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Michelle Obama moving up in the WH2024 betting – politicalbetting.com
Michelle Obama moving up in the WH2024 betting – politicalbetting.com
Quite what lies behind the reports that Michelle Obama could run for the presidency I do not know. What we have seen is a fair amount of speculation in the US media in the past 24 hours.
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If Biden dies it'll be Harris.
1. Biden's age has been a known factor since, well, the 1940s. He was still allowed to stand unchallenged. He's not going to wake up tomorrow and suddenly realise he's in his 80s. Indeed, he's more likely to forget (joke - actually his mental capacity seems ok-ish; not quite what you'd like for a president but better than Trump's anyway).
2. There's pretty much no way for anyone to stop Biden through the primaries, so this theory *entirely* relies on him withdrawing voluntarily or dropping dead.
3. If he does drop dead, then Kamela Harris automatically moves into pole position for the nomination.
4. Even if Biden did withdraw, all the delegates at the convention would be his. Why would he (or they, if he couldn't) pick Michelle Obama over someone with, say, proven executive, DC or leadership history?
5. Barack Obama was popular in 2008; not so much now.
6. Trump has already beaten one ex-First Lady - and she had a stronger CV. Who next? Dolley Madison?
7. Those serving governors, senators and secretaries - not to mention the VP - might have something to say about who should be the candidate.
8. Does she even want it?
9. What's her platform? What does she stand for?
10. And following on, if she's continuity-2016, doesn't that just give Trump the chance to run on Drain The Swamp again?
As for Buttigieg, not south of 100/1 for nominee, never mind WH. Too many other candidates, no vacancy, and as Transport Sec, the small matters of Boeing aircraft falling apart and mishandling that train crash in Ohio.
There is definitely a hunger for Someone Else to run for the Democrats over many election cycles.
You heard it here first.
It'd be sheer nepotism to put her forwarded as the candidate. No better than one of the Trump Mini-Mes taking the Repub nomination.
I'm convinced Harris would win if Biden dropped dead but others may have different views.
If the Donald can't run who gets the GOP nomination ? Would that be Haley - it's less obvious to me tbh.
I'd love to see him as US president but I suspect he'll never quite make it.
I might even have a nibble and I NEVER get involved, still less usually comment on US politics.
Can someone please tell me the mechanics of it not happening. Or if not now then what about in 2028?
I’ve thought for a long while that it would be a very low turnout, but that’s just my hunch rather than any polling
I suppose you could look at people saying DK/WNV in current polls and comparing to polls from previous elections
No serious candidate will enter the race now unless Biden withdraws or is incapacitated or worse first - and if that happens, it will be the convention not the primaries that decide things.
(If Biden did withdraw today, then any states where registrations *are* still open would suddenly gain massive significance, acting as a second New Hampshire. Even so, the vast majority of delegates would be Biden's.)
Lay all day.
So overall, a net reduction in turnout, but perhaps not as big as some might be assuming.
Many Dems want to ditch Biden but the next in line is Harris, who is just as unpopular. Harris got the job of VP because she was a woman of colour so to ditch her for say Newsom would be a terrible look for the Dems.
However, if the new candidate was also a woman of colour (e.g.Michelle Obama) then ditching Harris becomes much much easier.
https://johnkassnews.com/will-the-terrifying-michelle-obama-prophecy-come-true/
"Biden can drool all over his ties and look vaguely into space but they couldn’t dare replace him because that would mean the ascension of Kamala Harris to the presidency, and that would mean the end of the world. But a Michelle Obama could obliterate Kamala’s idiotic ambition as an identity politics totem, because Michelle could take her off the board and the Democrat political logic still holds.
Michelle’s Black Queen takes Kamala’s Black Queen of All Word Salads.
“Because, you know, Gavin Newsom doesn’t do it, JB Pritzker doesn’t do it,” Bevan said. “There’s nobody else, and it’s certainly not Kamala Harris. And that’s the problem. Michelle Obama is the only one who could come in and be coronated in Chicago in July or whatever the convention’s gonna be. And every Democrat around the country would be like, Yep, I get it. I’m on board’. There would be no, you know, even Kamala’s folks would have to be like, yeah, you know, ‘OK, fine.’ Because any other answer gonna have hurt feelings and you’re going to have a tear in the Democrat coalition just weeks before the presidential election. That is gonna be a real problem for for Democrats getting out their voters and so she’s the answer guys.”
I agree with Mike that Pete Buttigieg would be a much better choice if Biden keels over. He is a superb debater and has a detailed knowledge of infrastructure and the economy from his current post.
To keep my sanity I think I’ll find a Hopium pipe and fill a bowl, curl up and hope China Joe hangs on until November.
https://www.axios.com/2024/02/01/biden-israel-settler-violence-palestinians-executive-order
https://time.com/6257945/pete-buttigieg-east-palestine-ohio-train/
We don't have a fraud problem with in-person voters, but they tend towards non-Tory candidates. So the Conservative Government brought in ID. ID that was easier to source for older (Tory,?) voters than for younger ( non-Tory?) voters. We do have a genuine problem with fraudulently cast postal votes. These are predominantly used by older (Tory?) voters and no photo ID is required. Not that the older Tory voter was the fraud issue, but those who were also need no photo ID.
Hillary = 65,853,514 votes
Trump = 62,984,828 votes
Likewise, the only thing that counts in US elections is ECVs.
I'd expect that in 90% of scenarios where Biden doesn't make it through the election.
Liking Buttigieg or Michelle is irrelevant I think.
Time to repeal the 22nd Amendment.
This could be sold to Trump as allowing him to rule forever.
And it would mean he could face off against his arch nemesis: Barack Obama.
If Trump and the Democratic leadership were both in favour, surely this could be rushed through: It would require just a two thirds majority in both the Senate and the House. (Which could happen this week). And then it would need 38 legislatures to ratify it: which could certainly be done by end the of March.
And then we have the fight we really all wanted: Barack vs the Donald.
Heath 11,872,180
Wilson 11,645,616
Or,
Atlee 13,948,385
Churchill 13,717,851
It's not an unusual circumstance in a number of democracies with a variety of voting systems.
I think that's why, in the 1920's and 30's, STV was known as British Proportional Representation.
Yes, unlikely, and the precise mechanism not at all clear, but a less than 1% chance in this unprecedented (because of Trump) US election cycle? No way.
She doesn't want to do it. There are lot's of other potential candidates who do want to do it (some of them at least half decent). The procedural and timing circumstances to get it to happen are awkward and difficult even if she did want to do it.
The repeal of the 22nd amendment, to give us DJT v BHO, is more likely.
The Star Wars prequels accurately predicted how inequality and disputes over free trade and free movement led to a major shift to the far right. I'm started to reevaluate those movies as borderline genius despite being tedious borefests.
And then there's that, which is also important, and this is similar. I cannot see why this is any different, indeed not, and then the other stuff is also like this, isn't it?
No one can argue with that, so then we are left with something else, and also of course we continue and then sometimes you realise, and that changes things
No?
Our political discourse should improve. But the far bigger problem for our liberal democracy is virulently anti-British Islamist extremism which is both deeply homophobic and antisemitic, and in this case violent
2/ The ideology has to be confronted and comprehensively defeated.
We cannot possibly hope to tackle extremism if we keep failing to diagnose it or, worse still, if when we do recognise it we pretend it is something else and reach for warm words.
3/ Two years ago I wrote about how politicians failed to call out Islamist extremism behind Sir David Amess’s murder.
Today the same thing is happening as again society turns a blind eye.
It must end.
.
https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1753066693566611753?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Labour is impressing the business community and their position on the bankers bonuses, which many on social media think should be taxed more to fund the NHS, has helped.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/labour-playing-bazball-as-starmer-says-business-fingerprints-on-plans-for-power/ar-BB1hCf5Z?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=d8b5c96be13041c3a59bde75a984db36&ei=19
Delete “natural born” from the citizenship requirements. Time for President Arnie to win 50 States.
I do think her current price of 15 is a bit silly though. If it's based only on my hypothetical scenario (the last resort saviour from Trump) it shouldn't be as short as that.
2040 POTUS race - Elon Musk vs Jimmy Donaldson
My question however is why has Jenrick couched this in terms of potentially Islamophobic rhetoric? It's a dog whistle isn't it?
With the exception of Braverman who operates in similar circles, I can't think of a more odious politician than Jenrick.
Surely a mistake somewhere?
Has just been corrected.
Which is why most parties will only stand 2 or 3 candidates in a 5 seat constituency - and SF foolishly dis not stand enough candidates in many consistencies where they would otherwise have won a 3rd or 4th seat die to their late polling surge
Amess wasn't killed by "a psychopath who happened to be a Muslim"; the murderer's muslim identity was central to his actions and motivations.
"Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by six points among registered voters – 50 to 44 per cent – up from a one-point lead in December, according to a new poll.
The president is getting stronger among women voters in the Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday, leading his predecessor by 58 to 36 per cent. In December, Mr Biden’s lead was significantly smaller among women, 53 to 41 per cent"
This tends to confirm the recent Pennsylvania polling which had him ahead there by 8.
Perhaps the Republicans need a new candidate?
Which is that you have another voting system that doesn't simply anoint the recipient of most votes as the winner, this isn't a problem for most people, and it even applies to a voting system regarded as "proportional".
So the situation with the electoral college in the US sometimes conflicting with the popular vote is very far from being unusual.
Oh, by the way, you also get transfers of votes above the quota too.
Is Jenrick calling out the acts of terror or focusing on Islam? Perhaps the Mike Freer issue was initiated by some Labour scrote who has an issue with Gaza rather than an Islamic terrorist. I am uncomfortable with the rhetoric used, but I know why Jenrick is happy so to do.