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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So far, at least, the intense Daily Mail campaign against H
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So far, at least, the intense Daily Mail campaign against Harriet Harman is not being reflected in the daily YouGov figures
Today’s YouGov poll for the Sun sees LAB back at 39% the share at which it has been getting for months as the YouGov weekly average trend chart above shows.
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Here is the article, and its really worth reading if you haven't already bothered to do so already.
Benedict Brogan in the Telegraph - David Cameron’s election gamble could electrify British politics
"On welfare reform and education, the other great construction sites – as the French would call them – of this administration, radical progress was possible because the two parties co-operated. These days, the Coalition’s achievements are often likened to a glass half empty. It is worth recalling, though, that it used to be half full. Two parties that disagreed on plenty were able to agree sweeping changes to the way benefits are administered and our children are taught. In other areas too – the NHS, police, migrants – the Coalition achieved change that Labour never dared and even Mrs Thatcher could not deliver.
Yet with little left to trouble with in legislative terms, and the parties scrabbling for advantage as an election looms into view, the Coalition is seen increasingly as an obstacle. On the Lib Dem side, plenty of activists and MPs wish it had never happened. The discipline required by government is not to their liking – and they see in their single-figure poll ratings the terrible price they have paid for riding the Tory tiger. They fear a wipeout in the European elections in May, and devastation next year."
Of course, the Daily Mail is also a classic old-fashioned Marmite product. They are becoming increasingly rare in the newspaper business (the News of the World is no more, although The Scotsman is still fighting a collapsing rearguard action).
Looks like Blair McDougall is turning himself into the Marmite of the IndyRef campaign. The Betory Together campaign director led the No debating team at the Prestwick Academy referendum debate, and he managed to turn an 11 point No lead before the debate into an 11 point Yes lead after the debate. Not only did the DKs all go Yes, but McDougall even managed to convince a significant chunk of No supporters to change to Yes. He is a real asset to the movement for self-government.
Out of interest, it will be well worth watching Alex Salmond's personal polling in the run up to the Indy Referendum as well as a post result analysis for the next GE and Holyrood to get a real feel of how the SNP might perform in both elections. Twitter
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB Feb 20
EdM gets a 28% YouGov rating as best PM - the highest ever. He's still some way behind Cameron's 37% pic.twitter.com/alxl4ezPBY
Ben Page, Ipsos MORI @benatipsosmori Feb 20
@MSmithsonPB I sometimes think the less he says the better he does. Must do analysis of ratings vs press coverage
ChristinaD @fitalass Feb 20
@benatipsosmori @MSmithsonPB Be good to see analysis of ratings vs press coverage Raised issue on PB as opposite of DC LotO ratings/coverage
I know that SNP supporters on this site are now scrabbling around looking for individual school Indy debate votes to use as a comfort blanket, but it might have been more convincing if they didn't ignore or seek to undermine other larger school mock Indy Referendums or University debates and votes. I note also the use of the new 'Betory' nickname for the Better Together campaign instead of Bitter Together or Project Fear in this post. Fitaloon and I had an enjoyable discussion on the 'fed' SNP Independence lines that been repeatedly used over the last year, and that the attempts to dress up the Better Together campaign as a Tory effort is now gathering pace and shows real desperation on the part of the SNP/Yes campaign. How soon they forget that the Conservatives appear to be benefiting from the Indy campaign in Scottish by elections while the SNP are not.
Its interesting how the old line of 'too wee, too stupid and too poor' hit the dust on here after I pointed out the fact that the only posters who used this term were Nationalists on the site.
SNP 38% (+18)
Lab 33% (-9)
Con 14% (-3)
LD 7% (-12)
Grn 3% (+2)
UKIP 3% (+2)
oth 2%
http://www.statgeek.co.uk/polling/recent-voting-intention/
http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2014/02/26/20002-20140226ARTFIG00043-les-francais-pessimistes-sur-l-avenir-economique-du-pays.php
Regarding skiing, the 3 year old managed to make it all the way down a red run without a harness, a couple of weeks ago. My sister and one of her sons who were with us were more used to the Scottish ski resorts and were suitably impressed. Evidence of the great snow in Scotland is that that nephew recently fell off a Scottish chairlift, 4 metres above the ground. He was completely unhurt due to the deep soft snow below him, and simply skied away. Now that's what I call lucky!
Regarding Scottish womens' voting behaviour, Sturgeon wiped the floor with Lamont last night. It won't shift many Undecideds, but it was a huge boost to Yes canvassers' morale. The Slabbers must be filling their breeks at the hopeless Lamont.
See you fixed it.
I read the first article (on my second time of reading the Mail as I skipped over it the first time). My immediate reaction was that it is a complete smear.
It's clear that Harmon was not a supporter of PIE. At the most she may not have fought against it hard enough. Additionally she probably believed some odd things in the 1970s which would be complete outside of the pale these days (although am sure that some of here written arguments were negotiating positions rather than a true statement of belief). But that was nearly 40 years ago!
This is unlikely to move anything from a VI perspective. I avidly dislike Harman - something about her just grates - but the Mail is being truly nasty at the moment to try and associate her with paedophillia
In other news, today will be my final day of posting on PB, which is fantastic site with great brains of all political stripes spoiled by a very odd certain few who make sinister personal digs, coupled with others (many of them the same people) who very depressingly seemed to want the Harman story to be more than it was.
As Richard T said yesterday: it is a shame some people cannot place common decency above partisan politics. Hear hear.
I will post today but this will be my final day on here - too many loud, unpleasant voices drowning out the brighter, better ones.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labour-partys-paedogeddon-theyre-never-3182595
PIE's objectives in the 70s had apologists, who didn't look beyond the simplistic Make Children Happy slogan. Harman could have chosen to have been more forthright, but would she have been able to rock the boat at NCCL and keep her job? A more contrite tone yesterday might have worked in her favour.
The coverage in the media until Sunday was muted, BBC seemed to be unwilling to show Mail front pages on its website for 3 days, then Observer and Guardian print articles wondering why Harman hasn't acted, sued. She goes to Newsnight, avoids saying anything on prime time tv on Monday. Ends up trying to whine her way through radio interviews on Tuesday.
Interestingly classic Mail distraction yesterday.It tried to bully Harman for 4 days,then changes track in today`s headline and pretends it is a protector of vulnerable people.
Do we know anything about this apparent Ipsos Mori poll, or is it a rehash of an old one, or rewriting something read elsewhere?
Almost half of Ukip supporters would never vote Tory, a poll reveals today.
It found Liberal Democrat voters were more likely to switch to the Conservatives.
The Ipsos MORI survey casts serious doubt on David Cameron’s attempts to win over Ukip supporters, with 48 per cent of them saying they would not back the Tories, compared with 43 per cent of Lib Dems.
Not surprising though, as less than 50% of Ukip supporters voted Tory in 2010. I think the Conservatives will be happy if they can nab 50% of Ukip's vote!
I shall miss you, LBS, though I must admit to feeling much the same way as you. Site moderation (which I have done elsewhere) is one of those things that only looks easy...
Oh for a like button - ALP - winning here!
All I did was give an answer to why it has been dredged up, though I will admit the frantic posts of our Left leaning friends are highly amusing!
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/25/harriet-harman-daily-mail
There must be innumerable instances of indiscrete comments by the Mail which can be dredged up once there was a furore.I am not surprised the Mail changed it`s tack before the hunter became the hunted.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
How do the tories change this? Clearly the budget next month is an opportunity but the number of opportunities left are diminishing. Osborne has done an excellent job (as has Alexander) but neither of them are ever going to be Mr popular. With Osborne still as Chancellor the tories need more prominent, ideally female, spokespeople out front repeating all the good news until it actually impinges on an electorate who clearly find politics boring.
Yesterday's issues sample may have simply been a random selection of shiny, happy people but if the mood is lifting then the tories have got to capitalise. At the moment they are not.
In any case, while it might damage Harman (poorly handled response, not the story itself) I have not seen anything which suggests it should damage Labour.
That wouldn't do it; it has nothing to do with personalities.
The Tories are, were and will be the nasty party. That much is obvious and improving economic prospects don't seem to be able to shake off the perception that it is a "mates" recovery with everyone else brought along grudgingly and incidentally.
Second, we are only a few years' hiatus away from "the good times". The Cons did such a good job of recovery and restoration that perhaps people want those good times back again believing that the scare stories were overdone. And we know that Lab know how to spend and make those good times reeaaaallly good.
So what's to be done?
Well more normal people front and centre for the Cons would help. Having said it's not about personalities, they just have too many OEs for their own good (I don't care how capable they are). Maybe those people aren't there but I feel like a stuck record when I say they must be able to find bright, articulate people from Barnsley (and no EPickles doesn't cut it).
They need to hold their nerve vs UKIP. People like me wince when they address another UKIP demand as that, naturally enough, emboldens UKIP.
And also, they need to whip in and I mean whip in no rebels their backbenchers. Rumbling along in the background is the perception that the Cons are fighting like ferrets in a sack. A serene, united, purposeful party with every soundbite "on message" would give a great impression to the voters.
Beyond that, they are fighting human nature with all its frailties and that is a near-insuperable challenge.
If you dislike the site to the point whereby it is intolerable for you then I don't get why you are hanging around? Surely you should just leave now rather than "one last day".
If you like the site on account of its cut & thrust debate then hang around and debate.
`The attacks on Harriet Harman are a load of bull`
`
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4016234.ece
I agree with your suggestion that the blues need to put more human faces to the fore, which is why I think GO should be moved. A brighter face moving into an election would help lift the economic message.
GO just reminds me of Capt. Darling from Blackadder.
Get a sense of proportion mate.
Testing resumes tomorrow, huzzah! The Australian Grand Prix is just over a fortnight away.
Sorry I forgot the golden leftie rule - when we do it it's all ok and just 'amusing' - hypocricy rules ok!
It was a scripted piece of nastiness that was roundly condemned, and she apologised for., Made worse that at least one of her children is red-haired.
Nice to know you are one of the nasty left.
Why the Harman PIE affair is in the news now, having been in the news a number of times over the decades is unclear. Perhaps it has arisen out of some courtcase?.
I do wonder if there has been a bit of dark arts, to put Harman and Dromey on the back foot, for reasons quite unrelated to pieces of PIE.
The seventies and eighties were very different times, a curious mix of more innocent and less innocent times. We all knew what jokes about scoutmasters, vicars and choirboys were really about. This was considered suitable early evening entertainment on the achingly PC 80's Channel 4:
http://www.80sactual.com/2009/10/1983-mini-pops-controversy-on-channel-4.html?m=1
LBS, come back under another name, there is precedent.
We are getting the Second Estimate of 2013 Q4 GDP; the first estimate of Business Investment for the same quarter; and the Index of Services for December 2013.
None of these qualify for headline news as they are all rehashing previous announcements but there has been some nervousness in the markets about the direction and velocity of the UK's economic revival. It is not that anyone thinks a crisis is lurking around the corner, just that the momentum of recovery is waning relative to our main trading partners. As an economist quoted by Bloomberg stated: "the UK is ceasing to surprise on the upside" (and, yes, there is an Citicorp sponsored index to measure the degree of surprise caused by economic announcements!).
As an example, the pound has eased a couple of cents against the dollar in the last couple of weeks (though it is still up 11% on the year against Bloomberg's trade weighted currency basket).
So a confirmation of the 0.7% GDP Q4 growth rate is important as too are the Business Investment Figures and Services Index.
When the news has been universally good, markets are reluctant to yield to the inevitable slowdown. The OBR has been clear in its forecasts that the (quarterly) growth rate will fall back in 2014 (their estimate is 4 quarters of 0.5% growth), but market expectations haven't yet followed.
All eyes then on the 9:30 releases.
So we have seen lots of comments from him about the recovery being too much based on consumer spending, the need to increase exports and investment, the fact that we still have the largest deficit of any large country in Europe, the fact that a lot of this is structural and we need to cut public spending more etc etc.
The risk, as @TOPPING points out, is that he just might be a victim of his own success with people believing the problem is "fixed". How anyone can think it is fixed to the extent it would be safe to let Balls and Miliband anywhere near it is beyond me but presumably people do.
We are used to having election budgets designed to make the government in power more popular in the short term. I just wonder if we will see an austerity budget focussed on the deficit above all else (whilst acknowledging all the good news on unemployment, growth etc). I do think Osborne needs to get the focus of the discussion back to our horrendous and dangerous borrowing. It is the area that Labour is weakest.
Did you ever do chapter 2 of what are George and Danny up to? I was really busy over the weekend. I was having trouble reconciling your figure of £40bn "hidden" expenditure with the OBR's 2.4% growth of central government spending.
Bookies do not often go too far off the mark. Quite apart from the apathetic and not bothered the franchise includes a number of demographics with low turnouts.
It was the gharish invitations to "Tarts and Vicars" parties which so livened up the decade.
A dog collar and subfusc suit jacket worn over two tone lamé loons was enough to pass muster.
How it would have confused the delicate souls of SMukesh and Lost Boy Scout to see their fellow undergraduettes dressed in low cut Brownie uniforms!
He is not one to calm the waters with "money no object" promises.
If you look through my posts you will see that I too hate tribal politics, which I have often described as both childish and depressing. You will also find that even though I am a Kipper I have praised Osborne for the fantastic way he has handled the economy, the LD's for raising the personal tax allowance, I even praised Brown for keeping us out of the Euro.
My opinion on this Harman business is that she was incredibly naive, and desperate to boost her right on credentials so did nothing to boot PIE out of the NCCL. If the NF had applied to be affiliated, or where affiliated when she joined, do you think they would have been allowed to be affiliates?
Her arrogance is breathtaking as witnessed by her Newsnight car crash, but I do not think she in any way, shape or form supported PIE or their disgusting beliefs. She is though a seasoned politician who can look after herself, not so long ago she described Danny Alexander as a ginger rodent.
My interest is in the work of Operation Fernbridge and Fairbanks, which already seems to have the whiff of a cover up attached to it. Harry Kasir has already been released without charge, which the detectives working on the case are allegedly very unhappy about.
Someone mentioned earlier the continuous stories of a high powered establishment paedephilia ring, with ex-politicians from all parties allegedly involved. Tom Watson did brilliantly to raise this in the HOC, he seems to have gone quiet but he is a good man and I am hoping he will continue to raise the issue.
Did the establishment paedephilia ring exist? We will never know unless Operations Fernbridge and Fairbanks are allowed to investigate thoroughly.
Anyway, sorry if I have offended you in any way, as I said please do not leave because of me.
That cant' be right. The last Scottish general election, when the SNP won the overall majority, was only 2 years and 9 months ago, and IIRC it was a long time after that that Betfair opened their IndyRef market. So, I would guess that the market is about 2 years old. Unless there is a way of actually seeing the start date?
Are you sure it wasn't you who was laughing? After all, you have a low opinion of me as you said yourself yesterday for reasons which completely baffled me.
"Stay"
Literally, there isn't the money for it and it'd just be increasing the structural deficit, but politically the costs would be even worse, as it'd both imply that the deficit problem was sorted and that it must have been made out as worse than it was if there's now scope for significant goodies / tax cuts - which itself implies that the cuts were either ideological or cynical (so as to provide a pre-election slush fund).
The political strategy for the Conservatives has to be that they - and only they - can be trusted to run the economy. That means ensuring the public believe that there's still a job to be done there, which has the advantage of being true. Some dividend from the work already done might be justified, but not at the cost of undermining the whole.
Personally I just skim the threads, reading anything from the pleasanter posters and skipping comments stuffed with silly nicknames, abuse etc. In the last resort, if some anonymous person is nasty, who cares really? Do reconsider.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26350008
I thought that on the back of the revised construction figures we were closer to 0.8 than 0.6.
Did you ever do chapter 2 of what are George and Danny up to? I was really busy over the weekend. I was having trouble reconciling your figure of £40bn "hidden" expenditure with the OBR's 2.4% growth of central government spending.
I am still working on Chapter 2 of the George and Danny story, probably getting so involved with the detail that wood and trees are merging.
The way in which financial figures are presented to Parliament is archaic and simply obfuscatory.
My two big bugbears are the practice of netting income off expenses (i.e. treating departmental income as negative spending and, even worse, treating sales of assets as negative capital investment) and the exclusion of costs and revenues associated with the financial interventions into the banking sector.
The two practices above allow massive distortions to the headline figures which can only be understood with painstaking research and reconstruction.
At the weekend I will be posting Chapter 2 which will focus on Treasury spending as this is where most of the massive revised transactions are 'hidden'.
As an interim taster, the headline 'cut' in capital spending is not a cut at all. What it represents is a massive inflow of capital from liquidated assets. We all know about the sale of Lloyds shares but a far bigger impact has been made by RBoS, Northern Rock, B&B etc. repaying loans earlier than scheduled (some £7 billion of cash as 'negative capital spending').
On the spending side the single biggest change is a "mend the roof while the sun shines" provision taken by 'marking to market' the value of the APF assets held by the BoE as part of the QE programme. A single write down of just under £14 billion is being taken this year as a provision against future losses (i.e. non-cash). Even the OBR doesn't think these losses will start crystallising until 2017 and then will be incurred over a long taper.
What all this shows is the flexibility George and Danny have as a result of inbound cash flows as the financial interventions unwind. It is clear that the Treasury are managing the public finances to fit within a falling Net Cash Requirement measure.
As the NCR is massively below the PSNBex figures used as headlines by the media and even the ONS, this gives George and Danny enormous space for electoral manoeuvre. And the public "deficit" figures are there to hide what is going on.
Anyway more to come on this as George and Danny story gets developed into Yellow Boxes.