Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first Indyref conducted after Osborne’s intervention is
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first Indyref conducted after Osborne’s intervention is out
As Mike correctly forecast the Edinburgh confrontation over the currency might be just what the YES campaign wants, as Yes goes up 6% and no goes down 5%, the changes are from the Survation poll carried out at the end of January. (Note the reason why the changes don’t net off to zero is because of rounding)
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Let the shrieking commence!!
Or not.
Thanks, worth waiting for.
It may be spooky sound of PB right wingers trying to come up with some way of saying this Bowie speech delivered by someone else is what they've been waiting for to seal it for the No campaign without them sounding utterly ridiculous.
"In Japanese myth, the rabbits on my old costume that Kate’s wearing actually live on the moon, Kate comes from Venus and I'm from Mars. So that's nice!! I’m completely delighted to have a BRIT for being the best male. But I am, aren't I Kate? I think it's a great way to end the day. Thank you very, very much. Scotland please stay with us."
A most satisfying day all in all. It's always gratifying to be proved right on multiple fronts.
More hard work awaits of course but there's going to be quite a bit of anger from labour now as to the 'wisdom' of Cammie and Osborne's master strategy. They hardly sounded convinced as it was. The blame game might just start to get very loud indeed among 'better together'.
A good betting market might be the top reasons found for discrediting Survation.
the Guardian aiming to help the YES campaign too. pity I guess their circulation is fairly minimal in Scotland
*ROARS OF LAUGHTER ETC*
Hahaahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaaahhahahahhaa
hahahahahahahhahahhahhahhahahhahhahhahahaaaa
Haaaahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaaa!!
Oh dear.
wonderful.
Only on PB.
While I dislike nationalism, as it is too frequently based on negative and distasteful emotions and views, it appeals too easily to hate and rhetoric, I will wish them well on the new adventure, and be sad to see them go.
Do you even know the differences between the three unionist parties over more powers?
They do not and can not agree on everything and on some things the difference are far more than cosmetic.
You can stick to Osbrowne's assertions all you like as you do seem fond of being gullible enough to believe any old posturing, just like on the Veto flounce or the IN/OUT referendum. The point you still just can't grasp is they are assertions and this is all about trust.
Both sides are not going to agree. What part of this being a YES/NO referendum didn't you get? So it's blatantly obvious the scottish public will have to choose who they believe. It certainly won't be PB tories and right wingers doing the choosing or persuading. You thought Osbrowne was a good idea. You were wrong. Suck it up.
So it was a double blunder in that Scottish people felt they were being bullied, and over an issue which they didn't care about to boot and so did not fear the "worst case scenario" that the Westminster politicans were threatening them with anyway. The "No" campaign desperately need to start making emotional arguments about why they should stay in the UK, rather than these absurd technocratic arguments which are completely removed from what people care about (I see Danny Alexander earlier was scaremongering about what "the markets" would do if Scotland went independent, a line of attack which would similarly backfire most probably).
Interesting day on the financial markets - the S&P made it to 1847, but not over the 1850 high at 16th January. Technical indicators pointing to strong falls into the end of February now. Expecting a bounce in March, may not even be the last high now, but its only a matter of time - am still expecting something big to happen in April, and specifically around Easter - lets see.
I don't know how Bangkok taxi drivers make any money: I had a 45 minute drive from one side of the city to the other and it cost about £3.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/m/8/A3_plots-precip-DJF-2.pdf
EPIC FAIL based on failed AGW models.
Good night all.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/m/8/A3_plots-precip-DJF-2.pdf
Good night all.
True there might be some polling that isn't quite in line with these two later on but that's not even close to being a MOE swing. So I'm afraid that those who have been shrieking for a week on this, predicting disaster and apocalypse for the Yes campaign, the SNP and Salmond, better find something far more convincing than 'this was always the intended effect' for the next week.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
'If even GO can't get Yes out of the 30s, the cause is lost.'
I thought with all the shrieking & hysteria Yes had at least drawn level.
I took the rhetorical question as an example of the First Minister's caustic self-mockery.
After registering the complaint on Saturday he had a 20–minute telephone conversation with a police sergeant who told him the matter would not be reported to prosecutors.
"he told me that those that had discussed the complaint within Lothian and Borders Police had concluded that although Mr Salmond was foolish, their collective belief was that the specific passage in the speech was an attack on what he referred to as people of the upper class."
Even the polis knew fine well they were dealing with a green ink type of nutcase.
More please. "Lord Snootys". Compared to the shrieking from the scottish tory surgers and right wingers on here that's so mild as to be a compliment. Even little Ed has piled far more harsh insults on the fop than that without his supporters blubbering like toddlers.
I hope to god that gets far more coverage than just the Torygraph. That's gold for the Yes campaign. I shall be using that myself elsewhere thanks.
How proud you must be of Osborne and his speech right now dear? No? No praise at all?
The golden rule proved conclusively yet again.
The PB tories are always wrong. The PB tories never learn.
The effect of Survation’s weighting, predictably, has been to increase the estimated No lead considerably. Before the data were weighted at all (including to make sure that the sample matches the demographic profile of Scotland), the Yes tally stood as high as 43% (after the Don’t Knows are excluded). The weighting has knocked as much as five points off that figure. It looks highly likely that if Survation had followed the same practice as most other pollsters, the reported Yes vote in this poll would have been over 40% – just as it was in last weekend’s ICM poll and is in this weekend’s TNS BMRB poll.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/02/survation-enter-the-fray/
David Clegg @davieclegg 5h
A lot of bemused David Bowie fans from across the world are currently meeting the cybernats over on his facebook page.
euan mccolm @euanmccolm 5h
actually, it would be holyrood's greatest day if every no voting msp wore the lightning strike make up tomorrow.
It would appear Survation has changed its methodology and this latest one is not comparable with the January survey which was turnout weighted to 2010 Westminster VI.
I'm assuming it was turnout weighted to Holyrood VI.
How is that being proud of Osborne?
Mick, how about waking up to reality and dealing with facts and not this never ending smearing of one group as having some uniform level of daftness? There is no "one view" amongst PB Conservatives on this, to pretend otherwise is deceitful and reduces the value of the site as a place to read interesting views.
"It would appear Survation has changed its methodology and this latest one is not comparable with the January survey which was turnout weighted to 2010 Westminster VI"
Or maybe not...........
Telegraph - Lloyds to domicile TSB in England as Scottish fears mount
28. "Sorry for suggesting that there was a Scottish mafia in the Labour party consisting of Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Alistair Darling, Charles Falconer, Derry Irvine, Michael Martin and John Reid. Apart from the obvious fact that this would be the most effete mafia in mob history, it's unfair to suggest that there's a Scottish conspiracy to ruin Westminster. Or (sinister face) is there?"
57. "Sorry for laughing when Alex Salmond said an independent Scotland's fiscal future was secure because you were sitting on £1tn of North Sea oil and had a long-standing budget surplus. Maybe he's right. After all he is an economist, albeit one at the worst bank in the history of banking, namely the Royal Bank of Scotland."
75. "... We have tried to stop being wankers, but it's really hard! That's just how we are. But we realise that we have thereby contributed to your tragi-comic national psyche. Our bad. Sorry!"
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/feb/19/scottish-independence-76-things-apologise
Don't take 7-2, 4.08/1 (5.3 after commission) is available on Betfair for YES.
The result will be No but as ever BET WHEN THE PRICE IS WRONG not with what you think will happen.
When it comes to bullying, the best that can be said for Alex Salmond and his acolytes is that they're no slouches in that direction. After all, it takes one to know one.
SNP Depute Leader and Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said:
"This is an exceptionally encouraging poll for the Yes campaign and SNP – when 'don't knows' are excluded, Yes support is now up to 45 per cent, putting us within 5 points of success in September.
"It is clear that there has been a severe backlash to George Osborne's bluster and threats on the pound – with more than half of the No campaign’s lead wiped out in just three weeks, and far more people more likely to vote Yes on the back of the Westminster establishment’s attempted bullying rather than No.
http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/feb/gap-down-just-nine-points-after-osborne-threat
52 per cent of people think it would be in the interests of the rest of the UK to join a currency union with an independent Scotland - more than twice the 25 per cent who disagree. 23 per cent don't know.
48 per cent of people back a currency union - more support than for all the other options added together - which translates into 55 per cent when don't knows are excluded.
Constituency vote: SNP: 44%, Lab: 31%, Con: 13%, Lib Dem: 6%
Regional list vote: SNP: 41%, Lab: 30%, Con: 13%, Lib Dem: 8%
Westminster: SNP: 38%,Lab: 33%,Con: 17%, Lib Dem: 6%
Funny Nicola didn't mention that......
If Survation have changed their methodology the swing may not be as great but the results are perhaps more indicative than their earlier surveys based on Westminster voting intentions. There is nothing on their website yet.
Why is it that we only get second or third division polling in Scotland? It is very frustrating.
As I have repeatedly said this is not over. I don't think those commenting from England are getting the full picture. They have the perception that there are two campaigns slogging it out. It is not like that. The "no" campaign is invisible apart from interviews in the media.
The Labour party need to step up to the plate and get a grip. September is by far the biggest single threat to Miliband ever getting to Downing Street. I just don't get why they are putting in so little effort.
EXACTLY as I feared and forecast.
One for TGOHF, Carlotta and ScottP to digest.
I guess having Osborne telling the Scots where to go wasn't a great idea after all hey chaps?
We are losing this campaign, Salmond running rings around us again.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2014/02/to-win-the-referendum-salmond-desperately-needs-to-be-bullied-by-cameron.html
On Beeb2 and Beeb on-line
Coverage SOTB has been pretty minimal largely because the campaign has been ridiculously long ( and tedious to date ). I'd expect the tempo to pick up as we get closer to the vote much the same as any other election.
PB isn't really the place to get a good feel for where things are in Scotland since our contributors consist of hardline nats and hardline unionists. There are very few middle of the road Scots on the board and we've suffered in the debate from having no SLAB bloggers to even out the picture or give an alternative view.
As to how campaigning is going I suspect last week was the first serious shots of the campaign and the intensity will increase from here on in with a break of sorts for the Euros in May.
What I cannot see is Miliband as PM based on the votes of MPs from what is soon going to be an independent country. That really would be absurd.
Lord Snooty? But that's a Dundee comic character ... and also an example of the Tory tendency to equate criticism of Tory policies with anti-Englishness, and criticism of people from outside with ditto (didn't know Mr Barroso was English ...).
In any case I argued - and maintain - that the intervention in the debate was to be welcomed as an injection of reality into the debate - whatever it's short term impact on the polls.....
As that old joke concludes "Oh Lord, we didna ken" and The Lord, in his infinite wisdom, compassion and mercy said "Weel, ye ken noo"
It's been suggested that some interim arrangement to replace the Barnett Formula would be needed, to reduce the number of supposedly "English" HoC votes where there is a genuinely Scottish element through Barnett linkage, and this would be sensible. However, whether the Scottish MPs of the unionist parties, mainly Labour, could resist temptation and follow the SNP who currently avoid truly English-only votes would remain to be seen.
Because I think there'll be big Changes in the voting after his intervention, with one side Under Pressure and the other side will be Dancing in the street. They will end up saying David Bowie is on of the Heroes of the Campaign.
I'll get my coat.
No so far has none of this. You might be right that it is too early and the effort will start now but I fear that SLAB are (a) incompetent and (b) too conflicted internally to campaign effectively.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-union/26257162
thanks
Hmmmm
Not at all surprised by the closing polls. It is 1998 all over again. The NO campaign may have all the logical reasoning behind it just as the No No campaign did in 1998 but when people are unhappy with the status quo they never look backwards and always reach out to try something new instead. Scotland is walking straight into independence.
I just wish my sensible chums in the YES camp would admit we will be out of the EU and Nato, will have borders at Berwick and Gretna and will need to revert to the Groat or something similar. As for discussions with rUK they will be far from harmonious. They will be incredibly bloody and it will be at that point we Scots will finally realise Eck and chums have been looking through frosted, rose tinted glasses. Reality post 19th September will be unpleasant for several years.
And why would SLAB be "too conflicted internally"? :Innocent Face:
'Different methodology' currently Top of the Discredit Survation Pops.
Mr. Eagles, Scotland knew what they were getting with Robinson after his less than glorious reign at Twickenham. Bloody odd decision to hire him.
From the BBC F1 livefeed: "After doing just eight laps on the first day of public testing of the new E22, the Franco-Swiss admitted the team would not even try to find the best handling balance before the first race. 'I don't really care about set-up work,' Grosjean said. 'That's going to be when we are in free practice (in Melbourne). It's just about fixing all the issues and making sure the car is in one piece when we do long runs.'""