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A popular populist? Trump’s chances in the popular vote – politicalbetting.com
A popular populist? Trump’s chances in the popular vote – politicalbetting.com
American voters look highly likely to witness a rematch in November, for the first time in almost 70 years. But while the candidates may look familiar to last time, the polls look quite different. In fact, Donald Trump has the best polling for a Republican nominee at this stage for at least 20 years.
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One other obvious issue is how a candidate in jail will change the race, and another is the possibility of the Supreme Court kicking him off the ballot. Both far from certain, but who knows?
The banter heuristic says that Trump will win the popular vote but lose the electoral college, because the coup attempt is more salient in the states he tried to steal last time.
I've been wondering for a while if Biden's poor polling is partly dems who don't want him to run again. But they'll vote for him when it comes to it, especially if Trump is the alternative.
But, the Democrats out-performed in key marginals, whereas the Republicans outperformed in safely Red States, or safely Blue ones. Abetted by the Republicans’ habit of picking batshit candidates in marginals.
So, the Republicans only eked out a meagre win in the House, and fell short in Senate seats they should have won.
Dare I say it, but @Leon was right about immigration being the issue top of the table.
Abbott’s statement is, umm, aggressive in his assertion of his right to defend the border.
”The federal government has broken the compact between the United States and the States. The Executive Branch of the United States has a constitutional duty to enforce federal laws protecting States, including immigration laws on the books right now. President Biden has refused to enforce those laws and has even violated them. The result is that he has smashed records for illegal immigration.
“Despite having been put on notice in a series of letters—one of which I delivered to him by hand—President Biden has ignored Texas’s demand that he perform his constitutional duties.
“President Biden has violated his oath to faithfully execute immigration laws enacted by Congress. Instead of prosecuting immigrants for the federal crime of illegal entry, President Biden has sent his lawyers into federal courts to sue Texas for taking action to secure the border.
“President Biden has instructed his agencies to ignore federal statutes that mandate the detention of illegal immigrants. The effect is to illegally allow their en masse parole into the United States.
“By wasting taxpayer dollars to tear open Texas’s border security infrastructure, President Biden has enticed illegal immigrants away from the 28 legal entry points along this State’s southern border— bridges where nobody drowns—and into the dangerous waters of the Rio Grande.
“Under President Biden’s lawless border policies, more than 6 million illegal immigrants have crossed our southern border in just 3 years. That is more than the population of 33 different States in this country. This illegal refusal to protect the States has inflicted unprecedented harm on the People all across the United States. ”
https://thepostmillennial.com/just-in-greg-abbott-declares-invasion-over-border-crisis-invokes-right-to-self-defense
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/4427211-texas-democrat-biden-seize-control-texas-national-guard/
Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas) is calling on President Biden to take control of the Texas National Guard if the state defies a Supreme Court ruling that allows U.S. Border Patrol officers to take down the border barriers.
“Governor Greg Abbott is using the Texas National Guard to obstruct and create chaos at the border. If Abbott is defying yesterday’s Supreme Court ruling, @POTUS needs to establish sole federal control of the Texas National Guard now,”
Castro wrote in a Tuesday post on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has been engaged in a months-long feud with the Biden administration over the situation at the border. Abbott has maintained that Biden is not doing enough to address border security, while the Biden administration has said Texas does not have the authority to erect razor wire barriers.
…
The Supreme Court ruled 5-4 on Monday to allow U.S. Border Patrol agents to remove the razor wire on the border wall placed by Texas law enforcement. The ruling came as tensions between Texas and the federal government continued to rise in recent weeks.
Despite the ruling, Abbott has said that the Texas National Guard will continue to install the razor wire along the border in a post on X. Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) also urged Texas to ignore the Supreme Court ruling earlier this week.
“Texas’ razor wire is an effective deterrent against the illegal border crossings encouraged by Biden’s open border policies. We continue to deploy this razor wire to repel illegal immigration,” Abbott said.
Rep. Greg Casar (D-Texas) criticized Abbott for ordering more razor wire to be installed after the ruling.
“Greg Abbott’s latest stunt after yesterday’s Supreme Court order is malicious, unconstitutional, & against Texas values. Our country needs Congress to create a safer, humane, & more orderly immigration system — not razor wire to cut innocent people or laws that attack families,” he wrote on X.
The Texas National Guard and the Texas Department of Public Safety earlier this month installed fences and razor wire in a riverside park in Eagle Pass, Texas, which state law enforcement also prevented Border Patrol officers from accessing.
Good job they’re about to pick Trump, who is sane, intelligent and has never attempted a coup.
Oh.
Could Abbott end up in prison himself? That would be quite funny.
Although Dan Patrick is just as off the wall.
Now, I’m not yet saying C***l W*r, but one set of armed officers fighting another set of armed officers for control of a border, is not an unusual way of these things starting.
Also, by means of some background, Biden’s trying to get legislation passed to give citizenship to the illegals.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/feb/18/new-us-laws-to-give-undocumented-migrants-a-pathway-to-citizenship
The background becomes irrelevant.
This is, incidentally, nothing to do with states’ rights. This is Abbott trying to play politics in an election year. I just wonder if he has thought through the consequences for himself.
Abbott is wildly popular in Texas, and he’d be re-elected from jail with a landslide.
Edit - and again, this isn't about the Feds. It's about the Supreme Court. Just at the moment when they're going to rule on Trump's eligibility, are they going to want some twat of a Republican Governor saying 'ignore them if you don't like what they say?' I don't think even Alito's going to be pleased about that, although I say nothing about Thomas.
They aren't Abbott's private militia.
With the argument Abbott is using Biden can tell SCOTUS to go fuck themselves.
Putin's catamites in the GOP really don't do long term thinking.
I have missed Bazball.
Abbott's being stupid. And it's not going to end well for him.
The middle class must accept they can’t afford Range Rovers – they’re only for rich people
As the financial landscape changes, ‘Chelsea tractors’ are increasingly out of reach
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/range-rover-insurance-middle-class-not-afford/?li_source=LI&li_medium=for_you
India = Labour
Oh…
I'm looking forward to @kinabalu 's response to that header.
Perhaps a poor translation of the original text?
Much like the appropriateness of sex with rhinos giving you the horn.
"Indeed, those who deny Our verses and are arrogant toward them – the gates of Heaven will not be opened for them, nor will they enter Paradise until a camel enters into the eye of a needle. And thus do We recompense the criminals."
But for Northern Ireland, Rishi?
Rishi Sunak offers to sacrifice Brexit freedoms to re-establish government in Northern Ireland
Prime Minister hopes move to prevent extra trade barriers in the Irish Sea will persuade DUP to end its boycott of Stormont
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/24/rishi-sunak-sacrifice-brexit-freedoms-northern-ireland/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/24/sturgeon-fury-cancel-christmas-parties-advice-covid-inquiry/
If GPT5 is "a lot better" than this, and if they can sonewhat un-nerf it, then we are on the cusp of a proper AI friend
They’re such a status symbol, because you need to buy two of them to be sure one is serviceable at any given time.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2024/jan/24/hunter-gatherers-were-mostly-gatherers-says-archaeologist
It was all about cost, cost, cost, get parts as cheap as possible. If that meant changing designs to accomodate so be it. The KPI was price reductions. As long as they hit that great.
One site, from 6500 years ago, with 24 skeletons in a fairly unique location - up in the Andes - does not prove "Early human hunter-gatherers ate mostly plants and vegetables"
How can a self respecting science journalist write this drivel? Is it Woke nonsense, or is she just stupid?
There could be any number of reasons why this one unusual site produces 24 skeletons of people who liked carrots. I mean, they are half way up a fucking mountain, maybe there wasn't that much meat. So they ate leaves
Have they considered that?
Absolutely laughable
"The analysis also indicated that large mammals, such as deer or llamas, made up most of the meat in the diet, rather than smaller mammals such as birds or fish."
Who could have guessed that primitive pre-farming people living ten thousand fucking feet up a bloody mountain, "didn't eat a lot of fish"
And good morning one and all
It had just been leaked to the press that Johnson and Sen. Lankford reached an agreement on the border deal. About 36 hours later Johnson does this interview. Pay attention to how both of them mentioned getting frantic calls from Trump demanding Johnson tank the deal.
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1750303515216384160
Or at least you would, were you here.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2024/jan/23/british-museum-reveals-bumper-haul-of-treasures-found-by-the-public
*Scottish and Irish stuff goes elsewhere under ancient laws, long preceding devolution or even the Tory Party. Not sure about Wales, but I assume the same.
The place costs £25 a night. Insane
Unemployment in the US is at a 50 year low. Biden’s administration has created 14m jobs including 1m manufacturing jobs as he promised. Real wages, which have been flat, are now rising strongly. For the first time in decades US growth is matching or even exceeding China.
It is a terrific record and his low polling numbers are a reflection of the bias in the right wing media calling everything awful. As the population focuses on this I expect Biden’s numbers to improve sharply and some of the Trump court cases to damage his.
Not only do I see this as a poor bet, if I am right trading opportunities are likely to be poor because the Republican vote is not likely to be as good as it is now again.
And they merely say 'it suggests', not 'proves'.
As they point out, firm evidence for the actual balance of human diet going back that far is scant.
One thing it does show pretty conclusively is the power of the headline over the rest of the text.
https://www.theguardian.com/food/2024/jan/24/perfect-cup-of-tea-needs-a-pinch-of-salt-and-squeeze-of-lemon-says-us-chemist
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/24/tory-party-surrender-paving-way-british-trump/
You're experiencing some strange visions.
"Early human hunter-gatherers ate mostly plants and vegetables, according to archeological findings that undermine the commonly held view that our ancestors lived on a high protein, meat-heavy diet."
It is categorical. It's also comical
I completely missed that, it is so egregious. Jesus, sack that journalist
I’m not sure how long people have lived in the Arctic, but if you found graves from 10,000 years ago, you might well find that they were meat eaters!
Fortunately Civilisation is not usually found in the hands of the reactionaries
Still less in the hands of middle aged hacks on their fifth Martini in a South East Asian bar.
The British Museum has been transformed over the last thirty years and now draws in over 6 million visits a year. I have little doubt that it will continue to change to reflect new knowledge and new ideas.
That is a good thing.
RefUK is too diffuse to do that- maybe a handful from Kent to Lincolnshire?
If RefUK and ConUK both end up in high teens/low twenties, they both get destroyed in terms of Westminster seats.
"smaller mammals such as birds or fish..."
Pretty sure that wasn't the archeologist. I'm embarrassed to say I missed it too when I skimmed the piece.
I'll tackle some of your broader points first though. If the US is matching China's growth rate, it is because China is having a mare of a 2023 and looks like 2024, and its rate is falling, not that the US has turbocharged growth. The jobs Biden 'created' are really a bounceback from the pandemic and of the measures both Administrations took. As for the 'right-wing' media, could you list out the publications please? I get Fox, the NY Post and the WSJ and Mail Online. Against that, you have the NYT, WP, LAT, Chicago Tribune etc, plus most of the other major networks who have, to put it charitably, a centre-left bias. The mass of the media is not right-wing.
But never mind that. Here is what could make the bet interesting. Quincel raises the very good point re 2022 pointing to the polls being wrong. That could play against the bet.
But one thing increasingly clear is that the Democrats have become the beneficiaries of lower turnout in the mid-terms rather than the Republicans - which historically has been the case - as graduates and suburbanites become more of their base. Yet even in that election, on the House popular vote, the Republicans won by 2-3 points. True, some seats were uncontested but, in 2024 with more low-propensity voters, you would expect the Republicans to benefit.
There is also the fact that there are anecdotal signs Republicans are also gaining in heavily Democrat areas. Hochul only defeated Zeldin by 5+ points in the NY Governorship race and Murphy only won the NJ vote by 2. No-one imagines the situation has got better for the Democrats in those states. CA will never go Republican but, for the purposes of this bet, the Republicans only have to make modest voting inroads, which it looks like they are.
So, actually, Quincel has identified an opportunity.
Despite possessing the vastly greater resources of government to plan, and being the actual government, it has published no departmental spending plans beyond the current year.
Labour and Tories need to be honest about economic trade-offs, says IFS
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/jan/25/labour-and-tories-need-to-be-honest-about-economic-trade-offs-says-ifs
Tomorrow I'm off to Bangkok for the weekend to hang out with friends, so it's all good at the moment
As for the spartan quality, that is exactly what I want. I'm a veteran at this flint-knapping game, and I've learned that my ideal working environment is a simple clean room, with no major distractions inside, but a balcony with a nice view when I want time out. Also I need the room cleaned and my laundry done and food devliered so I can absolutely focus on the work
It is not a holiday. I think of it as an extraordinarily pleasant open prison sentence, with a job to be done during my time inside
If you have kids, they've probably had one or more toys made by the Japanese company Tomy.
Well, here's a picture taken from Tomy's lunar rover:
https://twitter.com/tobyliiiiiiiiii/status/1750397416854196734
This is so awesome.
So in that respect, it's quite correct to say that it's updated current understanding.
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0296420
..Current understanding of the earliest subsistence economies of the Andean highlands suggest that meat was the major subsistence resource. Early Holocene assemblages, 11–5 cal. ka, consistently reveal abundant camelid and deer remains, projectile points, and scrapers suggesting hunting-oriented economies [3–11]. For example, Rick [4] concluded that, “The settlement pattern [of the Junín region] and the faunal collections [from the site of Pachamachay] strongly support the hypothesis that vicuña, or similar camelids, were the major food source for puna [ecosystem] hunter-gatherers.” Such observations are furthermore consistent with diet breadth models, which suggest that early hunter-gatherer populations would tend to target high-ranked large mammals before resorting to plant foods..
The non-leather vegan interior is very well executed though, I'll give them that.
That hings his head, an' a' that;
The coward slave - we pass him by,
We dare be poor for a' that!
For a' that, an' a' that.
Our toils obscure an' a' that,
The rank is but the guinea's stamp,
The Man's the gowd for a' that.
What though on hamely fare we dine,
Wear hodden grey, an' a that;
Gie fools their silks, and knaves their wine;
A Man's a Man for a' that:
For a' that, and a' that,
Their tinsel show, an' a' that;
The honest man, tho' e'er sae poor,
Is king o' men for a' that.
Ye see yon birkie, ca'd a lord,
Wha struts, an' stares, an' a' that;
Tho' hundreds worship at his word,
He's but a coof for a' that:
For a' that, an' a' that,
His ribband, star, an' a' that:
The man o' independent mind
He looks an' laughs at a' that.
A prince can mak a belted knight,
A marquis, duke, an' a' that;
But an honest man's abon his might,
Gude faith, he maunna fa' that!
For a' that, an' a' that,
Their dignities an' a' that;
The pith o' sense, an' pride o' worth,
Are higher rank than a' that.
Then let us pray that come it may,
(As come it will for a' that,)
That Sense and Worth, o'er a' the earth,
Shall bear the gree, an' a' that.
For a' that, an' a' that,
It's coming yet for a' that,
That Man to Man, the world o'er,
Shall brothers be for a' that.
Happy Burns Night everyone.
eg One of the now-extinct Inuit communities in Greenland formed the Dorset Culture
The art of the Dorset culture is notoriously crazy and sinister, even by Inuit standards. Anthropologists and archeaologists who dug it up, in the last century, used to have nightmares about it, and some became traumatised
Why was it so freaky? One theory is that the Dorset Inuit were a very late arrival in north America, and, basically, they found that the only place left, uninhabited, was Greenland. After a few generations they realised they were in a kind of beautiful hellscape, a place so difficult and dangerous it is not worth the effort to exist, so they spent 50 years making art to expres their existential horror, then they all died out deliberately, commiting a kind of national suicide
Here is a Dorset skull I photographed near Ilullisat
Though I can’t recall them being that peckish when it came to BJ and his crew.
SO much depends on whether or not he can get himself onto the main debates in September and October. If he does get to share the floor with the two established parties, he could take votes from both of them and potentially make a lot of safe states less so.
If anyone needs a holiday where they will feel like they are on another planet, in a different universe, go to Greenland. Go, specifically, to Ilulissat and Disko Bay
Flights are pricey but once you are there it is not so expensive, and it is sublime, in the true sense. Spectacular with an element of danger
Return it, merci
“Dorset culture is notoriously crazy and sinister”
Perhaps @Benpointer would care to comment?
My God. What a place. It is glorious but essentially uninhabitable. No one should live there, but they try
It has the highest suicide rate on earth. It has a high rate of CHILD suicide
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_in_Greenland
Think Glasgow or Stornoway on a Sunday in January, but with less of that sunny Scotch optimism, and the constant sense that everything inthe world is trying to kill you, in different ways,
All long gone as far as one can tell.