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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s “Get Clegg” decapitation strategy fails to impress

SystemSystem Posts: 12,214
edited February 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s “Get Clegg” decapitation strategy fails to impress punters. He remains an 80pc chance to retain Hallam

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  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    Why are there two new threads at the same time?
  • Why noit?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Does anyone know the precise boundaries of the constituency? When I lived in Sheffield some 20 years ago my house on the rougher side of Nether Edge was in Hallam for a while before being moved out to Sheffield Central. If the bulk of Hallam consists of the leafy West and South-West, Ranmoor, Totley, Dore, etc then Labour have absolutely no chance. However, for me, a lot depends on the constituency location of areas such as Crooks, Broomhill, Hunter's Bar and Eccleshall (all fertile territory for Labour I'd have thought).
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    The LDs have dominated the council elections since 2010, it's a hugely safe seat. And I'd offer 5/1 to anyone wanting to bet on them losing if the bookies weren't already on it. TBH I'm tempted to offer higher.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Why noit?

    Able Seaman IA .... I've just sighted the "Mary Celeste"

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited February 2014
    Which shadow cabinet member actually mentioned this "decapitation" strategy ? Or, is it something made up by Tories ?

    First, it was Scotland, where the Tories became The English Party.

    Then, it was the North. Two MPs for half a million votes and then complaining that the electoral system favours Labour despite wasting so many votes.

    Then, getting chucked out of all major northern conurbations.

    Now, even in South Yorkshire, the Tories are being offered the third spot in a seat they had occupied for a hundred years [ and, which Labour have never won ]

    The Tories are migrating to the South. Soon they will be in Spain !!
  • IndyRef market: SkyBet just cut their Yes price to 3/1 (from 7/2).

    Best current prices:

    Yes 7/2 (Betfair, Ladbrokes)
    No 1/4 (Paddy Power, William Hill)
  • Best prices - Euro 2016 - To win their group

    England 1/2 (Coral)
    Ireland 14/1 (Ladbrokes, Hills)
    Scotland 40/1 (bwin)
    Wales 40/1 (bwin, SkyBet)
    Northern Ireland 40/1 (bwin, SkyBet)
    Gibraltar 5000/1 (BetFred)
  • Best prices - Euro 2016 - Winner

    Germany 4/1
    Spain 9/2
    France 8/1
    Italy 11/1
    Netherlands 12/1
    Belgium 14/1
    England 14/1
    Portugal 16/1
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    I'd advise a LD hold even if Nick Clegg stood down. 1/4 on NO offers some value on the indyref IMO
  • tpfkar said:

    1/4 on NO offers some value on the indyref IMO

    Yikes! I hope that you are not a personal financial adviser.

  • surbiton said:

    Which shadow cabinet member actually mentioned this "decapitation" strategy ? Or, is it something made up by Tories ?

    The strategy was leaked to The Sun

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5451102/labour-target-nick-cleggs-seat-in-2015.html

    And as us seasoned Labour watchers can tell you, if it that particular organ says it's from Labour, then it's from high up in Labour.
  • surbiton said:

    The Tories are migrating to the South. Soon they will be in Spain !!

    Tories who emigrate to Spain are not 'immigrants'. They are 'expats'.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    tpfkar said:

    I'd advise a LD hold even if Nick Clegg stood down. 1/4 on NO offers some value on the indyref IMO

    25% guarateed return. Even the PPI wasn't so generous !
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    Which shadow cabinet member actually mentioned this "decapitation" strategy ? Or, is it something made up by Tories ?

    The strategy was leaked to The Sun

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5451102/labour-target-nick-cleggs-seat-in-2015.html

    And as us seasoned Labour watchers can tell you, if it that particular organ says it's from Labour, then it's from high up in Labour.
    So the truth teller is The Sun. What is the discount rate these days ?
  • surbiton said:

    tpfkar said:

    I'd advise a LD hold even if Nick Clegg stood down. 1/4 on NO offers some value on the indyref IMO

    25% guarateed return. Even the PPI wasn't so generous !
    Your definition of the word 'guaranteed' clearly differs from the generally accepted OED one.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    SD.. There are a lot of Scots living in Spain..
  • surbiton said:

    The Tories are migrating to the South. Soon they will be in Spain !!

    Tories who emigrate to Spain are not 'immigrants'. They are 'expats'.

    How crassly vulgar of those Tories in Spain. Posh boys like you are émigrés.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2014
    O/T:

    Did this train journey today. Got within about 20 miles of Burma:

    http://www.seat61.com/Bridge-on-the-River-Kwai.htm#tourist railcar

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    If I take the current national swings to Hallam, the result would still be:

    LD 40, Labour 25, Tories 20 and UKIP 15.

    Notwithstanding many Tories would switch to him.

    Clegg should be 99% favourite to win.
  • Russian national anthem absolutely epic at the Closing Ceremony!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Which shadow cabinet member actually mentioned this "decapitation" strategy ? Or, is it something made up by Tories ?

    The strategy was leaked to The Sun

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5451102/labour-target-nick-cleggs-seat-in-2015.html

    And as us seasoned Labour watchers can tell you, if it that particular organ says it's from Labour, then it's from high up in Labour.
    So the truth teller is The Sun. What is the discount rate these days ?
    Ask Ed. He's the one with the editor's number on speed-dial. (Or are you telling us you believed all that cr*p about Ed and his crusade against News International?)
    No one can accuse The Sun of being a friend of Labour. In case, you didn't know, The Sun is owned by Rupert Murdoch.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I bet Putin didn't expect to lose Ukraine while the Olympics were on.
  • Sorry to go OT so soon - but this is the best analogy I've read of the SNP's "independence" offer:

    Scottish referendum: Salmond offers the independence of a granny flat
    It would be a strange sort of freedom in which all the decisions that matter are made in London


    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/feb/23/scottish-referendum-salmond-independence-oil
  • SD.. There are a lot of Scots living in Spain..

    Quaint word Spain. I wonder how long we'll be needing it?
  • surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Which shadow cabinet member actually mentioned this "decapitation" strategy ? Or, is it something made up by Tories ?

    The strategy was leaked to The Sun

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5451102/labour-target-nick-cleggs-seat-in-2015.html

    And as us seasoned Labour watchers can tell you, if it that particular organ says it's from Labour, then it's from high up in Labour.
    So the truth teller is The Sun. What is the discount rate these days ?
    Ask Ed. He's the one with the editor's number on speed-dial. (Or are you telling us you believed all that cr*p about Ed and his crusade against News International?)
    No one can accuse The Sun of being a friend of Labour. In case, you didn't know, The Sun is owned by Rupert Murdoch.
    Unless, for some inexplicable reason, The Sun decided to invent a story about Labour going after Clegg's seat (why? what would that achieve?) then we can be sure that Labour leaked it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    I've taken £40 of 1/4 for Clegg here.
  • VP of European Commission dismisses comparision between Scotland and Kosovo

    ... Mr Barroso's vice president for justice, fundamental rights and citizenship, Viviane Reding, today said Scotland was "nothing like Kosovo".

    European Commission spin doctors have already tried to backtrack from Mr Barroso's remarks, stressing the Portuguese Conservative's remarks were not a "perfect analogy".

    ... She told Barcelona daily La Vanguardia: "Because Kosovo did not leave a country that was a member state of the European Union, it can't be compared."

    In her interview Ms Reding made it clear she did not want to see the European Union shed any territory if parts of member states were to go independent.

    "I do not want to lose Catalonia," she told the paper.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/vice-president-of-european-commission-dismisses-comparision-between-scotlan.1393169824
  • I'm fairly confident that the "strategy" is a tactic designed to draw LibDem activists into their strongholds. You don't waste resources campaigning to win hard seats when there are far easier ones to hit. Parliamentary majorities don't care which seats you win just how many.

    Remember that the yellow pox insist they can do well because of Eastleigh - a stronghold seat where having poured in every activist they have they lost a mere 17% of their share. As long as every seat defended is still rammed full of LD councillors who survived the annual May cull and they can simultaneously flood every seat with every activist I'm sure they will do fine. Or in the real world if they have to actually defend Hallam they really are sunk.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    AndyJS said:

    I bet Putin didn't expect to lose Ukraine while the Olympics were on.

    Something was guaranteed to happen during the Olympics although personally i was expecting a terrorist attack.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Closing ceremony today..invasion tomorrow .. busy week for Vlad..
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    edited February 2014
    AndyJS said:

    I bet Putin didn't expect to lose Ukraine while the Olympics were on.

    Map of Ukrainian language:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ukraine_census_2001_Ukrainians.svg

    Map of election results 2012:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ukr_elections_2012_multimandate_okruhs.png
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited February 2014
    Do others here in PB share my view that the Tories are in real trouble in the North, North West and Yorkshire ?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    I'm fairly confident that the "strategy" is a tactic designed to draw LibDem activists into their strongholds. You don't waste resources campaigning to win hard seats when there are far easier ones to hit. Parliamentary majorities don't care which seats you win just how many.

    Remember that the yellow pox insist they can do well because of Eastleigh - a stronghold seat where having poured in every activist they have they lost a mere 17% of their share. As long as every seat defended is still rammed full of LD councillors who survived the annual May cull and they can simultaneously flood every seat with every activist I'm sure they will do fine. Or in the real world if they have to actually defend Hallam they really are sunk.

    I'm fairly confident that the "strategy" is a tactic designed to give PBers a bloody good laugh at the expense of Labour supporters who still think Ed Balls is an economic guru and that Gordon Brown saved the world.

    Meanwhile back on planet earth against normal trends Eastleigh was retained by a governing party in mid-term and Scotland have won a rugby match - Both rare events but much to be applauded all the same.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Pulpstar said:

    I've taken £40 of 1/4 for Clegg here.

    You can spend the money.

  • I'm fairly confident that the "strategy" is a tactic designed to draw LibDem activists into their strongholds. You don't waste resources campaigning to win hard seats when there are far easier ones to hit. Parliamentary majorities don't care which seats you win just how many.

    Remember that the yellow pox insist they can do well because of Eastleigh - a stronghold seat where having poured in every activist they have they lost a mere 17% of their share. As long as every seat defended is still rammed full of LD councillors who survived the annual May cull and they can simultaneously flood every seat with every activist I'm sure they will do fine. Or in the real world if they have to actually defend Hallam they really are sunk.

    See the Labour majority in Sheffield Central...

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    I'm fairly confident that the "strategy" is a tactic designed to draw LibDem activists into their strongholds. You don't waste resources campaigning to win hard seats when there are far easier ones to hit. Parliamentary majorities don't care which seats you win just how many.

    Remember that the yellow pox insist they can do well because of Eastleigh - a stronghold seat where having poured in every activist they have they lost a mere 17% of their share. As long as every seat defended is still rammed full of LD councillors who survived the annual May cull and they can simultaneously flood every seat with every activist I'm sure they will do fine. Or in the real world if they have to actually defend Hallam they really are sunk.

    See the Labour majority in Sheffield Central...

    Even if the last 10% of Tories move over to the Lib Dems, Labour will still win comfortably. The Lib Dems will lose half of their votes at the next GE.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited February 2014
    surbiton said:

    I'm fairly confident that the "strategy" is a tactic designed to draw LibDem activists into their strongholds. You don't waste resources campaigning to win hard seats when there are far easier ones to hit. Parliamentary majorities don't care which seats you win just how many.

    Remember that the yellow pox insist they can do well because of Eastleigh - a stronghold seat where having poured in every activist they have they lost a mere 17% of their share. As long as every seat defended is still rammed full of LD councillors who survived the annual May cull and they can simultaneously flood every seat with every activist I'm sure they will do fine. Or in the real world if they have to actually defend Hallam they really are sunk.

    See the Labour majority in Sheffield Central...

    Even if the last 10% of Tories move over to the Lib Dems, Labour will still win comfortably. The Lib Dems will lose half of their votes at the next GE.
    like a bet on that ??? offer only to you .... IF I win you donate £100 to LUPUS UK, IF you win, I donate £50 to the charity of your choice as long as its completely A- political.
    I mean what could go wrong... you stated it as fact.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    I'm fairly confident that the "strategy" is a tactic designed to draw LibDem activists into their strongholds. You don't waste resources campaigning to win hard seats when there are far easier ones to hit. Parliamentary majorities don't care which seats you win just how many.

    Remember that the yellow pox insist they can do well because of Eastleigh - a stronghold seat where having poured in every activist they have they lost a mere 17% of their share. As long as every seat defended is still rammed full of LD councillors who survived the annual May cull and they can simultaneously flood every seat with every activist I'm sure they will do fine. Or in the real world if they have to actually defend Hallam they really are sunk.

    See the Labour majority in Sheffield Central...

    Even if the last 10% of Tories move over to the Lib Dems, Labour will still win comfortably. The Lib Dems will lose half of their votes at the next GE.
    like a bet on that ??? offer only to you .... IF I win you donate £100 to LUPUS UK, IF you win, I donate £50 to the charity of your choice as long as its completely A- political.
    I mean what could go wrong... you stated it as fact.
    What are we betting on exactly ? Labour winning ? Are you serious ?
  • @Caryx FPT

    I do like Peter Hitchens. He and I agree on almost nothing - yet he is an excellent writer and is nobody's minion. A truly independent voice.
  • Best prices - Euro 2016 - To win their group

    England 1/2 (Coral)
    Ireland 14/1 (Ladbrokes, Hills)
    Scotland 40/1 (bwin)
    Wales 40/1 (bwin, SkyBet)
    Northern Ireland 40/1 (bwin, SkyBet)
    Gibraltar 5000/1 (BetFred)

    Can anyone find a market to qualify? This meme about Scotland being given a hard group could be profitable for those of us who fancy them to fjnish a distant second - and thus qualify.
  • VP of European Commission dismisses comparision between Scotland and Kosovo

    ... Mr Barroso's vice president for justice, fundamental rights and citizenship, Viviane Reding, today said Scotland was "nothing like Kosovo".

    European Commission spin doctors have already tried to backtrack from Mr Barroso's remarks, stressing the Portuguese Conservative's remarks were not a "perfect analogy".

    ... She told Barcelona daily La Vanguardia: "Because Kosovo did not leave a country that was a member state of the European Union, it can't be compared."

    In her interview Ms Reding made it clear she did not want to see the European Union shed any territory if parts of member states were to go independent.

    "I do not want to lose Catalonia," she told the paper.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/vice-president-of-european-commission-dismisses-comparision-between-scotlan.1393169824

    Reding is quoted as saying;
    "Si Escocia decidiera independizarse debería presentar una solicitud como nuevo Estado para sumarse a la UE. "
    Which means; If Scotland decides on independence, she will have to make a request for membership of the EU like any other new State.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited February 2014
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    I'm fairly confident that the "strategy" is a tactic designed to draw LibDem activists into their strongholds. You don't waste resources campaigning to win hard seats when there are far easier ones to hit. Parliamentary majorities don't care which seats you win just how many.

    Remember that the yellow pox insist they can do well because of Eastleigh - a stronghold seat where having poured in every activist they have they lost a mere 17% of their share. As long as every seat defended is still rammed full of LD councillors who survived the annual May cull and they can simultaneously flood every seat with every activist I'm sure they will do fine. Or in the real world if they have to actually defend Hallam they really are sunk.

    See the Labour majority in Sheffield Central...

    Even if the last 10% of Tories move over to the Lib Dems, Labour will still win comfortably. The Lib Dems will lose half of their votes at the next GE.
    like a bet on that ??? offer only to you .... IF I win you donate £100 to LUPUS UK, IF you win, I donate £50 to the charity of your choice as long as its completely A- political.
    I mean what could go wrong... you stated it as fact.
    What are we betting on exactly ? Labour winning ? Are you serious ?
    Don't be obtuse. You come on here regularly trolling for Labour. You said "the Lib Dems will lose half their votes at the next GE". We know how many votes were cast in the GE (inc N Ireland votes) I say they wont lose half . Is that clear enough for you.
    Bet is still valid if Scotland secedes, Scottish votes in that case will not be counted either at 2010 or 2015
  • VP of European Commission dismisses comparision between Scotland and Kosovo

    ... Mr Barroso's vice president for justice, fundamental rights and citizenship, Viviane Reding, today said Scotland was "nothing like Kosovo".

    European Commission spin doctors have already tried to backtrack from Mr Barroso's remarks, stressing the Portuguese Conservative's remarks were not a "perfect analogy".

    ... She told Barcelona daily La Vanguardia: "Because Kosovo did not leave a country that was a member state of the European Union, it can't be compared."

    In her interview Ms Reding made it clear she did not want to see the European Union shed any territory if parts of member states were to go independent.

    "I do not want to lose Catalonia," she told the paper.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/vice-president-of-european-commission-dismisses-comparision-between-scotlan.1393169824

    Was always going to unravel Stuart - the idea that the EU would willfully refuse a country that would be in the top 20 richest countries on earth and a £1bn pa net contributor to re EU was always as incredible as it was absurd.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    I'm fairly confident that the "strategy" is a tactic designed to draw LibDem activists into their strongholds. You don't waste resources campaigning to win hard seats when there are far easier ones to hit. Parliamentary majorities don't care which seats you win just how many.

    Remember that the yellow pox insist they can do well because of Eastleigh - a stronghold seat where having poured in every activist they have they lost a mere 17% of their share. As long as every seat defended is still rammed full of LD councillors who survived the annual May cull and they can simultaneously flood every seat with every activist I'm sure they will do fine. Or in the real world if they have to actually defend Hallam they really are sunk.

    See the Labour majority in Sheffield Central...

    Even if the last 10% of Tories move over to the Lib Dems, Labour will still win comfortably. The Lib Dems will lose half of their votes at the next GE.
    like a bet on that ??? offer only to you .... IF I win you donate £100 to LUPUS UK, IF you win, I donate £50 to the charity of your choice as long as its completely A- political.
    I mean what could go wrong... you stated it as fact.
    What are we betting on exactly ? Labour winning ? Are you serious ?
    Don't be obtuse. You come on here regularly trolling for Labour. You said "the Lib Dems will lose half their votes at the next GE". WE know how many votes were cast in the GE (inc N Ireland votes) I say they wont lose half . Is that clear enough for you.
    Bet is still valid if Scotland secedes, Scottish votes in that case will not be counted either at 2010 or 2015
    Very clever ! Innocent Abroad mentioned Sheffield Central. I then respond that even if the Tories' 10% [ that is what they got in 2010 in Sheffield Central ] went over to the Liberal Democrats, the LD's would still lose.

    You then come in with a ridculous bet ! I wanted a re-confirmation.

    Now you are backing out by bringing in the whole country.

    Who mentioned the UK ? We were talking about Sheffield Hallam and then Central and now you are talking about the UK !!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337

    @Caryx FPT

    I do like Peter Hitchens. He and I agree on almost nothing - yet he is an excellent writer and is nobody's minion. A truly independent voice.

    I'd never heard of him before I came on PB - and never read him before today!

  • JackW said:

    Meanwhile back on planet earth against normal trends Eastleigh was retained by a governing party in mid-term and Scotland have won a rugby match - Both rare events but much to be applauded all the same

    Question is how you replicate the same trick at the GE. in Eastleigh they retained the seat - bravo - but lost a staggering volume of votes and having flooded the seat with every activist they have. Most seats being defended next year don't have a solid councillor base as Eastleigh had, nor will they benefit from every activist in the country campaigning there for a month.

    Which is why Eastleigh is a curio rather than a repeatable strategy.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    edited February 2014
    SeanT said:

    A long long debate about Scottish indyref, infested with Nats, yet, oddly, none of them mentions today's ICM poll showing a 5 point swing to No?

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-poll-yes-losing-momentum-1-3316371?utm_content=bufferc30e4&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    Interestingly, the new support for No comes from risk-averse undecideds being decided by the currency question. Which is what some of us on here precisely predicted: an initial emotional surge to Yes, followed by a return to No as doubts set in.

    According to John Curtice ICM have adjusted their methodology since their last poll, so not possible to directly compare.

    Even so, today's "gold standard" ICM shows:

    Yes 43%
    No 57%

    That suits us just fine at this stage. We are over 6 months out Sean. I wouldn't like you to shoot your load before the main attraction.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    SeanT said:

    A long long debate about Scottish indyref, infested with Nats, yet, oddly, none of them mentions today's ICM poll showing a 5 point swing to No?

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-poll-yes-losing-momentum-1-3316371?utm_content=bufferc30e4&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    Interestingly, the new support for No comes from risk-averse undecideds being decided by the currency question. Which is what some of us on here precisely predicted: an initial emotional surge to Yes, followed by a return to No as doubts set in.

    Obviously you did not read it , change of weighting. The other poll had NO down again.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    VP of European Commission dismisses comparision between Scotland and Kosovo

    ... Mr Barroso's vice president for justice, fundamental rights and citizenship, Viviane Reding, today said Scotland was "nothing like Kosovo".

    European Commission spin doctors have already tried to backtrack from Mr Barroso's remarks, stressing the Portuguese Conservative's remarks were not a "perfect analogy".

    ... She told Barcelona daily La Vanguardia: "Because Kosovo did not leave a country that was a member state of the European Union, it can't be compared."

    In her interview Ms Reding made it clear she did not want to see the European Union shed any territory if parts of member states were to go independent.

    "I do not want to lose Catalonia," she told the paper.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/vice-president-of-european-commission-dismisses-comparision-between-scotlan.1393169824

    Was always going to unravel Stuart - the idea that the EU would willfully refuse a country that would be in the top 20 richest countries on earth and a £1bn pa net contributor to re EU was always as incredible as it was absurd.
    Straw man, TLBS.

    The 'No' camp argued that Scotland would need to reapply - and would probably lose a lot of the concessions that the UK has won over the years (rebate, etc) in the entry negotiations.

    Salmond claimed it was automatic - Reding has clearly stated that it isn't: Scotland will need to apply like any new state (in practice, I am sure that they will be fast-tracked provided that they they are amenable in negotiations)
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    JackW said:

    Meanwhile back on planet earth against normal trends Eastleigh was retained by a governing party in mid-term and Scotland have won a rugby match - Both rare events but much to be applauded all the same

    Question is how you replicate the same trick at the GE. in Eastleigh they retained the seat - bravo - but lost a staggering volume of votes and having flooded the seat with every activist they have. Most seats being defended next year don't have a solid councillor base as Eastleigh had, nor will they benefit from every activist in the country campaigning there for a month.

    Which is why Eastleigh is a curio rather than a repeatable strategy.
    The Liberal Democrats will win about 40 seats even if their current dire voting numbers continue until 2015. The more time goes by, I am beginning to believe that their numbers will not go north of 13%. Even two months back, I would have said 15%. Nonetheless, there are enough Labour supporters in many of these seats who will vote LD to keep the Tories out.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    edited February 2014
    SeanT said:

    A long long debate about Scottish indyref, infested with Nats, yet, oddly, none of them mentions today's ICM poll showing a 5 point swing to No?

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-poll-yes-losing-momentum-1-3316371?utm_content=bufferc30e4&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    Interestingly, the new support for No comes from risk-averse undecideds being decided by the currency question. Which is what some of us on here precisely predicted: an initial emotional surge to Yes, followed by a return to No as doubts set in.

    Oh good, thanks, I missed that as I normally ignore the Scotsman. Some interesting stuff there as well, including the fact that lots of people think that Messrs Osborne and Barroso were talking mince (not incompatible with your own conclusion of course). Not clear from the piece what the precise comparator is for the 'increase' to 49% No but as this is somewhat against recent and current trend I will wait to see a few more polls, or some kind person will look into the detail or Dr Curtice will talk about it tomorrow on Scotland Thinks ...

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    SeanT said:

    A long long debate about Scottish indyref, infested with Nats, yet, oddly, none of them mentions today's ICM poll showing a 5 point swing to No?

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-poll-yes-losing-momentum-1-3316371?utm_content=bufferc30e4&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    Interestingly, the new support for No comes from risk-averse undecideds being decided by the currency question. Which is what some of us on here precisely predicted: an initial emotional surge to Yes, followed by a return to No as doubts set in.

    According to John Curtice ICM have adjusted their methodology since their last poll, so not possible to directly compare.

    Even so, today's "gold standard" ICM shows:

    Yes 43%
    No 57%

    That suits us just fine at this stage. We are over 6 months out Sean. I wouldn't like you to shoot your load before the main attraction.
    Stuart, he has done many time already.
  • VP of European Commission dismisses comparision between Scotland and Kosovo

    ... Mr Barroso's vice president for justice, fundamental rights and citizenship, Viviane Reding, today said Scotland was "nothing like Kosovo".

    European Commission spin doctors have already tried to backtrack from Mr Barroso's remarks, stressing the Portuguese Conservative's remarks were not a "perfect analogy".

    ... She told Barcelona daily La Vanguardia: "Because Kosovo did not leave a country that was a member state of the European Union, it can't be compared."

    In her interview Ms Reding made it clear she did not want to see the European Union shed any territory if parts of member states were to go independent.

    "I do not want to lose Catalonia," she told the paper.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/vice-president-of-european-commission-dismisses-comparision-between-scotlan.1393169824

    Was always going to unravel Stuart - the idea that the EU would willfully refuse a country that would be in the top 20 richest countries on earth and a £1bn pa net contributor to re EU was always as incredible as it was absurd.
    Please don't point out blindingly obvious things that any rational, sane, common sense chap can spot in a moment. The donkeys around here don't like it. Not one bit.
  • SeanT said:

    A long long debate about Scottish indyref, infested with Nats, yet, oddly, none of them mentions today's ICM poll showing a 5 point swing to No?

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-poll-yes-losing-momentum-1-3316371?utm_content=bufferc30e4&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    Interestingly, the new support for No comes from risk-averse undecideds being decided by the currency question. Which is what some of us on here precisely predicted: an initial emotional surge to Yes, followed by a return to No as doubts set in.

    According to John Curtice ICM have adjusted their methodology since their last poll, so not possible to directly compare.

    Even so, today's "gold standard" ICM shows:

    Yes 43%
    No 57%

    That suits us just fine at this stage. We are over 6 months out Sean. I wouldn't like you to shoot your load before the main attraction.

    PB Unionists:
    No is ahead by 30pts, Yes can't win
    No is ahead by 20pts, Yes can't win
    No is ahead by 10pts, Yes can't win

    I think I'm sensing a pattern.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    Carnyx said:

    SeanT said:

    A long long debate about Scottish indyref, infested with Nats, yet, oddly, none of them mentions today's ICM poll showing a 5 point swing to No?

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-poll-yes-losing-momentum-1-3316371?utm_content=bufferc30e4&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    Interestingly, the new support for No comes from risk-averse undecideds being decided by the currency question. Which is what some of us on here precisely predicted: an initial emotional surge to Yes, followed by a return to No as doubts set in.

    Oh good, thanks, I missed that as I have normally ignore the Scotsman. Some interesting stuff there as well, including the fact that lots of people think that Messrs Osborne and Barroso were talking mince (not incompatible with your own conclusion of course). Not clear from the piece what the precise comparator is for the 'increase' to 49% No but as this is somewhat against recent and current trend I will wait to see a few more polls, or some kind person will look into the detail or Dr Curtice will talk about it tomorrow on Scotland Thinks ...

    Carnyx, as per Stuart's post , down to change of weighting , does not take much to have the frothers on here salivating.
  • SeanT said:

    A long long debate about Scottish indyref, infested with Nats, yet, oddly, none of them mentions today's ICM poll showing a 5 point swing to No?

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-poll-yes-losing-momentum-1-3316371?utm_content=bufferc30e4&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    Interestingly, the new support for No comes from risk-averse undecideds being decided by the currency question. Which is what some of us on here precisely predicted: an initial emotional surge to Yes, followed by a return to No as doubts set in.

    According to John Curtice ICM have adjusted their methodology since their last poll, so not possible to directly compare.

    Even so, today's "gold standard" ICM shows:

    Yes 43%
    No 57%

    That suits us just fine at this stage. We are over 6 months out Sean. I wouldn't like you to shoot your load before the main attraction.

    PB Unionists:
    No is ahead by 30pts, Yes can't win
    No is ahead by 20pts, Yes can't win
    No is ahead by 10pts, Yes can't win

    I think I'm sensing a pattern.
    Please don't point out blindingly obvious things that any rational, sane, common sense chap can spot in a moment. The donkeys around here don't like it. Not one bit.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,461

    SeanT said:

    A long long debate about Scottish indyref, infested with Nats, yet, oddly, none of them mentions today's ICM poll showing a 5 point swing to No?

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-poll-yes-losing-momentum-1-3316371?utm_content=bufferc30e4&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    Interestingly, the new support for No comes from risk-averse undecideds being decided by the currency question. Which is what some of us on here precisely predicted: an initial emotional surge to Yes, followed by a return to No as doubts set in.

    According to John Curtice ICM have adjusted their methodology since their last poll, so not possible to directly compare.

    Even so, today's "gold standard" ICM shows:

    Yes 43%
    No 57%

    That suits us just fine at this stage. We are over 6 months out Sean. I wouldn't like you to shoot your load before the main attraction.
    "Suits you just fine"?

    Really? You mean you would not prefer to be in the opposite position, with a big lead?

    Not that the 'no' lead cannot be overtaken, but considering many accuse Better Together of complacency, it does seem rather, well, complacent.
  • I love how Sean noticed the ICM poll, but oddly managed to miss today's new Panelbase poll:

    Yes 44% (+1)
    No 56% (-1)

    I wonder how he managed that?
  • SeanT said:

    A long long debate about Scottish indyref, infested with Nats, yet, oddly, none of them mentions today's ICM poll showing a 5 point swing to No?

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-poll-yes-losing-momentum-1-3316371?utm_content=bufferc30e4&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    Interestingly, the new support for No comes from risk-averse undecideds being decided by the currency question. Which is what some of us on here precisely predicted: an initial emotional surge to Yes, followed by a return to No as doubts set in.

    According to John Curtice ICM have adjusted their methodology since their last poll, so not possible to directly compare.

    Even so, today's "gold standard" ICM shows:

    Yes 43%
    No 57%

    That suits us just fine at this stage. We are over 6 months out Sean. I wouldn't like you to shoot your load before the main attraction.
    "Suits you just fine"?

    Really? You mean you would not prefer to be in the opposite position, with a big lead?

    Not that the 'no' lead cannot be overtaken, but considering many accuse Better Together of complacency, it does seem rather, well, complacent.
    We only need to win one poll: the one being held at polling stations on 18 September. You lot can "win" every other poll you like. There is no booby prize.
  • Good evening, my fellow Britons.

    Hmm. The mood music is pretty strongly in favour of Mercedes (engine generally and team specifically). Rosberg's down to 7 on Ladbrokes. Magnussen has fallen from 51 to 13.

    Red Bull's problems appear to be both car and engine. Reliability could be a bit rubbish and power-wise they may have a deficit of 150bhp, which will screw them in qualifying. Engine efficiency could be their forte, however.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    SeanT said:

    A long long debate about Scottish indyref, infested with Nats, yet, oddly, none of them mentions today's ICM poll showing a 5 point swing to No?

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-poll-yes-losing-momentum-1-3316371?utm_content=bufferc30e4&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    Interestingly, the new support for No comes from risk-averse undecideds being decided by the currency question. Which is what some of us on here precisely predicted: an initial emotional surge to Yes, followed by a return to No as doubts set in.

    Oh good, thanks, I missed that as I have normally ignore the Scotsman. Some interesting stuff there as well, including the fact that lots of people think that Messrs Osborne and Barroso were talking mince (not incompatible with your own conclusion of course). Not clear from the piece what the precise comparator is for the 'increase' to 49% No but as this is somewhat against recent and current trend I will wait to see a few more polls, or some kind person will look into the detail or Dr Curtice will talk about it tomorrow on Scotland Thinks ...

    Carnyx, as per Stuart's post , down to change of weighting , does not take much to have the frothers on here salivating.
    Thanks to you and Mr Dickson - have found it

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/02/second-post-currency-row-poll-still-no-clear-impact/

    some other interesting comments there, incl the impact on Labour voters of wheeling Mr Osborne out ...

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    weird catch 22. you want them to lose because they're so annoying but they'll only go away if they win.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,337
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    A long long debate about Scottish indyref, infested with Nats, yet, oddly, none of them mentions today's ICM poll showing a 5 point swing to No?

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-poll-yes-losing-momentum-1-3316371?utm_content=bufferc30e4&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    Interestingly, the new support for No comes from risk-averse undecideds being decided by the currency question. Which is what some of us on here precisely predicted: an initial emotional surge to Yes, followed by a return to No as doubts set in.

    According to John Curtice ICM have adjusted their methodology since their last poll, so not possible to directly compare.

    Even so, today's "gold standard" ICM shows:

    Yes 43%
    No 57%

    That suits us just fine at this stage. We are over 6 months out Sean. I wouldn't like you to shoot your load before the main attraction.

    PB Unionists:
    No is ahead by 30pts, Yes can't win
    No is ahead by 20pts, Yes can't win
    No is ahead by 10pts, Yes can't win

    I think I'm sensing a pattern.
    Actually, the pattern is for the No lead to gently, cyclically and rather oddly erect and detumesce around an average of about 15.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-independence-referendum

    Sometimes it goes as high as 30, sometimes you get the odd Yes lead (by a point or two). But 15 is the approximate median. So we seem to be at the midpoint of the Scottish independence menstrual cycle.

    What? Like a chimpanzee's backside?

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,461

    SeanT said:

    A long long debate about Scottish indyref, infested with Nats, yet, oddly, none of them mentions today's ICM poll showing a 5 point swing to No?

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-poll-yes-losing-momentum-1-3316371?utm_content=bufferc30e4&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    Interestingly, the new support for No comes from risk-averse undecideds being decided by the currency question. Which is what some of us on here precisely predicted: an initial emotional surge to Yes, followed by a return to No as doubts set in.

    According to John Curtice ICM have adjusted their methodology since their last poll, so not possible to directly compare.

    Even so, today's "gold standard" ICM shows:

    Yes 43%
    No 57%

    That suits us just fine at this stage. We are over 6 months out Sean. I wouldn't like you to shoot your load before the main attraction.
    "Suits you just fine"?

    Really? You mean you would not prefer to be in the opposite position, with a big lead?

    Not that the 'no' lead cannot be overtaken, but considering many accuse Better Together of complacency, it does seem rather, well, complacent.
    We only need to win one poll: the one being held at polling stations on 18 September. You lot can "win" every other poll you like. There is no booby prize.
    Ah, so it *is* complacency.

    Several Conservatives on here have said that they think it is getting late to reverse a small (5-10%) point deficit in the next thirteen months before the GE; you seem not to be worried that you have a worse position to overhaul in seven.

    You may do it. But it doesn't half seem complacent to say the current situation suits you just fine.

    I'm also not sure what 'you lot' you think I am part of.
  • MrJones said:

    weird catch 22. you want them to lose because they're so annoying but they'll only go away if they win.

    Oh, I dunno, we might still pop up now and again post-independence. After all, I assume that the bookies and betting exchanges will still be posting prices regarding Scottish elections and politics, thus PB might be interested from time to time.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    SeanT said:

    A long long debate about Scottish indyref, infested with Nats, yet, oddly, none of them mentions today's ICM poll showing a 5 point swing to No?

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-poll-yes-losing-momentum-1-3316371?utm_content=bufferc30e4&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    Interestingly, the new support for No comes from risk-averse undecideds being decided by the currency question. Which is what some of us on here precisely predicted: an initial emotional surge to Yes, followed by a return to No as doubts set in.

    According to John Curtice ICM have adjusted their methodology since their last poll, so not possible to directly compare.

    Even so, today's "gold standard" ICM shows:

    Yes 43%
    No 57%

    That suits us just fine at this stage. We are over 6 months out Sean. I wouldn't like you to shoot your load before the main attraction.

    PB Unionists:
    No is ahead by 30pts, Yes can't win
    No is ahead by 20pts, Yes can't win
    No is ahead by 10pts, Yes can't win

    I think I'm sensing a pattern.
    PB Nats

    Yes behind by 10 Yes will win
    Yes behind by 20 Yes will win
    Yes behind by 30 Yes will win

    A clear pattern of heart ruling head , Yes is toast pretty much burnt .
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,147
    edited February 2014
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    A long long debate about Scottish indyref, infested with Nats, yet, oddly, none of them mentions today's ICM poll showing a 5 point swing to No?

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-poll-yes-losing-momentum-1-3316371?utm_content=bufferc30e4&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    Interestingly, the new support for No comes from risk-averse undecideds being decided by the currency question. Which is what some of us on here precisely predicted: an initial emotional surge to Yes, followed by a return to No as doubts set in.

    According to John Curtice ICM have adjusted their methodology since their last poll, so not possible to directly compare.

    Even so, today's "gold standard" ICM shows:

    Yes 43%
    No 57%

    That suits us just fine at this stage. We are over 6 months out Sean. I wouldn't like you to shoot your load before the main attraction.

    PB Unionists:
    No is ahead by 30pts, Yes can't win
    No is ahead by 20pts, Yes can't win
    No is ahead by 10pts, Yes can't win

    I think I'm sensing a pattern.
    Actually, the pattern is for the No lead to gently, cyclically and rather oddly erect and detumesce around an average of about 15.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-independence-referendum

    Sometimes it goes as high as 30, sometimes you get the odd Yes lead (by a point or two). But 15 is the approximate median. So we seem to be at the midpoint of the Scottish independence menstrual cycle.

    Not sure how to get my head round a conflation of tumescence and menses, but my point was the expressed certainty of No-ers seems a lot more sustained and unchanging than Yes-ers. I've never thought it was a done deal but I feel at least I can have a (very small) effect on the result through my own efforts.

    I think we've at least dispensed with the meme that the referendum is a drag and uninteresting to the majority of (Scottish) folk; the next 7 months is going to be a hell of a ride.
  • SeanT said:

    A long long debate about Scottish indyref, infested with Nats, yet, oddly, none of them mentions today's ICM poll showing a 5 point swing to No?

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-poll-yes-losing-momentum-1-3316371?utm_content=bufferc30e4&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    Interestingly, the new support for No comes from risk-averse undecideds being decided by the currency question. Which is what some of us on here precisely predicted: an initial emotional surge to Yes, followed by a return to No as doubts set in.

    According to John Curtice ICM have adjusted their methodology since their last poll, so not possible to directly compare.

    Even so, today's "gold standard" ICM shows:

    Yes 43%
    No 57%

    That suits us just fine at this stage. We are over 6 months out Sean. I wouldn't like you to shoot your load before the main attraction.

    PB Unionists:
    No is ahead by 30pts, Yes can't win
    No is ahead by 20pts, Yes can't win
    No is ahead by 10pts, Yes can't win

    I think I'm sensing a pattern.
    PB Nats

    Yes behind by 10 Yes will win
    Yes behind by 20 Yes will win
    Yes behind by 30 Yes will win

    A clear pattern of heart ruling head , Yes is toast pretty much burnt .
    Says the already torched Seniorista.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Second? Second last possibly!

    Best prices - Euro 2016 - To win their group

    England 1/2 (Coral)
    Ireland 14/1 (Ladbrokes, Hills)
    Scotland 40/1 (bwin)
    Wales 40/1 (bwin, SkyBet)
    Northern Ireland 40/1 (bwin, SkyBet)
    Gibraltar 5000/1 (BetFred)

    Can anyone find a market to qualify? This meme about Scotland being given a hard group could be profitable for those of us who fancy them to fjnish a distant second - and thus qualify.
  • Yet another CALAMITOUS result after playing a Europa League game just before it...

    Same old, same old.
  • The Vanguardia story about Viviane Reding discussed below is here:

    http://www.lavanguardia.mobi/#component=54401637479&index=1&page=component1

    Anyone who can read Spanish will discover that she stated unequivocally, once again, that any territory that secedes from an EU member state automatically leaves the EU and has to apply to become a new member. Scotland would not secede from the UK until the day it becomes independent, so that's when the process to join can begin.
  • I've just put a note on the header about an Oxford research project into PB. The researcher is looking for volunteers to take part in a survey.

    See the header for details.
  • Mr. T, not a perfect analogy as it was entirely voluntary (then again, Labour chose to go for devolution in a bid to create a permanent fiefdom) but the Sicilian expedition by the Athenians during the Peloponnesian War would be a reasonable comparison for your point.

    At the time Athens had their boot on the throat of Sparta, only to choose to go into a needless conflict in Sicily. They came fairly close to victory but were crushingly defeated, and Sparta lived to fight another day, eventually winning the war. [Spartan power was brief as Thebes kicked their arses at two battles, until they betrayed King Philip of Macedon and discovered that was a shockingly stupid thing to have done].
  • SeanT said:

    Moving on, do Nats really believe Salmond can go seven months without putting forward a costed, explicit Plan B on the currency issue?

    I can see why he is loathe to do it. Any detail at all just gives unionists something to aim at, and tear apart. Vagueness is his friend.

    But now Ed Miliband has expressly ruled out a sterling union, so the pressure is growing. Can Salmond busk it all the way to September with vague promises? Maybe he can. On this question the whole campaign will turn, as it will decide the undecideds.

    Alternatively, he could explain the degree of control over Scottish economic policy the rUK would need to agree to a currency union.

    His problem is that neither scenario is an attractive one to him politically. He has no choice but to carry on avoiding going into any detail.

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Now Ed Miliband has expressly ruled out a sterling union.

    I wonder what the voters who gave labour 40 seats in Scotland at the last election will think about Ed's decision to take exactly the same line as the hated tories.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    taffys said:

    Now Ed Miliband has expressly ruled out a sterling union.

    I wonder what the voters who gave labour 40 seats in Scotland at the last election will think about Ed's decision to take exactly the same line as the hated tories.

    Give him 40 seats again ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,952
    edited February 2014
    Mr. T, apologies for lack of clarity: the 'voluntary' reference was regarding *my* example of the Peloponnesian War.

    It's almost a perfect comparison of the Iraq War. If Blair/Bush/Athens had focused on Afghanistan/Sparta instead of needlessly attacking Iraq/Sicily then victory would've been far likelier. Instead two defeats were bought rather than a single triumph.

    Edited extra bit: I can strongly recommend Thucydides' excellent history of the war, and Donald Kagan's fantastic single volume modern piece about it (festooned with great maps).
  • SeanT said:


    As I am in a benign mood (a hint of spring down here in Cornwall), I will agree with that. It's a more interesting and tantalising contest than many anticipated.

    My focus now is on Labour. They must be worried, yet they will be loathe to expend energy on Scotland when they see Cameron as the real enemy. Yet they will have to attend to Scotland, because if they lose it they face a nightmare scenario. Yet precious time and money expended in Scotland might cripple efforts at the GE.

    I'm trying to think of a suitable analogy from military history. Perhaps Labour are Hitler, who was fatally but inevitably diverted into the Balkans, crucially delaying Operation Barbarossa. Arguably that lost him the whole war.

    I'd suggest an analogy with some kind of shoogly military alliance (Bettertogether) with Labour providing the manpower, Tories money, and Libdems, well who the **** knows what they're providing. Maybe US providing Lend Lease to the Soviets, and straight into the Cold War after 1945.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited February 2014

    JackW said:

    Meanwhile back on planet earth against normal trends Eastleigh was retained by a governing party in mid-term and Scotland have won a rugby match - Both rare events but much to be applauded all the same

    Question is how you replicate the same trick at the GE. in Eastleigh they retained the seat - bravo - but lost a staggering volume of votes and having flooded the seat with every activist they have. Most seats being defended next year don't have a solid councillor base as Eastleigh had, nor will they benefit from every activist in the country campaigning there for a month.

    Which is why Eastleigh is a curio rather than a repeatable strategy.
    No by-election is a repeatable strategy for a general election but that applies to all parties who flooded Eastleigh with activists and cash and the difference for the LibDems is that in Eastleigh they retain a strong local base in the seat where other parties will retreat.

    You allude to the LibDem base in defended seats. What has been striking is that in most of these seats the base remain in good order. Where they have struggled very badly is in seats where this is not the case - that is almost everywhere else.

    Essentially the LibDem GE strategy is to focus entirely on about 75 of the 631 seats not held in Ulster or held by the Speaker and let the others wither on the vine.

  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited February 2014

    I've just put a note on the header about an Oxford research project into PB. The researcher is looking for volunteers to take part in a survey.

    Interesting. Good. I've wondered on here occasionally whether someone academic shouldn't study our, um, blog-o-spherics.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Talking about a decapitation strategy would be a smart piece of political spin from the Lib Dems. I think it was said earlier this week that their own 2005 decap strategy against the Tories backfired because voters found it unseemly. Makes sense for Clegg to get out there as much as he can and talk about how he's the victim of this vicious stuff, although I'm sure Labour won't be silly enough to fihgt him on those terms.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Two people killed by a grenade in Thailand just a few hundred metres from the Kempinski hotel:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26311828
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    SeanT said:

    Moving on, do Nats really believe Salmond can go seven months without putting forward a costed, explicit Plan B on the currency issue?

    I can see why he is loathe to do it. Any detail at all just gives unionists something to aim at, and tear apart. Vagueness is his friend.

    But now Ed Miliband has expressly ruled out a sterling union, so the pressure is growing. Can Salmond busk it all the way to September with vague promises? Maybe he can. On this question the whole campaign will turn, as it will decide the undecideds.

    LOL, you are not all there, Ed Milliband. Stick to romcoms.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Essentially the LibDem GE strategy is to focus entirely on about 75 of the 631 seats not held in Ulster or held by the Speaker and let the othesr wither on the vine.

    Music to labour's ears!
  • MrJones said:

    weird catch 22. you want them to lose because they're so annoying but they'll only go away if they win.

    They are your opponents not your enemies - they are passionate opponents but calling them annoying denigrates debate.
  • SeanT said:


    As I am in a benign mood (a hint of spring down here in Cornwall), I will agree with that. It's a more interesting and tantalising contest than many anticipated.

    My focus now is on Labour. They must be worried, yet they will be loathe to expend energy on Scotland when they see Cameron as the real enemy. Yet they will have to attend to Scotland, because if they lose it they face a nightmare scenario. Yet precious time and money expended in Scotland might cripple efforts at the GE.

    I'm trying to think of a suitable analogy from military history. Perhaps Labour are Hitler, who was fatally but inevitably diverted into the Balkans, crucially delaying Operation Barbarossa. Arguably that lost him the whole war.

    I'd suggest an analogy with some kind of shoogly military alliance (Bettertogether) with Labour providing the manpower, Tories money, and Libdems, well who the **** knows what they're providing. Maybe US providing Lend Lease to the Soviets, and straight into the Cold War after 1945.
    I like your Allies analogy. Labour/Soviets, Tories/US, LibDems/UK. What does make the Nats ?

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    MrJones said:

    weird catch 22. you want them to lose because they're so annoying but they'll only go away if they win.

    Oh, I dunno, we might still pop up now and again post-independence. After all, I assume that the bookies and betting exchanges will still be posting prices regarding Scottish elections and politics, thus PB might be interested from time to time.

    or, another referendum in 40 years when the Scots will be brave enough and go for independence. Not some half cooked curry of a currency union with a country they are separating from.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    SeanT said:

    Moving on, do Nats really believe Salmond can go seven months without putting forward a costed, explicit Plan B on the currency issue?

    I can see why he is loathe to do it. Any detail at all just gives unionists something to aim at, and tear apart. Vagueness is his friend.

    But now Ed Miliband has expressly ruled out a sterling union, so the pressure is growing. Can Salmond busk it all the way to September with vague promises? Maybe he can. On this question the whole campaign will turn, as it will decide the undecideds.

    Alternatively, he could explain the degree of control over Scottish economic policy the rUK would need to agree to a currency union.

    His problem is that neither scenario is an attractive one to him politically. He has no choice but to carry on avoiding going into any detail.

    have yet to see any pronouncement on what will be outcome if they unexpectedly get a NO vote. Will any of the 3 get anything coherent and remotely believable out before the vote. Sure benefits cuts, more foodbanks , etc will be well received.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    Two people killed by a grenade in Thailand just a few hundred metres from the Kempinski hotel:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26311828

    Ouch. I had (an amazing) dinner there just 2 weeks ago.

    Stay away from all protest areas, esp at night.

    You are still far more likely to die in a Bangkok road accident than by bullet or bomb.
    Agree with the last sentence. That's what my relations there say.
  • SeanT said:

    surbiton said:

    taffys said:

    Now Ed Miliband has expressly ruled out a sterling union.

    I wonder what the voters who gave labour 40 seats in Scotland at the last election will think about Ed's decision to take exactly the same line as the hated tories.

    Give him 40 seats again ?
    They won't if Scotland votes Indy. All those Labour MPs will be gone for ever. Imagine.

    There must be people at Labour HQ who are, about now, getting serious cold sweats. If they aren't they are catastrophically complacent.
    As complacent as you?
  • malcolmg said:

    SeanT said:

    Moving on, do Nats really believe Salmond can go seven months without putting forward a costed, explicit Plan B on the currency issue?

    I can see why he is loathe to do it. Any detail at all just gives unionists something to aim at, and tear apart. Vagueness is his friend.

    But now Ed Miliband has expressly ruled out a sterling union, so the pressure is growing. Can Salmond busk it all the way to September with vague promises? Maybe he can. On this question the whole campaign will turn, as it will decide the undecideds.

    Alternatively, he could explain the degree of control over Scottish economic policy the rUK would need to agree to a currency union.

    His problem is that neither scenario is an attractive one to him politically. He has no choice but to carry on avoiding going into any detail.

    have yet to see any pronouncement on what will be outcome if they unexpectedly get a NO vote. Will any of the 3 get anything coherent and remotely believable out before the vote. Sure benefits cuts, more foodbanks , etc will be well received.

    The thing about Devomax is that it can't be Scotland-specific, it means a rework of everything. Independence is, in theory at least, a lot cleaner. If there is a No I'd expect big changes, but ones that have been discussed widely across the UK as a whole.

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    As complacent as you?

    So Stuart you would argue that Ed's decision to follow the hated tories hasn't damaged labour's cause there one iota?

    If Scotland voted no Ed could still rely on his tribute of 40 troops in 2015?

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    Two people killed by a grenade in Thailand just a few hundred metres from the Kempinski hotel:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26311828

    Ouch. I had (an amazing) dinner there just 2 weeks ago.

    Stay away from all protest areas, esp at night.

    You are still far more likely to die in a Bangkok road accident than by bullet or bomb.
    I had a ride on a motorcycle taxi a few days ago which included going on one of the freeways or whatever they're called It was exciting but I won't be doing it again: it was by far the most dangerous thing I've ever done.
  • taffys said:

    Essentially the LibDem GE strategy is to focus entirely on about 75 of the 631 seats not held in Ulster or held by the Speaker and let the othesr wither on the vine.

    Music to labour's ears!

    Exactly what I've been saying for a long time. The election is about seats not national aggregate vote shares.

    The Lib Dem shares in by-elections where they have not been in contention are a good indicator of what could happen.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,147
    edited February 2014

    SeanT said:


    As I am in a benign mood (a hint of spring down here in Cornwall), I will agree with that. It's a more interesting and tantalising contest than many anticipated.

    My focus now is on Labour. They must be worried, yet they will be loathe to expend energy on Scotland when they see Cameron as the real enemy. Yet they will have to attend to Scotland, because if they lose it they face a nightmare scenario. Yet precious time and money expended in Scotland might cripple efforts at the GE.

    I'm trying to think of a suitable analogy from military history. Perhaps Labour are Hitler, who was fatally but inevitably diverted into the Balkans, crucially delaying Operation Barbarossa. Arguably that lost him the whole war.

    I'd suggest an analogy with some kind of shoogly military alliance (Bettertogether) with Labour providing the manpower, Tories money, and Libdems, well who the **** knows what they're providing. Maybe US providing Lend Lease to the Soviets, and straight into the Cold War after 1945.
    I like your Allies analogy. Labour/Soviets, Tories/US, LibDems/UK. What does make the Nats ?

    I don't know Monica, what does make the Nats?
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    MrJones said:

    weird catch 22. you want them to lose because they're so annoying but they'll only go away if they win.

    They are your opponents not your enemies - they are passionate opponents but calling them annoying denigrates debate.
    they're not my opponents. i want them to win so they go away.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    Two people killed by a grenade in Thailand just a few hundred metres from the Kempinski hotel:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26311828

    Ouch. I had (an amazing) dinner there just 2 weeks ago.

    Stay away from all protest areas, esp at night.

    You are still far more likely to die in a Bangkok road accident than by bullet or bomb.
    I had a ride on a motorcycle taxi a few days ago which included going on one of the freeways or whatever they're called It was exciting but I won't be doing it again: it was by far the most dangerous thing I've ever done.
    Damn straight. The bike taxis are vastly quicker than cars, but also horribly dangerous. I hate them and only take them when desperate.
    I wouldn't use other than for short trips in the city. I'm about the same height as the average Thai, too, so my knees don't stick out like those of my 6ft Caucasian "brothers" do!

    So the driver can take me safely through the gaps in the traffic! If he can get through, I can!
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    JackW said:



    Essentially the LibDem GE strategy is to focus entirely on about 75 of the 631 seats not held in Ulster or held by the Speaker and let the others wither on the vine.

    But that's their strategy in EVERY election. And yet they still managed to lose 13 of their seats in the last election, when the general climate was much MUCH more favourable to them than it will be in 2015.
  • SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    surbiton said:

    taffys said:

    Now Ed Miliband has expressly ruled out a sterling union.

    I wonder what the voters who gave labour 40 seats in Scotland at the last election will think about Ed's decision to take exactly the same line as the hated tories.

    Give him 40 seats again ?
    They won't if Scotland votes Indy. All those Labour MPs will be gone for ever. Imagine.

    There must be people at Labour HQ who are, about now, getting serious cold sweats. If they aren't they are catastrophically complacent.
    As complacent as you?
    How the F am I complacent? I think Salmond could pull it off, and I am frustrated by the uselessness of Labour, who seem unable to perceive that they are staring down the barrel of a gun. Only now do we get an intervention from Miliband, for instance.

    I know Labour hate to agree with the Tories but that fact is, a Yes vote is apocalyptic for Labour - the loss of their great heartland. The damage will go way beyond the mere loss of MPs.

    I should add that I still expect No to win, but it is uncomfortably close.
    Labour won England at a canter in 1997 and 2001. Just sayin'.
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