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Analysing yesterday’s by-elections – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,014
edited March 12 in General
Analysing yesterday’s by-election – politicalbetting.com

"As every football fan knows, you don't win the league by a good result in February."Sir Keir Starmer says that despite Labour's victories in the Wellingborough and Kingswood by-elections, "we've got to fight for every vote". pic.twitter.com/Qz2iDv3O1B

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    Thanks James
  • Options
    If Sunak thinks this is midterm then it is a tacit admission from him that we're having a 2025 general election.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181

    If Sunak thinks this is midterm then it is a tacit admission from him that we're having a 2025 general election.

    Or just that Winchester has peculiar term dates?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938
    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    boulay said:

    Hilarious article, which isn't open to comments:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/generation-alpha-2024-stormi-webster-harper-beckham-rfl5hd9h6

    "I’m a parent to two — aged six and three. They are already aware of single-use plastics. Data shows that households with 5 to 11-year-olds have more eco-friendly habits. And when my husband’s burgundy passport expired this year, my daughter’s bafflement as we explained the new Brexit blue one suggests the kids might yet take back control."

    I'm a parent to two Gen Alphas as well, aged five and eighteen months. Not once have either ever mentioned single use plastics to me - they have occasionally on litter - and nor have they ever commented on the colour of their passport nor do they even know what Brexit is.

    They are interested, particularly the older one, in playing doctors, Elsa, dolls houses, soft play, watching kids shows on Cbeebies, and Milkshake, and being read a bedtime story. It's a struggle to get them to eat anything at all, although they drink milk like camels and love cheese. And what they mainly want is spending more time playing with mummy and daddy. Just like all kids throughout the ages.

    Why do journalists write this clickbait tripe and who do they expect to belief it?

    They write it because they want their friends and associates to think that the journalist has exceptionally clever and wise children, and guess what, the children are clever and wise because the parents are. That’s the message they are trying to get across.

    There are whole lists on Facebook of twatty parents posting stories about how their four year old quoted something by Buddha as they passed a homeless man and how the young see the truth etc etc bollocks bollocks. There is a pisstake response even now which is “and everyone clapped”.

    It’s a symptom of “main character syndrome” where so many people, thanks to social media, think they are the main character in a book or film and so think everyone wants to know what’s going on in their life and have to burnish it because in reality they are pretty normal and boring.
    I recommend "Crap on Linkedin" and "The State of Linkedin" on Twitter for exposing that type of shite on Linkedin. A few years ago I posted on LinkedIn -

    'Yesterday my four year old told me “Life is a succession of lessons which must be lived to be understood.”. I was surprised and delighted by such wisdom.

    Especially as she's a dog.'


    Now, contrary to the the claims of some on here, I do not I consider myself sort of hero of comedy. I know I'm not. Nevertheless it emerges that LinkedIn is not the place for that sort of light-hearted throwaway piss-take, as the response from other posters and my digital marketing team proved.
    A lot of female friends have left LinkedIn because it’s become a bit of a stalky attempted pick up site where they keep getting random messages from people asking them if they are single, asking them on dates or making advances.
    Wait.

    If you want to pick up women, why not use something that is more... appropriate... for that like Tinder or Plenty of Fish or whatever?
    I believe it’s a favourite for chaps who are in relationships/married as their other half doesn’t see the dating apps and no history on dating sites.
    Just do what I do and wear a Zorro mask on Tinder.

    Works every time.
    Candidly, the main problem with Tinder is that whenever you go out on a date, you're faced with a dilemma:

    Which is more important to you: mocking astrology or getting laid?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980
    The swing in Kingswood would see a Labour majority under 100, not too bad for Sunak given what he inherited from Truss.

    The swing in Wellingborough would however see the Tories near wiped out and facing the trouncing polls showed they were heading for before Truss resigned. He will hope that was down to local factors and the Tory candidate being Mr Bone's former mistress and current partner. Despite Mrs Bone signing her nomination form as a loyal Tory I suspect she will not be too displeased at the result the voters gave her ex husband's lover!
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    boulay said:

    Hilarious article, which isn't open to comments:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/generation-alpha-2024-stormi-webster-harper-beckham-rfl5hd9h6

    "I’m a parent to two — aged six and three. They are already aware of single-use plastics. Data shows that households with 5 to 11-year-olds have more eco-friendly habits. And when my husband’s burgundy passport expired this year, my daughter’s bafflement as we explained the new Brexit blue one suggests the kids might yet take back control."

    I'm a parent to two Gen Alphas as well, aged five and eighteen months. Not once have either ever mentioned single use plastics to me - they have occasionally on litter - and nor have they ever commented on the colour of their passport nor do they even know what Brexit is.

    They are interested, particularly the older one, in playing doctors, Elsa, dolls houses, soft play, watching kids shows on Cbeebies, and Milkshake, and being read a bedtime story. It's a struggle to get them to eat anything at all, although they drink milk like camels and love cheese. And what they mainly want is spending more time playing with mummy and daddy. Just like all kids throughout the ages.

    Why do journalists write this clickbait tripe and who do they expect to belief it?

    They write it because they want their friends and associates to think that the journalist has exceptionally clever and wise children, and guess what, the children are clever and wise because the parents are. That’s the message they are trying to get across.

    There are whole lists on Facebook of twatty parents posting stories about how their four year old quoted something by Buddha as they passed a homeless man and how the young see the truth etc etc bollocks bollocks. There is a pisstake response even now which is “and everyone clapped”.

    It’s a symptom of “main character syndrome” where so many people, thanks to social media, think they are the main character in a book or film and so think everyone wants to know what’s going on in their life and have to burnish it because in reality they are pretty normal and boring.
    I recommend "Crap on Linkedin" and "The State of Linkedin" on Twitter for exposing that type of shite on Linkedin. A few years ago I posted on LinkedIn -

    'Yesterday my four year old told me “Life is a succession of lessons which must be lived to be understood.”. I was surprised and delighted by such wisdom.

    Especially as she's a dog.'


    Now, contrary to the the claims of some on here, I do not I consider myself sort of hero of comedy. I know I'm not. Nevertheless it emerges that LinkedIn is not the place for that sort of light-hearted throwaway piss-take, as the response from other posters and my digital marketing team proved.
    A lot of female friends have left LinkedIn because it’s become a bit of a stalky attempted pick up site where they keep getting random messages from people asking them if they are single, asking them on dates or making advances.
    Wait.

    If you want to pick up women, why not use something that is more... appropriate... for that like Tinder or Plenty of Fish or whatever?
    I believe it’s a favourite for chaps who are in relationships/married as their other half doesn’t see the dating apps and no history on dating sites.
    Just do what I do and wear a Zorro mask on Tinder.

    Works every time.
    Candidly, the main problem with Tinder is that whenever you go out on a date, you're faced with a dilemma:

    Which is more important to you: mocking astrology or getting laid?
    In a situation where you have signed up to Tinder, the answer to that question ought to be pretty obvious.

    On Topic, Rishi's problem is that he is having to do early term unpopular stuff (cut spending, raise taxes) as the countdown clock ticks towards the next election. Even if he were a political genius, that wouldn't be easy.

    And, bless him, he isn't.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554
    ydoethur said:

    If Sunak thinks this is midterm then it is a tacit admission from him that we're having a 2025 general election.

    Or just that Winchester has peculiar term dates?
    Well it’s half term this week so he’s not wrong.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,697
    Nice one @jamesdoyle
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,144
    edited February 16
    "The swing from Conservatives to the main challenger (Labour in 14, Liberal Democrats in 4) averages 15.6%. Putting this into Electoral Calculus, and assuming a high level of tactical voting between Labour and Lib Dem, gives Labour 322, Con 257, LibDem 32: significant change on the current position, but with Labour just short (by 4 seats) of a majority."

    Surely some mistake? Putting a native swing of 15.6% into Electoral Calculus (i.e. Labour share up 15.6 and Tory share down 15.6) and I get a Labour majority of 254. What vote shares did you use for the prediction? Have I misunderstood something?
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,116

    If Sunak thinks this is midterm then it is a tacit admission from him that we're having a 2025 general election.

    Are you sure he's not given the game away about his plan to extend the life of this parliament until 2029?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,253
    What sane person would vote for another five years of this?
  • Options
    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,132
    IanB2 said:

    What sane person would vote for another five years of this?

    Everyone who's done well out of this Government and anyone who's afraid of Labour. That, especially in the former category, encompasses a lot of people. And then there are the reflexive habit voters who turn up to put an X by the Tory on polling day and otherwise pay no attention at all to politics. That's also a lot of people.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554

    "The swing from Conservatives to the main challenger (Labour in 14, Liberal Democrats in 4) averages 15.6%. Putting this into Electoral Calculus, and assuming a high level of tactical voting between Labour and Lib Dem, gives Labour 322, Con 257, LibDem 32: significant change on the current position, but with Labour just short (by 4 seats) of a majority."

    Surely some mistake? Putting a native swing of 15.6% into Electoral Calculus (i.e. Labour share up 15.6 and Tory share down 15.6) and I get a Labour majority of 254. What vote shares did you use for the prediction? Have I misunderstood something?

    Hmm, I wonder if they’ve halved the swing. What do you get if you put in 7.8%?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,161
    edited February 16

    If Sunak thinks this is midterm then it is a tacit admission from him that we're having a 2025 general election.

    I think Oct/Nov - but I would make Dec/Jan more likely than May.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,468
    edited February 16
    The legal team at Slate (who are both very liberal, and pretty smart lawyers) think that the Georgia case may be a lost cause.

    Fani Willis’ Strange, Furious Testimony May Have Blown Up Her Case Against Trump

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2024/02/fani-willis-testimony-conflict-trump-georgia.html
    ...Willis managed to put forth a set of fairly plausible rebuttals to claims that she violated any formal rules or misrepresented herself to the court. And yet none of her protestations could possibly inspire confidence in a skeptic that she should continue to lead this prosecution. Anyone bringing criminal charges against Trump is bound to face withering scrutiny of their professional and private lives; they must conduct themselves unimpeachably to avoid even a hint of bias or corruption. By failing to disclose her relationship to the court in the first instance, Willis did not live up to that standard. The consequences—for her case, for accountability, for American democracy—are already devastating..

    ..If this episode ends with McAfee disqualifying Willis from the prosecution, it will be a spectacular self-own and severely damage one of the most important efforts to hold Trump accountable for his attacks on democracy. The evidence against Trump, including a recorded conversation in which he tried to pressure Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to “find” the precise number of votes he needed to steal the election, is incredibly damning. None of it may matter, though, if Willis is disqualified. Yes, the bar is high for removal here: The defendants need to prove that Willis benefited personally from prosecuting them, or can be reasonably seen to have done so, in a way that will prejudice the case against Trump and his co-defendants. McAfee, a Republican appointee and Federalist Society member, conducted himself with great integrity on Thursday and did not tip his hand. It seems safe to say that the prosecution is already losing credibility in the court of public opinion.

    If Willis is removed from the case, things get infinitely easier for Trump. Should McAfee disqualify her, it will be up to Republican Pete Skandalakis—the director of the Prosecuting Attorneys’ Council of Georgia—to select another prosecutor to take the case. While prominent state Democrats view him as “fair-minded,” there are already indications that Skandalakis may allow politics to interfere with his legal duties..

    ..Put simply, it would be extraordinarily easy for Skandalakis to make this case go away until November and beyond...
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,116
    I can't help wondering whether Navalny's murder may make even some of Trump's hardcore think again, considering how far Trump's tongue is up Putin's arse?

    But probably I'm just harbouring the last remnants of a completely unjustified faith in human intelligence.
  • Options
    JSpringJSpring Posts: 96
    How would the Tories still win about 200 seats if they are more than 30% behind Labour, as a 22% swing would imply?
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,403
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    boulay said:

    Hilarious article, which isn't open to comments:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/generation-alpha-2024-stormi-webster-harper-beckham-rfl5hd9h6

    "I’m a parent to two — aged six and three. They are already aware of single-use plastics. Data shows that households with 5 to 11-year-olds have more eco-friendly habits. And when my husband’s burgundy passport expired this year, my daughter’s bafflement as we explained the new Brexit blue one suggests the kids might yet take back control."

    I'm a parent to two Gen Alphas as well, aged five and eighteen months. Not once have either ever mentioned single use plastics to me - they have occasionally on litter - and nor have they ever commented on the colour of their passport nor do they even know what Brexit is.

    They are interested, particularly the older one, in playing doctors, Elsa, dolls houses, soft play, watching kids shows on Cbeebies, and Milkshake, and being read a bedtime story. It's a struggle to get them to eat anything at all, although they drink milk like camels and love cheese. And what they mainly want is spending more time playing with mummy and daddy. Just like all kids throughout the ages.

    Why do journalists write this clickbait tripe and who do they expect to belief it?

    They write it because they want their friends and associates to think that the journalist has exceptionally clever and wise children, and guess what, the children are clever and wise because the parents are. That’s the message they are trying to get across.

    There are whole lists on Facebook of twatty parents posting stories about how their four year old quoted something by Buddha as they passed a homeless man and how the young see the truth etc etc bollocks bollocks. There is a pisstake response even now which is “and everyone clapped”.

    It’s a symptom of “main character syndrome” where so many people, thanks to social media, think they are the main character in a book or film and so think everyone wants to know what’s going on in their life and have to burnish it because in reality they are pretty normal and boring.
    I recommend "Crap on Linkedin" and "The State of Linkedin" on Twitter for exposing that type of shite on Linkedin. A few years ago I posted on LinkedIn -

    'Yesterday my four year old told me “Life is a succession of lessons which must be lived to be understood.”. I was surprised and delighted by such wisdom.

    Especially as she's a dog.'


    Now, contrary to the the claims of some on here, I do not I consider myself sort of hero of comedy. I know I'm not. Nevertheless it emerges that LinkedIn is not the place for that sort of light-hearted throwaway piss-take, as the response from other posters and my digital marketing team proved.
    A lot of female friends have left LinkedIn because it’s become a bit of a stalky attempted pick up site where they keep getting random messages from people asking them if they are single, asking them on dates or making advances.
    Wait.

    If you want to pick up women, why not use something that is more... appropriate... for that like Tinder or Plenty of Fish or whatever?
    I believe it’s a favourite for chaps who are in relationships/married as their other half doesn’t see the dating apps and no history on dating sites.
    Just do what I do and wear a Zorro mask on Tinder.

    Works every time.
    Candidly, the main problem with Tinder is that whenever you go out on a date, you're faced with a dilemma:

    Which is more important to you: mocking astrology or getting laid?
    Surely one can achieve both objectives, if you prioritise to choose the correct sequence?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,468
    .
    Selebian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    boulay said:

    Hilarious article, which isn't open to comments:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/generation-alpha-2024-stormi-webster-harper-beckham-rfl5hd9h6

    "I’m a parent to two — aged six and three. They are already aware of single-use plastics. Data shows that households with 5 to 11-year-olds have more eco-friendly habits. And when my husband’s burgundy passport expired this year, my daughter’s bafflement as we explained the new Brexit blue one suggests the kids might yet take back control."

    I'm a parent to two Gen Alphas as well, aged five and eighteen months. Not once have either ever mentioned single use plastics to me - they have occasionally on litter - and nor have they ever commented on the colour of their passport nor do they even know what Brexit is.

    They are interested, particularly the older one, in playing doctors, Elsa, dolls houses, soft play, watching kids shows on Cbeebies, and Milkshake, and being read a bedtime story. It's a struggle to get them to eat anything at all, although they drink milk like camels and love cheese. And what they mainly want is spending more time playing with mummy and daddy. Just like all kids throughout the ages.

    Why do journalists write this clickbait tripe and who do they expect to belief it?

    They write it because they want their friends and associates to think that the journalist has exceptionally clever and wise children, and guess what, the children are clever and wise because the parents are. That’s the message they are trying to get across.

    There are whole lists on Facebook of twatty parents posting stories about how their four year old quoted something by Buddha as they passed a homeless man and how the young see the truth etc etc bollocks bollocks. There is a pisstake response even now which is “and everyone clapped”.

    It’s a symptom of “main character syndrome” where so many people, thanks to social media, think they are the main character in a book or film and so think everyone wants to know what’s going on in their life and have to burnish it because in reality they are pretty normal and boring.
    I recommend "Crap on Linkedin" and "The State of Linkedin" on Twitter for exposing that type of shite on Linkedin. A few years ago I posted on LinkedIn -

    'Yesterday my four year old told me “Life is a succession of lessons which must be lived to be understood.”. I was surprised and delighted by such wisdom.

    Especially as she's a dog.'


    Now, contrary to the the claims of some on here, I do not I consider myself sort of hero of comedy. I know I'm not. Nevertheless it emerges that LinkedIn is not the place for that sort of light-hearted throwaway piss-take, as the response from other posters and my digital marketing team proved.
    A lot of female friends have left LinkedIn because it’s become a bit of a stalky attempted pick up site where they keep getting random messages from people asking them if they are single, asking them on dates or making advances.
    Wait.

    If you want to pick up women, why not use something that is more... appropriate... for that like Tinder or Plenty of Fish or whatever?
    I believe it’s a favourite for chaps who are in relationships/married as their other half doesn’t see the dating apps and no history on dating sites.
    Just do what I do and wear a Zorro mask on Tinder.

    Works every time.
    Candidly, the main problem with Tinder is that whenever you go out on a date, you're faced with a dilemma:

    Which is more important to you: mocking astrology or getting laid?
    Surely one can achieve both objectives, if you prioritise to choose the correct sequence?
    Best to refrain from mentioning Uranus is in the ascendant.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,767
    Chris said:

    I can't help wondering whether Navalny's murder may make even some of Trump's hardcore think again, considering how far Trump's tongue is up Putin's arse?

    But probably I'm just harbouring the last remnants of a completely unjustified faith in human intelligence.

    47 year old politicians die all the time. Nothing to see, move along comrade. Our view is that he would have died in his early 40s if not for the bracing Siberian air that his therapy entailed. Of course he'd have lived to be 102 if his mind hadn't been poisoned by western culture.

    We, the Kremlin, would like to open a window for anyone concerned by his death to discuss matters.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,279

    Just booked my flights for my holiday

    19 April - Stansted to Santiago de Compostela
    13 May - Biarritz to Stansted

    For a grand total of £71.39

    I have to fly Ryanair, but still.. I think it'll cost me about the same to get to Stansted and back by train

    I'm planning to walk from Santiago to Saint Jean Pied de Port (about 500 miles, I expect) in twenty days, then to get a bus to San Sebastian for a couple of nights and lots of great food, then the last night in Biarritz

    I'm only going to book the first night's stay

    What an excellent plan. Well done you. What are you packing.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,709
    Chris said:

    I can't help wondering whether Navalny's murder may make even some of Trump's hardcore think again, considering how far Trump's tongue is up Putin's arse?

    But probably I'm just harbouring the last remnants of a completely unjustified faith in human intelligence.

    Nikki Haley "Mr Trump “continues to side with Vladimir Putin—a man who kills his political opponents, holds American journalists hostage, and has never hidden his desire to destroy America”.

    “Trump continues to side with Putin over our allies and our military service members,” she added.
  • Options
    IcarusIcarus Posts: 898
    TOPPING said:

    Just booked my flights for my holiday

    19 April - Stansted to Santiago de Compostela
    13 May - Biarritz to Stansted

    For a grand total of £71.39

    I have to fly Ryanair, but still.. I think it'll cost me about the same to get to Stansted and back by train

    I'm planning to walk from Santiago to Saint Jean Pied de Port (about 500 miles, I expect) in twenty days, then to get a bus to San Sebastian for a couple of nights and lots of great food, then the last night in Biarritz

    I'm only going to book the first night's stay

    What an excellent plan. Well done you. What are you packing.
    With Ryanair flights to Spain it is cheaper to buy 2 singles than a return . The leg back from Spain is priced in Euros and yesterday booked to fly to Malaga and back - If bought a return the Malaga - Luton cost was £98 (for 2 people) but I only paid £83 (after conversion from Euros)
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,386
    pigeon said:

    IanB2 said:

    What sane person would vote for another five years of this?

    Everyone who's done well out of this Government and anyone who's afraid of Labour. That, especially in the former category, encompasses a lot of people. And then there are the reflexive habit voters who turn up to put an X by the Tory on polling day and otherwise pay no attention at all to politics. That's also a lot of people.
    I have no enthusiasm for this government.
    Yet there is only one alternative government: Labour. And in almost every respect in which I think the government are wrong, Labour are or have been just as wrong or are wronger. Labour aren't going to invest in infrastructure in the north or grow the economy or control immigration or fight back against the lunatic fringes of woke or make our lives more pleasant in any way. The worst and most inept and most disastrous thing this government has done - lockdown - Labour were urging them to do more and harder.

    So while I've no motivation for more of the current shit, voting Conservative might be the only way to stop what looks to me like an even worse option. That's the only reason I can see the Cons might still get votes.

    Labour might, I suppose, possibly build more houses. That's one respect in which they might be an improvement.

    (For the record, I'm still undecided on who to vote for.)
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,468

    Chris said:

    I can't help wondering whether Navalny's murder may make even some of Trump's hardcore think again, considering how far Trump's tongue is up Putin's arse?

    But probably I'm just harbouring the last remnants of a completely unjustified faith in human intelligence.

    Nikki Haley "Mr Trump “continues to side with Vladimir Putin—a man who kills his political opponents, holds American journalists hostage, and has never hidden his desire to destroy America”.

    “Trump continues to side with Putin over our allies and our military service members,” she added.
    Romney: “I will not be voting for former President Trump. I must admit that I find sexual assault to be a line I will not cross in the people I select to be my president.”
    https://twitter.com/Victorshi2020/status/1758526405527421275
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,316

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    boulay said:

    Hilarious article, which isn't open to comments:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/generation-alpha-2024-stormi-webster-harper-beckham-rfl5hd9h6

    "I’m a parent to two — aged six and three. They are already aware of single-use plastics. Data shows that households with 5 to 11-year-olds have more eco-friendly habits. And when my husband’s burgundy passport expired this year, my daughter’s bafflement as we explained the new Brexit blue one suggests the kids might yet take back control."

    I'm a parent to two Gen Alphas as well, aged five and eighteen months. Not once have either ever mentioned single use plastics to me - they have occasionally on litter - and nor have they ever commented on the colour of their passport nor do they even know what Brexit is.

    They are interested, particularly the older one, in playing doctors, Elsa, dolls houses, soft play, watching kids shows on Cbeebies, and Milkshake, and being read a bedtime story. It's a struggle to get them to eat anything at all, although they drink milk like camels and love cheese. And what they mainly want is spending more time playing with mummy and daddy. Just like all kids throughout the ages.

    Why do journalists write this clickbait tripe and who do they expect to belief it?

    They write it because they want their friends and associates to think that the journalist has exceptionally clever and wise children, and guess what, the children are clever and wise because the parents are. That’s the message they are trying to get across.

    There are whole lists on Facebook of twatty parents posting stories about how their four year old quoted something by Buddha as they passed a homeless man and how the young see the truth etc etc bollocks bollocks. There is a pisstake response even now which is “and everyone clapped”.

    It’s a symptom of “main character syndrome” where so many people, thanks to social media, think they are the main character in a book or film and so think everyone wants to know what’s going on in their life and have to burnish it because in reality they are pretty normal and boring.
    I recommend "Crap on Linkedin" and "The State of Linkedin" on Twitter for exposing that type of shite on Linkedin. A few years ago I posted on LinkedIn -

    'Yesterday my four year old told me “Life is a succession of lessons which must be lived to be understood.”. I was surprised and delighted by such wisdom.

    Especially as she's a dog.'


    Now, contrary to the the claims of some on here, I do not I consider myself sort of hero of comedy. I know I'm not. Nevertheless it emerges that LinkedIn is not the place for that sort of light-hearted throwaway piss-take, as the response from other posters and my digital marketing team proved.
    A lot of female friends have left LinkedIn because it’s become a bit of a stalky attempted pick up site where they keep getting random messages from people asking them if they are single, asking them on dates or making advances.
    Wait.

    If you want to pick up women, why not use something that is more... appropriate... for that like Tinder or Plenty of Fish or whatever?
    I believe it’s a favourite for chaps who are in relationships/married as their other half doesn’t see the dating apps and no history on dating sites.
    Just do what I do and wear a Zorro mask on Tinder.

    Works every time.
    Candidly, the main problem with Tinder is that whenever you go out on a date, you're faced with a dilemma:

    Which is more important to you: mocking astrology or getting laid?
    In a situation where you have signed up to Tinder, the answer to that question ought to be pretty obvious.

    On Topic, Rishi's problem is that he is having to do early term unpopular stuff (cut spending, raise taxes) as the countdown clock ticks towards the next election. Even if he were a political genius, that wouldn't be easy.

    And, bless him, he isn't.
    In short - Rishi has been dealt a shit hand. And is shit at playing it.
  • Options
    IcarusIcarus Posts: 898
    From the Guardian

    "Rishi Sunak has been warned by leading One Nation group Conservatives it would be “politically disastrous” to veer further to the right after two heavy byelection losses to Labour.

    The prime minister faces a dilemma over his future strategy as the byelection defeats in Kingswood and Wellingborough showed his party lost votes to a victorious Labour on the left and insurgent Reform UK on the right.

    After the results he faced calls from Jacob Rees-Mogg and the New Conservatives’ Danny Kruger and Miriam Cates to “reunite the right” and win back Reform voters, as well as those who stayed at home, to “the Tory family”. Cates and Kruger called for tax cuts, more curbs on immigration and welfare and a willingness to withdraw from the European convention on human rights, as the Reform party took 10-13% of the vote in the two seats.
    But Damian Green, the leader of the One Nation caucus of more than 100 Conservative MPs, said it was wrong to believe the Reform and Tory vote could be added together, and called for the party to unite around current policies.

    “If we attempt to become the Reform party, we will get the Reform party’s level of support,” he told the Guardian. “It seems politically disastrous to me."


    As we used to say in the playground -Fight, Fight!!
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,144
    TimS said:

    "The swing from Conservatives to the main challenger (Labour in 14, Liberal Democrats in 4) averages 15.6%. Putting this into Electoral Calculus, and assuming a high level of tactical voting between Labour and Lib Dem, gives Labour 322, Con 257, LibDem 32: significant change on the current position, but with Labour just short (by 4 seats) of a majority."

    Surely some mistake? Putting a native swing of 15.6% into Electoral Calculus (i.e. Labour share up 15.6 and Tory share down 15.6) and I get a Labour majority of 254. What vote shares did you use for the prediction? Have I misunderstood something?

    Hmm, I wonder if they’ve halved the swing. What do you get if you put in 7.8%?
    Yes, that must be it. Shares of 40.8% - 36.9% with no other changes, gives 319 Labour seats.

    Simple mistake to make to repeat the halving required to calculate a swing in the opposite direction.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,468
    edited February 16
    Manchin announces he will not be involved in a third party run.
    https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1758533282264686832
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,937
    Chris said:

    I can't help wondering whether Navalny's murder may make even some of Trump's hardcore think again, considering how far Trump's tongue is up Putin's arse?

    But probably I'm just harbouring the last remnants of a completely unjustified faith in human intelligence.

    Nope.

    Tucker Carlson:
    "Tucker Carlson, when asked about Alexei Navalny, opposition leaders and journalists in Russia: “Every leader kills people. Some kill more than others. Leadership requires killing people.”"

    https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1758515284741173538

    This may have been before today's events, but I don't think Carlson or many in the GOP will change their minds.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 609

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    boulay said:

    Hilarious article, which isn't open to comments:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/generation-alpha-2024-stormi-webster-harper-beckham-rfl5hd9h6

    "I’m a parent to two — aged six and three. They are already aware of single-use plastics. Data shows that households with 5 to 11-year-olds have more eco-friendly habits. And when my husband’s burgundy passport expired this year, my daughter’s bafflement as we explained the new Brexit blue one suggests the kids might yet take back control."

    I'm a parent to two Gen Alphas as well, aged five and eighteen months. Not once have either ever mentioned single use plastics to me - they have occasionally on litter - and nor have they ever commented on the colour of their passport nor do they even know what Brexit is.

    They are interested, particularly the older one, in playing doctors, Elsa, dolls houses, soft play, watching kids shows on Cbeebies, and Milkshake, and being read a bedtime story. It's a struggle to get them to eat anything at all, although they drink milk like camels and love cheese. And what they mainly want is spending more time playing with mummy and daddy. Just like all kids throughout the ages.

    Why do journalists write this clickbait tripe and who do they expect to belief it?

    They write it because they want their friends and associates to think that the journalist has exceptionally clever and wise children, and guess what, the children are clever and wise because the parents are. That’s the message they are trying to get across.

    There are whole lists on Facebook of twatty parents posting stories about how their four year old quoted something by Buddha as they passed a homeless man and how the young see the truth etc etc bollocks bollocks. There is a pisstake response even now which is “and everyone clapped”.

    It’s a symptom of “main character syndrome” where so many people, thanks to social media, think they are the main character in a book or film and so think everyone wants to know what’s going on in their life and have to burnish it because in reality they are pretty normal and boring.
    I recommend "Crap on Linkedin" and "The State of Linkedin" on Twitter for exposing that type of shite on Linkedin. A few years ago I posted on LinkedIn -

    'Yesterday my four year old told me “Life is a succession of lessons which must be lived to be understood.”. I was surprised and delighted by such wisdom.

    Especially as she's a dog.'


    Now, contrary to the the claims of some on here, I do not I consider myself sort of hero of comedy. I know I'm not. Nevertheless it emerges that LinkedIn is not the place for that sort of light-hearted throwaway piss-take, as the response from other posters and my digital marketing team proved.
    A lot of female friends have left LinkedIn because it’s become a bit of a stalky attempted pick up site where they keep getting random messages from people asking them if they are single, asking them on dates or making advances.
    Wait.

    If you want to pick up women, why not use something that is more... appropriate... for that like Tinder or Plenty of Fish or whatever?
    I believe it’s a favourite for chaps who are in relationships/married as their other half doesn’t see the dating apps and no history on dating sites.
    Just do what I do and wear a Zorro mask on Tinder.

    Works every time.
    Candidly, the main problem with Tinder is that whenever you go out on a date, you're faced with a dilemma:

    Which is more important to you: mocking astrology or getting laid?
    In a situation where you have signed up to Tinder, the answer to that question ought to be pretty obvious.

    On Topic, Rishi's problem is that he is having to do early term unpopular stuff (cut spending, raise taxes) as the countdown clock ticks towards the next election. Even if he were a political genius, that wouldn't be easy.

    And, bless him, he isn't.
    In short - Rishi has been dealt a shit hand. And is shit at playing it.
    The thing is that all he had to do was play it safe. After Boris & Truss, that would have been enough of a change.

    Dull but competent. Steal Starmer's "Mr Steady" costume, but throw in a small tax cut of some sort as a marker for a brighter post-election future.

    It might have been enough. It would at least have limited the size of the coming defeat.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554
    Cookie said:

    pigeon said:

    IanB2 said:

    What sane person would vote for another five years of this?

    Everyone who's done well out of this Government and anyone who's afraid of Labour. That, especially in the former category, encompasses a lot of people. And then there are the reflexive habit voters who turn up to put an X by the Tory on polling day and otherwise pay no attention at all to politics. That's also a lot of people.
    I have no enthusiasm for this government.
    Yet there is only one alternative government: Labour. And in almost every respect in which I think the government are wrong, Labour are or have been just as wrong or are wronger. Labour aren't going to invest in infrastructure in the north or grow the economy or control immigration or fight back against the lunatic fringes of woke or make our lives more pleasant in any way. The worst and most inept and most disastrous thing this government has done - lockdown - Labour were urging them to do more and harder.

    So while I've no motivation for more of the current shit, voting Conservative might be the only way to stop what looks to me like an even worse option. That's the only reason I can see the Cons might still get votes.

    Labour might, I suppose, possibly build more houses. That's one respect in which they might be an improvement.

    (For the record, I'm still undecided on who to vote for.)
    They will have a couple of advantages over the incumbents, which are unrelated to ideology:

    1. A fresh incoming ministerial team who’ve had several years to develop ideas and plans, and will attack their briefs with enthusiasm rather than cynicism.
    2. A public mandate and a media (probably) ready to give the benefit of the doubt, which means any sensible plans don’t immediately get scuppered by politics, backbench positioning or opinion polls

    The coalition had the same two benefits in 2010 and it meant they were able to get quite a lot of policies through in the first couple of years, for good or bad.

    Always worth giving the other lot a go once in a while. It’s like a bowling change when you’re struggling for a wicket.
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    Just booked my flights for my holiday

    19 April - Stansted to Santiago de Compostela
    13 May - Biarritz to Stansted

    For a grand total of £71.39

    I have to fly Ryanair, but still.. I think it'll cost me about the same to get to Stansted and back by train

    I'm planning to walk from Santiago to Saint Jean Pied de Port (about 500 miles, I expect) in twenty days, then to get a bus to San Sebastian for a couple of nights and lots of great food, then the last night in Biarritz

    I'm only going to book the first night's stay

    What an excellent plan. Well done you. What are you packing.
    I've been thinking about this today..

    A pair of shorts, four t-shirts, sets of underwear and pairs of socks, a pack of hikers' wool (never used it before, but apparently great for blister prevention), my umbrella, Minirig speaker, continental adaptor plug with USB ports, a few leads, two USB battery packs, toiletries and one of those Apple luggage trackers so my Mum will know where I am


    It needs to fit under the seat in front
  • Options
    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,132
    Cookie said:

    pigeon said:

    IanB2 said:

    What sane person would vote for another five years of this?

    Everyone who's done well out of this Government and anyone who's afraid of Labour. That, especially in the former category, encompasses a lot of people. And then there are the reflexive habit voters who turn up to put an X by the Tory on polling day and otherwise pay no attention at all to politics. That's also a lot of people.
    I have no enthusiasm for this government.
    Yet there is only one alternative government: Labour. And in almost every respect in which I think the government are wrong, Labour are or have been just as wrong or are wronger. Labour aren't going to invest in infrastructure in the north or grow the economy or control immigration or fight back against the lunatic fringes of woke or make our lives more pleasant in any way. The worst and most inept and most disastrous thing this government has done - lockdown - Labour were urging them to do more and harder.

    So while I've no motivation for more of the current shit, voting Conservative might be the only way to stop what looks to me like an even worse option. That's the only reason I can see the Cons might still get votes.

    Labour might, I suppose, possibly build more houses. That's one respect in which they might be an improvement.

    (For the record, I'm still undecided on who to vote for.)
    There is no reason at all to believe Labour pledges on housing development. Firstly because there's no reason to believe politicians on almost any subject; secondly because an election performance strong enough to get Starmer into Downing Street will create a fresh cohort of suburbanite Labour MPs who will be every inch as Nimbyish as the Tories they replace; and thirdly because it would infuriate the wealthy grey vote, who are the only people (save for the extremely rich) who MPs actually care about, and who have a vested interest both in frustrating development anywhere near their own homes, and in choking off the supply of property full stop to ensure that their house prices continue to go up.

    There is every indication, stretching back well before the immolation of the green spending pledges to the refusal of Reeves to countenance any measures either to reform the state pension or to shift the burden of taxation from earned incomes to assets, that Labour are just another Conservative Party, almost entirely in hock to Tory voters, Tory interests and Tory ideas. Their offer for the next election will be a commitment to change as little as possible so as not to upset the winners from the existing settlement. A Labour Government is about changing the name plates on office doors and the bums on the seats of ministerial limos and little else.
  • Options
    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    I ran to Westminster on my 18K run, did my bit and gave the Tories the bird.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,279

    TOPPING said:

    Just booked my flights for my holiday

    19 April - Stansted to Santiago de Compostela
    13 May - Biarritz to Stansted

    For a grand total of £71.39

    I have to fly Ryanair, but still.. I think it'll cost me about the same to get to Stansted and back by train

    I'm planning to walk from Santiago to Saint Jean Pied de Port (about 500 miles, I expect) in twenty days, then to get a bus to San Sebastian for a couple of nights and lots of great food, then the last night in Biarritz

    I'm only going to book the first night's stay

    What an excellent plan. Well done you. What are you packing.
    I've been thinking about this today..

    A pair of shorts, four t-shirts, sets of underwear and pairs of socks, a pack of hikers' wool (never used it before, but apparently great for blister prevention), my umbrella, Minirig speaker, continental adaptor plug with USB ports, a few leads, two USB battery packs, toiletries and one of those Apple luggage trackers so my Mum will know where I am


    It needs to fit under the seat in front
    nice
  • Options
    pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,132
    TimS said:

    Cookie said:

    pigeon said:

    IanB2 said:

    What sane person would vote for another five years of this?

    Everyone who's done well out of this Government and anyone who's afraid of Labour. That, especially in the former category, encompasses a lot of people. And then there are the reflexive habit voters who turn up to put an X by the Tory on polling day and otherwise pay no attention at all to politics. That's also a lot of people.
    I have no enthusiasm for this government.
    Yet there is only one alternative government: Labour. And in almost every respect in which I think the government are wrong, Labour are or have been just as wrong or are wronger. Labour aren't going to invest in infrastructure in the north or grow the economy or control immigration or fight back against the lunatic fringes of woke or make our lives more pleasant in any way. The worst and most inept and most disastrous thing this government has done - lockdown - Labour were urging them to do more and harder.

    So while I've no motivation for more of the current shit, voting Conservative might be the only way to stop what looks to me like an even worse option. That's the only reason I can see the Cons might still get votes.

    Labour might, I suppose, possibly build more houses. That's one respect in which they might be an improvement.

    (For the record, I'm still undecided on who to vote for.)
    They will have a couple of advantages over the incumbents, which are unrelated to ideology:

    1. A fresh incoming ministerial team who’ve had several years to develop ideas and plans, and will attack their briefs with enthusiasm rather than cynicism.
    2. A public mandate and a media (probably) ready to give the benefit of the doubt, which means any sensible plans don’t immediately get scuppered by politics, backbench positioning or opinion polls

    The coalition had the same two benefits in 2010 and it meant they were able to get quite a lot of policies through in the first couple of years, for good or bad.

    Always worth giving the other lot a go once in a while. It’s like a bowling change when you’re struggling for a wicket.
    What ideas and plans? They've thrown away almost everything that involves either raising money or spending it differently already. We're left with dishwatery utterances about often unspecified reform and little else (and there's no reason to suppose that many of the remaining policies won't be dumped the nanosecond they're subjected to Tory attack ads.)

    The Opposition is rapidly evolving into an empty vessel whose sole appeal is not being the other lot, and hence we move on swiftly to the concept of Buggins' Turn that you promote. The Labour-Tory-Labour-Tory cycle, moving steadily further rightwards and deeper into poverty and decrepitude with every passing year, is what's going to land us with Suella Braverman (or worse) when Starmer fails to deliver anything of substance and whatever Conservative voters he's able to appease with a programme of unthreatening continuity get bored of him and go home.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,767
    Chris said:

    AlsoLei said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    boulay said:

    Hilarious article, which isn't open to comments:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/generation-alpha-2024-stormi-webster-harper-beckham-rfl5hd9h6

    "I’m a parent to two — aged six and three. They are already aware of single-use plastics. Data shows that households with 5 to 11-year-olds have more eco-friendly habits. And when my husband’s burgundy passport expired this year, my daughter’s bafflement as we explained the new Brexit blue one suggests the kids might yet take back control."

    I'm a parent to two Gen Alphas as well, aged five and eighteen months. Not once have either ever mentioned single use plastics to me - they have occasionally on litter - and nor have they ever commented on the colour of their passport nor do they even know what Brexit is.

    They are interested, particularly the older one, in playing doctors, Elsa, dolls houses, soft play, watching kids shows on Cbeebies, and Milkshake, and being read a bedtime story. It's a struggle to get them to eat anything at all, although they drink milk like camels and love cheese. And what they mainly want is spending more time playing with mummy and daddy. Just like all kids throughout the ages.

    Why do journalists write this clickbait tripe and who do they expect to belief it?

    They write it because they want their friends and associates to think that the journalist has exceptionally clever and wise children, and guess what, the children are clever and wise because the parents are. That’s the message they are trying to get across.

    There are whole lists on Facebook of twatty parents posting stories about how their four year old quoted something by Buddha as they passed a homeless man and how the young see the truth etc etc bollocks bollocks. There is a pisstake response even now which is “and everyone clapped”.

    It’s a symptom of “main character syndrome” where so many people, thanks to social media, think they are the main character in a book or film and so think everyone wants to know what’s going on in their life and have to burnish it because in reality they are pretty normal and boring.
    I recommend "Crap on Linkedin" and "The State of Linkedin" on Twitter for exposing that type of shite on Linkedin. A few years ago I posted on LinkedIn -

    'Yesterday my four year old told me “Life is a succession of lessons which must be lived to be understood.”. I was surprised and delighted by such wisdom.

    Especially as she's a dog.'


    Now, contrary to the the claims of some on here, I do not I consider myself sort of hero of comedy. I know I'm not. Nevertheless it emerges that LinkedIn is not the place for that sort of light-hearted throwaway piss-take, as the response from other posters and my digital marketing team proved.
    A lot of female friends have left LinkedIn because it’s become a bit of a stalky attempted pick up site where they keep getting random messages from people asking them if they are single, asking them on dates or making advances.
    Wait.

    If you want to pick up women, why not use something that is more... appropriate... for that like Tinder or Plenty of Fish or whatever?
    I believe it’s a favourite for chaps who are in relationships/married as their other half doesn’t see the dating apps and no history on dating sites.
    Just do what I do and wear a Zorro mask on Tinder.

    Works every time.
    Candidly, the main problem with Tinder is that whenever you go out on a date, you're faced with a dilemma:

    Which is more important to you: mocking astrology or getting laid?
    In a situation where you have signed up to Tinder, the answer to that question ought to be pretty obvious.

    On Topic, Rishi's problem is that he is having to do early term unpopular stuff (cut spending, raise taxes) as the countdown clock ticks towards the next election. Even if he were a political genius, that wouldn't be easy.

    And, bless him, he isn't.
    In short - Rishi has been dealt a shit hand. And is shit at playing it.
    The thing is that all he had to do was play it safe. After Boris & Truss, that would have been enough of a change.

    Dull but competent. Steal Starmer's "Mr Steady" costume, but throw in a small tax cut of some sort as a marker for a brighter post-election future.

    It might have been enough. It would at least have limited the size of the coming defeat.
    Fate was cruel to him. All he had to do was be competent. Yet competence was the once thing he lacked.

    Well, competence and common sense.

    Come to think of it, competence, common sense and humility.

    Among the things he lacks are such diverse elements as competence, common sense, humility and the ability to use a contactless card ...
    It may be as simple as he lacks friends. I can't think of a single solid Sunak ally. That'd explain more fully Cameron's return as he's quite good at that.

  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,875
    Confusing news from the byelections in Wellingborough and Kingswood, given that Downing Street has spent recent weeks explaining Britain is “pointing in the right direction” and has “turned the corner”. Someone should probably tell Britain, which is now officially in recession, and where Wellingborough just went Labour on the second biggest swing of its kind since the second world war. Kingswood likewise “turned the corner” away from the Conservatives to the tune of a 16.4% swing. Furthermore, it was an eye-catching night for Reform, the Tories’ Jill Stein. Or as Rishi Sunak put it this morning: “Our plan is working.” In which case, could there possibly be an argument for adopting George from Seinfeld’s iconic “do the opposite” strategy?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/16/sunak-reform-labour-byelection-wellingborough-kingswood
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,302

    I ran to Westminster on my 18K run, did my bit and gave the Tories the bird.

    Wow, you're grown up. Well done you. 👏
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,468
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just booked my flights for my holiday

    19 April - Stansted to Santiago de Compostela
    13 May - Biarritz to Stansted

    For a grand total of £71.39

    I have to fly Ryanair, but still.. I think it'll cost me about the same to get to Stansted and back by train

    I'm planning to walk from Santiago to Saint Jean Pied de Port (about 500 miles, I expect) in twenty days, then to get a bus to San Sebastian for a couple of nights and lots of great food, then the last night in Biarritz

    I'm only going to book the first night's stay

    What an excellent plan. Well done you. What are you packing.
    I've been thinking about this today..

    A pair of shorts, four t-shirts, sets of underwear and pairs of socks, a pack of hikers' wool (never used it before, but apparently great for blister prevention), my umbrella, Minirig speaker, continental adaptor plug with USB ports, a few leads, two USB battery packs, toiletries and one of those Apple luggage trackers so my Mum will know where I am

    It needs to fit under the seat in front
    nice
    If you're worried about blisters, those blister plasters are very effective.
    Saved me from abandoning a long hike.
    And take up no space on your bag.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,078

    I ran to Westminster on my 18K run, did my bit and gave the Tories the bird.

    Top bantz
  • Options
    PJHPJH Posts: 485
    pigeon said:

    TimS said:

    Cookie said:

    pigeon said:

    IanB2 said:

    What sane person would vote for another five years of this?

    Everyone who's done well out of this Government and anyone who's afraid of Labour. That, especially in the former category, encompasses a lot of people. And then there are the reflexive habit voters who turn up to put an X by the Tory on polling day and otherwise pay no attention at all to politics. That's also a lot of people.
    I have no enthusiasm for this government.
    Yet there is only one alternative government: Labour. And in almost every respect in which I think the government are wrong, Labour are or have been just as wrong or are wronger. Labour aren't going to invest in infrastructure in the north or grow the economy or control immigration or fight back against the lunatic fringes of woke or make our lives more pleasant in any way. The worst and most inept and most disastrous thing this government has done - lockdown - Labour were urging them to do more and harder.

    So while I've no motivation for more of the current shit, voting Conservative might be the only way to stop what looks to me like an even worse option. That's the only reason I can see the Cons might still get votes.

    Labour might, I suppose, possibly build more houses. That's one respect in which they might be an improvement.

    (For the record, I'm still undecided on who to vote for.)
    They will have a couple of advantages over the incumbents, which are unrelated to ideology:

    1. A fresh incoming ministerial team who’ve had several years to develop ideas and plans, and will attack their briefs with enthusiasm rather than cynicism.
    2. A public mandate and a media (probably) ready to give the benefit of the doubt, which means any sensible plans don’t immediately get scuppered by politics, backbench positioning or opinion polls

    The coalition had the same two benefits in 2010 and it meant they were able to get quite a lot of policies through in the first couple of years, for good or bad.

    Always worth giving the other lot a go once in a while. It’s like a bowling change when you’re struggling for a wicket.
    What ideas and plans? They've thrown away almost everything that involves either raising money or spending it differently already. We're left with dishwatery utterances about often unspecified reform and little else (and there's no reason to suppose that many of the remaining policies won't be dumped the nanosecond they're subjected to Tory attack ads.)

    The Opposition is rapidly evolving into an empty vessel whose sole appeal is not being the other lot, and hence we move on swiftly to the concept of Buggins' Turn that you promote. The Labour-Tory-Labour-Tory cycle, moving steadily further rightwards and deeper into poverty and decrepitude with every passing year, is what's going to land us with Suella Braverman (or worse) when Starmer fails to deliver anything of substance and whatever Conservative voters he's able to appease with a programme of unthreatening continuity get bored of him and go home.
    Not being the current shower of incompetents is probably more than enough.

    If you are a conservative, you should vote Labour currently.

    I'm not a conservative, but I'm wondering if the first point is enough for me this time.

    In practice it doesn't matter who I vote for, as it won't affect the outcome of the election in my seat, and even if it does, the Tories will have lost so heavily that it still won't matter.
  • Options
    Omnium said:

    Chris said:

    AlsoLei said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    boulay said:

    Hilarious article, which isn't open to comments:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/generation-alpha-2024-stormi-webster-harper-beckham-rfl5hd9h6

    "I’m a parent to two — aged six and three. They are already aware of single-use plastics. Data shows that households with 5 to 11-year-olds have more eco-friendly habits. And when my husband’s burgundy passport expired this year, my daughter’s bafflement as we explained the new Brexit blue one suggests the kids might yet take back control."

    I'm a parent to two Gen Alphas as well, aged five and eighteen months. Not once have either ever mentioned single use plastics to me - they have occasionally on litter - and nor have they ever commented on the colour of their passport nor do they even know what Brexit is.

    They are interested, particularly the older one, in playing doctors, Elsa, dolls houses, soft play, watching kids shows on Cbeebies, and Milkshake, and being read a bedtime story. It's a struggle to get them to eat anything at all, although they drink milk like camels and love cheese. And what they mainly want is spending more time playing with mummy and daddy. Just like all kids throughout the ages.

    Why do journalists write this clickbait tripe and who do they expect to belief it?

    They write it because they want their friends and associates to think that the journalist has exceptionally clever and wise children, and guess what, the children are clever and wise because the parents are. That’s the message they are trying to get across.

    There are whole lists on Facebook of twatty parents posting stories about how their four year old quoted something by Buddha as they passed a homeless man and how the young see the truth etc etc bollocks bollocks. There is a pisstake response even now which is “and everyone clapped”.

    It’s a symptom of “main character syndrome” where so many people, thanks to social media, think they are the main character in a book or film and so think everyone wants to know what’s going on in their life and have to burnish it because in reality they are pretty normal and boring.
    I recommend "Crap on Linkedin" and "The State of Linkedin" on Twitter for exposing that type of shite on Linkedin. A few years ago I posted on LinkedIn -

    'Yesterday my four year old told me “Life is a succession of lessons which must be lived to be understood.”. I was surprised and delighted by such wisdom.

    Especially as she's a dog.'


    Now, contrary to the the claims of some on here, I do not I consider myself sort of hero of comedy. I know I'm not. Nevertheless it emerges that LinkedIn is not the place for that sort of light-hearted throwaway piss-take, as the response from other posters and my digital marketing team proved.
    A lot of female friends have left LinkedIn because it’s become a bit of a stalky attempted pick up site where they keep getting random messages from people asking them if they are single, asking them on dates or making advances.
    Wait.

    If you want to pick up women, why not use something that is more... appropriate... for that like Tinder or Plenty of Fish or whatever?
    I believe it’s a favourite for chaps who are in relationships/married as their other half doesn’t see the dating apps and no history on dating sites.
    Just do what I do and wear a Zorro mask on Tinder.

    Works every time.
    Candidly, the main problem with Tinder is that whenever you go out on a date, you're faced with a dilemma:

    Which is more important to you: mocking astrology or getting laid?
    In a situation where you have signed up to Tinder, the answer to that question ought to be pretty obvious.

    On Topic, Rishi's problem is that he is having to do early term unpopular stuff (cut spending, raise taxes) as the countdown clock ticks towards the next election. Even if he were a political genius, that wouldn't be easy.

    And, bless him, he isn't.
    In short - Rishi has been dealt a shit hand. And is shit at playing it.
    The thing is that all he had to do was play it safe. After Boris & Truss, that would have been enough of a change.

    Dull but competent. Steal Starmer's "Mr Steady" costume, but throw in a small tax cut of some sort as a marker for a brighter post-election future.

    It might have been enough. It would at least have limited the size of the coming defeat.
    Fate was cruel to him. All he had to do was be competent. Yet competence was the once thing he lacked.

    Well, competence and common sense.

    Come to think of it, competence, common sense and humility.

    Among the things he lacks are such diverse elements as competence, common sense, humility and the ability to use a contactless card ...
    It may be as simple as he lacks friends. I can't think of a single solid Sunak ally. That'd explain more fully Cameron's return as he's quite good at that.

    Weren't Sunak, Jenrick and Dowden meant to be the Three Musketeers on their way up?

    Though I'm not sure I'd want to rely on them in a crisis.
  • Options



    On Topic, Rishi's problem is that he is having to do early term unpopular stuff (cut spending, raise taxes) as the countdown clock ticks towards the next election. Even if he were a political genius, that wouldn't be easy.

    And, bless him, he isn't.

    In short - Rishi has been dealt a shit hand. And is shit at playing it.
    Let’s not forget that Sunak was Chancellor and so responsible for much of the hand he has been dealt.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,939
    edited February 16
    @MrEd/@TheKitchenCabinet vs The State of New York.

    Place your bets.

  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,116
    Omnium said:

    Chris said:

    AlsoLei said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    boulay said:

    Hilarious article, which isn't open to comments:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/generation-alpha-2024-stormi-webster-harper-beckham-rfl5hd9h6

    "I’m a parent to two — aged six and three. They are already aware of single-use plastics. Data shows that households with 5 to 11-year-olds have more eco-friendly habits. And when my husband’s burgundy passport expired this year, my daughter’s bafflement as we explained the new Brexit blue one suggests the kids might yet take back control."

    I'm a parent to two Gen Alphas as well, aged five and eighteen months. Not once have either ever mentioned single use plastics to me - they have occasionally on litter - and nor have they ever commented on the colour of their passport nor do they even know what Brexit is.

    They are interested, particularly the older one, in playing doctors, Elsa, dolls houses, soft play, watching kids shows on Cbeebies, and Milkshake, and being read a bedtime story. It's a struggle to get them to eat anything at all, although they drink milk like camels and love cheese. And what they mainly want is spending more time playing with mummy and daddy. Just like all kids throughout the ages.

    Why do journalists write this clickbait tripe and who do they expect to belief it?

    They write it because they want their friends and associates to think that the journalist has exceptionally clever and wise children, and guess what, the children are clever and wise because the parents are. That’s the message they are trying to get across.

    There are whole lists on Facebook of twatty parents posting stories about how their four year old quoted something by Buddha as they passed a homeless man and how the young see the truth etc etc bollocks bollocks. There is a pisstake response even now which is “and everyone clapped”.

    It’s a symptom of “main character syndrome” where so many people, thanks to social media, think they are the main character in a book or film and so think everyone wants to know what’s going on in their life and have to burnish it because in reality they are pretty normal and boring.
    I recommend "Crap on Linkedin" and "The State of Linkedin" on Twitter for exposing that type of shite on Linkedin. A few years ago I posted on LinkedIn -

    'Yesterday my four year old told me “Life is a succession of lessons which must be lived to be understood.”. I was surprised and delighted by such wisdom.

    Especially as she's a dog.'


    Now, contrary to the the claims of some on here, I do not I consider myself sort of hero of comedy. I know I'm not. Nevertheless it emerges that LinkedIn is not the place for that sort of light-hearted throwaway piss-take, as the response from other posters and my digital marketing team proved.
    A lot of female friends have left LinkedIn because it’s become a bit of a stalky attempted pick up site where they keep getting random messages from people asking them if they are single, asking them on dates or making advances.
    Wait.

    If you want to pick up women, why not use something that is more... appropriate... for that like Tinder or Plenty of Fish or whatever?
    I believe it’s a favourite for chaps who are in relationships/married as their other half doesn’t see the dating apps and no history on dating sites.
    Just do what I do and wear a Zorro mask on Tinder.

    Works every time.
    Candidly, the main problem with Tinder is that whenever you go out on a date, you're faced with a dilemma:

    Which is more important to you: mocking astrology or getting laid?
    In a situation where you have signed up to Tinder, the answer to that question ought to be pretty obvious.

    On Topic, Rishi's problem is that he is having to do early term unpopular stuff (cut spending, raise taxes) as the countdown clock ticks towards the next election. Even if he were a political genius, that wouldn't be easy.

    And, bless him, he isn't.
    In short - Rishi has been dealt a shit hand. And is shit at playing it.
    The thing is that all he had to do was play it safe. After Boris & Truss, that would have been enough of a change.

    Dull but competent. Steal Starmer's "Mr Steady" costume, but throw in a small tax cut of some sort as a marker for a brighter post-election future.

    It might have been enough. It would at least have limited the size of the coming defeat.
    Fate was cruel to him. All he had to do was be competent. Yet competence was the once thing he lacked.

    Well, competence and common sense.

    Come to think of it, competence, common sense and humility.

    Among the things he lacks are such diverse elements as competence, common sense, humility and the ability to use a contactless card ...
    It may be as simple as he lacks friends. I can't think of a single solid Sunak ally. That'd explain more fully Cameron's return as he's quite good at that.

    Thanks.

    Among the things he lacks are such diverse elements as competence, common sense, humility, the ability to use a contactless card, and friends.

    Also, a sense of the absurd, any clue about how most people live their lives, any inkling that he has any inadequacies ...
  • Options
    Rather baffled by Sunak referring to them as "mid term" by elections. Actually, they are end-of-days last-gasp-of-the-Parliament by elections. The writing is on the wall, the Barbarians are at the gates etc etc etc.
  • Options
    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,770

    Just booked my flights for my holiday

    19 April - Stansted to Santiago de Compostela
    13 May - Biarritz to Stansted

    For a grand total of £71.39

    I have to fly Ryanair, but still.. I think it'll cost me about the same to get to Stansted and back by train

    I'm planning to walk from Santiago to Saint Jean Pied de Port (about 500 miles, I expect) in twenty days, then to get a bus to San Sebastian for a couple of nights and lots of great food, then the last night in Biarritz

    I'm only going to book the first night's stay

    Pilgrims you meet will be asking you why you’re walking the wrong way.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,468
    edited February 16
    Former GA Governor Roy Barnes testified that he turned Fani Willis down when she asked him to serve as Special Prosecutor because he knew he would get death threats from Trump supporters for the rest of his life.
    https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1758529385307488539

    "I lived with bodyguards for four years, and I didn't like it, and I wasn’t going to live with bodyguards for the rest of my life"

    The rule of law is in the balance at the next election.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,939
    Chris said:

    Omnium said:

    Chris said:

    AlsoLei said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    boulay said:

    Hilarious article, which isn't open to comments:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/generation-alpha-2024-stormi-webster-harper-beckham-rfl5hd9h6

    "I’m a parent to two — aged six and three. They are already aware of single-use plastics. Data shows that households with 5 to 11-year-olds have more eco-friendly habits. And when my husband’s burgundy passport expired this year, my daughter’s bafflement as we explained the new Brexit blue one suggests the kids might yet take back control."

    I'm a parent to two Gen Alphas as well, aged five and eighteen months. Not once have either ever mentioned single use plastics to me - they have occasionally on litter - and nor have they ever commented on the colour of their passport nor do they even know what Brexit is.

    They are interested, particularly the older one, in playing doctors, Elsa, dolls houses, soft play, watching kids shows on Cbeebies, and Milkshake, and being read a bedtime story. It's a struggle to get them to eat anything at all, although they drink milk like camels and love cheese. And what they mainly want is spending more time playing with mummy and daddy. Just like all kids throughout the ages.

    Why do journalists write this clickbait tripe and who do they expect to belief it?

    They write it because they want their friends and associates to think that the journalist has exceptionally clever and wise children, and guess what, the children are clever and wise because the parents are. That’s the message they are trying to get across.

    There are whole lists on Facebook of twatty parents posting stories about how their four year old quoted something by Buddha as they passed a homeless man and how the young see the truth etc etc bollocks bollocks. There is a pisstake response even now which is “and everyone clapped”.

    It’s a symptom of “main character syndrome” where so many people, thanks to social media, think they are the main character in a book or film and so think everyone wants to know what’s going on in their life and have to burnish it because in reality they are pretty normal and boring.
    I recommend "Crap on Linkedin" and "The State of Linkedin" on Twitter for exposing that type of shite on Linkedin. A few years ago I posted on LinkedIn -

    'Yesterday my four year old told me “Life is a succession of lessons which must be lived to be understood.”. I was surprised and delighted by such wisdom.

    Especially as she's a dog.'


    Now, contrary to the the claims of some on here, I do not I consider myself sort of hero of comedy. I know I'm not. Nevertheless it emerges that LinkedIn is not the place for that sort of light-hearted throwaway piss-take, as the response from other posters and my digital marketing team proved.
    A lot of female friends have left LinkedIn because it’s become a bit of a stalky attempted pick up site where they keep getting random messages from people asking them if they are single, asking them on dates or making advances.
    Wait.

    If you want to pick up women, why not use something that is more... appropriate... for that like Tinder or Plenty of Fish or whatever?
    I believe it’s a favourite for chaps who are in relationships/married as their other half doesn’t see the dating apps and no history on dating sites.
    Just do what I do and wear a Zorro mask on Tinder.

    Works every time.
    Candidly, the main problem with Tinder is that whenever you go out on a date, you're faced with a dilemma:

    Which is more important to you: mocking astrology or getting laid?
    In a situation where you have signed up to Tinder, the answer to that question ought to be pretty obvious.

    On Topic, Rishi's problem is that he is having to do early term unpopular stuff (cut spending, raise taxes) as the countdown clock ticks towards the next election. Even if he were a political genius, that wouldn't be easy.

    And, bless him, he isn't.
    In short - Rishi has been dealt a shit hand. And is shit at playing it.
    The thing is that all he had to do was play it safe. After Boris & Truss, that would have been enough of a change.

    Dull but competent. Steal Starmer's "Mr Steady" costume, but throw in a small tax cut of some sort as a marker for a brighter post-election future.

    It might have been enough. It would at least have limited the size of the coming defeat.
    Fate was cruel to him. All he had to do was be competent. Yet competence was the once thing he lacked.

    Well, competence and common sense.

    Come to think of it, competence, common sense and humility.

    Among the things he lacks are such diverse elements as competence, common sense, humility and the ability to use a contactless card ...
    It may be as simple as he lacks friends. I can't think of a single solid Sunak ally. That'd explain more fully Cameron's return as he's quite good at that.

    Thanks.

    Among the things he lacks are such diverse elements as competence, common sense, humility, the ability to use a contactless card, and friends.

    Also, a sense of the absurd, any clue about how most people live their lives, any inkling that he has any inadequacies ...
    In all fairness he shares the inability to use contactless with many on PB. He probably owns a weird car that cannot drive at 20mph without exploding, too. The poor lamb is in good company on here.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,468

    Omnium said:

    Chris said:

    AlsoLei said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    boulay said:

    Hilarious article, which isn't open to comments:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/generation-alpha-2024-stormi-webster-harper-beckham-rfl5hd9h6

    "I’m a parent to two — aged six and three. They are already aware of single-use plastics. Data shows that households with 5 to 11-year-olds have more eco-friendly habits. And when my husband’s burgundy passport expired this year, my daughter’s bafflement as we explained the new Brexit blue one suggests the kids might yet take back control."

    I'm a parent to two Gen Alphas as well, aged five and eighteen months. Not once have either ever mentioned single use plastics to me - they have occasionally on litter - and nor have they ever commented on the colour of their passport nor do they even know what Brexit is.

    They are interested, particularly the older one, in playing doctors, Elsa, dolls houses, soft play, watching kids shows on Cbeebies, and Milkshake, and being read a bedtime story. It's a struggle to get them to eat anything at all, although they drink milk like camels and love cheese. And what they mainly want is spending more time playing with mummy and daddy. Just like all kids throughout the ages.

    Why do journalists write this clickbait tripe and who do they expect to belief it?

    They write it because they want their friends and associates to think that the journalist has exceptionally clever and wise children, and guess what, the children are clever and wise because the parents are. That’s the message they are trying to get across.

    There are whole lists on Facebook of twatty parents posting stories about how their four year old quoted something by Buddha as they passed a homeless man and how the young see the truth etc etc bollocks bollocks. There is a pisstake response even now which is “and everyone clapped”.

    It’s a symptom of “main character syndrome” where so many people, thanks to social media, think they are the main character in a book or film and so think everyone wants to know what’s going on in their life and have to burnish it because in reality they are pretty normal and boring.
    I recommend "Crap on Linkedin" and "The State of Linkedin" on Twitter for exposing that type of shite on Linkedin. A few years ago I posted on LinkedIn -

    'Yesterday my four year old told me “Life is a succession of lessons which must be lived to be understood.”. I was surprised and delighted by such wisdom.

    Especially as she's a dog.'


    Now, contrary to the the claims of some on here, I do not I consider myself sort of hero of comedy. I know I'm not. Nevertheless it emerges that LinkedIn is not the place for that sort of light-hearted throwaway piss-take, as the response from other posters and my digital marketing team proved.
    A lot of female friends have left LinkedIn because it’s become a bit of a stalky attempted pick up site where they keep getting random messages from people asking them if they are single, asking them on dates or making advances.
    Wait.

    If you want to pick up women, why not use something that is more... appropriate... for that like Tinder or Plenty of Fish or whatever?
    I believe it’s a favourite for chaps who are in relationships/married as their other half doesn’t see the dating apps and no history on dating sites.
    Just do what I do and wear a Zorro mask on Tinder.

    Works every time.
    Candidly, the main problem with Tinder is that whenever you go out on a date, you're faced with a dilemma:

    Which is more important to you: mocking astrology or getting laid?
    In a situation where you have signed up to Tinder, the answer to that question ought to be pretty obvious.

    On Topic, Rishi's problem is that he is having to do early term unpopular stuff (cut spending, raise taxes) as the countdown clock ticks towards the next election. Even if he were a political genius, that wouldn't be easy.

    And, bless him, he isn't.
    In short - Rishi has been dealt a shit hand. And is shit at playing it.
    The thing is that all he had to do was play it safe. After Boris & Truss, that would have been enough of a change.

    Dull but competent. Steal Starmer's "Mr Steady" costume, but throw in a small tax cut of some sort as a marker for a brighter post-election future.

    It might have been enough. It would at least have limited the size of the coming defeat.
    Fate was cruel to him. All he had to do was be competent. Yet competence was the once thing he lacked.

    Well, competence and common sense.

    Come to think of it, competence, common sense and humility.

    Among the things he lacks are such diverse elements as competence, common sense, humility and the ability to use a contactless card ...
    It may be as simple as he lacks friends. I can't think of a single solid Sunak ally. That'd explain more fully Cameron's return as he's quite good at that.

    Weren't Sunak, Jenrick and Dowden meant to be the Three Musketeers on their way up?

    Though I'm not sure I'd want to rely on them in a crisis.
    "All for one, and nothing for all" ?
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,939
    Biden, yeah a bit old and slightly doddery, in his presentation.

    But, a class act.

    A statesman.

    Re-elect.

  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938

    Chris said:

    I can't help wondering whether Navalny's murder may make even some of Trump's hardcore think again, considering how far Trump's tongue is up Putin's arse?

    But probably I'm just harbouring the last remnants of a completely unjustified faith in human intelligence.

    Nope.

    Tucker Carlson:
    "Tucker Carlson, when asked about Alexei Navalny, opposition leaders and journalists in Russia: “Every leader kills people. Some kill more than others. Leadership requires killing people.”"

    https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1758515284741173538

    This may have been before today's events, but I don't think Carlson or many in the GOP will change their minds.
    Presumably he will utter the same words if Biden bumps off Trump.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554

    Rather baffled by Sunak referring to them as "mid term" by elections. Actually, they are end-of-days last-gasp-of-the-Parliament by elections. The writing is on the wall, the Barbarians are at the gates etc etc etc.

    It’s half term. Maybe he means the Tory vote is all on the (rather bare, especially at low altitude) slopes with the kids. Except hang on, that’s not the Tory vote anymore. That’s just more of the Labour, Lib Dem and SNP (and possibly even Green) vote. It’s not cruise season so the Tory vote is at home and all present and correct.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,614
    I see this morning the Labour candidate for Wellingborough was getting some flack here for breaking off her honeymoon for the selection process. Now if she had returned from the Seychelles or such like I may have had some sympathy for that point of view, but in reality she was having fish and chips on a Suffolk beach when she got the call. Now I am not being disparaging about the Suffolk coast (how could I, I have a holiday home there myself and live even further way than she did?), but really is it so awful she returned. It is only about 100 miles. I mean it is not that dramatic a decision. Some people commute longer distances. She can always do it again and I'm sure her husband is understanding. Give her a break. She has only just been elected.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938

    TOPPING said:

    Just booked my flights for my holiday

    19 April - Stansted to Santiago de Compostela
    13 May - Biarritz to Stansted

    For a grand total of £71.39

    I have to fly Ryanair, but still.. I think it'll cost me about the same to get to Stansted and back by train

    I'm planning to walk from Santiago to Saint Jean Pied de Port (about 500 miles, I expect) in twenty days, then to get a bus to San Sebastian for a couple of nights and lots of great food, then the last night in Biarritz

    I'm only going to book the first night's stay

    What an excellent plan. Well done you. What are you packing.
    I've been thinking about this today..

    A pair of shorts, four t-shirts, sets of underwear and pairs of socks, a pack of hikers' wool (never used it before, but apparently great for blister prevention), my umbrella, Minirig speaker, continental adaptor plug with USB ports, a few leads, two USB battery packs, toiletries and one of those Apple luggage trackers so my Mum will know where I am


    It needs to fit under the seat in front
    Can I highly recommend the (expensive but excellent) Lululemon polo shirts*. They compress in size to almost nothing, they don't crease, they're comfy, and they wick sweat.

    Best of all, they look moderately smart when you're enjoying your evening beer.

    * And if you go on Temu/Aliexpress, you can buy essentially identical knockoffs for about 80% less.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,939
    kjh said:

    I see this morning the Labour candidate for Wellingborough was getting some flack here for breaking off her honeymoon for the selection process. Now if she had returned from the Seychelles or such like I may have had some sympathy for that point of view, but in reality she was having fish and chips on a Suffolk beach when she got the call. Now I am not being disparaging about the Suffolk coast (how could I, I have a holiday home there myself and live even further way than she did?), but really is it so awful she returned. It is only about 100 miles. I mean it is not that dramatic a decision. Some people commute longer distances. She can always do it again and I'm sure her husband is understanding. Give her a break. She has only just been elected.

    Yes some exceptionally sour grapes from a very ungracious bunch of PB Tories this morning.

    My personal favourite was that the Tory candidate “looked much more like an MP”- which was presumably lost on the good people of Wellingborough, who voted against her by a near-record swing.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,161
    pigeon said:

    TimS said:

    Cookie said:

    pigeon said:

    IanB2 said:

    What sane person would vote for another five years of this?

    Everyone who's done well out of this Government and anyone who's afraid of Labour. That, especially in the former category, encompasses a lot of people. And then there are the reflexive habit voters who turn up to put an X by the Tory on polling day and otherwise pay no attention at all to politics. That's also a lot of people.
    I have no enthusiasm for this government.
    Yet there is only one alternative government: Labour. And in almost every respect in which I think the government are wrong, Labour are or have been just as wrong or are wronger. Labour aren't going to invest in infrastructure in the north or grow the economy or control immigration or fight back against the lunatic fringes of woke or make our lives more pleasant in any way. The worst and most inept and most disastrous thing this government has done - lockdown - Labour were urging them to do more and harder.

    So while I've no motivation for more of the current shit, voting Conservative might be the only way to stop what looks to me like an even worse option. That's the only reason I can see the Cons might still get votes.

    Labour might, I suppose, possibly build more houses. That's one respect in which they might be an improvement.

    (For the record, I'm still undecided on who to vote for.)
    They will have a couple of advantages over the incumbents, which are unrelated to ideology:

    1. A fresh incoming ministerial team who’ve had several years to develop ideas and plans, and will attack their briefs with enthusiasm rather than cynicism.
    2. A public mandate and a media (probably) ready to give the benefit of the doubt, which means any sensible plans don’t immediately get scuppered by politics, backbench positioning or opinion polls

    The coalition had the same two benefits in 2010 and it meant they were able to get quite a lot of policies through in the first couple of years, for good or bad.

    Always worth giving the other lot a go once in a while. It’s like a bowling change when you’re struggling for a wicket.
    What ideas and plans? They've thrown away almost everything that involves either raising money or spending it differently already. We're left with dishwatery utterances about often unspecified reform and little else (and there's no reason to suppose that many of the remaining policies won't be dumped the nanosecond they're subjected to Tory attack ads.)

    The Opposition is rapidly evolving into an empty vessel whose sole appeal is not being the other lot, and hence we move on swiftly to the concept of Buggins' Turn that you promote. The Labour-Tory-Labour-Tory cycle, moving steadily further rightwards and deeper into poverty and decrepitude with every passing year, is what's going to land us with Suella Braverman (or worse) when Starmer fails to deliver anything of substance and whatever Conservative voters he's able to appease with a programme of unthreatening continuity get bored of him and go home.
    No politician with any nous who's heading for victory will trouble the electorate with their plans until after the election. It just makes no sense to do that. It's amateur hour.

    SKS does not lack nous. Mrs May did. Hence her unveiling of her (excellent but open to scaremongering) plan to reform social care funding. We saw what happened.

    You must judge Starmer Labour on what they do in office. All these tirades about 'no change' are (as always with you) a good read but that's all they are.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,116
    TimS said:

    Rather baffled by Sunak referring to them as "mid term" by elections. Actually, they are end-of-days last-gasp-of-the-Parliament by elections. The writing is on the wall, the Barbarians are at the gates etc etc etc.

    It’s half term. Maybe he means the Tory vote is all on the (rather bare, especially at low altitude) slopes with the kids. Except hang on, that’s not the Tory vote anymore. That’s just more of the Labour, Lib Dem and SNP (and possibly even Green) vote. It’s not cruise season so the Tory vote is at home and all present and correct.
    Hmm. He meant they were "half-term" elections, but wasn't very familiar with what half-term was called, because he has nannies for that kind of thing?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,468

    kjh said:

    I see this morning the Labour candidate for Wellingborough was getting some flack here for breaking off her honeymoon for the selection process. Now if she had returned from the Seychelles or such like I may have had some sympathy for that point of view, but in reality she was having fish and chips on a Suffolk beach when she got the call. Now I am not being disparaging about the Suffolk coast (how could I, I have a holiday home there myself and live even further way than she did?), but really is it so awful she returned. It is only about 100 miles. I mean it is not that dramatic a decision. Some people commute longer distances. She can always do it again and I'm sure her husband is understanding. Give her a break. She has only just been elected.

    Yes some exceptionally sour grapes from a very ungracious bunch of PB Tories this morning.

    My personal favourite was that the Tory candidate “looked much more like an MP”- which was presumably lost on the good people of Wellingborough, who voted against her by a near-record swing.
    Well she doesn't now.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,939
    kinabalu said:

    pigeon said:

    TimS said:

    Cookie said:

    pigeon said:

    IanB2 said:

    What sane person would vote for another five years of this?

    Everyone who's done well out of this Government and anyone who's afraid of Labour. That, especially in the former category, encompasses a lot of people. And then there are the reflexive habit voters who turn up to put an X by the Tory on polling day and otherwise pay no attention at all to politics. That's also a lot of people.
    I have no enthusiasm for this government.
    Yet there is only one alternative government: Labour. And in almost every respect in which I think the government are wrong, Labour are or have been just as wrong or are wronger. Labour aren't going to invest in infrastructure in the north or grow the economy or control immigration or fight back against the lunatic fringes of woke or make our lives more pleasant in any way. The worst and most inept and most disastrous thing this government has done - lockdown - Labour were urging them to do more and harder.

    So while I've no motivation for more of the current shit, voting Conservative might be the only way to stop what looks to me like an even worse option. That's the only reason I can see the Cons might still get votes.

    Labour might, I suppose, possibly build more houses. That's one respect in which they might be an improvement.

    (For the record, I'm still undecided on who to vote for.)
    They will have a couple of advantages over the incumbents, which are unrelated to ideology:

    1. A fresh incoming ministerial team who’ve had several years to develop ideas and plans, and will attack their briefs with enthusiasm rather than cynicism.
    2. A public mandate and a media (probably) ready to give the benefit of the doubt, which means any sensible plans don’t immediately get scuppered by politics, backbench positioning or opinion polls

    The coalition had the same two benefits in 2010 and it meant they were able to get quite a lot of policies through in the first couple of years, for good or bad.

    Always worth giving the other lot a go once in a while. It’s like a bowling change when you’re struggling for a wicket.
    What ideas and plans? They've thrown away almost everything that involves either raising money or spending it differently already. We're left with dishwatery utterances about often unspecified reform and little else (and there's no reason to suppose that many of the remaining policies won't be dumped the nanosecond they're subjected to Tory attack ads.)

    The Opposition is rapidly evolving into an empty vessel whose sole appeal is not being the other lot, and hence we move on swiftly to the concept of Buggins' Turn that you promote. The Labour-Tory-Labour-Tory cycle, moving steadily further rightwards and deeper into poverty and decrepitude with every passing year, is what's going to land us with Suella Braverman (or worse) when Starmer fails to deliver anything of substance and whatever Conservative voters he's able to appease with a programme of unthreatening continuity get bored of him and go home.
    No politician with any nous who's heading for victory will trouble the electorate with their plans until after the election. It just makes no sense to do that. It's amateur hour.

    SKS does not lack nous. Mrs May did. Hence her unveiling of her (excellent but open to scaremongering) plan to reform social care funding. We saw what happened.

    You must judge Starmer Labour on what they do in office. All these tirades about 'no change' are (as always with you) a good read but that's all they are.
    John Rentoul: No opposition worth its salt gives away its policies before it has to produce a manifesto. Anything useful in there the government will simply steal.

    He’s right.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,116
    To be fair, Sunak's country residence is fairly modest, considering how rich he is:
    image
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952
    Am I the only one for whom half-term began at 3:30 today?
  • Options
    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 212
    I am not buying the methodology here. The byelections have been overwhelmingly in tory leaning constituencies as the tory MPs have been far more naughty than labour MPs. That means your sampling is not representative for generalized inference. What you can draw conclusions about (perhaps) is what the trend is for already blue constituencies... that is a far more terrifying finding for the right, as it implies that the blue seats are slipping more and more to the left. 🤷
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554

    kjh said:

    I see this morning the Labour candidate for Wellingborough was getting some flack here for breaking off her honeymoon for the selection process. Now if she had returned from the Seychelles or such like I may have had some sympathy for that point of view, but in reality she was having fish and chips on a Suffolk beach when she got the call. Now I am not being disparaging about the Suffolk coast (how could I, I have a holiday home there myself and live even further way than she did?), but really is it so awful she returned. It is only about 100 miles. I mean it is not that dramatic a decision. Some people commute longer distances. She can always do it again and I'm sure her husband is understanding. Give her a break. She has only just been elected.

    Yes some exceptionally sour grapes from a very ungracious bunch of PB Tories this morning.

    My personal favourite was that the Tory candidate “looked much more like an MP”- which was presumably lost on the good people of Wellingborough, who voted against her by a near-record swing.
    I missed that. Everything about the story and her interview was vote winning.

    - Sweetly marginal Millennial/GenZ vibe and wide eyed innocence
    - On honeymoon with new husband: aahh, how sweet, we all like young love, makes us all nostalgic, and nostalgia wins votes (which is why “back to square 1” appeals so much)
    - It was in Suffolk, not the Seychelles. In winter. Humble, modest, semi-local. Yet bougie enough what with Suffolk coast being quite hipster these days

    What’s not to like?
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 609
    pigeon said:

    Cookie said:

    pigeon said:

    IanB2 said:

    What sane person would vote for another five years of this?

    Everyone who's done well out of this Government and anyone who's afraid of Labour. That, especially in the former category, encompasses a lot of people. And then there are the reflexive habit voters who turn up to put an X by the Tory on polling day and otherwise pay no attention at all to politics. That's also a lot of people.
    I have no enthusiasm for this government.
    Yet there is only one alternative government: Labour. And in almost every respect in which I think the government are wrong, Labour are or have been just as wrong or are wronger. Labour aren't going to invest in infrastructure in the north or grow the economy or control immigration or fight back against the lunatic fringes of woke or make our lives more pleasant in any way. The worst and most inept and most disastrous thing this government has done - lockdown - Labour were urging them to do more and harder.

    So while I've no motivation for more of the current shit, voting Conservative might be the only way to stop what looks to me like an even worse option. That's the only reason I can see the Cons might still get votes.

    Labour might, I suppose, possibly build more houses. That's one respect in which they might be an improvement.

    (For the record, I'm still undecided on who to vote for.)
    There is no reason at all to believe Labour pledges on housing development. Firstly because there's no reason to believe politicians on almost any subject; secondly because an election performance strong enough to get Starmer into Downing Street will create a fresh cohort of suburbanite Labour MPs who will be every inch as Nimbyish as the Tories they replace; and thirdly because it would infuriate the wealthy grey vote, who are the only people (save for the extremely rich) who MPs actually care about, and who have a vested interest both in frustrating development anywhere near their own homes, and in choking off the supply of property full stop to ensure that their house prices continue to go up.

    There is every indication, stretching back well before the immolation of the green spending pledges to the refusal of Reeves to countenance any measures either to reform the state pension or to shift the burden of taxation from earned incomes to assets, that Labour are just another Conservative Party, almost entirely in hock to Tory voters, Tory interests and Tory ideas. Their offer for the next election will be a commitment to change as little as possible so as not to upset the winners from the existing settlement. A Labour Government is about changing the name plates on office doors and the bums on the seats of ministerial limos and little else.
    Something is going to change by the end of the decade. The only question is what.

    The housing situation is already unsustainable - but, by 2030, the majority of millennials will be less than 20 years from retirement. The time for hoping to buy a home of their own will have passed for many. They'll have pension pots that won't come close to paying for the level of rent they can expect to pay in retirement.

    Meanwhile, the boomer generation will be starting to pass away, and the shape of our population pyramid will ensure that their inherited wealth will be concentrated into ever-fewer hands.

    Society will have bifurcated into those who've been able to get onto the property ladder, and the vast majority of working age who have no hope of ever doing so. Their experiences of life will be wholly different. The divide between the two is growing already and will be unbridgeable by then.

    There'll be no hope, and no reward for ambition. The drag on our country's economy will be humongous.

    What are our options - a massive house-building program? some form of catastrophic crash? mass emigration? riots? lynch mobs?

    In the next few years, the government is going to have to - whether explicitly or implicitly - pick one.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554
    dixiedean said:

    Am I the only one for whom half-term began at 3:30 today?

    Lucky you. Back to the grindstone on Monday for me.

    The French just broke up today so will be flooding the scratchy brown snow-free slopes from Sunday.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    edited February 16
    Icarus said:

    From the Guardian

    "Rishi Sunak has been warned by leading One Nation group Conservatives it would be “politically disastrous” to veer further to the right after two heavy byelection losses to Labour.

    They are right to warn him as Sunak's political instinct is non-existent, he's likely to draw the wrong conclusion from a byelection unless someone holds his hand.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 609
    Chris said:

    Omnium said:

    Chris said:

    AlsoLei said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    boulay said:

    Hilarious article, which isn't open to comments:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/generation-alpha-2024-stormi-webster-harper-beckham-rfl5hd9h6

    "I’m a parent to two — aged six and three. They are already aware of single-use plastics. Data shows that households with 5 to 11-year-olds have more eco-friendly habits. And when my husband’s burgundy passport expired this year, my daughter’s bafflement as we explained the new Brexit blue one suggests the kids might yet take back control."

    I'm a parent to two Gen Alphas as well, aged five and eighteen months. Not once have either ever mentioned single use plastics to me - they have occasionally on litter - and nor have they ever commented on the colour of their passport nor do they even know what Brexit is.

    They are interested, particularly the older one, in playing doctors, Elsa, dolls houses, soft play, watching kids shows on Cbeebies, and Milkshake, and being read a bedtime story. It's a struggle to get them to eat anything at all, although they drink milk like camels and love cheese. And what they mainly want is spending more time playing with mummy and daddy. Just like all kids throughout the ages.

    Why do journalists write this clickbait tripe and who do they expect to belief it?

    They write it because they want their friends and associates to think that the journalist has exceptionally clever and wise children, and guess what, the children are clever and wise because the parents are. That’s the message they are trying to get across.

    There are whole lists on Facebook of twatty parents posting stories about how their four year old quoted something by Buddha as they passed a homeless man and how the young see the truth etc etc bollocks bollocks. There is a pisstake response even now which is “and everyone clapped”.

    It’s a symptom of “main character syndrome” where so many people, thanks to social media, think they are the main character in a book or film and so think everyone wants to know what’s going on in their life and have to burnish it because in reality they are pretty normal and boring.
    I recommend "Crap on Linkedin" and "The State of Linkedin" on Twitter for exposing that type of shite on Linkedin. A few years ago I posted on LinkedIn -

    'Yesterday my four year old told me “Life is a succession of lessons which must be lived to be understood.”. I was surprised and delighted by such wisdom.

    Especially as she's a dog.'


    Now, contrary to the the claims of some on here, I do not I consider myself sort of hero of comedy. I know I'm not. Nevertheless it emerges that LinkedIn is not the place for that sort of light-hearted throwaway piss-take, as the response from other posters and my digital marketing team proved.
    A lot of female friends have left LinkedIn because it’s become a bit of a stalky attempted pick up site where they keep getting random messages from people asking them if they are single, asking them on dates or making advances.
    Wait.

    If you want to pick up women, why not use something that is more... appropriate... for that like Tinder or Plenty of Fish or whatever?
    I believe it’s a favourite for chaps who are in relationships/married as their other half doesn’t see the dating apps and no history on dating sites.
    Just do what I do and wear a Zorro mask on Tinder.

    Works every time.
    Candidly, the main problem with Tinder is that whenever you go out on a date, you're faced with a dilemma:

    Which is more important to you: mocking astrology or getting laid?
    In a situation where you have signed up to Tinder, the answer to that question ought to be pretty obvious.

    On Topic, Rishi's problem is that he is having to do early term unpopular stuff (cut spending, raise taxes) as the countdown clock ticks towards the next election. Even if he were a political genius, that wouldn't be easy.

    And, bless him, he isn't.
    In short - Rishi has been dealt a shit hand. And is shit at playing it.
    The thing is that all he had to do was play it safe. After Boris & Truss, that would have been enough of a change.

    Dull but competent. Steal Starmer's "Mr Steady" costume, but throw in a small tax cut of some sort as a marker for a brighter post-election future.

    It might have been enough. It would at least have limited the size of the coming defeat.
    Fate was cruel to him. All he had to do was be competent. Yet competence was the once thing he lacked.

    Well, competence and common sense.

    Come to think of it, competence, common sense and humility.

    Among the things he lacks are such diverse elements as competence, common sense, humility and the ability to use a contactless card ...
    It may be as simple as he lacks friends. I can't think of a single solid Sunak ally. That'd explain more fully Cameron's return as he's quite good at that.

    Thanks.

    Among the things he lacks are such diverse elements as competence, common sense, humility, the ability to use a contactless card, and friends.

    Also, a sense of the absurd, any clue about how most people live their lives, any inkling that he has any inadequacies ...
    It's that last one that's the killer.

    He gives the impression of someone who hasn't ever experienced failure before. And, who knows, maybe he hasn't.

    It's what's driving his tetchiness, I'm nearly sure of it. The kindest thing anyone could do for him would be to buy him a shock collar, hook it up to his phone, and get Google or Siri to zap him every time he says "well, actually..."
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,797
    edited February 16

    If Sunak thinks this is midterm then it is a tacit admission from him that we're having a 2025 general election.

    Would be nice to get on with the general election this Spring (call it late next month and hold it on 2nd May) and get it out of the way.

    People clearly want to change the government and Sunak/Tories are just an embarrassment, so lets get it out of the way.

    Of course, Sunak will hang on until November/December 2024 or January 2025 in the hope that something, anything will turn up... because that's what politicians do when they're staring defeat in the face.

    So we've got several more months of the farce to go.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,939
    TimS said:

    kjh said:

    I see this morning the Labour candidate for Wellingborough was getting some flack here for breaking off her honeymoon for the selection process. Now if she had returned from the Seychelles or such like I may have had some sympathy for that point of view, but in reality she was having fish and chips on a Suffolk beach when she got the call. Now I am not being disparaging about the Suffolk coast (how could I, I have a holiday home there myself and live even further way than she did?), but really is it so awful she returned. It is only about 100 miles. I mean it is not that dramatic a decision. Some people commute longer distances. She can always do it again and I'm sure her husband is understanding. Give her a break. She has only just been elected.

    Yes some exceptionally sour grapes from a very ungracious bunch of PB Tories this morning.

    My personal favourite was that the Tory candidate “looked much more like an MP”- which was presumably lost on the good people of Wellingborough, who voted against her by a near-record swing.
    I missed that. Everything about the story and her interview was vote winning.

    - Sweetly marginal Millennial/GenZ vibe and wide eyed innocence
    - On honeymoon with new husband: aahh, how sweet, we all like young love, makes us all nostalgic, and nostalgia wins votes (which is why “back to square 1” appeals so much)
    - It was in Suffolk, not the Seychelles. In winter. Humble, modest, semi-local. Yet bougie enough what with Suffolk coast being quite hipster these days

    What’s not to like?
    Indeed, she looks every inch the model of Labourite perfection. Young, smart, everywoman. No wonder the PB Tories are mean about her!
  • Options
    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 212
    I am very surprised at the lack of objectivity among right leaning PBers. Confirmation bias as far as the eye reaches. Word of advice if you want to keep your money: don't bet your convictions, follow the data.....
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,947
    GIN1138 said:

    If Sunak thinks this is midterm then it is a tacit admission from him that we're having a 2025 general election.

    Would be nice to get on with the general election this Spring (call it late next month and hold it on 2nd May) and get it out of the way.

    People clearly want to change the government and Sunak/Tories are just an embarrassment, so lets get it out of the way.

    Of course, Sunak will hang on until November/December 2024 or January 2025 in the hope that something, anything will turn up... because that's what politicians do when they're staring defeat in the face.

    So we've got several more months of the farce to go.
    Sadly true - even though every extra week in power will cost the Tory party another seat or 2 when the election is finally called..
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,253
    Chris said:

    To be fair, Sunak's country residence is fairly modest, considering how rich he is:
    image

    Is that a home, or a school? Or a upmarket care home?
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,939
    GIN1138 said:

    TimS said:

    kjh said:

    I see this morning the Labour candidate for Wellingborough was getting some flack here for breaking off her honeymoon for the selection process. Now if she had returned from the Seychelles or such like I may have had some sympathy for that point of view, but in reality she was having fish and chips on a Suffolk beach when she got the call. Now I am not being disparaging about the Suffolk coast (how could I, I have a holiday home there myself and live even further way than she did?), but really is it so awful she returned. It is only about 100 miles. I mean it is not that dramatic a decision. Some people commute longer distances. She can always do it again and I'm sure her husband is understanding. Give her a break. She has only just been elected.

    Yes some exceptionally sour grapes from a very ungracious bunch of PB Tories this morning.

    My personal favourite was that the Tory candidate “looked much more like an MP”- which was presumably lost on the good people of Wellingborough, who voted against her by a near-record swing.
    I missed that. Everything about the story and her interview was vote winning.

    - Sweetly marginal Millennial/GenZ vibe and wide eyed innocence
    - On honeymoon with new husband: aahh, how sweet, we all like young love, makes us all nostalgic, and nostalgia wins votes (which is why “back to square 1” appeals so much)
    - It was in Suffolk, not the Seychelles. In winter. Humble, modest, semi-local. Yet bougie enough what with Suffolk coast being quite hipster these days

    What’s not to like?
    Indeed, she looks every inch the model of Labourite perfection. Young, smart, everywoman. No wonder the PB Tories are mean about her!
    Not this PB Tory. I thought she came across excellently and what a breath of fresh air to bullying, sleazy Peter Bone.

    A new start for Wellingborough and not before time.
    I always thought you were a PB Floater Gin?? Had you down as Labour next time!!
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952
    GIN1138 said:

    TimS said:

    kjh said:

    I see this morning the Labour candidate for Wellingborough was getting some flack here for breaking off her honeymoon for the selection process. Now if she had returned from the Seychelles or such like I may have had some sympathy for that point of view, but in reality she was having fish and chips on a Suffolk beach when she got the call. Now I am not being disparaging about the Suffolk coast (how could I, I have a holiday home there myself and live even further way than she did?), but really is it so awful she returned. It is only about 100 miles. I mean it is not that dramatic a decision. Some people commute longer distances. She can always do it again and I'm sure her husband is understanding. Give her a break. She has only just been elected.

    Yes some exceptionally sour grapes from a very ungracious bunch of PB Tories this morning.

    My personal favourite was that the Tory candidate “looked much more like an MP”- which was presumably lost on the good people of Wellingborough, who voted against her by a near-record swing.
    I missed that. Everything about the story and her interview was vote winning.

    - Sweetly marginal Millennial/GenZ vibe and wide eyed innocence
    - On honeymoon with new husband: aahh, how sweet, we all like young love, makes us all nostalgic, and nostalgia wins votes (which is why “back to square 1” appeals so much)
    - It was in Suffolk, not the Seychelles. In winter. Humble, modest, semi-local. Yet bougie enough what with Suffolk coast being quite hipster these days

    What’s not to like?
    Indeed, she looks every inch the model of Labourite perfection. Young, smart, everywoman. No wonder the PB Tories are mean about her!
    Not this PB Tory. I thought she came across excellently and what a breath of fresh air to bullying, sleazy Peter Bone.

    A new start for Wellingborough and not before time.
    Tbf, the local Tory Councillor on the Today programme was super complimentary about her unprompted this morning.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,797

    GIN1138 said:

    TimS said:

    kjh said:

    I see this morning the Labour candidate for Wellingborough was getting some flack here for breaking off her honeymoon for the selection process. Now if she had returned from the Seychelles or such like I may have had some sympathy for that point of view, but in reality she was having fish and chips on a Suffolk beach when she got the call. Now I am not being disparaging about the Suffolk coast (how could I, I have a holiday home there myself and live even further way than she did?), but really is it so awful she returned. It is only about 100 miles. I mean it is not that dramatic a decision. Some people commute longer distances. She can always do it again and I'm sure her husband is understanding. Give her a break. She has only just been elected.

    Yes some exceptionally sour grapes from a very ungracious bunch of PB Tories this morning.

    My personal favourite was that the Tory candidate “looked much more like an MP”- which was presumably lost on the good people of Wellingborough, who voted against her by a near-record swing.
    I missed that. Everything about the story and her interview was vote winning.

    - Sweetly marginal Millennial/GenZ vibe and wide eyed innocence
    - On honeymoon with new husband: aahh, how sweet, we all like young love, makes us all nostalgic, and nostalgia wins votes (which is why “back to square 1” appeals so much)
    - It was in Suffolk, not the Seychelles. In winter. Humble, modest, semi-local. Yet bougie enough what with Suffolk coast being quite hipster these days

    What’s not to like?
    Indeed, she looks every inch the model of Labourite perfection. Young, smart, everywoman. No wonder the PB Tories are mean about her!
    Not this PB Tory. I thought she came across excellently and what a breath of fresh air to bullying, sleazy Peter Bone.

    A new start for Wellingborough and not before time.
    I always thought you were a PB Floater Gin?? Had you down as Labour next time!!
    Yeah, I am, but I've historically been put into the PB Tory column :D
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952
    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    To be fair, Sunak's country residence is fairly modest, considering how rich he is:
    image

    Is that a home, or a school? Or a upmarket care home?
    Obviously not a school.
    It's in a good state of repair.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,357
    Icarus said:

    From the Guardian

    "Rishi Sunak has been warned by leading One Nation group Conservatives it would be “politically disastrous” to veer further to the right after two heavy byelection losses to Labour.

    The prime minister faces a dilemma over his future strategy as the byelection defeats in Kingswood and Wellingborough showed his party lost votes to a victorious Labour on the left and insurgent Reform UK on the right.

    After the results he faced calls from Jacob Rees-Mogg and the New Conservatives’ Danny Kruger and Miriam Cates to “reunite the right” and win back Reform voters, as well as those who stayed at home, to “the Tory family”. Cates and Kruger called for tax cuts, more curbs on immigration and welfare and a willingness to withdraw from the European convention on human rights, as the Reform party took 10-13% of the vote in the two seats.
    But Damian Green, the leader of the One Nation caucus of more than 100 Conservative MPs, said it was wrong to believe the Reform and Tory vote could be added together, and called for the party to unite around current policies.

    “If we attempt to become the Reform party, we will get the Reform party’s level of support,” he told the Guardian. “It seems politically disastrous to me."


    As we used to say in the playground -Fight, Fight!!

    The 'more than 100' number for this bunch of Lib Dems in blue rosettes is always bandied about but nobody has actually confirmed the number.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 609
    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If Sunak thinks this is midterm then it is a tacit admission from him that we're having a 2025 general election.

    Would be nice to get on with the general election this Spring (call it late next month and hold it on 2nd May) and get it out of the way.

    People clearly want to change the government and Sunak/Tories are just an embarrassment, so lets get it out of the way.

    Of course, Sunak will hang on until November/December 2024 or January 2025 in the hope that something, anything will turn up... because that's what politicians do when they're staring defeat in the face.

    So we've got several more months of the farce to go.
    Sadly true - even though every extra week in power will cost the Tory party another seat or 2 when the election is finally called..
    If they do drag it out to the last possible minute, I wonder how close we'll come to a Tory / Refuk crossover in the polls?

    (And at what level would Refuk start to win seats? I know they're extremely unlikely to at the 10%-ish level they're currently polling at, but what about at 15%? Or even 20%?)
  • Options
    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,137
    edited February 16
    AlsoLei said:

    eek said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If Sunak thinks this is midterm then it is a tacit admission from him that we're having a 2025 general election.

    Would be nice to get on with the general election this Spring (call it late next month and hold it on 2nd May) and get it out of the way.

    People clearly want to change the government and Sunak/Tories are just an embarrassment, so lets get it out of the way.

    Of course, Sunak will hang on until November/December 2024 or January 2025 in the hope that something, anything will turn up... because that's what politicians do when they're staring defeat in the face.

    So we've got several more months of the farce to go.
    Sadly true - even though every extra week in power will cost the Tory party another seat or 2 when the election is finally called..
    If they do drag it out to the last possible minute, I wonder how close we'll come to a Tory / Refuk crossover in the polls?

    (And at what level would Refuk start to win seats? I know they're extremely unlikely to at the 10%-ish level they're currently polling at, but what about at 15%? Or even 20%?)
    As with the LDs and the Greens, the answer is still "zero" unless there are some local circumstances that concentrate the vote somewhere, because you need 30%+ to get over the line in any particular seat, even when it is enormously favourably split.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 609

    Icarus said:

    From the Guardian

    "Rishi Sunak has been warned by leading One Nation group Conservatives it would be “politically disastrous” to veer further to the right after two heavy byelection losses to Labour.

    The prime minister faces a dilemma over his future strategy as the byelection defeats in Kingswood and Wellingborough showed his party lost votes to a victorious Labour on the left and insurgent Reform UK on the right.

    After the results he faced calls from Jacob Rees-Mogg and the New Conservatives’ Danny Kruger and Miriam Cates to “reunite the right” and win back Reform voters, as well as those who stayed at home, to “the Tory family”. Cates and Kruger called for tax cuts, more curbs on immigration and welfare and a willingness to withdraw from the European convention on human rights, as the Reform party took 10-13% of the vote in the two seats.
    But Damian Green, the leader of the One Nation caucus of more than 100 Conservative MPs, said it was wrong to believe the Reform and Tory vote could be added together, and called for the party to unite around current policies.

    “If we attempt to become the Reform party, we will get the Reform party’s level of support,” he told the Guardian. “It seems politically disastrous to me."


    As we used to say in the playground -Fight, Fight!!

    The 'more than 100' number for this bunch of Lib Dems in blue rosettes is always bandied about but nobody has actually confirmed the number.
    Yeah. And even if they do have a hundred sympathisers, how many would actually be prepared to stick their necks out if it came to it?

    No more than 20, I'd bet.

    So the same number of effective combatants as most of the other factions. At most. They're not some sort of silent moral majority - if they were, they'd have put their collective foot down long ago.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,937
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just booked my flights for my holiday

    19 April - Stansted to Santiago de Compostela
    13 May - Biarritz to Stansted

    For a grand total of £71.39

    I have to fly Ryanair, but still.. I think it'll cost me about the same to get to Stansted and back by train

    I'm planning to walk from Santiago to Saint Jean Pied de Port (about 500 miles, I expect) in twenty days, then to get a bus to San Sebastian for a couple of nights and lots of great food, then the last night in Biarritz

    I'm only going to book the first night's stay

    What an excellent plan. Well done you. What are you packing.
    I've been thinking about this today..

    A pair of shorts, four t-shirts, sets of underwear and pairs of socks, a pack of hikers' wool (never used it before, but apparently great for blister prevention), my umbrella, Minirig speaker, continental adaptor plug with USB ports, a few leads, two USB battery packs, toiletries and one of those Apple luggage trackers so my Mum will know where I am

    It needs to fit under the seat in front
    nice
    If you're worried about blisters, those blister plasters are very effective.
    Saved me from abandoning a long hike.
    And take up no space on your bag.
    Compeed plasters?

    They're ace. I rarely got blisters when hiking (and never when running), but on the rare occasion I did, Compeeds made the difference between being able to walk comfortably the next day, and agony.

    One hint though: don't use them with expensive socks as inners. After a while, the edges of the Compeed can turn up and stick to the sock; this leaves the glue on the sock that I can never get it out again. Easily cured by using a thin pair of socks (or specialist liner socks).
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,939
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TimS said:

    kjh said:

    I see this morning the Labour candidate for Wellingborough was getting some flack here for breaking off her honeymoon for the selection process. Now if she had returned from the Seychelles or such like I may have had some sympathy for that point of view, but in reality she was having fish and chips on a Suffolk beach when she got the call. Now I am not being disparaging about the Suffolk coast (how could I, I have a holiday home there myself and live even further way than she did?), but really is it so awful she returned. It is only about 100 miles. I mean it is not that dramatic a decision. Some people commute longer distances. She can always do it again and I'm sure her husband is understanding. Give her a break. She has only just been elected.

    Yes some exceptionally sour grapes from a very ungracious bunch of PB Tories this morning.

    My personal favourite was that the Tory candidate “looked much more like an MP”- which was presumably lost on the good people of Wellingborough, who voted against her by a near-record swing.
    I missed that. Everything about the story and her interview was vote winning.

    - Sweetly marginal Millennial/GenZ vibe and wide eyed innocence
    - On honeymoon with new husband: aahh, how sweet, we all like young love, makes us all nostalgic, and nostalgia wins votes (which is why “back to square 1” appeals so much)
    - It was in Suffolk, not the Seychelles. In winter. Humble, modest, semi-local. Yet bougie enough what with Suffolk coast being quite hipster these days

    What’s not to like?
    Indeed, she looks every inch the model of Labourite perfection. Young, smart, everywoman. No wonder the PB Tories are mean about her!
    Not this PB Tory. I thought she came across excellently and what a breath of fresh air to bullying, sleazy Peter Bone.

    A new start for Wellingborough and not before time.
    I always thought you were a PB Floater Gin?? Had you down as Labour next time!!
    Yeah, I am, but I've historically been put into the PB Tory column :D
    :) in fairness you weren’t the only one to have been miscast in that way!
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,911
    The only interesting thing from the Labour gains in these by elections is to set them against their by election gains just before the last time they took over from the Tories

    Blair’s party were adding 5000 votes to 92 results in their wins whilst yesterday they added 100 in one and lost 5000 in the other.

    Turnouts were 37% compared to 62% in SE Staffs 1996 then 71% in Wirral South 1997

    I think that means a likely low turnout in the next GE and room for a surprise 3rd party surge in votes if not seats

  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 609

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just booked my flights for my holiday

    19 April - Stansted to Santiago de Compostela
    13 May - Biarritz to Stansted

    For a grand total of £71.39

    I have to fly Ryanair, but still.. I think it'll cost me about the same to get to Stansted and back by train

    I'm planning to walk from Santiago to Saint Jean Pied de Port (about 500 miles, I expect) in twenty days, then to get a bus to San Sebastian for a couple of nights and lots of great food, then the last night in Biarritz

    I'm only going to book the first night's stay

    What an excellent plan. Well done you. What are you packing.
    I've been thinking about this today..

    A pair of shorts, four t-shirts, sets of underwear and pairs of socks, a pack of hikers' wool (never used it before, but apparently great for blister prevention), my umbrella, Minirig speaker, continental adaptor plug with USB ports, a few leads, two USB battery packs, toiletries and one of those Apple luggage trackers so my Mum will know where I am

    It needs to fit under the seat in front
    nice
    If you're worried about blisters, those blister plasters are very effective.
    Saved me from abandoning a long hike.
    And take up no space on your bag.
    Compeed plasters?

    They're ace. I rarely got blisters when hiking (and never when running), but on the rare occasion I did, Compeeds made the difference between being able to walk comfortably the next day, and agony.

    One hint though: don't use them with expensive socks as inners. After a while, the edges of the Compeed can turn up and stick to the sock; this leaves the glue on the sock that I can never get it out again. Easily cured by using a thin pair of socks (or specialist liner socks).
    They do rather rely on you recognising the warning signs and using them before the blister properly develops, though.

    Otherwise, it's merely the difference between being able to limp ouchily, and agony.

    (I realise that both you and Blanche cover serious distances, so I'm probably outing myself as a complete wuss here. But that's okay, considering that I actually am a complete wuss...)

    Hiker's wool is good, too - similar to a compeed, use it at the first sign of any rubbing. Stick a thin layer under the affected area, and it'll turn into a felt-like mat that sticks to your sock as you walk. It's pretty effective, but you have to pick it out of the sock by hand before washing them, otherwise you get bits of fluff over everything else in that wash.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    Chris said:

    Omnium said:

    Chris said:

    AlsoLei said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    boulay said:

    Hilarious article, which isn't open to comments:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/generation-alpha-2024-stormi-webster-harper-beckham-rfl5hd9h6

    "I’m a parent to two — aged six and three. They are already aware of single-use plastics. Data shows that households with 5 to 11-year-olds have more eco-friendly habits. And when my husband’s burgundy passport expired this year, my daughter’s bafflement as we explained the new Brexit blue one suggests the kids might yet take back control."

    I'm a parent to two Gen Alphas as well, aged five and eighteen months. Not once have either ever mentioned single use plastics to me - they have occasionally on litter - and nor have they ever commented on the colour of their passport nor do they even know what Brexit is.

    They are interested, particularly the older one, in playing doctors, Elsa, dolls houses, soft play, watching kids shows on Cbeebies, and Milkshake, and being read a bedtime story. It's a struggle to get them to eat anything at all, although they drink milk like camels and love cheese. And what they mainly want is spending more time playing with mummy and daddy. Just like all kids throughout the ages.

    Why do journalists write this clickbait tripe and who do they expect to belief it?

    They write it because they want their friends and associates to think that the journalist has exceptionally clever and wise children, and guess what, the children are clever and wise because the parents are. That’s the message they are trying to get across.

    There are whole lists on Facebook of twatty parents posting stories about how their four year old quoted something by Buddha as they passed a homeless man and how the young see the truth etc etc bollocks bollocks. There is a pisstake response even now which is “and everyone clapped”.

    It’s a symptom of “main character syndrome” where so many people, thanks to social media, think they are the main character in a book or film and so think everyone wants to know what’s going on in their life and have to burnish it because in reality they are pretty normal and boring.
    I recommend "Crap on Linkedin" and "The State of Linkedin" on Twitter for exposing that type of shite on Linkedin. A few years ago I posted on LinkedIn -

    'Yesterday my four year old told me “Life is a succession of lessons which must be lived to be understood.”. I was surprised and delighted by such wisdom.

    Especially as she's a dog.'


    Now, contrary to the the claims of some on here, I do not I consider myself sort of hero of comedy. I know I'm not. Nevertheless it emerges that LinkedIn is not the place for that sort of light-hearted throwaway piss-take, as the response from other posters and my digital marketing team proved.
    A lot of female friends have left LinkedIn because it’s become a bit of a stalky attempted pick up site where they keep getting random messages from people asking them if they are single, asking them on dates or making advances.
    Wait.

    If you want to pick up women, why not use something that is more... appropriate... for that like Tinder or Plenty of Fish or whatever?
    I believe it’s a favourite for chaps who are in relationships/married as their other half doesn’t see the dating apps and no history on dating sites.
    Just do what I do and wear a Zorro mask on Tinder.

    Works every time.
    Candidly, the main problem with Tinder is that whenever you go out on a date, you're faced with a dilemma:

    Which is more important to you: mocking astrology or getting laid?
    In a situation where you have signed up to Tinder, the answer to that question ought to be pretty obvious.

    On Topic, Rishi's problem is that he is having to do early term unpopular stuff (cut spending, raise taxes) as the countdown clock ticks towards the next election. Even if he were a political genius, that wouldn't be easy.

    And, bless him, he isn't.
    In short - Rishi has been dealt a shit hand. And is shit at playing it.
    The thing is that all he had to do was play it safe. After Boris & Truss, that would have been enough of a change.

    Dull but competent. Steal Starmer's "Mr Steady" costume, but throw in a small tax cut of some sort as a marker for a brighter post-election future.

    It might have been enough. It would at least have limited the size of the coming defeat.
    Fate was cruel to him. All he had to do was be competent. Yet competence was the once thing he lacked.

    Well, competence and common sense.

    Come to think of it, competence, common sense and humility.

    Among the things he lacks are such diverse elements as competence, common sense, humility and the ability to use a contactless card ...
    It may be as simple as he lacks friends. I can't think of a single solid Sunak ally. That'd explain more fully Cameron's return as he's quite good at that.

    Thanks.

    Among the things he lacks are such diverse elements as competence, common sense, humility, the ability to use a contactless card, and friends.

    Also, a sense of the absurd, any clue about how most people live their lives, any inkling that he has any inadequacies ...
    Blimey, I didn't expect the Spanish Inquisition.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    dixiedean said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    To be fair, Sunak's country residence is fairly modest, considering how rich he is:
    image

    Is that a home, or a school? Or a upmarket care home?
    Obviously not a school.
    It's in a good state of repair.
    RAAC and ruin in our schools right now.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,767
    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    Omnium said:

    Chris said:

    AlsoLei said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    boulay said:

    Hilarious article, which isn't open to comments:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/generation-alpha-2024-stormi-webster-harper-beckham-rfl5hd9h6

    "I’m a parent to two — aged six and three. They are already aware of single-use plastics. Data shows that households with 5 to 11-year-olds have more eco-friendly habits. And when my husband’s burgundy passport expired this year, my daughter’s bafflement as we explained the new Brexit blue one suggests the kids might yet take back control."

    I'm a parent to two Gen Alphas as well, aged five and eighteen months. Not once have either ever mentioned single use plastics to me - they have occasionally on litter - and nor have they ever commented on the colour of their passport nor do they even know what Brexit is.

    They are interested, particularly the older one, in playing doctors, Elsa, dolls houses, soft play, watching kids shows on Cbeebies, and Milkshake, and being read a bedtime story. It's a struggle to get them to eat anything at all, although they drink milk like camels and love cheese. And what they mainly want is spending more time playing with mummy and daddy. Just like all kids throughout the ages.

    Why do journalists write this clickbait tripe and who do they expect to belief it?

    They write it because they want their friends and associates to think that the journalist has exceptionally clever and wise children, and guess what, the children are clever and wise because the parents are. That’s the message they are trying to get across.

    There are whole lists on Facebook of twatty parents posting stories about how their four year old quoted something by Buddha as they passed a homeless man and how the young see the truth etc etc bollocks bollocks. There is a pisstake response even now which is “and everyone clapped”.

    It’s a symptom of “main character syndrome” where so many people, thanks to social media, think they are the main character in a book or film and so think everyone wants to know what’s going on in their life and have to burnish it because in reality they are pretty normal and boring.
    I recommend "Crap on Linkedin" and "The State of Linkedin" on Twitter for exposing that type of shite on Linkedin. A few years ago I posted on LinkedIn -

    'Yesterday my four year old told me “Life is a succession of lessons which must be lived to be understood.”. I was surprised and delighted by such wisdom.

    Especially as she's a dog.'


    Now, contrary to the the claims of some on here, I do not I consider myself sort of hero of comedy. I know I'm not. Nevertheless it emerges that LinkedIn is not the place for that sort of light-hearted throwaway piss-take, as the response from other posters and my digital marketing team proved.
    A lot of female friends have left LinkedIn because it’s become a bit of a stalky attempted pick up site where they keep getting random messages from people asking them if they are single, asking them on dates or making advances.
    Wait.

    If you want to pick up women, why not use something that is more... appropriate... for that like Tinder or Plenty of Fish or whatever?
    I believe it’s a favourite for chaps who are in relationships/married as their other half doesn’t see the dating apps and no history on dating sites.
    Just do what I do and wear a Zorro mask on Tinder.

    Works every time.
    Candidly, the main problem with Tinder is that whenever you go out on a date, you're faced with a dilemma:

    Which is more important to you: mocking astrology or getting laid?
    In a situation where you have signed up to Tinder, the answer to that question ought to be pretty obvious.

    On Topic, Rishi's problem is that he is having to do early term unpopular stuff (cut spending, raise taxes) as the countdown clock ticks towards the next election. Even if he were a political genius, that wouldn't be easy.

    And, bless him, he isn't.
    In short - Rishi has been dealt a shit hand. And is shit at playing it.
    The thing is that all he had to do was play it safe. After Boris & Truss, that would have been enough of a change.

    Dull but competent. Steal Starmer's "Mr Steady" costume, but throw in a small tax cut of some sort as a marker for a brighter post-election future.

    It might have been enough. It would at least have limited the size of the coming defeat.
    Fate was cruel to him. All he had to do was be competent. Yet competence was the once thing he lacked.

    Well, competence and common sense.

    Come to think of it, competence, common sense and humility.

    Among the things he lacks are such diverse elements as competence, common sense, humility and the ability to use a contactless card ...
    It may be as simple as he lacks friends. I can't think of a single solid Sunak ally. That'd explain more fully Cameron's return as he's quite good at that.

    Thanks.

    Among the things he lacks are such diverse elements as competence, common sense, humility, the ability to use a contactless card, and friends.

    Also, a sense of the absurd, any clue about how most people live their lives, any inkling that he has any inadequacies ...
    Blimey, I didn't expect the Spanish Inquisition.
    They've had an unexpectedly hard time in recent years.
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    Omnium said:

    Chris said:

    AlsoLei said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    rcs1000 said:

    boulay said:

    DougSeal said:

    boulay said:

    Hilarious article, which isn't open to comments:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/generation-alpha-2024-stormi-webster-harper-beckham-rfl5hd9h6

    "I’m a parent to two — aged six and three. They are already aware of single-use plastics. Data shows that households with 5 to 11-year-olds have more eco-friendly habits. And when my husband’s burgundy passport expired this year, my daughter’s bafflement as we explained the new Brexit blue one suggests the kids might yet take back control."

    I'm a parent to two Gen Alphas as well, aged five and eighteen months. Not once have either ever mentioned single use plastics to me - they have occasionally on litter - and nor have they ever commented on the colour of their passport nor do they even know what Brexit is.

    They are interested, particularly the older one, in playing doctors, Elsa, dolls houses, soft play, watching kids shows on Cbeebies, and Milkshake, and being read a bedtime story. It's a struggle to get them to eat anything at all, although they drink milk like camels and love cheese. And what they mainly want is spending more time playing with mummy and daddy. Just like all kids throughout the ages.

    Why do journalists write this clickbait tripe and who do they expect to belief it?

    They write it because they want their friends and associates to think that the journalist has exceptionally clever and wise children, and guess what, the children are clever and wise because the parents are. That’s the message they are trying to get across.

    There are whole lists on Facebook of twatty parents posting stories about how their four year old quoted something by Buddha as they passed a homeless man and how the young see the truth etc etc bollocks bollocks. There is a pisstake response even now which is “and everyone clapped”.

    It’s a symptom of “main character syndrome” where so many people, thanks to social media, think they are the main character in a book or film and so think everyone wants to know what’s going on in their life and have to burnish it because in reality they are pretty normal and boring.
    I recommend "Crap on Linkedin" and "The State of Linkedin" on Twitter for exposing that type of shite on Linkedin. A few years ago I posted on LinkedIn -

    'Yesterday my four year old told me “Life is a succession of lessons which must be lived to be understood.”. I was surprised and delighted by such wisdom.

    Especially as she's a dog.'


    Now, contrary to the the claims of some on here, I do not I consider myself sort of hero of comedy. I know I'm not. Nevertheless it emerges that LinkedIn is not the place for that sort of light-hearted throwaway piss-take, as the response from other posters and my digital marketing team proved.
    A lot of female friends have left LinkedIn because it’s become a bit of a stalky attempted pick up site where they keep getting random messages from people asking them if they are single, asking them on dates or making advances.
    Wait.

    If you want to pick up women, why not use something that is more... appropriate... for that like Tinder or Plenty of Fish or whatever?
    I believe it’s a favourite for chaps who are in relationships/married as their other half doesn’t see the dating apps and no history on dating sites.
    Just do what I do and wear a Zorro mask on Tinder.

    Works every time.
    Candidly, the main problem with Tinder is that whenever you go out on a date, you're faced with a dilemma:

    Which is more important to you: mocking astrology or getting laid?
    In a situation where you have signed up to Tinder, the answer to that question ought to be pretty obvious.

    On Topic, Rishi's problem is that he is having to do early term unpopular stuff (cut spending, raise taxes) as the countdown clock ticks towards the next election. Even if he were a political genius, that wouldn't be easy.

    And, bless him, he isn't.
    In short - Rishi has been dealt a shit hand. And is shit at playing it.
    The thing is that all he had to do was play it safe. After Boris & Truss, that would have been enough of a change.

    Dull but competent. Steal Starmer's "Mr Steady" costume, but throw in a small tax cut of some sort as a marker for a brighter post-election future.

    It might have been enough. It would at least have limited the size of the coming defeat.
    Fate was cruel to him. All he had to do was be competent. Yet competence was the once thing he lacked.

    Well, competence and common sense.

    Come to think of it, competence, common sense and humility.

    Among the things he lacks are such diverse elements as competence, common sense, humility and the ability to use a contactless card ...
    It may be as simple as he lacks friends. I can't think of a single solid Sunak ally. That'd explain more fully Cameron's return as he's quite good at that.

    Thanks.

    Among the things he lacks are such diverse elements as competence, common sense, humility, the ability to use a contactless card, and friends.

    Also, a sense of the absurd, any clue about how most people live their lives, any inkling that he has any inadequacies ...
    Blimey, I didn't expect the Spanish Inquisition.
    Quite right too. We should be training our own inquisitors, rather than relying on foreigners.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    Ravichandran Ashwin: India spinner out of third Test against England because of family emergency
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/68303676

    Hope for his family's sake it's not as serious as it sounds, but for somebody as committed as Ashwin to pull out of a Test I doubt if it's an ingrowing toenail.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,116
    isam said:

    The only interesting thing from the Labour gains in these by elections is to set them against their by election gains just before the last time they took over from the Tories

    Blair’s party were adding 5000 votes to 92 results in their wins whilst yesterday they added 100 in one and lost 5000 in the other.

    Turnouts were 37% compared to 62% in SE Staffs 1996 then 71% in Wirral South 1997

    I think that means a likely low turnout in the next GE and room for a surprise 3rd party surge in votes if not seats

    If this is the best that Tory apologists can come up with, can I suggest it's not very good?

    Factoring in the turnout, the Tories were supported by just 9% of the electorate in Wellingborough and 13% in Kingswood. That is in their heartland, where they had well over half the vote at the last election.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,841
    isam said:

    The only interesting thing from the Labour gains in these by elections is to set them against their by election gains just before the last time they took over from the Tories

    Blair’s party were adding 5000 votes to 92 results in their wins whilst yesterday they added 100 in one and lost 5000 in the other.

    Turnouts were 37% compared to 62% in SE Staffs 1996 then 71% in Wirral South 1997

    I think that means a likely low turnout in the next GE and room for a surprise 3rd party surge in votes if not seats

    You can derive whatever comfort you like from the assertion the sheer number of Labour votes cast doesn't mean they won convincingly or the assertion all the voters who stayed at home were basically Conservatiuves making a protest or the idea evety Reform voter is basically a Conservative who will come back to the blue camp at the General Election.

    That's basically all who are opposed to a Labour win at the next election have got.

    Perhaps we should also ask why 25,000 who voted Conservative in Wellingborough in December 2019 didn't do so yesterday or the 19,000 who voted Conservative in Kingswood in December 2019 and didn't do so yesterday?

    It can't just be about the Labour vote.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,119
    AlsoLei said:

    pigeon said:

    Cookie said:

    pigeon said:

    IanB2 said:

    What sane person would vote for another five years of this?

    Everyone who's done well out of this Government and anyone who's afraid of Labour. That, especially in the former category, encompasses a lot of people. And then there are the reflexive habit voters who turn up to put an X by the Tory on polling day and otherwise pay no attention at all to politics. That's also a lot of people.
    I have no enthusiasm for this government.
    Yet there is only one alternative government: Labour. And in almost every respect in which I think the government are wrong, Labour are or have been just as wrong or are wronger. Labour aren't going to invest in infrastructure in the north or grow the economy or control immigration or fight back against the lunatic fringes of woke or make our lives more pleasant in any way. The worst and most inept and most disastrous thing this government has done - lockdown - Labour were urging them to do more and harder.

    So while I've no motivation for more of the current shit, voting Conservative might be the only way to stop what looks to me like an even worse option. That's the only reason I can see the Cons might still get votes.

    Labour might, I suppose, possibly build more houses. That's one respect in which they might be an improvement.

    (For the record, I'm still undecided on who to vote for.)
    There is no reason at all to believe Labour pledges on housing development. Firstly because there's no reason to believe politicians on almost any subject; secondly because an election performance strong enough to get Starmer into Downing Street will create a fresh cohort of suburbanite Labour MPs who will be every inch as Nimbyish as the Tories they replace; and thirdly because it would infuriate the wealthy grey vote, who are the only people (save for the extremely rich) who MPs actually care about, and who have a vested interest both in frustrating development anywhere near their own homes, and in choking off the supply of property full stop to ensure that their house prices continue to go up.

    There is every indication, stretching back well before the immolation of the green spending pledges to the refusal of Reeves to countenance any measures either to reform the state pension or to shift the burden of taxation from earned incomes to assets, that Labour are just another Conservative Party, almost entirely in hock to Tory voters, Tory interests and Tory ideas. Their offer for the next election will be a commitment to change as little as possible so as not to upset the winners from the existing settlement. A Labour Government is about changing the name plates on office doors and the bums on the seats of ministerial limos and little else.
    Something is going to change by the end of the decade. The only question is what.

    The housing situation is already unsustainable - but, by 2030, the majority of millennials will be less than 20 years from retirement. The time for hoping to buy a home of their own will have passed for many. They'll have pension pots that won't come close to paying for the level of rent they can expect to pay in retirement.

    Meanwhile, the boomer generation will be starting to pass away, and the shape of our population pyramid will ensure that their inherited wealth will be concentrated into ever-fewer hands.

    Society will have bifurcated into those who've been able to get onto the property ladder, and the vast majority of working age who have no hope of ever doing so. Their experiences of life will be wholly different. The divide between the two is growing already and will be unbridgeable by then.

    There'll be no hope, and no reward for ambition. The drag on our country's economy will be humongous.

    What are our options - a massive house-building program? some form of catastrophic crash? mass emigration? riots? lynch mobs?

    In the next few years, the government is going to have to - whether explicitly or implicitly - pick one.
    The problem is supply sided. Screw the NIMBYs. Build build build.
  • Options
    AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 609
    isam said:

    The only interesting thing from the Labour gains in these by elections is to set them against their by election gains just before the last time they took over from the Tories

    Blair’s party were adding 5000 votes to 92 results in their wins whilst yesterday they added 100 in one and lost 5000 in the other.

    Turnouts were 37% compared to 62% in SE Staffs 1996 then 71% in Wirral South 1997

    I think that means a likely low turnout in the next GE and room for a surprise 3rd party surge in votes if not seats

    We've not seen any of those blockbuster turnouts in recent years, have we?

    Turnouts this decade range from 24% (Southend West, with no labour or lib dem candidate) to 52.3% (Tiverton & Honiton).

    I know that the Tories are trying to push the "unrepresentative results on a low turnout" line, but these were both distinctly middle-of-the-pack.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,358
    edited February 16
    isam said:

    The only interesting thing from the Labour gains in these by elections is to set them against their by election gains just before the last time they took over from the Tories

    Blair’s party were adding 5000 votes to 92 results in their wins whilst yesterday they added 100 in one and lost 5000 in the other.

    Turnouts were 37% compared to 62% in SE Staffs 1996 then 71% in Wirral South 1997

    I think that means a likely low turnout in the next GE and room for a surprise 3rd party surge in votes if not seats

    There's a slightly different context according to a former Tory strategist I spoke to today.

    Towards the end those by-elections literally could have led to the government falling given John Major's non-existent majority, they actually meant something, particularly with the UUP annoyed at the government.

    This parliament's by-elections aren't going to trigger a change of government or herald an early election, that's why the swing is important, so last night is comparable to Dudley West.

    Six out of the twelve largest Con to Lab by-election swings since 1945 have come in this parliament.
This discussion has been closed.