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Starmer maintains his solid approval ratings – politicalbetting.com
Starmer maintains his solid approval ratings – politicalbetting.com
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Starmer maintains his solid approval ratings – politicalbetting.com
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No. "Was it simply Donald Trump’s unprecedented presidency that reversed Bush’s approval rating slide and raised it to 61 percent by early 2018? Even among historians surveyed by C-SPAN in 2021, he rose four places in as many years, now ranking 29th out of 44 presidents. By contrast, Trump landed 41st in the historians’ rankings, and nearly half of Americans polled by the Gallup organization just before he left office predicted that history would rate him as a “poor” president."
(Links omitted.)
source: https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/569913-dont-misunderestimate-george-w-bush/
More here: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/10/20/george-w-bush-hamas-analysis-00122516
Katrina is an interesting example -- which does not support your conclusion. The two states most affected by the hurricane were Louisiana and Mississippi. Louisiana responded by electing Bobby Jindal, who had been part of the Bush administration. One reason for that may have been the somewhat better response by Mississippi, which had a Republican governor, and still does. A poll in Louisiana, shortly after the hurricane hit, blamed state and local Democrats more than Bush for problems with the response.
And now he’s making speeches equating mass immigration with low wages.
We really, really need a Starmer equivalent. I can’t see him providing us with entertainment any other way.
I suppose he does but the graph in the header ends 6 months ago
+8%. He was meandering between 5 and 10 in the last months of that graph in the header. So, similar.
https://youtu.be/cmV4N3h_UXo?si=ra7UAgSkztGe49i9
When you don't have an industrial cleaner a dustpan and brush is much better than living in shit and squalor.
We live in supposedly volatile times - two wars, economic instability, culture wars - yet the polls aren’t moving in the slightest.
It wasn't just a birthday cake. It is the moral vacuum at the heart of his being. He is a con artist and uniquely poorly suited to any position in politics. Like any other con artist he got rumbled and skipped town ahead of punishment.
Where Partygate was damaging was the way it united the lockdowners, who disapproved of the behaviour, and the anti-lockdowners who disapproved of the hypocrisy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iyIbbxVzrU
The Royal Family
@RoyalFamily
The King has visited the Royal Courts of Justice to celebrate the work of the judiciary and its commitment to the rule of law.
====
He's growing on me.
Nicely trolled.
And the PB chorus of "gosh, isn't he lucky" continues.
Just as too many on the left underestimated Johnson, too many on the right and in the centre underestimate Starmer. I think.
Starmer does have a ruthlessness in his desire for power that has few equals in recent times, with Johnson being the only one in the same ball park. Both ruthlessly abandoned their previously held positions for no reason other than an electoral strategy.
The amorality of both bothers me, but while Johnson was ahead in superficial charm, Starmer is streets ahead in terms of change management and constructing firm foundations for power. No doubt that errors will be made and political incidents mishandled for such is the nature of politics. It won't be as pointless as the incidents that led to Johnson running away like Sir Robin.
LBJ was ruthless but initially he won power by accident. But he was bloody good at getting what he wanted when he had it. Civil Rights etc.
Just a late night thought, but I think Starmer may our LBJ. Dull. Uninteresting. But not so born and bred lefty Labour that he can't navigate the Commons and get votes done.
Probably wouldn't have won but for circumstances.
We may find that Starmer's two terms, if they happen, enact changes that set the seal on a generation or more.
But maybe I am biased - he is a fellow Leeds Uni graduate.
"Historians Caro and Dallek consider Johnson the most effective Senate majority leader in history. He was unusually proficient at gathering information. One biographer suggests he was "the greatest intelligence gatherer Washington has ever known", discovering exactly where every senator stood on issues, his philosophy and prejudices, his strengths and weaknesses and what it took to get his vote.[65] Robert Baker claimed that Johnson would occasionally send senators on NATO trips to avoid their dissenting votes. . . .
During his tenure as Majority Leader, Johnson did not sign the 1956 Southern Manifesto,[70][71] and shepherded the Civil Rights Acts of 1957 and 1960 to passage—the first civil rights bills to pass Congress since the Enforcement Acts and the Civil Rights Act of 1875 during Reconstruction."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lyndon_B._Johnson
Just superb at the time.
Haley has NH and S Carolina straight after.
What would be a "nomination sewn up" victory look like?
I think he'd need to get at least 60% of the vote, and with a fractured opposition. So if it was Trump 60%, Hayley 30% and DeSantis 10%, that would not be enough to sew it up for him.
On the other hand, if Trump got 65%, and DeSantis and Hayley were both in the low to mid teens, then that probably would be enough.
The risk to Trump is principally that his opposition coalesces around a single figure. Iowa might well make that happen.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kathleen_Blanco
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haley_Barbour
Strange things happen in American politics, especially in Louisiana -- but the state did not have two governors from 2004 to 2008.
I saw another mistake in Wkipedia's Louisiana governor sequence, but will leave that as an exercise for readers. (I hope SSI2 will be kind enough to letter our friends in the UK try to find it.)
My gut is that Trump wins Iowa handily, but that Hayley is a clear second.
Trump then wins New Hampshire, but now it's by a relatively small margin, say 50 to 40 with DeSantis essentially out.
Can Trump avoid even debating Hayley if she's running him that close?
We've had four polls since then, and none of them have Trump quite so high, with Americans for Prosperity* having Trump on just 44%, with Hayley in second on 17%.
Now, other pollsters have Trump higher than that (albeit one of them in Trafalgar). Still, in the last four Iowa polls, Trump has only exceeded 50% in one of them.
https://www.news.iastate.edu/news/2023/12/14/24caucus-poll4
The country would be much better off banning it for over 60s based on the nonsense I see on facebook.
I'm off to South Africa for Christmas now. Mrs DA, being the sentimental type, wants to see what my boyhood Christmases on my grandfather's farm in the Karoo were like. It's also instructive for the Ukrainians to see a failed state in the unlikely event that they decide to return to Malorussia or the even more unlikely event that the tories win next year's GE.
Jeez, you are a twat at times.
But I've pointed out in the past that there seems to be a problem with channels on online games, where kids are getting some (ahem) interesting takes on the world.
..in reality it isn’t, not even comprehending (in any meaningful sense) any of the words that it is using. Hence it remains very easy to get AI to throw up nonsensical or obviously false statements if you play with what you know it will be trawling off its database...
Much if that would also be a true statement about us.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvpZZ6S18Ms
Seven minutes of tech business nostalgia posted by the BBC last night.
https://twitter.com/Jason_Garcia/status/1735012274685739313
IRS WHISTLEBLOWER: *accuses President Biden of influence peddling*
FOX NEWS HOST: Can Republicans prove all that?
IRS WHISTLEBLOWER: ... It's up to their investigation
FOX NEWS: So you're not sure about that question?
IRS GUY: Republicans are conducting the investigation
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1735324928168149318
I think you mean "allow".
It's disgraceful that - at a time when they have nothing better to do - teenagers are being barred from working. Good for this State Senator for stepping up.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/12/nra-gun-ownership-suicide-rates/676309/?utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
In actual elections the Lib Dems are winning all over the place, so why are the polls still so poor for them?
It's the LD polling figure moving up, rather than that of Reform, that should be bringing them out in a cold sweat.
Maybe Pack and Davey are masters of targetting. The May locals might be a bit of favourable political news for the party at just the right time
https://twitter.com/andrewteale/status/1735194409497481276?t=m7aZbDBAMA8i9H5JhO4RxQ&s=19
The workings of Dura's brain are indeed Byzantine on occasion.
https://www.404media.co/cmg-cox-media-actually-listening-to-phones-smartspeakers-for-ads-marketing/
..“Is this legal? YES- it is totally legal for phones and devices to listen to you. That's because consumers usually give consent when accepting terms and conditions of software updates or app downloads,” the website says.
Beyond CMG’s website, very little information is available about the capability, including how exactly the data is gathered, be that via a software development kit (SDK) bundled into apps, or via collection at another point. For its part, Apple does alert iPhone users when an app is accessing the device’s microphone with a small icon in the UI.
The marketing professional pitched by CMG told 404 Media that after a call with the company, they disabled microphone access on much of their own technology: “I immediately removed all my Amazon Echo devices and locked down microphone permissions on things like my phone as receiving confirmation they are doing things like this have confirmed my worst fears and I, for one, will not take part in it,” they said...
https://bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-67718635
"Christmas Song Lyrics in the style of Steven Wilson
Don't mention Christmas
Make it feel cold and lonely"
Which he has then written music for. Just to add to the fun, the accompanying animated video is also partly AI:
"AI artwork assets generated by an AI model trained on past SW music video releases and photos of Steven"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lQHqxPvzOI8