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I agree with David Gauke – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 12 in General
I agree with David Gauke – politicalbetting.com

Why Priti Patel might be the next Conservative leader*. My piece for ?@NewStatesman? on the leadership pitch that the Tory right might find persuasive.*As opposed to why she should be leader. FTAOD this is not an unlikely endorsement. https://t.co/tnwcWHiUQH

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,138
    Maybe we could unseat her before that happens? Her majority is 24,082 which is a lot but Witham is gentrifying, there's a cafe now with cream teas and mozzarella and pesto and they have little pottery things that you can paint.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,193
    edited February 18
    This is a really good tip.

    It doesn’t mean she herself is attractive to voters or that she will ever be PM. It’s about the tory membership's proclivities after their inevitable (and likely crushing) defeat. It’s a betting tip and it’s a really good one, especially at those odds.

    Thanks @TSE
  • Gauke's scenario depends on Boris and Farage recommending the Pritster. I'm not sure either would be keen to recommend her until she has the nomination sewn up by which time it will be irrelevant. Boris in particular is more socially liberal and pro-immigration than Patel, and might also still harbour dreams of his own return.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,880
    33-1 are very attractive odds.

    Good call
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,169
    This isn't a market I'm playing in until after the GE.

    So much depends on what the rump looks like, and the reaction to that defeat.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,763

    This isn't a market I'm playing in until after the GE.

    So much depends on what the rump looks like, and the reaction to that defeat.

    Yes, it depends on just how many are left, and who they are. Difficult to see much past Kemi Badenoch at the moment.
  • Clips of yesterday's Palestine rally again included the chant "no ceasefire, no vote" which might be electorally important, especially if it spreads from London to Rochdale whose by-election is on the 29th.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,763
    Oh dear, India are playing Bazball now, 15 off that over. The target is already over 400, and it will likely end up closer to 600.
  • Irish police have intercepted more than 500kg of crystal meth bound for Australia (more than a tonne in some accounts). There might be some relevance to PB.

    The men are in their 40s and include a high-profile businessman. The other man is understood to have political connections.
    https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/other/gardaí-continuing-to-search-properties-near-tralee-after-major-crystal-meth-seizure/ar-BB1iqLeB
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,880
    Sandpit said:

    This isn't a market I'm playing in until after the GE.

    So much depends on what the rump looks like, and the reaction to that defeat.

    Yes, it depends on just how many are left, and who they are. Difficult to see much past Kemi Badenoch at the moment.
    Patel shouldn't be favourite, but 33-1 is pretty good odds for a fairly formidable campaigner.
  • Post Office boss: I was told to stall compensation to help Tories
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/post-office-chairman-interview-henry-staunton-ws5k6sh9p (£££)
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,944
    PP seems to have disappeared from the public consciousness. If she wants to be leader of the tories' Unternehmen Werwolf she needs to be spouting crap on GB News and in the DM on the reg. She is not acting as if she wants it.

    It really depends on who is left after the mushroom clouds dissipate. The bigger the defeat, the loonier the new leader has to be. In a real wipe out, Four Eyes Badenoch isn't going to be loony enough as she is WEF adjacent and the blob is (literally) up to its bollocks in her.
  • Tory chicken run: more than 100 MPs could resign before election
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-party-100-mps-resign-uk-general-election-tbhv9w603 (£££)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,763

    Tory chicken run: more than 100 MPs could resign before election
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-party-100-mps-resign-uk-general-election-tbhv9w603 (£££)

    Didn’t the same happen in 2010 and 1997?

    It looks like a change election is coming, there’s new boundaries, and it’s better to plan ahead for a new life after politics, than be left in the same position as dozens of others the day after the election.
  • Sandpit said:

    Tory chicken run: more than 100 MPs could resign before election
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-party-100-mps-resign-uk-general-election-tbhv9w603 (£££)

    Didn’t the same happen in 2010 and 1997?

    It looks like a change election is coming, there’s new boundaries, and it’s better to plan ahead for a new life after politics, than be left in the same position as dozens of others the day after the election.
    Indeed, and with the Conservatives heading for defeat, there is no prospect of government roles for those left behind.
  • Sunak is warned spending squeeze could lead to Conservative party wipeout at election
    As fresh party infighting erupts after two byelection losses, the right are targeting public service funding to pay for tax cuts while others urge restraint

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/18/sunak-is-warned-spending-squeeze-could-lead-to-conservative-party-wipeout-at-election
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,876
    Dura_Ace said:

    PP seems to have disappeared from the public consciousness. If she wants to be leader of the tories' Unternehmen Werwolf she needs to be spouting crap on GB News and in the DM on the reg. She is not acting as if she wants it.

    It really depends on who is left after the mushroom clouds dissipate. The bigger the defeat, the loonier the new leader has to be. In a real wipe out, Four Eyes Badenoch isn't going to be loony enough as she is WEF adjacent and the blob is (literally) up to its bollocks in her.

    Do the safest seats correspond with the most right-wing MPs?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,455
    I’ve always slightly fancied her

    I know. Shoot me
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,455
    Mind you I slightly fancy Kemi as well. And yet not Suella

    So this all has to be priced in, surely
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,763

    Sandpit said:

    Tory chicken run: more than 100 MPs could resign before election
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-party-100-mps-resign-uk-general-election-tbhv9w603 (£££)

    Didn’t the same happen in 2010 and 1997?

    It looks like a change election is coming, there’s new boundaries, and it’s better to plan ahead for a new life after politics, than be left in the same position as dozens of others the day after the election.
    Indeed, and with the Conservatives heading for defeat, there is no prospect of government roles for those left behind.
    Yes, there’s only one ‘ministerial’ salary available to those in opposition, so for many it’ll be quite the comedown even if they’re re-elected.

    I know it’s fun to take the piss out of politicians, and we all had a good laugh at the remarkably honest George Freeman, but they’re still humans, and still have to make a living and pay their mortgages. For many, an MP job will have been a pay cut, and the salary affords a comfortable rather than a lavish lifestyle. The retirees will have mostly been elected in 2005 or 2010, and will be looking for a change of scenery having served in office for more than a decade.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,138

    Sandpit said:

    Tory chicken run: more than 100 MPs could resign before election
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-party-100-mps-resign-uk-general-election-tbhv9w603 (£££)

    Didn’t the same happen in 2010 and 1997?

    It looks like a change election is coming, there’s new boundaries, and it’s better to plan ahead for a new life after politics, than be left in the same position as dozens of others the day after the election.
    Indeed, and with the Conservatives heading for defeat, there is no prospect of government roles for those left behind.
    Right, is Patel even going to run? She's only ever been an MP under a Tory government. I doubt that opposition offers very enticing opportunities for corruption. You'd think she'd go back to tobacco lobbying or whatever.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,919

    Gauke's scenario depends on Boris and Farage recommending the Pritster. I'm not sure either would be keen to recommend her until she has the nomination sewn up by which time it will be irrelevant. Boris in particular is more socially liberal and pro-immigration than Patel, and might also still harbour dreams of his own return.

    When we are looking at two characters whose entire political modus operandi has been self-serving, self-promotion, why would they promote someone else? In other words, what's in it for Lord Farage and Lord Johnson?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,455
    SCARY article claiming Putin really might attack NATO

    https://www.ft.com/content/9828c5c5-2568-47ce-8253-a2d3a7cc9eba

    FT so ££

    Yesterday @Cicero was claiming Putin would use nukes
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,763
    150 for Yashasvi Jaiswal again. That’s three Test centuries for the 22-year-old opener, and all of them have been 150s.
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 194
    What I'd the voting pattern leaves the parliamentary party total made up of centrists and the jacobins all ejected? Surely that will suggest to the tories that the future lay with reorienting conservativism away from the boomers, brexiteerism and toxit nostalgia and towards a new kind of electoral compact with the millenials. To me reform is in reality a failure of the ukips to complete their Trojan horse attack on the conservatives. It is a retreat after trying to take over the party. I expect the jacobin bookers will scuttle over there to shake.thwir fists at the sky. But in 5 years' time old age will ensure there will be even fewer of those voters left to do anything. And in 10 years the notion of brexiteerism will be but a memory. It will take the tories at least two terms to come up with a winning strategy as they look for some new platform as their key demographic since the 80s finally exhales. 🤷
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,455
    edited February 18
    Phnom Penh is so extraordinarily cheap AND efficient

    Yesterday I asked a printing shop to print a 360 page document. Black and white. A4. One side per page. I emailed the document in word

    They have done this and today it has been delivered to my apartment block, across the city, with this visual proof pinging on to my iPad as I sip iced coffee across the road in a lovely leafy little cafe

    The total cost of all this has been $6.50 - that includes the printing. Not just the delivery




  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,455

    What I'd the voting pattern leaves the parliamentary party total made up of centrists and the jacobins all ejected? Surely that will suggest to the tories that the future lay with reorienting conservativism away from the boomers, brexiteerism and toxit nostalgia and towards a new kind of electoral compact with the millenials. To me reform is in reality a failure of the ukips to complete their Trojan horse attack on the conservatives. It is a retreat after trying to take over the party. I expect the jacobin bookers will scuttle over there to shake.thwir fists at the sky. But in 5 years' time old age will ensure there will be even fewer of those voters left to do anything. And in 10 years the notion of brexiteerism will be but a memory. It will take the tories at least two terms to come up with a winning strategy as they look for some new platform as their key demographic since the 80s finally exhales. 🤷

    There will always be a right wing party. Indeed the rest of the west is swinging right, Britain is the exception

    So the question is will the Torres survive and evolve, or will a new populist right party supplant them? Given the extreme volatility of the times I’d say the second is surprisingly plausible
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,926
    This is the sort of thing labour campaigners and MPs will be on the receiving end of more and more as the election campaign gets into full swing.

    Wonder how this will impact labour in its inner city seats. Not just it’s Muslim vote that is very much against the slaughter in Gaza, and labours stance which is to the right of the govt, but the young in general too.

    https://x.com/middleeasteye/status/1758996104610201972?s=61
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,455
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Phnom Penh is so extraordinarily cheap AND efficient

    Yesterday I asked a printing shop to print a 360 page document. Black and white. A4. One side per page. I emailed the document in word

    They have done this and today it has been delivered to my apartment block, across the city, with this visual proof pinging on to my iPad as I sip iced coffee across the road in a lovely leafy little cafe

    The total cost of all this has been $6.50 - that includes the printing. Not just the delivery




    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/printing-things-is-cheap-in-cambodia-will-this-do/
    Genuine chuckle
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,455
    $6.50 tho

    How does that even work??
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,054

    Gauke's scenario depends on Boris and Farage recommending the Pritster. I'm not sure either would be keen to recommend her until she has the nomination sewn up by which time it will be irrelevant. Boris in particular is more socially liberal and pro-immigration than Patel, and might also still harbour dreams of his own return.

    Knowing what we know now, wasn't Johnson's apparently pro-immigration stance just a cynical attempt to appeal to the London electorate when he was mayor?
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 194
    Leon said:

    What I'd the voting pattern leaves the parliamentary party total made up of centrists and the jacobins all ejected? Surely that will suggest to the tories that the future lay with reorienting conservativism away from the boomers, brexiteerism and toxit nostalgia and towards a new kind of electoral compact with the millenials. To me reform is in reality a failure of the ukips to complete their Trojan horse attack on the conservatives. It is a retreat after trying to take over the party. I expect the jacobin bookers will scuttle over there to shake.thwir fists at the sky. But in 5 years' time old age will ensure there will be even fewer of those voters left to do anything. And in 10 years the notion of brexiteerism will be but a memory. It will take the tories at least two terms to come up with a winning strategy as they look for some new platform as their key demographic since the 80s finally exhales. 🤷

    There will always be a right wing party. Indeed the rest of the west is swinging right, Britain is the exception

    So the question is will the Torres survive and evolve, or will a new populist right party supplant them? Given the extreme volatility of the times I’d say the second is surprisingly plausible
    The problem for the radical jacobin right in britain is that it is ovrrwhelmingly associated with an old demographic with extremely limited shelf life: boomers. I just don't see it having the numbers going forward. Anybody with even an ounce of strategic insight will be looking at the trends in the electoral make up in 2029 and 2034 and concluding that that future world belongs to the millenials. If you want a winning conservative formula you have to find a way to appeal to them and the kind of nostalgia and economic incentives they will buy into. The radicals might try to regoup for 2029, but it won't work.... you can't fight gravity. After that last gasp they will come round to millenial oriented conservativism anyway. Brexiteerism is doomed. P.s. nobody gives a rats ass about gen x as we are a tiny generation.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,388
    Leon said:

    $6.50 tho

    How does that even work??

    The cost of anything is the cost of the labour required to produce it.

    Things are cheap where the workers get paid bugger all.

  • Chris said:

    Gauke's scenario depends on Boris and Farage recommending the Pritster. I'm not sure either would be keen to recommend her until she has the nomination sewn up by which time it will be irrelevant. Boris in particular is more socially liberal and pro-immigration than Patel, and might also still harbour dreams of his own return.

    Knowing what we know now, wasn't Johnson's apparently pro-immigration stance just a cynical attempt to appeal to the London electorate when he was mayor?
    No, it continued into government. It is probably one reason we have record immigration since Brexit.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,388
    edited February 18

    Leon said:

    What I'd the voting pattern leaves the parliamentary party total made up of centrists and the jacobins all ejected? Surely that will suggest to the tories that the future lay with reorienting conservativism away from the boomers, brexiteerism and toxit nostalgia and towards a new kind of electoral compact with the millenials. To me reform is in reality a failure of the ukips to complete their Trojan horse attack on the conservatives. It is a retreat after trying to take over the party. I expect the jacobin bookers will scuttle over there to shake.thwir fists at the sky. But in 5 years' time old age will ensure there will be even fewer of those voters left to do anything. And in 10 years the notion of brexiteerism will be but a memory. It will take the tories at least two terms to come up with a winning strategy as they look for some new platform as their key demographic since the 80s finally exhales. 🤷

    There will always be a right wing party. Indeed the rest of the west is swinging right, Britain is the exception

    So the question is will the Torres survive and evolve, or will a new populist right party supplant them? Given the extreme volatility of the times I’d say the second is surprisingly plausible
    The problem for the radical jacobin right in britain is that it is ovrrwhelmingly associated with an old demographic with extremely limited shelf life: boomers. I just don't see it having the numbers going forward. Anybody with even an ounce of strategic insight will be looking at the trends in the electoral make up in 2029 and 2034 and concluding that that future world belongs to the millenials. If you want a winning conservative formula you have to find a way to appeal to them and the kind of nostalgia and economic incentives they will buy into. The radicals might try to regoup for 2029, but it won't work.... you can't fight gravity. After that last gasp they will come round to millenial oriented conservativism anyway. Brexiteerism is doomed. P.s. nobody gives a rats ass about gen x as we are a tiny generation.
    I think there is a possibility of winning over Millenials to Conservatism. They are a consumerist and socially liberal generation, and marketisation of the economy is fine by them. Netflix vs the BBC as a symbolic beginning.

    Very hard to ride 2 horses though and keep reactionary featherbedded pensioners on board.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,455
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    $6.50 tho

    How does that even work??

    The cost of anything is the cost of the labour required to produce it.

    Things are cheap where the workers get paid bugger all.

    Is it tho? Printing is just a machine

    You feed the paper, press a button, it prints. Very little labour involved

    Surely much of the cost is the paper, “ink”, electricity, machine usage

    Getting 360 pages printed in London would cost me £20-30 at its cheapest?

    So it’s ten times cheaper here to use a printer, paper, etc. I’m sure a clever economist can explain it - I am somewhat surprised
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,388
    Taz said:

    This is the sort of thing labour campaigners and MPs will be on the receiving end of more and more as the election campaign gets into full swing.

    Wonder how this will impact labour in its inner city seats. Not just it’s Muslim vote that is very much against the slaughter in Gaza, and labours stance which is to the right of the govt, but the young in general too.

    https://x.com/middleeasteye/status/1758996104610201972?s=61

    Fox jr2 says he won't vote Labour because of its stance on the Gaza conflict. He might vote Green.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,164
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    $6.50 tho

    How does that even work??

    The cost of anything is the cost of the labour required to produce it.

    Things are cheap where the workers get paid bugger all.

    Is it tho? Printing is just a machine

    You feed the paper, press a button, it prints. Very little labour involved

    Surely much of the cost is the paper, “ink”, electricity, machine usage

    Getting 360 pages printed in London would cost me £20-30 at its cheapest?

    So it’s ten times cheaper here to use a printer, paper, etc. I’m sure a clever economist can explain it - I am somewhat surprised
    Most of what you pay in London is for the premises.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,455

    Leon said:

    What I'd the voting pattern leaves the parliamentary party total made up of centrists and the jacobins all ejected? Surely that will suggest to the tories that the future lay with reorienting conservativism away from the boomers, brexiteerism and toxit nostalgia and towards a new kind of electoral compact with the millenials. To me reform is in reality a failure of the ukips to complete their Trojan horse attack on the conservatives. It is a retreat after trying to take over the party. I expect the jacobin bookers will scuttle over there to shake.thwir fists at the sky. But in 5 years' time old age will ensure there will be even fewer of those voters left to do anything. And in 10 years the notion of brexiteerism will be but a memory. It will take the tories at least two terms to come up with a winning strategy as they look for some new platform as their key demographic since the 80s finally exhales. 🤷

    There will always be a right wing party. Indeed the rest of the west is swinging right, Britain is the exception

    So the question is will the Torres survive and evolve, or will a new populist right party supplant them? Given the extreme volatility of the times I’d say the second is surprisingly plausible
    The problem for the radical jacobin right in britain is that it is ovrrwhelmingly associated with an old demographic with extremely limited shelf life: boomers. I just don't see it having the numbers going forward. Anybody with even an ounce of strategic insight will be looking at the trends in the electoral make up in 2029 and 2034 and concluding that that future world belongs to the millenials. If you want a winning conservative formula you have to find a way to appeal to them and the kind of nostalgia and economic incentives they will buy into. The radicals might try to regoup for 2029, but it won't work.... you can't fight gravity. After that last gasp they will come round to millenial oriented conservativism anyway. Brexiteerism is doomed. P.s. nobody gives a rats ass about gen x as we are a tiny generation.
    Then you need to explain the rise of the populist right in Western Europe. Much of it is among the young - Le Pen, for instance, has remarkable support in ages 18-35

    https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2017/4/20/why-does-le-pen-get-so-much-support-from-young-voters
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,388
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    $6.50 tho

    How does that even work??

    The cost of anything is the cost of the labour required to produce it.

    Things are cheap where the workers get paid bugger all.

    Is it tho? Printing is just a machine

    You feed the paper, press a button, it prints. Very little labour involved

    Surely much of the cost is the paper, “ink”, electricity, machine usage

    Getting 360 pages printed in London would cost me £20-30 at its cheapest?

    So it’s ten times cheaper here to use a printer, paper, etc. I’m sure a clever economist can explain it - I am somewhat surprised
    You forget the office cost of rent, Council Tax, VAT etc that apply in London.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,388
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    What I'd the voting pattern leaves the parliamentary party total made up of centrists and the jacobins all ejected? Surely that will suggest to the tories that the future lay with reorienting conservativism away from the boomers, brexiteerism and toxit nostalgia and towards a new kind of electoral compact with the millenials. To me reform is in reality a failure of the ukips to complete their Trojan horse attack on the conservatives. It is a retreat after trying to take over the party. I expect the jacobin bookers will scuttle over there to shake.thwir fists at the sky. But in 5 years' time old age will ensure there will be even fewer of those voters left to do anything. And in 10 years the notion of brexiteerism will be but a memory. It will take the tories at least two terms to come up with a winning strategy as they look for some new platform as their key demographic since the 80s finally exhales. 🤷

    There will always be a right wing party. Indeed the rest of the west is swinging right, Britain is the exception

    So the question is will the Torres survive and evolve, or will a new populist right party supplant them? Given the extreme volatility of the times I’d say the second is surprisingly plausible
    The problem for the radical jacobin right in britain is that it is ovrrwhelmingly associated with an old demographic with extremely limited shelf life: boomers. I just don't see it having the numbers going forward. Anybody with even an ounce of strategic insight will be looking at the trends in the electoral make up in 2029 and 2034 and concluding that that future world belongs to the millenials. If you want a winning conservative formula you have to find a way to appeal to them and the kind of nostalgia and economic incentives they will buy into. The radicals might try to regoup for 2029, but it won't work.... you can't fight gravity. After that last gasp they will come round to millenial oriented conservativism anyway. Brexiteerism is doomed. P.s. nobody gives a rats ass about gen x as we are a tiny generation.
    Then you need to explain the rise of the populist right in Western Europe. Much of it is among the young - Le Pen, for instance, has remarkable support in ages 18-35

    https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2017/4/20/why-does-le-pen-get-so-much-support-from-young-voters
    Yes, but that isn't Britain.

    The Tories have declared war on the young in a way that Le Pen hasn't.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,926
    edited February 18
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    $6.50 tho

    How does that even work??

    The cost of anything is the cost of the labour required to produce it.

    Things are cheap where the workers get paid bugger all.

    It is not just the labour.

    Other costs too are involved. Electricity, equipment, consumables etc etc.

    But where labour is a large element of the price exactly this.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,455
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    $6.50 tho

    How does that even work??

    The cost of anything is the cost of the labour required to produce it.

    Things are cheap where the workers get paid bugger all.

    Is it tho? Printing is just a machine

    You feed the paper, press a button, it prints. Very little labour involved

    Surely much of the cost is the paper, “ink”, electricity, machine usage

    Getting 360 pages printed in London would cost me £20-30 at its cheapest?

    So it’s ten times cheaper here to use a printer, paper, etc. I’m sure a clever economist can explain it - I am somewhat surprised
    You forget the office cost of rent, Council Tax, VAT etc that apply in London.
    True

    Except the cheaper printers are outside london and then they deliver. But I see your point

    It’s so cheap here if you had a massive printing job it might actually make sense to fly to Phnom Penh and get it done while having a holiday
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tory chicken run: more than 100 MPs could resign before election
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-party-100-mps-resign-uk-general-election-tbhv9w603 (£££)

    Didn’t the same happen in 2010 and 1997?

    It looks like a change election is coming, there’s new boundaries, and it’s better to plan ahead for a new life after politics, than be left in the same position as dozens of others the day after the election.
    Indeed, and with the Conservatives heading for defeat, there is no prospect of government roles for those left behind.
    Yes, there’s only one ‘ministerial’ salary available to those in opposition, so for many it’ll be quite the comedown even if they’re re-elected.

    I know it’s fun to take the piss out of politicians, and we all had a good laugh at the remarkably honest George Freeman, but they’re still humans, and still have to make a living and pay their mortgages. For many, an MP job will have been a pay cut, and the salary affords a comfortable rather than a lavish lifestyle. The retirees will have mostly been elected in 2005 or 2010, and will be looking for a change of scenery having served in office for more than a decade.
    Disillusionment too. Telegraph (iirc) correspondents recently reported that Conservative MPs are looking back at 14 years of government since 2010 and wondering what it had all been for.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,926
    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    This is the sort of thing labour campaigners and MPs will be on the receiving end of more and more as the election campaign gets into full swing.

    Wonder how this will impact labour in its inner city seats. Not just it’s Muslim vote that is very much against the slaughter in Gaza, and labours stance which is to the right of the govt, but the young in general too.

    https://x.com/middleeasteye/status/1758996104610201972?s=61

    Fox jr2 says he won't vote Labour because of its stance on the Gaza conflict. He might vote Green.
    How old is he ?

    This is why I don’t think the Green vote share is overstated.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,763
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    $6.50 tho

    How does that even work??

    The cost of anything is the cost of the labour required to produce it.

    Things are cheap where the workers get paid bugger all.

    Is it tho? Printing is just a machine

    You feed the paper, press a button, it prints. Very little labour involved

    Surely much of the cost is the paper, “ink”, electricity, machine usage

    Getting 360 pages printed in London would cost me £20-30 at its cheapest?

    So it’s ten times cheaper here to use a printer, paper, etc. I’m sure a clever economist can explain it - I am somewhat surprised
    It’ll be a cheap Chinese printer, and everything else is produced locally and costs very little because the cost of labour is so low. Ask your driver how much he gets paid per hour? It’ll be cents not dollars.
  • Carriage design for the Suffy G line


  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,455
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    What I'd the voting pattern leaves the parliamentary party total made up of centrists and the jacobins all ejected? Surely that will suggest to the tories that the future lay with reorienting conservativism away from the boomers, brexiteerism and toxit nostalgia and towards a new kind of electoral compact with the millenials. To me reform is in reality a failure of the ukips to complete their Trojan horse attack on the conservatives. It is a retreat after trying to take over the party. I expect the jacobin bookers will scuttle over there to shake.thwir fists at the sky. But in 5 years' time old age will ensure there will be even fewer of those voters left to do anything. And in 10 years the notion of brexiteerism will be but a memory. It will take the tories at least two terms to come up with a winning strategy as they look for some new platform as their key demographic since the 80s finally exhales. 🤷

    There will always be a right wing party. Indeed the rest of the west is swinging right, Britain is the exception

    So the question is will the Torres survive and evolve, or will a new populist right party supplant them? Given the extreme volatility of the times I’d say the second is surprisingly plausible
    The problem for the radical jacobin right in britain is that it is ovrrwhelmingly associated with an old demographic with extremely limited shelf life: boomers. I just don't see it having the numbers going forward. Anybody with even an ounce of strategic insight will be looking at the trends in the electoral make up in 2029 and 2034 and concluding that that future world belongs to the millenials. If you want a winning conservative formula you have to find a way to appeal to them and the kind of nostalgia and economic incentives they will buy into. The radicals might try to regoup for 2029, but it won't work.... you can't fight gravity. After that last gasp they will come round to millenial oriented conservativism anyway. Brexiteerism is doomed. P.s. nobody gives a rats ass about gen x as we are a tiny generation.
    Then you need to explain the rise of the populist right in Western Europe. Much of it is among the young - Le Pen, for instance, has remarkable support in ages 18-35

    https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2017/4/20/why-does-le-pen-get-so-much-support-from-young-voters
    Yes, but that isn't Britain.

    The Tories have declared war on the young in a way that Le Pen hasn't.
    That’s why I’m saying the Tories could easily be replaced. That’s my original point

    A populist right wing party targeting the concerns of younger voters could do really well

    I agree that the Tories are totally doomed if they remain the pensioner party. Indeed it’s a truism
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,388
    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    This is the sort of thing labour campaigners and MPs will be on the receiving end of more and more as the election campaign gets into full swing.

    Wonder how this will impact labour in its inner city seats. Not just it’s Muslim vote that is very much against the slaughter in Gaza, and labours stance which is to the right of the govt, but the young in general too.

    https://x.com/middleeasteye/status/1758996104610201972?s=61

    Fox jr2 says he won't vote Labour because of its stance on the Gaza conflict. He might vote Green.
    How old is he ?

    This is why I don’t think the Green vote share is overstated.
    Early Twenties.

    He is in a safe Labour seat in East London so I don't think it makes a difference.

    I don't think he has a particularly deep understanding of the conflict, but is appalled by Israeli actions.

    I don't think that either Netanyahu or Hamas give a toss about what foreign politicians think, except the USA for Israelis.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,455
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    $6.50 tho

    How does that even work??

    The cost of anything is the cost of the labour required to produce it.

    Things are cheap where the workers get paid bugger all.

    Is it tho? Printing is just a machine

    You feed the paper, press a button, it prints. Very little labour involved

    Surely much of the cost is the paper, “ink”, electricity, machine usage

    Getting 360 pages printed in London would cost me £20-30 at its cheapest?

    So it’s ten times cheaper here to use a printer, paper, etc. I’m sure a clever economist can explain it - I am somewhat surprised
    It’ll be a cheap Chinese printer, and everything else is produced locally and costs very little because the cost of labour is so low. Ask your driver how much he gets paid per hour? It’ll be cents not dollars.
    I made sure he got a healthy tip
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,763

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Tory chicken run: more than 100 MPs could resign before election
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-party-100-mps-resign-uk-general-election-tbhv9w603 (£££)

    Didn’t the same happen in 2010 and 1997?

    It looks like a change election is coming, there’s new boundaries, and it’s better to plan ahead for a new life after politics, than be left in the same position as dozens of others the day after the election.
    Indeed, and with the Conservatives heading for defeat, there is no prospect of government roles for those left behind.
    Yes, there’s only one ‘ministerial’ salary available to those in opposition, so for many it’ll be quite the comedown even if they’re re-elected.

    I know it’s fun to take the piss out of politicians, and we all had a good laugh at the remarkably honest George Freeman, but they’re still humans, and still have to make a living and pay their mortgages. For many, an MP job will have been a pay cut, and the salary affords a comfortable rather than a lavish lifestyle. The retirees will have mostly been elected in 2005 or 2010, and will be looking for a change of scenery having served in office for more than a decade.
    Disillusionment too. Telegraph (iirc) correspondents recently reported that Conservative MPs are looking back at 14 years of government since 2010 and wondering what it had all been for.
    Certainly the last couple of years have been terribly disappointing. Sunak appears to be using a large majority to do absolutely nothing.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,926
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    What I'd the voting pattern leaves the parliamentary party total made up of centrists and the jacobins all ejected? Surely that will suggest to the tories that the future lay with reorienting conservativism away from the boomers, brexiteerism and toxit nostalgia and towards a new kind of electoral compact with the millenials. To me reform is in reality a failure of the ukips to complete their Trojan horse attack on the conservatives. It is a retreat after trying to take over the party. I expect the jacobin bookers will scuttle over there to shake.thwir fists at the sky. But in 5 years' time old age will ensure there will be even fewer of those voters left to do anything. And in 10 years the notion of brexiteerism will be but a memory. It will take the tories at least two terms to come up with a winning strategy as they look for some new platform as their key demographic since the 80s finally exhales. 🤷

    There will always be a right wing party. Indeed the rest of the west is swinging right, Britain is the exception

    So the question is will the Torres survive and evolve, or will a new populist right party supplant them? Given the extreme volatility of the times I’d say the second is surprisingly plausible
    The problem for the radical jacobin right in britain is that it is ovrrwhelmingly associated with an old demographic with extremely limited shelf life: boomers. I just don't see it having the numbers going forward. Anybody with even an ounce of strategic insight will be looking at the trends in the electoral make up in 2029 and 2034 and concluding that that future world belongs to the millenials. If you want a winning conservative formula you have to find a way to appeal to them and the kind of nostalgia and economic incentives they will buy into. The radicals might try to regoup for 2029, but it won't work.... you can't fight gravity. After that last gasp they will come round to millenial oriented conservativism anyway. Brexiteerism is doomed. P.s. nobody gives a rats ass about gen x as we are a tiny generation.
    Then you need to explain the rise of the populist right in Western Europe. Much of it is among the young - Le Pen, for instance, has remarkable support in ages 18-35

    https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2017/4/20/why-does-le-pen-get-so-much-support-from-young-voters
    Yes, but that isn't Britain.

    The Tories have declared war on the young in a way that Le Pen hasn't.
    That’s why I’m saying the Tories could easily be replaced. That’s my original point

    A populist right wing party targeting the concerns of younger voters could do really well

    I agree that the Tories are totally doomed if they remain the pensioner party. Indeed it’s a truism
    Build more homes where they are needed, that would be a good start. Give younger people a route to the property market.
  • Sunak is warned spending squeeze could lead to Conservative party wipeout at election
    As fresh party infighting erupts after two byelection losses, the right are targeting public service funding to pay for tax cuts while others urge restraint

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/18/sunak-is-warned-spending-squeeze-could-lead-to-conservative-party-wipeout-at-election

    What is interesting about this Tory debate is it is almost principle-free. It is not that the government should do X or Y to follow Conservative principles and thereby benefit the country, but rather on the cold electoral calculus of whether X or Y will deliver more votes.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,944
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    $6.50 tho

    How does that even work??

    The cost of anything is the cost of the labour required to produce it.

    Things are cheap where the workers get paid bugger all.

    Is it tho? Printing is just a machine

    You feed the paper, press a button, it prints. Very little labour involved

    Surely much of the cost is the paper, “ink”, electricity, machine usage

    Getting 360 pages printed in London would cost me £20-30 at its cheapest?

    So it’s ten times cheaper here to use a printer, paper, etc. I’m sure a clever economist can explain it - I am somewhat surprised
    It’ll be a cheap Chinese printer, and everything else is produced locally and costs very little because the cost of labour is so low. Ask your driver how much he gets paid per hour? It’ll be cents not dollars.
    I made sure he got a healthy tip
    Glad the antibiotics are finally working.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,455
    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    This is the sort of thing labour campaigners and MPs will be on the receiving end of more and more as the election campaign gets into full swing.

    Wonder how this will impact labour in its inner city seats. Not just it’s Muslim vote that is very much against the slaughter in Gaza, and labours stance which is to the right of the govt, but the young in general too.

    https://x.com/middleeasteye/status/1758996104610201972?s=61

    Fox jr2 says he won't vote Labour because of its stance on the Gaza conflict. He might vote Green.
    How old is he ?

    This is why I don’t think the Green vote share is overstated.
    Early Twenties.

    He is in a safe Labour seat in East London so I don't think it makes a difference.

    I don't think he has a particularly deep understanding of the conflict, but is appalled by Israeli actions.

    I don't think that either Netanyahu or Hamas give a toss about what foreign politicians think, except the USA for Israelis.
    I’m not sure Bibi is particularly fussed about the Americans, at this extreme point. For Israel this is existential and they no longer care. Everyone hates them anyway

    We can now get a sense of their ultimate plan. Egypt is clearing a space in northern Sinai abutting Gaza

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/16/egypt-building-walled-enclosure-in-sinai-for-rafah-refugees-videos-suggest

    Israel is - perhaps - going to drive all the Gazans into Sinai. As we speculated on here after October 7
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 194
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    What I'd the voting pattern leaves the parliamentary party total made up of centrists and the jacobins all ejected? Surely that will suggest to the tories that the future lay with reorienting conservativism away from the boomers, brexiteerism and toxit nostalgia and towards a new kind of electoral compact with the millenials. To me reform is in reality a failure of the ukips to complete their Trojan horse attack on the conservatives. It is a retreat after trying to take over the party. I expect the jacobin bookers will scuttle over there to shake.thwir fists at the sky. But in 5 years' time old age will ensure there will be even fewer of those voters left to do anything. And in 10 years the notion of brexiteerism will be but a memory. It will take the tories at least two terms to come up with a winning strategy as they look for some new platform as their key demographic since the 80s finally exhales. 🤷

    There will always be a right wing party. Indeed the rest of the west is swinging right, Britain is the exception

    So the question is will the Torres survive and evolve, or will a new populist right party supplant them? Given the extreme volatility of the times I’d say the second is surprisingly plausible
    The problem for the radical jacobin right in britain is that it is ovrrwhelmingly associated with an old demographic with extremely limited shelf life: boomers. I just don't see it having the numbers going forward. Anybody with even an ounce of strategic insight will be looking at the trends in the electoral make up in 2029 and 2034 and concluding that that future world belongs to the millenials. If you want a winning conservative formula you have to find a way to appeal to them and the kind of nostalgia and economic incentives they will buy into. The radicals might try to regoup for 2029, but it won't work.... you can't fight gravity. After that last gasp they will come round to millenial oriented conservativism anyway. Brexiteerism is doomed. P.s. nobody gives a rats ass about gen x as we are a tiny generation.
    Then you need to explain the rise of the populist right in Western Europe. Much of it is among the young - Le Pen, for instance, has remarkable support in ages 18-35

    https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2017/4/20/why-does-le-pen-get-so-much-support-from-young-voters
    18-35s won't have the numbers to take on the millenials.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,198
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    What I'd the voting pattern leaves the parliamentary party total made up of centrists and the jacobins all ejected? Surely that will suggest to the tories that the future lay with reorienting conservativism away from the boomers, brexiteerism and toxit nostalgia and towards a new kind of electoral compact with the millenials. To me reform is in reality a failure of the ukips to complete their Trojan horse attack on the conservatives. It is a retreat after trying to take over the party. I expect the jacobin bookers will scuttle over there to shake.thwir fists at the sky. But in 5 years' time old age will ensure there will be even fewer of those voters left to do anything. And in 10 years the notion of brexiteerism will be but a memory. It will take the tories at least two terms to come up with a winning strategy as they look for some new platform as their key demographic since the 80s finally exhales. 🤷

    There will always be a right wing party. Indeed the rest of the west is swinging right, Britain is the exception

    So the question is will the Torres survive and evolve, or will a new populist right party supplant them? Given the extreme volatility of the times I’d say the second is surprisingly plausible
    The problem for the radical jacobin right in britain is that it is ovrrwhelmingly associated with an old demographic with extremely limited shelf life: boomers. I just don't see it having the numbers going forward. Anybody with even an ounce of strategic insight will be looking at the trends in the electoral make up in 2029 and 2034 and concluding that that future world belongs to the millenials. If you want a winning conservative formula you have to find a way to appeal to them and the kind of nostalgia and economic incentives they will buy into. The radicals might try to regoup for 2029, but it won't work.... you can't fight gravity. After that last gasp they will come round to millenial oriented conservativism anyway. Brexiteerism is doomed. P.s. nobody gives a rats ass about gen x as we are a tiny generation.
    I think there is a possibility of winning over Millenials to Conservatism. They are a consumerist and socially liberal generation, and marketisation of the economy is fine by them. Netflix vs the BBC as a symbolic beginning.

    Very hard to ride 2 horses though and keep reactionary featherbedded pensioners on board.
    However their consumerism is at odds with their need to assemble of capital to invest in property. The longer they can’t buy a house, the more they will look for who to blame.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,793
    ...
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,198
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    $6.50 tho

    How does that even work??

    The cost of anything is the cost of the labour required to produce it.

    Things are cheap where the workers get paid bugger all.

    Is it tho? Printing is just a machine

    You feed the paper, press a button, it prints. Very little labour involved

    Surely much of the cost is the paper, “ink”, electricity, machine usage

    Getting 360 pages printed in London would cost me £20-30 at its cheapest?

    So it’s ten times cheaper here to use a printer, paper, etc. I’m sure a clever economist can explain it - I am somewhat surprised
    Most of what you pay in London is for the premises.
    I bought two ink canisters for my hp printer in Ryman this week. £99. You cannot tell me that ink costs that much to make. The model is to sell you a cheap printer and milk you on the consumables.

    See also razor blades.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited February 18
    The right are no longer conservative. If you like pragmatic, “what matters is what works” policies you head to the left. If you want to take the world forward you also vote for the left or centre.

    If you want the world to burn or more radical change you head to the neo right (or far lef)t, who want to turn the clock back to an illusion of childhood before the modern world took hold.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,803
    I see SKS ordered Sue Grey to seize the personal phones of his staffers to find out who leaked the Green New Deal.

    It turns out #TelAvivKeith was the nickname being used in e mails between said staffers.

    Lol. SKS fans or should that be #TAK fans please explain
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,455

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    $6.50 tho

    How does that even work??

    The cost of anything is the cost of the labour required to produce it.

    Things are cheap where the workers get paid bugger all.

    Is it tho? Printing is just a machine

    You feed the paper, press a button, it prints. Very little labour involved

    Surely much of the cost is the paper, “ink”, electricity, machine usage

    Getting 360 pages printed in London would cost me £20-30 at its cheapest?

    So it’s ten times cheaper here to use a printer, paper, etc. I’m sure a clever economist can explain it - I am somewhat surprised
    Most of what you pay in London is for the premises.
    I bought two ink canisters for my hp printer in Ryman this week. £99. You cannot tell me that ink costs that much to make. The model is to sell you a cheap printer and milk you on the consumables.

    See also razor blades.
    Yes. Its a hideous business model but it clearly works - for them - as if hasn’t changed for many years

    I did a deep dive on it about a year ago when we
    were discussing the vileness of printers on pb. Apparently they make the machines deliberately crap and flimsy so you keep having to replace them

    Even the cheapness of the machines is an illusion
  • CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 194

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    What I'd the voting pattern leaves the parliamentary party total made up of centrists and the jacobins all ejected? Surely that will suggest to the tories that the future lay with reorienting conservativism away from the boomers, brexiteerism and toxit nostalgia and towards a new kind of electoral compact with the millenials. To me reform is in reality a failure of the ukips to complete their Trojan horse attack on the conservatives. It is a retreat after trying to take over the party. I expect the jacobin bookers will scuttle over there to shake.thwir fists at the sky. But in 5 years' time old age will ensure there will be even fewer of those voters left to do anything. And in 10 years the notion of brexiteerism will be but a memory. It will take the tories at least two terms to come up with a winning strategy as they look for some new platform as their key demographic since the 80s finally exhales. 🤷

    There will always be a right wing party. Indeed the rest of the west is swinging right, Britain is the exception

    So the question is will the Torres survive and evolve, or will a new populist right party supplant them? Given the extreme volatility of the times I’d say the second is surprisingly plausible
    The problem for the radical jacobin right in britain is that it is ovrrwhelmingly associated with an old demographic with extremely limited shelf life: boomers. I just don't see it having the numbers going forward. Anybody with even an ounce of strategic insight will be looking at the trends in the electoral make up in 2029 and 2034 and concluding that that future world belongs to the millenials. If you want a winning conservative formula you have to find a way to appeal to them and the kind of nostalgia and economic incentives they will buy into. The radicals might try to regoup for 2029, but it won't work.... you can't fight gravity. After that last gasp they will come round to millenial oriented conservativism anyway. Brexiteerism is doomed. P.s. nobody gives a rats ass about gen x as we are a tiny generation.
    Then you need to explain the rise of the populist right in Western Europe. Much of it is among the young - Le Pen, for instance, has remarkable support in ages 18-35

    https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2017/4/20/why-does-le-pen-get-so-much-support-from-young-voters
    18-35s won't have the numbers to take on the millenials.

    For the strategic situation going forward in terms of generational power, I don't see zoomers coming into their own for a good long time yet. Together gen x and the millenials will hold sway for the next 15-20 years.


    https://www.statista.com/statistics/528577/uk-population-by-generation/#:~:text=In 2021, there were approximately,generational cohort at that time.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,388
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    What I'd the voting pattern leaves the parliamentary party total made up of centrists and the jacobins all ejected? Surely that will suggest to the tories that the future lay with reorienting conservativism away from the boomers, brexiteerism and toxit nostalgia and towards a new kind of electoral compact with the millenials. To me reform is in reality a failure of the ukips to complete their Trojan horse attack on the conservatives. It is a retreat after trying to take over the party. I expect the jacobin bookers will scuttle over there to shake.thwir fists at the sky. But in 5 years' time old age will ensure there will be even fewer of those voters left to do anything. And in 10 years the notion of brexiteerism will be but a memory. It will take the tories at least two terms to come up with a winning strategy as they look for some new platform as their key demographic since the 80s finally exhales. 🤷

    There will always be a right wing party. Indeed the rest of the west is swinging right, Britain is the exception

    So the question is will the Torres survive and evolve, or will a new populist right party supplant them? Given the extreme volatility of the times I’d say the second is surprisingly plausible
    The problem for the radical jacobin right in britain is that it is ovrrwhelmingly associated with an old demographic with extremely limited shelf life: boomers. I just don't see it having the numbers going forward. Anybody with even an ounce of strategic insight will be looking at the trends in the electoral make up in 2029 and 2034 and concluding that that future world belongs to the millenials. If you want a winning conservative formula you have to find a way to appeal to them and the kind of nostalgia and economic incentives they will buy into. The radicals might try to regoup for 2029, but it won't work.... you can't fight gravity. After that last gasp they will come round to millenial oriented conservativism anyway. Brexiteerism is doomed. P.s. nobody gives a rats ass about gen x as we are a tiny generation.
    Then you need to explain the rise of the populist right in Western Europe. Much of it is among the young - Le Pen, for instance, has remarkable support in ages 18-35

    https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2017/4/20/why-does-le-pen-get-so-much-support-from-young-voters
    Yes, but that isn't Britain.

    The Tories have declared war on the young in a way that Le Pen hasn't.
    That’s why I’m saying the Tories could easily be replaced. That’s my original point

    A populist right wing party targeting the concerns of younger voters could do really well

    I agree that the Tories are totally doomed if they remain the pensioner party. Indeed it’s a truism
    That Populist Right Wing party doesn't exist here. None of the Tories, REFUK or any of the post-UKIP splitters have any significant support from the young.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,455
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    What I'd the voting pattern leaves the parliamentary party total made up of centrists and the jacobins all ejected? Surely that will suggest to the tories that the future lay with reorienting conservativism away from the boomers, brexiteerism and toxit nostalgia and towards a new kind of electoral compact with the millenials. To me reform is in reality a failure of the ukips to complete their Trojan horse attack on the conservatives. It is a retreat after trying to take over the party. I expect the jacobin bookers will scuttle over there to shake.thwir fists at the sky. But in 5 years' time old age will ensure there will be even fewer of those voters left to do anything. And in 10 years the notion of brexiteerism will be but a memory. It will take the tories at least two terms to come up with a winning strategy as they look for some new platform as their key demographic since the 80s finally exhales. 🤷

    There will always be a right wing party. Indeed the rest of the west is swinging right, Britain is the exception

    So the question is will the Torres survive and evolve, or will a new populist right party supplant them? Given the extreme volatility of the times I’d say the second is surprisingly plausible
    The problem for the radical jacobin right in britain is that it is ovrrwhelmingly associated with an old demographic with extremely limited shelf life: boomers. I just don't see it having the numbers going forward. Anybody with even an ounce of strategic insight will be looking at the trends in the electoral make up in 2029 and 2034 and concluding that that future world belongs to the millenials. If you want a winning conservative formula you have to find a way to appeal to them and the kind of nostalgia and economic incentives they will buy into. The radicals might try to regoup for 2029, but it won't work.... you can't fight gravity. After that last gasp they will come round to millenial oriented conservativism anyway. Brexiteerism is doomed. P.s. nobody gives a rats ass about gen x as we are a tiny generation.
    Then you need to explain the rise of the populist right in Western Europe. Much of it is among the young - Le Pen, for instance, has remarkable support in ages 18-35

    https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2017/4/20/why-does-le-pen-get-so-much-support-from-young-voters
    Yes, but that isn't Britain.

    The Tories have declared war on the young in a way that Le Pen hasn't.
    That’s why I’m saying the Tories could easily be replaced. That’s my original point

    A populist right wing party targeting the concerns of younger voters could do really well

    I agree that the Tories are totally doomed if they remain the pensioner party. Indeed it’s a truism
    That Populist Right Wing party doesn't exist here. None of the Tories, REFUK or any of the post-UKIP splitters have any significant support from the young.
    Because they’re crap. Not because it is impossible - we are not that different to France, Holland, America, etc

    Eventually someone will fill the void. Its a natural law
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,803

    Clips of yesterday's Palestine rally again included the chant "no ceasefire, no vote" which might be electorally important, especially if it spreads from London to Rochdale whose by-election is on the 29th.

    The former Lab Candidate and Galloway are the only ones with a realistic prospect of winning Rochdale. Both appear to be pro ceasefire although the former is paradoxically pro #TAK too.

    My MP is a member of LFI and LFP talk about riding both horses
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,455
    edited February 18
    Jonathan said:

    The right are no longer conservative. If you like pragmatic, “what matters is what works” policies you head to the left. If you want to take the world forward you also vote for the left or centre.

    If you want the world to burn or more radical change you head to the neo right (or far lef)t, who want to turn the clock back to an illusion of childhood before the modern world took hold.

    What utter shite. If you want pragmatic “what matters is what works” policies for an advanced economy, then you copy the Singaporean government

    If you’re a poor country, you copy China. If you’re a poor country with terrible crime, you cope El Salvador
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    The right are no longer conservative. If you like pragmatic, “what matters is what works” policies you head to the left. If you want to take the world forward you also vote for the left or centre.

    If you want the world to burn or more radical change you head to the neo right (or far lef)t, who want to turn the clock back to an illusion of childhood before the modern world took hold.

    What utter shite. If you want pragmatic “what matters is what works” policies for an advanced economy, then you copy the Singaporean government

    If you’re a poor country, you copy China. If you’re a poor country with terrible crime, you cope El Salvador
    Farage and the U.K. right backward looking. All airfix kits of spitfires. Moribund.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,948

    Clips of yesterday's Palestine rally again included the chant "no ceasefire, no vote" which might be electorally important, especially if it spreads from London to Rochdale whose by-election is on the 29th.

    The former Lab Candidate and Galloway are the only ones with a realistic prospect of winning Rochdale. Both appear to be pro ceasefire although the former is paradoxically pro #TAK too.

    My MP is a member of LFI and LFP talk about riding both horses
    Perhaps s/he favours a two state solution, as all sane people do.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,213
    Leon said:

    Mind you I slightly fancy Kemi as well. And yet not Suella

    So this all has to be priced in, surely

    Priti Patel is, um, prettier than Suella Braverman, and also more 'put together' . Less fortunately, she doesn't speak as well - it's not the accent, it's the cadence/meter, it blunts the impact that she wants her sentences to have. If Priti can sort this out (or I suppose if Braverman can have a glamorous makeover) it will improve her (their) chances.

    I wouldn't say it's unlikely that Sunak goes before he can call the election, which will harm Patel's chances as her profile is very low at the moment.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,455
    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    The right are no longer conservative. If you like pragmatic, “what matters is what works” policies you head to the left. If you want to take the world forward you also vote for the left or centre.

    If you want the world to burn or more radical change you head to the neo right (or far lef)t, who want to turn the clock back to an illusion of childhood before the modern world took hold.

    What utter shite. If you want pragmatic “what matters is what works” policies for an advanced economy, then you copy the Singaporean government

    If you’re a poor country, you copy China. If you’re a poor country with terrible crime, you cope El Salvador
    Farage and the U.K. right backward looking. All airfix kits of spitfires. Moribund.
    Straw man. That wasn’t the argument

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,763

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    $6.50 tho

    How does that even work??

    The cost of anything is the cost of the labour required to produce it.

    Things are cheap where the workers get paid bugger all.

    Is it tho? Printing is just a machine

    You feed the paper, press a button, it prints. Very little labour involved

    Surely much of the cost is the paper, “ink”, electricity, machine usage

    Getting 360 pages printed in London would cost me £20-30 at its cheapest?

    So it’s ten times cheaper here to use a printer, paper, etc. I’m sure a clever economist can explain it - I am somewhat surprised
    Most of what you pay in London is for the premises.
    I bought two ink canisters for my hp printer in Ryman this week. £99. You cannot tell me that ink costs that much to make. The model is to sell you a cheap printer and milk you on the consumables.

    See also razor blades.
    Yes, consumer inkjet printers are following the razor blades business model.

    If you print more than about three pages a week, it’s cheaper in the long run to get a decent Laserjet aimed at small businesses.
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Color-LaserJet-M283fdw-Laser-Wi-Fi/dp/B085LR5M1H/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,455

    Leon said:

    Mind you I slightly fancy Kemi as well. And yet not Suella

    So this all has to be priced in, surely

    Priti Patel is, um, prettier than Suella Braverman, and also more 'put together' . Less fortunately, she doesn't speak as well - it's not the accent, it's the cadence/meter, it blunts the impact that she wants her sentences to have. If Priti can sort this out (or I suppose if Braverman can have a glamorous makeover) it will improve her (their) chances.

    I wouldn't say it's unlikely that Sunak goes before he can call the election, which will harm Patel's chances as her profile is very low at the moment.
    I don’t mind Patel’s voice particularly. I don’t know why people go on about it

    However, I should add that I have literally never heard Priti Patel speak, which may or may not be relevant

    But anyway that is my opinion (within that context). Her voice is fine - indeed likeable and quirky - and people should quit bitching about it
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    The right are no longer conservative. If you like pragmatic, “what matters is what works” policies you head to the left. If you want to take the world forward you also vote for the left or centre.

    If you want the world to burn or more radical change you head to the neo right (or far lef)t, who want to turn the clock back to an illusion of childhood before the modern world took hold.

    What utter shite. If you want pragmatic “what matters is what works” policies for an advanced economy, then you copy the Singaporean government

    If you’re a poor country, you copy China. If you’re a poor country with terrible crime, you cope El Salvador
    Farage and the U.K. right backward looking. All airfix kits of spitfires. Moribund.
    Straw man. That wasn’t the argument

    The fact you have to turn to the benevolent authoritarian as the model to follow is indicative of the lack of the ideas on the right. There is no radical, forward looking freedom entrepreneurial capitalist agenda. Just nostalgia driven pastiche delivered by Trump Farage and Truss.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,213
    Jonathan said:

    The right are no longer conservative. If you like pragmatic, “what matters is what works” policies you head to the left. If you want to take the world forward you also vote for the left or centre.

    If you want the world to burn or more radical change you head to the neo right (or far lef)t, who want to turn the clock back to an illusion of childhood before the modern world took hold.

    Do you really think it's some sort of odd coincidence that public spending is at an all time high, regulation is at an all-time high, and the economy is flatlining? I mean are you really too pickled in Guardianista tripe not to join those dots?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,455
    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    The right are no longer conservative. If you like pragmatic, “what matters is what works” policies you head to the left. If you want to take the world forward you also vote for the left or centre.

    If you want the world to burn or more radical change you head to the neo right (or far lef)t, who want to turn the clock back to an illusion of childhood before the modern world took hold.

    What utter shite. If you want pragmatic “what matters is what works” policies for an advanced economy, then you copy the Singaporean government

    If you’re a poor country, you copy China. If you’re a poor country with terrible crime, you cope El Salvador
    Farage and the U.K. right backward looking. All airfix kits of spitfires. Moribund.
    Straw man. That wasn’t the argument

    The fact you have to turn to the benevolent authoritarian as the model to follow is indicative of the lack of the ideas on the right. There is no radical, forward looking freedom entrepreneurial capitalist agenda. Just nostalgia driven pastiche delivered by Trump Farage and Truss.
    El Salvador is hardly nostalgic pastiche. It’s radical right wing populism - and quite revolutionary - and the President has just won the greatest mandate in the history of democracy. 85% of the vote

    Get out of your tedious little bubble
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,926

    I see SKS ordered Sue Grey to seize the personal phones of his staffers to find out who leaked the Green New Deal.

    It turns out #TelAvivKeith was the nickname being used in e mails between said staffers.

    Lol. SKS fans or should that be #TAK fans please explain

    There was a Guardian story last week, I posted a link to it, about the investigation and how staffers had been left in tears by it.

    That sort of thing in the workplace is not really acceptable and any staffer meekly handing over their personal phones to their employer is a mug.

    If my employer wanted my phone they can kiss my backside.
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,926
    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    The right are no longer conservative. If you like pragmatic, “what matters is what works” policies you head to the left. If you want to take the world forward you also vote for the left or centre.

    If you want the world to burn or more radical change you head to the neo right (or far lef)t, who want to turn the clock back to an illusion of childhood before the modern world took hold.

    What utter shite. If you want pragmatic “what matters is what works” policies for an advanced economy, then you copy the Singaporean government

    If you’re a poor country, you copy China. If you’re a poor country with terrible crime, you cope El Salvador
    Farage and the U.K. right backward looking. All airfix kits of spitfires. Moribund.
    Is this chat moribund, I don’t think so.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,455

    Jonathan said:

    The right are no longer conservative. If you like pragmatic, “what matters is what works” policies you head to the left. If you want to take the world forward you also vote for the left or centre.

    If you want the world to burn or more radical change you head to the neo right (or far lef)t, who want to turn the clock back to an illusion of childhood before the modern world took hold.

    Do you really think it's some sort of odd coincidence that public spending is at an all time high, regulation is at an all-time high, and the economy is flatlining? I mean are you really too pickled in Guardianista tripe not to join those dots?
    Not pickled. He’s just not very bright
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,455
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    $6.50 tho

    How does that even work??

    The cost of anything is the cost of the labour required to produce it.

    Things are cheap where the workers get paid bugger all.

    Is it tho? Printing is just a machine

    You feed the paper, press a button, it prints. Very little labour involved

    Surely much of the cost is the paper, “ink”, electricity, machine usage

    Getting 360 pages printed in London would cost me £20-30 at its cheapest?

    So it’s ten times cheaper here to use a printer, paper, etc. I’m sure a clever economist can explain it - I am somewhat surprised
    It's not that different from the understandable difference between the cost of property in Burnley and property in Mayfair. Economies make sense internally and as a whole; when you come into one from another planet the bits and pieces of it don't make sense.

    Why do I pay nothing to visit the British Museum or watch You Tube but loads to watch a useless lower league football team in the rain?

    The Big Mac index tries to make some sense of it.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    The right are no longer conservative. If you like pragmatic, “what matters is what works” policies you head to the left. If you want to take the world forward you also vote for the left or centre.

    If you want the world to burn or more radical change you head to the neo right (or far lef)t, who want to turn the clock back to an illusion of childhood before the modern world took hold.

    What utter shite. If you want pragmatic “what matters is what works” policies for an advanced economy, then you copy the Singaporean government

    If you’re a poor country, you copy China. If you’re a poor country with terrible crime, you cope El Salvador
    Farage and the U.K. right backward looking. All airfix kits of spitfires. Moribund.
    Straw man. That wasn’t the argument

    The fact you have to turn to the benevolent authoritarian as the model to follow is indicative of the lack of the ideas on the right. There is no radical, forward looking freedom entrepreneurial capitalist agenda. Just nostalgia driven pastiche delivered by Trump Farage and Truss.
    El Salvador is hardly nostalgic pastiche. It’s radical right wing populism - and quite revolutionary - and the President has just won the greatest mandate in the history of democracy. 85% of the vote

    Get out of your tedious little bubble
    I’m talking about the west. It maybe a tedious little bubble to you, but it still matters.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,763
    edited February 18
    Taz said:

    I see SKS ordered Sue Grey to seize the personal phones of his staffers to find out who leaked the Green New Deal.

    It turns out #TelAvivKeith was the nickname being used in e mails between said staffers.

    Lol. SKS fans or should that be #TAK fans please explain

    There was a Guardian story last week, I posted a link to it, about the investigation and how staffers had been left in tears by it.

    That sort of thing in the workplace is not really acceptable and any staffer meekly handing over their personal phones to their employer is a mug.

    If my employer wanted my phone they can kiss my backside.
    How many of these stories do there need to be, before everyone in politics has their messages set to delete themselves after 24 hours.
  • Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    Taz said:

    This is the sort of thing labour campaigners and MPs will be on the receiving end of more and more as the election campaign gets into full swing.

    Wonder how this will impact labour in its inner city seats. Not just it’s Muslim vote that is very much against the slaughter in Gaza, and labours stance which is to the right of the govt, but the young in general too.

    https://x.com/middleeasteye/status/1758996104610201972?s=61

    Fox jr2 says he won't vote Labour because of its stance on the Gaza conflict. He might vote Green.
    How old is he ?

    This is why I don’t think the Green vote share is overstated.
    Early Twenties.

    He is in a safe Labour seat in East London so I don't think it makes a difference.

    I don't think he has a particularly deep understanding of the conflict, but is appalled by Israeli actions.

    I don't think that either Netanyahu or Hamas give a toss about what foreign politicians think, except the USA for Israelis.
    It’s a key point - there are not many places in which a Green surge can hurt Labour. It just means huge majorities becoming very big ones. There are some exceptions (Bristol, Brighton, Stroud) where it’s an issue but not many. However, there is definitely some decoupling of the Greens from the general anti-Tory coalition since Corbynistas started joining up. They hate Labour much more than they hate the government.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,455
    I believe I am the first PBer to admit that I am expressing a firm opinion which is based on literally zero information and no knowledge at all, rendering my opinion entirely valueless - nonetheless it is my firm opinion, and I demand to be heard

    I WILL NOT BE SILENCED
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,800
    Leon said:

    Mind you I slightly fancy Kemi as well. And yet not Suella

    So this all has to be priced in, surely

    Just means you are not a well man
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,045
    edited February 18
    Taz said:

    I see SKS ordered Sue Grey to seize the personal phones of his staffers to find out who leaked the Green New Deal.

    It turns out #TelAvivKeith was the nickname being used in e mails between said staffers.

    Lol. SKS fans or should that be #TAK fans please explain

    There was a Guardian story last week, I posted a link to it, about the investigation and how staffers had been left in tears by it.

    That sort of thing in the workplace is not really acceptable and any staffer meekly handing over their personal phones to their employer is a mug.

    If my employer wanted my phone they can kiss my backside.
    Indeed.

    Just as when Cummings stole a phone from a Treasury staffer under the implicit threat of violence, it is unacceptable.

    Too many in senior positions on both sides seem to think the law doesn't apply to them.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,001

    Clips of yesterday's Palestine rally again included the chant "no ceasefire, no vote" which might be electorally important, especially if it spreads from London to Rochdale whose by-election is on the 29th.

    Yes. Labour will be fine in our election (they have a buffer on the buffer) but I'm a bit worried about this for Biden.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,169
    Dura_Ace said:

    PP seems to have disappeared from the public consciousness. If she wants to be leader of the tories' Unternehmen Werwolf she needs to be spouting crap on GB News and in the DM on the reg. She is not acting as if she wants it.

    That's a good point.
  • Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    The right are no longer conservative. If you like pragmatic, “what matters is what works” policies you head to the left. If you want to take the world forward you also vote for the left or centre.

    If you want the world to burn or more radical change you head to the neo right (or far lef)t, who want to turn the clock back to an illusion of childhood before the modern world took hold.

    What utter shite. If you want pragmatic “what matters is what works” policies for an advanced economy, then you copy the Singaporean government

    If you’re a poor country, you copy China. If you’re a poor country with terrible crime, you cope El Salvador

    What works is all about consent, in the end. You need a broad buy-in of a broad direction of travel: the Nordics, Switzerland, Singapore, Uruguay (never gets a mention but compare it to Argentina and Brazil) etc. They go through ups and downs but generally plough forward. China has had an extraordinary 30 year spurt but now faces huge headwinds which are leading to ever-greater authoritarianism. That suggests consent is not readily available. There may be big trouble ahead.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,793
    @DPJHodges

    Last week's by-elections were a disaster for Rishi Sunak. But things are only going to get worse. He needs to call a May election, and make his final stand > Mail On Sunday >
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,045
    Scott_xP said:

    @DPJHodges

    Last week's by-elections were a disaster for Rishi Sunak. But things are only going to get worse. He needs to call a May election, and make his final stand > Mail On Sunday >

    Has he really only been PM for sixteen months?

    Somehow, it feels a lot longer.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,455
    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    SCARY article claiming Putin really might attack NATO

    https://www.ft.com/content/9828c5c5-2568-47ce-8253-a2d3a7cc9eba

    FT so ££

    Yesterday @Cicero was claiming Putin would use nukes

    I don´t think the FT article is that "scary", it is more or less a statement of facts.

    The position I set out is that Putin is contemptuous of the West and has not been deterred by anything that we have said. The back channels and communications built up since the 1970s have now been systematically removed. There are very few ways to signal to the Kremlin that their actions cross NATO red lines. Equally, policy formation in the Kremlin is opaque and inconsistent, and it is exceptionally difficult to understand their policy limits.This collapse of deterrence removes any buffer, so that the risks of a direct attack on NATO become far higher. Indeed the military high commands of Denmark, Poland, Estonia, and Finland amongst others have issued specific and detailed warnings of likely Russian military attack.

    Putin has consistently doubled down in every crisis and this is extremely reckless. Since every Russian ZAPAD exercise concluded with a nuclear strike against a NATO capital (Bucharest, Warsaw) or Stockholm, we therefore have to assume that the use of nuclear weapons against a NATO capital is mainstream Russian military doctrine.

    No one can predict the future with detailed accuracy, but the risks of the use of nuclear weapons in Europe in the coming decade are clearly much higher than at any time since the era of detente began in the 1970s (the 1983 Able Archer near catastrophe, excepted).

    So Putin is not just an existential threat to Ukraine, but also to NATO. That threat has included the long term use of bribery, subversion, blackmail and sophisticated hybrid attacks against Western Democracy and infrastructure.

    We need to overcome this challenge, and that is what a lot of military and political thinking is being focussed on right now. Objectively the West is far stronger than Russia, and Putin knows this. However Putin thinks that he can Judo throw the West in order to restore the Soviet Imperium, including beyond the old cold war borders. I think he is reckless and deluded but we will not be able to contain him with words, so therefore we need to be prepared for more kinetic challenges from Russia in Europe.
    Interesting, thankyou. Deserves more thought than my immediate reaction here, I will muse

    I have been ridiculed on this site for freaking out about Putin Potentially Going Nuclear in late 2022 (I think it was then). I don't mind being ridiculed, I am sometimes ridiculous - HOWEVER in the last couple of days I have read several articles which say that Yes, this was a genuine and huge concern in DC (and elsewhere) at that time

    The White House, Pentagon, CIA etc really thought Putin was inches away from launching a nuke (probably tactical) as his armies retreated

    So my nuclear-themed "brace" was not so hyperbolic, after all. And that also suggests you might have a point in your graver concerns
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,763
    edited February 18
    Scott_xP said:

    @DPJHodges

    Last week's by-elections were a disaster for Rishi Sunak. But things are only going to get worse. He needs to call a May election, and make his final stand > Mail On Sunday >

    Well if Dan Hodges is suggesting May, it’s nailed on to be in the autumn.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,045
    Well done Duckett

    What is it with the players in this match that they're indulging in stupid runouts?

    Is it just to add to the gaiety of the nation?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,800
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    $6.50 tho

    How does that even work??

    The cost of anything is the cost of the labour required to produce it.

    Things are cheap where the workers get paid bugger all.

    Is it tho? Printing is just a machine

    You feed the paper, press a button, it prints. Very little labour involved

    Surely much of the cost is the paper, “ink”, electricity, machine usage

    Getting 360 pages printed in London would cost me £20-30 at its cheapest?

    So it’s ten times cheaper here to use a printer, paper, etc. I’m sure a clever economist can explain it - I am somewhat surprised
    Most of what you pay in London is for the premises.
    I bought two ink canisters for my hp printer in Ryman this week. £99. You cannot tell me that ink costs that much to make. The model is to sell you a cheap printer and milk you on the consumables.

    See also razor blades.
    Yes. Its a hideous business model but it clearly works - for them - as if hasn’t changed for many years

    I did a deep dive on it about a year ago when we
    were discussing the vileness of printers on pb. Apparently they make the machines deliberately crap and flimsy so you keep having to replace them

    Even the cheapness of the machines is an illusion
    I pay HP a measly sum every month and they send me new ink when I need it, checked remotely so I never run out , it arrives before you are done.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,763
    Duckett you numpty, don’t get yourself run out when the team needs to score 550.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,169

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    $6.50 tho

    How does that even work??

    The cost of anything is the cost of the labour required to produce it.

    Things are cheap where the workers get paid bugger all.

    Is it tho? Printing is just a machine

    You feed the paper, press a button, it prints. Very little labour involved

    Surely much of the cost is the paper, “ink”, electricity, machine usage

    Getting 360 pages printed in London would cost me £20-30 at its cheapest?

    So it’s ten times cheaper here to use a printer, paper, etc. I’m sure a clever economist can explain it - I am somewhat surprised
    Most of what you pay in London is for the premises.
    I bought two ink canisters for my hp printer in Ryman this week. £99. You cannot tell me that ink costs that much to make. The model is to sell you a cheap printer and milk you on the consumables.

    See also razor blades.
    Try sticky ink and get it delivered to your door: https://www.stinkyinkshop.co.uk/

    I don't buy anything in Rymans anymore.
    I don't
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,772
    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    SCARY article claiming Putin really might attack NATO

    https://www.ft.com/content/9828c5c5-2568-47ce-8253-a2d3a7cc9eba

    FT so ££

    Yesterday @Cicero was claiming Putin would use nukes

    I don´t think the FT article is that "scary", it is more or less a statement of facts.

    The position I set out is that Putin is contemptuous of the West and has not been deterred by anything that we have said. The back channels and communications built up since the 1970s have now been systematically removed. There are very few ways to signal to the Kremlin that their actions cross NATO red lines. Equally, policy formation in the Kremlin is opaque and inconsistent, and it is exceptionally difficult to understand their policy limits.This collapse of deterrence removes any buffer, so that the risks of a direct attack on NATO become far higher. Indeed the military high commands of Denmark, Poland, Estonia, and Finland amongst others have issued specific and detailed warnings of likely Russian military attack.

    Putin has consistently doubled down in every crisis and this is extremely reckless. Since every Russian ZAPAD exercise concluded with a nuclear strike against a NATO capital (Bucharest, Warsaw) or Stockholm, we therefore have to assume that the use of nuclear weapons against a NATO capital is mainstream Russian military doctrine.

    No one can predict the future with detailed accuracy, but the risks of the use of nuclear weapons in Europe in the coming decade are clearly much higher than at any time since the era of detente began in the 1970s (the 1983 Able Archer near catastrophe, excepted).

    So Putin is not just an existential threat to Ukraine, but also to NATO. That threat has included the long term use of bribery, subversion, blackmail and sophisticated hybrid attacks against Western Democracy and infrastructure.

    We need to overcome this challenge, and that is what a lot of military and political thinking is being focussed on right now. Objectively the West is far stronger than Russia, and Putin knows this. However Putin thinks that he can Judo throw the West in order to restore the Soviet Imperium, including beyond the old cold war borders. I think he is reckless and deluded but we will not be able to contain him with words, so therefore we need to be prepared for more kinetic challenges from Russia in Europe.
    Interesting, thankyou. Deserves more thought than my immediate reaction here, I will muse

    I have been ridiculed on this site for freaking out about Putin Potentially Going Nuclear in late 2022 (I think it was then). I don't mind being ridiculed, I am sometimes ridiculous - HOWEVER in the last couple of days I have read several articles which say that Yes, this was a genuine and huge concern in DC (and elsewhere) at that time

    The White House, Pentagon, CIA etc really thought Putin was inches away from launching a nuke (probably tactical) as his armies retreated

    So my nuclear-themed "brace" was not so hyperbolic, after all. And that also suggests you might have a point in your graver concerns
    "genuine concerns" - if the reporting is true - is not the same as 'real concerns'.

    I'm a nuke-sceptic. Putin is not insane, or even mad. He is a gambler. The gamble to invade Ukraine in February 22 nearly paid off for him in the short term - it was a darned close thing. He is now gambling that Trump will win in November.

    There are no practical benefits for Putin to use tactical *or* strategic nukes; only downsides. The only advantages of his nukes are as a threat that may cause people not to act against his aggression. And in that, they are working.
This discussion has been closed.