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Just 38% of GE2019 CON voters are certain to do the same next time – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited December 2023 in General
imageJust 38% of GE2019 CON voters are certain to do the same next time – politicalbetting.com

The above is from the dataset of YouGov’s latest national voting poll for the Times and the group I focus upon are the responses to the second set of data. This shows the responses when the don’t knows are included.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,455
    First?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,075
    So near and yet so far from first
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,793
    First like Rishi...
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,455
    If I read the sub sets correctly the latest YouGov has 84% of remainers voting for Reform, so I think something may have gone awry.

    https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_231213_W.pdf


  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,529
    FPT

    ...On immigration and wages. Because of a world wide shortage of degreed and qualified white collar professionals (Doctors etc), there is no practical level of immigration that can reduce wages...

    It's almost like - bear with me here - it would be a better idea to train up the locals instead of continually trying to import people to do the job. I know! Amazing! What a wacky idea!
  • Also of interest are the figures for the LibDems, where just 41% of their 2019 voters are committed to voting for them again, with 31% going to Labour. And yet, they keep winning elections, which is what really counts.

    I can only think of three explanations: the polls are wrong; all their victories are merely local protest votes; or there is a massive level of tactical voting in favour of whoever will beat the Tories.

    If it is the latter, we could be looking at an outcome for the Tories that is far, far worse than the seat forecasts are predicting.
  • Of course the actual percentage is even lower because a material number of 2019 Con voters will be dead.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,848
    What were the splits for 2019 Tories this time in 2021?
  • Also of interest are the figures for the LibDems, where just 41% of their 2019 voters are committed to voting for them again, with 31% going to Labour. And yet, they keep winning elections, which is what really counts.

    I can only think of three explanations: the polls are wrong; all their victories are merely local protest votes; or there is a massive level of tactical voting in favour of whoever will beat the Tories.

    If it is the latter, we could be looking at an outcome for the Tories that is far, far worse than the seat forecasts are predicting.

    What would the polls look like if the options in the same voting intention question were the named parties, plus anti-Labour, anti-Tory?

    I suspect something like

    anti-Tory 30
    Labour 20
    Tory 15
    anti-Labour 10
    refUK 5
    LD 5
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,529

    Of course the actual percentage is even lower because a material number of 2019 Con voters will be dead.

    It's a good point. What about the number of 2019 non-voters/voters-for-other-parties will be CON this time?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,001
    algarkirk said:

    If I read the sub sets correctly the latest YouGov has 84% of remainers voting for Reform, so I think something may have gone awry.

    https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_231213_W.pdf

    Ha yes. I wonder what that % would actually be? Single digits surely.
  • kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    If I read the sub sets correctly the latest YouGov has 84% of remainers voting for Reform, so I think something may have gone awry.

    https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_231213_W.pdf

    Ha yes. I wonder what that % would actually be? Single digits surely.
    Its 1% in the following table for GE tomorrow.
  • Whereas 41% of 2019 Lib Dem voters are likely to stick with their team ...

    However, they'll do a lot better than the Tories because of anti-Con tactical voting. Still, it's a castle built on sand.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,848
    isam said:

    What were the splits for 2019 Tories this time in 2021?

    It was

    52 Con 20 DK in Dec 21

    In Jun 22 it was 50 20
    In Jun 21 it was 71 13

    Now it’s 38 24

    2019 Tory to Reform over that period

    5,5,9 and now 16

  • kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    If I read the sub sets correctly the latest YouGov has 84% of remainers voting for Reform, so I think something may have gone awry.

    https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_231213_W.pdf

    Ha yes. I wonder what that % would actually be? Single digits surely.
    If you look at the table below (the one including DKs etc), then it's 1% - so either 1 or 2% with DKs etc stripped out.

    RefUK nearly second place with Leavers though -

    Con 40
    Lab 26
    RefUK 24
    LD 5
  • viewcode said:

    Of course the actual percentage is even lower because a material number of 2019 Con voters will be dead.

    It's a good point. What about the number of 2019 non-voters/voters-for-other-parties will be CON this time?
    Minimal.

    - Lower turnout.
    - Little incentive to back Con in 2024 that didn't exist in 2019.
    - Very low support among first-time qualified (either immigrant or under-23s)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,388

    Whereas 41% of 2019 Lib Dem voters are likely to stick with their team ...

    However, they'll do a lot better than the Tories because of anti-Con tactical voting. Still, it's a castle built on sand.

    No, I just think that LD voters are realistic enough to know that in many seats they will not win. Its not flakey LDs is the baleful effects of FPTP.

    When we have proportional voting the LD (and Green) Votes are more solid.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2023
    So Piers Morgan knew his journalists were phone hacking....blow me down with a feather.

    Its like the Mirror made NOTW look like amateurs at this stuff, but strangely none of the media were interested when the phone hacking scandal exploded.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,309

    Also of interest are the figures for the LibDems, where just 41% of their 2019 voters are committed to voting for them again, with 31% going to Labour. And yet, they keep winning elections, which is what really counts.

    I can only think of three explanations: the polls are wrong; all their victories are merely local protest votes; or there is a massive level of tactical voting in favour of whoever will beat the Tories.

    If it is the latter, we could be looking at an outcome for the Tories that is far, far worse than the seat forecasts are predicting.

    I think there is always a high degree of churn in Lib Dem VI because few people are core Lib Dems. Most people vote for them for tactical reasons or based on specific single issues, or just as a protest. Mush as I'd love that not to be the case, it is.

    In 2019 a lot of people switched to LD because of the Brexit issue and as an alternative to Corbyn, but voted in the wrong places. That said we did see a lot of second places across the South which make a good foundation for this election. This time I think the party will lose a lot of voters who had been motivated by Brexit or put off Labour by Corbyn, but will gain a lot more tactical Labour-inclined voters, as well as wavering Tories no longer scared of letting Corbyn in.

    So I don't think Lib Dem support is a house built on sand per se, more it's a ship floating on the ocean currents, sometimes drifting one way or the other, sometimes up on the crest of a particular wave and at other times in the trough between seas.
  • Whereas 41% of 2019 Lib Dem voters are likely to stick with their team ...

    However, they'll do a lot better than the Tories because of anti-Con tactical voting. Still, it's a castle built on sand.

    I think at this point anti-Con votes are more like concrete rather than sand for the next GE. People have had enough, we are the biggest voting group and will be the most reliable. There is little enthusiasm even for pro-Labour or the minor parties either.

    Not reliable for any GEs beyond the next one, but reliable enough for this one.
  • Rishi Sunak is absolutely crap at politics.

    Who would you decide to give so much air time to immigration when you've failed on it for thirteen years?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,037
    viewcode said:

    FPT

    ...On immigration and wages. Because of a world wide shortage of degreed and qualified white collar professionals (Doctors etc), there is no practical level of immigration that can reduce wages...

    It's almost like - bear with me here - it would be a better idea to train up the locals instead of continually trying to import people to do the job. I know! Amazing! What a wacky idea!
    I’ve long advocated increasing the number of training places (university and otherwise) to match the planned requirements of the NHS.

    They have planned levels of staffing years in advance. IIRC those estimates have always been on the low side as well.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2023

    viewcode said:

    FPT

    ...On immigration and wages. Because of a world wide shortage of degreed and qualified white collar professionals (Doctors etc), there is no practical level of immigration that can reduce wages...

    It's almost like - bear with me here - it would be a better idea to train up the locals instead of continually trying to import people to do the job. I know! Amazing! What a wacky idea!
    I’ve long advocated increasing the number of training places (university and otherwise) to match the planned requirements of the NHS.

    They have planned levels of staffing years in advance. IIRC those estimates have always been on the low side as well.
    It isn't like traditionally medical courses aren't massive oversubscribed unlike say engineering where there are shortages but unis struggle to fill all places. So lots of demand, crazy not to have the supply.

    One big mistake government made when they changed uni fees, they could have come up with a scheme to offset or discount fees against years then served in NHS.
  • So Piers Morgan knew his journalists were phone hacking....blow me down with a feather.

    Its like the Mirror made NOTW look like amateurs at this stuff, but strangely none of the media were interested when the phone hacking scandal exploded.

    It is surely time for those execs to do some self reflection.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789

    Also of interest are the figures for the LibDems, where just 41% of their 2019 voters are committed to voting for them again, with 31% going to Labour. And yet, they keep winning elections, which is what really counts.

    I can only think of three explanations: the polls are wrong; all their victories are merely local protest votes; or there is a massive level of tactical voting in favour of whoever will beat the Tories.

    If it is the latter, we could be looking at an outcome for the Tories that is far, far worse than the seat forecasts are predicting.

    The Lib Dems doing much better in local elections than their national poll rating has been a feature of politics for decades.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,908
    The interesting figures there are 24% of 2019 Conservative voters don't know and 16% Reform to only 10% now Labour
  • So Piers Morgan knew his journalists were phone hacking....blow me down with a feather.

    Its like the Mirror made NOTW look like amateurs at this stuff, but strangely none of the media were interested when the phone hacking scandal exploded.

    It is surely time for those execs to do some self reflection.
    The only paper who even considered wider phone "hacking" and what i would call proper hacking was the Independent. Lots of stories that these practices were used for much more serious things than snooping on who was shagging who.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,037

    viewcode said:

    FPT

    ...On immigration and wages. Because of a world wide shortage of degreed and qualified white collar professionals (Doctors etc), there is no practical level of immigration that can reduce wages...

    It's almost like - bear with me here - it would be a better idea to train up the locals instead of continually trying to import people to do the job. I know! Amazing! What a wacky idea!
    I’ve long advocated increasing the number of training places (university and otherwise) to match the planned requirements of the NHS.

    They have planned levels of staffing years in advance. IIRC those estimates have always been on the low side as well.
    It isn't like traditionally medical courses aren't massive oversubscribed unlike say engineering where there are shortages but unis struggle to fill all places. So lots of demand, crazy not to have the supply.

    One big mistake government made when they changed uni fees, they could have come up with a scheme to offset or discount fees against years then served in NHS.
    Because of the lockdown comedy about A levels, some of the university medical courses expanded by 25% - but no full corresponding increase in training place post uni was done, I believe.

    I’ve also long advocated that for medics and teachers, student fees should be paid off over several years. With all payments while working in the designated profession handled as well.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,848

    Rishi Sunak is absolutely crap at politics.

    Who would you decide to give so much air time to immigration when you've failed on it for thirteen years?

    And when the other side are now associating lower migration with higher wages anyway


  • The other question is how much churn there will be between voting and not voting.

    There's a decent slice of the electorate that never votes- a lot of the success of 2016 and 2019 was motivating them to vote for the first time. There's decent anecdotal evidence that many of them won't vote this time.

    But also- how many disillousioned Conservative wets will just sit this one out? And how many Labour wets who couldn't bring themselves to vote for Angry Jez will be happy enough to turn out for Boring Old Starmer?

    Blooming hard to poll for, I suspect, but it's one of the things that drives election results.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2023

    viewcode said:

    FPT

    ...On immigration and wages. Because of a world wide shortage of degreed and qualified white collar professionals (Doctors etc), there is no practical level of immigration that can reduce wages...

    It's almost like - bear with me here - it would be a better idea to train up the locals instead of continually trying to import people to do the job. I know! Amazing! What a wacky idea!
    I’ve long advocated increasing the number of training places (university and otherwise) to match the planned requirements of the NHS.

    They have planned levels of staffing years in advance. IIRC those estimates have always been on the low side as well.
    It isn't like traditionally medical courses aren't massive oversubscribed unlike say engineering where there are shortages but unis struggle to fill all places. So lots of demand, crazy not to have the supply.

    One big mistake government made when they changed uni fees, they could have come up with a scheme to offset or discount fees against years then served in NHS.
    Because of the lockdown comedy about A levels, some of the university medical courses expanded by 25% - but no full corresponding increase in training place post uni was done, I believe.

    I’ve also long advocated that for medics and teachers, student fees should be paid off over several years. With all payments while working in the designated profession handled as well.
    The other upside, its would actually a pay increease for uk trained medics as they won't be paying the 9% on their income above £25k (or whatever the threshold for loan repayments is these days) for rest of their lives
  • What do the polling companies do with didnt vote at 2019? Do they check whether they have voted previously to get their weightings?

    Given last time around the choice was essentially Boris v Corbyn I suspect a chunk of regular voters sat that one out, but will be back for this one.
  • Foxy said:

    Whereas 41% of 2019 Lib Dem voters are likely to stick with their team ...

    However, they'll do a lot better than the Tories because of anti-Con tactical voting. Still, it's a castle built on sand.

    No, I just think that LD voters are realistic enough to know that in many seats they will not win. Its not flakey LDs is the baleful effects of FPTP.

    When we have proportional voting the LD (and Green) Votes are more solid.
    Not really. The Lib Dems frequently polled 20%+ from 1981-2010, and again in 2019. It's not FPTP that's stopping people returning to the party they actually voted for at the last general election.

    Actually, it's not true about PR delivering from the Lib Dems. It certainly benefits the Greens and the likes of UKIP / Reform, but in elections for the Welsh / Scottish devolved parliaments, the Lib Dems don't do any better than their Westminster shares.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,037

    So Piers Morgan knew his journalists were phone hacking....blow me down with a feather.

    Its like the Mirror made NOTW look like amateurs at this stuff, but strangely none of the media were interested when the phone hacking scandal exploded.

    It is surely time for those execs to do some self reflection.
    The only paper who even considered wider phone "hacking" and what i would call proper hacking was the Independent. Lots of stories that these practices were used for much more serious things than snooping on who was shagging who.
    It is another “too big to fail” problem.

    Everyone in journalism was using the “hack*” the provide corroboration for stories. The Guardian printed a story saying that they had used it - but only against bad people

    *The so called hack was simply that the default password for mobile phone voice messages was set to a single value by several networks.
  • Whereas 41% of 2019 Lib Dem voters are likely to stick with their team ...

    However, they'll do a lot better than the Tories because of anti-Con tactical voting. Still, it's a castle built on sand.

    I think at this point anti-Con votes are more like concrete rather than sand for the next GE. People have had enough, we are the biggest voting group and will be the most reliable. There is little enthusiasm even for pro-Labour or the minor parties either.

    Not reliable for any GEs beyond the next one, but reliable enough for this one.
    Yes, I'd agree with that. But parties really ought to build a long-term strategy that looks beyond the end of next year.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2023

    So Piers Morgan knew his journalists were phone hacking....blow me down with a feather.

    Its like the Mirror made NOTW look like amateurs at this stuff, but strangely none of the media were interested when the phone hacking scandal exploded.

    It is surely time for those execs to do some self reflection.
    The only paper who even considered wider phone "hacking" and what i would call proper hacking was the Independent. Lots of stories that these practices were used for much more serious things than snooping on who was shagging who.
    It is another “too big to fail” problem.

    Everyone in journalism was using the “hack*” the provide corroboration for stories. The Guardian printed a story saying that they had used it - but only against bad people

    *The so called hack was simply that the default password for mobile phone voice messages was set to a single value by several networks.
    Well Opetation Motorman showed no paper was clean. After thr plod talked to the editors, the difference seemed to be NOTW & Mirror doubled down, the likes of the Mail stayed clear.

    The only against the bad people....always makes me chuckle when the BBC and Guardian use hacked / stolen info provided by bad actors, but get very sniffy about others doing the same.
  • Whereas 41% of 2019 Lib Dem voters are likely to stick with their team ...

    However, they'll do a lot better than the Tories because of anti-Con tactical voting. Still, it's a castle built on sand.

    I think at this point anti-Con votes are more like concrete rather than sand for the next GE. People have had enough, we are the biggest voting group and will be the most reliable. There is little enthusiasm even for pro-Labour or the minor parties either.

    Not reliable for any GEs beyond the next one, but reliable enough for this one.
    Yes, I'd agree with that. But parties really ought to build a long-term strategy that looks beyond the end of next year.
    In a two party state where the governing party has chosen to consider strategy as how to get the best headline in our client press tomorrow and will change direction and even leaders multiple times a term, it is not easy for the opposition to do that. Far simpler just to keep fairly quiet and laugh at the self implosion.
  • So Piers Morgan knew his journalists were phone hacking....blow me down with a feather.

    Its like the Mirror made NOTW look like amateurs at this stuff, but strangely none of the media were interested when the phone hacking scandal exploded.

    It is surely time for those execs to do some self reflection.
    The only paper who even considered wider phone "hacking" and what i would call proper hacking was the Independent. Lots of stories that these practices were used for much more serious things than snooping on who was shagging who.
    It is another “too big to fail” problem.

    Everyone in journalism was using the “hack*” the provide corroboration for stories. The Guardian printed a story saying that they had used it - but only against bad people

    *The so called hack was simply that the default password for mobile phone voice messages was set to a single value by several networks.
    If Prince Harry's (or any royal) phone was hacked in this manner, then as per last thread, we have to wonder what those in charge of security were playing at.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,001

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    If I read the sub sets correctly the latest YouGov has 84% of remainers voting for Reform, so I think something may have gone awry.

    https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_231213_W.pdf

    Ha yes. I wonder what that % would actually be? Single digits surely.
    Its 1% in the following table for GE tomorrow.
    Wow, so low. You can't get lower and still be single digits. Whereas the Leaver % for RUK is right up there at 24%. There's the R/L schism right there. It's still a big one and it's still politically relevant. Will the RUK vote at the GE live up to their polling? This is one of the burning questions for us pundits and bettors on here.

    So we're talking about a tenth of the electorate for RUK, perhaps more, and all of them are Leavers. These are our Deplorables. Eg whenever there's a UK survey on Donald Trump you get 12% or so who "really like" him. That's these people. Positively wanted a No Deal Brexit? That was about 12% too. Same ones. Pity the polls are anonymous, otherwise we could have some names and addresses.

    Before anyone accuses me of smearing Leavers with offensive generalisations, I'd like to be clear about what the above state of affairs also means. It means that three quarters of Leavers, a clear clear majority, are not deplorable. Well they might be, but not in this sense.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2023

    So Piers Morgan knew his journalists were phone hacking....blow me down with a feather.

    Its like the Mirror made NOTW look like amateurs at this stuff, but strangely none of the media were interested when the phone hacking scandal exploded.

    It is surely time for those execs to do some self reflection.
    The only paper who even considered wider phone "hacking" and what i would call proper hacking was the Independent. Lots of stories that these practices were used for much more serious things than snooping on who was shagging who.
    It is another “too big to fail” problem.

    Everyone in journalism was using the “hack*” the provide corroboration for stories. The Guardian printed a story saying that they had used it - but only against bad people

    *The so called hack was simply that the default password for mobile phone voice messages was set to a single value by several networks.
    If Prince Harry's (or any royal) phone was hacked in this manner, then as per last thread, we have to wonder what those in charge of security were playing at.
    I always said the Chinese & Russians must have pissed themselves about how virtually all VIPs had zero security at that time.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,075
    edited December 2023
    I love how “phone hacking” sounds like Tom Cruise on a wire hanging over a computer terminal in Mission Impossible whereas it actually involved typing in the default voicemail PIN pre-assigned to all mobiles. Without wishing to victim blame it’s legitimate to ask why it took so many so long to just change their codes?
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,926
    Body found in the search for Gaynor Lord

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-67728331
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,442
    I’m doing some work on use of the COVID-19 app versus those who deleted it (with the “pingdemic”) and there’s some polling data available from Savanta. There are differences between Con and Lab voters, Remain and Leave voters, but those differences are tiny compared to the differences between people who voted and people who didn’t vote. Voting vs not voting is a big indicator of other social behaviours, which may indicate that most non-voters are persistent non-voters. I don’t think there’s that much churn there…?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,309

    Foxy said:

    Whereas 41% of 2019 Lib Dem voters are likely to stick with their team ...

    However, they'll do a lot better than the Tories because of anti-Con tactical voting. Still, it's a castle built on sand.

    No, I just think that LD voters are realistic enough to know that in many seats they will not win. Its not flakey LDs is the baleful effects of FPTP.

    When we have proportional voting the LD (and Green) Votes are more solid.
    Not really. The Lib Dems frequently polled 20%+ from 1981-2010, and again in 2019. It's not FPTP that's stopping people returning to the party they actually voted for at the last general election.

    Actually, it's not true about PR delivering from the Lib Dems. It certainly benefits the Greens and the likes of UKIP / Reform, but in elections for the Welsh / Scottish devolved parliaments, the Lib Dems don't do any better than their Westminster shares.
    They don’t get higher vote share, but they do get more seats. They currently have 15 seats in Westminster which is 2.3% of total, so it would do better under PR so long as it got more than 2.3% vote share.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,455
    Looking at the YouGov polling I was struck by something that can be slightly concealed by the figures and easily forgotten. If the reality (who knows) is Lab 44 Tory 22, the most interesting fact is not the 22 point gap - large though it is - it is that if repeated in an election Labour would get double the votes of the Tories - the Tories getting 50% of the Labour vote. In the 2019 Labour disaster the Labour got approx 73.3% of the Tory vote. In 1997 the Tories got 71% of the Labour vote.

    No wonder Tory MPs are troubled.
  • So Piers Morgan knew his journalists were phone hacking....blow me down with a feather.

    Its like the Mirror made NOTW look like amateurs at this stuff, but strangely none of the media were interested when the phone hacking scandal exploded.

    It is surely time for those execs to do some self reflection.
    The only paper who even considered wider phone "hacking" and what i would call proper hacking was the Independent. Lots of stories that these practices were used for much more serious things than snooping on who was shagging who.
    It is another “too big to fail” problem.

    Everyone in journalism was using the “hack*” the provide corroboration for stories. The Guardian printed a story saying that they had used it - but only against bad people

    *The so called hack was simply that the default password for mobile phone voice messages was set to a single value by several networks.
    Well Opetation Motorman showed no paper was clean. After thr plod talked to the editors, the difference seemed to be NOTW & Mirror doubled down, the likes of the Mail stayed clear.

    The only against the bad people....always makes me chuckle when the BBC and Guardian use hacked / stolen info provided by bad actors, but get very sniffy about others doing the same.
    I concur, we really shouldn't treat the likes of Tom Cruise, Sylvester Stallone or Coronation Street actors any differently.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,848
    edited December 2023

    What do the polling companies do with didnt vote at 2019? Do they check whether they have voted previously to get their weightings?

    Given last time around the choice was essentially Boris v Corbyn I suspect a chunk of regular voters sat that one out, but will be back for this one.

    Boris did get the most Tory votes since 1992, and more than Thatcher ever got, so not really

    I’d have thought turnout will be down myself.

    Quite surprising, very surprising in fact, that the PM who won most votes in a GE was Major with 14m, followed by Boris with 13.9. I would have though Thatcher and Blair would be first and second
  • DougSeal said:

    I love how “phone hacking” sounds like Tom Cruise on a wire hanging over a computer terminal in Mission Impossible whereas it actually involved typing in the default voicemail PIN pre-assigned to all mobiles. Without wishing to victim blame it’s legitimate to ask why it took so many so long to just change their codes?

    Especially the ones with paid security details. Although we should also ask why the phone companies did not force a pin code change on first use.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2023
    DougSeal said:

    I love how “phone hacking” sounds like Tom Cruise on a wire hanging over a computer terminal in Mission Impossible whereas it actually involved typing in the default voicemail PIN pre-assigned to all mobiles. Without wishing to victim blame it’s legitimate to ask why it took so many so long to just change their codes?

    We have also had iCloud "hacks" using similar flaws. I am surprised we haven't seen more widespread issues with IoTs, Routers etc*, I bet most people don't change any of the defaults for admin passwords.

    * of course online hackers have exploited this, I mean the media etc.
  • Whereas 41% of 2019 Lib Dem voters are likely to stick with their team ...

    However, they'll do a lot better than the Tories because of anti-Con tactical voting. Still, it's a castle built on sand.

    I think at this point anti-Con votes are more like concrete rather than sand for the next GE. People have had enough, we are the biggest voting group and will be the most reliable. There is little enthusiasm even for pro-Labour or the minor parties either.

    Not reliable for any GEs beyond the next one, but reliable enough for this one.
    Yes, I'd agree with that. But parties really ought to build a long-term strategy that looks beyond the end of next year.
    In a two party state where the governing party has chosen to consider strategy as how to get the best headline in our client press tomorrow and will change direction and even leaders multiple times a term, it is not easy for the opposition to do that. Far simpler just to keep fairly quiet and laugh at the self implosion.
    And where does that take them once Labour is in power?
  • isam said:

    What do the polling companies do with didnt vote at 2019? Do they check whether they have voted previously to get their weightings?

    Given last time around the choice was essentially Boris v Corbyn I suspect a chunk of regular voters sat that one out, but will be back for this one.

    Boris did get the most Tory votes since 1992, and more than Thatcher ever got, so not really

    I’d have thought turnout will be down myself.
    I agree turnout will be down. But if the polling companies are basing GE24/5 on GE19 voters (which seems to be largely the case from what they publicise and gets reported?) then they are going to be overly favourable to the Tories.
  • DougSeal said:

    I love how “phone hacking” sounds like Tom Cruise on a wire hanging over a computer terminal in Mission Impossible whereas it actually involved typing in the default voicemail PIN pre-assigned to all mobiles. Without wishing to victim blame it’s legitimate to ask why it took so many so long to just change their codes?

    Because they knew from past experience they could remember 1-2-3-4 but weren't confident they could remember anything else.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,880
    viewcode said:

    FPT

    ...On immigration and wages. Because of a world wide shortage of degreed and qualified white collar professionals (Doctors etc), there is no practical level of immigration that can reduce wages...

    It's almost like - bear with me here - it would be a better idea to train up the locals instead of continually trying to import people to do the job. I know! Amazing! What a wacky idea!
    Although if you do that, then you end up with even fewer people who want to work lower end jobs. Now, if you're Singapore, you regard the fact that all the doctors, lawyers and accountants are Singaporean, while cleaners, nannies, and workers in care homes are immigrants as a success.

    But - generally - voters are more supportive of high skilled immigration, than low skilled.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,309
    isam said:

    Rishi Sunak is absolutely crap at politics.

    Who would you decide to give so much air time to immigration when you've failed on it for thirteen years?

    And when the other side are now associating lower migration with higher wages anyway


    What else can Sunak go on though? He may have failed on immigration but at least there’s a possibility of making it a Labour weakness too. It’s one of the topics where Labour’s lead in polling is lower than most.

    Focus on tax? It’s gone up under the Tories
    Economic growth? Labour leads massively on this now
    Public services? Hardly
    Trans and other culture stuff? Too niche
    Net Zero and motorists? They tried that and it didn’t work beyond Uxbridge
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,803
    SKS Fans please explain

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 41% (-5)
    CON: 24% (-1)
    LDM: 13% (+1)
    GRN: 9% (+3)
    RFM: 7% (+3)
    SNP: 3% (-2)

    Via @IpsosUK, 1-7 Dec.
    Changes w/ 1-8 Nov
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,880

    Also of interest are the figures for the LibDems, where just 41% of their 2019 voters are committed to voting for them again, with 31% going to Labour. And yet, they keep winning elections, which is what really counts.

    I can only think of three explanations: the polls are wrong; all their victories are merely local protest votes; or there is a massive level of tactical voting in favour of whoever will beat the Tories.

    If it is the latter, we could be looking at an outcome for the Tories that is far, far worse than the seat forecasts are predicting.

    The LibDems - in polls - always have very low retention rates. And that's because a large number of LibDem voters are tactical. Come the election, many people who support the Labour Party in Guilford, St Ives, Eastbourne, Twickenham, etc., will decide to vote Yellow.
  • Whereas 41% of 2019 Lib Dem voters are likely to stick with their team ...

    However, they'll do a lot better than the Tories because of anti-Con tactical voting. Still, it's a castle built on sand.

    I think at this point anti-Con votes are more like concrete rather than sand for the next GE. People have had enough, we are the biggest voting group and will be the most reliable. There is little enthusiasm even for pro-Labour or the minor parties either.

    Not reliable for any GEs beyond the next one, but reliable enough for this one.
    Yes, I'd agree with that. But parties really ought to build a long-term strategy that looks beyond the end of next year.
    In a two party state where the governing party has chosen to consider strategy as how to get the best headline in our client press tomorrow and will change direction and even leaders multiple times a term, it is not easy for the opposition to do that. Far simpler just to keep fairly quiet and laugh at the self implosion.
    And where does that take them once Labour is in power?
    Hard to tell, but I would say something like:

    50% Slightly more competent and significantly more stable version of what we have had for the last couple of decades without the drama and division
    20% Genuinely reforming and positive government, for a bit at least
    15% Overwhelmed by public finances and collapses into squabbles between left and centre left
    15% Something else

    Happy to take my chances with that even if its not very impressive.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,848
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    FPT

    ...On immigration and wages. Because of a world wide shortage of degreed and qualified white collar professionals (Doctors etc), there is no practical level of immigration that can reduce wages...

    It's almost like - bear with me here - it would be a better idea to train up the locals instead of continually trying to import people to do the job. I know! Amazing! What a wacky idea!
    Although if you do that, then you end up with even fewer people who want to work lower end jobs. Now, if you're Singapore, you regard the fact that all the doctors, lawyers and accountants are Singaporean, while cleaners, nannies, and workers in care homes are immigrants as a success.

    But - generally - voters are more supportive of high skilled immigration, than low skilled.
    It seems as though Blair & Cameron liked that Singaporean model
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,880

    SKS Fans please explain

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 41% (-5)
    CON: 24% (-1)
    LDM: 13% (+1)
    GRN: 9% (+3)
    RFM: 7% (+3)
    SNP: 3% (-2)

    Via @IpsosUK, 1-7 Dec.
    Changes w/ 1-8 Nov

    17 point Labour lead a year before an election.

    How was Corbyn doing a year before 2017 or 2019?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,037
    DougSeal said:

    I love how “phone hacking” sounds like Tom Cruise on a wire hanging over a computer terminal in Mission Impossible whereas it actually involved typing in the default voicemail PIN pre-assigned to all mobiles. Without wishing to victim blame it’s legitimate to ask why it took so many so long to just change their codes?

    For a number of years I was a member of a private club in London. Bit like Soho House, but less in the news.

    You got quite a few celebrities in there. I demonstrated the “hack” to a few people - using my own voicemail. I was trying to get as many people to change the pin as possible - this was before the scandal hit the news.

    The lightbulb moment when they realised that anyone with their phone number…
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,442
    TimS said:

    isam said:

    Rishi Sunak is absolutely crap at politics.

    Who would you decide to give so much air time to immigration when you've failed on it for thirteen years?

    And when the other side are now associating lower migration with higher wages anyway


    What else can Sunak go on though? He may have failed on immigration but at least there’s a possibility of making it a Labour weakness too. It’s one of the topics where Labour’s lead in polling is lower than most.

    Focus on tax? It’s gone up under the Tories
    Economic growth? Labour leads massively on this now
    Public services? Hardly
    Trans and other culture stuff? Too niche
    Net Zero and motorists? They tried that and it didn’t work beyond Uxbridge
    Getting the big calls right on COVID-19? Maybe not…

    Trust and probity? Hmmmm… no.

    Supporting Ukraine?

    Dr Who getting better?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,309
    isam said:

    What do the polling companies do with didnt vote at 2019? Do they check whether they have voted previously to get their weightings?

    Given last time around the choice was essentially Boris v Corbyn I suspect a chunk of regular voters sat that one out, but will be back for this one.

    Boris did get the most Tory votes since 1992, and more than Thatcher ever got, so not really

    I’d have thought turnout will be down myself.

    Quite surprising, very surprising in fact, that the PM who won most votes in a GE was Major with 14m, followed by Boris with 13.9. I would have though Thatcher and Blair would be first and second
    I think it’s a feature of elections where third parties get squeezed. Thatcher won elections with strong 3rd parties, as did Blair. Major vs Kinnock in 1992 was much more of a third party squeeze. Hence also 2017 and the Corbynites’ much repeated stats on his vote numbers.

    Boris actually more surprising than Major, but population had grown significantly since 1992.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,880

    Whereas 41% of 2019 Lib Dem voters are likely to stick with their team ...

    However, they'll do a lot better than the Tories because of anti-Con tactical voting. Still, it's a castle built on sand.

    It's worked out - in general - pretty well for them in Scotland over a very long period of time.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,037
    edited December 2023

    DougSeal said:

    I love how “phone hacking” sounds like Tom Cruise on a wire hanging over a computer terminal in Mission Impossible whereas it actually involved typing in the default voicemail PIN pre-assigned to all mobiles. Without wishing to victim blame it’s legitimate to ask why it took so many so long to just change their codes?

    Because they knew from past experience they could remember 1-2-3-4 but weren't confident they could remember anything else.
    It was simpler than that. Most people only ever used their voicemail straight from the phone. The “hack” was using a secondary facility to access your voicemail from *any* phone. You could dial a number (varied by network) and given the phone number and pin access your voicemail.

    Most people didn’t know this secondary capability existed. So they never reset the default pin, or even knew it existed.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,075

    SKS Fans please explain

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 41% (-5)
    CON: 24% (-1)
    LDM: 13% (+1)
    GRN: 9% (+3)
    RFM: 7% (+3)
    SNP: 3% (-2)

    Via @IpsosUK, 1-7 Dec.
    Changes w/ 1-8 Nov

    Looks like a correction to me. 17 points is a massive lead less than a year from an election. Better than anyone else has managed or could manage. Still 22 points ahead with the latest YouGov, who you quoted approvingly in another context early this morning, too. But the ones that don’t follow your narrative don’t count.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,442
    rcs1000 said:

    Also of interest are the figures for the LibDems, where just 41% of their 2019 voters are committed to voting for them again, with 31% going to Labour. And yet, they keep winning elections, which is what really counts.

    I can only think of three explanations: the polls are wrong; all their victories are merely local protest votes; or there is a massive level of tactical voting in favour of whoever will beat the Tories.

    If it is the latter, we could be looking at an outcome for the Tories that is far, far worse than the seat forecasts are predicting.

    The LibDems - in polls - always have very low retention rates. And that's because a large number of LibDem voters are tactical. Come the election, many people who support the Labour Party in Guilford, St Ives, Eastbourne, Twickenham, etc., will decide to vote Yellow.
    True.

    The thing is a large number of all parties’ voters are tactical. Lots of Labour voters are voting not Tory. Lots of Conservative voters are voting not socialism.
  • SKS Fans please explain

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 41% (-5)
    CON: 24% (-1)
    LDM: 13% (+1)
    GRN: 9% (+3)
    RFM: 7% (+3)
    SNP: 3% (-2)

    Via @IpsosUK, 1-7 Dec.
    Changes w/ 1-8 Nov

    Absolutely, Keith has so much to learn from the two landslides Jeremy Corbyn won.
  • DougSeal said:

    SKS Fans please explain

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 41% (-5)
    CON: 24% (-1)
    LDM: 13% (+1)
    GRN: 9% (+3)
    RFM: 7% (+3)
    SNP: 3% (-2)

    Via @IpsosUK, 1-7 Dec.
    Changes w/ 1-8 Nov

    Looks like a correction to me. 17 points is a massive lead less than a year from an election. Better than anyone else has managed or could manage. Still 22 points ahead with the latest YouGov, who you quoted approvingly in another context early this morning, too. But the ones that don’t follow your narrative don’t count.
    IPSOS are one of the gold standards, if anything I would say Sunak is more screwed than ever. That green score is ludicrous, so on most counts it looks like SKS has successfully re-created the same percentage voteshare Blair did in 1997, i.e. SKS is currently on course to be one of, if not the most successful vote winner for Labour ever.

    But he's crap and must resign. Of course.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,880
    isam said:

    What do the polling companies do with didnt vote at 2019? Do they check whether they have voted previously to get their weightings?

    Given last time around the choice was essentially Boris v Corbyn I suspect a chunk of regular voters sat that one out, but will be back for this one.

    Boris did get the most Tory votes since 1992, and more than Thatcher ever got, so not really

    I’d have thought turnout will be down myself.

    Quite surprising, very surprising in fact, that the PM who won most votes in a GE was Major with 14m, followed by Boris with 13.9. I would have though Thatcher and Blair would be first and second
    Ahem:

    UK population 1992: 57.6m
    UK population 2019: 66.8m

    And if you look at the number of people over the age of 65, the growth is even more stark.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,848
    TimS said:

    isam said:

    Rishi Sunak is absolutely crap at politics.

    Who would you decide to give so much air time to immigration when you've failed on it for thirteen years?

    And when the other side are now associating lower migration with higher wages anyway


    What else can Sunak go on though? He may have failed on immigration but at least there’s a possibility of making it a Labour weakness too. It’s one of the topics where Labour’s lead in polling is lower than most.

    Focus on tax? It’s gone up under the Tories
    Economic growth? Labour leads massively on this now
    Public services? Hardly
    Trans and other culture stuff? Too niche
    Net Zero and motorists? They tried that and it didn’t work beyond Uxbridge
    I don’t know, he seems hopeless. He’s a bad salesman with a bad product.

    Starmer is trying to shove all his Brexit opposition, ‘People’s Vote’ etc, down the memory hole, saying he ‘Voted Remain’ as if he were just a normal punter, and I don’t think members of the public see Rishi as much to do with Leave - I’d never heard of him until about four years ago. So that angle is not going to be much use to him to try and create a wedge.

  • TazTaz Posts: 10,926

    SKS Fans please explain

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 41% (-5)
    CON: 24% (-1)
    LDM: 13% (+1)
    GRN: 9% (+3)
    RFM: 7% (+3)
    SNP: 3% (-2)

    Via @IpsosUK, 1-7 Dec.
    Changes w/ 1-8 Nov

    Must be the Tory attack ads on "X" having an impact.

    And we, here, mocked them !!
  • glwglw Posts: 9,548

    So Piers Morgan knew his journalists were phone hacking....blow me down with a feather.

    Its like the Mirror made NOTW look like amateurs at this stuff, but strangely none of the media were interested when the phone hacking scandal exploded.

    Yes I'm very much looking forward to the left-wing led campaign to close the Mirror, just like they did to the NotW, which will surely begin immediately.
  • SKS Fans please explain

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 41% (-5)
    CON: 24% (-1)
    LDM: 13% (+1)
    GRN: 9% (+3)
    RFM: 7% (+3)
    SNP: 3% (-2)

    Via @IpsosUK, 1-7 Dec.
    Changes w/ 1-8 Nov

    Absolutely, Keith has so much to learn from the two landslides Jeremy Corbyn won.
    Boris did learn from Corbyn 2017, hence his landslide in 2019 with a platform that looked vaguely familiar (40 new hospitals, more broadband and so on).
  • isamisam Posts: 40,848
    edited December 2023
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    What do the polling companies do with didnt vote at 2019? Do they check whether they have voted previously to get their weightings?

    Given last time around the choice was essentially Boris v Corbyn I suspect a chunk of regular voters sat that one out, but will be back for this one.

    Boris did get the most Tory votes since 1992, and more than Thatcher ever got, so not really

    I’d have thought turnout will be down myself.

    Quite surprising, very surprising in fact, that the PM who won most votes in a GE was Major with 14m, followed by Boris with 13.9. I would have though Thatcher and Blair would be first and second
    Ahem:

    UK population 1992: 57.6m
    UK population 2019: 66.8m

    And if you look at the number of people over the age of 65, the growth is even more stark.
    Ahem ahem, why didn’t Blair get more than Major then? Why didn’t Cameron, or May?

    Also, a lot of the growth in population from 92-19 is based on immigrants and their children, who are not thought of as natural Tories
  • SKS Fans please explain

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 41% (-5)
    CON: 24% (-1)
    LDM: 13% (+1)
    GRN: 9% (+3)
    RFM: 7% (+3)
    SNP: 3% (-2)

    Via @IpsosUK, 1-7 Dec.
    Changes w/ 1-8 Nov

    Absolutely, Keith has so much to learn from the two landslides Jeremy Corbyn won.
    Boris did learn from Corbyn 2017, hence his landslide in 2019 with a platform that looked vaguely familiar (40 new hospitals, more broadband and so on).
    Jeremy Corbyn - well Andrew Fisher really - had a much better handle on where the country was than mostly anyone else. So it's not a surprise than when he left the 2019 manifesto became nonsensical.
  • India v England: 19 wickets fall on day two as hosts take control of Test match
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/67724742

    It seems our lady cricketers are no more successful than the men.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,880
    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    FPT

    ...On immigration and wages. Because of a world wide shortage of degreed and qualified white collar professionals (Doctors etc), there is no practical level of immigration that can reduce wages...

    It's almost like - bear with me here - it would be a better idea to train up the locals instead of continually trying to import people to do the job. I know! Amazing! What a wacky idea!
    Although if you do that, then you end up with even fewer people who want to work lower end jobs. Now, if you're Singapore, you regard the fact that all the doctors, lawyers and accountants are Singaporean, while cleaners, nannies, and workers in care homes are immigrants as a success.

    But - generally - voters are more supportive of high skilled immigration, than low skilled.
    It seems as though Blair & Cameron liked that Singaporean model
    I think there's some truth in that. It's also important to recognise that the British tax and benefits system has extremely high (often close to 100%) marginal tax rates for people at the low end of the economic spectrum.

    That means we're actively discouraging people from working, creating demand for immigration.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,041

    DougSeal said:

    I love how “phone hacking” sounds like Tom Cruise on a wire hanging over a computer terminal in Mission Impossible whereas it actually involved typing in the default voicemail PIN pre-assigned to all mobiles. Without wishing to victim blame it’s legitimate to ask why it took so many so long to just change their codes?

    Because they knew from past experience they could remember 1-2-3-4 but weren't confident they could remember anything else.
    It was simpler than that. Most people only ever used their voicemail straight from the phone. The “hack” was using a secondary facility to access your voicemail from *any* phone. You could dial a number (varied by network) and given the phone number and pin access your voicemail.

    Most people didn’t know this secondary capability existed. So they never reset the default pin, or even knew it existed.
    Why does anyone bother with voice mail when they have text messages ?
    I loathe it, and don't use it.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,548

    So Piers Morgan knew his journalists were phone hacking....blow me down with a feather.

    Its like the Mirror made NOTW look like amateurs at this stuff, but strangely none of the media were interested when the phone hacking scandal exploded.

    It is surely time for those execs to do some self reflection.
    The only paper who even considered wider phone "hacking" and what i would call proper hacking was the Independent. Lots of stories that these practices were used for much more serious things than snooping on who was shagging who.
    I don't think we ever got an explanation for Tessa Jowell's claim that her SMS messages were intercepted, which is a shame as that would have involved real hacking, or the carriers, plod, or security services assistance.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2023
    glw said:

    So Piers Morgan knew his journalists were phone hacking....blow me down with a feather.

    Its like the Mirror made NOTW look like amateurs at this stuff, but strangely none of the media were interested when the phone hacking scandal exploded.

    Yes I'm very much looking forward to the left-wing led campaign to close the Mirror, just like they did to the NotW, which will surely begin immediately.
    Bit like the Lozza Fox says a moronic thing on GB News, it must be shut down....the target of the joke has said the same thing repeatedly on twitter, no, no issue....other media outlets have contributors say far worse, no issue.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,940
    Nigelb said:

    DougSeal said:

    I love how “phone hacking” sounds like Tom Cruise on a wire hanging over a computer terminal in Mission Impossible whereas it actually involved typing in the default voicemail PIN pre-assigned to all mobiles. Without wishing to victim blame it’s legitimate to ask why it took so many so long to just change their codes?

    Because they knew from past experience they could remember 1-2-3-4 but weren't confident they could remember anything else.
    It was simpler than that. Most people only ever used their voicemail straight from the phone. The “hack” was using a secondary facility to access your voicemail from *any* phone. You could dial a number (varied by network) and given the phone number and pin access your voicemail.

    Most people didn’t know this secondary capability existed. So they never reset the default pin, or even knew it existed.
    Why does anyone bother with voice mail when they have text messages ?
    I loathe it, and don't use it.
    Literacy is a factor for some people who prefer to send voice messages.
  • I am surprised they didn't try and bribe the MNOs since texts are all stored in plain text without any encryption.

    It is by far the most insecure digital communication method there is.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,041
    Another GOP 'moderate' enabler claiming Trump won't do what he keeps publicly stating he'll do.

    Glenn Youngkin praises Trump on economy, downplays ‘dictator’ fears
    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/13/glenn-youngkin-praises-trump-on-economy-downplays-dictator-fears.html
    Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin said he will support Donald Trump if he becomes the 2024 Republican presidential nominee.
    Youngkin downplayed critics’ concerns that the former president would seek “retribution” if granted a second term...


    I think @Jim_Miller was, at one point, a fan ?

    Quite what there is to praise Trump about on the economy is left as an exercise for the reader.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2023
    Nigelb said:

    DougSeal said:

    I love how “phone hacking” sounds like Tom Cruise on a wire hanging over a computer terminal in Mission Impossible whereas it actually involved typing in the default voicemail PIN pre-assigned to all mobiles. Without wishing to victim blame it’s legitimate to ask why it took so many so long to just change their codes?

    Because they knew from past experience they could remember 1-2-3-4 but weren't confident they could remember anything else.
    It was simpler than that. Most people only ever used their voicemail straight from the phone. The “hack” was using a secondary facility to access your voicemail from *any* phone. You could dial a number (varied by network) and given the phone number and pin access your voicemail.

    Most people didn’t know this secondary capability existed. So they never reset the default pin, or even knew it existed.
    Why does anyone bother with voice mail when they have text messages ?
    I loathe it, and don't use it.
    Same way as most people don't use text messages (i.e. SMS) these days, its iMessage or WhatsApp. At the time, character limitations per message, cost per text on lots of plans etc.

    Also, its going full circle, lots of people use WhatsApp voice notes now rather than type messages.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,041

    Nigelb said:

    DougSeal said:

    I love how “phone hacking” sounds like Tom Cruise on a wire hanging over a computer terminal in Mission Impossible whereas it actually involved typing in the default voicemail PIN pre-assigned to all mobiles. Without wishing to victim blame it’s legitimate to ask why it took so many so long to just change their codes?

    Because they knew from past experience they could remember 1-2-3-4 but weren't confident they could remember anything else.
    It was simpler than that. Most people only ever used their voicemail straight from the phone. The “hack” was using a secondary facility to access your voicemail from *any* phone. You could dial a number (varied by network) and given the phone number and pin access your voicemail.

    Most people didn’t know this secondary capability existed. So they never reset the default pin, or even knew it existed.
    Why does anyone bother with voice mail when they have text messages ?
    I loathe it, and don't use it.
    Literacy is a factor for some people who prefer to send voice messages.
    OK, you've got me there on Prince Harry.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,213

    Nigelb said:

    DougSeal said:

    I love how “phone hacking” sounds like Tom Cruise on a wire hanging over a computer terminal in Mission Impossible whereas it actually involved typing in the default voicemail PIN pre-assigned to all mobiles. Without wishing to victim blame it’s legitimate to ask why it took so many so long to just change their codes?

    Because they knew from past experience they could remember 1-2-3-4 but weren't confident they could remember anything else.
    It was simpler than that. Most people only ever used their voicemail straight from the phone. The “hack” was using a secondary facility to access your voicemail from *any* phone. You could dial a number (varied by network) and given the phone number and pin access your voicemail.

    Most people didn’t know this secondary capability existed. So they never reset the default pin, or even knew it existed.
    Why does anyone bother with voice mail when they have text messages ?
    I loathe it, and don't use it.
    Literacy is a factor for some people who prefer to send voice messages.
    My Dad is literate but frequently mis-types stuff, so prefers to leave Whatsapp voice messages. I much prefer receiving texts (I hate listening to answerphone messages), so it's a bit of a stalemate.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,057

    So Piers Morgan knew his journalists were phone hacking....blow me down with a feather.

    Its like the Mirror made NOTW look like amateurs at this stuff, but strangely none of the media were interested when the phone hacking scandal exploded.

    It is surely time for those execs to do some self reflection.
    The only paper who even considered wider phone "hacking" and what i would call proper hacking was the Independent. Lots of stories that these practices were used for much more serious things than snooping on who was shagging who.
    It is another “too big to fail” problem.

    Everyone in journalism was using the “hack*” the provide corroboration for stories. The Guardian printed a story saying that they had used it - but only against bad people

    *The so called hack was simply that the default password for mobile phone voice messages was set to a single value by several networks.
    Well Opetation Motorman showed no paper was clean. After thr plod talked to the editors, the difference seemed to be NOTW & Mirror doubled down, the likes of the Mail stayed clear.

    The only against the bad people....always makes me chuckle when the BBC and Guardian use hacked / stolen info provided by bad actors, but get very sniffy about others doing the same.
    See also Gordon Brown re leaks with in opposition and then in power...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,037
    glw said:

    So Piers Morgan knew his journalists were phone hacking....blow me down with a feather.

    Its like the Mirror made NOTW look like amateurs at this stuff, but strangely none of the media were interested when the phone hacking scandal exploded.

    It is surely time for those execs to do some self reflection.
    The only paper who even considered wider phone "hacking" and what i would call proper hacking was the Independent. Lots of stories that these practices were used for much more serious things than snooping on who was shagging who.
    I don't think we ever got an explanation for Tessa Jowell's claim that her SMS messages were intercepted, which is a shame as that would have involved real hacking, or the carriers, plod, or security services assistance.
    Not necessarily done by big players.

    SMS is so insecure that many experts argue that it shouldn’t be used for 2FA - the one where they send you a text with a code to verify a login.

  • SKS Fans please explain

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 41% (-5)
    CON: 24% (-1)
    LDM: 13% (+1)
    GRN: 9% (+3)
    RFM: 7% (+3)
    SNP: 3% (-2)

    Via @IpsosUK, 1-7 Dec.
    Changes w/ 1-8 Nov

    Ipsos is the only polling company still undertaking telephone polling I believe.
  • rcs1000 said:

    SKS Fans please explain

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 41% (-5)
    CON: 24% (-1)
    LDM: 13% (+1)
    GRN: 9% (+3)
    RFM: 7% (+3)
    SNP: 3% (-2)

    Via @IpsosUK, 1-7 Dec.
    Changes w/ 1-8 Nov

    17 point Labour lead a year before an election.

    How was Corbyn doing a year before 2017 or 2019?
    A Lab+17 is a (7 points) bigger lead than Corbyn ever got (and Corbyn's two Lab+10 leads were achieved with a maximum Labour share of 33%).

    It's also a bigger lead than Miliband or Brown ever managed, or Blair post-Iraq.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2023

    I am surprised they didn't try and bribe the MNOs since texts are all stored in plain text without any encryption.

    It is by far the most insecure digital communication method there is.

    The Independent at the time ran quite a few stories that started to look at much much more serious things that allegedly were going on at the time. The listening to voice mail was chump level stuff (remember those that got hauled before the courts weren't exactly James Bond types, rather people who the newspapers outsourced what the intern on the gossip columns used to do on their lunch break to try to give them some distance after the plod told them to pack it in).
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,880
    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    What do the polling companies do with didnt vote at 2019? Do they check whether they have voted previously to get their weightings?

    Given last time around the choice was essentially Boris v Corbyn I suspect a chunk of regular voters sat that one out, but will be back for this one.

    Boris did get the most Tory votes since 1992, and more than Thatcher ever got, so not really

    I’d have thought turnout will be down myself.

    Quite surprising, very surprising in fact, that the PM who won most votes in a GE was Major with 14m, followed by Boris with 13.9. I would have though Thatcher and Blair would be first and second
    Ahem:

    UK population 1992: 57.6m
    UK population 2019: 66.8m

    And if you look at the number of people over the age of 65, the growth is even more stark.
    Ahem ahem, why didn’t Blair get more than Major then? Why didn’t Cameron, or May?

    Also, a lot of the growth in population from 92-19 is based on immigrants and their children, who are not thought of as natural Tories
    I agree immigration played a role. (Albeit, it is worth remembering that the biggest growth in the number of Brits - by far - is in the over 65s. They've gone from about 15% of voters to almost 30% in the last 30 years.)

    But to your question, I think that's fairly easy to answer.

    In 1997, Blair came pretty close to Major's 1992 total, with 13.5m votes vs 14m. And the UK population had only grown 0.5m between those elections. But what really changed in the post Major era was that turnout collapsed. In 1992, it was 77.7%, while in 2001 it was just 59.4%.

    When elections are considered a foregone conclusion (2001), or where voters aren't that keen on any of the options (2005), people tend to stay home.

    When it's something they really care about (like the Scottish or EU referendums), then turnout can be extremely high.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,057

    I’m doing some work on use of the COVID-19 app versus those who deleted it (with the “pingdemic”) and there’s some polling data available from Savanta. There are differences between Con and Lab voters, Remain and Leave voters, but those differences are tiny compared to the differences between people who voted and people who didn’t vote. Voting vs not voting is a big indicator of other social behaviours, which may indicate that most non-voters are persistent non-voters. I don’t think there’s that much churn there…?

    I've always thought that likelihood to vote is best indicated by did you vote at the last election.
  • glw said:

    So Piers Morgan knew his journalists were phone hacking....blow me down with a feather.

    Its like the Mirror made NOTW look like amateurs at this stuff, but strangely none of the media were interested when the phone hacking scandal exploded.

    Yes I'm very much looking forward to the left-wing led campaign to close the Mirror, just like they did to the NotW, which will surely begin immediately.
    The News of the World was closed by Rupert Murdoch immediately after the Milly Dowler revelations (immediately as in the same week).
  • TimS said:

    isam said:

    What do the polling companies do with didnt vote at 2019? Do they check whether they have voted previously to get their weightings?

    Given last time around the choice was essentially Boris v Corbyn I suspect a chunk of regular voters sat that one out, but will be back for this one.

    Boris did get the most Tory votes since 1992, and more than Thatcher ever got, so not really

    I’d have thought turnout will be down myself.

    Quite surprising, very surprising in fact, that the PM who won most votes in a GE was Major with 14m, followed by Boris with 13.9. I would have though Thatcher and Blair would be first and second
    I think it’s a feature of elections where third parties get squeezed. Thatcher won elections with strong 3rd parties, as did Blair. Major vs Kinnock in 1992 was much more of a third party squeeze. Hence also 2017 and the Corbynites’ much repeated stats on his vote numbers.

    Boris actually more surprising than Major, but population had grown significantly since 1992.
    Also, the big polling leads enjoyed by Thatcher and Blair meant lower turnouts, I am guessing. A close race means higher turnout and squeezes voters into treating it as a 2 party contest. My guess is Labour wins the next election with a clear polling lead and low turnout and with the Lib Dems recovering in the Blue Wall, hence a relatively low absolute number of votes (which PB Tories will be consoling themselves with in the aftermath).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2023

    glw said:

    So Piers Morgan knew his journalists were phone hacking....blow me down with a feather.

    Its like the Mirror made NOTW look like amateurs at this stuff, but strangely none of the media were interested when the phone hacking scandal exploded.

    Yes I'm very much looking forward to the left-wing led campaign to close the Mirror, just like they did to the NotW, which will surely begin immediately.
    The News of the World was closed by Rupert Murdoch immediately after the Milly Dowler revelations (immediately as in the same week).
    And the key aspects of that story was a lie by the Guardian.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,057

    India v England: 19 wickets fall on day two as hosts take control of Test match
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/67724742

    It seems our lady cricketers are no more successful than the men.

    Short memories. The men's test team had an amazing 18 months, are still the World T20 champions and until recently were World champions of both short formats.
    We are not back in the 1990's chaps.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,137
    edited December 2023

    So Piers Morgan knew his journalists were phone hacking....blow me down with a feather.

    Its like the Mirror made NOTW look like amateurs at this stuff, but strangely none of the media were interested when the phone hacking scandal exploded.

    It is surely time for those execs to do some self reflection.
    The only paper who even considered wider phone "hacking" and what i would call proper hacking was the Independent. Lots of stories that these practices were used for much more serious things than snooping on who was shagging who.
    It is another “too big to fail” problem.

    Everyone in journalism was using the “hack*” the provide corroboration for stories. The Guardian printed a story saying that they had used it - but only against bad people

    *The so called hack was simply that the default password for mobile phone voice messages was set to a single value by several networks.
    Well Opetation Motorman showed no paper was clean. After thr plod talked to the editors, the difference seemed to be NOTW & Mirror doubled down, the likes of the Mail stayed clear.

    The only against the bad people....always makes me chuckle when the BBC and Guardian use hacked / stolen info provided by bad actors, but get very sniffy about others doing the same.
    One difficulty is that a lot of investigative journalism does involve sailing close to the wind. For instance, the Telegraph's expenses story that ended several careers and imprisoned a few, was due to their buying data stolen from the parliamentary system. Even Watergate was heavily based on leaked confidential information from Deep Throat.
  • If the ultimate election occurs, where the Tories get squeezed on both sides, it may be genuinely cataclysmic for them. The Lib Dems are second in a lot of seats in the South, has nobody considered the Tories might really about to be getting fucked?
This discussion has been closed.