Note, the Scottish Football team have NOT qualified for a major football tournament since the Scottish Parliament opened.
Just saying.
And I thought Scottish rugby had a recent bad record .... but heck I'm sure our footballers have won the odd match since the Scottish Parliament opened in around AD1225 ?!?
Huh? You are missing out about 250 years of the parliament's history. In 978 Kenneth II held at least one parliament at Lanark Castle.
Quite so ....
Did we beat the Romans that year in the the Six Nations ?
Trying for the life of me to get a bet on Wales with Victor - their mobile site is almost as dreadful as Laddys. It's by no means clear to me that the 12/1 includes via the play off. It says "top two finish", which strongly suggests not...
With Skybet it is to qualify
To Qualify as per their website and app
SkyBet is 7/4...
Yeah but BetVictor closed my account.
Not to worry – the BetVictor price is top two finish only – definitely. I double checked it. I've not taken the 7/4 from SkyBet as I think it's only marginal value. 12/1 would have been a monster bet!
This is still a good bet
Luis Suarez to outscore the England World Cup Team 7/2
Suarez doesn't score goals anymore. All changed since Daniel came back into the team. If only Liverpool could get all their defenders fit they might challenge for the title. Man City and Chelsea still to play at home.
Trying for the life of me to get a bet on Wales with Victor - their mobile site is almost as dreadful as Laddys. It's by no means clear to me that the 12/1 includes via the play off. It says "top two finish", which strongly suggests not...
With Skybet it is to qualify
To Qualify as per their website and app
SkyBet is 7/4...
Yeah but BetVictor closed my account.
Not to worry – the BetVictor price is top two finish only – definitely. I double checked it. I've not taken the 7/4 from SkyBet as I think it's only marginal value. 12/1 would have been a monster bet!
This is still a good bet
Luis Suarez to outscore the England World Cup Team 7/2
Suarez is a flat track bully, he hasn't scored against the top three or Utd this season, he hasn't scored for six games despite Liverpool rattling them in for fun.
For sure he'll score against Costa Rica but so will England, his record against decent teams is woeful and while this bet may win I most definitely would not consider it a decent bet.
Last few games he's been playing out on the wing.
He's had something like 10 assists in the last month
Yet another CALAMITOUS result after playing a Europa League game just before it...
Same old, same old.
Look on the bright side, next weekend you play on Sunday after a Europa League game AND THE ENGLAND CRICKET TEAM ARE PLAYING ON THE SAME DAY!
Oh.
Home to Cardiff, who lost 4-0 at home to Hull - you think Spurs could possibly muck that up? We don't even need those other omens to do that...
Spurs Season Endings - domestically 23/2/2014, in europe 27/2/2014.
The only cause for hope?
Lord Sugar@Lord_Sugar·1h With prospect of playing Chelsea ,Arsenal and Liverpool in next few games. Some might say with the loss at Norwich. Spurs season is over
I backed Norwich to win today and Emmanuel as FGS.
Cardiff don't tempt me, even at 19/2 to win at the Lane.
Nailed on Spurs win next weekend.
(And I'm going to back you to win on Thursday)
You have an amazing knack of having winning bets after the event!
Not really, I tip a lot of my bets beforehand on here.
I've been busy this weekend, or would have posted them on here.
As Scrapheap can attest, a lot of my winning bets this year have involved Spurs matches.
If you tip them on here here before hand that's fair enough and I have seen a good few of them, but posting after the event is not good. I have a 20/1 in play at the moment that I wouldn't dream of gloating about on here if it wins.
Yet another CALAMITOUS result after playing a Europa League game just before it...
Same old, same old.
Look on the bright side, next weekend you play on Sunday after a Europa League game AND THE ENGLAND CRICKET TEAM ARE PLAYING ON THE SAME DAY!
Oh.
Home to Cardiff, who lost 4-0 at home to Hull - you think Spurs could possibly muck that up? We don't even need those other omens to do that...
Spurs Season Endings - domestically 23/2/2014, in europe 27/2/2014.
The only cause for hope?
Lord Sugar@Lord_Sugar·1h With prospect of playing Chelsea ,Arsenal and Liverpool in next few games. Some might say with the loss at Norwich. Spurs season is over
I backed Norwich to win today and Emmanuel as FGS.
Cardiff don't tempt me, even at 19/2 to win at the Lane.
Nailed on Spurs win next weekend.
(And I'm going to back you to win on Thursday)
You have an amazing knack of having winning bets after the event!
Not really, I tip a lot of my bets beforehand on here.
I've been busy this weekend, or would have posted them on here.
As Scrapheap can attest, a lot of my winning bets this year have involved Spurs matches.
If you tip them on here here before hand that's fair enough and I have seen a good few of them, but posting after the event is not good. I have a 20/1 in play at the moment that I wouldn't dream of gloating about on here if it wins.
I was trying to cheer up Scrapheap that I can't see anything other than a Spurs win next Sunday.
Yet another CALAMITOUS result after playing a Europa League game just before it...
Same old, same old.
Look on the bright side, next weekend you play on Sunday after a Europa League game AND THE ENGLAND CRICKET TEAM ARE PLAYING ON THE SAME DAY!
Oh.
Home to Cardiff, who lost 4-0 at home to Hull - you think Spurs could possibly muck that up? We don't even need those other omens to do that...
Spurs Season Endings - domestically 23/2/2014, in europe 27/2/2014.
The only cause for hope?
Lord Sugar@Lord_Sugar·1h With prospect of playing Chelsea ,Arsenal and Liverpool in next few games. Some might say with the loss at Norwich. Spurs season is over
I backed Norwich to win today and Emmanuel as FGS.
Cardiff don't tempt me, even at 19/2 to win at the Lane.
Nailed on Spurs win next weekend.
(And I'm going to back you to win on Thursday)
You have an amazing knack of having winning bets after the event!
Not really, I tip a lot of my bets beforehand on here.
I've been busy this weekend, or would have posted them on here.
As Scrapheap can attest, a lot of my winning bets this year have involved Spurs matches.
If you tip them on here here before hand that's fair enough and I have seen a good few of them, but posting after the event is not good. I have a 20/1 in play at the moment that I wouldn't dream of gloating about on here if it wins.
I was trying to cheer up Scrapheap that I can't see anything other than a Spurs win next Sunday.
Cardiff look like certainties to go down.
Agree with you, and it serves them right for sacking a thoroughly decent man, also I cannot stand Solskjaer. Think Fulham are doomed as well.
Trying for the life of me to get a bet on Wales with Victor - their mobile site is almost as dreadful as Laddys. It's by no means clear to me that the 12/1 includes via the play off. It says "top two finish", which strongly suggests not...
With Skybet it is to qualify
To Qualify as per their website and app
SkyBet is 7/4...
Yeah but BetVictor closed my account.
Not to worry – the BetVictor price is top two finish only – definitely. I double checked it. I've not taken the 7/4 from SkyBet as I think it's only marginal value. 12/1 would have been a monster bet!
This is still a good bet
Luis Suarez to outscore the England World Cup Team 7/2
Suarez doesn't score goals anymore. All changed since Daniel came back into the team. If only Liverpool could get all their defenders fit they might challenge for the title. Man City and Chelsea still to play at home.
When Sakho comes back, we'll be better.
Cissokho reminds me of Djimi Traore and that's never good. If City are willing to offer £12m for Skrtel, we should accept it.
Trying for the life of me to get a bet on Wales with Victor - their mobile site is almost as dreadful as Laddys. It's by no means clear to me that the 12/1 includes via the play off. It says "top two finish", which strongly suggests not...
With Skybet it is to qualify
To Qualify as per their website and app
SkyBet is 7/4...
Yeah but BetVictor closed my account.
Not to worry – the BetVictor price is top two finish only – definitely. I double checked it. I've not taken the 7/4 from SkyBet as I think it's only marginal value. 12/1 would have been a monster bet!
This is still a good bet
Luis Suarez to outscore the England World Cup Team 7/2
Suarez doesn't score goals anymore. All changed since Daniel came back into the team. If only Liverpool could get all their defenders fit they might challenge for the title. Man City and Chelsea still to play at home.
Those are crucial games for all three teams, I'm mad Chelsea but City are great value to win it at 2.4
Their worst striker is better than Chelsea's best, if Chelsea had Aguerro coming back then they would win it, but we are stuck with Torres Eto'o and Ba, with him now fit City will win it by three points.
Yet another CALAMITOUS result after playing a Europa League game just before it...
Same old, same old.
Look on the bright side, next weekend you play on Sunday after a Europa League game AND THE ENGLAND CRICKET TEAM ARE PLAYING ON THE SAME DAY!
Oh.
Home to Cardiff, who lost 4-0 at home to Hull - you think Spurs could possibly muck that up? We don't even need those other omens to do that...
Spurs Season Endings - domestically 23/2/2014, in europe 27/2/2014.
The only cause for hope?
Lord Sugar@Lord_Sugar·1h With prospect of playing Chelsea ,Arsenal and Liverpool in next few games. Some might say with the loss at Norwich. Spurs season is over
I backed Norwich to win today and Emmanuel as FGS.
Cardiff don't tempt me, even at 19/2 to win at the Lane.
Nailed on Spurs win next weekend.
(And I'm going to back you to win on Thursday)
You have an amazing knack of having winning bets after the event!
Not really, I tip a lot of my bets beforehand on here.
I've been busy this weekend, or would have posted them on here.
As Scrapheap can attest, a lot of my winning bets this year have involved Spurs matches.
If you tip them on here here before hand that's fair enough and I have seen a good few of them, but posting after the event is not good. I have a 20/1 in play at the moment that I wouldn't dream of gloating about on here if it wins.
I was trying to cheer up Scrapheap that I can't see anything other than a Spurs win next Sunday.
Cardiff look like certainties to go down.
Agree with you, and it serves them right for sacking a thoroughly decent man, also I cannot stand Solskjaer. Think Fulham are doomed as well.
I'd also add in Truro and Newton Abbott as other possible Lib Dem gains.
I'm looking at the possibility of a reverse @FrankBooth / @Danny565 moment and Ed Miliband is decapitated by his brother standing for the Natural Law Party.
Yogic Flyers Winning Here !!
Lib Dems gaining Doncaster North would be funnier
I'll put to my ARSE .... but I'm not hopeful .... sadly.
But here's one for PBers to chew on over on a winter Sunday evening with your favourite tipple to hand :
Which seats might Labour lose in the 2015 GE ??
Jack - I like the look of Plaid Cymru in Ynys Mon. Weak Labour incumbent, Plaid have acedthe Welsh assembly elections here.. Not sure Ed is a vote winner here.
Lord Sugar@Lord_Sugar·1h With prospect of playing Chelsea ,Arsenal and Liverpool in next few games. Some might say with the loss at Norwich. Spurs season is over
I backed Norwich to win today and Emmanuel as FGS.
Cardiff don't tempt me, even at 19/2 to win at the Lane.
Nailed on Spurs win next weekend.
(And I'm going to back you to win on Thursday)
You have an amazing knack of having winning bets after the event!
Not really, I tip a lot of my bets beforehand on here.
I've been busy this weekend, or would have posted them on here.
As Scrapheap can attest, a lot of my winning bets this year have involved Spurs matches.
If you tip them on here here before hand that's fair enough and I have seen a good few of them, but posting after the event is not good. I have a 20/1 in play at the moment that I wouldn't dream of gloating about on here if it wins.
I was trying to cheer up Scrapheap that I can't see anything other than a Spurs win next Sunday.
Cardiff look like certainties to go down.
Agree with you, and it serves them right for sacking a thoroughly decent man, also I cannot stand Solskjaer. Think Fulham are doomed as well.
I was at the Hull match yesterday and I think it was the most shambolic performance I've seen from Cardiff in many years. There are rights and wrongs over Mackay's sacking but OGS appears to be well out of his depth. Whilst hope springs eternal there is little chance for us and I cannot see any way an average Spurs side will not have a comfortable win Sunday.
I'd also add in Truro and Newton Abbott as other possible Lib Dem gains.
I'm looking at the possibility of a reverse @FrankBooth / @Danny565 moment and Ed Miliband is decapitated by his brother standing for the Natural Law Party.
Yogic Flyers Winning Here !!
Lib Dems gaining Doncaster North would be funnier
I'll put to my ARSE .... but I'm not hopeful .... sadly.
But here's one for PBers to chew on over on a winter Sunday evening with your favourite tipple to hand :
Which seats might Labour lose in the 2015 GE ??
Jack - I like the look of Plaid Cymru in Ynys Mon. Weak Labour incumbent, Plaid have acedthe Welsh assembly elections here.. Not sure Ed is a vote winner here.
Yes decent call.
I've already put Ynys Mon on the shortlist as one of the two Welsh seats in the JackW Dozen for the GE. My concern is that it's clearly a seat outside of the norm for a reasonable cross-section of GB seats that will determine the election.
I'd also add in Truro and Newton Abbott as other possible Lib Dem gains.
I'm looking at the possibility of a reverse @FrankBooth / @Danny565 moment and Ed Miliband is decapitated by his brother standing for the Natural Law Party.
Yogic Flyers Winning Here !!
Lib Dems gaining Doncaster North would be funnier
I'll put to my ARSE .... but I'm not hopeful .... sadly.
But here's one for PBers to chew on over on a winter Sunday evening with your favourite tipple to hand :
Which seats might Labour lose in the 2015 GE ??
Jack - I like the look of Plaid Cymru in Ynys Mon. Weak Labour incumbent, Plaid have acedthe Welsh assembly elections here.. Not sure Ed is a vote winner here.
No. I would be very surprised If Labour lose Anglesey(Ynys Mon).Do not extrapolate Assembly election results to GE elections.
If you want to find seats that Labour might lose at the next election, the easiest starting point is where there has been rapid demographic change. And the easiest place to find that is in London. Look for areas that have been rapidly gentrifying. Tooting, for example.
This is not a prediction, mind, merely a suggestion of what to look for.
Is there a chance that the GE could be delayed next year if Scotland vote yes? The Scottish Westminster MPs would be disenfranchised and surely a bill would have to be laid before parliament to enable that to take place. That could take awhile.
Is there a chance that the GE could be delayed next year if Scotland vote yes? The Scottish Westminster MPs would be disenfranchised and surely a bill would have to be laid before parliament to enable that to take place. That could take awhile.
Is there a chance that the GE could be delayed next year if Scotland vote yes? The Scottish Westminster MPs would be disenfranchised and surely a bill would have to be laid before parliament to enable that to take place. That could take awhile.
There is no chance the GE can be delayed. But who's to say Independence can't be advanced? With no currency union, things should be pretty straightforward - and the sooner they are independent, the sooner Scotland can apply to join the EU.
If you want to find seats that Labour might lose at the next election, the easiest starting point is where there has been rapid demographic change. And the easiest place to find that is in London. Look for areas that have been rapidly gentrifying. Tooting, for example.
Interestingly the Tory vote in Pembs has firmed up,in part, as a result of the number of well off retirees who have settled here from England.
If you want to find seats that Labour might lose at the next election, the easiest starting point is where there has been rapid demographic change. And the easiest place to find that is in London. Look for areas that have been rapidly gentrifying. Tooting, for example.
This is not a prediction, mind, merely a suggestion of what to look for.
The difficulty is that the London middle classes are a famously lefty bunch.
I'd also add in Truro and Newton Abbott as other possible Lib Dem gains.
I'm looking at the possibility of a reverse @FrankBooth / @Danny565 moment and Ed Miliband is decapitated by his brother standing for the Natural Law Party.
Yogic Flyers Winning Here !!
Lib Dems gaining Doncaster North would be funnier
I'll put to my ARSE .... but I'm not hopeful .... sadly.
But here's one for PBers to chew on over on a winter Sunday evening with your favourite tipple to hand :
Which seats might Labour lose in the 2015 GE ??
Jack - I like the look of Plaid Cymru in Ynys Mon. Weak Labour incumbent, Plaid have acedthe Welsh assembly elections here.. Not sure Ed is a vote winner here.
No. I would be very surprised If Labour lose Anglesey(Ynys Mon).Do not extrapolate Assembly election results to GE elections.
Thanks valleyboy. Why are you so confident here? Seems like the kind of seat that could go against the national swing with the right candidates.
If you want to find seats that Labour might lose at the next election, the easiest starting point is where there has been rapid demographic change. And the easiest place to find that is in London. Look for areas that have been rapidly gentrifying. Tooting, for example.
This is not a prediction, mind, merely a suggestion of what to look for.
The difficulty is that the London middle classes are a famously lefty bunch.
Remind us from which party the current Mayor of London hails from? And did he defeat a famously lefty to win both times?
If you want to find seats that Labour might lose at the next election, the easiest starting point is where there has been rapid demographic change. And the easiest place to find that is in London. Look for areas that have been rapidly gentrifying. Tooting, for example.
This is not a prediction, mind, merely a suggestion of what to look for.
The difficulty is that the London middle classes are a famously lefty bunch.
There's clearly a tendency for the young people middle class to leave London when they have kids. For some reason they seem more likely to be Tory, whereas Labour voters seem more likely to stay behind.
If you want to find seats that Labour might lose at the next election, the easiest starting point is where there has been rapid demographic change. And the easiest place to find that is in London. Look for areas that have been rapidly gentrifying. Tooting, for example.
This is not a prediction, mind, merely a suggestion of what to look for.
The difficulty is that the London middle classes are a famously lefty bunch.
That's overstated. If you look at the last election in Tooting, the result was substantively identical to that in 1983.
Is there a chance that the GE could be delayed next year if Scotland vote yes? The Scottish Westminster MPs would be disenfranchised and surely a bill would have to be laid before parliament to enable that to take place. That could take awhile.
There is no chance the GE can be delayed. But who's to say Independence can't be advanced? With no currency union, things should be pretty straightforward - and the sooner they are independent, the sooner Scotland can apply to join the EU.
Genuine question - why can't the GE be delayed a year to the notional indy day plus the 6 weeks purdah, please? All it needs is a change to the relevant parliament act. And I can't see why that isn't possible, as the same or similar legislation was able to cope with a postponement to the 2011 Scottish GE after Westminster managed to double book May 2010 by picking it for a Westminster GE without checking the diary.
Postponement by a year to indy day would solve a lot of problems as we've discussed before. But I don't recall that anyone ever actually confirmed there was any legal problem with the postponement per se, which is specifically what I am asking about.
The EU thing is not such an issue as the Scots could get a provisional application going the day after the yes vote. (Such things are as fudge-able as a sweetie shop full of tablet.)
Anglesey is a funny place, tending to stick a person, not a party. People who vote Plaid at Assembly level more often than not go elsewhere at GE. In 2011 Plaid had 41% of the Assembly vote. yet in 2010 it had just 26% at the GE. I do not know him personally but as far as I know, Albert Owen is well regarded up there.
Is there a chance that the GE could be delayed next year if Scotland vote yes? The Scottish Westminster MPs would be disenfranchised and surely a bill would have to be laid before parliament to enable that to take place. That could take awhile.
The Mckay Commission's recommendations seem to imply that MPs could be debarred from voting on E & W issues by a simple resolution of the HoC, which would be virtually instantaneous. The same might apply to disenfranchising them altogether.
Regional tensions clearly are at a fresh high. As well as Ukraine's own forces, security and military of the following countries have all heightened alert status and increased the deployment of intelligence resources in the last 24-hours to watch for a possible move by Russia:
Poland Romania Georgia Bulgaria Turkey
Obviously no co-incidence that they are all NATO or firmly within NATO's orbit. Whilst this is precautionary rather than a firm suggestion of an outright crisis on the way, it is a signal.
First Y0kel, the only country in NATO on your list is Turkey, who now have enough problems of it's own internally, and more on the borders of Syria and Lebanon.
Secondly Poland, Romania and Bulgaria are in the EU, but the only major armed forces are Polish, and while they would love to liberate such lost towns ads Lvov (now Lviv), they are not going to get embroiled with Russia if it makes a military move. As for Georgia, I doubt they want another round with Russia.
Third and last, I cannot see Germany or France (The only major military formations in the EU on mainland Europe) wishing to be physically embroiled in the Ukraine, unless Merkel and Hollande do a 100% about face.
Secondly my post doesn't suggest anyone is going to war. As I stated its a precautionary measure because of a fear of some kind of action, not that one is coming. It is, however, of note that they have bothered as frontline states.
Thirdly any country facing the possibility of such a regional issue will want to keep itself on top of things. Security Services & militaries go on alerts of one kind or another, whether on a large or small scale with reasonable regularity.
Is there a chance that the GE could be delayed next year if Scotland vote yes? The Scottish Westminster MPs would be disenfranchised and surely a bill would have to be laid before parliament to enable that to take place. That could take awhile.
There is no chance the GE can be delayed. But who's to say Independence can't be advanced? With no currency union, things should be pretty straightforward - and the sooner they are independent, the sooner Scotland can apply to join the EU.
Genuine question - why can't the GE be delayed a year to the notional indy day plus the 6 weeks purdah, please? All it needs is a change to the relevant parliament act. And I can't see why that isn't possible, as the same or similar legislation was able to cope with a postponement to the 2011 Scottish GE after Westminster managed to double book May 2010 by picking it for a Westminster GE without checking the diary.
Postponement by a year to indy day would solve a lot of problems as we've discussed before. But I don't recall that anyone ever actually confirmed there was any legal problem with the postponement per se, which is specifically what I am asking about.
The EU thing is not such an issue as the Scots could get a provisional application going the day after the yes vote. (Such things are as fudge-able as a sweetie shop full of tablet.)
If the polls maintain their current level, people would accuse the Coalition of hanging in for another year.
The optics would be terrible for them, there'd be protests in the streets with people saying they had no mandate.
Is there a chance that the GE could be delayed next year if Scotland vote yes? The Scottish Westminster MPs would be disenfranchised and surely a bill would have to be laid before parliament to enable that to take place. That could take awhile.
There is no chance the GE can be delayed. But who's to say Independence can't be advanced? With no currency union, things should be pretty straightforward - and the sooner they are independent, the sooner Scotland can apply to join the EU.
Genuine question - why can't the GE be delayed a year to the notional indy day plus the 6 weeks purdah, please? All it needs is a change to the relevant parliament act. And I can't see why that isn't possible, as the same or similar legislation was able to cope with a postponement to the 2011 Scottish GE after Westminster managed to double book May 2010 by picking it for a Westminster GE without checking the diary.
Why should the rights of 92% of the UK to choose their government be delayed to suit the convenience of the 8% who want to leave?
Since "18 months" is as well thought through as "currency union" or "automatic EU membership" what remote justification can there be for such a delay? Salmond knew well the UK electoral cycle when he set the date for Indyref - so one man gets to decide when 92% of the UK gets to chose a new government?
Morris Dancer Afghanistan and Iraq were not great triumphs but nor were they defeats, Bin Laden and Saddam Hussein are now dead.
On Scotland, even if Independence does pass, and present polls still suggest a clear No, as has been repeatedly pointed out it would hardly be Armageddon for Labour. Blair and Attlee would have won ALL their elections without Scotland and Wilson 2/4 of his (and in 1964 Home was ironically a Scot and Wilson English, while in Feb 1974 a Heath re-election would have meant no PM Thatcher, so even more ironically it was the Scots who gave us Thatcher!)
If you want to find seats that Labour might lose at the next election, the easiest starting point is where there has been rapid demographic change. And the easiest place to find that is in London. Look for areas that have been rapidly gentrifying. Tooting, for example.
This is not a prediction, mind, merely a suggestion of what to look for.
The difficulty is that the London middle classes are a famously lefty bunch.
Remind us from which party the current Mayor of London hails from? And did he defeat a famously lefty to win both times?
Yes, he defied political gravity in a Labour city - although most of his support comes from areas in the far flung suburbs, not Zone 3.
If you want to find seats that Labour might lose at the next election, the easiest starting point is where there has been rapid demographic change. And the easiest place to find that is in London. Look for areas that have been rapidly gentrifying. Tooting, for example.
This is not a prediction, mind, merely a suggestion of what to look for.
The difficulty is that the London middle classes are a famously lefty bunch.
That's overstated. If you look at the last election in Tooting, the result was substantively identical to that in 1983.
If you look at substantial regional voting samples, you'll find that London is one of the only regions where Labour has a decent lead among ABs.
If you want to find seats that Labour might lose at the next election, the easiest starting point is where there has been rapid demographic change. And the easiest place to find that is in London. Look for areas that have been rapidly gentrifying. Tooting, for example.
This is not a prediction, mind, merely a suggestion of what to look for.
The difficulty is that the London middle classes are a famously lefty bunch.
Remind us from which party the current Mayor of London hails from? And did he defeat a famously lefty to win both times?
Didn't Labour win the Assembly election held on the same day as the mayoral one?
If you want to find seats that Labour might lose at the next election, the easiest starting point is where there has been rapid demographic change. And the easiest place to find that is in London. Look for areas that have been rapidly gentrifying. Tooting, for example.
This is not a prediction, mind, merely a suggestion of what to look for.
The difficulty is that the London middle classes are a famously lefty bunch.
There's clearly a tendency for the young people middle class to leave London when they have kids. For some reason they seem more likely to be Tory, whereas Labour voters seem more likely to stay behind.
A possible reason is that many young Tories don't like London much so want to get out. Middle class Labourites probably like it, so want to stay, thus maintaining the traditional rural/urban voting split.
If you want to find seats that Labour might lose at the next election, the easiest starting point is where there has been rapid demographic change. And the easiest place to find that is in London. Look for areas that have been rapidly gentrifying. Tooting, for example.
This is not a prediction, mind, merely a suggestion of what to look for.
The difficulty is that the London middle classes are a famously lefty bunch.
Remind us from which party the current Mayor of London hails from? And did he defeat a famously lefty to win both times?
Didn't Labour win the Assembly election held on the same day as the mayoral one?
Monday's Daily Mail front page - "How much longer can paedophilia apologists stay silent" #tomorrowspaperstoday
pic.twitter.com/rCbKh0ISoz
I think this is more "flogging dead horse" territory, than "misjudgement". Whatever his politics, Milband père clearly had another side to him (war record etc) which fatally undermined the Mail's theme. In this case there is no "good side" to paedophilia or their apologists, it's just all such a darned long time ago.....what I wonder is why the Mail have sought to dig this up now?
Monday's Daily Mail front page - "How much longer can paedophilia apologists stay silent" #tomorrowspaperstoday
pic.twitter.com/rCbKh0ISoz
I think this is more "flogging dead horse" territory, than "misjudgement". Whatever his politics, Milband père clearly had another side to him (war record etc) which fatally undermined the Mail's theme. In this case there is no "good side" to paedophilia or their apologists, it's just all such a darned long time ago.....what I wonder is why the Mail have sought to dig this up now?
Indeed. The story has been around a few times - I have certainly read it a few times in the past.
If you want to find seats that Labour might lose at the next election, the easiest starting point is where there has been rapid demographic change. And the easiest place to find that is in London. Look for areas that have been rapidly gentrifying. Tooting, for example.
This is not a prediction, mind, merely a suggestion of what to look for.
The difficulty is that the London middle classes are a famously lefty bunch.
That's overstated. If you look at the last election in Tooting, the result was substantively identical to that in 1983.
If you look at substantial regional voting samples, you'll find that London is one of the only regions where Labour has a decent lead among ABs.
Some suburban constituencies in the north are also going that way. In the 2010 election, some of the smallest swings against Labour were recorded in relatively affluent suburban places (e.g. Wirral). And obviously it's a long-established trend in Scotland of even exceedingly wealthy places shunning the Conservatives.
As I've said before, that's the real killer for the Tories. Obviously they're absolutely nowhere in the highly urbanised inner cities, but they got slaughtered in those types of seats even in the 80s but that didn't stop them from winning because they managed to sweep the board virtually everywhere else. But, gradually over the past 20 years, anti-Toryism has been spreading from just the inner cities out into the affluent suburbs.
If you want to find seats that Labour might lose at the next election, the easiest starting point is where there has been rapid demographic change. And the easiest place to find that is in London. Look for areas that have been rapidly gentrifying. Tooting, for example.
This is not a prediction, mind, merely a suggestion of what to look for.
The difficulty is that the London middle classes are a famously lefty bunch.
far flung suburbs, not Zone 3.
I thought Zone 3 already was "the far flung suburbs"?
On a more serious note, Boris won because he was Boris, London did not say "Let's have a Tory Mayor", it said "Let's have Boris (even though he's aTory)"....
A possible reason is that many young Tories don't like London much so want to get out. Middle class Labourites probably like it, so want to stay, thus maintaining the traditional rural/urban voting split.
I think that's spot on. If you like a multicultural environment with lots of culture and politics available, you'll probably (a) vote Labour and (b) like London. If you prefer a quieter environment where you can bring up kids without too much politics or anything else, the reverse.
By the way, meant to say it before, but I think TLBS is a great addition to the site - an even-tempered intelligent leftie and always worth reading, like Sean Fear and Richard Tyndall on the right. What is the significance of the name?
I doubt this Mail thing is going to have much impact. I feel like the public almost has fatigue when it comes to political scandals now. It's just already priced in that all polticians are sleazy scumbags, so it takes something really huge to get much public reaction. This story seems far too convoluted and happened too long ago to really get the average person's attention I think.
`Mail is flogging a dead horse`-That was 3 days ago.
Hasn`t the Mail got things to report on todays` news rather than imagined scandals of 40 years ago.A national institution is becoming a laughing stock.
UKIP arguing in that a country should not be allowed to set their own employment rules, but should be disallowed from discriminating against other EU citizens? I think that comes in the 'You couldn't make it up' category!
Hasn`t the Mail got things to report on todays` news rather than imagined scandals of 40 years ago.A national institution is becoming a laughing stock.
I expect they are modelling themselves on the BBC and the Guardian.
If you want to find seats that Labour might lose at the next election, the easiest starting point is where there has been rapid demographic change. And the easiest place to find that is in London. Look for areas that have been rapidly gentrifying. Tooting, for example.
This is not a prediction, mind, merely a suggestion of what to look for.
The difficulty is that the London middle classes are a famously lefty bunch.
That's overstated. If you look at the last election in Tooting, the result was substantively identical to that in 1983.
If you look at substantial regional voting samples, you'll find that London is one of the only regions where Labour has a decent lead among ABs.
Some suburban constituencies in the north are also going that way. In the 2010 election, some of the smallest swings against Labour were recorded in relatively affluent suburban places (e.g. Wirral). And obviously it's a long-established trend in Scotland of even exceedingly wealthy places shunning the Conservatives.
As I've said before, that's the real killer for the Tories. Obviously they're absolutely nowhere in the highly urbanised inner cities, but they got slaughtered in those types of seats even in the 80s but that didn't stop them from winning because they managed to sweep the board virtually everywhere else. But, gradually over the past 20 years, anti-Toryism has been spreading from just the inner cities out into the affluent suburbs.
Interesting. That is almost thread worthy, if it is indeed a trend.
If you want to find seats that Labour might lose at the next election, the easiest starting point is where there has been rapid demographic change. And the easiest place to find that is in London. Look for areas that have been rapidly gentrifying. Tooting, for example.
This is not a prediction, mind, merely a suggestion of what to look for.
The difficulty is that the London middle classes are a famously lefty bunch.
That's overstated. If you look at the last election in Tooting, the result was substantively identical to that in 1983.
If you look at substantial regional voting samples, you'll find that London is one of the only regions where Labour has a decent lead among ABs.
Some suburban constituencies in the north are also going that way. In the 2010 election, some of the smallest swings against Labour were recorded in relatively affluent suburban places (e.g. Wirral). And obviously it's a long-established trend in Scotland of even exceedingly wealthy places shunning the Conservatives.
As I've said before, that's the real killer for the Tories. Obviously they're absolutely nowhere in the highly urbanised inner cities, but they got slaughtered in those types of seats even in the 80s but that didn't stop them from winning because they managed to sweep the board virtually everywhere else. But, gradually over the past 20 years, anti-Toryism has been spreading from just the inner cities out into the affluent suburbs.
On the other hand, this trend works against Labour too. I wouldn't be surprised if Labour were to come out of the 2015 election without a single seat in Kent, Essex, and Hertfordshire.
Nick Palmer, Maybe, but clearly the richest Tories still like London (with maybe a weekend country retreat), which is why Kensington, Chelsea, the City and Westminster still returned Tory MPs even in 1997 and 2001. For more middle class Tories though it may be the case that they prefer to commute from the Home Counties to London in middle age, whereas more left-leaning contempories are prepared to stay in Hackney, Camden or Peckham.
You don't think the views propounded at the time were scandalous?
The direct involvement of the Labour politicians the Mail is going after seems pretty peripheral (I haven't seen anything to suggest they actively advocated these policies, I suspect the worst they can be accused of is "didn't speak out against them") - but, as you observe, it's a very long time ago.....
UKIP arguing in that a country should not be allowed to set their own employment rules, but should be disallowed from discriminating against other EU citizens? I think that comes in the 'You couldn't make it up' category!
`Mail is flogging a dead horse`-That was 3 days ago.
Hasn`t the Mail got things to report on todays` news rather than imagined scandals of 40 years ago.A national institution is becoming a laughing stock.
You don't think the views propounded at the time were scandalous?
The direct involvement of the Labour politicians the Mail is going after seems pretty peripheral (I haven't seen anything to suggest they actively advocated these policies, I suspect the worst they can be accused of is "didn't speak out against them") - but, as you observe, it's a very long time ago.....
It's similar to the way some Left-wing politicians were apologists for Sinn Fein, in the early 80's.
If you want to find seats that Labour might lose at the next election, the easiest starting point is where there has been rapid demographic change. And the easiest place to find that is in London. Look for areas that have been rapidly gentrifying. Tooting, for example.
This is not a prediction, mind, merely a suggestion of what to look for.
The difficulty is that the London middle classes are a famously lefty bunch.
That's overstated. If you look at the last election in Tooting, the result was substantively identical to that in 1983.
If you look at substantial regional voting samples, you'll find that London is one of the only regions where Labour has a decent lead among ABs.
Some suburban constituencies in the north are also going that way. In the 2010 election, some of the smallest swings against Labour were recorded in relatively affluent suburban places (e.g. Wirral). And obviously it's a long-established trend in Scotland of even exceedingly wealthy places shunning the Conservatives.
As I've said before, that's the real killer for the Tories. Obviously they're absolutely nowhere in the highly urbanised inner cities, but they got slaughtered in those types of seats even in the 80s but that didn't stop them from winning because they managed to sweep the board virtually everywhere else. But, gradually over the past 20 years, anti-Toryism has been spreading from just the inner cities out into the affluent suburbs.
On the other hand, this trend works against Labour too. I wouldn't be surprised if Labour were to come out of the 2015 election without a single seat in Kent, Essex, and Hertfordshire.
I think Labour won`t win any in Herfordshire but they`ll probably win 5-10 seats in Kent and Essex combined,IMO.
I doubt this Mail thing is going to have much impact. I feel like the public almost has fatigue when it comes to political scandals now. It's just already priced in that all polticians are sleazy scumbags, so it takes something really huge to get much public reaction. This story seems far too convoluted and happened too long ago to really get the average person's attention I think.
The whole paedephilia thing has blown up since Savile, also a long time ago.
If they dig further into this they will find a massive can of worms involving MP's of all sides, for example Hewitt was in charge of child are in Islington when a massive scandal erupted, Jason Swift was in care in Islington.
Much as I don't want to be seen as a nutjob like Ickes, he was right about a lot of things. Anyone in the know knew about Savile and young girls but only Icke outed him as a necrophiliac.
This whole thing has massive implications for the establishment.
You don't think the views propounded at the time were scandalous?
The direct involvement of the Labour politicians the Mail is going after seems pretty peripheral (I haven't seen anything to suggest they actively advocated these policies, I suspect the worst they can be accused of is "didn't speak out against them") - but, as you observe, it's a very long time ago.....
That "very long time ago" reason could be trotted out on most paedophile scandals. The truth is that it takes the victims a long time to speak out.
Meanwhile, here's another scandal that happened " a long time ago", but a participant in the cover-up is still in a prominent position in a public corporation.
No wonder the BBC isn't following up this particular story.
`Mail is flogging a dead horse`-That was 3 days ago.
Hasn`t the Mail got things to report on todays` news rather than imagined scandals of 40 years ago.A national institution is becoming a laughing stock.
Isn't that what the friends of a certain dead disc jockey used to say?
I doubt this Mail thing is going to have much impact. I feel like the public almost has fatigue when it comes to political scandals now. It's just already priced in that all polticians are sleazy scumbags, so it takes something really huge to get much public reaction. This story seems far too convoluted and happened too long ago to really get the average person's attention I think.
The whole paedephilia thing has blown up since Savile, also a long time ago.
If they dig further into this they will find a massive can of worms involving MP's of all sides, for example Hewitt was in charge of child are in Islington when a massive scandal erupted, Jason Swift was in care in Islington.
Much as I don't want to be seen as a nutjob like Ickes, he was right about a lot of things. Anyone in the know knew about Savile and young girls but only Icke outed him as a necrophiliac.
This whole thing has massive implications for the establishment.
It was Margaret Hodge who was in charge of "child care" in Islington.
Tony Blair showed he had a dark sense of humour by making her Minister for Children.
You don't think the views propounded at the time were scandalous?
The direct involvement of the Labour politicians the Mail is going after seems pretty peripheral (I haven't seen anything to suggest they actively advocated these policies, I suspect the worst they can be accused of is "didn't speak out against them") - but, as you observe, it's a very long time ago.....
It's similar to the way some Left-wing politicians were apologists for Sinn Fein, in the early 80's.
Not to mention the Soviet Union and the "worker's democracies" of the Eastern Block...
`Mail is flogging a dead horse`-That was 3 days ago.
Hasn`t the Mail got things to report on todays` news rather than imagined scandals of 40 years ago.A national institution is becoming a laughing stock.
Lefty panic alert!
If this is an imagined scandal then the protagonists have nothing to worry about and will seek to defend themselves, possibly with libel action. Why haven't they yet done so?
By dismissing this out of hand as you have just done implicates you as complicit in that as they are part of the party you support it must be imagined and nothing more than muckraking by the 'laughing stock'.
Did you say the same when they exposed the Stephen Lawrence killers?
`Mail is flogging a dead horse`-That was 3 days ago.
Hasn`t the Mail got things to report on todays` news rather than imagined scandals of 40 years ago.A national institution is becoming a laughing stock.
Isn't that what the friends of a certain dead disc jockey used to say?
So the disc jockey news was public knowledge,was it?
Nevertheless the Mail is running this story for the third or fourth day with little additional news.They just keep writing the same thing over and over again.I think an article in the Guardian may have prompted today`s headline though.
I doubt this Mail thing is going to have much impact. I feel like the public almost has fatigue when it comes to political scandals now. It's just already priced in that all polticians are sleazy scumbags, so it takes something really huge to get much public reaction. This story seems far too convoluted and happened too long ago to really get the average person's attention I think.
The whole paedephilia thing has blown up since Savile, also a long time ago.
If they dig further into this they will find a massive can of worms involving MP's of all sides, for example Hewitt was in charge of child are in Islington when a massive scandal erupted, Jason Swift was in care in Islington.
Much as I don't want to be seen as a nutjob like Ickes, he was right about a lot of things. Anyone in the know knew about Savile and young girls but only Icke outed him as a necrophiliac.
This whole thing has massive implications for the establishment.
It was Margaret Hodge who was in charge of "child care" in Islington.
Tony Blair showed he had a dark sense of humour by making her Minister for Children.
So sorry, you are correct, this whole scandal winds me up so much that I got Hewitt and Hodge mixed up, but you have just added another senior Labour figure to the mix.
`Mail is flogging a dead horse`-That was 3 days ago.
Hasn`t the Mail got things to report on todays` news rather than imagined scandals of 40 years ago.A national institution is becoming a laughing stock.
Isn't that what the friends of a certain dead disc jockey used to say?
So the disc jockey news was public knowledge,was it?
Nevertheless the Mail is running this story for the third or fourth day with little additional news.They just keep writing the same thing over and over again.I think an article in the Guardian may have prompted today`s headline though.
There were reports of it numerous times going back to the 1980's that I can recall.As for repetitive journalism. I thought it was a standard journalistic practice. But I get it. Its only a problem when it affects those on the left.
`Mail is flogging a dead horse`-That was 3 days ago.
Hasn`t the Mail got things to report on todays` news rather than imagined scandals of 40 years ago.A national institution is becoming a laughing stock.
Lefty panic alert!
If this is an imagined scandal then the protagonists have nothing to worry about and will seek to defend themselves, possibly with libel action. Why haven't they yet done so?
By dismissing this out of hand as you have just done implicates you as complicit in that as they are part of the party you support it must be imagined and nothing more than muckraking by the 'laughing stock'.
Did you say the same when they exposed the Stephen Lawrence killers?
I hope the Mail continue to run this story for many weeks as possible.Let`s see how many times they rephrase their headline.
`Mail is flogging a dead horse`-That was 3 days ago.
Hasn`t the Mail got things to report on todays` news rather than imagined scandals of 40 years ago.A national institution is becoming a laughing stock.
Lefty panic alert!
If this is an imagined scandal then the protagonists have nothing to worry about and will seek to defend themselves, possibly with libel action. Why haven't they yet done so?
By dismissing this out of hand as you have just done implicates you as complicit in that as they are part of the party you support it must be imagined and nothing more than muckraking by the 'laughing stock'.
Did you say the same when they exposed the Stephen Lawrence killers?
I hope the Mail continue to run this story for many weeks as possible.Let`s see how many times they rephrase their headline.
I doubt if the people concerned want the Mail to keep running the story.
`Mail is flogging a dead horse`-That was 3 days ago.
Hasn`t the Mail got things to report on todays` news rather than imagined scandals of 40 years ago.A national institution is becoming a laughing stock.
Lefty panic alert!
If this is an imagined scandal then the protagonists have nothing to worry about and will seek to defend themselves, possibly with libel action. Why haven't they yet done so?
By dismissing this out of hand as you have just done implicates you as complicit in that as they are part of the party you support it must be imagined and nothing more than muckraking by the 'laughing stock'.
Did you say the same when they exposed the Stephen Lawrence killers?
I hope the Mail continue to run this story for many weeks as possible.Let`s see how many times they rephrase their headline.
Yes, let's do that. They did it with the Lawrence killers and look how things turned out for them.
Out of interest do you think this should be investigated further or should it just be dropped as it may be awkward for Labour?
The demographic trends in london and the south east are not straightforward. The boris 'doughnut' thing is overstated - he also cleaned up in inner west london (h+f, k+c and westminster) and in rich or white working class areas of outer london. In other bits of outer london eg Enfield and Harrow, the trend has been towards labour. Keep an eye on the london locals this year particularly h+f. Which has become increasingly Tory but without (yet) the parliamentary affect that it had in the 80s in Wandsworth. Sean Bailey was a poor candidate last time round. Labour must be praying for Toby young this time - the sort of opponent you'd like to meet every elector. Slaughter is very active against the council on housing issues.
Kent and Essex very interesting. 'White flight' and relatively poor labour organisation should help the Tories (and or ukip) but benefits cap is likely to force out poor (and minority) Londoners to places like Harlow, Thurrock and the Medway towns. This is clearly happening in Harlow. Labour hasn't selected particularly Essex friendly candidates in Harlow and Thurrock (Polly and Susie) don't know about Medway. Locally labour has done ok in the Essex councils but poorly in kent apart from Gravesham. They will struggle I think to pick up more than a couple (or even that) of kent seats.
`Mail is flogging a dead horse`-That was 3 days ago.
Hasn`t the Mail got things to report on todays` news rather than imagined scandals of 40 years ago.A national institution is becoming a laughing stock.
Lefty panic alert!
If this is an imagined scandal then the protagonists have nothing to worry about and will seek to defend themselves, possibly with libel action. Why haven't they yet done so?
By dismissing this out of hand as you have just done implicates you as complicit in that as they are part of the party you support it must be imagined and nothing more than muckraking by the 'laughing stock'.
Did you say the same when they exposed the Stephen Lawrence killers?
I hope the Mail continue to run this story for many weeks as possible.Let`s see how many times they rephrase their headline.
Yes, let's do that. They did it with the Lawrence killers and look how things turned out for them.
Out of interest do you think this should be investigated further or should it just be dropped as it may be awkward for Labour?</blockq
Let`s be honest,the only reason the Mail is interested in this story is because they want to throw some mud around and hope some of it will stick to Labour politicians after Ed gave them a bloody nose over news of his dad.
If they have any more news they should publish it.It seems this is a digging exercise where they are hoping this will turn out into a controversy and tarnish Labour.
`Mail is flogging a dead horse`-That was 3 days ago.
Hasn`t the Mail got things to report on todays` news rather than imagined scandals of 40 years ago.A national institution is becoming a laughing stock.
Lefty panic alert!
If this is an imagined scandal then the protagonists have nothing to worry about and will seek to defend themselves, possibly with libel action. Why haven't they yet done so?
By dismissing this out of hand as you have just done implicates you as complicit in that as they are part of the party you support it must be imagined and nothing more than muckraking by the 'laughing stock'.
Did you say the same when they exposed the Stephen Lawrence killers?
I hope the Mail continue to run this story for many weeks as possible.Let`s see how many times they rephrase their headline.
Yes, let's do that. They did it with the Lawrence killers and look how things turned out for them.
Out of interest do you think this should be investigated further or should it just be dropped as it may be awkward for Labour?
It's already a controversy. I detest tribal politics and people like you defending the most heinous of crimes because it suits your cause.
If the people named have nothing to hide then surely they will defend themselves and sue the Mail for damages?
A possible reason is that many young Tories don't like London much so want to get out. Middle class Labourites probably like it, so want to stay, thus maintaining the traditional rural/urban voting split.
I think that's spot on. If you like a multicultural environment with lots of culture and politics available, you'll probably (a) vote Labour and (b) like London. If you prefer a quieter environment where you can bring up kids without too much politics or anything else, the reverse.
By the way, meant to say it before, but I think TLBS is a great addition to the site - an even-tempered intelligent leftie and always worth reading, like Sean Fear and Richard Tyndall on the right. What is the significance of the name?
What do you mean what is the significance of the name
`Mail is flogging a dead horse`-That was 3 days ago.
Hasn`t the Mail got things to report on todays` news rather than imagined scandals of 40 years ago.A national institution is becoming a laughing stock.
Lefty panic alert!
If this is an imagined scandal then the protagonists have nothing to worry about and will seek to defend themselves, possibly with libel action. Why haven't they yet done so?
By dismissing this out of hand as you have just done implicates you as complicit in that as they are part of the party you support it must be imagined and nothing more than muckraking by the 'laughing stock'.
Did you say the same when they exposed the Stephen Lawrence killers?
I hope the Mail continue to run this story for many weeks as possible.Let`s see how many times they rephrase their headline.
Yes, let's do that. They did it with the Lawrence killers and look how things turned out for them.
Out of interest do you think this should be investigated further or should it just be dropped as it may be awkward for Labour?
It's already a controversy. I detest tribal politics and people like you defending the most heinous of crimes because it suits your cause.
If the people named have nothing to hide then surely they will defend themselves and sue the Mail for damages?
I would hope you detest the way the right-wing papers only go after controversies involving Labour politicians too.
They are accused of belonging to an organisation(precursor of Liberty) to which another organisation is affliated which supported underage sex,is that right?
If you want to find seats that Labour might lose at the next election, the easiest starting point is where there has been rapid demographic change. And the easiest place to find that is in London. Look for areas that have been rapidly gentrifying. Tooting, for example.
This is not a prediction, mind, merely a suggestion of what to look for.
The difficulty is that the London middle classes are a famously lefty bunch.
That's overstated. If you look at the last election in Tooting, the result was substantively identical to that in 1983.
If you look at substantial regional voting samples, you'll find that London is one of the only regions where Labour has a decent lead among ABs.
Some suburban constituencies in the north are also going that way. In the 2010 election, some of the smallest swings against Labour were recorded in relatively affluent suburban places (e.g. Wirral). And obviously it's a long-established trend in Scotland of even exceedingly wealthy places shunning the Conservatives.
As I've said before, that's the real killer for the Tories. Obviously they're absolutely nowhere in the highly urbanised inner cities, but they got slaughtered in those types of seats even in the 80s but that didn't stop them from winning because they managed to sweep the board virtually everywhere else. But, gradually over the past 20 years, anti-Toryism has been spreading from just the inner cities out into the affluent suburbs.
On the other hand, this trend works against Labour too. I wouldn't be surprised if Labour were to come out of the 2015 election without a single seat in Kent, Essex, and Hertfordshire.
I think Labour won`t win any in Herfordshire but they`ll probably win 5-10 seats in Kent and Essex combined,IMO.
S Mukesh - I'm not sure there are 10 seats in Essex and Kent that Labour can win. You have:
Thurrock - Con maj 92 votes Dover - Con maj 5k South Basildon - Con maj 5.5k Chatham - Con maj 6k S Thanet - Con maj 7.5k Gillingham - Con maj 8.5k Gravesham - Con maj 9k Rochester - Con maj 10k Dartford - Con maj 10.5k Sittingbourne - Con maj 12k Basildon - Con maj 12k Clacton - 12k
The problem is the LDs were generally not that strong in these seats. For example Labour would have to win pretty much the entire LD vote in S Basildon to overcome the majority without Con-lab or Con-UKIP switchers.
Interestingly only the top 4 above are on Labour's target list and Watford is higher up than Dover
As an aside, Gibraltar enter the tournament for the first time - they were drawn against Spain but moved to avoid inflaming the political situation. I don't think that is right or fair - Northern Ireland have faced Ireland in recent years, while Croatia have met Serbia.
Gibraltar didn't have any problem with the tie. However Spain was one of only two countries to oppose our membership of UEFA and after joining they flatly said they just wouldn't play us. So UEFA came up with the face-saving compromise of abjectly caving in.
Spain not playing Gib isn't due to political reasons - Spain are just scared of losing*
S Mukesh - I'm not sure there are 10 seats in Essex and Kent that Labour can win. You have:
Thurrock - Con maj 92 votes Dover - Con maj 5k South Basildon - Con maj 5.5k Chatham - Con maj 6k S Thanet - Con maj 7.5k Gillingham - Con maj 8.5k Gravesham - Con maj 9k Rochester - Con maj 10k Dartford - Con maj 10.5k Sittingbourne - Con maj 12k Basildon - Con maj 12k Clacton - 12k
The problem is the LDs were generally not that strong in these seats. For example Labour would have to win pretty much the entire LD vote in S Basildon to overcome the majority without Con-lab or Con-UKIP switchers.
Interestingly only the top 4 above are on Labour's target list and Watford is higher up than Dover
I think the Conservatives might just hold on in Dover, they have an energetic MP there. Although a lot depends on how UKIP fare.
Attacking Labour over paedophilia seems like a risky strategy for the establishment. Its not like its a one party problem, and the suggestion is that the tentacles reached into all parties. Let's put it like this. The former cabinet ministers whose names I keep reading about in connection with this didn't wear red rosettes. But I have no doubt that Labour people are involved too, as are/were senior cops judges and newspaper people.
Or we can all shriek at various half/fully dead "celebs" and pretend it was only them....
A possible reason is that many young Tories don't like London much so want to get out. Middle class Labourites probably like it, so want to stay, thus maintaining the traditional rural/urban voting split.
I think that's spot on. If you like a multicultural environment with lots of culture and politics available, you'll probably (a) vote Labour and (b) like London. If you prefer a quieter environment where you can bring up kids without too much politics or anything else, the reverse.
By the way, meant to say it before, but I think TLBS is a great addition to the site - an even-tempered intelligent leftie and always worth reading, like Sean Fear and Richard Tyndall on the right. What is the significance of the name?
If that last paragraph isn't a nod to an in joke then Nick, your judgement and nous can't be trusted to office
Attacking Labour over paedophilia seems like a risky strategy for the establishment. Its not like its a one party problem, and the suggestion is that the tentacles reached into all parties. Let's put it like this. The former cabinet ministers whose names I keep reading about in connection with this didn't wear red rosettes. But I have no doubt that Labour people are involved too, as are/were senior cops judges and newspaper people.
Or we can all shriek at various half/fully dead "celebs" and pretend it was only them....
The great thing about newspapers is they
1. Do not employ children 2. Do not look after children 3. Do not have children in an audience 4. Do not have children as guests.
This gives them a completely free hand in attacking churches, local government and political parties.
There is no counter-play for those attacked to use. They just have to sit there and take it.
I think Armenia and Azerbaijan were drawn against each other and switched to different groups. Probaby a wise one as the away legs would have been a bit fruity.
As an aside, Gibraltar enter the tournament for the first time - they were drawn against Spain but moved to avoid inflaming the political situation. I don't think that is right or fair - Northern Ireland have faced Ireland in recent years, while Croatia have met Serbia.
Gibraltar didn't have any problem with the tie. However Spain was one of only two countries to oppose our membership of UEFA and after joining they flatly said they just wouldn't play us. So UEFA came up with the face-saving compromise of abjectly caving in.
Spain not playing Gib isn't due to political reasons - Spain are just scared of losing*
If you want to find seats that Labour might lose at the next election, the easiest starting point is where there has been rapid demographic change. And the easiest place to find that is in London. Look for areas that have been rapidly gentrifying. Tooting, for example.
This is not a prediction, mind, merely a suggestion of what to look for.
The difficulty is that the London middle classes are a famously lefty bunch.
That's overstated. If you look at the last election in Tooting, the result was substantively identical to that in 1983.
If you look at substantial regional voting samples, you'll find that London is one of the only regions where Labour has a decent lead among ABs.
Some suburban constituencies in the north are also going that way. In the 2010 election, some of the smallest swings against Labour were recorded in relatively affluent suburban places (e.g. Wirral). And obviously it's a long-established trend in Scotland of even exceedingly wealthy places shunning the Conservatives.
As I've said before, that's the real killer for the Tories. Obviously they're absolutely nowhere in the highly urbanised inner cities, but they got slaughtered in those types of seats even in the 80s but that didn't stop them from winning because they managed to sweep the board virtually everywhere else. But, gradually over the past 20 years, anti-Toryism has been spreading from just the inner cities out into the affluent suburbs.
On the other hand, this trend works against Labour too. I wouldn't be surprised if Labour were to come out of the 2015 election without a single seat in Kent, Essex, and Hertfordshire.
I think Labour won`t win any in Herfordshire but they`ll probably win 5-10 seats in Kent and Essex combined,IMO.
Labour probably won't win more than 1-2 seats in Kent and Essex. The Tory majorities are too big.
`Mail is flogging a dead horse`-That was 3 days ago.
Hasn`t the Mail got things to report on todays` news rather than imagined scandals of 40 years ago.A national institution is becoming a laughing stock.
Lefty panic alert!
If this is an imagined scandal then the protagonists have nothing to worry about and will seek to defend themselves, possibly with libel action. Why haven't they yet done so?
By dismissing this out of hand as you have just done implicates you as complicit in that as they are part of the party you support it must be imagined and nothing more than muckraking by the 'laughing stock'.
Did you say the same when they exposed the Stephen Lawrence killers?
I hope the Mail continue to run this story for many weeks as possible.Let`s see how many times they rephrase their headline.
Yes, let's do that. They did it with the Lawrence killers and look how things turned out for them.
Out of interest do you think this should be investigated further or should it just be dropped as it may be awkward for Labour?
It's already a controversy. I detest tribal politics and people like you defending the most heinous of crimes because it suits your cause.
If the people named have nothing to hide then surely they will defend themselves and sue the Mail for damages?
I would hope you detest the way the right-wing papers only go after controversies involving Labour politicians too.
They are accused of belonging to an organisation(precursor of Liberty) to which another organisation is affliated which supported underage sex,is that right?
More to it than that, particularly in Harman's case
Attacking Labour over paedophilia seems like a risky strategy for the establishment. Its not like its a one party problem, and the suggestion is that the tentacles reached into all parties. Let's put it like this. The former cabinet ministers whose names I keep reading about in connection with this didn't wear red rosettes. But I have no doubt that Labour people are involved too, as are/were senior cops judges and newspaper people.
Or we can all shriek at various half/fully dead "celebs" and pretend it was only them....
I've heard those names and they are equally as grotesque if true, but the Mail have named serving MP's
Comments
Did we beat the Romans that year in the the Six Nations ?
He's had something like 10 assists in the last month
Cardiff look like certainties to go down.
Cissokho reminds me of Djimi Traore and that's never good. If City are willing to offer £12m for Skrtel, we should accept it.
Their worst striker is better than Chelsea's best, if Chelsea had Aguerro coming back then they would win it, but we are stuck with Torres Eto'o and Ba, with him now fit City will win it by three points.
Lord Sugar@Lord_Sugar·1h
With prospect of playing Chelsea ,Arsenal and Liverpool in next few games. Some might say with the loss at Norwich. Spurs season is over
I backed Norwich to win today and Emmanuel as FGS.
Cardiff don't tempt me, even at 19/2 to win at the Lane.
Nailed on Spurs win next weekend.
(And I'm going to back you to win on Thursday)
You have an amazing knack of having winning bets after the event!
Not really, I tip a lot of my bets beforehand on here.
I've been busy this weekend, or would have posted them on here.
As Scrapheap can attest, a lot of my winning bets this year have involved Spurs matches.
If you tip them on here here before hand that's fair enough and I have seen a good few of them, but posting after the event is not good. I have a 20/1 in play at the moment that I wouldn't dream of gloating about on here if it wins.
I was trying to cheer up Scrapheap that I can't see anything other than a Spurs win next Sunday.
Cardiff look like certainties to go down.
Agree with you, and it serves them right for sacking a thoroughly decent man, also I cannot stand Solskjaer. Think Fulham are doomed as well.
I was at the Hull match yesterday and I think it was the most shambolic performance I've seen from Cardiff in many years. There are rights and wrongs over Mackay's sacking but OGS appears to be well out of his depth. Whilst hope springs eternal there is little chance for us and I cannot see any way an average Spurs side will not have a comfortable win Sunday.
I've already put Ynys Mon on the shortlist as one of the two Welsh seats in the JackW Dozen for the GE. My concern is that it's clearly a seat outside of the norm for a reasonable cross-section of GB seats that will determine the election.
This is not a prediction, mind, merely a suggestion of what to look for.
The Scottish Westminster MPs would be disenfranchised and surely a bill would have to be laid before parliament to enable that to take place. That could take awhile.
Postponement by a year to indy day would solve a lot of problems as we've discussed before. But I don't recall that anyone ever actually confirmed there was any legal problem with the postponement per se, which is specifically what I am asking about.
The EU thing is not such an issue as the Scots could get a provisional application going the day after the yes vote. (Such things are as fudge-able as a sweetie shop full of tablet.)
Firstly. http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/nato_countries.htm
Secondly my post doesn't suggest anyone is going to war. As I stated its a precautionary measure because of a fear of some kind of action, not that one is coming. It is, however, of note that they have bothered as frontline states.
Thirdly any country facing the possibility of such a regional issue will want to keep itself on top of things. Security Services & militaries go on alerts of one kind or another, whether on a large or small scale with reasonable regularity.
The optics would be terrible for them, there'd be protests in the streets with people saying they had no mandate.
Nick Sutton @suttonnick 15m
Monday's Daily Mail front page - "How much longer can paedophilia apologists stay silent" #tomorrowspaperstoday
pic.twitter.com/rCbKh0ISoz
Since "18 months" is as well thought through as "currency union" or "automatic EU membership" what remote justification can there be for such a delay? Salmond knew well the UK electoral cycle when he set the date for Indyref - so one man gets to decide when 92% of the UK gets to chose a new government?
Background on Parliamentary terms:
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201011/ldselect/ldconst/69/6905.htm
On Scotland, even if Independence does pass, and present polls still suggest a clear No, as has been repeatedly pointed out it would hardly be Armageddon for Labour. Blair and Attlee would have won ALL their elections without Scotland and Wilson 2/4 of his (and in 1964 Home was ironically a Scot and Wilson English, while in Feb 1974 a Heath re-election would have meant no PM Thatcher, so even more ironically it was the Scots who gave us Thatcher!)
Surely the headline should be, - 'How much longer can the Mail keep flogging this story??
Unless of course the Mail has another card to play...
As I've said before, that's the real killer for the Tories. Obviously they're absolutely nowhere in the highly urbanised inner cities, but they got slaughtered in those types of seats even in the 80s but that didn't stop them from winning because they managed to sweep the board virtually everywhere else. But, gradually over the past 20 years, anti-Toryism has been spreading from just the inner cities out into the affluent suburbs.
By the way, meant to say it before, but I think TLBS is a great addition to the site - an even-tempered intelligent leftie and always worth reading, like Sean Fear and Richard Tyndall on the right. What is the significance of the name?
Hasn`t the Mail got things to report on todays` news rather than imagined scandals of 40 years ago.A national institution is becoming a laughing stock.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2565661/Seven-British-ski-instructors-arrested-armed-police-France-giving-lessons-without-licence-Piste-War-breaks-slopes.html
UKIP arguing in that a country should not be allowed to set their own employment rules, but should be disallowed from discriminating against other EU citizens? I think that comes in the 'You couldn't make it up' category!
@Nick - a generous remark. Thanks.
The direct involvement of the Labour politicians the Mail is going after seems pretty peripheral (I haven't seen anything to suggest they actively advocated these policies, I suspect the worst they can be accused of is "didn't speak out against them") - but, as you observe, it's a very long time ago.....
Certainly required reading - thanks for the link.
If they dig further into this they will find a massive can of worms involving MP's of all sides, for example Hewitt was in charge of child are in Islington when a massive scandal erupted, Jason Swift was in care in Islington.
Much as I don't want to be seen as a nutjob like Ickes, he was right about a lot of things. Anyone in the know knew about Savile and young girls but only Icke outed him as a necrophiliac.
This whole thing has massive implications for the establishment.
Meanwhile, here's another scandal that happened " a long time ago", but a participant in the cover-up is still in a prominent position in a public corporation.
No wonder the BBC isn't following up this particular story.
http://politicalscrapbook.net/2012/10/john-simpson-alleges-sex-abuse-cover-up-at-bbc/
Tony Blair showed he had a dark sense of humour by making her Minister for Children.
An elegy to Liverpool...
If this is an imagined scandal then the protagonists have nothing to worry about and will seek to defend themselves, possibly with libel action. Why haven't they yet done so?
By dismissing this out of hand as you have just done implicates you as complicit in that as they are part of the party you support it must be imagined and nothing more than muckraking by the 'laughing stock'.
Did you say the same when they exposed the Stephen Lawrence killers?
Nevertheless the Mail is running this story for the third or fourth day with little additional news.They just keep writing the same thing over and over again.I think an article in the Guardian may have prompted today`s headline though.
Out of interest do you think this should be investigated further or should it just be dropped as it may be awkward for Labour?
Kent and Essex very interesting. 'White flight' and relatively poor labour organisation should help the Tories (and or ukip) but benefits cap is likely to force out poor (and minority) Londoners to places like Harlow, Thurrock and the Medway towns. This is clearly happening in Harlow. Labour hasn't selected particularly Essex friendly candidates in Harlow and Thurrock (Polly and Susie) don't know about Medway. Locally labour has done ok in the Essex councils but poorly in kent apart from Gravesham. They will struggle I think to pick up more than a couple (or even that) of kent seats.
Thurrock - Con maj 92 votes
Dover - Con maj 5k
South Basildon - Con maj 5.5k
Chatham - Con maj 6k
S Thanet - Con maj 7.5k
Gillingham - Con maj 8.5k
Gravesham - Con maj 9k
Rochester - Con maj 10k
Dartford - Con maj 10.5k
Sittingbourne - Con maj 12k
Basildon - Con maj 12k
Clacton - 12k
The problem is the LDs were generally not that strong in these seats. For example Labour would have to win pretty much the entire LD vote in S Basildon to overcome the majority without Con-lab or Con-UKIP switchers.
Interestingly only the top 4 above are on Labour's target list and Watford is higher up than Dover
Spain not playing Gib isn't due to political reasons - Spain are just scared of losing*
* May contain traces of lie
Or we can all shriek at various half/fully dead "celebs" and pretend it was only them....
1. Do not employ children
2. Do not look after children
3. Do not have children in an audience
4. Do not have children as guests.
This gives them a completely free hand in attacking churches, local government and political parties.
There is no counter-play for those attacked to use. They just have to sit there and take it.