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Starmer must be so happy tonight – politicalbetting.com
Starmer must be so happy tonight – politicalbetting.com
Exclusive— Reform leader Richard Tice tells @BloombergUK Nigel Farage will not join the Tories under Sunak— Tice says Reform will not do a deal with Sunak to stand down candidates— it means the right-wing vote will be split at the next election https://t.co/ffqElgcaWX
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It also, helpfully, describes their policy offering.
He's an exceptionally lucky politician thus far.
A lot of 2019 Boris voters are now voting Reform and more would do so if Farage led them rather than Tice.
Starmer is helped by the fact he is leaking less to the Greens now than Sunak is leaking to Reform
Boris Johnson has been unable to supply the Covid-19 inquiry with any of his Whatsapp messages for almost the entirety of the first lockdown.
Johnson was advised to stop using his old phone in May 2021 after it emerged that his number had been freely available online for 15 years.
He was initially unable to hand over Whatsapp messages to the inquiry because he could not remember the passcode. Earlier this year he was able to access the device with the support of experts and it had been assumed the messages were passed on.
However, Johnson has told the inquiry that even with access to the device, experts were unable to retrieve any of his messages from January 31 to June 7, which covers a critical period from the run-up to the first Covid lockdown to the easing of restrictions. “The technical team has been unable to determine the cause of this,” he has told the inquiry.
Johnson said that the content of the messages was likely to have been provided by others. A source close to Johnson denied that he had deleted the messages. Rishi Sunak has separately told the inquiry that he no longer has access to Whatsapp messages from his time as chancellor.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-fails-to-give-covid-inquiry-key-whatsapp-messages-hmfz7qkvc
I've not seen any election where significant numbers have voted for Refuk.
Where are these mythical elections where millions of 2019 Tory voters have voted for Reform? Because I've not seen any where that's the case.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/authors
I deleted the message with it in.
...who famously deleted portions of the Watergate tapes. By accident. 😃
'Millions of Women Are Waiting to RefUK You', was it? Probably some details in there.
20% of 2019 Conservative voters now back Reform to only 15% who have switched to Labour
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_231130_W.pdf
Cheers.
Voting is an action, which requires an election and is not the same as an opinion poll.
Opinion polls also said Ed Miliband is Crap but will be Prime Minister. Voting said otherwise. You claimed people are voting Refuk - when and where, or retract that nonsense, because polls aren't voting.
They have a Lost Horizon.
UKIP did get 12% of the vote in 2015 under Farage's leadership though, largely as the polls predicted
In 2019 there were eight opinion polls which showed Farage's Brexit Party polling not just ahead of the Lib Dems, but ahead of both Labour and the Tory Party too for the next election. The next election had rather different voting to that though.
Where is this mythical voting people are doing that you claimed? Polls are not voting, voting is something that happens at elections, so you should have actual election results to back up such an outlandish and obviously false claim.
The only votes that are cast, are cast at election, not in opinion polls.
Or can you not tell the difference between voting and opinion polls?
That is, get a bad sunburn even inadvertently > go to the brig.
Am starting to think, as a result of BoJo and other egregious examples such as last mayor of Seattle, that for politicos, "erasing" or otherwise disposing of text messages and the like done in course of official business, ought in itself be a felony or equivalent.
That is, erase text messages even inadvertently (yeah right) > go to jail.
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It's the only one they can still afford to send a reporter to.
I'm not expert enough to say whether it deserved to win. On the winner Jesse Darling (good name);
'He has said he was inspired by "the effects of many years of austerity, Brexit, the pandemic" and the "hostile environment" immigration policy.'
Might his political views have played a part in winning the prize? Not that there is necessarily anything wrong with that. However so much of contemporary art is supposed to be about 'challenging' the viewer isn't it? Which makes me think that the art world seems rather small 'c' conservative. Preferring works that reinforce what the target audience already believes instead of making them think again.
Jesse was born in Oxford and now lives in Berlin where he is presumably well placed to comment upon life in the UK in 2023
Actually, reckon that DJT likely knows MORE Latin than BoJo. From spending soooo much time in law courts.
The current feeble impersonation of a right wing party has to die, so that a Truly Right Wing Party can grow in its ashes.
Whether that is sensible logic is another matter.
Besides, the Conservatives are in a different place to where they spent the 2010s. Then, the votes they could get by courting UKIP et al were the difference between narrow victory and narrow defeat. Now they're the difference between a bad defeat and a worse one.
1) There is no vacancy at the Top of REFUK, and Tice shows no signs of creating one.
2) There is no unifying cause (like Brexit) to create bandwagon. Does anyone actually know any of REFUKs policies apart from being beastly to foreigners?
1. If the Tories experience a Canada-style wipeout, RefUK can be a player in the subsequent realignment of the UK Right.
2. If the Tories experience a 1997-scale defeat, they will just as likely move to the centre as lurch to the right. If the former, RefUK will have the populist right to themselves.
3. If Labour win but require the support of LDs, Greens or SNP (either for their first term or to gain a second term) the prospect of ditching FPTP becomes a possibility again, which would benefit RefUK.
Actually I probably would if I was a politician, but I shouldn't.
Point two is better but, as Sir Keir shows, it doesn’t really matter what your policies are if your opponent is committing suicide
Might Rishi start sending out feelers to Owen Jones?*
*tbh I think Owen has already made up his mind.
The contrast is striking. UKIP were scoring 12-13% in polls, but regularly hitting the 20s in Westminster byelections, and were winning lots of councillors.
Ref are on 9-11% in polls, not far behind 2010-15 UKIP, but they have only twice breached 5% in a Westminster by-election (in very Brexity Bexley and Sidcup, and Tamworth), generally getting 2-3%.
Conclusion: the polls are massively overstating Ref support (and I suspect green too).
No extension to the Brexit transition period
No privatisation of the NHS
Reducing immigration
Cutting VAT on domestic fuel
Banning the UK exporting its waste
Providing free broadband in deprived regions
Scrapping the television licence fee
Abolishing inheritance tax
Scrapping High Speed 2 (HS2)
Abolishing interest on student loans
Changing planning to help house building
Reforming the Supreme Court
Reform the voting system to make it more representative
Abolish the House of Lords
Making MPs who switch parties subject to recall petitions
Reform the postal voting system to combat fraud
Introduce Citizens’ Initiatives to allow people to call referendums
(This last point is an interesting one as their proposed threshold is 5m registered voters. Since the 2019 'Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU' petition had 6.1m signatures, it seems quite possible that a carefully worded Citizens' Initiative calling for, say, the UK to join the Single Market, would gain enough signatures to call a referendum. I can hear Brenda from Bristol right now.)
And they really are atrocities. This is quite different from "normal" warfare or even terrorism.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67629181
She was alive," the witness says. "She was bleeding from her back."
She goes on to detail how the men cut off parts of the victim's body during the assault.
"They sliced her breast and threw it on the street," she says. "They were playing with it."
The victim was passed to another man in uniform, she continues.
"He penetrated her, and shot her in the head before he finished. He didn't even pick up his pants; he shoots and ejaculates."
AND, from the same report:
Another, Nachman Dyksztejna, provided written testimony of seeing the bodies of two women in kibbutz Be'eri with their hands and legs tied to a bed.
"One was sexually terrorised with a knife stuck in her vagina and all her internal organs removed," his statement says.
-----------------
This is what Israelis are reading about. This is what they are learning was the fate of their young people. People they knew, and could well have been related to.
It's really impossible to see how there can be any meaningful ceasefire or cessation until the IDF has levelled Gaza. Israeli public opinion simply won't allow it.
I suspect, though, that even if that is true that the Israelis would consider waiting for the next generation of Hamas fighters to emerge to be preferable to leaving any they can get their hands on now untouched.
https://www.reformparty.uk/
The plan is to have Zero Waiting lists within 24 months by giving people the right to have a GP appointment with 3 days, a Consultant appointment in 3 weeks and a operation with in 9 weeks. If not provided they get a voucher to go Private.
That reads like a major cost pressure on a REFUK NHS budget.
Sure, some of that 10% will come out to vote for them. But as a smaller party, it's very hard to get over the whole "wasted vote" issue. The LibDems - and to a lesser extent the Greens - have done this by establishing themselves at the local level, getting Councillors elected, and banging on about "Winning Here".
Reform needs to get people to go out and vote for a party that will not win their local seat. "Vote for us now so we can establish a base for next time" is a difficult message to sell.
And without something "big" like EU exit, I think they'll struggle.
It may be bollocks of course, but that is what they say.
Hours after former Acting Speaker Patrick McHenry announced he will not run again, Republican Pat Harrigan releases a video declaring his candidacy: “God has placed a calling on our lives to enter the political arena.”
https://nitter.net/RonFilipkowski/status/1732151465597161641#m
Are they drugged up? Are they orders of magnitude more evil than any person I have ever met (even the genuinely nasty people I've met)?
It's often said that anyone is capable of murder, and I believe that in the right (or rather wrong) circumstances, that is true. But this is a level of depravity that I cannot comprehend.
(On reflection, it's not totally unprecedented - similar examples exist from WW2 and before, and no doubt more recent conflicts too. Baffling to me though.)
"It is of course a very bad idea to base foreign policy around the Rapture."
We need to deal with the death cult at the heart of top level American politics. I've been saying this for at least a decade."
https://twitter.com/chiller/status/1731796056373965216?t=01P5bF4hnUzBdHckIRxoJg&s=19
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Batley_and_Spen_by-election
Maybe after the Corbyn years it'd take more than losing that to oust the Leader, not easy in Labour after all, but it feels like it would have been very significant.
"This Sunak voodoo doll is so small - it's really hard to get the pins in."
A month or so later he was demanding we stay locked down because of ‘The Johnson Variant’, yet he can’t have really believed it was dangerous to socialise indoors anyway
6 Dec 2021, Redfield & Wilton, Con 38%, Lab 36%, LD 11%, Green 6%, RefUK 4%, SNP 4%.
https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1731890138253308307
Hope he's right.
Human beings are capable of terrible evil.
BTW there is little purpose in discussing Reform's policies - even the free unicorn for every child and owl for adults - as they are not going to be in the unhappy position of failing to deliver them. Notice that the mob who will be - Labour - are rowing back from the free owls with all haste, there being, as Byrne might have said, no owls left.
One further footnote, Cooper is an inspired choice for the talking head for labour on migration and all that. Few others would handle this dynamite so well and appear to say so much so passionately while saying nothing at all. Government of course will be a different matter.
Lefties Hamas lovers will be reaching for their remotes.