Could Nikki Haley be the GOP figure to beat Trump? – politicalbetting.com
Could Nikki Haley be the GOP figure to beat Trump? – politicalbetting.com
In the WH2024 betting a recent mover has been Niki Haley – the former Governor of South Carolina and US Ambassador to the UN. She. is now second to Trump in the nomination betting and is starting to get more media attention.
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Haley though is the far better candidate. Right wing but not crazy, which seems a rarity nowadays.
It's the main reason that the polls are where they are.
1. X/Twitter is suing campaign group Media Matters, for platform manipulation and tortuous interference. This is the group that have been lobbying advertisers to boycott the platform, allegedly by falsifying connections between adverts, posted content, and relationships between them. https://deadline.com/2023/11/elon-musk-lawsuit-twitter-ads-1235630087/
2. Two Republican State Attorneys General have also shown an interest in the Media Matters case. https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/attorney-general-ken-paxton-opens-investigation-media-matters-potential-fraudulent-activity
3. Video platform Rumble may also want to join the Twitter lawsuit, they’re also struggling with advertiser boycotts. Investigation by journalist Glenn Greenwald: https://rumble.com/v3wxe0s-system-update-show-185.html
https://x.com/chrispavlovski/status/1726745030470119588?s=61
4. Trump’s Truth Social is suing 20 mainstream media outlets, (inc Guardian and Daily Mail) for allegedly reporting incorrect financial information on a listed company, and failing to correct the error. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-21/trump-s-truth-social-parent-company-sues-20-media-outlets
Are we seeing the start of the mainstream and alternative media outlets trying to shut each other down ahead of the election, or a flash in the pan that gets resolved quickly?
She’d be a breath of fresh air.
(Worth noting that some republicans are unforgiving because she was the first senior figure to hew to Trump back in 2016. Others are unforgiving because she was the first to abandon ship when she realised what an untrustworthy schmuck he is)
Only a Convention stitch-up is going to prevent his nomination.
A reverse of 2016.
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/unpacking-the-supreme-courts-rwanda-decision/
Interestingly she says that - while Cleverly has told the Commons that the agreement with Rwanda has been amended "to make clear that those sent there cannot be sent to another country than the UK" - currently under UK law people sent to a third country are not allowed to return to the UK.
If that's correct, it obviously raises more questions. Did Cleverly "misspeak" to the Commons? Have the Rwandans really agreed to keep everyone we send them regardless of their circumstances? If they have, is that commitment remotely believable? Or is the government planning to change the law to allow failed asylum seekers to return from third countries to the UK (presumably after the election)?
Unlike others, I do see a narrow path to the nomination for her - but it does require the field to narrow further before Iowa (or certainly NH), and by that, I mean DeSantis, Christie etc would have to withdraw or suspend their campaigns.
In a straight one-on-one crapshoot with Trump it’s plausible she could narrowly carry an early state. If she were to do so, she would get momentum, and momentum can be hard to stop in the primaries.
I rate this chance as probably less than 10% at the moment. But it’s not an insignificant chance.
Hence RFK making the point of running as an indy already, so he can register everywhere as such. I do wonder if he eventually drops out, and is just hoping to make the debates - where he’ll attack Biden from the left on economic issues and Trump from the right on social issues.
If it is not safe for people to be deported to their original country, then surely their claim for asylum is valid.
In what sense can someone be a "failed asylum seeker" yet in danger if they returned?
The whole point of this is that - according to the judgment of the Supreme Court - Rwanda cannot be trusted to act correctly, and therefore it is not safe to send people to Rwanda.
But in order to stop a deportation that puts the person in danger, a court (or similar) has to reverse the decision in effect.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tanganyika_groundnut_scheme
I don’t know about (4), but I presume it’s the same as most of Trump’s attempts to sue: bullshit thrown together to create a fundraising campaign that he’ll drop at some later date when no-one is paying attention.
But the courts move slowly, so I don’t think any of these will ultimately succeed, but they could all drag on and make some lawyers lots of money.
There is polling to suggest that once his trials turn into sentences, a significant portion of his support melts away, giving Biden double-digit leads.
This has (understanding) made Twitter/X cross.
But Media Matters makes no secret of how they get their results. They aren't claiming that everyday users will see IBM adverts next to neo -Nazi content.
So I don't see how Twitter wins. The screenshots are true and valid. And they are allowed to distribute them to advertisers. That is, after all, free speech.
M’pai village on Koh Rong Sanloem. Lost to the world. Yet it has a wine and cheese bar. Dogs pant in the sun. Kids play in the sand. Everyone sleeps. You can get a really good pizza or watch the Khmer fishermen drink moonshine at noon
It’s one of those places where you think if I lived here would I kill my self with boredom after a week or would I be tranquil and happy forever and ever
And good morning, one and all
If a Google search brought up illegal content and someone complained, would Google be justified in accusing them of "manufacturing" the content?
1) Run as an independent, Biden wins, he goes to jail
2) Support the nominee in return for a promise of a pardon, the nominee has at least a 50/50 shot of beating Biden, and they'd almost definitely keep their promise to pardon him
Does he want to go to jail or does he want to go home?
So yes, I can easily believe Musk randomly firing moderation teams leads to offensive content, and that adverts are placed anywhere. I'd also note that IBM employs hundreds of thousands of tech nerds who can look into this, and is not the Harper Valley PTA panicking on rumours.
He's an idiot but he's not stupid, if that makes sense.
The Clintons were in Swansea last week. Househunting in the Gower? It might have been handy if they were, as they would need to be not in the USA come January 2025. Same goes for the Obamas, the Bidens and several dozen other elite families. Trump has gone full frootloop.
Why are the voters of the World turning to the terminally bonkers? Over to you Suella. Although under those circumstances, presumably the Clinton's would wind up in Rwanda.
There are too many people here weirdly keen to talk to me. That suggests not many outsiders and a lot of boredom
And yet it is intensely seductive. M’pai right now. Rush hour
Love the school desks in the sand vibe
I must be getting old because I can imagine doing a whole winter here. January March. I’d probably get excited by the cement bag delivery
Leon, I’m proud of you. The way you get knocked down on here, but keep coming back despite everything, is inspirational.
That’s an old Khmer saying which I just made up
If you’re six years old this place must be Eden. There are kids sleeping on top of fridges in the sand. In a good way
https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-the-us-2024-democratic-presidential-nomination
There's also smart contract risk and oracle risk since it's crypto but reassuringly this system doesn't use my code in any way.
The hope is more actual voters will though. But he is supported enough that he can destroy the party and they know it.
That's a risk to your bet.
(Edit: Someone should check out what Hunter's betting on.)
I do get the appeal of a sea view, completely
On the plus side, we've enjoyed it for that time and we'll be moving on next year for a new project. Time to let someone else enjoy the view.
Do you think you could have endured 2 months without hanging yourself?
A serious question. I normally go to Bangkok in the winter but hmmmmm
He believes anything he reads, has incredibly thin skin, and does the constant moan about how attacks on him don't work but he'll unleash fury on those that do it.
Twitter has shown us, even before Musk, that even smart billionaires can be utter fools.
I’m trying to guess where. But it could be multiple places in southern England. Dorset? Sussex? Somerset?
I think it's how some people are self justifying continued support, but if it happens (which won't be until May/June) it will be so close to the election, after they've backed him with a primary vote, that they'll fall in line about biased judges, DC being 90% Democrat and so on.
They already say that, which is preparation for rejecting the outcome.
Many years of cooking the books - low values for property taxes, greatly inflated values for raising loans at preferential rates - will come back to bite him in the arse. The Dems will have a mass of attack material that will make the Moms and Pops supporters begin to think maybe they've been had by a snake-oil salesman. That is before the taxman starts taking a close look at his affairs.
Trump will still no doubt stand as an independent. Which will be good news for the Republicans, long term but not in 2024.
Ironically, if America turns back towards valuing democracy and away from would-be tin pot dicatators, then Trump will have done a great service to Make America Great Again. Just not how he envisioned it.
THESE ARE MY PEOPLE. I HAVE COME HOME
We do take it for granted, a bit. But there are times I just stand at the end of the garden and take it in - nice sunset, mist like that or if there are hares, deer or an owl to watch.
I don't think I'd ever get bored of a sea view. It changes too much. There's a place we went to across from the summer isles where the living room was two storey height and all glass to the sea. We tried to watch films at night, but kept getting distracted by the view (west facing, so the added drama of the sun setting).
ETA: The main reason we tried - and failed - to move house s couple of years back and ended upe extending was being unable to replicate the open outlook with our budget. We didn't find anything that compared that we could afford, so we stayed instead. Hope you are able to find somewhere that works.
England can be so beautiful. It just the damn climate November-early March. Which is unfortunately a fair chunk of the year
I guess it’s true of everything. That’s the restless human spirit
As Pascal said, so much trouble stems from the fact humans can’t just sit in a room, quietly
It's so blatant though. Attack judges (apart from the accommodating judge Cannon) over and over, and even if they don't misstep use the fact he attacks them as proof they must hate him.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/ng-interactive/2023/oct/02/uk-income-tax-how-fiscal-drag-leads-to-people-falling-into-higher-rates (later graphs seem to be blurred cos no hard data)
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/nov/21/pressure-grows-on-hunt-to-cut-income-tax-as-millions-more-face-paying-it
I love dogs, me. Endless entertainment
I make that two so far in barely 3 hours
Haley might be the one to replace Trump should law or infirmity prevent his candidacy but she won't take him down - and if she doesn't take him down, and he doesn't quit, then either he wins the nomination or his primary opponent does.
Put simply, if it becomes Trump v A N Other, then that battle squeezes the rest of the fight. If Haley isn't prepared to take on Trump directly, and she isn't, then she can't be the A N Other because that would leave Trump effectively unopposed.
That said, even without Trump, I doubt Haley would be the selection. The two have history and Trump isn't a man to let a slight go lightly, even when he appears to in the short term for tactical reasons.
He thinks the solution to problems is to show strength. If he wanted a comfortable life, he would have walked away from the 2020 election and got paid big bucks to appear on Fox News. I expect he will fight tooth and nail if he loses the Republican primary or the party otherwise blocks his candidacy.
The only way that may be challenged is if he loses his civil and criminal cases, is convicted and jailed and fails to win the GOP nomination outright. The nominee is then chosen after a deadlocked conversation in the summer