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The Peculiar UnPopularity of Politicians – politicalbetting.com
The Peculiar UnPopularity of Politicians – politicalbetting.com
Parents usually have two wishes for their children: that they should neither be a politician nor a lawyer. And for good reason. Politicians are awfully unpopular people, and now more than ever. Indeed, if you look at the approval/disapproval ratings of political leaders around the world, you struggle to find any with positive ratings. Indeed, outside countries where the population are… nervous… to record their views about the leadership (*cough* Russia and Iran *cough*), there seems be only two examples of politicals leaders with positive approval ratings: Modi in India and Obrador in Mexico. (I thought Meloni, in Italy, was above the zero line, but she too has now dipped below.) If you look at the list, you will notice something: whether you are Left wing or Right wing, whether your country is struggling with immigration issues or not, governments are unpopular. Some of this, I suggest, is the global consequences of inflation. Thanks to both the end of Covid and commodity impacts from the Ukraine war, inflation shot up everywhere in 2021 and 2022, only subsiding in the second half of last year. Wages – inevitably – lagged inflation, and this has meant that people have felt poorer. The other element is that people in the developed world have not had a great fifteen years. Whether it’s because we need to compete with Chinese and Indians for scarce commodities; or whether it’s because the neoliberal consensus no longer works; or perhaps because government budgets are being squeezed by ever more old people is beside the point. People got used to ever rising living conditions. Now they – understandably – are unhappy that the path to prosperity seems to have vanished. The
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I think we're getting into a position similar to the 20th century - the paradoxes of capitalism are coming home to roost and the inaction of states to safeguard the material needs of the average person is leading towards grievance and a willingness to embrace the far right, even if you don't like them. Liberals are unpopular because they refuse to deal with the issues, left wingers are unpopular because the apparatus of capital control most media and would lose out under a more left wing world so scream bloody hell about anyone to the left of Atilla the Hun. And the right are unpopular because their wish casting politics just can't be done.
My life is shit it's the government's fault. And who heads up the government.
Net approval for @Keir_Starmer falls by two percentage points since our last poll, while net approval for @RishiSunak is down by three points.
Politicians are treated like estate agents or tabloid journalists now in the scale of respect, though individual MPs and councillors are often popular.
What the chart does show though is yes across the western world the high inflation and high interest rates that followed due to Covid and the Ukraine war have meant all uncumbents are in negative territory. Only Meloni in Italy gets close to positive territory.
The negative scores for Scholz, Biden and Albanese will worry Starmer. Like him they are social democrats and they are only in their first terms and already unpopular, that suggests he could face unpopularity too even if he wins pretty big unless he sees average wages rise above inflation and low interest rates
it isn't always the parents fault.
Why? Domestic policy or foreign policy, or because of Scholz' general timidity?
Have we lost the last bit of the header?
The ...
For what little it is worth, I have my own angle on Trudeau. A relative was in the same class as him at school. The general impression of his schoolmates was that he was a bit dim.
Make of that what you will.
Well done on limiting your booze intake so successfully
I am belatedly doing the same but hoping to find a medium course of still drinking at times but also having half the week entirely sober etc
Question: how do you cope with the boredom? That is what vexes me, still. Booze used to agreeably fill an evening. Now the hours stretch. Yes I read and go to the gym and watch movies and that’s nice but wow there is a lot of time to fill, nonetheless
Sometimes I just want to go to bed at 10pm even if I’m not tired because unconsciousness is less boring
https://cphpost.dk/2023-03-31/news/politics/danish-pms-popularity-takes-a-tumble/
As for boredom; I find I read and code more instead of sitting in front of the TV. But everyone's different.
(Become a trainee Buddhist monk, or a parcel picker at Amazon, etc.)
The reset would work for a couple of years at least.
As Corbyn and his acolytes show, the far left also has significant power for the disaffected.
I have no strong feelings one way or the other, and am just mildly surprised by the antipathy my in-laws display towards him. They sometimes try to explain it to me, but have little more success than i do in explaining to them why we elected Johnson, and then thought Truss was a better idea.
Generall speaking, we do better to talk about the hockey.
As for the drunkenness, the clarity of thought which precedes the first (alcoholic) drink of the day can be special and productive. So I kid myself that when I'm not drinking I am perceptive and acute, whether that perception and acuity is engaged in watching Netflix or, finally, finishing off The Mirror & The Light, or doing the washing up.
That first light-headed euphoria after a first drink, meanwhile, is accentuated if I have not been drinking for a few days so I look forward to that while also try to avoid being a "weekend binger".
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/6067bf68-a523-4a9b-99ea-b5bbe62c1291?shareToken=156f9ba50f88b1db75fad5ef3595d9ec
Has he done a smart thing by getting his unpopularity in early? Is starting with a public image of "he'll probably be meh at best, but he'll have to do" a solid honest basis for leading us through the hangover to come? Or does it just mean that his plunge will be from low to even lower?
I can see arguments either way, but the politics of 2028 and 2033 depend a lot on it.
A quite interesting piece on the starting day of the Edinburgh pavement parking ban (which is full of holes).
The sharp case is on a street on the grid between the coast and the high street in Portobello, Regent Street. The carriageway is ~6.2m wide; wall to wall is ~8.7m wide; ie ~1.25m footways.
The two edge cases are:
'If we want to park both sides, and leave room for vehicles to drive through, we have to park on the pavements.'
and
'If the pavements are blocked like this both sides, I won't leave my house because I would have to wheel my wheelchair down the carriageway."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-68087244
I think Scholz has an image problem too. For better or worse, Germany had 16 years of being led by Merkel who was considered a prominent and important figure on the world and European stage. Scholz by contrast doesn’t get much press, isn’t very visible, and instead of leading the pack appears to follow (eg on Ukraine support). Psychologically, that will feel like a decline/diminishing.
I find much of life fascinating and compelling - I’m an enthusiast (as may be obvious) - it’s why I love travel and weird people and exotic places and challenging new ideas
But you can’t be that stimulated all the time, and I used to take the edge off the tedious but necessary “down time” with alcohol - it agreeably eased the slow hours before sleep
I might pop half of one of the magic gummy bears I scandalously smuggled from Bangkok
But amongst 2019 Tories it was only 35 who said Boris would make them more likely, and we don’t have the figure for 2019 Tories for whom he would be a turn off. It would be nice to see those tables
(He has to hope that, by 2028 or so, he can run on a Major '92 style "Yes it hurt, yes it worked" campaign.)
The thing is, most people to varying degrees have some racist xenophobic and generally mean-spirited tendencies. The question is how they deal with them. Do they fight and supress? Or do they justify and further succumb? It's only if they choose the latter (and it is a choice) that they end up supporting far right parties and politicians.
I don't think I can bring myself to drink fake booze; something in my soul would cry out in despair
It would be like knowingly taking fake heroin that has no effect, what's the damn point? I enjoy the sensation of drinking, the flavours of wine - to an extent - but my main purpose is some form of intoxication
I am getting quite a lot of work done, however, and all my affairs are very much in order - there is a notable gain in efficiency, from greater sobriety
Unfortunately the public want it 'now', and that has been the problem in our politics - long term planning is essential but the public want to see it in their jobs, wallets and standard of living far more quickly
So I have a lot more sober time these past few years. I love it. I read more - and more importantly, remember what I've read. I take longer, more frequent walks, which the dog appreciates. I try and go for a run a few times a week. I play the guitar - badly. I recently got into listening to podcasts. Plus there's always YouTube. I'm also considering whether I want to do a PhD part-time while working, but that way madness may well lie so I blow hot and cold with the notion.
But I'm very rarely bored. Not like you were on a rainy Sunday afternoon in the 80s when I was growing up and there was nothing on TV. That was proper boredom.
I go to bed when I'm tired, usually about 11 but two nights last week it was half 9. If that's boring, so be it - FOMO isn't a thing for me anymore!
I've also cut down on caffeine - I have two builders teas first thing them that's me. As I've hit middle age my body just can't deal with alcohol and caffeine like it did when I was younger. I hit it hard when I was young, I shovelled everything into me I could get my hands on, but I'm glad those days are behind me. I just can't do it now. Nor do I want to.
I wish I could go out on a Friday for a gallon without it wiping out my weekend, but sometimes you just wanna get pissed and talk rubbish with your mates, don't you? So I take the hit and the missus moaning at me for wasting my weekend...
That's a long-winded way of saying I enjoyed getting hammered when I was young, but I prefer a clear head now, and I always manage to keep myself amused.
Being seen as the best option to see the country through difficult times is likely the best strategy to get a second term. Didn't work for Gordon Brown, of course.
The last time I was seriously drunk was a result of having a couple of cocktails on top of beer (young women can be a bad influence!), and that made for an unpleasant trip home on the train and a rough next morning.
People arrested for gang affiliation in last two years alone: 75,000
So over 1% of the total population, including kids and pensioners, arrested for gang crimes or affiliation!
But ok I see what you're trying to say about yourself. Can't cope with mundanity. Need to be high octane the whole time, buzzing away.
https://twitter.com/MySportsUpdate/status/1751783734141935846
‘F---ing lunatics': Deadly Jordan attacks spur open GOP feud
Tucker Carlson and other pro-isolationist voices have insulted or questioned lawmakers who have called for swift retaliation over the Iran-backed strikes.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/28/republicans-split-jordan-attacks-carlson-00138272
At heart most people like capitalism. What they want is for capitalism to be fair - so no unfair advantages of birth, of wealth etc. They want hard work rewarded.
What they don't want is bullshit economic theories about 'capital' and the 'politcal establishment' etc
Good one Robert. Have to say i was completely unaware of Shulz's rating being so bad
Do we know why?
If you do a PhD, it will be hell at some point, so you have to really want to do it. Probably more so part time as the hell bit will last longer - it will all last longer - and the "Oh shit I don't have time to get this wrapped up in time" feeling will be even more acute. But the sense of achievement from getting it finished is quite something.
*One of my supervisors was a complete Jeremy Hunt, so that spoiled things a bit. I wasn't sure about him in my interview; should have listened to my instincts. I'd still have done a PhD, just done it somewhere else with different people.
I too can't drink like I once did without feeling rotten the next day, and also get the hangxiety of which you speak if I do over do it.
I don't drink if working the next day, which means 2 days normally per week, and then don't have more than 2 pints or half a bottle of wine. It's plenty to be social, and enough for any meal as an accompaniment.
I don't find it useful to drink to fill time or to relax, as I always have things of interest needing attention..
Deltapoll
@DeltapollUK
·
1h
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
Labour lead narrows to fourteen points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
Con 29% (+1)
Lab 43% (-2)
Lib Dem 10% (+1)
Other 19% (+2)
Fieldwork: 26th - 29th January 2024
Sample: 2,064 GB adults
(Changes from 19th - 22nd January 2024)
It's a hugely valuable service for children in care, which ought to be better known, and there's a national shortage. While it requires potentially multi-year commitments, it doesn't take up a huge amount of time.
https://ivnetwork.org.uk/become-an-iv/
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/be/Limits-to-growth-figure-35.svg/220px-Limits-to-growth-figure-35.svg.png
https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:4748/1*r0B2D8Cl1syeudza8ORwwQ.png
Every single academic conference I go to is doom laden. There is deep deep worry in the academic community about where current trends are taking us....
So I teach on the MBA programme at a leading London business school. We visited a leading european car manufacurer this year... they had electrified one of their brands and sold thousand of cars they could not deliver... they had taken the money, but the copper, lithium, rare minerals and quality steel was in such short supply that it led to a crisis for the company. Anyway they were open about this. After I spoke to one of the top top execs of this firm and said: look out on the streets at the fleet of vehicles driving around. What is the likelihood of those being replaced 1:1 with electric or hydrogen by 2040 or 2050..... he said: "Nil... it isn't happening... mobility as we have known it since ww2 is going to become a luxury." I asked him what should be done.... he said "we have to redesign cities so the car isn't needed like today" 🤷
The consumption opportunities and level of material prosperity people have become accustomed to over the last 80 years is an aberration historical terms and it is about to drop away.
Once Starmer is in government he will drop and could rapidly find himself in the same place.
Weird thing is I almost never get hangovers. I used to, but they faded away in my early 40s. I have to drink extreme amounts to get a proper hangover; indeed, that likely aided my drinking - I never paid a price the next morning (I have no idea why, someone once told me it was a BAD sign, who knows)
Even beyond these trends, you have the reality of climate change making our food security future... pretty bleak
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1433829191405826052.html
Congratulations.
How much do you want to lose?
I lost 33KG from June 2022 to June 2023
Hardest bit is keeping it off for me. (Had gained 5KG BY 31/12/23) and as at this morning only lost 1KG of that
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1751942592403566782?t=Wh5a_8FD1TCPIeIK-IgOvw&s=19
Which is one reason why he was so personally unpopular, while Labour policies and its overall brand often weren't.
People eventually smelt a rat when attempting to present someone with an endless history of far left positions, and a fanbase who constantly celebrated that fact, as a bit to the left of Labour but essentially a social democrat.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/science-minister-resigned-afford-mortgage-rise
Minister resigns because his new mortgage repayments are unaffordable were he to remain a minister - so he’s left to do better paid work elsewhere
The article and his blog post is rather daming (without faint praise)
Beer and curry fans please explain.
You are now somewhatreducedjohnknowls.
Now a couple bottles of my medium strength homebrew is enough to send me to sleep.
I also don't drink anywhere near what I used to, in fact rarely drink in the house now, as I am fed up of waking up at 3AM and not being able to go back to sleep. Even if after a couple of bottles of modest strength beer,
The national trend, since 2005, is a steady decline in alcohol consumption in the UK.
What the world needs is not for the rich world to get disproportionately richer, it is for the poorer world to catch up with the middling/richer world. The is essential not only because it is right, but also because there is no other way to stem the increasing flow of economic and political migrants.
Hard work is rewarded - but yes every job comes with its own salary, and some of them are grossly unfair. And yet. Is it right for a CEO to earn millions? Maybe, if they can show that their input actual generates substantially more than that.
Should lower paid jobs be better paid? Yes - in an ideal world people would not need extra money from government if they are working a 37.5h week. But is it right that I earn more as a Uni lecturer than someone that works in retail? I bring a lifetime of experience of my subject to the role, you can be trained for a job on the tills and stacking shelves in days.
Capitalism cannot be left to run without check, for sure, but I have not seen a better arrangement suggested. What do you propose?
Now I'm more of a man of leisure, I do loads of exercise, and end up physically tired and mentally fresh - also equating lack of sleep. I therefore try to do 'mental' stuff as well for balance: coding, writing, arguing on PB...
Also £2,000 PCM should be eminently affordable on a ministerial salary.
https://metro.co.uk/2024/01/28/man-utds-marcus-rashford-fined-650-000-nightclub-visit-20185985/
It's a shame for the left that when they actually get some left-wing policies, the salesman for those policies was an anti-Semite with very dodgy 'friends'.
I've consistently said on here for years that we need to pay more taxes in order to improve public services. I'd be much happier with Starmer if he came out to say that before the GE, because it would mean he's being truthful.
My Tory majority of 20 now looking more comfortable with usual swingback.
(*) Two, if an Orange Order march in Liverpool is 'right' wing. Those guys looked so stern and unhappy I wondered if they'd be happier and more content just being at home in front of the TV...
Lowest Labour leads
Savanta
Opinium
Techne
Delta Poll
and More in Common
Highest Labour leads
You Gov
We Think
In the middle
Redfield and Wilton Strategies
Ipsos
Do we know why we are consistently getting mid teen leads from 1st group and Mid to high 20s from 2nd group?
Interesting questions: "Who will you have a coalition with, Labour?"
I would be happy in the mean time for more social democratic reform, wealth redistribution, empowerment of unions and individual workers and an increased social safety net. These are the things that would tackle the immediate problems that the "free market" are clearly making worse - inflation (to a degree, climate change will increase the scarcity of lots of essential resources), housing, poverty and malnourishment, etc.
"Fridge-carrying marathon runner stopped by police"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy7wq4y9w5jo