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It seems difficult to see how the Tories win with the country feeling like this
It seems difficult to see how the Tories win with the country feeling like this – politicalbetting.com
Thinking about the condition of the UK, do you think things are currently better, worse, or about the same as they were in 2010?All BritonsBetter: 7%Same: 13%Worse: 75%2019 Con votersBetter: 9%Same: 19%Worse: 68%https://t.co/u7AeiQ3KSz https://t.co/aPLE3J3ZbD
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They're done.
Boris et al have delivered socialism.
Labour leads by 16% in our first poll of 2024.
Westminster Voting Intention (7 Jan.):
Labour 43% (+1)
Conservative 27% (+3)
Reform UK 11% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 10% (-1)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
Other 2% (–)
Changes +/- 17 Dec.
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1744403597545132475
Reminds me of a very much later stage in the lifetime of a beer...
The only growth surge under Osborne was the equivalent annualised rate of 4% that the economy was growing at, by the end of the first two quarters of 2010 when he took over (i.e. 2% over 6 months, that is 2010 Q1 GDP + 0.9%, Q2 +1.1%). Osborne's austerity managed to nip that nascent growth in the bud pretty quickly and never managed to beat Darling's growth legacy in any half year during his entire tenure.
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-us-swing-states-voting-intention-28-30-december-2023/
Trump is leading Biden in all six.
https://twitter.com/Rahll/status/1744234385891594380
Everyone feels flat and fed up.
But soon KEIR will be along to cheer everyone up 😈
Larry.
Seems like MP 101 to me, make with the galoshes and sandbags ASAP, look gravely at some blocked drains and write a concerned letter to the PM.
This is in a classic bellwether seat as well, so no wonder SKS has been gladhanding the locals. It's an open net.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0mBvCZOD4LM
Labour 43% (+1)
Conservative 27% (+3)
Reform UK 11% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 10% (-1)
Green 5% (-1)
Scottish National Party 3% (-1)
Other 2% (–)
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-7-january-2024/
I note a huge increase for SKS with Redfield Wilton.
Starmer leads Sunak by 15% as election year begins.
At this moment, which of the following do Britons think would be the better Prime Minister for the UK? (7 January)
Keir Starmer 45% (+6)
Rishi Sunak 30% (-2)
Changes +/- 17 December
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-7-january-2024
It is very hard to see how SKS will not be winning a large majority at this rate.
In off-topic news, it was snowing in SW London today which made my run feel quite "Christmasy", which was a weird feeling for January. I am currently on day 22 of 30, of running 5K every day for 30 days.
See you all soon
https://news.sky.com/story/jeffrey-epstein-court-documents-allege-sex-tapes-taken-of-prince-andrew-bill-clinton-and-sir-richard-branson-13044275
Wondered which way to put them, but I think the PM needs a certain ruthlessness, which Rickman had (the ability to portray). Bowie the sunny optimism needed in uncertain economic times - "Yes, the economy is fucked, but there's a star man, waiting in the sky, he'd like to come and meet us, but he thinks he'd blow our minds... Let all the children boogie." Good under pressure, too.
Osborne's tenure as Chancellor saw the worst extended spell of economic under-performance in the past 100 years.
It won't make me puke for at least four weeks yet
Looks even lovelier now
There are just some people who either take a pretty optimistic view about direction of travel, or who recall (not totally unreasonably) that 2010 wasn't that great with the credit crunch etc.
Can anyone tell us what the drop in economic performance was during Darling's tenure as Chancellor?
Slow posters like Wulfrun Phil forgets that austerity wasn't a choice, lest we forget this is what Labour were promising if they won the 2010 general election.
Alistair Darling: we will cut deeper than Margaret Thatcher
Thinktank warns of 'two parliaments of pain' with spending slashed by 25% to repair black hole in finances
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/mar/25/alistair-darling-cut-deeper-margaret-thatcher
Then-election director (fired several years later) decided to rely on then-available computer translation system of some kind.
With results that were (how do you say it in Chinese?) garbage.
So election dept did what they should have done in the first place: hired someone qualified who was bilingual in Chinese AND English to do translations, and vetted their work with others also qualified.
Not like there was or is a shortage of folks like that in Seattle!
I’m not asking for the moon on a stick. Someone free of child sex and bribery sleaze, no record of inciting insurrection, wants to retain the western alliance and no sign of being in pay of foreign adversaries, doesn’t sh*t his pants, has sufficient marbles to remember which of children are dead and alive, ideally born no earlier than the Beatles first #1.
Shouldnt be impossible in the social media age.
Where those Reform votes go come the election (if they exist) will be fascinating to watch.
Too right wing for centrists, not right wing enough for right wingers, too incompetent to satisfy those who just want competent government.
From: @viewcode
Good day to you both
I have emailed you via email a proposed article on political elites. It has had all the personal data removed. It is submitted to you on the condition that you do not breach my anonymity: please accept that or return it unpublished. I hope that you look kindly upon it.
Regards, @viewcode
Sadly, given the source I suspect the headline is somewhat misleading.
However, let's remember Epstein would have made Goebbels look honest.
A few years later I was house sharing with UK students learning Russian in Bradford when that year's group of 16 came over. It was interesting - they all came with food supplies in their luggage so they could reserve the money for consumer durables to take home.
Very knowledgeable about English literature from the 18/19C - perhaps from Russian authorities teaching Russians caricatures about the UK, and a rather clunky use of selected English idioms as is sometimes characteristic of Germans speaking English eg "I am in two minds".
Lots of comparisons of the Komsomol to the Scout Movement.
And it caused mild havoc when one of the Russian students converted to evangelical Christianity whilst in Bradford.
Variety - Golden Globes Host Jo Koy Confronts Bad Reviews, Admits Taylor Swift Joke Was ‘Weird’ and ‘Flat’: ‘I’d Be Lying’ If I Said Backlash ‘Doesn’t Hurt’
https://variety.com/2024/tv/news/jo-koy-addresses-golden-globes-monologue-taylor-swift-joke-1235864904/
And here we are
It will only accelerate from here
“Duolingo laying off most of their translators and having the rest review AI generated translations instead of writing them will be the end game for a lot of white collar work over the next few years.
From software development to marketing to law, it’s what business will pay for”
https://x.com/carnage4life/status/1744352646163820751?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
However, backed by voters still lip-smacking (if not eye-watering) over their Rishi Meal Deal.
Almost like businesses started to use cheap imported labour as a substitute for investment in productivity improvements.
Chart comes from https://twitter.com/RichardALJones/status/1698274898685083967
I guess learning caricatures must have explained a knowledge of Wordsworth and Austen etc.
Were these the first foreigners you met?
Is that the aroma of toast?
https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1744368550297452995?s=20
https://www.thenational.scot/news/24035866.support-monarchy-falls-50-per-cent-first-time/?ref=ebbn&nid=1457&u=f140ec39d500193051a33e140c12bd95&date=080124
(Interestingly, monarchism is now neck and neck in Scotland with republicanism.)
The DPP (CPS) has no right to intervene in *any* private prosecution. It *can* intervene to stop a case when requested or when the DPP is satisfied that the prosecution is malicious or vexatious cps.gov.uk/legal-guidance…. The attorney general can intervene in any prosecution they choose en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nolle_pro…
But keep on trying to pin the blame on an innocent party - in the same way the Post Office randomly picked on people.
Every poll has shown at most one third of Reform support would go back Conservative and that only if no Reform candidate were standing in their constituency.
Could the White Knight have done more???
Not as straightforward as John makes out - the CPS has the power to take over or end private prosecutions for example that are vexatious or malicious - the Post Office was prosecuting hundreds of people, what interest did the CPS take in it & what if any review did they conduct?
https://x.com/rupertmyers/status/1744323989743226885?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Further, Seema Misra was prosecuted on behalf of the Post Office by the CPS when Keir Starmer was DPP.
Misra, recalling the moment she was sentenced to 15 months in prison in 2010, said, "It's hard to say but I think that if I had not been pregnant, I would have killed myself."
https://x.com/rupertmyers/status/1744324717610258471?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
So not only was Keir Starmer's CPS aware of the Post Office prosecutions, it helped send a pregnant woman to jail:
https://x.com/rupertmyers/status/1744325100147446098?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
In short I think @Nigel_Farage has a point.
https://x.com/rupertmyers/status/1744329361958793453?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
The problem being, what each group likes about them comes across as weakness, arrogance, ineptness, privilege, and aloofness to others.
Politically there are similarities too. Miliband suffered because he wasn't right-wing enough for those who'd deserted New Labour to the right, but not left-wing enough for the malcontent activist part of the left that wanted (and would get) an unencumbered vessel for their anger.
Similarly, Sunak's right-wing core beliefs mean he's never going to win back the liberal voters who have drifted away from the party since (but not wholly because of) Brexit. But also doesn't have the blood and thunder tone the 'own the libs', populist anti-establishment section of the electorate that's fed up of the Tories too, want either.
Just binge watched Fool Me Once. Really good, kept me guessing to the end.
They ought rather to concentrate on explaining why they didn't sort out the whole affair half a decade back. And now sort it sharpish.
The problem would be that most of the people who would have a chance of pulling it off would be afraid of burning their bridges with the establishment, especially the Democrats. In France it was different because the party system has historically been much more volatile and the Socialists were clearly on the way out.
Back in the real world and life returns to what passes for normal with the first R&W poll of the New Year and something for almost everyone.
Labour retains a comfortable advantage and the Conservatives have recovered from their pre-Christmas slump. The gap remains 16 points and the pool of Don't Knows is only 10% both overall and of the Conservative 2019 cohort which now splits 54% Conservative, 15% Labour, 15% Reform, 10% Don't Know based on likelihood to vote (among all voters the DKs are a bit higher as you would expect).
The Conservatives have basically lost 30% of their 2019 vote split equally between Labour and Reform with a further 10% between the LDs and Don't Knows so the Conservatives are roughly retaining 60% of their 2019 number. The LDs have lost roughly 30% of their 2019 vote to Labour.
We are also to believe half the 2019 Green vote has gone to the Conservatives - one bucket of salt please.
"Russian students" was the parlance for both sides - I think perhaps because of the name of the language, and the name of the course.
"UK" is a country, of course - the "United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland".
I doubt either is likely to be true of Sunak.
You haven't added the the dont knows to HYUFD's favoured position, have you?