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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The leaders’ TV debates: Corporeal looks at the rules
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The leaders’ TV debates: Corporeal looks at the rules
To start with the relatively easy bit: any debates taking place within the election period would be subject to OFCOM’s broadcasting code. Well mostly. In the interests of full accuracy this part of the code (primarily section 6) “does not apply to BBC services funded by the licence fee, which are regulated on these matters by the BBC trust”.
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I agree with that. The thing that Farage would most liked would be to be excluded.
Given he's a rubbish debater who loses his temper very easily they should have him there.
I personally cannot see a repeat of the 2010 debates as it`s now 2 governing parties against 1 and one of them is having very poor numbers too.Someone suggested one Cam vs Miliband,two Cam vs Miliband vs Clegg and three Cam vs Miliband vs Clegg vs Farage.That seems fairer and more reflective of where things stand at the moment.
It doesn't mean that no polling level would get UKIP in.
If he's not there then for the whole campaign UKIP is going to get almost zero publicity - and if that happens UKIP is guaranteed to suffer in the final outcome.
So same as last time I reckon, but it will take a public empty chair threat to get Cameron toturn up.
Because of that I'd be skeptical of any legal challenge being mounted.
All the parties want themselves there, and as few others as possible. The spotlight is valuable.
If they go to the High Court in March 2015 then it'll be too late because even if they win it'll get appealed and there will then just be a row / chaos and the debates won't happen at all.
If UKIP is going to get in it needs to be crystal clear that they are allowed in well, well in advance.
Ultimately, what we have here is a belief that new parties should not be allowed an equal voice with parties they are above in the polls, just because they're new. This is a de facto political bias in favour of establishment views and in favour of institutional conservatism. The whole value of a free media is that it gives space to views that stand up to orthodoxy, not do deny them oxygen until they're a fixed part of the political establishment.
Must have lost something in translation.
The consultation I linked to is for the 2014 May elections, and was published in October 2013. I'd assume a similar timetable for the 2015 General election means UKIP's first stage would be to engage with that consultation (I can't see how they could make a challenge before that) and then challenge afterwards if unhappy.
There was an earlier more general consultation in March 2013, which shows a range of views to say the least. Some broadcasters opposing having a list of major parties at all etc. In the list of respondents UKIP don't appear.
http://stakeholders.ofcom.org.uk/binaries/consultations/ppbs/statement/statement.pdf
I don't know if they have responded to the recent consultation, but if they haven't they need to.
Polls are based on GBs shares not UK ones. The GB totals for comparison are CON 37, LAB 29.7, LD 23.6
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010
Remarkable events in Ukraine today - it remains to be seen whether despite all the talk of unity, the de facto division of Ukraine is already under way. I was listening to analysis on LBC this morning - it is far more complex than often portrayed. The Opposition aren't all angels and the pro-Russian groupings aren't all the bad guys. What has happened has been the overthrow of a venal leader in Yanukovych but some of those involved are arguably as distasteful given open anti-Semitism and neo-fascism.
Areas like the Crimea (never historically part of the Ukraine) retain through settlement strong ties to Russia and that has to be respected and accepted by whatever new power emerges in Kiev.
On-topic, I'm not too concerned about Nigel Farage or UKIP joining the debate. There's no point trying to derive a consistent approach because someone will always complain. It may seem semantic but it's important to note the debates are about the election not about being Prime Minister. There are realistically only two possible Prime Ministers but the election has a plethora of competing parties and while I vaguely recall a limit on the number of candidates to trigger an election broadcast, the parties contesting all the seats seem the logical choice for inclusion (with some kind of secondary qualification on polling or representation to prevent a wealthy man putting up candidates to get a chair).
http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/12/09/this-one-map-helps-explain-ukraines-protests/
As I recall, Southern Ukraine was only taken from the Ottomans and Tartars in the 18th century, and large land grants were made to Russians who often brought their serfs with them from other regions of the Russian Empire.
It does also sound as if a number of the protesters are from far right groupings.
As a political lever though its deadly. Its got the highest associations with the old Russia and Soviet Union in its populous. For many its still old Soviet sovereign territory.
On the surface its ditto for Kharkiv and the associated administrative region it sits at the centre of in terms of the potential level of trouble. Certainly there have been rumours that's where those associated with the President were going to kick off the political resistance against the whirlwind happening in the west.
It would rate differently that the Crimea though. It has a strong Ukrainian identity group within its population that wouldn't easily get suppressed. Geographically Russia could prop it up ok, the region has got economic strength. Russia doesn't have boots there so its likely to be a support for any separation with the absence of the political threat that physical force can bring. If they went down that line it would be something much more serious indeed. I doubt the Ukraine would accept even if some in the West would.
That Russia will do nothing at all here I think is unlikely, its not in Putin's DNA. The question is what, dramatic direct action or dig-in politically and economically to support surrogates whilst attempting to punish Ukraine with the same measures. I think Russia's real abilities to roll the tanks in and sustain it (which is what the rumours always seem to talk about) are limited and its down to whether the Ukrainians and West acquiesce or take him on.
It is imperative that the new regime and the people who support it ensure that chaos and dis-organisation does not continue. Into such chaos Russia and its surrogates can take advantage with greater ease.
As we've seen in Ulster, Lebanon and elsewhere, having one ethnic or religious group dominate to the exclusion of a significant minority doesn't usually end well.
However, if we're making comparisons with ICM, YouGov's penultimate poll should be used, because they used the same fieldwork dates. In terms of the Con lead, ICM (8%) were more accurate than YouGov (5%). But if we measure accuracy of polls based on the cumulative difference for the three main parties, then YouGov shaded it over ICM.
Though anyone who has played Diplomacy knows the importance of controlling Galicia!
:-)
I've come to the opinion that it would be great to see ukip polling in the mid to high teens and excluded from the debates... It would make the old dinosaur parties seem like traffic wardens! and even more unpopular than they are now
Rule is rules!
"We made the same mistakes again" this time, said the Kremlin adviser, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "For us, the conclusion is that the West succeeded in engineering a coup d'état."
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304275304579399320362286500?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304275304579399320362286500.html
"The Coalition Government, after all, is not the British nation, and the British nation will certainly see you righted. Your interests lie with Great Britain. You have helped her, and you have helped her Empire, and her Empire belongs just as much to you as it does to England. Stick to it, and trust the British people”
"What a fool I was! I was only a puppet, and so was Ulster, and so was Ireland, in the political game that was to get the Conservative Party into Power."
Is TSE still spanking the bookies and if so, is he on the canaries for tomorrow?
Mail on Sunday front page - "Hard at work: Red Ed's floods supremo"
twitter.com/suttonnick/status/437346375936659456/photo/1
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/93402/the_mail_on_sunday_saturday_22nd_february_2014.html
Kickoff's in Crimea earlier
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/02/22/the-battle-for-kiev-may-well-be-over-but-is-the-battle-for-crimea-about-to-begin/?tid=hpModule_04941f10-8a79-11e2-98d9-3012c1cd8d1e
The last 1/4 did not fit that well with everything up to that point but was quite thought provoking in parts. My son loved all the gentle digs at the Matrix and Star wars.
The mindless pop song used to brain wash people was incredibly catchy and we have both been caught humming it this evening.
Well worth a watch but a masterpiece is overstating it.
Nighty night. We love you really Sean. And you are right, the Lego movie is interesting.
Let's put the bar at 20%
That would keep the status quo', but. LD would be struggling
PUT THE BAR AT 15% and ukip would poss make it in
Would make sense to me if it were a head to head with two big parties really
Will have to see the movie, but even if I do come out thinking it's a tad Randian, if it's as good as you suggest it'll have the nuance to allow me to enjoy it without worrying about it, all good films have an element of propaganda about them as they have to get you to care about something. You'll always find people on both sides willing to try and cast themselves as profound cultural critics for whom the scales have dropped away from their eyes.
The one utterly moronic comment is 'Urrgh it's from a big corporation just to sell toys'. What do people think Disney is, a small bay area arts collective? Unless you only let your kids watch arthouse movies chances are you've been to and enjoyed a film in which a major part of the creative process was someone somewhere working out how to make as much money from it as possible.
Protesters and opposition leaders speculated that Russia may be looking for a pretext to intervene militarily on behalf of ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine.
The arrival of a Russian delegation, led by Alexey Pushkov, a representative on the Russian State Duma’s Committee on International Affairs, at a meeting in Kharkiv on Saturday of deputies from south-western Ukraine and Crimea, did little to quell fears of Russian intervention.
https://www.kyivpost.com/content/russia-and-former-soviet-union/russian-foreign-minister-blames-opposition-for-deterioration-in-kyiv-337391.html
Panelbase joins the other two in showing the gap still narrowing while ICM shows it widening from it's last poll. (The ICM also has new methodological changes since it's last poll according to Curtice)
Panelbase
Yes 37% (n/c)
No 47% (-2)
With undecideds excluded
Yes 44% (+1)
No 56% (-1)
ICM
Yes 37% (n/c)
No 49% (+5)
With undecideds excluded
Yes 43% (-3)
No 57% (+3)
The ICM should ensure another week of shrieking from the PB right-wingers on every PB thread and a continuation of SLAB's 2011 negativity strategy.