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The Peculiar UnPopularity of Politicians – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,784
edited February 4 in General
imageThe Peculiar UnPopularity of Politicians – politicalbetting.com

Parents usually have two wishes for their children: that they should neither be a politician nor a lawyer. And for good reason. Politicians are awfully unpopular people, and now more than ever. Indeed, if you look at the approval/disapproval ratings of political leaders around the world, you struggle to find any with positive ratings. Indeed, outside countries where the population are… nervous… to record their views about the leadership (*cough* Russia and Iran *cough*), there seems be only two examples of politicals leaders with positive approval ratings: Modi in India and Obrador in Mexico. (I thought Meloni, in Italy, was above the zero line, but she too has now dipped below.) If you look at the list, you will notice something: whether you are Left wing or Right wing, whether your country is struggling with immigration issues or not, governments are unpopular. Some of this, I suggest, is the global consequences of inflation. Thanks to both the end of Covid and commodity impacts from the Ukraine war, inflation shot up everywhere in 2021 and 2022, only subsiding in the second half of last year. Wages – inevitably – lagged inflation, and this has meant that people have felt poorer. The other element is that people in the developed world have not had a great fifteen years. Whether it’s because we need to compete with Chinese and Indians for scarce commodities; or whether it’s because the neoliberal consensus no longer works; or perhaps because government budgets are being squeezed by ever more old people is beside the point. People got used to ever rising living conditions. Now they – understandably – are unhappy that the path to prosperity seems to have vanished. The

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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,959
    What, no Narendra Modi???
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    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    I hear Putin and Xi are very popular indeed. Approval ratings in excess of +100, some say.
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    148grss148grss Posts: 3,919
    A header that mentions the "neoliberal consensus" - good to see pieces recognising that states selling off civic assets may not be seen as a good deal by a majority of the public who like those assets and services and aren't profiting off of them being sold whole sale.

    I think we're getting into a position similar to the 20th century - the paradoxes of capitalism are coming home to roost and the inaction of states to safeguard the material needs of the average person is leading towards grievance and a willingness to embrace the far right, even if you don't like them. Liberals are unpopular because they refuse to deal with the issues, left wingers are unpopular because the apparatus of capital control most media and would lose out under a more left wing world so scream bloody hell about anyone to the left of Atilla the Hun. And the right are unpopular because their wish casting politics just can't be done.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,807
    It's not peculiar it's entirely understandable.

    My life is shit it's the government's fault. And who heads up the government.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,302
    @DeltapollUK

    Net approval for @Keir_Starmer falls by two percentage points since our last poll, while net approval for @RishiSunak is down by three points.


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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,902
    I believe Ted Heath said even though he became PM his father said he would have preferred he was a chartered accountant.

    Politicians are treated like estate agents or tabloid journalists now in the scale of respect, though individual MPs and councillors are often popular.

    What the chart does show though is yes across the western world the high inflation and high interest rates that followed due to Covid and the Ukraine war have meant all uncumbents are in negative territory. Only Meloni in Italy gets close to positive territory.

    The negative scores for Scholz, Biden and Albanese will worry Starmer. Like him they are social democrats and they are only in their first terms and already unpopular, that suggests he could face unpopularity too even if he wins pretty big unless he sees average wages rise above inflation and low interest rates
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    My daughter is a lawyer, Robert.

    it isn't always the parents fault.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,136
    edited January 29
    Most politicians are unpopular because they generally don't mean what they say and don't say what they mean. Leaving aside the *dictators*, how are the numbers for Zelensky & Modi ?
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,369
    edited January 29
    The Germany number is interesting.

    Why? Domestic policy or foreign policy, or because of Scholz' general timidity?

    Have we lost the last bit of the header?

    The ...
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,788
    edited January 29
    it's difficult enough interpreting numbers like these within a specific country, but comparisons across countries are especially troublesome.

    For what little it is worth, I have my own angle on Trudeau. A relative was in the same class as him at school. The general impression of his schoolmates was that he was a bit dim.

    Make of that what you will.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 48,888
    Fpt for @TOPPING

    Well done on limiting your booze intake so successfully

    I am belatedly doing the same but hoping to find a medium course of still drinking at times but also having half the week entirely sober etc

    Question: how do you cope with the boredom? That is what vexes me, still. Booze used to agreeably fill an evening. Now the hours stretch. Yes I read and go to the gym and watch movies and that’s nice but wow there is a lot of time to fill, nonetheless

    Sometimes I just want to go to bed at 10pm even if I’m not tired because unconsciousness is less boring
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,388
    Good article (pedant notes: the trailing "The" and the misspelling of Olaf Scholz). Opposition politicians are often quite popular, as are new incoming leaders, but it doesn't usually survive contact with reality for long. There's a good case study in Denmark, where Mette Fredriksen was originally on +80 popularity:

    https://cphpost.dk/2023-03-31/news/politics/danish-pms-popularity-takes-a-tumble/
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,902
    edited January 29

    it's difficult enough interpreting numbers like these within a specific country, but comparisons across countries are especially troublesome.

    For what little it is worth, I have my own angle on Trudeau. A relative was in the same class as him at school. The general impression of his schoolmates was that he was a bit dim.

    Make of that what you will.

    Maybe but he is charismatic and telegenic and has still won 3 elections and been Canadian PM for 9 years which is more than any of our PMs have managed since Blair even if his Liberals likely lose the next one
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,048
    Leon said:

    Fpt for @TOPPING

    Well done on limiting your booze intake so successfully

    I am belatedly doing the same but hoping to find a medium course of still drinking at times but also having half the week entirely sober etc

    Question: how do you cope with the boredom? That is what vexes me, still. Booze used to agreeably fill an evening. Now the hours stretch. Yes I read and go to the gym and watch movies and that’s nice but wow there is a lot of time to fill, nonetheless

    Sometimes I just want to go to bed at 10pm even if I’m not tired because unconsciousness is less boring

    You can't avoid it. And it's probably not just the drink. We all need to go through a digital cold turkey to overcome the cycle of hyper stimulation. Go for a very long walk.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,604
    Leon said:

    Fpt for @TOPPING

    Well done on limiting your booze intake so successfully

    I am belatedly doing the same but hoping to find a medium course of still drinking at times but also having half the week entirely sober etc

    Question: how do you cope with the boredom? That is what vexes me, still. Booze used to agreeably fill an evening. Now the hours stretch. Yes I read and go to the gym and watch movies and that’s nice but wow there is a lot of time to fill, nonetheless

    Sometimes I just want to go to bed at 10pm even if I’m not tired because unconsciousness is less boring

    For the last year, I've been having a 'dry month' every other month or so - at least nearly; five dry months in 2023.

    As for boredom; I find I read and code more instead of sitting in front of the TV. But everyone's different.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,751
    Leon said:

    Fpt for @TOPPING

    Well done on limiting your booze intake so successfully

    I am belatedly doing the same but hoping to find a medium course of still drinking at times but also having half the week entirely sober etc

    Question: how do you cope with the boredom? That is what vexes me, still. Booze used to agreeably fill an evening. Now the hours stretch. Yes I read and go to the gym and watch movies and that’s nice but wow there is a lot of time to fill, nonetheless

    Sometimes I just want to go to bed at 10pm even if I’m not tired because unconsciousness is less boring

    You're cutting out the drink so as to be healthy and live longer whilst finding life itself an utter bore? Hmm.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,995
    Leon said:

    Fpt for @TOPPING

    Well done on limiting your booze intake so successfully

    I am belatedly doing the same but hoping to find a medium course of still drinking at times but also having half the week entirely sober etc

    Question: how do you cope with the boredom? That is what vexes me, still. Booze used to agreeably fill an evening. Now the hours stretch. Yes I read and go to the gym and watch movies and that’s nice but wow there is a lot of time to fill, nonetheless

    Sometimes I just want to go to bed at 10pm even if I’m not tired because unconsciousness is less boring

    You should take six months off, and do something really boring.
    (Become a trainee Buddhist monk, or a parcel picker at Amazon, etc.)

    The reset would work for a couple of years at least.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,604
    148grss said:

    A header that mentions the "neoliberal consensus" - good to see pieces recognising that states selling off civic assets may not be seen as a good deal by a majority of the public who like those assets and services and aren't profiting off of them being sold whole sale.

    I think we're getting into a position similar to the 20th century - the paradoxes of capitalism are coming home to roost and the inaction of states to safeguard the material needs of the average person is leading towards grievance and a willingness to embrace the far right, even if you don't like them. Liberals are unpopular because they refuse to deal with the issues, left wingers are unpopular because the apparatus of capital control most media and would lose out under a more left wing world so scream bloody hell about anyone to the left of Atilla the Hun. And the right are unpopular because their wish casting politics just can't be done.

    "embrace the far right"

    As Corbyn and his acolytes show, the far left also has significant power for the disaffected.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,449
    Scott_xP said:

    @DeltapollUK

    Net approval for @Keir_Starmer falls by two percentage points since our last poll, while net approval for @RishiSunak is down by three points.


    I think Sunak could conceivably decline further between now and the election. Most people don't really know him that well as a national personality, in the way they "knew" Boris or even May. They will see much more of him during an election campaign, as well as during any leadership challenges in the coming months. He doesn't come across as badly to non-Tories as his 2 predecessors, but I don't think instils the same excitement or loyalty in Tory supporters as them either.
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    HYUFD said:

    it's difficult enough interpreting numbers like these within a specific country, but comparisons across countries are especially troublesome.

    For what little it is worth, I have my own angle on Trudeau. A relative was in the same class as him at school. The general impression of his schoolmates was that he was a bit dim.

    Make of that what you will.

    Maybe but he is charismatic and telegenic and has still won 3 elections and been Canadian PM for 9 years which is more than any of our PMs have managed since Blair even if his Liberals likely lose the next one
    Granted, Hyufd, but I'm just reporting what I hear.

    I have no strong feelings one way or the other, and am just mildly surprised by the antipathy my in-laws display towards him. They sometimes try to explain it to me, but have little more success than i do in explaining to them why we elected Johnson, and then thought Truss was a better idea.

    Generall speaking, we do better to talk about the hockey.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,807
    edited January 29
    Leon said:

    Fpt for @TOPPING

    Well done on limiting your booze intake so successfully

    I am belatedly doing the same but hoping to find a medium course of still drinking at times but also having half the week entirely sober etc

    Question: how do you cope with the boredom? That is what vexes me, still. Booze used to agreeably fill an evening. Now the hours stretch. Yes I read and go to the gym and watch movies and that’s nice but wow there is a lot of time to fill, nonetheless

    Sometimes I just want to go to bed at 10pm even if I’m not tired because unconsciousness is less boring

    As I said I think this is where fake booze comes in. The beer and gins are great, the wines are revolting. And the ritual of pouring myself a gin goes some way to helping.

    As for the drunkenness, the clarity of thought which precedes the first (alcoholic) drink of the day can be special and productive. So I kid myself that when I'm not drinking I am perceptive and acute, whether that perception and acuity is engaged in watching Netflix or, finally, finishing off The Mirror & The Light, or doing the washing up.

    That first light-headed euphoria after a first drink, meanwhile, is accentuated if I have not been drinking for a few days so I look forward to that while also try to avoid being a "weekend binger".
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    Scott_xP said:

    @DeltapollUK

    Net approval for @Keir_Starmer falls by two percentage points since our last poll, while net approval for @RishiSunak is down by three points.


    Rather speaks to the thread header
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,156
    edited January 29

    Good article (pedant notes: the trailing "The" and the misspelling of Olaf Scholz). Opposition politicians are often quite popular, as are new incoming leaders, but it doesn't usually survive contact with reality for long. There's a good case study in Denmark, where Mette Fredriksen was originally on +80 popularity:

    https://cphpost.dk/2023-03-31/news/politics/danish-pms-popularity-takes-a-tumble/

    Which takes us back to Brother Kier.

    Has he done a smart thing by getting his unpopularity in early? Is starting with a public image of "he'll probably be meh at best, but he'll have to do" a solid honest basis for leading us through the hangover to come? Or does it just mean that his plunge will be from low to even lower?

    I can see arguments either way, but the politics of 2028 and 2033 depend a lot on it.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,807
    fpt
    viewcode said:

    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    Labour MP Kate Osamor has had the whip suspended following her Holocaust Memorial Day post




    https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1751672931103408461

    I'm not slow to criticise anti-semitism, which runs rife amongst the Corbynistas, but I'm struggling to see what's wrong with that post?
    Comparing the Israeli campaign in Gaza to the Holocaust?
    Ah, I missed Gaza as the final word. Just didn't spot it.

    I thought she was just saying we should remember all holocausts and genocides and the criticism was that she was diluting the meaning of it in remembering the original Holocaust by so doing.
    Yes, it was deliberately tendentious to mention Gaza.

    The historical facts are substantially well-established and unequivocal in respect of the Holocaust, whilst anything but for Gaza.

    Starmer was correct to penalise her. It would be nice if her constituency did likewise, but I expect she knows her audience.
    So the many Jewish people I know who are also comparing what is happening in Gaza to the Holocaust, as well as the many Jewish people with family who did and did not survive the Holocaust, are what? Also anti-Semites? Never again means never again for anyone. This is just Starmer using this as a stick to beat left wing MPs with.
    Don't lecture me about the views of Jewish people. Apart from anything else, I live with one. Their opinions are, in my experience, many and various.

    The MP was playing politics. She got what she asked for.
    A politician playing politics, whatever next.
    Oh, she's entitled to do so, just as her Party Leader is entitled to react.

    Personally I would avoid trying to hijack an essentially non-political demonstration like Holocaust Day to my own specific and rather contentious ends, but as I indicated, she knows her audience. She appealed to it, just as her Party Leader appealed to his.

    I notice that Corbyn managed to stay the right side of the line by dealing in generalities. She decided to go further.

    As I said, she got what she deserved.
    Holocaust Memorial day in not "non-political". It may be non-partisan - but of course it is political. It happened due to a political ideology, and it was enacted using the state apparatus of the Nazi state, and politics made it happen. The ideologies behind genocides are political, and the similarities between other genocides and the Holocaust are important. If we are supposed to remember the Holocaust surely it is for a reason, and that reason is never again. It therefore makes sense to mention a current potential genocide (which the ICJ are going to investigate as such) when memorialising those killed in the Holocaust.
    "A current potential genocide".

    Is that like my status as currently potentially dating Margot Robbie.
    I mean, genocide is a legal term and (unfortunately) typically only gets designated as such after the fact. I am happy based on South Africa's evidence to call it a genocide, but I know people here like being pedantic so I didn't want to get pulled up on that.
    Using the word "Genocide" is quite a well-used rhetorical device and often falls into the same bucket as "woke", "political correctness gone mad", et al.

    You are happy for South Africa to have used it and I would say whoop-de-doo. The ICJ said Israel shouldn't engage in genocide which is sort of the thing that you would expect and hope the ICJ to say.

    Meanwhile, in Gaza, the war rages. Wars are shit and shit things happen in the name of a war aim. Inadvertent, or even intentional bombing of civilian populations is quite common. Usually the victors tend to have dibs on categorisation and nomination. In this case, as @RochdalePioneers notes, a victor will be very hard to identify which means we must come to our own conclusions.
    The lawyer in the Bosnian case discussed online how this is the first step to a full investigation into official designation of a genocide. That the ICJ ruled that it had jurisdiction to investigate is similar to saying there is "reasonable suspicion" that they are doing a genocide. You can go back to your usual hand waving of "the powerful will do what they will" all you want - it doesn't change the importance of the situation.
    People are dying in large numbers. How large we don't know because Hamas is controlling that narrative but certainly large. Buildings are being flattened, infrastructure is being destroyed.

    All fairly war-ish. But South Africa says hold on this is genocide. And some lawyer looks at the supposed body count and says why yes it could be.

    Such a sequence could apply to most any conflict of the past 100 years.

    Is Israel systematically trying to kill every Palestinian? I don't think it is. Or if it is it is being pretty cack-handed about it.
    The incoming famine could be a efficient delivery vehicle with limited apportionment of blame if Netanyahu is so minded.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/28/famine-in-gaza-is-being-made-inevitable-says-un-rapporteur

    Make no mistake, Hamas are a death cult that needs to be crushed.

    The incoming collective punishment of Palestinians by Netanyahu via famine might shift the dial towards adjectives that we have hitherto avoided. The numbers involved could be eye-watetingly high.
    Couple of things here.

    First, did the Allies "collectively punish" the Germans or were they just at war with them. :Let's not go round in circles but Hamas is the democratically-elected government of Gaza.

    Secondly, let's wait for the famine to materialise before we castigate Israel for it. When we see pictures a la Michael Buerk 40 years ago (god help us) then we can worry. And of course puff pieces as there have been on Band/Live Aid of course the international community got that wrong also and instead of helping the starving, propped up Mengistu and the Eritreans.
    Yes, the allies did collectively punish Germans and things like the Dresden bombings would be considered war crimes under the laws we have now.
    Iiuc dambusting and flamethrowers were made into war crimes after WW2
    Meaningless. If we were facing an existential war we would be dambusting and flamethrowing like bastards.
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    Good article (pedant notes: the trailing "The" and the misspelling of Olaf Scholz). Opposition politicians are often quite popular, as are new incoming leaders, but it doesn't usually survive contact with reality for long. There's a good case study in Denmark, where Mette Fredriksen was originally on +80 popularity:

    https://cphpost.dk/2023-03-31/news/politics/danish-pms-popularity-takes-a-tumble/

    Which takes us back to Brother Kier.

    Has he done a smart thing by getting his unpopularity in early? Is starting with a public image of "he'll probably be meh at best, but he'll have to do" a solid honest basis for leading us through the hangover to come? Or does it just mean that his plunge will be from low to even lower?

    I can see arguments either way, but the politics of 2028 and 2033 depend a lot on it.
    Personally I think he's playing the game smart, but we'll be eating the pudding soon enough and will know how it tastes then.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,369
    edited January 29
    OT:

    A quite interesting piece on the starting day of the Edinburgh pavement parking ban (which is full of holes).

    The sharp case is on a street on the grid between the coast and the high street in Portobello, Regent Street. The carriageway is ~6.2m wide; wall to wall is ~8.7m wide; ie ~1.25m footways.

    The two edge cases are:

    'If we want to park both sides, and leave room for vehicles to drive through, we have to park on the pavements.'

    and

    'If the pavements are blocked like this both sides, I won't leave my house because I would have to wheel my wheelchair down the carriageway."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-68087244


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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,829
    MattW said:

    The Germany number is interesting.

    Why? Domestic policy or foreign policy, or because of Scholz' general timidity?

    Have we lost the last bit of the header?

    The ...

    Re Germany: the economy and the immigration issue seem to be the big reasons. And the fact that the junior coalition partners don’t really get along.

    I think Scholz has an image problem too. For better or worse, Germany had 16 years of being led by Merkel who was considered a prominent and important figure on the world and European stage. Scholz by contrast doesn’t get much press, isn’t very visible, and instead of leading the pack appears to follow (eg on Ukraine support). Psychologically, that will feel like a decline/diminishing.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 48,888
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @TOPPING

    Well done on limiting your booze intake so successfully

    I am belatedly doing the same but hoping to find a medium course of still drinking at times but also having half the week entirely sober etc

    Question: how do you cope with the boredom? That is what vexes me, still. Booze used to agreeably fill an evening. Now the hours stretch. Yes I read and go to the gym and watch movies and that’s nice but wow there is a lot of time to fill, nonetheless

    Sometimes I just want to go to bed at 10pm even if I’m not tired because unconsciousness is less boring

    You're cutting out the drink so as to be healthy and live longer whilst finding life itself an utter bore? Hmm.
    I don’t find life an utter bore. Did I say that? No I didn’t

    I find much of life fascinating and compelling - I’m an enthusiast (as may be obvious) - it’s why I love travel and weird people and exotic places and challenging new ideas

    But you can’t be that stimulated all the time, and I used to take the edge off the tedious but necessary “down time” with alcohol - it agreeably eased the slow hours before sleep

    I might pop half of one of the magic gummy bears I scandalously smuggled from Bangkok
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 29
    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DeltapollUK

    Net approval for @Keir_Starmer falls by two percentage points since our last poll, while net approval for @RishiSunak is down by three points.


    I think Sunak could conceivably decline further between now and the election. Most people don't really know him that well as a national personality, in the way they "knew" Boris or even May. They will see much more of him during an election campaign, as well as during any leadership challenges in the coming months. He doesn't come across as badly to non-Tories as his 2 predecessors, but I don't think instils the same excitement or loyalty in Tory supporters as them either.
    This is a point I made on Saturday, when a YG poll found reinstating Boris as leader would make 16 people more likely to vote Tory, but 22 less… if the 16 were possible Tory voters and the 22 were definitely not Tory voters then it doesn’t matter that it’s a net -6.

    But amongst 2019 Tories it was only 35 who said Boris would make them more likely, and we don’t have the figure for 2019 Tories for whom he would be a turn off. It would be nice to see those tables
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    LeonLeon Posts: 48,888
    Yes, that’s surely criminal. Slam dunk
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    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 15,156


    Good article (pedant notes: the trailing "The" and the misspelling of Olaf Scholz). Opposition politicians are often quite popular, as are new incoming leaders, but it doesn't usually survive contact with reality for long. There's a good case study in Denmark, where Mette Fredriksen was originally on +80 popularity:

    https://cphpost.dk/2023-03-31/news/politics/danish-pms-popularity-takes-a-tumble/

    Which takes us back to Brother Kier.

    Has he done a smart thing by getting his unpopularity in early? Is starting with a public image of "he'll probably be meh at best, but he'll have to do" a solid honest basis for leading us through the hangover to come? Or does it just mean that his plunge will be from low to even lower?

    I can see arguments either way, but the politics of 2028 and 2033 depend a lot on it.
    Personally I think he's playing the game smart, but we'll be eating the pudding soon enough and will know how it tastes then.
    Pudding? I think it will be a few years until we get anything as frivolous as pudding.

    (He has to hope that, by 2028 or so, he can run on a Major '92 style "Yes it hurt, yes it worked" campaign.)
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,829


    Good article (pedant notes: the trailing "The" and the misspelling of Olaf Scholz). Opposition politicians are often quite popular, as are new incoming leaders, but it doesn't usually survive contact with reality for long. There's a good case study in Denmark, where Mette Fredriksen was originally on +80 popularity:

    https://cphpost.dk/2023-03-31/news/politics/danish-pms-popularity-takes-a-tumble/

    Which takes us back to Brother Kier.

    Has he done a smart thing by getting his unpopularity in early? Is starting with a public image of "he'll probably be meh at best, but he'll have to do" a solid honest basis for leading us through the hangover to come? Or does it just mean that his plunge will be from low to even lower?

    I can see arguments either way, but the politics of 2028 and 2033 depend a lot on it.
    Possibly. I do actually have a feeling that he is either going to get to 2028/9 with a reputation of being competent and sensible (in which case another big win) or he’s going to really crash and burn. We could do with the former, because the winner from an unpopular centrist government is going to be the populist right.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 29


    Good article (pedant notes: the trailing "The" and the misspelling of Olaf Scholz). Opposition politicians are often quite popular, as are new incoming leaders, but it doesn't usually survive contact with reality for long. There's a good case study in Denmark, where Mette Fredriksen was originally on +80 popularity:

    https://cphpost.dk/2023-03-31/news/politics/danish-pms-popularity-takes-a-tumble/

    Which takes us back to Brother Kier.

    Has he done a smart thing by getting his unpopularity in early? Is starting with a public image of "he'll probably be meh at best, but he'll have to do" a solid honest basis for leading us through the hangover to come? Or does it just mean that his plunge will be from low to even lower?

    I can see arguments either way, but the politics of 2028 and 2033 depend a lot on it.
    When someone breaks promises & commitments they’ve made, they generally become unpopular. That’s all he’s ever done so far as a politician, but maybe that’s just a route to the top, at which point he’ll just do what he actually thinks is best
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,134
    Jonathan said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @TOPPING

    Well done on limiting your booze intake so successfully

    I am belatedly doing the same but hoping to find a medium course of still drinking at times but also having half the week entirely sober etc

    Question: how do you cope with the boredom? That is what vexes me, still. Booze used to agreeably fill an evening. Now the hours stretch. Yes I read and go to the gym and watch movies and that’s nice but wow there is a lot of time to fill, nonetheless

    Sometimes I just want to go to bed at 10pm even if I’m not tired because unconsciousness is less boring

    You can't avoid it. And it's probably not just the drink. We all need to go through a digital cold turkey to overcome the cycle of hyper stimulation. Go for a very long walk.
    A typo in the last word?
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,751
    edited January 29

    148grss said:

    A header that mentions the "neoliberal consensus" - good to see pieces recognising that states selling off civic assets may not be seen as a good deal by a majority of the public who like those assets and services and aren't profiting off of them being sold whole sale.

    I think we're getting into a position similar to the 20th century - the paradoxes of capitalism are coming home to roost and the inaction of states to safeguard the material needs of the average person is leading towards grievance and a willingness to embrace the far right, even if you don't like them. Liberals are unpopular because they refuse to deal with the issues, left wingers are unpopular because the apparatus of capital control most media and would lose out under a more left wing world so scream bloody hell about anyone to the left of Atilla the Hun. And the right are unpopular because their wish casting politics just can't be done.

    "embrace the far right"

    As Corbyn and his acolytes show, the far left also has significant power for the disaffected.
    Far less so than the far right, sadly. But in any case I don't go along with the school of thought that tries to explain far right support in terms of people's needs not being met by mainstream politics. Bollox to that really. Being hacked off with the status quo doesn't excuse or explain voting for parties like AfD. People aren't 'driven' to that. They do it because they are nasty little units.

    The thing is, most people to varying degrees have some racist xenophobic and generally mean-spirited tendencies. The question is how they deal with them. Do they fight and supress? Or do they justify and further succumb? It's only if they choose the latter (and it is a choice) that they end up supporting far right parties and politicians.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,888
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @TOPPING

    Well done on limiting your booze intake so successfully

    I am belatedly doing the same but hoping to find a medium course of still drinking at times but also having half the week entirely sober etc

    Question: how do you cope with the boredom? That is what vexes me, still. Booze used to agreeably fill an evening. Now the hours stretch. Yes I read and go to the gym and watch movies and that’s nice but wow there is a lot of time to fill, nonetheless

    Sometimes I just want to go to bed at 10pm even if I’m not tired because unconsciousness is less boring

    As I said I think this is where fake booze comes in. The beer and gins are great, the wines are revolting. And the ritual of pouring myself a gin goes some way to helping.

    As for the drunkenness, the clarity of thought which precedes the first (alcoholic) drink of the day can be special and productive. So I kid myself that when I'm not drinking I am perceptive and acute, whether that perception and acuity is engaged in watching Netflix or, finally, finishing off The Mirror & The Light, or doing the washing up.

    That first light-headed euphoria after a first drink, meanwhile, is accentuated if I have not been drinking for a few days so I look forward to that while also try to avoid being a "weekend binger".
    Useful, thanks

    I don't think I can bring myself to drink fake booze; something in my soul would cry out in despair

    It would be like knowingly taking fake heroin that has no effect, what's the damn point? I enjoy the sensation of drinking, the flavours of wine - to an extent - but my main purpose is some form of intoxication

    I am getting quite a lot of work done, however, and all my affairs are very much in order - there is a notable gain in efficiency, from greater sobriety
  • Options


    Good article (pedant notes: the trailing "The" and the misspelling of Olaf Scholz). Opposition politicians are often quite popular, as are new incoming leaders, but it doesn't usually survive contact with reality for long. There's a good case study in Denmark, where Mette Fredriksen was originally on +80 popularity:

    https://cphpost.dk/2023-03-31/news/politics/danish-pms-popularity-takes-a-tumble/

    Which takes us back to Brother Kier.

    Has he done a smart thing by getting his unpopularity in early? Is starting with a public image of "he'll probably be meh at best, but he'll have to do" a solid honest basis for leading us through the hangover to come? Or does it just mean that his plunge will be from low to even lower?

    I can see arguments either way, but the politics of 2028 and 2033 depend a lot on it.
    Personally I think he's playing the game smart, but we'll be eating the pudding soon enough and will know how it tastes then.
    Pudding? I think it will be a few years until we get anything as frivolous as pudding.

    (He has to hope that, by 2028 or so, he can run on a Major '92 style "Yes it hurt, yes it worked" campaign.)
    I would just comment that if you listen to Starmer, and other labour politicians, they seem to be making the case that it will take two terms (10 years) or more to resolve the problems in the UK and he is right on this

    Unfortunately the public want it 'now', and that has been the problem in our politics - long term planning is essential but the public want to see it in their jobs, wallets and standard of living far more quickly
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Fpt for @TOPPING

    Well done on limiting your booze intake so successfully

    I am belatedly doing the same but hoping to find a medium course of still drinking at times but also having half the week entirely sober etc

    Question: how do you cope with the boredom? That is what vexes me, still. Booze used to agreeably fill an evening. Now the hours stretch. Yes I read and go to the gym and watch movies and that’s nice but wow there is a lot of time to fill, nonetheless

    Sometimes I just want to go to bed at 10pm even if I’m not tired because unconsciousness is less boring

    I haven't had a drink since NYE, this is my fourth time doing Dry January. Since doing it the first time I've found the amount I drink has dropped without any real effort on my part, largely by not drinking in the house and not going to the pub as much. I love alcohol as a social drug but I was never one for nailing a load of cans in front of the TV like mates of mine can do. But even the glass or two of wine or glass of whisky at home has dwindled to virtually nothing. I've found that in my 40s the hangovers are now so bad and long-lasting I just don't go to the pub as much as I used to either. From being 17 to late-30s it was three/four times a week, probably drinking a gallon a time. Now, thanks to using a drink tracking app I started using for my first Dry Jan, I find I average ten days drinking a month, and most of those days are only one or two units. I love a proper sesh in the pub with my mates but it takes me two or three days to get over it. I can cope with the headache, it's the two or three days of lethargy and increasingly bad hangxiety that have curbed by pub visits.

    So I have a lot more sober time these past few years. I love it. I read more - and more importantly, remember what I've read. I take longer, more frequent walks, which the dog appreciates. I try and go for a run a few times a week. I play the guitar - badly. I recently got into listening to podcasts. Plus there's always YouTube. I'm also considering whether I want to do a PhD part-time while working, but that way madness may well lie so I blow hot and cold with the notion.

    But I'm very rarely bored. Not like you were on a rainy Sunday afternoon in the 80s when I was growing up and there was nothing on TV. That was proper boredom.

    I go to bed when I'm tired, usually about 11 but two nights last week it was half 9. If that's boring, so be it - FOMO isn't a thing for me anymore!

    I've also cut down on caffeine - I have two builders teas first thing them that's me. As I've hit middle age my body just can't deal with alcohol and caffeine like it did when I was younger. I hit it hard when I was young, I shovelled everything into me I could get my hands on, but I'm glad those days are behind me. I just can't do it now. Nor do I want to.

    I wish I could go out on a Friday for a gallon without it wiping out my weekend, but sometimes you just wanna get pissed and talk rubbish with your mates, don't you? So I take the hit and the missus moaning at me for wasting my weekend...

    That's a long-winded way of saying I enjoyed getting hammered when I was young, but I prefer a clear head now, and I always manage to keep myself amused.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,449


    Good article (pedant notes: the trailing "The" and the misspelling of Olaf Scholz). Opposition politicians are often quite popular, as are new incoming leaders, but it doesn't usually survive contact with reality for long. There's a good case study in Denmark, where Mette Fredriksen was originally on +80 popularity:

    https://cphpost.dk/2023-03-31/news/politics/danish-pms-popularity-takes-a-tumble/

    Which takes us back to Brother Kier.

    Has he done a smart thing by getting his unpopularity in early? Is starting with a public image of "he'll probably be meh at best, but he'll have to do" a solid honest basis for leading us through the hangover to come? Or does it just mean that his plunge will be from low to even lower?

    I can see arguments either way, but the politics of 2028 and 2033 depend a lot on it.
    Possibly. I do actually have a feeling that he is either going to get to 2028/9 with a reputation of being competent and sensible (in which case another big win) or he’s going to really crash and burn. We could do with the former, because the winner from an unpopular centrist government is going to be the populist right.
    I think it's possible we end up in 2028/9 with a Biden or Macron second term situation. An unpopular government and leader, but not as unpopular as an oddball and dislikeable opposition.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @TOPPING

    Well done on limiting your booze intake so successfully

    I am belatedly doing the same but hoping to find a medium course of still drinking at times but also having half the week entirely sober etc

    Question: how do you cope with the boredom? That is what vexes me, still. Booze used to agreeably fill an evening. Now the hours stretch. Yes I read and go to the gym and watch movies and that’s nice but wow there is a lot of time to fill, nonetheless

    Sometimes I just want to go to bed at 10pm even if I’m not tired because unconsciousness is less boring

    I haven't had a drink since NYE, this is my fourth time doing Dry January. Since doing it the first time I've found the amount I drink has dropped without any real effort on my part, largely by not drinking in the house and not going to the pub as much. I love alcohol as a social drug but I was never one for nailing a load of cans in front of the TV like mates of mine can do. But even the glass or two of wine or glass of whisky at home has dwindled to virtually nothing. I've found that in my 40s the hangovers are now so bad and long-lasting I just don't go to the pub as much as I used to either. From being 17 to late-30s it was three/four times a week, probably drinking a gallon a time. Now, thanks to using a drink tracking app I started using for my first Dry Jan, I find I average ten days drinking a month, and most of those days are only one or two units. I love a proper sesh in the pub with my mates but it takes me two or three days to get over it. I can cope with the headache, it's the two or three days of lethargy and increasingly bad hangxiety that have curbed by pub visits.

    So I have a lot more sober time these past few years. I love it. I read more - and more importantly, remember what I've read. I take longer, more frequent walks, which the dog appreciates. I try and go for a run a few times a week. I play the guitar - badly. I recently got into listening to podcasts. Plus there's always YouTube. I'm also considering whether I want to do a PhD part-time while working, but that way madness may well lie so I blow hot and cold with the notion.

    But I'm very rarely bored. Not like you were on a rainy Sunday afternoon in the 80s when I was growing up and there was nothing on TV. That was proper boredom.

    I go to bed when I'm tired, usually about 11 but two nights last week it was half 9. If that's boring, so be it - FOMO isn't a thing for me anymore!

    I've also cut down on caffeine - I have two builders teas first thing them that's me. As I've hit middle age my body just can't deal with alcohol and caffeine like it did when I was younger. I hit it hard when I was young, I shovelled everything into me I could get my hands on, but I'm glad those days are behind me. I just can't do it now. Nor do I want to.

    I wish I could go out on a Friday for a gallon without it wiping out my weekend, but sometimes you just wanna get pissed and talk rubbish with your mates, don't you? So I take the hit and the missus moaning at me for wasting my weekend...

    That's a long-winded way of saying I enjoyed getting hammered when I was young, but I prefer a clear head now, and I always manage to keep myself amused.
    I water down every alcoholic drink I have now, which means I never get to the hangover stage. My theory was that you never beat the two or three pint buzz, and any more after that was just giving you worse hangovers without making the night better. Now I can’t drink alcohol that’s not watered down, albeit I do probably drink too often
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,134
    TimS said:


    Good article (pedant notes: the trailing "The" and the misspelling of Olaf Scholz). Opposition politicians are often quite popular, as are new incoming leaders, but it doesn't usually survive contact with reality for long. There's a good case study in Denmark, where Mette Fredriksen was originally on +80 popularity:

    https://cphpost.dk/2023-03-31/news/politics/danish-pms-popularity-takes-a-tumble/

    Which takes us back to Brother Kier.

    Has he done a smart thing by getting his unpopularity in early? Is starting with a public image of "he'll probably be meh at best, but he'll have to do" a solid honest basis for leading us through the hangover to come? Or does it just mean that his plunge will be from low to even lower?

    I can see arguments either way, but the politics of 2028 and 2033 depend a lot on it.
    Possibly. I do actually have a feeling that he is either going to get to 2028/9 with a reputation of being competent and sensible (in which case another big win) or he’s going to really crash and burn. We could do with the former, because the winner from an unpopular centrist government is going to be the populist right.
    I think it's possible we end up in 2028/9 with a Biden or Macron second term situation. An unpopular government and leader, but not as unpopular as an oddball and dislikeable opposition.
    "Things would only get even worse" could be our re-election slogan.

    Being seen as the best option to see the country through difficult times is likely the best strategy to get a second term. Didn't work for Gordon Brown, of course.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,420
    edited January 29
    Nayib Bukele of El Salvador is consistently around 90% positive approval rating - no doubt in great part because of his highly visible crackdown on criminal gangs.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,134
    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @TOPPING

    Well done on limiting your booze intake so successfully

    I am belatedly doing the same but hoping to find a medium course of still drinking at times but also having half the week entirely sober etc

    Question: how do you cope with the boredom? That is what vexes me, still. Booze used to agreeably fill an evening. Now the hours stretch. Yes I read and go to the gym and watch movies and that’s nice but wow there is a lot of time to fill, nonetheless

    Sometimes I just want to go to bed at 10pm even if I’m not tired because unconsciousness is less boring

    I haven't had a drink since NYE, this is my fourth time doing Dry January. Since doing it the first time I've found the amount I drink has dropped without any real effort on my part, largely by not drinking in the house and not going to the pub as much. I love alcohol as a social drug but I was never one for nailing a load of cans in front of the TV like mates of mine can do. But even the glass or two of wine or glass of whisky at home has dwindled to virtually nothing. I've found that in my 40s the hangovers are now so bad and long-lasting I just don't go to the pub as much as I used to either. From being 17 to late-30s it was three/four times a week, probably drinking a gallon a time. Now, thanks to using a drink tracking app I started using for my first Dry Jan, I find I average ten days drinking a month, and most of those days are only one or two units. I love a proper sesh in the pub with my mates but it takes me two or three days to get over it. I can cope with the headache, it's the two or three days of lethargy and increasingly bad hangxiety that have curbed by pub visits.

    So I have a lot more sober time these past few years. I love it. I read more - and more importantly, remember what I've read. I take longer, more frequent walks, which the dog appreciates. I try and go for a run a few times a week. I play the guitar - badly. I recently got into listening to podcasts. Plus there's always YouTube. I'm also considering whether I want to do a PhD part-time while working, but that way madness may well lie so I blow hot and cold with the notion.

    But I'm very rarely bored. Not like you were on a rainy Sunday afternoon in the 80s when I was growing up and there was nothing on TV. That was proper boredom.

    I go to bed when I'm tired, usually about 11 but two nights last week it was half 9. If that's boring, so be it - FOMO isn't a thing for me anymore!

    I've also cut down on caffeine - I have two builders teas first thing them that's me. As I've hit middle age my body just can't deal with alcohol and caffeine like it did when I was younger. I hit it hard when I was young, I shovelled everything into me I could get my hands on, but I'm glad those days are behind me. I just can't do it now. Nor do I want to.

    I wish I could go out on a Friday for a gallon without it wiping out my weekend, but sometimes you just wanna get pissed and talk rubbish with your mates, don't you? So I take the hit and the missus moaning at me for wasting my weekend...

    That's a long-winded way of saying I enjoyed getting hammered when I was young, but I prefer a clear head now, and I always manage to keep myself amused.
    I water down every alcoholic drink I have now, which means I never get to the hangover stage. My theory was that you never beat the two or three pint buzz, and any more after that was just giving you worse hangovers without making the night better. Now I can’t drink alcohol that’s not watered down, albeit I do probably drink too often
    Four pints is definitely my ceiling these days.

    The last time I was seriously drunk was a result of having a couple of cocktails on top of beer (young women can be a bad influence!), and that made for an unpleasant trip home on the train and a rough next morning.
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 3,919

    148grss said:

    A header that mentions the "neoliberal consensus" - good to see pieces recognising that states selling off civic assets may not be seen as a good deal by a majority of the public who like those assets and services and aren't profiting off of them being sold whole sale.

    I think we're getting into a position similar to the 20th century - the paradoxes of capitalism are coming home to roost and the inaction of states to safeguard the material needs of the average person is leading towards grievance and a willingness to embrace the far right, even if you don't like them. Liberals are unpopular because they refuse to deal with the issues, left wingers are unpopular because the apparatus of capital control most media and would lose out under a more left wing world so scream bloody hell about anyone to the left of Atilla the Hun. And the right are unpopular because their wish casting politics just can't be done.

    "embrace the far right"

    As Corbyn and his acolytes show, the far left also has significant power for the disaffected.
    But the entire force of capital, which includes the private media and the political establishment, go out of there way to make left wing policies solutions the equivalent of literal Stalinism whilst painting far right rhetoric as "common sense". The Overton window can only go one way for those people - it's the ratchet effect. So people seeing how impossible it is to get left wing solutions (and Corbyn is hardly far left, he proposed a social democratic policy platform that, when polled on issue by issue rather then as "Corbyn's policies", did have popular support) become disaffected and those who desire a far right solution get told it is always possible (because every party panders to them) and that when their policy preference is enacted and doesn't work that's because it wasn't done harshly enough and the answer is to go even more right wing.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,262
    Ghedebrav said:

    Nayib Bukele of El Salvador is consistently around 90% positive approval rating - no doubt in great part because of his highly visible crackdown on criminal gangs.

    Population 6.6m
    People arrested for gang affiliation in last two years alone: 75,000

    So over 1% of the total population, including kids and pensioners, arrested for gang crimes or affiliation!
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 21,262
    Ghedebrav said:

    Nayib Bukele of El Salvador is consistently around 90% positive approval rating - no doubt in great part because of his highly visible crackdown on criminal gangs.

    His grandparents were Palestinians, maybe he could sort that one out too!
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,751
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @TOPPING

    Well done on limiting your booze intake so successfully

    I am belatedly doing the same but hoping to find a medium course of still drinking at times but also having half the week entirely sober etc

    Question: how do you cope with the boredom? That is what vexes me, still. Booze used to agreeably fill an evening. Now the hours stretch. Yes I read and go to the gym and watch movies and that’s nice but wow there is a lot of time to fill, nonetheless

    Sometimes I just want to go to bed at 10pm even if I’m not tired because unconsciousness is less boring

    You're cutting out the drink so as to be healthy and live longer whilst finding life itself an utter bore? Hmm.
    I don’t find life an utter bore. Did I say that? No I didn’t

    I find much of life fascinating and compelling - I’m an enthusiast (as may be obvious) - it’s why I love travel and weird people and exotic places and challenging new ideas

    But you can’t be that stimulated all the time, and I used to take the edge off the tedious but necessary “down time” with alcohol - it agreeably eased the slow hours before sleep

    I might pop half of one of the magic gummy bears I scandalously smuggled from Bangkok
    Well life is hours passing, that's what it is, and you said you were finding many of those hours boring and seemingly endless. In which case (this is just me doing my logic thing) I was wondering why you'd give up a great pleasure (in your case booze) in order to accrue more of them.

    But ok I see what you're trying to say about yourself. Can't cope with mundanity. Need to be high octane the whole time, buzzing away.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,995
    .
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @TOPPING

    Well done on limiting your booze intake so successfully

    I am belatedly doing the same but hoping to find a medium course of still drinking at times but also having half the week entirely sober etc

    Question: how do you cope with the boredom? That is what vexes me, still. Booze used to agreeably fill an evening. Now the hours stretch. Yes I read and go to the gym and watch movies and that’s nice but wow there is a lot of time to fill, nonetheless

    Sometimes I just want to go to bed at 10pm even if I’m not tired because unconsciousness is less boring

    You should take six months off, and do something really boring.
    (Become a trainee Buddhist monk, or a parcel picker at Amazon, etc.)

    The reset would work for a couple of years at least.
    On that score, I recently received much of my ability to taste, which had disappeared post Covid. It's now more of a struggle not to put on weight.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,995
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,995
    This will make Biden's job of threading the needle on how to respond/retaliate to the (likely Iranian) attack on the Jordan base much easier.

    ‘F---ing lunatics': Deadly Jordan attacks spur open GOP feud
    Tucker Carlson and other pro-isolationist voices have insulted or questioned lawmakers who have called for swift retaliation over the Iran-backed strikes.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/28/republicans-split-jordan-attacks-carlson-00138272
  • Options
    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,214

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @TOPPING

    Well done on limiting your booze intake so successfully

    I am belatedly doing the same but hoping to find a medium course of still drinking at times but also having half the week entirely sober etc

    Question: how do you cope with the boredom? That is what vexes me, still. Booze used to agreeably fill an evening. Now the hours stretch. Yes I read and go to the gym and watch movies and that’s nice but wow there is a lot of time to fill, nonetheless

    Sometimes I just want to go to bed at 10pm even if I’m not tired because unconsciousness is less boring

    For the last year, I've been having a 'dry month' every other month or so - at least nearly; five dry months in 2023.

    As for boredom; I find I read and code more instead of sitting in front of the TV. But everyone's different.
    We used to have things called "hobbies". My other half knits. I (like Callan) paint toy soldiers. Some people write for fun. Some people volunteer. I used to aggressively over-work but I've got out of that habit, I'm glad to say. Ideally, try something that a) you can do in the evenings and b) exercises a different part of your brain from the day job. The thing that piques your interest might be quite surprising (c.f. the toy soldiers).
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,835
    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    A header that mentions the "neoliberal consensus" - good to see pieces recognising that states selling off civic assets may not be seen as a good deal by a majority of the public who like those assets and services and aren't profiting off of them being sold whole sale.

    I think we're getting into a position similar to the 20th century - the paradoxes of capitalism are coming home to roost and the inaction of states to safeguard the material needs of the average person is leading towards grievance and a willingness to embrace the far right, even if you don't like them. Liberals are unpopular because they refuse to deal with the issues, left wingers are unpopular because the apparatus of capital control most media and would lose out under a more left wing world so scream bloody hell about anyone to the left of Atilla the Hun. And the right are unpopular because their wish casting politics just can't be done.

    "embrace the far right"

    As Corbyn and his acolytes show, the far left also has significant power for the disaffected.
    But the entire force of capital, which includes the private media and the political establishment, go out of there way to make left wing policies solutions the equivalent of literal Stalinism whilst painting far right rhetoric as "common sense". The Overton window can only go one way for those people - it's the ratchet effect. So people seeing how impossible it is to get left wing solutions (and Corbyn is hardly far left, he proposed a social democratic policy platform that, when polled on issue by issue rather then as "Corbyn's policies", did have popular support) become disaffected and those who desire a far right solution get told it is always possible (because every party panders to them) and that when their policy preference is enacted and doesn't work that's because it wasn't done harshly enough and the answer is to go even more right wing.
    "But the entire force of capital". You been at the Koolaid again? What is this 1875 and we are discussing the Communist Manifesto?

    At heart most people like capitalism. What they want is for capitalism to be fair - so no unfair advantages of birth, of wealth etc. They want hard work rewarded.

    What they don't want is bullshit economic theories about 'capital' and the 'politcal establishment' etc
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,179
    On Topic

    Good one Robert. Have to say i was completely unaware of Shulz's rating being so bad

    Do we know why?
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,796

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @TOPPING

    Well done on limiting your booze intake so successfully

    I am belatedly doing the same but hoping to find a medium course of still drinking at times but also having half the week entirely sober etc

    Question: how do you cope with the boredom? That is what vexes me, still. Booze used to agreeably fill an evening. Now the hours stretch. Yes I read and go to the gym and watch movies and that’s nice but wow there is a lot of time to fill, nonetheless

    Sometimes I just want to go to bed at 10pm even if I’m not tired because unconsciousness is less boring

    I haven't had a drink since NYE, this is my fourth time doing Dry January. Since doing it the first time I've found the amount I drink has dropped without any real effort on my part, largely by not drinking in the house and not going to the pub as much. I love alcohol as a social drug but I was never one for nailing a load of cans in front of the TV like mates of mine can do. But even the glass or two of wine or glass of whisky at home has dwindled to virtually nothing. I've found that in my 40s the hangovers are now so bad and long-lasting I just don't go to the pub as much as I used to either. From being 17 to late-30s it was three/four times a week, probably drinking a gallon a time. Now, thanks to using a drink tracking app I started using for my first Dry Jan, I find I average ten days drinking a month, and most of those days are only one or two units. I love a proper sesh in the pub with my mates but it takes me two or three days to get over it. I can cope with the headache, it's the two or three days of lethargy and increasingly bad hangxiety that have curbed by pub visits.

    So I have a lot more sober time these past few years. I love it. I read more - and more importantly, remember what I've read. I take longer, more frequent walks, which the dog appreciates. I try and go for a run a few times a week. I play the guitar - badly. I recently got into listening to podcasts. Plus there's always YouTube. I'm also considering whether I want to do a PhD part-time while working, but that way madness may well lie so I blow hot and cold with the notion.

    But I'm very rarely bored. Not like you were on a rainy Sunday afternoon in the 80s when I was growing up and there was nothing on TV. That was proper boredom.

    I go to bed when I'm tired, usually about 11 but two nights last week it was half 9. If that's boring, so be it - FOMO isn't a thing for me anymore!

    I've also cut down on caffeine - I have two builders teas first thing them that's me. As I've hit middle age my body just can't deal with alcohol and caffeine like it did when I was younger. I hit it hard when I was young, I shovelled everything into me I could get my hands on, but I'm glad those days are behind me. I just can't do it now. Nor do I want to.

    I wish I could go out on a Friday for a gallon without it wiping out my weekend, but sometimes you just wanna get pissed and talk rubbish with your mates, don't you? So I take the hit and the missus moaning at me for wasting my weekend...

    That's a long-winded way of saying I enjoyed getting hammered when I was young, but I prefer a clear head now, and I always manage to keep myself amused.
    Re the PhD. If it's on something you love doing then go for it, just choose your supervisors carefully. If you think one might be an arsehole, run a mile.* If you don't really really want to do it (just want everyone to call you Dr :wink:) then just buy one online :wink:

    If you do a PhD, it will be hell at some point, so you have to really want to do it. Probably more so part time as the hell bit will last longer - it will all last longer - and the "Oh shit I don't have time to get this wrapped up in time" feeling will be even more acute. But the sense of achievement from getting it finished is quite something.

    *One of my supervisors was a complete Jeremy Hunt, so that spoiled things a bit. I wasn't sure about him in my interview; should have listened to my instincts. I'd still have done a PhD, just done it somewhere else with different people.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,751
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @TOPPING

    Well done on limiting your booze intake so successfully

    I am belatedly doing the same but hoping to find a medium course of still drinking at times but also having half the week entirely sober etc

    Question: how do you cope with the boredom? That is what vexes me, still. Booze used to agreeably fill an evening. Now the hours stretch. Yes I read and go to the gym and watch movies and that’s nice but wow there is a lot of time to fill, nonetheless

    Sometimes I just want to go to bed at 10pm even if I’m not tired because unconsciousness is less boring

    You should take six months off, and do something really boring.
    (Become a trainee Buddhist monk, or a parcel picker at Amazon, etc.)

    The reset would work for a couple of years at least.
    On that score, I recently received much of my ability to taste, which had disappeared post Covid. It's now more of a struggle not to put on weight.
    Great news. Smells too?
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 3,919

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    A header that mentions the "neoliberal consensus" - good to see pieces recognising that states selling off civic assets may not be seen as a good deal by a majority of the public who like those assets and services and aren't profiting off of them being sold whole sale.

    I think we're getting into a position similar to the 20th century - the paradoxes of capitalism are coming home to roost and the inaction of states to safeguard the material needs of the average person is leading towards grievance and a willingness to embrace the far right, even if you don't like them. Liberals are unpopular because they refuse to deal with the issues, left wingers are unpopular because the apparatus of capital control most media and would lose out under a more left wing world so scream bloody hell about anyone to the left of Atilla the Hun. And the right are unpopular because their wish casting politics just can't be done.

    "embrace the far right"

    As Corbyn and his acolytes show, the far left also has significant power for the disaffected.
    But the entire force of capital, which includes the private media and the political establishment, go out of there way to make left wing policies solutions the equivalent of literal Stalinism whilst painting far right rhetoric as "common sense". The Overton window can only go one way for those people - it's the ratchet effect. So people seeing how impossible it is to get left wing solutions (and Corbyn is hardly far left, he proposed a social democratic policy platform that, when polled on issue by issue rather then as "Corbyn's policies", did have popular support) become disaffected and those who desire a far right solution get told it is always possible (because every party panders to them) and that when their policy preference is enacted and doesn't work that's because it wasn't done harshly enough and the answer is to go even more right wing.
    "But the entire force of capital". You been at the Koolaid again? What is this 1875 and we are discussing the Communist Manifesto?

    At heart most people like capitalism. What they want is for capitalism to be fair - so no unfair advantages of birth, of wealth etc. They want hard work rewarded.

    What they don't want is bullshit economic theories about 'capital' and the 'politcal establishment' etc
    Capitalism does not reward fairness or meritocracy - those things are not inherently capitalistic. The advantages of birth are backed into capitalism; inheritance whether in money or assets is the highest predictor of wealth later in life. People who work hard are not rewarded under capitalism. We recognised under Covid that their were such things as "essential workers" - who were they? Shop assistants, nurses, public servants and the like - are they the most well paid? Does a CEO or shareholder of a company work whatever ratio it has more than their lowest paid worker? Capitalism rewards those who help accumulate more capital for capitalists. To do otherwise is counter to capitalist mode of production.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,954
    Leon said:

    Fpt for @TOPPING

    Well done on limiting your booze intake so successfully

    I am belatedly doing the same but hoping to find a medium course of still drinking at times but also having half the week entirely sober etc

    Question: how do you cope with the boredom? That is what vexes me, still. Booze used to agreeably fill an evening. Now the hours stretch. Yes I read and go to the gym and watch movies and that’s nice but wow there is a lot of time to fill, nonetheless

    Sometimes I just want to go to bed at 10pm even if I’m not tired because unconsciousness is less boring

    This is indeed the main challenge with reducing one's drinking. I have the same problem.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,691

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @TOPPING

    Well done on limiting your booze intake so successfully

    I am belatedly doing the same but hoping to find a medium course of still drinking at times but also having half the week entirely sober etc

    Question: how do you cope with the boredom? That is what vexes me, still. Booze used to agreeably fill an evening. Now the hours stretch. Yes I read and go to the gym and watch movies and that’s nice but wow there is a lot of time to fill, nonetheless

    Sometimes I just want to go to bed at 10pm even if I’m not tired because unconsciousness is less boring

    I haven't had a drink since NYE, this is my fourth time doing Dry January. Since doing it the first time I've found the amount I drink has dropped without any real effort on my part, largely by not drinking in the house and not going to the pub as much. I love alcohol as a social drug but I was never one for nailing a load of cans in front of the TV like mates of mine can do. But even the glass or two of wine or glass of whisky at home has dwindled to virtually nothing. I've found that in my 40s the hangovers are now so bad and long-lasting I just don't go to the pub as much as I used to either. From being 17 to late-30s it was three/four times a week, probably drinking a gallon a time. Now, thanks to using a drink tracking app I started using for my first Dry Jan, I find I average ten days drinking a month, and most of those days are only one or two units. I love a proper sesh in the pub with my mates but it takes me two or three days to get over it. I can cope with the headache, it's the two or three days of lethargy and increasingly bad hangxiety that have curbed by pub visits.

    So I have a lot more sober time these past few years. I love it. I read more - and more importantly, remember what I've read. I take longer, more frequent walks, which the dog appreciates. I try and go for a run a few times a week. I play the guitar - badly. I recently got into listening to podcasts. Plus there's always YouTube. I'm also considering whether I want to do a PhD part-time while working, but that way madness may well lie so I blow hot and cold with the notion.

    But I'm very rarely bored. Not like you were on a rainy Sunday afternoon in the 80s when I was growing up and there was nothing on TV. That was proper boredom.

    I go to bed when I'm tired, usually about 11 but two nights last week it was half 9. If that's boring, so be it - FOMO isn't a thing for me anymore!

    I've also cut down on caffeine - I have two builders teas first thing them that's me. As I've hit middle age my body just can't deal with alcohol and caffeine like it did when I was younger. I hit it hard when I was young, I shovelled everything into me I could get my hands on, but I'm glad those days are behind me. I just can't do it now. Nor do I want to.

    I wish I could go out on a Friday for a gallon without it wiping out my weekend, but sometimes you just wanna get pissed and talk rubbish with your mates, don't you? So I take the hit and the missus moaning at me for wasting my weekend...

    That's a long-winded way of saying I enjoyed getting hammered when I was young, but I prefer a clear head now, and I always manage to keep myself amused.
    I had a dry January, though ended on Saturday a few days early for a Burns Supper.

    I too can't drink like I once did without feeling rotten the next day, and also get the hangxiety of which you speak if I do over do it.

    I don't drink if working the next day, which means 2 days normally per week, and then don't have more than 2 pints or half a bottle of wine. It's plenty to be social, and enough for any meal as an accompaniment.

    I don't find it useful to drink to fill time or to relax, as I always have things of interest needing attention..



  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,995
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @TOPPING

    Well done on limiting your booze intake so successfully

    I am belatedly doing the same but hoping to find a medium course of still drinking at times but also having half the week entirely sober etc

    Question: how do you cope with the boredom? That is what vexes me, still. Booze used to agreeably fill an evening. Now the hours stretch. Yes I read and go to the gym and watch movies and that’s nice but wow there is a lot of time to fill, nonetheless

    Sometimes I just want to go to bed at 10pm even if I’m not tired because unconsciousness is less boring

    You should take six months off, and do something really boring.
    (Become a trainee Buddhist monk, or a parcel picker at Amazon, etc.)

    The reset would work for a couple of years at least.
    On that score, I recently received much of my ability to taste, which had disappeared post Covid. It's now more of a struggle not to put on weight.
    Great news. Smells too?
    To some extent, yes.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,179
    Have to say i am surprised the gap between the 2 Tory Parties have narrowed from 17 to 14 in a week

    Deltapoll
    @DeltapollUK
    ·
    1h
    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
    Labour lead narrows to fourteen points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 29% (+1)
    Lab 43% (-2)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Other 19% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 26th - 29th January 2024
    Sample: 2,064 GB adults
    (Changes from 19th - 22nd January 2024)
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,445
    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @TOPPING

    Well done on limiting your booze intake so successfully

    I am belatedly doing the same but hoping to find a medium course of still drinking at times but also having half the week entirely sober etc

    Question: how do you cope with the boredom? That is what vexes me, still. Booze used to agreeably fill an evening. Now the hours stretch. Yes I read and go to the gym and watch movies and that’s nice but wow there is a lot of time to fill, nonetheless

    Sometimes I just want to go to bed at 10pm even if I’m not tired because unconsciousness is less boring

    For the last year, I've been having a 'dry month' every other month or so - at least nearly; five dry months in 2023.

    As for boredom; I find I read and code more instead of sitting in front of the TV. But everyone's different.
    We used to have things called "hobbies". My other half knits. I (like Callan) paint toy soldiers. Some people write for fun. Some people volunteer. I used to aggressively over-work but I've got out of that habit, I'm glad to say. Ideally, try something that a) you can do in the evenings and b) exercises a different part of your brain from the day job. The thing that piques your interest might be quite surprising (c.f. the toy soldiers).
    Moths is a bit weird too. But an OK thing for an insomniac to fill in those shitty waking hours at dead of night - at least it delivers some hard scientific data.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,995
    On things to do when retired, my wife (an ex teacher) recently became an Independent Visitor.

    It's a hugely valuable service for children in care, which ought to be better known, and there's a national shortage. While it requires potentially multi-year commitments, it doesn't take up a huge amount of time.
    https://ivnetwork.org.uk/become-an-iv/
  • Options
    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 353
    People should know that the limits to growth projections are spot on.... it tells me we are in for a rough ride the next 3-4 decades... very rough.


    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/be/Limits-to-growth-figure-35.svg/220px-Limits-to-growth-figure-35.svg.png


    https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:4748/1*r0B2D8Cl1syeudza8ORwwQ.png


    Every single academic conference I go to is doom laden. There is deep deep worry in the academic community about where current trends are taking us....

    So I teach on the MBA programme at a leading London business school. We visited a leading european car manufacurer this year... they had electrified one of their brands and sold thousand of cars they could not deliver... they had taken the money, but the copper, lithium, rare minerals and quality steel was in such short supply that it led to a crisis for the company. Anyway they were open about this. After I spoke to one of the top top execs of this firm and said: look out on the streets at the fleet of vehicles driving around. What is the likelihood of those being replaced 1:1 with electric or hydrogen by 2040 or 2050..... he said: "Nil... it isn't happening... mobility as we have known it since ww2 is going to become a luxury." I asked him what should be done.... he said "we have to redesign cities so the car isn't needed like today" 🤷

    The consumption opportunities and level of material prosperity people have become accustomed to over the last 80 years is an aberration historical terms and it is about to drop away.


  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,449

    Have to say i am surprised the gap between the 2 Tory Parties have narrowed from 17 to 14 in a week

    Deltapoll
    @DeltapollUK
    ·
    1h
    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
    Labour lead narrows to fourteen points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 29% (+1)
    Lab 43% (-2)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Other 19% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 26th - 29th January 2024
    Sample: 2,064 GB adults
    (Changes from 19th - 22nd January 2024)

    Bloody Datapoll and their annoying "other" lumping together.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,833
    Scott_xP said:

    @DeltapollUK

    Net approval for @Keir_Starmer falls by two percentage points since our last poll, while net approval for @RishiSunak is down by three points.


    What's interesting about that is that those two largely seem to be tracking each other, just with a wide gap between Sunak and Starmer.

    Once Starmer is in government he will drop and could rapidly find himself in the same place.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,445

    Have to say i am surprised the gap between the 2 Tory Parties have narrowed from 17 to 14 in a week

    Deltapoll
    @DeltapollUK
    ·
    1h
    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
    Labour lead narrows to fourteen points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 29% (+1)
    Lab 43% (-2)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Other 19% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 26th - 29th January 2024
    Sample: 2,064 GB adults
    (Changes from 19th - 22nd January 2024)

    Shit will be hugely lost when we have the first poll with both Labour and the Tories are in the 30's...
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 48,888

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @TOPPING

    Well done on limiting your booze intake so successfully

    I am belatedly doing the same but hoping to find a medium course of still drinking at times but also having half the week entirely sober etc

    Question: how do you cope with the boredom? That is what vexes me, still. Booze used to agreeably fill an evening. Now the hours stretch. Yes I read and go to the gym and watch movies and that’s nice but wow there is a lot of time to fill, nonetheless

    Sometimes I just want to go to bed at 10pm even if I’m not tired because unconsciousness is less boring

    I haven't had a drink since NYE, this is my fourth time doing Dry January. Since doing it the first time I've found the amount I drink has dropped without any real effort on my part, largely by not drinking in the house and not going to the pub as much. I love alcohol as a social drug but I was never one for nailing a load of cans in front of the TV like mates of mine can do. But even the glass or two of wine or glass of whisky at home has dwindled to virtually nothing. I've found that in my 40s the hangovers are now so bad and long-lasting I just don't go to the pub as much as I used to either. From being 17 to late-30s it was three/four times a week, probably drinking a gallon a time. Now, thanks to using a drink tracking app I started using for my first Dry Jan, I find I average ten days drinking a month, and most of those days are only one or two units. I love a proper sesh in the pub with my mates but it takes me two or three days to get over it. I can cope with the headache, it's the two or three days of lethargy and increasingly bad hangxiety that have curbed by pub visits.

    So I have a lot more sober time these past few years. I love it. I read more - and more importantly, remember what I've read. I take longer, more frequent walks, which the dog appreciates. I try and go for a run a few times a week. I play the guitar - badly. I recently got into listening to podcasts. Plus there's always YouTube. I'm also considering whether I want to do a PhD part-time while working, but that way madness may well lie so I blow hot and cold with the notion.

    But I'm very rarely bored. Not like you were on a rainy Sunday afternoon in the 80s when I was growing up and there was nothing on TV. That was proper boredom.

    I go to bed when I'm tired, usually about 11 but two nights last week it was half 9. If that's boring, so be it - FOMO isn't a thing for me anymore!

    I've also cut down on caffeine - I have two builders teas first thing them that's me. As I've hit middle age my body just can't deal with alcohol and caffeine like it did when I was younger. I hit it hard when I was young, I shovelled everything into me I could get my hands on, but I'm glad those days are behind me. I just can't do it now. Nor do I want to.

    I wish I could go out on a Friday for a gallon without it wiping out my weekend, but sometimes you just wanna get pissed and talk rubbish with your mates, don't you? So I take the hit and the missus moaning at me for wasting my weekend...

    That's a long-winded way of saying I enjoyed getting hammered when I was young, but I prefer a clear head now, and I always manage to keep myself amused.
    Good for you, sounds like you have it sorted

    Weird thing is I almost never get hangovers. I used to, but they faded away in my early 40s. I have to drink extreme amounts to get a proper hangover; indeed, that likely aided my drinking - I never paid a price the next morning (I have no idea why, someone once told me it was a BAD sign, who knows)
  • Options
    booksellerbookseller Posts: 431

    People should know that the limits to growth projections are spot on.... it tells me we are in for a rough ride the next 3-4 decades... very rough.


    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/be/Limits-to-growth-figure-35.svg/220px-Limits-to-growth-figure-35.svg.png


    https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:4748/1*r0B2D8Cl1syeudza8ORwwQ.png


    Every single academic conference I go to is doom laden. There is deep deep worry in the academic community about where current trends are taking us....

    So I teach on the MBA programme at a leading London business school. We visited a leading european car manufacurer this year... they had electrified one of their brands and sold thousand of cars they could not deliver... they had taken the money, but the copper, lithium, rare minerals and quality steel was in such short supply that it led to a crisis for the company. Anyway they were open about this. After I spoke to one of the top top execs of this firm and said: look out on the streets at the fleet of vehicles driving around. What is the likelihood of those being replaced 1:1 with electric or hydrogen by 2040 or 2050..... he said: "Nil... it isn't happening... mobility as we have known it since ww2 is going to become a luxury." I asked him what should be done.... he said "we have to redesign cities so the car isn't needed like today" 🤷

    The consumption opportunities and level of material prosperity people have become accustomed to over the last 80 years is an aberration historical terms and it is about to drop away.


    It's the speed of collapse that is of most concern...punctuated equilibrium means you get no change for ages and then...boom.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,024
    Leon said:

    Fpt for @TOPPING

    Well done on limiting your booze intake so successfully

    I am belatedly doing the same but hoping to find a medium course of still drinking at times but also having half the week entirely sober etc

    Question: how do you cope with the boredom? That is what vexes me, still. Booze used to agreeably fill an evening. Now the hours stretch. Yes I read and go to the gym and watch movies and that’s nice but wow there is a lot of time to fill, nonetheless

    Sometimes I just want to go to bed at 10pm even if I’m not tired because unconsciousness is less boring

    People are remarkably diverse. I am, retired, don't drink (medical reasons), don't watch TV, would quite like to be bored just occasionally but there isn't time.
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 3,919

    People should know that the limits to growth projections are spot on.... it tells me we are in for a rough ride the next 3-4 decades... very rough.


    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/be/Limits-to-growth-figure-35.svg/220px-Limits-to-growth-figure-35.svg.png


    https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:4748/1*r0B2D8Cl1syeudza8ORwwQ.png


    Every single academic conference I go to is doom laden. There is deep deep worry in the academic community about where current trends are taking us....

    So I teach on the MBA programme at a leading London business school. We visited a leading european car manufacurer this year... they had electrified one of their brands and sold thousand of cars they could not deliver... they had taken the money, but the copper, lithium, rare minerals and quality steel was in such short supply that it led to a crisis for the company. Anyway they were open about this. After I spoke to one of the top top execs of this firm and said: look out on the streets at the fleet of vehicles driving around. What is the likelihood of those being replaced 1:1 with electric or hydrogen by 2040 or 2050..... he said: "Nil... it isn't happening... mobility as we have known it since ww2 is going to become a luxury." I asked him what should be done.... he said "we have to redesign cities so the car isn't needed like today" 🤷

    The consumption opportunities and level of material prosperity people have become accustomed to over the last 80 years is an aberration historical terms and it is about to drop away.


    Of course it is - it was based on the voracious burning of fossil fuels (that were unsustainable) and the capitalist model of squeezing maximum profit from labour (something that was regulated by the social state through wealth redistribution, and now is unregulated so the profit motive is in full control).

    Even beyond these trends, you have the reality of climate change making our food security future... pretty bleak

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1433829191405826052.html
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,179

    January weight management update: -8.9kg

    Wow that is a good amount.

    Congratulations.

    How much do you want to lose?

    I lost 33KG from June 2022 to June 2023

    Hardest bit is keeping it off for me. (Had gained 5KG BY 31/12/23) and as at this morning only lost 1KG of that
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,913
    148grss said:

    People should know that the limits to growth projections are spot on.... it tells me we are in for a rough ride the next 3-4 decades... very rough.


    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/be/Limits-to-growth-figure-35.svg/220px-Limits-to-growth-figure-35.svg.png


    https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:4748/1*r0B2D8Cl1syeudza8ORwwQ.png


    Every single academic conference I go to is doom laden. There is deep deep worry in the academic community about where current trends are taking us....

    So I teach on the MBA programme at a leading London business school. We visited a leading european car manufacurer this year... they had electrified one of their brands and sold thousand of cars they could not deliver... they had taken the money, but the copper, lithium, rare minerals and quality steel was in such short supply that it led to a crisis for the company. Anyway they were open about this. After I spoke to one of the top top execs of this firm and said: look out on the streets at the fleet of vehicles driving around. What is the likelihood of those being replaced 1:1 with electric or hydrogen by 2040 or 2050..... he said: "Nil... it isn't happening... mobility as we have known it since ww2 is going to become a luxury." I asked him what should be done.... he said "we have to redesign cities so the car isn't needed like today" 🤷

    The consumption opportunities and level of material prosperity people have become accustomed to over the last 80 years is an aberration historical terms and it is about to drop away.


    Of course it is - it was based on the voracious burning of fossil fuels (that were unsustainable) and the capitalist model of squeezing maximum profit from labour (something that was regulated by the social state through wealth redistribution, and now is unregulated so the profit motive is in full control).

    Even beyond these trends, you have the reality of climate change making our food security future... pretty bleak

    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1433829191405826052.html
    Capitalism is irrelevant. You can't have 8 billion people living western lifestyles without needing to use a lot of energy, no matter who owns the means of production.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,179

    Have to say i am surprised the gap between the 2 Tory Parties have narrowed from 17 to 14 in a week

    Deltapoll
    @DeltapollUK
    ·
    1h
    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
    Labour lead narrows to fourteen points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 29% (+1)
    Lab 43% (-2)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Other 19% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 26th - 29th January 2024
    Sample: 2,064 GB adults
    (Changes from 19th - 22nd January 2024)

    Shit will be hugely lost when we have the first poll with both Labour and the Tories are in the 30's...
    It will most likely be "an outlier"
  • Options
    CleitophonCleitophon Posts: 353

    Have to say i am surprised the gap between the 2 Tory Parties have narrowed from 17 to 14 in a week

    Deltapoll
    @DeltapollUK
    ·
    1h
    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
    Labour lead narrows to fourteen points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 29% (+1)
    Lab 43% (-2)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Other 19% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 26th - 29th January 2024
    Sample: 2,064 GB adults
    (Changes from 19th - 22nd January 2024)

    Shit will be hugely lost when we have the first poll with both Labour and the Tories are in the 30's...
    Delta poll were at 14 before new year too... don't get too focused on the individual measurement but the trend across multiple polling companies. Omnisis is for instance also favorable to the tories.... but the electoral landscape is a hellscape for the tories....
  • Options
    TimS said:

    Have to say i am surprised the gap between the 2 Tory Parties have narrowed from 17 to 14 in a week

    Deltapoll
    @DeltapollUK
    ·
    1h
    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
    Labour lead narrows to fourteen points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 29% (+1)
    Lab 43% (-2)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Other 19% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 26th - 29th January 2024
    Sample: 2,064 GB adults
    (Changes from 19th - 22nd January 2024)

    Bloody Datapoll and their annoying "other" lumping together.
    This may help

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1751942592403566782?t=Wh5a_8FD1TCPIeIK-IgOvw&s=19
  • Options
    MJWMJW Posts: 1,499
    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    A header that mentions the "neoliberal consensus" - good to see pieces recognising that states selling off civic assets may not be seen as a good deal by a majority of the public who like those assets and services and aren't profiting off of them being sold whole sale.

    I think we're getting into a position similar to the 20th century - the paradoxes of capitalism are coming home to roost and the inaction of states to safeguard the material needs of the average person is leading towards grievance and a willingness to embrace the far right, even if you don't like them. Liberals are unpopular because they refuse to deal with the issues, left wingers are unpopular because the apparatus of capital control most media and would lose out under a more left wing world so scream bloody hell about anyone to the left of Atilla the Hun. And the right are unpopular because their wish casting politics just can't be done.

    "embrace the far right"

    As Corbyn and his acolytes show, the far left also has significant power for the disaffected.
    But the entire force of capital, which includes the private media and the political establishment, go out of there way to make left wing policies solutions the equivalent of literal Stalinism whilst painting far right rhetoric as "common sense". The Overton window can only go one way for those people - it's the ratchet effect. So people seeing how impossible it is to get left wing solutions (and Corbyn is hardly far left, he proposed a social democratic policy platform that, when polled on issue by issue rather then as "Corbyn's policies", did have popular support) become disaffected and those who desire a far right solution get told it is always possible (because every party panders to them) and that when their policy preference is enacted and doesn't work that's because it wasn't done harshly enough and the answer is to go even more right wing.
    I mean Corbyn was/is far left - he has a record and a history that attests to that. He was leading a party that is not and is much more social democrat, and many of his team and shadow cabinet weren't far left, so both manifestos were to varying degrees attempts to manage and reconcile that. But when left to his own devices and allowed to speak freely ('reopen the coal mines/maximum wage'), or in areas he regarded as his purview (foreign policy), the man himself very much was and is far left.

    Which is one reason why he was so personally unpopular, while Labour policies and its overall brand often weren't.

    People eventually smelt a rat when attempting to present someone with an endless history of far left positions, and a fanbase who constantly celebrated that fact, as a bit to the left of Labour but essentially a social democrat.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,179
    TimS said:

    Have to say i am surprised the gap between the 2 Tory Parties have narrowed from 17 to 14 in a week

    Deltapoll
    @DeltapollUK
    ·
    1h
    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
    Labour lead narrows to fourteen points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 29% (+1)
    Lab 43% (-2)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Other 19% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 26th - 29th January 2024
    Sample: 2,064 GB adults
    (Changes from 19th - 22nd January 2024)

    Bloody Datapoll and their annoying "other" lumping together.
    Yes lumping Reform and Greens together is rubbish
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,821
    edited January 29
    Anyone picked up on this yet

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/science-minister-resigned-afford-mortgage-rise

    Minister resigns because his new mortgage repayments are unaffordable were he to remain a minister - so he’s left to do better paid work elsewhere

    The article and his blog post is rather daming (without faint praise)
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,956

    Have to say i am surprised the gap between the 2 Tory Parties have narrowed from 17 to 14 in a week

    Deltapoll
    @DeltapollUK
    ·
    1h
    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
    Labour lead narrows to fourteen points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 29% (+1)
    Lab 43% (-2)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Other 19% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 26th - 29th January 2024
    Sample: 2,064 GB adults
    (Changes from 19th - 22nd January 2024)

    Vaping and Rishi fasting! A big splash on BBC WATO today on what a hero Rishi is for fasting.

    Beer and curry fans please explain.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,995

    January weight management update: -8.9kg

    Wow that is a good amount.

    Congratulations.

    How much do you want to lose?

    I lost 33KG from June 2022 to June 2023

    Hardest bit is keeping it off for me. (Had gained 5KG BY 31/12/23) and as at this morning only lost 1KG of that
    Blimey.
    You are now somewhatreducedjohnknowls.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,977
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @TOPPING

    Well done on limiting your booze intake so successfully

    I am belatedly doing the same but hoping to find a medium course of still drinking at times but also having half the week entirely sober etc

    Question: how do you cope with the boredom? That is what vexes me, still. Booze used to agreeably fill an evening. Now the hours stretch. Yes I read and go to the gym and watch movies and that’s nice but wow there is a lot of time to fill, nonetheless

    Sometimes I just want to go to bed at 10pm even if I’m not tired because unconsciousness is less boring

    I haven't had a drink since NYE, this is my fourth time doing Dry January. Since doing it the first time I've found the amount I drink has dropped without any real effort on my part, largely by not drinking in the house and not going to the pub as much. I love alcohol as a social drug but I was never one for nailing a load of cans in front of the TV like mates of mine can do. But even the glass or two of wine or glass of whisky at home has dwindled to virtually nothing. I've found that in my 40s the hangovers are now so bad and long-lasting I just don't go to the pub as much as I used to either. From being 17 to late-30s it was three/four times a week, probably drinking a gallon a time. Now, thanks to using a drink tracking app I started using for my first Dry Jan, I find I average ten days drinking a month, and most of those days are only one or two units. I love a proper sesh in the pub with my mates but it takes me two or three days to get over it. I can cope with the headache, it's the two or three days of lethargy and increasingly bad hangxiety that have curbed by pub visits.

    So I have a lot more sober time these past few years. I love it. I read more - and more importantly, remember what I've read. I take longer, more frequent walks, which the dog appreciates. I try and go for a run a few times a week. I play the guitar - badly. I recently got into listening to podcasts. Plus there's always YouTube. I'm also considering whether I want to do a PhD part-time while working, but that way madness may well lie so I blow hot and cold with the notion.

    But I'm very rarely bored. Not like you were on a rainy Sunday afternoon in the 80s when I was growing up and there was nothing on TV. That was proper boredom.

    I go to bed when I'm tired, usually about 11 but two nights last week it was half 9. If that's boring, so be it - FOMO isn't a thing for me anymore!

    I've also cut down on caffeine - I have two builders teas first thing them that's me. As I've hit middle age my body just can't deal with alcohol and caffeine like it did when I was younger. I hit it hard when I was young, I shovelled everything into me I could get my hands on, but I'm glad those days are behind me. I just can't do it now. Nor do I want to.

    I wish I could go out on a Friday for a gallon without it wiping out my weekend, but sometimes you just wanna get pissed and talk rubbish with your mates, don't you? So I take the hit and the missus moaning at me for wasting my weekend...

    That's a long-winded way of saying I enjoyed getting hammered when I was young, but I prefer a clear head now, and I always manage to keep myself amused.
    I had a dry January, though ended on Saturday a few days early for a Burns Supper.

    I too can't drink like I once did without feeling rotten the next day, and also get the hangxiety of which you speak if I do over do it.

    I don't drink if working the next day, which means 2 days normally per week, and then don't have more than 2 pints or half a bottle of wine. It's plenty to be social, and enough for any meal as an accompaniment.

    I don't find it useful to drink to fill time or to relax, as I always have things of interest needing attention..



    Like you I cannot drink what I used to be able to. I could easily demolish three bottles of wine on a Saturday or a Sunday if I was in the house.

    Now a couple bottles of my medium strength homebrew is enough to send me to sleep.

    I also don't drink anywhere near what I used to, in fact rarely drink in the house now, as I am fed up of waking up at 3AM and not being able to go back to sleep. Even if after a couple of bottles of modest strength beer,

    The national trend, since 2005, is a steady decline in alcohol consumption in the UK.

  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 11,024

    People should know that the limits to growth projections are spot on.... it tells me we are in for a rough ride the next 3-4 decades... very rough.


    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/be/Limits-to-growth-figure-35.svg/220px-Limits-to-growth-figure-35.svg.png


    https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:4748/1*r0B2D8Cl1syeudza8ORwwQ.png


    Every single academic conference I go to is doom laden. There is deep deep worry in the academic community about where current trends are taking us....

    So I teach on the MBA programme at a leading London business school. We visited a leading european car manufacurer this year... they had electrified one of their brands and sold thousand of cars they could not deliver... they had taken the money, but the copper, lithium, rare minerals and quality steel was in such short supply that it led to a crisis for the company. Anyway they were open about this. After I spoke to one of the top top execs of this firm and said: look out on the streets at the fleet of vehicles driving around. What is the likelihood of those being replaced 1:1 with electric or hydrogen by 2040 or 2050..... he said: "Nil... it isn't happening... mobility as we have known it since ww2 is going to become a luxury." I asked him what should be done.... he said "we have to redesign cities so the car isn't needed like today" 🤷

    The consumption opportunities and level of material prosperity people have become accustomed to over the last 80 years is an aberration historical terms and it is about to drop away.


    I am no sort of leftist, but if we look back eg 25 years to 1999, we were not exactly living on gruel and sending our children to school shoeless in the snow.

    What the world needs is not for the rich world to get disproportionately richer, it is for the poorer world to catch up with the middling/richer world. The is essential not only because it is right, but also because there is no other way to stem the increasing flow of economic and political migrants.
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,835
    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    A header that mentions the "neoliberal consensus" - good to see pieces recognising that states selling off civic assets may not be seen as a good deal by a majority of the public who like those assets and services and aren't profiting off of them being sold whole sale.

    I think we're getting into a position similar to the 20th century - the paradoxes of capitalism are coming home to roost and the inaction of states to safeguard the material needs of the average person is leading towards grievance and a willingness to embrace the far right, even if you don't like them. Liberals are unpopular because they refuse to deal with the issues, left wingers are unpopular because the apparatus of capital control most media and would lose out under a more left wing world so scream bloody hell about anyone to the left of Atilla the Hun. And the right are unpopular because their wish casting politics just can't be done.

    "embrace the far right"

    As Corbyn and his acolytes show, the far left also has significant power for the disaffected.
    But the entire force of capital, which includes the private media and the political establishment, go out of there way to make left wing policies solutions the equivalent of literal Stalinism whilst painting far right rhetoric as "common sense". The Overton window can only go one way for those people - it's the ratchet effect. So people seeing how impossible it is to get left wing solutions (and Corbyn is hardly far left, he proposed a social democratic policy platform that, when polled on issue by issue rather then as "Corbyn's policies", did have popular support) become disaffected and those who desire a far right solution get told it is always possible (because every party panders to them) and that when their policy preference is enacted and doesn't work that's because it wasn't done harshly enough and the answer is to go even more right wing.
    "But the entire force of capital". You been at the Koolaid again? What is this 1875 and we are discussing the Communist Manifesto?

    At heart most people like capitalism. What they want is for capitalism to be fair - so no unfair advantages of birth, of wealth etc. They want hard work rewarded.

    What they don't want is bullshit economic theories about 'capital' and the 'politcal establishment' etc
    Capitalism does not reward fairness or meritocracy - those things are not inherently capitalistic. The advantages of birth are backed into capitalism; inheritance whether in money or assets is the highest predictor of wealth later in life. People who work hard are not rewarded under capitalism. We recognised under Covid that their were such things as "essential workers" - who were they? Shop assistants, nurses, public servants and the like - are they the most well paid? Does a CEO or shareholder of a company work whatever ratio it has more than their lowest paid worker? Capitalism rewards those who help accumulate more capital for capitalists. To do otherwise is counter to capitalist mode of production.
    So what is your solution then?

    Hard work is rewarded - but yes every job comes with its own salary, and some of them are grossly unfair. And yet. Is it right for a CEO to earn millions? Maybe, if they can show that their input actual generates substantially more than that.

    Should lower paid jobs be better paid? Yes - in an ideal world people would not need extra money from government if they are working a 37.5h week. But is it right that I earn more as a Uni lecturer than someone that works in retail? I bring a lifetime of experience of my subject to the role, you can be trained for a job on the tills and stacking shelves in days.

    Capitalism cannot be left to run without check, for sure, but I have not seen a better arrangement suggested. What do you propose?

  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,604
    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    Fpt for @TOPPING

    Well done on limiting your booze intake so successfully

    I am belatedly doing the same but hoping to find a medium course of still drinking at times but also having half the week entirely sober etc

    Question: how do you cope with the boredom? That is what vexes me, still. Booze used to agreeably fill an evening. Now the hours stretch. Yes I read and go to the gym and watch movies and that’s nice but wow there is a lot of time to fill, nonetheless

    Sometimes I just want to go to bed at 10pm even if I’m not tired because unconsciousness is less boring

    For the last year, I've been having a 'dry month' every other month or so - at least nearly; five dry months in 2023.

    As for boredom; I find I read and code more instead of sitting in front of the TV. But everyone's different.
    We used to have things called "hobbies". My other half knits. I (like Callan) paint toy soldiers. Some people write for fun. Some people volunteer. I used to aggressively over-work but I've got out of that habit, I'm glad to say. Ideally, try something that a) you can do in the evenings and b) exercises a different part of your brain from the day job. The thing that piques your interest might be quite surprising (c.f. the toy soldiers).
    Great advice. When I was working, I would end the day mentally exhausted but physically untired. That equated to lack of sleep. There were two solutions: exercise (walking, at the time, each evening), or drinking.

    Now I'm more of a man of leisure, I do loads of exercise, and end up physically tired and mentally fresh - also equating lack of sleep. I therefore try to do 'mental' stuff as well for balance: coding, writing, arguing on PB... ;)
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 8,592
    Michelle O'Neill, who would be the First Minister of Northern Ireland if the Assembly was sitting, was on +6% for the last poll I've seen (Aug 2023).
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,136
    edited January 29
    eek said:

    Anyone picked up on this yet

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/science-minister-resigned-afford-mortgage-rise

    Minister resigns because his new mortgage repayments are unaffordable were he to remain a minister - so he’s left to do better paid work elsewhere

    The article and his blog post is rather daming (without faint praise)

    £800 to £2000 sounds like a weirdly large mortgage hike to me. I can only assume he's not paid any capital off at all and has failed to remortgage moving to the SVR... which is quite honestly his own fault for not remortgaging.

    Also £2,000 PCM should be eminently affordable on a ministerial salary.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,445

    Have to say i am surprised the gap between the 2 Tory Parties have narrowed from 17 to 14 in a week

    Deltapoll
    @DeltapollUK
    ·
    1h
    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
    Labour lead narrows to fourteen points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 29% (+1)
    Lab 43% (-2)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Other 19% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 26th - 29th January 2024
    Sample: 2,064 GB adults
    (Changes from 19th - 22nd January 2024)

    Shit will be hugely lost when we have the first poll with both Labour and the Tories are in the 30's...
    It will most likely be "an outlier"
    Sure the SKS fans will say "nothing to see here...."!
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,933
    edited January 29
    algarkirk said:

    People should know that the limits to growth projections are spot on.... it tells me we are in for a rough ride the next 3-4 decades... very rough.


    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/be/Limits-to-growth-figure-35.svg/220px-Limits-to-growth-figure-35.svg.png


    https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:4748/1*r0B2D8Cl1syeudza8ORwwQ.png


    Every single academic conference I go to is doom laden. There is deep deep worry in the academic community about where current trends are taking us....

    So I teach on the MBA programme at a leading London business school. We visited a leading european car manufacurer this year... they had electrified one of their brands and sold thousand of cars they could not deliver... they had taken the money, but the copper, lithium, rare minerals and quality steel was in such short supply that it led to a crisis for the company. Anyway they were open about this. After I spoke to one of the top top execs of this firm and said: look out on the streets at the fleet of vehicles driving around. What is the likelihood of those being replaced 1:1 with electric or hydrogen by 2040 or 2050..... he said: "Nil... it isn't happening... mobility as we have known it since ww2 is going to become a luxury." I asked him what should be done.... he said "we have to redesign cities so the car isn't needed like today" 🤷

    The consumption opportunities and level of material prosperity people have become accustomed to over the last 80 years is an aberration historical terms and it is about to drop away.


    I am no sort of leftist, but if we look back eg 25 years to 1999, we were not exactly living on gruel and sending our children to school shoeless in the snow.

    What the world needs is not for the rich world to get disproportionately richer, it is for the poorer world to catch up with the middling/richer world. The is essential not only because it is right, but also because there is no other way to stem the increasing flow of economic and political migrants.
    Talking of the rich world Rashford fined £650,000 for going clubbing

    https://metro.co.uk/2024/01/28/man-utds-marcus-rashford-fined-650-000-nightclub-visit-20185985/
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,604
    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    A header that mentions the "neoliberal consensus" - good to see pieces recognising that states selling off civic assets may not be seen as a good deal by a majority of the public who like those assets and services and aren't profiting off of them being sold whole sale.

    I think we're getting into a position similar to the 20th century - the paradoxes of capitalism are coming home to roost and the inaction of states to safeguard the material needs of the average person is leading towards grievance and a willingness to embrace the far right, even if you don't like them. Liberals are unpopular because they refuse to deal with the issues, left wingers are unpopular because the apparatus of capital control most media and would lose out under a more left wing world so scream bloody hell about anyone to the left of Atilla the Hun. And the right are unpopular because their wish casting politics just can't be done.

    "embrace the far right"

    As Corbyn and his acolytes show, the far left also has significant power for the disaffected.
    But the entire force of capital, which includes the private media and the political establishment, go out of there way to make left wing policies solutions the equivalent of literal Stalinism whilst painting far right rhetoric as "common sense". The Overton window can only go one way for those people - it's the ratchet effect. So people seeing how impossible it is to get left wing solutions (and Corbyn is hardly far left, he proposed a social democratic policy platform that, when polled on issue by issue rather then as "Corbyn's policies", did have popular support) become disaffected and those who desire a far right solution get told it is always possible (because every party panders to them) and that when their policy preference is enacted and doesn't work that's because it wasn't done harshly enough and the answer is to go even more right wing.
    Corbyn's problems were not his policies; many people could have lived with them. Corbyn's problem was Corbyn; in particular, his friends, who often seem to be rather against us. Venezuela being a road I'd rather the country not travel down, as one example. It led many (well, myself) to assume that his policies would become somewhat harder once in power. The same accusation can be made to the right, as well - people hiding unpopular policies before an election.

    It's a shame for the left that when they actually get some left-wing policies, the salesman for those policies was an anti-Semite with very dodgy 'friends'.

    I've consistently said on here for years that we need to pay more taxes in order to improve public services. I'd be much happier with Starmer if he came out to say that before the GE, because it would mean he's being truthful.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,240
    Leon said:

    Yes, that’s surely criminal. Slam dunk
    Forged cheques? Yes but only if they know who forged them. Otherwise, this might exonerate certain players.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,956

    Have to say i am surprised the gap between the 2 Tory Parties have narrowed from 17 to 14 in a week

    Deltapoll
    @DeltapollUK
    ·
    1h
    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
    Labour lead narrows to fourteen points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 29% (+1)
    Lab 43% (-2)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Other 19% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 26th - 29th January 2024
    Sample: 2,064 GB adults
    (Changes from 19th - 22nd January 2024)

    Shit will be hugely lost when we have the first poll with both Labour and the Tories are in the 30's...
    It will most likely be "an outlier"
    Sure the SKS fans will say "nothing to see here...."!
    Starmer has a fan?

    My Tory majority of 20 now looking more comfortable with usual swingback.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,604
    kinabalu said:

    148grss said:

    A header that mentions the "neoliberal consensus" - good to see pieces recognising that states selling off civic assets may not be seen as a good deal by a majority of the public who like those assets and services and aren't profiting off of them being sold whole sale.

    I think we're getting into a position similar to the 20th century - the paradoxes of capitalism are coming home to roost and the inaction of states to safeguard the material needs of the average person is leading towards grievance and a willingness to embrace the far right, even if you don't like them. Liberals are unpopular because they refuse to deal with the issues, left wingers are unpopular because the apparatus of capital control most media and would lose out under a more left wing world so scream bloody hell about anyone to the left of Atilla the Hun. And the right are unpopular because their wish casting politics just can't be done.

    "embrace the far right"

    As Corbyn and his acolytes show, the far left also has significant power for the disaffected.
    Far less so than the far right, sadly.

    (Snip)
    I'm far from convinced that's correct. I'd make a firm guess that most of the people going on pro-Palestine/Hamas marches are left-wing, and they've been mobilised very successfully. The one far right march I've encountered (*) was about six men surrounded by dozens of police (*)

    (*) Two, if an Orange Order march in Liverpool is 'right' wing. Those guys looked so stern and unhappy I wondered if they'd be happier and more content just being at home in front of the TV...
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,179
    Current opinion Polls seem to me to have

    Lowest Labour leads

    Savanta
    Opinium
    Techne
    Delta Poll
    and More in Common

    Highest Labour leads

    You Gov
    We Think

    In the middle

    Redfield and Wilton Strategies
    Ipsos

    Do we know why we are consistently getting mid teen leads from 1st group and Mid to high 20s from 2nd group?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,913
    edited January 29
    algarkirk said:

    People should know that the limits to growth projections are spot on.... it tells me we are in for a rough ride the next 3-4 decades... very rough.


    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/be/Limits-to-growth-figure-35.svg/220px-Limits-to-growth-figure-35.svg.png


    https://miro.medium.com/v2/resize:fit:4748/1*r0B2D8Cl1syeudza8ORwwQ.png


    Every single academic conference I go to is doom laden. There is deep deep worry in the academic community about where current trends are taking us....

    So I teach on the MBA programme at a leading London business school. We visited a leading european car manufacurer this year... they had electrified one of their brands and sold thousand of cars they could not deliver... they had taken the money, but the copper, lithium, rare minerals and quality steel was in such short supply that it led to a crisis for the company. Anyway they were open about this. After I spoke to one of the top top execs of this firm and said: look out on the streets at the fleet of vehicles driving around. What is the likelihood of those being replaced 1:1 with electric or hydrogen by 2040 or 2050..... he said: "Nil... it isn't happening... mobility as we have known it since ww2 is going to become a luxury." I asked him what should be done.... he said "we have to redesign cities so the car isn't needed like today" 🤷

    The consumption opportunities and level of material prosperity people have become accustomed to over the last 80 years is an aberration historical terms and it is about to drop away.


    I am no sort of leftist, but if we look back eg 25 years to 1999, we were not exactly living on gruel and sending our children to school shoeless in the snow.

    What the world needs is not for the rich world to get disproportionately richer, it is for the poorer world to catch up with the middling/richer world. The is essential not only because it is right, but also because there is no other way to stem the increasing flow of economic and political migrants.
    The flow of migrants could be stemmed very easily if there were the political will to do it. You don't have to remake the world.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,445

    Have to say i am surprised the gap between the 2 Tory Parties have narrowed from 17 to 14 in a week

    Deltapoll
    @DeltapollUK
    ·
    1h
    🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨
    Labour lead narrows to fourteen points in the latest results from Deltapoll.
    Con 29% (+1)
    Lab 43% (-2)
    Lib Dem 10% (+1)
    Other 19% (+2)
    Fieldwork: 26th - 29th January 2024
    Sample: 2,064 GB adults
    (Changes from 19th - 22nd January 2024)

    Shit will be hugely lost when we have the first poll with both Labour and the Tories are in the 30's...
    It will most likely be "an outlier"
    Sure the SKS fans will say "nothing to see here...."!
    Starmer has a fan?

    My Tory majority of 20 now looking more comfortable with usual swingback.
    Fun and games will happen when Labour gets to a point where it has no majority.

    Interesting questions: "Who will you have a coalition with, Labour?"
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 3,919

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    148grss said:

    A header that mentions the "neoliberal consensus" - good to see pieces recognising that states selling off civic assets may not be seen as a good deal by a majority of the public who like those assets and services and aren't profiting off of them being sold whole sale.

    I think we're getting into a position similar to the 20th century - the paradoxes of capitalism are coming home to roost and the inaction of states to safeguard the material needs of the average person is leading towards grievance and a willingness to embrace the far right, even if you don't like them. Liberals are unpopular because they refuse to deal with the issues, left wingers are unpopular because the apparatus of capital control most media and would lose out under a more left wing world so scream bloody hell about anyone to the left of Atilla the Hun. And the right are unpopular because their wish casting politics just can't be done.

    "embrace the far right"

    As Corbyn and his acolytes show, the far left also has significant power for the disaffected.
    But the entire force of capital, which includes the private media and the political establishment, go out of there way to make left wing policies solutions the equivalent of literal Stalinism whilst painting far right rhetoric as "common sense". The Overton window can only go one way for those people - it's the ratchet effect. So people seeing how impossible it is to get left wing solutions (and Corbyn is hardly far left, he proposed a social democratic policy platform that, when polled on issue by issue rather then as "Corbyn's policies", did have popular support) become disaffected and those who desire a far right solution get told it is always possible (because every party panders to them) and that when their policy preference is enacted and doesn't work that's because it wasn't done harshly enough and the answer is to go even more right wing.
    "But the entire force of capital". You been at the Koolaid again? What is this 1875 and we are discussing the Communist Manifesto?

    At heart most people like capitalism. What they want is for capitalism to be fair - so no unfair advantages of birth, of wealth etc. They want hard work rewarded.

    What they don't want is bullshit economic theories about 'capital' and the 'politcal establishment' etc
    Capitalism does not reward fairness or meritocracy - those things are not inherently capitalistic. The advantages of birth are backed into capitalism; inheritance whether in money or assets is the highest predictor of wealth later in life. People who work hard are not rewarded under capitalism. We recognised under Covid that their were such things as "essential workers" - who were they? Shop assistants, nurses, public servants and the like - are they the most well paid? Does a CEO or shareholder of a company work whatever ratio it has more than their lowest paid worker? Capitalism rewards those who help accumulate more capital for capitalists. To do otherwise is counter to capitalist mode of production.
    So what is your solution then?

    Hard work is rewarded - but yes every job comes with its own salary, and some of them are grossly unfair. And yet. Is it right for a CEO to earn millions? Maybe, if they can show that their input actual generates substantially more than that.

    Should lower paid jobs be better paid? Yes - in an ideal world people would not need extra money from government if they are working a 37.5h week. But is it right that I earn more as a Uni lecturer than someone that works in retail? I bring a lifetime of experience of my subject to the role, you can be trained for a job on the tills and stacking shelves in days.

    Capitalism cannot be left to run without check, for sure, but I have not seen a better arrangement suggested. What do you propose?

    From each according to their ability, to each according to their needs - I do not see why profit motive is necessary or why the private mass accumulation of capital is acceptable. What that means practically? If you're in favour of a state that would mean, in part, state management of resources, workers councils who own the means of production, the seizing and redistribution of assets from the rich to the poor, etc. etc. If you're not in favour of a state (personally I'm not) you would do what the anarchists did in places like Spain at the outbreak of the civil war and what is happening in Rojava now; community and workers councils making democratic decisions about issues and deciding what to do and trade for themselves. Is this Utopian - yes, of course.

    I would be happy in the mean time for more social democratic reform, wealth redistribution, empowerment of unions and individual workers and an increased social safety net. These are the things that would tackle the immediate problems that the "free market" are clearly making worse - inflation (to a degree, climate change will increase the scarcity of lots of essential resources), housing, poverty and malnourishment, etc.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,604
    Can I just say it wasn't me. ;)

    "Fridge-carrying marathon runner stopped by police"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy7wq4y9w5jo
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,227

    Can I just say it wasn't me. ;)

    "Fridge-carrying marathon runner stopped by police"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy7wq4y9w5jo

    Boris?
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