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YouGov/Telegraph mega poll with forecasts for each seat predicts CON disaster – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,010
edited January 22 in General
imageYouGov/Telegraph mega poll with forecasts for each seat predicts CON disaster – politicalbetting.com

The big political news this morning is a 14k sample megapoll by YouGov for today’s Telegraph with detailed predictions for each of the seats. The outcome is terrible fo Sunak and his party.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,917
    Labour are gonna win. Starmer will be PM. The poll is not an earthquake mega-prediction shock, we all now expect this

    it is good, however, to see the yellow hordes being rolled back in beautiful Scotland
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,904
    The MRP for Bassetlaw, Reform vote > Lab's lead over Con looks very plausible to me. Reform are going to cost the Conservatives a whole bunch of strongish leave seats I think. Not that the Conservatives have any 'natural' right to the seats, but they'll be getting pincered by tactical lib/lab voting in Remainia too.

    Tbh the way things are going the 2024 map might be a touch optimistic for the Tories.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,868
    @matt_dathan

    Excl: The Home Office submitted plans to buy its own plane to deport migrants to Rwanda in 2022.

    Rishi Sunak, as chancellor, blocked it on cost grounds:
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,917
    If anything, the poll underplays the problem for the Tories. YouGov says the model allows for tactical voting and maybe it does - but clearly not in all constituencies. My one - Honiton and Sidmouth - it has as a reasonably comfortable Tory win based on a split Labour and LibDem vote. That just isn’t going to happen. Ask the Labour CLP!!!
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,411
    Liz Truss was never given a fair crack of the whip.
    Perhaps they should bring her back ?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,917
    FPT for @Sandpit

    “I’ve liked Burnham ever since his appearance at Anfield on the anniversary of the Hillsborough tragedy.

    As the Sports Minister, he was booed by the crowd, but turned them around and promised them that they would see justice - then followed through and ensured that it happened.”

    ++++


    Yes.

    The other day I was moaning that there are almost no British politicians that I even slightly admire, or respect, or anything - but actually Burnham is one. He seems honest, direct, intelligent and he has a tiny trace of dynamism where you think Well maybe he will actually do something, rather than just whine or evade or waffle

    Also Manchester (to this outsider) seems to have done quite well these last years, under his mayoralty

    Compare and contrast with the soul sapping void of inertia that is Sir Keir Starmer. I can’t see Starmer doing ANYTHING. Tho, I suppose, that does give him plenty of room to surprise on the upside
  • Options
    A shortened version of my post on the previous thread:
    Sunak will do a giveaway budget but won't call the election
    Tory councillors will get reamed, leading to a push for a leadership contest
    Unsure whether or not it happens, or if Sunak survives or not
    Whatever, the polls only continue to get worse for the Tories
    We roll through conference season and yet another will he announce date goes past
    Faced with an election just before or just after Christmas, Sunak rolls the dice with January. And offers the Nigel whatever he wants to go away. Nigel refuses.

    Who will be the first Tory to defect to RefUK? Keep an eye on Lee Anderson...
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,938
    Nigelb said:

    Liz Truss was never given a fair crack of the whip.
    Perhaps they should bring her back ?

    What was that @Leon was posting about her necklace?

  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,500
    This poll to some extent falls into the mega poll myth. All it is really saying is that a larger sample over a wider area broadly confirms the smaller samples usually used. No sample however large can tell us either about how things will change or about future events, or will tell us whether its methodology of how it uses the raw data is robust or not.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,524

    If anything, the poll underplays the problem for the Tories. YouGov says the model allows for tactical voting and maybe it does - but clearly not in all constituencies. My one - Honiton and Sidmouth - it has as a reasonably comfortable Tory win based on a split Labour and LibDem vote. That just isn’t going to happen. Ask the Labour CLP!!!

    It does show a much higher Lib Dem seat count than anything based on national polls is suggesting, so either that’s a feature of efficiency (which MRP should pick up) or tactical voting (which MRPs haven’t generally been programmed to do.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,254
    fpt and what amazing thing Boris did - he got Brexit done. It was a fantastic campaign which delivered on its main promise of taking the UK out of the EU, something that to date had been in stalemate.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,882
    Scott_xP said:

    @matt_dathan

    Excl: The Home Office submitted plans to buy its own plane to deport migrants to Rwanda in 2022.

    Rishi Sunak, as chancellor, blocked it on cost grounds:

    If the Tories are going to lurch even more to the right on the back of this poll, they could go full Argentine Junta and buy all the 737 Max 9s for a good price.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,938
    Grant Shapps on BBC just now with a Boris style hairdo!

    Does that indicate something?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,917

    Grant Shapps on BBC just now with a Boris style hairdo!

    Does that indicate something?

    Doesn’t he a famously have a toupee?

    @Dura_Ace often and amusingly comments on it
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,882
    edited January 15
    TimS said:

    If anything, the poll underplays the problem for the Tories. YouGov says the model allows for tactical voting and maybe it does - but clearly not in all constituencies. My one - Honiton and Sidmouth - it has as a reasonably comfortable Tory win based on a split Labour and LibDem vote. That just isn’t going to happen. Ask the Labour CLP!!!

    It does show a much higher Lib Dem seat count than anything based on national polls is suggesting, so either that’s a feature of efficiency (which MRP should pick up) or tactical voting (which MRPs haven’t generally been programmed to do.
    This MRP does not take into account tactical voting. Makes it worse for the Tories in E&W, but introduces some uncertainty in the Scotland forecast.
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 3,679
    Further evidence in the column for "look at the evidence of your eyes not the stories of historical precedent" for Labour smashing this election. I do wonder if Labour is seen as a shoe in if squeeze messaging will be less effective and in a few seats the Greens / Plaid / even LDs manage to win despite Labour doing well nationally (just because people feel they can vote their heart knowing Labour will be in government either way).
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,917
    Talking of journalists stealing PB debates, I see the villainous @SeanT has borrowed our convo about litter and turned it into some kind of spurious elegy for All of Western Civilisation

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/sicily-and-the-slow-collapse-of-civilisation/
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,855
    Leon said:

    FPT for @Sandpit

    “I’ve liked Burnham ever since his appearance at Anfield on the anniversary of the Hillsborough tragedy.

    As the Sports Minister, he was booed by the crowd, but turned them around and promised them that they would see justice - then followed through and ensured that it happened.”

    ++++


    Yes.

    The other day I was moaning that there are almost no British politicians that I even slightly admire, or respect, or anything - but actually Burnham is one. He seems honest, direct, intelligent and he has a tiny trace of dynamism where you think Well maybe he will actually do something, rather than just whine or evade or waffle

    Also Manchester (to this outsider) seems to have done quite well these last years, under his mayoralty

    Compare and contrast with the soul sapping void of inertia that is Sir Keir Starmer. I can’t see Starmer doing ANYTHING. Tho, I suppose, that does give him plenty of room to surprise on the upside

    Oh, absolutely. Friends in Manchester say he’s done well for the city.

    Just compare him to the mayor of London.
  • Options

    Grant Shapps on BBC just now with a Boris style hairdo!

    Does that indicate something?

    Scissor shortages have reached unprecedented levels due to Brexit and problems at the Suez Canal?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,917
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for @Sandpit

    “I’ve liked Burnham ever since his appearance at Anfield on the anniversary of the Hillsborough tragedy.

    As the Sports Minister, he was booed by the crowd, but turned them around and promised them that they would see justice - then followed through and ensured that it happened.”

    ++++


    Yes.

    The other day I was moaning that there are almost no British politicians that I even slightly admire, or respect, or anything - but actually Burnham is one. He seems honest, direct, intelligent and he has a tiny trace of dynamism where you think Well maybe he will actually do something, rather than just whine or evade or waffle

    Also Manchester (to this outsider) seems to have done quite well these last years, under his mayoralty

    Compare and contrast with the soul sapping void of inertia that is Sir Keir Starmer. I can’t see Starmer doing ANYTHING. Tho, I suppose, that does give him plenty of room to surprise on the upside

    Oh, absolutely. Friends in Manchester say he’s done well for the city.

    Just compare him to the mayor of London.
    Oh God. Don’t

    Khan

    I loathe him with a passion that is bad for my blood pressure
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,855
    Nigelb said:

    Liz Truss was never given a fair crack of the whip.
    Perhaps they should bring her back ?

    There’s a small group of us on here who think that Sunak isn’t doing any better, and at least there would be clear ideological water between the two candidates at the election with Truss still in place against Starmer.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,855
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for @Sandpit

    “I’ve liked Burnham ever since his appearance at Anfield on the anniversary of the Hillsborough tragedy.

    As the Sports Minister, he was booed by the crowd, but turned them around and promised them that they would see justice - then followed through and ensured that it happened.”

    ++++


    Yes.

    The other day I was moaning that there are almost no British politicians that I even slightly admire, or respect, or anything - but actually Burnham is one. He seems honest, direct, intelligent and he has a tiny trace of dynamism where you think Well maybe he will actually do something, rather than just whine or evade or waffle

    Also Manchester (to this outsider) seems to have done quite well these last years, under his mayoralty

    Compare and contrast with the soul sapping void of inertia that is Sir Keir Starmer. I can’t see Starmer doing ANYTHING. Tho, I suppose, that does give him plenty of room to surprise on the upside

    Oh, absolutely. Friends in Manchester say he’s done well for the city.

    Just compare him to the mayor of London.
    Oh God. Don’t

    Khan

    I loathe him with a passion that is bad for my blood pressure
    Exactly!
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for @Sandpit

    “I’ve liked Burnham ever since his appearance at Anfield on the anniversary of the Hillsborough tragedy.

    As the Sports Minister, he was booed by the crowd, but turned them around and promised them that they would see justice - then followed through and ensured that it happened.”

    ++++


    Yes.

    The other day I was moaning that there are almost no British politicians that I even slightly admire, or respect, or anything - but actually Burnham is one. He seems honest, direct, intelligent and he has a tiny trace of dynamism where you think Well maybe he will actually do something, rather than just whine or evade or waffle

    Also Manchester (to this outsider) seems to have done quite well these last years, under his mayoralty

    Compare and contrast with the soul sapping void of inertia that is Sir Keir Starmer. I can’t see Starmer doing ANYTHING. Tho, I suppose, that does give him plenty of room to surprise on the upside

    Oh, absolutely. Friends in Manchester say he’s done well for the city.

    Just compare him to the mayor of London.
    Oh God. Don’t

    Khan

    I loathe him with a passion that is bad for my blood pressure
    How have the Tories managed to select someone as deranged as they have? If Khan is as bad as suggested, a sane candidate could defeat him. Right?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,917
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for @Sandpit

    “I’ve liked Burnham ever since his appearance at Anfield on the anniversary of the Hillsborough tragedy.

    As the Sports Minister, he was booed by the crowd, but turned them around and promised them that they would see justice - then followed through and ensured that it happened.”

    ++++


    Yes.

    The other day I was moaning that there are almost no British politicians that I even slightly admire, or respect, or anything - but actually Burnham is one. He seems honest, direct, intelligent and he has a tiny trace of dynamism where you think Well maybe he will actually do something, rather than just whine or evade or waffle

    Also Manchester (to this outsider) seems to have done quite well these last years, under his mayoralty

    Compare and contrast with the soul sapping void of inertia that is Sir Keir Starmer. I can’t see Starmer doing ANYTHING. Tho, I suppose, that does give him plenty of room to surprise on the upside

    Oh, absolutely. Friends in Manchester say he’s done well for the city.

    Just compare him to the mayor of London.
    Oh God. Don’t

    Khan

    I loathe him with a passion that is bad for my blood pressure
    Exactly!
    i don’t think Khan even LIKES London, or particularly cares about it. He’s just some grey managerialist puritan careerist technocrat doing a well paid job, with a faint disapproval of human pleasure, which he only allows under sufferance

    Burnham ALWAYS sounds like he loves Manchester, and Mancunians, and he always comes across like he is genuinely proud of the city

    And yet the beigeness that is Khan will win again. Gawd ‘elp us
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 3,679
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for @Sandpit

    “I’ve liked Burnham ever since his appearance at Anfield on the anniversary of the Hillsborough tragedy.

    As the Sports Minister, he was booed by the crowd, but turned them around and promised them that they would see justice - then followed through and ensured that it happened.”

    ++++


    Yes.

    The other day I was moaning that there are almost no British politicians that I even slightly admire, or respect, or anything - but actually Burnham is one. He seems honest, direct, intelligent and he has a tiny trace of dynamism where you think Well maybe he will actually do something, rather than just whine or evade or waffle

    Also Manchester (to this outsider) seems to have done quite well these last years, under his mayoralty

    Compare and contrast with the soul sapping void of inertia that is Sir Keir Starmer. I can’t see Starmer doing ANYTHING. Tho, I suppose, that does give him plenty of room to surprise on the upside

    Oh, absolutely. Friends in Manchester say he’s done well for the city.

    Just compare him to the mayor of London.
    Most of my friends in London barely think about Khan - and when they do it's kind of ambivalent. I think for many Londoners they don't feel the impact of the mayor / GLA (probably because Westminster is so clearly there).
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,254
    I missed all the chat about date of next general election and heard Rishi about when the next likely date is.

    THAT SAID.

    With the Cons looking like they are going to get a shellacking to end all shellackings, why on earth wouldn't they wait until the last possible moment and go for 2025. At the margin things may get worse but as far as the current govt is concerned who cares. Losing a few more seats is neither here nor there if you are facing a huge defeat. Meanwhile Rishi is PM and is trying to build his legacy where duration is a key factor.

    Rishi (1yr, 82 days) is currently nestled under the Duke of Grafton in 48th place. He can bump that up 10 places by waiting for another 375 days or so.

    2025 next GE is currently 26s (bf) and I have had a modest stake to this end.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,904

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for @Sandpit

    “I’ve liked Burnham ever since his appearance at Anfield on the anniversary of the Hillsborough tragedy.

    As the Sports Minister, he was booed by the crowd, but turned them around and promised them that they would see justice - then followed through and ensured that it happened.”

    ++++


    Yes.

    The other day I was moaning that there are almost no British politicians that I even slightly admire, or respect, or anything - but actually Burnham is one. He seems honest, direct, intelligent and he has a tiny trace of dynamism where you think Well maybe he will actually do something, rather than just whine or evade or waffle

    Also Manchester (to this outsider) seems to have done quite well these last years, under his mayoralty

    Compare and contrast with the soul sapping void of inertia that is Sir Keir Starmer. I can’t see Starmer doing ANYTHING. Tho, I suppose, that does give him plenty of room to surprise on the upside

    Oh, absolutely. Friends in Manchester say he’s done well for the city.

    Just compare him to the mayor of London.
    Oh God. Don’t

    Khan

    I loathe him with a passion that is bad for my blood pressure
    How have the Tories managed to select someone as deranged as they have? If Khan is as bad as suggested, a sane candidate could defeat him. Right?
    Not with the Tories current unpopularity. A good candidate may well win for the Conservatives when Starmer starts to become unpopular in Gov't.
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,231
    Leon said:

    FPT for @Sandpit

    “I’ve liked Burnham ever since his appearance at Anfield on the anniversary of the Hillsborough tragedy.

    As the Sports Minister, he was booed by the crowd, but turned them around and promised them that they would see justice - then followed through and ensured that it happened.”

    ++++


    Yes.

    The other day I was moaning that there are almost no British politicians that I even slightly admire, or respect, or anything - but actually Burnham is one. He seems honest, direct, intelligent and he has a tiny trace of dynamism where you think Well maybe he will actually do something, rather than just whine or evade or waffle

    Also Manchester (to this outsider) seems to have done quite well these last years, under his mayoralty

    Compare and contrast with the soul sapping void of inertia that is Sir Keir Starmer. I can’t see Starmer doing ANYTHING. Tho, I suppose, that does give him plenty of room to surprise on the upside

    Leonadamus says Starmer will 'surprise on the upside'. Shit, we're doomed.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,255
    Leon said:

    Talking of journalists stealing PB debates, I see the villainous @SeanT has borrowed our convo about litter and turned it into some kind of spurious elegy for All of Western Civilisation

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/sicily-and-the-slow-collapse-of-civilisation/

    Here is a 1966 report on Blackpool. Note the litter by the reporter's deckchair.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrMIXufbc4c&t=82s
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,664
    TOPPING said:

    I missed all the chat about date of next general election and heard Rishi about when the next likely date is.

    THAT SAID.

    With the Cons looking like they are going to get a shellacking to end all shellackings, why on earth wouldn't they wait until the last possible moment and go for 2025. At the margin things may get worse but as far as the current govt is concerned who cares. Losing a few more seats is neither here nor there if you are facing a huge defeat. Meanwhile Rishi is PM and is trying to build his legacy where duration is a key factor.

    Rishi (1yr, 82 days) is currently nestled under the Duke of Grafton in 48th place. He can bump that up 10 places by waiting for another 375 days or so.

    2025 next GE is currently 26s (bf) and I have had a modest stake to this end.

    Tory 2019 voters are dying at a 4:1 ratio vs Labour voters. Thats about another 200k vote swing to Labour for waiting a full year.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,917

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for @Sandpit

    “I’ve liked Burnham ever since his appearance at Anfield on the anniversary of the Hillsborough tragedy.

    As the Sports Minister, he was booed by the crowd, but turned them around and promised them that they would see justice - then followed through and ensured that it happened.”

    ++++


    Yes.

    The other day I was moaning that there are almost no British politicians that I even slightly admire, or respect, or anything - but actually Burnham is one. He seems honest, direct, intelligent and he has a tiny trace of dynamism where you think Well maybe he will actually do something, rather than just whine or evade or waffle

    Also Manchester (to this outsider) seems to have done quite well these last years, under his mayoralty

    Compare and contrast with the soul sapping void of inertia that is Sir Keir Starmer. I can’t see Starmer doing ANYTHING. Tho, I suppose, that does give him plenty of room to surprise on the upside

    Oh, absolutely. Friends in Manchester say he’s done well for the city.

    Just compare him to the mayor of London.
    Oh God. Don’t

    Khan

    I loathe him with a passion that is bad for my blood pressure
    How have the Tories managed to select someone as deranged as they have? If Khan is as bad as suggested, a sane candidate could defeat him. Right?
    There have been conflicting polls. One showed that the Tories were well within striking distance - and with a good candidate could beat Khan (as they nearly beat him last time with a mediocre candidate); but other polls show Khan is miles ahead, presumably because the Tory brand is so poisonous - and even the best candidate would have no chance

    Whatever the case I have not ever met anyone enthused by Khan. Ambivelence or MEH is about as positive as it gets, lots of people seriously abhor him

    Also, three terms? Really?? Fuck off. There should be two term limits for the mayoralty. Enough already
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,097
    edited January 15
    Leon said:

    Talking of journalists stealing PB debates, I see the villainous @SeanT has borrowed our convo about litter and turned it into some kind of spurious elegy for All of Western Civilisation

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/sicily-and-the-slow-collapse-of-civilisation/

    I wonder when Mr Thomas last visited Sicily. I am a regular traveller to Sicily and I do not recognise the picture painted. It is true Palermo still remains poor, unkemp (one could twin it with Wednesbury) and dominated by the Mafia,but the area around Ragusa, of which your friend writes, post Moltalbano is buzzing. But even Palermo has come along way in the thirty years since Falcone was assassinated, and one cannot move for the new holiday homes of the wealthy along the coast from Palermo to Cefalu.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,411
    Leon said:

    Talking of journalists stealing PB debates, I see the villainous @SeanT has borrowed our convo about litter and turned it into some kind of spurious elegy for All of Western Civilisation

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/sicily-and-the-slow-collapse-of-civilisation/

    You'd think if he was going to nick stuff from you on PB he'd at least choose something interesting.

  • Options
    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,136

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for @Sandpit

    “I’ve liked Burnham ever since his appearance at Anfield on the anniversary of the Hillsborough tragedy.

    As the Sports Minister, he was booed by the crowd, but turned them around and promised them that they would see justice - then followed through and ensured that it happened.”

    ++++


    Yes.

    The other day I was moaning that there are almost no British politicians that I even slightly admire, or respect, or anything - but actually Burnham is one. He seems honest, direct, intelligent and he has a tiny trace of dynamism where you think Well maybe he will actually do something, rather than just whine or evade or waffle

    Also Manchester (to this outsider) seems to have done quite well these last years, under his mayoralty

    Compare and contrast with the soul sapping void of inertia that is Sir Keir Starmer. I can’t see Starmer doing ANYTHING. Tho, I suppose, that does give him plenty of room to surprise on the upside

    Oh, absolutely. Friends in Manchester say he’s done well for the city.

    Just compare him to the mayor of London.
    Oh God. Don’t

    Khan

    I loathe him with a passion that is bad for my blood pressure
    How have the Tories managed to select someone as deranged as they have? If Khan is as bad as suggested, a sane candidate could defeat him. Right?
    This is the long-term damage that a poor quality centre right party does to the body politic.

    The Tories *need* an extinction-level event so we/they can build a centre-right Party (probably still called the Conservative Party) from the various factions that have been eliminated and disaffected in the last decade. Something to attract young people who are not satisfied with centre-left arguments as to how to address their concerns of generational poverty, climate change, conflict etc.
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,599
    TimS said:

    If anything, the poll underplays the problem for the Tories. YouGov says the model allows for tactical voting and maybe it does - but clearly not in all constituencies. My one - Honiton and Sidmouth - it has as a reasonably comfortable Tory win based on a split Labour and LibDem vote. That just isn’t going to happen. Ask the Labour CLP!!!

    It does show a much higher Lib Dem seat count than anything based on national polls is suggesting, so either that’s a feature of efficiency (which MRP should pick up) or tactical voting (which MRPs haven’t generally been programmed to do.
    What the details in the Telegraph seem very coy about are the national vote shares which underpin the result. I haven't been able to track them down directly. But there is reference on the front page to the Lab share being up 4% and the Con share down 18% and also there being no further surge in the Reform vote factored in. So that would imply Lab 37%, Con 27% and Reform maybe 10%. So the question then arises, where is the remaining 26% of the vote going? With the Lib Dems being given 48 seats even without any tactical voting, it's hard to resist the conclusion that study has somehow contrived to leave the national Lib Dem vote share in the mid teens.

    What the MRP isn't backed by is an opinion poll in the normal sense of the word, because the polling itself is then changed by making enormous assumptions about allocating back undecided voters based on demographic characteristics. Based on the little we know about the method, it's reasonable to suspect that those assumptions must be behind the vote shares which appear to be so out of line with national polling results including those from YouGov. So I think there are question marks about the methodology, and maybe the lack of transparency is because Lord Frost didn't want the political headlines he wants to generate to be undermined by questions over the legitimacy of the projections.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,917
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Talking of journalists stealing PB debates, I see the villainous @SeanT has borrowed our convo about litter and turned it into some kind of spurious elegy for All of Western Civilisation

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/sicily-and-the-slow-collapse-of-civilisation/

    You'd think if he was going to nick stuff from you on PB he'd at least choose something interesting.

    i guess, once again, he will have to console himself that it is the Most Read Article on Spectator, this morning
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,254

    TOPPING said:

    I missed all the chat about date of next general election and heard Rishi about when the next likely date is.

    THAT SAID.

    With the Cons looking like they are going to get a shellacking to end all shellackings, why on earth wouldn't they wait until the last possible moment and go for 2025. At the margin things may get worse but as far as the current govt is concerned who cares. Losing a few more seats is neither here nor there if you are facing a huge defeat. Meanwhile Rishi is PM and is trying to build his legacy where duration is a key factor.

    Rishi (1yr, 82 days) is currently nestled under the Duke of Grafton in 48th place. He can bump that up 10 places by waiting for another 375 days or so.

    2025 next GE is currently 26s (bf) and I have had a modest stake to this end.

    Tory 2019 voters are dying at a 4:1 ratio vs Labour voters. Thats about another 200k vote swing to Labour for waiting a full year.
    What an idiotic post. According to this logic a 20yr old Labour voter will remain voting Labour until they die at 90yrs old. At some point that Lab voter (by your own logic) will become a Cons voter. So for every Cons voter that rolls off this mortal coil, a new one will emerge, blinking into the sunlight out of their cocoon of voting Lab.
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,231
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Talking of journalists stealing PB debates, I see the villainous @SeanT has borrowed our convo about litter and turned it into some kind of spurious elegy for All of Western Civilisation

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/sicily-and-the-slow-collapse-of-civilisation/

    You'd think if he was going to nick stuff from you on PB he'd at least choose something interesting.

    Bit of a backhanded compliment there
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,983
    Leon said:

    Grant Shapps on BBC just now with a Boris style hairdo!

    Does that indicate something?

    Doesn’t he a famously have a toupee?

    @Dura_Ace often and amusingly comments on it
    Full fucking syrup of figs.


  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,917

    Leon said:

    Talking of journalists stealing PB debates, I see the villainous @SeanT has borrowed our convo about litter and turned it into some kind of spurious elegy for All of Western Civilisation

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/sicily-and-the-slow-collapse-of-civilisation/

    I wonder when Mr Thomas last visited Sicily. I am a regular traveller to Sicily and I do not recognise the picture painted. It is true Palermo still remains poor, unkemp (one could
    twin it with Wednesbury) and dominated by the Mafia,but the area around Ragusa, of which your friend writes, post Moltalbano is buzzing. But even Palermo has come along way in the thirty years since Falcone was assassinated, and one cannot move for the new holiday homes of the wealthy along the coast from Palermo to Cefalu.
    He’s not imagining it


    https://www.leben-pur.ch/en/italy-sicily-giant-waste-problem/

    https://community.ricksteves.com/travel-forum/italy/trash-in-sicily

    https://www.withoutenvy.com/basta/

    https://www.gintravels.com/2019/07/24/dark-side-of-sicily-trash/
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,868
    TOPPING said:

    I missed all the chat about date of next general election and heard Rishi about when the next likely date is.

    THAT SAID.

    With the Cons looking like they are going to get a shellacking to end all shellackings, why on earth wouldn't they wait until the last possible moment and go for 2025.

    Richi has an incentive to wait as long as possible.

    Other people have an incentive to go sooner.

    Richi won't make it till November
  • Options
    maxhmaxh Posts: 825
    edited January 15
    FPT
    Pagan2 said:

    If you want to unite the british public, form a party that says all current mp's, civil servants and quangocrats get 5 years in prison. Most of us would vote to send the fuckers down

    You have many great attributes @Pagan2 but ‘voice of the people’ is not, I hazard a guess, amongst them.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,524
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for @Sandpit

    “I’ve liked Burnham ever since his appearance at Anfield on the anniversary of the Hillsborough tragedy.

    As the Sports Minister, he was booed by the crowd, but turned them around and promised them that they would see justice - then followed through and ensured that it happened.”

    ++++


    Yes.

    The other day I was moaning that there are almost no British politicians that I even slightly admire, or respect, or anything - but actually Burnham is one. He seems honest, direct, intelligent and he has a tiny trace of dynamism where you think Well maybe he will actually do something, rather than just whine or evade or waffle

    Also Manchester (to this outsider) seems to have done quite well these last years, under his mayoralty

    Compare and contrast with the soul sapping void of inertia that is Sir Keir Starmer. I can’t see Starmer doing ANYTHING. Tho, I suppose, that does give him plenty of room to surprise on the upside

    Oh, absolutely. Friends in Manchester say he’s done well for the city.

    Just compare him to the mayor of London.
    Oh God. Don’t

    Khan

    I loathe him with a passion that is bad for my blood pressure
    Exactly!
    I seem to be alone in being fine with Khan and finding Burnham, while an impressive politician, a tiny bit chippy.

    BUT…this leads me on to a theory. Could the neutralising effect of our doses of populist vaccine be starting to wear off? Are we due a booster?

    After 4 years of Trump it seemed clear the Americans got tired of the noise, the shrillness, the enervating effect of having a blowhard president and yearned for quiet competence. They got it, but now seem to be back fancying a bit of sound and fury again.

    After 3 years of Boris blundering loudly around the political playground and a few short weeks of Truss you could feel in the polls a longing for the car alarm to stop and a period of normal, quiet bureaucratic politics to follow.

    But for all his attempts at populism Rishi gives very managerial vibes. The Tory reputation problem is now not so much about a mendacious toff or wacko ideologue but weak incompetence.

    Then supercharge this with the Final Cut through of the PO scandal. It’s a reminder to fear the dead hand of bureaucracy, of time serving apparatchiks, people speaking platitudes. Watching the ITV drama leaves you craving people who speak plainly and from the heart.

    So the famous public longing for a period of quiet normality: maybe not so powerful anymore?
  • Options
    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Starmer came into office with a cunning plan. Masterful inactivity, save for to ridding the party of any trace of Corbynite lunacy. Simple but effective. Why make things difficult for yourself?

    He's carried it out well and will be reaping the reward soon.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,917
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Grant Shapps on BBC just now with a Boris style hairdo!

    Does that indicate something?

    Doesn’t he a famously have a toupee?

    @Dura_Ace often and amusingly comments on it
    Full fucking syrup of figs.


    lol

    Yes that’s pretty damn convincing

    You can also see why he wears it. He must be bald as an egg beneath. WITH the wig he looks rather youthful, almost ageless - mentally take it off and he would suddenly look 60
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,254
    Scott_xP said:

    TOPPING said:

    I missed all the chat about date of next general election and heard Rishi about when the next likely date is.

    THAT SAID.

    With the Cons looking like they are going to get a shellacking to end all shellackings, why on earth wouldn't they wait until the last possible moment and go for 2025.

    Richi has an incentive to wait as long as possible.

    Other people have an incentive to go sooner.

    Richi won't make it till November
    Yes he could be deposed but cui would bono from going sooner and being thrown out of power. If they want to be leader of the Cons that can come post GE surely.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,411
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Talking of journalists stealing PB debates, I see the villainous @SeanT has borrowed our convo about litter and turned it into some kind of spurious elegy for All of Western Civilisation

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/sicily-and-the-slow-collapse-of-civilisation/

    You'd think if he was going to nick stuff from you on PB he'd at least choose something interesting.

    i guess, once again, he will have to console himself that it is the Most Read Article on Spectator, this morning
    I've not read it in ages, but didn't realise things had come to quite such a pass.

    Btw saw this and thought of you.

    What's the opposite of a hedonic treadmill?

    The hedonic treadmill is so powerful that Dan Bilzerian, the Jesus of Hedonism, wants to work at Walmart for 6 months to reset his hedonic baseline...

    https://twitter.com/george__mack/status/1746466661769548004
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,664
    edited January 15
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I missed all the chat about date of next general election and heard Rishi about when the next likely date is.

    THAT SAID.

    With the Cons looking like they are going to get a shellacking to end all shellackings, why on earth wouldn't they wait until the last possible moment and go for 2025. At the margin things may get worse but as far as the current govt is concerned who cares. Losing a few more seats is neither here nor there if you are facing a huge defeat. Meanwhile Rishi is PM and is trying to build his legacy where duration is a key factor.

    Rishi (1yr, 82 days) is currently nestled under the Duke of Grafton in 48th place. He can bump that up 10 places by waiting for another 375 days or so.

    2025 next GE is currently 26s (bf) and I have had a modest stake to this end.

    Tory 2019 voters are dying at a 4:1 ratio vs Labour voters. Thats about another 200k vote swing to Labour for waiting a full year.
    What an idiotic post. According to this logic a 20yr old Labour voter will remain voting Labour until they die at 90yrs old. At some point that Lab voter (by your own logic) will become a Cons voter. So for every Cons voter that rolls off this mortal coil, a new one will emerge, blinking into the sunlight out of their cocoon of voting Lab.
    If people have something to conserve they are more likely to vote for a conservative party so this happened in the past.

    Two issues:

    The type of people who might "crossover" are the worst hit by housing crisis and household finance issues.
    Todays Conservative party is the opposite of conservative, wrecking our instititions for no gain bar Daily Mail and GBeebbies headlines.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,079
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Grant Shapps on BBC just now with a Boris style hairdo!

    Does that indicate something?

    Doesn’t he a famously have a toupee?

    @Dura_Ace often and amusingly comments on it
    Full fucking syrup of figs.


    I really struggle to take seriously men who wear toupees. Of course I understand the motivation, but it just seems so absurd.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,365
    edited January 15
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for @Sandpit

    “I’ve liked Burnham ever since his appearance at Anfield on the anniversary of the Hillsborough tragedy.

    As the Sports Minister, he was booed by the crowd, but turned them around and promised them that they would see justice - then followed through and ensured that it happened.”

    ++++


    Yes.

    The other day I was moaning that there are almost no British politicians that I even slightly admire, or respect, or anything - but actually Burnham is one. He seems honest, direct, intelligent and he has a tiny trace of dynamism where you think Well maybe he will actually do something, rather than just whine or evade or waffle

    Also Manchester (to this outsider) seems to have done quite well these last years, under his mayoralty

    Compare and contrast with the soul sapping void of inertia that is Sir Keir Starmer. I can’t see Starmer doing ANYTHING. Tho, I suppose, that does give him plenty of room to surprise on the upside

    Oh, absolutely. Friends in Manchester say he’s done well for the city.

    Just compare him to the mayor of London.
    Oh God. Don’t

    Khan

    I loathe him with a passion that is bad for my blood pressure
    Exactly!
    i don’t think Khan even LIKES London, or particularly cares about it. He’s just some grey managerialist puritan careerist technocrat doing a well paid job, with a faint disapproval of human pleasure, which he only allows under sufferance

    Burnham ALWAYS sounds like he loves Manchester, and Mancunians, and he always comes across like he is genuinely proud of the city

    And yet the beigeness that is Khan will win again. Gawd ‘elp us
    I am, as some posters may have picked up, no great enthusiast for the Labour Party. But I think Burnham has done an excellent job as mayor of GM. I must admit, I was pretty wary of him when he came in (I thought his unelected predecessor, Tony Lloyd, was doing a pretty good job and that Burnham was just a big name without necessarily any substance), but I'd say Burnham has been even better. Like Lloyd, he's been a pragmatic advocate for the city rather than a - well, whatever Khan is in London - but his profile has given him the opportunity to battle a bit harder.

    I also thought he was excellent during covid, and a lot more nuanced and intelligent than the Labour leadership were.

    He has the trick which is surprisingly uncommon in politicians that he genuinely appears to like the people he represents. This isn't just a trick for the telly - he does it in real life too. Also, he was very nice to my (then 9 year old) daughter when she met him.

    EDIT - would also add that while he has been positive for GM, the fact that Manchester has done well is down to a small degree to him and to a large degree to the culture (both politcal and civic) that has been in place since long before he arrived. He's good, but civic success depends on years and years of the right culture being in place.
    If only UK Labour was like GM Labour.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,411
    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Talking of journalists stealing PB debates, I see the villainous @SeanT has borrowed our convo about litter and turned it into some kind of spurious elegy for All of Western Civilisation

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/sicily-and-the-slow-collapse-of-civilisation/

    You'd think if he was going to nick stuff from you on PB he'd at least choose something interesting.

    Bit of a backhanded compliment there
    Indeed.
    Leon can be quite entertaining.
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,231
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for @Sandpit

    “I’ve liked Burnham ever since his appearance at Anfield on the anniversary of the Hillsborough tragedy.

    As the Sports Minister, he was booed by the crowd, but turned them around and promised them that they would see justice - then followed through and ensured that it happened.”

    ++++


    Yes.

    The other day I was moaning that there are almost no British politicians that I even slightly admire, or respect, or anything - but actually Burnham is one. He seems honest, direct, intelligent and he has a tiny trace of dynamism where you think Well maybe he will actually do something, rather than just whine or evade or waffle

    Also Manchester (to this outsider) seems to have done quite well these last years, under his mayoralty

    Compare and contrast with the soul sapping void of inertia that is Sir Keir Starmer. I can’t see Starmer doing ANYTHING. Tho, I suppose, that does give him plenty of room to surprise on the upside

    Oh, absolutely. Friends in Manchester say he’s done well for the city.

    Just compare him to the mayor of London.
    Oh God. Don’t

    Khan

    I loathe him with a passion that is bad for my blood pressure
    "What was it that first repelled you about Sadiq Khan?"
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,868
    TOPPING said:

    Yes he could be deposed but cui would bono from going sooner and being thrown out of power.

    One of those who will lose their seat under Richi
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,382

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for @Sandpit

    “I’ve liked Burnham ever since his appearance at Anfield on the anniversary of the Hillsborough tragedy.

    As the Sports Minister, he was booed by the crowd, but turned them around and promised them that they would see justice - then followed through and ensured that it happened.”

    ++++


    Yes.

    The other day I was moaning that there are almost no British politicians that I even slightly admire, or respect, or anything - but actually Burnham is one. He seems honest, direct, intelligent and he has a tiny trace of dynamism where you think Well maybe he will actually do something, rather than just whine or evade or waffle

    Also Manchester (to this outsider) seems to have done quite well these last years, under his mayoralty

    Compare and contrast with the soul sapping void of inertia that is Sir Keir Starmer. I can’t see Starmer doing ANYTHING. Tho, I suppose, that does give him plenty of room to surprise on the upside

    Oh, absolutely. Friends in Manchester say he’s done well for the city.

    Just compare him to the mayor of London.
    Oh God. Don’t

    Khan

    I loathe him with a passion that is bad for my blood pressure
    How have the Tories managed to select someone as deranged as they have? If Khan is as bad as suggested, a sane candidate could defeat him. Right?
    None of the Conservative Mayoral candidates have been that spectacular (Archer was selected until he had to stand down, Norris, Johnson, Goldsmith, Bailey and now Hall). The two big names there were both distinctly shop-worn. After all, even BoJo took the job to work his passage back into politics after lying to Howard about something.

    Partly, Conservatives are much more obsessed with Westminster as the true seat of power. Also, the Conservative core vote these days is in the sort of places that don't really want to be in Greater London at all. So even in good times, Conservatives have to choose from a very incomplete deck.

    And these aren't good times. London Conservatives are currently so minor that their membership is made up of the kind of people who think Susan Hall is great.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,966
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for @Sandpit

    “I’ve liked Burnham ever since his appearance at Anfield on the anniversary of the Hillsborough tragedy.

    As the Sports Minister, he was booed by the crowd, but turned them around and promised them that they would see justice - then followed through and ensured that it happened.”

    ++++


    Yes.

    The other day I was moaning that there are almost no British politicians that I even slightly admire, or respect, or anything - but actually Burnham is one. He seems honest, direct, intelligent and he has a tiny trace of dynamism where you think Well maybe he will actually do something, rather than just whine or evade or waffle

    Also Manchester (to this outsider) seems to have done quite well these last years, under his mayoralty

    Compare and contrast with the soul sapping void of inertia that is Sir Keir Starmer. I can’t see Starmer doing ANYTHING. Tho, I suppose, that does give him plenty of room to surprise on the upside

    Oh, absolutely. Friends in Manchester say he’s done well for the city.

    Just compare him to the mayor of London.
    Oh God. Don’t

    Khan

    I loathe him with a passion that is bad for my blood pressure
    Exactly!
    i don’t think Khan even LIKES London, or particularly cares about it. He’s just some grey managerialist puritan careerist technocrat doing a well paid job, with a faint disapproval of human pleasure, which he only allows under sufferance

    Burnham ALWAYS sounds like he loves Manchester, and Mancunians, and he always comes across like he is genuinely proud of the city

    And yet the beigeness that is Khan will win again. Gawd ‘elp us
    That’s the best description of Khan I have read. Have you considered a career as a journalist?
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 3,679
    edited January 15
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I missed all the chat about date of next general election and heard Rishi about when the next likely date is.

    THAT SAID.

    With the Cons looking like they are going to get a shellacking to end all shellackings, why on earth wouldn't they wait until the last possible moment and go for 2025. At the margin things may get worse but as far as the current govt is concerned who cares. Losing a few more seats is neither here nor there if you are facing a huge defeat. Meanwhile Rishi is PM and is trying to build his legacy where duration is a key factor.

    Rishi (1yr, 82 days) is currently nestled under the Duke of Grafton in 48th place. He can bump that up 10 places by waiting for another 375 days or so.

    2025 next GE is currently 26s (bf) and I have had a modest stake to this end.

    Tory 2019 voters are dying at a 4:1 ratio vs Labour voters. Thats about another 200k vote swing to Labour for waiting a full year.
    What an idiotic post. According to this logic a 20yr old Labour voter will remain voting Labour until they die at 90yrs old. At some point that Lab voter (by your own logic) will become a Cons voter. So for every Cons voter that rolls off this mortal coil, a new one will emerge, blinking into the sunlight out of their cocoon of voting Lab.
    I did see this visualisation of what I think is the same polling that shows the relationship between this somewhat:


  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,254

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I missed all the chat about date of next general election and heard Rishi about when the next likely date is.

    THAT SAID.

    With the Cons looking like they are going to get a shellacking to end all shellackings, why on earth wouldn't they wait until the last possible moment and go for 2025. At the margin things may get worse but as far as the current govt is concerned who cares. Losing a few more seats is neither here nor there if you are facing a huge defeat. Meanwhile Rishi is PM and is trying to build his legacy where duration is a key factor.

    Rishi (1yr, 82 days) is currently nestled under the Duke of Grafton in 48th place. He can bump that up 10 places by waiting for another 375 days or so.

    2025 next GE is currently 26s (bf) and I have had a modest stake to this end.

    Tory 2019 voters are dying at a 4:1 ratio vs Labour voters. Thats about another 200k vote swing to Labour for waiting a full year.
    What an idiotic post. According to this logic a 20yr old Labour voter will remain voting Labour until they die at 90yrs old. At some point that Lab voter (by your own logic) will become a Cons voter. So for every Cons voter that rolls off this mortal coil, a new one will emerge, blinking into the sunlight out of their cocoon of voting Lab.
    If people have something to conserve they are more likely to vote for a conservative party so this happened in the past.

    Two issues:

    The type of people who might "crossover" are the worst hit by housing crisis and household finance issues.
    Todays Conservative party is the opposite of conservative, wrecking our instititions for no gain bar Daily Mail and GBeebbies headlines.
    But my premise is sound. If Cons skew older then at some point younger (presumably non-Cons voters) become Cons voters.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,254
    Scott_xP said:

    TOPPING said:

    Yes he could be deposed but cui would bono from going sooner and being thrown out of power.

    One of those who will lose their seat under Richi
    Hmm interesting - can you name names because it seems quite convoluted to say that someone believes they will ride into power as PM and save their own seat if it is due to be lost as it stands.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,411

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Grant Shapps on BBC just now with a Boris style hairdo!

    Does that indicate something?

    Doesn’t he a famously have a toupee?

    @Dura_Ace often and amusingly comments on it
    Full fucking syrup of figs.


    I really struggle to take seriously men who wear toupees. Of course I understand the motivation, but it just seems so absurd.
    It's an alternative to wearing a hat, I guess.
    And you don't have to take it off indoors.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    CD13 said:

    Starmer came into office with a cunning plan. Masterful inactivity, save for to ridding the party of any trace of Corbynite lunacy. Simple but effective. Why make things difficult for yourself?

    He's carried it out well and will be reaping the reward soon.

    Inactivity works less well once in office though. Either you control events or events control you.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,524
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:

    TOPPING said:

    I missed all the chat about date of next general election and heard Rishi about when the next likely date is.

    THAT SAID.

    With the Cons looking like they are going to get a shellacking to end all shellackings, why on earth wouldn't they wait until the last possible moment and go for 2025.

    Richi has an incentive to wait as long as possible.

    Other people have an incentive to go sooner.

    Richi won't make it till November
    Yes he could be deposed but cui would bono from going sooner and being thrown out of power. If they want to be leader of the Cons that can come post GE surely.
    You could foresee something like a half hearted putsch in May which Rishi survives, as MPs consider the madness of replacing a PM yet again and knuckle down to the election.

    Then the inevitable “we weren’t right wing enough” leadership election afterwards, with the two versions of right wing being up for grabs: anti-woke nationalism, and tea party slash-the-state Trussism. With David Frost emerging as the Delphic oracle touring the TV studios to pass his judgment on each candidate.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,097
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Talking of journalists stealing PB debates, I see the villainous @SeanT has borrowed our convo about litter and turned it into some kind of spurious elegy for All of Western Civilisation

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/sicily-and-the-slow-collapse-of-civilisation/

    I wonder when Mr Thomas last visited Sicily. I am a regular traveller to Sicily and I do not recognise the picture painted. It is true Palermo still remains poor, unkemp (one could
    twin it with Wednesbury) and dominated by the Mafia,but the area around Ragusa, of which your friend writes, post Moltalbano is buzzing. But even Palermo has come along way in the thirty years since Falcone was assassinated, and one cannot move for the new holiday homes of the wealthy along the coast from Palermo to Cefalu.
    He’s not imagining it


    https://www.leben-pur.ch/en/italy-sicily-giant-waste-problem/

    https://community.ricksteves.com/travel-forum/italy/trash-in-sicily

    https://www.withoutenvy.com/basta/

    https://www.gintravels.com/2019/07/24/dark-side-of-sicily-trash/
    So Mr Thomas is basing his analysis on third parties who have photographed discarded refuse and end of life vehicles throughout Sicily. I could replicate every photograph within 20 miles of where I live, here in the Vale of Glamorgan, except the graffiti which I will concede to Mr Thomas is as bad as it gets anywhere in Europe.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,868
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:

    TOPPING said:

    Yes he could be deposed but cui would bono from going sooner and being thrown out of power.

    One of those who will lose their seat under Richi
    Hmm interesting - can you name names because it seems quite convoluted to say that someone believes they will ride into power as PM and save their own seat if it is due to be lost as it stands.
    I didn't say ride into power, but binning Richi could save some seats. Some people might think that was worth it.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,365

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Grant Shapps on BBC just now with a Boris style hairdo!

    Does that indicate something?

    Doesn’t he a famously have a toupee?

    @Dura_Ace often and amusingly comments on it
    Full fucking syrup of figs.


    I really struggle to take seriously men who wear toupees. Of course I understand the motivation, but it just seems so absurd.
    They are, at least, one up from the combover. Which is fooling no-one at all.
    The combover is perhaps more dignified and honest. But also looks more ridiculous.
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Talking of journalists stealing PB debates, I see the villainous @SeanT has borrowed our convo about litter and turned it into some kind of spurious elegy for All of Western Civilisation

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/sicily-and-the-slow-collapse-of-civilisation/

    You'd think if he was going to nick stuff from you on PB he'd at least choose something interesting.

    i guess, once again, he will have to console himself that it is the Most Read Article on Spectator, this morning
    Wait until he has to write pro Muslim/Arab content for the new owners.

    Almost makes me want to see the takeover to go ahead.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,917
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for @Sandpit

    “I’ve liked Burnham ever since his appearance at Anfield on the anniversary of the Hillsborough tragedy.

    As the Sports Minister, he was booed by the crowd, but turned them around and promised them that they would see justice - then followed through and ensured that it happened.”

    ++++


    Yes.

    The other day I was moaning that there are almost no British politicians that I even slightly admire, or respect, or anything - but actually Burnham is one. He seems honest, direct, intelligent and he has a tiny trace of dynamism where you think Well maybe he will actually do something, rather than just whine or evade or waffle

    Also Manchester (to this outsider) seems to have done quite well these last years, under his mayoralty

    Compare and contrast with the soul sapping void of inertia that is Sir Keir Starmer. I can’t see Starmer doing ANYTHING. Tho, I suppose, that does give him plenty of room to surprise on the upside

    Oh, absolutely. Friends in Manchester say he’s done well for the city.

    Just compare him to the mayor of London.
    Oh God. Don’t

    Khan

    I loathe him with a passion that is bad for my blood pressure
    Exactly!
    i don’t think Khan even LIKES London, or particularly cares about it. He’s just some grey managerialist puritan careerist technocrat doing a well paid job, with a faint disapproval of human pleasure, which he only allows under sufferance

    Burnham ALWAYS sounds like he loves Manchester, and Mancunians, and he always comes across like he is genuinely proud of the city

    And yet the beigeness that is Khan will win again. Gawd ‘elp us
    I am, as some posters may have picked up, no great enthusiast for the Labour Party. But I think Burnham has done an excellent job as mayor of GM. I must admit, I was pretty wary of him when he came in (I thought his unelected predecessor, Tony Lloyd, was doing a pretty good job and that Burnham was just a big name without necessarily any substance), but I'd say Burnham has been even better. Like Lloyd, he's been a pragmatic advocate for the city rather than a - well, whatever Khan is in London - but his profile has given him the opportunity to battle a bit harder.

    I also thought he was excellent during covid, and a lot more nuanced and intelligent than the Labour leadership were.

    He has the trick which is surprisingly uncommon in politicians that he genuinely appears to like the people he represents. This isn't just a trick for the telly - he does it in real life too. Also, he was very nice to my (then 9 year old) daughter when she met him.

    EDIT - would also add that while he has been positive for GM, the fact that Manchester has done well is down to a small degree to him and to a large degree to the culture (both politcal and civic) that has been in place since long before he arrived. He's good, but civic success depends on years and years of the right culture being in place.
    If only UK Labour was like GM Labour.
    Interesting, thanks

    It’s mildly encouraging to learn that an impression formed via TV and news articles - that Burnham is likeable and competent, is actually confirmed by real life encounters. One always worries

    For the purposes of clarity I know a couple of people that know Khan. They say he is pleasant enough, and was a pretty good, hard working MP for Tooting, but seriously lacking in charisma, ideas, energy and definitely over promoted as London Mayor

    He should have stayed MP for Tooting. That was about his ideal level
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,966
    edited January 15
    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Grant Shapps on BBC just now with a Boris style hairdo!

    Does that indicate something?

    Doesn’t he a famously have a toupee?

    @Dura_Ace often and amusingly comments on it
    Full fucking syrup of figs.


    lol

    Yes that’s pretty damn convincing

    You can also see why he wears it. He must be bald as an egg beneath. WITH the wig he looks rather youthful, almost ageless - mentally take it off and he would suddenly look 60
    I can’t understand why anyone would wear a wig like that! He would look better as a bald over 60 than as an idiot. See also - Fabricant.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    On topic, the implied headline voting figure is only a Lab+11 lead, which is not out of the bounds of recent polling but is distinctly on the light side. Now, perhaps that's a DK effect - where returning DKs should favour the Tories marginally (though not necessarily; they might remain abstainers, or vote Reform or another smaller party) - but it does seem close to a best-case scenario at the moment. Plus, the MRP doesn't take into account future tactical voting shifts, despite the fact we know both from direct polling and from Westminster by-elections that anti-Con tactical voting is a powerful dynamic.

    Conclusion: the YG figures are within the plausible range but very much at the Tories' optimistic end of them.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,917

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Talking of journalists stealing PB debates, I see the villainous @SeanT has borrowed our convo about litter and turned it into some kind of spurious elegy for All of Western Civilisation

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/sicily-and-the-slow-collapse-of-civilisation/

    You'd think if he was going to nick stuff from you on PB he'd at least choose something interesting.

    i guess, once again, he will have to console himself that it is the Most Read Article on Spectator, this morning
    Wait until he has to write pro Muslim/Arab content for the new owners.

    Almost makes me want to see the takeover to go ahead.
    He’s a venal hack. He will churn out any old shite for $$$
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,664
    edited January 15
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I missed all the chat about date of next general election and heard Rishi about when the next likely date is.

    THAT SAID.

    With the Cons looking like they are going to get a shellacking to end all shellackings, why on earth wouldn't they wait until the last possible moment and go for 2025. At the margin things may get worse but as far as the current govt is concerned who cares. Losing a few more seats is neither here nor there if you are facing a huge defeat. Meanwhile Rishi is PM and is trying to build his legacy where duration is a key factor.

    Rishi (1yr, 82 days) is currently nestled under the Duke of Grafton in 48th place. He can bump that up 10 places by waiting for another 375 days or so.

    2025 next GE is currently 26s (bf) and I have had a modest stake to this end.

    Tory 2019 voters are dying at a 4:1 ratio vs Labour voters. Thats about another 200k vote swing to Labour for waiting a full year.
    What an idiotic post. According to this logic a 20yr old Labour voter will remain voting Labour until they die at 90yrs old. At some point that Lab voter (by your own logic) will become a Cons voter. So for every Cons voter that rolls off this mortal coil, a new one will emerge, blinking into the sunlight out of their cocoon of voting Lab.
    If people have something to conserve they are more likely to vote for a conservative party so this happened in the past.

    Two issues:

    The type of people who might "crossover" are the worst hit by housing crisis and household finance issues.
    Todays Conservative party is the opposite of conservative, wrecking our instititions for no gain bar Daily Mail and GBeebbies headlines.
    But my premise is sound. If Cons skew older then at some point younger (presumably non-Cons voters) become Cons voters.
    In general, yes. Look at the graph that has been posted below.

    Since 2019

    1.2m Tory voters died
    200k Labour voters switched to Tories.

    (That is before the 1.7m Tory voters switching to Labour, and many others to other parties and abstentions).
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,254
    edited January 15

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Grant Shapps on BBC just now with a Boris style hairdo!

    Does that indicate something?

    Doesn’t he a famously have a toupee?

    @Dura_Ace often and amusingly comments on it
    Full fucking syrup of figs.


    I really struggle to take seriously men who wear toupees. Of course I understand the motivation, but it just seems so absurd.
    That's pretty mean. People do all sorts of things for their appearance. Wearing a toupee is but one of them.

    Edit: and no I don't wear a toupee but each to their own.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,079
    148grss said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for @Sandpit

    “I’ve liked Burnham ever since his appearance at Anfield on the anniversary of the Hillsborough tragedy.

    As the Sports Minister, he was booed by the crowd, but turned them around and promised them that they would see justice - then followed through and ensured that it happened.”

    ++++


    Yes.

    The other day I was moaning that there are almost no British politicians that I even slightly admire, or respect, or anything - but actually Burnham is one. He seems honest, direct, intelligent and he has a tiny trace of dynamism where you think Well maybe he will actually do something, rather than just whine or evade or waffle

    Also Manchester (to this outsider) seems to have done quite well these last years, under his mayoralty

    Compare and contrast with the soul sapping void of inertia that is Sir Keir Starmer. I can’t see Starmer doing ANYTHING. Tho, I suppose, that does give him plenty of room to surprise on the upside

    Oh, absolutely. Friends in Manchester say he’s done well for the city.

    Just compare him to the mayor of London.
    Most of my friends in London barely think about Khan - and when they do it's kind of ambivalent. I think for many Londoners they don't feel the impact of the mayor / GLA (probably because Westminster is so clearly there).
    I like Khan. He's done something brave and difficult - taking on the motoring lobby - in order to reduce the negative externalities that ICE vehicles impose on air quality, benefiting the most vulnerable and especially children. The Mayor of London has limited powers and he's used those powers well to deliver real change. He's even been willing to make himself unpopular in the process rather than choosing the easy option. To my mind that is exactly what politicians are for. Good on him.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,254
    TimS said:

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:

    TOPPING said:

    I missed all the chat about date of next general election and heard Rishi about when the next likely date is.

    THAT SAID.

    With the Cons looking like they are going to get a shellacking to end all shellackings, why on earth wouldn't they wait until the last possible moment and go for 2025.

    Richi has an incentive to wait as long as possible.

    Other people have an incentive to go sooner.

    Richi won't make it till November
    Yes he could be deposed but cui would bono from going sooner and being thrown out of power. If they want to be leader of the Cons that can come post GE surely.
    You could foresee something like a half hearted putsch in May which Rishi survives, as MPs consider the madness of replacing a PM yet again and knuckle down to the election.

    Then the inevitable “we weren’t right wing enough” leadership election afterwards, with the two versions of right wing being up for grabs: anti-woke nationalism, and tea party slash-the-state Trussism. With David Frost emerging as the Delphic oracle touring the TV studios to pass his judgment on each candidate.
    Yes that I can see - as to @Scott_P's point I can't see anyone being sophisticated enough to think getting rid of Rishi will save _some_ seats perhaps not mine, perhaps not mine and...then what? "Some" seats ain't going to amount to a hill of beans at the next GE.

    Anyway, I thought 26s (bf) was pretty good value and have bet accordingly.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,365
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Talking of journalists stealing PB debates, I see the villainous @SeanT has borrowed our convo about litter and turned it into some kind of spurious elegy for All of Western Civilisation

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/sicily-and-the-slow-collapse-of-civilisation/

    I wonder when Mr Thomas last visited Sicily. I am a regular traveller to Sicily and I do not recognise the picture painted. It is true Palermo still remains poor, unkemp (one could
    twin it with Wednesbury) and dominated by the Mafia,but the area around Ragusa, of which your friend writes, post Moltalbano is buzzing. But even Palermo has come along way in the thirty years since Falcone was assassinated, and one cannot move for the new holiday homes of the wealthy along the coast from Palermo to Cefalu.
    He’s not imagining it


    https://www.leben-pur.ch/en/italy-sicily-giant-waste-problem/

    https://community.ricksteves.com/travel-forum/italy/trash-in-sicily

    https://www.withoutenvy.com/basta/

    https://www.gintravels.com/2019/07/24/dark-side-of-sicily-trash/
    Interestingly, I have recently been reading a collection of Eric Newby's writing ('Departures and Arrivals'). His views on Sicily from 30-odd years ago(?) were similarly equivocal. My impression is that it's always been both amazing and awful.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,079
    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Grant Shapps on BBC just now with a Boris style hairdo!

    Does that indicate something?

    Doesn’t he a famously have a toupee?

    @Dura_Ace often and amusingly comments on it
    Full fucking syrup of figs.


    I really struggle to take seriously men who wear toupees. Of course I understand the motivation, but it just seems so absurd.
    That's pretty mean. People do all sorts of things for their appearance. Wearing a toupee is but one of them.

    Edit: and no I don't wear a toupee but each to their own.
    I am speaking as a bald man, BTW. It just seems such an absurd thing to do, although as I mentioned I certainly understand the motivation.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,917

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Grant Shapps on BBC just now with a Boris style hairdo!

    Does that indicate something?

    Doesn’t he a famously have a toupee?

    @Dura_Ace often and amusingly comments on it
    Full fucking syrup of figs.


    lol

    Yes that’s pretty damn convincing

    You can also see why he wears it. He must be bald as an egg beneath. WITH the wig he looks rather youthful, almost ageless - mentally take it off and he would suddenly look 60
    I can’t understand why anyone would wear a wig like that! He would look better as a bald over 60 than as an idiot. See also - Fabricant.
    Also, isn’t Shapps seriously rich?

    Hair implantation is now really pretty good (and miles more impressive and convincing than a toupee or a combover). See Wayne Rooney

    Why hasn’t he gone for that?

    i accept this is not the political issue of the year, but still. Weird
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    Grant Shapps on BBC just now with a Boris style hairdo!

    Does that indicate something?

    You can have a Bad Wig Day? Who knew....
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,254
    Scott_xP said:

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:

    TOPPING said:

    Yes he could be deposed but cui would bono from going sooner and being thrown out of power.

    One of those who will lose their seat under Richi
    Hmm interesting - can you name names because it seems quite convoluted to say that someone believes they will ride into power as PM and save their own seat if it is due to be lost as it stands.
    I didn't say ride into power, but binning Richi could save some seats. Some people might think that was worth it.
    btw "Richi" is in the same bin as "Bliar" et al.

    Does nothing for anyone, especially on PB.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,296
    My first grey hair has appeared.

    This is not a good start to the week.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,805
    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I missed all the chat about date of next general election and heard Rishi about when the next likely date is.

    THAT SAID.

    With the Cons looking like they are going to get a shellacking to end all shellackings, why on earth wouldn't they wait until the last possible moment and go for 2025. At the margin things may get worse but as far as the current govt is concerned who cares. Losing a few more seats is neither here nor there if you are facing a huge defeat. Meanwhile Rishi is PM and is trying to build his legacy where duration is a key factor.

    Rishi (1yr, 82 days) is currently nestled under the Duke of Grafton in 48th place. He can bump that up 10 places by waiting for another 375 days or so.

    2025 next GE is currently 26s (bf) and I have had a modest stake to this end.

    Tory 2019 voters are dying at a 4:1 ratio vs Labour voters. Thats about another 200k vote swing to Labour for waiting a full year.
    What an idiotic post. According to this logic a 20yr old Labour voter will remain voting Labour until they die at 90yrs old. At some point that Lab voter (by your own logic) will become a Cons voter. So for every Cons voter that rolls off this mortal coil, a new one will emerge, blinking into the sunlight out of their cocoon of voting Lab.
    I did see this visualisation of what I think is the same polling that shows the relationship between this somewhat:


    That's really good, what I've wanted to see.

    I'd expect a lot of votes in the don't know category to end up as will.not vote, as well as some swinging back Tory.

    Also, 50+% turnout in the Too Young to Vote section, even assuming those don't knows won't vote. Fewer voters than I thought in this cohort, I thought births were still around 600k a year, but only 12 blocks - even if I'm over on births, is the registration rate really that poor?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,917

    148grss said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    FPT for @Sandpit

    “I’ve liked Burnham ever since his appearance at Anfield on the anniversary of the Hillsborough tragedy.

    As the Sports Minister, he was booed by the crowd, but turned them around and promised them that they would see justice - then followed through and ensured that it happened.”

    ++++


    Yes.

    The other day I was moaning that there are almost no British politicians that I even slightly admire, or respect, or anything - but actually Burnham is one. He seems honest, direct, intelligent and he has a tiny trace of dynamism where you think Well maybe he will actually do something, rather than just whine or evade or waffle

    Also Manchester (to this outsider) seems to have done quite well these last years, under his mayoralty

    Compare and contrast with the soul sapping void of inertia that is Sir Keir Starmer. I can’t see Starmer doing ANYTHING. Tho, I suppose, that does give him plenty of room to surprise on the upside

    Oh, absolutely. Friends in Manchester say he’s done well for the city.

    Just compare him to the mayor of London.
    Most of my friends in London barely think about Khan - and when they do it's kind of ambivalent. I think for many Londoners they don't feel the impact of the mayor / GLA (probably because Westminster is so clearly there).
    I like Khan. He's done something brave and difficult - taking on the motoring lobby - in order to reduce the negative externalities that ICE vehicles impose on air quality, benefiting the most vulnerable and especially children. The Mayor of London has limited powers and he's used those powers well to deliver real change. He's even been willing to make himself unpopular in the process rather than choosing the easy option. To my mind that is exactly what politicians are for. Good on him.
    Fair enough

    It is actually interesting to hear someone make a positive case for Khan, nearly always it is “look at the Tory candidate, who is gonna vote for that” etc etc
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,233
    Eabhal said:

    TimS said:

    If anything, the poll underplays the problem for the Tories. YouGov says the model allows for tactical voting and maybe it does - but clearly not in all constituencies. My one - Honiton and Sidmouth - it has as a reasonably comfortable Tory win based on a split Labour and LibDem vote. That just isn’t going to happen. Ask the Labour CLP!!!

    It does show a much higher Lib Dem seat count than anything based on national polls is suggesting, so either that’s a feature of efficiency (which MRP should pick up) or tactical voting (which MRPs haven’t generally been programmed to do.
    This MRP does not take into account tactical voting. Makes it worse for the Tories in E&W, but introduces some uncertainty in the Scotland forecast.
    It does and it doesn't. There will be some tactical voting baked into the base data from each locality - for example the MRP suggests a good seat tally for the LibDems in Surrey, and many voters there already know that the LibDems are the challengers and will have responded to the poll accordingly.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,524

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Grant Shapps on BBC just now with a Boris style hairdo!

    Does that indicate something?

    Doesn’t he a famously have a toupee?

    @Dura_Ace often and amusingly comments on it
    Full fucking syrup of figs.


    I really struggle to take seriously men who wear toupees. Of course I understand the motivation, but it just seems so absurd.
    That's pretty mean. People do all sorts of things for their appearance. Wearing a toupee is but one of them.

    Edit: and no I don't wear a toupee but each to their own.
    I am speaking as a bald man, BTW. It just seems such an absurd thing to do, although as I mentioned I certainly understand the motivation.
    Ah, so it definitely wasn't you in the Hill Station on Saturday then.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    Pro_Rata said:

    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I missed all the chat about date of next general election and heard Rishi about when the next likely date is.

    THAT SAID.

    With the Cons looking like they are going to get a shellacking to end all shellackings, why on earth wouldn't they wait until the last possible moment and go for 2025. At the margin things may get worse but as far as the current govt is concerned who cares. Losing a few more seats is neither here nor there if you are facing a huge defeat. Meanwhile Rishi is PM and is trying to build his legacy where duration is a key factor.

    Rishi (1yr, 82 days) is currently nestled under the Duke of Grafton in 48th place. He can bump that up 10 places by waiting for another 375 days or so.

    2025 next GE is currently 26s (bf) and I have had a modest stake to this end.

    Tory 2019 voters are dying at a 4:1 ratio vs Labour voters. Thats about another 200k vote swing to Labour for waiting a full year.
    What an idiotic post. According to this logic a 20yr old Labour voter will remain voting Labour until they die at 90yrs old. At some point that Lab voter (by your own logic) will become a Cons voter. So for every Cons voter that rolls off this mortal coil, a new one will emerge, blinking into the sunlight out of their cocoon of voting Lab.
    I did see this visualisation of what I think is the same polling that shows the relationship between this somewhat:


    That's really good, what I've wanted to see.

    I'd expect a lot of votes in the don't know category to end up as will.not vote, as well as some swinging back Tory.

    Also, 50+% turnout in the Too Young to Vote section, even assuming those don't knows won't vote. Fewer voters than I thought in this cohort, I thought births were still around 600k a year, but only 12 blocks - even if I'm over on births, is the registration rate really that poor?
    Apparently so. However, experience from recent elections is that this is a just-in-time generation, who expect technology to be able to resolve non-registration in real-time, or near it. Expect the 18-24 registration rate to climb substantially through the year.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,382
    Scott_xP said:

    TOPPING said:

    Scott_xP said:

    TOPPING said:

    Yes he could be deposed but cui would bono from going sooner and being thrown out of power.

    One of those who will lose their seat under Richi
    Hmm interesting - can you name names because it seems quite convoluted to say that someone believes they will ride into power as PM and save their own seat if it is due to be lost as it stands.
    I didn't say ride into power, but binning Richi could save some seats. Some people might think that was worth it.
    Question is- how many?

    Some Conservative MPs are doomed whoever the leader is, and may even have got past the Denial stage.

    Some Conservative MPs are safe no matter what.

    And who wants to take over the leadership now? You get your photo on the Downing Street staircase and a resignation honours list, but that's about it.

    More likely- ongoing mumbling and grumbling causing Rishi to make more right wing noise whist trying to act within the bounds of reality.

    Happy 2024!
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,231
    Interesting, if possibly dodgy, poll that explicitly reminds people of the new political party in Germany has them (BSW) on 14%.

    https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article249517400/Insa-Umfrage-Zufriedenheit-mit-Ampel-auf-neuem-Tiefpunkt-Wagenknecht-bei-14-Prozent.html

    CDU/CSU 27%
    AfD 18%
    SPD 14%
    BSW 14%
    Greens 12%
    FDP 4%
    Left 3%
    FW 2%
    Others 5%

    As I believe CDU/CSU and SPD and Greens will all rule out any coalition with BSW (or AfD), and others won't make the cut, on this poll it would leave CDU/CSU + SPD + Greens as the only possible coalition, which is unlikely to please anyone...
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,855

    My first grey hair has appeared.

    This is not a good start to the week.

    I never had any grey hair before I got married, so now we know what causes grey hairs.

    (To be fair, neither did Mrs Sandpit).
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,079
    TimS said:

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Grant Shapps on BBC just now with a Boris style hairdo!

    Does that indicate something?

    Doesn’t he a famously have a toupee?

    @Dura_Ace often and amusingly comments on it
    Full fucking syrup of figs.


    I really struggle to take seriously men who wear toupees. Of course I understand the motivation, but it just seems so absurd.
    That's pretty mean. People do all sorts of things for their appearance. Wearing a toupee is but one of them.

    Edit: and no I don't wear a toupee but each to their own.
    I am speaking as a bald man, BTW. It just seems such an absurd thing to do, although as I mentioned I certainly understand the motivation.
    Ah, so it definitely wasn't you in the Hill Station on Saturday then.
    Ha no. What time? Might have been a mate of mine, he went there after our bike ride at about 10.30. I was there last night though picking up 5 pizzas to eat in front of The Traitors.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,983
    SKY NEWS NOW!

    Shappsie and his "Hairy Hat" are making a speech.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,254
    Sandpit said:

    My first grey hair has appeared.

    This is not a good start to the week.

    I never had any grey hair before I got married, so now we know what causes grey hairs.

    (To be fair, neither did Mrs Sandpit).
    So it's marriage. Oh and being PM or POTUS I seem to have observed.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,365

    My first grey hair has appeared.

    This is not a good start to the week.

    You must be in your 40s by now? To have got this far without any grey seems fortunate indeed.

    At least, you can console yourself (in the light of the Grant Shapps conversation) that you still have hair.

    I've been greying since my 20s. I'd actually say I prefer it now with rather more salt than pepper than 20 years ago when it just started getting salty. If only I can now hold on to what little is left (though again, I look at photos of me 20 years ago and a thick head of hair, and I never really carried it off particularly well even then.)
  • Options
    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    It’s all very well saying Starmer is crap but he’s heading up a party on course to win over a 100 seat majority, so really he’s done everything right and has been the best leader Labour may have ever had, if they win?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,167
    The Telegraph says it has been funded by a group of Tory donors called “the Conservative Britain Alliance”. No one has ever heard of them, but it seems fair to assume they are not Rishi Sunak supporters.

    Guardian live blog
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,917
    Cookie said:

    My first grey hair has appeared.

    This is not a good start to the week.

    You must be in your 40s by now? To have got this far without any grey seems fortunate indeed.

    At least, you can console yourself (in the light of the Grant Shapps conversation) that you still have hair.

    I've been greying since my 20s. I'd actually say I prefer it now with rather more salt than pepper than 20 years ago when it just started getting salty. If only I can now hold on to what little is left (though again, I look at photos of me 20 years ago and a thick head of hair, and I never really carried it off particularly well even then.)
    Greying is much much better than balding

    Interesting fact: hardcore alcoholics seldom go bald because all the booze reduces testosterone which is what causes hair loss
  • Options
    SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 594
    I see Mrs Fujitsu might lose her seat in Chichester.

  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,882
    edited January 15

    Pro_Rata said:

    148grss said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I missed all the chat about date of next general election and heard Rishi about when the next likely date is.

    THAT SAID.

    With the Cons looking like they are going to get a shellacking to end all shellackings, why on earth wouldn't they wait until the last possible moment and go for 2025. At the margin things may get worse but as far as the current govt is concerned who cares. Losing a few more seats is neither here nor there if you are facing a huge defeat. Meanwhile Rishi is PM and is trying to build his legacy where duration is a key factor.

    Rishi (1yr, 82 days) is currently nestled under the Duke of Grafton in 48th place. He can bump that up 10 places by waiting for another 375 days or so.

    2025 next GE is currently 26s (bf) and I have had a modest stake to this end.

    Tory 2019 voters are dying at a 4:1 ratio vs Labour voters. Thats about another 200k vote swing to Labour for waiting a full year.
    What an idiotic post. According to this logic a 20yr old Labour voter will remain voting Labour until they die at 90yrs old. At some point that Lab voter (by your own logic) will become a Cons voter. So for every Cons voter that rolls off this mortal coil, a new one will emerge, blinking into the sunlight out of their cocoon of voting Lab.
    I did see this visualisation of what I think is the same polling that shows the relationship between this somewhat:


    That's really good, what I've wanted to see.

    I'd expect a lot of votes in the don't know category to end up as will.not vote, as well as some swinging back Tory.

    Also, 50+% turnout in the Too Young to Vote section, even assuming those don't knows won't vote. Fewer voters than I thought in this cohort, I thought births were still around 600k a year, but only 12 blocks - even if I'm over on births, is the registration rate really that poor?
    Apparently so. However, experience from recent elections is that this is a just-in-time generation, who expect technology to be able to resolve non-registration in real-time, or near it. Expect the 18-24 registration rate to climb substantially through the year.
    Most 18-24 year olds have such uncertain living arrangements in the current climate that it makes no sense to register to vote until the election is called.

    I just registered to vote from overseas. Took 5 minutes. If it's May, will be the first election since 2010 that I have not hosted a chaotic drunken party, starting with shots at the BONG and ending with a bottle of whisky at 5am.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,524

    TimS said:

    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Grant Shapps on BBC just now with a Boris style hairdo!

    Does that indicate something?

    Doesn’t he a famously have a toupee?

    @Dura_Ace often and amusingly comments on it
    Full fucking syrup of figs.


    I really struggle to take seriously men who wear toupees. Of course I understand the motivation, but it just seems so absurd.
    That's pretty mean. People do all sorts of things for their appearance. Wearing a toupee is but one of them.

    Edit: and no I don't wear a toupee but each to their own.
    I am speaking as a bald man, BTW. It just seems such an absurd thing to do, although as I mentioned I certainly understand the motivation.
    Ah, so it definitely wasn't you in the Hill Station on Saturday then.
    Ha no. What time? Might have been a mate of mine, he went there after our bike ride at about 10.30. I was there last night though picking up 5 pizzas to eat in front of The Traitors.
    Saturday afternoon. There was a man fitting my mental image of you, which I’ll now have to recalibrate. Tapping away ferociously at his phone like someone on PB.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,167
    With all this MRP excitement it is easy to forget that today is Caucus Day.

    "The coldest Iowa caucuses in history arrive Monday night amid expectations that Republicans in the state will put former President Donald J. Trump on the march to a third G.O.P. presidential nomination.

    The battle for second place, hard-fought between Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, will anoint Mr. Trump’s closest rival ahead of the New Hampshire primary election and beyond."

    NY Times
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