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Nikki Haley now clear second favourite for the GOP nomination – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,014
edited December 2023 in General
imageNikki Haley now clear second favourite for the GOP nomination – politicalbetting.com

With just a month to go before the first Primary in the 2024 presidential election, there has been a clear move in the GOP nomination betting to Nikki Haley the former governor of South Carolina.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    TimS said:

    Wouldn't 80% chance make him odds-on?

    Yes, four to one on.
  • Options
    "The incumbent Donald Trump is the favourite for the nomination but he’s no longer odds on. He’s rated by the markets as a 80% chance..."

    Surely an 80% chance is "odds on" by definition (i.e. more likely than evens)?
  • Options
    Not strictly on-topic but related.

    This GOP flap about Hunter Biden. They want a closed doors inquisition. He says "I have nothing to hide, lets do this in public". They say his action is "obstruction".

    Unless there is a national security angle - stop laughing - there is no reason for a closed session. So what do the GOP have to hide?
  • Options
    Savanta have released their poll taken earlier this week.

    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention

    📈17pt Labour lead

    🌹Lab 43 (=)
    🌳Con 26 (-2)
    🔶LD 10 (-1)
    ➡️Reform 9 (+2)
    🌍Green 4 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 3 (=)
    ⬜️Other 4 (=)

    2,079 UK adults, 8-10 December

    (chg 1-3 December)


  • Options
    FPT
    Leon said:

    Leon are you forgetting that you’re banned from posting AI images?

    The first was merely an example of a potential AI image (I’m not sure myself if it is AI or not). Can we not even discuss this issue? If we are unable to use examples it prevents us from properly debating a crucial area which may be pivotal in the next US/UK elex: AI fakery

    You can discuss it just don’t embed the images into your posts.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,125

    FPT

    Well it's rather reassuring to hear for once from the Secretary of State for Business and Trade. She's been so quiet of late I was beginning to wonder whether she was still amongst us. And of course there has been every reason to hear from her. She is the Minister currently in charge of the Post Office, so you might imagine that she would have something to say about the parade of liars, rogues, charlatans and crooks appearing on behalf of the PO at the Inquiry into the biggest public scandal of my lifetime.

    Instead, silence.

    I do not believe this is judicious restraint whilst the Inquiry gets on with its work. It is tacit support for the PO's policy of obstructing and delaying that work. Her Government owns the PO. It could tell its Board to stop acting the goat and start cooperating. You can draw your own conclusions from its failure to do so.

    Is Kemi complicit, or is she merely lazy, incompetent, and indifferent?

    TBF she is very busy with more pressing matters. Becoming Tory Party leader requires a decent amount of graft - or do I mean grift?
  • Options
    I increasingly wonder whether DeSantis will make it to the start line as it is increasingly hard to see how he turns it around having been on a slow roll downhill for months. I suppose he may as well hope Iowa goes okay - he has the backing of the Governor. But he's polling fourth in New Hampshire, and flirting with fifth.
  • Options

    FPT

    Well it's rather reassuring to hear for once from the Secretary of State for Business and Trade. She's been so quiet of late I was beginning to wonder whether she was still amongst us. And of course there has been every reason to hear from her. She is the Minister currently in charge of the Post Office, so you might imagine that she would have something to say about the parade of liars, rogues, charlatans and crooks appearing on behalf of the PO at the Inquiry into the biggest public scandal of my lifetime.

    Instead, silence.

    I do not believe this is judicious restraint whilst the Inquiry gets on with its work. It is tacit support for the PO's policy of obstructing and delaying that work. Her Government owns the PO. It could tell its Board to stop acting the goat and start cooperating. You can draw your own conclusions from its failure to do so.

    Is Kemi complicit, or is she merely lazy, incompetent, and indifferent?

    TBF she is very busy with more pressing matters. Becoming Tory Party leader requires a decent amount of graft - or do I mean grift?
    She is also, I believe, self-appointed Minister for Transgenger Issues.

    How does she find the time?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994
    The peroration of Kenneth Clarke’s Civilisation is quite something


    “All living things are our brothers and sisters”. Amen

    This simple speech is actually pretty good: as an entire philosophy of life

    https://x.com/durhamwasp/status/1679272195627917313?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,970

    Savanta have released their poll taken earlier this week.

    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention

    📈17pt Labour lead

    🌹Lab 43 (=)
    🌳Con 26 (-2)
    🔶LD 10 (-1)
    ➡️Reform 9 (+2)
    🌍Green 4 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 3 (=)
    ⬜️Other 4 (=)

    2,079 UK adults, 8-10 December

    (chg 1-3 December)


    2 ppt Con-Ref switch, while Lab glide on serenely.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,909
    edited December 2023
    FPT : Just agreed a commercial gas supply at 7 p/kwh.

    On topic - Trump still looking like the red hot fav.

    Related - 538 used to do a long run approval rating for presidents. Can't find it any more, perhaps it's gone with the ABC takeover.

    Edit Here it is:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

    Not great for Joe, sub 40...
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636
    FPT:
    Cookie said:

    BADENOCH: an epidemic of trans kids later regretting it
    MP: you likened people coming out as trans as a disease
    KEMI: LIAR. HOW DARE YOU! LIAR

    Its on *GBeebies* https://www.gjsentinel.com/news/national/watch-kemi-badenoch-warns-of-conversion-therapy-epidemic-targeting-gay-children/video_c8815a00-106e-5de8-9b44-9df82d028a0e.html

    Shouty Tory outraged at being called a liar whilst lying. Yep, definitely leadership material.

    But if gender dysphoria is not a disease, it is only through a bit of pedantry with tge semantics.
    But lets call it a condition rather than a disease. If any other condition had seen an increase in incidence that gender dysphoria has, we would be rightly alarmed and look for the reasons.
    The point about Badenoch is she called Kate Osborne a liar for claiming she, Badenoch, had likened people coming out as trans as a disease.

    Clearly, in calling it an epidemic, Badenoch was indeed likening it to a disease. The liar is Badenoch.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,358
    edited December 2023
    Hurrah a new by election seems likely.

    BREAKING: Conservative MP Scott Benton faces a 35 day suspension from the Commons following a newspaper sting that found him allegedly offering to lobby on behalf of the gambling industry.

    Another potential by-election looms, this time in Blackpool South.


    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1735225389700579491?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g
  • Options
    Whats the big prize for finishing 2nd without ever making a serious challenge? Is it merely a bit of favourable coverage on pb.com?
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554

    Savanta have released their poll taken earlier this week.

    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention

    📈17pt Labour lead

    🌹Lab 43 (=)
    🌳Con 26 (-2)
    🔶LD 10 (-1)
    ➡️Reform 9 (+2)
    🌍Green 4 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 3 (=)
    ⬜️Other 4 (=)

    2,079 UK adults, 8-10 December

    (chg 1-3 December)


    Savanta's routinely low scoring for the Greens is fascinating. Each of these pollsters seems to get very different scores for the minor parties. 4% (up from an even worse 3%) is miles out from the 8-9% of some.

    Notably the Lib Dem numbers are much more stable across the different companies, implying they're either all wrong or they are correctly sampling Lib Dems. I suspect that's because LD voters are more similar to Labour or Tory voters, i.e. more mainstream and easier to sample.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636
    Pulpstar said:

    FPT : Just agreed a commercial gas supply at 7 p/kwh.

    On topic - Trump still looking like the red hot fav.

    Related - 538 used to do a long run approval rating for presidents. Can't find it any more, perhaps it's gone with the ABC takeover.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,476

    Not strictly on-topic but related.

    This GOP flap about Hunter Biden. They want a closed doors inquisition. He says "I have nothing to hide, lets do this in public". They say his action is "obstruction".

    Unless there is a national security angle - stop laughing - there is no reason for a closed session. So what do the GOP have to hide?

    Inconvenient evidence being given a public airing.

    Given criminal cases are being pursued against Biden Jnr, Congress holding any kind of hearing targeted at him is problematic.
    There's a big separation of powers issue, since politicians are effectively front running a criminal case. And Hunter Biden has never held public office.

    So far they've presented zero evidence with regard to impeachment of President Biden, which might give some excuse for their behaviour.
    Indeed what evidence that has come out is actually against the Trump administration - his state department cancelling the corruption investigation into Burisma, for example.
  • Options
    Should be a Lab gain.


  • Options

    Hurrah a new by election seems likely.

    BREAKING: Conservative MP Scott Benton faces a 35 day suspension from the Commons following a newspaper sting that found him allegedly offering to lobby on behalf of the gambling industry.

    Another potential by-election looms, this time in Blackpool South.


    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1735225389700579491?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    Benton is almost a prototype example of what I lovingly described as the "thick as mince" cohort of 2019 Tory MPs
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554

    FPT

    Well it's rather reassuring to hear for once from the Secretary of State for Business and Trade. She's been so quiet of late I was beginning to wonder whether she was still amongst us. And of course there has been every reason to hear from her. She is the Minister currently in charge of the Post Office, so you might imagine that she would have something to say about the parade of liars, rogues, charlatans and crooks appearing on behalf of the PO at the Inquiry into the biggest public scandal of my lifetime.

    Instead, silence.

    I do not believe this is judicious restraint whilst the Inquiry gets on with its work. It is tacit support for the PO's policy of obstructing and delaying that work. Her Government owns the PO. It could tell its Board to stop acting the goat and start cooperating. You can draw your own conclusions from its failure to do so.

    Is Kemi complicit, or is she merely lazy, incompetent, and indifferent?

    TBF she is very busy with more pressing matters. Becoming Tory Party leader requires a decent amount of graft - or do I mean grift?
    She is also, I believe, self-appointed Minister for Transgenger Issues.

    How does she find the time?
    Transgenger issues is not far off Transginger issues, which would be true intersectionality.

  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554

    Should be a Lab gain.


    Any local ULEZ-style issues that could stymie this?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,162
    Go Haley. For us Trumpophobes it's good that the GOP field reduces ASAP to a binary 2 person Him v Not Him fight. And all the better if the Not Him isn't a horror like RDS or that ghastly Vivek Ramaswamy character.
  • Options

    Hurrah a new by election seems likely.

    BREAKING: Conservative MP Scott Benton faces a 35 day suspension from the Commons following a newspaper sting that found him allegedly offering to lobby on behalf of the gambling industry.

    Another potential by-election looms, this time in Blackpool South.


    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1735225389700579491?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    Benton is almost a prototype example of what I lovingly described as the "thick as mince" cohort of 2019 Tory MPs
    Jonathan Gullis is primus inter pares in that field.

    He is the reason why are schools are failing. Imagine getting taught by that roaster.
  • Options
    TimS said:

    FPT

    Well it's rather reassuring to hear for once from the Secretary of State for Business and Trade. She's been so quiet of late I was beginning to wonder whether she was still amongst us. And of course there has been every reason to hear from her. She is the Minister currently in charge of the Post Office, so you might imagine that she would have something to say about the parade of liars, rogues, charlatans and crooks appearing on behalf of the PO at the Inquiry into the biggest public scandal of my lifetime.

    Instead, silence.

    I do not believe this is judicious restraint whilst the Inquiry gets on with its work. It is tacit support for the PO's policy of obstructing and delaying that work. Her Government owns the PO. It could tell its Board to stop acting the goat and start cooperating. You can draw your own conclusions from its failure to do so.

    Is Kemi complicit, or is she merely lazy, incompetent, and indifferent?

    TBF she is very busy with more pressing matters. Becoming Tory Party leader requires a decent amount of graft - or do I mean grift?
    She is also, I believe, self-appointed Minister for Transgenger Issues.

    How does she find the time?
    Transgenger issues is not far off Transginger issues, which would be true intersectionality.

    Lol! Some of my typos are inspired.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,476
    edited December 2023

    FPT:

    Cookie said:

    BADENOCH: an epidemic of trans kids later regretting it
    MP: you likened people coming out as trans as a disease
    KEMI: LIAR. HOW DARE YOU! LIAR

    Its on *GBeebies* https://www.gjsentinel.com/news/national/watch-kemi-badenoch-warns-of-conversion-therapy-epidemic-targeting-gay-children/video_c8815a00-106e-5de8-9b44-9df82d028a0e.html

    Shouty Tory outraged at being called a liar whilst lying. Yep, definitely leadership material.

    But if gender dysphoria is not a disease, it is only through a bit of pedantry with tge semantics.
    But lets call it a condition rather than a disease. If any other condition had seen an increase in incidence that gender dysphoria has, we would be rightly alarmed and look for the reasons.
    The point about Badenoch is she called Kate Osborne a liar for claiming she, Badenoch, had likened people coming out as trans as a disease.

    Clearly, in calling it an epidemic, Badenoch was indeed likening it to a disease. The liar is Badenoch.
    Neither was lying - they were both arguing semantics.
    Performative nonsense on both sides, whichever one you might tend to sympathise with. (Very much not Badenoch, in my case.)
  • Options

    FPT:

    Cookie said:

    BADENOCH: an epidemic of trans kids later regretting it
    MP: you likened people coming out as trans as a disease
    KEMI: LIAR. HOW DARE YOU! LIAR

    Its on *GBeebies* https://www.gjsentinel.com/news/national/watch-kemi-badenoch-warns-of-conversion-therapy-epidemic-targeting-gay-children/video_c8815a00-106e-5de8-9b44-9df82d028a0e.html

    Shouty Tory outraged at being called a liar whilst lying. Yep, definitely leadership material.

    But if gender dysphoria is not a disease, it is only through a bit of pedantry with tge semantics.
    But lets call it a condition rather than a disease. If any other condition had seen an increase in incidence that gender dysphoria has, we would be rightly alarmed and look for the reasons.
    The point about Badenoch is she called Kate Osborne a liar for claiming she, Badenoch, had likened people coming out as trans as a disease.

    Clearly, in calling it an epidemic, Badenoch was indeed likening it to a disease. The liar is Badenoch.
    It seems quite possible that:

    Badenoch in her mind was not likening it to a disease.
    Osborne in her mind took the words as likening it to a disease.

    In which case neither is actually lying, they just have differing interpretations of the language and it is a miscommunication. Or equally plausible, one or both of them are being a touch mendacious. Let them get on with it, bigger things to be worried about.



  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636
    edited December 2023
    Leon said:

    The peroration of Kenneth Clarke’s Civilisation is quite something


    “All living things are our brothers and sisters”. Amen

    This simple speech is actually pretty good: as an entire philosophy of life

    https://x.com/durhamwasp/status/1679272195627917313?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    An uplifting thought for the day. Thanks.
  • Options
    TimS said:

    Should be a Lab gain.


    Any local ULEZ-style issues that could stymie this?
    Yeah. Blackpool truly is a shithole.
  • Options

    Hurrah a new by election seems likely.

    BREAKING: Conservative MP Scott Benton faces a 35 day suspension from the Commons following a newspaper sting that found him allegedly offering to lobby on behalf of the gambling industry.

    Another potential by-election looms, this time in Blackpool South.


    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1735225389700579491?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    Benton is almost a prototype example of what I lovingly described as the "thick as mince" cohort of 2019 Tory MPs
    Jonathan Gullis is primus inter pares in that field.

    He is the reason why are schools are failing. Imagine getting taught by that roaster.
    There was Good News for Stoke kids when he became an MP. Hopefully he gets a plush consultancy gig after he loses rather than going back to teaching.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554
    edited December 2023

    Hurrah a new by election seems likely.

    BREAKING: Conservative MP Scott Benton faces a 35 day suspension from the Commons following a newspaper sting that found him allegedly offering to lobby on behalf of the gambling industry.

    Another potential by-election looms, this time in Blackpool South.


    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1735225389700579491?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    Benton is almost a prototype example of what I lovingly described as the "thick as mince" cohort of 2019 Tory MPs
    Jonathan Gullis is primus inter pares in that field.

    He is the reason why are schools are failing. Imagine getting taught by that roaster.
    I was at a do on the commons terrace last year and he barged through the crowd with a fixed grimace on his face, crossing I think from one event to another, like a club rugby forward finding himself with the ball. Everyone turned round and started muttering "who was that, what a rude man?" until we worked out he was that Tory bloke from the red wall somewhere.
  • Options

    Hurrah a new by election seems likely.

    BREAKING: Conservative MP Scott Benton faces a 35 day suspension from the Commons following a newspaper sting that found him allegedly offering to lobby on behalf of the gambling industry.

    Another potential by-election looms, this time in Blackpool South.


    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1735225389700579491?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    Benton is almost a prototype example of what I lovingly described as the "thick as mince" cohort of 2019 Tory MPs
    Jonathan Gullis is primus inter pares in that field.

    He is the reason why are schools are failing. Imagine getting taught by that roaster.
    From Wikipedia: "Gullis described his classroom personality as "a mixture of Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg", and said that he "liked to play the character of an English gent". Gullis says that he was "nicknamed Grumpy Gullis – because I never smiled"."

    I 100% guarantee he wasn't nicknamed "Grumpy Gullis".
  • Options
    Leon said:

    The peroration of Kenneth Clarke’s Civilisation is quite something


    “All living things are our brothers and sisters”. Amen

    This simple speech is actually pretty good: as an entire philosophy of life

    https://x.com/durhamwasp/status/1679272195627917313?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Woke as fck.
  • Options

    "The incumbent Donald Trump is the favourite for the nomination but he’s no longer odds on. He’s rated by the markets as a 80% chance..."

    Surely an 80% chance is "odds on" by definition (i.e. more likely than evens)?

    And still value at that, unless you don't like the look of his health.

    Iowa is a bit of a comedy show. Many candidates have won there then flopped, or lost there and gone on to win the nomination. Winning it is usually a question of having motivated activists willing to go out for hours on a freezing cold evening in the MidWest and advocate for their choice.

    So who has the more devoted followers, and by how much, and by how many? Trump, surely. By miles.

    Haley is decent value as second-favourite in a 'meh, she'll do' sense if Trump falls. But she ain't beating him.
  • Options

    FPT:

    Cookie said:

    BADENOCH: an epidemic of trans kids later regretting it
    MP: you likened people coming out as trans as a disease
    KEMI: LIAR. HOW DARE YOU! LIAR

    Its on *GBeebies* https://www.gjsentinel.com/news/national/watch-kemi-badenoch-warns-of-conversion-therapy-epidemic-targeting-gay-children/video_c8815a00-106e-5de8-9b44-9df82d028a0e.html

    Shouty Tory outraged at being called a liar whilst lying. Yep, definitely leadership material.

    But if gender dysphoria is not a disease, it is only through a bit of pedantry with tge semantics.
    But lets call it a condition rather than a disease. If any other condition had seen an increase in incidence that gender dysphoria has, we would be rightly alarmed and look for the reasons.
    The point about Badenoch is she called Kate Osborne a liar for claiming she, Badenoch, had likened people coming out as trans as a disease.

    Clearly, in calling it an epidemic, Badenoch was indeed likening it to a disease. The liar is Badenoch.
    It seems quite possible that:

    Badenoch in her mind was not likening it to a disease.
    Osborne in her mind took the words as likening it to a disease.

    In which case neither is actually lying, they just have differing interpretations of the language and it is a miscommunication. Or equally plausible, one or both of them are being a touch mendacious. Let them get on with it, bigger things to be worried about.



    It's a tricky one. The word epidemic has a literal meaning and a more metaphorical one. Badenoch was clearly using its metaphorical meaning, she wasn't saying it was literally a disease. But she wasn't accused of saying it was a disease, but of likening it to a disease. To my mind if you use a word metaphorically whose literal meaning derives from the idea of a disease then you are on some level likening it to a disease, it has those same negative connotations. I think her outrage over this is absurd. But she seems to be obsessed by the whole issue, so perhaps it's unsurprising.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,909

    Should be a Lab gain.


    Lab gain is a foregone conclusion. The interesting thing to see will be the reform vote will be, with them perhaps being a bit more in people's minds after ol' Nige's jungle japes.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636
    edited December 2023

    Leon said:

    The peroration of Kenneth Clarke’s Civilisation is quite something


    “All living things are our brothers and sisters”. Amen

    This simple speech is actually pretty good: as an entire philosophy of life

    https://x.com/durhamwasp/status/1679272195627917313?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Woke as fck.
    He was indeed:

    "I believe in courtesy, the ritual by which we avoid hurting other people's feelings by satisfying our own egos"

    Top guy that Kenneth Clark.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,476
    On topic, I have updated my profile pic.
  • Options

    TimS said:

    Should be a Lab gain.


    Any local ULEZ-style issues that could stymie this?
    Yeah. Blackpool truly is a shithole.
    Quite an urban seat - including Blackpool Tower.
  • Options

    Hurrah a new by election seems likely.

    BREAKING: Conservative MP Scott Benton faces a 35 day suspension from the Commons following a newspaper sting that found him allegedly offering to lobby on behalf of the gambling industry.

    Another potential by-election looms, this time in Blackpool South.


    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1735225389700579491?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    "Likely" needs to be put in context. It's only likely if it's an autumn GE (which is still what I expect if Sunak remains PM). But the recall process will probably take until March-ish, assuming a vote in the Commons in January (it could be very late Feb). If the GE is May 2, that would overtake any by-election.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636
    Nigelb said:

    FPT:

    Cookie said:

    BADENOCH: an epidemic of trans kids later regretting it
    MP: you likened people coming out as trans as a disease
    KEMI: LIAR. HOW DARE YOU! LIAR

    Its on *GBeebies* https://www.gjsentinel.com/news/national/watch-kemi-badenoch-warns-of-conversion-therapy-epidemic-targeting-gay-children/video_c8815a00-106e-5de8-9b44-9df82d028a0e.html

    Shouty Tory outraged at being called a liar whilst lying. Yep, definitely leadership material.

    But if gender dysphoria is not a disease, it is only through a bit of pedantry with tge semantics.
    But lets call it a condition rather than a disease. If any other condition had seen an increase in incidence that gender dysphoria has, we would be rightly alarmed and look for the reasons.
    The point about Badenoch is she called Kate Osborne a liar for claiming she, Badenoch, had likened people coming out as trans as a disease.

    Clearly, in calling it an epidemic, Badenoch was indeed likening it to a disease. The liar is Badenoch.
    Neither was lying - they were both arguing semantics.
    Performative nonsense on both sides, whichever one you might tend to sympathise with. (Very much not Badenoch, in my case.)
    Only one of them accused the other of lying.
  • Options
    TimS said:

    Should be a Lab gain.


    Any local ULEZ-style issues that could stymie this?
    Labour would still win it, even on the Uxbridge swing.

    They'll win it vey easily.
  • Options

    Should be a Lab gain.


    But do you think it will be a waltz in the park for them?
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,698

    ......Conservative MP Scott Benton faces a 35 day suspension from the Commons following a newspaper sting that found him allegedly offering to lobby on behalf of the gambling industry......

    Well it's about time somebody lobbied for them!

  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636
    Pulpstar said:

    Should be a Lab gain.


    Lab gain is a foregone conclusion. The interesting thing to see will be the reform vote will be, with them perhaps being a bit more in people's minds after ol' Nige's jungle japes.
    People who watch I'm a Celebrity unlikely to be able to remember it by March, what with Christmas, New Year, winter and fuel price rises in between.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,476

    FPT:

    Cookie said:

    BADENOCH: an epidemic of trans kids later regretting it
    MP: you likened people coming out as trans as a disease
    KEMI: LIAR. HOW DARE YOU! LIAR

    Its on *GBeebies* https://www.gjsentinel.com/news/national/watch-kemi-badenoch-warns-of-conversion-therapy-epidemic-targeting-gay-children/video_c8815a00-106e-5de8-9b44-9df82d028a0e.html

    Shouty Tory outraged at being called a liar whilst lying. Yep, definitely leadership material.

    But if gender dysphoria is not a disease, it is only through a bit of pedantry with tge semantics.
    But lets call it a condition rather than a disease. If any other condition had seen an increase in incidence that gender dysphoria has, we would be rightly alarmed and look for the reasons.
    The point about Badenoch is she called Kate Osborne a liar for claiming she, Badenoch, had likened people coming out as trans as a disease.

    Clearly, in calling it an epidemic, Badenoch was indeed likening it to a disease. The liar is Badenoch.
    It seems quite possible that:

    Badenoch in her mind was not likening it to a disease.
    Osborne in her mind took the words as likening it to a disease.

    In which case neither is actually lying, they just have differing interpretations of the language and it is a miscommunication. Or equally plausible, one or both of them are being a touch mendacious. Let them get on with it, bigger things to be worried about.



    It's a tricky one. The word epidemic has a literal meaning and a more metaphorical one. Badenoch was clearly using its metaphorical meaning, she wasn't saying it was literally a disease. But she wasn't accused of saying it was a disease, but of likening it to a disease. To my mind if you use a word metaphorically whose literal meaning derives from the idea of a disease then you are on some level likening it to a disease, it has those same negative connotations. I think her outrage over this is absurd. But she seems to be obsessed by the whole issue, so perhaps it's unsurprising.
    In the same manner, stupidity is endemic among the Tories.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994

    Leon said:

    The peroration of Kenneth Clarke’s Civilisation is quite something


    “All living things are our brothers and sisters”. Amen

    This simple speech is actually pretty good: as an entire philosophy of life

    https://x.com/durhamwasp/status/1679272195627917313?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    An uplifting thought for the day. Thanks.
    I find myself increasingly Green - in the old fashioned sense - as I age. The damage we do to nature, our mother planet, distresses me intensely. Two weeks ago I was on a near-wilderness Cambodian island - probably the most beautiful beach was destroyed by plastic litter

    Ugh

    And the cruelty we inflict on animals: eeesh. They are our brothers and sisters, born at the same moment of Creation. I now eschew red meat unless it can be absolutely and ethically sourced, otherwise I eat sustainable fish, game, veg

    On the other hand I’m all up for a hard right populist government ready to deport everyone to Burundi. So it’s swings and roundabouts
  • Options

    FPT:

    Cookie said:

    BADENOCH: an epidemic of trans kids later regretting it
    MP: you likened people coming out as trans as a disease
    KEMI: LIAR. HOW DARE YOU! LIAR

    Its on *GBeebies* https://www.gjsentinel.com/news/national/watch-kemi-badenoch-warns-of-conversion-therapy-epidemic-targeting-gay-children/video_c8815a00-106e-5de8-9b44-9df82d028a0e.html

    Shouty Tory outraged at being called a liar whilst lying. Yep, definitely leadership material.

    But if gender dysphoria is not a disease, it is only through a bit of pedantry with tge semantics.
    But lets call it a condition rather than a disease. If any other condition had seen an increase in incidence that gender dysphoria has, we would be rightly alarmed and look for the reasons.
    The point about Badenoch is she called Kate Osborne a liar for claiming she, Badenoch, had likened people coming out as trans as a disease.

    Clearly, in calling it an epidemic, Badenoch was indeed likening it to a disease. The liar is Badenoch.
    It seems quite possible that:

    Badenoch in her mind was not likening it to a disease.
    Osborne in her mind took the words as likening it to a disease.

    In which case neither is actually lying, they just have differing interpretations of the language and it is a miscommunication. Or equally plausible, one or both of them are being a touch mendacious. Let them get on with it, bigger things to be worried about.



    It's a tricky one. The word epidemic has a literal meaning and a more metaphorical one. Badenoch was clearly using its metaphorical meaning, she wasn't saying it was literally a disease. But she wasn't accused of saying it was a disease, but of likening it to a disease. To my mind if you use a word metaphorically whose literal meaning derives from the idea of a disease then you are on some level likening it to a disease, it has those same negative connotations. I think her outrage over this is absurd. But she seems to be obsessed by the whole issue, so perhaps it's unsurprising.
    Literally this. Her outrage was performative - and also an outrage. Don't deliberately imply something, then call someone a liar when their inference is what you intended it to be.

    How stupid do these Tories think people are?
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,698
    Leon said:

    The peroration of Kenneth Clarke’s Civilisation is quite something


    “All living things are our brothers and sisters”. Amen

    This simple speech is actually pretty good: as an entire philosophy of life

    https://x.com/durhamwasp/status/1679272195627917313?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    [narrator: other views are available]

    "...I believe in justice, I believe in vengeance, I believe in getting the bastards..." (NMA, 1983)
  • Options

    "The incumbent Donald Trump is the favourite for the nomination but he’s no longer odds on. He’s rated by the markets as a 80% chance..."

    Surely an 80% chance is "odds on" by definition (i.e. more likely than evens)?

    I'd take issue with the word 'incumbent' to describe Donald Trump. There are no incumbents in a primary race and Tomorrow Is Another Day (as they say in the South).
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    Should be a Lab gain.


    Lab gain is a foregone conclusion. The interesting thing to see will be the reform vote will be, with them perhaps being a bit more in people's minds after ol' Nige's jungle japes.
    I can understand voter behaviours. Blackpool is the literal end of the world, albeit one in better condition than somewhere like Clackton.

    Blackpool was built around cotton town holidays. But the old-fashioned guest houses aren't what people want, neither is Blackers. So its been a perfect place to dump the people that nowhere else wants.

    No wonder people started voting Tory. Please rescue us from this malaise. Problem is that after promising big and delivering little, these voters have had a lesson in how cruel the blues are. Labour may have done three parts of diddly but at least they aren't performatively cruel.
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The peroration of Kenneth Clarke’s Civilisation is quite something


    “All living things are our brothers and sisters”. Amen

    This simple speech is actually pretty good: as an entire philosophy of life

    https://x.com/durhamwasp/status/1679272195627917313?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    An uplifting thought for the day. Thanks.
    I find myself increasingly Green - in the old fashioned sense - as I age. The damage we do to nature, our mother planet, distresses me intensely. Two weeks ago I was on a near-wilderness Cambodian island - probably the most beautiful beach was destroyed by plastic litter

    Ugh

    And the cruelty we inflict on animals: eeesh. They are our brothers and sisters, born at the same moment of Creation. I now eschew red meat unless it can be absolutely and ethically sourced, otherwise I eat sustainable fish, game, veg

    On the other hand I’m all up for a hard right populist government ready to deport everyone to Burundi. So it’s swings and roundabouts
    Sustainable Skye Terrier is definitely the way to go.
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The peroration of Kenneth Clarke’s Civilisation is quite something


    “All living things are our brothers and sisters”. Amen

    This simple speech is actually pretty good: as an entire philosophy of life

    https://x.com/durhamwasp/status/1679272195627917313?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    An uplifting thought for the day. Thanks.
    I find myself increasingly Green - in the old fashioned sense - as I age. The damage we do to nature, our mother planet, distresses me intensely. Two weeks ago I was on a near-wilderness Cambodian island - probably the most beautiful beach was destroyed by plastic litter

    Ugh

    And the cruelty we inflict on animals: eeesh. They are our brothers and sisters, born at the same moment of Creation. I now eschew red meat unless it can be absolutely and ethically sourced, otherwise I eat sustainable fish, game, veg

    On the other hand I’m all up for a hard right populist government ready to deport everyone to Burundi. So it’s swings and roundabouts
    Surely Green is uber-woke. After all, Climate Change is a massive woke lefty scam. Or so I keep being told.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,476
    About that peace deal.

    Putin says there will be peace with Ukraine "only when we achieve our goals [...] and those goals have not changed."

    They still include the "de-Nazification" and "demilitarization" of Ukraine – i.e. a total capitulation to Russia.

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1735228284391092582
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,476

    FPT:

    Cookie said:

    BADENOCH: an epidemic of trans kids later regretting it
    MP: you likened people coming out as trans as a disease
    KEMI: LIAR. HOW DARE YOU! LIAR

    Its on *GBeebies* https://www.gjsentinel.com/news/national/watch-kemi-badenoch-warns-of-conversion-therapy-epidemic-targeting-gay-children/video_c8815a00-106e-5de8-9b44-9df82d028a0e.html

    Shouty Tory outraged at being called a liar whilst lying. Yep, definitely leadership material.

    But if gender dysphoria is not a disease, it is only through a bit of pedantry with tge semantics.
    But lets call it a condition rather than a disease. If any other condition had seen an increase in incidence that gender dysphoria has, we would be rightly alarmed and look for the reasons.
    The point about Badenoch is she called Kate Osborne a liar for claiming she, Badenoch, had likened people coming out as trans as a disease.

    Clearly, in calling it an epidemic, Badenoch was indeed likening it to a disease. The liar is Badenoch.
    On the topic of palpable lies.

    We're not expecting an apology from the former Immigration Minister, but hopefully he'll reflect privately that Labour's calculations were correct - the barge does indeed cost the taxpayer £41,000 per day, as confirmed in HASC committee today.
    https://twitter.com/SKinnock/status/1735000616789827644
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,698
    Leon said:

    The peroration of Kenneth Clarke’s Civilisation is quite something


    “All living things are our brothers and sisters”. Amen

    This simple speech is actually pretty good: as an entire philosophy of life

    https://x.com/durhamwasp/status/1679272195627917313?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    For ll those of you who want the YouTube link from which the tweet takes the video, you can find it here:

    "The final moments of the final episode of Civilisation by Kenneth Clark", Literature Today - and Yesterday..., May 30, 2015, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XofkKmPrYA
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The peroration of Kenneth Clarke’s Civilisation is quite something


    “All living things are our brothers and sisters”. Amen

    This simple speech is actually pretty good: as an entire philosophy of life

    https://x.com/durhamwasp/status/1679272195627917313?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    An uplifting thought for the day. Thanks.
    I find myself increasingly Green - in the old fashioned sense - as I age. The damage we do to nature, our mother planet, distresses me intensely. Two weeks ago I was on a near-wilderness Cambodian island - probably the most beautiful beach was destroyed by plastic litter

    Ugh

    And the cruelty we inflict on animals: eeesh. They are our brothers and sisters, born at the same moment of Creation. I now eschew red meat unless it can be absolutely and ethically sourced, otherwise I eat sustainable fish, game, veg

    On the other hand I’m all up for a hard right populist government ready to deport everyone to Burundi. So it’s swings and roundabouts
    As a child in primary school we used to raise funds doing various sponsorship things for Burundi. I never found out what it was being spent on. Clean water perhaps, or school books. Or perhaps it was going straight into the pockets of warlords to fund ammo for child soldiers. It was called Burundi money. Only our class teacher was a Brummie. So whenever someone mentions Burundi I hear it in as Booroonday (moonnay).
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636

    "The incumbent Donald Trump is the favourite for the nomination but he’s no longer odds on. He’s rated by the markets as a 80% chance..."

    Surely an 80% chance is "odds on" by definition (i.e. more likely than evens)?

    I'd take issue with the word 'incumbent' to describe Donald Trump. There are no incumbents in a primary race and Tomorrow Is Another Day (as they say in the South).
    How dare you. President Trump is the only true legitimate President, don't ya know?
  • Options

    "The incumbent Donald Trump is the favourite for the nomination but he’s no longer odds on. He’s rated by the markets as a 80% chance..."

    Surely an 80% chance is "odds on" by definition (i.e. more likely than evens)?

    And still value at that, unless you don't like the look of his health.

    Iowa is a bit of a comedy show. Many candidates have won there then flopped, or lost there and gone on to win the nomination. Winning it is usually a question of having motivated activists willing to go out for hours on a freezing cold evening in the MidWest and advocate for their choice.

    So who has the more devoted followers, and by how much, and by how many? Trump, surely. By miles.

    Haley is decent value as second-favourite in a 'meh, she'll do' sense if Trump falls. But she ain't beating him.
    Health and legal woes. I think it's likely court hearings will play in his favour among GOP base. But it's just possible that it's seen as too much of a distraction from winning back the White House.

    I think you're a little unfair with the "meh". In a Trump-less contest, Haley would be a genuinely interesting GOP pick in a way DeSantis wouldn't.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The peroration of Kenneth Clarke’s Civilisation is quite something


    “All living things are our brothers and sisters”. Amen

    This simple speech is actually pretty good: as an entire philosophy of life

    https://x.com/durhamwasp/status/1679272195627917313?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    An uplifting thought for the day. Thanks.
    I find myself increasingly Green - in the old fashioned sense - as I age. The damage we do to nature, our mother planet, distresses me intensely. Two weeks ago I was on a near-wilderness Cambodian island - probably the most beautiful beach was destroyed by plastic litter

    Ugh

    And the cruelty we inflict on animals: eeesh. They are our brothers and sisters, born at the same moment of Creation. I now eschew red meat unless it can be absolutely and ethically sourced, otherwise I eat sustainable fish, game, veg

    On the other hand I’m all up for a hard right populist government ready to deport everyone to Burundi. So it’s swings and roundabouts
    Surely Green is uber-woke. After all, Climate Change is a massive woke lefty scam. Or so I keep being told.
    That’s why I said “old fashioned Green”. Be nice to animals. Don’t dump shit in rivers. Plastic is yuk. &c
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554
    Nigelb said:

    About that peace deal.

    Putin says there will be peace with Ukraine "only when we achieve our goals [...] and those goals have not changed."

    They still include the "de-Nazification" and "demilitarization" of Ukraine – i.e. a total capitulation to Russia.

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1735228284391092582

    He's looking notably smug at the moment. And who can blame him? The West is in the process of slowly but surely abandoning his quarry.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The peroration of Kenneth Clarke’s Civilisation is quite something


    “All living things are our brothers and sisters”. Amen

    This simple speech is actually pretty good: as an entire philosophy of life

    https://x.com/durhamwasp/status/1679272195627917313?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    An uplifting thought for the day. Thanks.
    I find myself increasingly Green - in the old fashioned sense - as I age. The damage we do to nature, our mother planet, distresses me intensely. Two weeks ago I was on a near-wilderness Cambodian island - probably the most beautiful beach was destroyed by plastic litter

    Ugh

    And the cruelty we inflict on animals: eeesh. They are our brothers and sisters, born at the same moment of Creation. I now eschew red meat unless it can be absolutely and ethically sourced, otherwise I eat sustainable fish, game, veg

    On the other hand I’m all up for a hard right populist government ready to deport everyone to Burundi. So it’s swings and roundabouts
    Surely Green is uber-woke. After all, Climate Change is a massive woke lefty scam. Or so I keep being told.
    That’s why I said “old fashioned Green”. Be nice to animals. Don’t dump shit in rivers. Plastic is yuk. &c
    You're also very concerned about climate change.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The peroration of Kenneth Clarke’s Civilisation is quite something


    “All living things are our brothers and sisters”. Amen

    This simple speech is actually pretty good: as an entire philosophy of life

    https://x.com/durhamwasp/status/1679272195627917313?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    An uplifting thought for the day. Thanks.
    I find myself increasingly Green - in the old fashioned sense - as I age. The damage we do to nature, our mother planet, distresses me intensely. Two weeks ago I was on a near-wilderness Cambodian island - probably the most beautiful beach was destroyed by plastic litter

    Ugh

    And the cruelty we inflict on animals: eeesh. They are our brothers and sisters, born at the same moment of Creation. I now eschew red meat unless it can be absolutely and ethically sourced, otherwise I eat sustainable fish, game, veg

    On the other hand I’m all up for a hard right populist government ready to deport everyone to Burundi. So it’s swings and roundabouts
    Sustainable Skye Terrier is definitely the way to go.
    I actually asked - around - where that Cambodian dog came from. The guide (who had no reason to lie, he told me he hates eating dog and disapproves) said they source them as strays from rural villages. So they lead nice lives, then pow. Caught. Soon Dead

    Better life than a battery chicken
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,698
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    The peroration of Kenneth Clarke’s Civilisation is quite something


    “All living things are our brothers and sisters”. Amen

    This simple speech is actually pretty good: as an entire philosophy of life

    https://x.com/durhamwasp/status/1679272195627917313?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    For ll those of you who want the YouTube link from which the tweet takes the video, you can find it here:

    "The final moments of the final episode of Civilisation by Kenneth Clark", Literature Today - and Yesterday..., May 30, 2015, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XofkKmPrYA
    And the transcript is here:

    Part 1

    0:00 At this point I reveal myself in my true colours
    0:03 as a stick-in-the-mud! I hold a number of beliefs that have been repudiated by
    0:10 the liveliest intellects of our time:
    0:12 I believe that order is better than chaos
    0:17 Creation better than destruction. I prefer gentleness
    0:24 to violence; forgiveness to vendetta.
    0:27 On the whole
    0:30 I think that knowledge is preferable to ignorance, and I am sure
    0:35 that human sympathy is more valuable than
    0:38 ideology. I believe
    0:41 that in spite of recent triumphs of science
    0:45 men haven't changed much in the last two thousand years
    0:49 and in consequence, we must still try to learn from history:
    0:54 History is ourselves.
    1:00 I also hold one or two beliefs that are more difficult to put shortly:
    1:03 For example, I believe in courtesy - the ritual by which we avoid
    1:08 hurting other people's feelings by satisfying our own egos
    1:13 And I think we should remember that we are part of a great whole -
    1:18 which for convenience
    1:20 we call Nature -
    1:23 All living things are our brothers and sisters.
    1:42 Above all
    1:42 I believe in the God-given
    1:46 genius of certain individuals and I value a society that makes their existence possible.
    1:55 [choral music]

  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,698
    edited December 2023
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    The peroration of Kenneth Clarke’s Civilisation is quite something


    “All living things are our brothers and sisters”. Amen

    This simple speech is actually pretty good: as an entire philosophy of life

    https://x.com/durhamwasp/status/1679272195627917313?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    For ll those of you who want the YouTube link from which the tweet takes the video, you can find it here:

    "The final moments of the final episode of Civilisation by Kenneth Clark", Literature Today - and Yesterday..., May 30, 2015, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XofkKmPrYA
    And the transcript is here:

    Part 1

    0:00 At this point I reveal myself in my true colours
    0:03 as a stick-in-the-mud! I hold a number of beliefs that have been repudiated by
    0:10 the liveliest intellects of our time:
    0:12 I believe that order is better than chaos
    0:17 Creation better than destruction. I prefer gentleness
    0:24 to violence; forgiveness to vendetta.
    0:27 On the whole
    0:30 I think that knowledge is preferable to ignorance, and I am sure
    0:35 that human sympathy is more valuable than
    0:38 ideology. I believe
    0:41 that in spite of recent triumphs of science
    0:45 men haven't changed much in the last two thousand years
    0:49 and in consequence, we must still try to learn from history:
    0:54 History is ourselves.
    1:00 I also hold one or two beliefs that are more difficult to put shortly:
    1:03 For example, I believe in courtesy - the ritual by which we avoid
    1:08 hurting other people's feelings by satisfying our own egos
    1:13 And I think we should remember that we are part of a great whole -
    1:18 which for convenience
    1:20 we call Nature -
    1:23 All living things are our brothers and sisters.
    1:42 Above all
    1:42 I believe in the God-given
    1:46 genius of certain individuals and I value a society that makes their existence possible.
    1:55 [choral music]


    Part 2

    3:00 These programmes have been
    3:01 filled with great work of genius: in architecture, sculpture and painting,
    3:07 in philosophy, poetry and music; in science and engineering
    3:10 There they are -
    3:13 you can't dismiss them and they're
    3:17 only a fraction of what Western man has achieved in the last 1000 years -
    3:21 often after setbacks and deviations
    3:25 at least as destructive as those of our own time.
    3:29 Western Civilisation has been a series
    3:32 of rebirths. Surely, this should give us confidence in ourselves.
    3:41 I said at the beginning of the series that it's lack of confidence more than anything else
    3:44
    3:45 that kills a civilisation: we can destroy ourselves by
    3:49 cynicism and disillusion, just as effectively as by bombs.

  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,698
    edited December 2023
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    The peroration of Kenneth Clarke’s Civilisation is quite something


    “All living things are our brothers and sisters”. Amen

    This simple speech is actually pretty good: as an entire philosophy of life

    https://x.com/durhamwasp/status/1679272195627917313?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    For ll those of you who want the YouTube link from which the tweet takes the video, you can find it here:

    "The final moments of the final episode of Civilisation by Kenneth Clark", Literature Today - and Yesterday..., May 30, 2015, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XofkKmPrYA
    And the transcript is here:

    Part 1

    0:00 At this point I reveal myself in my true colours
    0:03 as a stick-in-the-mud! I hold a number of beliefs that have been repudiated by
    0:10 the liveliest intellects of our time:
    0:12 I believe that order is better than chaos
    0:17 Creation better than destruction. I prefer gentleness
    0:24 to violence; forgiveness to vendetta.
    0:27 On the whole
    0:30 I think that knowledge is preferable to ignorance, and I am sure
    0:35 that human sympathy is more valuable than
    0:38 ideology. I believe
    0:41 that in spite of recent triumphs of science
    0:45 men haven't changed much in the last two thousand years
    0:49 and in consequence, we must still try to learn from history:
    0:54 History is ourselves.
    1:00 I also hold one or two beliefs that are more difficult to put shortly:
    1:03 For example, I believe in courtesy - the ritual by which we avoid
    1:08 hurting other people's feelings by satisfying our own egos
    1:13 And I think we should remember that we are part of a great whole -
    1:18 which for convenience
    1:20 we call Nature -
    1:23 All living things are our brothers and sisters.
    1:42 Above all
    1:42 I believe in the God-given
    1:46 genius of certain individuals and I value a society that makes their existence possible.
    1:55 [choral music]


    Part 2

    3:00 These programmes have been
    3:01 filled with great work of genius: in architecture, sculpture and painting,
    3:07 in philosophy, poetry and music; in science and engineering
    3:10 There they are -
    3:13 you can't dismiss them and they're
    3:17 only a fraction of what Western man has achieved in the last 1000 years -
    3:21 often after setbacks and deviations
    3:25 at least as destructive as those of our own time.
    3:29 Western Civilisation has been a series
    3:32 of rebirths. Surely, this should give us confidence in ourselves.
    3:41 I said at the beginning of the series that it's lack of confidence more than anything else
    3:44
    3:45 that kills a civilisation: we can destroy ourselves by
    3:49 cynicism and disillusion, just as effectively as by bombs.

    Part 3

    3:56 Fifty years ago, W.B. Yeats
    3:57 who was more like a man of genius than anyone I've ever known...
    4:00 wrote a prophetic poem - and in it he said: [Adopts Yeatsian accent]
    4:05 "Things fall apart;
    4:07 the centre cannot hold; Mere
    4:11 anarchy is loosed upon the world. The blood-dimmed tide is loosed,
    4:16 and everywhere the ceremony of innocence is drowned;
    4:23 The best lack all conviction
    4:26 while the worst are full of passionate
    4:29 intensity."
    4:32 Well, that was certainly true between the wars - and it damn nearly destroyed us.

    4:40 Is it true today?

    4:42 - Not quite because
    4:44 good people have convictions - rather too many of them.
    4:47 The trouble is that there is still
    4:50 no centre. The moral and intellectual failure of Marxism
    4:56 has left us with no alternative to heroic materialism
    5:00 and that isn't enough. One may be optimistic
    5:06 but one can't exactly be
    5:08 joyful at the prospect before us.
  • Options

    FPT

    Well it's rather reassuring to hear for once from the Secretary of State for Business and Trade. She's been so quiet of late I was beginning to wonder whether she was still amongst us. And of course there has been every reason to hear from her. She is the Minister currently in charge of the Post Office, so you might imagine that she would have something to say about the parade of liars, rogues, charlatans and crooks appearing on behalf of the PO at the Inquiry into the biggest public scandal of my lifetime.

    Instead, silence.

    I do not believe this is judicious restraint whilst the Inquiry gets on with its work. It is tacit support for the PO's policy of obstructing and delaying that work. Her Government owns the PO. It could tell its Board to stop acting the goat and start cooperating. You can draw your own conclusions from its failure to do so.

    Is Kemi complicit, or is she merely lazy, incompetent, and indifferent?

    What some PBers get wrong about Kemi is that in the race to become next Tory leader, she is not the right-wing candidate: she is the establishment candidate. (Source, Nadine Dorries.)
  • Options

    "The incumbent Donald Trump is the favourite for the nomination but he’s no longer odds on. He’s rated by the markets as a 80% chance..."

    Surely an 80% chance is "odds on" by definition (i.e. more likely than evens)?

    And still value at that, unless you don't like the look of his health.

    Iowa is a bit of a comedy show. Many candidates have won there then flopped, or lost there and gone on to win the nomination. Winning it is usually a question of having motivated activists willing to go out for hours on a freezing cold evening in the MidWest and advocate for their choice.

    So who has the more devoted followers, and by how much, and by how many? Trump, surely. By miles.

    Haley is decent value as second-favourite in a 'meh, she'll do' sense if Trump falls. But she ain't beating him.
    Health and legal woes. I think it's likely court hearings will play in his favour among GOP base. But it's just possible that it's seen as too much of a distraction from winning back the White House.

    I think you're a little unfair with the "meh". In a Trump-less contest, Haley would be a genuinely interesting GOP pick in a way DeSantis wouldn't.
    I think there's less to Haley than meets the eye. She's been after the White House for a long time and has played quite a canny game so far. However, those decent political skills mask, IMO, a bit of an emptiness underneath. Though overall, that wouldn't be a bad thing for America or the world.

    As you say though, Trump's legal woes are likely to strengthen his support with the GOP base - which is primarily what the primaries are about. And those woes don't even kick in properly until the race is well underway in voting terms. Health remains a concern but the actuarial risk continues to diminish week by week and we're very close to the starting line now (indeed, we're over it in terms of early voting).
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The peroration of Kenneth Clarke’s Civilisation is quite something


    “All living things are our brothers and sisters”. Amen

    This simple speech is actually pretty good: as an entire philosophy of life

    https://x.com/durhamwasp/status/1679272195627917313?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    An uplifting thought for the day. Thanks.
    I find myself increasingly Green - in the old fashioned sense - as I age. The damage we do to nature, our mother planet, distresses me intensely. Two weeks ago I was on a near-wilderness Cambodian island - probably the most beautiful beach was destroyed by plastic litter

    Ugh

    And the cruelty we inflict on animals: eeesh. They are our brothers and sisters, born at the same moment of Creation. I now eschew red meat unless it can be absolutely and ethically sourced, otherwise I eat sustainable fish, game, veg

    On the other hand I’m all up for a hard right populist government ready to deport everyone to Burundi. So it’s swings and roundabouts
    On the subject of diet, I am now signed up to Zoe Nutrition* which has somehow persuaded me to cut down on carbs, red meat and particularly processed meats, and eat more seeds, nuts, pulses, fish, and veg.

    It sounds awful but bizarrely, I am actually really enjoying it. Tried the Zoe recipe for Bircher muesli today. Normally, I'd avoid such things like the plague but.. it was bloody lovely!

    What's happening to me?!

    (*Is Zoe Nutrition any good? I'll let you know in 6 months)
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,949
    Just had to go to the post office to collect a card.

    The card had a counterfeit stamp on it because the person who sent it bought them from Amazon
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,530
    Leon said:

    The peroration of Kenneth Clarke’s Civilisation is quite something


    “All living things are our brothers and sisters”. Amen

    This simple speech is actually pretty good: as an entire philosophy of life

    https://x.com/durhamwasp/status/1679272195627917313?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    I keep meaning to watch the entire series. They ought to repeat it on TV more often.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,312
    edited December 2023

    Hurrah a new by election seems likely.

    BREAKING: Conservative MP Scott Benton faces a 35 day suspension from the Commons following a newspaper sting that found him allegedly offering to lobby on behalf of the gambling industry.

    Another potential by-election looms, this time in Blackpool South.


    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1735225389700579491?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    Typical smeary lefty media. As The Times headline reminds us, Scott Benton is not a Conservative MP.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scott-benton-mp-suspension-blackpool-by-election-v7hnqngvk (£££)
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,909
    Nigelb said:

    About that peace deal.

    Putin says there will be peace with Ukraine "only when we achieve our goals [...] and those goals have not changed."

    They still include the "de-Nazification" and "demilitarization" of Ukraine – i.e. a total capitulation to Russia.

    https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1735228284391092582

    In truth, Russia would snap your hand off for a deal along the current front tomorrow. Ukraine won't though, and quite right too. But that stance surely depends on the continued level of military assistance from Washington and the EU going forward.
  • Options
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The peroration of Kenneth Clarke’s Civilisation is quite something


    “All living things are our brothers and sisters”. Amen

    This simple speech is actually pretty good: as an entire philosophy of life

    https://x.com/durhamwasp/status/1679272195627917313?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    An uplifting thought for the day. Thanks.
    I find myself increasingly Green - in the old fashioned sense - as I age. The damage we do to nature, our mother planet, distresses me intensely. Two weeks ago I was on a near-wilderness Cambodian island - probably the most beautiful beach was destroyed by plastic litter

    Ugh

    And the cruelty we inflict on animals: eeesh. They are our brothers and sisters, born at the same moment of Creation. I now eschew red meat unless it can be absolutely and ethically sourced, otherwise I eat sustainable fish, game, veg

    On the other hand I’m all up for a hard right populist government ready to deport everyone to Burundi. So it’s swings and roundabouts
    As a child in primary school we used to raise funds doing various sponsorship things for Burundi. I never found out what it was being spent on. Clean water perhaps, or school books. Or perhaps it was going straight into the pockets of warlords to fund ammo for child soldiers. It was called Burundi money. Only our class teacher was a Brummie. So whenever someone mentions Burundi I hear it in as Booroonday (moonnay).
    The Brummie pronunciation of foreign words is probably no more wrong than the RP version.
  • Options

    "The incumbent Donald Trump is the favourite for the nomination but he’s no longer odds on. He’s rated by the markets as a 80% chance..."

    Surely an 80% chance is "odds on" by definition (i.e. more likely than evens)?

    And still value at that, unless you don't like the look of his health.

    Iowa is a bit of a comedy show. Many candidates have won there then flopped, or lost there and gone on to win the nomination. Winning it is usually a question of having motivated activists willing to go out for hours on a freezing cold evening in the MidWest and advocate for their choice.

    So who has the more devoted followers, and by how much, and by how many? Trump, surely. By miles.

    Haley is decent value as second-favourite in a 'meh, she'll do' sense if Trump falls. But she ain't beating him.
    Health and legal woes. I think it's likely court hearings will play in his favour among GOP base. But it's just possible that it's seen as too much of a distraction from winning back the White House.

    I think you're a little unfair with the "meh". In a Trump-less contest, Haley would be a genuinely interesting GOP pick in a way DeSantis wouldn't.
    I think there's less to Haley than meets the eye. She's been after the White House for a long time and has played quite a canny game so far. However, those decent political skills mask, IMO, a bit of an emptiness underneath. Though overall, that wouldn't be a bad thing for America or the world.

    As you say though, Trump's legal woes are likely to strengthen his support with the GOP base - which is primarily what the primaries are about. And those woes don't even kick in properly until the race is well underway in voting terms. Health remains a concern but the actuarial risk continues to diminish week by week and we're very close to the starting line now (indeed, we're over it in terms of early voting).
    We're not "over the line" in health terms until the convention. It doesn't matter how many delegates he gets - if he's unavailable to be candidate at the point of nomination, he isn't candidate.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,949
    edited December 2023

    Hurrah a new by election seems likely.

    BREAKING: Conservative MP Scott Benton faces a 35 day suspension from the Commons following a newspaper sting that found him allegedly offering to lobby on behalf of the gambling industry.

    Another potential by-election looms, this time in Blackpool South.


    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1735225389700579491?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    Typical smeary lefty media. As The Times headline reminds us, Scott Benton is not a Conservative MP.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scott-benton-mp-suspension-blackpool-by-election-v7hnqngvk (£££)
    Only because Scott was caught doing things other MPs do far more subtly

    The problem with the 2019 intake of MPs is that they are amateur grifters badly imitating what other MPs do way more competently (I.e. they know the quid pro quo will appear eventually but at some time in the distant future).
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,476
    edited December 2023

    FPT

    Well it's rather reassuring to hear for once from the Secretary of State for Business and Trade. She's been so quiet of late I was beginning to wonder whether she was still amongst us. And of course there has been every reason to hear from her. She is the Minister currently in charge of the Post Office, so you might imagine that she would have something to say about the parade of liars, rogues, charlatans and crooks appearing on behalf of the PO at the Inquiry into the biggest public scandal of my lifetime.

    Instead, silence.

    I do not believe this is judicious restraint whilst the Inquiry gets on with its work. It is tacit support for the PO's policy of obstructing and delaying that work. Her Government owns the PO. It could tell its Board to stop acting the goat and start cooperating. You can draw your own conclusions from its failure to do so.

    Is Kemi complicit, or is she merely lazy, incompetent, and indifferent?

    What some PBers get wrong about Kemi is that in the race to become next Tory leader, she is not the right-wing candidate: she is the establishment candidate. (Source, Nadine Dorries.)
    The establishment is right wing, though.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,909
    edited December 2023

    "The incumbent Donald Trump is the favourite for the nomination but he’s no longer odds on. He’s rated by the markets as a 80% chance..."

    Surely an 80% chance is "odds on" by definition (i.e. more likely than evens)?

    And still value at that, unless you don't like the look of his health.

    Iowa is a bit of a comedy show. Many candidates have won there then flopped, or lost there and gone on to win the nomination. Winning it is usually a question of having motivated activists willing to go out for hours on a freezing cold evening in the MidWest and advocate for their choice.

    So who has the more devoted followers, and by how much, and by how many? Trump, surely. By miles.

    Haley is decent value as second-favourite in a 'meh, she'll do' sense if Trump falls. But she ain't beating him.
    Health and legal woes. I think it's likely court hearings will play in his favour among GOP base. But it's just possible that it's seen as too much of a distraction from winning back the White House.

    I think you're a little unfair with the "meh". In a Trump-less contest, Haley would be a genuinely interesting GOP pick in a way DeSantis wouldn't.
    I think there's less to Haley than meets the eye. She's been after the White House for a long time and has played quite a canny game so far. However, those decent political skills mask, IMO, a bit of an emptiness underneath. Though overall, that wouldn't be a bad thing for America or the world.

    As you say though, Trump's legal woes are likely to strengthen his support with the GOP base - which is primarily what the primaries are about. And those woes don't even kick in properly until the race is well underway in voting terms. Health remains a concern but the actuarial risk continues to diminish week by week and we're very close to the starting line now (indeed, we're over it in terms of early voting).
    Haley is, I think, the ghost of GOP past. Trump's probably the present and someone like DeSantis (I know, I know), Ramasmarmy, Taylor-Greene, Bobbit, Gaetz or one of Trump's sprogs will get the nom 2028.
  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    FPT

    Well it's rather reassuring to hear for once from the Secretary of State for Business and Trade. She's been so quiet of late I was beginning to wonder whether she was still amongst us. And of course there has been every reason to hear from her. She is the Minister currently in charge of the Post Office, so you might imagine that she would have something to say about the parade of liars, rogues, charlatans and crooks appearing on behalf of the PO at the Inquiry into the biggest public scandal of my lifetime.

    Instead, silence.

    I do not believe this is judicious restraint whilst the Inquiry gets on with its work. It is tacit support for the PO's policy of obstructing and delaying that work. Her Government owns the PO. It could tell its Board to stop acting the goat and start cooperating. You can draw your own conclusions from its failure to do so.

    Is Kemi complicit, or is she merely lazy, incompetent, and indifferent?

    What some PBers get wrong about Kemi is that in the race to become next Tory leader, she is not the right-wing candidate: she is the establishment candidate. (Source, Nadine Dorries.)
    The establishment is right wing, though.
    Apparently Rishi is a remainy socialist, so again different language for different folks nowadays.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636
    eek said:

    Hurrah a new by election seems likely.

    BREAKING: Conservative MP Scott Benton faces a 35 day suspension from the Commons following a newspaper sting that found him allegedly offering to lobby on behalf of the gambling industry.

    Another potential by-election looms, this time in Blackpool South.


    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1735225389700579491?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    Typical smeary lefty media. As The Times headline reminds us, Scott Benton is not a Conservative MP.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scott-benton-mp-suspension-blackpool-by-election-v7hnqngvk (£££)
    Only because Scott was caught doing things other MPs do far more subtly

    The problem with the 2019 intake of MPs is that they are amateur grifters badly imitating what other MPs do way more competently (I.e. they know the quid pro quo will appear eventually but at some time in the distant future).
    He's a gay, old testament Christian. That might indicate a flexible to attitude to interpreting the rules.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,162
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The peroration of Kenneth Clarke’s Civilisation is quite something


    “All living things are our brothers and sisters”. Amen

    This simple speech is actually pretty good: as an entire philosophy of life

    https://x.com/durhamwasp/status/1679272195627917313?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    An uplifting thought for the day. Thanks.
    I find myself increasingly Green - in the old fashioned sense - as I age. The damage we do to nature, our mother planet, distresses me intensely. Two weeks ago I was on a near-wilderness Cambodian island - probably the most beautiful beach was destroyed by plastic litter

    Ugh

    And the cruelty we inflict on animals: eeesh. They are our brothers and sisters, born at the same moment of Creation. I now eschew red meat unless it can be absolutely and ethically sourced, otherwise I eat sustainable fish, game, veg

    On the other hand I’m all up for a hard right populist government ready to deport everyone to Burundi. So it’s swings and roundabouts
    Ah so you're sort of 'old school' Green? This reminds me of you claiming to be an 'old school feminist'.

    The advanced language skills on display here as usual. Using 'old school' in its lesser known but still perfectly valid meaning of 'not really'.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636
    edited December 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The peroration of Kenneth Clarke’s Civilisation is quite something


    “All living things are our brothers and sisters”. Amen

    This simple speech is actually pretty good: as an entire philosophy of life

    https://x.com/durhamwasp/status/1679272195627917313?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    I keep meaning to watch the entire series. They ought to repeat it on TV more often.
    What they should do is re-film the art and architecture to modern HD standards and use Clark's narration.

    Edit: The BBC's DVD issue in 2005 has remained in the catalogues, and Clark's accompanying 1969 book has never been out of print.
  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    FPT

    Well it's rather reassuring to hear for once from the Secretary of State for Business and Trade. She's been so quiet of late I was beginning to wonder whether she was still amongst us. And of course there has been every reason to hear from her. She is the Minister currently in charge of the Post Office, so you might imagine that she would have something to say about the parade of liars, rogues, charlatans and crooks appearing on behalf of the PO at the Inquiry into the biggest public scandal of my lifetime.

    Instead, silence.

    I do not believe this is judicious restraint whilst the Inquiry gets on with its work. It is tacit support for the PO's policy of obstructing and delaying that work. Her Government owns the PO. It could tell its Board to stop acting the goat and start cooperating. You can draw your own conclusions from its failure to do so.

    Is Kemi complicit, or is she merely lazy, incompetent, and indifferent?

    What some PBers get wrong about Kemi is that in the race to become next Tory leader, she is not the right-wing candidate: she is the establishment candidate. (Source, Nadine Dorries.)
    The establishment is right wing, though.
    Well yes, it is the Conservative Party after all. The story is that the shady backroom operators who ousted IDS and Boris, and imposed Michael Howard, David Cameron and Rishi Sunak on the party are promoting Kemi Badenoch.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Savanta have released their poll taken earlier this week.

    🚨NEW Westminster Voting Intention

    📈17pt Labour lead

    🌹Lab 43 (=)
    🌳Con 26 (-2)
    🔶LD 10 (-1)
    ➡️Reform 9 (+2)
    🌍Green 4 (+1)
    🎗️SNP 3 (=)
    ⬜️Other 4 (=)

    2,079 UK adults, 8-10 December

    (chg 1-3 December)


    As with all polls there are small variations in voters chosen method of getting rid of the Tories but no change in the direction of travel. I wonder whether the Tories could go all the way like other huge brands? Quite a few of the ingredients for collapse are in place. Primarily that they have lost their identity almost completely
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636

    Nigelb said:

    FPT

    Well it's rather reassuring to hear for once from the Secretary of State for Business and Trade. She's been so quiet of late I was beginning to wonder whether she was still amongst us. And of course there has been every reason to hear from her. She is the Minister currently in charge of the Post Office, so you might imagine that she would have something to say about the parade of liars, rogues, charlatans and crooks appearing on behalf of the PO at the Inquiry into the biggest public scandal of my lifetime.

    Instead, silence.

    I do not believe this is judicious restraint whilst the Inquiry gets on with its work. It is tacit support for the PO's policy of obstructing and delaying that work. Her Government owns the PO. It could tell its Board to stop acting the goat and start cooperating. You can draw your own conclusions from its failure to do so.

    Is Kemi complicit, or is she merely lazy, incompetent, and indifferent?

    What some PBers get wrong about Kemi is that in the race to become next Tory leader, she is not the right-wing candidate: she is the establishment candidate. (Source, Nadine Dorries.)
    The establishment is right wing, though.
    Well yes, it is the Conservative Party after all. The story is that the shady backroom operators who ousted IDS and Boris, and imposed Michael Howard, David Cameron and Rishi Sunak on the party are promoting Kemi Badenoch.
    That's a literal epidemic of imposed leaders.
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,987

    Nigelb said:

    FPT:

    Cookie said:

    BADENOCH: an epidemic of trans kids later regretting it
    MP: you likened people coming out as trans as a disease
    KEMI: LIAR. HOW DARE YOU! LIAR

    Its on *GBeebies* https://www.gjsentinel.com/news/national/watch-kemi-badenoch-warns-of-conversion-therapy-epidemic-targeting-gay-children/video_c8815a00-106e-5de8-9b44-9df82d028a0e.html

    Shouty Tory outraged at being called a liar whilst lying. Yep, definitely leadership material.

    But if gender dysphoria is not a disease, it is only through a bit of pedantry with tge semantics.
    But lets call it a condition rather than a disease. If any other condition had seen an increase in incidence that gender dysphoria has, we would be rightly alarmed and look for the reasons.
    The point about Badenoch is she called Kate Osborne a liar for claiming she, Badenoch, had likened people coming out as trans as a disease.

    Clearly, in calling it an epidemic, Badenoch was indeed likening it to a disease. The liar is Badenoch.
    Neither was lying - they were both arguing semantics.
    Performative nonsense on both sides, whichever one you might tend to sympathise with. (Very much not Badenoch, in my case.)
    Only one of them accused the other of lying.
    Having watched the exchange, I don't think Badenoch realised that Osborne was picking up on the word "epidemic" but was accusing her of having said elsewhere that it was a disease, and was duly incensed. Hence her demanding where and when she had said it. I don't know why Osborne didn't then refer to the word epidemic.
    They were at cross purposes.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,407
    edited December 2023
    Cookie said:

    BADENOCH: an epidemic of trans kids later regretting it
    MP: you likened people coming out as trans as a disease
    KEMI: LIAR. HOW DARE YOU! LIAR

    Its on *GBeebies* https://www.gjsentinel.com/news/national/watch-kemi-badenoch-warns-of-conversion-therapy-epidemic-targeting-gay-children/video_c8815a00-106e-5de8-9b44-9df82d028a0e.html

    Shouty Tory outraged at being called a liar whilst lying. Yep, definitely leadership material.

    But if gender dysphoria is not a disease, it is only through a bit of pedantry with tge semantics.
    But lets call it a condition rather than a disease. If any other condition had seen an increase in incidence that gender dysphoria has, we would be rightly alarmed and look for the reasons.
    There is plenty of alarm (well, curiousity, anyway) and looking at the reasons - e.g. Cass Review and research commissioned to support it. Unfortunately the data are not very good:
    • the clinics still largely work on paper and are reluctant to cooperate with research, in part due to feeling - not entirely unjustifiably* - that there's a bit of a witch hunt against them
    • some advocate groups have encouraged - due to a perception that the aim is to close down these services* - people who have attended clinics to exercise their opt-out rights so their data are not used in research
    So, researchers can't really get to the data they need and even if able to do so the sample may (this cannot be determined as they'd know nothing about those missing) be dominated by those with bad outcomes if those with good remove their data.

    *Sajid Javid (or others - I think it was 'sources close to the health secretary' or similar) leaked this intention to the press - that the research was to show how bad the Tavistock and endocrine clinics were - when he was on manoeuvres for the Tory leadership
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636
    Pulpstar said:

    "The incumbent Donald Trump is the favourite for the nomination but he’s no longer odds on. He’s rated by the markets as a 80% chance..."

    Surely an 80% chance is "odds on" by definition (i.e. more likely than evens)?

    And still value at that, unless you don't like the look of his health.

    Iowa is a bit of a comedy show. Many candidates have won there then flopped, or lost there and gone on to win the nomination. Winning it is usually a question of having motivated activists willing to go out for hours on a freezing cold evening in the MidWest and advocate for their choice.

    So who has the more devoted followers, and by how much, and by how many? Trump, surely. By miles.

    Haley is decent value as second-favourite in a 'meh, she'll do' sense if Trump falls. But she ain't beating him.
    Health and legal woes. I think it's likely court hearings will play in his favour among GOP base. But it's just possible that it's seen as too much of a distraction from winning back the White House.

    I think you're a little unfair with the "meh". In a Trump-less contest, Haley would be a genuinely interesting GOP pick in a way DeSantis wouldn't.
    I think there's less to Haley than meets the eye. She's been after the White House for a long time and has played quite a canny game so far. However, those decent political skills mask, IMO, a bit of an emptiness underneath. Though overall, that wouldn't be a bad thing for America or the world.

    As you say though, Trump's legal woes are likely to strengthen his support with the GOP base - which is primarily what the primaries are about. And those woes don't even kick in properly until the race is well underway in voting terms. Health remains a concern but the actuarial risk continues to diminish week by week and we're very close to the starting line now (indeed, we're over it in terms of early voting).
    Haley is, I think, the ghost of GOP past. Trump's probably the present and someone like DeSantis (I know, I know), Ramasmarmy, Taylor-Greene, Bobbit, Gaetz or one of Trump's sprogs will get the nom 2028.
    God, how depressing.

    Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
    Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
    The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
    The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
    The best lack all conviction, while the worst
    Are full of passionate intensity.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,983
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The peroration of Kenneth Clarke’s Civilisation is quite something


    “All living things are our brothers and sisters”. Amen

    This simple speech is actually pretty good: as an entire philosophy of life

    https://x.com/durhamwasp/status/1679272195627917313?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    An uplifting thought for the day. Thanks.
    I find myself increasingly Green - in the old fashioned sense - as I age. The damage we do to nature, our mother planet, distresses me intensely. Two weeks ago I was on a near-wilderness Cambodian island - probably the most beautiful beach was destroyed by plastic litter

    Ugh

    And the cruelty we inflict on animals: eeesh. They are our brothers and sisters, born at the same moment of Creation. I now eschew red meat unless it can be absolutely and ethically sourced, otherwise I eat sustainable fish, game, veg

    On the other hand I’m all up for a hard right populist government ready to deport everyone to Burundi. So it’s swings and roundabouts
    Ah so you're sort of 'old school' Green? This reminds me of you claiming to be an 'old school feminist'.

    The advanced language skills on display here as usual. Using 'old school' in its lesser known but still perfectly valid meaning of 'not really'.
    According to Alan Partridge's biography 'old school' is just a euphemism for 'alcoholic'.
  • Options

    "The incumbent Donald Trump is the favourite for the nomination but he’s no longer odds on. He’s rated by the markets as a 80% chance..."

    Surely an 80% chance is "odds on" by definition (i.e. more likely than evens)?

    And still value at that, unless you don't like the look of his health.

    Iowa is a bit of a comedy show. Many candidates have won there then flopped, or lost there and gone on to win the nomination. Winning it is usually a question of having motivated activists willing to go out for hours on a freezing cold evening in the MidWest and advocate for their choice.

    So who has the more devoted followers, and by how much, and by how many? Trump, surely. By miles.

    Haley is decent value as second-favourite in a 'meh, she'll do' sense if Trump falls. But she ain't beating him.
    Health and legal woes. I think it's likely court hearings will play in his favour among GOP base. But it's just possible that it's seen as too much of a distraction from winning back the White House.

    I think you're a little unfair with the "meh". In a Trump-less contest, Haley would be a genuinely interesting GOP pick in a way DeSantis wouldn't.
    I think there's less to Haley than meets the eye. She's been after the White House for a long time and has played quite a canny game so far. However, those decent political skills mask, IMO, a bit of an emptiness underneath. Though overall, that wouldn't be a bad thing for America or the world.

    As you say though, Trump's legal woes are likely to strengthen his support with the GOP base - which is primarily what the primaries are about. And those woes don't even kick in properly until the race is well underway in voting terms. Health remains a concern but the actuarial risk continues to diminish week by week and we're very close to the starting line now (indeed, we're over it in terms of early voting).
    We're not "over the line" in health terms until the convention. It doesn't matter how many delegates he gets - if he's unavailable to be candidate at the point of nomination, he isn't candidate.
    I agree (and made the point about health being Trump's biggest risk in that post). But even the Republican convention is only seven months away; it's not long.
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    eek said:

    Hurrah a new by election seems likely.

    BREAKING: Conservative MP Scott Benton faces a 35 day suspension from the Commons following a newspaper sting that found him allegedly offering to lobby on behalf of the gambling industry.

    Another potential by-election looms, this time in Blackpool South.


    https://x.com/paulbranditv/status/1735225389700579491?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    Typical smeary lefty media. As The Times headline reminds us, Scott Benton is not a Conservative MP.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scott-benton-mp-suspension-blackpool-by-election-v7hnqngvk (£££)
    Only because Scott was caught doing things other MPs do far more subtly

    The problem with the 2019 intake of MPs is that they are amateur grifters badly imitating what other MPs do way more competently (I.e. they know the quid pro quo will appear eventually but at some time in the distant future).
    Neither of the other grift resignations were 2019 intake - Paterson was 1997 and Warburton was 2015 (that scandal was wider but had grift elements). Nor were three of the sexual scandal resignations (Matheson, Parish, Hill). I think only Khan was 2019 intake of those who left in disgrace (Ferrier was a returning ex-MP in 2019 so doesn't really count).

    Not defending the class of 2019 in particular, but it isn't clear they've been uniquely scandalous.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,698

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The peroration of Kenneth Clarke’s Civilisation is quite something


    “All living things are our brothers and sisters”. Amen

    This simple speech is actually pretty good: as an entire philosophy of life

    https://x.com/durhamwasp/status/1679272195627917313?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    I keep meaning to watch the entire series. They ought to repeat it on TV more often.
    What they should do is re-film the art and architecture to modern HD standards and use Clark's narration.

    Edit: The BBC's DVD issue in 2005 has remained in the catalogues, and Clark's accompanying 1969 book has never been out of print.
    Can be done, if done sympathetically. The recent Daleks in Colour showed how programmes geared to 1960s audiences can be reformatted for the 2020s.

    Incidentally @Andy_JS, the whole Civilisation series is on YouTube

    Ep 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DMpoGi1MckQ
    Ep 2-13: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=waoEyjE_dtU&list=PL4dFk7XpP5b5R0c_7kCLYdvcdE-nVVaMa
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    isamisam Posts: 40,911
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    At the moment however DeSantis is second in the RCP Iowa caucuses poll averages on 19%, with Haley on 15% and Trump on 50%. Although Haley is second to Trump in NH
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2024/president/ia/2024_iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-8164.html
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,407
    eek said:

    Just had to go to the post office to collect a card.

    The card had a counterfeit stamp on it because the person who sent it bought them from Amazon

    Hefty claim against Amazon to be made?
    • Cost of postage recovery fee
    • Cost of fake stamps
    • Cost of time to re-tender procurement for replacement stamps
    • Responsible desposal costs for rest of fake stamps
    • Replacement cards for all items sent using counterfeit stamps (as some recipients may not collect)
    • Damage to relationship with recipients due to undelivered/late cards
    • Time dealing with Royal Mail and pursuing the claim against Amazon
    • Damage to your and sender's reputation for being associated with counterfeit goods
    • Legal fees related to all the above
    Get to four figures at least pretty quickly, I should think? :wink:
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    isamisam Posts: 40,911
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The peroration of Kenneth Clarke’s Civilisation is quite something


    “All living things are our brothers and sisters”. Amen

    This simple speech is actually pretty good: as an entire philosophy of life

    https://x.com/durhamwasp/status/1679272195627917313?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    I keep meaning to watch the entire series. They ought to repeat it on TV more often.
    It’s all on YouTube. I’m going to start watching it tonight
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,615

    FPT

    Leon said:

    Leon are you forgetting that you’re banned from posting AI images?

    The first was merely an example of a potential AI image (I’m not sure myself if it is AI or not). Can we not even discuss this issue? If we are unable to use examples it prevents us from properly debating a crucial area which may be pivotal in the next US/UK elex: AI fakery

    You can discuss it just don’t embed the images into your posts.
    Other than not having a Leon hobbyhorse why shouldn't @leon post AI images @TheScreamingEagles ?

    I can think of 2 arguments. Defamation in an image, which clearly wasn't the case here and potential copyright as the images will have been generated from other images, but that seems unlikely to be an issue here also particularly with these sort of images.

    Or are you trying to prevent such a situation arising?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983

    Nigelb said:

    FPT

    Well it's rather reassuring to hear for once from the Secretary of State for Business and Trade. She's been so quiet of late I was beginning to wonder whether she was still amongst us. And of course there has been every reason to hear from her. She is the Minister currently in charge of the Post Office, so you might imagine that she would have something to say about the parade of liars, rogues, charlatans and crooks appearing on behalf of the PO at the Inquiry into the biggest public scandal of my lifetime.

    Instead, silence.

    I do not believe this is judicious restraint whilst the Inquiry gets on with its work. It is tacit support for the PO's policy of obstructing and delaying that work. Her Government owns the PO. It could tell its Board to stop acting the goat and start cooperating. You can draw your own conclusions from its failure to do so.

    Is Kemi complicit, or is she merely lazy, incompetent, and indifferent?

    What some PBers get wrong about Kemi is that in the race to become next Tory leader, she is not the right-wing candidate: she is the establishment candidate. (Source, Nadine Dorries.)
    The establishment is right wing, though.
    Well yes, it is the Conservative Party after all. The story is that the shady backroom operators who ousted IDS and Boris, and imposed Michael Howard, David Cameron and Rishi Sunak on the party are promoting Kemi Badenoch.
    Except Badenoch tends to lead most membership polls too.

    Badenoch isn't establishment to anyone but Braverman and Truss fans like Dorries, Sunak, Hunt and Barclay are Tory establishment. Badenoch isn't
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983

    "The incumbent Donald Trump is the favourite for the nomination but he’s no longer odds on. He’s rated by the markets as a 80% chance..."

    Surely an 80% chance is "odds on" by definition (i.e. more likely than evens)?

    And still value at that, unless you don't like the look of his health.

    Iowa is a bit of a comedy show. Many candidates have won there then flopped, or lost there and gone on to win the nomination. Winning it is usually a question of having motivated activists willing to go out for hours on a freezing cold evening in the MidWest and advocate for their choice.

    So who has the more devoted followers, and by how much, and by how many? Trump, surely. By miles.

    Haley is decent value as second-favourite in a 'meh, she'll do' sense if Trump falls. But she ain't beating him.
    Health and legal woes. I think it's likely court hearings will play in his favour among GOP base. But it's just possible that it's seen as too much of a distraction from winning back the White House.

    I think you're a little unfair with the "meh". In a Trump-less contest, Haley would be a genuinely interesting GOP pick in a way DeSantis wouldn't.
    I think there's less to Haley than meets the eye. She's been after the White House for a long time and has played quite a canny game so far. However, those decent political skills mask, IMO, a bit of an emptiness underneath. Though overall, that wouldn't be a bad thing for America or the world.

    As you say though, Trump's legal woes are likely to strengthen his support with the GOP base - which is primarily what the primaries are about. And those woes don't even kick in properly until the race is well underway in voting terms. Health remains a concern but the actuarial risk continues to diminish week by week and we're very close to the starting line now (indeed, we're over it in terms of early voting).
    If he gets convicted however of a criminal offence the polls actually shows that would reduce Trump's support
    https://www.axios.com/2023/08/03/republicans-vote-trump-prison-poll-jan-6-trial
This discussion has been closed.