretty thorough in keeping records of its citizens abroad.

  • Only in the Telegraph.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,136
    edited February 21
    Don’t dry your iPhone in rice – do this instead, says Apple
    ...
    A guide to fixing soaked phones newly published on Apple’s website warns users: “Don’t put your iPhone in a bag of rice. Doing so could allow small particles of rice to damage your iPhone.”

    While the guidance flies in the face of folk wisdom, it appears to confirm tests that suggest rice is a poor way of absorbing moisture from a stricken phone.

    Apple’s guidance also states that users should not try to dry out iPhones using a hairdryer, or by inserting absorbent items into ports.

    Instead, it says people should tap their phones with the charging port facing down to allow water to trickle out and wait.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/20/drying-iphone-in-rice-could-cause-more-damage-apple/ (£££)

    Here is the original Apple advice:
    https://support.apple.com/en-us/102643
  • Tucker Carlson vs Boris Johnson.
    It's all kicking off between Leon's favourites.
    1. Tucker interviewed Putin (or at least was in the same room while Putin spoke for hours)
    2. Boris called Tucker a tool of the Kremlin
    3. Tucker asked Boris for an interview
    4. Boris asked Tucker for $1 million
    5. Tucker accused Boris of stopping a peace deal between Russia & Ukraine at the behest of the US Government, and therefore causing the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people
    https://twitter.com/theblaze/status/1760038147755303374
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,940

    Tucker Carlson vs Boris Johnson.
    It's all kicking off between Leon's favourites.

    1. Tucker interviewed Putin (or at least was in the same room while Putin spoke for hours)
    2. Boris called Tucker a tool of the Kremlin
    3. Tucker asked Boris for an interview
    4. Boris asked Tucker for $1 million
    5. Tucker accused Boris of stopping a peace deal between Russia & Ukraine at the behest of the US Government, and therefore causing the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people
    https://twitter.com/theblaze/status/1760038147755303374
    That sets the bar for a bidding war for the big US interview with Boris Johnson. :)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,136
    edited February 21
    NAVY FLOP British nuclear sub missile launch FAILS as Trident misfires and ‘plops’ into sea just yards away – with Shapps on board
    Details of the misfire are not being made public on the grounds of 'national security'
    ...
    The second failed launch in a row – after a misfire in 2016 – happened while Defence Secretary Grant Shapps was on board HMS Vanguard to witness the test.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/26070479/trident-nuke-sub-missile-launch-fails/

    Funny how this follows Russia threatening to nuke London but it looks like we need not have worried about Jeremy Corbyn writing "the letters".
  • The Daily Star is the only paper to lead on science news.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,045

    LOL.

    By the 32nd and final day of his libel trial, David Irving was tired from the strain of representing himself in court.

    His exhaustion helped to undermine his claim that he was a seeker of historical truth rather than a Hitler worshipper when, at a weary moment, he mistakenly addressed the judge as Mein Führer.


    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2000/apr/12/uk.irving1

    What’s even funnier is that he tried to deny saying it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,040

    NAVY FLOP British nuclear sub missile launch FAILS as Trident misfires and ‘plops’ into sea just yards away – with Shapps on board
    Details of the misfire are not being made public on the grounds of 'national security'
    ...
    The second failed launch in a row – after a misfire in 2016 – happened while Defence Secretary Grant Shapps was on board HMS Vanguard to witness the test.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/26070479/trident-nuke-sub-missile-launch-fails/

    Funny how this follows Russia threatening to nuke London but it looks like we need not have worried about Jeremy Corbyn writing "the letters".

    Jonah Shapps.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,040
    .

    Tucker Carlson vs Boris Johnson.
    It's all kicking off between Leon's favourites.

    1. Tucker interviewed Putin (or at least was in the same room while Putin spoke for hours)
    2. Boris called Tucker a tool of the Kremlin
    3. Tucker asked Boris for an interview
    4. Boris asked Tucker for $1 million
    5. Tucker accused Boris of stopping a peace deal between Russia & Ukraine at the behest of the US Government, and therefore causing the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people
    https://twitter.com/theblaze/status/1760038147755303374
    Is Tucker a Russian agent of influence, or just an idiot ?

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,040
    One could ask the same of Elon Musk.

    THERE IS A FUCKING SPECIAL INSPECTOR GENERAL FOR UKRAINE HOLY SHIT

    CAN ANY OF YOU ABSOLUTE MORONS EVEN USE FUCKING GOOGLE

    THEY RELEASED AN ENTIRE 158-PAGE REPORT ON UKRAINE AID OVERSIGHT ABOUT 5 DAYS AGO

    AM I LOSING MY FUCKING MIND

    https://twitter.com/GravitysRa1nbow/status/1760079228333183045
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,040
    Sounds like a confession.

    Ingraham: Why didn’t you just hand over the classified documents when they requested them?

    Trump: I didn’t have to hand them over.

    https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1760105965074973081
This discussion has been closed.