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How many CON Mps will join these 52 before the election? – politicalbetting.com
How many CON Mps will join these 52 before the election? – politicalbetting.com
Hardly a week goes by at the moment without news of more CON MPs announcing that they don’t plan to defend their seats at the general election.
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I suspect it could be true when the MP is new, full of enthusiasm and happy to talk about the government's achievements.
But in the present Parliament, there are no positive Government achievements to be wheeled out to the grateful populace, so everything must be highly depressing for the Tory MPs, be they first time incumbents or old stagers.
No wonder they are all packing up. After all, they were the ones who made it all happen in the first place.
It probably doesn't help much if 25% of voters change their vote and are now voting for the opposition party.
Otherwise....
No, no not Jamie. Good riddance to him/her.
And now he departs the stage, bitter that he did not make the mark he could have.
WHY??????????
AND does this mean that this "election" has been rigged, by some conspiracy of the PB Powers That Be?
J'accuse!!!!!!!!
To underline the absurdity of this rank injustice, based on unreliable reports received via my custom-built tin-foil helmet, can reveal that 99.46% of my prognostications are destined to be fulfilled!
Response(?) by BenPointer (previous thread) - Yeah, sorry about that - I'm afraid I had to disqualify your entry on account of it being totally pants bringing the noble art of PB Prediction into disrepute.
Rejoinder - WTF?????? Who made YOU the Judge Dread of PB?!?!?
I hereby appeal to the PB Community-At-Large-or-Small in the name of Natural Justice to overturn this gross abuse of power by the power-mad BP!!!!!!!!!!
The type of MP who probably won't is the likes of this poor redwall Conservative MP mentioned in Dorries' book first elected in 2019.
'...He stared into his mug of cold tea when I struggled to answer. 'I'm totally and utterly fucked', he said, more to himself as a statement of fact than a comment inviting discussion. 'That's it for me.' He looked close to tears. I knew that he had bought a new house for the family the summer following his election in December 2019. The salary he earnt before he became an MP was less than half of what he was earning now.'
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Plot-Political-Assassination-Boris-Johnson/dp/0008623422/ref=sr_1_1?qid=1704557243&refinements=p_27:Nadine+Dorries&s=books&sr=1-1&asin=B0CBLTVL5C&revisionId=cc120981&format=1&depth=1
Plus banning Trump from ever doing business in New York.
Handle it poorly as previous Labour governments did and the swingback to the Tories would be much more rapid. Remember after landslide defeat in 1945 the Tories were back in government in 1951, after losing power in 1964 they were back in power in 1970 ie within 10 years. Thatcher of course took the party back to government in 1979, just 5 years after Heath had lost the 1974 general elections to Wilson's Labour
Which says it all about today's Tory Party.
The Party needs some time in Opposition to get its stuff together and rejuvenate and come back in a generation with some fresh ideas.
“I don’t recall wishing that one day I would be a princess,” Princess Mary told reporters. “I wanted to be a veterinarian.”
It was a classic Australian love story, set in a Sydney pub: Girl meets boy. Girl marries boy. Girl lives happily ever after.
But when Mary Donaldson, then a 28-year-old from Tasmania working in real estate, met “Fred” — also known as Frederik, Crown Prince of Denmark — at the Slip Inn in September 2000, she was suddenly plunged into an entirely different fairy tale.
“The first time that we met or shook hands, I did not know he was the crown prince of Denmark,” Mary said in a 2003 interview. “It was perhaps half an hour or so later that someone came up to me and said, ‘Do you know who these people are?’”
This month, more than 23 years later, Mary — now Crown Princess Mary, aged 51 — will become Denmark’s next queen, after Queen Margrethe II announced her abdication in her New Year’s Day speech. Mary’s husband will become King Frederik X.
She has become internationally acclaimed among royal watchers for her distinctive sense of personal style and her outspoken commitment to progressive causes, including climate change advocacy and sustainability, as well as the rights of women and children.
In Denmark, she is adored. And in her native Australia, the unlikely story of their Tasmanian princess has for decades prompted frothy headlines and extensive coverage of their homegrown member of the Danish royal family and her much-vaunted wardrobe.
In fact, Mary has long since renounced her Australian (and British, via her Scottish parents) citizenship. She retains only the slightest trace of her original accent and speaks fluent Danish. But in Australia, she is celebrated as a local treasure. . . .
The British press’s effort to recast her as “Mary, Queen of Scots,” citing her Scottish roots, has prompted scathing commentary in Australia. “Not content with their own royal family,” The Melbourne Age newspaper said this week, “British newspapers are trying to claim Denmark’s next queen, Crown Princess Mary, as one of their own.” . . .
SSI - Could Brit efforts to appropriate soon-to-be Queen Mary, in feeble attempt to add luster (or remove tarnish) from "Our Island Story" (meaning Britain NOT Tasmania) be as harmful to Anglo-Australian relations, as say
> England's gross unsportsmenship re: Bodyline Scandal
> Britain's gross incompetence re: Imperial "bastion" of Singapore
> Churchill's less-than-noble sacrifice of ANZACs in Greece, Crete, Malaya, etc., etc.
> WSC's nonchalance re: highly-possible Japanese invasion & subsequent conquest of Australia.
Just sayin'
Pub Landlord and sub-Postmaster roles are no longer an option.
To be fair, they may all be uniformly useless, and completely unfitted for the role, but that doesn't seem to have hindered their male counterparts.
However I don't have a violin tiny enough for any sympathy for them, they've reaped the benefits of being overpaid for years and if they lose its because they collectively have not done a good job.
MPs should be paid much closer to the median salary, not something like the 98th percentile which it is currently.
Worth saying that while Durham University does a lot of local outreach work to get people into University none of the local students twin A knows like it there.
Should add I know this as twin A is a member of a number of clubs that are national organisations who just placed the person working in Durham doing a Degree Apprenticeship as a Durham student and the 3 clubs she's a member of like people who turn up to help and have a car...
Edit to add - the latest disaster for poorer students in Durham is that rents next year will be at least £1000 more than the loan given if you can borrow the full amount - and no local business employs students because it's become far more gown versus town than it was a few years back.
Politico.com - NRA CEO Wayne LaPierre steps down amid corruption charges
Andrew Arulanandam, previously the organization’s head of general operations, will take over for LaPierre as interim CEO and executive vice president.
National Rifle Association Vice President and CEO Wayne LaPierre resigned from the organization Friday, just three days before the embattled leader is set to face a corruption trial in New York.
“With pride in all that we have accomplished, I am announcing my resignation from the NRA,” LaPierre said. “I’ve been a card-carrying member of this organization for most of my adult life, and I will never stop supporting the NRA and its fight to defend Second Amendment freedom. My passion for our cause burns as deeply as ever.”
Although the 74-year-old LaPierre cited health concerns as the reason for his resignation, the gun organization’s release addressed the fact that LaPierre is “an individual defendant” in New York Attorney General Tish James’ corruption case.
“With respect to the NYAG’s allegations, the NRA Board of Directors reports it has undertaken significant efforts to perform a self-evaluation, recommended termination of disgraced ‘insiders’ and vendors who allegedly abused the Association, and accepted reimbursement, with interest, for alleged excess benefit transactions from LaPierre, as reported in public tax filings.”
The trial, which is set to start Monday, grew out of a civil suit James initially filed in 2020 alleging that LaPierre and other NRA leaders improperly used funds for personal gain, along with a host of other incidents of financial wrongdoing and mismanagement. James’ effort aims in part to hobble the organization by ousting leaders like LaPierre. . . .
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/05/nra-vice-president-steps-down-amid-corruption-charges-00134094
In 2015 when I stood again, I'd lost the daily contact of incumbency and the effect largely wore off - I lost that one by 8%, although the national result was again a Tory lead of 6.5%.
You can see it in polling where the Tories figures among those of working age are pitiful (and that includes those in the past who'd be moving to vote solidly Tory). It may be in a doom loop whereby its route to recovery is blocked by the fact it's increasingly reliant on the wealthy old, so can't propose growth-friendly policies that irk them. But without doing so cater to a base with diminishing returns and further cement their reputation as the party of economic decline.
What we may witness is something like 1979, a generational sea change whereby for a lot of people of a certain generation, Labour gained a reputation for economic mismanagement and supporting a broken model it arguably hasn't shaken off with those of that age. With the one era of success coming when Blair and Brown made clear the party had moved away from that.
The next successful Tory leader may well have to prove that similarly, they're not wedded to the right of the party's failed approach, and their ostensibly liberal wing's weakness in appeasing them.
However, when I was last there, you need a bank loan to afford what B&Bs in the town were charging . . . . so I drove on and found someplace to lay my weary head that was better AND cheaper.
Can certainly see how tough it must be for struggling students versus the well-heeled.
Plenty of black tie dinners and formal occasions in all those careers. About 2/3 of Oxbridge students are now state educated but that doesn't stop it still doing what it can with formal dinners, the Oxford Union etc to offer opportunities and the confidence needed to do well in the top jobs socially as well as academically
AP (via Seattle Times) - Alaska Airlines 737 lands safely after a window blows out 3 miles over Oregon
An Alaska Airlines jetliner blew out a window and a portion of its fuselage shortly after takeoff three miles above Oregon, creating a gaping hole that sucked clothing off a child and forced the pilots to make an emergency landing as its 174 passengers and six crew members donned oxygen masks.
No one was seriously hurt as the depressurized plane returned safely Friday night to Portland International Airport about 20 minutes after it had departed, but the airline grounded its 65 Boeing 737-9 Max aircraft until they can be inspected. The National Transportation Safety Board said Saturday it will also investigate.
Passenger Evan Smith said a boy and his mother were sitting in the row where the window blew out and the child’s shirt was sucked off him and out of the plane. . . .
Alaska Airlines CEO Ben Minicucci said the inspection of the company 737-9 fleet aircraft could take days to complete. They make up a fifth of the company’s 314 planes. It wasn’t immediately known Saturday how that would affect the company’s flight schedule. . . .
Flight 1282 had taken off from Portland at 5:07 p.m. Friday for a two-hour flight to Ontario, California. About six minutes later, the window and a chunk of the fuselage blew out as the plane was at about 16,000 feet (4.8 kilometers). . . .
Videos posted by passengers online showed a gaping hole where the window had been and passengers wearing their masks. . . .
The aircraft involved rolled off the assembly line and received its certification just two months ago, according to online FAA records. The plane had been on 145 flights since entering commercial service on Nov. 11, said FlightRadar24, another tracking service. The flight from Portland was the aircraft’s third of the day.
Last year, the FAA told pilots to limit use of an anti-ice system on the Max in dry conditions because of concern that inlets around the engines could overheat and break away, possibly striking the plane.
Max deliveries have been interrupted at times to fix manufacturing flaws. The company told airlines in December to inspect the planes for a possible loose bolt in the rudder-control system.
If economy is poor and frequent strikes and high inflation under a Starmer government even a rightwinger as Tory leader could wing much as the supposedly 'unelectable' Thatcher won as a rightwinger against the 1979 Labour government after only 5 years of the Tories in opposition
If you want the top 1% intellect and career wise to consider a political career however MPs are significantly underpaid. They aren't going to take a pay cut and considerable media and social media intrusion just for the outside chance of a Cabinet post and more likely spending much of the time on the backbenches.
So we will get more of the MPs we deserve, increasingly party hacks and ex councillors or parliamentary researchers
I'm comfortably off and healthy. I'd hate to be struggling to make ends meet and have poor health in this country now.
I keep banging on about the flooding, but it's genuinely a disaster for my area, and I think the sitting MPs around here will suffer at the ballot box.
Seattle Times ($) - Boeing wants FAA to exempt MAX 7 from safety rules to get it in the air
By Dominic Gates, Seattle Times aerospace reporter
Little noticed, the Federal Aviation Administration in December published a Boeing request for an exemption from key safety standards on the 737 MAX 7 — the still-uncertified smallest member of Boeing’s newest jet family.
Since August, earlier models of the MAX currently flying passengers in the U.S. have had to limit use of the jet’s engine anti-ice system after Boeing discovered a defect in the system with potentially catastrophic consequences.
The flaw could cause the inlet at the front end of the pod surrounding the engine — known as a nacelle — to break and fall off.
In an August Airworthiness Directive, the FAA stated that debris from such a breakup could penetrate the fuselage, putting passengers seated at windows behind the wings in danger, and could damage the wing or tail of the plane, “which could result in loss of control of the airplane.”
Dennis Tajer, a spokesperson for the Allied Pilots Association, the union representing 15,000 American Airlines pilots, said the flaw in the engine anti-ice system has “given us great concern.”
He said the pilot procedure the FAA approved as an interim solution — urging pilots to make sure to turn off the system when icing conditions dissipate to avoid overheating that within five minutes could seriously damage the structure of the nacelle — is inadequate given the serious potential danger. . . .
Bart however seems to want to pay MPs only about £35-40k, which is less than even some senior county or London borough councillors get paid
Strange just how many politicos are too dumb & or lazy to do just that?
And NOT just in UK. Remember the "example" set by US Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Cancun)?
Do we have this data on a map?
That compares with 88 from 352 in toto in the HoC, which is 25%.
So they are .. so far .. staying on as candidates.
(Aside: I see that the blackballed Conservatives who are now 'independents' are all men. What about the sex of the ones who have already lost byelection?)
And if you think the current lot are bad - I expect the next crop of Labour MPs to have far more than its fair share of moon-howlers.
Completely ridiculous but really well done. Excellent escapism so far (I’m on ep 3)
Jesus. I rest my case.
For aome reason the plane hasn’t be allocated…
It is desirable that Cabinet Ministers be smart and good. This can be achieved by bringing in external talent (see GOATs[1]). But I think it's counterproductive that MPs be the best of the best. If a policy can't be explained or supported by people of average intelligence, then is it really a good idea?
[1] https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmpubadm/330/330.pdf
But then again, one has only to look at the antics of our multi-billionaire-class prime minister.
I’d guess incumbency is also relatively more important in “close-knit” communities with some sense of constituency identity, and far less important in either inner urban seats with itinerant populations, or mixed seats that contain very different social groups.
Partners, headmasters etc are at the top of their career - the PM as head politician should be paid comparable to them.
Entry level backbenchers as junior politicians should be paid comparable to newly qualified teachers, junior doctors etc.
The fact Councillors are grossly overpaid doesn't mean that we should pay MPs more either, it means we should pay Councillors less too.
These problems are munch longer in the tooth than just 5 or 10 years.
To say that they have failed to fix the problem that has happened on their watch is 100% accurate
To blame them entirely for ruining the country allows too many guilty to go uncriticised
(I would push it back to Blair and his lack of courage plus Brown pushing current spending while signing crap PFI deals for which PFI was never suitable)
Similarly, doubt Starmer's govt will have its issues, but even after a mediocre four or five years the Tories may face an uphill battle because they're simply toxic, like really toxic, to generations whose votes will only grow in importance.
And there's probably an underestimation of quite how toxic they are. I know people who in terms of income level and general "meh" attitude to politics should be Tory voters. They regard the party with a contempt usually reserved for those residing in high-security medical facilities, having spent the past decade making decisions that have made lives more difficult or just been insulting.
It's going to take a lot for the Tories to reverse that, in a way that's rather different I think to those conducive to a changing of perceptions or a quick return. Especially given they seem completely unwilling or unable to realise the depth of their predicament with those who aren't retired or getting there.
If you're under 50, you're roughly as likely to believe the moon landings are faked as plan to vote Tory. That's not a party with a bright future, unless it can address the reasons why and change. Clue: It's part economics, part their flagship political project being catastrophically unpopular in a way few policies ever are.
Mind you there were some absolute stinkers during the Blair years. I really, really despised the sycophant Jeff Hoon. Unfortunately this Parliament produced dozens and dozens of Jeff Hoons.
I couldn't bear Dobbo and Clarke either
Do you not see what a nonsense it is to try to define the "top 1%" purely in terms of money?
Has anyone else watched any 1670? Was it made as a drama documentary?
Apart from Slow Horses, what else is actually good at the moment?
My own experiences flying with Alaska have been positive, albeit NOT as thrilling as the flight chronicled in press report.
Personally reckon Boeing is still suffering from the prop-wash of the beancounters who damn near drove the Lazy B (pet name in Seattle) into the ground, along with a few aircraft.
BTW, in Puget Sound region, many old-oldtimers still refer to "Boeing's" the way most of us (oldtime or not) call our flagship retailer "Nordstrom's".
And for same reason - both companies named for the surname of their founder.
Its the economy housing, stupid.
Granted that does mean you can go back to Brown and say he spent too much but it's the decisions made when spending was cut that have really come back to bite us in the past few years...
But you're right, there's plenty of well paid people who are not wealthy as such (e.g. no significant family wealth, big mortgage) that are never going to accept a significant pay cut to be an MP. I'm sure plenty would be good MPs, but then I'm sure there's plenty of other people with the potential who aren't in lucrative careers (or have family wealth such that they can afford to slum it, relatively speaking). It's just a matter of finding them that seems to be a struggle right now.
I’m enjoying Blacklist although it’s a little silly. James Spader is a great actor though.
Geoff "the complete" Hoon.
How the worm has turned! Indeed, the World Turned Upside Down.
Though do think that Stephen Fry makes a damn good quiz-master.
BUT does NOT absolve yez from inventing "The Apprentice" as part of sinister trans-Atlantic plot to make Donald Trump POTUS!!!
Osborne should have gone for reform but went for penny-pinching instead. Some of the stuff he did was good (like Vickers) but so much was shortsighted Brownian politicking rather than government.
However on balance the top 1% talent wise are mostly found in the top 1% income wise and we want more of them to consider entering politics and becoming Cabinet Ministers
1. The smallest Labour lead 10%
2. Date of election 3 October
3. Party Leaders as now (BORING)
4. Labour 136 Majority
5. Haley and Biden
6. Biden (are you sure?)
7. Base rate 4.0%
8. CPI 2.9%
9. Borrowing £96 billion
10. Medals 57
Remember in 2019 the median age more voters voted Conservative than Labour was 39 not 59 and most Conservative voters were voting to get Brexit done as most of them had voted for it!
No serving sailors are suitable to replace Rear-Admiral Simon Asquith, the current Director of Submarines, and the Navy has turned to the professional networking site to find his successor.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/navy-advertises-on-linkedin-to-hire-nuclear-rear-admiral/ar-AA1mwI4U
You couldn't make it up."
Seriously?
Well now: I can drive to Barrow in 30 minutes, know quite a few people working in BaE and am not going to sexually harass anyone. So .....
What do you mean, I have no relevant knowledge or experience and get seasick. This is Britain in 2024. Since when have such things mattered at all?
Also my son is a nuclear graduate so he can tell me about any techie stuff.
I'd rather not be a Rear-Admiral, though. A Dame Admiral sounds much more fun.
Also the opportunity to boss a few of the Dura Ace's of the future is too delicious to resist.
Glad I've got a few £ on her if the PB hive mind is correct.
I remember the time when they were not paid but gave their services to the community entirely voluntarily and they were far better than most councillors elected today
Monetary concerns are probably far down the line of concerns.
In the US of course the Cabinet is separate from the legislature, they appoint from the best in their field for each role
Moggs. At least Johnson couldn't have
afforded to live on a tutelage wage.
Trouble is you have to wade through a ton of slow exposition in Season 1 to get to the good stuff in Season 2, I don’t blame people for bailing out
But I do strongly recommend Legacy of Monsters if all you want is Jurassic Park style entertainment, with a dash of Japanese flair
Interesting
The exception that stands out is, of course, Chris Grayling, who will be a huge loss. His achievements are too short to list, and I reckon his departure will be deeply damaging to voters' views of the Tory Party.
Although we did invent television, no matter what Americans are taught in school.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Apprentice
OK, so it's not now a first order issue - we left, people think it was the wrong decision. But you can't unscramble an egg. That doesn't mean it's not a problem for perceptions of the Tories. Both directly and in terms of overall narrative. It's going to be very difficult for any party whose biggest 'achievement' is viewed as a complete failure to win over people who think that.
Plus, it feeds the idea that other failings are down to Tory incompetence/malevolence rather than misfortune. There's a narrative that's started to stick, that Brexit fits in very well with, that the Tories are the party of the selfish old who harmed their children's future to please themselves.
It's all the things combined together. Of course housing and the economy are the biggest factors. But if it was just that the Tories wouldn't be in the hole they are in with the Under 50s. If it were just Brexit they wouldn't either. Nor would some of the dafter culture war stuff do much damage on its own. But all taken together you have a party that's found a way to alienate most of working age Britain.
Set aside Brexit and one thing that Thatcher, Cameron, Osborne, Johnson and Gove all had in common is they all wanted to get more on the housing ladder, they understood that it is only because of people being able to move on in life that people become more Tory as they age, its not a simple automatic fact of ageing that happens.
Unfortunately Johnson's moderate housing reforms were defeated by the likes of May, cheered on by the likes of you, and then Sunak has torn up any measures to see more housing built to alleviate the crisis that is causing those in their 20s and 30s to have to rent.
As a result you and they deserve to be nowhere near office, and do not deserve to be elected.
Conservativism should be about ensuring as many people as possible can support themselves, paying for their own home, out of their own wages.
Unfortunately its been taken over by a cargo cult who believe that other people paying for their homes, out of their wages, is a better way to live.
Until the Conservatives return back to solid Conservative principles, they deserve to be in Opposition.