At some point, one nation and Business/Thatcherite conservatives need to start to fight for control of the right, rather than bowing down to and toying with Trumpian populists. Today, they look like a dying breed.
Who on the right can stand up to Braverman, Farage and the divisive menagerie.
Who on the left can?
It will keep happening - indeed, it will grow - until someone in office gets a grip on migration.
This will shortly become Labour's problem. And putting your fingers in your ears isn't a strategy.
Immigration is an issue that largely concerns Tory and Reform voters. It is far less of a primary concern for everyone else. There was a very good piece on this in the FT at the end if last week.
Labour need to have answers to this, or you might find those Tory and Reform voter numbers grow rather quickly.
Yes, Labour needs answers. It’s clearly an issue of concern. Bit it’s one that preoccupies Tory and Reform voters far more than anyone else. This thread is very good on that:
At some point, one nation and Business/Thatcherite conservatives need to start to fight for control of the right, rather than bowing down to and toying with Trumpian populists. Today, they look like a dying breed.
Who on the right can stand up to Braverman, Farage and the divisive menagerie.
Who on the left can?
It will keep happening - indeed, it will grow - until someone in office gets a grip on migration.
This will shortly become Labour's problem. And putting your fingers in your ears isn't a strategy.
Immigration is an issue that largely concerns Tory and Reform voters. It is far less of a primary concern for everyone else. There was a very good piece on this in the FT at the end if last week.
Labour need to have answers to this, or you might find those Tory and Reform voter numbers grow rather quickly.
I understand the Reform reference, but why on earth would Tory voter numbers grow? It’s like suggesting Labour need to get to grips with university tuition fees otherwise those Lib Dem voter numbers are going to grow.
There is one element here that is quite new, even compared with 1997 and that is that age is the prime determinant of voting intention.
That means, in the absence of a trade wind of voters common to both elections actually swinging towards the Tories as they age, there is an inbuilt initial swing to Labour from death and first time voters.
The scale of this is that the Tory lead over Labour narrows by about 1 million voters due to death (or infirmity) removing people from the electorate and around half a million due to new voters. So, 3/4 million people have to age and Torify at each election, just to negate that.
Without that, around 2.5-3% demographic swing is built in before a single person drops off or switches from voting Tory.
At some point, one nation and Business/Thatcherite conservatives need to start to fight for control of the right, rather than bowing down to and toying with Trumpian populists. Today, they look like a dying breed.
Who on the right can stand up to Braverman, Farage and the divisive menagerie.
Who on the left can?
It will keep happening - indeed, it will grow - until someone in office gets a grip on migration.
This will shortly become Labour's problem. And putting your fingers in your ears isn't a strategy.
Immigration is an issue that largely concerns Tory and Reform voters. It is far less of a primary concern for everyone else. There was a very good piece on this in the FT at the end if last week.
I was expecting the article to be by @NickPalmer given the headline...
An interesting analysis, but drawing a conclusion rather different from mine. Because swings of such magnitude are very rare, I would say Labour is unlikely to get an overall majority. Not impossible, but unlikely.
.
But the point made repeatedly by @Heathener with which I agree, is that 2019 was a false baseline. The Tories, led by a fairground huckster, offered the country magic beans. And the country took it.
The real baseline in my view is much closer to 2015. Although clearly there are also demographic and psephological shifts in the electorate since then, not least increased volatility.
The Tories are deeply unpopular, and whilst Labour are not themselves popular, the mood is for change. That will give Labour a decent majority.
She made this point, but she was not convincing (read - wrong) despite her dogmatic insistence in the face of all actual evidence to the contrary which she ignored every time it was pointed out to her.
Actually the result in 2019 was very much what you would have expected based on 2017's Tory vote share once you eliminated the freak 7% or so who voted Labour in a 'stop Brexit' panic. The real story behind all that was the freakishness of 2017.
2019 was, incidentally, very close to what the 1992 election would have looked like without tactical voting (Tory majority of 77). In a sense, that supports your point but because Labour starts from so much further behind in terms of seats they need to do that much more work to catch up.
Another point is that an awful lot of former Labour areas have been drifting away from the party for years. Several reasons for this. One is housing. Many former Labour areas have much lower housing costs so are attracting the moderately affluent and ambitious middle classes who tend to vote Tory, while the cities dominated by the very poor and the liberal rich drift further Labour. Another is simply neglect. Labour have, for example, had a stranglehold on Stoke for years and the city's taken for granted, having useless party grandees like Tristram the Hunt imposed on them (whether they have fared better with Jonathan Gullis is another question)! Demographics and education could also be mentioned - the university seats continue to drift left, manufacturing seats right. Brexit catalysed many of these changes, but it didn't cause them. Morley and Outwood in 2010 and 2015 may be considered the canary in the coal mine. (Indeed, one of the stories of 2017 was how many near misses there were in Tory target seats due to Labour's late surge - Newcastle under Lyme 34 votes was an exceptionally close one, but without even thinking Wolverhampton South East and Wakefield the Tories were a bare 2000 votes from winning seats Labour considered safe).
I am happy to use 2019 as a baseline and consider 2017 the freak. I could be wrong, but all the evidence points the same way.
Which means Starmer still has a huge mountain to climb. Comparable to that of Cameron and Kinnock rather than Blair or Attlee.
Edward Heath pulled it off, but under somewhat different circumstances. That remains the only peacetime election in the age of universal suffrage where a government with a double-digit majority has been replaced by a new government with a double digit majority of its own.
I think what you may be missing is the extent to which what happened ‘oop north’ in 2019 will be replicated in parts of the south and suburbia in 2024. Blocks of voters who have been taken for granted for years can occur on either side of the political spectrum. People can see the lack of investment in our roads, our utilities and our high streets. They can see the crisis in social care and the NHS. Many of them (or their children) work for the public sector and have been poorly treated by the Government for years. And their 20-something kids are boomeranging home because they can’t afford to live anywhere else.
I expect some massive shifts this election. And tactical voting to be back to 1997/2001 levels. Except in the SE, low water for the Tories will be some way below 1997 levels. How low? I don’t know but I expect to see some surprising seats change hands. Chelmsford? Tunbridge Wells?
I’d keep an eye on the Jurassic Coast - constituencies from Bournemouth to Exeter. The demographics are changing very quickly. A lot of retiring late Boomers and downsizing Xers are moving in as the Blue Rinse generation passes into memory. Basically, people like me and my wife are buying the places previously occupied by stalwarts of the Rotary Club and WI. At the same time, we are seeing big cuts in public services, long waits for GP appointments, hospitality struggling because of a lack of labour supply and a constant flow of raw sewage into the rivers and sea. Tory seats down here are going to become a lot scarcer. There may not be any by the mid-2030s, unless the Tories have a serious rethink about their trajectory.
Not all those in the Rotary club and WI are Tories of course, some just want to do community service.
By the mid 2030s if Labour are in government and still in power you would expect the Tories to see swingback to them
Normally, yes. But if the Tories do go into opposition, a lot will depend on how they react to that.
At some point, one nation and Business/Thatcherite conservatives need to start to fight for control of the right, rather than bowing down to and toying with Trumpian populists. Today, they look like a dying breed.
Who on the right can stand up to Braverman, Farage and the divisive menagerie.
Who on the left can?
It will keep happening - indeed, it will grow - until someone in office gets a grip on migration.
This will shortly become Labour's problem. And putting your fingers in your ears isn't a strategy.
Immigration is an issue that largely concerns Tory and Reform voters. It is far less of a primary concern for everyone else. There was a very good piece on this in the FT at the end if last week.
It naive to believe that new right for all their talk want to do anything but inflame tensions on immigration. It’s what sustains them. The last thing they want to do is for someone to make the issue go away.
That’s an interesting point. If by some miracle the government actually managed to “stop the boats” and also slash legal immigration, the issue would decline in salience and instead voters would focus on everything else. Which would be a disaster for the government, especially given slashing migration would also mean stashing the health and social care workforce.
Arguably the Rwanda policy is perfectly calibrated to generate headlines that create tension without solving the problems. Goodness forbid.
It has always been absurd as a deterrent. If you are prepared to risk death a small chance of be one of hundred souls who go to Rwanda is irrelevant.
Rwanda was and is , like all Boris policies, all about spending vast sums of government money to generate headlines in the Daily Mail and outrage on GB news.
The new right feed off immigration, they do not want to reduce tension.
At some point, one nation and Business/Thatcherite conservatives need to start to fight for control of the right, rather than bowing down to and toying with Trumpian populists. Today, they look like a dying breed.
Who on the right can stand up to Braverman, Farage and the divisive menagerie.
Who on the left can?
It will keep happening - indeed, it will grow - until someone in office gets a grip on migration.
This will shortly become Labour's problem. And putting your fingers in your ears isn't a strategy.
Immigration is an issue that largely concerns Tory and Reform voters. It is far less of a primary concern for everyone else. There was a very good piece on this in the FT at the end if last week.
Labour need to have answers to this, or you might find those Tory and Reform voter numbers grow rather quickly.
Labour will need to come up with something. But there is real peril with the Tories shrieking that Labour have no plan - neither do the Tories.
The real comedy is that the people who foam on about this themselves have no plan about how we fill the sudden huge voids in the labour force...
Irony is that opposition to immigration increases with age. And one of the largest groups of those who could work but don't is those who have retired early but are still active.
At some point, one nation and Business/Thatcherite conservatives need to start to fight for control of the right, rather than bowing down to and toying with Trumpian populists. Today, they look like a dying breed.
Who on the right can stand up to Braverman, Farage and the divisive menagerie.
Who on the left can?
It will keep happening - indeed, it will grow - until someone in office gets a grip on migration.
This will shortly become Labour's problem. And putting your fingers in your ears isn't a strategy.
Immigration is an issue that largely concerns Tory and Reform voters. It is far less of a primary concern for everyone else. There was a very good piece on this in the FT at the end if last week.
I think that is wrong, it is an issue for many current non Tories/ReFuks, but people disagree on the solutions. My view is it is pretty much inevitable because of our demographics, but that doesn't mean the current system is working.
It isn't for two reasons, we don't build the right housing and infrastructure for it, and we lie to ourselves about how much to expect which does then create anti-immigrant feeling amongst those who are lied to and most impacted by the lack of housing and infrastructure.
At some point, one nation and Business/Thatcherite conservatives need to start to fight for control of the right, rather than bowing down to and toying with Trumpian populists. Today, they look like a dying breed.
Who on the right can stand up to Braverman, Farage and the divisive menagerie.
Who on the left can?
It will keep happening - indeed, it will grow - until someone in office gets a grip on migration.
This will shortly become Labour's problem. And putting your fingers in your ears isn't a strategy.
Immigration is an issue that largely concerns Tory and Reform voters. It is far less of a primary concern for everyone else. There was a very good piece on this in the FT at the end if last week.
Labour need to have answers to this, or you might find those Tory and Reform voter numbers grow rather quickly.
Yes, Labour needs answers. It’s clearly an issue of concern. Bit it’s one that preoccupies Tory and Reform voters far more than anyone else. This thread is very good on that:
While it preoccupied Tories and REFUK, polling on which party is best on immigration is pretty much a tie. Admittedly this is relatively good for the Tories as they are way behind on other metrics, but immigration isn't the kryptonite that they want.
Ian Wright us stepping down from Match of the Day. Can it be hoped that the ghastly Lineker will leave too.?
That is a shame. I rather like Ian Wright. He wears his heart on his sleeve, which I rather like.
Re Lineker - He is rather good at his job. What is your objection? Is it the money he costs or the fact that he tweaks the noses of politicians or that you don't think he should be allowed to while presenting on BBC? They seem to be the main reasons people object to him. Haven't seen anyone complain about the fact that he does a good job.
At some point, one nation and Business/Thatcherite conservatives need to start to fight for control of the right, rather than bowing down to and toying with Trumpian populists. Today, they look like a dying breed.
Who on the right can stand up to Braverman, Farage and the divisive menagerie.
Who on the left can?
It will keep happening - indeed, it will grow - until someone in office gets a grip on migration.
This will shortly become Labour's problem. And putting your fingers in your ears isn't a strategy.
Immigration is an issue that largely concerns Tory and Reform voters. It is far less of a primary concern for everyone else. There was a very good piece on this in the FT at the end if last week.
Labour need to have answers to this, or you might find those Tory and Reform voter numbers grow rather quickly.
Given the Tories answer is to introduce new laws that merely gaslight voters concerns on immigration, if Labour did nothing surely even that is better than paying hundreds of millions to Rwanda for laws that don't work?
Thank you @Benpointer - some fascinating data here. I didn't realize double digit swings were so rare. However it doesn't shake my view that one is coming at GE24 in Oct/Nov. Reasoning as follows:
I consider GE19 to be an apple amongst pears. Boris/Brexit/Corbyn were wot did it and they've all gone. More fundamentally that was a Brexit election, THE Brexit election really, and this one won't be. The only Brexit angle this time is the extent to which the Hard Leave, anti-immigration, country is full, charity begins at home (if at all) vote which came out heavily for the Cons in 2019 defects to RUK or stays in the pubs clubs and tanning salons. This will impact the size of the Labour majority but not the fact of it. It's going to be a big majority imo and there's more chance of VERY big than small or modest.
When I conceptualize (as one must) the result of GE24 I find it helpful to break it into two parts. First we get a 'normal' opposition win on Time For A Change after 14 years. This will then be boosted (a kind of one off adjustment if you like) by the unwinding of the temporary bespoke voter coalition that decided GE19: Leavers, Remainers weary of it all (Brexit, that is, not Life), Boris fans, Corbyn anti-fans, lots of overlap there obviously but that was the essence of it. It hammered Labour when it came together and by the same token will flatter them now as it falls apart.
I was expecting the article to be by @NickPalmer given the headline...
An interesting analysis, but drawing a conclusion rather different from mine. Because swings of such magnitude are very rare, I would say Labour is unlikely to get an overall majority. Not impossible, but unlikely.
.
But the point made repeatedly by @Heathener with which I agree, is that 2019 was a false baseline. The Tories, led by a fairground huckster, offered the country magic beans. And the country took it.
The real baseline in my view is much closer to 2015. Although clearly there are also demographic and psephological shifts in the electorate since then, not least increased volatility.
The Tories are deeply unpopular, and whilst Labour are not themselves popular, the mood is for change. That will give Labour a decent majority.
She made this point, but she was not convincing (read - wrong) despite her dogmatic insistence in the face of all actual evidence to the contrary which she ignored every time it was pointed out to her.
Actually the result in 2019 was very much what you would have expected based on 2017's Tory vote share once you eliminated the freak 7% or so who voted Labour in a 'stop Brexit' panic. The real story behind all that was the freakishness of 2017.
2019 was, incidentally, very close to what the 1992 election would have looked like without tactical voting (Tory majority of 77). In a sense, that supports your point but because Labour starts from so much further behind in terms of seats they need to do that much more work to catch up.
Another point is that an awful lot of former Labour areas have been drifting away from the party for years. Several reasons for this. One is housing. Many former Labour areas have much lower housing costs so are attracting the moderately affluent and ambitious middle classes who tend to vote Tory, while the cities dominated by the very poor and the liberal rich drift further Labour. Another is simply neglect. Labour have, for example, had a stranglehold on Stoke for years and the city's taken for granted, having useless party grandees like Tristram the Hunt imposed on them (whether they have fared better with Jonathan Gullis is another question)! Demographics and education could also be mentioned - the university seats continue to drift left, manufacturing seats right. Brexit catalysed many of these changes, but it didn't cause them. Morley and Outwood in 2010 and 2015 may be considered the canary in the coal mine. (Indeed, one of the stories of 2017 was how many near misses there were in Tory target seats due to Labour's late surge - Newcastle under Lyme 34 votes was an exceptionally close one, but without even thinking Wolverhampton South East and Wakefield the Tories were a bare 2000 votes from winning seats Labour considered safe).
I am happy to use 2019 as a baseline and consider 2017 the freak. I could be wrong, but all the evidence points the same way.
Which means Starmer still has a huge mountain to climb. Comparable to that of Cameron and Kinnock rather than Blair or Attlee.
Edward Heath pulled it off, but under somewhat different circumstances. That remains the only peacetime election in the age of universal suffrage where a government with a double-digit majority has been replaced by a new government with a double digit majority of its own.
I think what you may be missing is the extent to which what happened ‘oop north’ in 2019 will be replicated in parts of the south and suburbia in 2024. Blocks of voters who have been taken for granted for years can occur on either side of the political spectrum. People can see the lack of investment in our roads, our utilities and our high streets. They can see the crisis in social care and the NHS. Many of them (or their children) work for the public sector and have been poorly treated by the Government for years. And their 20-something kids are boomeranging home because they can’t afford to live anywhere else.
I expect some massive shifts this election. And tactical voting to be back to 1997/2001 levels. Except in the SE, low water for the Tories will be some way below 1997 levels. How low? I don’t know but I expect to see some surprising seats change hands. Chelmsford? Tunbridge Wells?
I’d keep an eye on the Jurassic Coast - constituencies from Bournemouth to Exeter. The demographics are changing very quickly. A lot of retiring late Boomers and downsizing Xers are moving in as the Blue Rinse generation passes into memory. Basically, people like me and my wife are buying the places previously occupied by stalwarts of the Rotary Club and WI. At the same time, we are seeing big cuts in public services, long waits for GP appointments, hospitality struggling because of a lack of labour supply and a constant flow of raw sewage into the rivers and sea. Tory seats down here are going to become a lot scarcer. There may not be any by the mid-2030s, unless the Tories have a serious rethink about their trajectory.
The notion that the Tories will be returned to power for what would be a fifth consecutive term has become more snigger-worthy as this year has unfolded. That is the core explanation for the evaporation of Conservative faith in Rishi Sunak and the strengthening of Sir Keir Starmer’s authority over Labour. This was not universally regarded as a given when the year began. The idea that Mr Sunak might have it in him to pull off an against expectations rebound, replicating what John Major did in the run-up to the 1992 election, was much discussed.
One senior Conservative tells me that, over the year, “I’ve reduced our odds on winning from 30% to 10% to 1%.” “Nothing is working,” sighs one veteran Conservative who has been around long enough to have been present for his party’s dramatic ejection from power in 1997. “We may have reached the stage where nothing will work.”
“He’s f***ing terrible at politics,” a former Conservative cabinet minister groaned to me in the autumn during Mr Sunak’s badly executed and highly divisive U-turns on net zero and HS2. That view has become more prevalent within his party as the year has grown older.
Politics is often a confidence game. Success breeds success, failure foments failure. The Tory leader, a man whose previous life had told him he was a winner, has struggled to put a brave face on experiencing being a loser.
The PM ends this year with personal approval ratings that have become atrocious enough to be comparable with the depths plumbed by Boris Johnson at the time of his defenestration, though they are not yet quite as terrible as those of Liz Truss at her nadir. There doesn’t have to be an election for another 13 months. So Mr Sunak has still got time to work on breaking her record.
There's a lovely mosaic outside Nunhead Station reproducing the local street plan. Some of the street names are cut short as the streets reach the edge of the artwork and the artist has rather brilliantly ensured that there is only space for the first seven letters of Bellenden Road. Makes me smile every time I see it.
I said this before. There are completely impossible barriers to the Rwanda crayon dream: We don't have sufficient police / border force resource to catch all the small boats We don't have anywhere to securely intern all the arrivals and won't be getting anywhere ever as no-one wants a gulag in their locale We don't have sufficient Border Force staff to process people We don't have capacity in the courts system to legally declare people alien We don't have aircraft to fly people to Rwanda Rwanda doesn't have the capacity to take even a fraction of the numbers assuming it still wants to participate at all
So even if the bill gets through parliament - and that looks very unlikely - it still cannot function as intended. To say nothing of the massive holes in the bill which Starmer tore open at PMQs a few weeks ago. Do have to ask if the Tories proposing this bill have actually read it...
Your contribution rather reminded me of:
We don't need no education We don't need no thought control No dark sarcasm in the classroom Teacher, leave them kids alone Hey! Teacher! Leave them kids alone! All in all, it's just another brick in the wall
Certainly those who have persuaded themselves this is ever going to work in a meaningful sense certainly need an education.
Has anyone recently tried to fill an airbus with resentful young men who don't want to be there? Especially after the ultimate deterrent ("one more word from you, Sunny Jim, and we'll send you to Rwanda") has already been expended.
At some point, one nation and Business/Thatcherite conservatives need to start to fight for control of the right, rather than bowing down to and toying with Trumpian populists. Today, they look like a dying breed.
Who on the right can stand up to Braverman, Farage and the divisive menagerie.
Who on the left can?
It will keep happening - indeed, it will grow - until someone in office gets a grip on migration.
This will shortly become Labour's problem. And putting your fingers in your ears isn't a strategy.
Immigration is an issue that largely concerns Tory and Reform voters. It is far less of a primary concern for everyone else. There was a very good piece on this in the FT at the end if last week.
Labour need to have answers to this, or you might find those Tory and Reform voter numbers grow rather quickly.
I understand the Reform reference, but why on earth would Tory voter numbers grow? It’s like suggesting Labour need to get to grips with university tuition fees otherwise those Lib Dem voter numbers are going to grow.
Morning All, I don’t see all that many people these days, but one very common grumble is the state of the roads, especially the number, and depth, of potholes.
Incidentally, what Generation am I; born before WWII. Professional qualification, not degree, although required a couple of years full-time study.
May I ask where you live, OKC?
I am in Gloucestershire, which must have one of the worst potholes problems in the country. I am close to the border with Worcestershire, and when I drive north to Evesham, as I often do, I know as soon as I leave Gloucestershire by the state of the roads. It is exactly the same experience as I once had when driving from Berlin into the recently absorbed East Germany. The tires told you immediately when you crossed the old border.
Why would Gloucestershire roads be so much worse than surrounding counties? Is the county really more starved of funds than others?
Fwiw, it is a Conservative County Council, though that may change soon.
Belated reply, so apologies. I live in Essex, but some of the potholes are on trunk roads.
Morning All, I don’t see all that many people these days, but one very common grumble is the state of the roads, especially the number, and depth, of potholes.
Incidentally, what Generation am I; born before WWII. Professional qualification, not degree, although required a couple of years full-time study.
May I ask where you live, OKC?
I am in Gloucestershire, which must have one of the worst potholes problems in the country. I am close to the border with Worcestershire, and when I drive north to Evesham, as I often do, I know as soon as I leave Gloucestershire by the state of the roads. It is exactly the same experience as I once had when driving from Berlin into the recently absorbed East Germany. The tires told you immediately when you crossed the old border.
Why would Gloucestershire roads be so much worse than surrounding counties? Is the county really more starved of funds than others?
Fwiw, it is a Conservative County Council, though that may change soon.
Apparently the local committee that deals with pot holes glossed over the solution.
Ian Wright us stepping down from Match of the Day. Can it be hoped that the ghastly Lineker will leave too.?
That is a shame. I rather like Ian Wright. He wears his heart on his sleeve, which I rather like.
Re Lineker - He is rather good at his job. What is your objection? Is it the money he costs or the fact that he tweaks the noses of politicians or that you don't think he should be allowed to while presenting on BBC? They seem to be the main reasons people object to him. Haven't seen anyone complain about the fact that he does a good job.
Lineker is a tad too smarmy for me, made worse by the ridiculous salary so not surprised he grates with those who don't like his politics, even if the level of their objection tends to the absurd.
There's a lovely mosaic outside Nunhead Station reproducing the local street plan. Some of the street names are cut short as the streets reach the edge of the artwork and the artist has rather brilliantly ensured that there is only space for the first seven letters of Bellenden Road. Makes me smile every time I see it.
The council once put up new street signs in Naval Row in London's docklands, except they read Navel Row.
Harking back to the last thread, it looks like the right is searching for and trialling negative material or smears (delete as appropriate) for the election campaign.
I was expecting the article to be by @NickPalmer given the headline...
An interesting analysis, but drawing a conclusion rather different from mine. Because swings of such magnitude are very rare, I would say Labour is unlikely to get an overall majority. Not impossible, but unlikely.
A couple of other points:
1) It's not worth considering elections before 1885 for swing, due to the restricted electorate, and in many ways it isn't worth considering elections before 1918 due to the limited number of seats actually contested. In 1900, for example, 243 seats were returned unopposed.
2) This also solves the problem with 1918!
3) I would also note the swing in 1931 was fiendishly complicated as well, due to splits, electoral pacts and the economic crisis. So that swing is not much use as a comparison.
4) The 1945 general election was not only the only election since 1900 held in wartime* but brought an end to the longest parliament since the dissolution of the Long Parliament in 1660. It was also the last election at which multiple voting was allowed. I don't think the swing there tells us much either.
5) That means that there is only one election where there was a swing which - if replicated - would give Starmer's Labour a majority. The election concerned was 1997. That swing would give Starmer a majority of one.
That's a formidable task. It's remarkable it's even possible, but even allowing for Rishi Sunak being more deluded than a Republican Senator it seems to me in the words of Lord Peter Wimsey an improbable-possible.
*Technically 1918 was too but there was a ceasefire in effect, so I'm not counting that.
Your thesis is that historical precedent (or lack thereof) trumps polling. I am sceptical. I think polling trumps historical precedent.
There’s no magic about historical precedent. It’s just what has happened to happen. There isn’t a mechanism of action by which what has happened before constrains what will happen next time. If very large numbers of people are saying they will vote Labour, and only small numbers say Conservative, I think we have to believe them.
I think you're misunderstanding historical precedent. The point is not that 'because it was ever thus, it ever will be.' That's legal precedent. Historical precedent is, 'this is how our structures play out in the real world.' That incidentally includes polling precedent. You will notice we don't use that much and never from before 1992 because so many changes to methodology have taken place since then. (If we were, I'd point out that Labour had far larger leads than now in 1963 and came within an ace of losing the 1964 election. Even allowing for that, if memory serves Labour were frequently 16-20 points behind in the polls from 2008-10 and the electoral system helpfully still delivered them a hung Parliament on a mere 29% of the vote, although the Tories would be fools to expect a similar result on a similar share.)
It's also why I'm saying we should discount elections before 1945 in considering likely outcomes. I am pointing out that if we do such swings are extremely rare, and such seat gains as Labour require for a majority equally rare. Our system militates against it.
That doesn't mean such an outcome is impossible, merely that it shouldn't be favourite. Don't look at just the polls, look at the practicalities too.
I think your case is that such swings HAVE BEEN extremely rare, which isn’t the same as saying they ARE extremely rare. The world can change.
If we take the polling at face value, then this analysis of historical swings suggests the next election will have a record swing. That could be because we’ve had an unusual period of politics (Brexit, the oddities of 2017/9, the rise of the Brexit Party/Reform), including other unprecedented events (COVID-19, PM turnover, PM law-breaking, tax levels, immigration levels).
But maybe also people’s voting behaviours have changed. The idea that you can’t have large swings comes down to the idea that most people won’t change how they vote. The “practicalities” of which you speak are of getting people to vote for a different party than last time. Maybe, in the modern era, after some unprecedented referendums, in a world of social media, people are just much more changeable in how they vote. I note that two out of the three highest ever Conservative->Labour swings in by-elections have been in this Parliament, and three out of the four highest Conservative->LibDem swings too. Isn’t that evidence that the electorate has become “swingier”?
Yes, by definition because they have been rare they are rare. There is very little evidence that swings will be greater (although Scotland 2015 may be a canary in the coal mine, but we still need actual evidence).
Just to put your reply in a way I think you might appreciate, what you have effectively said is that because perpetual motion machines haven’t worked up to now doesn’t mean AI may not be about to change it.
Well i am on NOM at what i think are generous odds considering SKS cant answer a single off script question without appearing to be the Lettuce;s 2nd coming
Any thoughts on the Mone interview? Aside from it being very funny?
I am sure our hearts go out to her and her husband.
What will an incoming Lab Govt do about it?
Welcome her back?
'Mone says she previously supported the Labour Party, as did her family, but withdrew her support in 2009 after the prime minister, Gordon Brown, increased the top income tax rate to 50%'
If the Conservatives can persuade voters that they should be scared of a Labour government then they may win a few voters back. What is more likely to happen especially as Labour appear to be ruling out anything controversial is that usually Conservative voters will vote Respect or Green or even Liberal Democrat reasoning that a Labour victory is a certainty and the Tories don't deserve their vote. A collapse in the number of Conservative MPs to almost Canadian proportions is a real possibility.
There's a lovely mosaic outside Nunhead Station reproducing the local street plan. Some of the street names are cut short as the streets reach the edge of the artwork and the artist has rather brilliantly ensured that there is only space for the first seven letters of Bellenden Road. Makes me smile every time I see it.
There is a Bell End Farm on the North Yorkshire Moors… their cheese is meant to be very good but I declined a taste…
Morning All, I don’t see all that many people these days, but one very common grumble is the state of the roads, especially the number, and depth, of potholes.
Incidentally, what Generation am I; born before WWII. Professional qualification, not degree, although required a couple of years full-time study.
May I ask where you live, OKC?
I am in Gloucestershire, which must have one of the worst potholes problems in the country. I am close to the border with Worcestershire, and when I drive north to Evesham, as I often do, I know as soon as I leave Gloucestershire by the state of the roads. It is exactly the same experience as I once had when driving from Berlin into the recently absorbed East Germany. The tires told you immediately when you crossed the old border.
Why would Gloucestershire roads be so much worse than surrounding counties? Is the county really more starved of funds than others?
Fwiw, it is a Conservative County Council, though that may change soon.
Apparently the local committee that deals with pot holes glossed over the solution.
When you add it all together, there is a profound dissatisfaction with populist politics based on grievance, outrage, and protest over single issues. I think there is a demand for stability and governance. Starmer's biggest selling point is exactly that he is a "human bollard". The ploy that hardline conservatives specialize in seems to be utterly out of favour.
This is probably all part of the structural changes that come from the demographic erosion of the boomer segment and the rise of millenials as the most powerful voting block. Millenials are on average more likely to be university educated, left leaning remainers with tolerant views about ethnicity and gender identity, holding a grievance against tories who have done nothing but ridicule them for their coffee and avocado toast preferences and excluded them from fair housing. The millenials are only going to get stronger over the next terms of government. There are also moving out of London into neighbouring areas to shift the balance in traditional tory regions.
The hard right boomer platform just isn't sustainable for a political party. My guess: this is a phase change in british politics. If the tories want to survive after being kicked out, they will have to ditch the boomers and rebrand conservativism for the millenials. (Nobody gives a rats arse about gen x of course)
Well done, I haven't read 3 paragraphs of quite such unmitigated tripe for a very long time.
There's a lovely mosaic outside Nunhead Station reproducing the local street plan. Some of the street names are cut short as the streets reach the edge of the artwork and the artist has rather brilliantly ensured that there is only space for the first seven letters of Bellenden Road. Makes me smile every time I see it.
There is a Bell End Farm on the North Yorkshire Moors… their cheese is meant to be very good but I declined a taste…
Well i am on NOM at what i think are generous odds considering SKS cant answer a single off script question without appearing to be the Lettuce;s 2nd coming
I do think we are going to see some tightening of the lead before the GE. That is not inevitable, and indeed there’s plenty of ways for the Tories to shoot themselves in the foot still.
I don’t believe Labour will poll in the mid 40s in an election. 40 to me feels more realistic. For some time now, Labour have been the default for many people because of how shocking the Tories have been. As the election nears, some of that vote will likely peel away.
I think another problem Starmer has is that he has been somewhat of a tabula rasa for a lot of voters. He is going to have to start putting meat on the bones in the new year (personally I think he has left it a bit later than he should have done). That comes with risks.
I still think Labour are on course for a majority, and the Tories are in for a bad result. Tactical voting on its own could see the Tories doing badly on seat numbers even if there is some improvement in their vote share. People want to kick this government. But I do expect Labour to have a more difficult ride in the new year.
There's a lovely mosaic outside Nunhead Station reproducing the local street plan. Some of the street names are cut short as the streets reach the edge of the artwork and the artist has rather brilliantly ensured that there is only space for the first seven letters of Bellenden Road. Makes me smile every time I see it.
There is a Bell End Farm on the North Yorkshire Moors… their cheese is meant to be very good but I declined a taste…
Viz once had Ed Sec Michael Gove calling for higher standards of English teaching because most of the letters sent to him misspelled the word bellend.
I was expecting the article to be by @NickPalmer given the headline...
An interesting analysis, but drawing a conclusion rather different from mine. Because swings of such magnitude are very rare, I would say Labour is unlikely to get an overall majority. Not impossible, but unlikely.
.
But the point made repeatedly by @Heathener with which I agree, is that 2019 was a false baseline. The Tories, led by a fairground huckster, offered the country magic beans. And the country took it.
The real baseline in my view is much closer to 2015. Although clearly there are also demographic and psephological shifts in the electorate since then, not least increased volatility.
The Tories are deeply unpopular, and whilst Labour are not themselves popular, the mood is for change. That will give Labour a decent majority.
Edward Heath pulled it off, but under somewhat different circumstances. That remains the only peacetime election in the age of universal suffrage where a government with a double-digit majority has been replaced by a new government with a double digit majority of its own.
Also the only single term government since the war. 1970 was odd in several ways...
There's a lovely mosaic outside Nunhead Station reproducing the local street plan. Some of the street names are cut short as the streets reach the edge of the artwork and the artist has rather brilliantly ensured that there is only space for the first seven letters of Bellenden Road. Makes me smile every time I see it.
There is a Bell End Farm on the North Yorkshire Moors… their cheese is meant to be very good but I declined a taste…
Viz once had Ed Sec Michael Gove calling for higher standards of English teaching because most of the letters sent to him misspelled the word bellend.
I was expecting the article to be by @NickPalmer given the headline...
An interesting analysis, but drawing a conclusion rather different from mine. Because swings of such magnitude are very rare, I would say Labour is unlikely to get an overall majority. Not impossible, but unlikely.
.
But the point made repeatedly by @Heathener with which I agree, is that 2019 was a false baseline. The Tories, led by a fairground huckster, offered the country magic beans. And the country took it.
The real baseline in my view is much closer to 2015. Although clearly there are also demographic and psephological shifts in the electorate since then, not least increased volatility.
The Tories are deeply unpopular, and whilst Labour are not themselves popular, the mood is for change. That will give Labour a decent majority.
Edward Heath pulled it off, but under somewhat different circumstances. That remains the only peacetime election in the age of universal suffrage where a government with a double-digit majority has been replaced by a new government with a double digit majority of its own.
Also the only single term government since the war. 1970 was odd in several ways...
How long are the IDF going to hide behind their “ we’re not stopping until Hamas no longer would be able to repeat the October 7 attack “.
It’s clear that intelligence failures led to the attack . Surely these wouldn’t be repeated so how much more death and destruction will they inflict on Gazans .
Harking back to the last thread, it looks like the right is searching for and trialling negative material or smears (delete as appropriate) for the election campaign.
Yep. Tricky, on the face of it.
If SKS spams "I will always defend the Rule of Law" as a response throughout the campaign the Tories will give up.
Well i am on NOM at what i think are generous odds considering SKS cant answer a single off script question without appearing to be the Lettuce;s 2nd coming
This, if accurate, has got to be the Freudian slip of the 21st century so far:
Gary Thomas, unqualified investigator on Horizon:
we had somebody who would give a witness statement from Fujitsu that all the cases seemed to suggest that there was no product integrity with Horizon.”
Harking back to the last thread, it looks like the right is searching for and trialling negative material or smears (delete as appropriate) for the election campaign.
Yep. Tricky, on the face of it.
If SKS spams "I will always defend the Rule of Law" as a response throughout the campaign the Tories will give up.
The Tories really are pathetic and desperate . If the organization was so bad why haven’t they banned it.
I was expecting the article to be by @NickPalmer given the headline...
An interesting analysis, but drawing a conclusion rather different from mine. Because swings of such magnitude are very rare, I would say Labour is unlikely to get an overall majority. Not impossible, but unlikely.
.
But the point made repeatedly by @Heathener with which I agree, is that 2019 was a false baseline. The Tories, led by a fairground huckster, offered the country magic beans. And the country took it.
The real baseline in my view is much closer to 2015. Although clearly there are also demographic and psephological shifts in the electorate since then, not least increased volatility.
The Tories are deeply unpopular, and whilst Labour are not themselves popular, the mood is for change. That will give Labour a decent majority.
Edward Heath pulled it off, but under somewhat different circumstances. That remains the only peacetime election in the age of universal suffrage where a government with a double-digit majority has been replaced by a new government with a double digit majority of its own.
Also the only single term government since the war. 1970 was odd in several ways.
All elections have their own unique circumstances, but both 2017 and 2019 were particularly odd. I think 2015 was our last "normal" election, though even that was odd due to the Coalition.
But here again we come back to my point - those people arguing for a big Labour win are *assuming* 2019 was odd, and a 'get Brexit done' election. Having burrowed deep into the data it simply doesn't support that conclusion. Not forgetting that Brexit itself wasn't just about leaving the EU although it should have been.
Therefore, those who dismiss 2019 as a baseline (to reiterate) are making a serious error. It is a perfectly acceptable baseline and we again come back to Starmer has a mountain to climb.
As we see by the goalpost moving on here. First 2019 wasn't useful. Then I don't understand the depth of anger in the south...
The factor that those who say that 2019 should somehow be ignored is incumbency. 350 Tory MPs have had public money pouring into their constituencies, paying for full time staff, offices, office equipment and helping those MPs maintain a profile in the local media. That may not quite be the enormous advantage that new Labour had when the faucets were at maximum before the Coalition but it is still a tremendous help (the SNP in Scotland have a similar advantage by the way) and makes the figures about what is really being spent on the election somewhat bogus because a lot of the spending by the non incumbent party will simply be mirroring what the incumbents are getting for free.
At present there are 198 properly signed up Labour MPs in Parliament, with some outliers in very safe Labour seats who have been expelled for various reasons. That means the Tories have got 152x that financial advantage across the country. In Scotland the SNP have 41 more of the same benefits as Labour. It won't save them but it makes the mountain Labour have to climb truly precipitous.
Hmm?
(a) In Scotland, plenty of MSPs as well, and about half are Unionist parties - so considerably balanced out, as folk don't differentiate between the devolved and non-devolved aspects of policy when voting. (b) 152x? I make it 350/198 = 1.76X (or "76% advantage over"
Morning All, I don’t see all that many people these days, but one very common grumble is the state of the roads, especially the number, and depth, of potholes.
Incidentally, what Generation am I; born before WWII. Professional qualification, not degree, although required a couple of years full-time study.
May I ask where you live, OKC?
I am in Gloucestershire, which must have one of the worst potholes problems in the country. I am close to the border with Worcestershire, and when I drive north to Evesham, as I often do, I know as soon as I leave Gloucestershire by the state of the roads. It is exactly the same experience as I once had when driving from Berlin into the recently absorbed East Germany. The tires told you immediately when you crossed the old border.
Why would Gloucestershire roads be so much worse than surrounding counties? Is the county really more starved of funds than others?
Fwiw, it is a Conservative County Council, though that may change soon.
Belated reply, so apologies. I live in Essex, but some of the potholes are on trunk roads.
This, if accurate, has got to be the Freudian slip of the 21st century so far:
Gary Thomas, unqualified investigator on Horizon:
we had somebody who would give a witness statement from Fujitsu that all the cases seemed to suggest that there was no product integrity with Horizon.”
Mm. Wording same here FWIW, but in a wider context:
Ian Wright us stepping down from Match of the Day. Can it be hoped that the ghastly Lineker will leave too.?
That is a shame. I rather like Ian Wright. He wears his heart on his sleeve, which I rather like.
Re Lineker - He is rather good at his job. What is your objection? Is it the money he costs or the fact that he tweaks the noses of politicians or that you don't think he should be allowed to while presenting on BBC? They seem to be the main reasons people object to him. Haven't seen anyone complain about the fact that he does a good job.
Lineker is a tad too smarmy for me, made worse by the ridiculous salary so not surprised he grates with those who don't like his politics, even if the level of their objection tends to the absurd.
I have a feeling that Lineker isn't particularly left wing. He's so familiar with the wind up merchant aspect of football, he simply can't resist baiting the gammons.
That dopamine rush hits hard. I've been taking notes.
I was expecting the article to be by @NickPalmer given the headline...
An interesting analysis, but drawing a conclusion rather different from mine. Because swings of such magnitude are very rare, I would say Labour is unlikely to get an overall majority. Not impossible, but unlikely.
.
But the point made repeatedly by @Heathener with which I agree, is that 2019 was a false baseline. The Tories, led by a fairground huckster, offered the country magic beans. And the country took it.
The real baseline in my view is much closer to 2015. Although clearly there are also demographic and psephological shifts in the electorate since then, not least increased volatility.
The Tories are deeply unpopular, and whilst Labour are not themselves popular, the mood is for change. That will give Labour a decent majority.
Edward Heath pulled it off, but under somewhat different circumstances. That remains the only peacetime election in the age of universal suffrage where a government with a double-digit majority has been replaced by a new government with a double digit majority of its own.
Also the only single term government since the war. 1970 was odd in several ways...
coughcoughEnochPowellcoughcough1970coughcough1974
Plenty of racists twats around this time too.
I'd be uncomfortable with any politician who hung around with the likes of Meloni and Musk. Fortunately none of our senior political figures would go out of their way to rub shoulders with people like that.
Ian Wright us stepping down from Match of the Day. Can it be hoped that the ghastly Lineker will leave too.?
That is a shame. I rather like Ian Wright. He wears his heart on his sleeve, which I rather like.
Re Lineker - He is rather good at his job. What is your objection? Is it the money he costs or the fact that he tweaks the noses of politicians or that you don't think he should be allowed to while presenting on BBC? They seem to be the main reasons people object to him. Haven't seen anyone complain about the fact that he does a good job.
Lineker is a tad too smarmy for me, made worse by the ridiculous salary so not surprised he grates with those who don't like his politics, even if the level of their objection tends to the absurd.
Gary Lineker is, I suspect, one of those guys who annoys the hell out of people on social media (including me) but is perfectly pleasant in real life.
I was expecting the article to be by @NickPalmer given the headline...
An interesting analysis, but drawing a conclusion rather different from mine. Because swings of such magnitude are very rare, I would say Labour is unlikely to get an overall majority. Not impossible, but unlikely.
.
But the point made repeatedly by @Heathener with which I agree, is that 2019 was a false baseline. The Tories, led by a fairground huckster, offered the country magic beans. And the country took it.
The real baseline in my view is much closer to 2015. Although clearly there are also demographic and psephological shifts in the electorate since then, not least increased volatility.
The Tories are deeply unpopular, and whilst Labour are not themselves popular, the mood is for change. That will give Labour a decent majority.
Edward Heath pulled it off, but under somewhat different circumstances. That remains the only peacetime election in the age of universal suffrage where a government with a double-digit majority has been replaced by a new government with a double digit majority of its own.
Also the only single term government since the war. 1970 was odd in several ways...
coughcoughEnochPowellcoughcough1970coughcough1974
Plenty of racists twats around this time too.
I'd be uncomfortable with any politician who hung around with the likes of Meloni and Musk. Fortunately none of our senior political figures would go out of their way to rub shoulders with people like that.
Well, I can see it might require a few physical contortions to rub his shoulder while rubbing his cock.
Ian Wright us stepping down from Match of the Day. Can it be hoped that the ghastly Lineker will leave too.?
That is a shame. I rather like Ian Wright. He wears his heart on his sleeve, which I rather like.
Re Lineker - He is rather good at his job. What is your objection? Is it the money he costs or the fact that he tweaks the noses of politicians or that you don't think he should be allowed to while presenting on BBC? They seem to be the main reasons people object to him. Haven't seen anyone complain about the fact that he does a good job.
Lineker is a tad too smarmy for me, made worse by the ridiculous salary so not surprised he grates with those who don't like his politics, even if the level of their objection tends to the absurd.
I have a feeling that Lineker isn't particularly left wing. He's so familiar with the wind up merchant aspect of football, he simply can't resist baiting the gammons.
That dopamine rush hits hard. I've been taking notes.
But, if you get your kicks from winding up other people, it normally points to deeper rooted issues.
I was expecting the article to be by @NickPalmer given the headline...
An interesting analysis, but drawing a conclusion rather different from mine. Because swings of such magnitude are very rare, I would say Labour is unlikely to get an overall majority. Not impossible, but unlikely.
.
But the point made repeatedly by @Heathener with which I agree, is that 2019 was a false baseline. The Tories, led by a fairground huckster, offered the country magic beans. And the country took it.
The real baseline in my view is much closer to 2015. Although clearly there are also demographic and psephological shifts in the electorate since then, not least increased volatility.
The Tories are deeply unpopular, and whilst Labour are not themselves popular, the mood is for change. That will give Labour a decent majority.
Edward Heath pulled it off, but under somewhat different circumstances. That remains the only peacetime election in the age of universal suffrage where a government with a double-digit majority has been replaced by a new government with a double digit majority of its own.
Also the only single term government since the war. 1970 was odd in several ways.
All elections have their own unique circumstances, but both 2017 and 2019 were particularly odd. I think 2015 was our last "normal" election, though even that was odd due to the Coalition.
But here again we come back to my point - those people arguing for a big Labour win are *assuming* 2019 was odd, and a 'get Brexit done' election. Having burrowed deep into the data it simply doesn't support that conclusion. Not forgetting that Brexit itself wasn't just about leaving the EU although it should have been.
Therefore, those who dismiss 2019 as a baseline (to reiterate) are making a serious error. It is a perfectly acceptable baseline and we again come back to Starmer has a mountain to climb.
As we see by the goalpost moving on here. First 2019 wasn't useful. Then I don't understand the depth of anger in the south...
The factor that those who say that 2019 should somehow be ignored is incumbency. 350 Tory MPs have had public money pouring into their constituencies, paying for full time staff, offices, office equipment and helping those MPs maintain a profile in the local media. That may not quite be the enormous advantage that new Labour had when the faucets were at maximum before the Coalition but it is still a tremendous help (the SNP in Scotland have a similar advantage by the way) and makes the figures about what is really being spent on the election somewhat bogus because a lot of the spending by the non incumbent party will simply be mirroring what the incumbents are getting for free.
At present there are 198 properly signed up Labour MPs in Parliament, with some outliers in very safe Labour seats who have been expelled for various reasons. That means the Tories have got 152x that financial advantage across the country. In Scotland the SNP have 41 more of the same benefits as Labour. It won't save them but it makes the mountain Labour have to climb truly precipitous.
I think swingback works when the MP in question works hard and has a good story to tell. My own Conservative MP is an idle so and so, and the record of the Conservative government has left him without anything positive to say. I do not think he will get any swingback in this seat.
I was expecting the article to be by @NickPalmer given the headline...
An interesting analysis, but drawing a conclusion rather different from mine. Because swings of such magnitude are very rare, I would say Labour is unlikely to get an overall majority. Not impossible, but unlikely.
.
But the point made repeatedly by @Heathener with which I agree, is that 2019 was a false baseline. The Tories, led by a fairground huckster, offered the country magic beans. And the country took it.
The real baseline in my view is much closer to 2015. Although clearly there are also demographic and psephological shifts in the electorate since then, not least increased volatility.
The Tories are deeply unpopular, and whilst Labour are not themselves popular, the mood is for change. That will give Labour a decent majority.
Edward Heath pulled it off, but under somewhat different circumstances. That remains the only peacetime election in the age of universal suffrage where a government with a double-digit majority has been replaced by a new government with a double digit majority of its own.
Also the only single term government since the war. 1970 was odd in several ways...
coughcoughEnochPowellcoughcough1970coughcough1974
Plenty of racists twats around this time too.
I'd be uncomfortable with any politician who hung around with the likes of Meloni and Musk. Fortunately none of our senior political figures would go out of their way to rub shoulders with people like that.
What's your problem with Meloni? And hanging around with the Prime minister of Italy is basically inevitable. Musk ought to be given a wide berth now and perhaps he should have been prior to Bletchley even.
Harking back to the last thread, it looks like the right is searching for and trialling negative material or smears (delete as appropriate) for the election campaign.
Yep. Tricky, on the face of it.
If SKS spams "I will always defend the Rule of Law" as a response throughout the campaign the Tories will give up.
The problem is a lot of negative campaigning will be below the radar. Starmer cannot respond if he does not even know the attacks are being made. (And if he does respond, he risks amplifying the message.) Microtargeted messages via social media, probably from deniable sources, even the same techniques as Russian trolls.
Any thoughts on the Mone interview? Aside from it being very funny?
I am sure our hearts go out to her and her husband.
What will an incoming Lab Govt do about it?
Welcome her back?
'Mone says she previously supported the Labour Party, as did her family, but withdrew her support in 2009 after the prime minister, Gordon Brown, increased the top income tax rate to 50%'
The volte face on here when previously staunch Tory supporters, criticised in the most lurid terms, are suddenly commended for seeing the light and embracing Labour once it's back comfortably in office will be a wonder to behold.
Ian Wright us stepping down from Match of the Day. Can it be hoped that the ghastly Lineker will leave too.?
That is a shame. I rather like Ian Wright. He wears his heart on his sleeve, which I rather like.
Re Lineker - He is rather good at his job. What is your objection? Is it the money he costs or the fact that he tweaks the noses of politicians or that you don't think he should be allowed to while presenting on BBC? They seem to be the main reasons people object to him. Haven't seen anyone complain about the fact that he does a good job.
Lineker is a tad too smarmy for me, made worse by the ridiculous salary so not surprised he grates with those who don't like his politics, even if the level of their objection tends to the absurd.
I have a feeling that Lineker isn't particularly left wing. He's so familiar with the wind up merchant aspect of football, he simply can't resist baiting the gammons.
That dopamine rush hits hard. I've been taking notes.
As a player Gary Lineker was described as The Queen Mother of Football because he never received a yellow card.
Talking about soccer, back Manchester United to win today you can get around 8/1 because Liverpool haven't been playing well recently.
Also on Højlund to score anytime and to have an assist at 40/1.
No way Liverpool win 7 nil again which you can get at 100/1 with some bookies.
I was expecting the article to be by @NickPalmer given the headline...
An interesting analysis, but drawing a conclusion rather different from mine. Because swings of such magnitude are very rare, I would say Labour is unlikely to get an overall majority. Not impossible, but unlikely.
.
But the point made repeatedly by @Heathener with which I agree, is that 2019 was a false baseline. The Tories, led by a fairground huckster, offered the country magic beans. And the country took it.
The real baseline in my view is much closer to 2015. Although clearly there are also demographic and psephological shifts in the electorate since then, not least increased volatility.
The Tories are deeply unpopular, and whilst Labour are not themselves popular, the mood is for change. That will give Labour a decent majority.
Edward Heath pulled it off, but under somewhat different circumstances. That remains the only peacetime election in the age of universal suffrage where a government with a double-digit majority has been replaced by a new government with a double digit majority of its own.
Also the only single term government since the war. 1970 was odd in several ways.
All elections have their own unique circumstances, but both 2017 and 2019 were particularly odd. I think 2015 was our last "normal" election, though even that was odd due to the Coalition.
But here again we come back to my point - those people arguing for a big Labour win are *assuming* 2019 was odd, and a 'get Brexit done' election. Having burrowed deep into the data it simply doesn't support that conclusion. Not forgetting that Brexit itself wasn't just about leaving the EU although it should have been.
Therefore, those who dismiss 2019 as a baseline (to reiterate) are making a serious error. It is a perfectly acceptable baseline and we again come back to Starmer has a mountain to climb.
As we see by the goalpost moving on here. First 2019 wasn't useful. Then I don't understand the depth of anger in the south...
The factor that those who say that 2019 should somehow be ignored is incumbency. 350 Tory MPs have had public money pouring into their constituencies, paying for full time staff, offices, office equipment and helping those MPs maintain a profile in the local media. That may not quite be the enormous advantage that new Labour had when the faucets were at maximum before the Coalition but it is still a tremendous help (the SNP in Scotland have a similar advantage by the way) and makes the figures about what is really being spent on the election somewhat bogus because a lot of the spending by the non incumbent party will simply be mirroring what the incumbents are getting for free.
At present there are 198 properly signed up Labour MPs in Parliament, with some outliers in very safe Labour seats who have been expelled for various reasons. That means the Tories have got 152x that financial advantage across the country. In Scotland the SNP have 41 more of the same benefits as Labour. It won't save them but it makes the mountain Labour have to climb truly precipitous.
With the new seat boundaries, the effect of incumbency will be much diminished.
Ian Wright us stepping down from Match of the Day. Can it be hoped that the ghastly Lineker will leave too.?
That is a shame. I rather like Ian Wright. He wears his heart on his sleeve, which I rather like.
Re Lineker - He is rather good at his job. What is your objection? Is it the money he costs or the fact that he tweaks the noses of politicians or that you don't think he should be allowed to while presenting on BBC? They seem to be the main reasons people object to him. Haven't seen anyone complain about the fact that he does a good job.
Lineker is a tad too smarmy for me, made worse by the ridiculous salary so not surprised he grates with those who don't like his politics, even if the level of their objection tends to the absurd.
I have a feeling that Lineker isn't particularly left wing. He's so familiar with the wind up merchant aspect of football, he simply can't resist baiting the gammons.
That dopamine rush hits hard. I've been taking notes.
But, if you get your kicks from winding up other people, it normally points to deeper rooted issues.
It's hard not to tbh. You make a detailed analysis of Rwanda/20mph/Israel and everyone loses their minds. Might as well embrace it.
When you add it all together, there is a profound dissatisfaction with populist politics based on grievance, outrage, and protest over single issues. I think there is a demand for stability and governance. Starmer's biggest selling point is exactly that he is a "human bollard". The ploy that hardline conservatives specialize in seems to be utterly out of favour.
This is probably all part of the structural changes that come from the demographic erosion of the boomer segment and the rise of millenials as the most powerful voting block. Millenials are on average more likely to be university educated, left leaning remainers with tolerant views about ethnicity and gender identity, holding a grievance against tories who have done nothing but ridicule them for their coffee and avocado toast preferences and excluded them from fair housing. The millenials are only going to get stronger over the next terms of government. There are also moving out of London into neighbouring areas to shift the balance in traditional tory regions.
The hard right boomer platform just isn't sustainable for a political party. My guess: this is a phase change in british politics. If the tories want to survive after being kicked out, they will have to ditch the boomers and rebrand conservativism for the millenials. (Nobody gives a rats arse about gen x of course)
Well done, I haven't read 3 paragraphs of quite such unmitigated tripe for a very long time.
You sound a teency weency bit butthurt, Lucky Guy. Chin up.
Labour do seem to have trimmed their sails to about 40% in a few polls recently, though.
It's not far off where Cameron was in December 2009, the year before the election, which led to a hung parliament.
The difference is that the Conservatives are in a worse position. Not that Labour are doing miles better.
But in 2010 the Lib Dems got 23%. If the LDs somehow surged to that level by the GE, there probably would be a hung parliament, with the Tories in third place!
Morning All, I don’t see all that many people these days, but one very common grumble is the state of the roads, especially the number, and depth, of potholes.
Incidentally, what Generation am I; born before WWII. Professional qualification, not degree, although required a couple of years full-time study.
May I ask where you live, OKC?
I am in Gloucestershire, which must have one of the worst potholes problems in the country. I am close to the border with Worcestershire, and when I drive north to Evesham, as I often do, I know as soon as I leave Gloucestershire by the state of the roads. It is exactly the same experience as I once had when driving from Berlin into the recently absorbed East Germany. The tires told you immediately when you crossed the old border.
Why would Gloucestershire roads be so much worse than surrounding counties? Is the county really more starved of funds than others?
Fwiw, it is a Conservative County Council, though that may change soon.
Belated reply, so apologies. I live in Essex, but some of the potholes are on trunk roads.
Oh God, the A13 - Twinned with The Gaza Strip.
The bit round Basildon is awful. However we’re near Colchester and there are roadworks on both the A12 and the A120!
Harking back to the last thread, it looks like the right is searching for and trialling negative material or smears (delete as appropriate) for the election campaign.
Yep. Tricky, on the face of it.
If SKS spams "I will always defend the Rule of Law" as a response throughout the campaign the Tories will give up.
The problem is a lot of negative campaigning will be below the radar. Starmer cannot respond if he does not even know the attacks are being made. (And if he does respond, he risks amplifying the message.) Microtargeted messages via social media, probably from deniable sources, even the same techniques as Russian trolls.
It always seems to be assumed that only the Tories can do this. ISTR the trade in ivory having traction in 2017, but was only noticed after the vote.
That Mone interview! Brass neck doesn't even begin to describe it, having trousered £millions selling faulty PPE using her Tory connections, and then having repeatedly denied it, now sitting there as if it was the most normal thing in the world. Even trying to claim that she hasn't really benefited because if her husband left her he'd take the money with him.
Ian Wright us stepping down from Match of the Day. Can it be hoped that the ghastly Lineker will leave too.?
That is a shame. I rather like Ian Wright. He wears his heart on his sleeve, which I rather like.
Re Lineker - He is rather good at his job. What is your objection? Is it the money he costs or the fact that he tweaks the noses of politicians or that you don't think he should be allowed to while presenting on BBC? They seem to be the main reasons people object to him. Haven't seen anyone complain about the fact that he does a good job.
Lineker is a tad too smarmy for me, made worse by the ridiculous salary so not surprised he grates with those who don't like his politics, even if the level of their objection tends to the absurd.
I have a feeling that Lineker isn't particularly left wing. He's so familiar with the wind up merchant aspect of football, he simply can't resist baiting the gammons.
That dopamine rush hits hard. I've been taking notes.
But, if you get your kicks from winding up other people, it normally points to deeper rooted issues.
It's hard not to tbh. You make a detailed analysis of Rwanda/20mph/Israel and everyone loses their minds. Might as well embrace it.
On the subject of 20mph, I take it we've all accepted Vaughan Gething will be the next FM of the rotten Borough of Cymru?
Am I right in thinking he doesn't speak Welsh? If so, he would be the first First Minister not to speak it fluently.
Any thoughts on the Mone interview? Aside from it being very funny?
I am sure our hearts go out to her and her husband.
What will an incoming Lab Govt do about it?
Welcome her back?
'Mone says she previously supported the Labour Party, as did her family, but withdrew her support in 2009 after the prime minister, Gordon Brown, increased the top income tax rate to 50%'
The volte face on here when previously staunch Tory supporters, criticised in the most lurid terms, are suddenly commended for seeing the light and embracing Labour once it's back comfortably in office will be a wonder to behold.
When you add it all together, there is a profound dissatisfaction with populist politics based on grievance, outrage, and protest over single issues. I think there is a demand for stability and governance. Starmer's biggest selling point is exactly that he is a "human bollard". The ploy that hardline conservatives specialize in seems to be utterly out of favour.
This is probably all part of the structural changes that come from the demographic erosion of the boomer segment and the rise of millenials as the most powerful voting block. Millenials are on average more likely to be university educated, left leaning remainers with tolerant views about ethnicity and gender identity, holding a grievance against tories who have done nothing but ridicule them for their coffee and avocado toast preferences and excluded them from fair housing. The millenials are only going to get stronger over the next terms of government. There are also moving out of London into neighbouring areas to shift the balance in traditional tory regions.
The hard right boomer platform just isn't sustainable for a political party. My guess: this is a phase change in british politics. If the tories want to survive after being kicked out, they will have to ditch the boomers and rebrand conservativism for the millenials. (Nobody gives a rats arse about gen x of course)
Well done, I haven't read 3 paragraphs of quite such unmitigated tripe for a very long time.
You're not the only one who skips over Leon's posts, I'm sure.
Ian Wright us stepping down from Match of the Day. Can it be hoped that the ghastly Lineker will leave too.?
That is a shame. I rather like Ian Wright. He wears his heart on his sleeve, which I rather like.
Re Lineker - He is rather good at his job. What is your objection? Is it the money he costs or the fact that he tweaks the noses of politicians or that you don't think he should be allowed to while presenting on BBC? They seem to be the main reasons people object to him. Haven't seen anyone complain about the fact that he does a good job.
Lineker is a tad too smarmy for me, made worse by the ridiculous salary so not surprised he grates with those who don't like his politics, even if the level of their objection tends to the absurd.
I have a feeling that Lineker isn't particularly left wing. He's so familiar with the wind up merchant aspect of football, he simply can't resist baiting the gammons.
That dopamine rush hits hard. I've been taking notes.
But, if you get your kicks from winding up other people, it normally points to deeper rooted issues.
It's hard not to tbh. You make a detailed analysis of Rwanda/20mph/Israel and everyone loses their minds. Might as well embrace it.
On the subject of 20mph, I take it we've all accepted Vaughan Gething will be the next FM of the rotten Borough of Cymru?
Am I right in thinking he doesn't speak Welsh? If so, he would be the first First Minister not to speak it fluently.
It's a dead language, speaking Latin is more relevant and useful.
Ian Wright us stepping down from Match of the Day. Can it be hoped that the ghastly Lineker will leave too.?
That is a shame. I rather like Ian Wright. He wears his heart on his sleeve, which I rather like.
Re Lineker - He is rather good at his job. What is your objection? Is it the money he costs or the fact that he tweaks the noses of politicians or that you don't think he should be allowed to while presenting on BBC? They seem to be the main reasons people object to him. Haven't seen anyone complain about the fact that he does a good job.
Ian Wright us stepping down from Match of the Day. Can it be hoped that the ghastly Lineker will leave too.?
That is a shame. I rather like Ian Wright. He wears his heart on his sleeve, which I rather like.
Re Lineker - He is rather good at his job. What is your objection? Is it the money he costs or the fact that he tweaks the noses of politicians or that you don't think he should be allowed to while presenting on BBC? They seem to be the main reasons people object to him. Haven't seen anyone complain about the fact that he does a good job.
Lineker is a tad too smarmy for me, made worse by the ridiculous salary so not surprised he grates with those who don't like his politics, even if the level of their objection tends to the absurd.
I have a feeling that Lineker isn't particularly left wing. He's so familiar with the wind up merchant aspect of football, he simply can't resist baiting the gammons.
That dopamine rush hits hard. I've been taking notes.
But, if you get your kicks from winding up other people, it normally points to deeper rooted issues.
It's hard not to tbh. You make a detailed analysis of Rwanda/20mph/Israel and everyone loses their minds. Might as well embrace it.
On the subject of 20mph, I take it we've all accepted Vaughan Gething will be the next FM of the rotten Borough of Cymru?
Am I right in thinking he doesn't speak Welsh? If so, he would be the first First Minister not to speak it fluently.
It's a dead language, speaking Latin is more relevant and useful.
Ian Wright us stepping down from Match of the Day. Can it be hoped that the ghastly Lineker will leave too.?
That is a shame. I rather like Ian Wright. He wears his heart on his sleeve, which I rather like.
Re Lineker - He is rather good at his job. What is your objection? Is it the money he costs or the fact that he tweaks the noses of politicians or that you don't think he should be allowed to while presenting on BBC? They seem to be the main reasons people object to him. Haven't seen anyone complain about the fact that he does a good job.
Lineker is a tad too smarmy for me, made worse by the ridiculous salary so not surprised he grates with those who don't like his politics, even if the level of their objection tends to the absurd.
I have a feeling that Lineker isn't particularly left wing. He's so familiar with the wind up merchant aspect of football, he simply can't resist baiting the gammons.
That dopamine rush hits hard. I've been taking notes.
But, if you get your kicks from winding up other people, it normally points to deeper rooted issues.
It's hard not to tbh. You make a detailed analysis of Rwanda/20mph/Israel and everyone loses their minds. Might as well embrace it.
On the subject of 20mph, I take it we've all accepted Vaughan Gething will be the next FM of the rotten Borough of Cymru?
Am I right in thinking he doesn't speak Welsh? If so, he would be the first First Minister not to speak it fluently.
It's a dead language, speaking Latin is more relevant and useful.
You ought ot have a holiday in Wales sometime. Listen to the bairns on the school run train up the coast from the Dovey and Barmouth estuaries. They seem very alive to me ...
Harking back to the last thread, it looks like the right is searching for and trialling negative material or smears (delete as appropriate) for the election campaign.
Yep. Tricky, on the face of it.
If SKS spams "I will always defend the Rule of Law" as a response throughout the campaign the Tories will give up.
The problem is a lot of negative campaigning will be below the radar. Starmer cannot respond if he does not even know the attacks are being made. (And if he does respond, he risks amplifying the message.) Microtargeted messages via social media, probably from deniable sources, even the same techniques as Russian trolls.
It always seems to be assumed that only the Tories can do this. ISTR the trade in ivory having traction in 2017, but was only noticed after the vote.
Anyone can do it but so far, it has been Tories, Brexiteers and Russians. See Dominic Cummings passim. Where Labour traditionally had an advantage was advertising and creative luvvies making films for free whereas the blue team were paying through the nose.
Any thoughts on the Mone interview? Aside from it being very funny?
I am sure our hearts go out to her and her husband.
What will an incoming Lab Govt do about it?
Welcome her back?
'Mone says she previously supported the Labour Party, as did her family, but withdrew her support in 2009 after the prime minister, Gordon Brown, increased the top income tax rate to 50%'
The volte face on here when previously staunch Tory supporters, criticised in the most lurid terms, are suddenly commended for seeing the light and embracing Labour once it's back comfortably in office will be a wonder to behold.
Would that be like the volte face the Tories committed when they embraced the 'former Labour supporter' sufficiently to elevate her to the Lords?
Ian Wright us stepping down from Match of the Day. Can it be hoped that the ghastly Lineker will leave too.?
That is a shame. I rather like Ian Wright. He wears his heart on his sleeve, which I rather like.
Re Lineker - He is rather good at his job. What is your objection? Is it the money he costs or the fact that he tweaks the noses of politicians or that you don't think he should be allowed to while presenting on BBC? They seem to be the main reasons people object to him. Haven't seen anyone complain about the fact that he does a good job.
He is an annoying twat
He’s a pretty good football pundit. He strikes me as the left wingers’ Clarkson. Good at his day job, and richly rewarded for it, but noisily opinionated in a trollish way that simultaneously makes him more newsworthy and also pisses off half the population.
So he needs to avoid punching one of his producers.
Ian Wright us stepping down from Match of the Day. Can it be hoped that the ghastly Lineker will leave too.?
That is a shame. I rather like Ian Wright. He wears his heart on his sleeve, which I rather like.
Re Lineker - He is rather good at his job. What is your objection? Is it the money he costs or the fact that he tweaks the noses of politicians or that you don't think he should be allowed to while presenting on BBC? They seem to be the main reasons people object to him. Haven't seen anyone complain about the fact that he does a good job.
Lineker is a tad too smarmy for me, made worse by the ridiculous salary so not surprised he grates with those who don't like his politics, even if the level of their objection tends to the absurd.
I have a feeling that Lineker isn't particularly left wing. He's so familiar with the wind up merchant aspect of football, he simply can't resist baiting the gammons.
That dopamine rush hits hard. I've been taking notes.
But, if you get your kicks from winding up other people, it normally points to deeper rooted issues.
It's hard not to tbh. You make a detailed analysis of Rwanda/20mph/Israel and everyone loses their minds. Might as well embrace it.
On the subject of 20mph, I take it we've all accepted Vaughan Gething will be the next FM of the rotten Borough of Cymru?
Am I right in thinking he doesn't speak Welsh? If so, he would be the first First Minister not to speak it fluently.
It's a dead language, speaking Latin is more relevant and useful.
Not in Wales it isn't.
The Welsh language was invented by somebody who was shit at Scrabble.
Ian Wright us stepping down from Match of the Day. Can it be hoped that the ghastly Lineker will leave too.?
That is a shame. I rather like Ian Wright. He wears his heart on his sleeve, which I rather like.
Re Lineker - He is rather good at his job. What is your objection? Is it the money he costs or the fact that he tweaks the noses of politicians or that you don't think he should be allowed to while presenting on BBC? They seem to be the main reasons people object to him. Haven't seen anyone complain about the fact that he does a good job.
Lineker is a tad too smarmy for me, made worse by the ridiculous salary so not surprised he grates with those who don't like his politics, even if the level of their objection tends to the absurd.
I have a feeling that Lineker isn't particularly left wing. He's so familiar with the wind up merchant aspect of football, he simply can't resist baiting the gammons.
That dopamine rush hits hard. I've been taking notes.
But, if you get your kicks from winding up other people, it normally points to deeper rooted issues.
It's hard not to tbh. You make a detailed analysis of Rwanda/20mph/Israel and everyone loses their minds. Might as well embrace it.
On the subject of 20mph, I take it we've all accepted Vaughan Gething will be the next FM of the rotten Borough of Cymru?
Am I right in thinking he doesn't speak Welsh? If so, he would be the first First Minister not to speak it fluently.
It's a dead language, speaking Latin is more relevant and useful.
You ought ot have a holiday in Wales sometime. Listen to the bairns on the school run train up the coast from the Dovey and Barmouth estuaries. They seem very alive to me ...
I love hearing Gaelic when I visit Scotland but not Welsh in Wales.
Harking back to the last thread, it looks like the right is searching for and trialling negative material or smears (delete as appropriate) for the election campaign.
Yep. Tricky, on the face of it.
If SKS spams "I will always defend the Rule of Law" as a response throughout the campaign the Tories will give up.
The problem is a lot of negative campaigning will be below the radar. Starmer cannot respond if he does not even know the attacks are being made. (And if he does respond, he risks amplifying the message.) Microtargeted messages via social media, probably from deniable sources, even the same techniques as Russian trolls.
It always seems to be assumed that only the Tories can do this. ISTR the trade in ivory having traction in 2017, but was only noticed after the vote.
Anyone can do it but so far, it has been Tories, Brexiteers and Russians. See Dominic Cummings passim. Where Labour traditionally had an advantage was advertising and creative luvvies making films for free whereas the blue team were paying through the nose.
Meanwhile the Lib Dems will be doing their own version of microtargeting, on the cheap, in target constituencies. Already have been for several years on water pollution.
Ian Wright us stepping down from Match of the Day. Can it be hoped that the ghastly Lineker will leave too.?
That is a shame. I rather like Ian Wright. He wears his heart on his sleeve, which I rather like.
Re Lineker - He is rather good at his job. What is your objection? Is it the money he costs or the fact that he tweaks the noses of politicians or that you don't think he should be allowed to while presenting on BBC? They seem to be the main reasons people object to him. Haven't seen anyone complain about the fact that he does a good job.
Lineker is a tad too smarmy for me, made worse by the ridiculous salary so not surprised he grates with those who don't like his politics, even if the level of their objection tends to the absurd.
I have a feeling that Lineker isn't particularly left wing. He's so familiar with the wind up merchant aspect of football, he simply can't resist baiting the gammons.
That dopamine rush hits hard. I've been taking notes.
But, if you get your kicks from winding up other people, it normally points to deeper rooted issues.
It's hard not to tbh. You make a detailed analysis of Rwanda/20mph/Israel and everyone loses their minds. Might as well embrace it.
On the subject of 20mph, I take it we've all accepted Vaughan Gething will be the next FM of the rotten Borough of Cymru?
Am I right in thinking he doesn't speak Welsh? If so, he would be the first First Minister not to speak it fluently.
It's a dead language, speaking Latin is more relevant and useful.
Not in Wales it isn't.
The Welsh language was invented by somebody who was shit at Scrabble.
I was expecting the article to be by @NickPalmer given the headline...
An interesting analysis, but drawing a conclusion rather different from mine. Because swings of such magnitude are very rare, I would say Labour is unlikely to get an overall majority. Not impossible, but unlikely.
A couple of other points:
1) It's not worth considering elections before 1885 for swing, due to the restricted electorate, and in many ways it isn't worth considering elections before 1918 due to the limited number of seats actually contested. In 1900, for example, 243 seats were returned unopposed.
2) This also solves the problem with 1918!
3) I would also note the swing in 1931 was fiendishly complicated as well, due to splits, electoral pacts and the economic crisis. So that swing is not much use as a comparison.
4) The 1945 general election was not only the only election since 1900 held in wartime* but brought an end to the longest parliament since the dissolution of the Long Parliament in 1660. It was also the last election at which multiple voting was allowed. I don't think the swing there tells us much either.
5) That means that there is only one election where there was a swing which - if replicated - would give Starmer's Labour a majority. The election concerned was 1997. That swing would give Starmer a majority of one.
That's a formidable task. It's remarkable it's even possible, but even allowing for Rishi Sunak being more deluded than a Republican Senator it seems to me in the words of Lord Peter Wimsey an improbable-possible.
*Technically 1918 was too but there was a ceasefire in effect, so I'm not counting that.
One thing that jumps out is that this exact argument could have been made in early 1997 to show that the chances of Blair getting a huge landslide majority in the then-imminent election were actually really tiny. After all, other than the elections you rule out, the largest prior comparable swing was just over 5%, in 1979. What are the odds of not only equaling or exceeding that... but near-doubling it? A straight swing from 1992 of 5% (which would be arguably at the top end of what Blair could expect) would see him with a majority of somewhere in the upper-thirties, and the Tories with 255-260 seats retained.
We have a small statistical sample (arguably too small for statistical conclusions to be reached), all of which have specific circumstances that could make them special in one way or another.
Ian Wright us stepping down from Match of the Day. Can it be hoped that the ghastly Lineker will leave too.?
That is a shame. I rather like Ian Wright. He wears his heart on his sleeve, which I rather like.
Re Lineker - He is rather good at his job. What is your objection? Is it the money he costs or the fact that he tweaks the noses of politicians or that you don't think he should be allowed to while presenting on BBC? They seem to be the main reasons people object to him. Haven't seen anyone complain about the fact that he does a good job.
Lineker is a tad too smarmy for me, made worse by the ridiculous salary so not surprised he grates with those who don't like his politics, even if the level of their objection tends to the absurd.
I have a feeling that Lineker isn't particularly left wing. He's so familiar with the wind up merchant aspect of football, he simply can't resist baiting the gammons.
That dopamine rush hits hard. I've been taking notes.
But, if you get your kicks from winding up other people, it normally points to deeper rooted issues.
It's hard not to tbh. You make a detailed analysis of Rwanda/20mph/Israel and everyone loses their minds. Might as well embrace it.
On the subject of 20mph, I take it we've all accepted Vaughan Gething will be the next FM of the rotten Borough of Cymru?
Am I right in thinking he doesn't speak Welsh? If so, he would be the first First Minister not to speak it fluently.
It's a dead language, speaking Latin is more relevant and useful.
You ought ot have a holiday in Wales sometime. Listen to the bairns on the school run train up the coast from the Dovey and Barmouth estuaries. They seem very alive to me ...
Like Gaels on a smaller scale, Welsh speakers only learn their dead language to make tourists paranoid.
I was expecting the article to be by @NickPalmer given the headline...
An interesting analysis, but drawing a conclusion rather different from mine. Because swings of such magnitude are very rare, I would say Labour is unlikely to get an overall majority. Not impossible, but unlikely.
.
But the point made repeatedly by @Heathener with which I agree, is that 2019 was a false baseline. The Tories, led by a fairground huckster, offered the country magic beans. And the country took it.
The real baseline in my view is much closer to 2015. Although clearly there are also demographic and psephological shifts in the electorate since then, not least increased volatility.
The Tories are deeply unpopular, and whilst Labour are not themselves popular, the mood is for change. That will give Labour a decent majority.
Edward Heath pulled it off, but under somewhat different circumstances. That remains the only peacetime election in the age of universal suffrage where a government with a double-digit majority has been replaced by a new government with a double digit majority of its own.
Also the only single term government since the war. 1970 was odd in several ways...
coughcoughEnochPowellcoughcough1970coughcough1974
Plenty of racists twats around this time too.
I'd be uncomfortable with any politician who hung around with the likes of Meloni and Musk. Fortunately none of our senior political figures would go out of their way to rub shoulders with people like that.
I suspect quite a lot of people would not mind hanging about with her given your average politician looks like the back end of a bus
Ian Wright us stepping down from Match of the Day. Can it be hoped that the ghastly Lineker will leave too.?
That is a shame. I rather like Ian Wright. He wears his heart on his sleeve, which I rather like.
Re Lineker - He is rather good at his job. What is your objection? Is it the money he costs or the fact that he tweaks the noses of politicians or that you don't think he should be allowed to while presenting on BBC? They seem to be the main reasons people object to him. Haven't seen anyone complain about the fact that he does a good job.
Lineker is a tad too smarmy for me, made worse by the ridiculous salary so not surprised he grates with those who don't like his politics, even if the level of their objection tends to the absurd.
I have a feeling that Lineker isn't particularly left wing. He's so familiar with the wind up merchant aspect of football, he simply can't resist baiting the gammons.
That dopamine rush hits hard. I've been taking notes.
But, if you get your kicks from winding up other people, it normally points to deeper rooted issues.
It's hard not to tbh. You make a detailed analysis of Rwanda/20mph/Israel and everyone loses their minds. Might as well embrace it.
On the subject of 20mph, I take it we've all accepted Vaughan Gething will be the next FM of the rotten Borough of Cymru?
Am I right in thinking he doesn't speak Welsh? If so, he would be the first First Minister not to speak it fluently.
It's a dead language, speaking Latin is more relevant and useful.
You ought ot have a holiday in Wales sometime. Listen to the bairns on the school run train up the coast from the Dovey and Barmouth estuaries. They seem very alive to me ...
Like Gaels on a smaller scale, Welsh speakers only learn their dead language to make tourists paranoid.
Ian Wright us stepping down from Match of the Day. Can it be hoped that the ghastly Lineker will leave too.?
That is a shame. I rather like Ian Wright. He wears his heart on his sleeve, which I rather like.
Re Lineker - He is rather good at his job. What is your objection? Is it the money he costs or the fact that he tweaks the noses of politicians or that you don't think he should be allowed to while presenting on BBC? They seem to be the main reasons people object to him. Haven't seen anyone complain about the fact that he does a good job.
Lineker is a tad too smarmy for me, made worse by the ridiculous salary so not surprised he grates with those who don't like his politics, even if the level of their objection tends to the absurd.
I have a feeling that Lineker isn't particularly left wing. He's so familiar with the wind up merchant aspect of football, he simply can't resist baiting the gammons.
That dopamine rush hits hard. I've been taking notes.
But, if you get your kicks from winding up other people, it normally points to deeper rooted issues.
It's hard not to tbh. You make a detailed analysis of Rwanda/20mph/Israel and everyone loses their minds. Might as well embrace it.
On the subject of 20mph, I take it we've all accepted Vaughan Gething will be the next FM of the rotten Borough of Cymru?
Am I right in thinking he doesn't speak Welsh? If so, he would be the first First Minister not to speak it fluently.
It's a dead language, speaking Latin is more relevant and useful.
You ought ot have a holiday in Wales sometime. Listen to the bairns on the school run train up the coast from the Dovey and Barmouth estuaries. They seem very alive to me ...
I love hearing Gaelic when I visit Scotland but not Welsh in Wales.
Ian Wright us stepping down from Match of the Day. Can it be hoped that the ghastly Lineker will leave too.?
That is a shame. I rather like Ian Wright. He wears his heart on his sleeve, which I rather like.
Re Lineker - He is rather good at his job. What is your objection? Is it the money he costs or the fact that he tweaks the noses of politicians or that you don't think he should be allowed to while presenting on BBC? They seem to be the main reasons people object to him. Haven't seen anyone complain about the fact that he does a good job.
Lineker is a tad too smarmy for me, made worse by the ridiculous salary so not surprised he grates with those who don't like his politics, even if the level of their objection tends to the absurd.
I have a feeling that Lineker isn't particularly left wing. He's so familiar with the wind up merchant aspect of football, he simply can't resist baiting the gammons.
That dopamine rush hits hard. I've been taking notes.
But, if you get your kicks from winding up other people, it normally points to deeper rooted issues.
It's hard not to tbh. You make a detailed analysis of Rwanda/20mph/Israel and everyone loses their minds. Might as well embrace it.
On the subject of 20mph, I take it we've all accepted Vaughan Gething will be the next FM of the rotten Borough of Cymru?
Am I right in thinking he doesn't speak Welsh? If so, he would be the first First Minister not to speak it fluently.
It's a dead language, speaking Latin is more relevant and useful.
You ought ot have a holiday in Wales sometime. Listen to the bairns on the school run train up the coast from the Dovey and Barmouth estuaries. They seem very alive to me ...
I love hearing Gaelic when I visit Scotland but not Welsh in Wales.
Depends where you have your holiday home.
BTW, did you see the legislation has been passed to permit (not require) double council tax on second homes, but also be a bit more sensible about new buyers of empty homes to give them a chance to renovate/repair?
That Mone interview! Brass neck doesn't even begin to describe it, having trousered £millions selling faulty PPE using her Tory connections, and then having repeatedly denied it, now sitting there as if it was the most normal thing in the world. Even trying to claim that she hasn't really benefited because if her husband left her he'd take the money with him.
Oh come on, be fair. As the poor woman said herself about her untruths: "...I wasn’t trying to pull the wool over anyone’s eyes"
Lies are what the little people tell; important people like Mone are just 'protecting their family', or somesuch bollocks.
That Mone interview! Brass neck doesn't even begin to describe it, having trousered £millions selling faulty PPE using her Tory connections, and then having repeatedly denied it, now sitting there as if it was the most normal thing in the world. Even trying to claim that she hasn't really benefited because if her husband left her he'd take the money with him.
Oh come on, be fair. As the poor woman said herself about her untruths: "...I wasn’t trying to pull the wool over anyone’s eyes"
Lies are what the little people tell; important people like Mone are just 'protecting their family', or somesuch bollocks.
At some point, one nation and Business/Thatcherite conservatives need to start to fight for control of the right, rather than bowing down to and toying with Trumpian populists. Today, they look like a dying breed.
Who on the right can stand up to Braverman, Farage and the divisive menagerie.
Who on the left can?
It will keep happening - indeed, it will grow - until someone in office gets a grip on migration.
This will shortly become Labour's problem. And putting your fingers in your ears isn't a strategy.
Immigration is an issue that largely concerns Tory and Reform voters. It is far less of a primary concern for everyone else. There was a very good piece on this in the FT at the end if last week.
Labour need to have answers to this, or you might find those Tory and Reform voter numbers grow rather quickly.
Given the record high immigration has happened under the Conservatives, why would people worried about the levels of immigration move to the Tories?
I think some of the routes that have led to high immigration are going to reduce whoever is in power. Student numbers will level out. The Ukraine and Hong Kong schemes will see fewer coming.
Comments
https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1735587037346922597?s=46&t=rw5lNVUgmRPVyKpxfV_pPQ
That means, in the absence of a trade wind of voters common to both elections actually swinging towards the Tories as they age, there is an inbuilt initial swing to Labour from death and first time voters.
The scale of this is that the Tory lead over Labour narrows by about 1 million voters due to death (or infirmity) removing people from the electorate and around half a million due to new voters. So, 3/4 million people have to age and Torify at each election, just to negate that.
Without that, around 2.5-3% demographic swing is built in before a single person drops off or switches from voting Tory.
That wasn't anywhere near as True in 1997.
The real comedy is that the people who foam on about this themselves have no plan about how we fill the sudden huge voids in the labour force...
It has always been absurd as a deterrent. If you are prepared to risk death a small chance of be one of hundred souls who go to Rwanda is irrelevant.
Rwanda was and is , like all Boris policies, all about spending vast sums of government money to generate headlines in the Daily Mail and outrage on GB news.
The new right feed off immigration, they do not want to reduce tension.
An elegant solution suggests itself...
It isn't for two reasons, we don't build the right housing and infrastructure for it, and we lie to ourselves about how much to expect which does then create anti-immigrant feeling amongst those who are lied to and most impacted by the lack of housing and infrastructure.
Re Lineker - He is rather good at his job. What is your objection? Is it the money he costs or the fact that he tweaks the noses of politicians or that you don't think he should be allowed to while presenting on BBC? They seem to be the main reasons people object to him. Haven't seen anyone complain about the fact that he does a good job.
I consider GE19 to be an apple amongst pears. Boris/Brexit/Corbyn were wot did it and they've all gone. More fundamentally that was a Brexit election, THE Brexit election really, and this one won't be. The only Brexit angle this time is the extent to which the Hard Leave, anti-immigration, country is full, charity begins at home (if at all) vote which came out heavily for the Cons in 2019 defects to RUK or stays in the pubs clubs and tanning salons. This will impact the size of the Labour majority but not the fact of it. It's going to be a big majority imo and there's more chance of VERY big than small or modest.
When I conceptualize (as one must) the result of GE24 I find it helpful to break it into two parts. First we get a 'normal' opposition win on Time For A Change after 14 years. This will then be boosted (a kind of one off adjustment if you like) by the unwinding of the temporary bespoke voter coalition that decided GE19: Leavers, Remainers weary of it all (Brexit, that is, not Life), Boris fans, Corbyn anti-fans, lots of overlap there obviously but that was the essence of it. It hammered Labour when it came together and by the same token will flatter them now as it falls apart.
The notion that the Tories will be returned to power for what would be a fifth consecutive term has become more snigger-worthy as this year has unfolded. That is the core explanation for the evaporation of Conservative faith in Rishi Sunak and the strengthening of Sir Keir Starmer’s authority over Labour. This was not universally regarded as a given when the year began. The idea that Mr Sunak might have it in him to pull off an against expectations rebound, replicating what John Major did in the run-up to the 1992 election, was much discussed.
One senior Conservative tells me that, over the year, “I’ve reduced our odds on winning from 30% to 10% to 1%.” “Nothing is working,” sighs one veteran Conservative who has been around long enough to have been present for his party’s dramatic ejection from power in 1997. “We may have reached the stage where nothing will work.”
“He’s f***ing terrible at politics,” a former Conservative cabinet minister groaned to me in the autumn during Mr Sunak’s badly executed and highly divisive U-turns on net zero and HS2. That view has become more prevalent within his party as the year has grown older.
Politics is often a confidence game. Success breeds success, failure foments failure. The Tory leader, a man whose previous life had told him he was a winner, has struggled to put a brave face on experiencing being a loser.
The PM ends this year with personal approval ratings that have become atrocious enough to be comparable with the depths plumbed by Boris Johnson at the time of his defenestration, though they are not yet quite as terrible as those of Liz Truss at her nadir. There doesn’t have to be an election for another 13 months. So Mr Sunak has still got time to work on breaking her record.
Then, all bets are off.
I live in Essex, but some of the potholes are on trunk roads.
@BritainElects
·
3h
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 40% (-3)
CON: 27% (+1)
LDEM: 11% (-)
REF: 9% (-)
GRN: 7% (+1)
via
@OpiniumResearch
, 13 - 15 Dec
What will an incoming Lab Govt do about it?
Labour leader applied to European Court of Human Rights to reverse Germany's prohibition of Hizb ut-Tahrir
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/12/16/keir-starmer-represented-extremist-islamist-group/ (£££)
Harking back to the last thread, it looks like the right is searching for and trialling negative material or smears (delete as appropriate) for the election campaign.
Just to put your reply in a way I think you might appreciate, what you have effectively said is that because perpetual motion machines haven’t worked up to now doesn’t mean AI may not be about to change it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pqrfv8QkmYA
'Mone says she previously supported the Labour Party, as did her family, but withdrew her support in 2009 after the prime minister, Gordon Brown, increased the top income tax rate to 50%'
Hope you are on at 10-1 minimum though 👍
I don’t believe Labour will poll in the mid 40s in an election. 40 to me feels more realistic. For some time now, Labour have been the default for many people because of how shocking the Tories have been. As the election nears, some of that vote will likely peel away.
I think another problem Starmer has is that he has been somewhat of a tabula rasa for a lot of voters. He is going to have to start putting meat on the bones in the new year (personally I think he has left it a bit later than he should have done). That comes with risks.
I still think Labour are on course for a majority, and the Tories are in for a bad result. Tactical voting on its own could see the Tories doing badly on seat numbers even if there is some improvement in their vote share. People want to kick this government. But I do expect Labour to have a more difficult ride in the new year.
It’s clear that intelligence failures led to the attack . Surely these wouldn’t be repeated so how much more death and destruction will they inflict on Gazans .
If SKS spams "I will always defend the Rule of Law" as a response throughout the campaign the Tories will give up.
I care.
I would like to see her behind bars and/or lose her seat in the Lords
I would be shocked if Lab try to even recover any monies from her
Gary Thomas, unqualified investigator on Horizon:
we had somebody who would give a witness statement from Fujitsu that all the cases seemed to suggest that there was no product integrity with Horizon.”
(a) In Scotland, plenty of MSPs as well, and about half are Unionist parties - so considerably balanced out, as folk don't differentiate between the devolved and non-devolved aspects of policy when voting.
(b) 152x? I make it 350/198 = 1.76X (or "76% advantage over"
It's not far off where Cameron was in December 2009, the year before the election, which led to a hung parliament.
The difference is that the Conservatives are in a worse position. Not that Labour are doing miles better.
https://www.postofficescandal.uk/post/garys-years-of-hurt/
That dopamine rush hits hard. I've been taking notes.
Talking about soccer, back Manchester United to win today you can get around 8/1 because Liverpool haven't been playing well recently.
Also on Højlund to score anytime and to have an assist at 40/1.
No way Liverpool win 7 nil again which you can get at 100/1 with some bookies.
If the LDs somehow surged to that level by the GE, there probably would be a hung parliament,
with the Tories in third place!
ISTR the trade in ivory having traction in 2017, but was only noticed after the vote.
Am I right in thinking he doesn't speak Welsh? If so, he would be the first First Minister not to speak it fluently.
No principles at all
So he needs to avoid punching one of his producers.
https://www.siopcwlwm.co.uk/products/scrabble-yn-gymraeg
After all, other than the elections you rule out, the largest prior comparable swing was just over 5%, in 1979.
What are the odds of not only equaling or exceeding that... but near-doubling it?
A straight swing from 1992 of 5% (which would be arguably at the top end of what Blair could expect) would see him with a majority of somewhere in the upper-thirties, and the Tories with 255-260 seats retained.
We have a small statistical sample (arguably too small for statistical conclusions to be reached), all of which have specific circumstances that could make them special in one way or another.
https://www.scottishlegal.com/articles/legislation-to-double-tax-second-homes-passed
Lies are what the little people tell; important people like Mone are just 'protecting their family', or somesuch bollocks.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/dec/17/michelle-mone-admits-she-stands-to-benefit-from-60m-pounds-ppe-profit
I think some of the routes that have led to high immigration are going to reduce whoever is in power. Student numbers will level out. The Ukraine and Hong Kong schemes will see fewer coming.