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YouGov/Telegraph mega poll with forecasts for each seat predicts CON disaster – politicalbetting.com
YouGov/Telegraph mega poll with forecasts for each seat predicts CON disaster – politicalbetting.com
The big political news this morning is a 14k sample megapoll by YouGov for today’s Telegraph with detailed predictions for each of the seats. The outcome is terrible fo Sunak and his party.
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it is good, however, to see the yellow hordes being rolled back in beautiful Scotland
Tbh the way things are going the 2024 map might be a touch optimistic for the Tories.
Excl: The Home Office submitted plans to buy its own plane to deport migrants to Rwanda in 2022.
Rishi Sunak, as chancellor, blocked it on cost grounds:
Perhaps they should bring her back ?
“I’ve liked Burnham ever since his appearance at Anfield on the anniversary of the Hillsborough tragedy.
As the Sports Minister, he was booed by the crowd, but turned them around and promised them that they would see justice - then followed through and ensured that it happened.”
++++
Yes.
The other day I was moaning that there are almost no British politicians that I even slightly admire, or respect, or anything - but actually Burnham is one. He seems honest, direct, intelligent and he has a tiny trace of dynamism where you think Well maybe he will actually do something, rather than just whine or evade or waffle
Also Manchester (to this outsider) seems to have done quite well these last years, under his mayoralty
Compare and contrast with the soul sapping void of inertia that is Sir Keir Starmer. I can’t see Starmer doing ANYTHING. Tho, I suppose, that does give him plenty of room to surprise on the upside
Sunak will do a giveaway budget but won't call the election
Tory councillors will get reamed, leading to a push for a leadership contest
Unsure whether or not it happens, or if Sunak survives or not
Whatever, the polls only continue to get worse for the Tories
We roll through conference season and yet another will he announce date goes past
Faced with an election just before or just after Christmas, Sunak rolls the dice with January. And offers the Nigel whatever he wants to go away. Nigel refuses.
Who will be the first Tory to defect to RefUK? Keep an eye on Lee Anderson...
Does that indicate something?
@Dura_Ace often and amusingly comments on it
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/sicily-and-the-slow-collapse-of-civilisation/
Just compare him to the mayor of London.
Khan
I loathe him with a passion that is bad for my blood pressure
Burnham ALWAYS sounds like he loves Manchester, and Mancunians, and he always comes across like he is genuinely proud of the city
And yet the beigeness that is Khan will win again. Gawd ‘elp us
THAT SAID.
With the Cons looking like they are going to get a shellacking to end all shellackings, why on earth wouldn't they wait until the last possible moment and go for 2025. At the margin things may get worse but as far as the current govt is concerned who cares. Losing a few more seats is neither here nor there if you are facing a huge defeat. Meanwhile Rishi is PM and is trying to build his legacy where duration is a key factor.
Rishi (1yr, 82 days) is currently nestled under the Duke of Grafton in 48th place. He can bump that up 10 places by waiting for another 375 days or so.
2025 next GE is currently 26s (bf) and I have had a modest stake to this end.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrMIXufbc4c&t=82s
Whatever the case I have not ever met anyone enthused by Khan. Ambivelence or MEH is about as positive as it gets, lots of people seriously abhor him
Also, three terms? Really?? Fuck off. There should be two term limits for the mayoralty. Enough already
The Tories *need* an extinction-level event so we/they can build a centre-right Party (probably still called the Conservative Party) from the various factions that have been eliminated and disaffected in the last decade. Something to attract young people who are not satisfied with centre-left arguments as to how to address their concerns of generational poverty, climate change, conflict etc.
What the MRP isn't backed by is an opinion poll in the normal sense of the word, because the polling itself is then changed by making enormous assumptions about allocating back undecided voters based on demographic characteristics. Based on the little we know about the method, it's reasonable to suspect that those assumptions must be behind the vote shares which appear to be so out of line with national polling results including those from YouGov. So I think there are question marks about the methodology, and maybe the lack of transparency is because Lord Frost didn't want the political headlines he wants to generate to be undermined by questions over the legitimacy of the projections.
https://www.leben-pur.ch/en/italy-sicily-giant-waste-problem/
https://community.ricksteves.com/travel-forum/italy/trash-in-sicily
https://www.withoutenvy.com/basta/
https://www.gintravels.com/2019/07/24/dark-side-of-sicily-trash/
Other people have an incentive to go sooner.
Richi won't make it till November
BUT…this leads me on to a theory. Could the neutralising effect of our doses of populist vaccine be starting to wear off? Are we due a booster?
After 4 years of Trump it seemed clear the Americans got tired of the noise, the shrillness, the enervating effect of having a blowhard president and yearned for quiet competence. They got it, but now seem to be back fancying a bit of sound and fury again.
After 3 years of Boris blundering loudly around the political playground and a few short weeks of Truss you could feel in the polls a longing for the car alarm to stop and a period of normal, quiet bureaucratic politics to follow.
But for all his attempts at populism Rishi gives very managerial vibes. The Tory reputation problem is now not so much about a mendacious toff or wacko ideologue but weak incompetence.
Then supercharge this with the Final Cut through of the PO scandal. It’s a reminder to fear the dead hand of bureaucracy, of time serving apparatchiks, people speaking platitudes. Watching the ITV drama leaves you craving people who speak plainly and from the heart.
So the famous public longing for a period of quiet normality: maybe not so powerful anymore?
He's carried it out well and will be reaping the reward soon.
Yes that’s pretty damn convincing
You can also see why he wears it. He must be bald as an egg beneath. WITH the wig he looks rather youthful, almost ageless - mentally take it off and he would suddenly look 60
Btw saw this and thought of you.
What's the opposite of a hedonic treadmill?
The hedonic treadmill is so powerful that Dan Bilzerian, the Jesus of Hedonism, wants to work at Walmart for 6 months to reset his hedonic baseline...
https://twitter.com/george__mack/status/1746466661769548004
Two issues:
The type of people who might "crossover" are the worst hit by housing crisis and household finance issues.
Todays Conservative party is the opposite of conservative, wrecking our instititions for no gain bar Daily Mail and GBeebbies headlines.
I also thought he was excellent during covid, and a lot more nuanced and intelligent than the Labour leadership were.
He has the trick which is surprisingly uncommon in politicians that he genuinely appears to like the people he represents. This isn't just a trick for the telly - he does it in real life too. Also, he was very nice to my (then 9 year old) daughter when she met him.
EDIT - would also add that while he has been positive for GM, the fact that Manchester has done well is down to a small degree to him and to a large degree to the culture (both politcal and civic) that has been in place since long before he arrived. He's good, but civic success depends on years and years of the right culture being in place.
If only UK Labour was like GM Labour.
Leon can be quite entertaining.
Partly, Conservatives are much more obsessed with Westminster as the true seat of power. Also, the Conservative core vote these days is in the sort of places that don't really want to be in Greater London at all. So even in good times, Conservatives have to choose from a very incomplete deck.
And these aren't good times. London Conservatives are currently so minor that their membership is made up of the kind of people who think Susan Hall is great.
And you don't have to take it off indoors.
Then the inevitable “we weren’t right wing enough” leadership election afterwards, with the two versions of right wing being up for grabs: anti-woke nationalism, and tea party slash-the-state Trussism. With David Frost emerging as the Delphic oracle touring the TV studios to pass his judgment on each candidate.
The combover is perhaps more dignified and honest. But also looks more ridiculous.
Almost makes me want to see the takeover to go ahead.
It’s mildly encouraging to learn that an impression formed via TV and news articles - that Burnham is likeable and competent, is actually confirmed by real life encounters. One always worries
For the purposes of clarity I know a couple of people that know Khan. They say he is pleasant enough, and was a pretty good, hard working MP for Tooting, but seriously lacking in charisma, ideas, energy and definitely over promoted as London Mayor
He should have stayed MP for Tooting. That was about his ideal level
Conclusion: the YG figures are within the plausible range but very much at the Tories' optimistic end of them.
Since 2019
1.2m Tory voters died
200k Labour voters switched to Tories.
(That is before the 1.7m Tory voters switching to Labour, and many others to other parties and abstentions).
Edit: and no I don't wear a toupee but each to their own.
Anyway, I thought 26s (bf) was pretty good value and have bet accordingly.
Hair implantation is now really pretty good (and miles more impressive and convincing than a toupee or a combover). See Wayne Rooney
Why hasn’t he gone for that?
i accept this is not the political issue of the year, but still. Weird
Does nothing for anyone, especially on PB.
This is not a good start to the week.
I'd expect a lot of votes in the don't know category to end up as will.not vote, as well as some swinging back Tory.
Also, 50+% turnout in the Too Young to Vote section, even assuming those don't knows won't vote. Fewer voters than I thought in this cohort, I thought births were still around 600k a year, but only 12 blocks - even if I'm over on births, is the registration rate really that poor?
It is actually interesting to hear someone make a positive case for Khan, nearly always it is “look at the Tory candidate, who is gonna vote for that” etc etc
Some Conservative MPs are doomed whoever the leader is, and may even have got past the Denial stage.
Some Conservative MPs are safe no matter what.
And who wants to take over the leadership now? You get your photo on the Downing Street staircase and a resignation honours list, but that's about it.
More likely- ongoing mumbling and grumbling causing Rishi to make more right wing noise whist trying to act within the bounds of reality.
Happy 2024!
https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article249517400/Insa-Umfrage-Zufriedenheit-mit-Ampel-auf-neuem-Tiefpunkt-Wagenknecht-bei-14-Prozent.html
CDU/CSU 27%
AfD 18%
SPD 14%
BSW 14%
Greens 12%
FDP 4%
Left 3%
FW 2%
Others 5%
As I believe CDU/CSU and SPD and Greens will all rule out any coalition with BSW (or AfD), and others won't make the cut, on this poll it would leave CDU/CSU + SPD + Greens as the only possible coalition, which is unlikely to please anyone...
(To be fair, neither did Mrs Sandpit).
Shappsie and his "Hairy Hat" are making a speech.
At least, you can console yourself (in the light of the Grant Shapps conversation) that you still have hair.
I've been greying since my 20s. I'd actually say I prefer it now with rather more salt than pepper than 20 years ago when it just started getting salty. If only I can now hold on to what little is left (though again, I look at photos of me 20 years ago and a thick head of hair, and I never really carried it off particularly well even then.)
Guardian live blog
https://conservativehome.com/2024/01/14/a-leadership-challenge-the-games-afoot/
Interesting fact: hardcore alcoholics seldom go bald because all the booze reduces testosterone which is what causes hair loss
An interesting take on this poll from conservativehome
https://conservativehome.com/2024/01/14/a-leadership-challenge-the-games-afoot/
And this from Sky
https://news.sky.com/story/rebel-tories-not-expecting-to-secure-major-changes-to-rwanda-bill-13048549
I just registered to vote from overseas. Took 5 minutes. If it's May, will be the first election since 2010 that I have not hosted a chaotic drunken party, starting with shots at the BONG and ending with a bottle of whisky at 5am.
"The coldest Iowa caucuses in history arrive Monday night amid expectations that Republicans in the state will put former President Donald J. Trump on the march to a third G.O.P. presidential nomination.
The battle for second place, hard-fought between Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, will anoint Mr. Trump’s closest rival ahead of the New Hampshire primary election and beyond."
NY Times