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When will the Tories poll 30% or more again? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,014
edited November 2023 in General
imageWhen will the Tories poll 30% or more again? – politicalbetting.com

The last poll that the Tories on 30% or higher was the More In Common, conducted on the 14th to the 16th of October. Being stuck in the 20s for a month constitutes a rut.

Read the full story here

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    First?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,906
    2025 ?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,189
    Not sure it will be this side of the election to be honest. People want a change and Rishi is not the change we are looking for.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,178
    Not for a while. Probably in the election itself where they're likely to get 31-32%.

    And, FPT

    Incidentally to build on our discussion yesterday:

    Ofsted 'seen as toxic' and schools should 'self-evaluate' instead, says inquiry
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-67449711

    First off, its premise is right but I think its conclusions miss the point. OFSTED is toxic and has to go. Pre-written reports by safeguarding risks based on a series of foolish tick boxes are as useless as Susan Acland-Hood, and certainly militate against good education.

    However, self-evaluation would mean very often no evaluation. Everybody should have a second check. There are ways that could be done constructively rather than punitively, as at present, but it should happen.

    Second, they overlook the issues in Ofsted's structure, which is careless. I suspect it's because the person chairing the report was responsible as Schools Minister for adding to its remit with such catastrophic results.

    However, we then come back to the significance of this. Lord Knight is a Labour peer and has shared platforms with Keir Starmer in the past. He's also a senior figure at the TES and a Fellow of the Institute for Education. He is very well-connected and if he's calling for OFSTED to be fundamentally reformed it suggests its days are numbered.
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    I think it's likely the Tories get 30-35% of the vote in the GE and so we should see polls in that kind of region beforehand, at some point. If the economic picture worsens first, as I expect, it could take a while, though. If we're talking one or two isolated polls at 30+ then it could be anytime, if we're talking a consistent picture I'll say Q2 next year.
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    I think we’ll see the Reform share drift back to the Tories in the run-up to the election. Whether that’s enough to get them back in the 30s, who knows. Sunak hasn’t shown any signs of having the political ability required for a recovery.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,575
    There will be an outlying poll at some point purely by chance with the Tories over 30%.

    Otherwise I wouldn't expect one this side of the actual campaign.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938
    I'm going for next week.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,189
    Milei wins comfortably in Argentina. The BBC call him a far right outsider but their evidence for that seems to amount to not much more than Trump likes him: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67470549

    He has talked of abandoning the Argentine currency and dollarisation as a means of stopping runaway inflation, currently 140%. There is no doubt that the fiscal and monetary policies of Argentina have been disastrous. It will be interesting to see how he does.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,189
    It also looks as if Altman is on his way back in to OpenAI https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67470614

    It looks as if investors are worried about the forthcoming share issues which should provide liquidity in the stock and heaps of mullah for them.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,178
    DavidL said:

    Milei wins comfortably in Argentina. The BBC call him a far right outsider but their evidence for that seems to amount to not much more than Trump likes him: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67470549

    He has talked of abandoning the Argentine currency and dollarisation as a means of stopping runaway inflation, currently 140%. There is no doubt that the fiscal and monetary policies of Argentina have been disastrous. It will be interesting to see how he does.

    Almost certainly very badly.

    But, truthfully, so would his opponent have done. It will be interesting to see whether he does as badly or worse.
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,339
    Next week
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    The wikiworm average went below 30% during the Trusstershambles and hasn't risen above it since. Even during that bit in the Spring when the Conservatives seemed to be getting things together, they maxed out around 29%;

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    It RegUK implode, the Conservatives get above 30% then. Otherwise, I'm not sure they do until their new leader gets a honeymoon.

    As for a tax cutting bonanza (as opposed to aspirations for a fifth term that won't happen), how do they afford it?
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    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    DavidL said:

    Milei wins comfortably in Argentina. The BBC call him a far right outsider but their evidence for that seems to amount to not much more than Trump likes him: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67470549

    He has talked of abandoning the Argentine currency and dollarisation as a means of stopping runaway inflation, currently 140%. There is no doubt that the fiscal and monetary policies of Argentina have been disastrous. It will be interesting to see how he does.

    There are plenty of other reasons to call him far right - he hates abortion, favours tearing up gun laws and wants to take a chainsaw to the bloated Argentinian state. But I suppose the BBC was just being lazy and sloppy as so often when writing about movements they don't really understand.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,189
    Fishing said:

    DavidL said:

    Milei wins comfortably in Argentina. The BBC call him a far right outsider but their evidence for that seems to amount to not much more than Trump likes him: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67470549

    He has talked of abandoning the Argentine currency and dollarisation as a means of stopping runaway inflation, currently 140%. There is no doubt that the fiscal and monetary policies of Argentina have been disastrous. It will be interesting to see how he does.

    There are plenty of other reasons to call him far right - he hates abortion, favours tearing up gun laws and wants to take a chainsaw to the bloated Argentinian state. But I suppose the BBC was just being lazy and sloppy as so often when writing about movements they don't really understand.
    I understand that he has threatened to blow up the central bank, blaming them for the inflation. Their performance seems even worse than that of the BoE. Quite remarkable.
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    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,585
    edited November 2023
    DavidL said:

    Milei wins comfortably in Argentina. The BBC call him a far right outsider but their evidence for that seems to amount to not much more than Trump likes him: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67470549

    He has talked of abandoning the Argentine currency and dollarisation as a means of stopping runaway inflation, currently 140%. There is no doubt that the fiscal and monetary policies of Argentina have been disastrous. It will be interesting to see how he does.

    The BBC aren’t the only organisation to call him far right. He was a member of Avanza Libertad, which also included neo-Nazis.

    He wants to ban abortion, liberalise gun laws, and allow a free trade in human organs. He says climate change has been invented by “neo-Marxists”, goes on about “cultural Marxism” and wants to ban sex education in schools. He wants to remove trade union rights. He’s anti-immigration. His rhetoric is about attacking the political elite. He is friends not just with Trump, but with the likes of Vox in Spain and Bolsonaro in Brazil. He also says he has conversations with God and can communicate with dogs through a mystic, although that’s not a specifically far right position.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993

    DavidL said:

    Milei wins comfortably in Argentina. The BBC call him a far right outsider but their evidence for that seems to amount to not much more than Trump likes him: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67470549

    He has talked of abandoning the Argentine currency and dollarisation as a means of stopping runaway inflation, currently 140%. There is no doubt that the fiscal and monetary policies of Argentina have been disastrous. It will be interesting to see how he does.

    The BBC aren’t the only organisation to call him far right. He was a member of Avanza Libertad, which also included neo-Nazis.

    He wants to ban abortion, liberalise gun laws, and allow a free trade in human organs. He says climate change has been invented by “neo-Marxists”, goes on about “cultural Marxism” and wants to ban sex education in schools. He wants to remove trade union rights. He’s anti-immigration. His rhetoric is about attacking the political elite. He is friends not just with Trump, but with the likes of Vox in Spain and Bolsonaro in Brazil. He also says he has conversations with God and can communicate with dogs through a mystic, although that’s not a specifically far right position.
    He sounds FUN
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,189

    DavidL said:

    Milei wins comfortably in Argentina. The BBC call him a far right outsider but their evidence for that seems to amount to not much more than Trump likes him: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67470549

    He has talked of abandoning the Argentine currency and dollarisation as a means of stopping runaway inflation, currently 140%. There is no doubt that the fiscal and monetary policies of Argentina have been disastrous. It will be interesting to see how he does.

    The BBC aren’t the only organisation to call him far right. He was a member of Avanza Libertad, which also included neo-Nazis.

    He wants to ban abortion, liberalise gun laws, and allow a free trade in human organs. He says climate change has been invented by “neo-Marxists”, goes on about “cultural Marxism” and wants to ban sex education in schools. He wants to remove trade union rights. He’s anti-immigration. His rhetoric is about attacking the political elite. He is friends not just with Trump, but with the likes of Vox in Spain and Bolosonaro in Brazil. He also says he has conversations with God and can communicate with dogs through a mystic, although that’s not a specifically far right position.
    Nah, from what I have seen more than half of the masses of dog owners in our village think that they should be talking to their dog as if it is a child and understands more than the tone of what they are saying.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    edited November 2023
    DavidL said:

    It also looks as if Altman is on his way back in to OpenAI https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67470614

    It looks as if investors are worried about the forthcoming share issues which should provide liquidity in the stock and heaps of mullah for them.

    Er, the headline and article says the opposite. Altman is out, for good, it seems - despite an attempt to reinstate him

    The amazing thing here is that the OpenAI board have stuck to their guns, despite vehement opposition from their 49% shareholder - Microsoft

    You have to be really determined, to anger and alienate Microsoft, esp if they own nearly half your company

    This is why there are lurid rumours of AGI’s arrival, imminent or maybe already
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,593
    The majority of polls in December will have the Tories on 30% plus.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,189
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    It also looks as if Altman is on his way back in to OpenAI https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67470614

    It looks as if investors are worried about the forthcoming share issues which should provide liquidity in the stock and heaps of mullah for them.

    Er, the headline and article says the opposite. Altman is out, for good, it seems - despite an attempt to reinstate him

    The amazing thing here is that the OpenAI board have stuck to their guns, despite vehement opposition from their 49% shareholder - Microsoft

    You have to be really determined, to anger and alienate Microsoft, esp if they own nearly half your company

    This is why there are lurid rumours of AGI’s arrival, imminent or maybe already
    Looking at the media the picture seems unclear with several saying he is coming back and possibly the majority saying that will not happen. I suspect it depends on who your source is but making a decision like that without the major shareholders being signed up for it seems a remarkable thing for the Board to do.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,585
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Milei wins comfortably in Argentina. The BBC call him a far right outsider but their evidence for that seems to amount to not much more than Trump likes him: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67470549

    He has talked of abandoning the Argentine currency and dollarisation as a means of stopping runaway inflation, currently 140%. There is no doubt that the fiscal and monetary policies of Argentina have been disastrous. It will be interesting to see how he does.

    The BBC aren’t the only organisation to call him far right. He was a member of Avanza Libertad, which also included neo-Nazis.

    He wants to ban abortion, liberalise gun laws, and allow a free trade in human organs. He says climate change has been invented by “neo-Marxists”, goes on about “cultural Marxism” and wants to ban sex education in schools. He wants to remove trade union rights. He’s anti-immigration. His rhetoric is about attacking the political elite. He is friends not just with Trump, but with the likes of Vox in Spain and Bolosonaro in Brazil. He also says he has conversations with God and can communicate with dogs through a mystic, although that’s not a specifically far right position.
    Nah, from what I have seen more than half of the masses of dog owners in our village think that they should be talking to their dog as if it is a child and understands more than the tone of what they are saying.
    He believes his favourite dog was reincarnated from a lion he met when he was a gladiator in ancient Rome.

    In terms of other far right policies, he toyed with the idea of letting people sell their children, but had to walk back those remarks. He wants to transfer the penitentiary system to military control. He called the Pope an “envoy of Satan”, but later apologised for that.

    Oh, and the final damning proof of his idiocy is that he’s a big fan of Bitcoin.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,465
    ydoethur said:

    Not for a while. Probably in the election itself where they're likely to get 31-32%.

    And, FPT

    Incidentally to build on our discussion yesterday:

    Ofsted 'seen as toxic' and schools should 'self-evaluate' instead, says inquiry
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-67449711

    First off, its premise is right but I think its conclusions miss the point. OFSTED is toxic and has to go. Pre-written reports by safeguarding risks based on a series of foolish tick boxes are as useless as Susan Acland-Hood, and certainly militate against good education.

    However, self-evaluation would mean very often no evaluation. Everybody should have a second check. There are ways that could be done constructively rather than punitively, as at present, but it should happen.

    Second, they overlook the issues in Ofsted's structure, which is careless. I suspect it's because the person chairing the report was responsible as Schools Minister for adding to its remit with such catastrophic results.

    However, we then come back to the significance of this. Lord Knight is a Labour peer and has shared platforms with Keir Starmer in the past. He's also a senior figure at the TES and a Fellow of the Institute for Education. He is very well-connected and if he's calling for OFSTED to be fundamentally reformed it suggests its days are numbered.

    It certainly needs massive reform; probably splitting into separate organisations to perform its very different roles.

    The government's answer to criticisms appears solely to consist in saying that it performs an essential role.
    Truly pathetic.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,465
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    It also looks as if Altman is on his way back in to OpenAI https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67470614

    It looks as if investors are worried about the forthcoming share issues which should provide liquidity in the stock and heaps of mullah for them.

    Er, the headline and article says the opposite. Altman is out, for good, it seems - despite an attempt to reinstate him

    The amazing thing here is that the OpenAI board have stuck to their guns, despite vehement opposition from their 49% shareholder - Microsoft

    You have to be really determined, to anger and alienate Microsoft, esp if they own nearly half your company

    This is why there are lurid rumours of AGI’s arrival, imminent or maybe already
    Looking at the media the picture seems unclear with several saying he is coming back and possibly the majority saying that will not happen. I suspect it depends on who your source is but making a decision like that without the major shareholders being signed up for it seems a remarkable thing for the Board to do.
    Whichever way it goes, there are likely to be many defections - probably to a new startup.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    It also looks as if Altman is on his way back in to OpenAI https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67470614

    It looks as if investors are worried about the forthcoming share issues which should provide liquidity in the stock and heaps of mullah for them.

    Er, the headline and article says the opposite. Altman is out, for good, it seems - despite an attempt to reinstate him

    The amazing thing here is that the OpenAI board have stuck to their guns, despite vehement opposition from their 49% shareholder - Microsoft

    You have to be really determined, to anger and alienate Microsoft, esp if they own nearly half your company

    This is why there are lurid rumours of AGI’s arrival, imminent or maybe already
    Looking at the media the picture seems unclear with several saying he is coming back and possibly the majority saying that will not happen. I suspect it depends on who your source is but making a decision like that without the major shareholders being signed up for it seems a remarkable thing for the Board to do.
    He’s out, as things stand

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/20/technology/openai-altman-ceo-not-returning.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/nov/20/sam-altman-openai-ceo-wont-return-chatgpt-talks-fail-emmett-shear-twitch?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    A massive rift in the company, which might be best explained as: some of them believe they have achieved AGI (and maybe some don’t). The constitution of OpenAI almost demands ructions at that point

    Tellingly, the guy they’ve appointed to replace Sam Altman is a known techno-pessimist - wants to slow down AI research as he sees it as very dangerous. This would also accord with the idea they’ve attained AGI, or are notably close
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,465
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Milei wins comfortably in Argentina. The BBC call him a far right outsider but their evidence for that seems to amount to not much more than Trump likes him: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67470549

    He has talked of abandoning the Argentine currency and dollarisation as a means of stopping runaway inflation, currently 140%. There is no doubt that the fiscal and monetary policies of Argentina have been disastrous. It will be interesting to see how he does.

    The BBC aren’t the only organisation to call him far right. He was a member of Avanza Libertad, which also included neo-Nazis.

    He wants to ban abortion, liberalise gun laws, and allow a free trade in human organs. He says climate change has been invented by “neo-Marxists”, goes on about “cultural Marxism” and wants to ban sex education in schools. He wants to remove trade union rights. He’s anti-immigration. His rhetoric is about attacking the political elite. He is friends not just with Trump, but with the likes of Vox in Spain and Bolsonaro in Brazil. He also says he has conversations with God and can communicate with dogs through a mystic, although that’s not a specifically far right position.
    He sounds FUN
    Yes, you enjoy political chaos.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    It also looks as if Altman is on his way back in to OpenAI https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67470614

    It looks as if investors are worried about the forthcoming share issues which should provide liquidity in the stock and heaps of mullah for them.

    Er, the headline and article says the opposite. Altman is out, for good, it seems - despite an attempt to reinstate him

    The amazing thing here is that the OpenAI board have stuck to their guns, despite vehement opposition from their 49% shareholder - Microsoft

    You have to be really determined, to anger and alienate Microsoft, esp if they own nearly half your company

    This is why there are lurid rumours of AGI’s arrival, imminent or maybe already
    Looking at the media the picture seems unclear with several saying he is coming back and possibly the majority saying that will not happen. I suspect it depends on who your source is but making a decision like that without the major shareholders being signed up for it seems a remarkable thing for the Board to do.
    Whichever way it goes, there are likely to be many defections - probably to a new startup.
    The actions of Microsoft will be fascinating. They’ve invested $10bn in OpenAI, and they want the genius kid at the helm. They are gonna be fucked OFF

    Microsoft shares are down 7% since Altman got fired
  • Options

    DavidL said:

    Milei wins comfortably in Argentina. The BBC call him a far right outsider but their evidence for that seems to amount to not much more than Trump likes him: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67470549

    He has talked of abandoning the Argentine currency and dollarisation as a means of stopping runaway inflation, currently 140%. There is no doubt that the fiscal and monetary policies of Argentina have been disastrous. It will be interesting to see how he does.

    The BBC aren’t the only organisation to call him far right. He was a member of Avanza Libertad, which also included neo-Nazis.

    He wants to ban abortion, liberalise gun laws, and allow a free trade in human organs. He says climate change has been invented by “neo-Marxists”, goes on about “cultural Marxism” and wants to ban sex education in schools. He wants to remove trade union rights. He’s anti-immigration. His rhetoric is about attacking the political elite. He is friends not just with Trump, but with the likes of Vox in Spain and Bolsonaro in Brazil. He also says he has conversations with God and can communicate with dogs through a mystic, although that’s not a specifically far right position.
    Sensible policies for a happier Argentina. Or possibly yet another economic slide with added social friction.
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    Suella Braverman is a risk to national security, I have sacked people for doing this.

    Suella Braverman, the former home secretary, forwarded government documents to her private email account while serving as attorney-general, risking a breach of the ministerial code, a freedom of information disclosure shows.

    Braverman was sacked by Rishi Sunak on November 13 after comments she made in a column for The Times condemning pro-Palestinian protests as “hate marches” and accusing the Metropolitan Police of “playing favourites”.

    It is not the first time that her inappropriate use of private email has been uncovered. She was forced to resign from Liz Truss’s cabinet in October last year when she was found to have breached security provisions of the code by forwarding a draft ministerial statement from her personal email address to Sir John Hayes, a fellow right-wing Tory MP.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/suella-braverman-private-email-government-business-attorney-general-k0qsmsmqs
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    The majority of polls in December will have the Tories on 30% plus.

    The Dave effect.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 9,552

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Milei wins comfortably in Argentina. The BBC call him a far right outsider but their evidence for that seems to amount to not much more than Trump likes him: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67470549

    He has talked of abandoning the Argentine currency and dollarisation as a means of stopping runaway inflation, currently 140%. There is no doubt that the fiscal and monetary policies of Argentina have been disastrous. It will be interesting to see how he does.

    The BBC aren’t the only organisation to call him far right. He was a member of Avanza Libertad, which also included neo-Nazis.

    He wants to ban abortion, liberalise gun laws, and allow a free trade in human organs. He says climate change has been invented by “neo-Marxists”, goes on about “cultural Marxism” and wants to ban sex education in schools. He wants to remove trade union rights. He’s anti-immigration. His rhetoric is about attacking the political elite. He is friends not just with Trump, but with the likes of Vox in Spain and Bolosonaro in Brazil. He also says he has conversations with God and can communicate with dogs through a mystic, although that’s not a specifically far right position.
    Nah, from what I have seen more than half of the masses of dog owners in our village think that they should be talking to their dog as if it is a child and understands more than the tone of what they are saying.
    He believes his favourite dog was reincarnated from a lion he met when he was a gladiator in ancient Rome.

    In terms of other far right policies, he toyed with the idea of letting people sell their children, but had to walk back those remarks. He wants to transfer the penitentiary system to military control. He called the Pope an “envoy of Satan”, but later apologised for that.

    Oh, and the final damning proof of his idiocy is that he’s a big fan of Bitcoin.
    Yet further proof that electorates will vote for complete loons if they have a modicum of charisma and the opposition are ineffectual. It seems to happen increasingly often in systems where the political parties don’t have strong institutional governance, or individuals can stand outside party control.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,465
    If you're wondering why the Twitter/Brand X feed is suddenly showing so much pro-Trump January 6 denialism ... @semafor has an amazing story that CEO Linda Yaccarino has put her own son in charge of selling Twitter advertising to GOP candidates in hope of a 2024 windfall
    https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1726389948318617749

    Probably less disposed to boycott X for Elon's flirtation with antisemitism, too.
  • Options
    So expect a lot of pro Man City content in The Telegraph.

    The Abu Dhabi-backed investment fund RedBird IMI is in line to take control of The Telegraph within weeks in a deal that is causing concern among Conservative MPs.

    RedBird IMI would serve as a conduit for a £1.2bn loan, mostly provided by the Emirati royal and Manchester City owner Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, which would allow the Barclay family to repay in full a debt to Lloyds Banking Group.

    It is understood that almost as soon as that deal is completed, the loan would be converted to shares, making RedBird IMI owner of The Telegraph.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/11/19/telegraph-new-owner-abu-dhabi-backed-fund-redbird/
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,465
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    It also looks as if Altman is on his way back in to OpenAI https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67470614

    It looks as if investors are worried about the forthcoming share issues which should provide liquidity in the stock and heaps of mullah for them.

    Er, the headline and article says the opposite. Altman is out, for good, it seems - despite an attempt to reinstate him

    The amazing thing here is that the OpenAI board have stuck to their guns, despite vehement opposition from their 49% shareholder - Microsoft

    You have to be really determined, to anger and alienate Microsoft, esp if they own nearly half your company

    This is why there are lurid rumours of AGI’s arrival, imminent or maybe already
    Looking at the media the picture seems unclear with several saying he is coming back and possibly the majority saying that will not happen. I suspect it depends on who your source is but making a decision like that without the major shareholders being signed up for it seems a remarkable thing for the Board to do.
    Whichever way it goes, there are likely to be many defections - probably to a new startup.
    The actions of Microsoft will be fascinating. They’ve invested $10bn in OpenAI, and they want the genius kid at the helm. They are gonna be fucked OFF

    Microsoft shares are down 7% since Altman got fired
    A competitor with half of their best talent going to it seems fairly likely.
    Perhaps much they can do about that.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,465
    TimS said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Milei wins comfortably in Argentina. The BBC call him a far right outsider but their evidence for that seems to amount to not much more than Trump likes him: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67470549

    He has talked of abandoning the Argentine currency and dollarisation as a means of stopping runaway inflation, currently 140%. There is no doubt that the fiscal and monetary policies of Argentina have been disastrous. It will be interesting to see how he does.

    The BBC aren’t the only organisation to call him far right. He was a member of Avanza Libertad, which also included neo-Nazis.

    He wants to ban abortion, liberalise gun laws, and allow a free trade in human organs. He says climate change has been invented by “neo-Marxists”, goes on about “cultural Marxism” and wants to ban sex education in schools. He wants to remove trade union rights. He’s anti-immigration. His rhetoric is about attacking the political elite. He is friends not just with Trump, but with the likes of Vox in Spain and Bolosonaro in Brazil. He also says he has conversations with God and can communicate with dogs through a mystic, although that’s not a specifically far right position.
    Nah, from what I have seen more than half of the masses of dog owners in our village think that they should be talking to their dog as if it is a child and understands more than the tone of what they are saying.
    He believes his favourite dog was reincarnated from a lion he met when he was a gladiator in ancient Rome.

    In terms of other far right policies, he toyed with the idea of letting people sell their children, but had to walk back those remarks. He wants to transfer the penitentiary system to military control. He called the Pope an “envoy of Satan”, but later apologised for that.

    Oh, and the final damning proof of his idiocy is that he’s a big fan of Bitcoin.
    Yet further proof that electorates will vote for complete loons if they have a modicum of charisma and the opposition are ineffectual. It seems to happen increasingly often in systems where the political parties don’t have strong institutional governance, or individuals can stand outside party control.
    Seems like a man with a plan.
    https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1726386355717251408

    Privatisation of 'thievery', as far as I can see.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Milei wins comfortably in Argentina. The BBC call him a far right outsider but their evidence for that seems to amount to not much more than Trump likes him: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67470549

    He has talked of abandoning the Argentine currency and dollarisation as a means of stopping runaway inflation, currently 140%. There is no doubt that the fiscal and monetary policies of Argentina have been disastrous. It will be interesting to see how he does.

    The BBC aren’t the only organisation to call him far right. He was a member of Avanza Libertad, which also included neo-Nazis.

    He wants to ban abortion, liberalise gun laws, and allow a free trade in human organs. He says climate change has been invented by “neo-Marxists”, goes on about “cultural Marxism” and wants to ban sex education in schools. He wants to remove trade union rights. He’s anti-immigration. His rhetoric is about attacking the political elite. He is friends not just with Trump, but with the likes of Vox in Spain and Bolsonaro in Brazil. He also says he has conversations with God and can communicate with dogs through a mystic, although that’s not a specifically far right position.
    He sounds FUN
    Yes, you enjoy political chaos.
    Honestly, political chaos is gonna be a pleasant and diverting sideshow if we really have achieved AGI as a species

    IF - and of course it is a massive IF - this proves to be the case, this article from the Speccie three weeks ago looks remarkably prescient

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-is-too-late-the-ai-monster-is-at-the-door/
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,960

    So expect a lot of pro Man City content in The Telegraph.

    The Abu Dhabi-backed investment fund RedBird IMI is in line to take control of The Telegraph within weeks in a deal that is causing concern among Conservative MPs.

    RedBird IMI would serve as a conduit for a £1.2bn loan, mostly provided by the Emirati royal and Manchester City owner Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, which would allow the Barclay family to repay in full a debt to Lloyds Banking Group.

    It is understood that almost as soon as that deal is completed, the loan would be converted to shares, making RedBird IMI owner of The Telegraph.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/11/19/telegraph-new-owner-abu-dhabi-backed-fund-redbird/

    Would that mean Lady Barclay was paid? (see Private Eye on numerous occasions)
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,585
    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Milei wins comfortably in Argentina. The BBC call him a far right outsider but their evidence for that seems to amount to not much more than Trump likes him: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67470549

    He has talked of abandoning the Argentine currency and dollarisation as a means of stopping runaway inflation, currently 140%. There is no doubt that the fiscal and monetary policies of Argentina have been disastrous. It will be interesting to see how he does.

    The BBC aren’t the only organisation to call him far right. He was a member of Avanza Libertad, which also included neo-Nazis.

    He wants to ban abortion, liberalise gun laws, and allow a free trade in human organs. He says climate change has been invented by “neo-Marxists”, goes on about “cultural Marxism” and wants to ban sex education in schools. He wants to remove trade union rights. He’s anti-immigration. His rhetoric is about attacking the political elite. He is friends not just with Trump, but with the likes of Vox in Spain and Bolosonaro in Brazil. He also says he has conversations with God and can communicate with dogs through a mystic, although that’s not a specifically far right position.
    Nah, from what I have seen more than half of the masses of dog owners in our village think that they should be talking to their dog as if it is a child and understands more than the tone of what they are saying.
    He believes his favourite dog was reincarnated from a lion he met when he was a gladiator in ancient Rome.

    In terms of other far right policies, he toyed with the idea of letting people sell their children, but had to walk back those remarks. He wants to transfer the penitentiary system to military control. He called the Pope an “envoy of Satan”, but later apologised for that.

    Oh, and the final damning proof of his idiocy is that he’s a big fan of Bitcoin.
    Yet further proof that electorates will vote for complete loons if they have a modicum of charisma and the opposition are ineffectual. It seems to happen increasingly often in systems where the political parties don’t have strong institutional governance, or individuals can stand outside party control.
    Seems like a man with a plan.
    https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1726386355717251408

    Privatisation of 'thievery', as far as I can see.
    He’s walked back plans to privatise health and schools. The thing is, his party is nowhere near controlling the legislature, so hopefully, for the people of Argentina, he’ll be limited in what he can do.
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Milei wins comfortably in Argentina. The BBC call him a far right outsider but their evidence for that seems to amount to not much more than Trump likes him: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67470549

    He has talked of abandoning the Argentine currency and dollarisation as a means of stopping runaway inflation, currently 140%. There is no doubt that the fiscal and monetary policies of Argentina have been disastrous. It will be interesting to see how he does.

    The BBC aren’t the only organisation to call him far right. He was a member of Avanza Libertad, which also included neo-Nazis.

    He wants to ban abortion, liberalise gun laws, and allow a free trade in human organs. He says climate change has been invented by “neo-Marxists”, goes on about “cultural Marxism” and wants to ban sex education in schools. He wants to remove trade union rights. He’s anti-immigration. His rhetoric is about attacking the political elite. He is friends not just with Trump, but with the likes of Vox in Spain and Bolsonaro in Brazil. He also says he has conversations with God and can communicate with dogs through a mystic, although that’s not a specifically far right position.
    He sounds FUN
    Yes, you enjoy political chaos.
    Honestly, political chaos is gonna be a pleasant and diverting sideshow if we really have achieved AGI as a species

    IF - and of course it is a massive IF - this proves to be the case, this article from the Speccie three weeks ago looks remarkably prescient

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-is-too-late-the-ai-monster-is-at-the-door/
    Do you think AGI will change humanity more than What.Three.Words ?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,052
    edited November 2023
    Microsoft has hired Sam Altman.

    https://x.com/satyanadella/status/1726509045803336122

    We remain committed to our partnership with OpenAI and have confidence in our product roadmap, our ability to continue to innovate with everything we announced at Microsoft Ignite, and in continuing to support our customers and partners. We look forward to getting to know Emmett Shear and OAI's new leadership team and working with them. And we’re extremely excited to share the news that Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, together with colleagues, will be joining Microsoft to lead a new advanced AI research team. We look forward to moving quickly to provide them with the resources needed for their success.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Milei wins comfortably in Argentina. The BBC call him a far right outsider but their evidence for that seems to amount to not much more than Trump likes him: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67470549

    He has talked of abandoning the Argentine currency and dollarisation as a means of stopping runaway inflation, currently 140%. There is no doubt that the fiscal and monetary policies of Argentina have been disastrous. It will be interesting to see how he does.

    The BBC aren’t the only organisation to call him far right. He was a member of Avanza Libertad, which also included neo-Nazis.

    He wants to ban abortion, liberalise gun laws, and allow a free trade in human organs. He says climate change has been invented by “neo-Marxists”, goes on about “cultural Marxism” and wants to ban sex education in schools. He wants to remove trade union rights. He’s anti-immigration. His rhetoric is about attacking the political elite. He is friends not just with Trump, but with the likes of Vox in Spain and Bolsonaro in Brazil. He also says he has conversations with God and can communicate with dogs through a mystic, although that’s not a specifically far right position.
    He sounds FUN
    Yes, you enjoy political chaos.
    Honestly, political chaos is gonna be a pleasant and diverting sideshow if we really have achieved AGI as a species

    IF - and of course it is a massive IF - this proves to be the case, this article from the Speccie three weeks ago looks remarkably prescient

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-is-too-late-the-ai-monster-is-at-the-door/
    Do you think AGI will change humanity more than What.Three.Words ?
    Potentially - and I say this with due sobriety, given the societal impact of What3Words - YES
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,004
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    It also looks as if Altman is on his way back in to OpenAI https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67470614

    It looks as if investors are worried about the forthcoming share issues which should provide liquidity in the stock and heaps of mullah for them.

    Er, the headline and article says the opposite. Altman is out, for good, it seems - despite an attempt to reinstate him

    The amazing thing here is that the OpenAI board have stuck to their guns, despite vehement opposition from their 49% shareholder - Microsoft

    You have to be really determined, to anger and alienate Microsoft, esp if they own nearly half your company

    This is why there are lurid rumours of AGI’s arrival, imminent or maybe already
    Rumour is he was raising money for a new, competing, venture

  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,960
    Nigelb said:

    TimS said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Milei wins comfortably in Argentina. The BBC call him a far right outsider but their evidence for that seems to amount to not much more than Trump likes him: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67470549

    He has talked of abandoning the Argentine currency and dollarisation as a means of stopping runaway inflation, currently 140%. There is no doubt that the fiscal and monetary policies of Argentina have been disastrous. It will be interesting to see how he does.

    The BBC aren’t the only organisation to call him far right. He was a member of Avanza Libertad, which also included neo-Nazis.

    He wants to ban abortion, liberalise gun laws, and allow a free trade in human organs. He says climate change has been invented by “neo-Marxists”, goes on about “cultural Marxism” and wants to ban sex education in schools. He wants to remove trade union rights. He’s anti-immigration. His rhetoric is about attacking the political elite. He is friends not just with Trump, but with the likes of Vox in Spain and Bolosonaro in Brazil. He also says he has conversations with God and can communicate with dogs through a mystic, although that’s not a specifically far right position.
    Nah, from what I have seen more than half of the masses of dog owners in our village think that they should be talking to their dog as if it is a child and understands more than the tone of what they are saying.
    He believes his favourite dog was reincarnated from a lion he met when he was a gladiator in ancient Rome.

    In terms of other far right policies, he toyed with the idea of letting people sell their children, but had to walk back those remarks. He wants to transfer the penitentiary system to military control. He called the Pope an “envoy of Satan”, but later apologised for that.

    Oh, and the final damning proof of his idiocy is that he’s a big fan of Bitcoin.
    Yet further proof that electorates will vote for complete loons if they have a modicum of charisma and the opposition are ineffectual. It seems to happen increasingly often in systems where the political parties don’t have strong institutional governance, or individuals can stand outside party control.
    Seems like a man with a plan.
    https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1726386355717251408

    Privatisation of 'thievery', as far as I can see.
    Last resort of a desperate electorate?

    At least he’s not talking about the Falklands/Malvinas!
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    It also looks as if Altman is on his way back in to OpenAI https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67470614

    It looks as if investors are worried about the forthcoming share issues which should provide liquidity in the stock and heaps of mullah for them.

    Er, the headline and article says the opposite. Altman is out, for good, it seems - despite an attempt to reinstate him

    The amazing thing here is that the OpenAI board have stuck to their guns, despite vehement opposition from their 49% shareholder - Microsoft

    You have to be really determined, to anger and alienate Microsoft, esp if they own nearly half your company

    This is why there are lurid rumours of AGI’s arrival, imminent or maybe already
    Looking at the media the picture seems unclear with several saying he is coming back and possibly the majority saying that will not happen. I suspect it depends on who your source is but making a decision like that without the major shareholders being signed up for it seems a remarkable thing for the Board to do.
    Whichever way it goes, there are likely to be many defections - probably to a new startup.
    Backed by Amazon... Who Sam was talking to before he got the push.
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    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    Microsoft has hired Sam Altman.

    https://x.com/satyanadella/status/1726509045803336122

    We remain committed to our partnership with OpenAI and have confidence in our product roadmap, our ability to continue to innovate with everything we announced at Microsoft Ignite, and in continuing to support our customers and partners. We look forward to getting to know Emmett Shear and OAI's new leadership team and working with them. And we’re extremely excited to share the news that Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, together with colleagues, will be joining Microsoft to lead a new advanced AI research team. We look forward to moving quickly to provide them with the resources needed for their success.

    Curious move. When Steve Jobs was fired from Apple he didn’t go to work for IBM…
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    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    Ironically, one of the few countries in the world that could really use immigration - and lots of it, from highly educated countries with non-hostile cultures - is Argentina. It has such enormous potential, it needs more people to realise it

    About 10m people from Vietnam would transform the place, for instance
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993

    Microsoft has hired Sam Altman.

    https://x.com/satyanadella/status/1726509045803336122

    We remain committed to our partnership with OpenAI and have confidence in our product roadmap, our ability to continue to innovate with everything we announced at Microsoft Ignite, and in continuing to support our customers and partners. We look forward to getting to know Emmett Shear and OAI's new leadership team and working with them. And we’re extremely excited to share the news that Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, together with colleagues, will be joining Microsoft to lead a new advanced AI research team. We look forward to moving quickly to provide them with the resources needed for their success.

    Ok that’s incredible. That says Fuck off OpenAI, MS trust Sam to deliver the AI SuperGod

    OpenAI might have entirely blown themselves up
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    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    This is like Game of Thrones for AI supernerds

    Treachery and betrayal, powerplays and castrations and the birth of mega-dragons
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,806
    On topic, the last time the Conservative rolling average vote share was above 30% was before the Truss budget. Latest all pollster average (last poll of the 12 who have polling in the last month) is around 24.9%. Consistently polling in the 30s isn't in near reach, and not reaching 30% on polling day a possibility that should not be outright dismissed at this stage.
  • Options

    So expect a lot of pro Man City content in The Telegraph.

    The Abu Dhabi-backed investment fund RedBird IMI is in line to take control of The Telegraph within weeks in a deal that is causing concern among Conservative MPs.

    RedBird IMI would serve as a conduit for a £1.2bn loan, mostly provided by the Emirati royal and Manchester City owner Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, which would allow the Barclay family to repay in full a debt to Lloyds Banking Group.

    It is understood that almost as soon as that deal is completed, the loan would be converted to shares, making RedBird IMI owner of The Telegraph.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/11/19/telegraph-new-owner-abu-dhabi-backed-fund-redbird/

    Like complaining when cheating Citeh get relegated to League 2? That kind of complaining?
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    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    edited November 2023
    File under: Tiny Bit Awks


    Brigitte Macron says her ‘head was in a mess’ when she dated future French president when he was 15 and she was 40 trib.al/jl654qo

    https://x.com/nypost/status/1726306374798205427?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg

    It is amazing more isn’t made of this. Esp when very strong rumours say he was actually 14 when it began, and of course she was his teacher
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,316
    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally to build on our discussion yesterday:

    Ofsted 'seen as toxic' and schools should 'self-evaluate' instead, says inquiry
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-67449711

    First off, its premise is right but I think its conclusions miss the point. OFSTED is toxic and has to go. Pre-written reports by safeguarding risks based on a series of foolish tick boxes are as useless as Susan Acland-Hood, and certainly militate against good education.

    However, self-evaluation would mean very often no evaluation. Everybody should have a second check. There are ways that could be done constructively rather than punitively, as at present, but it should happen.

    Second, they overlook the issues in Ofsted's structure, which is careless. I suspect it's because the person chairing the report was responsible as Schools Minister for adding to its remit with such catastrophic results.

    However, we then come back to the significance of this. Lord Knight is a Labour peer and has shared platforms with Keir Starmer in the past. He's also a senior figure at the TES and a Fellow of the Institute for Education. He is very well-connected and if he's calling for OFSTED to be fundamentally reformed it suggests its days are numbered.

    Cheap win for a Starmer government -

    1) delete OFSTED
    2) launch some fun enquiries to justify the decision. There’s plenty of dirt there
    3) push the money into schools
    4) teachers unions cheer

    The problem is, as you say, that self inspection is no inspection. Good, well run schools will give themselves an A. Complete failures will give themselves an A….

    Are they building a new inspection system, secretly, at the edge of the Galaxy?


    Wilhuff Tarkin:
    [walking in with Darth Vader] The Imperial Senate will no longer be of any concern to us. I have just received word that the Emperor has dissolved the council permanently. The last remnants of the Old Republic have been swept away.

    Tagge:
    That's impossible! How will the Emperor maintain control without the bureaucracy?

    Tarkin:
    The regional governors now have direct control over their territories. Fear will keep the local systems in line. Fear of this battle station.
  • Options
    Good morning, everyone.

    Will the Conservatives poll 30% before Max Verstappen stops being F1 World Champion?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,316
    edited November 2023

    Microsoft has hired Sam Altman.

    https://x.com/satyanadella/status/1726509045803336122

    We remain committed to our partnership with OpenAI and have confidence in our product roadmap, our ability to continue to innovate with everything we announced at Microsoft Ignite, and in continuing to support our customers and partners. We look forward to getting to know Emmett Shear and OAI's new leadership team and working with them. And we’re extremely excited to share the news that Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, together with colleagues, will be joining Microsoft to lead a new advanced AI research team. We look forward to moving quickly to provide them with the resources needed for their success.

    Curious move. When Steve Jobs was fired from Apple he didn’t go to work for IBM…
    Jobs was seen as your classic eccentric founder at that point - no especial super talent - and needing to be replaced by a Proper Person. Such as an accountant or lawyer.

    Microsoft are taking the talent….
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    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    edited November 2023
    I don’t see how this is anything but defeat for OpenAI

    They’ve sacked the genius kid who took them to a $90bn valuation, and his wingman, the man driving them to AGI (and whoever gets there first will reap mega-galactic rewards) and replaced him with a dude whose sole intention is to slow down research and be cautious and not go too far too soon

    Yeah, that’s gonna be popular with investors

    Meanwhile all the Go For It AGI talent has simply shifted to half-owner (and vastly richer) Microsoft with - I am guessing - carte blanche to make the ASI superdeity by Tuesday

    It’s like the Ford motor company sacking Henry Ford with his plans for a production line and handing control to John Ruskin and the son of Ned Ludd

    And then Henry Ford moving to Shell
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,635

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Milei wins comfortably in Argentina. The BBC call him a far right outsider but their evidence for that seems to amount to not much more than Trump likes him: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67470549

    He has talked of abandoning the Argentine currency and dollarisation as a means of stopping runaway inflation, currently 140%. There is no doubt that the fiscal and monetary policies of Argentina have been disastrous. It will be interesting to see how he does.

    The BBC aren’t the only organisation to call him far right. He was a member of Avanza Libertad, which also included neo-Nazis.

    He wants to ban abortion, liberalise gun laws, and allow a free trade in human organs. He says climate change has been invented by “neo-Marxists”, goes on about “cultural Marxism” and wants to ban sex education in schools. He wants to remove trade union rights. He’s anti-immigration. His rhetoric is about attacking the political elite. He is friends not just with Trump, but with the likes of Vox in Spain and Bolosonaro in Brazil. He also says he has conversations with God and can communicate with dogs through a mystic, although that’s not a specifically far right position.
    Nah, from what I have seen more than half of the masses of dog owners in our village think that they should be talking to their dog as if it is a child and understands more than the tone of what they are saying.
    He believes his favourite dog was reincarnated from a lion he met when he was a gladiator in ancient Rome.

    In terms of other far right policies, he toyed with the idea of letting people sell their children, but had to walk back those remarks. He wants to transfer the penitentiary system to military control. He called the Pope an “envoy of Satan”, but later apologised for that.

    Oh, and the final damning proof of his idiocy is that he’s a big fan of Bitcoin.
    Wakes up, looks on PB when the breakfast is preparing, and is left completely at sea by which pol this could be - especially as there are so many to choose from in the UK alone.

    As for DavidL's dog owners in Angus, they're not wrong. Especially with Border Collies.

    https://www.sciencealert.com/dogs-respond-to-an-average-of-89-unique-words-experiment-finds
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    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    Can OpenAI stop Altman and Co walking away with all the intellectual property?

    Must be some dispute there
  • Options

    DavidL said:

    Milei wins comfortably in Argentina. The BBC call him a far right outsider but their evidence for that seems to amount to not much more than Trump likes him: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67470549

    He has talked of abandoning the Argentine currency and dollarisation as a means of stopping runaway inflation, currently 140%. There is no doubt that the fiscal and monetary policies of Argentina have been disastrous. It will be interesting to see how he does.

    The BBC aren’t the only organisation to call him far right. He was a member of Avanza Libertad, which also included neo-Nazis.

    He wants to ban abortion, liberalise gun laws, and allow a free trade in human organs. He says climate change has been invented by “neo-Marxists”, goes on about “cultural Marxism” and wants to ban sex education in schools. He wants to remove trade union rights. He’s anti-immigration. His rhetoric is about attacking the political elite. He is friends not just with Trump, but with the likes of Vox in Spain and Bolsonaro in Brazil. He also says he has conversations with God and can communicate with dogs through a mystic, although that’s not a specifically far right position.
    When the least crazy thing about the leader of a G20 economy is that he communicates with dogs through a mystic you have to worry.
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    Maybe the Tories won't be polling in the 30s until ... the 30s.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    I don’t see how this is anything but defeat for OpenAI

    They’ve sacked the genius kid who took them to a $90bn valuation, and his wingman, the man driving them to AGI (and whoever gets there first will reap mega-galactic rewards) and replaced him with a dude whose sole intention is to slow down research and be cautious and not go too far too soon

    Yeah, that’s gonna be popular with investors

    Meanwhile all the Go For It AGI talent has simply shifted to half-owner (and vastly richer) Microsoft with - I am guessing - carte blanche to make the ASI superdeity by Tuesday

    It’s like the Ford motor company sacking Henry Ford with his plans for a production line and handing control to John Ruskin and the son of Ned Ludd

    And then Henry Ford moving to Shell

    I appreciate that comments on here rarely stick to the topic but have you considered starting your own blog? Your constant desperation to steer threads towards your own hobbyhorses would be comical if it were not rather sad.
    The potentially imminent arrival of AGI is a tiny bit more than a “hobbyhorse”

    It is also headline news on Times, the Guardian, BBC, etc - and literally the lead story on the New York Times

    I suggest it is your PAINFUL intellectual mediocrity which is at work here, not any sad obsession of mine

    And, finally, the first person to mention it on this thread was @DavidL not me? Go see

    Other than that, a truly brilliant point
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,004
    Leon said:

    Can OpenAI stop Altman and Co walking away with all the intellectual property?

    Must be some dispute there

    Assuming he has a halfway normal contract there will be absolutely zero dispute (although in practice there may be some bickering)

    Any IP created during the term of his employment - and presumably he has a long notice period - belongs to OpenAI.

    Microsoft won’t want to be in a dispute either and it will be heavily scrutinised so I assume they will be very careful
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,004
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    I don’t see how this is anything but defeat for OpenAI

    They’ve sacked the genius kid who took them to a $90bn valuation, and his wingman, the man driving them to AGI (and whoever gets there first will reap mega-galactic rewards) and replaced him with a dude whose sole intention is to slow down research and be cautious and not go too far too soon

    Yeah, that’s gonna be popular with investors

    Meanwhile all the Go For It AGI talent has simply shifted to half-owner (and vastly richer) Microsoft with - I am guessing - carte blanche to make the ASI superdeity by Tuesday

    It’s like the Ford motor company sacking Henry Ford with his plans for a production line and handing control to John Ruskin and the son of Ned Ludd

    And then Henry Ford moving to Shell

    I appreciate that comments on here rarely stick to the topic but have you considered starting your own blog? Your constant desperation to steer threads towards your own hobbyhorses would be comical if it were not rather sad.
    Or perhaps he could find a magazine to write for? Which rag is it that bloke he keeps posting articles by writes for again? The Watcher or something?
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,004

    Maybe the Tories won't be polling in the 30s until ... the 30s.

    30 by 30 has a nice ring to it 😂
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    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,133
    A few pollsters (Redfield and Wilton, More in Common notably) have them within touching distance of 30% now so they’ll get a poll or two at least at or above that before the end of the year. Constantly getting over 30% won’t happen until the Truss reappointment happens.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,133
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    I don’t see how this is anything but defeat for OpenAI

    They’ve sacked the genius kid who took them to a $90bn valuation, and his wingman, the man driving them to AGI (and whoever gets there first will reap mega-galactic rewards) and replaced him with a dude whose sole intention is to slow down research and be cautious and not go too far too soon

    Yeah, that’s gonna be popular with investors

    Meanwhile all the Go For It AGI talent has simply shifted to half-owner (and vastly richer) Microsoft with - I am guessing - carte blanche to make the ASI superdeity by Tuesday

    It’s like the Ford motor company sacking Henry Ford with his plans for a production line and handing control to John Ruskin and the son of Ned Ludd

    And then Henry Ford moving to Shell

    I appreciate that comments on here rarely stick to the topic but have you considered starting your own blog? Your constant desperation to steer threads towards your own hobbyhorses would be comical if it were not rather sad.
    The potentially imminent arrival of AGI is a tiny bit more than a “hobbyhorse”

    It is also headline news on Times, the Guardian, BBC, etc - and literally the lead story on the New York Times

    I suggest it is your PAINFUL intellectual mediocrity which is at work here, not any sad obsession of mine

    And, finally, the first person to mention it on this thread was @DavidL not me? Go see

    Other than that, a truly brilliant point
    Yeah, painful intellectual mediocrity, of course. Silly me.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,133
    edited November 2023

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    I don’t see how this is anything but defeat for OpenAI

    They’ve sacked the genius kid who took them to a $90bn valuation, and his wingman, the man driving them to AGI (and whoever gets there first will reap mega-galactic rewards) and replaced him with a dude whose sole intention is to slow down research and be cautious and not go too far too soon

    Yeah, that’s gonna be popular with investors

    Meanwhile all the Go For It AGI talent has simply shifted to half-owner (and vastly richer) Microsoft with - I am guessing - carte blanche to make the ASI superdeity by Tuesday

    It’s like the Ford motor company sacking Henry Ford with his plans for a production line and handing control to John Ruskin and the son of Ned Ludd

    And then Henry Ford moving to Shell

    I appreciate that comments on here rarely stick to the topic but have you considered starting your own blog? Your constant desperation to steer threads towards your own hobbyhorses would be comical if it were not rather sad.
    Or perhaps he could find a magazine to write for? Which rag is it that bloke he keeps posting articles by writes for again? The Watcher or something?
    The Watchtower. I saw his piece “Will AI Knock On Doors for Us?” in last week’s. And who could forget “Will the Elect use What3Words to find Heaven?”. Pulitzer material.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,937
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    I don’t see how this is anything but defeat for OpenAI

    They’ve sacked the genius kid who took them to a $90bn valuation, and his wingman, the man driving them to AGI (and whoever gets there first will reap mega-galactic rewards) and replaced him with a dude whose sole intention is to slow down research and be cautious and not go too far too soon

    Yeah, that’s gonna be popular with investors

    Meanwhile all the Go For It AGI talent has simply shifted to half-owner (and vastly richer) Microsoft with - I am guessing - carte blanche to make the ASI superdeity by Tuesday

    It’s like the Ford motor company sacking Henry Ford with his plans for a production line and handing control to John Ruskin and the son of Ned Ludd

    And then Henry Ford moving to Shell

    I appreciate that comments on here rarely stick to the topic but have you considered starting your own blog? Your constant desperation to steer threads towards your own hobbyhorses would be comical if it were not rather sad.
    The potentially imminent arrival of AGI is a tiny bit more than a “hobbyhorse”

    It is also headline news on Times, the Guardian, BBC, etc - and literally the lead story on the New York Times

    I suggest it is your PAINFUL intellectual mediocrity which is at work here, not any sad obsession of mine

    And, finally, the first person to mention it on this thread was @DavidL not me? Go see

    Other than that, a truly brilliant point
    Which illustrates your problem. You just read hype stories online, and regurgitate them on here, often with *hints* of *inside information* and *rumours* that are *spectacular* - and which never pan out. But you are utterly clueless about what is going on, and what AGI/AI/ML actually is. Because, as your self-proclaiming of your IQ shows, you're an idiot. An entertaining idiot perhaps, but still an idiot. :)
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,133

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    I don’t see how this is anything but defeat for OpenAI

    They’ve sacked the genius kid who took them to a $90bn valuation, and his wingman, the man driving them to AGI (and whoever gets there first will reap mega-galactic rewards) and replaced him with a dude whose sole intention is to slow down research and be cautious and not go too far too soon

    Yeah, that’s gonna be popular with investors

    Meanwhile all the Go For It AGI talent has simply shifted to half-owner (and vastly richer) Microsoft with - I am guessing - carte blanche to make the ASI superdeity by Tuesday

    It’s like the Ford motor company sacking Henry Ford with his plans for a production line and handing control to John Ruskin and the son of Ned Ludd

    And then Henry Ford moving to Shell

    I appreciate that comments on here rarely stick to the topic but have you considered starting your own blog? Your constant desperation to steer threads towards your own hobbyhorses would be comical if it were not rather sad.
    The potentially imminent arrival of AGI is a tiny bit more than a “hobbyhorse”

    It is also headline news on Times, the Guardian, BBC, etc - and literally the lead story on the New York Times

    I suggest it is your PAINFUL intellectual mediocrity which is at work here, not any sad obsession of mine

    And, finally, the first person to mention it on this thread was @DavidL not me? Go see

    Other than that, a truly brilliant point
    Which illustrates your problem. You just read hype stories online, and regurgitate them on here, often with *hints* of *inside information* and *rumours* that are *spectacular* - and which never pan out. But you are utterly clueless about what is going on, and what AGI/AI/ML actually is. Because, as your self-proclaiming of your IQ shows, you're an idiot. An entertaining idiot perhaps, but still an idiot. :)
    Don’t forget the CAPS. Only a superior intellect uses CAPS. I’m so intellectually mediocre I’m probably doing it wrong.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,316

    ydoethur said:

    Incidentally to build on our discussion yesterday:

    Ofsted 'seen as toxic' and schools should 'self-evaluate' instead, says inquiry
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-67449711

    First off, its premise is right but I think its conclusions miss the point. OFSTED is toxic and has to go. Pre-written reports by safeguarding risks based on a series of foolish tick boxes are as useless as Susan Acland-Hood, and certainly militate against good education.

    However, self-evaluation would mean very often no evaluation. Everybody should have a second check. There are ways that could be done constructively rather than punitively, as at present, but it should happen.

    Second, they overlook the issues in Ofsted's structure, which is careless. I suspect it's because the person chairing the report was responsible as Schools Minister for adding to its remit with such catastrophic results.

    However, we then come back to the significance of this. Lord Knight is a Labour peer and has shared platforms with Keir Starmer in the past. He's also a senior figure at the TES and a Fellow of the Institute for Education. He is very well-connected and if he's calling for OFSTED to be fundamentally reformed it suggests its days are numbered.

    Cheap win for a Starmer government -

    1) delete OFSTED
    2) launch some fun enquiries to justify the decision. There’s plenty of dirt there
    3) push the money into schools
    4) teachers unions cheer

    The problem is, as you say, that self inspection is no inspection. Good, well run schools will give themselves an A. Complete failures will give themselves an A….

    Are they building a new inspection system, secretly, at the edge of the Galaxy?


    Wilhuff Tarkin:
    [walking in with Darth Vader] The Imperial Senate will no longer be of any concern to us. I have just received word that the Emperor has dissolved the council permanently. The last remnants of the Old Republic have been swept away.

    Tagge:
    That's impossible! How will the Emperor maintain control without the bureaucracy?

    Tarkin:
    The regional governors now have direct control over their territories. Fear will keep the local systems in line. Fear of this battle station.
    Some people in teaching talk about the distinction between a food safety inspector and a restaurant critic. We need something like the first- checking that safeguarding is safe, and the school isn't doing anything utterly unjustifiably stupid.

    The second probably can't be done- what makes a school great is pretty subjective and it's too easy to put up a facade.

    A lot of Ofsted's problems come from trying to do the impossible second thing on the cheap.
    I really must finish my header - the source of so many problems is so simple, yet so fundemental…
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    Anyone know what the powers of the Argentinian President are? Google implies limited and that the old lot retain a majority in Parliament, but it looks like some elections are due.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,504
    May I ask an ignorant question about AI and its future. I was doing bits and pieces on the new AI thingy recently with someone who is a cutting edge enthusiast to see how it responded, including to stuff I was actually interested in.

    My sense was that despite its amazing speed, it gave the strong sense of being a rapid but lazy student who had read the reviews but hadn't read the book or evaluated the argument.

    So, for example, on law case X, it could summarise the issues but could not evaluate the weaknesses of the submissions on one particular side (even though they had been live streamed on the internet); on academic subject Y it had obviously read the major website and couldn't respond to a specific detailed question going beyond it.

    This, I understand, is because if a source does not exist digitally then AI doesn't know it. This limitation is immense.

    Most important modern books (there are millions) don't exist in that digital space SFAICS.

    Will AI get beyond that limitation?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    I don’t see how this is anything but defeat for OpenAI

    They’ve sacked the genius kid who took them to a $90bn valuation, and his wingman, the man driving them to AGI (and whoever gets there first will reap mega-galactic rewards) and replaced him with a dude whose sole intention is to slow down research and be cautious and not go too far too soon

    Yeah, that’s gonna be popular with investors

    Meanwhile all the Go For It AGI talent has simply shifted to half-owner (and vastly richer) Microsoft with - I am guessing - carte blanche to make the ASI superdeity by Tuesday

    It’s like the Ford motor company sacking Henry Ford with his plans for a production line and handing control to John Ruskin and the son of Ned Ludd

    And then Henry Ford moving to Shell

    I appreciate that comments on here rarely stick to the topic but have you considered starting your own blog? Your constant desperation to steer threads towards your own hobbyhorses would be comical if it were not rather sad.
    The potentially imminent arrival of AGI is a tiny bit more than a “hobbyhorse”

    It is also headline news on Times, the Guardian, BBC, etc - and literally the lead story on the New York Times

    I suggest it is your PAINFUL intellectual mediocrity which is at work here, not any sad obsession of mine

    And, finally, the first person to mention it on this thread was @DavidL not me? Go see

    Other than that, a truly brilliant point
    Yeah, painful intellectual mediocrity, of course. Silly me.
    Also, you are absolutely free to hijack any thread with your own “hobbyhorses” - the things YOU find interesting, your daily obsessions - collecting old kettles, incessant mumbling, unsuccessfully wanking in steam trains - the things you personally like and do

    Why not try that? Instead of complaining - plaintively - about OTHER comments?
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,133

    The wikiworm average went below 30% during the Trusstershambles and hasn't risen above it since. Even during that bit in the Spring when the Conservatives seemed to be getting things together, they maxed out around 29%;

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    It RegUK implode, the Conservatives get above 30% then. Otherwise, I'm not sure they do until their new leader gets a honeymoon.

    As for a tax cutting bonanza (as opposed to aspirations for a fifth term that won't happen), how do they afford it?

    My (increasingly tired) Truss schtick began on here because I followed a tip on a thread header for a Tory lead following a predicted September 2022 new leader honeymoon. Though I’m sure you’ve all appreciated the 14 months of 24-carat comedy gold you’ve got from it.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,004
    edited November 2023
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    I don’t see how this is anything but defeat for OpenAI

    They’ve sacked the genius kid who took them to a $90bn valuation, and his wingman, the man driving them to AGI (and whoever gets there first will reap mega-galactic rewards) and replaced him with a dude whose sole intention is to slow down research and be cautious and not go too far too soon

    Yeah, that’s gonna be popular with investors

    Meanwhile all the Go For It AGI talent has simply shifted to half-owner (and vastly richer) Microsoft with - I am guessing - carte blanche to make the ASI superdeity by Tuesday

    It’s like the Ford motor company sacking Henry Ford with his plans for a production line and handing control to John Ruskin and the son of Ned Ludd

    And then Henry Ford moving to Shell

    I appreciate that comments on here rarely stick to the topic but have you considered starting your own blog? Your constant desperation to steer threads towards your own hobbyhorses would be comical if it were not rather sad.
    The potentially imminent arrival of AGI is a tiny bit more than a “hobbyhorse”

    It is also headline news on Times, the Guardian, BBC, etc - and literally the lead story on the New York Times

    I suggest it is your PAINFUL intellectual mediocrity which is at work here, not any sad obsession of mine

    And, finally, the first person to mention it on this thread was @DavidL not me? Go see

    Other than that, a truly brilliant point
    Which illustrates your problem. You just read hype stories online, and regurgitate them on here, often with *hints* of *inside information* and *rumours* that are *spectacular* - and which never pan out. But you are utterly clueless about what is going on, and what AGI/AI/ML actually is. Because, as your self-proclaiming of your IQ shows, you're an idiot. An entertaining idiot perhaps, but still an idiot. :)
    Don’t forget the CAPS. Only a superior
    intellect uses CAPS. I’m so intellectually mediocre I’m probably doing it wrong.
    But are you a mediocre intellectual or intellectually mediocre? I would posit they are different. Shows the difference what 5 words can make
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,465
    It's November 2046. Sam Jackman, a middle manager from Colorado, is dragged atop the Las Vegas Sphere to be sacrificed. The surrounding crowd of tech workers chants "that's it, I'm leaving Effective Altruism". No-one remembers how this tradition started
    https://twitter.com/QualyThe/status/1726271515153584321

    Seems as likely as any of Leon's predictions (which I do not dismiss entirely).
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,133
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    I don’t see how this is anything but defeat for OpenAI

    They’ve sacked the genius kid who took them to a $90bn valuation, and his wingman, the man driving them to AGI (and whoever gets there first will reap mega-galactic rewards) and replaced him with a dude whose sole intention is to slow down research and be cautious and not go too far too soon

    Yeah, that’s gonna be popular with investors

    Meanwhile all the Go For It AGI talent has simply shifted to half-owner (and vastly richer) Microsoft with - I am guessing - carte blanche to make the ASI superdeity by Tuesday

    It’s like the Ford motor company sacking Henry Ford with his plans for a production line and handing control to John Ruskin and the son of Ned Ludd

    And then Henry Ford moving to Shell

    I appreciate that comments on here rarely stick to the topic but have you considered starting your own blog? Your constant desperation to steer threads towards your own hobbyhorses would be comical if it were not rather sad.
    The potentially imminent arrival of AGI is a tiny bit more than a “hobbyhorse”

    It is also headline news on Times, the Guardian, BBC, etc - and literally the lead story on the New York Times

    I suggest it is your PAINFUL intellectual mediocrity which is at work here, not any sad obsession of mine

    And, finally, the first person to mention it on this thread was @DavidL not me? Go see

    Other than that, a truly brilliant point
    Yeah, painful intellectual mediocrity, of course. Silly me.
    Also, you are absolutely free to hijack any thread with your own “hobbyhorses” - the things YOU find interesting, your daily obsessions - collecting old kettles, incessant mumbling, unsuccessfully wanking in steam trains - the things you personally like and do

    Why not try that? Instead of complaining - plaintively - about OTHER comments?
    Absolutely LOVING your work with the CAPS there, as ever. Really allows you to stand out from the intellectually MEDIOCRE.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,983
    DougSeal said:

    The wikiworm average went below 30% during the Trusstershambles and hasn't risen above it since. Even during that bit in the Spring when the Conservatives seemed to be getting things together, they maxed out around 29%;

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    It RegUK implode, the Conservatives get above 30% then. Otherwise, I'm not sure they do until their new leader gets a honeymoon.

    As for a tax cutting bonanza (as opposed to aspirations for a fifth term that won't happen), how do they afford it?

    My (increasingly tired) Truss schtick began on here because I followed a tip on a thread header for a Tory lead following a predicted September 2022 new leader honeymoon. Though I’m sure you’ve all appreciated the 14 months of 24-carat comedy gold you’ve got from it.
    If it comes off, we all have to refer to you as 'Maestro' and nothing other.
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,133

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    I don’t see how this is anything but defeat for OpenAI

    They’ve sacked the genius kid who took them to a $90bn valuation, and his wingman, the man driving them to AGI (and whoever gets there first will reap mega-galactic rewards) and replaced him with a dude whose sole intention is to slow down research and be cautious and not go too far too soon

    Yeah, that’s gonna be popular with investors

    Meanwhile all the Go For It AGI talent has simply shifted to half-owner (and vastly richer) Microsoft with - I am guessing - carte blanche to make the ASI superdeity by Tuesday

    It’s like the Ford motor company sacking Henry Ford with his plans for a production line and handing control to John Ruskin and the son of Ned Ludd

    And then Henry Ford moving to Shell

    I appreciate that comments on here rarely stick to the topic but have you considered starting your own blog? Your constant desperation to steer threads towards your own hobbyhorses would be comical if it were not rather sad.
    The potentially imminent arrival of AGI is a tiny bit more than a “hobbyhorse”

    It is also headline news on Times, the Guardian, BBC, etc - and literally the lead story on the New York Times

    I suggest it is your PAINFUL intellectual mediocrity which is at work here, not any sad obsession of mine

    And, finally, the first person to mention it on this thread was @DavidL not me? Go see

    Other than that, a truly brilliant point
    Which illustrates your problem. You just read hype stories online, and regurgitate them on here, often with *hints* of *inside information* and *rumours* that are *spectacular* - and which never pan out. But you are utterly clueless about what is going on, and what AGI/AI/ML actually is. Because, as your self-proclaiming of your IQ shows, you're an idiot. An entertaining idiot perhaps, but still an idiot. :)
    Don’t forget the CAPS. Only a superior
    intellect uses CAPS. I’m so intellectually mediocre I’m probably doing it wrong.
    But are you a mediocre intellectual or intellectually mediocre? I would posit they are different. Shows the difference what 5 words can make
    In fact, as Leon has demonstrated, it only takes What3Words to propel a person to the intellectual ELITE
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,004
    Dura_Ace said:

    DougSeal said:

    The wikiworm average went below 30% during the Trusstershambles and hasn't risen above it since. Even during that bit in the Spring when the Conservatives seemed to be getting things together, they maxed out around 29%;

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    It RegUK implode, the Conservatives get above 30% then. Otherwise, I'm not sure they do until their new leader gets a honeymoon.

    As for a tax cutting bonanza (as opposed to aspirations for a fifth term that won't happen), how do they afford it?

    My (increasingly tired) Truss schtick began on here because I followed a tip on a thread header for a Tory lead following a predicted September 2022 new leader honeymoon. Though I’m sure you’ve all appreciated the 14 months of 24-carat comedy gold you’ve got from it.
    If it comes off, we all have to refer to you as 'Maestro' and nothing other.
    Naming someone after a crappy British Leyland car doesn’t seem very… complimentary… especially coming from you
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,133
    Dura_Ace said:

    DougSeal said:

    The wikiworm average went below 30% during the Trusstershambles and hasn't risen above it since. Even during that bit in the Spring when the Conservatives seemed to be getting things together, they maxed out around 29%;

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    It RegUK implode, the Conservatives get above 30% then. Otherwise, I'm not sure they do until their new leader gets a honeymoon.

    As for a tax cutting bonanza (as opposed to aspirations for a fifth term that won't happen), how do they afford it?

    My (increasingly tired) Truss schtick began on here because I followed a tip on a thread header for a Tory lead following a predicted September 2022 new leader honeymoon. Though I’m sure you’ve all appreciated the 14 months of 24-carat comedy gold you’ve got from it.
    If it comes off, we all have to refer to you as 'Maestro' and nothing other.
    I was about to ‘like’ that but then realised that “Maestro” probably has very different connotations to a fan of things automotive such as yourself…
  • Options
    Ok, I may have cast aspersions on Leon’s acuity previously but he’s spot on about the Bernard Manning thing. Am I being a sap to worry about a politician being called el Loco before they’ve even started?


  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,983
    DougSeal said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DougSeal said:

    The wikiworm average went below 30% during the Trusstershambles and hasn't risen above it since. Even during that bit in the Spring when the Conservatives seemed to be getting things together, they maxed out around 29%;

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    It RegUK implode, the Conservatives get above 30% then. Otherwise, I'm not sure they do until their new leader gets a honeymoon.

    As for a tax cutting bonanza (as opposed to aspirations for a fifth term that won't happen), how do they afford it?

    My (increasingly tired) Truss schtick began on here because I followed a tip on a thread header for a Tory lead following a predicted September 2022 new leader honeymoon. Though I’m sure you’ve all appreciated the 14 months of 24-carat comedy gold you’ve got from it.
    If it comes off, we all have to refer to you as 'Maestro' and nothing other.
    I was about to ‘like’ that but then realised that “Maestro” probably has very different connotations to a fan of things automotive such as yourself…
    I wasn't thinking of the ARG abomination. They were still making them in China in 2012 which is a graver crime than the social credit apps and organ harvesting they are doing in Xinjiang.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,465
    We remain committed to our partnership with OpenAI and have confidence in our product roadmap, our ability to continue to innovate with everything we announced at Microsoft Ignite, and in continuing to support our customers and partners. We look forward to getting to know Emmett Shear and OAI's new leadership team and working with them. And we’re extremely excited to share the news that Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, together with colleagues, will be joining Microsoft to lead a new advanced AI research team. We look forward to moving quickly to provide them with the resources needed for their success.
    https://twitter.com/satyanadella/status/1726509045803336122
  • Options
    Leon said:

    File under: Tiny Bit Awks


    Brigitte Macron says her ‘head was in a mess’ when she dated future French president when he was 15 and she was 40 trib.al/jl654qo

    https://x.com/nypost/status/1726306374798205427?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg

    It is amazing more isn’t made of this. Esp when very strong rumours say he was actually 14 when it began, and of course she was his teacher

    I don't know how a 40 year old can "date" a 15 year old, unless that was legal in France at the time, especially when the 40 year old was the child's teacher. It'd end up in court in the UK today.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,628
    Never.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,628
    edited November 2023
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm going for next week.

    To be "consistently polling in the 30s" next week, all next week's polls would have to be >30, surely?

    Ambitious.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,279

    Leon said:

    File under: Tiny Bit Awks

    Brigitte Macron says her ‘head was in a mess’ when she dated future French president when he was 15 and she was 40 trib.al/jl654qo

    https://x.com/nypost/status/1726306374798205427?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg

    It is amazing more isn’t made of this. Esp when very strong rumours say he was actually 14 when it began, and of course she was his teacher

    I don't know how a 40 year old can "date" a 15 year old, unless that was legal in France at the time, especially when the 40 year old was the child's teacher. It'd end up in court in the UK today.
    Because we are a country of princess prissy boots. I was in Paris last week and if nothing else marks the difference between our countries it is their approach to cars and driving. And parking.

    Going round the place de la concorde in my uber people LIDERALLY don't look as they pull out or pull in or over or undertake. Those high-powered scooters in particular. One pulled out in front of us with the rider looking behind him. The other way.

    Plus parking. There would be running fist fights in the UK if people parked as close to each other as they do in Paris. You could put a fag paper between cars, sometimes, more often not.

    And as for romance...
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,339
    algarkirk said:

    May I ask an ignorant question about AI and its future. I was doing bits and pieces on the new AI thingy recently with someone who is a cutting edge enthusiast to see how it responded, including to stuff I was actually interested in.

    My sense was that despite its amazing speed, it gave the strong sense of being a rapid but lazy student who had read the reviews but hadn't read the book or evaluated the argument.

    So, for example, on law case X, it could summarise the issues but could not evaluate the weaknesses of the submissions on one particular side (even though they had been live streamed on the internet); on academic subject Y it had obviously read the major website and couldn't respond to a specific detailed question going beyond it.

    This, I understand, is because if a source does not exist digitally then AI doesn't know it. This limitation is immense.

    Most important modern books (there are millions) don't exist in that digital space SFAICS.

    Will AI get beyond that limitation?

    That’s where the “G”’ in AGI comes in. The ability to make links. You’re right that, at the minute, you’re looking at a more complex version of autocorrect.

    Despite the breathless hopes of our AI fan boy member, current “AI” is misnamed. There is no real “I”. What you get out is entirely based on the prompt you give it, and given that prompt could only ever have been that output.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,628

    Leon said:

    File under: Tiny Bit Awks


    Brigitte Macron says her ‘head was in a mess’ when she dated future French president when he was 15 and she was 40 trib.al/jl654qo

    https://x.com/nypost/status/1726306374798205427?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg

    It is amazing more isn’t made of this. Esp when very strong rumours say he was actually 14 when it began, and of course she was his teacher

    I don't know how a 40 year old can "date" a 15 year old, unless that was legal in France at the time, especially when the 40 year old was the child's teacher. It'd end up in court in the UK today.
    They do things differently in France.
  • Options

    Leon said:

    File under: Tiny Bit Awks


    Brigitte Macron says her ‘head was in a mess’ when she dated future French president when he was 15 and she was 40 trib.al/jl654qo

    https://x.com/nypost/status/1726306374798205427?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg

    It is amazing more isn’t made of this. Esp when very strong rumours say he was actually 14 when it began, and of course she was his teacher

    I don't know how a 40 year old can "date" a 15 year old, unless that was legal in France at the time, especially when the 40 year old was the child's teacher. It'd end up in court in the UK today.
    Would it have ended up in court 30 years ago? Possibly, just about. In France the age of consent is 15 so it is OK from that point of view but if she was his teacher, they have the same rules we do.

    Dunno. Who cares? It is clearly not going to stop Macron becoming president because he already is.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,279
    edited November 2023
    biggles said:

    algarkirk said:

    May I ask an ignorant question about AI and its future. I was doing bits and pieces on the new AI thingy recently with someone who is a cutting edge enthusiast to see how it responded, including to stuff I was actually interested in.

    My sense was that despite its amazing speed, it gave the strong sense of being a rapid but lazy student who had read the reviews but hadn't read the book or evaluated the argument.

    So, for example, on law case X, it could summarise the issues but could not evaluate the weaknesses of the submissions on one particular side (even though they had been live streamed on the internet); on academic subject Y it had obviously read the major website and couldn't respond to a specific detailed question going beyond it.

    This, I understand, is because if a source does not exist digitally then AI doesn't know it. This limitation is immense.

    Most important modern books (there are millions) don't exist in that digital space SFAICS.

    Will AI get beyond that limitation?

    That’s where the “G”’ in AGI comes in. The ability to make links. You’re right that, at the minute, you’re looking at a more complex version of autocorrect.

    Despite the breathless hopes of our AI fan boy member, current “AI” is misnamed. There is no real “I”. What you get out is entirely based on the prompt you give it, and given that prompt could only ever have been that output.
    Yes.

    (And great post on it @148grss.)

    I will have to roll out my American Action Painting/Abstract Expressionist analogy. Again.

    eg Jackson Pollock set up the initial conditions - paint cans, strings, holes in paint cans - and then let them create "art". Of course it was art because he was the creator of those initial conditions and he wanted to create something that was random but not random (to simplify). But without his input you would be pushed to call the end result art. Well of course you can call anything art and you would be right but if you knocked over a paint can and the contents spilled onto a canvas it wouldn't be the same.

    Similarly to AI art. It is not the output itself that I would call (good) art, but it is the initial conditions input by the creator (Leon obviously a lot until he was banned for so doing). The whole thing is art but not in the way that Leon thinks it is art.
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    Leon said:

    File under: Tiny Bit Awks


    Brigitte Macron says her ‘head was in a mess’ when she dated future French president when he was 15 and she was 40 trib.al/jl654qo

    https://x.com/nypost/status/1726306374798205427?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg

    It is amazing more isn’t made of this. Esp when very strong rumours say he was actually 14 when it began, and of course she was his teacher

    I don't know how a 40 year old can "date" a 15 year old, unless that was legal in France at the time, especially when the 40 year old was the child's teacher. It'd end up in court in the UK today.
    They do things differently in France.
    True. Although I have little doubt it would be dealt with differently were the sexes in the age discrepancy / underage relationship reversed, whether here or in France.
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    .

    Leon said:

    File under: Tiny Bit Awks


    Brigitte Macron says her ‘head was in a mess’ when she dated future French president when he was 15 and she was 40 trib.al/jl654qo

    https://x.com/nypost/status/1726306374798205427?s=61&t=GGp3Vs1t1kTWDiyA-odnZg

    It is amazing more isn’t made of this. Esp when very strong rumours say he was actually 14 when it began, and of course she was his teacher

    I don't know how a 40 year old can "date" a 15 year old, unless that was legal in France at the time, especially when the 40 year old was the child's teacher. It'd end up in court in the UK today.
    Would it have ended up in court 30 years ago? Possibly, just about. In France the age of consent is 15 so it is OK from that point of view but if she was his teacher, they have the same rules we do.

    Dunno. Who cares? It is clearly not going to stop Macron becoming president because he already is.
    It doesn't matter at all now, and if I'd had the chance at 15 to "date" a hot 40 year old teacher? Hell yes!
    It's a real edge case today, though, and might not fly.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,183
    It's probably me. But every time I read on here about AI and all the wonderful things it will be able to do, I find myself thinking about Horizon and all the wonderful things those inventing it said it would do. And, even more, all the idiots who believed this and did not ask any basic questions.

    And then I remember the consequences for human beings of all this blind belief by gullible idiots in what machines produce.

    You can hear one of the consequences here - https://youtu.be/wR1MA66Th4k?si=_72md4s9lWdE-xoY

    From 2.41 minutes in when Edward Henry KC starts to question one of the prosecutors, Warwick Tatford.

    As I say, it's probably just me.
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    148grss said:

    AI, as it is at the moment, is little more than a very good mimic - a simulacrum machine that makes a good approximation of human thought. Its main problem is, just as you point out, it is very lazy and doesn't actually "think" or have "intelligence" - you give it a prompt and it algorithmically works out the most likely answers based on its understanding of the prompt and the data set it has. When asking it academic questions, for example, it is very good at making up citations for essays and publications that do not exist, but sound highly plausible.

    There are two pathways AI could take. The techno-optimists (like our dearest Leon) argue that this is the sign of future intelligence and AI won't take long to actually become intelligent and be able to do lots of new and exciting things. This is based off (in my view) very little evidence and more based off of the general techno-enthusiasm of a certain group of people (see the recent bubbles in metaverse, nfts, blockchain stuff, etc)

    The other train of thought, which could be dubbed the techno-pessimist (which I would count myself as), sees AI at its least (but still pretty) harmful as a tool of capital to displace middle income earners in skilled jobs, where it is acceptable for the output to have a small amount of nonsense in it. To me this would be a lot of the suggestions of "enhancing healthcare with AI" or such - you turn 111 into an AI chat instead of a real person, you accept that maybe 5% of the time it just spouts gibberish, but because that is only going to hurt poor sick people anyway and to be fair human error is probably around that anyway, so who cares?

    At its most harmful will just be a bullshit spewing machine that becomes recursive - AI will produce junk outputs and then those will become future sources for future AI. (This is somewhat similar to the "why Google is crap now" discussion a few weeks ago).

    The other potential downside of AI is it will just become a bias enforcement machine - crap inputs in equals crap inputs out. If all the inputs are of one ideological bent (say free market capitalism) then all the outputs will continue the same practice. This is where you get the likes of Kissinger arguing for a new priestly class to interpret the rulings of AI. And you will need a class of politician to declare those findings to the plebs, because they wouldn't accept the cold calculating reason of the machine god, so you have to stick a human face on it to convince them. It becomes a great "get out of jail free" card for politicians who can essentially become the Computer Says No character from Little Britain, but about public policy instead of if you want to book a holiday.

    How AI will perfect messy humanity, part 352. Pretty sure this guy is being satirical, but he also does a lot of COVID whining so who knows?



    https://x.com/soncharm/status/1725283757291188323?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
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    Cyclefree said:

    It's probably me. But every time I read on here about AI and all the wonderful things it will be able to do, I find myself thinking about Horizon and all the wonderful things those inventing it said it would do. And, even more, all the idiots who believed this and did not ask any basic questions.

    And then I remember the consequences for human beings of all this blind belief by gullible idiots in what machines produce.

    You can hear one of the consequences here - https://youtu.be/wR1MA66Th4k?si=_72md4s9lWdE-xoY

    From 2.41 minutes in when Edward Henry KC starts to question one of the prosecutors, Warwick Tatford.

    As I say, it's probably just me.

    Anyone with an ounce of sanity should be worried about giving over whole industries to AI.
This discussion has been closed.