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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s “Get Clegg” decapitation strategy fails to impress
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s “Get Clegg” decapitation strategy fails to impress punters. He remains an 80pc chance to retain Hallam
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First, it was Scotland, where the Tories became The English Party.
Then, it was the North. Two MPs for half a million votes and then complaining that the electoral system favours Labour despite wasting so many votes.
Then, getting chucked out of all major northern conurbations.
Now, even in South Yorkshire, the Tories are being offered the third spot in a seat they had occupied for a hundred years [ and, which Labour have never won ]
The Tories are migrating to the South. Soon they will be in Spain !!
Best current prices:
Yes 7/2 (Betfair, Ladbrokes)
No 1/4 (Paddy Power, William Hill)
England 1/2 (Coral)
Ireland 14/1 (Ladbrokes, Hills)
Scotland 40/1 (bwin)
Wales 40/1 (bwin, SkyBet)
Northern Ireland 40/1 (bwin, SkyBet)
Gibraltar 5000/1 (BetFred)
Germany 4/1
Spain 9/2
France 8/1
Italy 11/1
Netherlands 12/1
Belgium 14/1
England 14/1
Portugal 16/1
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5451102/labour-target-nick-cleggs-seat-in-2015.html
And as us seasoned Labour watchers can tell you, if it that particular organ says it's from Labour, then it's from high up in Labour.
Did this train journey today. Got within about 20 miles of Burma:
http://www.seat61.com/Bridge-on-the-River-Kwai.htm#tourist railcar
LD 40, Labour 25, Tories 20 and UKIP 15.
Notwithstanding many Tories would switch to him.
Clegg should be 99% favourite to win.
Scottish referendum: Salmond offers the independence of a granny flat
It would be a strange sort of freedom in which all the decisions that matter are made in London
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/feb/23/scottish-referendum-salmond-independence-oil
... Mr Barroso's vice president for justice, fundamental rights and citizenship, Viviane Reding, today said Scotland was "nothing like Kosovo".
European Commission spin doctors have already tried to backtrack from Mr Barroso's remarks, stressing the Portuguese Conservative's remarks were not a "perfect analogy".
... She told Barcelona daily La Vanguardia: "Because Kosovo did not leave a country that was a member state of the European Union, it can't be compared."
In her interview Ms Reding made it clear she did not want to see the European Union shed any territory if parts of member states were to go independent.
"I do not want to lose Catalonia," she told the paper.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/vice-president-of-european-commission-dismisses-comparision-between-scotlan.1393169824
Remember that the yellow pox insist they can do well because of Eastleigh - a stronghold seat where having poured in every activist they have they lost a mere 17% of their share. As long as every seat defended is still rammed full of LD councillors who survived the annual May cull and they can simultaneously flood every seat with every activist I'm sure they will do fine. Or in the real world if they have to actually defend Hallam they really are sunk.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ukraine_census_2001_Ukrainians.svg
Map of election results 2012:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ukr_elections_2012_multimandate_okruhs.png
Meanwhile back on planet earth against normal trends Eastleigh was retained by a governing party in mid-term and Scotland have won a rugby match - Both rare events but much to be applauded all the same.
I mean what could go wrong... you stated it as fact.
I do like Peter Hitchens. He and I agree on almost nothing - yet he is an excellent writer and is nobody's minion. A truly independent voice.
"Si Escocia decidiera independizarse debería presentar una solicitud como nuevo Estado para sumarse a la UE. "
Which means; If Scotland decides on independence, she will have to make a request for membership of the EU like any other new State.
Bet is still valid if Scotland secedes, Scottish votes in that case will not be counted either at 2010 or 2015
You then come in with a ridculous bet ! I wanted a re-confirmation.
Now you are backing out by bringing in the whole country.
Who mentioned the UK ? We were talking about Sheffield Hallam and then Central and now you are talking about the UK !!
Which is why Eastleigh is a curio rather than a repeatable strategy.
Even so, today's "gold standard" ICM shows:
Yes 43%
No 57%
That suits us just fine at this stage. We are over 6 months out Sean. I wouldn't like you to shoot your load before the main attraction.
The 'No' camp argued that Scotland would need to reapply - and would probably lose a lot of the concessions that the UK has won over the years (rebate, etc) in the entry negotiations.
Salmond claimed it was automatic - Reding has clearly stated that it isn't: Scotland will need to apply like any new state (in practice, I am sure that they will be fast-tracked provided that they they are amenable in negotiations)
PB Unionists:
No is ahead by 30pts, Yes can't win
No is ahead by 20pts, Yes can't win
No is ahead by 10pts, Yes can't win
I think I'm sensing a pattern.
Really? You mean you would not prefer to be in the opposite position, with a big lead?
Not that the 'no' lead cannot be overtaken, but considering many accuse Better Together of complacency, it does seem rather, well, complacent.
Yes 44% (+1)
No 56% (-1)
I wonder how he managed that?
Hmm. The mood music is pretty strongly in favour of Mercedes (engine generally and team specifically). Rosberg's down to 7 on Ladbrokes. Magnussen has fallen from 51 to 13.
Red Bull's problems appear to be both car and engine. Reliability could be a bit rubbish and power-wise they may have a deficit of 150bhp, which will screw them in qualifying. Engine efficiency could be their forte, however.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/02/second-post-currency-row-poll-still-no-clear-impact/
some other interesting comments there, incl the impact on Labour voters of wheeling Mr Osborne out ...
Several Conservatives on here have said that they think it is getting late to reverse a small (5-10%) point deficit in the next thirteen months before the GE; you seem not to be worried that you have a worse position to overhaul in seven.
You may do it. But it doesn't half seem complacent to say the current situation suits you just fine.
I'm also not sure what 'you lot' you think I am part of.
Yes behind by 10 Yes will win
Yes behind by 20 Yes will win
Yes behind by 30 Yes will win
A clear pattern of heart ruling head , Yes is toast pretty much burnt .
I think we've at least dispensed with the meme that the referendum is a drag and uninteresting to the majority of (Scottish) folk; the next 7 months is going to be a hell of a ride.
Same old, same old.
http://www.lavanguardia.mobi/#component=54401637479&index=1&page=component1
Anyone who can read Spanish will discover that she stated unequivocally, once again, that any territory that secedes from an EU member state automatically leaves the EU and has to apply to become a new member. Scotland would not secede from the UK until the day it becomes independent, so that's when the process to join can begin.
See the header for details.
At the time Athens had their boot on the throat of Sparta, only to choose to go into a needless conflict in Sicily. They came fairly close to victory but were crushingly defeated, and Sparta lived to fight another day, eventually winning the war. [Spartan power was brief as Thebes kicked their arses at two battles, until they betrayed King Philip of Macedon and discovered that was a shockingly stupid thing to have done].
His problem is that neither scenario is an attractive one to him politically. He has no choice but to carry on avoiding going into any detail.
I wonder what the voters who gave labour 40 seats in Scotland at the last election will think about Ed's decision to take exactly the same line as the hated tories.
It's almost a perfect comparison of the Iraq War. If Blair/Bush/Athens had focused on Afghanistan/Sparta instead of needlessly attacking Iraq/Sicily then victory would've been far likelier. Instead two defeats were bought rather than a single triumph.
Edited extra bit: I can strongly recommend Thucydides' excellent history of the war, and Donald Kagan's fantastic single volume modern piece about it (festooned with great maps).
You allude to the LibDem base in defended seats. What has been striking is that in most of these seats the base remain in good order. Where they have struggled very badly is in seats where this is not the case - that is almost everywhere else.
Essentially the LibDem GE strategy is to focus entirely on about 75 of the 631 seats not held in Ulster or held by the Speaker and let the others wither on the vine.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26311828
Music to labour's ears!
So Stuart you would argue that Ed's decision to follow the hated tories hasn't damaged labour's cause there one iota?
If Scotland voted no Ed could still rely on his tribute of 40 troops in 2015?
The Lib Dem shares in by-elections where they have not been in contention are a good indicator of what could happen.
So the driver can take me safely through the gaps in the traffic! If he can get through, I can!