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Could Nikki Haley be the GOP figure to beat Trump? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,014
edited November 2023 in General
imageCould Nikki Haley be the GOP figure to beat Trump? – politicalbetting.com

In the WH2024 betting a recent mover has been Niki Haley – the former Governor of South Carolina and US Ambassador to the UN. She. is now second to Trump in the nomination betting and is starting to get more media attention.

Read the full story here

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    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,207
    Despite his high name recognition, I do think Trump's massive negatives, including, but not limited to, his legal jeopardy make his candidacy a very high risk bet. After the farce over the Speakership of the House and the poor results in the recent electoral round, the GOP is facing headwinds as a party too. The fact that Biden is eminently beatable might just wake up enough Republicans to put MAGA into a box and Nicki Haley could be the big beneficiary.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    2nd like Haley.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    FPT:

    Nigelb said:

    Significant win for Biden.

    https://twitter.com/LaurenKGurley/status/1726607861093167353
    Ford, GM & Stellantis workers have voted by 64% in favor of ratifying their contract deals, UAW says.

    Contracts offer larger wage increases than UAW workers have received in the past 22 yrs combined.

    Close-ish vote likely due to very high expectations from members..

    Will he get any thanks though?

    America economy is doing pretty good yet ordinary joes are fed up and negative and think everything is going to shit economy wise. The polls just dont match the finance situation.

    There’s a lot more American people primarily feeling the negative effects of cumulative inflation, than there are feeling the positive effects of the economic recovery, even if on paper growth is up and inflation is down.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578
    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    Nigelb said:

    Significant win for Biden.

    https://twitter.com/LaurenKGurley/status/1726607861093167353
    Ford, GM & Stellantis workers have voted by 64% in favor of ratifying their contract deals, UAW says.

    Contracts offer larger wage increases than UAW workers have received in the past 22 yrs combined.

    Close-ish vote likely due to very high expectations from members..

    Will he get any thanks though?

    America economy is doing pretty good yet ordinary joes are fed up and negative and think everything is going to shit economy wise. The polls just dont match the finance situation.

    There’s a lot more American people primarily feeling the negative effects of cumulative inflation, than there are feeling the positive effects of the economic recovery, even if on paper growth is up and inflation is down.
    Same here, feeling the negative effects of cumulative inflation, but with the addition of no economic recovery.

    It's the main reason that the polls are where they are.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    For some reason there’s a whole load of weird US media stories overnight.

    1. X/Twitter is suing campaign group Media Matters, for platform manipulation and tortuous interference. This is the group that have been lobbying advertisers to boycott the platform, allegedly by falsifying connections between adverts, posted content, and relationships between them. https://deadline.com/2023/11/elon-musk-lawsuit-twitter-ads-1235630087/

    2. Two Republican State Attorneys General have also shown an interest in the Media Matters case. https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/attorney-general-ken-paxton-opens-investigation-media-matters-potential-fraudulent-activity

    3. Video platform Rumble may also want to join the Twitter lawsuit, they’re also struggling with advertiser boycotts. Investigation by journalist Glenn Greenwald: https://rumble.com/v3wxe0s-system-update-show-185.html
    https://x.com/chrispavlovski/status/1726745030470119588?s=61

    4. Trump’s Truth Social is suing 20 mainstream media outlets, (inc Guardian and Daily Mail) for allegedly reporting incorrect financial information on a listed company, and failing to correct the error. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-21/trump-s-truth-social-parent-company-sues-20-media-outlets

    Are we seeing the start of the mainstream and alternative media outlets trying to shut each other down ahead of the election, or a flash in the pan that gets resolved quickly?
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    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,014
    Nikki is great - I first started really paying attention when she was at the UN (although was kept an eye out when she was in SC).

    She’d be a breath of fresh air.

    (Worth noting that some republicans are unforgiving because she was the first senior figure to hew to Trump back in 2016. Others are unforgiving because she was the first to abandon ship when she realised what an untrustworthy schmuck he is)
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    So can Nikki Haley establish herself as the clear second place above RDS, and keep the Florida governor from taking the majority of Trump’s primary votes should the big orange man bad drop out? I don’t think she’s at that point yet, but there’s an awful long way to go.
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    darkagedarkage Posts: 4,796
    It feels to me like any hope of an alternative candidate to Trump is futile and wishful thinking.
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    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,014
    darkage said:

    It feels to me like any hope of an alternative candidate to Trump is futile and wishful thinking.

    And what is the downside of a little light in our darkness?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    darkage said:

    It feels to me like any hope of an alternative candidate to Trump is futile and wishful thinking.

    I can’t see any way in which he doesn’t win the primaries, unless one of the many prosecutors can actually put him in prison with no phone and no rallies - and even then, there’s little evidence that locking him up will impact his popularity among the primary voters.

    Only a Convention stitch-up is going to prevent his nomination.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,983
    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    It feels to me like any hope of an alternative candidate to Trump is futile and wishful thinking.

    I can’t see any way in which he doesn’t win the primaries, unless one of the many prosecutors can actually put him in prison with no phone and no rallies - and even then, there’s little evidence that locking him up will impact his popularity among the primary voters.

    Only a Convention stitch-up is going to prevent his nomination.
    They can't even do that as he'd stand as an independent and guarantee that the Republicans lose. So their choice is 50% chance (or maybe more) of winning with him vs 0% without him.
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    I wonder if this time Trump might win the popular vote but lose the key swing states.

    A reverse of 2016.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,117
    edited November 2023
    There's a useful discussion of the Supreme Court ruling by Joelle Grogan here:
    https://ukandeu.ac.uk/unpacking-the-supreme-courts-rwanda-decision/

    Interestingly she says that - while Cleverly has told the Commons that the agreement with Rwanda has been amended "to make clear that those sent there cannot be sent to another country than the UK" - currently under UK law people sent to a third country are not allowed to return to the UK.

    If that's correct, it obviously raises more questions. Did Cleverly "misspeak" to the Commons? Have the Rwandans really agreed to keep everyone we send them regardless of their circumstances? If they have, is that commitment remotely believable? Or is the government planning to change the law to allow failed asylum seekers to return from third countries to the UK (presumably after the election)?
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,441
    edited November 2023
    On topic, yes she’s very good, and would be an eminently better candidate than Trump. And would probably beat most Democrats in matchups - certainly Biden.

    Unlike others, I do see a narrow path to the nomination for her - but it does require the field to narrow further before Iowa (or certainly NH), and by that, I mean DeSantis, Christie etc would have to withdraw or suspend their campaigns.

    In a straight one-on-one crapshoot with Trump it’s plausible she could narrowly carry an early state. If she were to do so, she would get momentum, and momentum can be hard to stop in the primaries.

    I rate this chance as probably less than 10% at the moment. But it’s not an insignificant chance.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    It feels to me like any hope of an alternative candidate to Trump is futile and wishful thinking.

    I can’t see any way in which he doesn’t win the primaries, unless one of the many prosecutors can actually put him in prison with no phone and no rallies - and even then, there’s little evidence that locking him up will impact his popularity among the primary voters.

    Only a Convention stitch-up is going to prevent his nomination.
    They can't even do that as he'd stand as an independent and guarantee that the Republicans lose. So their choice is 50% chance (or maybe more) of winning with him vs 0% without him.
    IIRC there’s a number of states that won’t let you stand as an independent, if you’ve already stood in the primary for a party.

    Hence RFK making the point of running as an indy already, so he can register everywhere as such. I do wonder if he eventually drops out, and is just hoping to make the debates - where he’ll attack Biden from the left on economic issues and Trump from the right on social issues.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578
    Chris said:

    There's a useful discussion of the Supreme Court ruling by Joelle Grogan here:
    https://ukandeu.ac.uk/unpacking-the-supreme-courts-rwanda-decision/

    Interestingly she says that - while Cleverly has told the Commons that the agreement with Rwanda has been amended "to make clear that those sent there cannot be sent to another country than the UK" - currently under UK law people sent to a third country are not allowed to return to the UK.

    If that's correct, it obviously raises more questions. Did Cleverly "misspeak" to the Commons? Have the Rwandans really agreed to keep everyone we send them regardless of their circumstances? If they have, is that commitment remotely believable? Or is the government planning to change the law to allow failed asylum seekers to return from third countries to the UK (presumably after the election)?

    This doesn't make sense to me.

    If it is not safe for people to be deported to their original country, then surely their claim for asylum is valid.

    In what sense can someone be a "failed asylum seeker" yet in danger if they returned?
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,875
    ...
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    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    There's a useful discussion of the Supreme Court ruling by Joelle Grogan here:
    https://ukandeu.ac.uk/unpacking-the-supreme-courts-rwanda-decision/

    Interestingly she says that - while Cleverly has told the Commons that the agreement with Rwanda has been amended "to make clear that those sent there cannot be sent to another country than the UK" - currently under UK law people sent to a third country are not allowed to return to the UK.

    If that's correct, it obviously raises more questions. Did Cleverly "misspeak" to the Commons? Have the Rwandans really agreed to keep everyone we send them regardless of their circumstances? If they have, is that commitment remotely believable? Or is the government planning to change the law to allow failed asylum seekers to return from third countries to the UK (presumably after the election)?

    This doesn't make sense to me.

    If it is not safe for people to be deported to their original country, then surely their claim for asylum is valid.

    In what sense can someone be a "failed asylum seeker" yet in danger if they returned?
    If the decision makers are corrupt, biased or incompetent.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938

    I wonder if this time Trump might win the popular vote but lose the key swing states.

    A reverse of 2016.

    I think that's entirely possible, with Trump doing meaningfully better in New York, California and the Deep South, but not making much progress in the rust belt.
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    ChrisChris Posts: 11,117
    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    There's a useful discussion of the Supreme Court ruling by Joelle Grogan here:
    https://ukandeu.ac.uk/unpacking-the-supreme-courts-rwanda-decision/

    Interestingly she says that - while Cleverly has told the Commons that the agreement with Rwanda has been amended "to make clear that those sent there cannot be sent to another country than the UK" - currently under UK law people sent to a third country are not allowed to return to the UK.

    If that's correct, it obviously raises more questions. Did Cleverly "misspeak" to the Commons? Have the Rwandans really agreed to keep everyone we send them regardless of their circumstances? If they have, is that commitment remotely believable? Or is the government planning to change the law to allow failed asylum seekers to return from third countries to the UK (presumably after the election)?

    This doesn't make sense to me.

    If it is not safe for people to be deported to their original country, then surely their claim for asylum is valid.

    In what sense can someone be a "failed asylum seeker" yet in danger if they returned?
    Because - according to the judgment of the Supreme Court - there is a significant risk that Rwanda will reject applications from people with valid claims for asylum.

    The whole point of this is that - according to the judgment of the Supreme Court - Rwanda cannot be trusted to act correctly, and therefore it is not safe to send people to Rwanda.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    There's a useful discussion of the Supreme Court ruling by Joelle Grogan here:
    https://ukandeu.ac.uk/unpacking-the-supreme-courts-rwanda-decision/

    Interestingly she says that - while Cleverly has told the Commons that the agreement with Rwanda has been amended "to make clear that those sent there cannot be sent to another country than the UK" - currently under UK law people sent to a third country are not allowed to return to the UK.

    If that's correct, it obviously raises more questions. Did Cleverly "misspeak" to the Commons? Have the Rwandans really agreed to keep everyone we send them regardless of their circumstances? If they have, is that commitment remotely believable? Or is the government planning to change the law to allow failed asylum seekers to return from third countries to the UK (presumably after the election)?

    This doesn't make sense to me.

    If it is not safe for people to be deported to their original country, then surely their claim for asylum is valid.

    In what sense can someone be a "failed asylum seeker" yet in danger if they returned?
    If the decision makers are corrupt, biased or incompetent.
    I am sure a lot are.

    But in order to stop a deportation that puts the person in danger, a court (or similar) has to reverse the decision in effect.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,578
    Chris said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    There's a useful discussion of the Supreme Court ruling by Joelle Grogan here:
    https://ukandeu.ac.uk/unpacking-the-supreme-courts-rwanda-decision/

    Interestingly she says that - while Cleverly has told the Commons that the agreement with Rwanda has been amended "to make clear that those sent there cannot be sent to another country than the UK" - currently under UK law people sent to a third country are not allowed to return to the UK.

    If that's correct, it obviously raises more questions. Did Cleverly "misspeak" to the Commons? Have the Rwandans really agreed to keep everyone we send them regardless of their circumstances? If they have, is that commitment remotely believable? Or is the government planning to change the law to allow failed asylum seekers to return from third countries to the UK (presumably after the election)?

    This doesn't make sense to me.

    If it is not safe for people to be deported to their original country, then surely their claim for asylum is valid.

    In what sense can someone be a "failed asylum seeker" yet in danger if they returned?
    Because - according to the judgment of the Supreme Court - there is a significant risk that Rwanda will reject applications from people with valid claims for asylum.

    The whole point of this is that - according to the judgment of the Supreme Court - Rwanda cannot be trusted to act correctly, and therefore it is not safe to send people to Rwanda.
    More and more the Rwanda scheme seems to resemble that notorious colonial farce of the groundnut scheme. Only with more danger to people.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tanganyika_groundnut_scheme
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,586
    Sandpit said:

    For some reason there’s a whole load of weird US media stories overnight.

    1. X/Twitter is suing campaign group Media Matters, for platform manipulation and tortuous interference. This is the group that have been lobbying advertisers to boycott the platform, allegedly by falsifying connections between adverts, posted content, and relationships between them. https://deadline.com/2023/11/elon-musk-lawsuit-twitter-ads-1235630087/

    2. Two Republican State Attorneys General have also shown an interest in the Media Matters case. https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/attorney-general-ken-paxton-opens-investigation-media-matters-potential-fraudulent-activity

    3. Video platform Rumble may also want to join the Twitter lawsuit, they’re also struggling with advertiser boycotts. Investigation by journalist Glenn Greenwald: https://rumble.com/v3wxe0s-system-update-show-185.html
    https://x.com/chrispavlovski/status/1726745030470119588?s=61

    4. Trump’s Truth Social is suing 20 mainstream media outlets, (inc Guardian and Daily Mail) for allegedly reporting incorrect financial information on a listed company, and failing to correct the error. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-21/trump-s-truth-social-parent-company-sues-20-media-outlets

    Are we seeing the start of the mainstream and alternative media outlets trying to shut each other down ahead of the election, or a flash in the pan that gets resolved quickly?

    Twitter’s case in (1) is exceedingly weak. Their own complaint says, yes, sometimes adverts are put next to posts by Nazis, but they say Media Matters are exaggerating this. The discovery process is going to throw open Twitter’s moderation operation, which will presumably show Musk personally interfering on all sorts of dodgy stuff and a general collapse in moderation since he took over. (2) is political posturing that will run up against the same problems.

    I don’t know about (4), but I presume it’s the same as most of Trump’s attempts to sue: bullshit thrown together to create a fundraising campaign that he’ll drop at some later date when no-one is paying attention.

    But the courts move slowly, so I don’t think any of these will ultimately succeed, but they could all drag on and make some lawyers lots of money.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Trump is getting ever more extreme, moving towards an agenda that is dismantling the rule of law to go against anyone who has the temerity to stand up to him. His references to opponents as "vermin" is straight out the Nazi playbook. The more his legal woes expand, the more authoritarian he becomes.

    There is polling to suggest that once his trials turn into sentences, a significant portion of his support melts away, giving Biden double-digit leads.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938
    edited November 2023
    Sandpit said:

    For some reason there’s a whole load of weird US media stories overnight.

    1. X/Twitter is suing campaign group Media Matters, for platform manipulation and tortuous interference. This is the group that have been lobbying advertisers to boycott the platform, allegedly by falsifying connections between adverts, posted content, and relationships between them. https://deadline.com/2023/11/elon-musk-lawsuit-twitter-ads-1235630087/

    2. Two Republican State Attorneys General have also shown an interest in the Media Matters case. https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/attorney-general-ken-paxton-opens-investigation-media-matters-potential-fraudulent-activity

    3. Video platform Rumble may also want to join the Twitter lawsuit, they’re also struggling with advertiser boycotts. Investigation by journalist Glenn Greenwald: https://rumble.com/v3wxe0s-system-update-show-185.html
    https://x.com/chrispavlovski/status/1726745030470119588?s=61

    4. Trump’s Truth Social is suing 20 mainstream media outlets, (inc Guardian and Daily Mail) for allegedly reporting incorrect financial information on a listed company, and failing to correct the error. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-21/trump-s-truth-social-parent-company-sues-20-media-outlets

    Are we seeing the start of the mainstream and alternative media outlets trying to shut each other down ahead of the election, or a flash in the pan that gets resolved quickly?

    Media Matters has definitely worked hard to get the confluence of adverts for IBM next to neo -Nazi posts. They have created accounts, had them only follow people who post pretty shitty content, and then have screenshotted the results.

    This has (understanding) made Twitter/X cross.

    But Media Matters makes no secret of how they get their results. They aren't claiming that everyday users will see IBM adverts next to neo -Nazi content.

    So I don't see how Twitter wins. The screenshots are true and valid. And they are allowed to distribute them to advertisers. That is, after all, free speech.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    Have arrived on The Beach from Alex Garland’s the Beach

    M’pai village on Koh Rong Sanloem. Lost to the world. Yet it has a wine and cheese bar. Dogs pant in the sun. Kids play in the sand. Everyone sleeps. You can get a really good pizza or watch the Khmer fishermen drink moonshine at noon

    It’s one of those places where you think if I lived here would I kill my self with boredom after a week or would I be tranquil and happy forever and ever
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    For some reason there’s a whole load of weird US media stories overnight.

    1. X/Twitter is suing campaign group Media Matters, for platform manipulation and tortuous interference. This is the group that have been lobbying advertisers to boycott the platform, allegedly by falsifying connections between adverts, posted content, and relationships between them. https://deadline.com/2023/11/elon-musk-lawsuit-twitter-ads-1235630087/

    2. Two Republican State Attorneys General have also shown an interest in the Media Matters case. https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/attorney-general-ken-paxton-opens-investigation-media-matters-potential-fraudulent-activity

    3. Video platform Rumble may also want to join the Twitter lawsuit, they’re also struggling with advertiser boycotts. Investigation by journalist Glenn Greenwald: https://rumble.com/v3wxe0s-system-update-show-185.html
    https://x.com/chrispavlovski/status/1726745030470119588?s=61

    4. Trump’s Truth Social is suing 20 mainstream media outlets, (inc Guardian and Daily Mail) for allegedly reporting incorrect financial information on a listed company, and failing to correct the error. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-21/trump-s-truth-social-parent-company-sues-20-media-outlets

    Are we seeing the start of the mainstream and alternative media outlets trying to shut each other down ahead of the election, or a flash in the pan that gets resolved quickly?

    Media Matters has definitely worked hard to get the confluence of adverse for IBM next to neo -Nazi posts. They have created accounts, had them only follow people who post pretty shitty content, and then have screenshotted the results.

    This has (understanding) made Twitter/X cross.

    But Media Matters makes no secret of how they get their results. They aren't claiming that everyday users will see IBM adverts next to neo -Nazi content.

    So I don't see how Twitter wins. The screenshots are true and valid. And they are allowed to distribute them to advertisers. That is, after all, free speech.
    As an aside, in the old days, Twitter accepted that they simply wouldn't get any advertising revenue from people who looked at certain types of content.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,960

    Trump is getting ever more extreme, moving towards an agenda that is dismantling the rule of law to go against anyone who has the temerity to stand up to him. His references to opponents as "vermin" is straight out the Nazi playbook. The more his legal woes expand, the more authoritarian he becomes.

    There is polling to suggest that once his trials turn into sentences, a significant portion of his support melts away, giving Biden double-digit leads.

    I hope you are right; a thumping defeat for Trump, even if not an accompanied by jail sentences, would be a very good thing!


    And good morning, one and all
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,148
    Leon said:

    Have arrived on The Beach from Alex Garland’s the Beach

    M’pai village on Koh Rong Sanloem. Lost to the world. Yet it has a wine and cheese bar. Dogs pant in the sun. Kids play in the sand. Everyone sleeps. You can get a really good pizza or watch the Khmer fishermen drink moonshine at noon

    It’s one of those places where you think if I lived here would I kill my self with boredom after a week or would I be tranquil and happy forever and ever

    We all know its
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,148
    Vanilla strikes again,
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,117
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    For some reason there’s a whole load of weird US media stories overnight.

    1. X/Twitter is suing campaign group Media Matters, for platform manipulation and tortuous interference. This is the group that have been lobbying advertisers to boycott the platform, allegedly by falsifying connections between adverts, posted content, and relationships between them. https://deadline.com/2023/11/elon-musk-lawsuit-twitter-ads-1235630087/

    2. Two Republican State Attorneys General have also shown an interest in the Media Matters case. https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/attorney-general-ken-paxton-opens-investigation-media-matters-potential-fraudulent-activity

    3. Video platform Rumble may also want to join the Twitter lawsuit, they’re also struggling with advertiser boycotts. Investigation by journalist Glenn Greenwald: https://rumble.com/v3wxe0s-system-update-show-185.html
    https://x.com/chrispavlovski/status/1726745030470119588?s=61

    4. Trump’s Truth Social is suing 20 mainstream media outlets, (inc Guardian and Daily Mail) for allegedly reporting incorrect financial information on a listed company, and failing to correct the error. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-21/trump-s-truth-social-parent-company-sues-20-media-outlets

    Are we seeing the start of the mainstream and alternative media outlets trying to shut each other down ahead of the election, or a flash in the pan that gets resolved quickly?

    Media Matters has definitely worked hard to get the confluence of adverts for IBM next to neo -Nazi posts. They have created accounts, had them only follow people who post pretty shitty content, and then have screenshotted the results.

    This has (understanding) made Twitter/X cross.

    But Media Matters makes no secret of how they get their results. They aren't claiming that everyday users will see IBM adverts next to neo -Nazi content.

    So I don't see how Twitter wins. The screenshots are true and valid. And they are allowed to distribute them to advertisers. That is, after all, free speech.
    It's pretty rich of Twitter to accuse someone of "manufacturing" something that actually came from their web servers.

    If a Google search brought up illegal content and someone complained, would Google be justified in accusing them of "manufacturing" the content?
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    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    It feels to me like any hope of an alternative candidate to Trump is futile and wishful thinking.

    I can’t see any way in which he doesn’t win the primaries, unless one of the many prosecutors can actually put him in prison with no phone and no rallies - and even then, there’s little evidence that locking him up will impact his popularity among the primary voters.

    Only a Convention stitch-up is going to prevent his nomination.
    They can't even do that as he'd stand as an independent and guarantee that the Republicans lose. So their choice is 50% chance (or maybe more) of winning with him vs 0% without him.
    I can't speak for what's in his head but his options if he loses the primary are:

    1) Run as an independent, Biden wins, he goes to jail
    2) Support the nominee in return for a promise of a pardon, the nominee has at least a 50/50 shot of beating Biden, and they'd almost definitely keep their promise to pardon him

    Does he want to go to jail or does he want to go home?
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,586

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    It feels to me like any hope of an alternative candidate to Trump is futile and wishful thinking.

    I can’t see any way in which he doesn’t win the primaries, unless one of the many prosecutors can actually put him in prison with no phone and no rallies - and even then, there’s little evidence that locking him up will impact his popularity among the primary voters.

    Only a Convention stitch-up is going to prevent his nomination.
    They can't even do that as he'd stand as an independent and guarantee that the Republicans lose. So their choice is 50% chance (or maybe more) of winning with him vs 0% without him.
    I can't speak for what's in his head but his options if he loses the primary are:

    1) Run as an independent, Biden wins, he goes to jail
    2) Support the nominee in return for a promise of a pardon, the nominee has at least a 50/50 shot of beating Biden, and they'd almost definitely keep their promise to pardon him

    Does he want to go to jail or does he want to go home?
    He’s a senile narcissist. I’m unclear why you’re expecting him to be a rational decision maker.
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    It feels to me like any hope of an alternative candidate to Trump is futile and wishful thinking.

    I can’t see any way in which he doesn’t win the primaries, unless one of the many prosecutors can actually put him in prison with no phone and no rallies - and even then, there’s little evidence that locking him up will impact his popularity among the primary voters.

    Only a Convention stitch-up is going to prevent his nomination.
    They can't even do that as he'd stand as an independent and guarantee that the Republicans lose. So their choice is 50% chance (or maybe more) of winning with him vs 0% without him.
    I can't speak for what's in his head but his options if he loses the primary are:

    1) Run as an independent, Biden wins, he goes to jail
    2) Support the nominee in return for a promise of a pardon, the nominee has at least a 50/50 shot of beating Biden, and they'd almost definitely keep their promise to pardon him

    Does he want to go to jail or does he want to go home?
    He'd probably still go to jail anyway as the state cases cannot be pardoned federally (though it is difficult to keep track with all the indictments). And federal prisons are generally preferable to state ones.
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    For some reason there’s a whole load of weird US media stories overnight.

    1. X/Twitter is suing campaign group Media Matters, for platform manipulation and tortuous interference. This is the group that have been lobbying advertisers to boycott the platform, allegedly by falsifying connections between adverts, posted content, and relationships between them. https://deadline.com/2023/11/elon-musk-lawsuit-twitter-ads-1235630087/

    2. Two Republican State Attorneys General have also shown an interest in the Media Matters case. https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/attorney-general-ken-paxton-opens-investigation-media-matters-potential-fraudulent-activity

    3. Video platform Rumble may also want to join the Twitter lawsuit, they’re also struggling with advertiser boycotts. Investigation by journalist Glenn Greenwald: https://rumble.com/v3wxe0s-system-update-show-185.html
    https://x.com/chrispavlovski/status/1726745030470119588?s=61

    4. Trump’s Truth Social is suing 20 mainstream media outlets, (inc Guardian and Daily Mail) for allegedly reporting incorrect financial information on a listed company, and failing to correct the error. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-21/trump-s-truth-social-parent-company-sues-20-media-outlets

    Are we seeing the start of the mainstream and alternative media outlets trying to shut each other down ahead of the election, or a flash in the pan that gets resolved quickly?

    Media Matters has definitely worked hard to get the confluence of adverts for IBM next to neo -Nazi posts. They have created accounts, had them only follow people who post pretty shitty content, and then have screenshotted the results.

    This has (understanding) made Twitter/X cross.

    But Media Matters makes no secret of how they get their results. They aren't claiming that everyday users will see IBM adverts next to neo -Nazi content.

    So I don't see how Twitter wins. The screenshots are true and valid. And they are allowed to distribute them to advertisers. That is, after all, free speech.
    A couple of months back (as I might have posted here at the time) I was served hardcore porn whilst mindlessly scrolling (not searching) through Twitter. Stuff that would have been career-ending had anyone seen it over my shoulder in the House of Commons, and possibly life-ending in a pub.

    So yes, I can easily believe Musk randomly firing moderation teams leads to offensive content, and that adverts are placed anywhere. I'd also note that IBM employs hundreds of thousands of tech nerds who can look into this, and is not the Harper Valley PTA panicking on rumours.
  • Options

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    It feels to me like any hope of an alternative candidate to Trump is futile and wishful thinking.

    I can’t see any way in which he doesn’t win the primaries, unless one of the many prosecutors can actually put him in prison with no phone and no rallies - and even then, there’s little evidence that locking him up will impact his popularity among the primary voters.

    Only a Convention stitch-up is going to prevent his nomination.
    They can't even do that as he'd stand as an independent and guarantee that the Republicans lose. So their choice is 50% chance (or maybe more) of winning with him vs 0% without him.
    I can't speak for what's in his head but his options if he loses the primary are:

    1) Run as an independent, Biden wins, he goes to jail
    2) Support the nominee in return for a promise of a pardon, the nominee has at least a 50/50 shot of beating Biden, and they'd almost definitely keep their promise to pardon him

    Does he want to go to jail or does he want to go home?
    He’s a senile narcissist. I’m unclear why you’re expecting him to be a rational decision maker.
    IDK, it's always hard to tell how much calculation is going on with Trump. He managed to be president of America, he's leading the primary despite losing the election, and he's been doing shady things all his life while successfully escaping the consequences.

    He's an idiot but he's not stupid, if that makes sense.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,124

    Trump is getting ever more extreme, moving towards an agenda that is dismantling the rule of law to go against anyone who has the temerity to stand up to him. His references to opponents as "vermin" is straight out the Nazi playbook. The more his legal woes expand, the more authoritarian he becomes.

    There is polling to suggest that once his trials turn into sentences, a significant portion of his support melts away, giving Biden double-digit leads.

    I do admire your optimism, both in the case of a Trump defeat and a magnificent Conservative win. As one of life's glass half-empty exponents I take my hat off to you.

    The Clintons were in Swansea last week. Househunting in the Gower? It might have been handy if they were, as they would need to be not in the USA come January 2025. Same goes for the Obamas, the Bidens and several dozen other elite families. Trump has gone full frootloop.

    Why are the voters of the World turning to the terminally bonkers? Over to you Suella. Although under those circumstances, presumably the Clinton's would wind up in Rwanda.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,318

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    It feels to me like any hope of an alternative candidate to Trump is futile and wishful thinking.

    I can’t see any way in which he doesn’t win the primaries, unless one of the many prosecutors can actually put him in prison with no phone and no rallies - and even then, there’s little evidence that locking him up will impact his popularity among the primary voters.

    Only a Convention stitch-up is going to prevent his nomination.
    They can't even do that as he'd stand as an independent and guarantee that the Republicans lose. So their choice is 50% chance (or maybe more) of winning with him vs 0% without him.
    I can't speak for what's in his head but his options if he loses the primary are:

    1) Run as an independent, Biden wins, he goes to jail
    2) Support the nominee in return for a promise of a pardon, the nominee has at least a 50/50 shot of beating Biden, and they'd almost definitely keep their promise to pardon him

    Does he want to go to jail or does he want to go home?
    Trump has picked Stupid for a long, long time.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993

    Leon said:

    Have arrived on The Beach from Alex Garland’s the Beach

    M’pai village on Koh Rong Sanloem. Lost to the world. Yet it has a wine and cheese bar. Dogs pant in the sun. Kids play in the sand. Everyone sleeps. You can get a really good pizza or watch the Khmer fishermen drink moonshine at noon

    It’s one of those places where you think if I lived here would I kill my self with boredom after a week or would I be tranquil and happy forever and ever

    We all know its
    … boredom? Probably

    There are too many people here weirdly keen to talk to me. That suggests not many outsiders and a lot of boredom

    And yet it is intensely seductive. M’pai right now. Rush hour




    Love the school desks in the sand vibe


    I must be getting old because I can imagine doing a whole winter here. January March. I’d probably get excited by the cement bag delivery
  • Options
    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    For some reason there’s a whole load of weird US media stories overnight.

    1. X/Twitter is suing campaign group Media Matters, for platform manipulation and tortuous interference. This is the group that have been lobbying advertisers to boycott the platform, allegedly by falsifying connections between adverts, posted content, and relationships between them. https://deadline.com/2023/11/elon-musk-lawsuit-twitter-ads-1235630087/

    2. Two Republican State Attorneys General have also shown an interest in the Media Matters case. https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/attorney-general-ken-paxton-opens-investigation-media-matters-potential-fraudulent-activity

    3. Video platform Rumble may also want to join the Twitter lawsuit, they’re also struggling with advertiser boycotts. Investigation by journalist Glenn Greenwald: https://rumble.com/v3wxe0s-system-update-show-185.html
    https://x.com/chrispavlovski/status/1726745030470119588?s=61

    4. Trump’s Truth Social is suing 20 mainstream media outlets, (inc Guardian and Daily Mail) for allegedly reporting incorrect financial information on a listed company, and failing to correct the error. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-21/trump-s-truth-social-parent-company-sues-20-media-outlets

    Are we seeing the start of the mainstream and alternative media outlets trying to shut each other down ahead of the election, or a flash in the pan that gets resolved quickly?

    Media Matters has definitely worked hard to get the confluence of adverts for IBM next to neo -Nazi posts. They have created accounts, had them only follow people who post pretty shitty content, and then have screenshotted the results.

    This has (understanding) made Twitter/X cross.

    But Media Matters makes no secret of how they get their results. They aren't claiming that everyday users will see IBM adverts next to neo -Nazi content.

    So I don't see how Twitter wins. The screenshots are true and valid. And they are allowed to distribute them to advertisers. That is, after all, free speech.
    It's pretty rich of Twitter to accuse someone of "manufacturing" something that actually came from their web servers.

    If a Google search brought up illegal content and someone complained, would Google be justified in accusing them of "manufacturing" the content?
    You have misunderstood the problem. It is not that Twitter has neo-Nazi content, which is a free speech issue, but that Twitter places adverts for respectable companies next to offensive content which might be taken to imply that IBM (or any company) endorses that content. That is why advertisers are stopping.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,117

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    For some reason there’s a whole load of weird US media stories overnight.

    1. X/Twitter is suing campaign group Media Matters, for platform manipulation and tortuous interference. This is the group that have been lobbying advertisers to boycott the platform, allegedly by falsifying connections between adverts, posted content, and relationships between them. https://deadline.com/2023/11/elon-musk-lawsuit-twitter-ads-1235630087/

    2. Two Republican State Attorneys General have also shown an interest in the Media Matters case. https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/attorney-general-ken-paxton-opens-investigation-media-matters-potential-fraudulent-activity

    3. Video platform Rumble may also want to join the Twitter lawsuit, they’re also struggling with advertiser boycotts. Investigation by journalist Glenn Greenwald: https://rumble.com/v3wxe0s-system-update-show-185.html
    https://x.com/chrispavlovski/status/1726745030470119588?s=61

    4. Trump’s Truth Social is suing 20 mainstream media outlets, (inc Guardian and Daily Mail) for allegedly reporting incorrect financial information on a listed company, and failing to correct the error. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-21/trump-s-truth-social-parent-company-sues-20-media-outlets

    Are we seeing the start of the mainstream and alternative media outlets trying to shut each other down ahead of the election, or a flash in the pan that gets resolved quickly?

    Media Matters has definitely worked hard to get the confluence of adverts for IBM next to neo -Nazi posts. They have created accounts, had them only follow people who post pretty shitty content, and then have screenshotted the results.

    This has (understanding) made Twitter/X cross.

    But Media Matters makes no secret of how they get their results. They aren't claiming that everyday users will see IBM adverts next to neo -Nazi content.

    So I don't see how Twitter wins. The screenshots are true and valid. And they are allowed to distribute them to advertisers. That is, after all, free speech.
    It's pretty rich of Twitter to accuse someone of "manufacturing" something that actually came from their web servers.

    If a Google search brought up illegal content and someone complained, would Google be justified in accusing them of "manufacturing" the content?
    You have misunderstood the problem.
    No - you have misunderstood my comment. God knows how, but still ...
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Have arrived on The Beach from Alex Garland’s the Beach

    M’pai village on Koh Rong Sanloem. Lost to the world. Yet it has a wine and cheese bar. Dogs pant in the sun. Kids play in the sand. Everyone sleeps. You can get a really good pizza or watch the Khmer fishermen drink moonshine at noon

    It’s one of those places where you think if I lived here would I kill my self with boredom after a week or would I be tranquil and happy forever and ever

    I thought that on seeing (on television) Cliff Richard's Caribbean hideaway with its unrestricted view of the ocean from his bed. What do you look at after the first ten minutes?
  • Options
    On topic, the header perhaps asks the wrong question. It is not whether Haley can beat Trump, because obviously she cannot. What Haley might be able to do is pass Ron DeSantis and the rest to be the clear second choice, and then hope Trump pulls out or is disqualified.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,133
    Leon said:

    Have arrived on The Beach from Alex Garland’s the Beach

    M’pai village on Koh Rong Sanloem. Lost to the world. Yet it has a wine and cheese bar. Dogs pant in the sun. Kids play in the sand. Everyone sleeps. You can get a really good pizza or watch the Khmer fishermen drink moonshine at noon

    It’s one of those places where you think if I lived here would I kill my self with boredom after a week or would I be tranquil and happy forever and ever

    Leon’s back. Can we be nicer to him today? He’s trying very hard and, in the circumstances, doing okay.

    Leon, I’m proud of you. The way you get knocked down on here, but keep coming back despite everything, is inspirational.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Have arrived on The Beach from Alex Garland’s the Beach

    M’pai village on Koh Rong Sanloem. Lost to the world. Yet it has a wine and cheese bar. Dogs pant in the sun. Kids play in the sand. Everyone sleeps. You can get a really good pizza or watch the Khmer fishermen drink moonshine at noon

    It’s one of those places where you think if I lived here would I kill my self with boredom after a week or would I be tranquil and happy forever and ever

    We all know its
    … boredom? Probably

    There are too many people here weirdly keen to talk to me. That suggests not many outsiders and a lot of boredom

    And yet it is intensely seductive. M’pai right now. Rush hour




    Love the school desks in the sand vibe


    I must be getting old because I can imagine doing a whole winter here. January March. I’d probably get excited by the cement bag delivery
    Got yer tinnie there I see. Did they not have Tenants?
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,586

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    It feels to me like any hope of an alternative candidate to Trump is futile and wishful thinking.

    I can’t see any way in which he doesn’t win the primaries, unless one of the many prosecutors can actually put him in prison with no phone and no rallies - and even then, there’s little evidence that locking him up will impact his popularity among the primary voters.

    Only a Convention stitch-up is going to prevent his nomination.
    They can't even do that as he'd stand as an independent and guarantee that the Republicans lose. So their choice is 50% chance (or maybe more) of winning with him vs 0% without him.
    I can't speak for what's in his head but his options if he loses the primary are:

    1) Run as an independent, Biden wins, he goes to jail
    2) Support the nominee in return for a promise of a pardon, the nominee has at least a 50/50 shot of beating Biden, and they'd almost definitely keep their promise to pardon him

    Does he want to go to jail or does he want to go home?
    He’s a senile narcissist. I’m unclear why you’re expecting him to be a rational decision maker.
    IDK, it's always hard to tell how much calculation is going on with Trump. He managed to be president of America, he's leading the primary despite losing the election, and he's been doing shady things all his life while successfully escaping the consequences.

    He's an idiot but he's not stupid, if that makes sense.
    He’s been a narcissist all his life, but he hasn’t been senile all his life. He’s making more and more gaffes lately.
  • Options
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    For some reason there’s a whole load of weird US media stories overnight.

    1. X/Twitter is suing campaign group Media Matters, for platform manipulation and tortuous interference. This is the group that have been lobbying advertisers to boycott the platform, allegedly by falsifying connections between adverts, posted content, and relationships between them. https://deadline.com/2023/11/elon-musk-lawsuit-twitter-ads-1235630087/

    2. Two Republican State Attorneys General have also shown an interest in the Media Matters case. https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/attorney-general-ken-paxton-opens-investigation-media-matters-potential-fraudulent-activity

    3. Video platform Rumble may also want to join the Twitter lawsuit, they’re also struggling with advertiser boycotts. Investigation by journalist Glenn Greenwald: https://rumble.com/v3wxe0s-system-update-show-185.html
    https://x.com/chrispavlovski/status/1726745030470119588?s=61

    4. Trump’s Truth Social is suing 20 mainstream media outlets, (inc Guardian and Daily Mail) for allegedly reporting incorrect financial information on a listed company, and failing to correct the error. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-21/trump-s-truth-social-parent-company-sues-20-media-outlets

    Are we seeing the start of the mainstream and alternative media outlets trying to shut each other down ahead of the election, or a flash in the pan that gets resolved quickly?

    Media Matters has definitely worked hard to get the confluence of adverts for IBM next to neo -Nazi posts. They have created accounts, had them only follow people who post pretty shitty content, and then have screenshotted the results.

    This has (understanding) made Twitter/X cross.

    But Media Matters makes no secret of how they get their results. They aren't claiming that everyday users will see IBM adverts next to neo -Nazi content.

    So I don't see how Twitter wins. The screenshots are true and valid. And they are allowed to distribute them to advertisers. That is, after all, free speech.
    It's pretty rich of Twitter to accuse someone of "manufacturing" something that actually came from their web servers.

    If a Google search brought up illegal content and someone complained, would Google be justified in accusing them of "manufacturing" the content?
    You have misunderstood the problem.
    No - you have misunderstood my comment. God knows how, but still ...
    On re-reading, no I have not. At question is not offensive content, which your comment addressed, but placing adverts next to it. What you say might be correct but is not the point at issue.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Have arrived on The Beach from Alex Garland’s the Beach

    M’pai village on Koh Rong Sanloem. Lost to the world. Yet it has a wine and cheese bar. Dogs pant in the sun. Kids play in the sand. Everyone sleeps. You can get a really good pizza or watch the Khmer fishermen drink moonshine at noon

    It’s one of those places where you think if I lived here would I kill my self with boredom after a week or would I be tranquil and happy forever and ever

    Leon’s back. Can we be nicer to him today? He’s trying very hard and, in the circumstances, doing okay.

    Leon, I’m proud of you. The way you get knocked down on here, but keep coming back despite everything, is inspirational.
    Thanks. You’re still a simpleton, but “the admiration of a fool is better than gold from a rich man”

    That’s an old Khmer saying which I just made up
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    Leon said:

    Have arrived on The Beach from Alex Garland’s the Beach

    M’pai village on Koh Rong Sanloem. Lost to the world. Yet it has a wine and cheese bar. Dogs pant in the sun. Kids play in the sand. Everyone sleeps. You can get a really good pizza or watch the Khmer fishermen drink moonshine at noon

    It’s one of those places where you think if I lived here would I kill my self with boredom after a week or would I be tranquil and happy forever and ever

    I agree. KRS is the closest I've been to paradise, apart from the mosquitos. I spent a couple of weeks writing once. No distractions, gorgeous weather and a stunning beach. It was perfect.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993

    Leon said:

    Have arrived on The Beach from Alex Garland’s the Beach

    M’pai village on Koh Rong Sanloem. Lost to the world. Yet it has a wine and cheese bar. Dogs pant in the sun. Kids play in the sand. Everyone sleeps. You can get a really good pizza or watch the Khmer fishermen drink moonshine at noon

    It’s one of those places where you think if I lived here would I kill my self with boredom after a week or would I be tranquil and happy forever and ever

    I thought that on seeing (on television) Cliff Richard's Caribbean hideaway with its unrestricted view of the ocean from his bed. What do you look at after the first ten minutes?
    It is a question I often ask myself - when I come to places that are apparently paradise. And, professionally, I do that quite a lot

    If you’re six years old this place must be Eden. There are kids sleeping on top of fridges in the sand. In a good way
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,124

    Trump is getting ever more extreme, moving towards an agenda that is dismantling the rule of law to go against anyone who has the temerity to stand up to him. His references to opponents as "vermin" is straight out the Nazi playbook. The more his legal woes expand, the more authoritarian he becomes.

    There is polling to suggest that once his trials turn into sentences, a significant portion of his support melts away, giving Biden double-digit leads.

    I do admire your optimism, both in the case of a Trump defeat and a magnificent Conservative win. As one of life's glass half-empty exponents I take my hat off to you.

    The Clintons were in Swansea last week. Househunting in the Gower? It might have been handy if they were, as they would need to be not in the USA come January 2025. Same goes for the Obamas, the Bidens and several dozen other elite families. Trump has gone full frootloop.

    Why are the voters of the World turning to the terminally bonkers? Over to you Suella. Although under those circumstances, presumably the Clinton's would wind up in Rwanda.
    I thought I'd manually recorrected all the autocorrect apostrophes. It seems like I missed one.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636

    Trump is getting ever more extreme, moving towards an agenda that is dismantling the rule of law to go against anyone who has the temerity to stand up to him. His references to opponents as "vermin" is straight out the Nazi playbook. The more his legal woes expand, the more authoritarian he becomes.

    There is polling to suggest that once his trials turn into sentences, a significant portion of his support melts away, giving Biden double-digit leads.

    I do admire your optimism, both in the case of a Trump defeat and a magnificent Conservative win. As one of life's glass half-empty exponents I take my hat off to you.

    The Clintons were in Swansea last week. Househunting in the Gower? It might have been handy if they were, as they would need to be not in the USA come January 2025. Same goes for the Obamas, the Bidens and several dozen other elite families. Trump has gone full frootloop.

    Why are the voters of the World turning to the terminally bonkers? Over to you Suella. Although under those circumstances, presumably the Clinton's would wind up in Rwanda.
    Maybe Leon's right and Western Democracy is in terminal decline, not because of woke but because people take it for granted and when it doesn't solve all their ills, assume there's another, better way. 1930s Germany was a preview.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,133
    edited November 2023
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Have arrived on The Beach from Alex Garland’s the Beach

    M’pai village on Koh Rong Sanloem. Lost to the world. Yet it has a wine and cheese bar. Dogs pant in the sun. Kids play in the sand. Everyone sleeps. You can get a really good pizza or watch the Khmer fishermen drink moonshine at noon

    It’s one of those places where you think if I lived here would I kill my self with boredom after a week or would I be tranquil and happy forever and ever

    Leon’s back. Can we be nicer to him today? He’s trying very hard and, in the circumstances, doing okay.

    Leon, I’m proud of you. The way you get knocked down on here, but keep coming back despite everything, is inspirational.
    Thanks. You’re still a simpleton, but “the admiration of a fool is better than gold from a rich man”

    That’s an old Khmer saying which I just made up
    Two three syllable words in one sentence! Bless. You’ll be tying your own shoelaces next.
  • Options
    On the other side of this Polymarket has Biden at 72% for the Dem nom. I think he's more like 90%. He just has to continue to want the job and not die.

    https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-the-us-2024-democratic-presidential-nomination

    There's also smart contract risk and oracle risk since it's crypto but reassuringly this system doesn't use my code in any way.
  • Options

    Leon said:

    Have arrived on The Beach from Alex Garland’s the Beach

    M’pai village on Koh Rong Sanloem. Lost to the world. Yet it has a wine and cheese bar. Dogs pant in the sun. Kids play in the sand. Everyone sleeps. You can get a really good pizza or watch the Khmer fishermen drink moonshine at noon

    It’s one of those places where you think if I lived here would I kill my self with boredom after a week or would I be tranquil and happy forever and ever

    I thought that on seeing (on television) Cliff Richard's Caribbean hideaway with its unrestricted view of the ocean from his bed. What do you look at after the first ten minutes?
    We often go to the same chalet on Cornwall's south coast for our summer holiday and it has a beautiful view right along the coast from Rame Head to Looe and beyond. I never get tired of looking at the view. Maybe it's because I grew up near the sea, but I always find myself drawn to the ocean and find its shifting moods and pallets endlessly fascinating.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,124
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Have arrived on The Beach from Alex Garland’s the Beach

    M’pai village on Koh Rong Sanloem. Lost to the world. Yet it has a wine and cheese bar. Dogs pant in the sun. Kids play in the sand. Everyone sleeps. You can get a really good pizza or watch the Khmer fishermen drink moonshine at noon

    It’s one of those places where you think if I lived here would I kill my self with boredom after a week or would I be tranquil and happy forever and ever

    Leon’s back. Can we be nicer to him today? He’s trying very hard and, in the circumstances, doing okay.

    Leon, I’m proud of you. The way you get knocked down on here, but keep coming back despite everything, is inspirational.
    Sorry about my outburst yesterday Doug. I momentarily thought I was signed into a political blog. But it turns out it's a travelog. I stand corrected.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    edited November 2023
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    It feels to me like any hope of an alternative candidate to Trump is futile and wishful thinking.

    I can’t see any way in which he doesn’t win the primaries, unless one of the many prosecutors can actually put him in prison with no phone and no rallies - and even then, there’s little evidence that locking him up will impact his popularity among the primary voters.

    Only a Convention stitch-up is going to prevent his nomination.
    They can't even do that as he'd stand as an independent and guarantee that the Republicans lose. So their choice is 50% chance (or maybe more) of winning with him vs 0% without him.
    Yep. Its why even those Republicans who are sick of him (which honestly is a minority in any case) almost all still back him, including those saying he is unfit to be President. Very very few will vote against or stay home.

    The hope is more actual voters will though. But he is supported enough that he can destroy the party and they know it.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,636
    edited November 2023

    On the other side of this Polymarket has Biden at 72% for the Dem nom. I think he's more like 90%. He just has to continue to want the job and not die.

    https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-the-us-2024-democratic-presidential-nomination

    There's also smart contract risk and oracle risk since it's crypto but reassuringly this system doesn't use my code in any way.

    I've said it before but if Biden had decided not to stand, when do you think he would have told us? (Clue: February next year.)

    That's a risk to your bet.

    (Edit: Someone should check out what Hunter's betting on.)
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993

    Leon said:

    Have arrived on The Beach from Alex Garland’s the Beach

    M’pai village on Koh Rong Sanloem. Lost to the world. Yet it has a wine and cheese bar. Dogs pant in the sun. Kids play in the sand. Everyone sleeps. You can get a really good pizza or watch the Khmer fishermen drink moonshine at noon

    It’s one of those places where you think if I lived here would I kill my self with boredom after a week or would I be tranquil and happy forever and ever

    I thought that on seeing (on television) Cliff Richard's Caribbean hideaway with its unrestricted view of the ocean from his bed. What do you look at after the first ten minutes?
    We often go to the same chalet on Cornwall's south coast for our summer holiday and it has a beautiful view right along the coast from Rame Head to Looe and beyond. I never get tired of looking at the view. Maybe it's because I grew up near the sea, but I always find myself drawn to the ocean and find its shifting moods and pallets endlessly fascinating.
    We discussed this previously on PB. There is something about the sea which is inherently mesmerising and soothing, at the same time, and yet never truly boring

    I do get the appeal of a sea view, completely
  • Options

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Have arrived on The Beach from Alex Garland’s the Beach

    M’pai village on Koh Rong Sanloem. Lost to the world. Yet it has a wine and cheese bar. Dogs pant in the sun. Kids play in the sand. Everyone sleeps. You can get a really good pizza or watch the Khmer fishermen drink moonshine at noon

    It’s one of those places where you think if I lived here would I kill my self with boredom after a week or would I be tranquil and happy forever and ever

    Leon’s back. Can we be nicer to him today? He’s trying very hard and, in the circumstances, doing okay.

    Leon, I’m proud of you. The way you get knocked down on here, but keep coming back despite everything, is inspirational.
    Sorry about my outburst yesterday Doug. I momentarily thought I was signed into a political blog. But it turns out it's a travelog. I stand corrected.
    Combine the two. Who is going to threaten to leave the county if X wins?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    Have arrived on The Beach from Alex Garland’s the Beach

    M’pai village on Koh Rong Sanloem. Lost to the world. Yet it has a wine and cheese bar. Dogs pant in the sun. Kids play in the sand. Everyone sleeps. You can get a really good pizza or watch the Khmer fishermen drink moonshine at noon

    It’s one of those places where you think if I lived here would I kill my self with boredom after a week or would I be tranquil and happy forever and ever

    I agree. KRS is the closest I've been to paradise, apart from the mosquitos. I spent a couple of weeks writing once. No distractions, gorgeous weather and a stunning beach. It was perfect.
    Ooh. You’ve been here? Where did you stay? What beach? What season?

    Do you think you could have endured 2 months without hanging yourself?

    A serious question. I normally go to Bangkok in the winter but hmmmmm
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Have arrived on The Beach from Alex Garland’s the Beach

    M’pai village on Koh Rong Sanloem. Lost to the world. Yet it has a wine and cheese bar. Dogs pant in the sun. Kids play in the sand. Everyone sleeps. You can get a really good pizza or watch the Khmer fishermen drink moonshine at noon

    It’s one of those places where you think if I lived here would I kill my self with boredom after a week or would I be tranquil and happy forever and ever

    I thought that on seeing (on television) Cliff Richard's Caribbean hideaway with its unrestricted view of the ocean from his bed. What do you look at after the first ten minutes?
    We often go to the same chalet on Cornwall's south coast for our summer holiday and it has a beautiful view right along the coast from Rame Head to Looe and beyond. I never get tired of looking at the view. Maybe it's because I grew up near the sea, but I always find myself drawn to the ocean and find its shifting moods and pallets endlessly fascinating.
    We discussed this previously on PB. There is something about the sea which is inherently mesmerising and soothing, at the same time, and yet never truly boring

    I do get the appeal of a sea view, completely
    Just the right balance of certainty and chance. Routine and variety. In the same way that a garden with a few different plants is nicer than a monoculture or a mess. Or a mature terrace where each house is similar but ever so slightly different.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,149
    edited November 2023

    On the other side of this Polymarket has Biden at 72% for the Dem nom. I think he's more like 90%. He just has to continue to want the job and not die.

    https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-the-us-2024-democratic-presidential-nomination

    There's also smart contract risk and oracle risk since it's crypto but reassuringly this system doesn't use my code in any way.

    I've said it before but if Biden had decided not to stand, when do you think he would have told us? (Clue: February next year.)

    That's a risk to your bet.

    (Edit: Someone should check out what Hunter's betting on.)
    I don't see why he'd announce February next year. I think there are two ways to not run without shafting his supporters: Announce a few months ago so his people can put up another candidate when there's still time to get on the ballot, or lock up the nomination first then have his delegates choose. In the second case, as I read it you'd still win the bet.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    edited November 2023

    Leon said:

    Have arrived on The Beach from Alex Garland’s the Beach

    M’pai village on Koh Rong Sanloem. Lost to the world. Yet it has a wine and cheese bar. Dogs pant in the sun. Kids play in the sand. Everyone sleeps. You can get a really good pizza or watch the Khmer fishermen drink moonshine at noon

    It’s one of those places where you think if I lived here would I kill my self with boredom after a week or would I be tranquil and happy forever and ever

    I thought that on seeing (on television) Cliff Richard's Caribbean hideaway with its unrestricted view of the ocean from his bed. What do you look at after the first ten minutes?
    We often go to the same chalet on Cornwall's south coast for our summer holiday and it has a beautiful view right along the coast from Rame Head to Looe and beyond. I never get tired of looking at the view. Maybe it's because I grew up near the sea, but I always find myself drawn to the ocean and find its shifting moods and pallets endlessly fascinating.
    This has been the view from our house for the past 13 years (well the mist comes and goes, obvs). I never thought we'd get bored with it and that's true...-ish, but we do find ourselves taking it for granted sadly.

    On the plus side, we've enjoyed it for that time and we'll be moving on next year for a new project. Time to let someone else enjoy the view.

    image
    That’s beautiful

    I’m trying to guess where. But it could be multiple places in southern England. Dorset? Sussex? Somerset?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    edited November 2023

    Trump is getting ever more extreme, moving towards an agenda that is dismantling the rule of law to go against anyone who has the temerity to stand up to him. His references to opponents as "vermin" is straight out the Nazi playbook. The more his legal woes expand, the more authoritarian he becomes.

    There is polling to suggest that once his trials turn into sentences, a significant portion of his support melts away, giving Biden double-digit leads.

    I don't believe that polling. His non criminal actions and words are so egregious that I don't think it will make a difference.

    I think it's how some people are self justifying continued support, but if it happens (which won't be until May/June) it will be so close to the election, after they've backed him with a primary vote, that they'll fall in line about biased judges, DC being 90% Democrat and so on.

    They already say that, which is preparation for rejecting the outcome.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    Trump is getting ever more extreme, moving towards an agenda that is dismantling the rule of law to go against anyone who has the temerity to stand up to him. His references to opponents as "vermin" is straight out the Nazi playbook. The more his legal woes expand, the more authoritarian he becomes.

    There is polling to suggest that once his trials turn into sentences, a significant portion of his support melts away, giving Biden double-digit leads.

    I do admire your optimism, both in the case of a Trump defeat and a magnificent Conservative win. As one of life's glass half-empty exponents I take my hat off to you.

    The Clintons were in Swansea last week. Househunting in the Gower? It might have been handy if they were, as they would need to be not in the USA come January 2025. Same goes for the Obamas, the Bidens and several dozen other elite families. Trump has gone full frootloop.

    Why are the voters of the World turning to the terminally bonkers? Over to you Suella. Although under those circumstances, presumably the Clinton's would wind up in Rwanda.
    I'm significanty more confident of a Trump loss than I am of a "magnificent Conservative win"! Very real chance that Trump isn't the Republican candidate. By the end of the year I expect Trump's New York operations to have been closed down, with reparations due to the state of at least $250M but probably nearer $500m. Any appeal will fail. As he loses his properties he will get ever more deranged.

    Many years of cooking the books - low values for property taxes, greatly inflated values for raising loans at preferential rates - will come back to bite him in the arse. The Dems will have a mass of attack material that will make the Moms and Pops supporters begin to think maybe they've been had by a snake-oil salesman. That is before the taxman starts taking a close look at his affairs.

    Trump will still no doubt stand as an independent. Which will be good news for the Republicans, long term but not in 2024.

    Ironically, if America turns back towards valuing democracy and away from would-be tin pot dicatators, then Trump will have done a great service to Make America Great Again. Just not how he envisioned it.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    No one here seems to do any actual work. Apart from the cement bag guys. Everyone else just lolls about

    THESE ARE MY PEOPLE. I HAVE COME HOME
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,403
    edited November 2023

    Leon said:

    Have arrived on The Beach from Alex Garland’s the Beach

    M’pai village on Koh Rong Sanloem. Lost to the world. Yet it has a wine and cheese bar. Dogs pant in the sun. Kids play in the sand. Everyone sleeps. You can get a really good pizza or watch the Khmer fishermen drink moonshine at noon

    It’s one of those places where you think if I lived here would I kill my self with boredom after a week or would I be tranquil and happy forever and ever

    I thought that on seeing (on television) Cliff Richard's Caribbean hideaway with its unrestricted view of the ocean from his bed. What do you look at after the first ten minutes?
    We often go to the same chalet on Cornwall's south coast for our summer holiday and it has a beautiful view right along the coast from Rame Head to Looe and beyond. I never get tired of looking at the view. Maybe it's because I grew up near the sea, but I always find myself drawn to the ocean and find its shifting moods and pallets endlessly fascinating.
    This has been the view from our house for the past 13 years (well the mist comes and goes, obvs). I never thought we'd get bored with it and that's true...-ish, but we do find ourselves taking it for granted sadly.

    On the plus side, we've enjoyed it for that time and we'll be moving on next year for a new project. Time to let someone else enjoy the view.

    image
    Lovely. Reminds me a bit of ours, but it's prettier (ours has fewer trees and no hill, but there's a little river and wetland which gives us low morning mist over the fields quite often).

    We do take it for granted, a bit. But there are times I just stand at the end of the garden and take it in - nice sunset, mist like that or if there are hares, deer or an owl to watch.

    I don't think I'd ever get bored of a sea view. It changes too much. There's a place we went to across from the summer isles where the living room was two storey height and all glass to the sea. We tried to watch films at night, but kept getting distracted by the view (west facing, so the added drama of the sun setting).

    ETA: The main reason we tried - and failed - to move house s couple of years back and ended upe extending was being unable to replicate the open outlook with our budget. We didn't find anything that compared that we could afford, so we stayed instead. Hope you are able to find somewhere that works.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Have arrived on The Beach from Alex Garland’s the Beach

    M’pai village on Koh Rong Sanloem. Lost to the world. Yet it has a wine and cheese bar. Dogs pant in the sun. Kids play in the sand. Everyone sleeps. You can get a really good pizza or watch the Khmer fishermen drink moonshine at noon

    It’s one of those places where you think if I lived here would I kill my self with boredom after a week or would I be tranquil and happy forever and ever

    I thought that on seeing (on television) Cliff Richard's Caribbean hideaway with its unrestricted view of the ocean from his bed. What do you look at after the first ten minutes?
    We often go to the same chalet on Cornwall's south coast for our summer holiday and it has a beautiful view right along the coast from Rame Head to Looe and beyond. I never get tired of looking at the view. Maybe it's because I grew up near the sea, but I always find myself drawn to the ocean and find its shifting moods and pallets endlessly fascinating.
    This has been the view from our house for the past 13 years (well the mist comes and goes, obvs). I never thought we'd get bored with it and that's true...-ish, but we do find ourselves taking it for granted sadly.

    On the plus side, we've enjoyed it for that time and we'll be moving on next year for a new project. Time to let someone else enjoy the view.

    image
    That’s beautiful

    I’m trying to guess where. But it could be multiple places in southern England. Dorset? Sussex? Somerset?
    Wiltunscir
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Have arrived on The Beach from Alex Garland’s the Beach

    M’pai village on Koh Rong Sanloem. Lost to the world. Yet it has a wine and cheese bar. Dogs pant in the sun. Kids play in the sand. Everyone sleeps. You can get a really good pizza or watch the Khmer fishermen drink moonshine at noon

    It’s one of those places where you think if I lived here would I kill my self with boredom after a week or would I be tranquil and happy forever and ever

    I thought that on seeing (on television) Cliff Richard's Caribbean hideaway with its unrestricted view of the ocean from his bed. What do you look at after the first ten minutes?
    We often go to the same chalet on Cornwall's south coast for our summer holiday and it has a beautiful view right along the coast from Rame Head to Looe and beyond. I never get tired of looking at the view. Maybe it's because I grew up near the sea, but I always find myself drawn to the ocean and find its shifting moods and pallets endlessly fascinating.
    This has been the view from our house for the past 13 years (well the mist comes and goes, obvs). I never thought we'd get bored with it and that's true...-ish, but we do find ourselves taking it for granted sadly.

    On the plus side, we've enjoyed it for that time and we'll be moving on next year for a new project. Time to let someone else enjoy the view.

    image
    That’s beautiful

    I’m trying to guess where. But it could be multiple places in southern England. Dorset? Sussex? Somerset?
    Wiltunscir
    Good guess

    England can be so beautiful. It just the damn climate November-early March. Which is unfortunately a fair chunk of the year
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,586

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    It feels to me like any hope of an alternative candidate to Trump is futile and wishful thinking.

    I can’t see any way in which he doesn’t win the primaries, unless one of the many prosecutors can actually put him in prison with no phone and no rallies - and even then, there’s little evidence that locking him up will impact his popularity among the primary voters.

    Only a Convention stitch-up is going to prevent his nomination.
    They can't even do that as he'd stand as an independent and guarantee that the Republicans lose. So their choice is 50% chance (or maybe more) of winning with him vs 0% without him.
    I can't speak for what's in his head but his options if he loses the primary are:

    1) Run as an independent, Biden wins, he goes to jail
    2) Support the nominee in return for a promise of a pardon, the nominee has at least a 50/50 shot of beating Biden, and they'd almost definitely keep their promise to pardon him

    Does he want to go to jail or does he want to go home?
    He’s a senile narcissist. I’m unclear why you’re expecting him to be a rational decision maker.
    IDK, it's always hard to tell how much calculation is going on with Trump. He managed to be president of America, he's leading the primary despite losing the election, and he's been doing shady things all his life while successfully escaping the consequences.

    He's an idiot but he's not stupid, if that makes sense.
    He’s been a narcissist all his life, but he hasn’t been senile all his life. He’s making more and more gaffes lately.
    Or look at how he’s behaved in the NY fraud trial, antagonising the judge, who is the decider of fact (as his lawyers forgot to ask for a jury). Is that a sensible game plan? See https://youtu.be/nPZPrs2Uf_g for a lawyer’s summary.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,969
    Leon said:

    Have arrived on The Beach from Alex Garland’s the Beach

    M’pai village on Koh Rong Sanloem. Lost to the world. Yet it has a wine and cheese bar. Dogs pant in the sun. Kids play in the sand. Everyone sleeps. You can get a really good pizza or watch the Khmer fishermen drink moonshine at noon

    It’s one of those places where you think if I lived here would I kill my self with boredom after a week or would I be tranquil and happy forever and ever

    Depends on the quality of the moonshine, surely?
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,969

    Leon said:

    Have arrived on The Beach from Alex Garland’s the Beach

    M’pai village on Koh Rong Sanloem. Lost to the world. Yet it has a wine and cheese bar. Dogs pant in the sun. Kids play in the sand. Everyone sleeps. You can get a really good pizza or watch the Khmer fishermen drink moonshine at noon

    It’s one of those places where you think if I lived here would I kill my self with boredom after a week or would I be tranquil and happy forever and ever

    I thought that on seeing (on television) Cliff Richard's Caribbean hideaway with its unrestricted view of the ocean from his bed. What do you look at after the first ten minutes?
    We have a sea view. It used to be the first thing I looked at each morning. Now it’s just a view.
  • Options

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    It feels to me like any hope of an alternative candidate to Trump is futile and wishful thinking.

    I can’t see any way in which he doesn’t win the primaries, unless one of the many prosecutors can actually put him in prison with no phone and no rallies - and even then, there’s little evidence that locking him up will impact his popularity among the primary voters.

    Only a Convention stitch-up is going to prevent his nomination.
    They can't even do that as he'd stand as an independent and guarantee that the Republicans lose. So their choice is 50% chance (or maybe more) of winning with him vs 0% without him.
    I can't speak for what's in his head but his options if he loses the primary are:

    1) Run as an independent, Biden wins, he goes to jail
    2) Support the nominee in return for a promise of a pardon, the nominee has at least a 50/50 shot of beating Biden, and they'd almost definitely keep their promise to pardon him

    Does he want to go to jail or does he want to go home?
    He’s a senile narcissist. I’m unclear why you’re expecting him to be a rational decision maker.
    IDK, it's always hard to tell how much calculation is going on with Trump. He managed to be president of America, he's leading the primary despite losing the election, and he's been doing shady things all his life while successfully escaping the consequences.

    He's an idiot but he's not stupid, if that makes sense.
    He’s been a narcissist all his life, but he hasn’t been senile all his life. He’s making more and more gaffes lately.
    Or look at how he’s behaved in the NY fraud trial, antagonising the judge, who is the decider of fact (as his lawyers forgot to ask for a jury). Is that a sensible game plan? See https://youtu.be/nPZPrs2Uf_g for a lawyer’s summary.
    Not gonna watch a video but yeah, it might be a sensible game plan. Make the judge angry and get them to do something dumb that will give him grounds for appeal, something like that.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,969

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Have arrived on The Beach from Alex Garland’s the Beach

    M’pai village on Koh Rong Sanloem. Lost to the world. Yet it has a wine and cheese bar. Dogs pant in the sun. Kids play in the sand. Everyone sleeps. You can get a really good pizza or watch the Khmer fishermen drink moonshine at noon

    It’s one of those places where you think if I lived here would I kill my self with boredom after a week or would I be tranquil and happy forever and ever

    We all know its
    … boredom? Probably

    There are too many people here weirdly keen to talk to me. That suggests not many outsiders and a lot of boredom

    And yet it is intensely seductive. M’pai right now. Rush hour




    Love the school desks in the sand vibe


    I must be getting old because I can imagine doing a whole winter here. January March. I’d probably get excited by the cement bag delivery
    Got yer tinnie there I see. Did they not have Tenants?
    Why would you spoil perfection by drinking Tennents?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993

    Leon said:

    Have arrived on The Beach from Alex Garland’s the Beach

    M’pai village on Koh Rong Sanloem. Lost to the world. Yet it has a wine and cheese bar. Dogs pant in the sun. Kids play in the sand. Everyone sleeps. You can get a really good pizza or watch the Khmer fishermen drink moonshine at noon

    It’s one of those places where you think if I lived here would I kill my self with boredom after a week or would I be tranquil and happy forever and ever

    I thought that on seeing (on television) Cliff Richard's Caribbean hideaway with its unrestricted view of the ocean from his bed. What do you look at after the first ten minutes?
    We have a sea view. It used to be the first thing I looked at each morning. Now it’s just a view.
    So even sea views get boring

    I guess it’s true of everything. That’s the restless human spirit

    As Pascal said, so much trouble stems from the fact humans can’t just sit in a room, quietly
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    It feels to me like any hope of an alternative candidate to Trump is futile and wishful thinking.

    I can’t see any way in which he doesn’t win the primaries, unless one of the many prosecutors can actually put him in prison with no phone and no rallies - and even then, there’s little evidence that locking him up will impact his popularity among the primary voters.

    Only a Convention stitch-up is going to prevent his nomination.
    They can't even do that as he'd stand as an independent and guarantee that the Republicans lose. So their choice is 50% chance (or maybe more) of winning with him vs 0% without him.
    I can't speak for what's in his head but his options if he loses the primary are:

    1) Run as an independent, Biden wins, he goes to jail
    2) Support the nominee in return for a promise of a pardon, the nominee has at least a 50/50 shot of beating Biden, and they'd almost definitely keep their promise to pardon him

    Does he want to go to jail or does he want to go home?
    He’s a senile narcissist. I’m unclear why you’re expecting him to be a rational decision maker.
    IDK, it's always hard to tell how much calculation is going on with Trump. He managed to be president of America, he's leading the primary despite losing the election, and he's been doing shady things all his life while successfully escaping the consequences.

    He's an idiot but he's not stupid, if that makes sense.
    He’s been a narcissist all his life, but he hasn’t been senile all his life. He’s making more and more gaffes lately.
    Or look at how he’s behaved in the NY fraud trial, antagonising the judge, who is the decider of fact (as his lawyers forgot to ask for a jury). Is that a sensible game plan? See https://youtu.be/nPZPrs2Uf_g for a lawyer’s summary.
    Not gonna watch a video but yeah, it might be a sensible game plan. Make the judge angry and get them to do something dumb that will give him grounds for appeal, something like that.
    Even if it does not work if he thinks he'd lose anyway its worth a gamble and works well for his fundraising efforts.

    It's so blatant though. Attack judges (apart from the accommodating judge Cannon) over and over, and even if they don't misstep use the fact he attacks them as proof they must hate him.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    edited November 2023
    Delete
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,907
    On topic: Probably not.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,504
    On R4 Today Trott (who presents well by the way) was majoring on Labour's plan to spend £28 billion on green stuff and its grave adverse consequences; she had less to say on last month's borrowing of £14 billion. Plenty more of this rubbish to come.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    Everyone in the village is excited because a dog just woke up
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Have arrived on The Beach from Alex Garland’s the Beach

    M’pai village on Koh Rong Sanloem. Lost to the world. Yet it has a wine and cheese bar. Dogs pant in the sun. Kids play in the sand. Everyone sleeps. You can get a really good pizza or watch the Khmer fishermen drink moonshine at noon

    It’s one of those places where you think if I lived here would I kill my self with boredom after a week or would I be tranquil and happy forever and ever

    I thought that on seeing (on television) Cliff Richard's Caribbean hideaway with its unrestricted view of the ocean from his bed. What do you look at after the first ten minutes?
    We have a sea view. It used to be the first thing I looked at each morning. Now it’s just a view.
    So even sea views get boring

    I guess it’s true of everything. That’s the restless human spirit

    As Pascal said, so much trouble stems from the fact humans can’t just sit in a room, quietly
    It makes us crave new things, so on balance great though.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,635
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    Nigelb said:

    Significant win for Biden.

    https://twitter.com/LaurenKGurley/status/1726607861093167353
    Ford, GM & Stellantis workers have voted by 64% in favor of ratifying their contract deals, UAW says.

    Contracts offer larger wage increases than UAW workers have received in the past 22 yrs combined.

    Close-ish vote likely due to very high expectations from members..

    Will he get any thanks though?

    America economy is doing pretty good yet ordinary joes are fed up and negative and think everything is going to shit economy wise. The polls just dont match the finance situation.

    There’s a lot more American people primarily feeling the negative effects of cumulative inflation, than there are feeling the positive effects of the economic recovery, even if on paper growth is up and inflation is down.
    Same here, feeling the negative effects of cumulative inflation, but with the addition of no economic recovery.

    It's the main reason that the polls are where they are.
    And the impact of current tax policy won't help: some perhaps surprising graphs here:

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/ng-interactive/2023/oct/02/uk-income-tax-how-fiscal-drag-leads-to-people-falling-into-higher-rates (later graphs seem to be blurred cos no hard data)

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/nov/21/pressure-grows-on-hunt-to-cut-income-tax-as-millions-more-face-paying-it
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,635
    Leon said:

    Everyone in the village is excited because a dog just woke up

    Are they talking to it?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,358
    edited November 2023
    Leon said:

    Everyone in the village is excited because a dog just woke up

    Is it a Bully XL?
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,141
    Leon said:

    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    Have arrived on The Beach from Alex Garland’s the Beach

    M’pai village on Koh Rong Sanloem. Lost to the world. Yet it has a wine and cheese bar. Dogs pant in the sun. Kids play in the sand. Everyone sleeps. You can get a really good pizza or watch the Khmer fishermen drink moonshine at noon

    It’s one of those places where you think if I lived here would I kill my self with boredom after a week or would I be tranquil and happy forever and ever

    I agree. KRS is the closest I've been to paradise, apart from the mosquitos. I spent a couple of weeks writing once. No distractions, gorgeous weather and a stunning beach. It was perfect.
    Ooh. You’ve been here? Where did you stay? What beach? What season?

    Do you think you could have endured 2 months without hanging yourself?

    A serious question. I normally go to Bangkok in the winter but hmmmmm
    I read, much of the night, and go south in the winter.

  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,586

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    It feels to me like any hope of an alternative candidate to Trump is futile and wishful thinking.

    I can’t see any way in which he doesn’t win the primaries, unless one of the many prosecutors can actually put him in prison with no phone and no rallies - and even then, there’s little evidence that locking him up will impact his popularity among the primary voters.

    Only a Convention stitch-up is going to prevent his nomination.
    They can't even do that as he'd stand as an independent and guarantee that the Republicans lose. So their choice is 50% chance (or maybe more) of winning with him vs 0% without him.
    I can't speak for what's in his head but his options if he loses the primary are:

    1) Run as an independent, Biden wins, he goes to jail
    2) Support the nominee in return for a promise of a pardon, the nominee has at least a 50/50 shot of beating Biden, and they'd almost definitely keep their promise to pardon him

    Does he want to go to jail or does he want to go home?
    He’s a senile narcissist. I’m unclear why you’re expecting him to be a rational decision maker.
    IDK, it's always hard to tell how much calculation is going on with Trump. He managed to be president of America, he's leading the primary despite losing the election, and he's been doing shady things all his life while successfully escaping the consequences.

    He's an idiot but he's not stupid, if that makes sense.
    He’s been a narcissist all his life, but he hasn’t been senile all his life. He’s making more and more gaffes lately.
    Or look at how he’s behaved in the NY fraud trial, antagonising the judge, who is the decider of fact (as his lawyers forgot to ask for a jury). Is that a sensible game plan? See https://youtu.be/nPZPrs2Uf_g for a lawyer’s summary.
    Not gonna watch a video but yeah, it might be a sensible game plan. Make the judge angry and get them to do something dumb that will give him grounds for appeal, something like that.
    And you think someone whose approach to a judge-decided trial is to piss off the judge is the sort of person whose approach to losing the primary will be to meekly accept the result?
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    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993

    Leon said:

    Everyone in the village is excited because a dog just woke up

    Is it a Bully XL?
    It’s this guy. He keeps making friends with me.

    I love dogs, me. Endless entertainment


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    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    ANOTHER delivery of cement bags!

    I make that two so far in barely 3 hours
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    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    It feels to me like any hope of an alternative candidate to Trump is futile and wishful thinking.

    I can’t see any way in which he doesn’t win the primaries, unless one of the many prosecutors can actually put him in prison with no phone and no rallies - and even then, there’s little evidence that locking him up will impact his popularity among the primary voters.

    Only a Convention stitch-up is going to prevent his nomination.
    They can't even do that as he'd stand as an independent and guarantee that the Republicans lose. So their choice is 50% chance (or maybe more) of winning with him vs 0% without him.
    I can't speak for what's in his head but his options if he loses the primary are:

    1) Run as an independent, Biden wins, he goes to jail
    2) Support the nominee in return for a promise of a pardon, the nominee has at least a 50/50 shot of beating Biden, and they'd almost definitely keep their promise to pardon him

    Does he want to go to jail or does he want to go home?
    He’s a senile narcissist. I’m unclear why you’re expecting him to be a rational decision maker.
    IDK, it's always hard to tell how much calculation is going on with Trump. He managed to be president of America, he's leading the primary despite losing the election, and he's been doing shady things all his life while successfully escaping the consequences.

    He's an idiot but he's not stupid, if that makes sense.
    He’s been a narcissist all his life, but he hasn’t been senile all his life. He’s making more and more gaffes lately.
    Or look at how he’s behaved in the NY fraud trial, antagonising the judge, who is the decider of fact (as his lawyers forgot to ask for a jury). Is that a sensible game plan? See https://youtu.be/nPZPrs2Uf_g for a lawyer’s summary.
    Not gonna watch a video but yeah, it might be a sensible game plan. Make the judge angry and get them to do something dumb that will give him grounds for appeal, something like that.
    And you think someone whose approach to a judge-decided trial is to piss off the judge is the sort of person whose approach to losing the primary will be to meekly accept the result?
    Don't know about meekly but yeah, Art of the Deal.
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    On topic: no.

    Haley might be the one to replace Trump should law or infirmity prevent his candidacy but she won't take him down - and if she doesn't take him down, and he doesn't quit, then either he wins the nomination or his primary opponent does.

    Put simply, if it becomes Trump v A N Other, then that battle squeezes the rest of the fight. If Haley isn't prepared to take on Trump directly, and she isn't, then she can't be the A N Other because that would leave Trump effectively unopposed.

    That said, even without Trump, I doubt Haley would be the selection. The two have history and Trump isn't a man to let a slight go lightly, even when he appears to in the short term for tactical reasons.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,586

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    It feels to me like any hope of an alternative candidate to Trump is futile and wishful thinking.

    I can’t see any way in which he doesn’t win the primaries, unless one of the many prosecutors can actually put him in prison with no phone and no rallies - and even then, there’s little evidence that locking him up will impact his popularity among the primary voters.

    Only a Convention stitch-up is going to prevent his nomination.
    They can't even do that as he'd stand as an independent and guarantee that the Republicans lose. So their choice is 50% chance (or maybe more) of winning with him vs 0% without him.
    I can't speak for what's in his head but his options if he loses the primary are:

    1) Run as an independent, Biden wins, he goes to jail
    2) Support the nominee in return for a promise of a pardon, the nominee has at least a 50/50 shot of beating Biden, and they'd almost definitely keep their promise to pardon him

    Does he want to go to jail or does he want to go home?
    He’s a senile narcissist. I’m unclear why you’re expecting him to be a rational decision maker.
    IDK, it's always hard to tell how much calculation is going on with Trump. He managed to be president of America, he's leading the primary despite losing the election, and he's been doing shady things all his life while successfully escaping the consequences.

    He's an idiot but he's not stupid, if that makes sense.
    He’s been a narcissist all his life, but he hasn’t been senile all his life. He’s making more and more gaffes lately.
    Or look at how he’s behaved in the NY fraud trial, antagonising the judge, who is the decider of fact (as his lawyers forgot to ask for a jury). Is that a sensible game plan? See https://youtu.be/nPZPrs2Uf_g for a lawyer’s summary.
    Not gonna watch a video but yeah, it might be a sensible game plan. Make the judge angry and get them to do something dumb that will give him grounds for appeal, something like that.
    And you think someone whose approach to a judge-decided trial is to piss off the judge is the sort of person whose approach to losing the primary will be to meekly accept the result?
    Don't know about meekly but yeah, Art of the Deal.
    Trump didn’t write Art of the Deal. It’s a slogan, not an actual description of what he does.

    He thinks the solution to problems is to show strength. If he wanted a comfortable life, he would have walked away from the 2020 election and got paid big bucks to appear on Fox News. I expect he will fight tooth and nail if he loses the Republican primary or the party otherwise blocks his candidacy.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    darkage said:

    It feels to me like any hope of an alternative candidate to Trump is futile and wishful thinking.

    I can’t see any way in which he doesn’t win the primaries, unless one of the many prosecutors can actually put him in prison with no phone and no rallies - and even then, there’s little evidence that locking him up will impact his popularity among the primary voters.

    Only a Convention stitch-up is going to prevent his nomination.
    They can't even do that as he'd stand as an independent and guarantee that the Republicans lose. So their choice is 50% chance (or maybe more) of winning with him vs 0% without him.
    I can't speak for what's in his head but his options if he loses the primary are:

    1) Run as an independent, Biden wins, he goes to jail
    2) Support the nominee in return for a promise of a pardon, the nominee has at least a 50/50 shot of beating Biden, and they'd almost definitely keep their promise to pardon him

    Does he want to go to jail or does he want to go home?
    He’s a senile narcissist. I’m unclear why you’re expecting him to be a rational decision maker.
    IDK, it's always hard to tell how much calculation is going on with Trump. He managed to be president of America, he's leading the primary despite losing the election, and he's been doing shady things all his life while successfully escaping the consequences.

    He's an idiot but he's not stupid, if that makes sense.
    He’s been a narcissist all his life, but he hasn’t been senile all his life. He’s making more and more gaffes lately.
    Or look at how he’s behaved in the NY fraud trial, antagonising the judge, who is the decider of fact (as his lawyers forgot to ask for a jury). Is that a sensible game plan? See https://youtu.be/nPZPrs2Uf_g for a lawyer’s summary.
    Not gonna watch a video but yeah, it might be a sensible game plan. Make the judge angry and get them to do something dumb that will give him grounds for appeal, something like that.
    But it's not working. The judge just shrugged his shoulders when Trump Jr. spent a morning on the history of the Trump dynasty, of zero relevance to the issue of criminal intent before the court.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Have arrived on The Beach from Alex Garland’s the Beach

    M’pai village on Koh Rong Sanloem. Lost to the world. Yet it has a wine and cheese bar. Dogs pant in the sun. Kids play in the sand. Everyone sleeps. You can get a really good pizza or watch the Khmer fishermen drink moonshine at noon

    It’s one of those places where you think if I lived here would I kill my self with boredom after a week or would I be tranquil and happy forever and ever

    I thought that on seeing (on television) Cliff Richard's Caribbean hideaway with its unrestricted view of the ocean from his bed. What do you look at after the first ten minutes?
    We often go to the same chalet on Cornwall's south coast for our summer holiday and it has a beautiful view right along the coast from Rame Head to Looe and beyond. I never get tired of looking at the view. Maybe it's because I grew up near the sea, but I always find myself drawn to the ocean and find its shifting moods and pallets endlessly fascinating.
    This has been the view from our house for the past 13 years (well the mist comes and goes, obvs). I never thought we'd get bored with it and that's true...-ish, but we do find ourselves taking it for granted sadly.

    On the plus side, we've enjoyed it for that time and we'll be moving on next year for a new project. Time to let someone else enjoy the view.

    image
    That’s beautiful

    I’m trying to guess where. But it could be multiple places in southern England. Dorset? Sussex? Somerset?
    It also looks rather like the Scottish borders. Say around Ecclefechan.
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    theakestheakes Posts: 841
    She will probably win the Iowa Republican caucus.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980
    I doubt it, she is too moderate for most Republicans in their current moo. Trump also has such a big lead in state and primary polls hard to see that being overturned.

    The only way that may be challenged is if he loses his civil and criminal cases, is convicted and jailed and fails to win the GOP nomination outright. The nominee is then chosen after a deadlocked conversation in the summer
This discussion has been closed.