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Starmer must be so happy tonight – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,014
edited December 2023 in General
Starmer must be so happy tonight – politicalbetting.com

Exclusive— Reform leader Richard Tice tells @BloombergUK Nigel Farage will not join the Tories under Sunak— Tice says Reform will not do a deal with Sunak to stand down candidates— it means the right-wing vote will be split at the next election https://t.co/ffqElgcaWX

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Options
    First like Starmer.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    The best thing about Reform UK - in fact, the only good thing - is when teaching about them I get to say 'refuck' all the time.

    It also, helpfully, describes their policy offering.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952
    Starmer has one great quality.
    He's an exceptionally lucky politician thus far.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980
    edited December 2023
    If Farage came back to lead ReformUK based on the boost of his I'm a Celeb profile it is not impossible ReformUK could go even higher to about 15%+ and overtake the LDs for a clear 3rd place on votes as UKIP did under his leadership in 2015.

    A lot of 2019 Boris voters are now voting Reform and more would do so if Farage led them rather than Tice.

    Starmer is helped by the fact he is leaking less to the Greens now than Sunak is leaking to Reform
  • Options
    Hmm, I have my WhatsApp messages from 2012.

    Boris Johnson has been unable to supply the Covid-19 inquiry with any of his Whatsapp messages for almost the entirety of the first lockdown.

    Johnson was advised to stop using his old phone in May 2021 after it emerged that his number had been freely available online for 15 years.

    He was initially unable to hand over Whatsapp messages to the inquiry because he could not remember the passcode. Earlier this year he was able to access the device with the support of experts and it had been assumed the messages were passed on.

    However, Johnson has told the inquiry that even with access to the device, experts were unable to retrieve any of his messages from January 31 to June 7, which covers a critical period from the run-up to the first Covid lockdown to the easing of restrictions. “The technical team has been unable to determine the cause of this,” he has told the inquiry.

    Johnson said that the content of the messages was likely to have been provided by others. A source close to Johnson denied that he had deleted the messages. Rishi Sunak has separately told the inquiry that he no longer has access to Whatsapp messages from his time as chancellor.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-fails-to-give-covid-inquiry-key-whatsapp-messages-hmfz7qkvc
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181

    Hmm, I have my WhatsApp messages from 2012.

    Boris Johnson has been unable to supply the Covid-19 inquiry with any of his Whatsapp messages for almost the entirety of the first lockdown.

    Johnson was advised to stop using his old phone in May 2021 after it emerged that his number had been freely available online for 15 years.

    He was initially unable to hand over Whatsapp messages to the inquiry because he could not remember the passcode. Earlier this year he was able to access the device with the support of experts and it had been assumed the messages were passed on.

    However, Johnson has told the inquiry that even with access to the device, experts were unable to retrieve any of his messages from January 31 to June 7, which covers a critical period from the run-up to the first Covid lockdown to the easing of restrictions. “The technical team has been unable to determine the cause of this,” he has told the inquiry.

    Johnson said that the content of the messages was likely to have been provided by others. A source close to Johnson denied that he had deleted the messages. Rishi Sunak has separately told the inquiry that he no longer has access to Whatsapp messages from his time as chancellor.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-fails-to-give-covid-inquiry-key-whatsapp-messages-hmfz7qkvc

    What was the name of Nixon's secretary again?
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    If Farage came back to lead ReformUK based on the boost of his I'm a Celeb profile it is not impossible ReformUK could go even higher to about 15% and overtake the LDs for a clear 3rd place.

    A lot of 2019 Boris voters are now voting Reform and more would do so if Farage led them rather than Tice

    [Citation Needed]

    I've not seen any election where significant numbers have voted for Refuk.

    Where are these mythical elections where millions of 2019 Tory voters have voted for Reform? Because I've not seen any where that's the case.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,698
    Has anybody got a list of Times article writers from, say, the past two years? The list below doesn't cover them all

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/authors
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    edited December 2023

    Hmm, I have my WhatsApp messages from 2012.

    Boris Johnson has been unable to supply the Covid-19 inquiry with any of his Whatsapp messages for almost the entirety of the first lockdown.

    Johnson was advised to stop using his old phone in May 2021 after it emerged that his number had been freely available online for 15 years.

    He was initially unable to hand over Whatsapp messages to the inquiry because he could not remember the passcode. Earlier this year he was able to access the device with the support of experts and it had been assumed the messages were passed on.

    However, Johnson has told the inquiry that even with access to the device, experts were unable to retrieve any of his messages from January 31 to June 7, which covers a critical period from the run-up to the first Covid lockdown to the easing of restrictions. “The technical team has been unable to determine the cause of this,” he has told the inquiry.

    Johnson said that the content of the messages was likely to have been provided by others. A source close to Johnson denied that he had deleted the messages. Rishi Sunak has separately told the inquiry that he no longer has access to Whatsapp messages from his time as chancellor.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-fails-to-give-covid-inquiry-key-whatsapp-messages-hmfz7qkvc

    Anyone who believes this sort of guff is a mug, it's about as plausible as the many MPs who have claimed to have been hacked whenever they were caught posting something offensive.
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    Hmm, I have my WhatsApp messages from 2012.

    Boris Johnson has been unable to supply the Covid-19 inquiry with any of his Whatsapp messages for almost the entirety of the first lockdown.

    Johnson was advised to stop using his old phone in May 2021 after it emerged that his number had been freely available online for 15 years.

    He was initially unable to hand over Whatsapp messages to the inquiry because he could not remember the passcode. Earlier this year he was able to access the device with the support of experts and it had been assumed the messages were passed on.

    However, Johnson has told the inquiry that even with access to the device, experts were unable to retrieve any of his messages from January 31 to June 7, which covers a critical period from the run-up to the first Covid lockdown to the easing of restrictions. “The technical team has been unable to determine the cause of this,” he has told the inquiry.

    Johnson said that the content of the messages was likely to have been provided by others. A source close to Johnson denied that he had deleted the messages. Rishi Sunak has separately told the inquiry that he no longer has access to Whatsapp messages from his time as chancellor.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-fails-to-give-covid-inquiry-key-whatsapp-messages-hmfz7qkvc

    What was the name of Nixon's secretary again?
    Don't know.

    I deleted the message with it in.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181

    ydoethur said:

    Hmm, I have my WhatsApp messages from 2012.

    Boris Johnson has been unable to supply the Covid-19 inquiry with any of his Whatsapp messages for almost the entirety of the first lockdown.

    Johnson was advised to stop using his old phone in May 2021 after it emerged that his number had been freely available online for 15 years.

    He was initially unable to hand over Whatsapp messages to the inquiry because he could not remember the passcode. Earlier this year he was able to access the device with the support of experts and it had been assumed the messages were passed on.

    However, Johnson has told the inquiry that even with access to the device, experts were unable to retrieve any of his messages from January 31 to June 7, which covers a critical period from the run-up to the first Covid lockdown to the easing of restrictions. “The technical team has been unable to determine the cause of this,” he has told the inquiry.

    Johnson said that the content of the messages was likely to have been provided by others. A source close to Johnson denied that he had deleted the messages. Rishi Sunak has separately told the inquiry that he no longer has access to Whatsapp messages from his time as chancellor.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-fails-to-give-covid-inquiry-key-whatsapp-messages-hmfz7qkvc

    What was the name of Nixon's secretary again?
    Don't know.

    I deleted the message with it in.
    Water great mistake to make.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,698
    ydoethur said:

    Hmm, I have my WhatsApp messages from 2012.

    Boris Johnson has been unable to supply the Covid-19 inquiry with any of his Whatsapp messages for almost the entirety of the first lockdown.

    Johnson was advised to stop using his old phone in May 2021 after it emerged that his number had been freely available online for 15 years.

    He was initially unable to hand over Whatsapp messages to the inquiry because he could not remember the passcode. Earlier this year he was able to access the device with the support of experts and it had been assumed the messages were passed on.

    However, Johnson has told the inquiry that even with access to the device, experts were unable to retrieve any of his messages from January 31 to June 7, which covers a critical period from the run-up to the first Covid lockdown to the easing of restrictions. “The technical team has been unable to determine the cause of this,” he has told the inquiry.

    Johnson said that the content of the messages was likely to have been provided by others. A source close to Johnson denied that he had deleted the messages. Rishi Sunak has separately told the inquiry that he no longer has access to Whatsapp messages from his time as chancellor.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-fails-to-give-covid-inquiry-key-whatsapp-messages-hmfz7qkvc

    What was the name of Nixon's secretary again?
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rose_Mary_Woods

    ...who famously deleted portions of the Watergate tapes. By accident. 😃
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,405

    HYUFD said:

    If Farage came back to lead ReformUK based on the boost of his I'm a Celeb profile it is not impossible ReformUK could go even higher to about 15% and overtake the LDs for a clear 3rd place.

    A lot of 2019 Boris voters are now voting Reform and more would do so if Farage led them rather than Tice

    [Citation Needed]

    I've not seen any election where significant numbers have voted for Refuk.

    Where are these mythical elections where millions of 2019 Tory voters have voted for Reform? Because I've not seen any where that's the case.
    Wasn't there a book, by Sean who used to post here?

    'Millions of Women Are Waiting to RefUK You', was it? Probably some details in there.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980

    HYUFD said:

    If Farage came back to lead ReformUK based on the boost of his I'm a Celeb profile it is not impossible ReformUK could go even higher to about 15% and overtake the LDs for a clear 3rd place.

    A lot of 2019 Boris voters are now voting Reform and more would do so if Farage led them rather than Tice

    [Citation Needed]

    I've not seen any election where significant numbers have voted for Refuk.

    Where are these mythical elections where millions of 2019 Tory voters have voted for Reform? Because I've not seen any where that's the case.
    Reform are on 10% in the latest Yougov ahead of the LDs on 9%.

    20% of 2019 Conservative voters now back Reform to only 15% who have switched to Labour

    https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_231130_W.pdf
  • Options
    Nigel Farage = Sir Keir Starmer enabler.
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Hmm, I have my WhatsApp messages from 2012.

    Boris Johnson has been unable to supply the Covid-19 inquiry with any of his Whatsapp messages for almost the entirety of the first lockdown.

    Johnson was advised to stop using his old phone in May 2021 after it emerged that his number had been freely available online for 15 years.

    He was initially unable to hand over Whatsapp messages to the inquiry because he could not remember the passcode. Earlier this year he was able to access the device with the support of experts and it had been assumed the messages were passed on.

    However, Johnson has told the inquiry that even with access to the device, experts were unable to retrieve any of his messages from January 31 to June 7, which covers a critical period from the run-up to the first Covid lockdown to the easing of restrictions. “The technical team has been unable to determine the cause of this,” he has told the inquiry.

    Johnson said that the content of the messages was likely to have been provided by others. A source close to Johnson denied that he had deleted the messages. Rishi Sunak has separately told the inquiry that he no longer has access to Whatsapp messages from his time as chancellor.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-fails-to-give-covid-inquiry-key-whatsapp-messages-hmfz7qkvc

    What was the name of Nixon's secretary again?
    Don't know.

    I deleted the message with it in.
    Water great mistake to make.
    Have I opened the gate to another load of puns?
  • Options
    glw said:

    Hmm, I have my WhatsApp messages from 2012.

    Boris Johnson has been unable to supply the Covid-19 inquiry with any of his Whatsapp messages for almost the entirety of the first lockdown.

    Johnson was advised to stop using his old phone in May 2021 after it emerged that his number had been freely available online for 15 years.

    He was initially unable to hand over Whatsapp messages to the inquiry because he could not remember the passcode. Earlier this year he was able to access the device with the support of experts and it had been assumed the messages were passed on.

    However, Johnson has told the inquiry that even with access to the device, experts were unable to retrieve any of his messages from January 31 to June 7, which covers a critical period from the run-up to the first Covid lockdown to the easing of restrictions. “The technical team has been unable to determine the cause of this,” he has told the inquiry.

    Johnson said that the content of the messages was likely to have been provided by others. A source close to Johnson denied that he had deleted the messages. Rishi Sunak has separately told the inquiry that he no longer has access to Whatsapp messages from his time as chancellor.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-fails-to-give-covid-inquiry-key-whatsapp-messages-hmfz7qkvc

    Anyone who believes this sort of guff is a mug, it's about as plausible as the many MPs who have claimed to have been hacked whenever they were caught posting something offensive.
    Surely the good owners of WhatsApp have all the messages on their servers?
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,937
    glw said:

    Hmm, I have my WhatsApp messages from 2012.

    Boris Johnson has been unable to supply the Covid-19 inquiry with any of his Whatsapp messages for almost the entirety of the first lockdown.

    Johnson was advised to stop using his old phone in May 2021 after it emerged that his number had been freely available online for 15 years.

    He was initially unable to hand over Whatsapp messages to the inquiry because he could not remember the passcode. Earlier this year he was able to access the device with the support of experts and it had been assumed the messages were passed on.

    However, Johnson has told the inquiry that even with access to the device, experts were unable to retrieve any of his messages from January 31 to June 7, which covers a critical period from the run-up to the first Covid lockdown to the easing of restrictions. “The technical team has been unable to determine the cause of this,” he has told the inquiry.

    Johnson said that the content of the messages was likely to have been provided by others. A source close to Johnson denied that he had deleted the messages. Rishi Sunak has separately told the inquiry that he no longer has access to Whatsapp messages from his time as chancellor.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-fails-to-give-covid-inquiry-key-whatsapp-messages-hmfz7qkvc

    Anyone who believes this sort of guff is a mug, it's about as plausible as the many MPs who have claimed to have been hacked whenever they were caught posting something offensive.
    can you show me all your messages on every electronic forum, along with any written diaries or memos you may have made, in professional and personal capacities, over the last four years?

    Cheers. :)
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938

    Hmm, I have my WhatsApp messages from 2012.

    Boris Johnson has been unable to supply the Covid-19 inquiry with any of his Whatsapp messages for almost the entirety of the first lockdown.

    Johnson was advised to stop using his old phone in May 2021 after it emerged that his number had been freely available online for 15 years.

    He was initially unable to hand over Whatsapp messages to the inquiry because he could not remember the passcode. Earlier this year he was able to access the device with the support of experts and it had been assumed the messages were passed on.

    However, Johnson has told the inquiry that even with access to the device, experts were unable to retrieve any of his messages from January 31 to June 7, which covers a critical period from the run-up to the first Covid lockdown to the easing of restrictions. “The technical team has been unable to determine the cause of this,” he has told the inquiry.

    Johnson said that the content of the messages was likely to have been provided by others. A source close to Johnson denied that he had deleted the messages. Rishi Sunak has separately told the inquiry that he no longer has access to Whatsapp messages from his time as chancellor.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-fails-to-give-covid-inquiry-key-whatsapp-messages-hmfz7qkvc

    My God: you knew the pandemic was coming back in 2012???

  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Farage came back to lead ReformUK based on the boost of his I'm a Celeb profile it is not impossible ReformUK could go even higher to about 15% and overtake the LDs for a clear 3rd place.

    A lot of 2019 Boris voters are now voting Reform and more would do so if Farage led them rather than Tice

    [Citation Needed]

    I've not seen any election where significant numbers have voted for Refuk.

    Where are these mythical elections where millions of 2019 Tory voters have voted for Reform? Because I've not seen any where that's the case.
    Reform are on 10% in the latest Yougov ahead of the LDs on 9%.

    20% of 2019 Conservative voters now back Reform to only 15% who have switched to Labour

    https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_231130_W.pdf
    That's opinion poll bollocks, not what you said which is voting.

    Voting is an action, which requires an election and is not the same as an opinion poll.

    Opinion polls also said Ed Miliband is Crap but will be Prime Minister. Voting said otherwise. You claimed people are voting Refuk - when and where, or retract that nonsense, because polls aren't voting.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181

    glw said:

    Hmm, I have my WhatsApp messages from 2012.

    Boris Johnson has been unable to supply the Covid-19 inquiry with any of his Whatsapp messages for almost the entirety of the first lockdown.

    Johnson was advised to stop using his old phone in May 2021 after it emerged that his number had been freely available online for 15 years.

    He was initially unable to hand over Whatsapp messages to the inquiry because he could not remember the passcode. Earlier this year he was able to access the device with the support of experts and it had been assumed the messages were passed on.

    However, Johnson has told the inquiry that even with access to the device, experts were unable to retrieve any of his messages from January 31 to June 7, which covers a critical period from the run-up to the first Covid lockdown to the easing of restrictions. “The technical team has been unable to determine the cause of this,” he has told the inquiry.

    Johnson said that the content of the messages was likely to have been provided by others. A source close to Johnson denied that he had deleted the messages. Rishi Sunak has separately told the inquiry that he no longer has access to Whatsapp messages from his time as chancellor.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-fails-to-give-covid-inquiry-key-whatsapp-messages-hmfz7qkvc

    Anyone who believes this sort of guff is a mug, it's about as plausible as the many MPs who have claimed to have been hacked whenever they were caught posting something offensive.
    can you show me all your messages on every electronic forum, along with any written diaries or memos you may have made, in professional and personal capacities, over the last four years?

    Cheers. :)
    If it were the Post Office, probably not.

    They have a Lost Horizon.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636
    edited December 2023

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Hmm, I have my WhatsApp messages from 2012.

    Boris Johnson has been unable to supply the Covid-19 inquiry with any of his Whatsapp messages for almost the entirety of the first lockdown.

    Johnson was advised to stop using his old phone in May 2021 after it emerged that his number had been freely available online for 15 years.

    He was initially unable to hand over Whatsapp messages to the inquiry because he could not remember the passcode. Earlier this year he was able to access the device with the support of experts and it had been assumed the messages were passed on.

    However, Johnson has told the inquiry that even with access to the device, experts were unable to retrieve any of his messages from January 31 to June 7, which covers a critical period from the run-up to the first Covid lockdown to the easing of restrictions. “The technical team has been unable to determine the cause of this,” he has told the inquiry.

    Johnson said that the content of the messages was likely to have been provided by others. A source close to Johnson denied that he had deleted the messages. Rishi Sunak has separately told the inquiry that he no longer has access to Whatsapp messages from his time as chancellor.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-fails-to-give-covid-inquiry-key-whatsapp-messages-hmfz7qkvc

    What was the name of Nixon's secretary again?
    Don't know.

    I deleted the message with it in.
    Water great mistake to make.
    Have I opened the gate to another load of puns?
    This could Spiro out of control; time for Agnew pun topic, maybe?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Farage came back to lead ReformUK based on the boost of his I'm a Celeb profile it is not impossible ReformUK could go even higher to about 15% and overtake the LDs for a clear 3rd place.

    A lot of 2019 Boris voters are now voting Reform and more would do so if Farage led them rather than Tice

    [Citation Needed]

    I've not seen any election where significant numbers have voted for Refuk.

    Where are these mythical elections where millions of 2019 Tory voters have voted for Reform? Because I've not seen any where that's the case.
    Reform are on 10% in the latest Yougov ahead of the LDs on 9%.

    20% of 2019 Conservative voters now back Reform to only 15% who have switched to Labour

    https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_231130_W.pdf
    That's opinion poll bollocks, not what you said which is voting.

    Voting is an action, which requires an election and is not the same as an opinion poll.

    Opinion polls also said Ed Miliband is Crap but will be Prime Minister. Voting said otherwise. You claimed people are voting Refuk - when and where, or retract that nonsense, because polls aren't voting.
    They didn't actually, the polls were neck and neck in 2015 but with Cameron ahead as preferred PM.

    UKIP did get 12% of the vote in 2015 under Farage's leadership though, largely as the polls predicted
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,203

    glw said:

    Hmm, I have my WhatsApp messages from 2012.

    Boris Johnson has been unable to supply the Covid-19 inquiry with any of his Whatsapp messages for almost the entirety of the first lockdown.

    Johnson was advised to stop using his old phone in May 2021 after it emerged that his number had been freely available online for 15 years.

    He was initially unable to hand over Whatsapp messages to the inquiry because he could not remember the passcode. Earlier this year he was able to access the device with the support of experts and it had been assumed the messages were passed on.

    However, Johnson has told the inquiry that even with access to the device, experts were unable to retrieve any of his messages from January 31 to June 7, which covers a critical period from the run-up to the first Covid lockdown to the easing of restrictions. “The technical team has been unable to determine the cause of this,” he has told the inquiry.

    Johnson said that the content of the messages was likely to have been provided by others. A source close to Johnson denied that he had deleted the messages. Rishi Sunak has separately told the inquiry that he no longer has access to Whatsapp messages from his time as chancellor.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-fails-to-give-covid-inquiry-key-whatsapp-messages-hmfz7qkvc

    Anyone who believes this sort of guff is a mug, it's about as plausible as the many MPs who have claimed to have been hacked whenever they were caught posting something offensive.
    can you show me all your messages on every electronic forum, along with any written diaries or memos you may have made, in professional and personal capacities, over the last four years?

    Cheers. :)
    Anything that’s written will be there. As nobody deleted them. Everybody knows Johnson’s Whatsapp will be full of inappropriate, hubristic commentary. How convenient that they’ve been disappeared.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,162
    dixiedean said:

    Starmer has one great quality.
    He's an exceptionally lucky politician thus far.

    "Harder I practice, the luckier I get" ... said somebody or other.
  • Options
    Surely it's in Tice's own interest to help the Tories. If they are annihilated then the optics will be that the Great British public has thoroughly rejected right-wing politics, and Reform will be left looking even more irrelevant than they already are.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980

    Surely it's in Tice's own interest to help the Tories. If they are annihilated then the optics will be that the Great British public has thoroughly rejected right-wing politics, and Reform will be left looking even more irrelevant than they already are.

    If they are annihilated but Reform are on 10-15% of the vote however they can use that as bargaining power to force the Tories further to the right in opposition
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578
    edited December 2023

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Hmm, I have my WhatsApp messages from 2012.

    Boris Johnson has been unable to supply the Covid-19 inquiry with any of his Whatsapp messages for almost the entirety of the first lockdown.

    Johnson was advised to stop using his old phone in May 2021 after it emerged that his number had been freely available online for 15 years.

    He was initially unable to hand over Whatsapp messages to the inquiry because he could not remember the passcode. Earlier this year he was able to access the device with the support of experts and it had been assumed the messages were passed on.

    However, Johnson has told the inquiry that even with access to the device, experts were unable to retrieve any of his messages from January 31 to June 7, which covers a critical period from the run-up to the first Covid lockdown to the easing of restrictions. “The technical team has been unable to determine the cause of this,” he has told the inquiry.

    Johnson said that the content of the messages was likely to have been provided by others. A source close to Johnson denied that he had deleted the messages. Rishi Sunak has separately told the inquiry that he no longer has access to Whatsapp messages from his time as chancellor.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-fails-to-give-covid-inquiry-key-whatsapp-messages-hmfz7qkvc

    What was the name of Nixon's secretary again?
    Don't know.

    I deleted the message with it in.
    Water great mistake to make.
    Have I opened the gate to another load of puns?
    This could Spiro out of control; time for Agnew pun topic, maybe?
    Can we a Ford to change so soon?
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Farage came back to lead ReformUK based on the boost of his I'm a Celeb profile it is not impossible ReformUK could go even higher to about 15% and overtake the LDs for a clear 3rd place.

    A lot of 2019 Boris voters are now voting Reform and more would do so if Farage led them rather than Tice

    [Citation Needed]

    I've not seen any election where significant numbers have voted for Refuk.

    Where are these mythical elections where millions of 2019 Tory voters have voted for Reform? Because I've not seen any where that's the case.
    Reform are on 10% in the latest Yougov ahead of the LDs on 9%.

    20% of 2019 Conservative voters now back Reform to only 15% who have switched to Labour

    https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_231130_W.pdf
    That's opinion poll bollocks, not what you said which is voting.

    Voting is an action, which requires an election and is not the same as an opinion poll.

    Opinion polls also said Ed Miliband is Crap but will be Prime Minister. Voting said otherwise. You claimed people are voting Refuk - when and where, or retract that nonsense, because polls aren't voting.
    They didn't actually, the polls were neck and neck in 2015 but with Cameron ahead as preferred PM.

    UKIP did get 12% of the vote in 2015 under Farage's leadership though, largely as the polls predicted
    The polls were not neck and neck in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014, the Tories went a period of years being behind in the polls but polls are not voting.

    In 2019 there were eight opinion polls which showed Farage's Brexit Party polling not just ahead of the Lib Dems, but ahead of both Labour and the Tory Party too for the next election. The next election had rather different voting to that though.

    Where is this mythical voting people are doing that you claimed? Polls are not voting, voting is something that happens at elections, so you should have actual election results to back up such an outlandish and obviously false claim.

    The only votes that are cast, are cast at election, not in opinion polls.

    Or can you not tell the difference between voting and opinion polls?
  • Options

    Hmm, I have my WhatsApp messages from 2012.

    Boris Johnson has been unable to supply the Covid-19 inquiry with any of his Whatsapp messages for almost the entirety of the first lockdown.

    Johnson was advised to stop using his old phone in May 2021 after it emerged that his number had been freely available online for 15 years.

    He was initially unable to hand over Whatsapp messages to the inquiry because he could not remember the passcode. Earlier this year he was able to access the device with the support of experts and it had been assumed the messages were passed on.

    However, Johnson has told the inquiry that even with access to the device, experts were unable to retrieve any of his messages from January 31 to June 7, which covers a critical period from the run-up to the first Covid lockdown to the easing of restrictions. “The technical team has been unable to determine the cause of this,” he has told the inquiry.

    Johnson said that the content of the messages was likely to have been provided by others. A source close to Johnson denied that he had deleted the messages. Rishi Sunak has separately told the inquiry that he no longer has access to Whatsapp messages from his time as chancellor.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-fails-to-give-covid-inquiry-key-whatsapp-messages-hmfz7qkvc

    Remember my uncle telling me, that when he was in US Navy in the Pacific during WW2, if a sailor got sunburned while NOT on duty to extent they were unable to perform their duties, this was in itself a court martial offense.

    That is, get a bad sunburn even inadvertently > go to the brig.

    Am starting to think, as a result of BoJo and other egregious examples such as last mayor of Seattle, that for politicos, "erasing" or otherwise disposing of text messages and the like done in course of official business, ought in itself be a felony or equivalent.

    That is, erase text messages even inadvertently (yeah right) > go to jail.
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    dixiedean said:

    Starmer has one great quality.
    He's an exceptionally lucky politician thus far.

    ... at the moment, though he could easily have been replaced back in 2020 and 2021. Where we'd be then, no-one can say.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,046
    fpt

    viewcode said:
    » show previous quotes
    It's the only one they can still afford to send a reporter to.


    I'm not expert enough to say whether it deserved to win. On the winner Jesse Darling (good name);

    'He has said he was inspired by "the effects of many years of austerity, Brexit, the pandemic" and the "hostile environment" immigration policy.'

    Might his political views have played a part in winning the prize? Not that there is necessarily anything wrong with that. However so much of contemporary art is supposed to be about 'challenging' the viewer isn't it? Which makes me think that the art world seems rather small 'c' conservative. Preferring works that reinforce what the target audience already believes instead of making them think again.

    Jesse was born in Oxford and now lives in Berlin where he is presumably well placed to comment upon life in the UK in 2023
  • Options
    Is it time to think the hitherto unthinkable . . . that Boris Johnson know less Latin than, say, Donald Trump?

    Actually, reckon that DJT likely knows MORE Latin than BoJo. From spending soooo much time in law courts.
  • Options

    Surely it's in Tice's own interest to help the Tories. If they are annihilated then the optics will be that the Great British public has thoroughly rejected right-wing politics, and Reform will be left looking even more irrelevant than they already are.

    Same logic as on the revolutionary left, I suspect.

    The current feeble impersonation of a right wing party has to die, so that a Truly Right Wing Party can grow in its ashes.

    Whether that is sensible logic is another matter.

    Besides, the Conservatives are in a different place to where they spent the 2010s. Then, the votes they could get by courting UKIP et al were the difference between narrow victory and narrow defeat. Now they're the difference between a bad defeat and a worse one.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Farage came back to lead ReformUK based on the boost of his I'm a Celeb profile it is not impossible ReformUK could go even higher to about 15% and overtake the LDs for a clear 3rd place.

    A lot of 2019 Boris voters are now voting Reform and more would do so if Farage led them rather than Tice

    [Citation Needed]

    I've not seen any election where significant numbers have voted for Refuk.

    Where are these mythical elections where millions of 2019 Tory voters have voted for Reform? Because I've not seen any where that's the case.
    Reform are on 10% in the latest Yougov ahead of the LDs on 9%.

    20% of 2019 Conservative voters now back Reform to only 15% who have switched to Labour

    https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_231130_W.pdf
    That's opinion poll bollocks, not what you said which is voting.

    Voting is an action, which requires an election and is not the same as an opinion poll.

    Opinion polls also said Ed Miliband is Crap but will be Prime Minister. Voting said otherwise. You claimed people are voting Refuk - when and where, or retract that nonsense, because polls aren't voting.
    They didn't actually, the polls were neck and neck in 2015 but with Cameron ahead as preferred PM.

    UKIP did get 12% of the vote in 2015 under Farage's leadership though, largely as the polls predicted
    I appreciate that PB Right wingers moisten their gussets at the prospect of the return of Farage, but their are a couple of flaws to your scenario (quite apart from REFUK doing very poorly in real elections).

    1) There is no vacancy at the Top of REFUK, and Tice shows no signs of creating one.

    2) There is no unifying cause (like Brexit) to create bandwagon. Does anyone actually know any of REFUKs policies apart from being beastly to foreigners?

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717

    Is it time to think the hitherto unthinkable . . . that Boris Johnson know less Latin than, say, Donald Trump?

    Actually, reckon that DJT likely knows MORE Latin than BoJo. From spending soooo much time in law courts.

    I'd be far more confident in Boris's ability to comprehend it, however.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636
    edited December 2023

    Surely it's in Tice's own interest to help the Tories. If they are annihilated then the optics will be that the Great British public has thoroughly rejected right-wing politics, and Reform will be left looking even more irrelevant than they already are.

    Not at all. There are several possible ways he can benefit:

    1. If the Tories experience a Canada-style wipeout, RefUK can be a player in the subsequent realignment of the UK Right.

    2. If the Tories experience a 1997-scale defeat, they will just as likely move to the centre as lurch to the right. If the former, RefUK will have the populist right to themselves.

    3. If Labour win but require the support of LDs, Greens or SNP (either for their first term or to gain a second term) the prospect of ditching FPTP becomes a possibility again, which would benefit RefUK.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717

    Surely it's in Tice's own interest to help the Tories. If they are annihilated then the optics will be that the Great British public has thoroughly rejected right-wing politics, and Reform will be left looking even more irrelevant than they already are.

    Same logic as on the revolutionary left, I suspect.

    The current feeble impersonation of a right wing party has to die, so that a Truly Right Wing Party can grow in its ashes.

    Whether that is sensible logic is another matter.
    Yes, the theory assumes all parties loosely affiliated on one side of the spectrum ultimately care about what happens to other parties on that side. In practice that sentiment hasn't even always been true of literal armies, let alone political parties.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578

    glw said:

    Hmm, I have my WhatsApp messages from 2012.

    Boris Johnson has been unable to supply the Covid-19 inquiry with any of his Whatsapp messages for almost the entirety of the first lockdown.

    Johnson was advised to stop using his old phone in May 2021 after it emerged that his number had been freely available online for 15 years.

    He was initially unable to hand over Whatsapp messages to the inquiry because he could not remember the passcode. Earlier this year he was able to access the device with the support of experts and it had been assumed the messages were passed on.

    However, Johnson has told the inquiry that even with access to the device, experts were unable to retrieve any of his messages from January 31 to June 7, which covers a critical period from the run-up to the first Covid lockdown to the easing of restrictions. “The technical team has been unable to determine the cause of this,” he has told the inquiry.

    Johnson said that the content of the messages was likely to have been provided by others. A source close to Johnson denied that he had deleted the messages. Rishi Sunak has separately told the inquiry that he no longer has access to Whatsapp messages from his time as chancellor.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-fails-to-give-covid-inquiry-key-whatsapp-messages-hmfz7qkvc

    Anyone who believes this sort of guff is a mug, it's about as plausible as the many MPs who have claimed to have been hacked whenever they were caught posting something offensive.
    can you show me all your messages on every electronic forum, along with any written diaries or memos you may have made, in professional and personal capacities, over the last four years?

    Cheers. :)
    I probably could if needed. Like most people, I don't delete emails and WhatsApps.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Farage came back to lead ReformUK based on the boost of his I'm a Celeb profile it is not impossible ReformUK could go even higher to about 15% and overtake the LDs for a clear 3rd place.

    A lot of 2019 Boris voters are now voting Reform and more would do so if Farage led them rather than Tice

    [Citation Needed]

    I've not seen any election where significant numbers have voted for Refuk.

    Where are these mythical elections where millions of 2019 Tory voters have voted for Reform? Because I've not seen any where that's the case.
    Reform are on 10% in the latest Yougov ahead of the LDs on 9%.

    20% of 2019 Conservative voters now back Reform to only 15% who have switched to Labour

    https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_231130_W.pdf
    That's opinion poll bollocks, not what you said which is voting.

    Voting is an action, which requires an election and is not the same as an opinion poll.

    Opinion polls also said Ed Miliband is Crap but will be Prime Minister. Voting said otherwise. You claimed people are voting Refuk - when and where, or retract that nonsense, because polls aren't voting.
    They didn't actually, the polls were neck and neck in 2015 but with Cameron ahead as preferred PM.

    UKIP did get 12% of the vote in 2015 under Farage's leadership though, largely as the polls predicted
    I appreciate that PB Right wingers moisten their gussets at the prospect of the return of Farage, but their are a couple of flaws to your scenario (quite apart from REFUK doing very poorly in real elections).

    1) There is no vacancy at the Top of REFUK, and Tice shows no signs of creating one.

    2) There is no unifying cause (like Brexit) to create bandwagon. Does anyone actually know any of REFUKs policies apart from being beastly to foreigners?

    #Keep Brexit Done doesn't have the same appeal as Get Brexit Done. It was essentially attempted for awhile, but not much anymore.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578
    edited December 2023

    Surely it's in Tice's own interest to help the Tories. If they are annihilated then the optics will be that the Great British public has thoroughly rejected right-wing politics, and Reform will be left looking even more irrelevant than they already are.

    Not at all. There are several possible ways he can benefit:

    1. If the Tories experience a Canada-style wipeout, RefUK can be a player in the subsequent realignment of the UK Right.

    2. If the Tories experience a 1997-scale defeat, they will just as likely move to the centre as lurch to the right. If the former, RefUK will have the populist right to themselves.

    3. If Labour win but require the support of LDs, Greens or SNP (either for their first term or to gain a second term) the prospect of ditching FPTP becomes a possibility again, which would benefit RefUK.
    Are REFUK Libertarian? They strike me as quite authoritarian. For all his many faults Sunak is more Libertarian.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    Foxy said:

    glw said:

    Hmm, I have my WhatsApp messages from 2012.

    Boris Johnson has been unable to supply the Covid-19 inquiry with any of his Whatsapp messages for almost the entirety of the first lockdown.

    Johnson was advised to stop using his old phone in May 2021 after it emerged that his number had been freely available online for 15 years.

    He was initially unable to hand over Whatsapp messages to the inquiry because he could not remember the passcode. Earlier this year he was able to access the device with the support of experts and it had been assumed the messages were passed on.

    However, Johnson has told the inquiry that even with access to the device, experts were unable to retrieve any of his messages from January 31 to June 7, which covers a critical period from the run-up to the first Covid lockdown to the easing of restrictions. “The technical team has been unable to determine the cause of this,” he has told the inquiry.

    Johnson said that the content of the messages was likely to have been provided by others. A source close to Johnson denied that he had deleted the messages. Rishi Sunak has separately told the inquiry that he no longer has access to Whatsapp messages from his time as chancellor.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-fails-to-give-covid-inquiry-key-whatsapp-messages-hmfz7qkvc

    Anyone who believes this sort of guff is a mug, it's about as plausible as the many MPs who have claimed to have been hacked whenever they were caught posting something offensive.
    can you show me all your messages on every electronic forum, along with any written diaries or memos you may have made, in professional and personal capacities, over the last four years?

    Cheers. :)
    I probably could if needed. Like most people, I don't delete emails and WhatsApps.
    And I certainly wouldn't if I was in office, even for my personal emails.

    Actually I probably would if I was a politician, but I shouldn't.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    Foxy said:

    Surely it's in Tice's own interest to help the Tories. If they are annihilated then the optics will be that the Great British public has thoroughly rejected right-wing politics, and Reform will be left looking even more irrelevant than they already are.

    Not at all. There are several possible ways he can benefit:

    1. If the Tories experience a Canada-style wipeout, RefUK can be a player in the subsequent realignment of the UK Right.

    2. If the Tories experience a 1997-scale defeat, they will just as likely move to the centre as lurch to the right. If the former, RefUK will have the populist right to themselves.

    3. If Labour win but require the support of LDs, Greens or SNP (either for their first term or to gain a second term) the prospect of ditching FPTP becomes a possibility again, which would benefit RefUK.
    Are REFUK Libertarian? They strike me as quite authoritarian. For all his many faults Sunak is more Libertarian.
    Honestly no clue. But it would not be unheard of for someone to present as libertarian whilst actually just being authoritarian toward different groups and people.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,911
    glw said:

    Hmm, I have my WhatsApp messages from 2012.

    Boris Johnson has been unable to supply the Covid-19 inquiry with any of his Whatsapp messages for almost the entirety of the first lockdown.

    Johnson was advised to stop using his old phone in May 2021 after it emerged that his number had been freely available online for 15 years.

    He was initially unable to hand over Whatsapp messages to the inquiry because he could not remember the passcode. Earlier this year he was able to access the device with the support of experts and it had been assumed the messages were passed on.

    However, Johnson has told the inquiry that even with access to the device, experts were unable to retrieve any of his messages from January 31 to June 7, which covers a critical period from the run-up to the first Covid lockdown to the easing of restrictions. “The technical team has been unable to determine the cause of this,” he has told the inquiry.

    Johnson said that the content of the messages was likely to have been provided by others. A source close to Johnson denied that he had deleted the messages. Rishi Sunak has separately told the inquiry that he no longer has access to Whatsapp messages from his time as chancellor.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-fails-to-give-covid-inquiry-key-whatsapp-messages-hmfz7qkvc

    Anyone who believes this sort of guff is a mug, it's about as plausible as the many MPs who have claimed to have been hacked whenever they were caught posting something offensive.
    WhatsApp messages can definitely disappear, I have a big gap in my messages from just before my first son was born in 2019, messages I wish I still had. Also none from pre 2017. Not that the politicians involved might not have just got rid of incriminating messages, but it seems easily done; I didn’t want to lose any of mine

  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,911
    edited December 2023
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Farage came back to lead ReformUK based on the boost of his I'm a Celeb profile it is not impossible ReformUK could go even higher to about 15% and overtake the LDs for a clear 3rd place.

    A lot of 2019 Boris voters are now voting Reform and more would do so if Farage led them rather than Tice

    [Citation Needed]

    I've not seen any election where significant numbers have voted for Refuk.

    Where are these mythical elections where millions of 2019 Tory voters have voted for Reform? Because I've not seen any where that's the case.
    Reform are on 10% in the latest Yougov ahead of the LDs on 9%.

    20% of 2019 Conservative voters now back Reform to only 15% who have switched to Labour

    https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_231130_W.pdf
    That's opinion poll bollocks, not what you said which is voting.

    Voting is an action, which requires an election and is not the same as an opinion poll.

    Opinion polls also said Ed Miliband is Crap but will be Prime Minister. Voting said otherwise. You claimed people are voting Refuk - when and where, or retract that nonsense, because polls aren't voting.
    They didn't actually, the polls were neck and neck in 2015 but with Cameron ahead as preferred PM.

    UKIP did get 12% of the vote in 2015 under Farage's leadership though, largely as the polls predicted
    I appreciate that PB Right wingers moisten their gussets at the prospect of the return of Farage, but their are a couple of flaws to your scenario (quite apart from REFUK doing very poorly in real elections).

    1) There is no vacancy at the Top of REFUK, and Tice shows no signs of creating one.

    2) There is no unifying cause (like Brexit) to create bandwagon. Does anyone actually know any of REFUKs policies apart from being beastly to foreigners?

    Well the answer to point one is surely that Farage owns the company that is REFUK

    Point two is better but, as Sir Keir shows, it doesn’t really matter what your policies are if your opponent is committing suicide
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,046

    Nigel Farage = Sir Keir Starmer enabler.

    There was a great picture going around of Starmer and Thatcher embracing. It rather backfired as he looked like a proper matinee idol. Perhaps CCHQ could try doing one of Farage and Starmer instead?

    Might Rishi start sending out feelers to Owen Jones?*

    *tbh I think Owen has already made up his mind.
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    Is it time to think the hitherto unthinkable . . . that Boris Johnson know less Latin than, say, Donald Trump?

    Actually, reckon that DJT likely knows MORE Latin than BoJo. From spending soooo much time in law courts.

    I'd be far more confident in Boris's ability to comprehend it, however.
    On what basis???
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    isam said:

    glw said:

    Hmm, I have my WhatsApp messages from 2012.

    Boris Johnson has been unable to supply the Covid-19 inquiry with any of his Whatsapp messages for almost the entirety of the first lockdown.

    Johnson was advised to stop using his old phone in May 2021 after it emerged that his number had been freely available online for 15 years.

    He was initially unable to hand over Whatsapp messages to the inquiry because he could not remember the passcode. Earlier this year he was able to access the device with the support of experts and it had been assumed the messages were passed on.

    However, Johnson has told the inquiry that even with access to the device, experts were unable to retrieve any of his messages from January 31 to June 7, which covers a critical period from the run-up to the first Covid lockdown to the easing of restrictions. “The technical team has been unable to determine the cause of this,” he has told the inquiry.

    Johnson said that the content of the messages was likely to have been provided by others. A source close to Johnson denied that he had deleted the messages. Rishi Sunak has separately told the inquiry that he no longer has access to Whatsapp messages from his time as chancellor.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-fails-to-give-covid-inquiry-key-whatsapp-messages-hmfz7qkvc

    Anyone who believes this sort of guff is a mug, it's about as plausible as the many MPs who have claimed to have been hacked whenever they were caught posting something offensive.
    WhatsApp messages can definitely disappear, I have a big gap in my messages from just before my first son was born in 2019, messages I wish I still had. Also none from pre 2017. Not that the politicians involved might not have just got rid of incriminating messages, but it seems easily done; I didn’t want to lose any of mine

    It is slightly more plausible than some other forms of disappearing messages might be. Though for me politicians being unaware of how to ensure they retain things as they probably should ranks up there with agents being just so confused by election spending rules or the like - it can happen, but most of the time I suspect they know well enough.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717

    kle4 said:

    Is it time to think the hitherto unthinkable . . . that Boris Johnson know less Latin than, say, Donald Trump?

    Actually, reckon that DJT likely knows MORE Latin than BoJo. From spending soooo much time in law courts.

    I'd be far more confident in Boris's ability to comprehend it, however.
    On what basis???
    Boris can string a sentence together in English for a start, which often seems beyond Trump (entertainingly bonkers though it can be).
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554
    There was a very useful TwiX thread yesterday (but unfortunately I can’t now find it). Particularly useful for betting purposes. It compared Reform polling in the current parliament with by-election votes, and then did the same comparison for UKIP during the 2010-15 parliament.

    The contrast is striking. UKIP were scoring 12-13% in polls, but regularly hitting the 20s in Westminster byelections, and were winning lots of councillors.

    Ref are on 9-11% in polls, not far behind 2010-15 UKIP, but they have only twice breached 5% in a Westminster by-election (in very Brexity Bexley and Sidcup, and Tamworth), generally getting 2-3%.

    Conclusion: the polls are massively overstating Ref support (and I suspect green too).
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Farage came back to lead ReformUK based on the boost of his I'm a Celeb profile it is not impossible ReformUK could go even higher to about 15% and overtake the LDs for a clear 3rd place.

    A lot of 2019 Boris voters are now voting Reform and more would do so if Farage led them rather than Tice

    [Citation Needed]

    I've not seen any election where significant numbers have voted for Refuk.

    Where are these mythical elections where millions of 2019 Tory voters have voted for Reform? Because I've not seen any where that's the case.
    Reform are on 10% in the latest Yougov ahead of the LDs on 9%.

    20% of 2019 Conservative voters now back Reform to only 15% who have switched to Labour

    https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_231130_W.pdf
    That's opinion poll bollocks, not what you said which is voting.

    Voting is an action, which requires an election and is not the same as an opinion poll.

    Opinion polls also said Ed Miliband is Crap but will be Prime Minister. Voting said otherwise. You claimed people are voting Refuk - when and where, or retract that nonsense, because polls aren't voting.
    They didn't actually, the polls were neck and neck in 2015 but with Cameron ahead as preferred PM.

    UKIP did get 12% of the vote in 2015 under Farage's leadership though, largely as the polls predicted
    I appreciate that PB Right wingers moisten their gussets at the prospect of the return of Farage, but their are a couple of flaws to your scenario (quite apart from REFUK doing very poorly in real elections).

    1) There is no vacancy at the Top of REFUK, and Tice shows no signs of creating one.

    2) There is no unifying cause (like Brexit) to create bandwagon. Does anyone actually know any of REFUKs policies apart from being beastly to foreigners?

    2): It's a populist mishmash, if 2019 is anything to go by:

    No extension to the Brexit transition period
    No privatisation of the NHS
    Reducing immigration
    Cutting VAT on domestic fuel
    Banning the UK exporting its waste
    Providing free broadband in deprived regions
    Scrapping the television licence fee
    Abolishing inheritance tax
    Scrapping High Speed 2 (HS2)
    Abolishing interest on student loans
    Changing planning to help house building
    Reforming the Supreme Court
    Reform the voting system to make it more representative
    Abolish the House of Lords
    Making MPs who switch parties subject to recall petitions
    Reform the postal voting system to combat fraud
    Introduce Citizens’ Initiatives to allow people to call referendums

    (This last point is an interesting one as their proposed threshold is 5m registered voters. Since the 2019 'Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU' petition had 6.1m signatures, it seems quite possible that a carefully worded Citizens' Initiative calling for, say, the UK to join the Single Market, would gain enough signatures to call a referendum. I can hear Brenda from Bristol right now.)

  • Options
    BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,430
    After a huge amount of criticism from Israeli media, the BBC giving headline treatment to the 7th Oct atrocities.

    And they really are atrocities. This is quite different from "normal" warfare or even terrorism.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67629181

    She was alive," the witness says. "She was bleeding from her back."

    She goes on to detail how the men cut off parts of the victim's body during the assault.

    "They sliced her breast and threw it on the street," she says. "They were playing with it."

    The victim was passed to another man in uniform, she continues.

    "He penetrated her, and shot her in the head before he finished. He didn't even pick up his pants; he shoots and ejaculates."

    AND, from the same report:

    Another, Nachman Dyksztejna, provided written testimony of seeing the bodies of two women in kibbutz Be'eri with their hands and legs tied to a bed.

    "One was sexually terrorised with a knife stuck in her vagina and all her internal organs removed," his statement says.

    -----------------

    This is what Israelis are reading about. This is what they are learning was the fate of their young people. People they knew, and could well have been related to.

    It's really impossible to see how there can be any meaningful ceasefire or cessation until the IDF has levelled Gaza. Israeli public opinion simply won't allow it.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,800

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Farage came back to lead ReformUK based on the boost of his I'm a Celeb profile it is not impossible ReformUK could go even higher to about 15% and overtake the LDs for a clear 3rd place.

    A lot of 2019 Boris voters are now voting Reform and more would do so if Farage led them rather than Tice

    [Citation Needed]

    I've not seen any election where significant numbers have voted for Refuk.

    Where are these mythical elections where millions of 2019 Tory voters have voted for Reform? Because I've not seen any where that's the case.
    Reform are on 10% in the latest Yougov ahead of the LDs on 9%.

    20% of 2019 Conservative voters now back Reform to only 15% who have switched to Labour

    https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_231130_W.pdf
    That's opinion poll bollocks, not what you said which is voting.

    Voting is an action, which requires an election and is not the same as an opinion poll.

    Opinion polls also said Ed Miliband is Crap but will be Prime Minister. Voting said otherwise. You claimed people are voting Refuk - when and where, or retract that nonsense, because polls aren't voting.
    They didn't actually, the polls were neck and neck in 2015 but with Cameron ahead as preferred PM.

    UKIP did get 12% of the vote in 2015 under Farage's leadership though, largely as the polls predicted
    The polls were not neck and neck in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014, the Tories went a period of years being behind in the polls but polls are not voting.

    In 2019 there were eight opinion polls which showed Farage's Brexit Party polling not just ahead of the Lib Dems, but ahead of both Labour and the Tory Party too for the next election. The next election had rather different voting to that though.

    Where is this mythical voting people are doing that you claimed? Polls are not voting, voting is something that happens at elections, so you should have actual election results to back up such an outlandish and obviously false claim.

    The only votes that are cast, are cast at election, not in opinion polls.

    Or can you not tell the difference between voting and opinion polls?
    Unlike Reform, UKIP were winning a lot of council seats and doing well in by-elections.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636
    Foxy said:

    Surely it's in Tice's own interest to help the Tories. If they are annihilated then the optics will be that the Great British public has thoroughly rejected right-wing politics, and Reform will be left looking even more irrelevant than they already are.

    Not at all. There are several possible ways he can benefit:

    1. If the Tories experience a Canada-style wipeout, RefUK can be a player in the subsequent realignment of the UK Right.

    2. If the Tories experience a 1997-scale defeat, they will just as likely move to the centre as lurch to the right. If the former, RefUK will have the populist right to themselves.

    3. If Labour win but require the support of LDs, Greens or SNP (either for their first term or to gain a second term) the prospect of ditching FPTP becomes a possibility again, which would benefit RefUK.
    Are REFUK Libertarian? They strike me as quite authoritarian. For all his many faults Sunak is more Libertarian.
    Yeah - I changed it to 'populist right'.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717

    After a huge amount of criticism from Israeli media, the BBC giving headline treatment to the 7th Oct atrocities.

    And they really are atrocities. This is quite different from "normal" warfare or even terrorism.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67629181

    She was alive," the witness says. "She was bleeding from her back."

    She goes on to detail how the men cut off parts of the victim's body during the assault.

    "They sliced her breast and threw it on the street," she says. "They were playing with it."

    The victim was passed to another man in uniform, she continues.

    "He penetrated her, and shot her in the head before he finished. He didn't even pick up his pants; he shoots and ejaculates."

    AND, from the same report:

    Another, Nachman Dyksztejna, provided written testimony of seeing the bodies of two women in kibbutz Be'eri with their hands and legs tied to a bed.

    "One was sexually terrorised with a knife stuck in her vagina and all her internal organs removed," his statement says.

    -----------------

    This is what Israelis are reading about. This is what they are learning was the fate of their young people. People they knew, and could well have been related to.

    It's really impossible to see how there can be any meaningful ceasefire or cessation until the IDF has levelled Gaza. Israeli public opinion simply won't allow it.

    One point often raised is that this will be raising a whole new generation of Hamas supporters, and that that may even have been part of Hamas' plan.

    I suspect, though, that even if that is true that the Israelis would consider waiting for the next generation of Hamas fighters to emerge to be preferable to leaving any they can get their hands on now untouched.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Farage came back to lead ReformUK based on the boost of his I'm a Celeb profile it is not impossible ReformUK could go even higher to about 15% and overtake the LDs for a clear 3rd place.

    A lot of 2019 Boris voters are now voting Reform and more would do so if Farage led them rather than Tice

    [Citation Needed]

    I've not seen any election where significant numbers have voted for Refuk.

    Where are these mythical elections where millions of 2019 Tory voters have voted for Reform? Because I've not seen any where that's the case.
    Reform are on 10% in the latest Yougov ahead of the LDs on 9%.

    20% of 2019 Conservative voters now back Reform to only 15% who have switched to Labour

    https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_231130_W.pdf
    That's opinion poll bollocks, not what you said which is voting.

    Voting is an action, which requires an election and is not the same as an opinion poll.

    Opinion polls also said Ed Miliband is Crap but will be Prime Minister. Voting said otherwise. You claimed people are voting Refuk - when and where, or retract that nonsense, because polls aren't voting.
    They didn't actually, the polls were neck and neck in 2015 but with Cameron ahead as preferred PM.

    UKIP did get 12% of the vote in 2015 under Farage's leadership though, largely as the polls predicted
    I appreciate that PB Right wingers moisten their gussets at the prospect of the return of Farage, but their are a couple of flaws to your scenario (quite apart from REFUK doing very poorly in real elections).

    1) There is no vacancy at the Top of REFUK, and Tice shows no signs of creating one.

    2) There is no unifying cause (like Brexit) to create bandwagon. Does anyone actually know any of REFUKs policies apart from being beastly to foreigners?

    2): It's a populist mishmash, if 2019 is anything to go by:

    No extension to the Brexit transition period
    No privatisation of the NHS
    Reducing immigration
    Cutting VAT on domestic fuel
    Banning the UK exporting its waste
    Providing free broadband in deprived regions
    Scrapping the television licence fee
    Abolishing inheritance tax
    Scrapping High Speed 2 (HS2)
    Abolishing interest on student loans
    Changing planning to help house building
    Reforming the Supreme Court
    Reform the voting system to make it more representative
    Abolish the House of Lords
    Making MPs who switch parties subject to recall petitions
    Reform the postal voting system to combat fraud
    Introduce Citizens’ Initiatives to allow people to call referendums

    (This last point is an interesting one as their proposed threshold is 5m registered voters. Since the 2019 'Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU' petition had 6.1m signatures, it seems quite possible that a carefully worded Citizens' Initiative calling for, say, the UK to join the Single Market, would gain enough signatures to call a referendum. I can hear Brenda from Bristol right now.)

    They seem to have changed their tune on the NHS.

    https://www.reformparty.uk/

    The plan is to have Zero Waiting lists within 24 months by giving people the right to have a GP appointment with 3 days, a Consultant appointment in 3 weeks and a operation with in 9 weeks. If not provided they get a voucher to go Private.

    That reads like a major cost pressure on a REFUK NHS budget.

  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,141
    It took the BBC nearly a month to realise the Hamas atrocities?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636
    edited December 2023
    Fishing said:

    dixiedean said:

    Starmer has one great quality.
    He's an exceptionally lucky politician thus far.

    ... at the moment, though he could easily have been replaced back in 2020 and 2021. Where we'd be then, no-one can say.
    Was Starmer ever under threat in 2020/21? If so it passed me by.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Farage came back to lead ReformUK based on the boost of his I'm a Celeb profile it is not impossible ReformUK could go even higher to about 15% and overtake the LDs for a clear 3rd place.

    A lot of 2019 Boris voters are now voting Reform and more would do so if Farage led them rather than Tice

    [Citation Needed]

    I've not seen any election where significant numbers have voted for Refuk.

    Where are these mythical elections where millions of 2019 Tory voters have voted for Reform? Because I've not seen any where that's the case.
    Reform are on 10% in the latest Yougov ahead of the LDs on 9%.

    20% of 2019 Conservative voters now back Reform to only 15% who have switched to Labour

    https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_231130_W.pdf
    That's opinion poll bollocks, not what you said which is voting.

    Voting is an action, which requires an election and is not the same as an opinion poll.

    Opinion polls also said Ed Miliband is Crap but will be Prime Minister. Voting said otherwise. You claimed people are voting Refuk - when and where, or retract that nonsense, because polls aren't voting.
    They didn't actually, the polls were neck and neck in 2015 but with Cameron ahead as preferred PM.

    UKIP did get 12% of the vote in 2015 under Farage's leadership though, largely as the polls predicted
    The polls were not neck and neck in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014, the Tories went a period of years being behind in the polls but polls are not voting.

    In 2019 there were eight opinion polls which showed Farage's Brexit Party polling not just ahead of the Lib Dems, but ahead of both Labour and the Tory Party too for the next election. The next election had rather different voting to that though.

    Where is this mythical voting people are doing that you claimed? Polls are not voting, voting is something that happens at elections, so you should have actual election results to back up such an outlandish and obviously false claim.

    The only votes that are cast, are cast at election, not in opinion polls.

    Or can you not tell the difference between voting and opinion polls?
    Unlike Reform, UKIP were winning a lot of council seats and doing well in by-elections.
    Indeed, which is why I am somewhat sceptical that Reform UK will break the mold.

    Sure, some of that 10% will come out to vote for them. But as a smaller party, it's very hard to get over the whole "wasted vote" issue. The LibDems - and to a lesser extent the Greens - have done this by establishing themselves at the local level, getting Councillors elected, and banging on about "Winning Here".

    Reform needs to get people to go out and vote for a party that will not win their local seat. "Vote for us now so we can establish a base for next time" is a difficult message to sell.

    And without something "big" like EU exit, I think they'll struggle.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,141
    Could Boris join ReformUK?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    geoffw said:

    Could Boris join ReformUK?

    Nah, he's establishment to his bones.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Farage came back to lead ReformUK based on the boost of his I'm a Celeb profile it is not impossible ReformUK could go even higher to about 15% and overtake the LDs for a clear 3rd place.

    A lot of 2019 Boris voters are now voting Reform and more would do so if Farage led them rather than Tice

    [Citation Needed]

    I've not seen any election where significant numbers have voted for Refuk.

    Where are these mythical elections where millions of 2019 Tory voters have voted for Reform? Because I've not seen any where that's the case.
    Reform are on 10% in the latest Yougov ahead of the LDs on 9%.

    20% of 2019 Conservative voters now back Reform to only 15% who have switched to Labour

    https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_231130_W.pdf
    That's opinion poll bollocks, not what you said which is voting.

    Voting is an action, which requires an election and is not the same as an opinion poll.

    Opinion polls also said Ed Miliband is Crap but will be Prime Minister. Voting said otherwise. You claimed people are voting Refuk - when and where, or retract that nonsense, because polls aren't voting.
    They didn't actually, the polls were neck and neck in 2015 but with Cameron ahead as preferred PM.

    UKIP did get 12% of the vote in 2015 under Farage's leadership though, largely as the polls predicted
    The polls were not neck and neck in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014, the Tories went a period of years being behind in the polls but polls are not voting.

    In 2019 there were eight opinion polls which showed Farage's Brexit Party polling not just ahead of the Lib Dems, but ahead of both Labour and the Tory Party too for the next election. The next election had rather different voting to that though.

    Where is this mythical voting people are doing that you claimed? Polls are not voting, voting is something that happens at elections, so you should have actual election results to back up such an outlandish and obviously false claim.

    The only votes that are cast, are cast at election, not in opinion polls.

    Or can you not tell the difference between voting and opinion polls?
    Unlike Reform, UKIP were winning a lot of council seats and doing well in by-elections.
    Indeed, which is why I am somewhat sceptical that Reform UK will break the mold.

    Sure, some of that 10% will come out to vote for them. But as a smaller party, it's very hard to get over the whole "wasted vote" issue. The LibDems - and to a lesser extent the Greens - have done this by establishing themselves at the local level, getting Councillors elected, and banging on about "Winning Here".

    Reform needs to get people to go out and vote for a party that will not win their local seat. "Vote for us now so we can establish a base for next time" is a difficult message to sell.

    And without something "big" like EU exit, I think they'll struggle.
    As I pointed out in my header on 27th November REFUK voters claim that they will vote REFUK even when their party has zero chance of winning the seat.



    It may be bollocks of course, but that is what they say.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,046

    After a huge amount of criticism from Israeli media, the BBC giving headline treatment to the 7th Oct atrocities.

    And they really are atrocities. This is quite different from "normal" warfare or even terrorism.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67629181

    She was alive," the witness says. "She was bleeding from her back."

    She goes on to detail how the men cut off parts of the victim's body during the assault.

    "They sliced her breast and threw it on the street," she says. "They were playing with it."

    The victim was passed to another man in uniform, she continues.

    "He penetrated her, and shot her in the head before he finished. He didn't even pick up his pants; he shoots and ejaculates."

    AND, from the same report:

    Another, Nachman Dyksztejna, provided written testimony of seeing the bodies of two women in kibbutz Be'eri with their hands and legs tied to a bed.

    "One was sexually terrorised with a knife stuck in her vagina and all her internal organs removed," his statement says.

    -----------------

    This is what Israelis are reading about. This is what they are learning was the fate of their young people. People they knew, and could well have been related to.

    It's really impossible to see how there can be any meaningful ceasefire or cessation until the IDF has levelled Gaza. Israeli public opinion simply won't allow it.

    I wouldn't push for a ceasefire but I think it reasonable to question HOW Israel is going about the offensive. Michael Clarke, who I'd consider about the best military analyst out there, was pretty down on the IDF operation.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,014
    kle4 said:

    geoffw said:

    Could Boris join ReformUK?

    Nah, he's establishment to his bones.
    And he fuks and moves on, he doesn’t refuk
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    US politics is very different to UK politics example #3698.

    Hours after former Acting Speaker Patrick McHenry announced he will not run again, Republican Pat Harrigan releases a video declaring his candidacy: “God has placed a calling on our lives to enter the political arena.”
    https://nitter.net/RonFilipkowski/status/1732151465597161641#m
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578

    Fishing said:

    dixiedean said:

    Starmer has one great quality.
    He's an exceptionally lucky politician thus far.

    ... at the moment, though he could easily have been replaced back in 2020 and 2021. Where we'd be then, no-one can say.
    Was Starmer ever under threat in 2020/21? If so it passed me by.
    He threatened to resign if charged over beer gate.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,014
    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    dixiedean said:

    Starmer has one great quality.
    He's an exceptionally lucky politician thus far.

    ... at the moment, though he could easily have been replaced back in 2020 and 2021. Where we'd be then, no-one can say.
    Was Starmer ever under threat in 2020/21? If so it passed me by.
    He threatened to resign if charged over beer gate.
    So upping the ante for the police
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,911
    edited December 2023
    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    dixiedean said:

    Starmer has one great quality.
    He's an exceptionally lucky politician thus far.

    ... at the moment, though he could easily have been replaced back in 2020 and 2021. Where we'd be then, no-one can say.
    Was Starmer ever under threat in 2020/21? If so it passed me by.
    He threatened to resign if charged over beer gate.
    If they hadn’t won that by election where the candidate was Jo Cox’s sister he was in trouble
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636

    After a huge amount of criticism from Israeli media, the BBC giving headline treatment to the 7th Oct atrocities.

    And they really are atrocities. This is quite different from "normal" warfare or even terrorism.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67629181

    She was alive," the witness says. "She was bleeding from her back."

    She goes on to detail how the men cut off parts of the victim's body during the assault.

    "They sliced her breast and threw it on the street," she says. "They were playing with it."

    The victim was passed to another man in uniform, she continues.

    "He penetrated her, and shot her in the head before he finished. He didn't even pick up his pants; he shoots and ejaculates."

    AND, from the same report:

    Another, Nachman Dyksztejna, provided written testimony of seeing the bodies of two women in kibbutz Be'eri with their hands and legs tied to a bed.

    "One was sexually terrorised with a knife stuck in her vagina and all her internal organs removed," his statement says.

    -----------------

    This is what Israelis are reading about. This is what they are learning was the fate of their young people. People they knew, and could well have been related to.

    It's really impossible to see how there can be any meaningful ceasefire or cessation until the IDF has levelled Gaza. Israeli public opinion simply won't allow it.

    What possesses people to commit such acts? I find it utterly beyond comprehension.

    Are they drugged up? Are they orders of magnitude more evil than any person I have ever met (even the genuinely nasty people I've met)?

    It's often said that anyone is capable of murder, and I believe that in the right (or rather wrong) circumstances, that is true. But this is a level of depravity that I cannot comprehend.

    (On reflection, it's not totally unprecedented - similar examples exist from WW2 and before, and no doubt more recent conflicts too. Baffling to me though.)
  • Options

    Fishing said:

    dixiedean said:

    Starmer has one great quality.
    He's an exceptionally lucky politician thus far.

    ... at the moment, though he could easily have been replaced back in 2020 and 2021. Where we'd be then, no-one can say.
    Was Starmer ever under threat in 2020/21? If so it passed me by.
    After Hartlepool, before Batley? Had the latter gone differently, he would have been in a very shaky position. Then there was the reshuffle where Rayner ended up with even more job titles. When was that?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578
    kle4 said:

    US politics is very different to UK politics example #3698.

    Hours after former Acting Speaker Patrick McHenry announced he will not run again, Republican Pat Harrigan releases a video declaring his candidacy: “God has placed a calling on our lives to enter the political arena.”
    https://nitter.net/RonFilipkowski/status/1732151465597161641#m

    Or even more eyebrow raising:

    "It is of course a very bad idea to base foreign policy around the Rapture."

    We need to deal with the death cult at the heart of top level American politics. I've been saying this for at least a decade."

    https://twitter.com/chiller/status/1731796056373965216?t=01P5bF4hnUzBdHckIRxoJg&s=19
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952
    GB women's football out of the Olympics. Hugely dramatic exit.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    dixiedean said:

    Starmer has one great quality.
    He's an exceptionally lucky politician thus far.

    ... at the moment, though he could easily have been replaced back in 2020 and 2021. Where we'd be then, no-one can say.
    Was Starmer ever under threat in 2020/21? If so it passed me by.
    He threatened to resign if charged over beer gate.
    If they hadn’t won that by election where the candidate was Jo Cox’s sister he was in trouble
    Less than 400 votes in it
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Batley_and_Spen_by-election

    Maybe after the Corbyn years it'd take more than losing that to oust the Leader, not easy in Labour after all, but it feels like it would have been very significant.
  • Options
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Farage came back to lead ReformUK based on the boost of his I'm a Celeb profile it is not impossible ReformUK could go even higher to about 15% and overtake the LDs for a clear 3rd place.

    A lot of 2019 Boris voters are now voting Reform and more would do so if Farage led them rather than Tice

    [Citation Needed]

    I've not seen any election where significant numbers have voted for Refuk.

    Where are these mythical elections where millions of 2019 Tory voters have voted for Reform? Because I've not seen any where that's the case.
    Reform are on 10% in the latest Yougov ahead of the LDs on 9%.

    20% of 2019 Conservative voters now back Reform to only 15% who have switched to Labour

    https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_231130_W.pdf
    That's opinion poll bollocks, not what you said which is voting.

    Voting is an action, which requires an election and is not the same as an opinion poll.

    Opinion polls also said Ed Miliband is Crap but will be Prime Minister. Voting said otherwise. You claimed people are voting Refuk - when and where, or retract that nonsense, because polls aren't voting.
    They didn't actually, the polls were neck and neck in 2015 but with Cameron ahead as preferred PM.

    UKIP did get 12% of the vote in 2015 under Farage's leadership though, largely as the polls predicted
    I appreciate that PB Right wingers moisten their gussets at the prospect of the return of Farage, but their are a couple of flaws to your scenario (quite apart from REFUK doing very poorly in real elections).

    1) There is no vacancy at the Top of REFUK, and Tice shows no signs of creating one.

    2) There is no unifying cause (like Brexit) to create bandwagon. Does anyone actually know any of REFUKs policies apart from being beastly to foreigners?

    2): It's a populist mishmash, if 2019 is anything to go by:

    No extension to the Brexit transition period
    No privatisation of the NHS
    Reducing immigration
    Cutting VAT on domestic fuel
    Banning the UK exporting its waste
    Providing free broadband in deprived regions
    Scrapping the television licence fee
    Abolishing inheritance tax
    Scrapping High Speed 2 (HS2)
    Abolishing interest on student loans
    Changing planning to help house building
    Reforming the Supreme Court
    Reform the voting system to make it more representative
    Abolish the House of Lords
    Making MPs who switch parties subject to recall petitions
    Reform the postal voting system to combat fraud
    Introduce Citizens’ Initiatives to allow people to call referendums

    (This last point is an interesting one as their proposed threshold is 5m registered voters. Since the 2019 'Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU' petition had 6.1m signatures, it seems quite possible that a carefully worded Citizens' Initiative calling for, say, the UK to join the Single Market, would gain enough signatures to call a referendum. I can hear Brenda from Bristol right now.)

    They seem to have changed their tune on the NHS.

    https://www.reformparty.uk/

    The plan is to have Zero Waiting lists within 24 months by giving people the right to have a GP appointment with 3 days, a Consultant appointment in 3 weeks and a operation with in 9 weeks. If not provided they get a voucher to go Private.

    That reads like a major cost pressure on a REFUK NHS budget.

    Is that even possible if you also plan to squeeze immigration?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    dixiedean said:

    Starmer has one great quality.
    He's an exceptionally lucky politician thus far.

    ... at the moment, though he could easily have been replaced back in 2020 and 2021. Where we'd be then, no-one can say.
    Was Starmer ever under threat in 2020/21? If so it passed me by.
    He threatened to resign if charged over beer gate.
    If they hadn’t won that by election where the candidate was Jo Cox’s sister he was in trouble
    Though unlike the Tories it is very hard to defenestrate a Labour leader. There isn't a mechanism to do so that is comparable to the 1922 committee. This was demonstrated under Corbyn.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636
    edited December 2023
    Tonight's caption competition.

    image
    "This Sunak voodoo doll is so small - it's really hard to get the pins in."
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,911
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    dixiedean said:

    Starmer has one great quality.
    He's an exceptionally lucky politician thus far.

    ... at the moment, though he could easily have been replaced back in 2020 and 2021. Where we'd be then, no-one can say.
    Was Starmer ever under threat in 2020/21? If so it passed me by.
    He threatened to resign if charged over beer gate.
    If they hadn’t won that by election where the candidate was Jo Cox’s sister he was in trouble
    Though unlike the Tories it is very hard to defenestrate a Labour leader. There isn't a mechanism to do so that is comparable to the 1922 committee. This was demonstrated under Corbyn.
    Yes, I think I found a decent bet around that time, 8/15 that he’s still leader in 2022 or something like that. Didn’t have it myself but mentioned it in here
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Farage came back to lead ReformUK based on the boost of his I'm a Celeb profile it is not impossible ReformUK could go even higher to about 15% and overtake the LDs for a clear 3rd place.

    A lot of 2019 Boris voters are now voting Reform and more would do so if Farage led them rather than Tice

    [Citation Needed]

    I've not seen any election where significant numbers have voted for Refuk.

    Where are these mythical elections where millions of 2019 Tory voters have voted for Reform? Because I've not seen any where that's the case.
    Reform are on 10% in the latest Yougov ahead of the LDs on 9%.

    20% of 2019 Conservative voters now back Reform to only 15% who have switched to Labour

    https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_231130_W.pdf
    That's opinion poll bollocks, not what you said which is voting.

    Voting is an action, which requires an election and is not the same as an opinion poll.

    Opinion polls also said Ed Miliband is Crap but will be Prime Minister. Voting said otherwise. You claimed people are voting Refuk - when and where, or retract that nonsense, because polls aren't voting.
    They didn't actually, the polls were neck and neck in 2015 but with Cameron ahead as preferred PM.

    UKIP did get 12% of the vote in 2015 under Farage's leadership though, largely as the polls predicted
    I appreciate that PB Right wingers moisten their gussets at the prospect of the return of Farage, but their are a couple of flaws to your scenario (quite apart from REFUK doing very poorly in real elections).

    1) There is no vacancy at the Top of REFUK, and Tice shows no signs of creating one.

    2) There is no unifying cause (like Brexit) to create bandwagon. Does anyone actually know any of REFUKs policies apart from being beastly to foreigners?

    2): It's a populist mishmash, if 2019 is anything to go by:

    No extension to the Brexit transition period
    No privatisation of the NHS
    Reducing immigration
    Cutting VAT on domestic fuel
    Banning the UK exporting its waste
    Providing free broadband in deprived regions
    Scrapping the television licence fee
    Abolishing inheritance tax
    Scrapping High Speed 2 (HS2)
    Abolishing interest on student loans
    Changing planning to help house building
    Reforming the Supreme Court
    Reform the voting system to make it more representative
    Abolish the House of Lords
    Making MPs who switch parties subject to recall petitions
    Reform the postal voting system to combat fraud
    Introduce Citizens’ Initiatives to allow people to call referendums

    (This last point is an interesting one as their proposed threshold is 5m registered voters. Since the 2019 'Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU' petition had 6.1m signatures, it seems quite possible that a carefully worded Citizens' Initiative calling for, say, the UK to join the Single Market, would gain enough signatures to call a referendum. I can hear Brenda from Bristol right now.)

    They seem to have changed their tune on the NHS.

    https://www.reformparty.uk/

    The plan is to have Zero Waiting lists within 24 months by giving people the right to have a GP appointment with 3 days, a Consultant appointment in 3 weeks and a operation with in 9 weeks. If not provided they get a voucher to go Private.

    That reads like a major cost pressure on a REFUK NHS budget.

    Is that even possible if you also plan to squeeze immigration?
    One of several teensy-tiny flaws in their plan for government.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578

    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    dixiedean said:

    Starmer has one great quality.
    He's an exceptionally lucky politician thus far.

    ... at the moment, though he could easily have been replaced back in 2020 and 2021. Where we'd be then, no-one can say.
    Was Starmer ever under threat in 2020/21? If so it passed me by.
    He threatened to resign if charged over beer gate.
    That's the threat of a man who knows he's not going to have to deliver on it.
    A classic barristers trick!
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,046
    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    dixiedean said:

    Starmer has one great quality.
    He's an exceptionally lucky politician thus far.

    ... at the moment, though he could easily have been replaced back in 2020 and 2021. Where we'd be then, no-one can say.
    Was Starmer ever under threat in 2020/21? If so it passed me by.
    He threatened to resign if charged over beer gate.
    If they hadn’t won that by election where the candidate was Jo Cox’s sister he was in trouble
    Less than 400 votes in it
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Batley_and_Spen_by-election

    Maybe after the Corbyn years it'd take more than losing that to oust the Leader, not easy in Labour after all, but it feels like it would have been very significant.
    Blair lost Bethnal Green and Bow (yes I know he won the GE but it shows that constituencies with large numbers of Muslim voters are unpredictable).
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    isamisam Posts: 40,911
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    dixiedean said:

    Starmer has one great quality.
    He's an exceptionally lucky politician thus far.

    ... at the moment, though he could easily have been replaced back in 2020 and 2021. Where we'd be then, no-one can say.
    Was Starmer ever under threat in 2020/21? If so it passed me by.
    He threatened to resign if charged over beer gate.
    That's the threat of a man who knows he's not going to have to deliver on it.
    A classic barristers trick!
    How on earth did he get away with that?

    A month or so later he was demanding we stay locked down because of ‘The Johnson Variant’, yet he can’t have really believed it was dangerous to socialise indoors anyway
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    Nigel Farage = Sir Keir Starmer enabler.

    Keep Calmer and...
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636
    edited December 2023
    So, two years ago tomorrow is the last time the Tories were ahead in any poll.

    6 Dec 2021, Redfield & Wilton, Con 38%, Lab 36%, LD 11%, Green 6%, RefUK 4%, SNP 4%.
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    BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,430
    Chris Christie pretty confident that Mark Meadows will sink Trump. Not least because conservative voters are more persuadable when it's Trump's former chief-of-staff providing the evidence, and a jury convicting.

    https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1731890138253308307

    Hope he's right.
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    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Farage came back to lead ReformUK based on the boost of his I'm a Celeb profile it is not impossible ReformUK could go even higher to about 15% and overtake the LDs for a clear 3rd place.

    A lot of 2019 Boris voters are now voting Reform and more would do so if Farage led them rather than Tice

    [Citation Needed]

    I've not seen any election where significant numbers have voted for Refuk.

    Where are these mythical elections where millions of 2019 Tory voters have voted for Reform? Because I've not seen any where that's the case.
    Reform are on 10% in the latest Yougov ahead of the LDs on 9%.

    20% of 2019 Conservative voters now back Reform to only 15% who have switched to Labour

    https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_231130_W.pdf
    That's opinion poll bollocks, not what you said which is voting.

    Voting is an action, which requires an election and is not the same as an opinion poll.

    Opinion polls also said Ed Miliband is Crap but will be Prime Minister. Voting said otherwise. You claimed people are voting Refuk - when and where, or retract that nonsense, because polls aren't voting.
    They didn't actually, the polls were neck and neck in 2015 but with Cameron ahead as preferred PM.

    UKIP did get 12% of the vote in 2015 under Farage's leadership though, largely as the polls predicted
    I appreciate that PB Right wingers moisten their gussets at the prospect of the return of Farage, but their are a couple of flaws to your scenario (quite apart from REFUK doing very poorly in real elections).

    1) There is no vacancy at the Top of REFUK, and Tice shows no signs of creating one.

    2) There is no unifying cause (like Brexit) to create bandwagon. Does anyone actually know any of REFUKs policies apart from being beastly to foreigners?

    2): It's a populist mishmash, if 2019 is anything to go by:

    No extension to the Brexit transition period
    No privatisation of the NHS
    Reducing immigration
    Cutting VAT on domestic fuel
    Banning the UK exporting its waste
    Providing free broadband in deprived regions
    Scrapping the television licence fee
    Abolishing inheritance tax
    Scrapping High Speed 2 (HS2)
    Abolishing interest on student loans
    Changing planning to help house building
    Reforming the Supreme Court
    Reform the voting system to make it more representative
    Abolish the House of Lords
    Making MPs who switch parties subject to recall petitions
    Reform the postal voting system to combat fraud
    Introduce Citizens’ Initiatives to allow people to call referendums

    (This last point is an interesting one as their proposed threshold is 5m registered voters. Since the 2019 'Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU' petition had 6.1m signatures, it seems quite possible that a carefully worded Citizens' Initiative calling for, say, the UK to join the Single Market, would gain enough signatures to call a referendum. I can hear Brenda from Bristol right now.)

    They seem to have changed their tune on the NHS.

    https://www.reformparty.uk/

    The plan is to have Zero Waiting lists within 24 months by giving people the right to have a GP appointment with 3 days, a Consultant appointment in 3 weeks and a operation with in 9 weeks. If not provided they get a voucher to go Private.

    That reads like a major cost pressure on a REFUK NHS budget.

    Is that even possible if you also plan to squeeze immigration?
    Perfectly possible. Easy to print and distribute enough vouchers. Of course the waiting lists would just shift to the private sector and patients would still be waiting but the policy as described would be delivered.
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    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,442

    Tonight's caption competition.

    image
    "This Sunak voodoo doll is so small - it's really hard to get the pins in."

    "Don recommended goggles"
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    So, two years ago tomorrow is the last time the Tories were ahead in any poll.

    6 Dec 2021, Redfield & Wilton, Con 38%, Lab 36%, LD 11%, Green 6%, RefUK 4%, SNP 4%.

    I was going to say that! :lol:
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    dixiedean said:

    Starmer has one great quality.
    He's an exceptionally lucky politician thus far.

    ... at the moment, though he could easily have been replaced back in 2020 and 2021. Where we'd be then, no-one can say.
    Was Starmer ever under threat in 2020/21? If so it passed me by.
    He threatened to resign if charged over beer gate.
    That's the threat of a man who knows he's not going to have to deliver on it.
    A classic barristers trick!
    How on earth did he get away with that?

    A month or so later he was demanding we stay locked down because of ‘The Johnson Variant’, yet he can’t have really believed it was dangerous to socialise indoors anyway
    The Johnson variant stuff was petty and irresponsible, not least because turns out it worked out fine.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578
    edited December 2023

    So, two years ago tomorrow is the last time the Tories were ahead in any poll.

    6 Dec 2021, Redfield & Wilton, Con 38%, Lab 36%, LD 11%, Green 6%, RefUK 4%, SNP 4%.

    I wonder when the next one will be?

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    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,969
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Farage came back to lead ReformUK based on the boost of his I'm a Celeb profile it is not impossible ReformUK could go even higher to about 15% and overtake the LDs for a clear 3rd place.

    A lot of 2019 Boris voters are now voting Reform and more would do so if Farage led them rather than Tice

    [Citation Needed]

    I've not seen any election where significant numbers have voted for Refuk.

    Where are these mythical elections where millions of 2019 Tory voters have voted for Reform? Because I've not seen any where that's the case.
    Reform are on 10% in the latest Yougov ahead of the LDs on 9%.

    20% of 2019 Conservative voters now back Reform to only 15% who have switched to Labour

    https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/TheTimes_VI_231130_W.pdf
    That's opinion poll bollocks, not what you said which is voting.

    Voting is an action, which requires an election and is not the same as an opinion poll.

    Opinion polls also said Ed Miliband is Crap but will be Prime Minister. Voting said otherwise. You claimed people are voting Refuk - when and where, or retract that nonsense, because polls aren't voting.
    They didn't actually, the polls were neck and neck in 2015 but with Cameron ahead as preferred PM.

    UKIP did get 12% of the vote in 2015 under Farage's leadership though, largely as the polls predicted
    The polls were not neck and neck in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014, the Tories went a period of years being behind in the polls but polls are not voting.

    In 2019 there were eight opinion polls which showed Farage's Brexit Party polling not just ahead of the Lib Dems, but ahead of both Labour and the Tory Party too for the next election. The next election had rather different voting to that though.

    Where is this mythical voting people are doing that you claimed? Polls are not voting, voting is something that happens at elections, so you should have actual election results to back up such an outlandish and obviously false claim.

    The only votes that are cast, are cast at election, not in opinion polls.

    Or can you not tell the difference between voting and opinion polls?
    Unlike Reform, UKIP were winning a lot of council seats and doing well in by-elections.
    Indeed, which is why I am somewhat sceptical that Reform UK will break the mold.

    Sure, some of that 10% will come out to vote for them. But as a smaller party, it's very hard to get over the whole "wasted vote" issue. The LibDems - and to a lesser extent the Greens - have done this by establishing themselves at the local level, getting Councillors elected, and banging on about "Winning Here".

    Reform needs to get people to go out and vote for a party that will not win their local seat. "Vote for us now so we can establish a base for next time" is a difficult message to sell.

    And without something "big" like EU exit, I think they'll struggle.
    Reform could gain a similar vote share to the Lib Dems, but gain no seats whereas the Lib Dems will gain several. Unless Reform can win local government seats, and then prove they are competent councillors, they won’t build up any areas of strength. Even 15% of the vote won’t help them if it is evenly spread. HYUFD should only be worried about Reform if they start winning council seats.
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    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    dixiedean said:

    Starmer has one great quality.
    He's an exceptionally lucky politician thus far.

    ... at the moment, though he could easily have been replaced back in 2020 and 2021. Where we'd be then, no-one can say.
    Was Starmer ever under threat in 2020/21? If so it passed me by.
    He threatened to resign if charged over beer gate.
    If they hadn’t won that by election where the candidate was Jo Cox’s sister he was in trouble
    Less than 400 votes in it
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Batley_and_Spen_by-election

    Maybe after the Corbyn years it'd take more than losing that to oust the Leader, not easy in Labour after all, but it feels like it would have been very significant.
    Galloway got 22%, but the Labour vote went down only 7 points compared to 2019.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,911
    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Fishing said:

    dixiedean said:

    Starmer has one great quality.
    He's an exceptionally lucky politician thus far.

    ... at the moment, though he could easily have been replaced back in 2020 and 2021. Where we'd be then, no-one can say.
    Was Starmer ever under threat in 2020/21? If so it passed me by.
    He threatened to resign if charged over beer gate.
    That's the threat of a man who knows he's not going to have to deliver on it.
    A classic barristers trick!
    How on earth did he get away with that?

    A month or so later he was demanding we stay locked down because of ‘The Johnson Variant’, yet he can’t have really believed it was dangerous to socialise indoors anyway
    The Johnson variant stuff was petty and irresponsible, not least because turns out it
    worked out fine.
    Yes, he was prepared to try and pressure us back into unnecessary lockdown via a kind of emotional blackmail on Boris - ‘lockdown or you’ll be blamed for deaths’. He must have been disappointed that there was no big surge in infections.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636

    So, two years ago tomorrow is the last time the Tories were ahead in any poll.

    6 Dec 2021, Redfield & Wilton, Con 38%, Lab 36%, LD 11%, Green 6%, RefUK 4%, SNP 4%.

    I was going to say that! :lol:
    Sorry. You can say it tomorrow!
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938

    After a huge amount of criticism from Israeli media, the BBC giving headline treatment to the 7th Oct atrocities.

    And they really are atrocities. This is quite different from "normal" warfare or even terrorism.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67629181

    She was alive," the witness says. "She was bleeding from her back."

    She goes on to detail how the men cut off parts of the victim's body during the assault.

    "They sliced her breast and threw it on the street," she says. "They were playing with it."

    The victim was passed to another man in uniform, she continues.

    "He penetrated her, and shot her in the head before he finished. He didn't even pick up his pants; he shoots and ejaculates."

    AND, from the same report:

    Another, Nachman Dyksztejna, provided written testimony of seeing the bodies of two women in kibbutz Be'eri with their hands and legs tied to a bed.

    "One was sexually terrorised with a knife stuck in her vagina and all her internal organs removed," his statement says.

    -----------------

    This is what Israelis are reading about. This is what they are learning was the fate of their young people. People they knew, and could well have been related to.

    It's really impossible to see how there can be any meaningful ceasefire or cessation until the IDF has levelled Gaza. Israeli public opinion simply won't allow it.

    What possesses people to commit such acts? I find it utterly beyond comprehension.

    Are they drugged up? Are they orders of magnitude more evil than any person I have ever met (even the genuinely nasty people I've met)?

    It's often said that anyone is capable of murder, and I believe that in the right (or rather wrong) circumstances, that is true. But this is a level of depravity that I cannot comprehend.

    (On reflection, it's not totally unprecedented - similar examples exist from WW2 and before, and no doubt more recent conflicts too. Baffling to me though.)
    You must read Ian Toll's Pacific War trilogy. He describes in some detail the behavior of Japanese troops who had been left to die, and their indiscriminate raping and murdering of local civilians. It is genuinely shocking.

    Human beings are capable of terrible evil.
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    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,969

    Nigel Farage = Sir Keir Starmer enabler.

    Keep Calmer and...
    …. vote Farage! 😆
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636
    Foxy said:

    So, two years ago tomorrow is the last time the Tories were ahead in any poll.

    6 Dec 2021, Redfield & Wilton, Con 38%, Lab 36%, LD 11%, Green 6%, RefUK 4%, SNP 4%.

    I wonder when the next one will be?
    Never, I hope. Time for the current Tory Party to disappear up its own arse and be replaced by a competent centre-right party that puts the country and its people first.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,505
    TimS said:

    There was a very useful TwiX thread yesterday (but unfortunately I can’t now find it). Particularly useful for betting purposes. It compared Reform polling in the current parliament with by-election votes, and then did the same comparison for UKIP during the 2010-15 parliament.

    The contrast is striking. UKIP were scoring 12-13% in polls, but regularly hitting the 20s in Westminster byelections, and were winning lots of councillors.

    Ref are on 9-11% in polls, not far behind 2010-15 UKIP, but they have only twice breached 5% in a Westminster by-election (in very Brexity Bexley and Sidcup, and Tamworth), generally getting 2-3%.

    Conclusion: the polls are massively overstating Ref support (and I suspect green too).

    I think this is almost certainly correct, and bigly increases the chances of NOM, which current polling more or less rules out. Collapse of Reform, some swingback and a bit of Labour internal rows could do it. Bet accordingly.

    BTW there is little purpose in discussing Reform's policies - even the free unicorn for every child and owl for adults - as they are not going to be in the unhappy position of failing to deliver them. Notice that the mob who will be - Labour - are rowing back from the free owls with all haste, there being, as Byrne might have said, no owls left.

    One further footnote, Cooper is an inspired choice for the talking head for labour on migration and all that. Few others would handle this dynamite so well and appear to say so much so passionately while saying nothing at all. Government of course will be a different matter.
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    BBC news at ten is grim.

    Lefties Hamas lovers will be reaching for their remotes.

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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636
    No party that has been behind in every poll continuously for two years has ever won the subsequent GE.
This discussion has been closed.