The afternoon thread maybe slightly later than usual, as I've only started to write it after spending 2 hours trying to work out what I should write about.
I do hope it's Scotland. ;-)
Oooh, Yes! We haven'y had a Scottish thread for so long. Another 8 hours of mostly the same people repeating mostly the same things is just what the site needs.
Cammie, Osbrowne, PB Tories, PB Romney, Chorttle, Osbornegasm, Unspoofable, Hilarious, Shrieking etc. etc.
No pandas today? Disappointing.
EDIT: Checked. No pandas. I expected more.
Would a Red Panda (Ailurus fulgens) do?
You'll have to forgive the shriekers. Few things upset them more than the joke about there being more Pandas than scottish tory MPs.
Do you understand that a poll after Obrowne's incompetent and toxic intervention shows the Yes and No vote still narrowing no matter how much you wish it didn't? No?
Mick Pork - The fieldwork is BEFORE the currency debate exploded. Certainly before any of the public noticed it - please bear in mind this. It may be a positive or a negative but this poll can't be a reflection of that as the fieldwork was prior.
The TNS poll was before, the Survation was in the middle of Eck greetin about being bullied by the posh boys - and shows more than half "yes" voters wanting a plan B....(and only SNP voters more likely to vote Yes as a result of the currency issue)
You mean the currency non-issue? In case you haven't noticed we are already in a currency union with Jersey, Guernsey etc and it seems to work perfectly well despite the fact that they aren't even in the EU, never mind the UK.
PanelBase found strong support for a currency union and, while there may have been a blip in the midst of Osborne's ill-judged intervention last week, I suspect that very few people would be bothered if Scotland used Sterling post independence.
We need to find some new tunes – and some positivity, instead of these endless technocratic arguments. It's not as if a country has never left the UK – Ireland did so perfectly successfully. The trick is to make the case, the vision, for the union.
Do you understand that a poll after Obrowne's incompetent and toxic intervention shows the Yes and No vote still narrowing no matter how much you wish it didn't? No?
Mick Pork - The fieldwork is BEFORE the currency debate exploded. Certainly before any of the public noticed it - please bear in mind this. It may be a positive or a negative but this poll can't be a reflection of that as the fieldwork was prior.
Do you understand that a poll after Obrowne's incompetent and toxic intervention shows the Yes and No vote still narrowing no matter how much you wish it didn't? No?
Mick Pork - The fieldwork is BEFORE the currency debate exploded. Certainly before any of the public noticed it - please bear in mind this. It may be a positive or a negative but this poll can't be a reflection of that as the fieldwork was prior.
The TNS poll was before, the Survation after.
Survation was carried out on 17-18.
Osborne's speech was on the 16th, and Salmond's "deconstruction" on the 17th.
It will be worth waiting a few weeks to see what the settled conclusion is.
Meanwhile,
Two-thirds of Scots want Alex Salmond to reveal currency Plan B Study finds that majority want First Minister to create an alternative to formally sharing the pound before the referendum - but also reveals a poll boost for independence since George Osborne's intervention
Do you understand that a poll after Obrowne's incompetent and toxic intervention shows the Yes and No vote still narrowing no matter how much you wish it didn't? No?
Mick Pork - The fieldwork is BEFORE the currency debate exploded.
For the TNS which shows the incredibly telling 84% to 73% differential for the Yes campaign.
NOT for the survation.
The fieldwork was Monday and Tuesday of this week, so post George Osborne’s currency union and Jose Manuel Barroso’s EU intervention
Sorry, but the debate had quite obviously exploded by then and moved on to the Salmond response.
Yes I've acknowledged that. A swing of 2.15% whilst good for YES does not chance my view NO is still in the better position by far though.
7 months out with the polls narrowing and the most high profile No campaign intervention to date only resulting in that narrowing continuing. With TNS differential figures that should be giving the No campaign nightmares since their presence on the ground has been laughable.
I'll be delighted to see the No campaign carry on precisely as they have been from now until september thanks.
Mick - Whatever the polling impact at least people in Scotland will now know how the rUK SNP will react post-independence. It would be unfair to them not to correct Salmond's Osborne's absurd bluster.
Fixed that for you.
And so the Osbornegasm continues with not a whiff of reality creeping in to the right wing dominated PB.
It's a Yes/No referendum. Both sides are not going to agree. Give that searingly obvious fact pretending that all the No side's assertions are facts and are also somehow immutable to scottish public opinion simply isn't going to get the No side anywhere. Particularly when we've just had polling evidence that shows all Osborne's intervention has done is narrow the polling even further. You don't need to like it, but that is precisely what has happened.
Has it crossed anyone's mind that Osborne has deliberately upset the Nats, knowing full well Balls would have to follow suit thus causing damage to SLab?
I know they are useless at actual politics but this may be a very smart move by the Tories.
MPC: interest rates likely to start rising in Spring 2015...
What great timing for the government - homeowners hammered just before the election. You couldn't make it up.
Far, far more people gain from rising interest rates.
Not only do many, many more people have savings than mortgages but many mortgages are fixed rate anyway so won't move straight away.
Perhaps but those groups are massively concentrated in the Baby Boom generation, who are already a solidly Blue cohort. Gen X is the Red cohort you need to turn – and they have massive mortgages.
The afternoon thread maybe slightly later than usual, as I've only started to write it after spending 2 hours trying to work out what I should write about.
I do hope it's Scotland. ;-)
Oooh, Yes! We haven'y had a Scottish thread for so long. Another 8 hours of mostly the same people repeating mostly the same things is just what the site needs.
Cammie, Osbrowne, PB Tories, PB Romney, Chorttle, Osbornegasm, Unspoofable, Hilarious, Shrieking etc. etc.
No pandas today? Disappointing.
EDIT: Checked. No pandas. I expected more.
Would a Red Panda (Ailurus fulgens) do?
You'll have to forgive the shriekers. Few things upset them more than the joke about there being more Pandas than scottish tory MPs.
Well, it seems somehow inappropriate to be comparing Red Pandas with Scottish Tory MPs. Captive breeding of the latter is not permissible under European law, for a start. And it's the Red bit that seems somehow wrong. But numerically there is not that much in it. I am not sure how many Red Pandas there are in Scotland, but it may be as few as 2 or 3, at the Highland Wildlife Park.
At any rate Mr Anorak is certainly to be commended for his freedom from speciesism (and generism and familialism).
Do you understand that a poll after Obrowne's incompetent and toxic intervention shows the Yes and No vote still narrowing no matter how much you wish it didn't? No?
Mick Pork - The fieldwork is BEFORE the currency debate exploded. Certainly before any of the public noticed it - please bear in mind this. It may be a positive or a negative but this poll can't be a reflection of that as the fieldwork was prior.
The TNS poll was before, the Survation was in the middle of Eck greetin about being bullied by the posh boys - and shows more than half "yes" voters wanting a plan B....(and only SNP voters more likely to vote Yes as a result of the currency issue)
You mean the currency non-issue? In case you haven't noticed we are already in a currency union with Jersey, Guernsey etc and it seems to work perfectly well despite the fact that they aren't even in the EU, never mind the UK.
PanelBase found strong support for a currency union and, while there may have been a blip in the midst of Osborne's ill-judged intervention last week, I suspect that very few people would be bothered if Scotland used Sterling post independence.
We need to find some new tunes – and some positivity, instead of these endless technocratic arguments. It's not as if a country has never left the UK – Ireland did so perfectly successfully. The trick is to make the case, the vision, for the union.
It's been pointed out to you several times that we are NOT in a currency Union with the Crown dependencies.
Ed Balls intervened last week too - was that misjudged?
The Panelbase poll is 3 months old, and the wording of the question may not be the most neutral possible.
I agree new tunes would be welcome - when will we hear them from Labour, who do after all have the biggest dog in this fight....?
I would not regard Ireland's departure from the UK as an example of a successful process - thank goodness we'll escape that if Scotland does separate.
MPC: interest rates likely to start rising in Spring 2015...
What great timing for the government - homeowners hammered just before the election. You couldn't make it up.
Far, far more people gain from rising interest rates.
Not only do many, many more people have savings than mortgages but many mortgages are fixed rate anyway so won't move straight away.
Perhaps but those groups are massively concentrated in the Baby Boom generation, who are already a solidly Blue cohort. Gen X is the Red cohort you need to turn – and they have massive mortgages.
I think you're right. Plus, someone whacks 1% on my savings rate and I'm pleased, but it's no game-changer. Someone whacks 1% on my mortgage and all of a sudden it's rice pudding three times a week and no summer holiday. That's a game- (and vote-) changer.
Mick - Whatever the polling impact at least people in Scotland will now know how the rUK SNP will react post-independence. It would be unfair to them not to correct Salmond's Osborne's absurd bluster.
Fixed that for you.
And so the Osbornegasm continues with not a whiff of reality creeping in to the right wing dominated PB.
It's a Yes/No referendum. Both sides are not going to agree. Give that searingly obvious fact pretending that all the No side's assertions are facts and are also somehow immutable to scottish public opinion simply isn't going to get the No side anywhere. Particularly when we've just had polling evidence that shows all Osborne's intervention has done is narrow the polling even further. You don't need to like it, but that is precisely what has happened.
Has it crossed anyone's mind that Osborne has deliberately upset the Nats, knowing full well Balls would have to follow suit thus causing damage to SLab?
I know they are useless at actual politics but this may be a very smart move by the Tories.
Then again.......
Mr Balls did not have to join in the advance trailing of the Messrs Osborne and Alexander roadshow. He could have waited and said 'They're tories, but they have that particular point right this time' without getting publicly into bed with them. That, I think, was the critical element (as at least one other PBer commented).
The afternoon thread maybe slightly later than usual, as I've only started to write it after spending 2 hours trying to work out what I should write about.
I do hope it's Scotland. ;-)
Oooh, Yes! We haven'y had a Scottish thread for so long. Another 8 hours of mostly the same people repeating mostly the same things is just what the site needs.
Cammie, Osbrowne, PB Tories, PB Romney, Chorttle, Osbornegasm, Unspoofable, Hilarious, Shrieking etc. etc.
No pandas today? Disappointing.
EDIT: Checked. No pandas. I expected more.
Would a Red Panda (Ailurus fulgens) do?
You'll have to forgive the shriekers. Few things upset them more than the joke about there being more Pandas than scottish tory MPs.
Well, it seems somehow inappropriate to be comparing Red Pandas with Scottish Tory MPs. Captive breeding of the latter is not permissible under European law, for a start. And it's the Red bit that seems somehow wrong. But numerically there is not that much in it. I am not sure how many Red Pandas there are in Scotland, but it may be as few as 2 or 3, at the Highland Wildlife Park.
At any rate Mr Anorak is certainly to be commended for his freedom from speciesism (and generism and familialism).
PS: suddenly realised. Not everyone will know that there are pandas and pandas. Giant Pandas are big and black and white. Red Pandas are small and red.
MPC: interest rates likely to start rising in Spring 2015...
What great timing for the government - homeowners hammered just before the election. You couldn't make it up.
Far, far more people gain from rising interest rates.
Not only do many, many more people have savings than mortgages but many mortgages are fixed rate anyway so won't move straight away.
Perhaps but those groups are massively concentrated in the Baby Boom generation, who are already a solidly Blue cohort. Gen X is the Red cohort you need to turn – and they have massive mortgages.
I think you're right. Plus, someone whacks 1% on my savings rate and I'm pleased, but it's no game-changer. Someone whacks 1% on my mortgage and all of a sudden it's rice pudding three times a week and no summer holiday. That's a game- (and vote-) changer.
The afternoon thread maybe slightly later than usual, as I've only started to write it after spending 2 hours trying to work out what I should write about.
I do hope it's Scotland. ;-)
Oooh, Yes! We haven'y had a Scottish thread for so long. Another 8 hours of mostly the same people repeating mostly the same things is just what the site needs.
Cammie, Osbrowne, PB Tories, PB Romney, Chorttle, Osbornegasm, Unspoofable, Hilarious, Shrieking etc. etc.
No pandas today? Disappointing.
EDIT: Checked. No pandas. I expected more.
Would a Red Panda (Ailurus fulgens) do?
You'll have to forgive the shriekers. Few things upset them more than the joke about there being more Pandas than scottish tory MPs.
At any rate Mr Anorak is certainly to be commended for his freedom from speciesism (and generism and familialism).
Commendation gratefully received. Votes for pandas (red or giant)!
With this discussion and Pork caving in and trotting out his faithful joke again, I am truly sated, panda-wise.
Mick - Whatever the polling impact at least people in Scotland will now know how the rUK SNP will react post-independence. It would be unfair to them not to correct Salmond's Osborne's absurd bluster.
Fixed that for you.
And so the Osbornegasm continues with not a whiff of reality creeping in to the right wing dominated PB.
It's a Yes/No referendum. Both sides are not going to agree. Give that searingly obvious fact pretending that all the No side's assertions are facts and are also somehow immutable to scottish public opinion simply isn't going to get the No side anywhere. Particularly when we've just had polling evidence that shows all Osborne's intervention has done is narrow the polling even further. You don't need to like it, but that is precisely what has happened.
Has it crossed anyone's mind that Osborne has deliberately upset the Nats, knowing full well Balls would have to follow suit thus causing damage to SLab?
I know they are useless at actual politics but this may be a very smart move by the Tories.
Then again.......
Nigel,I was watching the Scottish parliament and every time sturgeon mentioned s-labours new found friends the tories,the faces on the labour side was cringe filled ;-)
Mick - Whatever the polling impact at least people in Scotland will now know how the rUK SNP will react post-independence. It would be unfair to them not to correct Salmond's Osborne's absurd bluster.
Fixed that for you.
And so the Osbornegasm continues with not a whiff of reality creeping in to the right wing dominated PB.
It's a Yes/No referendum. Both sides are not going to agree. Give that searingly obvious fact pretending that all the No side's assertions are facts and are also somehow immutable to scottish public opinion simply isn't going to get the No side anywhere. Particularly when we've just had polling evidence that shows all Osborne's intervention has done is narrow the polling even further. You don't need to like it, but that is precisely what has happened.
Has it crossed anyone's mind that Osborne has deliberately upset the Nats, knowing full well Balls would have to follow suit thus causing damage to SLab?
I know they are useless at actual politics but this may be a very smart move by the Tories.
Then again.......
Mr Balls did not have to join in the advance trailing of the Messrs Osborne and Alexander roadshow. He could have waited and said 'They're tories, but they have that particular point right this time' without getting publicly into bed with them. That, I think, was the critical element (as at least one other PBer commented).
It was also interesting that Gordon Brown was rigorously "on message" when interviewed about pensions - he refused to get drawn into the currency question "I'm here today to talk about pensions" - felt like a pre-agreed plan, it's unlike our former Chancellor & PM not to have a view on such matters...
MPC: interest rates likely to start rising in Spring 2015...
What great timing for the government - homeowners hammered just before the election. You couldn't make it up.
Play it right and the Tories can blame it on fear of a Labour government...
Sounds like some of the 'strategies' we see suggested on here.
You can get away with a lot in an election campaign. Part of it is media balance: If one side says that white is black and the other says that white is white, the news programs will dutifully report both points of view, leaving floating voters thinking that it's all very complicated and white is probably some shade of grey.
Unconfirmed reports suggest Ivor Codpiece, Ukip Councillor for Somerset Levels West, has said that George Michael cruising in the Bristol Channel is responsible for the earthquake reported there this lunchtime by the British Geographical Survey :
"The trick is to make the case, the vision, for the union. "
Why? If the Scots want to go their own way I see no reason why anyone outside Scotland should seek to try and persuade them otherwise. I do think it right and proper though that if their plans are based on unrealistic expectations of what the Westminster government, or indeed the EU, would do then that should be pointed out before they make a decision.
For example the Lisbon treaty is quite clear that the accession of a new state requires unanimous approval of existing members. Given the situation is Spain that may be difficult, if not impossible, to achieve. If someone from the EU points that out it is not preposterous, or bullying, or bluster. It is, to paraphrase Ed Balls on the issue of a future currency union, a statement of the reality of the situation.
That, I think, was the critical element (as at least one other PBer commented).
This is about real politik.
Balls daren't risk looking like he and labour were going to give a foreign country a say in the currency of what remained of his voters. Even with 40 mps at stake.
Not when his opponents were decisive in their rejection.
Mick and Co. have loudly harangued Osborne for his decision, but in truth he had no choice, and neither do the other RUK main streamers.
You mean the currency non-issue? In case you haven't noticed we are already in a currency union with Jersey, Guernsey etc and it seems to work perfectly well despite the fact that they aren't even in the EU, never mind the UK.
PanelBase found strong support for a currency union and, while there may have been a blip in the midst of Osborne's ill-judged intervention last week, I suspect that very few people would be bothered if Scotland used Sterling post independence.
We need to find some new tunes – and some positivity, instead of these endless technocratic arguments. It's not as if a country has never left the UK – Ireland did so perfectly successfully. The trick is to make the case, the vision, for the union.
Here's the big secret, but don't tell the tories whatever you do!
It wasn't just Osborne and his amusingly out of touch tory image, wonderful as that was. It's the fact that the EU and currency are way, way down the list of priorities for scottish voters. 7th and 8th with a tiny 3% and 2% rating them most important.
Basing the entire No campaign on that was always incredibly stupid. All the more so since they couldn't even get the rollout of their currency policy right.
What they should have done since they mistakenly think currency really is the magic bullet was to coordinate across all three parties and have a staged rollout so keeping it in the public eye for weeks not a few days.
Week 1. Find the best possible face for it which would have been labour and one of their spokesman. Balls is still not very popular mind (assuming they didn't want Darling, Brown or Murphy to do it) but Balls it would likely have been.
Week 2. Wee Danny. Toxic but it's a close run thing with Osborne and the lib dems and they can't get someone the scottish public likes like Charles Kennedy so wee Danny it is.
Week 3. The hardest of all. Given Cammie seems to be less toxic than Osborne maybe even he would have been better but it wouldn't be by much and he should be joined by any remaining scottish tory presence like Ruth Davidson.
There you have it. Three weeks of wall to wall blasting of the same message easing the scottish public into it before unleashing the tories.
Too late now.
Oh and here's the other vital bit. That's three weeks out of the seven months remaining. So even if it was a magic bullet (it's not) and even if it had some effect to help No (no sign of that so far, quite the opposite) how on earth do they keep that up from now until September 18? They don't and the scottish public soon gets very tired of the negativity.
At independence would every current UK passport become an invalid travel document? I expect the passport office will need a practical plan on replacement of the entire nation's stock of passports. And the new Scotland will need a similar plan.
"People wishing to stand as an MP must be over 18 years of age, be a British citizen or citizen of a Commonwealth country or the Republic of Ireland"
From parliament.uk.
I suppose they would bolt on "Or Scotland."
Scotland is part of Britain and will remain so, it is the UK that will cease to exist, British Isles will still remain.
No quite so.
You are confusing the nation that is the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland that presently by various Acts of Union includes Scotland and the geographic Britain and British Isles that also includes the Republic of Ireland.
An independent Scotland would no longer be a member of the first but would be of the second and third.
The remaining elements of the UK may still wish to be called UK as the nation of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland or The United Kingdom of England Wales and Northern Ireland. The former is more likely as Great Britain is a political construct rather than a geographic one.
Jack , I may be losing my mind but I thought I said that th eonly thing that changed was the UK, so all you have done is elaborate more fully on my answer. Or am I confused.
Yes you are losing your mind .... but you'll get in back after the NO on 18 Sep .... Chortle ....
You indicated that the UK would cease to exist. In its present form yes but in the amended form as I illustrated no.
Jack, so technically we are both correct. I leave for Catalonia on the 19th of September ( well Malaga actually but close enough ) so will be giving them tips on how to get a YES..
Malaga? Meet you for a beer there I hope - hopefully we will both be celebrating the result.
geoff, I am actually going about 40 miles into the hills from Malaga, near Villanueva Del Trabuco , in a converted farmhouse.
Survation have now published their note on methodological changes.
The lead for No has been reduced by 10.8%, compared to the previous poll. Of this, 6.5% is due to weighting changes (SNP supporters are weighted up from 30% to 37%) and 4.3% is a shift in opinion.
......the change in methodology means that the results of our most recent Scottish poll should not be described as showing changes in public opinion compared to our previous Scottish poll
Oh dear.......as some of us pointed out well before the Eckgasm took over......but it didn't last long....
So basically No down 4% and YES up 4% plus show reality weighting , is no change, unbelievable.
Comments
PanelBase found strong support for a currency union and, while there may have been a blip in the midst of Osborne's ill-judged intervention last week, I suspect that very few people would be bothered if Scotland used Sterling post independence.
We need to find some new tunes – and some positivity, instead of these endless technocratic arguments. It's not as if a country has never left the UK – Ireland did so perfectly successfully. The trick is to make the case, the vision, for the union.
Osborne's speech was on the 16th, and Salmond's "deconstruction" on the 17th.
It will be worth waiting a few weeks to see what the settled conclusion is.
Meanwhile,
Two-thirds of Scots want Alex Salmond to reveal currency Plan B
Study finds that majority want First Minister to create an alternative to formally sharing the pound before the referendum - but also reveals a poll boost for independence since George Osborne's intervention
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/scottish-politics/10644507/Two-thirds-of-Scots-want-Alex-Salmond-to-reveal-currency-Plan-B.html
I'll be delighted to see the No campaign carry on precisely as they have been from now until september thanks.
I know they are useless at actual politics but this may be a very smart move by the Tories.
Then again.......
At any rate Mr Anorak is certainly to be commended for his freedom from speciesism (and generism and familialism).
Ed Balls intervened last week too - was that misjudged?
The Panelbase poll is 3 months old, and the wording of the question may not be the most neutral possible.
I agree new tunes would be welcome - when will we hear them from Labour, who do after all have the biggest dog in this fight....?
I would not regard Ireland's departure from the UK as an example of a successful process - thank goodness we'll escape that if Scotland does separate.
With this discussion and Pork caving in and trotting out his faithful joke again, I am truly sated, panda-wise.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-26277432
Why? If the Scots want to go their own way I see no reason why anyone outside Scotland should seek to try and persuade them otherwise. I do think it right and proper though that if their plans are based on unrealistic expectations of what the Westminster government, or indeed the EU, would do then that should be pointed out before they make a decision.
For example the Lisbon treaty is quite clear that the accession of a new state requires unanimous approval of existing members. Given the situation is Spain that may be difficult, if not impossible, to achieve. If someone from the EU points that out it is not preposterous, or bullying, or bluster. It is, to paraphrase Ed Balls on the issue of a future currency union, a statement of the reality of the situation.
This is about real politik.
Balls daren't risk looking like he and labour were going to give a foreign country a say in the currency of what remained of his voters. Even with 40 mps at stake.
Not when his opponents were decisive in their rejection.
Mick and Co. have loudly harangued Osborne for his decision, but in truth he had no choice, and neither do the other RUK main streamers.
I suspect the nats know that, deep down.
It wasn't just Osborne and his amusingly out of touch tory image, wonderful as that was.
It's the fact that the EU and currency are way, way down the list of priorities for scottish voters. 7th and 8th with a tiny 3% and 2% rating them most important.
Basing the entire No campaign on that was always incredibly stupid.
All the more so since they couldn't even get the rollout of their currency policy right.
What they should have done since they mistakenly think currency really is the magic bullet was to coordinate across all three parties and have a staged rollout so keeping it in the public eye for weeks not a few days.
Week 1. Find the best possible face for it which would have been labour and one of their spokesman. Balls is still not very popular mind (assuming they didn't want Darling, Brown or Murphy to do it) but Balls it would likely have been.
Week 2. Wee Danny. Toxic but it's a close run thing with Osborne and the lib dems and they can't get someone the scottish public likes like Charles Kennedy so wee Danny it is.
Week 3. The hardest of all. Given Cammie seems to be less toxic than Osborne maybe even he would have been better but it wouldn't be by much and he should be joined by any remaining scottish tory presence like Ruth Davidson.
There you have it. Three weeks of wall to wall blasting of the same message easing the scottish public into it before unleashing the tories.
Too late now.
Oh and here's the other vital bit. That's three weeks out of the seven months remaining. So even if it was a magic bullet (it's not) and even if it had some effect to help No (no sign of that so far, quite the opposite) how on earth do they keep that up from now until September 18? They don't and the scottish public soon gets very tired of the negativity.