Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

How was this sausage made? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,014
edited December 2023 in General
imageHow was this sausage made? – politicalbetting.com

What was the one development without which the Post Office scandal could not have happened? In a bitter irony, tinkering with a law enacted following a serious miscarriage of justice – the Confait case – the Inquiry report (yes, another one!) is here) enabled what is now the worst miscarriage of justice in English history. The law is the Police and Criminal Evidence Act 1984 (“PACE”); the tinkering is to S.69 – its removal and replacement by – well, nothing. 

Read the full story here

«134

Comments

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,358
    edited November 2023
    Excellent piece as ever.

    This is in top tier of scandals involving the justice system in the history of the UK
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554
    Yet still doesn’t have anywhere near the salience of Hillsborough, Stephen Lawrence, the Maxwell pensions, Windrush, Catholic child abuse etc.

    As discussed here before it’s the anonymity and geographically dispersed nature of the victims that makes it so.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,939
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    PMQs summary for the 99.9% who don't watch it. Poor old Rishi, taken to the cleaners by an increasingly confident Starmer.
    The PM is a dead man walking, and I've no idea how he can turn it around.

    Starmer's Midas quip was even borderline funny, which is a first from him.
    The quip itself was mildly amusing; the follow-up aimed at Cleverly was ROFL good.
    It wasn’t, tho, was it?

    You weren’t actually “rolling on the floor laughing” at a joke by Sir Kir Royale

    I doubt if anyone has ever rolled on the floor laughing at a joke by anyone, let alone Sir Royale

    The closest I have come is being doubled over with laughter at an early Eddie Izzard gig (when he was so so good), when I laughed so much it genuinely hurt, even then I didn’t actually collapse to the ground and roll around in agony like I had some fucking kidney stone, you stupid fucking twat
    No, I wasn't actually ROFL, you are right. It was an exaggeration for emphasis: not something you would ever consider, even when smashed off your box on Thai gin.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,939
    eek said:

    Well PMQs today was extremely entertaining. Sunak looked crestfallen throughout much of it.

    Some good lines delivered by Royale, albeit into an open goal. The gag about the Reverse Midas touch and the "everything turns to... maybe the Home Secretary can help me with the last line" follow-up to Clever Jimmy was inspired.

    But – WTF is this policy about a 20% discount for employers to hire foreign brickies and plasterers? Is that widely known? Strikes me as utterly toxic for the government as creates a massive perverse incentive for companies to use foreign labour rather than homegrown workers.

    It has been in place for a while. I would assume logic is if £30,000 is the national average salary for a particular job, then typical salaries for that job would be something like £25,000-£35,000 especially given regional cost of living differences. And new hires probably at the lower end of the range.

    But, yes, politically hard to sell.
    Sorry, still don't understand. Do employers get paid by the government to hire these blokes, or something else?
    No, it just allows you to bring in a cheaper overseas worker while forcing the local one to take a pay cut
    Why? Don't grasp how it works in the slightest, sorry.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    PMQs summary for the 99.9% who don't watch it. Poor old Rishi, taken to the cleaners by an increasingly confident Starmer.
    The PM is a dead man walking, and I've no idea how he can turn it around.

    Starmer's Midas quip was even borderline funny, which is a first from him.
    The quip itself was mildly amusing; the follow-up aimed at Cleverly was ROFL good.
    It wasn’t, tho, was it?

    You weren’t actually “rolling on the floor laughing” at a joke by Sir Kir Royale

    I doubt if anyone has ever rolled on the floor laughing at a joke by anyone, let alone Sir Royale

    The closest I have come is being doubled over with laughter at an early Eddie Izzard gig (when he was so so good), when I laughed so much it genuinely hurt, even then I didn’t actually collapse to the ground and roll around in agony like I had some fucking kidney stone, you stupid fucking twat
    No, I wasn't actually ROFL, you are right. It was an exaggeration for emphasis: not something you would ever consider, even when smashed off your box on Thai gin.
    Sorry, nothing personal

    I am on my second rooftop Martini and it amused me to lurch from reasonable if quirky argumentation to pointless overdone sweary abuse

    That said, these twee little internet exaggerations do annoy me - “you owe me a new laptop” - no he doesn’t - “ROFLMAO” - no that didn’t happen - etc

    They are very much a tic of the midwit Left
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    TimS said:

    Yet still doesn’t have anywhere near the salience of Hillsborough, Stephen Lawrence, the Maxwell pensions, Windrush, Catholic child abuse etc.

    As discussed here before it’s the anonymity and geographically dispersed nature of the victims that makes it so.

    Also, Post offices are boring

    It’s not “twelve years a slave” is it?
  • Options
    Time to back England to win the Six Nations


  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,001
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    PMQs summary for the 99.9% who don't watch it. Poor old Rishi, taken to the cleaners by an increasingly confident Starmer.
    The PM is a dead man walking, and I've no idea how he can turn it around.

    Starmer's Midas quip was even borderline funny, which is a first from him.
    The quip itself was mildly amusing; the follow-up aimed at Cleverly was ROFL good.
    It wasn’t, tho, was it?

    You weren’t actually “rolling on the floor laughing” at a joke by Sir Kir Royale

    I doubt if anyone has ever rolled on the floor laughing at a joke by anyone, let alone Sir Royale

    The closest I have come is being doubled over with laughter at an early Eddie Izzard gig (when he was so so good), when I laughed so much it genuinely hurt, even then I didn’t actually collapse to the ground and roll around in agony like I had some fucking kidney stone, you stupid fucking twat
    No, I wasn't actually ROFL, you are right. It was an exaggeration for emphasis: not something you would ever consider, even when smashed off your box on Thai gin.
    Sorry, nothing personal

    I am on my second rooftop Martini and it amused me to lurch from reasonable if quirky argumentation to pointless overdone sweary abuse

    That said, these twee little internet exaggerations do annoy me - “you owe me a new laptop” - no he doesn’t - “ROFLMAO” - no that didn’t happen - etc

    They are very much a tic of the midwit Left
    The halfwit right are just as prone to a “Lol. Lmao.” in my experience. I don’t think you need to reflexively whack a political orientation on it.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    TimS said:

    Yet still doesn’t have anywhere near the salience of Hillsborough, Stephen Lawrence, the Maxwell pensions, Windrush, Catholic child abuse etc.

    As discussed here before it’s the anonymity and geographically dispersed nature of the victims that makes it so.

    Excellent piece (as usual).

    This is up there with the Rotherham abuses and Jimmy Savile, systemic failures over a long period of time rather than a reaction to a single event.

    Yes, the varied nature of those involved played a huge part - they were of all races, ages, genders, and locations across the country, with nothing linking them together in the mind of the public.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,939
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    PMQs summary for the 99.9% who don't watch it. Poor old Rishi, taken to the cleaners by an increasingly confident Starmer.
    The PM is a dead man walking, and I've no idea how he can turn it around.

    Starmer's Midas quip was even borderline funny, which is a first from him.
    The quip itself was mildly amusing; the follow-up aimed at Cleverly was ROFL good.
    It wasn’t, tho, was it?

    You weren’t actually “rolling on the floor laughing” at a joke by Sir Kir Royale

    I doubt if anyone has ever rolled on the floor laughing at a joke by anyone, let alone Sir Royale

    The closest I have come is being doubled over with laughter at an early Eddie Izzard gig (when he was so so good), when I laughed so much it genuinely hurt, even then I didn’t actually collapse to the ground and roll around in agony like I had some fucking kidney stone, you stupid fucking twat
    No, I wasn't actually ROFL, you are right. It was an exaggeration for emphasis: not something you would ever consider, even when smashed off your box on Thai gin.
    Sorry, nothing personal

    I am on my second rooftop Martini and it amused me to lurch from reasonable if quirky argumentation to pointless overdone sweary abuse

    That said, these twee little internet exaggerations do annoy me - “you owe me a new laptop” - no he doesn’t - “ROFLMAO” - no that didn’t happen - etc

    They are very much a tic of the midwit Left
    I was clearly guilty of using a trite cliche, not in the same league as It's A View or Colour Me Unsurprised or One of Those Irregular Verbs or Doing Some Heavy Lifting or As I Was Saying Passim or It's a Feature Not a Bug... but a trite cliche nevertheless.

    The second Martini was right, as is so often the case. In vino veritas.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,939
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Yet still doesn’t have anywhere near the salience of Hillsborough, Stephen Lawrence, the Maxwell pensions, Windrush, Catholic child abuse etc.

    As discussed here before it’s the anonymity and geographically dispersed nature of the victims that makes it so.

    Also, Post offices are boring

    It’s not “twelve years a slave” is it?
    It's probably wrong of me but I can't get into the PO scandal, as bad as that is. I hope the perpetrators get their comeuppance, but finding it interesting as a true crime story is difficult.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Yet still doesn’t have anywhere near the salience of Hillsborough, Stephen Lawrence, the Maxwell pensions, Windrush, Catholic child abuse etc.

    As discussed here before it’s the anonymity and geographically dispersed nature of the victims that makes it so.

    Also, Post offices are boring

    It’s not “twelve years a slave” is it?
    It's probably wrong of me but I can't get into the PO scandal, as bad as that is. I hope the perpetrators get their comeuppance, but finding it interesting as a true crime story is difficult.
    Well I suppose the one thing it’s wasn’t was true crime.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,161
    Very interesting. It can be tricky to prove something isn't working perfectly and also that it is. Do we know why s69 was dropped btw? Eg was it leading to lots of dodgy people getting off? If it were brought back, so you have to prove computerised evidence is reliable, I wonder how this will work in practice. Eg the Auditors, when they sign off on the accounts of an entity, I think (?) this includes that all key systems and controls are working properly. Could one rely on that? Or does the legal process need something more specific and rigorous?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993

    Time to back England to win the Six Nations


    Hmm. That sounds a bit ominous and sad

    Farrell can be an annoying player but all sympathy to him if something nasty has happened. He gets far too much criticism as it is. Often from me. So now I feel guilty
  • Options

    eek said:

    Well PMQs today was extremely entertaining. Sunak looked crestfallen throughout much of it.

    Some good lines delivered by Royale, albeit into an open goal. The gag about the Reverse Midas touch and the "everything turns to... maybe the Home Secretary can help me with the last line" follow-up to Clever Jimmy was inspired.

    But – WTF is this policy about a 20% discount for employers to hire foreign brickies and plasterers? Is that widely known? Strikes me as utterly toxic for the government as creates a massive perverse incentive for companies to use foreign labour rather than homegrown workers.

    It has been in place for a while. I would assume logic is if £30,000 is the national average salary for a particular job, then typical salaries for that job would be something like £25,000-£35,000 especially given regional cost of living differences. And new hires probably at the lower end of the range.

    But, yes, politically hard to sell.
    Sorry, still don't understand. Do employers get paid by the government to hire these blokes, or something else?
    No, it just allows you to bring in a cheaper overseas worker while forcing the local one to take a pay cut
    Why? Don't grasp how it works in the slightest, sorry.
    I think that employers have to pay the 'going rate' to foreign employees. If, however, they're on the 'Shortage Occupation List' then the employer is only obliged to pay them 80% of the 'going rate'.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/skilled-worker-visa-shortage-occupations/skilled-worker-visa-shortage-occupations

    I suppose the idea is to incentivize the hiring foreigners so that vital jobs aren't left unfilled.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,939

    eek said:

    Well PMQs today was extremely entertaining. Sunak looked crestfallen throughout much of it.

    Some good lines delivered by Royale, albeit into an open goal. The gag about the Reverse Midas touch and the "everything turns to... maybe the Home Secretary can help me with the last line" follow-up to Clever Jimmy was inspired.

    But – WTF is this policy about a 20% discount for employers to hire foreign brickies and plasterers? Is that widely known? Strikes me as utterly toxic for the government as creates a massive perverse incentive for companies to use foreign labour rather than homegrown workers.

    It has been in place for a while. I would assume logic is if £30,000 is the national average salary for a particular job, then typical salaries for that job would be something like £25,000-£35,000 especially given regional cost of living differences. And new hires probably at the lower end of the range.

    But, yes, politically hard to sell.
    Sorry, still don't understand. Do employers get paid by the government to hire these blokes, or something else?
    No, it just allows you to bring in a cheaper overseas worker while forcing the local one to take a pay cut
    Why? Don't grasp how it works in the slightest, sorry.
    I think that employers have to pay the 'going rate' to foreign employees. If, however, they're on the 'Shortage Occupation List' then the employer is only obliged to pay them 80% of the 'going rate'.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/skilled-worker-visa-shortage-occupations/skilled-worker-visa-shortage-occupations

    I suppose the idea is to incentivize the hiring foreigners so that vital jobs aren't left unfilled.
    Thanks – and it is clearly working, given the record numbers of migrants. Yet a very hard sell on the doorstep: the government is deliberately creating a framework whereby foreign workers undercut homegrown labour. Could be a real curveball for Sunak IMO.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    PMQs summary for the 99.9% who don't watch it. Poor old Rishi, taken to the cleaners by an increasingly confident Starmer.
    The PM is a dead man walking, and I've no idea how he can turn it around.

    Starmer's Midas quip was even borderline funny, which is a first from him.
    The quip itself was mildly amusing; the follow-up aimed at Cleverly was ROFL good.
    It wasn’t, tho, was it?

    You weren’t actually “rolling on the floor laughing” at a joke by Sir Kir Royale

    I doubt if anyone has ever rolled on the floor laughing at a joke by anyone, let alone Sir Royale

    The closest I have come is being doubled over with laughter at an early Eddie Izzard gig (when he was so so good), when I laughed so much it genuinely hurt, even then I didn’t actually collapse to the ground and roll around in agony like I had some fucking kidney stone, you stupid fucking twat
    No, I wasn't actually ROFL, you are right. It was an exaggeration for emphasis: not something you would ever consider, even when smashed off your box on Thai gin.
    We need some more nuanced British acronyms for stages of laughter. AMALCUMB (allowed myself a little chuckle under my breath) perhaps, or CHAWGAT (couldn’t help a wry grin at that).
    CHAWGAT and AMALCUMB are both excellent - especially the latter as it nearly lurches into intense rudeness

    Bravo!

    I suggest we adopt these as special PB neologisms which mark us out

    To my mind they are as good as

    Lagershed
    Rogerdamus (invented by @seant I believe)
    BAXTERED (also @seant)
    And
    OGH (no idea)

    From now on I shall use both liberally
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,148
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Yet still doesn’t have anywhere near the salience of Hillsborough, Stephen Lawrence, the Maxwell pensions, Windrush, Catholic child abuse etc.

    As discussed here before it’s the anonymity and geographically dispersed nature of the victims that makes it so.

    Also, Post offices are boring

    It’s not “twelve years a slave” is it?
    It's probably wrong of me but I can't get into the PO scandal, as bad as that is. I hope the perpetrators get their comeuppance, but finding it interesting as a true crime story is difficult.
    Well I suppose the one thing it’s wasn’t was true crime.
    I tend to disagree - the conspiracy to cover up failings in the system which resulted in wrongful prosecutions and suicides surely is a crime?
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,504
    Thank you for this article. The problem here is so obvious that it is easy to overlook the subsequent difficulty: How should the criminal law be framed, and how shall its consequences be funded.

    The problem arises with any action, communication etc relying on a system outside of the one communicating and the recipient - which in the modern world is more or less everything apart from personal conversation and paper with writing on it (what are they? a young person might ask).

    Let us say that a minor criminal case depends upon: An email, a text message and the absence of any record of a transaction in a branch of Sainsbury's on the Saturday before Christmas (his alibi).

    The prosecutor is to prove all this. The defendant remains mostly mute, denies everything, asserts the email and text message never existed and that the absence of record of a particular transaction in Sainsbury's is due to computer unreliability.

    The task of proving every stage of these everyday matters would be burdensome in a murder case let alone some minor matter.

    So what is to be done, Cyclefree, when reliance of systems no individual understands in universal, and how shall the law be framed?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938
    Great piece.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,119

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    PMQs summary for the 99.9% who don't watch it. Poor old Rishi, taken to the cleaners by an increasingly confident Starmer.
    The PM is a dead man walking, and I've no idea how he can turn it around.

    Starmer's Midas quip was even borderline funny, which is a first from him.
    The quip itself was mildly amusing; the follow-up aimed at Cleverly was ROFL good.
    It wasn’t, tho, was it?

    You weren’t actually “rolling on the floor laughing” at a joke by Sir Kir Royale

    I doubt if anyone has ever rolled on the floor laughing at a joke by anyone, let alone Sir Royale

    The closest I have come is being doubled over with laughter at an early Eddie Izzard gig (when he was so so good), when I laughed so much it genuinely hurt, even then I didn’t actually collapse to the ground and roll around in agony like I had some fucking kidney stone, you stupid fucking twat
    No, I wasn't actually ROFL, you are right. It was an exaggeration for emphasis: not something you would ever consider, even when smashed off your box on Thai gin.
    Sorry, nothing personal

    I am on my second rooftop Martini and it amused me to lurch from reasonable if quirky argumentation to pointless overdone sweary abuse

    That said, these twee little internet exaggerations do annoy me - “you owe me a new laptop” - no he doesn’t - “ROFLMAO” - no that didn’t happen - etc

    They are very much a tic of the midwit Left
    I was clearly guilty of using a trite cliche, not in the same league as It's A View or Colour Me Unsurprised or One of Those Irregular Verbs or Doing Some Heavy Lifting or As I Was Saying Passim or It's a Feature Not a Bug... but a trite cliche nevertheless.

    The second Martini was right, as is so often the case. In vino veritas.
    In cash veritas
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,358
    edited November 2023
    FPT
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    PMQs summary for the 99.9% who don't watch it. Poor old Rishi, taken to the cleaners by an increasingly confident Starmer.
    The PM is a dead man walking, and I've no idea how he can turn it around.

    Starmer's Midas quip was even borderline funny, which is a first from him.
    It was and I hope it doesn't go to his head. Last thing we need is him prioritising comedy over competence. We've seen where that leads.
    Starmer’s a top top lawyer, there’s no risk of arrogance.
  • Options
    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    PMQs summary for the 99.9% who don't watch it. Poor old Rishi, taken to the cleaners by an increasingly confident Starmer.
    The PM is a dead man walking, and I've no idea how he can turn it around.

    Starmer's Midas quip was even borderline funny, which is a first from him.
    The quip itself was mildly amusing; the follow-up aimed at Cleverly was ROFL good.
    It wasn’t, tho, was it?

    You weren’t actually “rolling on the floor laughing” at a joke by Sir Kir Royale

    I doubt if anyone has ever rolled on the floor laughing at a joke by anyone, let alone Sir Royale

    The closest I have come is being doubled over with laughter at an early Eddie Izzard gig (when he was so so good), when I laughed so much it genuinely hurt, even then I didn’t actually collapse to the ground and roll around in agony like I had some fucking kidney stone, you stupid fucking twat
    No, I wasn't actually ROFL, you are right. It was an exaggeration for emphasis: not something you would ever consider, even when smashed off your box on Thai gin.
    Sorry, nothing personal

    I am on my second rooftop Martini and it amused me to lurch from reasonable if quirky argumentation to pointless overdone sweary abuse

    That said, these twee little internet exaggerations do annoy me - “you owe me a new laptop” - no he doesn’t - “ROFLMAO” - no that didn’t happen - etc

    They are very much a tic of the midwit Left
    The halfwit right are just as prone to a “Lol. Lmao.” in my experience. I don’t think you need to reflexively whack a political orientation on it.
    Aye, to the point they positively relish the election of the likes of Trump for the lolz and the annoying of the right people.
    Thankfully none of those shallow types on here.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Yet still doesn’t have anywhere near the salience of Hillsborough, Stephen Lawrence, the Maxwell pensions, Windrush, Catholic child abuse etc.

    As discussed here before it’s the anonymity and geographically dispersed nature of the victims that makes it so.

    Also, Post offices are boring

    It’s not “twelve years a slave” is it?
    It's probably wrong of me but I can't get into the PO scandal, as bad as that is. I hope the perpetrators get their comeuppance, but finding it interesting as a true crime story is difficult.
    That's unfortunately one reason those who should do something won't.

    I dread to think what scandals I'm lukewarm on are actually way worse than I think.
  • Options

    eek said:

    Well PMQs today was extremely entertaining. Sunak looked crestfallen throughout much of it.

    Some good lines delivered by Royale, albeit into an open goal. The gag about the Reverse Midas touch and the "everything turns to... maybe the Home Secretary can help me with the last line" follow-up to Clever Jimmy was inspired.

    But – WTF is this policy about a 20% discount for employers to hire foreign brickies and plasterers? Is that widely known? Strikes me as utterly toxic for the government as creates a massive perverse incentive for companies to use foreign labour rather than homegrown workers.

    It has been in place for a while. I would assume logic is if £30,000 is the national average salary for a particular job, then typical salaries for that job would be something like £25,000-£35,000 especially given regional cost of living differences. And new hires probably at the lower end of the range.

    But, yes, politically hard to sell.
    Sorry, still don't understand. Do employers get paid by the government to hire these blokes, or something else?
    No, it just allows you to bring in a cheaper overseas worker while forcing the local one to take a pay cut
    Why? Don't grasp how it works in the slightest, sorry.
    I think that employers have to pay the 'going rate' to foreign employees. If, however, they're on the 'Shortage Occupation List' then the employer is only obliged to pay them 80% of the 'going rate'.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/skilled-worker-visa-shortage-occupations/skilled-worker-visa-shortage-occupations

    I suppose the idea is to incentivize the hiring foreigners so that vital jobs aren't left unfilled.
    Especially since one of the theories of you-know-what was to stop non-Britons coming in and undercutting the wages of British workers.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554
    Should I be worried that my flight is delayed because there is a missing screw on the plane, and an engineer just came to look and said we should be ok to fly without it? Was it the screw holding on the landing gear? Or the wing?

    The pilot just said “we are literally sitting here waiting for a screw” and AMALCUMB at that.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    edited November 2023
    TimS said:

    Should I be worried that my flight is delayed because there is a missing screw on the plane, and an engineer just came to look and said we should be ok to fly without it? Was it the screw holding on the landing gear? Or the wing?

    The pilot just said “we are literally sitting here waiting for a screw” and AMALCUMB at that.

    It’s only the screw holding the engine onto the wing, you’ll be fine without it!

    Edit1: I’m sure one of the hosties will oblige the pilot, if he asks nicely?

    Edit2: Genuinely don’t worry if you’re in any way nervous. The pilot and the engineer do know what they’re doing!
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,403
    TimS said:

    Should I be worried that my flight is delayed because there is a missing screw on the plane, and an engineer just came to look and said we should be ok to fly without it? Was it the screw holding on the landing gear? Or the wing?

    The pilot just said “we are literally sitting here waiting for a screw” and AMALCUMB at that.

    Technically, the missing screw is not on the plane?

    Or perhaps it is on the plane, but not in the right location? If anyone finds it, I guess they'll be able to say they once had a screw on a plane.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    edited November 2023
    One of the most awkward of modern political facts: South Africa is turning into the failed African state predicted by the white Afrikaaner opponents of reform at the End of Apartheid. Everything they said would come true, is coming true. Chaos, crime, corruption. It will soon break down altogether, on its present trajectory


    “Almost half of the population is unemployed and living in poverty. Nationwide, the jobless rate stands at 32.9%. Around 18 million people rely on some form of social aid, which makes the number of beneficiaries twice as many as registered taxpayers.

    Meanwhile, crime has proliferated. The once flourishing central business district is an eyesore where derelict buildings are hijacked by criminal syndicates, forcing out major commercial operations from the area. For more petty criminals, in vogue are cables and metals that can be stolen from electricity substations and sold on the black market. Others just try to connect to the grid illegally.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-06-16/south-africa-s-crime-chaos-and-corruption-make-it-look-like-a-failed-state

    On the other hand, they have a really good, well-integrated rugby team
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,403
    Sandpit said:

    TimS said:

    Should I be worried that my flight is delayed because there is a missing screw on the plane, and an engineer just came to look and said we should be ok to fly without it? Was it the screw holding on the landing gear? Or the wing?

    The pilot just said “we are literally sitting here waiting for a screw” and AMALCUMB at that.

    It’s only the screw holding the engine onto the wing, you’ll be fine without it!

    Edit1: I’m sure one of the hosties will oblige the pilot, if he asks nicely?

    Edit2: Genuinely don’t worry if you’re in any way nervous. The pilot and the engineer do know what they’re doing!
    Ask them whether they've checked the left phalange.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    TimS said:

    Should I be worried that my flight is delayed because there is a missing screw on the plane, and an engineer just came to look and said we should be ok to fly without it? Was it the screw holding on the landing gear? Or the wing?

    The pilot just said “we are literally sitting here waiting for a screw” and AMALCUMB at that.

    CHAWGAT

    At least you will die in Biz class? Albeit sober, which seems a waste of champagne
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    The stats coming out of South Africa are mind boggling


    In 2022-23 the UK endured about 660 homicides

    In the 2nd quarter of 2023 - ie in just 3 months - South Africa endured 7,000 murders, and 13,000 sexual assaults - those are the ones recorded by police

    “The police also recorded 6 009 hijackings, 6 045 robberies at residential properties and 4 910 robberies at non-residential premises.”

    https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/parliament/crime-stats-close-to-7000-south-africans-murdered-in-three-months-13-000-sexually-assaulted-20231117

    This is a major state on the brink of failure, yet how often is it mentioned?
  • Options
    NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,347
    Leon said:

    The stats coming out of South Africa are mind boggling


    In 2022-23 the UK endured about 660 homicides

    In the 2nd quarter of 2023 - ie in just 3 months - South Africa endured 7,000 murders, and 13,000 sexual assaults - those are the ones recorded by police

    “The police also recorded 6 009 hijackings, 6 045 robberies at residential properties and 4 910 robberies at non-residential premises.”

    https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/parliament/crime-stats-close-to-7000-south-africans-murdered-in-three-months-13-000-sexually-assaulted-20231117

    This is a major state on the brink of failure, yet how often is it mentioned?

    Remember the UK is in a far worse state than anywhere else.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,161
    edited November 2023
    Leon said:

    One of the most awkward of modern political facts: South Africa is turning into the failed African state predicted by the white Afrikaaner opponents of reform at the End of Apartheid. Everything they said would come true, is coming true. Chaos, crime, corruption. It will soon break down altogether, on its present trajectory


    “Almost half of the population is unemployed and living in poverty. Nationwide, the jobless rate stands at 32.9%. Around 18 million people rely on some form of social aid, which makes the number of beneficiaries twice as many as registered taxpayers.

    Meanwhile, crime has proliferated. The once flourishing central business district is an eyesore where derelict buildings are hijacked by criminal syndicates, forcing out major commercial operations from the area. For more petty criminals, in vogue are cables and metals that can be stolen from electricity substations and sold on the black market. Others just try to connect to the grid illegally.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-06-16/south-africa-s-crime-chaos-and-corruption-make-it-look-like-a-failed-state

    On the other hand, they have a really good, well-integrated rugby team

    More tragic than 'awkward', I'd have thought. Unless it's being advanced (by you?) as proof that blacks need whitey to boss them about and run their affairs. Which would be pretty moronic, obviously, and a teeny bit racist to boot.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,800
    Leon said:

    One of the most awkward of modern political facts: South Africa is turning into the failed African state predicted by the white Afrikaaner opponents of reform at the End of Apartheid. Everything they said would come true, is coming true. Chaos, crime, corruption. It will soon break down altogether, on its present trajectory


    “Almost half of the population is unemployed and living in poverty. Nationwide, the jobless rate stands at 32.9%. Around 18 million people rely on some form of social aid, which makes the number of beneficiaries twice as many as registered taxpayers.

    Meanwhile, crime has proliferated. The once flourishing central business district is an eyesore where derelict buildings are hijacked by criminal syndicates, forcing out major commercial operations from the area. For more petty criminals, in vogue are cables and metals that can be stolen from electricity substations and sold on the black market. Others just try to connect to the grid illegally.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-06-16/south-africa-s-crime-chaos-and-corruption-make-it-look-like-a-failed-state

    On the other hand, they have a really good, well-integrated rugby team

    IMHO, the best hope for that country is if the Western Cape, which has a competent government, effectively secedes.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993

    Leon said:

    The stats coming out of South Africa are mind boggling


    In 2022-23 the UK endured about 660 homicides

    In the 2nd quarter of 2023 - ie in just 3 months - South Africa endured 7,000 murders, and 13,000 sexual assaults - those are the ones recorded by police

    “The police also recorded 6 009 hijackings, 6 045 robberies at residential properties and 4 910 robberies at non-residential premises.”

    https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/parliament/crime-stats-close-to-7000-south-africans-murdered-in-three-months-13-000-sexually-assaulted-20231117

    This is a major state on the brink of failure, yet how often is it mentioned?

    Remember the UK is in a far worse state than anywhere else.
    The only news I’ve seen, from South Africa, in recent months is the Oscar Pitorius case, the celebrations over the rugby, and SA support for Palestine

    No major news service, that I can recall, is offering the fairly relevant info that SA is on the brink of total collapse into criminal anarchy, with widespread power cuts, business chaos, crumbling infra, water shortages, and so on. Yet the briefest search of Google news shows this is the case

    It is going the same way as Zimbabwe, as the Afrikaaner racists predicted
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,386
    Leon said:

    The stats coming out of South Africa are mind boggling


    In 2022-23 the UK endured about 660 homicides

    In the 2nd quarter of 2023 - ie in just 3 months - South Africa endured 7,000 murders, and 13,000 sexual assaults - those are the ones recorded by police

    “The police also recorded 6 009 hijackings, 6 045 robberies at residential properties and 4 910 robberies at non-residential premises.”

    https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/parliament/crime-stats-close-to-7000-south-africans-murdered-in-three-months-13-000-sexually-assaulted-20231117

    This is a major state on the brink of failure, yet how often is it mentioned?

    There's a guy, I think, who writes periodically about this on, I think, Unherd.

    But yes, it's interesting how seldom it's mentioned. Is it because we have mentally placed SA in a box marked 'third world' and just expect it to be terrible? Or is it because we all tacitly agreed that apartheid was so bad that whatever replaced it had to work and we just don't want to know that it didn't?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,161
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    The stats coming out of South Africa are mind boggling


    In 2022-23 the UK endured about 660 homicides

    In the 2nd quarter of 2023 - ie in just 3 months - South Africa endured 7,000 murders, and 13,000 sexual assaults - those are the ones recorded by police

    “The police also recorded 6 009 hijackings, 6 045 robberies at residential properties and 4 910 robberies at non-residential premises.”

    https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/parliament/crime-stats-close-to-7000-south-africans-murdered-in-three-months-13-000-sexually-assaulted-20231117

    This is a major state on the brink of failure, yet how often is it mentioned?

    There's a guy, I think, who writes periodically about this on, I think, Unherd.

    But yes, it's interesting how seldom it's mentioned. Is it because we have mentally placed SA in a box marked 'third world' and just expect it to be terrible? Or is it because we all tacitly agreed that apartheid was so bad that whatever replaced it had to work and we just don't want to know that it didn't?
    It worked to end apartheid.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    The stats coming out of South Africa are mind boggling


    In 2022-23 the UK endured about 660 homicides

    In the 2nd quarter of 2023 - ie in just 3 months - South Africa endured 7,000 murders, and 13,000 sexual assaults - those are the ones recorded by police

    “The police also recorded 6 009 hijackings, 6 045 robberies at residential properties and 4 910 robberies at non-residential premises.”

    https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/parliament/crime-stats-close-to-7000-south-africans-murdered-in-three-months-13-000-sexually-assaulted-20231117

    This is a major state on the brink of failure, yet how often is it mentioned?

    There's a guy, I think, who writes periodically about this on, I think, Unherd.

    But yes, it's interesting how seldom it's mentioned. Is it because we have mentally placed SA in a box marked 'third world' and just expect it to be terrible? Or is it because we all tacitly agreed that apartheid was so bad that whatever replaced it had to work and we just don't want to know that it didn't?
    Mixture of both, methinks
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    edited November 2023
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The stats coming out of South Africa are mind boggling


    In 2022-23 the UK endured about 660 homicides

    In the 2nd quarter of 2023 - ie in just 3 months - South Africa endured 7,000 murders, and 13,000 sexual assaults - those are the ones recorded by police

    “The police also recorded 6 009 hijackings, 6 045 robberies at residential properties and 4 910 robberies at non-residential premises.”

    https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/parliament/crime-stats-close-to-7000-south-africans-murdered-in-three-months-13-000-sexually-assaulted-20231117

    This is a major state on the brink of failure, yet how often is it mentioned?

    Remember the UK is in a far worse state than anywhere else.
    The only news I’ve seen, from South Africa, in recent months is the Oscar Pitorius case, the celebrations over the rugby, and SA support for Palestine

    No major news service, that I can recall, is offering the fairly relevant info that SA is on the brink of total collapse into criminal anarchy, with widespread power cuts, business chaos, crumbling infra, water shortages, and so on. Yet the briefest search of Google news shows this is the case

    It is going the same way as Zimbabwe, as the Afrikaaner racists predicted
    This video, from Wendover Productions, turned up last month out of nowhere. Not their usual style nor subject matter, I suspect that some of their production team are from SA.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=Iiny1GrfhYM
    “South Africa's Slow, Inevitable March Towards Collapse” 3M views.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,386
    edited November 2023
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    One of the most awkward of modern political facts: South Africa is turning into the failed African state predicted by the white Afrikaaner opponents of reform at the End of Apartheid. Everything they said would come true, is coming true. Chaos, crime, corruption. It will soon break down altogether, on its present trajectory


    “Almost half of the population is unemployed and living in poverty. Nationwide, the jobless rate stands at 32.9%. Around 18 million people rely on some form of social aid, which makes the number of beneficiaries twice as many as registered taxpayers.

    Meanwhile, crime has proliferated. The once flourishing central business district is an eyesore where derelict buildings are hijacked by criminal syndicates, forcing out major commercial operations from the area. For more petty criminals, in vogue are cables and metals that can be stolen from electricity substations and sold on the black market. Others just try to connect to the grid illegally.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-06-16/south-africa-s-crime-chaos-and-corruption-make-it-look-like-a-failed-state

    On the other hand, they have a really good, well-integrated rugby team

    More tragic than 'awkward', I'd have thought. Unless it's being advanced (by you?) as proof that blacks need whitey to boss them about and run their affairs. Which would be pretty moronic, obviously, and a teeny bit racist to boot.
    Well it's tragic that SA is disintegrating and thousands of people a year are being murdered. But it's certainly awkward that the Afrikaaners perhaps had a point about the ANC. Because it's certainly not the side of the argument I'd rather be on.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,161
    "Awkward' ... lol.

    Oh dear oh dear. Let's see where this one goes. I'm intrigued and at the same time a little anxious.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    The global politics of the disintegration of the South African state would be interesting.

    Who would play the role that Germany did in Yugoslavia when they unilaterally recognised the independence of Slovenia and Croatia?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,161
    edited November 2023
    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    One of the most awkward of modern political facts: South Africa is turning into the failed African state predicted by the white Afrikaaner opponents of reform at the End of Apartheid. Everything they said would come true, is coming true. Chaos, crime, corruption. It will soon break down altogether, on its present trajectory


    “Almost half of the population is unemployed and living in poverty. Nationwide, the jobless rate stands at 32.9%. Around 18 million people rely on some form of social aid, which makes the number of beneficiaries twice as many as registered taxpayers.

    Meanwhile, crime has proliferated. The once flourishing central business district is an eyesore where derelict buildings are hijacked by criminal syndicates, forcing out major commercial operations from the area. For more petty criminals, in vogue are cables and metals that can be stolen from electricity substations and sold on the black market. Others just try to connect to the grid illegally.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-06-16/south-africa-s-crime-chaos-and-corruption-make-it-look-like-a-failed-state

    On the other hand, they have a really good, well-integrated rugby team

    More tragic than 'awkward', I'd have thought. Unless it's being advanced (by you?) as proof that blacks need whitey to boss them about and run their affairs. Which would be pretty moronic, obviously, and a teeny bit racist to boot.
    Well it's tragic that SA is disintegrating and thousands of people a year are being murdered. But it's certainly awkward that the Afrikaaners perhaps had a point about the ANC. Because it's certainly not the side of the argument I'd rather be on.
    What point did they have about bla ... about the ANC?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    One of the most awkward of modern political facts: South Africa is turning into the failed African state predicted by the white Afrikaaner opponents of reform at the End of Apartheid. Everything they said would come true, is coming true. Chaos, crime, corruption. It will soon break down altogether, on its present trajectory


    “Almost half of the population is unemployed and living in poverty. Nationwide, the jobless rate stands at 32.9%. Around 18 million people rely on some form of social aid, which makes the number of beneficiaries twice as many as registered taxpayers.

    Meanwhile, crime has proliferated. The once flourishing central business district is an eyesore where derelict buildings are hijacked by criminal syndicates, forcing out major commercial operations from the area. For more petty criminals, in vogue are cables and metals that can be stolen from electricity substations and sold on the black market. Others just try to connect to the grid illegally.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-06-16/south-africa-s-crime-chaos-and-corruption-make-it-look-like-a-failed-state

    On the other hand, they have a really good, well-integrated rugby team

    More tragic than 'awkward', I'd have thought. Unless it's being advanced (by you?) as proof that blacks need whitey to boss them about and run their affairs. Which would be pretty moronic, obviously, and a teeny bit racist to boot.
    Well it's tragic that SA is disintegrating and thousands of people a year are being murdered. But it's certainly awkward that the Afrikaaners perhaps had a point about the ANC.
    I am as guilty of ignoring this as anyone. Apartheid was an evil system that had to end, and I have been blithely presuming that -albeit with some grave problems - the country was making decent progress, GDP growth was slowly spreading wealth, crime was bad but not terrible

    Then the white South African manager of a posh hotel in Cambodia sat me down - two weeks ago - and told me the truth over drinks. He was nearly in tears. He isn’t some gloating Boer, he is clearly a Saffer patriot - with lots of family there. But he says they are ALL intending to leave, he never wants to go back. He says every single person he knows has either personal or direct second hand (ie close family or friend) experience of truly horrible violent crime
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,386
    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    The stats coming out of South Africa are mind boggling


    In 2022-23 the UK endured about 660 homicides

    In the 2nd quarter of 2023 - ie in just 3 months - South Africa endured 7,000 murders, and 13,000 sexual assaults - those are the ones recorded by police

    “The police also recorded 6 009 hijackings, 6 045 robberies at residential properties and 4 910 robberies at non-residential premises.”

    https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/parliament/crime-stats-close-to-7000-south-africans-murdered-in-three-months-13-000-sexually-assaulted-20231117

    This is a major state on the brink of failure, yet how often is it mentioned?

    There's a guy, I think, who writes periodically about this on, I think, Unherd.

    But yes, it's interesting how seldom it's mentioned. Is it because we have mentally placed SA in a box marked 'third world' and just expect it to be terrible? Or is it because we all tacitly agreed that apartheid was so bad that whatever replaced it had to work and we just don't want to know that it didn't?
    It worked to end apartheid.
    Well yes. And I would think that yer average South African is as a result better off today than in 1989. But it's not 100% obvious that if that is the case that it will still be the case next year.

    Thing is, was there any other option? Was there any way of ending apartheid without handing power to an organisation which seems both corrupt and criminal? Was failure just baked in to post-apartheid South Africa?
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,386
    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    One of the most awkward of modern political facts: South Africa is turning into the failed African state predicted by the white Afrikaaner opponents of reform at the End of Apartheid. Everything they said would come true, is coming true. Chaos, crime, corruption. It will soon break down altogether, on its present trajectory


    “Almost half of the population is unemployed and living in poverty. Nationwide, the jobless rate stands at 32.9%. Around 18 million people rely on some form of social aid, which makes the number of beneficiaries twice as many as registered taxpayers.

    Meanwhile, crime has proliferated. The once flourishing central business district is an eyesore where derelict buildings are hijacked by criminal syndicates, forcing out major commercial operations from the area. For more petty criminals, in vogue are cables and metals that can be stolen from electricity substations and sold on the black market. Others just try to connect to the grid illegally.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-06-16/south-africa-s-crime-chaos-and-corruption-make-it-look-like-a-failed-state

    On the other hand, they have a really good, well-integrated rugby team

    More tragic than 'awkward', I'd have thought. Unless it's being advanced (by you?) as proof that blacks need whitey to boss them about and run their affairs. Which would be pretty moronic, obviously, and a teeny bit racist to boot.
    Well it's tragic that SA is disintegrating and thousands of people a year are being murdered. But it's certainly awkward that the Afrikaaners perhaps had a point about the ANC. Because it's certainly not the side of the argument I'd rather be on.
    What point did they have about bla ... about the ANC?
    That they were both criminal and corrupt and would end up foisting a Mugabe on the country.
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,939

    At 12pm today I plucked up the courage to phone Gamblers Anonymous.

    They told me to call back at 20/1.

    Taxi!
  • Options
    The only news I’ve seen, from South Africa, in recent months is the Oscar Pitorius case, the celebrations over the rugby, and SA support for Palestine

    No major news service, that I can recall, is offering the fairly relevant info that SA is on the brink of total collapse into criminal anarchy, with widespread power cuts, business chaos, crumbling infra, water shortages, and so on. Yet the briefest search of Google news shows this is the case

    It is going the same way as Zimbabwe, as the Afrikaaner racists predicted
    I listened to this on SA recently: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0glwppy Focuses on the cities. But, pretty good and covers the problems (and some of the folks trying to turn it round).
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    A headline from three days ago in the SA Biz Paper



    26 Nov 2023
    The days and times you’re most at risk of being hijacked in South Africa


    https://businesstech.co.za/news/lifestyle/731043/the-days-and-times-youre-most-likely-to-be-hijacked-in-south-africa/

    That is apocalyptic stuff

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    One of the most awkward of modern political facts: South Africa is turning into the failed African state predicted by the white Afrikaaner opponents of reform at the End of Apartheid. Everything they said would come true, is coming true. Chaos, crime, corruption. It will soon break down altogether, on its present trajectory


    “Almost half of the population is unemployed and living in poverty. Nationwide, the jobless rate stands at 32.9%. Around 18 million people rely on some form of social aid, which makes the number of beneficiaries twice as many as registered taxpayers.

    Meanwhile, crime has proliferated. The once flourishing central business district is an eyesore where derelict buildings are hijacked by criminal syndicates, forcing out major commercial operations from the area. For more petty criminals, in vogue are cables and metals that can be stolen from electricity substations and sold on the black market. Others just try to connect to the grid illegally.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-06-16/south-africa-s-crime-chaos-and-corruption-make-it-look-like-a-failed-state

    On the other hand, they have a really good, well-integrated rugby team

    More tragic than 'awkward', I'd have thought. Unless it's being advanced (by you?) as proof that blacks need whitey to boss them about and run their affairs. Which would be pretty moronic, obviously, and a teeny bit racist to boot.
    Well it's tragic that SA is disintegrating and thousands of people a year are being murdered. But it's certainly awkward that the Afrikaaners perhaps had a point about the ANC.
    I am as guilty of ignoring this as anyone. Apartheid was an evil system that had to end, and I have been blithely presuming that -albeit with some grave problems - the country was making decent progress, GDP growth was slowly spreading wealth, crime was bad but not terrible

    Then the white South African manager of a posh hotel in Cambodia sat me down - two weeks ago - and told me the truth over drinks. He was nearly in tears. He isn’t some gloating Boer, he is clearly a Saffer patriot - with lots of family there. But he says they are ALL intending to leave, he never wants to go back. He says every single person he knows has either personal or direct second hand (ie close family or friend) experience of truly horrible violent crime
    The Sandpit Saffas were saying this a decade ago. Horrific robberies, murders for watches and wallets, people employing their own armed guards around housing estates, and even personal transport security, all seen as normal. Since then, things have only gone downhill fast.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,504
    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    The stats coming out of South Africa are mind boggling


    In 2022-23 the UK endured about 660 homicides

    In the 2nd quarter of 2023 - ie in just 3 months - South Africa endured 7,000 murders, and 13,000 sexual assaults - those are the ones recorded by police

    “The police also recorded 6 009 hijackings, 6 045 robberies at residential properties and 4 910 robberies at non-residential premises.”

    https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/parliament/crime-stats-close-to-7000-south-africans-murdered-in-three-months-13-000-sexually-assaulted-20231117

    This is a major state on the brink of failure, yet how often is it mentioned?

    There's a guy, I think, who writes periodically about this on, I think, Unherd.

    But yes, it's interesting how seldom it's mentioned. Is it because we have mentally placed SA in a box marked 'third world' and just expect it to be terrible? Or is it because we all tacitly agreed that apartheid was so bad that whatever replaced it had to work and we just don't want to know that it didn't?
    It worked to end apartheid.
    Well yes. And I would think that yer average South African is as a result better off today than in 1989. But it's not 100% obvious that if that is the case that it will still be the case next year.

    Thing is, was there any other option? Was there any way of ending apartheid without handing power to an organisation which seems both corrupt and criminal? Was failure just baked in to post-apartheid South Africa?
    Opposing views can't both be right but can both be wrong. Maybe that's where we are in SA, as many feel about Israel and Palestine.

    In SA two things have to be distinguished: The fundamental decency of One Person One Vote, and a legal infrastructure not built around segregation and inferiority; secondly, what populations and voters and politicos do with these things once they have them.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 3,909
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    One of the most awkward of modern political facts: South Africa is turning into the failed African state predicted by the white Afrikaaner opponents of reform at the End of Apartheid. Everything they said would come true, is coming true. Chaos, crime, corruption. It will soon break down altogether, on its present trajectory


    “Almost half of the population is unemployed and living in poverty. Nationwide, the jobless rate stands at 32.9%. Around 18 million people rely on some form of social aid, which makes the number of beneficiaries twice as many as registered taxpayers.

    Meanwhile, crime has proliferated. The once flourishing central business district is an eyesore where derelict buildings are hijacked by criminal syndicates, forcing out major commercial operations from the area. For more petty criminals, in vogue are cables and metals that can be stolen from electricity substations and sold on the black market. Others just try to connect to the grid illegally.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-06-16/south-africa-s-crime-chaos-and-corruption-make-it-look-like-a-failed-state

    On the other hand, they have a really good, well-integrated rugby team

    IMHO, the best hope for that country is if the Western Cape, which has a competent government, effectively secedes.
    I bored (or even Boered) my South African friends for decades that the Cape needed to declare UDI and make itself a Switzerland of the southern hemisphere. Perfect time zone for business, at the time a solid well educated population and an alternative for the “global south” to use if they objected to dealing with the pesky West. They would never accept there would be any need for it to happen.

    It’s sad though as it’s my most visited country after France (which doesn’t really count for many reasons) and is one of the most beautiful countries on earth.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474
    TimS said:

    Yet still doesn’t have anywhere near the salience of Hillsborough, Stephen Lawrence, the Maxwell pensions, Windrush, Catholic child abuse etc.

    As discussed here before it’s the anonymity and geographically dispersed nature of the victims that makes it so.

    If anything, it ought to receive more notice than any of those, as it involves, as Cyclefree notes, a fundamental problem with the general working of the criminal justice system in relation to computer evidence.

    And even if every Post Office victim is properly compensated (which seems unlikely) that problem remains unaddressed, and is likely to lead to further miscarriages.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    One of the most awkward of modern political facts: South Africa is turning into the failed African state predicted by the white Afrikaaner opponents of reform at the End of Apartheid. Everything they said would come true, is coming true. Chaos, crime, corruption. It will soon break down altogether, on its present trajectory


    “Almost half of the population is unemployed and living in poverty. Nationwide, the jobless rate stands at 32.9%. Around 18 million people rely on some form of social aid, which makes the number of beneficiaries twice as many as registered taxpayers.

    Meanwhile, crime has proliferated. The once flourishing central business district is an eyesore where derelict buildings are hijacked by criminal syndicates, forcing out major commercial operations from the area. For more petty criminals, in vogue are cables and metals that can be stolen from electricity substations and sold on the black market. Others just try to connect to the grid illegally.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-06-16/south-africa-s-crime-chaos-and-corruption-make-it-look-like-a-failed-state

    On the other hand, they have a really good, well-integrated rugby team

    More tragic than 'awkward', I'd have thought. Unless it's being advanced (by you?) as proof that blacks need whitey to boss them about and run their affairs. Which would be pretty moronic, obviously, and a teeny bit racist to boot.
    Well it's tragic that SA is disintegrating and thousands of people a year are being murdered. But it's certainly awkward that the Afrikaaners perhaps had a point about the ANC.
    I am as guilty of ignoring this as anyone. Apartheid was an evil system that had to end, and I have been blithely presuming that -albeit with some grave problems - the country was making decent progress, GDP growth was slowly spreading wealth, crime was bad but not terrible

    Then the white South African manager of a posh hotel in Cambodia sat me down - two weeks ago - and told me the truth over drinks. He was nearly in tears. He isn’t some gloating Boer, he is clearly a Saffer patriot - with lots of family there. But he says they are ALL intending to leave, he never wants to go back. He says every single person he knows has either personal or direct second hand (ie close family or friend) experience of truly horrible violent crime
    The Sandpit Saffas were saying this a decade ago. Horrific robberies, murders for watches and wallets, people employing their own armed guards around housing estates, and even personal transport security, all seen as normal. Since then, things have only gone downhill fast.
    Weirdly, it seems to be even worse than the rest of Southern Africa. Ie Zambia, Namibia, Botswana, perhaps even Zimbabwe - I have visited them all in the last decade or so yet they don’t have these appalling issues on quite such a scale. Or so it seemed to me (maybe I was insulated as a flint knapping journalist concentrating on limestone etc)
  • Options
    ClippPClippP Posts: 1,684
    Leon said:

    The stats coming out of South Africa are mind boggling


    In 2022-23 the UK endured about 660 homicides

    In the 2nd quarter of 2023 - ie in just 3 months - South Africa endured 7,000 murders, and 13,000 sexual assaults - those are the ones recorded by police

    “The police also recorded 6 009 hijackings, 6 045 robberies at residential properties and 4 910 robberies at non-residential premises.”

    https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/parliament/crime-stats-close-to-7000-south-africans-murdered-in-three-months-13-000-sexually-assaulted-20231117

    This is a major state on the brink of failure, yet how often is it mentioned?

    The year before we dcided to abolish the death penalty, there were 103 murders in the UK, most of them within the family. Why is the figure so high now?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    At 12pm today I plucked up the courage to phone Gamblers Anonymous.

    They told me to call back at 20/1.

    I admit it, I CHAWGAT'ed..... or was it AMALCUMB'ed?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    ClippP said:

    Leon said:

    The stats coming out of South Africa are mind boggling


    In 2022-23 the UK endured about 660 homicides

    In the 2nd quarter of 2023 - ie in just 3 months - South Africa endured 7,000 murders, and 13,000 sexual assaults - those are the ones recorded by police

    “The police also recorded 6 009 hijackings, 6 045 robberies at residential properties and 4 910 robberies at non-residential premises.”

    https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/parliament/crime-stats-close-to-7000-south-africans-murdered-in-three-months-13-000-sexually-assaulted-20231117

    This is a major state on the brink of failure, yet how often is it mentioned?

    The year before we dcided to abolish the death penalty, there were 103 murders in the UK, most of them within the family. Why is the figure so high now?
    Leaded petrol?
  • Options
    Kaboom.

    For the first time, Labour leads the SNP in our Westminster VI poll.

    Scotland Westminster VI (26-27 November):

    Labour 36% (+4)
    SNP 34% (+2)
    Conservative 17% (-6)
    Lib Dem 6% (-2)
    Reform 3% (+1)
    Green 2% (–)
    Other 0% (-1)


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1729908084368130108
  • Options
    'No' leads by 2 points.

    Scotland Independence Referendum Voting Intention (26-27 November):

    No 48% (-2)
    Yes 46% (+1)
    Don't Know 6% (+1)

    Changes +/- 29-30 October

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1729909413023027607
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    ClippP said:

    Leon said:

    The stats coming out of South Africa are mind boggling


    In 2022-23 the UK endured about 660 homicides

    In the 2nd quarter of 2023 - ie in just 3 months - South Africa endured 7,000 murders, and 13,000 sexual assaults - those are the ones recorded by police

    “The police also recorded 6 009 hijackings, 6 045 robberies at residential properties and 4 910 robberies at non-residential premises.”

    https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/parliament/crime-stats-close-to-7000-south-africans-murdered-in-three-months-13-000-sexually-assaulted-20231117

    This is a major state on the brink of failure, yet how often is it mentioned?

    The year before we dcided to abolish the death penalty, there were 103 murders in the UK, most of them within the family. Why is the figure so high now?
    Britain from about 1910-1960 was one of the most law abiding nations on earth, I believe. It really was a peaceful society of unlocked doors and widespread trust. More like contemporary Japan or Singapore

    Several things have changed. Less respect for authority, migration leading to less societal trust, the influence of violent media, esp from the USA?

    However it’s important to note that Britain was much more violent in the more distant past. Victorian Britain could be pretty brutal and medieval England had a notably high homicide rate compared to now - the murder rate was 60 times higher then, than now

    https://www.popsci.com/science/england-medieval-murder-map/
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,386
    Leon said:

    A headline from three days ago in the SA Biz Paper



    26 Nov 2023
    The days and times you’re most at risk of being hijacked in South Africa


    https://businesstech.co.za/news/lifestyle/731043/the-days-and-times-youre-most-likely-to-be-hijacked-in-south-africa/

    That is apocalyptic stuff

    Brian Pottinger. That's the name I was trying to remember: https://unherd.com/2023/06/south-africas-infinite-humiliation/
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,449
    edited November 2023
    Good early evening everyone.

    We were peripherally debating the Fuel Duty Freeze this morning. From the Treasury Select Committee this afternoon:

    Q: Will you put up fuel duty next year? Your plans assume it will go up, but if it gets frozen again, as usually happens, then you have lost half of your fiscal headroom.

    Hunt says this will be announced next year.

    Q: Isn’t it a mistake to make plans on the basis of tax rises that will never happen?

    Hunt insists that the freeze in the fuel duty rise is a temporary measure, not a permanent one.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2023/nov/29/theresa-may-criticise-rishi-sunak-oil-gas-licences-north-sea-green-policy-covid-inquiry-uk-politics-latest?page=with:block-65675b1e8f087816ab20acfc#block-65675b1e8f087816ab20acfc

    Hmmm. Half his fiscal headroom.
  • Options
    ClippP said:

    Leon said:

    The stats coming out of South Africa are mind boggling


    In 2022-23 the UK endured about 660 homicides

    In the 2nd quarter of 2023 - ie in just 3 months - South Africa endured 7,000 murders, and 13,000 sexual assaults - those are the ones recorded by police

    “The police also recorded 6 009 hijackings, 6 045 robberies at residential properties and 4 910 robberies at non-residential premises.”

    https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/parliament/crime-stats-close-to-7000-south-africans-murdered-in-three-months-13-000-sexually-assaulted-20231117

    This is a major state on the brink of failure, yet how often is it mentioned?

    The year before we dcided to abolish the death penalty, there were 103 murders in the UK, most of them within the family. Why is the figure so high now?
    You're comparing apples and oranges as not all homicides are murders. The homicide rate has increased a bit since the 1960s but not much (and has been trending downwards in recent decades).
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474
    What a shame.

    confirmation that another Russian general, Major General Vladimir Zavadsky, was killed in Ukraine: in fighting on the Dnipro's left bank, in Kherson. He's at least the 10th general to have been killed in the war. (?). Unconfirmed reports say he may have stepped on a land mine.
    https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1729894945912168720
  • Options

    ClippP said:

    Leon said:

    The stats coming out of South Africa are mind boggling


    In 2022-23 the UK endured about 660 homicides

    In the 2nd quarter of 2023 - ie in just 3 months - South Africa endured 7,000 murders, and 13,000 sexual assaults - those are the ones recorded by police

    “The police also recorded 6 009 hijackings, 6 045 robberies at residential properties and 4 910 robberies at non-residential premises.”

    https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/parliament/crime-stats-close-to-7000-south-africans-murdered-in-three-months-13-000-sexually-assaulted-20231117

    This is a major state on the brink of failure, yet how often is it mentioned?

    The year before we dcided to abolish the death penalty, there were 103 murders in the UK, most of them within the family. Why is the figure so high now?
    You're comparing apples and oranges as not all homicides are murders. The homicide rate has increased a bit since the 1960s but not much (and has been trending downwards in recent decades).
    I fear the decline in homicides owes more to the skills of our medics than efficacy of our justice system.
  • Options
    PhilPhil Posts: 1,936
    ClippP said:

    Leon said:

    The stats coming out of South Africa are mind boggling


    In 2022-23 the UK endured about 660 homicides

    In the 2nd quarter of 2023 - ie in just 3 months - South Africa endured 7,000 murders, and 13,000 sexual assaults - those are the ones recorded by police

    “The police also recorded 6 009 hijackings, 6 045 robberies at residential properties and 4 910 robberies at non-residential premises.”

    https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/parliament/crime-stats-close-to-7000-south-africans-murdered-in-three-months-13-000-sexually-assaulted-20231117

    This is a major state on the brink of failure, yet how often is it mentioned?

    The year before we dcided to abolish the death penalty, there were 103 murders in the UK, most of them within the family. Why is the figure so high now?
    Some analysis here: https://fullfact.org/news/has-murder-rate-doubled-hanging-was-abolished/

    Which suggests the disparity is not as bad as the raw figures suggest, due to population growth & reclassification of what counts as a homicide.

    IIRC in particular, back in the 60s a multiple murder counted as a single “event” for statistical purposes, but in 1997 that changed so that every single death was counted individually. After correction for these effects & population growth it seems that the murder rate has roughly doubled since the 1960s.

    Which is a little surprising, given the availability of guns & the much poorer quality of emergency medical care between the two periods. It does seem that society has become more violent based on this data.
  • Options
    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,137

    Kaboom.

    For the first time, Labour leads the SNP in our Westminster VI poll.

    Scotland Westminster VI (26-27 November):

    Labour 36% (+4)
    SNP 34% (+2)
    Conservative 17% (-6)
    Lib Dem 6% (-2)
    Reform 3% (+1)
    Green 2% (–)
    Other 0% (-1)


    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1729908084368130108

    Tin hats on for the evening shift, then.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,449
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    PMQs summary for the 99.9% who don't watch it. Poor old Rishi, taken to the cleaners by an increasingly confident Starmer.
    The PM is a dead man walking, and I've no idea how he can turn it around.

    Starmer's Midas quip was even borderline funny, which is a first from him.
    The quip itself was mildly amusing; the follow-up aimed at Cleverly was ROFL good.
    It wasn’t, tho, was it?

    You weren’t actually “rolling on the floor laughing” at a joke by Sir Kir Royale

    I doubt if anyone has ever rolled on the floor laughing at a joke by anyone, let alone Sir Royale

    The closest I have come is being doubled over with laughter at an early Eddie Izzard gig (when he was so so good), when I laughed so much it genuinely hurt, even then I didn’t actually collapse to the ground and roll around in agony like I had some fucking kidney stone, you stupid fucking twat
    No, I wasn't actually ROFL, you are right. It was an exaggeration for emphasis: not something you would ever consider, even when smashed off your box on Thai gin.
    We need some more nuanced British acronyms for stages of laughter. AMALCUMB (allowed myself a little chuckle under my breath) perhaps, or CHAWGAT (couldn’t help a wry grin at that).
    Bring back ROFLCOPTER.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,937
    Sadly, it looks as though it's kicking off between Venezuela and Guyana.

    https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1729908895479431596

    Poor Guyana.

    (Venezuela claims a vast portion of Guyana, in which a *lot* of oil has recently been found. Venezuela was due to hold a referendum on Sunday to reinforce their claim (in Venezuela, of course...)

    Basically, it's an authoritarian regime trying to grab oil-rich lands.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    South Africa should just ask the Chinese to come in and rule everything. Hard
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474
    MattW said:

    Good early evening everyone.

    We were peripherally debating the Fuel Duty Freeze this morning. From the Treasury Select Committee this afternoon:

    Q: Will you put up fuel duty next year? Your plans assume it will go up, but if it gets frozen again, as usually happens, then you have lost half of your fiscal headroom.

    Hunt says this will be announced next year.

    Q: Isn’t it a mistake to make plans on the basis of tax rises that will never happen?

    Hunt insists that the freeze in the fuel duty rise is a temporary measure, not a permanent one.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2023/nov/29/theresa-may-criticise-rishi-sunak-oil-gas-licences-north-sea-green-policy-covid-inquiry-uk-politics-latest?page=with:block-65675b1e8f087816ab20acfc#block-65675b1e8f087816ab20acfc

    Hmmm. Half his fiscal headroom.

    The point has been made several times, but bears repetition.
    The credibility of Hunt's fiscal plans depends upon the assumption that the winner of the next election will engage in serious austerity - particularly as far as departmental sending is concerned.

    He's basically putting off the tough choices for the next government to make.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474
    Yet another.

    Nikolay Vasev (42), senior vice-president of Russia’s leading bank “Sber” dies of heart attack.
    https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1729135949215576121
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554
    Well I arrived safe (and sober), the lack of screw seemingly not fatal.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474
    You couldn’t make it up

    Bill to ban leaseholds doesn’t ban leaseholds, ministers admit

    https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1729880146960961716
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,706
    edited November 2023
    ClippP said:

    Leon said:

    The stats coming out of South Africa are mind boggling


    In 2022-23 the UK endured about 660 homicides

    In the 2nd quarter of 2023 - ie in just 3 months - South Africa endured 7,000 murders, and 13,000 sexual assaults - those are the ones recorded by police

    “The police also recorded 6 009 hijackings, 6 045 robberies at residential properties and 4 910 robberies at non-residential premises.”

    https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/parliament/crime-stats-close-to-7000-south-africans-murdered-in-three-months-13-000-sexually-assaulted-20231117

    This is a major state on the brink of failure, yet how often is it mentioned?

    The year before we dcided to abolish the death penalty, there were 103 murders in the UK, most of them within the family. Why is the figure so high now?
    More people means more people getting Clipp'D.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,939
    McCrossover
  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    You couldn’t make it up

    Bill to ban leaseholds doesn’t ban leaseholds, ministers admit

    https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1729880146960961716

    Does this make them banning leaseholds more or less likely though?

    If it was in the bill they would surely have had time for the obligatory u-turn before implementation. Now, it could go either way.
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,939
    Nigelb said:

    You couldn’t make it up

    Bill to ban leaseholds doesn’t ban leaseholds, ministers admit

    https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1729880146960961716

    Gove has done decent work on Leasehold. Far more than the loathsome Jenrick, or any other predecessor. Ending of ground rent, 990 year extensions by default, abolition of marriage value.

    Not great, but it's a good start.

    Leasehold houses may still be legally allowed to be sold, but after the huge amount of publicity in the last five years around "fleecehold" and unfair service charges, who would be mad enough to buy one?
  • Options
    Leon said:

    ClippP said:

    Leon said:

    The stats coming out of South Africa are mind boggling


    In 2022-23 the UK endured about 660 homicides

    In the 2nd quarter of 2023 - ie in just 3 months - South Africa endured 7,000 murders, and 13,000 sexual assaults - those are the ones recorded by police

    “The police also recorded 6 009 hijackings, 6 045 robberies at residential properties and 4 910 robberies at non-residential premises.”

    https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/parliament/crime-stats-close-to-7000-south-africans-murdered-in-three-months-13-000-sexually-assaulted-20231117

    This is a major state on the brink of failure, yet how often is it mentioned?

    The year before we dcided to abolish the death penalty, there were 103 murders in the UK, most of them within the family. Why is the figure so high now?
    Britain from about 1910-1960 was one of the most law abiding nations on earth, I believe. It really was a peaceful society of unlocked doors and widespread trust. More like contemporary Japan or Singapore

    Several things have changed. Less respect for authority, migration leading to less societal trust, the influence of violent media, esp from the USA?

    However it’s important to note that Britain was much more violent in the more distant past. Victorian Britain could be pretty brutal and medieval England had a notably high homicide rate compared to now - the murder rate was 60 times higher then, than now

    https://www.popsci.com/science/england-medieval-murder-map/
    On the positive side, at least it meant Brother Cadfael had a thriving business and was never short of a nice cassock.

    A difficulty with your line of argument is that the very things you use to explain higher crime now compared with (say) 1910 fall apart when you set the baseline as 1300. Why did they have much higher rates of violent crime than today - was there less respect for authority in a feudal society? Was there a lot of migration or did people tend not to migrate more than a hundred yards from their place of birth? Were the monasteries churning out a lot of violent media (I suppose the Bible is a bit gory in places but still)?

    I'm being a bit flippant, of course, but it does illustrate the problem of picking two arbitrary dates and looking for differences to explain the difference in a measured statistic. If you change one of the dates, your cherry-picked explanations often fall apart.

  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,161
    edited November 2023
    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    The stats coming out of South Africa are mind boggling


    In 2022-23 the UK endured about 660 homicides

    In the 2nd quarter of 2023 - ie in just 3 months - South Africa endured 7,000 murders, and 13,000 sexual assaults - those are the ones recorded by police

    “The police also recorded 6 009 hijackings, 6 045 robberies at residential properties and 4 910 robberies at non-residential premises.”

    https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/parliament/crime-stats-close-to-7000-south-africans-murdered-in-three-months-13-000-sexually-assaulted-20231117

    This is a major state on the brink of failure, yet how often is it mentioned?

    There's a guy, I think, who writes periodically about this on, I think, Unherd.

    But yes, it's interesting how seldom it's mentioned. Is it because we have mentally placed SA in a box marked 'third world' and just expect it to be terrible? Or is it because we all tacitly agreed that apartheid was so bad that whatever replaced it had to work and we just don't want to know that it didn't?
    It worked to end apartheid.
    Well yes. And I would think that yer average South African is as a result better off today than in 1989. But it's not 100% obvious that if that is the case that it will still be the case next year.

    Thing is, was there any other option? Was there any way of ending apartheid without handing power to an organisation which seems both corrupt and criminal? Was failure just baked in to post-apartheid South Africa?
    The perils of one party rule is probably one thing it shows. Corruption often thrives in such places. But no, I wouldn't say it was at all inevitable that the country would be in a parlous state 30 years later. As I said it's rather tragic if that's the case.

    Lessons? I don't know apart from the obvious one of don't go for apartheid if you want a free and prosperous country. It won't just preclude that while it's in place it could also be a devil to shrug off once it's lifted.
  • Options
    eek said:

    Manifesto policies we can all get behind

    Count Binface
    @CountBinface
    Vote Count Binface and all shops that play Christmas music before December will be closed down and turned into public libraries

    Are shops that sell advent calendars allowed to play Christmas music in November?
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,119
    kyf_100 said:

    Nigelb said:

    You couldn’t make it up

    Bill to ban leaseholds doesn’t ban leaseholds, ministers admit

    https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1729880146960961716

    Gove has done decent work on Leasehold. Far more than the loathsome Jenrick, or any other predecessor. Ending of ground rent, 990 year extensions by default, abolition of marriage value.

    Not great, but it's a good start.

    Leasehold houses may still be legally allowed to be sold, but after the huge amount of publicity in the last five years around "fleecehold" and unfair service charges, who would be mad enough to buy one?
    Or a mug buying a house that is freehold but where there is a bit of shared land that the council has not adopted so they pay a ground rent for that.

    One of my Co workers is looking at a house on a new build estate which has a £101 a year ground rent for a shared space. Personally,I’d avoid like the plague.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,161

    At 12pm today I plucked up the courage to phone Gamblers Anonymous.

    They told me to call back at 20/1.

    Very good. Sounds like a Tommy Cooper.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993

    Leon said:

    ClippP said:

    Leon said:

    The stats coming out of South Africa are mind boggling


    In 2022-23 the UK endured about 660 homicides

    In the 2nd quarter of 2023 - ie in just 3 months - South Africa endured 7,000 murders, and 13,000 sexual assaults - those are the ones recorded by police

    “The police also recorded 6 009 hijackings, 6 045 robberies at residential properties and 4 910 robberies at non-residential premises.”

    https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/parliament/crime-stats-close-to-7000-south-africans-murdered-in-three-months-13-000-sexually-assaulted-20231117

    This is a major state on the brink of failure, yet how often is it mentioned?

    The year before we dcided to abolish the death penalty, there were 103 murders in the UK, most of them within the family. Why is the figure so high now?
    Britain from about 1910-1960 was one of the most law abiding nations on earth, I believe. It really was a peaceful society of unlocked doors and widespread trust. More like contemporary Japan or Singapore

    Several things have changed. Less respect for authority, migration leading to less societal trust, the influence of violent media, esp from the USA?

    However it’s important to note that Britain was much more violent in the more distant past. Victorian Britain could be pretty brutal and medieval England had a notably high homicide rate compared to now - the murder rate was 60 times higher then, than now

    https://www.popsci.com/science/england-medieval-murder-map/
    On the positive side, at least it meant Brother Cadfael had a thriving business and was never short of a nice cassock.

    A difficulty with your line of argument is that the very things you use to explain higher crime now compared with (say) 1910 fall apart when you set the baseline as 1300. Why did they have much higher rates of violent crime than today - was there less respect for authority in a feudal society? Was there a lot of migration or did people tend not to migrate more than a hundred yards from their place of birth? Were the monasteries churning out a lot of violent media (I suppose the Bible is a bit gory in places but still)?

    I'm being a bit flippant, of course, but it does illustrate the problem of picking two arbitrary dates and looking for differences to explain the difference in a measured statistic. If you change one of the dates, your cherry-picked explanations often fall apart.

    Yes, I don’t deny it is complex. Crime - low or high - is one of the hardest things to explain

    That said, it is a bit like litter. In litter free places, it is much harder to litter as it seems and feels and IS so much more conspicuous. If everyone litters, who cares, chuck it anywhere; same for crime

    I firmly believe in the broken windows theory. Clamp down on petty things like litter, graffiti, vandalism, social annoyance, and eventually you impact the bigger things like violent crime and corruption

    I also reckon that, in the end, high crime societies heading for collapse will choose the El Salvador approach. Build huge prisons, lock up anyone remotely dodgy, fuck human rights. It’s not pretty but it seems to work and it is better than murderous anarchy




  • Options
    kyf_100 said:

    Nigelb said:

    You couldn’t make it up

    Bill to ban leaseholds doesn’t ban leaseholds, ministers admit

    https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1729880146960961716

    Gove has done decent work on Leasehold. Far more than the loathsome Jenrick, or any other predecessor. Ending of ground rent, 990 year extensions by default, abolition of marriage value.

    Not great, but it's a good start.

    Leasehold houses may still be legally allowed to be sold, but after the huge amount of publicity in the last five years around "fleecehold" and unfair service charges, who would be mad enough to buy one?
    Talks a good game at times, but doesn't deliver.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,161
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    One of the most awkward of modern political facts: South Africa is turning into the failed African state predicted by the white Afrikaaner opponents of reform at the End of Apartheid. Everything they said would come true, is coming true. Chaos, crime, corruption. It will soon break down altogether, on its present trajectory


    “Almost half of the population is unemployed and living in poverty. Nationwide, the jobless rate stands at 32.9%. Around 18 million people rely on some form of social aid, which makes the number of beneficiaries twice as many as registered taxpayers.

    Meanwhile, crime has proliferated. The once flourishing central business district is an eyesore where derelict buildings are hijacked by criminal syndicates, forcing out major commercial operations from the area. For more petty criminals, in vogue are cables and metals that can be stolen from electricity substations and sold on the black market. Others just try to connect to the grid illegally.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-06-16/south-africa-s-crime-chaos-and-corruption-make-it-look-like-a-failed-state

    On the other hand, they have a really good, well-integrated rugby team

    More tragic than 'awkward', I'd have thought. Unless it's being advanced (by you?) as proof that blacks need whitey to boss them about and run their affairs. Which would be pretty moronic, obviously, and a teeny bit racist to boot.
    Well it's tragic that SA is disintegrating and thousands of people a year are being murdered. But it's certainly awkward that the Afrikaaners perhaps had a point about the ANC.
    I am as guilty of ignoring this as anyone. Apartheid was an evil system that had to end, and I have been blithely presuming that -albeit with some grave problems - the country was making decent progress, GDP growth was slowly spreading wealth, crime was bad but not terrible

    Then the white South African manager of a posh hotel in Cambodia sat me down - two weeks ago - and told me the truth over drinks. He was nearly in tears. He isn’t some gloating Boer, he is clearly a Saffer patriot - with lots of family there. But he says they are ALL intending to leave, he never wants to go back. He says every single person he knows has either personal or direct second hand (ie close family or friend) experience of truly horrible violent crime
    The Sandpit Saffas were saying this a decade ago. Horrific robberies, murders for watches and wallets, people employing their own armed guards around housing estates, and even personal transport security, all seen as normal. Since then, things have only gone downhill fast.
    Do you find much racism amongst the Sandpit Saffas?
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,530
    Leon said:

    The stats coming out of South Africa are mind boggling


    In 2022-23 the UK endured about 660 homicides

    In the 2nd quarter of 2023 - ie in just 3 months - South Africa endured 7,000 murders, and 13,000 sexual assaults - those are the ones recorded by police

    “The police also recorded 6 009 hijackings, 6 045 robberies at residential properties and 4 910 robberies at non-residential premises.”

    https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/parliament/crime-stats-close-to-7000-south-africans-murdered-in-three-months-13-000-sexually-assaulted-20231117

    This is a major state on the brink of failure, yet how often is it mentioned?

    A British tourist was murdered a few months ago after turning the wrong way out of Cape Town airport.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,161
    TimS said:

    Well I arrived safe (and sober), the lack of screw seemingly not fatal.

    Very quick! Couldn't you have walked?
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,554
    TimS said:

    Well I arrived safe (and sober), the lack of screw seemingly not fatal.

    Lyon St Exupery airport is a delight by the way, unless you arrive between new year and Easter. Essentially built to accommodate two groups: a gentle flow of business travellers year round, and hordes of EasyJet passengers heading for the ski slopes on season.

    As most people who live here tend to drive south on holiday there are few flights to holiday destinations.

    The result is an incredibly efficient and pleasant airport out of season. I landed at 6.25 and was on a shuttle to car hire by 6.40. E-gates with a stamper after, who gave my passport a cursory look.
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,939

    kyf_100 said:

    Nigelb said:

    You couldn’t make it up

    Bill to ban leaseholds doesn’t ban leaseholds, ministers admit

    https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1729880146960961716

    Gove has done decent work on Leasehold. Far more than the loathsome Jenrick, or any other predecessor. Ending of ground rent, 990 year extensions by default, abolition of marriage value.

    Not great, but it's a good start.

    Leasehold houses may still be legally allowed to be sold, but after the huge amount of publicity in the last five years around "fleecehold" and unfair service charges, who would be mad enough to buy one?
    Talks a good game at times, but doesn't deliver.
    On the subject of leasehold, Gove has done a great deal more than any of his predecessors. Assuming the reforms are made law, it's a huge step forward, (after, er, zero steps forward by *any* of his predecessors) albeit not as much as we'd all like.

    Considering the entrenched interests against any kind of reform at all (many of them Tory donors), it's a win for Gove, and makes me think better of him.
  • Options
    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Nigelb said:

    You couldn’t make it up

    Bill to ban leaseholds doesn’t ban leaseholds, ministers admit

    https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1729880146960961716

    Gove has done decent work on Leasehold. Far more than the loathsome Jenrick, or any other predecessor. Ending of ground rent, 990 year extensions by default, abolition of marriage value.

    Not great, but it's a good start.

    Leasehold houses may still be legally allowed to be sold, but after the huge amount of publicity in the last five years around "fleecehold" and unfair service charges, who would be mad enough to buy one?
    Talks a good game at times, but doesn't deliver.
    On the subject of leasehold, Gove has done a great deal more than any of his predecessors. Assuming the reforms are made law, it's a huge step forward, (after, er, zero steps forward by *any* of his predecessors) albeit not as much as we'd all like.

    Considering the entrenched interests against any kind of reform at all (many of them Tory donors), it's a win for Gove, and makes me think better of him.
    I suspect in a Thatcher or Major type government he might have been quite good. Under the likes of Boris, Truss and Sunak all he does is talk but fail to deliver. I mean yes that is better than Williamson, Braverman, Shapps, Jenrick etc but equally kind of pointless.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,161
    Ah eureka moment! South Africa's problems are not reported because an African country struggling after ending white supremacy rule is an inconvenient truth for the woke left who control the media narrative in the west. Oh my giddy aunt I'm slow.
  • Options
    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    One of the most awkward of modern political facts: South Africa is turning into the failed African state predicted by the white Afrikaaner opponents of reform at the End of Apartheid. Everything they said would come true, is coming true. Chaos, crime, corruption. It will soon break down altogether, on its present trajectory


    “Almost half of the population is unemployed and living in poverty. Nationwide, the jobless rate stands at 32.9%. Around 18 million people rely on some form of social aid, which makes the number of beneficiaries twice as many as registered taxpayers.

    Meanwhile, crime has proliferated. The once flourishing central business district is an eyesore where derelict buildings are hijacked by criminal syndicates, forcing out major commercial operations from the area. For more petty criminals, in vogue are cables and metals that can be stolen from electricity substations and sold on the black market. Others just try to connect to the grid illegally.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-06-16/south-africa-s-crime-chaos-and-corruption-make-it-look-like-a-failed-state

    On the other hand, they have a really good, well-integrated rugby team

    More tragic than 'awkward', I'd have thought. Unless it's being advanced (by you?) as proof that blacks need whitey to boss them about and run their affairs. Which would be pretty moronic, obviously, and a teeny bit racist to boot.
    Well it's tragic that SA is disintegrating and thousands of people a year are being murdered. But it's certainly awkward that the Afrikaaners perhaps had a point about the ANC.
    I am as guilty of ignoring this as anyone. Apartheid was an evil system that had to end, and I have been blithely presuming that -albeit with some grave problems - the country was making decent progress, GDP growth was slowly spreading wealth, crime was bad but not terrible

    Then the white South African manager of a posh hotel in Cambodia sat me down - two weeks ago - and told me the truth over drinks. He was nearly in tears. He isn’t some gloating Boer, he is clearly a Saffer patriot - with lots of family there. But he says they are ALL intending to leave, he never wants to go back. He says every single person he knows has either personal or direct second hand (ie close family or friend) experience of truly horrible violent crime
    The Sandpit Saffas were saying this a decade ago. Horrific robberies, murders for watches and wallets, people employing their own armed guards around housing estates, and even personal transport security, all seen as normal. Since then, things have only gone downhill fast.
    Do you find much racism amongst the Sandpit Saffas?
    Would it be racist to speculate on the skin tones of the Sandpit Saffers?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The stats coming out of South Africa are mind boggling


    In 2022-23 the UK endured about 660 homicides

    In the 2nd quarter of 2023 - ie in just 3 months - South Africa endured 7,000 murders, and 13,000 sexual assaults - those are the ones recorded by police

    “The police also recorded 6 009 hijackings, 6 045 robberies at residential properties and 4 910 robberies at non-residential premises.”

    https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/parliament/crime-stats-close-to-7000-south-africans-murdered-in-three-months-13-000-sexually-assaulted-20231117

    This is a major state on the brink of failure, yet how often is it mentioned?

    A British tourist was murdered a few months ago after turning the wrong way out of Cape Town airport.
    Having been directed there by a police roadblock, due to a minibus taxi dispute.


This discussion has been closed.