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Huge blow for Sunak as Supreme Court flings out his Rwanda plan – politicalbetting.com

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  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    algarkirk said:

    boulay said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    Chris said:

    kle4 said:

    So, Sunak is going to use his majority to pass emergency legislation to declare that Rwanda is a safe country. That is potentially a tremendous power: declare something about a foreign country over which we have no jurisdiction to be the case and it is the case.

    If parliament has such power it could then be fruitfully used, to give a couple of examples off the top of my head, to declare that Russia has no right to be in Ukraine, or that violence on all sides in Gaza should cease.

    Well, it's not as though he believes Parliament has the power to make such a thing happen, but he is presumably correct it has the power to declare such a thing, or any of your examples too.
    Coming soon - a manifesto commitment to hold back the tide?
    Missing out the rest of the post kind of misses the intended point that in some cases they can achieve something by declaring something legally to be the case, even if in most cases they cannot. If they make it legally the case Rwanda is safe (with whatever bells and whistles they need to achieve that - guarantees, committments etc), then they can act even if it really is not safe, whereas declaring the tide can be stopped cannot advance any goal that requires it to be stopped.

    So it may be a dumb strategy, but I don't think it is as dumb as its being presented as on its face by comparing to tides and the like, because the Rwanda issue is essentially about an opinion or interpretation of another state, not an immutable natural force.
    But we are actually talking about something real here. Whether people are going to be safe if they are sent to Rwanda. Whether they are killed, beaten, imprisoned or raped is not really an airy-fairy matter of opinion that is going to be changed by a declaration made in Parliament.


    The age of consent has made a 16 year old considered mature enough to legally have sex - it’s a “fact” made by law, applicable in this country and to those who are visiting but not an absolute - evidenced by other countries having different ages of consent. It is not always appropriate as there are many vulnerable people aged 16 and 17 who can suffer horribly as they aren’t emotionally mature enough or truly able to consent to sex but we accept this fact/law.

    So government can clearly make “facts” through a declaration made in Parliament.
    This argument could fairly be called a work in progress, perhaps with room for improvement.
    You will be pleased to know I deleted a load more of it as I’m too tired and brain given up but felt obliged to type some sort of nonsense as is the way of today’s world.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BTW, we do all know that small boat crossing have dropped dramatically this year, right?

    At the beginning of the year, Ms Braverman warned that 85,000 people might come by boats this year, roughly double the number in 2022.

    As of 11 November, we're at 27,314. So, instead of doubling this year, we're going to be down around about 40%.

    Why?

    Partly because the French have been a bit more helpful, and partly because we now do a much better job of returning Albanians. Ms Bravermam should be shouting from the rafters about how she's dramatically cut the number of boat arrivals, But that doesn't fit her narrative.

    How can Albania - a country which is neither large, next door to us, or at war - have been responsible for quite so many migrants?
    Because criminal gangs are well tapped in there and they found a loophole in the small print to enable economic migrants to claim asylum en masse.
    Anyone can *claim* asylum.

    The key is to ensure that (a) people are processed and deported rapidly if asylum is rejected, and (b) that they do not disappear into the local informal economy along the way.

    The UK is pretty poor on both of these. The Dutch have a dashboard showing average asylum processing times and for those coming from EU / EEA / Switzerland / UK, then 96% are processed within 11 weeks.

    Why can't we do similarly? It would almost certainly save us an absolute fortune, and discourage those whose claims are not likely to be accepted.

    And we also do really poorly on people disappearing. Norway estimates they have only 300 failed asylum seekers in the whole country! Now, sure, they're smaller than us. So, scaled upwards that would be maybe 6,000. But 6,000 would still be absolute peanuts compared to now.
    Upscaled pro rata by population it would be about 3,700 in the UK.

    This is what completely baffles me. Rather than invest £140m+ in Rwanda, why not just make the f*cking asylum system work? Buy in the Norwegian or Dutch teams to show us how to do it properly, if necessary.
  • Have I not said that Trump and the GOP are now practically fascist? And here it is.
  • Only person I can think of addressed as R is the monarch. R, short for Regina previously or Rex now IIRC.

    If Charles has fallen already that'd surely be big news though.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275

    Is the ECHR a "foreign" court?

    It is a court of all the signatories surely???

    The spineless gimp is just reverting to the Bozo playbook .
  • R falls

    What or who is R?
    Amendment R in King's votey thingy.

  • Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    7m
    Do you back SNP’s call for a ceasefire

    Yes: 125
    No: 293

    That’s a big number for an SNP amendment, suggests a lot Lab MPs voted with SNP (which has 43 MPs)
  • Andy_JS said:

    "Steven Edginton
    @StevenEdginton
    💥Anonymous Home Office official explains why no matter who is Home Secretary, Britain's borders will remain wide open:

    "Despite our change in boss, when it comes to controlling Britain’s borders nothing will change. I know this because I have worked for some time as a civil servant on immigration policy, and – in my experience – no priority is further from the Home Office in 2023 than stopping the boats or cutting net migration."

    https://twitter.com/StevenEdginton/status/1724762963213480011

    In fact, I suspect its quite the opposite.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    R falls

    What or who is R?
    Amendment R in King's votey thingy.

    'R' right, thanks.
  • Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    7m
    Do you back SNP’s call for a ceasefire

    Yes: 125
    No: 293

    That’s a big number for an SNP amendment, suggests a lot Lab MPs voted with SNP (which has 43 MPs)

    Simply deselect all the trots. Think about how strong Labour would be without morons like Richard Burgon.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Sounds like Sunak is doubling down rather than facing off the right tbh

    It's all words though.

    Unless, and here's the real twist, Cameron actually proves quite effective in brokering bilateral deals that help make it happen.
  • nico679 said:

    Is the ECHR a "foreign" court?

    It is a court of all the signatories surely???

    The spineless gimp is just reverting to the Bozo playbook .
    Except for the bit where he brings back Cameron Minor.

    No way Bozo would do that.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BTW, we do all know that small boat crossing have dropped dramatically this year, right?

    At the beginning of the year, Ms Braverman warned that 85,000 people might come by boats this year, roughly double the number in 2022.

    As of 11 November, we're at 27,314. So, instead of doubling this year, we're going to be down around about 40%.

    Why?

    Partly because the French have been a bit more helpful, and partly because we now do a much better job of returning Albanians. Ms Bravermam should be shouting from the rafters about how she's dramatically cut the number of boat arrivals, But that doesn't fit her narrative.

    How can Albania - a country which is neither large, next door to us, or at war - have been responsible for quite so many migrants?
    Because criminal gangs are well tapped in there and they found a loophole in the small print to enable economic migrants to claim asylum en masse.
    Anyone can *claim* asylum.

    The key is to ensure that (a) people are processed and deported rapidly if asylum is rejected, and (b) that they do not disappear into the local informal economy along the way.

    The UK is pretty poor on both of these. The Dutch have a dashboard showing average asylum processing times and for those coming from EU / EEA / Switzerland / UK, then 96% are processed within 11 weeks.

    Why can't we do similarly? It would almost certainly save us an absolute fortune, and discourage those whose claims are not likely to be accepted.

    And we also do really poorly on people disappearing. Norway estimates they have only 300 failed asylum seekers in the whole country! Now, sure, they're smaller than us. So, scaled upwards that would be maybe 6,000. But 6,000 would still be absolute peanuts compared to now.
    Upscaled pro rata by population it would be about 3,700 in the UK.

    This is what completely baffles me. Rather than invest £140m+ in Rwanda, why not just make the f*cking asylum system work? Buy in the Norwegian or Dutch teams to show us how to do it properly, if necessary.
    Because that would require actual effort to reform and properly fund the system, and that in turn would require making a case to the public but in a way that would actually need someone to put in some work. These are not things that the Tories have prioritised.
  • Andy_JS said:

    "Steven Edginton
    @StevenEdginton
    💥Anonymous Home Office official explains why no matter who is Home Secretary, Britain's borders will remain wide open:

    "Despite our change in boss, when it comes to controlling Britain’s borders nothing will change. I know this because I have worked for some time as a civil servant on immigration policy, and – in my experience – no priority is further from the Home Office in 2023 than stopping the boats or cutting net migration."

    https://twitter.com/StevenEdginton/status/1724762963213480011

    In fact, I suspect its quite the opposite.
    I'd be ok with that so long as they were dealing well with people's priorities that affecred them personally.

    Ensuring the Police were beyond reproach.
    Ensuring that passports were quickly and easily available.
    Ensuring criminals are off the streets.
    Ensuring that border control at airports was smooth and without queues.

    *Thinks about those*

    Wait just a second. What is their priority?
  • Andy_JS said:

    "Steven Edginton
    @StevenEdginton
    💥Anonymous Home Office official explains why no matter who is Home Secretary, Britain's borders will remain wide open:

    "Despite our change in boss, when it comes to controlling Britain’s borders nothing will change. I know this because I have worked for some time as a civil servant on immigration policy, and – in my experience – no priority is further from the Home Office in 2023 than stopping the boats or cutting net migration."

    https://twitter.com/StevenEdginton/status/1724762963213480011

    In fact, I suspect its quite the opposite.
    I'd be ok with that so long as they were dealing well with people's priorities that affecred them personally.

    Ensuring the Police were beyond reproach.
    Ensuring that passports were quickly and easily available.
    Ensuring criminals are off the streets.
    Ensuring that border control at airports was smooth and without queues.

    *Thinks about those*

    Wait just a second. What is their priority?
    Their pension.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    The tv media really are pathetic at explaining what happened at the SC . They’ve just ignored that this was more than just an issue around the ECHR and are going to allow the Tories to frame this as a foreign court interfering.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BTW, we do all know that small boat crossing have dropped dramatically this year, right?

    At the beginning of the year, Ms Braverman warned that 85,000 people might come by boats this year, roughly double the number in 2022.

    As of 11 November, we're at 27,314. So, instead of doubling this year, we're going to be down around about 40%.

    Why?

    Partly because the French have been a bit more helpful, and partly because we now do a much better job of returning Albanians. Ms Bravermam should be shouting from the rafters about how she's dramatically cut the number of boat arrivals, But that doesn't fit her narrative.

    How can Albania - a country which is neither large, next door to us, or at war - have been responsible for quite so many migrants?
    Because criminal gangs are well tapped in there and they found a loophole in the small print to enable economic migrants to claim asylum en masse.
    Anyone can *claim* asylum.

    The key is to ensure that (a) people are processed and deported rapidly if asylum is rejected, and (b) that they do not disappear into the local informal economy along the way.

    The UK is pretty poor on both of these. The Dutch have a dashboard showing average asylum processing times and for those coming from EU / EEA / Switzerland / UK, then 96% are processed within 11 weeks.

    Why can't we do similarly? It would almost certainly save us an absolute fortune, and discourage those whose claims are not likely to be accepted.

    And we also do really poorly on people disappearing. Norway estimates they have only 300 failed asylum seekers in the whole country! Now, sure, they're smaller than us. So, scaled upwards that would be maybe 6,000. But 6,000 would still be absolute peanuts compared to now.
    I think on (a) it's also that the criteria for asylum are too loose and there is no cap.

    Otherwise, yes, I'd agree.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,152

    Andy_JS said:

    "Steven Edginton
    @StevenEdginton
    💥Anonymous Home Office official explains why no matter who is Home Secretary, Britain's borders will remain wide open:

    "Despite our change in boss, when it comes to controlling Britain’s borders nothing will change. I know this because I have worked for some time as a civil servant on immigration policy, and – in my experience – no priority is further from the Home Office in 2023 than stopping the boats or cutting net migration."

    https://twitter.com/StevenEdginton/status/1724762963213480011

    In fact, I suspect its quite the opposite.
    I read the full Twitter piece, and I'm afraid I didn't believe it. If it wasn't anonymous, if a high level Home Office official quit, and went on the record, then that would be different, but the piece felt forced.

    For a start, I wouldn't expect Home Office staff to go into meetings and pose the question "how do we cut immigration?", I would expect them to respond to requests for various options that are asked for by their political masters.

    So: is said source saying that Ms Braverman did not ask for options? Or that the Civil Service did not provide her with them after she asked?

    That it isn't couched in those terms makes me very suspicious of its veracity.
  • Only person I can think of addressed as R is the monarch. R, short for Regina previously or Rex now IIRC.

    If Charles has fallen already that'd surely be big news though.

    Not fallen.

    But very very tired after having to keep a straight face and calm delivery whilst he read out the fag-end gruel of his speech to the assembled peers and plebs.
  • R falls

    Covid is over.
  • Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    7m
    Do you back SNP’s call for a ceasefire

    Yes: 125
    No: 293

    That’s a big number for an SNP amendment, suggests a lot Lab MPs voted with SNP (which has 43 MPs)

    Simply deselect all the trots. Think about how strong Labour would be without morons like Richard Burgon.
    Cambridge-educated lawyer.

  • Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    3m
    Looks like 56 Labour MPs voted for the amendment
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,152

    Pulpstar said:

    Sounds like Sunak is doubling down rather than facing off the right tbh

    It's all words though.

    Unless, and here's the real twist, Cameron actually proves quite effective in brokering bilateral deals that help make it happen.
    Well, the bilateral deal with France *has* made a difference. Keeping track of people who've already made applications in other countries and rapidly returning them there would be a real win.

    Not flashy. But effective.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Jess Phillips is a loss to the Labour front bench . What’s clear so far from the resignations is the letters have been very collegiate and there’s no animosity against the Leadership .

  • Saul Staniforth
    @SaulStaniforth
    ·
    1m
    Replying to
    @SaulStaniforth
    A list of the Labour MP's who voted for a ceasefire

    https://twitter.com/SaulStaniforth/status/1724877780662260172
  • Some surprising names in that list surely??
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    edited November 2023
    FPT by @Heathener

    "It is WELL worth reading Suzanne Heywood’s ‘What Does Jeremy Think?’. In fact, I’d urge everyone on here to read it if they haven’t already done so. Although Suzanne is careful, Cameron comes out of it smelling like excrement.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/What-Does-Jeremy-Think-Heywood-ebook/dp/B081ZJCJ3M

    p.s. It’s difficult to see how anyone posting on here about the politics of the last 25 years in this country can do so without having read this book.
    "

    Hmm ..... I did an investigation a few years back where the facts and general schema were remarkably similar to the Greensill story. I have to say that Jeremy Heywood, were he still alive, would have to answer some very difficult questions indeed. I can well understand his widow wanting to defend him but I would be a tad sceptical about what she says. Cameron was a fool but some very senior civil servants, including Heywood, were even bigger fools, frankly.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792

    Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    7m
    Do you back SNP’s call for a ceasefire

    Yes: 125
    No: 293

    That’s a big number for an SNP amendment, suggests a lot Lab MPs voted with SNP (which has 43 MPs)

    Simply deselect all the trots. Think about how strong Labour would be without morons like Richard Burgon.
    Hm. Sounds attractive. I've often fantasised about a politics which had a big party of the centre to do stuff and small parties of the left and right to keep them honest.
    But it almost certainly wouldn't end how one would hope. The nutters would get in eventually (see: next Irish election).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,632
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Steven Edginton
    @StevenEdginton
    💥Anonymous Home Office official explains why no matter who is Home Secretary, Britain's borders will remain wide open:

    "Despite our change in boss, when it comes to controlling Britain’s borders nothing will change. I know this because I have worked for some time as a civil servant on immigration policy, and – in my experience – no priority is further from the Home Office in 2023 than stopping the boats or cutting net migration."

    https://twitter.com/StevenEdginton/status/1724762963213480011

    In fact, I suspect its quite the opposite.
    I read the full Twitter piece, and I'm afraid I didn't believe it. If it wasn't anonymous, if a high level Home Office official quit, and went on the record, then that would be different, but the piece felt forced.

    For a start, I wouldn't expect Home Office staff to go into meetings and pose the question "how do we cut immigration?", I would expect them to respond to requests for various options that are asked for by their political masters.

    So: is said source saying that Ms Braverman did not ask for options? Or that the Civil Service did not provide her with them after she asked?

    That it isn't couched in those terms makes me very suspicious of its veracity.
    Yeah, it reeks to me too.

    If no one is willing to go on record it isn't worth wasting time on.



  • Wow. Jess Philips has resigned from front bench.

  • That's a stunner. imho she had the role she really really wanted - domestic violence stuff.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,419
    rcs1000 said:

    BTW, we do all know that small boat crossing have dropped dramatically this year, right?

    At the beginning of the year, Ms Braverman warned that 85,000 people might come by boats this year, roughly double the number in 2022.

    As of 11 November, we're at 27,314. So, instead of doubling this year, we're going to be down around about 40%.

    Why?

    Partly because the French have been a bit more helpful, and partly because we now do a much better job of returning Albanians. Ms Bravermam should be shouting from the rafters about how she's dramatically cut the number of boat arrivals, But that doesn't fit her narrative.

    Nothing at all to do with the weather affecting crossings then...
  • R falls

    Covid is over.
    R is also be anyone from Merseyside.

    We're going round R Mike's ...

    R Robbie is doing well ..
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Deputy Chairman of the COnserviative Party calls for the law to be broken. Has to be sacked, surely?

    image
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,152

    rcs1000 said:

    BTW, we do all know that small boat crossing have dropped dramatically this year, right?

    At the beginning of the year, Ms Braverman warned that 85,000 people might come by boats this year, roughly double the number in 2022.

    As of 11 November, we're at 27,314. So, instead of doubling this year, we're going to be down around about 40%.

    Why?

    Partly because the French have been a bit more helpful, and partly because we now do a much better job of returning Albanians. Ms Bravermam should be shouting from the rafters about how she's dramatically cut the number of boat arrivals, But that doesn't fit her narrative.

    Nothing at all to do with the weather affecting crossings then...
    They were down 28% in the first half of the year, so sure weather accelerated the decline in the second half of the year. But crossings were down even before then.

  • Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    3m
    Looks like 56 Labour MPs voted for the amendment

    A quarter of the party!
  • Jess Phillips has resigned as a shadow home office minister after backing a ceasefire in Gaza, saying she must vote with “my constituents, my head and my heart”.

    She wrote to Sir Keir Starmer, in a letter published on Twitter: “It is with a heavy heart that I will be leaving my post in the Shadow Home Office team.”

    Telegrap blog
  • nico679 said:

    Jess Phillips is a loss to the Labour front bench . What’s clear so far from the resignations is the letters have been very collegiate and there’s no animosity against the Leadership .

    I don't get it. She was doing Serious Work on domestic abuse, and resigns over this.
  • HYUFD said:

    C of E Synod votes for motion of Living in Love and Faith motion and blessing services for homosexual couples married in English law. All 3 houses in favour, albeit narrowly in house of laity
    https://x.com/ProfPMiddleton/status/1724820053357445593?s=20
    https://x.com/synod/status/1724742377657565615?s=20

    House of Gaiety!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,632


    Saul Staniforth
    @SaulStaniforth
    ·
    1m
    Replying to
    @SaulStaniforth
    A list of the Labour MP's who voted for a ceasefire

    https://twitter.com/SaulStaniforth/status/1724877780662260172

    A mix of Corbynites, Muslims, and MPs with significantly Muslim constituencies in the main.

    A totally pointless vote. It's not as if the ammendment would pass or that either combatant would listen.
  • Fresh Labour meltdown as Keir Starmer suffers a huge Commons revolt with slew of shadow ministers quitting and dozens of MPs defying him by voting for a Gaza ceasefire

    Mail
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,624

    nico679 said:

    Jess Phillips is a loss to the Labour front bench . What’s clear so far from the resignations is the letters have been very collegiate and there’s no animosity against the Leadership .

    I don't get it. She was doing Serious Work on domestic abuse, and resigns over this.
    Look at the demographics of her constituency.
  • Wow. Jess Philips has resigned from front bench.

    That's quite a surprise.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BTW, we do all know that small boat crossing have dropped dramatically this year, right?

    At the beginning of the year, Ms Braverman warned that 85,000 people might come by boats this year, roughly double the number in 2022.

    As of 11 November, we're at 27,314. So, instead of doubling this year, we're going to be down around about 40%.

    Why?

    Partly because the French have been a bit more helpful, and partly because we now do a much better job of returning Albanians. Ms Bravermam should be shouting from the rafters about how she's dramatically cut the number of boat arrivals, But that doesn't fit her narrative.

    How can Albania - a country which is neither large, next door to us, or at war - have been responsible for quite so many migrants?
    Because criminal gangs are well tapped in there and they found a loophole in the small print to enable economic migrants to claim asylum en masse.
    Give people a choice between people who appear to support the 2020 mobs and *someone else*, and it is no particular surprise some of them go with the someone else, even when he is a known arsehole.
  • Fresh Labour meltdown as Keir Starmer suffers a huge Commons revolt with slew of shadow ministers quitting and dozens of MPs defying him by voting for a Gaza ceasefire

    Mail

    Looks like both main parties are "sub-optimal" to put it mildly!
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BTW, we do all know that small boat crossing have dropped dramatically this year, right?

    At the beginning of the year, Ms Braverman warned that 85,000 people might come by boats this year, roughly double the number in 2022.

    As of 11 November, we're at 27,314. So, instead of doubling this year, we're going to be down around about 40%.

    Why?

    Partly because the French have been a bit more helpful, and partly because we now do a much better job of returning Albanians. Ms Bravermam should be shouting from the rafters about how she's dramatically cut the number of boat arrivals, But that doesn't fit her narrative.

    How can Albania - a country which is neither large, next door to us, or at war - have been responsible for quite so many migrants?
    Because criminal gangs are well tapped in there and they found a loophole in the small print to enable economic migrants to claim asylum en masse.
    Give people a choice between people who appear to support the 2020 mobs and *someone else*, and it is no particular surprise some of them go with the someone else, even when he is a known arsehole.
    Sorry - that should have been a reply to a totally different post!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    Foxy said:


    Saul Staniforth
    @SaulStaniforth
    ·
    1m
    Replying to
    @SaulStaniforth
    A list of the Labour MP's who voted for a ceasefire

    https://twitter.com/SaulStaniforth/status/1724877780662260172

    A mix of Corbynites, Muslims, and MPs with significantly Muslim constituencies in the main.

    A totally pointless vote. It's not as if the ammendment would pass or that either combatant would listen.
    My local MP in the list, again no surprise with a local by-election tomorrow in Newham.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    nico679 said:

    Jess Phillips is a loss to the Labour front bench . What’s clear so far from the resignations is the letters have been very collegiate and there’s no animosity against the Leadership .

    I don't get it. She was doing Serious Work on domestic abuse, and resigns over this.
    Look at the demographics of her constituency.
    Exactly. It's a Heathrow expansion thing.
  • nico679 said:

    Jess Phillips is a loss to the Labour front bench . What’s clear so far from the resignations is the letters have been very collegiate and there’s no animosity against the Leadership .

    I don't get it. She was doing Serious Work on domestic abuse, and resigns over this.
    35% muslim in her patch.

  • kinabalu said:

    nico679 said:

    Jess Phillips is a loss to the Labour front bench . What’s clear so far from the resignations is the letters have been very collegiate and there’s no animosity against the Leadership .

    I don't get it. She was doing Serious Work on domestic abuse, and resigns over this.
    Look at the demographics of her constituency.
    Exactly. It's a Heathrow expansion thing.
    Eh?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,632

    Fresh Labour meltdown as Keir Starmer suffers a huge Commons revolt with slew of shadow ministers quitting and dozens of MPs defying him by voting for a Gaza ceasefire

    Mail

    Considering the support for the SNP amendment includes 20% of Tory voters, and only 18% of Tory voters support the government's position, it is hard to see this as a useful wedge issue for the Tories.


  • Wow. Jess Philips has resigned from front bench.

    That's quite a surprise.
    I agree.

    I had assumed she so so so wanted to do her brief (and fair play to her it is his area).
  • stodge said:

    Foxy said:


    Saul Staniforth
    @SaulStaniforth
    ·
    1m
    Replying to
    @SaulStaniforth
    A list of the Labour MP's who voted for a ceasefire

    https://twitter.com/SaulStaniforth/status/1724877780662260172

    A mix of Corbynites, Muslims, and MPs with significantly Muslim constituencies in the main.

    A totally pointless vote. It's not as if the ammendment would pass or that either combatant would listen.
    My local MP in the list, again no surprise with a local by-election tomorrow in Newham.
    A lot of those MPs did what they had to do. Either for conscience or local representation. Phillips will be back, and probably quite soon. (If not Suella soon).

    Starmer did what he had to do.

    Arguably, the SNP did what they had to do- namely shit-stir.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,419
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Steven Edginton
    @StevenEdginton
    💥Anonymous Home Office official explains why no matter who is Home Secretary, Britain's borders will remain wide open:

    "Despite our change in boss, when it comes to controlling Britain’s borders nothing will change. I know this because I have worked for some time as a civil servant on immigration policy, and – in my experience – no priority is further from the Home Office in 2023 than stopping the boats or cutting net migration."

    https://twitter.com/StevenEdginton/status/1724762963213480011

    In fact, I suspect its quite the opposite.
    I read the full Twitter piece, and I'm afraid I didn't believe it. If it wasn't anonymous, if a high level Home Office official quit, and went on the record, then that would be different, but the piece felt forced.

    For a start, I wouldn't expect Home Office staff to go into meetings and pose the question "how do we cut immigration?", I would expect them to respond to requests for various options that are asked for by their political masters.

    So: is said source saying that Ms Braverman did not ask for options? Or that the Civil Service did not provide her with them after she asked?

    That it isn't couched in those terms makes me very suspicious of its veracity.
    What is it about the account that you are calling a falsehood? We know that civil service productivity has fallen by 7.5%. You yourself are complaining about our slow rate of deciding asylum cases and sending unsuccessful claimants back. All this account does is lend colour to the facts we already know and which you have highlighted. Of course there is personal opinion being expressed (evidently the writer has a deplorable lack of reverence for microagression training), but that aside, I'm not sure what here is an active falsehood, or what the motivation for such a falsehood would even be. As for the anonymity, perhaps this person wishes to speak out but also needs an income? There are plenty of non-anonymous civil servants offering a similar portrayal.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    A

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BTW, we do all know that small boat crossing have dropped dramatically this year, right?

    At the beginning of the year, Ms Braverman warned that 85,000 people might come by boats this year, roughly double the number in 2022.

    As of 11 November, we're at 27,314. So, instead of doubling this year, we're going to be down around about 40%.

    Why?

    Partly because the French have been a bit more helpful, and partly because we now do a much better job of returning Albanians. Ms Bravermam should be shouting from the rafters about how she's dramatically cut the number of boat arrivals, But that doesn't fit her narrative.

    How can Albania - a country which is neither large, next door to us, or at war - have been responsible for quite so many migrants?
    Because criminal gangs are well tapped in there and they found a loophole in the small print to enable economic migrants to claim asylum en masse.
    Anyone can *claim* asylum.

    The key is to ensure that (a) people are processed and deported rapidly if asylum is rejected, and (b) that they do not disappear into the local informal economy along the way.

    The UK is pretty poor on both of these. The Dutch have a dashboard showing average asylum processing times and for those coming from EU / EEA / Switzerland / UK, then 96% are processed within 11 weeks.

    Why can't we do similarly? It would almost certainly save us an absolute fortune, and discourage those whose claims are not likely to be accepted.

    And we also do really poorly on people disappearing. Norway estimates they have only 300 failed asylum seekers in the whole country! Now, sure, they're smaller than us. So, scaled upwards that would be maybe 6,000. But 6,000 would still be absolute peanuts compared to now.
    Upscaled pro rata by population it would be about 3,700 in the UK.

    This is what completely baffles me. Rather than invest £140m+ in Rwanda, why not just make the f*cking asylum system work? Buy in the Norwegian or Dutch teams to show us how to do it properly, if necessary.
    The stuff quoted up thread about nothing being done in the Home Office.

    Strip out the partisan stuff - 6 months into the Starmer gov the Labourites here will be complaining of the same things.

    Why do I say that? Read the memoirs of Home Secs going back to the 1960s….
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906

    Upscaled pro rata by population it would be about 3,700 in the UK.

    This is what completely baffles me. Rather than invest £140m+ in Rwanda, why not just make the f*cking asylum system work? Buy in the Norwegian or Dutch teams to show us how to do it properly, if necessary.

    As I was saying yesterday we focus on inputs (numbers arriving on the beaches), not the outputs (thousands dumped back over the Channel). It's another lets do everything back-to-front bit of government.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    Foxy said:


    Saul Staniforth
    @SaulStaniforth
    ·
    1m
    Replying to
    @SaulStaniforth
    A list of the Labour MP's who voted for a ceasefire

    https://twitter.com/SaulStaniforth/status/1724877780662260172

    A mix of Corbynites, Muslims, and MPs with significantly Muslim constituencies in the main.

    A totally pointless vote. It's not as if the ammendment would pass or that either combatant would listen.
    Given that, why whip it (for Labour)? Or why not arrange for any front bench members in tricky positions to have urgent appointments elsewhere? It's a bit of a Labour story now and will likely alienate as many as it gains support from.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,552
    B'ham Yardley is a seat the LDs ought to be targetting again if they weren't marooned on about 10% in the polls.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275

    Fresh Labour meltdown as Keir Starmer suffers a huge Commons revolt with slew of shadow ministers quitting and dozens of MPs defying him by voting for a Gaza ceasefire

    Mail

    Bless the Daily Hate doing its best to deflect from the gimps loss today . Perhaps they just saw a new poll out putting the Tories on 19% .
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BTW, we do all know that small boat crossing have dropped dramatically this year, right?

    At the beginning of the year, Ms Braverman warned that 85,000 people might come by boats this year, roughly double the number in 2022.

    As of 11 November, we're at 27,314. So, instead of doubling this year, we're going to be down around about 40%.

    Why?

    Partly because the French have been a bit more helpful, and partly because we now do a much better job of returning Albanians. Ms Bravermam should be shouting from the rafters about how she's dramatically cut the number of boat arrivals, But that doesn't fit her narrative.

    How can Albania - a country which is neither large, next door to us, or at war - have been responsible for quite so many migrants?
    Because criminal gangs are well tapped in there and they found a loophole in the small print to enable economic migrants to claim asylum en masse.
    Anyone can *claim* asylum.

    The key is to ensure that (a) people are processed and deported rapidly if asylum is rejected, and (b) that they do not disappear into the local informal economy along the way.

    The UK is pretty poor on both of these. The Dutch have a dashboard showing average asylum processing times and for those coming from EU / EEA / Switzerland / UK, then 96% are processed within 11 weeks.

    Why can't we do similarly? It would almost certainly save us an absolute fortune, and discourage those whose claims are not likely to be accepted.

    And we also do really poorly on people disappearing. Norway estimates they have only 300 failed asylum seekers in the whole country! Now, sure, they're smaller than us. So, scaled upwards that would be maybe 6,000. But 6,000 would still be absolute peanuts compared to now.
    Upscaled pro rata by population it would be about 3,700 in the UK.

    This is what completely baffles me. Rather than invest £140m+ in Rwanda, why not just make the f*cking asylum system work? Buy in the Norwegian or Dutch teams to show us how to do it properly, if necessary.
    I know Home Sec is a tough gig but this is a total shambles. Cleverly has to go.
  • nico679 said:

    Jess Phillips is a loss to the Labour front bench . What’s clear so far from the resignations is the letters have been very collegiate and there’s no animosity against the Leadership .

    I don't get it. She was doing Serious Work on domestic abuse, and resigns over this.
    35% muslim in her patch.

    What, she's going to lose a seat she won a massive majority in the disaster of 2019, at a forthcoming election where Labour are getting a landslide, is she?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727

    Deputy Chairman of the COnserviative Party calls for the law to be broken. Has to be sacked, surely?

    image

    What's REMIX? A merger of Refuk and Reclaim?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    I suppose Starmer should be thankful the tragic situation in the Middle East didn’t happen a year later . These resignations will all be forgotten by then.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    A

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    BTW, we do all know that small boat crossing have dropped dramatically this year, right?

    At the beginning of the year, Ms Braverman warned that 85,000 people might come by boats this year, roughly double the number in 2022.

    As of 11 November, we're at 27,314. So, instead of doubling this year, we're going to be down around about 40%.

    Why?

    Partly because the French have been a bit more helpful, and partly because we now do a much better job of returning Albanians. Ms Bravermam should be shouting from the rafters about how she's dramatically cut the number of boat arrivals, But that doesn't fit her narrative.

    How can Albania - a country which is neither large, next door to us, or at war - have been responsible for quite so many migrants?
    Because criminal gangs are well tapped in there and they found a loophole in the small print to enable economic migrants to claim asylum en masse.
    Anyone can *claim* asylum.

    The key is to ensure that (a) people are processed and deported rapidly if asylum is rejected, and (b) that they do not disappear into the local informal economy along the way.

    The UK is pretty poor on both of these. The Dutch have a dashboard showing average asylum processing times and for those coming from EU / EEA / Switzerland / UK, then 96% are processed within 11 weeks.

    Why can't we do similarly? It would almost certainly save us an absolute fortune, and discourage those whose claims are not likely to be accepted.

    And we also do really poorly on people disappearing. Norway estimates they have only 300 failed asylum seekers in the whole country! Now, sure, they're smaller than us. So, scaled upwards that would be maybe 6,000. But 6,000 would still be absolute peanuts compared to now.
    Upscaled pro rata by population it would be about 3,700 in the UK.

    This is what completely baffles me. Rather than invest £140m+ in Rwanda, why not just make the f*cking asylum system work? Buy in the Norwegian or Dutch teams to show us how to do it properly, if necessary.
    The stuff quoted up thread about nothing being done in the Home Office.

    Strip out the partisan stuff - 6 months into the Starmer gov the Labourites here will be complaining of the same things.

    Why do I say that? Read the memoirs of Home Secs going back to the 1960s….
    You may well be right... but I can't wait to find out.
  • Andy_JS said:

    B'ham Yardley is a seat the LDs ought to be targetting again if they weren't marooned on about 10% in the polls.

    Why the hell would the Lib Dems be targeting Labour held seats in 2024? Is it on the basis they picked up so many Labour seats in 1997?
  • NEW THREAD

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ...

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:


    Saul Staniforth
    @SaulStaniforth
    ·
    1m
    Replying to
    @SaulStaniforth
    A list of the Labour MP's who voted for a ceasefire

    https://twitter.com/SaulStaniforth/status/1724877780662260172

    A mix of Corbynites, Muslims, and MPs with significantly Muslim constituencies in the main.

    A totally pointless vote. It's not as if the ammendment would pass or that either combatant would listen.
    My local MP in the list, again no surprise with a local by-election tomorrow in Newham.
    A lot of those MPs did what they had to do. Either for conscience or local representation. Phillips will be back, and probably quite soon. (If not Suella soon).

    Starmer did what he had to do.

    Arguably, the SNP did what they had to do- namely shit-stir.

    Fantastic politics by the SNP. A clever wedge issue to send their main foe into disarray.

    What exactly, in the grand scheme of things, did this achieve for Gaza? Bibi couldn't give a monkeys that Jess Phillips resigned.

    Rishi on the other hand is laughing his little **** off.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,632

    nico679 said:

    Jess Phillips is a loss to the Labour front bench . What’s clear so far from the resignations is the letters have been very collegiate and there’s no animosity against the Leadership .

    I don't get it. She was doing Serious Work on domestic abuse, and resigns over this.
    35% muslim in her patch.

    What, she's going to lose a seat she won a massive majority in the disaster of 2019, at a forthcoming election where Labour are getting a landslide, is she?
    Almost certainly not, but between conscience and constituents pressure may be too much to ignore.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,998
    Well, the abuse of Israelis on October 7th wasn't "domestic", so perhaps Jess Philips feels that isn't her department. (I would disagree with her, since I think Hamas is now abusing Gazans by using them as human shields.)
  • Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    Jess Phillips is a loss to the Labour front bench . What’s clear so far from the resignations is the letters have been very collegiate and there’s no animosity against the Leadership .

    I don't get it. She was doing Serious Work on domestic abuse, and resigns over this.
    35% muslim in her patch.

    What, she's going to lose a seat she won a massive majority in the disaster of 2019, at a forthcoming election where Labour are getting a landslide, is she?
    Almost certainly not, but between conscience and constituents pressure may be too much to ignore.
    Yes. What's the prospect of achieving real things on tackling domestic violence against the desire to make a meaningless gesture coupled with the risk of some rude emails?

    I can totally see why she caved in the face of that irresistible pressure.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,783

    Wow. Jess Philips has resigned from front bench.

    All I can think is "Wow! .. who is Jess Philips?".
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993
    OT, it’s surprising that the Israel v Switzerland Euro 24 qualifier is being played in Hungary, and even more so in Orban’s favoured stadium across the road from his holiday home.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pancho_Aréna
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    kinabalu said:

    nico679 said:

    Jess Phillips is a loss to the Labour front bench . What’s clear so far from the resignations is the letters have been very collegiate and there’s no animosity against the Leadership .

    I don't get it. She was doing Serious Work on domestic abuse, and resigns over this.
    Look at the demographics of her constituency.
    Exactly. It's a Heathrow expansion thing.
    Eh?
    MPs voting in accordance with constituency views. Like those in West London against Heathrow expansion.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,145
    edited November 2023
    darkage said:

    MattW said:

    Have we done how far Trump has now gone in his language? This 2 days ago:

    "Vermin"

    Marxists etc has been applied by him to Judges, Court Officials etc involved in his prosecutions.

    Separately he has laid out his ideas about going after officials he does not like, political opponents and many more using the organs of the State directed using the executive powers of the Presidency.

    It is pretty terrifying etc but I would suggest that, in the very grand scheme of things, this is best interpreted as a reaction to the cultural power of the left. It was always going to lead to something like this.
    "The left".

    I've always understood that the USA political spectrum comprised Rag, Tag, Bobtail, Centre-Right, and Further Right.

    So does the left actually have much cultural power? You have Nutty McNutface of Hollywood, but is there much more?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Pro_Rata said:

    IanB2 said:

    The government has put up some junior nobody up to respond to this debate (not particularly effectively), which seems odd?

    BTW, thinking about a related topic, who is the most senior FO minister in the Commons now, and are they likely to get a much higher profile than their job title would suggest?
    Andrew Mitchell is already lined up for the task. Effectively a semi-promotion for him.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    Jess Phillips is a loss to the Labour front bench . What’s clear so far from the resignations is the letters have been very collegiate and there’s no animosity against the Leadership .

    I don't get it. She was doing Serious Work on domestic abuse, and resigns over this.
    35% muslim in her patch.

    What, she's going to lose a seat she won a massive majority in the disaster of 2019, at a forthcoming election where Labour are getting a landslide, is she?
    Almost certainly not, but between conscience and constituents pressure may be too much to ignore.
    Streeting’s ambition has forced him to remain loyal, but he’s under huge local pressure given the demographics of his seat.
This discussion has been closed.