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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov asked people to predict what the national voting int

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    Socrates said:

    It's also a little embarrassing that the UKIP numbers sum to 101%.

    Just a normal rounding thing, shorely?
    No, because it means they expect near-zero votes (if you are generous with rounding) for the Nationalist and Other parties.
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    He forgot to mention three other possibilities -

    The Trooser, the Turnip, and the Trump.

    If (inshallah) Scotland votes to secede and hence fail alone, UK should have some fun with them over the currency question.

    A key concession Scotland should be forced to make would be to adopt "Donald Where's Yer Troosers?" as the new Scottish national anthem; to make all public sector workers sing "Donald Where's Yer Troosers?" daily at 9am and 5pm; to make Alex Salmond sing "Donald Where's Yer Troosers?" before any public speech; and to put Andy Stewart's face on their banknotes, coins, and indeed in the middle of their "flag".

    Since they've got no negotiating position on this point, they'd have to agree. There's no reason why negotiating currency union need always be stuffy and boring.

    Here are the unforgettable words:

    Well, I just come down from the Isle a Skye
    I'm not very big and I'm awfully shy
    The lasses shout as I go by "Donald, where's your troosers?"

    [Chorus]
    Let the wind blow high
    Let the wind blow low
    Through the streets in a kilt I go
    All the lasses shout hello
    Donald where's yer troosers?

    A lassie took me to the ball
    And it was slippery in the hall
    I was afraid that I would fall
    Cause I was'nae wearin' troosers

    [Chorus]

    To wear the kilt is my delight
    I'm never wrong 'cause I'm always right
    The highlanders would get a fright
    If they saw me wearin' troosers

    [Chorus]

    Well, I was drivin' in my car
    Went downtown to Kenny's bar
    Fifteen scotches, five cigars
    And I left without my troosers

    [Chorus]

    [Chorus]
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited February 2014

    But if that's what voters decide, and if they really want to go back to the bad old days of the UK's decline of the pre-Thatcher years, then, well, that's democracy..

    Socrates point is that - with AV - voters wouldn't be faced with such a choice. They could put UKIP 1st and Conservative 2nd.

    They could vote for what they want and against what they don't.

    Isn't that a better system than forcing them to choose between principles and pragmatism?
    It would be cruel and unusual punishment of PBers to go back over the AV arguments!

    Anyway, that's not on offer; I'm talking about voting with the system we have, not how people might vote under some different system (where quite possibly the parties on offer would be very different).
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    He forgot to mention three other possibilities -

    The Trooser, the Turnip, and the Trump.

    If (inshallah) Scotland votes to secede and hence fail alone, UK should have some fun with them over the currency question.

    A key concession Scotland should be forced to make would be to adopt "Donald Where's Yer Troosers?" as the new Scottish national anthem; to make all public sector workers sing "Donald Where's Yer Troosers?" daily at 9am and 5pm; to make Alex Salmond sing "Donald Where's Yer Troosers?" before any public speech; and to put Andy Stewart's face on their banknotes, coins, and indeed in the middle of their "flag".

    Since they've got no negotiating position on this point, they'd have to agree. There's no reason why negotiating currency union need always be stuffy and boring.

    Here are the unforgettable words:

    Well, I just come down from the Isle a Skye
    I'm not very big and I'm awfully shy
    The lasses shout as I go by "Donald, where's your troosers?"

    [Chorus]
    Let the wind blow high
    Let the wind blow low
    Through the streets in a kilt I go
    All the lasses shout hello
    Donald where's yer troosers?

    A lassie took me to the ball
    And it was slippery in the hall
    I was afraid that I would fall
    Cause I was'nae wearin' troosers

    [Chorus]

    To wear the kilt is my delight
    I'm never wrong 'cause I'm always right
    The highlanders would get a fright
    If they saw me wearin' troosers

    [Chorus]

    Well, I was drivin' in my car
    Went downtown to Kenny's bar
    Fifteen scotches, five cigars
    And I left without my troosers

    [Chorus]

    [Chorus]
    And yet you're old enough to have already voted in an election.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,052
    So everyone is predicting a Lib Dem surge in time for the GE. Even Ukip voters have them up 3%. Lib Dem supporters seem more optimistic than Tory or Labour, expecting their vote share to rise a full 9%. Or is everyone just unaware of how badly the Lib Dems have been polling?
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    Neil said:

    I have the 'luxury' of being in a seat where the vote is rather simple: vote Conservative or vote for someone with no hope of beating Ed Balls.

    You're going to have to explain the difference to me.
    Arf, Arf, and thrice Arf.

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    But if that's what voters decide, and if they really want to go back to the bad old days of the UK's decline of the pre-Thatcher years, then, well, that's democracy..

    Socrates point is that - with AV - voters wouldn't be faced with such a choice. They could put UKIP 1st and Conservative 2nd.

    They could vote for what they want and against what they don't.

    Isn't that a better system than forcing them to choose between principles and pragmatism?
    It would be cruel and unusual punishment of PBers to go back over the AV arguments!

    Anyway, that's not on offer; I'm talking about voting with the system we have, not how people might vote under some different system (where quite possibly the parties on offer would be very different).
    It's the voting system that you campaigned for in that referendum that will give you Miliband as PM.

    That's the pragmatic choice you made.

    Well, it was your choice, but don't think those of us who argued otherwise will let you forget it.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @foxinsoxuk

    'The Danish law seems to be anti-muslim rather than pro-animal judging by the poor welfare standards of Danish farmers.'

    Is the Swedish law banning halal slaughter also anti-muslim or just anti animal cruelty?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,927

    Mr. F, I'd say Miliband is significantly worse. That's not to say Cameron's an Aurelian or Trajan, just that the alternative is an Arcadius or Honorius. Better a mediocre leader than an abysmal one.

    Of course, I have the 'luxury' of being in a seat where the vote is rather simple: vote Conservative or vote for someone with no hope of beating Ed Balls.

    Milliband is on a par with Honorius or Arcadius (or Francois Hollande). Cameron is on a par with Aspramites the Eunuch.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    Thanks to everyone's who replied t my post on the Ukraine.

    I don't normally watch Sky News, but I had it on during a quick lunchbreak (i.e. going to the kitchen to make a sandwich), and they had a brilliant explanation of the various rifts and fissures that are causing the problems in the Ukraine.

    It topped anything I've ever seen on the BBC about it.

    And the person (Tim someone-or-other) kept on saying that it was more complex than he was drawing, but that it was a broad-brush.

    It seemed fairly impressive compared to Auntie's uninformative coverage.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,256
    edited February 2014
    Neil said:

    He forgot to mention three other possibilities -

    The Trooser, the Turnip, and the Trump.

    If (inshallah) Scotland votes to secede and hence fail alone, UK should have some fun with them over the currency question.

    A key concession Scotland should be forced to make would be to adopt "Donald Where's Yer Troosers?" as the new Scottish national anthem; to make all public sector workers sing "Donald Where's Yer Troosers?" daily at 9am and 5pm; to make Alex Salmond sing "Donald Where's Yer Troosers?" before any public speech; and to put Andy Stewart's face on their banknotes, coins, and indeed in the middle of their "flag".

    Since they've got no negotiating position on this point, they'd have to agree. There's no reason why negotiating currency union need always be stuffy and boring.

    Here are the unforgettable words:

    Well, I just come down from the Isle a Skye
    I'm not very big and I'm awfully shy
    The lasses shout as I go by "Donald, where's your troosers?"

    [Chorus]
    Let the wind blow high
    Let the wind blow low
    Through the streets in a kilt I go
    All the lasses shout hello
    Donald where's yer troosers?

    A lassie took me to the ball
    And it was slippery in the hall
    I was afraid that I would fall
    Cause I was'nae wearin' troosers

    [Chorus]

    To wear the kilt is my delight
    I'm never wrong 'cause I'm always right
    The highlanders would get a fright
    If they saw me wearin' troosers

    [Chorus]

    Well, I was drivin' in my car
    Went downtown to Kenny's bar
    Fifteen scotches, five cigars
    And I left without my troosers

    [Chorus]

    [Chorus]
    And yet you're old enough to have already voted in an election.
    I would imagine inclining towards this old.

    'The sixth age shifts
    Into the lean and slipper'd pantaloon,
    With spectacles on nose, and pouch on side,
    His youthful hose well sav'd, a world too wide,
    For his shrunk shank, and his big manly voice,
    Turning again towards childish treble, pipes
    And whistles in his sound. Last scene of all,
    That ends this strange eventful history,
    Is second childishness and mere oblivion,
    Sans teeth, sans eyes, sans taste, sans everything.'

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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,893
    Neil said:

    He forgot to mention three other possibilities -

    The Trooser, the Turnip, and the Trump.

    If (inshallah) Scotland votes to secede and hence fail alone, UK should have some fun with them over the currency question.

    A key concession Scotland should be forced to make would be to adopt "Donald Where's Yer Troosers?" as the new Scottish national anthem; to make all public sector workers sing "Donald Where's Yer Troosers?" daily at 9am and 5pm; to make Alex Salmond sing "Donald Where's Yer Troosers?" before any public speech; and to put Andy Stewart's face on their banknotes, coins, and indeed in the middle of their "flag".

    Since they've got no negotiating position on this point, they'd have to agree. There's no reason why negotiating currency union need always be stuffy and boring.

    Here are the unforgettable words:

    Well, I just come down from the Isle a Skye
    I'm not very big and I'm awfully shy
    The lasses shout as I go by "Donald, where's your troosers?"

    [Chorus]
    Let the wind blow high
    Let the wind blow low
    Through the streets in a kilt I go
    All the lasses shout hello
    Donald where's yer troosers?

    A lassie took me to the ball
    And it was slippery in the hall
    I was afraid that I would fall
    Cause I was'nae wearin' troosers

    [Chorus]

    To wear the kilt is my delight
    I'm never wrong 'cause I'm always right
    The highlanders would get a fright
    If they saw me wearin' troosers

    [Chorus]

    Well, I was drivin' in my car
    Went downtown to Kenny's bar
    Fifteen scotches, five cigars
    And I left without my troosers

    [Chorus]

    [Chorus]
    And yet you're old enough to have already voted in an election.
    How do we know?

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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    The Danish law seems to be anti-muslim rather than pro-animal judging by the poor welfare standards of Danish farmers.

    Is NPXMP around to comment?

    Pulpstar said:

    john_zims said:

    @NickPalmer

    'Fortunately, the badgers have a substantial fifth column, in the form of the majority of the population who disagree with exterminating them for what are ultimately commercial reasons.'

    What progress are you making on the cruelty to animals caused by halal slaughter,which is also only for commercial reasons?

    Are you lobbying for a ban as in Denmark ?.

    Denmark bans kosher and halal slaughter as minister says 'animal rights come before religion'
    The Independent ‎- by Adam Withnall ‎- 1 hour ago
    Denmark's government has brought in a ban on the religious slaughter of animals for the production of halal and kosher meat, after years of ...

    Not sure about Denmark when it comes to animal welfare...

    One thing I always try and buy is British bacon, our pigs have the best living conditions before slaughter in Europe, probably in the world.

    https://www.ciwf.org.uk/what_we_do/pigs/state_of_eu_pigs/undercover_investigation/denmark/default.aspx

    I'd like to see No (or ineffective) environmental enrichment at 0% for Britain but 36% is better than all the other EU countries CIWF looked at.
    Animal welfare is one of those issues which seem to expose so much of the "We can't do anything because of European rules" statements we hear too often from our politicians. Our pig farmers have to comply with a set of rules that do not apply in either Denmark or Holland and hence face higher costs. So it seems it is entirely possible for the UK to implement its own standards when it wants to.

    Unfortunately, our supermarkets are entirely free to import pork that has been raised, transported and slaughtered under standards which we as a nation are not prepared to tolerate.

    It is a wholly bizarre, indeed schizophrenic, situation. We hurt our own producers in the name of animal welfare but let their foreign competitors off with a free pass.
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    It's the voting system that you campaigned for in that referendum that will give you Miliband as PM.

    I don't know how you come to come to that conclusion. Equally AV might have produced a Miliband premiership based on second prefs of LibDems and Greens. Who knows?
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    Mr. Jessop, Tim Marshall is a top journalist.

    Mr. F, must confess I'm unfamiliar with Aspramites the Eunuch. Still, a political leader without Balls is no bad thing.
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    @SeanF

    Most kippers see Ed as an opponent, Dave as an enemy
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    There is no age barrier to finding Scots nationalism ludicrous.
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    Sean_F said:

    Mr. F, I'd say Miliband is significantly worse. That's not to say Cameron's an Aurelian or Trajan, just that the alternative is an Arcadius or Honorius. Better a mediocre leader than an abysmal one.

    Of course, I have the 'luxury' of being in a seat where the vote is rather simple: vote Conservative or vote for someone with no hope of beating Ed Balls.

    Milliband is on a par with Honorius or Arcadius (or Francois Hollande). Cameron is on a par with Aspramites the Eunuch.
    No, Cameron is Xerxes I, George Osborne as Artabanus with Nick Clegg as Aspramites the Eunuch.

    Obviously I'm hoping Ed Miliband ends up playing the role of King Leonidas to Dave's Xerxes
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,893
    edited February 2014


    [edited]

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    Mr. Jessop, Tim Marshall is a top journalist.

    Mr. F, must confess I'm unfamiliar with Aspramites the Eunuch. Still, a political leader without Balls is no bad thing.

    I guess I have to fill another gap in your knowledge when it comes to history from any era.

    Xerxes I was assassinated by his right hand man, Artabanus, who was assisted by Aspramites the Eunuch.

    As you know, the greatest Military strategists always end up getting betrayed and killed by those whom they considered to be friends.
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    Mr. Eagles, you appear to be considering a man with an overwhelming advantage in resources yet who lost to be a great military strategist.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,893
    Interesting and a good show when they have so much competition e.g. from Orkney. Though I'd want to go in May/June or whenever the machair [coastal grassland of mixed sand and peat] is in full bloom.

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    There is no age barrier to finding Scots nationalism ludicrous.

    Bazinga!

    Not.

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    New independent analysis by Jefferies investment bank shows that Scottish bond yields would jump five percentage points if Mr Salmond walked away from the country's debt obligations after independence.

    The pain would be passed on to Scottish homeowners who would pay £5,200 more every year on their mortgages, Mr Alexander said, adding that this proved Mr Salmond would never carry out the threat.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10648683/Alex-Salmonds-debt-threat-would-cost-Scots-5200-a-year.html
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    As you know, the greatest Military strategists always end up getting betrayed and killed by those whom they considered to be friends.

    Apart from the doubtful case of Alexander I can't think of any example of this. Hannibal? Scipio? Frederick the Great? Napoleon?

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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,893

    Sean_F said:

    Mr. F, I'd say Miliband is significantly worse. That's not to say Cameron's an Aurelian or Trajan, just that the alternative is an Arcadius or Honorius. Better a mediocre leader than an abysmal one.

    Of course, I have the 'luxury' of being in a seat where the vote is rather simple: vote Conservative or vote for someone with no hope of beating Ed Balls.

    Milliband is on a par with Honorius or Arcadius (or Francois Hollande). Cameron is on a par with Aspramites the Eunuch.
    No, Cameron is Xerxes I, George Osborne as Artabanus with Nick Clegg as Aspramites the Eunuch.

    Obviously I'm hoping Ed Miliband ends up playing the role of King Leonidas to Dave's Xerxes
    Surely that role falls to Mr Salmond, with Mr Miliband as the King of, say, Lycia. Especially when the last week has seen Mr Cameron sending his satraps forth.

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    As you know, the greatest Military strategists always end up getting betrayed and killed by those whom they considered to be friends.

    Apart from the doubtful case of Alexander I can't think of any example of this. Hannibal? Scipio? Frederick the Great? Napoleon?

    Caesar and Thatcher to name but two
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    Carnyx said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mr. F, I'd say Miliband is significantly worse. That's not to say Cameron's an Aurelian or Trajan, just that the alternative is an Arcadius or Honorius. Better a mediocre leader than an abysmal one.

    Of course, I have the 'luxury' of being in a seat where the vote is rather simple: vote Conservative or vote for someone with no hope of beating Ed Balls.

    Milliband is on a par with Honorius or Arcadius (or Francois Hollande). Cameron is on a par with Aspramites the Eunuch.
    No, Cameron is Xerxes I, George Osborne as Artabanus with Nick Clegg as Aspramites the Eunuch.

    Obviously I'm hoping Ed Miliband ends up playing the role of King Leonidas to Dave's Xerxes
    Surely that role falls to Mr Salmond, with Mr Miliband as the King of, say, Lycia. Especially when the last week has seen Mr Cameron sending his satraps forth.

    In my experience, when I compare Alex Salmond to anyone from history, I manage to upset at least one person.
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351

    JB,

    "There is no age barrier to finding Scots nationalism ludicrous."

    There are a lot of committed people on PB, and I sometimes think I have an advantage in being a "Vicky Pollard" type ... whatever.

    On the Scottish referendum, I'm comfortable with what they decide but I understand the passion this invokes. On the wider politics, Cameron will do what he thinks will get him re-elected, so he's unlikely to be too harmful. And though Ed has a few principles, he'll demote them if they interfere with his ambitions.

    What's the worst that Ed can do? Spend too much and the markets will force him back. He's a natural busybody and will, no doubt, bring in loads of new laws to provide quotas for all and everything. But I'm retired and much of this will impact on working life, so it will wash over me.

    Selfishly, it will make little difference. Old gits remain immune.

    But for some sections, it's their future you're dealing with, so I don't deliberately provoke them. Well, unless voting Ukip for the first time in May is provocation.
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    Mr. Eagles, you appear to be considering a man with an overwhelming advantage in resources yet who lost to be a great military strategist.

    He won the battle of Thermoplyae.

    They've made one movie about his brilliance, and a second one is out shortly.

    How many movies have they made about the brilliance of Hannibal? (Note, the A-Team movie doesn't count)
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    Carnyx said:

    Interesting and a good show when they have so much competition e.g. from Orkney. Though I'd want to go in May/June or whenever the machair [coastal grassland of mixed sand and peat] is in full bloom.

    I know the Scottish coast very well, but I've done only a handful of the islands. Some of my paternal distant relatives come from the Shetlands, and so does a mate, but I've never got over there.

    Still, I doubt any of the islands could compete in my affection with the northwest of the mainland. I love it.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453


    In my experience, when I compare Alex Salmond to anyone from history, I manage to upset at least one person.

    The most accurate comparison I have seen recently is Ally MacLeod
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Meanwhile, it emerged Mr Van Rompuy was questioned about Mr Barroso’s pessimistic analysis of an independent Scotland joining the EU during a meeting on Tuesday of the European Parliament’s European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) Group.

    He said: “I said exactly the same as President Barroso a few months ago when I was in Madrid and the government of Catalonia decided to launch a campaign on a referendum.

    “I said they would have to become an accession state and apply to join the EU, although I said I doubted if the Catalans would ever vote for independence, although of course it is up to them. By the way, five countries have refused to recognise Kosovo. So I agree with President Barroso.”
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10648683/Alex-Salmonds-debt-threat-would-cost-Scots-5200-a-year.html
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iainmartin1: Stunned. OH in London a woman explains indy ref to small boy: "When Scots bugger off they'll change their name. To Diddymen or something"
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    Scott_P said:


    In my experience, when I compare Alex Salmond to anyone from history, I manage to upset at least one person.

    The most accurate comparison I have seen recently is Ally MacLeod
    That's unfair, Alex Salmond is the man who is on the cusp of ending the most successful/300 year union in a matter of a few months.

    When it comes to comparing him to Scotland managers, he's more Sir Alex Ferguson than Ally MacLeod.
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    Carnyx said:

    Interesting and a good show when they have so much competition e.g. from Orkney. Though I'd want to go in May/June or whenever the machair [coastal grassland of mixed sand and peat] is in full bloom.

    And before the midgies really get going.
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    Scott_P said:

    @iainmartin1: Stunned. OH in London a woman explains indy ref to small boy: "When Scots bugger off they'll change their name. To Diddymen or something"

    I'm in Edinburgh next month, I'm attending a meeting, when the participants include

    Mr Balloch, Mr Cummings and Mr Cockburn.

    I would prefer it if they changed their surnames, I'm not sure how I'm not going to end up burst out laughing in that meeting.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,893

    Carnyx said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mr. F, I'd say Miliband is significantly worse. That's not to say Cameron's an Aurelian or Trajan, just that the alternative is an Arcadius or Honorius. Better a mediocre leader than an abysmal one.

    Of course, I have the 'luxury' of being in a seat where the vote is rather simple: vote Conservative or vote for someone with no hope of beating Ed Balls.

    Milliband is on a par with Honorius or Arcadius (or Francois Hollande). Cameron is on a par with Aspramites the Eunuch.
    No, Cameron is Xerxes I, George Osborne as Artabanus with Nick Clegg as Aspramites the Eunuch.

    Obviously I'm hoping Ed Miliband ends up playing the role of King Leonidas to Dave's Xerxes
    Surely that role falls to Mr Salmond, with Mr Miliband as the King of, say, Lycia. Especially when the last week has seen Mr Cameron sending his satraps forth.

    In my experience, when I compare Alex Salmond to anyone from history, I manage to upset at least one person.
    To be honest, I have to admit that I was taught never to compare a historical figure with a modern situation when writing a historical essay, as that comparison would sooner or later break down and introduce misleading and anachronistic elements - a bit like those books claiming that the telegraph system was the Victorian internet.

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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,893

    Scott_P said:

    @iainmartin1: Stunned. OH in London a woman explains indy ref to small boy: "When Scots bugger off they'll change their name. To Diddymen or something"

    I'm in Edinburgh next month, I'm attending a meeting, when the participants include

    Mr Balloch, Mr Cummings and Mr Cockburn.

    I would prefer it if they changed their surnames, I'm not sure how I'm not going to end up burst out laughing in that meeting.
    I can help you - the last is pronounced Coburn!

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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,893

    Carnyx said:

    Interesting and a good show when they have so much competition e.g. from Orkney. Though I'd want to go in May/June or whenever the machair [coastal grassland of mixed sand and peat] is in full bloom.

    And before the midgies really get going.
    That too - usually the wind keeps them away, but one can't rely on it.

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,989
    Carnyx said:



    I can help you - the last is pronounced Coburn!

    Alright Hyacinth ;-)

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:


    In my experience, when I compare Alex Salmond to anyone from history, I manage to upset at least one person.

    The most accurate comparison I have seen recently is Ally MacLeod
    Hmm

    > Got them to the referendum/wc in some style
    > Campaign involved unflattering match ups with 3rd world countries Peru/Iran vs Kosovo Panama
    > Ultimate humiliating failure - well still TBD.

    No sign of a drugs scandal though.
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    Carnyx said:

    Scott_P said:

    @iainmartin1: Stunned. OH in London a woman explains indy ref to small boy: "When Scots bugger off they'll change their name. To Diddymen or something"

    I'm in Edinburgh next month, I'm attending a meeting, when the participants include

    Mr Balloch, Mr Cummings and Mr Cockburn.

    I would prefer it if they changed their surnames, I'm not sure how I'm not going to end up burst out laughing in that meeting.
    I can help you - the last is pronounced Coburn!

    Thanks, I knew that.
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    Scott_P said:


    In my experience, when I compare Alex Salmond to anyone from history, I manage to upset at least one person.

    The most accurate comparison I have seen recently is Ally MacLeod
    When it comes to comparing him to Scotland managers, he's more Sir Alex Ferguson than Ally MacLeod.
    He'll be like one of them.....which, time will tell......

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Scott_P said:

    @iainmartin1: Stunned. OH in London a woman explains indy ref to small boy: "When Scots bugger off they'll change their name. To Diddymen or something"

    Mr Cockburn.

    .
    Pronounced : "koh - burn "

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    Scott_P said:

    @iainmartin1: Stunned. OH in London a woman explains indy ref to small boy: "When Scots bugger off they'll change their name. To Diddymen or something"

    I'm in Edinburgh next month, I'm attending a meeting, when the participants include

    Mr Balloch, Mr Cummings and Mr Cockburn.

    I would prefer it if they changed their surnames, I'm not sure how I'm not going to end up burst out laughing in that meeting.
    Remember for Cockburn you don't pronounce the 'CK'!

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKYlRybc7Ik
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    Caesar and Thatcher to name but two

    I thought of Caesar after posting. Was he actually any good, or was he basically fighting the French using a Roman army? By analogy, if Brazil beat Scotland at football does that make Brazil's manager a giant?

    Thatcher wasn't a military strategist was she?
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    Carnyx said:

    Scott_P said:

    @iainmartin1: Stunned. OH in London a woman explains indy ref to small boy: "When Scots bugger off they'll change their name. To Diddymen or something"

    I'm in Edinburgh next month, I'm attending a meeting, when the participants include

    Mr Balloch, Mr Cummings and Mr Cockburn.

    I would prefer it if they changed their surnames, I'm not sure how I'm not going to end up burst out laughing in that meeting.
    I can help you - the last is pronounced Coburn!

    Thanks, I knew that.
    A fairly common Guernsey surname is Bougourd....much as one might wish it pronounced boo-gourd.....it rather tends to what one might wish it didn't......

  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322


    Caesar and Thatcher to name but two

    I thought of Caesar after posting. Was he actually any good, or was he basically fighting the French using a Roman army? By analogy, if Brazil beat Scotland at football does that make Brazil's manager a giant?

    Thatcher wasn't a military strategist was she?
    Rome was basically a maritime power before the guy conquered Gaul. He was certainly an impressive general.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Is it even theoretically possible for SNP/PC to get 9% of the national votes unless they achieve super record swings. 9% equates to 2.8 million votes !! Similarly, 7% for Green equates 2.1m votes. Greens may not even get 3% !!
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,256
    edited February 2014
    TSE, YOU DO REALISE IT'S PRONOUNCED...

    Oh.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,893


    Caesar and Thatcher to name but two

    I thought of Caesar after posting. Was he actually any good, or was he basically fighting the French using a Roman army? By analogy, if Brazil beat Scotland at football does that make Brazil's manager a giant?

    Thatcher wasn't a military strategist was she?
    Old Gaius J. C. did write the standard history himself - so who knows? But the Gauls weren't a cakewalk, if the description of the fortress of Alesia is anything like reality. And he did beat other Roman armies, e.g. Pompey at Pharsalus. It was only the Brits [i.e. the Celtic lot at that time] who fended him off, ditto the Germans.

    Mrs T was more very lucky than a great strategist - the Falklands War was a dicey one to put it mildly. But it's the lucky ones who get to win ...

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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Presumably Halal and Kosher food from other parts of the EU will remain on sale in Denmark.

    Personally I also avoid Danish bacon. Apart from the welfare issue, it is usually pumped full of water and tastes of little.

    The Danish law seems to be anti-muslim rather than pro-animal judging by the poor welfare standards of Danish farmers.

    Is NPXMP around to comment?

    Pulpstar said:

    john_zims said:

    @NickPalmer

    'Fortunately, the badgers have a substantial fifth column, in the form of the majority of the population who disagree with exterminating them for what are ultimately commercial reasons.'

    What progress are you making on the cruelty to animals caused by halal slaughter,which is also only for commercial reasons?

    Are you lobbying for a ban as in Denmark ?.

    Denmark bans kosher and halal slaughter as minister says 'animal rights come before religion'
    The Independent ‎- by Adam Withnall ‎- 1 hour ago
    Denmark's government has brought in a ban on the religious slaughter of animals for the production of halal and kosher meat, after years of ...

    Not sure about Denmark when it comes to animal welfare...

    One thing I always try and buy is British bacon, our pigs have the best living conditions before slaughter in Europe, probably in the world.

    https://www.ciwf.org.uk/what_we_do/pigs/state_of_eu_pigs/undercover_investigation/denmark/default.aspx

    I'd like to see No (or ineffective) environmental enrichment at 0% for Britain but 36% is better than all the other EU countries CIWF looked at.
    Animal welfare is one of those issues which seem to expose so much of the "We can't do anything because of European rules" statements we hear too often from our politicians. Our pig farmers have to comply with a set of rules that do not apply in either Denmark or Holland and hence face higher costs. So it seems it is entirely possible for the UK to implement its own standards when it wants to.

    Unfortunately, our supermarkets are entirely free to import pork that has been raised, transported and slaughtered under standards which we as a nation are not prepared to tolerate.

    It is a wholly bizarre, indeed schizophrenic, situation. We hurt our own producers in the name of animal welfare but let their foreign competitors off with a free pass.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,893
    surbiton said:

    Is it even theoretically possible for SNP/PC to get 9% of the national votes unless they achieve super record swings. 9% equates to 2.8 million votes !! Similarly, 7% for Green equates 2.1m votes. Greens may not even get 3% !!

    Remember 'nationa' could mean Scottish & Welsh, or UK, pmts. But anyway Scottish electorate = 4 million, so it's n theory possible, before adding the Welsh. As I don't know the history of voting % in Scottish elections I can't say if it is unprecedented.

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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    It's the voting system that you campaigned for in that referendum that will give you Miliband as PM.

    I don't know how you come to come to that conclusion. Equally AV might have produced a Miliband premiership based on second prefs of LibDems and Greens. Who knows?
    If the Lib Dems had a choice for the GE2015, would they choose FPTP or AV ?
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    Scott_P said:

    @iainmartin1: Stunned. OH in London a woman explains indy ref to small boy: "When Scots bugger off they'll change their name. To Diddymen or something"

    I'm in Edinburgh next month, I'm attending a meeting, when the participants include

    Mr Balloch, Mr Cummings and Mr Cockburn.

    I would prefer it if they changed their surnames, I'm not sure how I'm not going to end up burst out laughing in that meeting.
    Remember for Cockburn you don't pronounce the 'CK'!

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKYlRybc7Ik
    They are just trying to make you look silly - Of course you pronounce Cockburn as its written (with a big emphasis on the first four letters). People of this surname will appreciate you not pretending there is anything wrong with the name
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,139


    I know the Scottish coast very well, but I've done only a handful of the islands. Some of my paternal distant relatives come from the Shetlands, and so does a mate, but I've never got over there.

    Still, I doubt any of the islands could compete in my affection with the northwest of the mainland. I love it.

    Wainwright, who eulogised about his beloved Lake District, still thought the most beautiful place in Britain was Sandwood Bay, just south down the coast a few miles from Cape Wrath.

    There is a place on Mull which eclipses it to my mind - one of the few places I've seen on Earth with a truly gobsmacking view as you turn around through 360 degrees - but it is top three certainly.

    Nothing anywhere else in Britain compares to the west coast of Scotland and the islands off there. I shall be going to Iona in April and Barra in September. Although for Barra, I may have to pull over at Gretna Green to change my Pounds into Thistles.....I expect to get a very good exchange rate.

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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Dr Fox,

    My son lives in Copenhagen. He agrees with your views on Danish bacon; they export the best (!) and leave the Danes with the real rubbish. So if you go to Denmark, you'll need to bring your own supply.
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    WATO - Labour's flagship jobs Guarantee program will run from one year only....
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,139


    I can help you - the last is pronounced Coburn!

    Thanks, I knew that.

    Knowing how it is pronounced still doesn't do away with the need for mind bleach though!


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    MJW said:

    Interesting that the Kippers think that the Tories will still 'win' (albeit with a % of the vote that would make Labour the largest party in seats) even with UKIP on 26% in the polls while most would agree that getting half that in 2015 could result in huge difficulties for the Tories.

    Could mean it's tricky convincing Ukip supporters that a vote for Nigel is a vote for Ed.

    I think this is an important point. I've been struck by the number of people who haven't yet woken up to the fact that Ed Miliband may actually become PM. They look at him, and assume (not unreasonably) that there's no chance of anyone so unsuitable actually winning an election. This may perhaps explain a lot of the self-indulgence of the Kipper tendency and of some Conservative-leaning people who spend their time attacking Cameron rather than Labour.

    The question is: will they wake up as the election nears, or will they have a rude awakening after the election when it's too late?

    I'm probably a natural Tory voter, but won't be voting for them next time as they don't currently represent anything I'd vote for. Propping up house prices with taxpayers money? Failure to regulate the banks? They are also ringfencing stuff that I think needs cutting like pensions and NHS spending.

    They're basically going for the grey NIMBY vote and to hell with the young, which probably makes short term political sense, but long term they are going to struggle.

    They also haven't cut half of the government bloat that they should have done either.

    The idea that you should vote for someone you don't want in case someone even worse gets in is how we ended up being governed so badly in the first place.
    "They're basically going for the grey NIMBY vote and to hell with the young"

    Urrrm, HS2 isn't exactly popular with the NIMBYs, grey or otherwise, and should be of advantage to the young in the future.

    As a matter of interest, what youth-friendly policies would you, as a natural Tory voter, like to see them implement?
    I don't think that you can point to one large infrastructure project to prove anything. We could have rebuilt half the railways in the country with the amount of money thrown at propping up the banks and house prices.

    The planning laws need to be liberalised for those wanting to self build a home. The difficulty in achieving this is reflected in the difference in price between land with and without planning permission.
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    WATO - Labour's flagship jobs Guarantee program will run from one year only....

    which makes it nigh on utterly pointless...
  • Options
    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Scott_P said:

    @iainmartin1: Stunned. OH in London a woman explains indy ref to small boy: "When Scots bugger off they'll change their name. To Diddymen or something"

    I'm in Edinburgh next month, I'm attending a meeting, when the participants include

    Mr Balloch, Mr Cummings and Mr Cockburn.

    I would prefer it if they changed their surnames, I'm not sure how I'm not going to end up burst out laughing in that meeting.
    Remember for Cockburn you don't pronounce the 'CK'!

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKYlRybc7Ik
    They are just trying to make you look silly - Of course you pronounce Cockburn as its written (with a big emphasis on the first four letters). People of this surname will appreciate you not pretending there is anything wrong with the name
    The same is true of the Kochs making a force of Boehner.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    WATO - Labour's flagship jobs Guarantee program will run from one year only....

    That was the lead story - may have changed by 5pm...
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Scott_P

    'The pain would be passed on to Scottish homeowners who would pay £5,200 more every year on their mortgages, Mr Alexander said, adding that this proved Mr Salmond would never carry out the threat.'

    Surely a small price to pay,anyway it will be alright on the night,Salmond says so. .
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    WATO - Labour's flagship jobs Guarantee program will run from one year only....

    which makes it nigh on utterly pointless...
    It was designed as a soundbite to make them appear concerned about the unemployed and get a few favourable headlines. So in that sense it has worked exactly as intended.
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    Look the mods aren't around at the moment, so no discussion of phone hacking, Mike's made it clear, repeat offenders get banned until the conclusion of the trials, he doesn't want any more letters from News International's lawyers
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    john_zims said:

    @Scott_P

    'The pain would be passed on to Scottish homeowners who would pay £5,200 more every year on their mortgages, Mr Alexander said, adding that this proved Mr Salmond would never carry out the threat.'

    Surely a small price to pay,anyway it will be alright on the night,Salmond says so. .

    Bad form from the SNP in threatening to not pay their fair share of debt. Even if they do not go through with the threat ,the threat may make lending more expensive in the future for Scotland
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    CD13 said:



    But for some sections, it's their future you're dealing with, so I don't deliberately provoke them.

    It is exactly typical of the smallness of nats, however, that merely taking the mild mickey out of them is considered provocation worthy of an instant effusion of - admittedly fairly insipid - bile.

    This mentality is of a piece with that poll Hannan blogged about in the DT, in which 70% of Labour voters wanted a 50% top rate tax even if they knew it raised no more money.

    If applied to the votes cast in Scotland in 2010, where 83% of votes were cast for socialist parties, that poll implies a majority of Scots wants the state to deliberately destroy the wealth of others, because that majority envies them.

    So north of our border we have a mentality of malicious envy, a fervent belief that someone somewhere is doing them down, and an essentially unreconstructed 1950s Marxist political alignment. Taken together, these flaws tell me that Scotland is not only unfit to be independent, but also unfit to be in a political union with any western country; including, of course, the one it is presently in.

    Merely twitting nats by reminding them of the career of Andy Stewart strikes me as a pretty restrained approach. But since we are stuck with them for at least the next 50 years or so, perhaps I should back off a bit in the interests of PB harmony.

    So I will say nae muir -- er, sorry, I meant "no more" on this matter. Unless I should burst otherwise.
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    CD13CD13 Posts: 6,351
    Bacon is the best reason for not being a vegetarian, and it reminds me of an old joke. Sorry if you're heard it before.

    A man was driving past a farmyard when he noticed one of the pigs had a wooden leg. Intrigued, the man stopped the car and knocked at the door.

    When the farmer opened it, the man tried to explain his curiosity.

    “Aaah,” the farmerr said. “There’s a good reason for the wooden leg. That pig saved our lives. We were all asleep when the house caught fire. The pig, seeing this, ran up to the door and woke us all up with his grunting. Saved our lives, he did.”


    “But why ... “

    “Because that’s no normal pig, that’s a hero pig. And a pig like that, you don’t eat all at once.”
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    edited February 2014
    Euro prediction by @ PollWatch2014:
    S&D (PES) 221
    EPP 202
    ALDE 64
    G/EFA 44
    ECR 42
    GUE/NGL 56
    EFD 30
    NI 92

    Also, countries by lead party:

    twitter.com/PollWatch2014/status/436125769819885568/photo/1

    Edit to add: Methodology etc:
    http://www.pollwatch2014.eu/pollwatch_blog
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    CD13 said:

    Bacon is the best reason for not being a vegetarian,

    We're not all bad :)
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited February 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    john_zims said:

    @NickPalmer

    'Fortunately, the badgers have a substantial fifth column, in the form of the majority of the population who disagree with exterminating them for what are ultimately commercial reasons.'

    What progress are you making on the cruelty to animals caused by halal slaughter,which is also only for commercial reasons?

    Are you lobbying for a ban as in Denmark ?.

    Denmark bans kosher and halal slaughter as minister says 'animal rights come before religion'
    The Independent ‎- by Adam Withnall ‎- 1 hour ago
    Denmark's government has brought in a ban on the religious slaughter of animals for the production of halal and kosher meat, after years of ...

    "...our pigs have the best living conditions before slaughter in Europe, probably in the world..."

    Quite right, Pulpstar.

    We even allow them to post on poltical blogs.

    They have never had it so good.

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    currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    So we now have an economy with low inflation, record employment, low unemployment and high growth yet Labour are at 40% in the polls?
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    CD13 said:

    Bacon is the best reason for not being a vegetarian,

    We're not all bad :)
    If you want to sound Jamaican when ordering in your local café just ask for a Beer Can sandwich
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    currystar said:

    So we now have an economy with low inflation, record employment, low unemployment and high growth yet Labour are at 40% in the polls?

    Yes - but 15 months and GE campaign to go.

  • Options
    Sunil on Sunday leadership ratings - YouRes poll, fieldwork 18th February 2014:

    Nick Miliband - app. 23, disapp. 56 = -33
    Dave Clegg - app. 34, disapp. 62 = -28
    Ed Cameron - app. 28, disapp. 45 = -17
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    glwglw Posts: 9,554

    WATO - Labour's flagship jobs Guarantee program will run from one year only....

    which makes it nigh on utterly pointless...
    My God, Ed's managed to top the "stop property being marketed overseas" nonsense already, I'm beginning to wonder if he comes up with these daft ideas for a joke. We'll be looking back on the days of Brown with fondness when these idiots are in charge.
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    CD13 said:

    Bacon is the best reason for not being a vegetarian,

    We're not all bad :)
    If you want to sound Jamaican when ordering in your local café just ask for a Beer Can sandwich
    Stop 'Jerk'-ing around :)
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    So we now have an economy with low inflation, record employment, low unemployment and high growth yet Labour are at 40% in the polls?

    Indeed, its worrying for the coalition. Their economic performance seems to have no traction with voters at all.

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    CD13 said:



    But for some sections, it's their future you're dealing with, so I don't deliberately provoke them.

    It is exactly typical of the smallness of nats, however, that merely taking the mild mickey out of them is considered provocation worthy of an instant effusion of - admittedly fairly insipid - bile.

    This mentality is of a piece with that poll Hannan blogged about in the DT, in which 70% of Labour voters wanted a 50% top rate tax even if they knew it raised no more money.

    If applied to the votes cast in Scotland in 2010, where 83% of votes were cast for socialist parties, that poll implies a majority of Scots wants the state to deliberately destroy the wealth of others, because that majority envies them.

    So north of our border we have a mentality of malicious envy, a fervent belief that someone somewhere is doing them down, and an essentially unreconstructed 1950s Marxist political alignment. Taken together, these flaws tell me that Scotland is not only unfit to be independent, but also unfit to be in a political union with any western country; including, of course, the one it is presently in.

    Merely twitting nats by reminding them of the career of Andy Stewart strikes me as a pretty restrained approach. But since we are stuck with them for at least the next 50 years or so, perhaps I should back off a bit in the interests of PB harmony.

    So I will say nae muir -- er, sorry, I meant "no more" on this matter. Unless I should burst otherwise.
    Is there an insect loose in PB? I can hear a high pitched whine.

  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,139


    In my experience, when I compare Alex Salmond to anyone from history, I manage to upset at least one person.

    Alex Salmond?

  • Options

    CD13 said:



    But for some sections, it's their future you're dealing with, so I don't deliberately provoke them.

    It is exactly typical of the smallness of nats, however, that merely taking the mild mickey out of them is considered provocation worthy of an instant effusion of - admittedly fairly insipid - bile.

    This mentality is of a piece with that poll Hannan blogged about in the DT, in which 70% of Labour voters wanted a 50% top rate tax even if they knew it raised no more money.

    If applied to the votes cast in Scotland in 2010, where 83% of votes were cast for socialist parties, that poll implies a majority of Scots wants the state to deliberately destroy the wealth of others, because that majority envies them.

    So north of our border we have a mentality of malicious envy, a fervent belief that someone somewhere is doing them down, and an essentially unreconstructed 1950s Marxist political alignment. Taken together, these flaws tell me that Scotland is not only unfit to be independent, but also unfit to be in a political union with any western country; including, of course, the one it is presently in.

    Merely twitting nats by reminding them of the career of Andy Stewart strikes me as a pretty restrained approach. But since we are stuck with them for at least the next 50 years or so, perhaps I should back off a bit in the interests of PB harmony.

    So I will say nae muir -- er, sorry, I meant "no more" on this matter. Unless I should burst otherwise.
    Is there an insect loose in PB? I can hear a high pitched whine.

    No doubt the chickens will get it.....cluck! cluck!

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    TGOHF said:

    currystar said:

    So we now have an economy with low inflation, record employment, low unemployment and high growth yet Labour are at 40% in the polls?

    Yes - but 15 months and GE campaign to go.

    Wow, are we actually seeing TGOHF predicting Labour on 50% or higher?

    Don't believe it myself though ;^)
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited February 2014

    Look the mods aren't around at the moment, so no discussion of phone hacking, Mike's made it clear, repeat offenders get banned until the conclusion of the trials, he doesn't want any more letters from News International's lawyers

    I know it's not your fault, but God British libel laws are depressing sometimes.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,256
    edited February 2014

    CD13 said:



    But for some sections, it's their future you're dealing with, so I don't deliberately provoke them.

    It is exactly typical of the smallness of nats, however, that merely taking the mild mickey out of them is considered provocation worthy of an instant effusion of - admittedly fairly insipid - bile.

    This mentality is of a piece with that poll Hannan blogged about in the DT, in which 70% of Labour voters wanted a 50% top rate tax even if they knew it raised no more money.

    If applied to the votes cast in Scotland in 2010, where 83% of votes were cast for socialist parties, that poll implies a majority of Scots wants the state to deliberately destroy the wealth of others, because that majority envies them.

    So north of our border we have a mentality of malicious envy, a fervent belief that someone somewhere is doing them down, and an essentially unreconstructed 1950s Marxist political alignment. Taken together, these flaws tell me that Scotland is not only unfit to be independent, but also unfit to be in a political union with any western country; including, of course, the one it is presently in.

    Merely twitting nats by reminding them of the career of Andy Stewart strikes me as a pretty restrained approach. But since we are stuck with them for at least the next 50 years or so, perhaps I should back off a bit in the interests of PB harmony.

    So I will say nae muir -- er, sorry, I meant "no more" on this matter. Unless I should burst otherwise.
    Is there an insect loose in PB? I can hear a high pitched whine.

    No doubt the chickens will get it.....cluck! cluck!

    Ah, you've decided to become a brave bettor have you? Good stuff.
    What's your prediction for indy turnout and Yes/No proportion? We'll see if we can frame a bet or two around them.

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    Socrates said:

    Look the mods aren't around at the moment, so no discussion of phone hacking, Mike's made it clear, repeat offenders get banned until the conclusion of the trials, he doesn't want any more letters from News International's lawyers

    I know it's not your fault, but God British libel laws are depressing sometimes.
    It is more sub judice, even MPs have been advised not to talk/comment about the ongoing trial.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/phone-hacking/10405763/Dont-comment-on-Andy-Coulson-and-Rebekah-Brooks-MPs-told.html
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited February 2014
    For those in interested in American politics, John Kasich, sitting GOP governor of Ohio, is only on 43% against a virtually unknown Democrat, who is on 38%:

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=2009

    This shows how much difficulty the Republican brand has in the rustbelt these days, and Ohio is essential for them to win 2016.
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    In my experience, when I compare Alex Salmond to anyone from history, I manage to upset at least one person.

    Alex Salmond?

    Well I once did say in some respects Lady Thatcher and Salmond are equally responsible for Scotland having an Independence referendum.

    That upset some Nats as they read it as Salmond is like Thatcher.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    edited February 2014
    glw said:

    WATO - Labour's flagship jobs Guarantee program will run from one year only....

    which makes it nigh on utterly pointless...
    My God, Ed's managed to top the "stop property being marketed overseas" nonsense already, I'm beginning to wonder if he comes up with these daft ideas for a joke.
    It's an opposition strategy thing, for just this point in the electoral cycle. The goal is to come up with policies that are popular with floating voters, who generally aren't the brightest bulbs on the Christmas tree, but too idiotic for the government to nick.
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    CD13 said:



    But for some sections, it's their future you're dealing with, so I don't deliberately provoke them.

    It is exactly typical of the smallness of nats, however, that merely taking the mild mickey out of them is considered provocation worthy of an instant effusion of - admittedly fairly insipid - bile.

    This mentality is of a piece with that poll Hannan blogged about in the DT, in which 70% of Labour voters wanted a 50% top rate tax even if they knew it raised no more money.

    If applied to the votes cast in Scotland in 2010, where 83% of votes were cast for socialist parties, that poll implies a majority of Scots wants the state to deliberately destroy the wealth of others, because that majority envies them.

    So north of our border we have a mentality of malicious envy, a fervent belief that someone somewhere is doing them down, and an essentially unreconstructed 1950s Marxist political alignment. Taken together, these flaws tell me that Scotland is not only unfit to be independent, but also unfit to be in a political union with any western country; including, of course, the one it is presently in.

    Merely twitting nats by reminding them of the career of Andy Stewart strikes me as a pretty restrained approach. But since we are stuck with them for at least the next 50 years or so, perhaps I should back off a bit in the interests of PB harmony.

    So I will say nae muir -- er, sorry, I meant "no more" on this matter. Unless I should burst otherwise.
    Is there an insect loose in PB? I can hear a high pitched whine.

    No doubt the chickens will get it.....cluck! cluck!

    Ah, you've decide to become a brave bettor have you? Good stuff.
    What's your prediction for indy turnout and Yes/No proportion? We'll see if we can frame a bet or two around them.

    I was one of those who posted my prediction yesterday - as invited to by the thread header - Yes between 30-40.

    Did you post yours?

    If so you are a district minority among our Nationalist friends.....

  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,256
    edited February 2014

    CD13 said:



    But for some sections, it's their future you're dealing with, so I don't deliberately provoke them.

    It is exactly typical of the smallness of nats, however, that merely taking the mild mickey out of them is considered provocation worthy of an instant effusion of - admittedly fairly insipid - bile.

    This mentality is of a piece with that poll Hannan blogged about in the DT, in which 70% of Labour voters wanted a 50% top rate tax even if they knew it raised no more money.

    If applied to the votes cast in Scotland in 2010, where 83% of votes were cast for socialist parties, that poll implies a majority of Scots wants the state to deliberately destroy the wealth of others, because that majority envies them.

    So north of our border we have a mentality of malicious envy, a fervent belief that someone somewhere is doing them down, and an essentially unreconstructed 1950s Marxist political alignment. Taken together, these flaws tell me that Scotland is not only unfit to be independent, but also unfit to be in a political union with any western country; including, of course, the one it is presently in.

    Merely twitting nats by reminding them of the career of Andy Stewart strikes me as a pretty restrained approach. But since we are stuck with them for at least the next 50 years or so, perhaps I should back off a bit in the interests of PB harmony.

    So I will say nae muir -- er, sorry, I meant "no more" on this matter. Unless I should burst otherwise.
    Is there an insect loose in PB? I can hear a high pitched whine.

    No doubt the chickens will get it.....cluck! cluck!

    Ah, you've decide to become a brave bettor have you? Good stuff.
    What's your prediction for indy turnout and Yes/No proportion? We'll see if we can frame a bet or two around them.

    I was one of those who posted my prediction yesterday - as invited to by the thread header - Yes between 30-40.

    Did you post yours?

    If so you are a district minority among our Nationalist friends.....

    PB 'polls' on Indy are about as interesting as Cardinal O'Brien's views on gay marriage.
    I've already hoisted my PB flag by having several bets on the referendum, incl. two that Yes will be over 40%. I'm happy to offer you evens on that.

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:

    The view from the 63rd floor, outside Sirocco restaurant in Bangkok:

    pic.twitter.com/g6dsdBKA8M
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    Carnyx said:

    Sean_F said:

    Mr. F, I'd say Miliband is significantly worse. That's not to say Cameron's an Aurelian or Trajan, just that the alternative is an Arcadius or Honorius. Better a mediocre leader than an abysmal one.

    Of course, I have the 'luxury' of being in a seat where the vote is rather simple: vote Conservative or vote for someone with no hope of beating Ed Balls.

    Milliband is on a par with Honorius or Arcadius (or Francois Hollande). Cameron is on a par with Aspramites the Eunuch.
    No, Cameron is Xerxes I, George Osborne as Artabanus with Nick Clegg as Aspramites the Eunuch.

    Obviously I'm hoping Ed Miliband ends up playing the role of King Leonidas to Dave's Xerxes
    Surely that role falls to Mr Salmond, with Mr Miliband as the King of, say, Lycia. Especially when the last week has seen Mr Cameron sending his satraps forth.

    In my experience, when I compare Alex Salmond to anyone from history, I manage to upset at least one person.
    My favourite historical comparison to Alec Salmond is William Patterson of the Darien Venture. One ended up bankrupting Scotland by persuading people to back a destructive dream, while the other ...........

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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061


    I know the Scottish coast very well, but I've done only a handful of the islands. Some of my paternal distant relatives come from the Shetlands, and so does a mate, but I've never got over there.

    Still, I doubt any of the islands could compete in my affection with the northwest of the mainland. I love it.

    Wainwright, who eulogised about his beloved Lake District, still thought the most beautiful place in Britain was Sandwood Bay, just south down the coast a few miles from Cape Wrath.

    There is a place on Mull which eclipses it to my mind - one of the few places I've seen on Earth with a truly gobsmacking view as you turn around through 360 degrees - but it is top three certainly.

    Nothing anywhere else in Britain compares to the west coast of Scotland and the islands off there. I shall be going to Iona in April and Barra in September. Although for Barra, I may have to pull over at Gretna Green to change my Pounds into Thistles.....I expect to get a very good exchange rate.

    It's Sandwood Bay and Kearvaig for me. Heavenly places.

    I was once rewarded by whisky fairies at Sandwood Bay. It's also the last place a mermaid was seen on UK shores, so it might just have been a gift of whisky from a mermaid who fell madly in love with the bearded, scruffy and smelly walker who erected his tent behind the beach ...
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    currystar said:

    So we now have an economy with low inflation, record employment, low unemployment and high growth yet Labour are at 40% in the polls?

    Well, to be fair to the electorate you have to acknowledge:

    Low inflation - Yet wage increases are still even lower, so hardly much comfort.

    Record employment - Is that a record employment rate, or in absolute numbers, therefore reflecting an increase in population?

    Low unemployment - And yet we're only back down to levels last seen in early 2009, so there's a long way to go.

    High growth - If you have to appeal to GDP numbers then you are clutching at straws. They are meaningless in terms of the economic impact on voters.

    Labour at 40% - Only with YouGov I think. The last time they were at 40% with ICM was a year ago...
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    And, in other news, I see Ian Birrell has written an article tipping Jeremy Hunt as a possible Conservative leader after Dave:

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/19/replace-david-cameron-tory-leader

    I mentioned this a few months ago - in fact, I have a tenner at 66/1 invested in it from a while back. You can still get 33/1 PP and Wm Hill.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Socrates said:

    For those in interested in American politics, John Kasich, sitting GOP governor of Ohio, is only on 43% against a virtually unknown Democrat, who is on 38%:

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=2009

    This shows how much difficulty the Republican brand has in the rustbelt these days, and Ohio is essential for them to win 2016.

    There are paths other than the GOP taking Ohio but it's an extraordinarily difficult one.

    The most significant difficulty for the GOP is their latino problem where they lag 70/30 in Presidential elections. The effect of this is essentially to close off Nevada and Colorado just as New Mexico has gone. Arizona will also drift into battleground status and the Cuban/latino influence in Florida will wane.

    A further difficulty for the GOP is that Virginia will continue to trend blue as the burgeoning suburbs of DC continue to impinge on the state.

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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited February 2014
    MikeK said:

    AveryLP said:

    And the good news surpasses all expectations

    Wonderful Labour market statistics this morning with employment up to an all time record high and unemployment crashing down in all segments.

    Is there no height St. George cannot scale?

    The key findings from this months ONS bulletin:

    For October to December 2013, compared with July to September 2013:

    • The number of people in employment increased by 193,000 to reach 30.15 million.

    • The number of unemployed people fell by 125,000 to reach 2.34 million.

    • The number of economically inactive people aged from 16 to 64 increased by 8,000 to reach 8.93 million.

    Comparing October to December 2013 with a year earlier:

    • There were 396,000 more people in employment.

    • There were 161,000 fewer unemployed people.

    • There were 23,000 fewer economically inactive people aged from 16 to 64


    Will there be any shirkers left to vote for Labour in May 2015?

    My dear AveryLP, What the statistics say is that unemployment is now stands at 7.2% compared with last months 7.1% (BBC). So who is playing with numbers?

    Your St. George has got a Dragon by the tail but it is biting his arse.
    Sorry for the late answer, me old Weather[moderated], but I had to shoot and run this morning.

    The headline ONS 'Unemployment Rate' is the number of unemployed people (aged 16+) divided by the economically active population (aged 16+). The economically active population is defined as those in employment plus those who are unemployed.

    So the rate involves:

    1. The numerator: the number of people who are unemployed (aged 16-64, who have sought work during the past four weeks and who are available to work within two weeks).
    2. The denominator: Number of people in employment (16+) plus 1. above.

    Unemployment can fall at the same time as the unemployment rate rises if the number of people actively seeking employment increases faster than the number of people employed.

    In the case of today's figures:

    Between Sep-Nov 2013 the 'economically active' numbers fell by -3,881.
    Between Oct-Dec 2013 the 'economically active' numbers increased by 17,676.

    The difference between the two periods in the numbers of people employed was 3,523.

    Bearing in mind the figures are 'seasonally adjusted' in accordance with the ONS model and are rolling quarterly averages, the difference between this month's unemployment rate being 7.2% and last month's being 7.1% is virtually insignificant.

    The trend is your friend, Mike, and this is as upward as Nigel's index finger.
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