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Just 38% of GE2019 CON voters are certain to do the same next time – politicalbetting.com
Just 38% of GE2019 CON voters are certain to do the same next time – politicalbetting.com
The above is from the dataset of YouGov’s latest national voting poll for the Times and the group I focus upon are the responses to the second set of data. This shows the responses when the don’t knows are included.
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https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_231213_W.pdf
I can only think of three explanations: the polls are wrong; all their victories are merely local protest votes; or there is a massive level of tactical voting in favour of whoever will beat the Tories.
If it is the latter, we could be looking at an outcome for the Tories that is far, far worse than the seat forecasts are predicting.
I suspect something like
anti-Tory 30
Labour 20
Tory 15
anti-Labour 10
refUK 5
LD 5
However, they'll do a lot better than the Tories because of anti-Con tactical voting. Still, it's a castle built on sand.
52 Con 20 DK in Dec 21
In Jun 22 it was 50 20
In Jun 21 it was 71 13
Now it’s 38 24
2019 Tory to Reform over that period
5,5,9 and now 16
RefUK nearly second place with Leavers though -
Con 40
Lab 26
RefUK 24
LD 5
- Lower turnout.
- Little incentive to back Con in 2024 that didn't exist in 2019.
- Very low support among first-time qualified (either immigrant or under-23s)
When we have proportional voting the LD (and Green) Votes are more solid.
Its like the Mirror made NOTW look like amateurs at this stuff, but strangely none of the media were interested when the phone hacking scandal exploded.
In 2019 a lot of people switched to LD because of the Brexit issue and as an alternative to Corbyn, but voted in the wrong places. That said we did see a lot of second places across the South which make a good foundation for this election. This time I think the party will lose a lot of voters who had been motivated by Brexit or put off Labour by Corbyn, but will gain a lot more tactical Labour-inclined voters, as well as wavering Tories no longer scared of letting Corbyn in.
So I don't think Lib Dem support is a house built on sand per se, more it's a ship floating on the ocean currents, sometimes drifting one way or the other, sometimes up on the crest of a particular wave and at other times in the trough between seas.
Not reliable for any GEs beyond the next one, but reliable enough for this one.
Who would you decide to give so much air time to immigration when you've failed on it for thirteen years?
They have planned levels of staffing years in advance. IIRC those estimates have always been on the low side as well.
One big mistake government made when they changed uni fees, they could have come up with a scheme to offset or discount fees against years then served in NHS.
I’ve also long advocated that for medics and teachers, student fees should be paid off over several years. With all payments while working in the designated profession handled as well.
There's a decent slice of the electorate that never votes- a lot of the success of 2016 and 2019 was motivating them to vote for the first time. There's decent anecdotal evidence that many of them won't vote this time.
But also- how many disillousioned Conservative wets will just sit this one out? And how many Labour wets who couldn't bring themselves to vote for Angry Jez will be happy enough to turn out for Boring Old Starmer?
Blooming hard to poll for, I suspect, but it's one of the things that drives election results.
Given last time around the choice was essentially Boris v Corbyn I suspect a chunk of regular voters sat that one out, but will be back for this one.
Actually, it's not true about PR delivering from the Lib Dems. It certainly benefits the Greens and the likes of UKIP / Reform, but in elections for the Welsh / Scottish devolved parliaments, the Lib Dems don't do any better than their Westminster shares.
Everyone in journalism was using the “hack*” the provide corroboration for stories. The Guardian printed a story saying that they had used it - but only against bad people
*The so called hack was simply that the default password for mobile phone voice messages was set to a single value by several networks.
The only against the bad people....always makes me chuckle when the BBC and Guardian use hacked / stolen info provided by bad actors, but get very sniffy about others doing the same.
So we're talking about a tenth of the electorate for RUK, perhaps more, and all of them are Leavers. These are our Deplorables. Eg whenever there's a UK survey on Donald Trump you get 12% or so who "really like" him. That's these people. Positively wanted a No Deal Brexit? That was about 12% too. Same ones. Pity the polls are anonymous, otherwise we could have some names and addresses.
Before anyone accuses me of smearing Leavers with offensive generalisations, I'd like to be clear about what the above state of affairs also means. It means that three quarters of Leavers, a clear clear majority, are not deplorable. Well they might be, but not in this sense.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-67728331
No wonder Tory MPs are troubled.
I’d have thought turnout will be down myself.
Quite surprising, very surprising in fact, that the PM who won most votes in a GE was Major with 14m, followed by Boris with 13.9. I would have though Thatcher and Blair would be first and second
* of course online hackers have exploited this, I mean the media etc.
But - generally - voters are more supportive of high skilled immigration, than low skilled.
Focus on tax? It’s gone up under the Tories
Economic growth? Labour leads massively on this now
Public services? Hardly
Trans and other culture stuff? Too niche
Net Zero and motorists? They tried that and it didn’t work beyond Uxbridge
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 41% (-5)
CON: 24% (-1)
LDM: 13% (+1)
GRN: 9% (+3)
RFM: 7% (+3)
SNP: 3% (-2)
Via @IpsosUK, 1-7 Dec.
Changes w/ 1-8 Nov
50% Slightly more competent and significantly more stable version of what we have had for the last couple of decades without the drama and division
20% Genuinely reforming and positive government, for a bit at least
15% Overwhelmed by public finances and collapses into squabbles between left and centre left
15% Something else
Happy to take my chances with that even if its not very impressive.
How was Corbyn doing a year before 2017 or 2019?
You got quite a few celebrities in there. I demonstrated the “hack” to a few people - using my own voicemail. I was trying to get as many people to change the pin as possible - this was before the scandal hit the news.
The lightbulb moment when they realised that anyone with their phone number…
Trust and probity? Hmmmm… no.
Supporting Ukraine?
Dr Who getting better?
Boris actually more surprising than Major, but population had grown significantly since 1992.
Most people didn’t know this secondary capability existed. So they never reset the default pin, or even knew it existed.
The thing is a large number of all parties’ voters are tactical. Lots of Labour voters are voting not Tory. Lots of Conservative voters are voting not socialism.
But he's crap and must resign. Of course.
UK population 1992: 57.6m
UK population 2019: 66.8m
And if you look at the number of people over the age of 65, the growth is even more stark.
Starmer is trying to shove all his Brexit opposition, ‘People’s Vote’ etc, down the memory hole, saying he ‘Voted Remain’ as if he were just a normal punter, and I don’t think members of the public see Rishi as much to do with Leave - I’d never heard of him until about four years ago. So that angle is not going to be much use to him to try and create a wedge.
And we, here, mocked them !!
Also, a lot of the growth in population from 92-19 is based on immigrants and their children, who are not thought of as natural Tories
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/67724742
It seems our lady cricketers are no more successful than the men.
That means we're actively discouraging people from working, creating demand for immigration.
I loathe it, and don't use it.
It is by far the most insecure digital communication method there is.
Glenn Youngkin praises Trump on economy, downplays ‘dictator’ fears
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/13/glenn-youngkin-praises-trump-on-economy-downplays-dictator-fears.html
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin said he will support Donald Trump if he becomes the 2024 Republican presidential nominee.
Youngkin downplayed critics’ concerns that the former president would seek “retribution” if granted a second term...
I think @Jim_Miller was, at one point, a fan ?
Quite what there is to praise Trump about on the economy is left as an exercise for the reader.
Also, its going full circle, lots of people use WhatsApp voice notes now rather than type messages.
SMS is so insecure that many experts argue that it shouldn’t be used for 2FA - the one where they send you a text with a code to verify a login.
It's also a bigger lead than Miliband or Brown ever managed, or Blair post-Iraq.
But to your question, I think that's fairly easy to answer.
In 1997, Blair came pretty close to Major's 1992 total, with 13.5m votes vs 14m. And the UK population had only grown 0.5m between those elections. But what really changed in the post Major era was that turnout collapsed. In 1992, it was 77.7%, while in 2001 it was just 59.4%.
When elections are considered a foregone conclusion (2001), or where voters aren't that keen on any of the options (2005), people tend to stay home.
When it's something they really care about (like the Scottish or EU referendums), then turnout can be extremely high.
We are not back in the 1990's chaps.