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Bad news for backers and supporters of Ron DeSantis – politicalbetting.com
Bad news for backers and supporters of Ron DeSantis – politicalbetting.com
Yikes'Ryan Tyson, Mr. DeSantis’s longtime pollster and one of his closest advisers, has privately said to multiple people that they are now at the point in the campaign where they need to “make the patient comfortable,” a phrase evoking hospice care.' -The New York Times pic.twitter.com/4aQ9CgR07x
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Having decided to stand, he then surrounded himself with a bunch of total idiots as advisors, allowed his own team to be very aggressive online against mild criticism from natural supporters, and let a nothing story about his funny shoes run for a fortnight. Quite the fall from grace.
It will be interesting to see how the first few primaries run, with most of the money having already dried up apart from Trump and Haley.
Hmm. Does this open a path for Vivek Ramaswamy if Trump is disqualified from standing?
Occasionally honours go to someone who deserves them.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1850236/gerald-ronson-cbe-philanthropy-fraud-conviction
Erm, I think the Express has misread the honours list and Ronson is being knighted. He already has a CBE.
No wonder the companies are so keen to persuade the gullible they've developed some magic sauce.
The solution is now much more likely to involve reconstruction of the existing roads, or building new towns around autonomous transport with grade separations and traffic lights.
The recent testing by GM in California was halted by regulators, after a number of incidents involving both pedestrians and emergency vehicles. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/oct/24/driverless-car-self-driving-california-cruise-gm
Dominic CummingsBoris Johnson sacked him for standing up for his SpAds. He has already announced he will not seek re-election next year.My father-in-law will be choking on his porridge this morning when he hears that neighbouring farmer* Michael Eavis has been knighted.
(*Not a very good one according to FIL - 'never got the best value from his land'. I beg to differ.))
The amount spent on self-driving cars has been staggering, with very little to show for it - especially for those (like Google) who went for the all-or-nothing approach.
How long will investor's money continue to be thrown at it?
Some other manufacturers have taken more iterative approaches; developing things like good and reliable adaptative cruise control, lane detection and other systems, as driver aids, rather than going for full autonomy out of the box.
My belief has always been that the iterative approach would win over the big-bang approach of Tesla and Google.
One thing on which there seems to be a consensus is that rather than turning off supporters Trump is gaining from the various legal attacks on him. It is depriving everyone else on the GOP side of oxygen, it has allowed him to remain above the fray within the party rather than debating and it is making a lot of people angry that an "unelected official" thinks she can determine whether or not the choice of a major party is on the ballot or not.
This has, ironically, created a surge for Trump which is more significant than any slow decline in Biden's numbers but Biden is particularly struggling with black males and Hispanics, both essential parts of his 2020 coalition.
Or just those that aren't yet deployed?
Because the former really ought to be considered separately from the latter.
My new car isn't "autonomous" but it has many features that would have been considered incredible when my prior car was purchased just over a decade ago. Adaptive cruise control is a great pleasure to drive with. Automatic braking (besides within adaptive cruise control) isn't something I've had to use yet but could potentially save someone's life.
Other people's cars have more that mine lacks like self-parking, or lane control etc
If you're counting all those developments within the £100bn then that's rather misleading. If you're counting the "all or nothing" research then its completely different.
The Waymo testing in Phoenix is interesting, although they operate in heavily geofenced areas, and it'd be interesting to know the unit costs of the cars, given the sensors on them.
It's also something we have talked about quite a lot on here of late.
Biden's record on the economy is world leading but most Americans think the economy is a mess.
Biden's record on inflation is also very good but Americans think it isn't.
Biden's record on crime is incredible but most Americans think law and order is breaking down.
Even Biden's support for Israel and Ukraine is being questioned.
The picture painted in the US media is overwhelmingly and unfairly negative and seems to be turning incumbency into a disadvantage rather than a strength. Can this continue to the election?
And I don't think the unit cost of those cars is a very interesting thing to know. You wouldn't expect it to be profitable until they scale it up, the costs will come down when if and they do that, and costs will come down on their own over time, which they have as they won't be scaling it up for a while.
The most difficult bit, as we’ve discussed on here many times before, is where the technology can do most of the driving, but can and will disengage itself at short notice, meaning that the human needs to stay awake and alert at all times - something which humans find quite difficult, even the professional test drivers.
Meanwhile, that old favourite of new car technology, the Mercedes-Benz S-Class, has what looks to be the best system deployed so far in the new 2024 model, with very little hype. It’s a “Level 3” system up to 40mph, meaning the car drives itself and Mercedes are insured for any damage it causes. https://carbuzz.com/news/mercedes-announces-first-level-3-self-driving-for-s-class-and-eqs-sedan You can’t use it to drop the kids at school or collect you from the pub yet though, which is what most people think a self-driving car should be able to do, a taxi without the human driver.
Autonomous motorway driving is much more viable and will make life easier on long journeys, but we're not getting robo taxis anytime soon.
This may be why things keep going wrong for him. Even if Cummings is as bright as he believes (which I'm pretty sure he isn't) he has truly shocking judgement.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schooner_(glass)
*Why sensible cyclists ride at least a metre to the right of parked cars
GCMG: Justin Welby would have had a shown HMK had a sense of humour.
Doing an activity, like driving, for an hour requires a mostly low level but persistent level of concentration. Doing nothing for an hour while maintaining the alertness to be ready to act within seconds to avert a dangerous, potentially life-threatening, situation is far harder.
https://www.eetimes.com/studies-claim-software-drives-more-safely-than-humans/
I haven’t seen any similarly robust studies for anyone else.
(Joking obvs - just in case she's reading!)
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/schooner#
Thus far it is genius. It is how, in politics, to get things done.
Compare his fate with principled people. Rory, Saj, Grieve, Gauke, and lots of others.
Robert Blake on Lord George Bentinck.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-10-06/even-after-100-billion-self-driving-cars-are-going-nowhere (emphasis added)
One of the industry’s favorite maxims is that humans are terrible drivers. This may seem intuitive to anyone who’s taken the Cross Bronx Expressway home during rush hour, but it’s not even close to true. Throw a top-of-the-line robot at any difficult driving task, and you’ll be lucky if the robot lasts a few seconds before crapping out.
“Humans are really, really good drivers—absurdly good,” Hotz says. Traffic deaths are rare, amounting to one person for every 100 million miles or so driven in the US, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Even that number makes people seem less capable than they actually are. Fatal accidents are largely caused by reckless behavior—speeding, drunks, texters, and people who fall asleep at the wheel. As a group, school bus drivers are involved in one fatal crash roughly every 500 million miles. Although most of the accidents reported by self-driving cars have been minor, the data suggest that autonomous cars have been involved in accidents more frequently than human-driven ones, with rear-end collisions being especially common. “The problem is that there isn’t any test to know if a driverless car is safe to operate,” says Ramsey, the Gartner analyst. “It’s mostly just anecdotal.”
Waymo, the market leader, said last year that it had driven more than 20 million miles over about a decade. That means its cars would have to drive an additional 25 times their total before we’d be able to say, with even a vague sense of certainty, that they cause fewer deaths than bus drivers. The comparison is likely skewed further because the company has done much of its testing in sunny California and Arizona.
Labours plans for childcare, announced this week, reminded me of ‘The state is responsible for the upbringing of children’ section.
https://www.marxists.org/archive/kollonta/1920/communism-family.htm
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-67833766
Also worth noting that the same crowd who are pouring money into self driving cars are doing the same with Direct Air Capture.
it's the corner cases which cause the worst accidents because the developers will generally reply with 'I didn't even conceive of you using it that way'
Humans do quite a remarkable job of dealing with many of these on a daily basis, as well as very non-standard things for a computer such as getting out of the way of an ambulance, or dealing with temporary roadworks or obstruction with a man signalling to traffic.
The early driverless cars had to be programmed to identify a policeman in the road, and interpret what his or her signals might mean. And of course, police look and behave differently in different places, and even have multiple uniforms in the same place. To a human this is really easy, but not to a computer.
Especially for @TheScreamingEagles
Seen on FB.
Die Hard is not a Christmas Movie just because it is set at Christmas. It is a Christmas Movie because it is about a social obligation with a family member that you didn't want to participate in but spirals more and more into an unending nightmare.
But it did flag an interesting point. He is in his late 30s “establishing himself” on the comedy circuit.
He survives on £300 per month and feeds himself with food provided by food banks.
This is just an indication of why we need to be careful with statistics on food bank usage. He is clearly poor by any definition. However it’s a *lifestyle*choice - he is a trained electrician so could have a different job if he wanted.
You can certainly make the argument that society is better off because an individual can pursue the career he wants (no matter how realistic or not) but it does suggest it’s wrong to simply say “good bank usage up, everyone is starving, government bad”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12904033/Im-homeless-police-confiscated-campervan-INSIDE-going-auctioned-Ive-got-left.html
1. Other drivers
2. poor road markings
3. narrow roads where you have passing places
I have 'radar cruise control' on my car and mostly it works brilliantly in keeping me to the correct speed and distance behind the cars in front. there are a couple of spots where it doesn't recognise lanes because of poor markings and/or road repairs.
Yet in America, it really IS good. So what is happening? Are people who's lived experience is good being constantly gaslit to persuade them to ignore their senses? Is the good performance very spiky so that certain groups do amazingly well and others amazingly badly? What is going on?
Ideal.
As an example, a traffic jam on the motorway. I let the car drive. It has more cameras facing in more directions than I have eyeballs, and an AI algorithm constantly reading traffic. It doesn't get tired or distracted or risks anything stupid. Much safer than having me drive.
Around town? To start off with the UNECE regulations need to be heavily amended. Cars in Europe are heavily restricted about what they can do - as an example the radius of steering input they can make.
American Teslas practically drive themselves through urban environments. Ours have the same capability but can't use it. I don't want the car driving itself, but again the safety improvements from augmented drive could be significant.
I bet the answer is no.
Granted, this time's contest has a different dynamic, where there's a clearer divide between Trump and The Rest - but yes, it's still not the case that as candidate Not Trump A drops out, the support will redistribute to Not Trumps B-E; some will go to Trump himself, others may simply drift to abstentions.
That said, de Santis is still polling second in Iowa (a notoriously difficult state to poll, mind), and also second in national GOP primary polls. We shouldn't write him off just yet.
On the other hand, Trump remains top-side of 60% nationally, over 50% in Iowa, and less clearly-ahead in NH - but still clearly ahead. Unless something genuinely major (a heart attack, being locked up, SCOTUS actually 14th Amendmenting him) happens, he's cruising to the nomination.
If my maths is right with 99.9% reliability there will be 36 seconds out of the 36000 in which the system is unreliable. Imagine a million cars in city driving with 36 seconds of unreliability per X unit of time. That's 36,000,000 seconds. That's a lot of opportunities for trouble.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2023/12/29/russell-martin-rishi-sunak-prime-minister-southampton/
https://www.sparksdirect.co.uk/blog/new-energy-label-led-lamps-you-need-to-know
The reason is one of those quiet successes- light bulbs are unimaginably efficient compared to the old days, thanks to the invention of blue LEDs. That was being managed by adding A+, A++ and so on to the original scale. But as with GCSE A* grades, that was tipping into madness.
You can make a reasonable case for changing the scale, or for leaving it as it was. But running two parallel systems in what is still basically the same economic space isn't sensible.
There are going to be a lot of things like this for a while yet.
I would be delighted to be wrong.
The A++ system is the old system that existed in both the UK and EU for many years. The A to G system is the new system that is being introduced both in the UK and the EU.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-energy-labelling-of-products
for example, if you have a piece of road where the road markings are unclear or misleading, most human drivers will compensate but every one of the driverless cars would misinterpret it and potentially cause a crash.
if that bit of road is very busy it'd fail the 99.9% because of the inputs to the system rather than the car itself.