The View from South Africa – politicalbetting.com

System

The View from South Africa – politicalbetting.com

In a roseate African dusk a skinny teenager ignores the sliding pitch of the lark’s incessant call and shoulders a Mauser Model 1895 rifle. He squints down the crude iron sights, imagines himself to be Yevgeny Maximov and, between heartbeats as his grandfather has taught him, squeezes the trigger. The antique weapon bucks and roars in his hands leaving a choking cloud of white smoke and a ringing noise in his ears.The watermelon, placed on the corner of the verandah to act as a target for this adolescent feat of marksmanship, explodes in a gratifying explosion of moist pink chunks. Somewhere in the cool shadows of the house he hears his father’s urgent footsteps pounding across the blackwood floor.“What the bloody hell have you done now?” shouts his father.The boy shoulders the rifle and calmly awaits his chastisement. He has already won.

Read the full story here

DecrepiterJohnL

OT Twitter/X is still broken so how can I form an opinion on South Africa?

Foxy

Thanks for an interesting article. Its a while since I was last in RSA, probably 15 years.

I am more surprised that the coalition of the ANC has lasted so long than that parties like the EFF have arisen. After 30 years it remains a very economically divided society.

Foxy

This is a bizarre story. Presumably the offender is now in a women's prison..

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/dec/20/woman-jailed-posing-as-man-cambridge-crown-court

Fishing

Who'd have thought that a Marxist-inspired party run by incompetents and lionised by the Guardianista class would prove utterly incapable of building a decent society, stealing everything that isn't nailed down and ruining the rest?

The only surprise is that South Africa has just about held together as long as it has.

Taz

I wonder what happened to the Mauser.

Taz

I wonder if South Africa will go the way of Zimbabwe if there are full scale nationalisation/confiscation of assets and farms.

Daveyboy1961

Taz said:

I wonder what happened to the Mauser.

...was it chased away by the dog?....

Dura_Ace

Taz said:

I wonder what happened to the Mauser.

My grandfather sold the farms in the early 90s and moved his considerable arsenal to his house in Sea Point. He was convinced the whole place was going to go 'Life and Times of Michael K.' and he might be right eventually.

When he died of boredom in the mid 90s and we liquidated his estate I sold all his guns, including the Mauser, to a shady Serbian.

rcs1000

Taz said:

I wonder if South Africa will go the way of Zimbabwe if there are full scale nationalisation/confiscation of assets and farms.

I fear it is likely. Apartheid ended more than 30 years ago. And while life has become immeasurably better for a small black middle and ruling class, it has not meaningfully improved for most people.

Power cuts - aka load shedding - are a part of everyday life. That means traffic lights don't work. It means kids can't do their homework in the evening. It means night life is severely compromised.

No one considers South Africa when they are thinking about where to build a factory or a call center. Corruption is too endemic. Security is unknown. And costs are too high.

Only the export of coal and precious metals keeps South Africa alive.

ydoethur

Dura_Ace said:

Taz said:

I wonder what happened to the Mauser.

My grandfather sold the farms in the early 90s and moved his considerable arsenal to his house in Sea Point. He was convinced the whole place was going to go 'Life and Times of Michael K.' and he might be right eventually.

When he died of boredom in the mid 90s and we liquidated his estate I sold all his guns, including the Mauser, to a shady Serbian.

Now a Ruger 10/22 I believe?

https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3946644#Comment_3946644

Monksfield

Fishing said:

Who'd have thought that a Marxist-inspired party run by incompetents and lionised by the Guardianista class would prove utterly incapable of building a decent society, stealing everything that isn't nailed down and ruining the rest?

The only surprise is that South Africa has just about held together as long as it has.

I don’t think there’s any truth in the ANC being lionised by the Guardianista class. Mandela was, but that’s a different issue.

The problem of the ANC is that of all loose political coalitions built around narrow populism rather than consistent political intent and in much the same way these problems have infected others including the GOP, the Tory Party and the SNP. Broad populist platforms that paper over huge differences in social attitudes and political objectives cannot deal with complexity, the result is chaos which drives corruption and nepotism which in turn hinders effective governance.

In our age of social media and instant gratification, it’s easiest to pitch simple solutions. But they aren’t what we need.

DavidL

SA really doesn't seem to have benefited as it should have done from the surge in the price of commodities. Its growth is currently just over 2% which, although better than most of Europe including us, is on the low side given the rapidly growing population.

It is a good example of the importance of the rule of law for economic growth and stability. But we are an awful lot less interested in it since apartheid came to an end. My use of it has largely to point out that those who assume the hegemony of the SNP would be ended by independence are being naive. Political parties are very reluctant to outgrow their usefulness.

ydoethur

DecrepiterJohnL said:

OT Twitter/X is still broken so how can I form an opinion on South Africa?

Daily motion is still working:

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x64b8uq

Nigelb

“What the bloody hell have you done now?”

I would guess that's far from the only time you heard that ?

Good header, if a bit depressing.

rcs1000

Monksfield said:

Fishing said:

Who'd have thought that a Marxist-inspired party run by incompetents and lionised by the Guardianista class would prove utterly incapable of building a decent society, stealing everything that isn't nailed down and ruining the rest?

The only surprise is that South Africa has just about held together as long as it has.

I don’t think there’s any truth in the ANC being lionised by the Guardianista class. Mandela was, but that’s a different issue.

The problem of the ANC is that of all loose political coalitions built around narrow populism rather than consistent political intent and in much the same way these problems have infected others including the GOP, the Tory Party and the SNP. Broad populist platforms that paper over huge differences in social attitudes and political objectives cannot deal with complexity, the result is chaos which drives corruption and nepotism which in turn hinders effective governance.

In our age of social media and instant gratification, it’s easiest to pitch simple solutions. But they aren’t what we need.

Independence movements that become hegemonic political parties don't have great records.

Pluralism is an essential component of development, because it means voters can kick the buggers out, and that is a pretty good incentive for at least adequate performance.

rcs1000

rcs1000 said:

Monksfield said:

Fishing said:

Who'd have thought that a Marxist-inspired party run by incompetents and lionised by the Guardianista class would prove utterly incapable of building a decent society, stealing everything that isn't nailed down and ruining the rest?

The only surprise is that South Africa has just about held together as long as it has.

I don’t think there’s any truth in the ANC being lionised by the Guardianista class. Mandela was, but that’s a different issue.

The problem of the ANC is that of all loose political coalitions built around narrow populism rather than consistent political intent and in much the same way these problems have infected others including the GOP, the Tory Party and the SNP. Broad populist platforms that paper over huge differences in social attitudes and political objectives cannot deal with complexity, the result is chaos which drives corruption and nepotism which in turn hinders effective governance.

In our age of social media and instant gratification, it’s easiest to pitch simple solutions. But they aren’t what we need.

Independence movements that become hegemonic political parties don't have great records.

Pluralism is an essential component of development, because it means voters can kick the buggers out, and that is a pretty good incentive for at least adequate performance.

I guess Singapore - a city state which lucked out geographically - is the exception.

DavidL

rcs1000 said:

Monksfield said:

Fishing said:

Who'd have thought that a Marxist-inspired party run by incompetents and lionised by the Guardianista class would prove utterly incapable of building a decent society, stealing everything that isn't nailed down and ruining the rest?

The only surprise is that South Africa has just about held together as long as it has.

I don’t think there’s any truth in the ANC being lionised by the Guardianista class. Mandela was, but that’s a different issue.

The problem of the ANC is that of all loose political coalitions built around narrow populism rather than consistent political intent and in much the same way these problems have infected others including the GOP, the Tory Party and the SNP. Broad populist platforms that paper over huge differences in social attitudes and political objectives cannot deal with complexity, the result is chaos which drives corruption and nepotism which in turn hinders effective governance.

In our age of social media and instant gratification, it’s easiest to pitch simple solutions. But they aren’t what we need.

Independence movements that become hegemonic political parties don't have great records.

Pluralism is an essential component of development, because it means voters can kick the buggers out, and that is a pretty good incentive for at least adequate performance.

So what's our governments' excuse (both north and south of the border)?

TimS

Interesting article. I do wonder if SA, alongside the endemic poor governance, suffers from the same lonely outpost geography, far away from markets in the Southern Hemisphere, that besets Argentina and used to beset NZ.

It’s still got a functioning industrial economy for all that, more so than any other sub-Saharan economy. A number of my clients have factories, HQ functions or major subsidiaries there, far more than in Nigeria or Kenya.

Nigelb

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

Monksfield said:

Fishing said:

Who'd have thought that a Marxist-inspired party run by incompetents and lionised by the Guardianista class would prove utterly incapable of building a decent society, stealing everything that isn't nailed down and ruining the rest?

The only surprise is that South Africa has just about held together as long as it has.

I don’t think there’s any truth in the ANC being lionised by the Guardianista class. Mandela was, but that’s a different issue.

The problem of the ANC is that of all loose political coalitions built around narrow populism rather than consistent political intent and in much the same way these problems have infected others including the GOP, the Tory Party and the SNP. Broad populist platforms that paper over huge differences in social attitudes and political objectives cannot deal with complexity, the result is chaos which drives corruption and nepotism which in turn hinders effective governance.

In our age of social media and instant gratification, it’s easiest to pitch simple solutions. But they aren’t what we need.

Independence movements that become hegemonic political parties don't have great records.

Pluralism is an essential component of development, because it means voters can kick the buggers out, and that is a pretty good incentive for at least adequate performance.

I guess Singapore - a city state which lucked out geographically - is the exception.

You do occasionally get competent autocrats.
Korea's Park Chung Hee is arguably another example. Still S Korea's most popular president.
A very good economic manager despite the system's endemic corruption.

It also helped his popularity that he was assassinated, and succeeded by a couple of incompetent despots, who precipitated a successful democracy movement.

TimS

In local UK news we’re now 3 days into what will certainly be the most impressive sustained period of wind power dominating the grid to date.

Currently generating 21gw of power from wind, and only 2.6gw from any form of fossil fuel (CCGT).

rcs1000

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

Monksfield said:

Fishing said:

Who'd have thought that a Marxist-inspired party run by incompetents and lionised by the Guardianista class would prove utterly incapable of building a decent society, stealing everything that isn't nailed down and ruining the rest?

The only surprise is that South Africa has just about held together as long as it has.

I don’t think there’s any truth in the ANC being lionised by the Guardianista class. Mandela was, but that’s a different issue.

The problem of the ANC is that of all loose political coalitions built around narrow populism rather than consistent political intent and in much the same way these problems have infected others including the GOP, the Tory Party and the SNP. Broad populist platforms that paper over huge differences in social attitudes and political objectives cannot deal with complexity, the result is chaos which drives corruption and nepotism which in turn hinders effective governance.

In our age of social media and instant gratification, it’s easiest to pitch simple solutions. But they aren’t what we need.

Independence movements that become hegemonic political parties don't have great records.

Pluralism is an essential component of development, because it means voters can kick the buggers out, and that is a pretty good incentive for at least adequate performance.

So what's our governments' excuse (both north and south of the border)?

Oh, the same issue suffered by most of the developed world: political parties unwillingness to tell the truth to voters, because that isn't an election winning strategy.

rcs1000

TimS said:

Interesting article. I do wonder if SA, alongside the endemic poor governance, suffers from the same lonely outpost geography, far away from markets in the Southern Hemisphere, that besets Argentina and used to beset NZ.

It’s still got a functioning industrial economy for all that, more so than any other sub-Saharan economy. A number of my clients have factories, HQ functions or major subsidiaries there, far more than in Nigeria or Kenya.

I'm sure that plays a role.

On the other hand, English is widely spoken, the tertiary education system is excellent, and the time zone is convenient for Europe.

Now, sure, it's always going to be depending on commodity exports. But that's true of Australia too, and they've done ok.

Stuartinromford

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

Monksfield said:

Fishing said:

Who'd have thought that a Marxist-inspired party run by incompetents and lionised by the Guardianista class would prove utterly incapable of building a decent society, stealing everything that isn't nailed down and ruining the rest?

The only surprise is that South Africa has just about held together as long as it has.

I don’t think there’s any truth in the ANC being lionised by the Guardianista class. Mandela was, but that’s a different issue.

The problem of the ANC is that of all loose political coalitions built around narrow populism rather than consistent political intent and in much the same way these problems have infected others including the GOP, the Tory Party and the SNP. Broad populist platforms that paper over huge differences in social attitudes and political objectives cannot deal with complexity, the result is chaos which drives corruption and nepotism which in turn hinders effective governance.

In our age of social media and instant gratification, it’s easiest to pitch simple solutions. But they aren’t what we need.

Independence movements that become hegemonic political parties don't have great records.

Pluralism is an essential component of development, because it means voters can kick the buggers out, and that is a pretty good incentive for at least adequate performance.

So what's our governments' excuse (both north and south of the border)?

In the short to medium term, pretty much that.

2019 was an extreme case, sure- most of the parties in a race to be as self indulgent as possible, a race that the Conservatives lost so they ended up in government.

But there haven't been that many general elections where the UK electorate has really had the choice of two properly viable alternative governments. Normally one of the big two is either utterly Tonto (Conservatives in 2001/5, Labour in 1983) or clearly begging for the sweet release of death (Conservatives in 1997 and probably 2024, Labour in 2010).

Genuinely competitive elections in my voting lifetime? 1992 and 2015, and both of those are a bit of a stretch.

As a country, we really put to try to puzzle out why and seek to do something about it.

MaxPB

DavidL said:

SA really doesn't seem to have benefited as it should have done from the surge in the price of commodities. Its growth is currently just over 2% which, although better than most of Europe including us, is on the low side given the rapidly growing population.

It is a good example of the importance of the rule of law for economic growth and stability. But we are an awful lot less interested in it since apartheid came to an end. My use of it has largely to point out that those who assume the hegemony of the SNP would be ended by independence are being naive. Political parties are very reluctant to outgrow their usefulness.

It hasn't benefited because the corrupt politicians have stolen South Africa's wealth for the last 30 years. They replaced the Empire which stole the wealth with domestic politicians who are stealing the wealth. Worse is that the British still reinvested some of the wealth generated locally, the politicians are stealing it all. All of my family from SA have left in the last decade, they've come here, gone to the US and a few even went to India because "it's not as bad". SA is a basket case nation with corruption at every level of life.

noneoftheabove

Foxy said:

This is a bizarre story. Presumably the offender is now in a women's prison..

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/dec/20/woman-jailed-posing-as-man-cambridge-crown-court

Moral of the story......if you have kids, don't name them Blade.

DavidL

TimS said:

In local UK news we’re now 3 days into what will certainly be the most impressive sustained period of wind power dominating the grid to date.

Currently generating 21gw of power from wind, and only 2.6gw from any form of fossil fuel (CCGT).

There were a rash of stories last week about the grid not being able to cope with surges in wind power and the need to switch many of the turbines off as a result. It was alleged that the money wasted (the turbine owners still get paid) was adding £40 onto the average bill.

Given our massive investment in wind this seemed a somewhat suboptimal state of affairs.

rcs1000

Here's my frightening SA anecdote.

We have 14 developers in the UK. One is a middle aged white guy who left 23 years ago in the first wave of educated white South Africans leaving the country.

Three are young black South Africans, who are very smart and who graduated from top universities in the last four or five years, and who see no future there.

Stuartinromford

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

Monksfield said:

Fishing said:

Who'd have thought that a Marxist-inspired party run by incompetents and lionised by the Guardianista class would prove utterly incapable of building a decent society, stealing everything that isn't nailed down and ruining the rest?

The only surprise is that South Africa has just about held together as long as it has.

I don’t think there’s any truth in the ANC being lionised by the Guardianista class. Mandela was, but that’s a different issue.

The problem of the ANC is that of all loose political coalitions built around narrow populism rather than consistent political intent and in much the same way these problems have infected others including the GOP, the Tory Party and the SNP. Broad populist platforms that paper over huge differences in social attitudes and political objectives cannot deal with complexity, the result is chaos which drives corruption and nepotism which in turn hinders effective governance.

In our age of social media and instant gratification, it’s easiest to pitch simple solutions. But they aren’t what we need.

Independence movements that become hegemonic political parties don't have great records.

Pluralism is an essential component of development, because it means voters can kick the buggers out, and that is a pretty good incentive for at least adequate performance.

So what's our governments' excuse (both north and south of the border)?

Oh, the same issue suffered by most of the developed world: political parties unwillingness to tell the truth to voters, because that isn't an election winning strategy.

How much is it that, and how much is it that political parties are prisoners of their activists, who are very often the last people you want deciding how things should be run?

rcs1000

DavidL said:

TimS said:

In local UK news we’re now 3 days into what will certainly be the most impressive sustained period of wind power dominating the grid to date.

Currently generating 21gw of power from wind, and only 2.6gw from any form of fossil fuel (CCGT).

There were a rash of stories last week about the grid not being able to cope with surges in wind power and the need to switch many of the turbines off as a result. It was alleged that the money wasted (the turbine owners still get paid) was adding £40 onto the average bill.

Given our massive investment in wind this seemed a somewhat suboptimal state of affairs.

(It is, of course, worth remembering that the government made out like banditos when spot electricity prices were well above contracted wind purchase prices.)

Foxy

Likely that the ANC will limp on in power, like the SNP. The opposition are simply too divided.

TOPPING

What a shame. As a tourist I found SA lovely, doing the Garden Route, Hermanus, etc. I mean you couldn't ignore the warning pictures of handguns on every house but other than that...

TimS

DavidL said:

TimS said:

In local UK news we’re now 3 days into what will certainly be the most impressive sustained period of wind power dominating the grid to date.

Currently generating 21gw of power from wind, and only 2.6gw from any form of fossil fuel (CCGT).

There were a rash of stories last week about the grid not being able to cope with surges in wind power and the need to switch many of the turbines off as a result. It was alleged that the money wasted (the turbine owners still get paid) was adding £40 onto the average bill.

Given our massive investment in wind this seemed a somewhat suboptimal state of affairs.

Yes, there’s a huge backlog on transmission capacity particularly when the power is coming from the far North (as is the case now). That said if we are managing 21gw that means practically all the power currently being generated is going on to the grid. Our total capacity is only about 22 or 23.

rcs1000

DavidL said:

TimS said:

In local UK news we’re now 3 days into what will certainly be the most impressive sustained period of wind power dominating the grid to date.

Currently generating 21gw of power from wind, and only 2.6gw from any form of fossil fuel (CCGT).

There were a rash of stories last week about the grid not being able to cope with surges in wind power and the need to switch many of the turbines off as a result. It was alleged that the money wasted (the turbine owners still get paid) was adding £40 onto the average bill.

Given our massive investment in wind this seemed a somewhat suboptimal state of affairs.

On topic, there are a lot of individual issues, the most vexing of which is governments allowing wind farms to be built with guaranteed purchase prices, but with insufficient take away capacity to allow wind energy poor regions to benefit. Scotland has a number of particularly terrible examples, where turbines were installed on islands, and where interconnectors are completely insufficient for the power capacity of the farm.

londonpubman

Foxy said:

Likely that the ANC will limp on in power, like the SNP. The opposition are simply too divided.

SNP may hang on in Holyrood but LAB look set for large gains in Scotland in GE 2024.

MaxPB

In other news gilt rates are dropping very quickly, I saw somewhere that expectations are that the government will now undershoot the annual borrowing bill by a very substantial number because the OBR and BoE pencilled in 8% RPI but we're now at ~5% and falling fast so inflation linked bonds will have significantly lower servicing costs. Also the BoE indemnity will cost £10-12bn less.

The government has room to cut NI by another 1% in April and 1% further in October, bringing it down by 4% in total. I would deliver workers a tax cut of around £1000 per year for someone on the median salary and about £1600 for someone paying higher rate tax. It's also a tax cut that only applies to working incomes so it addresses the imbalance in the economy. If Rishi is smart he will have the chancellor announce this policy in the budget and then an election on a Thursday in November. It may be enough to prevent a total wipe out and give the Tories 230-250 seats, enough to build back from.

OldKingCole

rcs1000 said:

Here's my frightening SA anecdote.

We have 14 developers in the UK. One is a middle aged white guy who left 23 years ago in the first wave of educated white South Africans leaving the country.

Three are young black South Africans, who are very smart and who graduated from top universities in the last four or five years, and who see no future there.

Good Morning everyone.

Mr rcs, did you proof-read your post?

eristdoof

Stuartinromford said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

Monksfield said:

Fishing said:

Who'd have thought that a Marxist-inspired party run by incompetents and lionised by the Guardianista class would prove utterly incapable of building a decent society, stealing everything that isn't nailed down and ruining the rest?

The only surprise is that South Africa has just about held together as long as it has.

I don’t think there’s any truth in the ANC being lionised by the Guardianista class. Mandela was, but that’s a different issue.

The problem of the ANC is that of all loose political coalitions built around narrow populism rather than consistent political intent and in much the same way these problems have infected others including the GOP, the Tory Party and the SNP. Broad populist platforms that paper over huge differences in social attitudes and political objectives cannot deal with complexity, the result is chaos which drives corruption and nepotism which in turn hinders effective governance.

In our age of social media and instant gratification, it’s easiest to pitch simple solutions. But they aren’t what we need.

Independence movements that become hegemonic political parties don't have great records.

Pluralism is an essential component of development, because it means voters can kick the buggers out, and that is a pretty good incentive for at least adequate performance.

So what's our governments' excuse (both north and south of the border)?

In the short to medium term, pretty much that.

2019 was an extreme case, sure- most of the parties in a race to be as self indulgent as possible, a race that the Conservatives lost so they ended up in government.

But there haven't been that many general elections where the UK electorate has really had the choice of two properly viable alternative governments. Normally one of the big two is either utterly Tonto (Conservatives in 2001/5, Labour in 1983) or clearly begging for the sweet release of death (Conservatives in 1997 and probably 2024, Labour in 2010).

Genuinely competitive elections in my voting lifetime? 1992 and 2015, and both of those are a bit of a stretch.

As a country, we really put to try to puzzle out why and seek to do something about it.

I'm surprised you haven't included 2017 in the "competitiative elections" list. I'l agree that is was a surprise that it was so competative though.

Nigelb

MaxPB said:

In other news gilt rates are dropping very quickly, I saw somewhere that expectations are that the government will now undershoot the annual borrowing bill by a very substantial number because the OBR and BoE pencilled in 8% RPI but we're now at ~5% and falling fast so inflation linked bonds will have significantly lower servicing costs. Also the BoE indemnity will cost £10-12bn less.

The government has room to cut NI by another 1% in April and 1% further in October, bringing it down by 4% in total. I would deliver workers a tax cut of around £1000 per year for someone on the median salary and about £1600 for someone paying higher rate tax. It's also a tax cut that only applies to working incomes so it addresses the imbalance in the economy. If Rishi is smart he will have the chancellor announce this policy in the budget and then an election on a Thursday in November. It may be enough to prevent a total wipe out and give the Tories 230-250 seats, enough to build back from.

Except that the government's plans still imply very large departmental spending cuts over the next five years if they are to meet their fiscal targets.
There isn't as much fiscal room as you suggest. Though they'll probably do the pre-election giveaway in anyway. And leave the problem for Labour

rcs1000

OldKingCole said:

rcs1000 said:

Here's my frightening SA anecdote.

We have 14 developers in the UK. One is a middle aged white guy who left 23 years ago in the first wave of educated white South Africans leaving the country.

Three are young black South Africans, who are very smart and who graduated from top universities in the last four or five years, and who see no future there.

Good Morning everyone.

Mr rcs, did you proof-read your post?

I should add that ten of the developers have no connection with South Africa

ydoethur

MaxPB said:

In other news gilt rates are dropping very quickly, I saw somewhere that expectations are that the government will now undershoot the annual borrowing bill by a very substantial number because the OBR and BoE pencilled in 8% RPI but we're now at ~5% and falling fast so inflation linked bonds will have significantly lower servicing costs. Also the BoE indemnity will cost £10-12bn less.

The government has room to cut NI by another 1% in April and 1% further in October, bringing it down by 4% in total. I would deliver workers a tax cut of around £1000 per year for someone on the median salary and about £1600 for someone paying higher rate tax. It's also a tax cut that only applies to working incomes so it addresses the imbalance in the economy. If Rishi is smart

I think I’ve spotted a flaw in your reasoning.

rcs1000

MaxPB said:

In other news gilt rates are dropping very quickly, I saw somewhere that expectations are that the government will now undershoot the annual borrowing bill by a very substantial number because the OBR and BoE pencilled in 8% RPI but we're now at ~5% and falling fast so inflation linked bonds will have significantly lower servicing costs. Also the BoE indemnity will cost £10-12bn less.

The government has room to cut NI by another 1% in April and 1% further in October, bringing it down by 4% in total. I would deliver workers a tax cut of around £1000 per year for someone on the median salary and about £1600 for someone paying higher rate tax. It's also a tax cut that only applies to working incomes so it addresses the imbalance in the economy. If Rishi is smart he will have the chancellor announce this policy in the budget and then an election on a Thursday in November. It may be enough to prevent a total wipe out and give the Tories 230-250 seats, enough to build back from.

It is, of course, worth noting that this means that real value of outstanding UK debt will therefore not be falling as fast as was previously expected.

Nigelb

Yevgeny Maximov was an interesting chap.
Perhaps not the ideal role model.

MaxPB

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

In other news gilt rates are dropping very quickly, I saw somewhere that expectations are that the government will now undershoot the annual borrowing bill by a very substantial number because the OBR and BoE pencilled in 8% RPI but we're now at ~5% and falling fast so inflation linked bonds will have significantly lower servicing costs. Also the BoE indemnity will cost £10-12bn less.

The government has room to cut NI by another 1% in April and 1% further in October, bringing it down by 4% in total. I would deliver workers a tax cut of around £1000 per year for someone on the median salary and about £1600 for someone paying higher rate tax. It's also a tax cut that only applies to working incomes so it addresses the imbalance in the economy. If Rishi is smart he will have the chancellor announce this policy in the budget and then an election on a Thursday in November. It may be enough to prevent a total wipe out and give the Tories 230-250 seats, enough to build back from.

It is, of course, worth noting that this means that real value of outstanding UK debt will therefore not be falling as fast as was previously expected.

It never really did because we had to add so much new stock to service the linkers. The incoming Labour government needs to review the use of them and set a cap of 5-10% of debt issuance. Pension funds will squeal as it will force fund managers to actually work for a living but it will also force them back into equity markets.

OldKingCole

rcs1000 said:

OldKingCole said:

rcs1000 said:

Here's my frightening SA anecdote.

We have 14 developers in the UK. One is a middle aged white guy who left 23 years ago in the first wave of educated white South Africans leaving the country.

Three are young black South Africans, who are very smart and who graduated from top universities in the last four or five years, and who see no future there.

Good Morning everyone.

Mr rcs, did you proof-read your post?

I should add that ten of the developers have no connection with South Africa

Ah, thank you; that makes sense. A coincidence in the numbers rather threw me.

I have agree that RSA seems to be a place that people leave. Several relatives of my wife have done so. We were struck, on our one visit there a few years ago, at the concern at the levels of violence apparently experienced.

MaxPB

Nigelb said:

MaxPB said:

In other news gilt rates are dropping very quickly, I saw somewhere that expectations are that the government will now undershoot the annual borrowing bill by a very substantial number because the OBR and BoE pencilled in 8% RPI but we're now at ~5% and falling fast so inflation linked bonds will have significantly lower servicing costs. Also the BoE indemnity will cost £10-12bn less.

The government has room to cut NI by another 1% in April and 1% further in October, bringing it down by 4% in total. I would deliver workers a tax cut of around £1000 per year for someone on the median salary and about £1600 for someone paying higher rate tax. It's also a tax cut that only applies to working incomes so it addresses the imbalance in the economy. If Rishi is smart he will have the chancellor announce this policy in the budget and then an election on a Thursday in November. It may be enough to prevent a total wipe out and give the Tories 230-250 seats, enough to build back from.

Except that the government's plans still imply very large departmental spending cuts over the next five years if they are to meet their fiscal targets.
There isn't as much fiscal room as you suggest. Though they'll probably do the pre-election giveaway in anyway. And leave the problem for Labour

Spending cuts are absolutely going to be left to the next government. Labour did it to the Tories in 2010, it's only fair that Labour are on the receiving end now.

Roger

Interesting header. I first went in 1982 to shoot an ad for Peugeot France. We had a crew of about 40 and only one black woman who was the caterers assistant. The location crew and facilities were fantastic and it was a ridiculously cheap place to shoot though there was something eerie that was difficult to define.

It had been a forbidden destination for so long and apartheid had only recently ended. For those of us who wouldn't even eat an 'outspan' orange it wasn't exactly what we expected. While we were in a place that felt and looked like a larger than life Cote d'Azur there was a very visible underclass that took no part.

Trucks seemed to be ferrying black workers all over the place. The smart restaurants had no black customers only staff. My french clients didn't like it at all. It had been subject to boycotts for so long members of the crew were asking if they would sell them their Roland Garros jackets.

The divide was very obvious. My first assistant took me back to his farm after we'd finished and it was like a scene from a film. He had several black families living with him -farm workers I imagine-and it was clear they all loved him. All the little kids went wild when he arrived jumping all over him.......This wasn't the black white relationship I'd recently seen in Miami

Over the years it became one of the most popular destinations to film in. I must have worked there ten or fifteen times over the years. I've even shot an entire commercial in studio in Cape Town because the German production company thought the infrastucture so good it made it made it financially worthwhile.

It's now become more expensive and all the talked about crime has put people off which is a pity

squareroot2

Will Rishi be as petty as the ghastly Gordon Brown and cut the Prime Ministers salary as a last act before leaving office?
Anyone who doesn't think Brown was a nasty piece of work needs to think again.

Benpointer

Enjoyable and interesting header Dura. Thanks

NickPalmer

Interesting piece on an underreported country - thanks DA.

Sean_F

A very good header, which along with RCS’s anecdote, makes a depressing read.

The 1895 Mauser. The British thought it most unsporting that the Boers had marksmen who shot down officers at a long distance.

Roger

Roger said:

Interesting header. I first went in 1982 to shoot an ad for Peugeot France. We had a crew of about 40 and only one black woman who was the caterers assistant. The location crew and facilities were fantastic and it was a ridiculously cheap place to shoot though there was something eerie that was difficult to define.

It had been a forbidden destination for so long and apartheid had only recently ended. For those of us who wouldn't even eat an 'outspan' orange it wasn't exactly what we expected. While we were in a place that felt and looked like a larger than life Cote d'Azur there was a very visible underclass that took no part.

Trucks seemed to be ferrying black workers all over the place. The smart restaurants had no black customers only staff. My french clients didn't like it at all. It had been subject to boycotts for so long members of the crew were asking if they would sell them their Roland Garros jackets.

The divide was very obvious. My first assistant took me back to his farm after we'd finished and it was like a scene from a film. He had several black families living with him -farm workers I imagine-and it was clear they all loved him. All the little kids went wild when he arrived jumping all over him.......This wasn't the black white relationship I'd recently seen in Miami

Over the years it became one of the most popular destinations to film in. I must have worked there ten or fifteen times over the years. I've even shot an entire commercial in studio in Cape Town because the German production company thought the infrastucture so good it made it made it financially worthwhile.

It's now become more expensive and all the talked about crime has put people off which is a pity

Should read 1992!

TheScreamingEagles

The CJEU have delivered seminal rulings about the European Super League and home grown quotas.

algarkirk

They throw in Drummer Hodge, to rest
Uncoffined—just as found:
His landmark is a kopje-crest
That breaks the veldt around;
And foreign constellations west
Each night above his mound.

Young Hodge the Drummer never knew—
Fresh from his Wessex home—
The meaning of the broad Karoo,
The Bush, the dusty loam,
And why uprose to nightly view
Strange stars amid the gloam.

Yet portion of that unknown plain
Will Hodge for ever be;
His homely Northern breast and brain
Grow up a Southern tree,
And strange-eyed constellations reign
His stars eternally.

Stocky

Sean_F said:

A very good header, which along with RCS’s anecdote, makes a depressing read.

The 1895 Mauser. The British thought it most unsporting that the Boers had marksmen who shot down officers at a long distance.

I have family in Joburg. Visited in 1981, then again in 2000 and 2018.

The contrast now against the early 80s is stark - so I'm curious about DA being '... struck by how little has yet changed, both economically and culturally".

Different there vs Joburg, no doubt.

Over the last three decades my family's life has consisted of living in a property surrounded by razor wire with sirens blaring day and night and regular loss of power. Sadly, I won't visit them again - it's too dangerous.

boulay

algarkirk said:

They throw in Drummer Hodge, to rest
Uncoffined—just as found:
His landmark is a kopje-crest
That breaks the veldt around;
And foreign constellations west
Each night above his mound.

Young Hodge the Drummer never knew—
Fresh from his Wessex home—
The meaning of the broad Karoo,
The Bush, the dusty loam,
And why uprose to nightly view
Strange stars amid the gloam.

Yet portion of that unknown plain
Will Hodge for ever be;
His homely Northern breast and brain
Grow up a Southern tree,
And strange-eyed constellations reign
His stars eternally.

A more poetic evocation than the line in Zulu Dawn where the drummer boy marking out the range posts as the Zulus are forming gets shot and the soldier with him laments “he comes all the way out here and gets shot by a bullet from bloody Birmingham.”

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

The CJEU have delivered seminal rulings about the European Super League and home grown quotas.

Don't really understand the ESL business. Everyone knows Fifa and UEFA are crooks, but any club could already choose to join another organisation if they wanted, surely the whole point of organisations like Fifa is to say you cannot do that and play against Fifa clubs. Nations could set up their own world Cup too, but not get invited to Fifas if they do.

TimS

TimS said:

DavidL said:

TimS said:

In local UK news we’re now 3 days into what will certainly be the most impressive sustained period of wind power dominating the grid to date.

Currently generating 21gw of power from wind, and only 2.6gw from any form of fossil fuel (CCGT).

There were a rash of stories last week about the grid not being able to cope with surges in wind power and the need to switch many of the turbines off as a result. It was alleged that the money wasted (the turbine owners still get paid) was adding £40 onto the average bill.

Given our massive investment in wind this seemed a somewhat suboptimal state of affairs.

Yes, there’s a huge backlog on transmission capacity particularly when the power is coming from the far North (as is the case now). That said if we are managing 21gw that means practically all the power currently being generated is going on to the grid. Our total capacity is only about 22 or 23.

Now at 21.8gw which should be a clear verified all time record. Well over 50% of power demand during a peak time - 38gw total demand. Not far off what would be 100% of demand on a summer night (gets down to around 23gw at lowest).

rcs1000

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

In other news gilt rates are dropping very quickly, I saw somewhere that expectations are that the government will now undershoot the annual borrowing bill by a very substantial number because the OBR and BoE pencilled in 8% RPI but we're now at ~5% and falling fast so inflation linked bonds will have significantly lower servicing costs. Also the BoE indemnity will cost £10-12bn less.

The government has room to cut NI by another 1% in April and 1% further in October, bringing it down by 4% in total. I would deliver workers a tax cut of around £1000 per year for someone on the median salary and about £1600 for someone paying higher rate tax. It's also a tax cut that only applies to working incomes so it addresses the imbalance in the economy. If Rishi is smart he will have the chancellor announce this policy in the budget and then an election on a Thursday in November. It may be enough to prevent a total wipe out and give the Tories 230-250 seats, enough to build back from.

It is, of course, worth noting that this means that real value of outstanding UK debt will therefore not be falling as fast as was previously expected.

It never really did because we had to add so much new stock to service the linkers. The incoming Labour government needs to review the use of them and set a cap of 5-10% of debt issuance. Pension funds will squeal as it will force fund managers to actually work for a living but it will also force them back into equity markets.

Index linked bonds only make up 25% of outstanding gilts

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

The CJEU have delivered seminal rulings about the European Super League and home grown quotas.

Seminal rulings? Come, now!

viewcode

DecrepiterJohnL said:

OT Twitter/X is still broken so how can I form an opinion on South Africa?

Apparently one gathers evidence, weighs it, and using tools of logic reaches a preliminary conclusion subject to verification and revision by later evidence. Sometimes libraries are involved.

It'll never catch on...

Roger

The first day I arrived I walked to the Waterfront -a giant shopping restaurant centre by the harbour-and there was a black beggar who asked if I could spare any money. I said sorry I only had English and gave him a pound coin. He looked at it and asked what it was. I told him it was worth about 10 rand.

He said 'Ten rand! You's Jesus man!"

kle4

Interesting to read about new political developments in other places. In a way holding together factions this long has been impressive.

rcs1000

Stocky said:

Sean_F said:

A very good header, which along with RCS’s anecdote, makes a depressing read.

The 1895 Mauser. The British thought it most unsporting that the Boers had marksmen who shot down officers at a long distance.

I have family in Joburg. Visited in 1981, then again in 2000 and 2018.

The contrast now against the early 80s is stark - so I'm curious about DA being '... struck by how little has yet changed, both economically and culturally".

Different there vs Joburg, no doubt.

Over the last three decades my family's life has consisted of living in a property surrounded by razor wire with sirens blaring day and night and regular loss of power. Sadly, I won't visit them again - it's too dangerous.

My wife is South African, and I've been visiting there since the early 2000s. The razor wire and armed guards have been there in all the time I've been visiting.

Stocky

rcs1000 said:

Stocky said:

Sean_F said:

A very good header, which along with RCS’s anecdote, makes a depressing read.

The 1895 Mauser. The British thought it most unsporting that the Boers had marksmen who shot down officers at a long distance.

I have family in Joburg. Visited in 1981, then again in 2000 and 2018.

The contrast now against the early 80s is stark - so I'm curious about DA being '... struck by how little has yet changed, both economically and culturally".

Different there vs Joburg, no doubt.

Over the last three decades my family's life has consisted of living in a property surrounded by razor wire with sirens blaring day and night and regular loss of power. Sadly, I won't visit them again - it's too dangerous.

My wife is South African, and I've been visiting there since the early 2000s. The razor wire and armed guards have been there in all the time I've been visiting.

Yep. Awful to see.

Monksfield

MaxPB said:

Nigelb said:

MaxPB said:

In other news gilt rates are dropping very quickly, I saw somewhere that expectations are that the government will now undershoot the annual borrowing bill by a very substantial number because the OBR and BoE pencilled in 8% RPI but we're now at ~5% and falling fast so inflation linked bonds will have significantly lower servicing costs. Also the BoE indemnity will cost £10-12bn less.

The government has room to cut NI by another 1% in April and 1% further in October, bringing it down by 4% in total. I would deliver workers a tax cut of around £1000 per year for someone on the median salary and about £1600 for someone paying higher rate tax. It's also a tax cut that only applies to working incomes so it addresses the imbalance in the economy. If Rishi is smart he will have the chancellor announce this policy in the budget and then an election on a Thursday in November. It may be enough to prevent a total wipe out and give the Tories 230-250 seats, enough to build back from.

Except that the government's plans still imply very large departmental spending cuts over the next five years if they are to meet their fiscal targets.
There isn't as much fiscal room as you suggest. Though they'll probably do the pre-election giveaway in anyway. And leave the problem for Labour

Spending cuts are absolutely going to be left to the next government. Labour did it to the Tories in 2010, it's only fair that Labour are on the receiving end now.

As always, Tories put party first country second.

Sunil_Prasannan

noneoftheabove said:

Foxy said:

This is a bizarre story. Presumably the offender is now in a women's prison..

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/dec/20/woman-jailed-posing-as-man-cambridge-crown-court

Moral of the story......if you have kids, don't name them Blade.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HMiX7iFOwo

Stocky

Thanks for the header DA.

Excellent, as I would expect, "kleptomanic butternut" LOL.

boulay

Stocky said:

Thanks for the header DA.

Excellent, as I would expect, "kleptomanic butternut" LOL.

It would have been better if he had been more precise about which country in South Africa. It’s like writing about North America without saying Canada, USA or Mexico.

viewcode

Good article @Dura_Ace , and related to political betting, which was very pleasing, thank you.

I always thought "butternut" was a synonym for "khaki". Looking at Urban Dictionary I find out there are... other definitions.

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Butternut (NSFW)

tlg86

TheScreamingEagles said:

The CJEU have delivered seminal rulings about the European Super League and home grown quotas.

Hurrah for Brexit.

viewcode

Sunil_Prasannan said:

noneoftheabove said:

Foxy said:

This is a bizarre story. Presumably the offender is now in a women's prison..

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/dec/20/woman-jailed-posing-as-man-cambridge-crown-court

Moral of the story......if you have kids, don't name them Blade.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HMiX7iFOwo

Some mo*********rs are always trying to ice skate uphill

TheScreamingEagles

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The CJEU have delivered seminal rulings about the European Super League and home grown quotas.

Hurrah for Brexit.

The ESL changes look good, so I suspect we join or more likely UEFA reformat the Champions League again.

PJH

Thank you for an interesting article.

I was married to a Coloured South African from Cape Town and visited several times, but never strayed beyond the Western Cape. On my final visit a few years ago it was obvious that in Cape Town, at least, things were a lot better than in 1993 when I first went and much better than my previous visit. The DA by then had been in power in the City and Province for long enough to clean things up and it certainly felt a lot safer than on previous visits - the City Centre was no longer a no go zone. It also seemed that newer developments were a bit less fortified than older ones. Lots of moans about the ANC from everyone I spoke to, and I didn't meet any black people socially. But in restaurants there were definitely more black families than in previous visits, apart from our one night out in a very expensive one which had almost entirely non-black clientele.

My wife's family kept referring to violence but as someone for London the overall atmosphere didn't seem wildly different to some of our more dubious districts and of course we gave the Cape Flats and Khayelitsha a wide berth.

But I hear horror stories from Jo'burg and elsewhere and I do wonder if the Western Cape and the rest of the country are very different, and whether that 'Capexit' might be more than a straw in the wind. Unlikely, but I would have said the same about Brexit in 2010.

Dura_Ace

viewcode said:

Good article @Dura_Ace , and related to political betting, which was very pleasing, thank you.

I always thought "butternut" was a synonym for "khaki". Looking at Urban Dictionary I find out there are... other definitions.

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Butternut (NSFW)

"Butternut" is Malema's nickname for Zuma.

Taz

Dura_Ace said:

Taz said:

I wonder what happened to the Mauser.

My grandfather sold the farms in the early 90s and moved his considerable arsenal to his house in Sea Point. He was convinced the whole place was going to go 'Life and Times of Michael K.' and he might be right eventually.

When he died of boredom in the mid 90s and we liquidated his estate I sold all his guns, including the Mauser, to a shady Serbian.

I'd expect nothing more really. Terrific article and a great anecdote too.

Dura_Ace

Stocky said:

Sean_F said:

A very good header, which along with RCS’s anecdote, makes a depressing read.

The 1895 Mauser. The British thought it most unsporting that the Boers had marksmen who shot down officers at a long distance.

I have family in Joburg. Visited in 1981, then again in 2000 and 2018.

The contrast now against the early 80s is stark - so I'm curious about DA being '... struck by how little has yet changed, both economically and culturally".

Different there vs Joburg, no doubt.

I never spent much time in Cape Town as a youth but that seemed quite different from what I can remember. But in the Veld... same as it ever was.

Taz

It looks like the BBC, an institution known for its own issues with anti-semitism, have selected a candidate for Eurovision who seems to flirt with anti semitism.

Calls to replace him. Won't be heeded.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/bbc-urged-to-sack-eurovision-entrant-who-called-israel-an-apartheid-state/ar-AA1lO8Ii?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=b21cb4e8c062410f9970aa0741b26087&ei=14

tlg86

Interesting thread, thanks @Dura_Ace

viewcode

algarkirk said:

They throw in Drummer Hodge, to rest
Uncoffined—just as found:
His landmark is a kopje-crest
That breaks the veldt around;
And foreign constellations west
Each night above his mound.

Young Hodge the Drummer never knew—
Fresh from his Wessex home—
The meaning of the broad Karoo,
The Bush, the dusty loam,
And why uprose to nightly view
Strange stars amid the gloam.

Yet portion of that unknown plain
Will Hodge for ever be;
His homely Northern breast and brain
Grow up a Southern tree,
And strange-eyed constellations reign
His stars eternally.

Drummer Hodge (first entitled The Dead Drummer, then changed to Drummer
Hodge), Thomas Hardy

Of course we could always do Breaker Morant...

The night's a trifle chilly, And the stars are very bright,
A heavy dew is falling, But the tent is rigged aright,
You may rest your bones till morning, Then if you chance to wake,
Give me a call about the time, That daylight starts to break

It really ain't the place nor time to reel off rhyming diction,
but yet we'll write a final rhyme while waiting crucifixion.
For we bequeath a parting tip of sound advice for such men
who come in transport ships to polish off the Dutchman.
If you encounter any Boers, you really must not loot 'em,
and if you wish to leave these shores, for pity's sake: don't shoot 'em.

Let's toss a bumper down our throat before we pass to Heaven, and toast a trim-set petticoat we leave behind in Devon.

Leon

Nice header @Dura_Ace - love the story

My last visit to SA felt ominous. I have little desire to return - tragically

Roger

Taz said:

It looks like the BBC, an institution known for its own issues with anti-semitism, have selected a candidate for Eurovision who seems to flirt with anti semitism.

Calls to replace him. Won't be heeded.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/bbc-urged-to-sack-eurovision-entrant-who-called-israel-an-apartheid-state/ar-AA1lO8Ii?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=b21cb4e8c062410f9970aa0741b26087&ei=14

As there is not the slightest doubt that Israel is an Apartheid State I don't know what the Telegraph is talking about. Do people still read the telegraph. Apart from a half decent film critic the rest seems to be simply manufactured nonsense.

bigjohnowls

Taz said:

It looks like the BBC, an institution known for its own issues with anti-semitism, have selected a candidate for Eurovision who seems to flirt with anti semitism.

Calls to replace him. Won't be heeded.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/bbc-urged-to-sack-eurovision-entrant-who-called-israel-an-apartheid-state/ar-AA1lO8Ii?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=b21cb4e8c062410f9970aa0741b26087&ei=14

Calling an apartheid state an apartheid state is not Antisemitic.

Calling a genocidal state a genocidal state is not Antisemitic.

Zionists have completely lost it in respect of fake antisemitism accusations.

bigjohnowls

I’m not so sure about the Child-Killing Murder Robot,” Joe said after a sip of coffee while reading the morning paper.

“What??” his wife Anne exclaimed, visibly shocked.

“It’s killed thousands of kids in its latest murder rampage,” Joe said. “I’m starting to think maybe the Child-Killing Murder Robot isn’t such a great thing after all.”

“Well of course it’s on a murder rampage!” said Anne. “Some people tried to turn it off!”

“Yeah the Child-Killing Murder Robot does that whenever anyone tries to turn it off,” replied Joe. “And you know what? I’m starting to think that maybe they’re trying to turn off the Child-Killing Murder Robot because they’re sick of the way it keeps killing children and murdering people!”

“It’s acting in self-defense!” Anne protested. “The Child-Killing Murder Robot has a right to defend itself!”

“It’s been killing people constantly ever since that team of mad scientists invented it back in the forties, Anne! After a certain amount of child-killing and murder, eventually you’ve got to figure that maybe the blame is on the Child-Killing Murder Robot.”

“Look, Joe, I feel terrible about all the child-killing and murder, and I wish it wasn’t happening. But this is a very complicated situation; it’s been going on for many years, and I just don’t see what you could possibly expect the Child-Killing Murder Robot to do at this point besides continue to kill large numbers of children and commit murder at mass scale.”

“Well, maybe they could reprogram the Child-Killing Murder Robot so it doesn’t have to kill children and murder people all the time?”

“But then it wouldn’t be a Child-Killing Murder Robot!”

“Yeah I know, it would be a different sort of thing with a different sort of system. But at least then all the murdering would stop and we’d have peace.”

“The Child-Killing Murder Robot has a right to exist!”

“Why, Anne? Why does there absolutely need to be a homicidal android that’s always in the news because it’s constantly murdering human beings? I’ve seen people talking about one possible solution where the robot is programmed to regard everyone else as its equal so it doesn’t view them as needing to be murdered. Why couldn’t we try that?”

“There is one Child-Killing Murder Robot in the world, Joe. One. And you’re saying there should be zero. You just want to commit genocide.”

“What?? That’s the exact opposite of what I want! How can you say that??”

“If you don’t believe the Child-Killing Murder Robot has a right to exist in its natural child-killing murderous state, then you’re an evil, genocidal racist. You’re no better than those kids chanting ‘Nobody should be murdered’ on university campuses!”

“Anne those students are demonstrating to defend the rights of a population who’s constantly getting murdered by a mindless automaton ......

bigjohnowls

.....

“Anne those students are demonstrating to defend the rights of a population who’s constantly getting murdered by a mindless automaton with machine guns for arms!”

“They’re genocidal fascists, Joe. I’m not saying I support 100 percent of the actions of the Child-Killing Murder Robot, but at least it’s not going around college campuses saying things that make people feel uncomfortable.”

“Well call me crazy but I just don’t accept that making people feel uncomfortable is equal to or worse than murdering children by the thousands.”

“You are crazy, Joe. You’re a crazy, hateful man. I’m going to go spend the night at my sister’s. God, I can’t believe I married a Nazi.”

TOPPING

When I was there there was a strike or protest over wages by municipal workers (Cape Town).

Around 500 people in their high-viz vests and council clothing were marching with associated banners through the city.

Except they weren't marching. The weren't jogging. They were moving rhythmically forward to a beat which they were singing to also. A gutteral, visceral noise, no doubt demanding nothing more sinister than better "pay 'n conditions". But dear god to this white boy it seemed like Cetshwayo's advancing army.

Trivia point: in my platoon I had a private called Chard who was a direct descendant. Fantastic soldier.

Roger

bigjohnowls said:

.....

“Anne those students are demonstrating to defend the rights of a population who’s constantly getting murdered by a mindless automaton with machine guns for arms!”

“They’re genocidal fascists, Joe. I’m not saying I support 100 percent of the actions of the Child-Killing Murder Robot, but at least it’s not going around college campuses saying things that make people feel uncomfortable.”

“Well call me crazy but I just don’t accept that making people feel uncomfortable is equal to or worse than murdering children by the thousands.”

“You are crazy, Joe. You’re a crazy, hateful man. I’m going to go spend the night at my sister’s. God, I can’t believe I married a Nazi.”

Not bad. I believe Baddiel and Fry -who has suddenly re-discovered his long lost Jewish identity -are proposing a double act on anti semitism. I really can't imagine anything at this moment in time that seems quite so grotesque.

Benpointer

TimS said:

TimS said:

DavidL said:

TimS said:

In local UK news we’re now 3 days into what will certainly be the most impressive sustained period of wind power dominating the grid to date.

Currently generating 21gw of power from wind, and only 2.6gw from any form of fossil fuel (CCGT).

There were a rash of stories last week about the grid not being able to cope with surges in wind power and the need to switch many of the turbines off as a result. It was alleged that the money wasted (the turbine owners still get paid) was adding £40 onto the average bill.

Given our massive investment in wind this seemed a somewhat suboptimal state of affairs.

Yes, there’s a huge backlog on transmission capacity particularly when the power is coming from the far North (as is the case now). That said if we are managing 21gw that means practically all the power currently being generated is going on to the grid. Our total capacity is only about 22 or 23.

Now at 21.8gw which should be a clear verified all time record. Well over 50% of power demand during a peak time - 38gw total demand. Not far off what would be 100% of demand on a summer night (gets down to around 23gw at lowest).

Meanwhile I'm looking at the weather forecast and wondering how many days it's possible to survive without seeing the sun before rickets sets in.

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The CJEU have delivered seminal rulings about the European Super League and home grown quotas.

Hurrah for Brexit.

The ESL changes look good, so I suspect we join or more likely UEFA reformat the Champions League again.

They killed their intended brand in its infancy with the first iteration. They made UEFA look good by comparison, no easy feat, and that will hang over any subsequent proposal, and they remain in denial about that.

Andy_JS

Independence for Western Cape is something I haven't heard of before. Interesting.

TOPPING

bigjohnowls said:

.....

“Anne those students are demonstrating to defend the rights of a population who’s constantly getting murdered by a mindless automaton with machine guns for arms!”

“They’re genocidal fascists, Joe. I’m not saying I support 100 percent of the actions of the Child-Killing Murder Robot, but at least it’s not going around college campuses saying things that make people feel uncomfortable.”

“Well call me crazy but I just don’t accept that making people feel uncomfortable is equal to or worse than murdering children by the thousands.”

“You are crazy, Joe. You’re a crazy, hateful man. I’m going to go spend the night at my sister’s. God, I can’t believe I married a Nazi.”

What the fuck are you talking about.

Benpointer

Leon said:

For anyone over-obsessed with AI (me) a new iteration of an AI image maker has dropped overnight. Midjourney V6

It is another major leap forward - especially for photography

If I may be allowed one single image (and I shall post no more today) - check this photo out. It is completely flawless. Yet entirely fake



This is obviously low res. If you look at the original it just gets better the MORE you zoom in. There are no errors. No weird hands. Nothing to tell you this is not real. And these photos can now be animated into videos and movies. No wonder the Hollywood actors went on strike

Link to the original?

Leon

Benpointer said:

Leon said:

For anyone over-obsessed with AI (me) a new iteration of an AI image maker has dropped overnight. Midjourney V6

It is another major leap forward - especially for photography

If I may be allowed one single image (and I shall post no more today) - check this photo out. It is completely flawless. Yet entirely fake



This is obviously low res. If you look at the original it just gets better the MORE you zoom in. There are no errors. No weird hands. Nothing to tell you this is not real. And these photos can now be animated into videos and movies. No wonder the Hollywood actors went on strike

Link to the original?

Very hard to do. Look on discord

viewcode

Taz said:

It looks like the BBC, an institution known for its own issues with anti-semitism, have selected a candidate for Eurovision who seems to flirt with anti semitism.

Calls to replace him. Won't be heeded.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/bbc-urged-to-sack-eurovision-entrant-who-called-israel-an-apartheid-state/ar-AA1lO8Ii?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=b21cb4e8c062410f9970aa0741b26087&ei=14

"calls for".

Benpointer

TOPPING said:

When I was there there was a strike or protest over wages by municipal workers (Cape Town).

Around 500 people in their high-viz vests and council clothing were marching with associated banners through the city.

Except they weren't marching. The weren't jogging. They were moving rhythmically forward to a beat which they were singing to also. A gutteral, visceral noise, no doubt demanding nothing more sinister than better "pay 'n conditions". But dear god to this white boy it seemed like Cetshwayo's advancing army.

Trivia point: in my platoon I had a private called Chard who was a direct descendant. Fantastic soldier.

Direct descendant of who?

(And what's an indirect descendent?)

Luckyguy1983

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

TimS said:

In local UK news we’re now 3 days into what will certainly be the most impressive sustained period of wind power dominating the grid to date.

Currently generating 21gw of power from wind, and only 2.6gw from any form of fossil fuel (CCGT).

There were a rash of stories last week about the grid not being able to cope with surges in wind power and the need to switch many of the turbines off as a result. It was alleged that the money wasted (the turbine owners still get paid) was adding £40 onto the average bill.

Given our massive investment in wind this seemed a somewhat suboptimal state of affairs.

On topic, there are a lot of individual issues, the most vexing of which is governments allowing wind farms to be built with guaranteed purchase prices, but with insufficient take away capacity to allow wind energy poor regions to benefit. Scotland has a number of particularly terrible examples, where turbines were installed on islands, and where interconnectors are completely insufficient for the power capacity of the farm.

Financially, it has made absolute sense for the Scottish Government to allow Wind Farms to be built in inaccessible areas. The constraint payments (which account for loss of subsidy, and are somehow worth considerably more than actually providing power) make the wind farms very wealthy, and the UK billpayers as a whole foot the bill.

Leon

Inter alia, photography - or what is left of it - is completely finished. Midjourney 6 is simply better at any and every style

viewcode

Roger said:

...Fry -who has suddenly re-discovered his long lost Jewish identity...

Excerpted from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Fry#Views_on_religion

Fry has repeatedly expressed opposition to organised religion, and has identified himself as an atheist and humanist, while declaring some sympathy for the ancient Greek belief in gods. In his first autobiography he described how he once considered ordination to the Anglican priesthood, but came to the conclusion that he couldn't believe in God. In 2010, Fry was made a Distinguished Supporter of the British Humanist Association, stating: "it is essential to nail one's colours to the mast as a humanist."

Peter_the_Punter

Thank you for an excellent thread piece, DA. I note that it produced some fascinating responses.

A few years back we thought seriously about moving to SA, and were looking around Durban and Pietermaritzburg. A number of PBers vigourously dissuaded us. They were right, we were wrong. I wouldn't contemplate it now. We have friends in the area and they are toughing it out, but are under no illusions.

Cape Province would still be a possibility, at some time in the future. Would it be a reasonable generalisation to say that the Xhosa work hard and have some idea how to run a country, whereas the Zulus are lazy and couldn't govern anything properly?

Capexit seems like a good idea to me, but would the rest of SA let it go peacefully?

Selebian

Leon said:

For anyone over-obsessed with AI (me) a new iteration of an AI image maker has dropped overnight. Midjourney V6

It is another major leap forward - especially for photography

If I may be allowed one single image (and I shall post no more today) - check this photo out. It is completely flawless. Yet entirely fake




This is obviously low res. If you look at the original it just gets better the MORE you zoom in. There are no errors. No weird hands. Nothing to tell you this is not real. And these photos can now be animated into videos and movies. No wonder the Hollywood actors went on strike

It's impressive, but there are often clues. The BBC website has a regular real or AI quiz and generally I get ~70-80% right, at least (occasionally a full house) and I don't think I have any special ability. That's a bit easier as it's all celebs so there's not only the picture but also the likelihood of the image - i.e. whether X is crazy enough to wear that outfit etc.

In this pic, the white rope third from right is weird. The bend looks to be the wrong way - not explained by gravity, could be explained by wind, but the scene is otherwise calm. The light on the deck retainer is also, maybe, slightly off.

Would I think this was fake if flipping through a magazine and seeing this? No, not at all. If asked explicitly whether it was AI or fake then the rope is the tell here, I think. But that doens't really matter - this is perfectly good enough for $expensivewatch or $fancyholiday advertising materials and that's a bit of a problem for people working in that industry. AI image generation is already good enough to replace that.

For the more nefarious purposes, AI plus a bit of manual touch-up probably does the job too. Interesting times.

kle4

viewcode said:

Roger said:

...Fry -who has suddenly re-discovered his long lost Jewish identity...

Excerpted from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Fry#Views_on_religion

Fry has repeatedly expressed opposition to organised religion, and has identified himself as an atheist and humanist, while declaring some sympathy for the ancient Greek belief in gods. In his first autobiography he described how he once considered ordination to the Anglican priesthood, but came to the conclusion that he couldn't believe in God. In 2010, Fry was made a Distinguished Supporter of the British Humanist Association, stating: "it is essential to nail one's colours to the mast as a humanist."

I believe David Baddiel told a story about how since he started talking more about his Jewish identity he sometimes gets invited to events about religion, and one time a rabbi phoned him up about one and he didn't feel like going so told him he was an atheist, to which the rabbi apparently cheerfully replied 'that's alright, so am I'.