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I agree with David Gauke – politicalbetting.com
I agree with David Gauke – politicalbetting.com
Why Priti Patel might be the next Conservative leader*. My piece for ?@NewStatesman? on the leadership pitch that the Tory right might find persuasive.*As opposed to why she should be leader. FTAOD this is not an unlikely endorsement. https://t.co/tnwcWHiUQH
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It doesn’t mean she herself is attractive to voters or that she will ever be PM. It’s about the tory membership's proclivities after their inevitable (and likely crushing) defeat. It’s a betting tip and it’s a really good one, especially at those odds.
Thanks @TSE
Good call
So much depends on what the rump looks like, and the reaction to that defeat.
The men are in their 40s and include a high-profile businessman. The other man is understood to have political connections.
https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/other/gardaí-continuing-to-search-properties-near-tralee-after-major-crystal-meth-seizure/ar-BB1iqLeB
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/post-office-chairman-interview-henry-staunton-ws5k6sh9p (£££)
It really depends on who is left after the mushroom clouds dissipate. The bigger the defeat, the loonier the new leader has to be. In a real wipe out, Four Eyes Badenoch isn't going to be loony enough as she is WEF adjacent and the blob is (literally) up to its bollocks in her.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-party-100-mps-resign-uk-general-election-tbhv9w603 (£££)
It looks like a change election is coming, there’s new boundaries, and it’s better to plan ahead for a new life after politics, than be left in the same position as dozens of others the day after the election.
As fresh party infighting erupts after two byelection losses, the right are targeting public service funding to pay for tax cuts while others urge restraint
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/18/sunak-is-warned-spending-squeeze-could-lead-to-conservative-party-wipeout-at-election
I know. Shoot me
So this all has to be priced in, surely
I know it’s fun to take the piss out of politicians, and we all had a good laugh at the remarkably honest George Freeman, but they’re still humans, and still have to make a living and pay their mortgages. For many, an MP job will have been a pay cut, and the salary affords a comfortable rather than a lavish lifestyle. The retirees will have mostly been elected in 2005 or 2010, and will be looking for a change of scenery having served in office for more than a decade.
https://www.ft.com/content/9828c5c5-2568-47ce-8253-a2d3a7cc9eba
FT so ££
Yesterday @Cicero was claiming Putin would use nukes
Yesterday I asked a printing shop to print a 360 page document. Black and white. A4. One side per page. I emailed the document in word
They have done this and today it has been delivered to my apartment block, across the city, with this visual proof pinging on to my iPad as I sip iced coffee across the road in a lovely leafy little cafe
The total cost of all this has been $6.50 - that includes the printing. Not just the delivery
So the question is will the Torres survive and evolve, or will a new populist right party supplant them? Given the extreme volatility of the times I’d say the second is surprisingly plausible
Wonder how this will impact labour in its inner city seats. Not just it’s Muslim vote that is very much against the slaughter in Gaza, and labours stance which is to the right of the govt, but the young in general too.
https://x.com/middleeasteye/status/1758996104610201972?s=61
How does that even work??
Things are cheap where the workers get paid bugger all.
Very hard to ride 2 horses though and keep reactionary featherbedded pensioners on board.
You feed the paper, press a button, it prints. Very little labour involved
Surely much of the cost is the paper, “ink”, electricity, machine usage
Getting 360 pages printed in London would cost me £20-30 at its cheapest?
So it’s ten times cheaper here to use a printer, paper, etc. I’m sure a clever economist can explain it - I am somewhat surprised
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2017/4/20/why-does-le-pen-get-so-much-support-from-young-voters
The Tories have declared war on the young in a way that Le Pen hasn't.
Other costs too are involved. Electricity, equipment, consumables etc etc.
But where labour is a large element of the price exactly this.
Except the cheaper printers are outside london and then they deliver. But I see your point
It’s so cheap here if you had a massive printing job it might actually make sense to fly to Phnom Penh and get it done while having a holiday
This is why I don’t think the Green vote share is overstated.
A populist right wing party targeting the concerns of younger voters could do really well
I agree that the Tories are totally doomed if they remain the pensioner party. Indeed it’s a truism
He is in a safe Labour seat in East London so I don't think it makes a difference.
I don't think he has a particularly deep understanding of the conflict, but is appalled by Israeli actions.
I don't think that either Netanyahu or Hamas give a toss about what foreign politicians think, except the USA for Israelis.
We can now get a sense of their ultimate plan. Egypt is clearing a space in northern Sinai abutting Gaza
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/16/egypt-building-walled-enclosure-in-sinai-for-rafah-refugees-videos-suggest
Israel is - perhaps - going to drive all the Gazans into Sinai. As we speculated on here after October 7
See also razor blades.
If you want the world to burn or more radical change you head to the neo right (or far lef)t, who want to turn the clock back to an illusion of childhood before the modern world took hold.
It turns out #TelAvivKeith was the nickname being used in e mails between said staffers.
Lol. SKS fans or should that be #TAK fans please explain
I did a deep dive on it about a year ago when we
were discussing the vileness of printers on pb. Apparently they make the machines deliberately crap and flimsy so you keep having to replace them
Even the cheapness of the machines is an illusion
For the strategic situation going forward in terms of generational power, I don't see zoomers coming into their own for a good long time yet. Together gen x and the millenials will hold sway for the next 15-20 years.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/528577/uk-population-by-generation/#:~:text=In 2021, there were approximately,generational cohort at that time.
Eventually someone will fill the void. Its a natural law
My MP is a member of LFI and LFP talk about riding both horses
If you’re a poor country, you copy China. If you’re a poor country with terrible crime, you cope El Salvador
I wouldn't say it's unlikely that Sunak goes before he can call the election, which will harm Patel's chances as her profile is very low at the moment.
If you print more than about three pages a week, it’s cheaper in the long run to get a decent Laserjet aimed at small businesses.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Color-LaserJet-M283fdw-Laser-Wi-Fi/dp/B085LR5M1H/
However, I should add that I have literally never heard Priti Patel speak, which may or may not be relevant
But anyway that is my opinion (within that context). Her voice is fine - indeed likeable and quirky - and people should quit bitching about it
Get out of your tedious little bubble
That sort of thing in the workplace is not really acceptable and any staffer meekly handing over their personal phones to their employer is a mug.
If my employer wanted my phone they can kiss my backside.
Why do I pay nothing to visit the British Museum or watch You Tube but loads to watch a useless lower league football team in the rain?
The Big Mac index tries to make some sense of it.
I WILL NOT BE SILENCED
Just as when Cummings stole a phone from a Treasury staffer under the implicit threat of violence, it is unacceptable.
Too many in senior positions on both sides seem to think the law doesn't apply to them.
The position I set out is that Putin is contemptuous of the West and has not been deterred by anything that we have said. The back channels and communications built up since the 1970s have now been systematically removed. There are very few ways to signal to the Kremlin that their actions cross NATO red lines. Equally, policy formation in the Kremlin is opaque and inconsistent, and it is exceptionally difficult to understand their policy limits.This collapse of deterrence removes any buffer, so that the risks of a direct attack on NATO become far higher. Indeed the military high commands of Denmark, Poland, Estonia, and Finland amongst others have issued specific and detailed warnings of likely Russian military attack.
Putin has consistently doubled down in every crisis and this is extremely reckless. Since every Russian ZAPAD exercise concluded with a nuclear strike against a NATO capital (Bucharest, Warsaw) or Stockholm, we therefore have to assume that the use of nuclear weapons against a NATO capital is mainstream Russian military doctrine.
No one can predict the future with detailed accuracy, but the risks of the use of nuclear weapons in Europe in the coming decade are clearly much higher than at any time since the era of detente began in the 1970s (the 1983 Able Archer near catastrophe, excepted).
So Putin is not just an existential threat to Ukraine, but also to NATO. That threat has included the long term use of bribery, subversion, blackmail and sophisticated hybrid attacks against Western Democracy and infrastructure.
We need to overcome this challenge, and that is what a lot of military and political thinking is being focussed on right now. Objectively the West is far stronger than Russia, and Putin knows this. However Putin thinks that he can Judo throw the West in order to restore the Soviet Imperium, including beyond the old cold war borders. I think he is reckless and deluded but we will not be able to contain him with words, so therefore we need to be prepared for more kinetic challenges from Russia in Europe.
Last week's by-elections were a disaster for Rishi Sunak. But things are only going to get worse. He needs to call a May election, and make his final stand > Mail On Sunday >
Somehow, it feels a lot longer.
I have been ridiculed on this site for freaking out about Putin Potentially Going Nuclear in late 2022 (I think it was then). I don't mind being ridiculed, I am sometimes ridiculous - HOWEVER in the last couple of days I have read several articles which say that Yes, this was a genuine and huge concern in DC (and elsewhere) at that time
The White House, Pentagon, CIA etc really thought Putin was inches away from launching a nuke (probably tactical) as his armies retreated
So my nuclear-themed "brace" was not so hyperbolic, after all. And that also suggests you might have a point in your graver concerns
What is it with the players in this match that they're indulging in stupid runouts?
Is it just to add to the gaiety of the nation?
I don't buy anything in Rymans anymore.
I don't
I'm a nuke-sceptic. Putin is not insane, or even mad. He is a gambler. The gamble to invade Ukraine in February 22 nearly paid off for him in the short term - it was a darned close thing. He is now gambling that Trump will win in November.
There are no practical benefits for Putin to use tactical *or* strategic nukes; only downsides. The only advantages of his nukes are as a threat that may cause people not to act against his aggression. And in that, they are working.