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Peter Mandelson could well be right – LAB’s poll lead is artificial – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited February 4 in General
imagePeter Mandelson could well be right – LAB’s poll lead is artificial – politicalbetting.com

I happen to agree with Mandelson and I don’t believe that the election will see party vote shares in line with what the polls are currently predicting.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 30,706
    First like Labour, obviously.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 30,706
    It's in Labour's interests to maintain the 'too close to call' line right up to the election.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,420
    A real worry for LAB, I would argue, is if the blue team gets rid of Sunak who I regard as a huge liability.

    The only plausible alternatives in the HoC would be Penny Mordaunt or the return of strong and stable Theresa May. May would be quite a tricky opponent for Starmer.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 38,654
    edited January 30
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13024097/Deceased-sub-postmistress-guilty-stealing-25-000-15-years-ago-embezzlement-conviction-referred-High-Court.html

    Interesting that the Scottish courts seem to be processing this (which didn't even get beyond a guilty plea in the Sheriff Court in the first place)*.

    *Edit: so evidence not properly tested beyond advice from solicitor?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,308
    edited January 30
    When you talk about, "what the polls are currently showing" what do you mean?

    Are you refering to a polling average? The largest Labour lead? The smallest Labour lead? A particular polling firm?

    In January alone we have polls with Labour shares in the range 39.5%-49% and Conservative shares in the range 20%-29%. Obviously, most of them have to be wrong, but are you saying all of them are wrong?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,833

    When you talk about, "what the polls are currently showing" what do you mean?

    Are you refering to a polling average? The largest Labour lead? The smallest Labour lead? A particular polling firm?

    In January alone we have polls with Labour shares in the range 39.5%-49% and Conservative shares in the range 20%-29%. Obviously, most of them have to be wrong, but are you saying all of them are wrong?

    The rogue polls are those that disprove your current thesis. Whatever that is.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,308

    A real worry for LAB, I would argue, is if the blue team gets rid of Sunak who I regard as a huge liability.

    The only plausible alternatives in the HoC would be Penny Mordaunt or the return of strong and stable Theresa May. May would be quite a tricky opponent for Starmer.

    It would be hilarious if the Tories turned to a leader who could create a ten-point swing against themselves during an election campaign.

    It would be so funny I might die laughing.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 17,732
    Er ... losing my form ... 8th.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,420

    A real worry for LAB, I would argue, is if the blue team gets rid of Sunak who I regard as a huge liability.

    The only plausible alternatives in the HoC would be Penny Mordaunt or the return of strong and stable Theresa May. May would be quite a tricky opponent for Starmer.

    It would be hilarious if the Tories turned to a leader who could create a ten-point swing against themselves during an election campaign.

    It would be so funny I might die laughing.
    May was good at the theatre of politics so she could reframe things with a set piece speech and deploy her tough Home Office persona against the lefty lawyer Starmer.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,004

    It's in Labour's interests to maintain the 'too close to call' line right up to the election.

    No one wants to look arrogant or overconfident, but sometimes they can overdo it.

    Granted there are rare occasions where the campaign changes things, but are the ingredients really there for that? How artificial can things really be?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,420

    When you talk about, "what the polls are currently showing" what do you mean?

    Are you refering to a polling average? The largest Labour lead? The smallest Labour lead? A particular polling firm?

    In January alone we have polls with Labour shares in the range 39.5%-49% and Conservative shares in the range 20%-29%. Obviously, most of them have to be wrong, but are you saying all of them are wrong?

    The thesis is that there is currently a large chunk of 2019 Conservative voters who say they won't vote but will turn out when it comes down to it, so the polling lead is based on an incorrect assumption about differential turnout.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,902

    A real worry for LAB, I would argue, is if the blue team gets rid of Sunak who I regard as a huge liability.

    The only plausible alternatives in the HoC would be Penny Mordaunt or the return of strong and stable Theresa May. May would be quite a tricky opponent for Starmer.

    It would be hilarious if the Tories turned to a leader who could create a ten-point swing against themselves during an election campaign.

    It would be so funny I might die laughing.
    I'm struggling to think who, exactly, the Conservatives could turn to who would signficantly improve their share of the vote. The brand itself is Ratnered. The public have had 14 years and 5 Conservative prime ministers on which to base their judgement. Will a sixth change anything? Doubt.

    Would ditching John Major six months before the election of '97 have produced a different result? Or would the Conservatives have selected a voter-repellent headbanger who would have led them to even greater defeat?

    A long period in opposition beckons, whoever is at the helm. At this point, Sunak's job is simply to be the captain of the ship as it's going down.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 8,924
    I was browsing through the news today and came across a story in the Mirror regarding the US/Israel. As you might expect from the robustly left wing newspaper the stance was pretty critical of the two powers. They quoted an academic from King's College London, Dr Andreas Krieg, for their analysis. Being the inquisitive type I thought I would try and learn a bit more about Dr Krieg. The easiest, most straightforward way to do that is of course to look at his Twitter feed. I was in luck as Dr Krieg seems to be a very regular poster to the site. I read down his list of tweets going back over the last month.

    In short, Dr Krieg a senior lecturer in Security Studies at King's College London comes across as an anti-Israeli polemicist. He also finds time for criticism of the US, other western countries and perhaps most interestingly, the UAE. I couldn't really find any criticism of Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas or the Houthis. If there is a good guy in all of this, then according to Dr Krieg's twitter feed it would appear to be Qatar, the mediators between Israel and Hamas, the latter of who's leaders are conveniently located in Doha.

    The links between King's and Qatar have grown over the years. In 2014 KCL apparently took £26m to help train officers in the Qatari army. More recently there is the Qatar Centre For Global Banking and Finance at KCL. Given our reliance on the Universities and their political influence shouldn't we be paying a bit more attention to the foreign states funding them and the reasons they might be doing so? In life you get what you pay for.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,075

    When you talk about, "what the polls are currently showing" what do you mean?

    Are you refering to a polling average? The largest Labour lead? The smallest Labour lead? A particular polling firm?

    In January alone we have polls with Labour shares in the range 39.5%-49% and Conservative shares in the range 20%-29%. Obviously, most of them have to be wrong, but are you saying all of them are wrong?

    Polls, apart from the Curtice poll on the GE day, are hypothetical answers about a hypothetical situation, which at no point can be verified or falsified. The raw data of the poll is then adjusted to present a picture of 'what would happen if there were an election on this day' or some such formula, giving a further hypothetical.

    Polls at this stage are neither right nor wrong; they produce, adjust, present and analyse data, from which conclusions are drawn about future probabilities. The GE is now within the next year. Everyone will read the data in different ways. Black swans can occur at any time.

    I think Mike Smithson is right. Betting wise, NOM remains value.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,182
    Unusual to see the words "Sunak" and "huge" in the same sentence.

    The pollsters accounting for some form of swingback still show a healthy Labour lead, so it would need a double dose of swingback to make it anywhere near close.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 17,732
    Listening to the "How to Win an Election" podcast linked, about 5 minutes in Mrs Trellis of Llandudno has sent them a brilliant enquiry:

    'The podcast is filled with Danny Finkelstein telling us how everything he mentions will have no impact on an Election. Can someone please answer the question?"

    Deep link:
    https://youtu.be/vxXelBQSPkA?t=280
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    kyf_100 said:

    A real worry for LAB, I would argue, is if the blue team gets rid of Sunak who I regard as a huge liability.

    The only plausible alternatives in the HoC would be Penny Mordaunt or the return of strong and stable Theresa May. May would be quite a tricky opponent for Starmer.

    It would be hilarious if the Tories turned to a leader who could create a ten-point swing against themselves during an election campaign.

    It would be so funny I might die laughing.
    I'm struggling to think who, exactly, the Conservatives could turn to who would signficantly improve their share of the vote. The brand itself is Ratnered. The public have had 14 years and 5 Conservative prime ministers on which to base their judgement. Will a sixth change anything? Doubt.

    Would ditching John Major six months before the election of '97 have produced a different result? Or would the Conservatives have selected a voter-repellent headbanger who would have led them to even greater defeat?

    A long period in opposition beckons, whoever is at the helm. At this point, Sunak's job is simply to be the captain of the ship as it's going down.
    I think that a Tory minority, or even a small minority, government is very likely but I don’t think that will save Sunak.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 38,654
    edited January 30

    I was browsing through the news today and came across a story in the Mirror regarding the US/Israel. As you might expect from the robustly left wing newspaper the stance was pretty critical of the two powers. They quoted an academic from King's College London, Dr Andreas Krieg, for their analysis. Being the inquisitive type I thought I would try and learn a bit more about Dr Krieg. The easiest, most straightforward way to do that is of course to look at his Twitter feed. I was in luck as Dr Krieg seems to be a very regular poster to the site. I read down his list of tweets going back over the last month.

    In short, Dr Krieg a senior lecturer in Security Studies at King's College London comes across as an anti-Israeli polemicist. He also finds time for criticism of the US, other western countries and perhaps most interestingly, the UAE. I couldn't really find any criticism of Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas or the Houthis. If there is a good guy in all of this, then according to Dr Krieg's twitter feed it would appear to be Qatar, the mediators between Israel and Hamas, the latter of who's leaders are conveniently located in Doha.

    The links between King's and Qatar have grown over the years. In 2014 KCL apparently took £26m to help train officers in the Qatari army. More recently there is the Qatar Centre For Global Banking and Finance at KCL. Given our reliance on the Universities and their political influence shouldn't we be paying a bit more attention to the foreign states funding them and the reasons they might be doing so? In life you get what you pay for.

    ...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,695
    DougSeal said:

    kyf_100 said:

    A real worry for LAB, I would argue, is if the blue team gets rid of Sunak who I regard as a huge liability.

    The only plausible alternatives in the HoC would be Penny Mordaunt or the return of strong and stable Theresa May. May would be quite a tricky opponent for Starmer.

    It would be hilarious if the Tories turned to a leader who could create a ten-point swing against themselves during an election campaign.

    It would be so funny I might die laughing.
    I'm struggling to think who, exactly, the Conservatives could turn to who would signficantly improve their share of the vote. The brand itself is Ratnered. The public have had 14 years and 5 Conservative prime ministers on which to base their judgement. Will a sixth change anything? Doubt.

    Would ditching John Major six months before the election of '97 have produced a different result? Or would the Conservatives have selected a voter-repellent headbanger who would have led them to even greater defeat?

    A long period in opposition beckons, whoever is at the helm. At this point, Sunak's job is simply to be the captain of the ship as it's going down.
    I think that a Tory minority, or even a small minority, government is very likely but I don’t think that will save Sunak.
    You think a Tory government post election is above a 50-50 chance?
    Big call.
    Fill your boots you'll be loaded.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 17,809
    DougSeal said:

    kyf_100 said:

    A real worry for LAB, I would argue, is if the blue team gets rid of Sunak who I regard as a huge liability.

    The only plausible alternatives in the HoC would be Penny Mordaunt or the return of strong and stable Theresa May. May would be quite a tricky opponent for Starmer.

    It would be hilarious if the Tories turned to a leader who could create a ten-point swing against themselves during an election campaign.

    It would be so funny I might die laughing.
    I'm struggling to think who, exactly, the Conservatives could turn to who would signficantly improve their share of the vote. The brand itself is Ratnered. The public have had 14 years and 5 Conservative prime ministers on which to base their judgement. Will a sixth change anything? Doubt.

    Would ditching John Major six months before the election of '97 have produced a different result? Or would the Conservatives have selected a voter-repellent headbanger who would have led them to even greater defeat?

    A long period in opposition beckons, whoever is at the helm. At this point, Sunak's job is simply to be the captain of the ship as it's going down.
    I think that a Tory minority, or even a small minority, government is very likely but I don’t think that will save Sunak.
    If you are right it would be an epic prediction
  • ChrisChris Posts: 10,931
    DougSeal said:

    A real worry for LAB, I would argue, is if the blue team gets rid of Sunak who I regard as a huge liability.

    The only plausible alternatives in the HoC would be Penny Mordaunt or the return of strong and stable Theresa May. May would be quite a tricky opponent for Starmer.

    Truss would also make a big difference
    They should definitely go for one of Sunak's predecessors.

    It worked for Doctor Who.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,075

    I was browsing through the news today and came across a story in the Mirror regarding the US/Israel. As you might expect from the robustly left wing newspaper the stance was pretty critical of the two powers. They quoted an academic from King's College London, Dr Andreas Krieg, for their analysis. Being the inquisitive type I thought I would try and learn a bit more about Dr Krieg. The easiest, most straightforward way to do that is of course to look at his Twitter feed. I was in luck as Dr Krieg seems to be a very regular poster to the site. I read down his list of tweets going back over the last month.

    In short, Dr Krieg a senior lecturer in Security Studies at King's College London comes across as an anti-Israeli polemicist. He also finds time for criticism of the US, other western countries and perhaps most interestingly, the UAE. I couldn't really find any criticism of Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas or the Houthis. If there is a good guy in all of this, then according to Dr Krieg's twitter feed it would appear to be Qatar, the mediators between Israel and Hamas, the latter of who's leaders are conveniently located in Doha.

    The links between King's and Qatar have grown over the years. In 2014 KCL apparently took £26m to help train officers in the Qatari army. More recently there is the Qatar Centre For Global Banking and Finance at KCL. Given our reliance on the Universities and their political influence shouldn't we be paying a bit more attention to the foreign states funding them and the reasons they might be doing so? In life you get what you pay for.

    Yes. China too. Some universities are heavily invested.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,082
    I have been of the consistent view that LAB will do very well to exceed 40%. And they might get 'only' 38%. However the latter should be enough.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,796

    A real worry for LAB, I would argue, is if the blue team gets rid of Sunak who I regard as a huge liability.

    The only plausible alternatives in the HoC would be Penny Mordaunt or the return of strong and stable Theresa May. May would be quite a tricky opponent for Starmer.

    Indeed. A Starmer clone with a tiny bit more integrity.

    However as this Tory government is the most fractured and incompetent in my lifetime and quite obviously so I don't agree with the header at all. I'd expect this Tory government to get the biggest hammering since the war
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 60,480
    DougSeal said:

    A real worry for LAB, I would argue, is if the blue team gets rid of Sunak who I regard as a huge liability.

    The only plausible alternatives in the HoC would be Penny Mordaunt or the return of strong and stable Theresa May. May would be quite a tricky opponent for Starmer.

    Truss would also make a big difference
    Indeed she would; even more effective than May.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,902
    Roger said:

    A real worry for LAB, I would argue, is if the blue team gets rid of Sunak who I regard as a huge liability.

    The only plausible alternatives in the HoC would be Penny Mordaunt or the return of strong and stable Theresa May. May would be quite a tricky opponent for Starmer.

    Indeed. A Starmer clone with a tiny bit more integrity.

    However as this Tory government is the most fractured and incompetent in my lifetime and quite obviously so I don't agree with the header at all. I'd expect this Tory government to get the biggest hammering since the war
    Let's assume that Sunak goes or is pushed. There's no clear front runner, so it's not going to be a coronation. It took, what, 50ish days to elect Liz Truss. During which time the Conservatives appeared rudderless and self-absorbed. And then they elected Liz Truss.

    A messy leadership campaign right now will look navel gazing at best, at worst the public will get to see the entire party fighting like ferrets in a sack months before going to the polls. And, of course, they will likely to be going to the polls with a headbanger in charge, which might win them a few votes back from REFUK, but will utterly repel what's left of the centrist vote.

    All Starmer has to do at this point is not look scary to Conservative voters - someone they can live with. Not someone they can vote for, but someone who doesn't scare them so much they feel they have to vote for whatever slop the Conservatives offer. With the exception of VAT on private school fees, I think Starmer has played that game very well.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 17,732
    Ouch. Triple whammy.

    Scotland's former deputy first minister has told the UK Covid inquiry that he manually deleted messages sent to Nicola Sturgeon during the pandemic.

    John Swinney said the texts with the ex-first minister were "not available".

    The SNP MSP said they had been removed in line with his understanding of Scottish government records policy.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-68139104
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,075
    kle4 said:

    It's in Labour's interests to maintain the 'too close to call' line right up to the election.

    No one wants to look arrogant or overconfident, but sometimes they can overdo it.

    Granted there are rare occasions where the campaign changes things, but are the ingredients really there for that? How artificial can things really be?
    The electorate is volatile, as are the times in which we live. Labour have a number of ways in which they can screw up, and form for doing so. If I were in the party (which I am not) I would be worrying about: The Tory campaign consolidating Tories, Reform, Farageists, DKs and others around a populist agenda with special sweeteners; I would worry about Labour lacking a decent USP. I would worry about the left. I would worry about the electoral impact of migration policy. I would worry about low turnout from the centre. I would worry about the Islamic vote.

    I would be very surprised if this is not keeping them awake.

    I want Labour to win and will be pleased if they do enough to form a government with LD help without needing the SNP.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 13,743
    Lest we forget, the Daily Mail's front page on 1 May 1997;



    After all, if Peter Mandelson is saying "the polls could be wrong, Labour's lead could be artificial", isn't that a decent indication that the polls are probably right and Labour's lead is actually blooming huge?

    (And yes, they could be wrong, and the final result could be interestingly tight. But that doesn't just require a Conservative revival (when they clearly long for the sweet release of death/opposition), or a huge Labour choke (which isn't Starmer's style at all), or a polling fail that would mean that no opinion pollster could show their face in polite society again... But probably all three.)

    It's not over until the fat lady sings, sure, but someone has just marched past with a very big folder of vocal music.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 57,808
    edited January 30
    Watching newspaper commentators realise - to their utter amazement - that unis have been using foreign students to subside courses for years is hilarious.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,182
    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    It's in Labour's interests to maintain the 'too close to call' line right up to the election.

    No one wants to look arrogant or overconfident, but sometimes they can overdo it.

    Granted there are rare occasions where the campaign changes things, but are the ingredients really there for that? How artificial can things really be?
    The electorate is volatile, as are the times in which we live. Labour have a number of ways in which they can screw up, and form for doing so. If I were in the party (which I am not) I would be worrying about: The Tory campaign consolidating Tories, Reform, Farageists, DKs and others around a populist agenda with special sweeteners; I would worry about Labour lacking a decent USP. I would worry about the left. I would worry about the electoral impact of migration policy. I would worry about low turnout from the centre. I would worry about the Islamic vote.

    I would be very surprised if this is not keeping them awake.

    I want Labour to win and will be pleased if they do enough to form a government with LD help without needing the SNP.
    A Labour minority, where the LibDems can block some of the nonsense house building and New Town policies, wouldn't be so bad.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,729
    edited January 30
    So, we have an average 19 point Labour poll lead. I'd be amazed if we get a 19 point general election win, so, in that sense, Mike is right, and probably expressing a majority opinion. I don't think those Don't knows will return to the fold wholesale, but they are a pretty right- wing bunch and there will be some drift.

    The second piece is the thought that Labour need a large lead to get a majority, due to
    boundary changes and suchlike. As much as the exact size of the lead, the 5-6% range of leads that have been touted as granting Labour a majority, from around a 6% lead to around a 13% lead, is the nub of this problem.

    The classic demonstration of this is the two bits of news from earlier this month. The BBC UNS analysis that Labour needed a 12.7% swing (about a 13.5% lead) to gain a bare majority. Then the YouGov MRP the same week, that gave Labour a 120 majority on the same swing / lead.

    That's 60 seats difference for the same vote share lead.

    The truth is, it is not going to be anywhere near a pure Labour / Tory UNS election.

    In Scotland, a 12.7% UNS Labour-Tory swing, is merely a 6.3% swing against a, presumed static, SNP. In fact Labour is likely to get a bigger swing against the SNP than against the Tories. Reverse those two swing numbers and you're ball park for current polling. That's a lot more Labour seats for a smaller Con-Lab swing than UNS would predict.

    And we don't have to rely on the special case of Scotland either.

    We expect a smaller swing in London. That's OK for Labour, there aren't too many of target seats needing huge swings there. Small swing is useful. Likewise, Wales.

    But, now, that's 150 or so seats where we've said Con-Lab swing is quite a lot below average, but for which the lower swing will not damage Labour too badly.

    Which means the other seats, in the English regions, have to have a point of two bigger swing to get to the overall 12.7%. And, where do Labour need most of their massive Con-Lab swings? In the shires.

    Note, I have not made one mention of tactical voting.

    Regional swing should mean Labour substantially outperform UNS.


  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,833
    algarkirk said:

    I was browsing through the news today and came across a story in the Mirror regarding the US/Israel. As you might expect from the robustly left wing newspaper the stance was pretty critical of the two powers. They quoted an academic from King's College London, Dr Andreas Krieg, for their analysis. Being the inquisitive type I thought I would try and learn a bit more about Dr Krieg. The easiest, most straightforward way to do that is of course to look at his Twitter feed. I was in luck as Dr Krieg seems to be a very regular poster to the site. I read down his list of tweets going back over the last month.

    In short, Dr Krieg a senior lecturer in Security Studies at King's College London comes across as an anti-Israeli polemicist. He also finds time for criticism of the US, other western countries and perhaps most interestingly, the UAE. I couldn't really find any criticism of Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas or the Houthis. If there is a good guy in all of this, then according to Dr Krieg's twitter feed it would appear to be Qatar, the mediators between Israel and Hamas, the latter of who's leaders are conveniently located in Doha.

    The links between King's and Qatar have grown over the years. In 2014 KCL apparently took £26m to help train officers in the Qatari army. More recently there is the Qatar Centre For Global Banking and Finance at KCL. Given our reliance on the Universities and their political influence shouldn't we be paying a bit more attention to the foreign states funding them and the reasons they might be doing so? In life you get what you pay for.

    Yes. China too. Some universities are heavily invested.
    {LSE has entered the chat}

    British University Management Morality - "These are our values, our ethics, our principles. If you don't like them, we have others we can sell you. We'll quote you happy."
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 57,808
    Re: the header


    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    13h
    Kellner prefers polls that estimate what don’t knows will do (YouGov MRP, Opinium, Stonehaven), suggesting Labour lead of 13-15 points
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,096
    algarkirk said:

    I was browsing through the news today and came across a story in the Mirror regarding the US/Israel. As you might expect from the robustly left wing newspaper the stance was pretty critical of the two powers. They quoted an academic from King's College London, Dr Andreas Krieg, for their analysis. Being the inquisitive type I thought I would try and learn a bit more about Dr Krieg. The easiest, most straightforward way to do that is of course to look at his Twitter feed. I was in luck as Dr Krieg seems to be a very regular poster to the site. I read down his list of tweets going back over the last month.

    In short, Dr Krieg a senior lecturer in Security Studies at King's College London comes across as an anti-Israeli polemicist. He also finds time for criticism of the US, other western countries and perhaps most interestingly, the UAE. I couldn't really find any criticism of Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas or the Houthis. If there is a good guy in all of this, then according to Dr Krieg's twitter feed it would appear to be Qatar, the mediators between Israel and Hamas, the latter of who's leaders are conveniently located in Doha.

    The links between King's and Qatar have grown over the years. In 2014 KCL apparently took £26m to help train officers in the Qatari army. More recently there is the Qatar Centre For Global Banking and Finance at KCL. Given our reliance on the Universities and their political influence shouldn't we be paying a bit more attention to the foreign states funding them and the reasons they might be doing so? In life you get what you pay for.

    Yes. China too. Some universities are heavily invested.
    Hard to really 'buy' a university though. Academics are independent little buggers; I know of several who have simply switched university when management try to tell them what to do. Afterall, senior academics are self-funding on the whole, so they're attractive to other universities.

    Buying individual academics is far more possible. Fly them out on nice holidays conferences/meetings/workshops and fund their research and they might be more easily able to see your good side. Subtlety required though - they'd have to genuinely start to like you rather than be directly bribed.

    All that is just my experience in observing others. We academics tend to have quite well developed egos - telling us we're great and clever and important, so much so that you'd like to fund our research and have us as a speaker at your conference can go a long way.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,082

    algarkirk said:

    kle4 said:

    It's in Labour's interests to maintain the 'too close to call' line right up to the election.

    No one wants to look arrogant or overconfident, but sometimes they can overdo it.

    Granted there are rare occasions where the campaign changes things, but are the ingredients really there for that? How artificial can things really be?
    The electorate is volatile, as are the times in which we live. Labour have a number of ways in which they can screw up, and form for doing so. If I were in the party (which I am not) I would be worrying about: The Tory campaign consolidating Tories, Reform, Farageists, DKs and others around a populist agenda with special sweeteners; I would worry about Labour lacking a decent USP. I would worry about the left. I would worry about the electoral impact of migration policy. I would worry about low turnout from the centre. I would worry about the Islamic vote.

    I would be very surprised if this is not keeping them awake.

    I want Labour to win and will be pleased if they do enough to form a government with LD help without needing the SNP.
    A Labour minority, where the LibDems can block some of the nonsense house building and New Town policies, wouldn't be so bad.
    LAB with LD confidence and supply would be much more stable than LAB and SNP on a similar basis.

    LD might only get 15 - 20 seats but this could make all the difference.

    LAB 320 + LD 20 would be sufficient for a full term.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,308

    When you talk about, "what the polls are currently showing" what do you mean?

    Are you refering to a polling average? The largest Labour lead? The smallest Labour lead? A particular polling firm?

    In January alone we have polls with Labour shares in the range 39.5%-49% and Conservative shares in the range 20%-29%. Obviously, most of them have to be wrong, but are you saying all of them are wrong?

    The thesis is that there is currently a large chunk of 2019 Conservative voters who say they won't vote but will turn out when it comes down to it, so the polling lead is based on an incorrect assumption about differential turnout.
    Which polling lead? There is not a singular polling lead.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 13,743

    algarkirk said:

    I was browsing through the news today and came across a story in the Mirror regarding the US/Israel. As you might expect from the robustly left wing newspaper the stance was pretty critical of the two powers. They quoted an academic from King's College London, Dr Andreas Krieg, for their analysis. Being the inquisitive type I thought I would try and learn a bit more about Dr Krieg. The easiest, most straightforward way to do that is of course to look at his Twitter feed. I was in luck as Dr Krieg seems to be a very regular poster to the site. I read down his list of tweets going back over the last month.

    In short, Dr Krieg a senior lecturer in Security Studies at King's College London comes across as an anti-Israeli polemicist. He also finds time for criticism of the US, other western countries and perhaps most interestingly, the UAE. I couldn't really find any criticism of Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas or the Houthis. If there is a good guy in all of this, then according to Dr Krieg's twitter feed it would appear to be Qatar, the mediators between Israel and Hamas, the latter of who's leaders are conveniently located in Doha.

    The links between King's and Qatar have grown over the years. In 2014 KCL apparently took £26m to help train officers in the Qatari army. More recently there is the Qatar Centre For Global Banking and Finance at KCL. Given our reliance on the Universities and their political influence shouldn't we be paying a bit more attention to the foreign states funding them and the reasons they might be doing so? In life you get what you pay for.

    Yes. China too. Some universities are heavily invested.
    {LSE has entered the chat}

    British University Management Morality - "These are our values, our ethics, our principles. If you don't like them, we have others we can sell you. We'll quote you happy."
    Thing is, without all that (sometimes pretty dodgy) foreign money, univerisites would have to charge a viable cost to teach UK students, and neither students nor the government want that to happen.

    You know that line in web businesses about how if you don't pay for something then you're the product not the customer? Something similar applies in UK HE. Brit students are there in part to provide local colour for foreigners paying through the nose to study here.

    As with many of the UK's other problems, it's fixable, as long as we are prepared to pay more and get less... at least for a bit.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,865
    First a thread header about Ken Clarke, then one about Peter Mandelson.

    Have I fallen asleep and woken up in 1996?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,695
    Pro_Rata said:

    So, we have an average 19 point Labour poll lead. I'd be amazed if we get a 19 point general election win, so, in that sense, Mike is right, and probably expressing a majority opinion. I don't think those Don't knows will return to the fold wholesale, but they are a pretty right- wing bunch and there will be some drift.

    The second piece is the thought that Labour need a large lead to get a majority, due to
    boundary changes and suchlike. As much as the exact size of the lead, the 5-6% range of leads that have been touted as granting Labour a majority, from around a 6% lead to around a 13% lead, is the nub of this problem.

    The classic demonstration of this is the two bits of news from earlier this month. The BBC UNS analysis that Labour needed a 12.7% swing (about a 13.5% lead) to gain a bare majority. Then the YouGov MRP the same week, that gave Labour a 120 majority on the same swing / lead.

    That's 60 seats difference for the same vote share lead.

    The truth is, it is not going to be anywhere near a pure Labour / Tory UNS election.

    In Scotland, a 12.7% UNS Labour-Tory swing, is merely a 6.3% swing against a, presumed static, SNP. In fact Labour is likely to get a bigger swing against the SNP than against the Tories. Reverse those two swing numbers and you're ball park for current polling. That's a lot more Labour seats for a smaller Con-Lab swing than UNS would predict.

    And we don't have to rely on the special case of Scotland either.

    We expect a smaller swing in London. That's OK for Labour, there aren't too many of target seats needing huge swings there. Small swing is useful. Likewise, Wales.

    But, now, that's 150 or so seats where we've said Con-Lab swing is quite a lot below average, but for which the lower swing will not damage Labour too badly.

    Which means the other seats, in the English regions, have to have a point of two bigger swing to get to the overall 12.7%. And, where do Labour need most of their massive Con-Lab swings? In the shires.

    Note, I have not made one mention of tactical voting.

    Regional swing should mean Labour substantially outperform UNS.


    The Tory vote compared to Labour's since 2015 has been super efficient, mainly due to Scotland and the Southwest.
    It is difficult to imagine the scenario in which the Tory advantage on the front is increased.
    There are multiple plausible regional possibilities in which it can be lessened.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,532
    Selebian said:

    algarkirk said:

    I was browsing through the news today and came across a story in the Mirror regarding the US/Israel. As you might expect from the robustly left wing newspaper the stance was pretty critical of the two powers. They quoted an academic from King's College London, Dr Andreas Krieg, for their analysis. Being the inquisitive type I thought I would try and learn a bit more about Dr Krieg. The easiest, most straightforward way to do that is of course to look at his Twitter feed. I was in luck as Dr Krieg seems to be a very regular poster to the site. I read down his list of tweets going back over the last month.

    In short, Dr Krieg a senior lecturer in Security Studies at King's College London comes across as an anti-Israeli polemicist. He also finds time for criticism of the US, other western countries and perhaps most interestingly, the UAE. I couldn't really find any criticism of Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas or the Houthis. If there is a good guy in all of this, then according to Dr Krieg's twitter feed it would appear to be Qatar, the mediators between Israel and Hamas, the latter of who's leaders are conveniently located in Doha.

    The links between King's and Qatar have grown over the years. In 2014 KCL apparently took £26m to help train officers in the Qatari army. More recently there is the Qatar Centre For Global Banking and Finance at KCL. Given our reliance on the Universities and their political influence shouldn't we be paying a bit more attention to the foreign states funding them and the reasons they might be doing so? In life you get what you pay for.

    Yes. China too. Some universities are heavily invested.
    Hard to really 'buy' a university though. Academics are independent little buggers; I know of several who have simply switched university when management try to tell them what to do. Afterall, senior academics are self-funding on the whole, so they're attractive to other universities.

    Buying individual academics is far more possible. Fly them out on nice holidays conferences/meetings/workshops and fund their research and they might be more easily able to see your good side. Subtlety required though - they'd have to genuinely start to like you rather than be directly bribed.

    All that is just my experience in observing others. We academics tend to have quite well developed egos - telling us we're great and clever and important, so much so that you'd like to fund our research and have us as a speaker at your conference can go a long way.
    Academics have egos in my experience far in excess of their actual worth.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,308
    FWIW, I think that the main overlooked factor is the potential for targeted online advertising to swing the election with dirty tricks during an election campaign.

    Not nearly enough attention has been paid to the targeted online advertising during the 2019GE.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,420

    When you talk about, "what the polls are currently showing" what do you mean?

    Are you refering to a polling average? The largest Labour lead? The smallest Labour lead? A particular polling firm?

    In January alone we have polls with Labour shares in the range 39.5%-49% and Conservative shares in the range 20%-29%. Obviously, most of them have to be wrong, but are you saying all of them are wrong?

    The thesis is that there is currently a large chunk of 2019 Conservative voters who say they won't vote but will turn out when it comes down to it, so the polling lead is based on an incorrect assumption about differential turnout.
    Which polling lead? There is not a singular polling lead.
    If the theory is right then it would be replicated in all of them. It’s a prediction about how the lost 2019 Tory voters will behave when we get to a real election.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,695
    Sigh. Everton back in bottom three.
    Spurs and City up next...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 60,480
    in a court filing, Hunter Biden’s lawyer brings up what
    @emptywheel uncovered with her letter to the court: that Weiss didn’t obtain a search warrant for firearms offenses until THREE MONTHS after the indictment.

    https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1752433818521501709
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 17,809

    When you talk about, "what the polls are currently showing" what do you mean?

    Are you refering to a polling average? The largest Labour lead? The smallest Labour lead? A particular polling firm?

    In January alone we have polls with Labour shares in the range 39.5%-49% and Conservative shares in the range 20%-29%. Obviously, most of them have to be wrong, but are you saying all of them are wrong?

    The rogue polls are those that disprove your current thesis. Whatever that is.
    And the ones that are painted red are the rouge polls.

    Ah, my coat. So kind.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,096
    Pagan2 said:

    Selebian said:

    algarkirk said:

    I was browsing through the news today and came across a story in the Mirror regarding the US/Israel. As you might expect from the robustly left wing newspaper the stance was pretty critical of the two powers. They quoted an academic from King's College London, Dr Andreas Krieg, for their analysis. Being the inquisitive type I thought I would try and learn a bit more about Dr Krieg. The easiest, most straightforward way to do that is of course to look at his Twitter feed. I was in luck as Dr Krieg seems to be a very regular poster to the site. I read down his list of tweets going back over the last month.

    In short, Dr Krieg a senior lecturer in Security Studies at King's College London comes across as an anti-Israeli polemicist. He also finds time for criticism of the US, other western countries and perhaps most interestingly, the UAE. I couldn't really find any criticism of Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas or the Houthis. If there is a good guy in all of this, then according to Dr Krieg's twitter feed it would appear to be Qatar, the mediators between Israel and Hamas, the latter of who's leaders are conveniently located in Doha.

    The links between King's and Qatar have grown over the years. In 2014 KCL apparently took £26m to help train officers in the Qatari army. More recently there is the Qatar Centre For Global Banking and Finance at KCL. Given our reliance on the Universities and their political influence shouldn't we be paying a bit more attention to the foreign states funding them and the reasons they might be doing so? In life you get what you pay for.

    Yes. China too. Some universities are heavily invested.
    Hard to really 'buy' a university though. Academics are independent little buggers; I know of several who have simply switched university when management try to tell them what to do. Afterall, senior academics are self-funding on the whole, so they're attractive to other universities.

    Buying individual academics is far more possible. Fly them out on nice holidays conferences/meetings/workshops and fund their research and they might be more easily able to see your good side. Subtlety required though - they'd have to genuinely start to like you rather than be directly bribed.

    All that is just my experience in observing others. We academics tend to have quite well developed egos - telling us we're great and clever and important, so much so that you'd like to fund our research and have us as a speaker at your conference can go a long way.
    Academics have egos in my experience far in excess of their actual worth.
    Some.

    It's a mix, in my experience. There are plenty of egotistical senior scientists. But also plenty of very humble (and brilliant) ones. I've worked with both. Some of the ones with big egos are also brilliant, which makes it tricky. But my favourites are the ones without the big egos, those who are much more interested in the study/discovery than the profile.

    I'm clearly humble. And brilliant. And modest, like TSE :wink:
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,532
    Selebian said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Selebian said:

    algarkirk said:

    I was browsing through the news today and came across a story in the Mirror regarding the US/Israel. As you might expect from the robustly left wing newspaper the stance was pretty critical of the two powers. They quoted an academic from King's College London, Dr Andreas Krieg, for their analysis. Being the inquisitive type I thought I would try and learn a bit more about Dr Krieg. The easiest, most straightforward way to do that is of course to look at his Twitter feed. I was in luck as Dr Krieg seems to be a very regular poster to the site. I read down his list of tweets going back over the last month.

    In short, Dr Krieg a senior lecturer in Security Studies at King's College London comes across as an anti-Israeli polemicist. He also finds time for criticism of the US, other western countries and perhaps most interestingly, the UAE. I couldn't really find any criticism of Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas or the Houthis. If there is a good guy in all of this, then according to Dr Krieg's twitter feed it would appear to be Qatar, the mediators between Israel and Hamas, the latter of who's leaders are conveniently located in Doha.

    The links between King's and Qatar have grown over the years. In 2014 KCL apparently took £26m to help train officers in the Qatari army. More recently there is the Qatar Centre For Global Banking and Finance at KCL. Given our reliance on the Universities and their political influence shouldn't we be paying a bit more attention to the foreign states funding them and the reasons they might be doing so? In life you get what you pay for.

    Yes. China too. Some universities are heavily invested.
    Hard to really 'buy' a university though. Academics are independent little buggers; I know of several who have simply switched university when management try to tell them what to do. Afterall, senior academics are self-funding on the whole, so they're attractive to other universities.

    Buying individual academics is far more possible. Fly them out on nice holidays conferences/meetings/workshops and fund their research and they might be more easily able to see your good side. Subtlety required though - they'd have to genuinely start to like you rather than be directly bribed.

    All that is just my experience in observing others. We academics tend to have quite well developed egos - telling us we're great and clever and important, so much so that you'd like to fund our research and have us as a speaker at your conference can go a long way.
    Academics have egos in my experience far in excess of their actual worth.
    Some.

    It's a mix, in my experience. There are plenty of egotistical senior scientists. But also plenty of very humble (and brilliant) ones. I've worked with both. Some of the ones with big egos are also brilliant, which makes it tricky. But my favourites are the ones without the big egos, those who are much more interested in the study/discovery than the profile.

    I'm clearly humble. And brilliant. And modest, like TSE :wink:
    There are undoubtedly academics that have made our lives better, einstein, crick, etc....however most academics are pygmies standing on the shoulders of giants tbh
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 57,808
    David Frum
    @davidfrum
    ·
    7h
    Countdown begun to the House Republican impeachment of Taylor Swift.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,310
    If the Tories can squeeze DKs and Reform voters they can certainly narrow Starmer's majority, maybe even get a hung parliament but Labour will still likely comfortably win most seats.

    OGH I see from spending 2021-22 saying the Tories must get rid of Boris and replace him with Rishi is now saying the Tories should get rid of Rishi too? Does he really think Badenoch or Braverman are going to lead to a surge in Conservative support? Mordaunt might make a fractional difference but no more than that
  • TimSTimS Posts: 8,669
    Mandelson has been advising Labour and instilling a paranoia in them about message discipline and not making themselves a target for Tory attacks.

    But more than that I understand they are terrified of repeating what their close sibling the Australian Labour Party managed in 2019 to turn a big polling lead against an unpopular liberal party into a shock general election loss. I think the Australian experience, combined with the memories of the huge swing in Tory fortunes during 2019, is driving an absolute terror of failure.

    Conversely you can sense the opposite emotion among Tories. For all the wailing and gnashing of teeth you can sense an innate confidence, expectation even, in the declarations that if only they could replace their current leader they would of course retake their rightful place as the natural party of government.

    Unfortunately I think the Labour paranoia may come back to bite them in the end. They need to convey at least a modicum of confidence and purpose, otherwise why bother to vote for them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,004

    algarkirk said:

    I was browsing through the news today and came across a story in the Mirror regarding the US/Israel. As you might expect from the robustly left wing newspaper the stance was pretty critical of the two powers. They quoted an academic from King's College London, Dr Andreas Krieg, for their analysis. Being the inquisitive type I thought I would try and learn a bit more about Dr Krieg. The easiest, most straightforward way to do that is of course to look at his Twitter feed. I was in luck as Dr Krieg seems to be a very regular poster to the site. I read down his list of tweets going back over the last month.

    In short, Dr Krieg a senior lecturer in Security Studies at King's College London comes across as an anti-Israeli polemicist. He also finds time for criticism of the US, other western countries and perhaps most interestingly, the UAE. I couldn't really find any criticism of Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas or the Houthis. If there is a good guy in all of this, then according to Dr Krieg's twitter feed it would appear to be Qatar, the mediators between Israel and Hamas, the latter of who's leaders are conveniently located in Doha.

    The links between King's and Qatar have grown over the years. In 2014 KCL apparently took £26m to help train officers in the Qatari army. More recently there is the Qatar Centre For Global Banking and Finance at KCL. Given our reliance on the Universities and their political influence shouldn't we be paying a bit more attention to the foreign states funding them and the reasons they might be doing so? In life you get what you pay for.

    Yes. China too. Some universities are heavily invested.
    {LSE has entered the chat}

    British University Management Morality - "These are our values, our ethics, our principles. If you don't like them, we have others we can sell you. We'll quote you happy."
    Thing is, without all that (sometimes pretty dodgy) foreign money, univerisites would have to charge a viable cost to teach UK students, and neither students nor the government want that to happen.

    You know that line in web businesses about how if you don't pay for something then you're the product not the customer? Something similar applies in UK HE. Brit students are there in part to provide local colour for foreigners paying through the nose to study here.

    As with many of the UK's other problems, it's fixable, as long as we are prepared to pay more and get less... at least for a bit.
    Pay more get less does appear to be a great summary of an awful lot of things right now, without appearing to have fixed things though.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 17,809
    Pagan2 said:

    Selebian said:

    algarkirk said:

    I was browsing through the news today and came across a story in the Mirror regarding the US/Israel. As you might expect from the robustly left wing newspaper the stance was pretty critical of the two powers. They quoted an academic from King's College London, Dr Andreas Krieg, for their analysis. Being the inquisitive type I thought I would try and learn a bit more about Dr Krieg. The easiest, most straightforward way to do that is of course to look at his Twitter feed. I was in luck as Dr Krieg seems to be a very regular poster to the site. I read down his list of tweets going back over the last month.

    In short, Dr Krieg a senior lecturer in Security Studies at King's College London comes across as an anti-Israeli polemicist. He also finds time for criticism of the US, other western countries and perhaps most interestingly, the UAE. I couldn't really find any criticism of Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas or the Houthis. If there is a good guy in all of this, then according to Dr Krieg's twitter feed it would appear to be Qatar, the mediators between Israel and Hamas, the latter of who's leaders are conveniently located in Doha.

    The links between King's and Qatar have grown over the years. In 2014 KCL apparently took £26m to help train officers in the Qatari army. More recently there is the Qatar Centre For Global Banking and Finance at KCL. Given our reliance on the Universities and their political influence shouldn't we be paying a bit more attention to the foreign states funding them and the reasons they might be doing so? In life you get what you pay for.

    Yes. China too. Some universities are heavily invested.
    Hard to really 'buy' a university though. Academics are independent little buggers; I know of several who have simply switched university when management try to tell them what to do. Afterall, senior academics are self-funding on the whole, so they're attractive to other universities.

    Buying individual academics is far more possible. Fly them out on nice holidays conferences/meetings/workshops and fund their research and they might be more easily able to see your good side. Subtlety required though - they'd have to genuinely start to like you rather than be directly bribed.

    All that is just my experience in observing others. We academics tend to have quite well developed egos - telling us we're great and clever and important, so much so that you'd like to fund our research and have us as a speaker at your conference can go a long way.
    Academics have egos in my experience far in excess of their actual worth.
    But the ones who employ statisticians are lovely and wonderful and a credit to their profession. And have a fine singing voice.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,591

    I have been of the consistent view that LAB will do very well to exceed 40%. And they might get 'only' 38%. However the latter should be enough.

    Even Corbyn got 40% in 2017
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,833
    a
    kle4 said:

    algarkirk said:

    I was browsing through the news today and came across a story in the Mirror regarding the US/Israel. As you might expect from the robustly left wing newspaper the stance was pretty critical of the two powers. They quoted an academic from King's College London, Dr Andreas Krieg, for their analysis. Being the inquisitive type I thought I would try and learn a bit more about Dr Krieg. The easiest, most straightforward way to do that is of course to look at his Twitter feed. I was in luck as Dr Krieg seems to be a very regular poster to the site. I read down his list of tweets going back over the last month.

    In short, Dr Krieg a senior lecturer in Security Studies at King's College London comes across as an anti-Israeli polemicist. He also finds time for criticism of the US, other western countries and perhaps most interestingly, the UAE. I couldn't really find any criticism of Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas or the Houthis. If there is a good guy in all of this, then according to Dr Krieg's twitter feed it would appear to be Qatar, the mediators between Israel and Hamas, the latter of who's leaders are conveniently located in Doha.

    The links between King's and Qatar have grown over the years. In 2014 KCL apparently took £26m to help train officers in the Qatari army. More recently there is the Qatar Centre For Global Banking and Finance at KCL. Given our reliance on the Universities and their political influence shouldn't we be paying a bit more attention to the foreign states funding them and the reasons they might be doing so? In life you get what you pay for.

    Yes. China too. Some universities are heavily invested.
    {LSE has entered the chat}

    British University Management Morality - "These are our values, our ethics, our principles. If you don't like them, we have others we can sell you. We'll quote you happy."
    Thing is, without all that (sometimes pretty dodgy) foreign money, univerisites would have to charge a viable cost to teach UK students, and neither students nor the government want that to happen.

    You know that line in web businesses about how if you don't pay for something then you're the product not the customer? Something similar applies in UK HE. Brit students are there in part to provide local colour for foreigners paying through the nose to study here.

    As with many of the UK's other problems, it's fixable, as long as we are prepared to pay more and get less... at least for a bit.
    Pay more get less does appear to be a great summary of an awful lot of things right now, without appearing to have fixed things though.
    Incoming header....
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,565
    I predicted a 25-seat Lab majority in the PB competition.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 17,809
    edited January 30

    a

    kle4 said:

    algarkirk said:

    I was browsing through the news today and came across a story in the Mirror regarding the US/Israel. As you might expect from the robustly left wing newspaper the stance was pretty critical of the two powers. They quoted an academic from King's College London, Dr Andreas Krieg, for their analysis. Being the inquisitive type I thought I would try and learn a bit more about Dr Krieg. The easiest, most straightforward way to do that is of course to look at his Twitter feed. I was in luck as Dr Krieg seems to be a very regular poster to the site. I read down his list of tweets going back over the last month.

    In short, Dr Krieg a senior lecturer in Security Studies at King's College London comes across as an anti-Israeli polemicist. He also finds time for criticism of the US, other western countries and perhaps most interestingly, the UAE. I couldn't really find any criticism of Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas or the Houthis. If there is a good guy in all of this, then according to Dr Krieg's twitter feed it would appear to be Qatar, the mediators between Israel and Hamas, the latter of who's leaders are conveniently located in Doha.

    The links between King's and Qatar have grown over the years. In 2014 KCL apparently took £26m to help train officers in the Qatari army. More recently there is the Qatar Centre For Global Banking and Finance at KCL. Given our reliance on the Universities and their political influence shouldn't we be paying a bit more attention to the foreign states funding them and the reasons they might be doing so? In life you get what you pay for.

    Yes. China too. Some universities are heavily invested.
    {LSE has entered the chat}

    British University Management Morality - "These are our values, our ethics, our principles. If you don't like them, we have others we can sell you. We'll quote you happy."
    Thing is, without all that (sometimes pretty dodgy) foreign money, univerisites would have to charge a viable cost to teach UK students, and neither students nor the government want that to happen.

    You know that line in web businesses about how if you don't pay for something then you're the product not the customer? Something similar applies in UK HE. Brit students are there in part to provide local colour for foreigners paying through the nose to study here.

    As with many of the UK's other problems, it's fixable, as long as we are prepared to pay more and get less... at least for a bit.
    Pay more get less does appear to be a great summary of an awful lot of things right now, without appearing to have fixed things though.
    Incoming header....
    Would it involve a phrase with the digits "10" and "K" by any chance? 😃
  • Pro_Rata said:

    So, we have an average 19 point Labour poll lead. I'd be amazed if we get a 19 point general election win, so, in that sense, Mike is right, and probably expressing a majority opinion. I don't think those Don't knows will return to the fold wholesale, but they are a pretty right- wing bunch and there will be some drift.

    The second piece is the thought that Labour need a large lead to get a majority, due to
    boundary changes and suchlike. As much as the exact size of the lead, the 5-6% range of leads that have been touted as granting Labour a majority, from around a 6% lead to around a 13% lead, is the nub of this problem.

    The classic demonstration of this is the two bits of news from earlier this month. The BBC UNS analysis that Labour needed a 12.7% swing (about a 13.5% lead) to gain a bare majority. Then the YouGov MRP the same week, that gave Labour a 120 majority on the same swing / lead.

    That's 60 seats difference for the same vote share lead.

    The truth is, it is not going to be anywhere near a pure Labour / Tory UNS election.

    In Scotland, a 12.7% UNS Labour-Tory swing, is merely a 6.3% swing against a, presumed static, SNP. In fact Labour is likely to get a bigger swing against the SNP than against the Tories. Reverse those two swing numbers and you're ball park for current polling. That's a lot more Labour seats for a smaller Con-Lab swing than UNS would predict.

    And we don't have to rely on the special case of Scotland either.

    We expect a smaller swing in London. That's OK for Labour, there aren't too many of target seats needing huge swings there. Small swing is useful. Likewise, Wales.

    But, now, that's 150 or so seats where we've said Con-Lab swing is quite a lot below average, but for which the lower swing will not damage Labour too badly.

    Which means the other seats, in the English regions, have to have a point of two bigger swing to get to the overall 12.7%. And, where do Labour need most of their massive Con-Lab swings? In the shires.

    Note, I have not made one mention of tactical voting.

    Regional swing should mean Labour substantially outperform UNS.


    I think the other danger to Lab is leaking votes to Greens/Corbynites. In recent elections, Lab have been good at squeezing down the Greens, but if everyone thinks that Lab is nailed on then they may start leaking votes. In particular, Lab's issue will be the manifesto. If they offer big ticket items then they risk getting clobbered on fiscal responsibility, but if they don't then they risk leaking votes on the left (parties like the Greens won't have to worry about fiscal responsibility.

    Australia 22 is interesting that Labor gained seats from the Coalition but lost a few to the Greens.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 60,480
    LOL
    They can’t even lie properly.

    Rep. Salazar is pressed on CBS Miami why she’s taking credit for cash to her district from bills she voted against, like CHIPS & Science & infrastructure.

    She doesn’t recall how she voted.

    “I need to ask my staff.”

    “I cannot really remember right now.”

    https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1752130654152573236
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,420
    Nicola Sturgeon and Jeane Freeman purchased 'burner' phones at start of 2020 Covid lockdown

    https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-jeane-freeman-purchased-32005597

    On Thursday, March 19, 2020, Ms Sturgeon purchased a Nokia mobile phone from Amazon for £18.16. Devices available for a similar price are 2G only, although texts, WhatsApps and emails should still go through without any large attachments. The then first minister also purchased £18 worth of SIM card top-ups.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 60,480
    Nigelb said:

    LOL
    They can’t even lie properly.

    Rep. Salazar is pressed on CBS Miami why she’s taking credit for cash to her district from bills she voted against, like CHIPS & Science & infrastructure.

    She doesn’t recall how she voted.

    “I need to ask my staff.”

    “I cannot really remember right now.”

    https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1752130654152573236

    @SenSchumer on @RepMariaSalazar: "I hope she'll give me a pat on the back" for authoring CHIPS.

    "This is going to be a pattern.. Without any accomplishments of their own, Republicans in the House & Senate will try to take credit for jobs & investments they opposed in Congress."

    https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1752447454354575375
  • The tories troubles have nothing to do with this or that leader. It s the tory party itself. People know it is unreadable. You have no clue what you are voting for. There are at least4-5 different factions that all loathe each other's. Centrists and radical populists, rejoiners and brexiteers. And even internally in any one group there are deep animosity. Take the My versus Gove cults towards the middle. The libertarian truss brexiteers who want open immigration and the blood and soil Braverman types who hate immigration of any kind. It is impossible for ANY LEADER to mount a meaningful campaign and stay on message. I am surprised that this article will take such a simplistic view of party politics as to say that it is just a question of finding the right leader.... there is no leader for this party and that is the point. No matter which side of the party any prospective leader goes with they will lose the voters going for the other side of the party. And once again, I have to say, for a page on political betting, there is a constant tendency for magical and wishful thinking relating to the tories. Let me put it in simple terms: it is over for this iteration of the conservatives. Their platform was a contract with the home owning boomer segment. For many decades the largest demographic voting block in the UK. But in 2018 the eu loving, generation rent millenials who have been ridiculed by the conservatives all their lives became the biggest voting block.... and the boomers are in terminal decline. The right won't be back till it can find a way to appeal to the millenials again. That will take 2-3 terms as the last boomers phase out and stop splitting the vote.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,565

    I have been of the consistent view that LAB will do very well to exceed 40%. And they might get 'only' 38%. However the latter should be enough.

    Even Corbyn got 40% in 2017
    But the Tories got 42% that year.
  • O/T, I see Lord Cameron has been stirring the pot again with his comments on recognising a Palestinian state.

    I really do not know what people see in him. I dealt with him when he was Investor Relations at Carlton TV and he was totally useless and thick as pig sh1t. He was a laughing stock amongst the financial community for just how clueless he was.

    Mind you, I guess since his best mate Georgie-O is best mates with the UAE and helping them with the Telegraph bid so maybe some favours are being called in....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,310

    Pro_Rata said:

    So, we have an average 19 point Labour poll lead. I'd be amazed if we get a 19 point general election win, so, in that sense, Mike is right, and probably expressing a majority opinion. I don't think those Don't knows will return to the fold wholesale, but they are a pretty right- wing bunch and there will be some drift.

    The second piece is the thought that Labour need a large lead to get a majority, due to
    boundary changes and suchlike. As much as the exact size of the lead, the 5-6% range of leads that have been touted as granting Labour a majority, from around a 6% lead to around a 13% lead, is the nub of this problem.

    The classic demonstration of this is the two bits of news from earlier this month. The BBC UNS analysis that Labour needed a 12.7% swing (about a 13.5% lead) to gain a bare majority. Then the YouGov MRP the same week, that gave Labour a 120 majority on the same swing / lead.

    That's 60 seats difference for the same vote share lead.

    The truth is, it is not going to be anywhere near a pure Labour / Tory UNS election.

    In Scotland, a 12.7% UNS Labour-Tory swing, is merely a 6.3% swing against a, presumed static, SNP. In fact Labour is likely to get a bigger swing against the SNP than against the Tories. Reverse those two swing numbers and you're ball park for current polling. That's a lot more Labour seats for a smaller Con-Lab swing than UNS would predict.

    And we don't have to rely on the special case of Scotland either.

    We expect a smaller swing in London. That's OK for Labour, there aren't too many of target seats needing huge swings there. Small swing is useful. Likewise, Wales.

    But, now, that's 150 or so seats where we've said Con-Lab swing is quite a lot below average, but for which the lower swing will not damage Labour too badly.

    Which means the other seats, in the English regions, have to have a point of two bigger swing to get to the overall 12.7%. And, where do Labour need most of their massive Con-Lab swings? In the shires.

    Note, I have not made one mention of tactical voting.

    Regional swing should mean Labour substantially outperform UNS.


    I think the other danger to Lab is leaking votes to Greens/Corbynites. In recent elections, Lab have been good at squeezing down the Greens, but if everyone thinks that Lab is nailed on then they may start leaking votes. In particular, Lab's issue will be the manifesto. If they offer big ticket items then they risk getting clobbered on fiscal responsibility, but if they don't then they risk leaking votes on the left (parties like the Greens won't have to worry about fiscal responsibility.

    Australia 22 is interesting that Labor gained seats from the Coalition but lost a few to the Greens.
    According to Yougov the Greens are second to Labour now with under 30s, the Conservatives only lead with over 70s

    https://x.com/YouGov/status/1752281508037918993?s=20
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,504
    edited January 30
    Fucking hell.

    Sack every police officer and start all over again.

    Police officers made "sickening" comments about an assault victim while watching body-worn video showing her groin, the BBC has learned.

    The woman's body was exposed when she was filmed suffering from a seizure. Three Thames Valley Police PCs later watched the footage without reason.

    None of the officers faced a misconduct hearing but a student officer who reported them was later dismissed.

    The force says the remarks were "unacceptable" and PCs were sanctioned.

    The policing regulator says Thames Valley Police should have reported the case for independent scrutiny. The force has now done so, following our investigation.

    Last year the BBC revealed that police forces have misused body-worn video, with officers switching off cameras, deleting footage and sharing videos on WhatsApp.

    In our latest investigation we found:

    The vulnerable woman was arrested and placed in leg restraints before being recorded on body-worn video while vomiting and losing consciousness

    Officers watching the footage insulted her looks, used derogatory language about her genitals and discussed what they would need to be paid to sleep with her

    The 22-year-old woman told the BBC she feels "betrayed" and believes officers should have been arrested

    The student officer who reported his colleagues says the force covered up the incident, failing to inform the woman or the policing regulator about what happened


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67958136
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,796

    I was browsing through the news today and came across a story in the Mirror regarding the US/Israel. As you might expect from the robustly left wing newspaper the stance was pretty critical of the two powers. They quoted an academic from King's College London, Dr Andreas Krieg, for their analysis. Being the inquisitive type I thought I would try and learn a bit more about Dr Krieg. The easiest, most straightforward way to do that is of course to look at his Twitter feed. I was in luck as Dr Krieg seems to be a very regular poster to the site. I read down his list of tweets going back over the last month.

    In short, Dr Krieg a senior lecturer in Security Studies at King's College London comes across as an anti-Israeli polemicist. He also finds time for criticism of the US, other western countries and perhaps most interestingly, the UAE. I couldn't really find any criticism of Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas or the Houthis. If there is a good guy in all of this, then according to Dr Krieg's twitter feed it would appear to be Qatar, the mediators between Israel and Hamas, the latter of who's leaders are conveniently located in Doha.

    The links between King's and Qatar have grown over the years. In 2014 KCL apparently took £26m to help train officers in the Qatari army. More recently there is the Qatar Centre For Global Banking and Finance at KCL. Given our reliance on the Universities and their political influence shouldn't we be paying a bit more attention to the foreign states funding them and the reasons they might be doing so? In life you get what you pay for.

    If you look at most twitter feeds over the last months you'll find they are anti Israel. They've been behaving like savages.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,833
    viewcode said:

    a

    kle4 said:

    algarkirk said:

    I was browsing through the news today and came across a story in the Mirror regarding the US/Israel. As you might expect from the robustly left wing newspaper the stance was pretty critical of the two powers. They quoted an academic from King's College London, Dr Andreas Krieg, for their analysis. Being the inquisitive type I thought I would try and learn a bit more about Dr Krieg. The easiest, most straightforward way to do that is of course to look at his Twitter feed. I was in luck as Dr Krieg seems to be a very regular poster to the site. I read down his list of tweets going back over the last month.

    In short, Dr Krieg a senior lecturer in Security Studies at King's College London comes across as an anti-Israeli polemicist. He also finds time for criticism of the US, other western countries and perhaps most interestingly, the UAE. I couldn't really find any criticism of Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas or the Houthis. If there is a good guy in all of this, then according to Dr Krieg's twitter feed it would appear to be Qatar, the mediators between Israel and Hamas, the latter of who's leaders are conveniently located in Doha.

    The links between King's and Qatar have grown over the years. In 2014 KCL apparently took £26m to help train officers in the Qatari army. More recently there is the Qatar Centre For Global Banking and Finance at KCL. Given our reliance on the Universities and their political influence shouldn't we be paying a bit more attention to the foreign states funding them and the reasons they might be doing so? In life you get what you pay for.

    Yes. China too. Some universities are heavily invested.
    {LSE has entered the chat}

    British University Management Morality - "These are our values, our ethics, our principles. If you don't like them, we have others we can sell you. We'll quote you happy."
    Thing is, without all that (sometimes pretty dodgy) foreign money, univerisites would have to charge a viable cost to teach UK students, and neither students nor the government want that to happen.

    You know that line in web businesses about how if you don't pay for something then you're the product not the customer? Something similar applies in UK HE. Brit students are there in part to provide local colour for foreigners paying through the nose to study here.

    As with many of the UK's other problems, it's fixable, as long as we are prepared to pay more and get less... at least for a bit.
    Pay more get less does appear to be a great summary of an awful lot of things right now, without appearing to have fixed things though.
    Incoming header....
    Would it involve a phrase with the digits "10" and "K" by any chance? 😃
    No. It could be said to be a side symptom of that problem, though, I suppose.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 17,809
    DougSeal said:

    A real worry for LAB, I would argue, is if the blue team gets rid of Sunak who I regard as a huge liability.

    The only plausible alternatives in the HoC would be Penny Mordaunt or the return of strong and stable Theresa May. May would be quite a tricky opponent for Starmer.

    Truss would also make a big difference
    She certainly would. One best viewed from a distant bunker.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,833

    Nicola Sturgeon and Jeane Freeman purchased 'burner' phones at start of 2020 Covid lockdown

    https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-jeane-freeman-purchased-32005597

    On Thursday, March 19, 2020, Ms Sturgeon purchased a Nokia mobile phone from Amazon for £18.16. Devices available for a similar price are 2G only, although texts, WhatsApps and emails should still go through without any large attachments. The then first minister also purchased £18 worth of SIM card top-ups.

    That drawer full of burners that Jax had in Sons of Anarchy.... all the flip phones.....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,833
    viewcode said:

    DougSeal said:

    A real worry for LAB, I would argue, is if the blue team gets rid of Sunak who I regard as a huge liability.

    The only plausible alternatives in the HoC would be Penny Mordaunt or the return of strong and stable Theresa May. May would be quite a tricky opponent for Starmer.

    Truss would also make a big difference
    She certainly would. One best viewed from a distant bunker.
    Even the best bunkers....

    image
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,310

    O/T, I see Lord Cameron has been stirring the pot again with his comments on recognising a Palestinian state.

    I really do not know what people see in him. I dealt with him when he was Investor Relations at Carlton TV and he was totally useless and thick as pig sh1t. He was a laughing stock amongst the financial community for just how clueless he was.

    Mind you, I guess since his best mate Georgie-O is best mates with the UAE and helping them with the Telegraph bid so maybe some favours are being called in....

    To be fair most people in the UK and the vast majority of nations in the UN too would recognise a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 60,480
    Some already funded US weapons are reportedly still arriving in Ukraine.

    Ukraine to receive first GLSDB rocket-propelled bombs with 150 km range on Jan. 31
    Ukraine will receive the first ground-launched small-diameter bombs with 150 km range on 31 January, per Politico sources. The US announced GLSDB supplies early last year, but the new weapon’s testing lasted months.
    https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/01/30/politico-ukraine-to-receive-first-glsdb-rocket-propelled-bombs-with-150-km-range-on-jan-31/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,504
    edited January 30

    O/T, I see Lord Cameron has been stirring the pot again with his comments on recognising a Palestinian state.

    I really do not know what people see in him. I dealt with him when he was Investor Relations at Carlton TV and he was totally useless and thick as pig sh1t. He was a laughing stock amongst the financial community for just how clueless he was.

    Mind you, I guess since his best mate Georgie-O is best mates with the UAE and helping them with the Telegraph bid so maybe some favours are being called in....

    I see you’re posting defamatory content about George Osborne again.

    I guess I will have to supply your email address to George Osborne’s lawyers this time.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 13,743

    viewcode said:

    DougSeal said:

    A real worry for LAB, I would argue, is if the blue team gets rid of Sunak who I regard as a huge liability.

    The only plausible alternatives in the HoC would be Penny Mordaunt or the return of strong and stable Theresa May. May would be quite a tricky opponent for Starmer.

    Truss would also make a big difference
    She certainly would. One best viewed from a distant bunker.
    Even the best bunkers....

    image
    Who said the bunker was on this planet, or even in this Solar System?

    Maybe that nice Mr Musk has a point.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,498

    I was browsing through the news today and came across a story in the Mirror regarding the US/Israel. As you might expect from the robustly left wing newspaper the stance was pretty critical of the two powers. They quoted an academic from King's College London, Dr Andreas Krieg, for their analysis. Being the inquisitive type I thought I would try and learn a bit more about Dr Krieg. The easiest, most straightforward way to do that is of course to look at his Twitter feed. I was in luck as Dr Krieg seems to be a very regular poster to the site. I read down his list of tweets going back over the last month.

    In short, Dr Krieg a senior lecturer in Security Studies at King's College London comes across as an anti-Israeli polemicist. He also finds time for criticism of the US, other western countries and perhaps most interestingly, the UAE. I couldn't really find any criticism of Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas or the Houthis. If there is a good guy in all of this, then according to Dr Krieg's twitter feed it would appear to be Qatar, the mediators between Israel and Hamas, the latter of who's leaders are conveniently located in Doha.

    The links between King's and Qatar have grown over the years. In 2014 KCL apparently took £26m to help train officers in the Qatari army. More recently there is the Qatar Centre For Global Banking and Finance at KCL. Given our reliance on the Universities and their political influence shouldn't we be paying a bit more attention to the foreign states funding them and the reasons they might be doing so? In life you get what you pay for.

    If you'd looked at Dr Krieg's own website you can see he is involved with Qatar, and in setting up Qatar/KCL/MoD links.
    https://www.andreaskrieg.com/
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,281

    Nicola Sturgeon and Jeane Freeman purchased 'burner' phones at start of 2020 Covid lockdown

    https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-jeane-freeman-purchased-32005597

    On Thursday, March 19, 2020, Ms Sturgeon purchased a Nokia mobile phone from Amazon for £18.16. Devices available for a similar price are 2G only, although texts, WhatsApps and emails should still go through without any large attachments. The then first minister also purchased £18 worth of SIM card top-ups.

    That drawer full of burners that Jax had in Sons of Anarchy.... all the flip phones.....
    I was just musing on what I would do if I wanted a true burner phone. Can you still buy a pay as you go device in cash from a phone store? Can you top them up with a single use Visa card/voucher?
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,219
    I'm not sure I'd quite say the lead is "artificial" but it's a snapshot of where we are. During both the last two election campaigns the polls have shifted fairly dramatically as the disgruntled have picked a side. That doesn't mean they were artificial, just moved as certain things happened.

    Labour outperformed its pre-election polling both times - almost certainly because it had a leader who was unpopular with lots of people who when faced with a choice, ultimately wanted Labour or a party that might try and ditch/soften Brexit.

    In 2017 May was getting 90s Blair-like poll leads, but come the election, people ultimately returned to their tribes and cancelled each other out. In 2019, Boris corralled the leavers, but remainers were split over Corbyn - so only about half came back.

    So projecting forward. If the Tories have a reasonable 6 months we might see something similar happen and the polls narrow a bit as people pick a team. Like Corbyn in 2017 maybe Rishi's personal ratings improve and miffed Tories return a bit as ultimately, they prefer him to Starmer.

    But it's far from certain. A decent 6 months for Labour and some more Tory infighting and scandal (at this stage the party's default setting), and it could still be catastrophic.

    One question is whether the Tories still have a self-righting mechanism (as Labour did in the Corbyn years) whereby when it looks really bad, everyone stops tearing each other to shreds long enough and acknowledge problems and quick fixes long enough to pull a result out of the bag.

    At the moment they look to delusional to do so. And the worst thing for them will be if a shellacking really sneaks up on them as are telling themselves 'the polls will close/are wrong'.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,695
    Could someone enlighten me as to what a re-elected Tory government would be trying to achieve?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,382
    Opinium consciously corrects for swing back by allocating don't knows to the party they previously voted for. The assumption is that when it comes to the crunch people will grit their teeth and vote as they did before. This assumption has often, but not always, panned out in previous elections.

    Even so, Opinium thinks Labour will win by 14 points.

    I don't see it.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,281
    MJW said:

    I'm not sure I'd quite say the lead is "artificial" but it's a snapshot of where we are. During both the last two election campaigns the polls have shifted fairly dramatically as the disgruntled have picked a side. That doesn't mean they were artificial, just moved as certain things happened.

    Labour outperformed its pre-election polling both times - almost certainly because it had a leader who was unpopular with lots of people who when faced with a choice, ultimately wanted Labour or a party that might try and ditch/soften Brexit.

    In 2017 May was getting 90s Blair-like poll leads, but come the election, people ultimately returned to their tribes and cancelled each other out. In 2019, Boris corralled the leavers, but remainers were split over Corbyn - so only about half came back.

    So projecting forward. If the Tories have a reasonable 6 months we might see something similar happen and the polls narrow a bit as people pick a team. Like Corbyn in 2017 maybe Rishi's personal ratings improve and miffed Tories return a bit as ultimately, they prefer him to Starmer.

    But it's far from certain. A decent 6 months for Labour and some more Tory infighting and scandal (at this stage the party's default setting), and it could still be catastrophic.

    One question is whether the Tories still have a self-righting mechanism (as Labour did in the Corbyn years) whereby when it looks really bad, everyone stops tearing each other to shreds long enough and acknowledge problems and quick fixes long enough to pull a result out of the bag.

    At the moment they look to delusional to do so. And the worst thing for them will be if a shellacking really sneaks up on them as are telling themselves 'the polls will close/are wrong'.

    The debates are an interesting one this time. Presumably Starmer will want to avoid them like the Tories have recently, as he would be taking the biggest risk. Could Sunak surprise on the upside, even with all the inevitable “standing on a box” jokes? Davey won’t. Who is leading the Greens and how telegenic are they? Could Nigel get in?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,281
    dixiedean said:

    Could someone enlighten me as to what a re-elected Tory government would be trying to achieve?

    Based on this Parliament? Staying in power and then winning the next election. That’s it.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 18,981

    O/T, I see Lord Cameron has been stirring the pot again with his comments on recognising a Palestinian state.

    I really do not know what people see in him. I dealt with him when he was Investor Relations at Carlton TV and he was totally useless and thick as pig sh1t. He was a laughing stock amongst the financial community for just how clueless he was.

    Mind you, I guess since his best mate Georgie-O is best mates with the UAE and helping them with the Telegraph bid so maybe some favours are being called in....

    I see you’re posting defamatory content about George Osborne again.

    I guess I will have to supply your email address to George Osborne’s lawyers this time.
    Does anyone know what happened to @MrEd ? Some say he walks among us
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 13,743
    dixiedean said:

    Could someone enlighten me as to what a re-elected Tory government would be trying to achieve?

    Same as usual- keeping the socialists out.

    (No, seriously. Being in power to keep the socialists out of power has been the guiding light of the Conervative party forever. It's about the only thing that unites, say, Ted Heath and Iain Duncan Smith. Until quite recently, it kind of worked and the party shuffled around following its leader of the moment.

    What's unusual, and a bit scary, is that Conservatives have started believing in things and getting crosser with each other than they are with the opposition. That being so, flip knows what a 2024-9 Conservative government would look like. Except it would be an utter fiasco as they had to deal with the minefield they had laid over the last few years, without the cover story of "we didn't lay this minefield".)
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,082

    I have been of the consistent view that LAB will do very well to exceed 40%. And they might get 'only' 38%. However the latter should be enough.

    Even Corbyn got 40% in 2017
    But there were lots of people enthused by Corbyn. No one is enthused by Starmer.
  • dixiedean said:

    Could someone enlighten me as to what a re-elected Tory government would be trying to achieve?

    Stuffing as much public money into the pockets of their friends, patrons and donors.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,844

    O/T, I see Lord Cameron has been stirring the pot again with his comments on recognising a Palestinian state.

    I really do not know what people see in him. I dealt with him when he was Investor Relations at Carlton TV and he was totally useless and thick as pig sh1t. He was a laughing stock amongst the financial community for just how clueless he was.

    Mind you, I guess since his best mate Georgie-O is best mates with the UAE and helping them with the Telegraph bid so maybe some favours are being called in....

    He might be totally useless, but he is the best leader the Conservatives could find in the last 25 years.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,833
    biggles said:

    Nicola Sturgeon and Jeane Freeman purchased 'burner' phones at start of 2020 Covid lockdown

    https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-jeane-freeman-purchased-32005597

    On Thursday, March 19, 2020, Ms Sturgeon purchased a Nokia mobile phone from Amazon for £18.16. Devices available for a similar price are 2G only, although texts, WhatsApps and emails should still go through without any large attachments. The then first minister also purchased £18 worth of SIM card top-ups.

    That drawer full of burners that Jax had in Sons of Anarchy.... all the flip phones.....
    I was just musing on what I would do if I wanted a true burner phone. Can you still buy a pay as you go device in cash from a phone store? Can you top them up with a single use Visa card/voucher?
    Yes to both.

    But your secrecy problems have just started.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 6,751
    If the Tories had a great alternative leader, they would have picked them over Sunak, and indeed they would have picked them over Truss.

    People talk of a honeymoon period. No-one bothers asking you about your honeymoon when you're on wedding #4.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,082
    HYUFD said:

    If the Tories can squeeze DKs and Reform voters they can certainly narrow Starmer's majority, maybe even get a hung parliament but Labour will still likely comfortably win most seats.

    OGH I see from spending 2021-22 saying the Tories must get rid of Boris and replace him with Rishi is now saying the Tories should get rid of Rishi too? Does he really think Badenoch or Braverman are going to lead to a surge in Conservative support? Mordaunt might make a fractional difference but no more than that

    CON have to stick with Rishi now and see it through to the bitter end if necessary, there is no credible alternative approach.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 42,833

    viewcode said:

    DougSeal said:

    A real worry for LAB, I would argue, is if the blue team gets rid of Sunak who I regard as a huge liability.

    The only plausible alternatives in the HoC would be Penny Mordaunt or the return of strong and stable Theresa May. May would be quite a tricky opponent for Starmer.

    Truss would also make a big difference
    She certainly would. One best viewed from a distant bunker.
    Even the best bunkers....

    image
    Who said the bunker was on this planet, or even in this Solar System?

    Maybe that nice Mr Musk has a point.
    https://hitchhikers.fandom.com/wiki/Disaster_Area
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 18,981

    If the Tories had a great alternative leader, they would have picked them over Sunak, and indeed they would have picked them over

    T

    R

    U

    S

    S


    People talk of a honeymoon period. No-one bothers asking you about your honeymoon when you're on wedding #4.

    What a lady.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 57,808
    eristdoof said:

    O/T, I see Lord Cameron has been stirring the pot again with his comments on recognising a Palestinian state.

    I really do not know what people see in him. I dealt with him when he was Investor Relations at Carlton TV and he was totally useless and thick as pig sh1t. He was a laughing stock amongst the financial community for just how clueless he was.

    Mind you, I guess since his best mate Georgie-O is best mates with the UAE and helping them with the Telegraph bid so maybe some favours are being called in....

    He might be totally useless, but he is the best leader the Conservatives could find in the last 25 years.
    Ouch.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,565
    HYUFD said:

    O/T, I see Lord Cameron has been stirring the pot again with his comments on recognising a Palestinian state.

    I really do not know what people see in him. I dealt with him when he was Investor Relations at Carlton TV and he was totally useless and thick as pig sh1t. He was a laughing stock amongst the financial community for just how clueless he was.

    Mind you, I guess since his best mate Georgie-O is best mates with the UAE and helping them with the Telegraph bid so maybe some favours are being called in....

    To be fair most people in the UK and the vast majority of nations in the UN too would recognise a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza
    The vast majority in the UN already have:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_State_of_Palestine
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 57,808

    dixiedean said:

    Could someone enlighten me as to what a re-elected Tory government would be trying to achieve?

    Stuffing as much public money into the pockets of their friends, patrons and donors.
    And the triple lock.

    Don't forget the triple lock.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 57,808
    dixiedean said:

    Could someone enlighten me as to what a re-elected Tory government would be trying to achieve?

    Well, apparently young mr sunak was on Good Morning itv this morning and it was mainly about fasting.

    Excellent advise for all those Tuesday morning food bankers out there.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,004
    edited January 30
    Nigelb said:

    LOL
    They can’t even lie properly.

    Rep. Salazar is pressed on CBS Miami why she’s taking credit for cash to her district from bills she voted against, like CHIPS & Science & infrastructure.

    She doesn’t recall how she voted.

    “I need to ask my staff.”

    “I cannot really remember right now.”

    https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1752130654152573236

    Not even as though they pass that much legislation to forget.
    biggles said:

    dixiedean said:

    Could someone enlighten me as to what a re-elected Tory government would be trying to achieve?

    Based on this Parliament? Staying in power and then winning the next election. That’s it.
    Real wasted opportunity this parliament. Yes, there was Covid, but a majority of this size could still have seen some really significant legislation passed. When they gave up on planning reform rather than at least amending what they were doing at least it was a poor sign.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,219

    I have been of the consistent view that LAB will do very well to exceed 40%. And they might get 'only' 38%. However the latter should be enough.

    Even Corbyn got 40% in 2017
    But there were lots of people enthused by Corbyn. No one is enthused by Starmer.
    There were some people enthused by Corbyn. There were a much bigger number who found him thoroughly repulsive.
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