On whether Tories are right to make immigration such a focus a few different things are true in public opinion terms. 1. No doubt people are angry about failure/broken promises on tackling channel crossings. It’s the top reason 2019 Tories now say they would go elsewhere. pic.twitter.com/qUvqFtTeYJ
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"There's another familiar French story at the moment with teachers being threatened after showing pupils a painting of Diana and Actaeon by Giuseppe Cesari.
https://www.bfmtv.com/police-justice/on-s-estime-en-danger-une-professeure-d-un-college-des-yvelines-diffamee-apres-avoir-montre-une-oeuvre-representant-cinq-femmes-nues_AV-202312110259.html"
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I wish you'd stop being so negative about multiculturalism. Why not mention the positives - like the return of Blasphemy Laws to Denmark? So people who burn Korans go to jail?
https://unherd.com/2023/12/blasphemy-laws-have-returned-to-denmark/
Though I notice the relevant table (at least as shown here) doesn't allow for *legal* immigration, whether the view is that the Tories make it too easy, etc. etc. .
Some people on here tried to make out the net migration figures are only as high as they are due to a drop in British people leaving, but that isn’t true - more people than ever are arriving
When UKIP did well at a GE I think there was evidence that as UKIP initially grew (say up to somewhere in approx the 7% to 10% range) it principally damaged the Conservatives.
But any further incremental growth above that level damaged Labour more.
Might we be starting to see the above taking place now with Reform?
So, he blinks, concedes something to the hard right to avoid defeat and instead is defeated because he dislodges the soft left.
Potential Darwin Award later if Jenrick votes for the bill he resigned to protest against. The full Ben Swain experience.
Which brings me to my big issue: there has been good progress on the boat arrivals this year! Now, are they zero? No. But a competent government would be emphasizing what has been achieved so far, and promising more for the future, while warning Labour will fuck it up.
Instead, the government seems to be deliberately promoting the idea that it is failing.
The level of self immolation, even compared to 2010 and 1997, is staggering.
WHAT IS THAT ABOUT
I'm not sure there's the same reservoir of fed-up socially conservative Labour voters who stuck with it as once there were.
Labour lead the Conservatives on every policy issue, though one of their narrowest leads is on immigration.
NHS
Lab 49%
Con 23%
Cost of living
Lab 45%
Con 32%
Economy
Lab 42%
Con 32%
Immigration
Lab 39%
Con 30%
The predicted numbers turn out not to have been an exaggeration, and the rival politician says “Yes, but look at the benefits to the country’s GDP” or some such justification, whilst the public are saying “ What has happened to our neighbourhood? Why didn’t anyone listen?”
It's like living in a torture garden, we just get used to being persistently flailed by outbreaks of SLEET. In the DARK
Mankind was not meant to live at these cruel latitudes
* For London (And most of England), Aberdeen will be the 15th, Newcastle 14th.
This? THIS????
I don't wish any PB-er to be unhappy. If you like that climate, I am happy for your happiness
It just ain't me. I can't work out whether it is the dankness or the darkness which I dislike most
I adore the feeling of being able to walk outside in shorts and shirtsleeves at 9pm. I also like getting a healthy amount of Vitamin D and avoiding rickets
The appeal of Reform to Labour voters from 2019 is much more limited. Those voters weren't all Corbynites by any means - many voted Labour on general ideology/values, out of habit, as a Remain vote, to keep the Tories out and for all sorts of other reasons - but they were willing to live with Corbyn and oppose Brexit and Johnson. That doesn't strike me as a deep pool of potential Reform switchers.
I grew up in Scotland so find the amount of light in London, indeed the weather down here generally, extremely clement. Summers down here are tropical, and winters a lot more bearable. No more darkness at 3.30 pm!
LATEST:
Tide going out on rebellion victory tonight.
Lots of abstaining but leaders aiming now for bloody nose
January: Tropics
February: California
March: Alps
April: Portugal
May: Scottish Highlands
June: London
July: Scandinavia
August: Galicia or Brittany
September: Burgundy, Piedmont, Rioja or Georgia
October: Greek Islands or Sicily
November: Japan
December: Germany or Lapland
W@nker!
Have you ever been to Kenya, Tanzania, South Africa - the cradles of humanity?
There is something about the bush, the scent of the soil at twilit, the thrumming of the cicadas and the stirring of the predators and and the burning sun melting into warm velvet dark: it feels like HOME
I'm not joking. Especially the unique scent. It triggers something deep in our atavistic brain
Into the final three hours now. Still zero Tory MPs have actually publicly said they’ll vote against the bill.
With the Brexit NI rebellion last year there were lots of MPs publicly vowing to vote it down. It still fell short.
And then you voted Leave.
I would barely change a thing, except maybe February I'd veer south and go for the Maldives/Seychelles for some divng and snorkelling and - as I don't ski - I'd do Cuba or Mexico in March
Japan gets a bit too cold and grey in November, I'd do Japan in October and Egypt or Oman or India in November
There's a pink twilight sky fading to dark here in East Devon. It's a fine feeling to be warm inside watching it happen. It does get noticeably lighter here earlier in the morning than it did when we lived in Leamington and London.
If you really want dark mornings, though, go to Spain at this time of year. They are very definitely in the wrong time zone.
@IpsosUK
: 8 in 10 say Sunak govt doing a bad job on immigration / Reform up to 7% (highest ever from Ipsos) / Lab lead 17 🚨
Voting intention (v Nov)
Labour 41% (-5)
Conservative 24% (-1)
Lib Dems 13% (+1)
Greens 9% (+3)
Reform 7% (+3)
Other 6% (-)
I often think at Christmas how alien so much of the religious imagery is - deserts and camels and oases and so on. Speaks nothing to my soul. Home to me is snow, and hills, and trees, and cold; a low sun in a fading sky. I remember a snow covered dusk on a cloudy day above Macclesfield Forest a few years ago; a lone light in an isolated stone built cottage - that is the landscape I year for. That, to me, is home; that is the landscape that speaks to my soul.
That said, I went to Lapland last year and that didn't feel like home at all. So there is a thing as too far north.
I've never been to Africa, but it looks, frankly, shit. Sorry to dismiss 20% of the world's land area at a stroke, but there you are.
Or you can get a digital nomad visa and pay tiny amounts of tax - many countries now offer this, too. Do some research
The idea that Brexit closed all these doors and we are stuck is just bollocks, the mobility of the digital era means there are more opportunities than ever if you can be arsed
It could even mean the govt looking after people with dementia in NHS hospitals rather than that illness being farmed out to profit makers
But the bush - the wilds - the mountains and savannahs and jungles and forests - are maybe the greatest in the world
Cheers, mate..
Anyway I am enjoying Lisbon before heading for the Azores. Not dark here yet!
Enjoy!
Every day it got a tiny bit brighter and that was a small consolation. Maybe enough to stop me topping myself (literally)
Unfortunately it turned into one of the coldest wettest greyest springs in history. Which went on til late May. My god it was bad
Then I made my first escape from Britain to post Covid Majorca in the summer of 2021. I was borderline psycho
Still, I'm sure this mythical "sovereignty" will keep the seasonal affective disorder from our door with its sunlit uplands.
It's getting torn apart at committee stage before running out of time in the Lords. We know it, they know it, everyone knows it. And thats assuming Rwanda don't pull the plug as threatened...
There are digital nomad visas available everywhere, from Costa Rica to Mauritius to Malaysia to Sri Lanka to Bali (plus all the EU ones)
https://nomadgirl.co/countries-with-digital-nomad-visas/
Sri Lanka looks tempting. 270 days, no tax (AFAICS), meaning you can then spend the other 86 days in the UK and avoid UK tax altogether
I'm not going to call people racists, it's a bit of a pointless exercise. But don't expect me to get too exercised about immigration changing our demographics when my own children are an example of that, and I think this country is fucking privileged to have my children as its citizens.
Tory source says the chief whip has cancelled a talks with Rwanda rebel MPs at 5pm so he can hold what is described as an "emergency meeting" with No 10
It's just another day in the naval-gazing world of the parliamentary Tory party, their arse-from-elbow challenged leader and the breathlessly excited journalists that buzz around them.