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The return of an old by-election tradition – politicalbetting.com
The return of an old by-election tradition – politicalbetting.com
If you thought things couldn't get any worse for Labour in Rochdale, a friend messaged me: "In a dark omen, the sewage pipes burst in the Rochdale Labour campaign office yesterday, and the whole downstairs is covered with the proverbial."
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There are conflicts all around the world that don't get a fraction of the spotlight or attention that this one has had. I wonder what is so unique about this one conflict, that every moment becomes headline news unlike all the others?
That could really add to the gaiety of the nation.
So, this header only really works if the UK is somehow involved in the Israel-Hamas conflict by the end of the year.
Must be tempting for Rochdale’s voters.
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024
...Russia still maintains the strategic objective of bringing about the subjugation of Ukraine. It now believes that it is winning. Surrender terms currently being proposed by Russian intermediaries include Ukraine ceding the territory already under Russian control along with Kharkiv, and in some versions Odessa; agreeing not to join NATO; and maintaining a head of state approved by Russia. The only significant concession Russia proposes is that what is left of Ukraine can join the EU...
"That's not many people.
The US is a country of 331 million so that's less than 1%.
Net the migration rate is the lowest in decades."
+++
So in your eyes an illegal immigration rate of 1% of the population, per year, is nothing to worry about?
Right. Let's break this down
If this was the UK, it would mean that 670,000 people are arriving on the boats every year, nearly 2000 every day, every day of the year
You don't think that might be a tiny bit of an issue? The boats are a massive issue for HMG at around 50,000 a year, or whatever it is. America is taking more than ten times that, under Biden
It occurs to me, after all this time, that you aren't dogmatic, or amusingly obsessive, you are just thick
Endless endless bleating about Gaza. Endless
I get that it is bad, but there is other stuff going on. You would not know about it, from CNN
They spend 30 minutes on the horror of Gaza, then do a quick whiparound the world, Ukraine, AI, Superbowl, then right back to Gaza, for another hour, maybe this time the charities and the starvation and the role of - I do not joke - data in the Gaza conflict
It is perverse
The bit about the people of Rochdale deserving a good MP for them is a good one. Ali was actually shaping up to be that.
In many ways Ali is a strong candidate, a Labour moderate, media savvy in how he walks the walk and talks the talk, his apology why he was wrong with repeating the conspiracy theory came across well. I agree He’s definitely got to be the political betting favourite to win from here.
In fact there’s still a strong argument Labour should even have toughed this one out, what has Ali said now in public domain that’s anti semitic?
He’s deffo a passionate hater of the Netanyahu government and questioning of their politics and motives, and that’s certainly not anti semitism by itself, in fact with 30K Palestinians dead in one sided duck shoot, you don’t even need to be Muslim or left wing for this to be getting under your skin about now - just listen to David Cameron and the frustration with which he is saying no to Netanyahu this week.
The “former” Labour strategist on R4 this morning put it down to the Mail being very clever in how they held on to what they had for just the right moment. Is it really the Mail’s own work how they got hold of the information in the first place, or even when they are allowed to publish it?
I'm not doing Wellingborough as their last LEs were in 2021, which is a different planet.
Kingswood:
Con, 8351, 37.4%
Lab, 8112, 36.3%
LD, 3279, 14.7%
Green, 1952, 8.7%
Ind, 626, 2.8%
RefUK, 6, 0.0%
By the time you account that Labour did not stand candidates in 2 wards covering about 12% of the constituency, plus a generous LLG share which Labour will drink from to an extent, then I expect Labour to be home with some comfort. (Con and LD managed full coverage, and the Independent stood where Labour didn't).
Also RefUK stood in a ward only a small part of which is in Kingswood, so covered only 0.4% of the electorate - it wasn't an unusually terrible result for them.
I'll look at Rochdale for any insights that might give when I have a few minutes, as they had a 2023 round.
If I had a vote in it, I would definitely be checking out the MRLP candidate.
Can anybody argue that Paul Waugh would have been such a poor choice to represent the people of Rochdale as opposed to Azhar Ali? Waugh is a local lad who has succeeded in a vicious industry, has strong links with the area still and understands Westminster. Starmer can justifiably say "this wouldn't have happened if you'd listened" and then say "I hoped that I'd changed the Party sufficiently. It's clear there are still some fringe elements who are whack jobs. From now on,
Sue GrayI choose who is a candidate".I hope they come to the count dressed like that.
If I was a monster raving loony, I would be a giant squid with a massive costume metres wide right across the stage 🦑
This is pretty unusual for a major firm (although after their abject performance at the last US Election, nothing should surprise.)
Mark Coleman is a climate change activist and former vicar of Rochdale who is campaigning for "radical action on climate". He was jailed in April 2023 for his part in a Just Stop Oil protest in Bishopsgate, London. Despite running as an independent, he has the support of two local Labour Party officers. He formerly ran as a Green Party candidate for council elections in Liverpool.
One of the candidates is a Nazi who is full of shit.
While Labour have a dodgy candidate and their office is flooded with sewage.
50,000 people arriving by boats is not a massive issue in this country. If it weren't for the people drowning, I couldn't give less of a shit.
If you're not a dogmatic racist, why does it matter? And if you are a dogmatic racist, shouldn't you be happy the migration figures are down?
Waugh is not even a Labour member? so what was he doing at a Labour selection meeting? why should he gazump someone like Ali who has worked as a local leader for Labour for many years?
https://www.loonyparty.com/5017/8563/rochdale-by-election/
Have you suddenly become a bit stupid, like the rest of PB? This is quite depressing
I wasn't even commenting on the impact this might have on the outcome of the present Ukraine war. I thought that was fairly clear
I was commenting on how this will influence war-making from here on, just as the advent of the V2 - which led to the ICBM - massively impacted geopolitics - and warfare - from the end of WW2 onwards
If hypersonic missiles, which cannot be shot down, are a thing (and this is what CNN are claiming) then I do not see how traditonal navies can operate. How do you defend a £3bn capital ship like an aircraft carrier against a £3m hypersonic missile which cannot be shot down? If it cannot be shot down, or deflected, then you can't defend the ship. So that's the end of the carrier, the carrier group, the navy as we htave known it, they make no sense, they are merely very expensive and easy targets
No?
Of course CNN might have got this wrong, maybe the Ukes are lying for propaganda purposes - I have no idea, on that front
You are a white supremacist who prioritises migration, but doesn't care about migration figures, while I care about standard of living, democracy, education and the economy.
America has had illegal migration for centuries, the "undocumented gardener" meme is not an original thought. This isn't something new under Biden.
EDIT: It wasn't me that flagged your comment though.
If these hypersonic missiles are real (and I am relying on Woke Mad CNN here, so veracity is an issue) then that to me says the era of the aircraft carrier and the trad navy is over. It's not just more difficult to operate enormous ships, it is pointless, they will be zapped
It's great we just spent £6bn on two of these things. I guess we can use them for "humanitarian" purposes
Indeed I have a feeling that is the only way we will ever use them, they will never be risked in battle, for the reasons I have cited
If you've done a mix then profit = Lay stakes - back stakes ?
From that story alone I have always been uncomfortable with the Conservative Party, particularly at its fringes. My concern may be rational, it may be irrational, much like most people on here couldn't vote Labour (quite justifiably) because of Corbyn- Labour's anti-Semitism.
Next?
Everyone who bet on the candidates who they did list would simply lose, and everyone who laid those candidates would win.
Lots of Betfair markets don't have every possible winner listed and indeed can't do (e.g. SPOTY before the shortlist is drawn up, Presidential candidates before the Convention etc).
They'll never be risked in battle due to the threat of drones, but £6bn warship versus £200k drones means the era of traditional navy is already over. Missiles isn't what's changed that, drones already have.
Indeed, American ships that have Missile Defence capability test their ability to shoot down ballistic missile targets on a range before deployment. Routine. T45 destroyers can do this, incidentally.
The hyperventilating on the subject conflates two things.
- Rocket missiles that are hypersonic. Any ballistic missile that's better than a V2, pretty much.
- Air breathing missiles that can actually fly at Mach 5.
The first exist as air launched weapons - the Russians have some. Arguments about utility continue. They have been shot down, previously. They can't manouver very much if at all.
The second are an extremely expensive might-be-possible technological development. That may not be worth it. At those speed, any attempt to manoeuvre involves hitting your own shockwave or disrupting the air flow into the engine. Which would cause your missile to explode/disintegrate. The utility of charging towards your enemy in a straight line, while glowing in infra-red like a madman's dream....
Not sure a bookie is allowed to run a book with one or more runners missing, but of course this is an exchange, not a bookie.
They also are pretty clueless. Don't even bother asking customer services. It is manned by Youths too stupid to get a job with the Post Office.
Long answer: Punters in political markets try and build a book over time, backing and laying various candidates as the prices change. Betfair will add any outside shot if they’re in the news and someone requests it. Betfair really needs to make this a complete market ASAP, and someone with an interest should log a complaint with them.
I guess it's where all the sad Russian trolls end up after being hammered.
Scrapped a Labour mayor - already happened.
Unseat Thangham Debonaire - almost certain to happen
Strong green showing in Kingswood by election making it squeaky bum time for Labour - let’s see if I’m right.
These votes I claim green will get are Lib Dem transfers to Green, not to Labour. It’s not that crazy you know Nick.
Meanwhile in Wellingborough we have the girlfriend of the disgraced and rejected by scandal former MP running as a proxy for that disgraceful and rejected by scandal former MP.
One story is unpleasant and should be condemned. The other is an assault on democracy.
I am not a ballistic missile engineer/strategic defence analyst, I dunno
The importance of this CNN report (if it is acccurate) is that they, and the Ukes, are claiming this is the first time a "hypersonic" missile has been used in actual warfare, rather than just a test or a wargame. DYOR!
"CNN
—
Ukraine claims it has evidence Russia fired an advanced hypersonic missile – one that experts say is almost impossible to shoot down – for the first time in the almost 2-year-old war.
The government-run Kyiv Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise said in a Telegram post that debris recovered after a February 7 attack on the Ukrainian capital pointed to the use of a Zircon hypersonic cruise missile by the Russian military."
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/13/europe/ukraine-russia-zircon-hypersonic-missile-intl-hnk-ml/index.html
With a total blockade, how long would Taiwan be able to hold out? What can Taiwan's allies do to prevent it?
This is much less risky for the PRC than a land invasion.
Every new candidate added to the US presidential election I start off at + £251.69 for instance.
Which way are ginger cats predicted to be voting?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/13/russia-zircon-hypersonic-super-missile-ukraine-failure-kyiv/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckveyze03e1o
And he's not the first person I know who's had significant delays waiting for an ambulance.
I guess one can also be a Labour Party member and travel to NI to campaign for another party there? Or indeed be a member resident in NI and campaigning for one of the local candidates?
It's not the case that this missile would be impossible to shoot down, though. Harder, yes, perhaps too hard for the deployed technology right now - but people will have been working on better technology to cope with it for a while. And, also, the faster the missile is going the harder it is for it to hit a specific target.
It will be interesting to see how many of these missiles Russia is able to produce, and whether they are able to hit anything specific with them.
Briscombe & Thrupp FC, Chipstead FC, New Salamis FC, Real Bedford FC, FC Clacton etc.....
'Consider a few numbers: Last week, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released updated 10-year economic and budget forecasts. The numbers look significantly better than they did a year earlier, and immigration is a key reason.
. . .
This will in turn lead to better economic growth. As CBO Director Phill Swagel wrote in a note accompanying the forecasts: As a result of these immigration-driven revisions to the size of the labor force, “we estimate that, from 2023 to 2034, GDP will be greater by about $7 trillion and revenues will be greater by about $1 trillion than they would have been otherwise.'
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/02/13/immigration-economy-jobs-cbo-report/
Here's the CBO forecast: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59946
There’s a difference between an ICBM (a rocket launched from the ground), a rocket-powered missile launched from an aircraft, and a revolutionary mach 5 jet-powered missile. The first two are old technology, can be seen from space, and aren’t going to do much in modern warfare.
The third is an interesting innovation if it works to lock a target, rather than simply heading for a fixed co-ordinate. It would need air defence elements to be positioned along the trajectory to anticipate its arrival, as it goes faster than the defence missiles. There’s no evidence that Russia, China, or North Korea actually have any of these, despite several demonstrations they claim to have given.
In fact you can have them me if you like.
That’s not the same as a ‘private amblulance’ service, which is something slightly different.
Warfare has always been about weapons systems and defences to counter those weapons systems. A new weapons is developed (say, the tank), and it is brilliant. Then new weapons and tactics are developed to counter that weapon. But that can be very costly to develop and field.
It then comes down to a cost. If a $500k weapon can down a $1 billion aircraft, that's a win for the weapon. If you have to spend $500k shooting down a $10k drone, that's ... problematic.
This new missile is expensive. Its target (say, an aircraft carrier) is much more expensive. That's a win for the attacker. Any system (say, laser), designed to counter ideally needs to be cheaper - or hit first time. But on the other hand, the missiles are expensive, the distances large, and the targets small. If you send 20 missiles after one target, that cost builds up as well.
There's an added issue with the fact that if the missile is nuclear-capable, then the defender does not know if it is carrying instant sunshine - and if they have nukes as well, it may lead to a nuclear response.
With due respect to the police, that's not a lot of help. They couldn't do anything that David wasn't already doing.
(Friday was a very bad day for me. After witnessing the CPR, I came home to discover on FB that an old schoolfriend had died. Fortunately bad luck did not happen in threes.)
e.g.
"The U.S. Department of Defense says there have been more than 180 instances of Chinese military aircraft flying dangerously close to U.S. aircraft since the fall of 2021."
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/South-China-Sea/Chinese-fighter-jet-nearly-crashes-into-U.S.-bomber
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J96koY0EQ48