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What will the King’s speech do to rising pessimism? – politicalbetting.com
What will the King’s speech do to rising pessimism? – politicalbetting.com
Are Britons optimistic or pessimistic about the general direction in which the UK is heading? (29 October)Pessimistic: 44% (+1)Optimistic: 28% (-4)Changes +/- 22 October pic.twitter.com/1cytXsCh15
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Don't think there was anything in today's that changed the weather for Sunak
"For much of his leadership Blair instinctively ran from anything that could give him any cause to be unpopular. So yes he could have tried to force us into the Euro, but he wouldn’t have done, because that wasn’t his way. Also, as we all know, Gordon Brown was not a fan of the idea."
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I am firmly of the belief Blair had enough political capital, and liberal media backing, to have faced down Brown and forced us into the euro in 1997-8. He was so overwhelmingly popular. He could have done it in his first 100 days and we would barely have noticed in the giddy whirl
However , as you say, he has a pathological need to be liked, and it would have annoyed people and made them dislike him, so it didn't happen
On such personal psychological flaws, the fate of nations turn
As 1997 showed, this doesn't necessarily translate into Tory votes, in fact people may partly feel more optimistic because they expect a change of government. I think there are a few things likely to make the public less pessimistic than in 2022:
- Inflation is now falling, albeit still high, rather than skyrocketing. Particularly noticeable in heating bills as we enter winter
- For all that Sunak's government is a bit limp, it's not the same crazed chaos as under latter day Johnson or the Truss-Kwarteng fever dream
- The Russia-Ukraine war was pretty terrifying when it started but is now part of the furniture
So I don't think I agree with the header. There's a short term rise in pessimism but it's well down longer term.
I’ve always found it a very Westminster bubble day really. Get Liz or Charlie dressed up to blabber about whatever the government buzzwords of the day are, send them back to the Palace while the politicians have a bit of a shouting match, nothing of great consequence is really gleaned or achieved, beyond the functions of the State being performed, which is the main reason for it (and hence why it’s important, but it’s important for the tradition and the constitutional significance, not really the political significance).
What it will do to everything else - feck all.
Also, I think the nation is finally getting over Brexit. The departure of Boris has probably drawn a lot of the poison, but I also sense a genuine feeling of: it's done, like it or not, make the best of it. Clearly a lot of people, a sizeable majority, regret it - as things stand- but I doubt half of those people want to actually revisit it
This itself removes a shadow from British politics. We are in the post-Brexit era now, with its advantages and disadvantages; turns out it wasn't the immediate sunlit uplands promised by some, but neither was it the catastrophe that broke up the UK threatened by others. Meh
But I do think it genuinely matters to many MPs - is there an agenda there that the Tory backbencher is enthusiastic about, that they look forward to sparring with the opposition over and selling to the public?
There's a bit there on that front - I can see drilling be popular with some Tory MPs, some tough on crime stuff (although the elephant in the room is creaking prison system), phased smoking ban potentially has some appeal. But it's light, I have to say.
Purely from a strategic point of view, we're approaching an election, and the government have the initiative by default - they're squandering it, and Sunak continues to be really, really bad at politics. There's no vision, no answers to the big questions. Just performative nibbling around the edges.
"Portuguese PM António Costa resigns as corruption crisis explodes"
https://www.ft.com/content/928a5144-749a-4e21-b52d-c01c5d52a46c
Looking ominous.
I think in some respects pessimism would be good for Sunak. If people don't believe that anything better is possible, then they might be tempted to vote for the status quo to avoid a perceived risk of a Labour government making things worse.
Agree that the last thing we need to is revisit the national trauma of Brexit.
Is the seeming lack of enthusiasm a victim of rose tinted nostalgia about the Blair years? In my lifetime there have been only 3 proper changes of government: Callaghan to Thatcher in 1979, Major to Blair in 1997 and Brown to Cameron in 2010. There was by all accounts no great enthusiasm in 1979. In 1997 there was certainly a sense of a refreshing change on the horizon but the reporting at the time was, just like now, dominated by disappointment with the tired and fractious Tory government on its way out. Blair remained a bit unknown and unproven. And in 2010 the lack of enthusiasm for the alternative was such that the Lib Dems were polling in the mid to high 20s during the election campaign.
So I certainly don't think the public is unusually cool towards Starmer's Labour. They seem about as enthused as they ever get, which is not much. I'd say the same of business sentiment too.
It's now filed under: really regrettable, but oh well, like a bad relationship that is now years in the past, but you get over things
“Homelessness is a choice: it’s a political choice,”
“Without a serious Home Secretary there can be no serious government and he cannot be a serious prime minister.”
Highlighted in recent days by at last some common sense re school trips to the UK . Re-joining horizon, the WF etc . Of course the right wing press would have gone into meltdown had Starmer done these things .
Not wanting to re-hash the Brexit drama but the biggest mistake was to put a so called Remainer in charge in May who spent most of her time over-compensating for that .
This is a quite incredible story. Inevitably the vile Grayling makes an appearance as a minor villain of the piece - do people like him go into politics with the intention of making other people's lives as bad as possible in any way they can manage?
Rejoin? Not in my lifetime.
This doesn't apply this time round because Corbyn's defeat in 2019 wasn't a surprise. And I think there's also a lot less enthusiasm just because - after Brexit, Covid, Boris, Truss and the decline in living standards - Britain is feeling a bit exhausted. You might think that some Blair-style optimism would be helpful in the circumstances, but I think it would come across as detached from reality.
So, no enthusiasm. The best Starmer can hope for is a grim determination to get a job that needs doing done, and done properly.
...A month after his father’s death, astonishing information was uncovered. Although the police had taken Hallam’s phone for evidence, they had not bothered to search through it. The new investigation by Thames Valley police did the basic work that the Metropolitan police failed to do in the first place.
The phone contained photos that Hallam had taken at his grandmother’s house on the afternoon of the murder ...
Sadly, the story is not in the least bit incredible.
Meanwhile - it is your fault that the nation is largely poppyless because no one carries cash any more. Proud of yourself?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/06/chris-grayling-joins-list-of-tories-standing-down-at-next-election
The point is that currently you can refuse to appear in court. The idea is to change that right. I don't see a problem with that to be honest. If you are found guilty of a crime then facing sentencing and being seen in court seems reasonable to me.
Of course, the Tories were very happy to let someone who argued exactly the same thing be their last PM…
And look at Michael Stone who has been in prison for 23 years for the Chillenden Murders when there is absolutely no evidence whatsoever and Levi Bellfield has admitted to the crime.
This year I really want to honour those British soldiers murdered by Jewish terrorists like Sergeant Clifford Martin and Sergeant Mervyn Paice.
Talk to the police only if you have to & then only with a solicitor at your side. Ideally one you’re paying for yourself if you can afford it but the duty solicitor is a whole world better than no solicitor at all.
Easy to say of course, harder to put into practice when the police are “inviting” you to interview.
You would be in contempt of court and the judge/magistrate would issue a warrant for your arrest. Once arrested the police would then ensure that you attended court. It's not difficult.
If it is accurate, it's a good idea in theory. But how will the state force them?
It's purely performative, naturally.
Their bodies were booby trapped.
Learn some history.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sergeants_affair
The families of Lucy Letby’s victims were there every day for months, and were denied the right to address her in court after her conviction.
That situation, very narrowly, is what the government seeks to change. It’s not about your average scrote being dragged to the magistrates.
In principle people are already compelled to attend the courts, and to the extent that they fail to do so it's because the criminal justice system is underfunded. But if the system believes it is important enough to get you there then they will, to the extent of pursuing extradition if you've fled abroad, for example.
Again, I think this is a bizarre argument for you to make.
I assume this is an *option* for victims, who wish to see the accused, rather than a requirement? Otherwise, we'll be adding a whole bunch of cost transporting prisoners from prison in Northumberland to a court in London to be sentenced for a crime where they pled guilty from afar? And - given the court service is already straining at the edges as far as timings go - are we really going to add additional costs rescheduling sentencing?
Because that's my fear here: a very understandable change is going to make our already poorly functioning courts work even less well. Which means fewer guilty people convicted.
So...
Last!
1. Ex-RAF
2 Father ex-military, brother in military.
That's out of a couple of hundred.
I used to wear one as a student in UCL in the 80s because it really wound up the lefties
Now that poppies are out of fashion again, I shall wear them again. Win win
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/aug/21/lucy-letby-has-destroyed-our-lives-the-family-victim-statements
If you drag someone to court you can’t force them to listen. If you play the sentencing remarks into their cell (isn’t this actually a better option than trying to get some poor officer to have to try and drag them into court?!) then you can’t stop them putting their hands over their ears, or what have you.
And how many cases in all the criminal justice system does this actually affect? I get that the victim or sadly the victims families in these cases want justice to be seen to be done; and I can’t even imagine what they have to go through in the court process. But is this even a wide practice from convicted people?
https://x.com/spectatorindex/status/1721925383891845521?s=20
Absolute waste of time legislation from a government that is simply marking time until their election defeat.
Should just about get them there.