Miss C, I've heard concerns expressed from Northern Ireland about a Scottish Yes, on the basis that it would raise questions about England, Wales and Northern Ireland (most especially the latter). Of course, if Yes wins I hope there's peace and civility, but there already seems to be at least a slight increase in Irish terrorism recently (bombs last year and the failed letterbombs very recently).
I think we should split up Better Together so Labour and the Conservatives don't have to campaign together
You mean like 'Better Apart'?
Yes, that would work......
Well seeing as the two parties are arch rivals who have fought each other year in year out I am just being pragmatic.
No, I think you are completely missing the point.....some things are (or at least should be) above party politics - and if SLAB are having problems with that, or are too busy fighting each other (Falkirk, which I know you prefer to ignore) then someone in Labour needs to get a grip. Who might that be?
A highly honorable view - sadly I think it's likely to cause problems.
I don't think Kippers care much about Lib Dems taunting them. Childish name calling seems to be popular with some people in political debate, but it just makes them look stupid, not to mention being boring and unfunny.
LOL
Just how new a kipper are you? Is this not ringing any bells?
Farage needs all the publicity he can get and it's not as if someone with no MPs and not much to do is suddenly the proud statesman too busy to bother with Clegg. That was Cammie's excuse in case you missed it. Clegg might be a joke but he's a joke in power that has a party with MPs. Granted, a great deal less MPs come 2015, but still a good deal more than zero right now.
Oh criticising someone to their face is a different matter from sitting behind a keyboard copying and pasting names all day.
Is Farage planning to debate Clegg via keyboard? Then what on earth are you talking about?
Anyway, Lib Dems taunting UKIP is like Walter the Softy giving it the biggun to Dennis the Menace... come and have a go if you think you hard enough
Best have a look at some of the kipper members tweets right now then. They clearly want to have a go and seem utterly convinced Farage does too. Those look like real kippers not just some johnny come latelies who jumped on the kipper bandwagon and don't seem to know very much about Farage or the party at all.
Good for them
I would quite like to see it as I said, but think it would be better if Dave and Ed were there too
I think we should split up Better Together so Labour and the Conservatives don't have to campaign together
You mean like 'Better Apart'?
Yes, that would work......
Well seeing as the two parties are arch rivals who have fought each other year in year out I am just being pragmatic.
No, I think you are completely missing the point.....some things are (or at least should be) above party politics - and if SLAB are having problems with that, or are too busy fighting each other (Falkirk, which I know you prefer to ignore) then someone in Labour needs to get a grip. Who might that be?
Anthony Charles Lynton Blair? Born in Edinburgh, educated at Fettes. International peacemaker.
Teamed up with the Badger, El Gordo, and Big Charlie Falconer. Chuck in Whelan (lives in Scotland) and Campbell (Scottish name) and you're sorted. Could even have a special guest star - Charlie Kennedy.
1) A Clegg / Farage debate is never, ever going to be on BBC1 prime-time. At best it'll be on BBC2 Newsnight at 10.30pm. I think that holds even with Hague added - ie anything not including Cameron.
2) The broadcasters will be very wary of a full leaders debate for the Euros - partly because it destroys the novelty value - it would make the 2015 GE leaders debates less of a "big thing".
'Tear up the pathetic Better Together strategy and start again, as I have been clear about from the start. Whether it is Scottish Labour, Scottish Conservatives or George Bloody Osborne doing the crap-shovelling makes no odds to me'
So no clarity or debate on any of the key issues & under no circumstances should the No campaign state it's position because it will always upset the separatists if it's not what they demand.
Just leave everything until after the vote and if there is a Yes vote, then No can then state their position,should go down a treat..
1) A Clegg / Farage debate is never, ever going to be on BBC1 prime-time. At best it'll be on BBC2 Newsnight at 10.30pm. I think that holds even with Hague added - ie anything not including Cameron.
Actually I could easily see them doing a one-off closer to prime-time and it need not be the BBC. Those who think it will grab viewers will be in pretty fast and it most likely would.
The broadcasters will be very wary of a full leaders debate for the Euros - partly because it destroys the novelty value - it would make the 2015 GE leaders debates less of a "big thing".
Except the broadcasters all know the likelyhood of any debate with Farage in 2015 is extremely low so if they can get him for one before that (and on his big issue) then they will.
Good for you Malcolm. I am sure it will be a paradise up there.
The reason I posed the question is because I have been thinking about pensions a lot recently and there is a lot of "facts" and figures floating about, so I was curious about the scottish context when a scottish friend asked me.
Anyway, I have been busy with a lot of stuff and I will very likely be abroad when I retire (thus my recent pension fascination) so I have been preparing and getting everything sorted out.
Bev.
Bev, Sounds nice , hopefully you will be in country where you get the pension increases. I am sure it will not be paradise here but will give opportunity to improve things at least and hopefully we will grab it.
France is bad, but not debilitating. The problem is Italy and Spain. Here is the key segment:
Which raises the question: how on earth are France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Greece supposed to claw back lost labour competitiveness against Germany by means of "internal devaluations" if German wages are falling?
I have been saying this for years. The Eurozone needs German inflation at 4-5%. The whole continent will struggle if it's 3%, and if it's below 2% it's going to be a disaster. The political system makes it worse. If you had policy so masochistic in most countries, there would be such a political backlash, policy would change. But, of course, Europe is not a single demos and so its different peoples react differently and without much solidarity for each other. The German voters won't change the German government, which means the social tension in the Club Med is going to build up far more than would be possible in a democratic political economy. This will end in catastrophe, but the idiotic political elite are so committed to the European ideal that they see sound criticisms of the thing as just unbalanced eurosceptics being negative and ignore it all.
I really wish that they'd give details of exactly what they're doing. It's exactly the sort of high-profile task to attract young people into engineering. Or possible that's just me ... ;-)
1) A Clegg / Farage debate is never, ever going to be on BBC1 prime-time. At best it'll be on BBC2 Newsnight at 10.30pm. I think that holds even with Hague added - ie anything not including Cameron.
Actually I could easily see them doing a one-off closer to prime-time and it need not be the BBC. Those who think it will grab viewers will be in pretty fast and it most likely would.
The broadcasters will be very wary of a full leaders debate for the Euros - partly because it destroys the novelty value - it would make the 2015 GE leaders debates less of a "big thing".
Except the broadcasters all know the likelyhood of any debate with Farage in 2015 is extremely low so if they can get him for one before that (and on his big issue) then they will.
Whats the point of having a debate on something that isn't going to happen for at least three years anyway? It would give non political anoraks the impression that the Euros in May are some kind of referendum, which they aren't.
Clegg spoke for some time last month about distinguishing freedom of movement from the right to benefits. He was right to do so and I would welcome him to make the case again.
Clegg spoke for some time last month about distinguishing freedom of movement from the right to benefits. He was right to do so and I would welcome him to make the case again.
We need to move from an entitlement benefit system to an earned benefits system. You should have to pay taxes for a set number of years before you're allowed to claim benefits. The case in the Mail of the Romanian family was just ridiculous.
Clegg spoke for some time last month about distinguishing freedom of movement from the right to benefits. He was right to do so and I would welcome him to make the case again.
We need to move from an entitlement benefit system to an earned benefits system. You should have to pay taxes for a set number of years before you're allowed to claim benefits. The case in the Mail of the Romanian family was just ridiculous.
I have been proposing for a while that no-one (British or otherwise) should be entitled to any benefits whatsoever until they have paid three years National Insurance.
That is not a high hurdle, but it would also (a) discourage benefits tourism, and (b) emphasise to people of near school leaving age (and their parents), the importance of having employable skills.
I've no doubt both Nigel and Nick have sincerely-held views and one of the principles of politics is the debate and resolution between such differing views so it would be excellent to see them debate the issue hopefully in a civilised and constructive way.
One of the failings of the current European debate has been the lack of coherent argument from those wishing to stay IN but I also suspect that among UKIP supporters there is a divergence between those opposed to the EU (the institution) and those opposed to Europe (working with the Europeans).
It may surprise some on here but there are many in the IN camp who would accept the former contention - that the EU is fundamentally corrupt and in need of reform. The problem is that achieving the necessary reform within the organisation is hard to envisage while it is much easier to walk away and condemn the whole institution as beyond redemption.
Mr Socrates..you are absolutely spot on..here in Northern Italy people are battening down for the certain storm, the tipping point is getting nearer and it will be within months. When Government cannot pay the unemployed and its pensions then the breakup will take place ..It may be bloody..
If he does do it one on one is better as assuming the adjudicators are from the telly media then it will only be against Clegg and the adjudicators so 2 against 1. If it's all three plus the adjudicators it'll be 4 against 1.
Plus as long as his wife wasn't allowed on stage Clegg ought to be the easiest to mentally dominate.
Actually, France is the most serious problem in the Eurozone. It is the country that can blow the EU and the Eurozone to pieces.
Spain (and others) have gone through internal devaluations. Average wage rates in Spain have fallen 15% since the peak. The same is true in Ireland. There have been across the board public sector wage cuts in Ireland, Portugal and Spain.
All these countries have:
1. Cut government spending as percentage of GDP 2. Increased exports in absolute terms and as a percentage of GDP 3. Cut imports as a percentage of GDP 4. Reduced private sector indebtedness significantly
The Spanish wage/productitvity gap with Germany has completely closed. The Irish gap with Germany has completely closed. The Portugese gap is closing.
Of course, it's pretty shit if your one of the 27% of Spaniards who are unemployed. But in 2007, one in five of the Spanish workforce was working in construction or construction related activities. And that was never going to end prettily.
But can I remind you that Spain had a 10% current account deficit at its peak. That's gone. Spain - of whom Paul Krugman famously said "Spain exports nothing Germany wants to buy" - will have a current account surplus in 2014.
Ireland - whose government was bust three years ago - will see government debt-to-GDP fall later this year. It is quite possible that Irish debt to GDP will drop below the UK's level next year. They had an internal devaluation. It was shit if you were one of the people who lost their job because of it. But it worked.
Spain is twelve months behind Ireland. But things are improving fast there. I would be very surprised if GDP growth was less than 2% this year in Spain. Next year, I suspect, Spain will grow more than 3%.
Of course, this is not to say that they should have joined the Euro originally. There can be little doubt that the accommodative monetary policies that were good for Germany in the early 2000s threw petrol on the overheated property sectors in Portugal, Ireland and Spain - and caused many of the problems those countries have and had.
But this is not about the past; this is about whether those countries are recovering now. And you have to exhibit quite extraordinary levels of blindness not see that Ireland is in full blown recovery mode, and both Spain and Portugal are very much on the right tracks.
RCS1000 Personally, I would give higher benefits to those who have paid in, but I would still pay a minimum income to those who have not been able to find work, provided they have been actively seeking it
At last someone speaking up for the EU. Its not perfect but we should be working with our neighbours not fighting them. Parish matters should be decided at parish level, national at national levels and things that affect all the continent matters at the EU.
Free movement combined with adding more and more countries to the EU that are poorer than the UK = economic and demographic warfare waged by a corrupted political class against the public.
RCS1000 Personally, I would give higher benefits to those who have paid in, but I would still pay a minimum income to those who have not been able to find work, provided they have been actively seeking it
I don't think three years National Insurance contributions is a high burden. All it requires is someone to do real work - even lowly paid, part time work - for a couple of years.
Miss C, I've heard concerns expressed from Northern Ireland about a Scottish Yes, on the basis that it would raise questions about England, Wales and Northern Ireland (most especially the latter). Of course, if Yes wins I hope there's peace and civility, but there already seems to be at least a slight increase in Irish terrorism recently (bombs last year and the failed letterbombs very recently).
MD - Northern Ireland is an extremely odd place and the tribal loyalties are very strong. Any excuse to carry on will suffice. I do not miss the place at all and every time I go back there it just seems odder and odder.
I am sure it will not be paradise here but will give opportunity to improve things at least and hopefully we will grab it.
I do not think independence will happen. You have to convince the ordinary person - not the actiivists - that there will be a massive, massive improvement otherwise why should they risk it all? Most people are not gamblers. Most people just want their jobs, their homes and their holidays and very few will take any risks with all of that.
I look forward to knowing the result however it turns out.
RCS1000 Personally, I would give higher benefits to those who have paid in, but I would still pay a minimum income to those who have not been able to find work, provided they have been actively seeking it
Agreed. Something I wonder about as i approach 65 is why NI stops being paid at that point given that loads of us are continuing to work. Surely the NI fund is not so flush with monry thst it can't handle any more (and if it is, the rate could be cut lower down the scale), and most of us who choose to carry on working are not on low incomes. How much revenue would it generate if over-65s in paid employment continued to pay NI?
RCS1000 Personally, I would give higher benefits to those who have paid in, but I would still pay a minimum income to those who have not been able to find work, provided they have been actively seeking it
Agreed. Something I wonder about as i approach 65 is why NI stops being paid at that point given that loads of us are continuing to work. Surely the NI fund is not so flush with monry thst it can't handle any more (and if it is, the rate could be cut lower down the scale), and most of us who choose to carry on working are not on low incomes. How much revenue would it generate if over-65s in paid employment continued to pay NI?
You could potentially achieve this as part of merging NI and income tax. Just give a discount to those who are no longer working.
RCS1000 Personally, I would give higher benefits to those who have paid in, but I would still pay a minimum income to those who have not been able to find work, provided they have been actively seeking it
I don't think three years National Insurance contributions is a high burden. All it requires is someone to do real work - even lowly paid, part time work - for a couple of years.
Frank Field had an interesting article in the Standard the other day about people not working in London. He mentioned how the crisis might mean you're in tough shape in some places, but if you're in London, then immigrants are getting jobs very quickly. Should we really pay people benefits for a long time in such places?
If I were Cameron, I'd be pushing for greater free movement but a more restricted access to benefits. Directive 2004/38/EC places too much emphasis on economic position as a condition of entry - which works fine on paper, but the reality is that since you have an unqualified right to be here for three months, you're already in the country - and then assumes non-discrimination thereafter. It is supposed to prevent migrants from becoming a drain on resources on the members state, but it is clearly failing.
I don't buy it as having "worked" at all. I think these countries had their economies collapse far more than needed to, with catastrophic long term effects on both physical and human capital, and also human misery. The reality is that the competitiveness gap between Spain and Germany could have been closed with German inflation rather than Spanish deflation. To get the Spanish deflation you have had to inflict rampant unemployment to destroy workers' bargaining power to the point where many have been forced into poverty despite being in work. Those not in work and with no chance of getting a job have their skills go out of date, as well as suffer from mental health issues (depression etc) and a destruction of their work ethic. The highest skilled young people have simply left the country and may never go back, causing further deterioration of human capital. The deflationary nature of things also means that investment projects haven't gone ahead, weakening future productivity. All of this will permanently lower these countries' growth paths. The fact that they may start to grow from their current trough doesn't change this. How long will it be before Spain gets back to reasonable employment levels? Another five years? Seven? Nine? This on top of the five years so far. By the time it's over, there will be people in their 30s who have never had a real chance of getting a job.
Plus, you have the very negative political effect of a generation of people growing up without faith that capitalism can work.
I'm no socialist. I completely buy that supply side reform is a good and necessary thing in these places. But faced with such economic suffering, expansionary monetary and fiscal policy was needed. Tens of millions have been forced into misery because of that mistake (on top of the mistake of the euro to start).
No lengthens at Paddy Power, from 2/11 last week to 1/4 today.
That's a great price if, like George Osborne, you think that the IndyRef is in the bag for the No team. Where else can you get a 25% return on investment in less than 7 months?
No Maj Nailed On. No Maj Nailed On. No Maj Nailed On.
Oh, and the other thing is what the low pay and unemployment crisis among under 30s in these countries will do to fertility ratios, plunging these countries, many that already have low population growth, into Japan-style demographic crisis long term.
I think you can make that case about Greece, but I think it's a much harder case to make about Spain (or Ireland).
You and I are both in agreement that having German monetary policy foisted on Spain in the early 2000s led to a dangerously out of kilter economy.
But let us do a though experiment about what would have happened if Spain had left the Euro in 2008.
Would it have been possible to slow the growth in unemployment?
My view is possibly, rather than definitively. Given the massive over-reliance of the Spanish economy on building holiday homes to be sold to Brits, Germans and Scandinavians, and the 20% of the workforce in construction, there was always going to be a 15% increase in unemployment from the necessary unwinding of this.
It is possible to argue that if Spain had left the Euro, there could have been massive public works. But Spain already has insanely good infrastructure, and all you would have done is delayed the inevitable by preventing construction employment from collapsing.
Of course, if Spain had held back on the labour market reforms, they could have prevented some firings. But that would have been at the expense of individual firms - particularly in the construction sector - filing for bankruptcy. Which would have put even greater pressure on already over-levered Spanish banks.
Would it have been possible to have greater growth in exports?
Conventional wisdom is that devaluation leads to greater export competitiveness. Devaluation should therefore lead to export growth.
The UK, post 2008 devalued against both the US Dollar and the Euro. Spain did not have that advantage.
One would expect that Spain's exports would have grown more slowly. This has not been the case. Spain's exports have grown faster as both a percentage of GDP and in absolute terms.
Why? Partly because Spanish firms were starved of domestic markets for their goods. Partly because Spain has become a hub for inward investment in the last five years. VW, which had previously invested heavily in Eastern Europe, expanded in Northern Spain instead. Nissan chose the same region over Sunderland for its 'Golf killer'.
However you cut it, it's hard to make the case that Spain's exports would have grown much more quickly in the event that Spain had exited the Euro. Sure, there might have been the ability to divert more production from domestic demand: but that happened to a pretty severe extent already.
Oh, and the other thing is what the low pay and unemployment crisis among under 30s in these countries will do to fertility ratios, plunging these countries, many that already have low population growth, into Japan-style demographic crisis long term.
Is there any correlation between unemployment rates and birth rates?
China's birth rate has plummeted as its economy has grown.
Britain's has increased during a period when economic growth is lower.
I don't know the answer - but are we sure there's a correlation there?
Oh, and the other thing is what the low pay and unemployment crisis among under 30s in these countries will do to fertility ratios, plunging these countries, many that already have low population growth, into Japan-style demographic crisis long term.
IndexMundi (http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=sp&v=31) suggests Spain's fertility rate has increased quite markedly since 2007 from 1.29 to 1.48 in 2012, so your concerns are unfounded.
Oh, and the other thing is what the low pay and unemployment crisis among under 30s in these countries will do to fertility ratios, plunging these countries, many that already have low population growth, into Japan-style demographic crisis long term.
IndexMundi (http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=sp&v=31) suggests Spain's fertility rate has increased quite markedly since 2007 from 1.29 to 1.48 in 2012, so your concerns are unfounded.
Ireland's fertility rate has also increased post Eurozone crisis (breaking a long-term downwards trend), as has Portugal's, Italy's and even Greece's.
The counterfactual I was actually arguing for was actually a responsible central bank doing its job in providing accomodative monetary policy in a huge recession, and also greater fiscal stimulus, covered by German loans.
But even talking about leaving the Euro, I think Spain could have had much more FDI if it had devalued. You also say that overleveraged banks were the issue, but it would have had free range to be a lender of last resort to them if it had its own currency.
You also continue to conflate supply side reform (like the labour market changes) with the austerity and deflationary monetary policy. I will repeat again: I think supply side reform is a good thing.
RCS1000 But there will always be people who cannot find work for some reason or another, provided they are looking for it and seeking to improve their skills a civilised society should provide a minimum income. France, Germany and most of Scandinavia provide 2 tier unemployment benefits, with a contributions based benefit and a lower income based benefit for those who have exhausted their contribution or made insufficient. That is the system we should adopt, at the moment we, along with Australia, New Zealand and Ireland are the only other nations which have a principally taxpayer funded income based benefit system. Italy, Spain and the US and Canada have the system you advocate of a contributions based benefit system with no income based means tested benefits at all (other than food stamps in the US). In those countries if you have not made enough contributions or exhausted your contributions then you are reliant on food banks and charity.
Nick P I would agree with that, those who are past retirement age but still working should still make NI contributions and of course at that age they will presumably also be claimants claiming the state pension, there is no reason they cannot continue to help pay for it!
I suspect the fertility rate effects will happen not from people having children now, but people that would have got to child-having time in five to ten years, but will not have the money to do it after a horrendous decade.
No lengthens at Paddy Power, from 2/11 last week to 1/4 today.
That's a great price if, like George Osborne, you think that the IndyRef is in the bag for the No team. Where else can you get a 25% return on investment in less than 7 months?
No Maj Nailed On. No Maj Nailed On. No Maj Nailed On.
Tally ho.
And Hills & Lads (though probably not PP!) will take 50-100 grand on it. Allegedly.
He said: "Bowie's intervention yesterday encourages people in England to discuss the issues of the independence referendum, and I think English people should be discussing it, so I welcome his intervention.
"Obviously we don't have a vote but we can have an opinion.
"There hasn't been much debate in England, to be honest. (Chancellor) George Osborne's intervention last week was a beginning but the debate has still been among the political classes. We should have a better debate about what independence means and its pros and cons."
The singer reiterated his belief that Scottish independence could revitalise democracy south of the border.
No lengthens at Paddy Power, from 2/11 last week to 1/4 today.
That's a great price if, like George Osborne, you think that the IndyRef is in the bag for the No team. Where else can you get a 25% return on investment in less than 7 months?
No Maj Nailed On. No Maj Nailed On. No Maj Nailed On.
Tally ho.
And Hills & Lads (though probably not PP!) will take 50-100 grand on it. Allegedly.
No lengthens at Paddy Power, from 2/11 last week to 1/4 today.
That's a great price if, like George Osborne, you think that the IndyRef is in the bag for the No team. Where else can you get a 25% return on investment in less than 7 months?
No Maj Nailed On. No Maj Nailed On. No Maj Nailed On.
Tally ho.
And Hills & Lads (though probably not PP!) will take 50-100 grand on it. Allegedly.
We'd be daft not to remortgage our houses.
As a matter of interest, how much do you think the odds are real world ones, and how much affected by existing bets - e.g. Unionists mortgaging their London houses on a safe bet as you suggest? I seem to recall that some chaps put bets against Mr Obama winning, purely as a piece of political propaganda. Do you (or anyone) think this has happened?
The Economist. That mighty organ so well subscribed to in Auchtermuchty, Doune, Lochinver, Newtyle and Stranraer.
I've said it once and I'll say it again: you clearly haven't got the faintest clue about the task ahead of you.
The people who set bond rates read the Economist, and it's not my credibility on the line, but someone else who "clearly hasn't got the faintest clue about the task ahead of him..."
No lengthens at Paddy Power, from 2/11 last week to 1/4 today.
That's a great price if, like George Osborne, you think that the IndyRef is in the bag for the No team. Where else can you get a 25% return on investment in less than 7 months?
No Maj Nailed On. No Maj Nailed On. No Maj Nailed On.
Tally ho.
And Hills & Lads (though probably not PP!) will take 50-100 grand on it. Allegedly.
We'd be daft not to remortgage our houses.
As a matter of interest, how much do you think the odds are real world ones, and how much affected by existing bets - e.g. Unionists mortgaging their London houses on a safe bet as you suggest? I seem to recall that some chaps put bets against Mr Obama winning, purely as a piece of political propaganda. Do you (or anyone) think this has happened?
An awful lot of No bets were placed at ridiculously low odds back when the polls were looking pretty grim for Yes. Some monster-sized individual bets were mentioned.
However, the current prices are certainly "real world ones". If you win, the bookies will pay out. If you lose, they'll keep your cash. Can't get much more real than that.
Now, remind us again Eck about why it was so smart to go on about business transaction costs...as being a big issue for England
Independence 'would cost Scottish businesses more than their English competitors' New figures show transaction costs for a Scottish company would be 11 times that of its English peer if there was no deal to share the pound.
No lengthens at Paddy Power, from 2/11 last week to 1/4 today.
That's a great price if, like George Osborne, you think that the IndyRef is in the bag for the No team. Where else can you get a 25% return on investment in less than 7 months?
No Maj Nailed On. No Maj Nailed On. No Maj Nailed On.
Tally ho.
And Hills & Lads (though probably not PP!) will take 50-100 grand on it. Allegedly.
We'd be daft not to remortgage our houses.
As a matter of interest, how much do you think the odds are real world ones, and how much affected by existing bets - e.g. Unionists mortgaging their London houses on a safe bet as you suggest? I seem to recall that some chaps put bets against Mr Obama winning, purely as a piece of political propaganda. Do you (or anyone) think this has happened?
An awful lot of No bets were placed at ridiculously low odds back when the polls were looking pretty grim for Yes. Some monster-sized individual bets were mentioned.
However, the current prices are certainly "real world ones". If you win, the bookies will pay out. If you lose, they'll keep your cash. Can't get much more real than that.
Now, remind us again Eck about why it was so smart to go on about business transaction costs...as being a big issue for England
Independence 'would cost Scottish businesses more than their English competitors' New figures show transaction costs for a Scottish company would be 11 times that of its English peer if there was no deal to share the pound.
Imagine the fuss the BritNats would make if the only links Yes supporters ever posted were to Yes-supporting media. They'd go bananas. And yet they are always so pleased with themselves when they post re-prints of Conservative central office press releases.
A key rule in politics is: never believe your own propaganda.
Farage shouldn't touch this Clegg debate with a bargepole. There are too many in the media just itching for him to fail, mainly so they can have a good old gloat at the expense of the UKIP devoted. The debate will be boring anyway - esoteric ramblings about EU regulation - and will go over everyone's heads. But if Farage falters in the slightest way he will become mortal and the magic will be lost for ever.
Farage shouldn't touch this Clegg debate with a bargepole. There are too many in the media just itching for him to fail, mainly so they can have a good old gloat at the expense of the UKIP devoted. The debate will be boring anyway - esoteric ramblings about EU regulation - and will go over everyone's heads. But if Farage falters in the slightest way he will become mortal and the magic will be lost for ever.
Agreed.
Clegg is a drowning man. Farage should not extend him a straw.
Now, remind us again Eck about why it was so smart to go on about business transaction costs...as being a big issue for England
Independence 'would cost Scottish businesses more than their English competitors' New figures show transaction costs for a Scottish company would be 11 times that of its English peer if there was no deal to share the pound.
Imagine the fuss the BritNats would make if the only links Yes supporters ever posted were to Yes-supporting media. They'd go bananas. And yet they are always so pleased with themselves when they post re-prints of Conservative central office press releases.
A key rule in politics is: never believe your own propaganda.
I've been meaning to suggest to Ms Vance and her colleagues that they might like to look at the Herald comment articles and letters page for the last week or so - far more mixed than the average London newspaper or its Scottish half-clone. And that is an emphatically Unionist newspaper. The Granuiad, to be fair, has been more mixed recently.
But, as with pandas red or Tory blue, that is probably more than enough Caledoniana for one day ...
Now, remind us again Eck about why it was so smart to go on about business transaction costs...as being a big issue for England
Independence 'would cost Scottish businesses more than their English competitors' New figures show transaction costs for a Scottish company would be 11 times that of its English peer if there was no deal to share the pound.
Imagine the fuss the BritNats would make if the only links Yes supporters ever posted were to Yes-supporting media. They'd go bananas. And yet they are always so pleased with themselves when they post re-prints of Conservative central office press releases.
A key rule in politics is: never believe your own propaganda.
ROFLMAO
here Stuart, here's my experience of 5 years debating with the PBNats.
NOBODY UNDERSTANDS SCOTLAND
so you start to read up and put the local press on what's current on your favourites list,
Then it's "all the press is agin us you can't believe anything you read"
So taking the point you add a few Nat websites to your list
Then it's don't quote back stuff off Nat websites since it's all out of context
To be capped with Nat websites are based in the fking West Country -The Western Evening Mail has more relevance.
So maybe Stuart it's stop believing yout own Bullshit.
There is a rumour that Rinat Akhmetov, one of the big backers of current governing party (Party of Regions) and multi billionaire oligarch has turned up on plane at a private airfield in the UK just as rumours have it that some angry citizens are trying to block routes to airports in parts of the Ukraine..
If these stories are true and are as they appear on the surface, some people are in a panic and that news has filtered to the opposition. We await 100% confirmation.
Today in Kiev we saw the police and Berkut paramilitaries taking a bit of a hiding in parts but reports are coming in of more actions elsewhere including attempts to prevent the movement of paramilitary police units.
If we start hearing confirmed reports of the police and paramilitaries abandoning their posts, things will get interesting. The army is already subject to a huge political struggle.
What we are now watching is a bit of a citizens revolution, a proper one and i notice many of the citizens seem to be wearing conscript army helmets of old. I mentioned the other day that this is a mans fight now and it is, the opposition street fighters appear quite well organised and quite happy to kill.
Question is, are they fighting a noble cause or are they overthrowing a democratically elected government? Sometimes maybe democracy on one hand and freedom on the other are not the same
Now, remind us again Eck about why it was so smart to go on about business transaction costs...as being a big issue for England
Independence 'would cost Scottish businesses more than their English competitors' New figures show transaction costs for a Scottish company would be 11 times that of its English peer if there was no deal to share the pound.
Imagine the fuss the BritNats would make if the only links Yes supporters ever posted were to Yes-supporting media. They'd go bananas. And yet they are always so pleased with themselves when they post re-prints of Conservative central office press releases.
A key rule in politics is: never believe your own propaganda.
ROFLMAO
here Stuart, here's my experience of 5 years debating with the PBNats.
NOBODY UNDERSTANDS SCOTLAND
so you start to read up and put the local press on what's current on your favourites list,
Then it's "all the press is agin us you can't believe anything you read"
So taking the point you add a few Nat websites to your list
Then it's don't quote back stuff off Nat websites since it's all out of context
To be capped with Nat websites are based in the fking West Country -The Western Evening Mail has more relevance.
So maybe Stuart it's stop believing yout own Bullshit.
I hope you've got some screen wipes for your pc close by.
Now, remind us again Eck about why it was so smart to go on about business transaction costs...as being a big issue for England
Independence 'would cost Scottish businesses more than their English competitors' New figures show transaction costs for a Scottish company would be 11 times that of its English peer if there was no deal to share the pound.
Imagine the fuss the BritNats would make if the only links Yes supporters ever posted were to Yes-supporting media. They'd go bananas. And yet they are always so pleased with themselves when they post re-prints of Conservative central office press releases.
A key rule in politics is: never believe your own propaganda.
ROFLMAO
here Stuart, here's my experience of 5 years debating with the PBNats.
NOBODY UNDERSTANDS SCOTLAND
so you start to read up and put the local press on what's current on your favourites list,
Then it's "all the press is agin us you can't believe anything you read"
So taking the point you add a few Nat websites to your list
Then it's don't quote back stuff off Nat websites since it's all out of context
To be capped with Nat websites are based in the fking West Country -The Western Evening Mail has more relevance.
So maybe Stuart it's stop believing yout own Bullshit.
I hope you've got some screen wipes for your pc close by.
Hey divvie you're the one recommended all the West Country websites.
Now, remind us again Eck about why it was so smart to go on about business transaction costs...as being a big issue for England
Independence 'would cost Scottish businesses more than their English competitors' New figures show transaction costs for a Scottish company would be 11 times that of its English peer if there was no deal to share the pound.
Imagine the fuss the BritNats would make if the only links Yes supporters ever posted were to Yes-supporting media. They'd go bananas. And yet they are always so pleased with themselves when they post re-prints of Conservative central office press releases.
A key rule in politics is: never believe your own propaganda.
ROFLMAO
here Stuart, here's my experience of 5 years debating with the PBNats.
NOBODY UNDERSTANDS SCOTLAND
so you start to read up and put the local press on what's current on your favourites list,
Then it's "all the press is agin us you can't believe anything you read"
So taking the point you add a few Nat websites to your list
Then it's don't quote back stuff off Nat websites since it's all out of context
To be capped with Nat websites are based in the fking West Country -The Western Evening Mail has more relevance.
So maybe Stuart it's stop believing yout own Bullshit.
I hope you've got some screen wipes for your pc close by.
Hey divvie you're the one recommended all the West Country websites.
I thought a Britisher like yourself would appreciate the intra national (within the UK that is) appeal.
Now, remind us again Eck about why it was so smart to go on about business transaction costs...as being a big issue for England
Independence 'would cost Scottish businesses more than their English competitors' New figures show transaction costs for a Scottish company would be 11 times that of its English peer if there was no deal to share the pound.
Imagine the fuss the BritNats would make if the only links Yes supporters ever posted were to Yes-supporting media. They'd go bananas. And yet they are always so pleased with themselves when they post re-prints of Conservative central office press releases.
A key rule in politics is: never believe your own propaganda.
ROFLMAO
here Stuart, here's my experience of 5 years debating with the PBNats.
NOBODY UNDERSTANDS SCOTLAND
so you start to read up and put the local press on what's current on your favourites list,
Then it's "all the press is agin us you can't believe anything you read"
So taking the point you add a few Nat websites to your list
Then it's don't quote back stuff off Nat websites since it's all out of context
To be capped with Nat websites are based in the fking West Country -The Western Evening Mail has more relevance.
So maybe Stuart it's stop believing yout own Bullshit.
I hope you've got some screen wipes for your pc close by.
Hey divvie you're the one recommended all the West Country websites.
I thought a Britisher like yourself would appreciate the intra national (within the UK that is) appeal.
Oh I most certainly did, but I just find it bizarre that nats make it so easy to return serve.
I would be surprised if there was much downside for Farage in not debating Clegg. It might make it slightly easier to exclude Farage from the GE debates, if these occur again, but his demand that he wants all the leaders involved or nothing is a plausible position that gives cover. Also, I wonder if Clegg can remotely repeat his GE debating success. His credibility has been so shot through since then I fear a similar impact on pro European positions as he had on electoral reform. It is a personal tragedy, given his sincere convictions. Farage is new, anti-establishment politics, like Salmond. Clegg has become, because he made such a play of also being anti-establishment, unfairly, the most hated face of the old establishment politics.
Comments
Miss C, I've heard concerns expressed from Northern Ireland about a Scottish Yes, on the basis that it would raise questions about England, Wales and Northern Ireland (most especially the latter). Of course, if Yes wins I hope there's peace and civility, but there already seems to be at least a slight increase in Irish terrorism recently (bombs last year and the failed letterbombs very recently).
That would be worthy of name calling!
I would quite like to see it as I said, but think it would be better if Dave and Ed were there too
Teamed up with the Badger, El Gordo, and Big Charlie Falconer. Chuck in Whelan (lives in Scotland) and Campbell (Scottish name) and you're sorted. Could even have a special guest star - Charlie Kennedy.
What could possibly go wrong?
1) A Clegg / Farage debate is never, ever going to be on BBC1 prime-time. At best it'll be on BBC2 Newsnight at 10.30pm. I think that holds even with Hague added - ie anything not including Cameron.
2) The broadcasters will be very wary of a full leaders debate for the Euros - partly because it destroys the novelty value - it would make the 2015 GE leaders debates less of a "big thing".
LOL
Shriek!
'Tear up the pathetic Better Together strategy and start again, as I have been clear about from the start. Whether it is Scottish Labour, Scottish Conservatives or George Bloody Osborne doing the crap-shovelling makes no odds to me'
So no clarity or debate on any of the key issues & under no circumstances should the No campaign state it's position because it will always upset the separatists if it's not what they demand.
Just leave everything until after the vote and if there is a Yes vote, then No can then state their position,should go down a treat..
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/26280304
*sighs*
Which raises the question: how on earth are France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Greece supposed to claw back lost labour competitiveness against Germany by means of "internal devaluations" if German wages are falling?
I have been saying this for years. The Eurozone needs German inflation at 4-5%. The whole continent will struggle if it's 3%, and if it's below 2% it's going to be a disaster. The political system makes it worse. If you had policy so masochistic in most countries, there would be such a political backlash, policy would change. But, of course, Europe is not a single demos and so its different peoples react differently and without much solidarity for each other. The German voters won't change the German government, which means the social tension in the Club Med is going to build up far more than would be possible in a democratic political economy. This will end in catastrophe, but the idiotic political elite are so committed to the European ideal that they see sound criticisms of the thing as just unbalanced eurosceptics being negative and ignore it all.
http://www.siteeyelive.com/monitor/bbcdawlish/camputerb86.jpg
I really wish that they'd give details of exactly what they're doing. It's exactly the sort of high-profile task to attract young people into engineering. Or possible that's just me ... ;-)
Whats the point of having a debate on something that isn't going to happen for at least three years anyway? It would give non political anoraks the impression that the Euros in May are some kind of referendum, which they aren't.
Are you a skater?
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=2010
•Hillary Clinton (D) 49% [49%]
•Paul Ryan (R) 40% [41%]
•Hillary Clinton (D) 51% [49%]
•John Kasich (R) 39% [38%]
•Hillary Clinton (D) 49% [42%] (42%)
•Chris Christie (R) 36% [41%] (42%)
•Hillary Clinton (D) 51% [50%] (47%)
•Rand Paul (R) 38% [40%] (44%)
•Hillary Clinton (D) 50% [48%]
•Marco Rubio (R) 36% [39%]
•Hillary Clinton (D) 51% [50%]
•Jeb Bush (R) 36% [37%]
•Hillary Clinton (D) 51% [50%]
•Ted Cruz (R) 34% [35%]
An impressive case Mr Socrates.
Under these circumstances, the cleverer Europeans should realise they badly need the UK to stay in.
I reckon Angela Merkel is amongst the cleverer ones.
That is not a high hurdle, but it would also (a) discourage benefits tourism, and (b) emphasise to people of near school leaving age (and their parents), the importance of having employable skills.
It will just be a question of the details and venue.
Most of the papers are picking it up too, unsurprisingly.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2563718/Clegg-challenges-Farage-live-debate-Britain-leaving-EU-Lib-Dems-battle-survival-Brussels-elections.html
I've no doubt both Nigel and Nick have sincerely-held views and one of the principles of politics is the debate and resolution between such differing views so it would be excellent to see them debate the issue hopefully in a civilised and constructive way.
One of the failings of the current European debate has been the lack of coherent argument from those wishing to stay IN but I also suspect that among UKIP supporters there is a divergence between those opposed to the EU (the institution) and those opposed to Europe (working with the Europeans).
It may surprise some on here but there are many in the IN camp who would accept the former contention - that the EU is fundamentally corrupt and in need of reform. The problem is that achieving the necessary reform within the organisation is hard to envisage while it is much easier to walk away and condemn the whole institution as beyond redemption.
'Scottish independence: No case ‘disappoints’ STUC'
http://tinyurl.com/ozk49gh
When Government cannot pay the unemployed and its pensions then the breakup will take place ..It may be bloody..
a new Scottish currency under independence would “allow most discretion over fiscal and monetary policy”.
Yup....
The Lib Dems are drowning,better not lend them a hand.They may take UKIP with them too.
Plus as long as his wife wasn't allowed on stage Clegg ought to be the easiest to mentally dominate.
Actually, France is the most serious problem in the Eurozone. It is the country that can blow the EU and the Eurozone to pieces.
Spain (and others) have gone through internal devaluations. Average wage rates in Spain have fallen 15% since the peak. The same is true in Ireland. There have been across the board public sector wage cuts in Ireland, Portugal and Spain.
All these countries have:
1. Cut government spending as percentage of GDP
2. Increased exports in absolute terms and as a percentage of GDP
3. Cut imports as a percentage of GDP
4. Reduced private sector indebtedness significantly
The Spanish wage/productitvity gap with Germany has completely closed. The Irish gap with Germany has completely closed. The Portugese gap is closing.
Of course, it's pretty shit if your one of the 27% of Spaniards who are unemployed. But in 2007, one in five of the Spanish workforce was working in construction or construction related activities. And that was never going to end prettily.
But can I remind you that Spain had a 10% current account deficit at its peak. That's gone. Spain - of whom Paul Krugman famously said "Spain exports nothing Germany wants to buy" - will have a current account surplus in 2014.
Ireland - whose government was bust three years ago - will see government debt-to-GDP fall later this year. It is quite possible that Irish debt to GDP will drop below the UK's level next year. They had an internal devaluation. It was shit if you were one of the people who lost their job because of it. But it worked.
Spain is twelve months behind Ireland. But things are improving fast there. I would be very surprised if GDP growth was less than 2% this year in Spain. Next year, I suspect, Spain will grow more than 3%.
Of course, this is not to say that they should have joined the Euro originally. There can be little doubt that the accommodative monetary policies that were good for Germany in the early 2000s threw petrol on the overheated property sectors in Portugal, Ireland and Spain - and caused many of the problems those countries have and had.
But this is not about the past; this is about whether those countries are recovering now. And you have to exhibit quite extraordinary levels of blindness not see that Ireland is in full blown recovery mode, and both Spain and Portugal are very much on the right tracks.
It is one of those little details that needs sorting out :-)
I do not think independence will happen. You have to convince the ordinary person - not the actiivists - that there will be a massive, massive improvement otherwise why should they risk it all? Most people are not gamblers. Most people just want their jobs, their homes and their holidays and very few will take any risks with all of that.
I look forward to knowing the result however it turns out.
Bev.
I also know that I owe isam and other Wyntheshawe money. I am back in England on Monday evening and will pay on Tuesday.
If I owe you money, please email me so I don't forget.
Does Labour have a problem with women MPs ??
I don't buy it as having "worked" at all. I think these countries had their economies collapse far more than needed to, with catastrophic long term effects on both physical and human capital, and also human misery. The reality is that the competitiveness gap between Spain and Germany could have been closed with German inflation rather than Spanish deflation. To get the Spanish deflation you have had to inflict rampant unemployment to destroy workers' bargaining power to the point where many have been forced into poverty despite being in work. Those not in work and with no chance of getting a job have their skills go out of date, as well as suffer from mental health issues (depression etc) and a destruction of their work ethic. The highest skilled young people have simply left the country and may never go back, causing further deterioration of human capital. The deflationary nature of things also means that investment projects haven't gone ahead, weakening future productivity. All of this will permanently lower these countries' growth paths. The fact that they may start to grow from their current trough doesn't change this. How long will it be before Spain gets back to reasonable employment levels? Another five years? Seven? Nine? This on top of the five years so far. By the time it's over, there will be people in their 30s who have never had a real chance of getting a job.
Plus, you have the very negative political effect of a generation of people growing up without faith that capitalism can work.
I'm no socialist. I completely buy that supply side reform is a good and necessary thing in these places. But faced with such economic suffering, expansionary monetary and fiscal policy was needed. Tens of millions have been forced into misery because of that mistake (on top of the mistake of the euro to start).
That's a great price if, like George Osborne, you think that the IndyRef is in the bag for the No team. Where else can you get a 25% return on investment in less than 7 months?
No Maj Nailed On.
No Maj Nailed On.
No Maj Nailed On.
Tally ho.
I think you can make that case about Greece, but I think it's a much harder case to make about Spain (or Ireland).
You and I are both in agreement that having German monetary policy foisted on Spain in the early 2000s led to a dangerously out of kilter economy.
But let us do a though experiment about what would have happened if Spain had left the Euro in 2008.
Would it have been possible to slow the growth in unemployment?
My view is possibly, rather than definitively. Given the massive over-reliance of the Spanish economy on building holiday homes to be sold to Brits, Germans and Scandinavians, and the 20% of the workforce in construction, there was always going to be a 15% increase in unemployment from the necessary unwinding of this.
It is possible to argue that if Spain had left the Euro, there could have been massive public works. But Spain already has insanely good infrastructure, and all you would have done is delayed the inevitable by preventing construction employment from collapsing.
Of course, if Spain had held back on the labour market reforms, they could have prevented some firings. But that would have been at the expense of individual firms - particularly in the construction sector - filing for bankruptcy. Which would have put even greater pressure on already over-levered Spanish banks.
Would it have been possible to have greater growth in exports?
Conventional wisdom is that devaluation leads to greater export competitiveness. Devaluation should therefore lead to export growth.
The UK, post 2008 devalued against both the US Dollar and the Euro. Spain did not have that advantage.
One would expect that Spain's exports would have grown more slowly. This has not been the case. Spain's exports have grown faster as both a percentage of GDP and in absolute terms.
Why? Partly because Spanish firms were starved of domestic markets for their goods. Partly because Spain has become a hub for inward investment in the last five years. VW, which had previously invested heavily in Eastern Europe, expanded in Northern Spain instead. Nissan chose the same region over Sunderland for its 'Golf killer'.
However you cut it, it's hard to make the case that Spain's exports would have grown much more quickly in the event that Spain had exited the Euro. Sure, there might have been the ability to divert more production from domestic demand: but that happened to a pretty severe extent already.
China's birth rate has plummeted as its economy has grown.
Britain's has increased during a period when economic growth is lower.
I don't know the answer - but are we sure there's a correlation there?
The counterfactual I was actually arguing for was actually a responsible central bank doing its job in providing accomodative monetary policy in a huge recession, and also greater fiscal stimulus, covered by German loans.
But even talking about leaving the Euro, I think Spain could have had much more FDI if it had devalued. You also say that overleveraged banks were the issue, but it would have had free range to be a lender of last resort to them if it had its own currency.
You also continue to conflate supply side reform (like the labour market changes) with the austerity and deflationary monetary policy. I will repeat again: I think supply side reform is a good thing.
I've said it once and I'll say it again: you clearly haven't got the faintest clue about the task ahead of you.
Nick P I would agree with that, those who are past retirement age but still working should still make NI contributions and of course at that age they will presumably also be claimants claiming the state pension, there is no reason they cannot continue to help pay for it!
I suspect the fertility rate effects will happen not from people having children now, but people that would have got to child-having time in five to ten years, but will not have the money to do it after a horrendous decade.
credibility issue there Stuart.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/feb/20/people-stripped-benefits-charged-decision
He said: "Bowie's intervention yesterday encourages people in England to discuss the issues of the independence referendum, and I think English people should be discussing it, so I welcome his intervention.
"Obviously we don't have a vote but we can have an opinion.
"There hasn't been much debate in England, to be honest. (Chancellor) George Osborne's intervention last week was a beginning but the debate has still been among the political classes. We should have a better debate about what independence means and its pros and cons."
The singer reiterated his belief that Scottish independence could revitalise democracy south of the border.
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/uk/bragg-welcomes-bowie-intervention-30027812.html
However, the current prices are certainly "real world ones". If you win, the bookies will pay out. If you lose, they'll keep your cash. Can't get much more real than that.
Independence 'would cost Scottish businesses more than their English competitors'
New figures show transaction costs for a Scottish company would be 11 times that of its English peer if there was no deal to share the pound.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10240776/Independence-would-cost-Scottish-businesses-more-than-their-English-competitors.html
A key rule in politics is: never believe your own propaganda.
Clegg is a drowning man. Farage should not extend him a straw.
But, as with pandas red or Tory blue, that is probably more than enough Caledoniana for one day ...
here Stuart, here's my experience of 5 years debating with the PBNats.
NOBODY UNDERSTANDS SCOTLAND
so you start to read up and put the local press on what's current on your favourites list,
Then it's "all the press is agin us you can't believe anything you read"
So taking the point you add a few Nat websites to your list
Then it's don't quote back stuff off Nat websites since it's all out of context
To be capped with Nat websites are based in the fking West Country -The Western Evening Mail has more relevance.
So maybe Stuart it's stop believing yout own Bullshit.
There is a rumour that Rinat Akhmetov, one of the big backers of current governing party (Party of Regions) and multi billionaire oligarch has turned up on plane at a private airfield in the UK just as rumours have it that some angry citizens are trying to block routes to airports in parts of the Ukraine..
If these stories are true and are as they appear on the surface, some people are in a panic and that news has filtered to the opposition. We await 100% confirmation.
Today in Kiev we saw the police and Berkut paramilitaries taking a bit of a hiding in parts but reports are coming in of more actions elsewhere including attempts to prevent the movement of paramilitary police units.
If we start hearing confirmed reports of the police and paramilitaries abandoning their posts, things will get interesting. The army is already subject to a huge political struggle.
What we are now watching is a bit of a citizens revolution, a proper one and i notice many of the citizens seem to be wearing conscript army helmets of old. I mentioned the other day that this is a mans fight now and it is, the opposition street fighters appear quite well organised and quite happy to kill.
Question is, are they fighting a noble cause or are they overthrowing a democratically elected government? Sometimes maybe democracy on one hand and freedom on the other are not the same