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November the Betfair favourite for the General Election – politicalbetting.com
November the Betfair favourite for the General Election – politicalbetting.com
There is little doubt that this market is going to see a lot of activity in the coming months because Sunak or his successor has to go to the country before the end of January 2025.
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Overran the edit ticker:
I still hold my theory for May, between GE and VoNC, Rishi makes his calculation on fighting the main event rather than being weakened, but what do I know?
Off-topic, giving Mrs Rata a short snoring holiday to drop off, finished off the Mr Bates drama.A lot to think on, but the actual number affected in some way, not just the convicted but those PO took action against:
3500 SPMs.
3500.
I know it was over years and the offices with SPMs may have had multiple in that time but.
That is a hell of a portion of the entire SPM base
January 2025, btw, and goodnight.
‘Project Sparrow’ was formed to remove the forensic accountants who uncovered the scandal
Newly released documents show that Post Office chiefs secretly ditched forensic accountants who found problems in the Horizon IT system – with the full knowledge of David Cameron’s coalition government."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/cameron-government-post-office-scandal-b2485261.html
I wasn't aware there was a Civil Servant on the Board. I had always assumed that the CS would escape censure over the Scandal on grounds of anonymity, but if they were representing the Government at Board level and instrumental in the cover-up there is no reason why the individuals involved should not be named, and if appropriate, charged along with the rest of the gang.
My instinctive reaction was right. Most of those accused were of previous good character, and of course there was a vetting procedure, so why would so many have gone wrong?
We now know they didn't. The PO went wrong, criminally wrong.
Let's hope the CPS doesn;t hold back with the charges.
Oh, and seventh. Is there a prize?
That seems extremely unlikely. Her behaviour in court was so obviously provocative of the judge, and so blatantly ignored all rules if evidence, that it's pretty well impossible it wasn't deliberate. This was a performance in her clients behalf, likely on his instructions.
Here's her biography. Note she's also a senior adviser to his PAC.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alina_Habba
The sale follows Turkey’s decision to ratify Sweden’s NATO membership
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/27/us-approves-23bn-sale-of-f-16-war-planes-to-turkey
If so, I do hope she continues to behave like that. It obviously annoyed the jury.
However, it’s worth remembering that no actually competent lawyers are willing to work for Trump - first because he’s a bad payer, and secondly because he never follows their advice. So it is entirely possible she isn’t very good.
But then, trying to provoke the court is a silly strategy anyway, so either way…
This leads into another aspect of human nature: the tendency we all have not to want to admit to mistakes, especially when there is a harsh penalty for admitting those mistakes. Say you make a mistake, and might lose your job over it. Instead of admitting the mistake, you double down on it in the hope that no-one will notice the mistake, and/or that the effect of the mistake will somehow come right.
Even 'good' people can get into this mindset. So we need people to admit to mistakes; but we also need penalties for making mistakes to be more... understanding, especially as many mistakes are made in environments that allowed them to be made.
So what we had in the PO were people who must have known they were doing wrong, and were doing wrong deliberately. And the more they did wrong, the harsher the penalties (and in this case, the greater the rewards...) were.
If a few people had been more honest at the start of this, in the early 2000s, a massive amount of suffering might have been prevented.
Yet again, openness and clarity are key. "Yes, i fucked up," should not automatically be followed by: "You're fired!", and instead by "Let's fix it. Why did you fuck up?" It might still end up with an individual losing their job, but the organisation also learns.
In this case, the rewards were such that the organisation did wrong, knew it, and kept on doing wrong. Because admitting their mistakes was not in their interest, even when it hurt others.
(Sorry, a bit of a rambling, incoherent reply. But hopefully you get what I mean...)
Without the extra sick leave the German economy would have grown 0.5% instead of shrinking by 0.3%.
Source
https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/konjunktur/rekord-krankenstand-rezession-100.html
It'll be more plausible to argue "we've turned the corner economically, don't let Labour ruin it" in the Autumn as compared to early May.
The flip side is the summer is when small boats come and Reform will sense their opportunity to make an impact at Westminster.
I think Sunak is screwed either way.
So new system goes in, and immediately starts detecting massive fraud - Bingo! That’s exactly why they spent the money in the first place, trebles all round in the boardroom.
Ignore that everyone actually involved in the software said it was totally unfit for purpose and not ready to roll out - which is easy to do when it’s detecting all that fraud.
This is why I find the cries of “resign” for the slightest error by anyone in public life profoundly unhelpful.
We are all human. We all* make mistakes. There needs to be a penalty that is less than loss of job and career otherwise you end up with defensiveness and coverups, which doesn’t make for good governance
* for some value of all
This is not going to end well for England.
So often the post office scandal gives me a couple of tangent thoughts. Another one this morning; in how many post offices did problems occur after a manager had been sacked? In other words, if the postmaster at Little Snoring had been convicted of false accounting, due to Horizon , and sacked, did problems arise when his or her successor was in post? And if not, why not?
He has no good options at all.
People forget that when first contacted by Jo Hamilton, Arbuthnot did just the same as everyone else - forward the case to the Post Office, believe their reply, and respond to the constituent that the PO says everything is fine. It was only when one of his other Post Offices closed, because the previous SPMR had been sacked, and the new person started to have the same problems, that he realised something fishy was going on.
There were also cases where problems started or finished when kit was installed or repaired or an office reconfigured - which often happened when a PO was taken over (as in the Misra case, I think?). This could be further evidence that power and connectivity issues might be behind some of the more common faults.
Yes, a decent sunrise today. With 15 minutes extra daylight in the morning and 50 in the evening, so an extra hour of day compared to December’s minimum, winter is already slipping away; just don’t look at the long-range weather projections for mid-Feb…
Very much obliged! It underlines the stupidity of the post office management in sticking to their story!
The truth is, everyone in government is implicated one way or another - the politicians of all parties, the civil service, the CPS, the courts, the press all have awkward questions they don't want to have to answer about their mistakes, including sins of omission as much as sins of commission. So nobody will be pressing him to go.
Really, what the Horizon enquiry is doing is showing in pitiless detail just how broken and self-serving the management of this country is.
It's not a surprise to those who've had to work with it (my encounters with the DfE and OFSTED make the errors of the Post Office look positively reasonable) but it must be coming as a surprise and not a pleasant one to most people whose experience of government is the odd tax bill and grumbling about rubbish public services.
A Downing Street official said this week’s events had exposed the plotters as a disorganized rabble of disgruntled junior apparatchiks. But the arrangement gives the aides’ bosses deniability that they’re also involved.
While Sunak is safe for now, those plotting to get rid of him are preparing for a campaign of attrition between now and the summer, with by-elections and local elections key tests.
Looking at the odds on Betfair the value to me looks like September (currently 20) which prevents an uncomfortable conference, 2025 or later (currently 18) as going as late as possible is the norm for unpopular governments, and December (currently at 11).
I agree that November is also likely, but doesn't look value at odds on.
The idea that they get to the autumn happy and ready to go to the country is one of absolute denial. I read now that they plan an autumn statement to try and bribe their remaining voters with even more money - so forget October or November.
They will cling on until they are told to stop. 23rd January 2025. Or 12th December as the "these tax cuts in the AS will definitely swing it" alternative.
It was a very clear strategy, and could only be at the direction of her client.
But if guilty knowledge of what was going on in the POst Office could be pinned squarely on Cameron ...
England into Reluctant Turkish Conscript territory.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/economicinactivity/articles/risingillhealthandeconomicinactivitybecauseoflongtermsicknessuk/2019to2023
It would be interesting to see figures from other countries. While the UK figure may well be in part due to the increasingly dysfunctional NHS, the German data might well suggest a genuine problem of both recurrent waves of covid and of long covid. In particular the raised risk of cardiovascular disease in the 6 months after infection, which is reduced but not eliminated by vaccination.
Forget the fantasy contortions to get Nigel or Boris in place, they don't really solve the problem.
So the anti Rishi crew may continue to wound, but there aren't enough of them to kill. And the loyalists will hold on to nurse Sunak for fear of something far worse.
She asked for a recess for compassionate grounds and was surprised it wasn't granted merely because the witness concerned didn't have to attend that week anyway.
She admitted she didn't know how to enter documents in evidence.
She asked for a delay due to Covid and was photographed at a rally.
Her inability to follow courtroom procedure was of such a level that she was threatened with jail for contempt.
Her questioning of the witnesses was so inept even Trump's niece accused her of incompetence.
She was so rude to the jury that they inflated the damages to more than triple the demands of the plaintiff.
And finally, she wasn't meant to be the lawyer at all, but the original attorney pulled out about a week before the case started.
Now it's entirely possible this was all deliberate and part of a strategy.
But it's also very possible that she's just a bit useless.
But this might.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/27/david-camerons-activities-at-greensill-matter-of-interest-in-wider-inquiry-sfo-gfg
1) a successful defenestration of Sunak before the GE.
2) Starmer being removed by some unknown scandal or illness.
3) a Tory victory at the GE, then Sunak replaced by another PM.
Getting rid of Rishi Sunak won’t save the Tories, poll says
Voters tell survey they would not vote Conservative even if Kemi Badenoch or Boris Johnson took over
The Conservative Party’s electoral prospects would not improve if they replaced Rishi Sunak with another leader such as Kemi Badenoch, polling for The Times suggests.
Conservative rebels, including the former cabinet minister Sir Simon Clarke, have cited polling to claim that a different Conservative prime minister could revive the party’s fortunes.
However, a YouGov poll shows that even if the Tories were to install a third leader in two years, this would do nothing to improve their electoral fortunes.
Voters were asked whether they would be more likely to vote Conservative if Sunak was replaced by Badenoch, the business and trade secretary, who is seen by many MPs as the most likely candidate to win a leadership race.
The poll found that just 6 per cent of voters said they would be more likely to vote Conservative if Badenoch was leader, while 13 per cent said they would be less likely to vote Tory...
...The Times polling also found that replacing Sunak with someone like Boris Johnson, even if that was feasible, would not improve the Tories’ fortunes.
It found that a Johnson leadership would make 16 per cent of voters more likely to back the party while making 22 per cent less likely to vote Tory.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/getting-rid-of-rishi-sunak-wont-save-the-tories-poll-says-b9sptfxb6
The party is hopelessly divided and no candidate can secure enough support without internal enemies seeking to take them down.
Sunak is particularly rubbish and out of touch as a campaigner and persuader.
The first doesn't get changed by toppling Sunak, the second one might do.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Just_culture
Very successful in aviation accident investigation.
Its quite a safe attack by Labour too as can get little return fire.
Any decent lawyer would have told Trump to stop talking about Carroll and to be polite in court. Trump didn’t want to do that.
1) 10%
2) 0.1%
3) 0.0000001% ?
1) 25%
2) 1%
3) 1%
So the current price to lay Starmer as next PM of 1.23 on BFX seems about right.
That third one is way too high.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/27/hinkley-point-c-woes-threaten-break-uk-france-nuclear-fusion
when we could have had this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severn_Barrage
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cq5xzvdq4jvo
The value bet is surely laying a Con majority at the next GE?
And if you wanted could lay 3) at around 5% to further significantly boost the value on 1).
ITV drama on Teesside Freeport anyone?
Firing people who make mistakes actually doesn’t reduce the number of mistakes made, but instead means that people cover up mistakes, and the company/industry doesn’t have the opportunity to learn lessons or change processes. It also means that small incidents can end up leading to large accidents.
It’s not always human nature though, which is way many of these industries have external regulators to ensure that the right culture of incident reporting is maintained. It’s rare to see in private unregulated industries, although there are exceptions such as the Mercedes F1 team, where they have a total no-blame culture and debrief thoroughly after every race, analyzing every mistake that was made even if they won the race.
Otherwise, a flailing leader can often limp on, see Major in 1995.
That's like a war movie where the pilot says "one more mission, and I'm a free man".
If Sunak could be persuaded to step down at the GE, he can pre-announce his resignation as leader, but not PM. In the summer, we get a Tory leadership contest allowing all those wonderful candidates (eye roll) an opportunity to sell themselves as new brooms. Winner announced around conference, then we soon go into a GE campaign which they front. Sunak and the government are just caretakers at that point.
The advantage for Sunak in all this is he gets his full two years or so as PM for the CV but he doesn’t get blamed for the defeat.
The advantage (potentially) for the Tory Party is that technically they’ve not replaced PMs a third time in the parliament but they’re able to produce a different face to the electorate.
I’m not suggesting this will happen but if they do really want to change leader again that is probably the least damaging way for all involved.
I'm inclined to believe this theory of the case (which predates the verdict).
https://www.emptywheel.net/2024/01/18/donald-trump-has-chosen-to-pay-millions-to-trash-rule-of-law/
I recall seeing some similar trends in the UK as well. It would be very interesting if someone investigated whether this is an international phenomenon. It would help to explain the somewhat anaemic growth the west is suffering.
He obviously has better lawyers, the ones who stay quiet and focus on their work, they are just on the even more serious cases. Not ones who surely cannot even prep for court much because they're always on TV or following him about across the country.
If they start getting more media attention/traction this could be even more damaging for the Tories (possibly might take some Labour support as well, but they’re so far ahead at this juncture it won’t matter).
- They are chasing so need attention and publicity. The Trump Show takes away far too much attention from the Tories.
- The Tory divisions will be on display loud and clear with a third of the party Trumpian, a third horrified by him and another third trying to avoid commenting on him at all.
- Mobilise those on the left who are not enthused by Starmer but terrified of Trump and conflate him with Tories.
https://twitter.com/OxfordClarion/status/1745760429735825635
There clearly is a value in making an example, encourager the autres and all that. And there are professional crimes that are unforgivable.
But our collective attitude feels like something that holds us back... is there a way of tweaking the incentives to reward healthier responses to things going wrong?
I did a couple of weeks WFH last year, once with a bad cold and once with Covid.
How that culture can be applied to blue-collar work, especially for hourly paid of self-employed, is a different question.
One way or another
The second most catastrophic public health mistake in a century. After the original idea to do gain of function virology on dangerous bugs in dodgy labs in the centre of a massive Chinese city
So on that basis alone bring it on - because reality is I think Rishi is about as good as the Tory party have at the moment and the best chance they have of doing well because of the he gave out during Covid,
I think the point’s been adequately covered though.
I should have remembered Arbuthnot’s SPM’s.
First-class seats could be scrapped on Britain’s new High Speed 2 train line as officials look for ways to avoid a drop in passenger capacity on the troubled rail link after Rishi Sunak tore up much of the planned route.
The UK prime minister in October cut the northern leg of HS2 from Birmingham in the Midlands to Manchester to rein in spiralling costs on what has been the most expensive infrastructure scheme in Europe.
A new high-speed rail line will now only be built from London to Birmingham, with HS2’s custom-built trains shifting on to existing tracks the rest of the way to the north of England.
Sunak’s revised plans mean passenger capacity will drop because the HS2 trains are smaller than the existing stock of trains that currently use the West Coast Mainline from Birmingham to Manchester.
An internal government document seen by the Financial Times said capacity would drop from 1,690 to 1,530 seats per hour between London and Manchester, undermining the original aim of HS2, which was to hugely increase capacity on the railway system between the north and south...
...One idea under discussion is removing all first-class seats from the new trains, which would return the seat capacity on the line closer to previous levels, they said.
“They are serious about ripping out the first class, it’s another nail in the coffin of this being some kind of superior rail service but it’s probably less embarrassing than ending up with lower capacity,” said one senior rail industry figure.
https://www.ft.com/content/17dc0a18-f56b-4ecc-9676-0113c09d6811
You claim to have a high IQ. It'd be good if you actually showed signs of using it occasionally...
If May had approved Swansea (or more to the point, if her civil servants hadn't nobbled it) then you would now have half a dozen lagoons under construction, delivering power by 2030. Well before Hinkley C. And at at fraction of the cost.
The Severn barrage won't get built, because it isn't needed. Tidal lagoons will get built, because they are exactly the answer that various Ministers have been groping around for in the dark.