Must say, some splendid footy punditry from SeanT earlier, as the "EPL" richest team plods around chasing Barca like the Dog and Duck XI after 3 pints of Greene King watching some Morris Dancing.
Ah, so you ARE tim. My hope was to smoke you out. You couldn't resist, could you?
Arf.
No I'm not.
I need to make that very clear, again, because I know (from reading posts here) that Tim has a) outstanding bets and b) an impeccable reputation on betting.
It is nominally at least a betting site after all.
I rest my case, m'Lud.
Are you missing Tim? I thought you and he were the same bloke until last night!
Please don't stop him now. Watching the precise same thing play out again is always entertaining.
Must say, some splendid footy punditry from SeanT earlier, as the "EPL" richest team plods around chasing Barca like the Dog and Duck XI after 3 pints of Greene King watching some Morris Dancing.
That will be the same Barcelona that were two up against Chelsea in the Nou Camp, with Chelsea down to ten men and no centre backs, and still couldn't win.
In fifty years of going to football I have never seen a team get so many dodgy decisions go their way.
And City had good chances to score even when they were down to ten men.
I know that the successful Oxbridge entrants from public schools are less than the proportion of public school applicants. I used this fact to my advantage.
Yeah, but that doesn't really contradict the view that there's a disproportionate amount of public school entrants to Oxbridge. AB mentioned 2% of population who've attended public school (no idea if that's accurate); I'm still guessing that's a lot lower than successful p.s. Oxbridge entrants.
Of course many more applicants and entrants come from public schools than do from state schools, both in absolute and proportional terms. But, an applicant from a state school has a better chance of admission than a public school applicant if they're equal in all other ways. Which is why I left Marlborough College and went to the local state school after my GCSEs, and why I told the interviewing Dons that when they asked why I'd left Marlborough.
usual naive nonsense divvie. They are underrepresented because they pack their bags and head to westminster, cut off that option and they stay in Scotland so you get Darling or Gove as well as Fergus Ewing. Elites look after themselves and if the Westminster road is cut off then they stay at home and organise things to suit themselves.
I see you've entirely body swerved my point about a disproportionate amount of public school entrants to Oxbridge.
I'm sorry to break it to you, but snobs (which my father tended towards) don't consider the likes of Robert Gordon's (Gove's alma mater) as a 'public school'.
In any case, Wiki says independent schools account for around 7% of pupils in England and 3% in Scotland. That's a basic difference from the get go.
Come on McPiglet, give us your Indy Ref and GE predictions so we can judge whether you know more about Scotland or rUK in 15 months time. Or reveal yourself as a prize McChicken.
Must say, some splendid footy punditry from SeanT earlier, as the "EPL" richest team plods around chasing Barca like the Dog and Duck XI after 3 pints of Greene King watching some Morris Dancing.
Ah, so you ARE tim. My hope was to smoke you out. You couldn't resist, could you?
Arf.
No I'm not.
I need to make that very clear, again, because I know (from reading posts here) that Tim has a) outstanding bets and b) an impeccable reputation on betting.
It is nominally at least a betting site after all.
I rest my case, m'Lud.
Outstanding's not the word I'd use.. UKIP were 1/5 to get less than 10% w Ladbrokes when we had the bet and theyre 8/15 now!!
In case McChicken is going to demand my predictions first: Yes 46 No 54; Con 38 Lab 34. I'm worried I may be closer with the Indy Ref than with the GE...
I voted for 40 to 50 percent. Which Muppet voted for 90+?
Which muppets voted for 0 to 10 percent?
Not me, I recognise that there are a lot of believers in Emperor Eck's chance of immortality, even though they might have many different views of how to celebrate and then mould Scotland to their own belief on how the country will be run.
usual naive nonsense divvie. They are underrepresented because they pack their bags and head to westminster, cut off that option and they stay in Scotland so you get Darling or Gove as well as Fergus Ewing. Elites look after themselves and if the Westminster road is cut off then they stay at home and organise things to suit themselves.
I see you've entirely body swerved my point about a disproportionate amount of public school entrants to Oxbridge.
I'm sorry to break it to you, but snobs (which my father tended towards) don't consider the likes of Robert Gordon's (Gove's alma mater) as a 'public school'.
In any case, Wiki says independent schools account for around 7% of pupils in England and 3% in Scotland. That's a basic difference from the get go.
Not at all divvie Oxbridge gets a higher proportion of public school candidates because PS are more likely to push their kids that way and state schools don't. What are you going to do set quotas ? Public schools in england while to you are evidence of a class to me are more evidence of a failing education system as the figures this morning illustrated.
And as for the difference between england and scotland that doesn't really mean much, the majority of public school kids in england - we had this re Eton of all places - end up doing fairly non-descript middle class jobs such as lawyers and doctors, they don't become politicians. The nat mythology which insists everyone's a public school elitist toff is simply guff.
How is Bangkok?! My advice is just stay away from the protest zones at night and you will be fine. You are much more at danger from being run over in the city's insane traffic.
If your hotel is smack bang in the middle of a protest zone (quite difficult, as there are only 3 or 4 such zones, in a city of 10m) then I suggest you move hotel.
Otherwise, enjoy! You are almost certainly getting a cheaper deal now, on all fronts, as Bangkok is desperate for more tourist business. And the sun shines all day at this time of year.
*envious, wistful sigh*
I'm staying at the Novotel Ploenchit opposite the BTS station, but I can still see tents on the road below belonging to protestors. Might try out the SkyBar at Lebua tonight.
"The threat of civil war is now very real in Thailand":
usual naive nonsense divvie. They are underrepresented because they pack their bags and head to westminster, cut off that option and they stay in Scotland so you get Darling or Gove as well as Fergus Ewing. Elites look after themselves and if the Westminster road is cut off then they stay at home and organise things to suit themselves.
I see you've entirely body swerved my point about a disproportionate amount of public school entrants to Oxbridge.
I'm sorry to break it to you, but snobs (which my father tended towards) don't consider the likes of Robert Gordon's (Gove's alma mater) as a 'public school'.
In any case, Wiki says independent schools account for around 7% of pupils in England and 3% in Scotland. That's a basic difference from the get go.
Not at all divvie Oxbridge gets a higher proportion of public school candidates because PS are more likely to push their kids that way and state schools don't. What are you going to do set quotas ? Public schools in england while to you are evidence of a class to me are more evidence of a failing education system as the figures this morning illustrated.
And as for the difference between england and scotland that doesn't really mean much, the majority of public school kids in england - we had this re Eton of all places - end up doing fairly non-descript middle class jobs such as lawyers and doctors, they don't become politicians. The nat mythology which insists everyone's a public school elitist toff is simply guff.
I'd say you are both right in part. Public schooling and Oxbridge were definitely launchpads in their way (as Trade Union and Ruskin College or ?Newbattle Abbey, for instance, once (and still?) were in the Labour movement). But the effect of public schooling seemed to be to wring out all the potential of each schoolchild and push them through the exam system - once that support is lost some of them fell by the wayside at university. My ex-public school chums seemed to have a much more mixed record of formal academic uni success than the ex-state school chaps - a sort of opposite phenomenon from the reversion to the mean.
So for all the uniformity of their suits and blazers at 18, a lot of public school types would have ended up as accountants and medics and the like - but some became highflyers or idiosyncratic academics or just plain dropouts.
No idea if that phenomenon still occurs but it was a very real one in the 1970s and 1980s.
The SNP front bench is notably mixed educationally - rather different from the three main UK parliament parties. I have not seen any analyses of the Holyrood Tories, LDs and Labour.
Come on you great big McWimp, post your predictions.
You think if you shriek loud enough I'll suddenly give a shit what a you say TimmyTommy? Think again chum. Calm down and wipe the spittle from your monitor before you hurt yourself you amusing twerp.
Labour's lead does seem to have ticked upwards again the last couple of weeks.
Hence the shrill shrieking from the right wingers on anything apart from westminster politics.
I hadn't noticed!
They'll get their mojo back if there's a decent poll or event for the Tories, until then we're probably stuck with Braveheart and squirrels :-(
How much time/effort in the political calendar is this referendum going to eat up? The media fever seems to have inched up a notch as the London press realise that it really is quite a fascinating rolling story. The danger for the government is it takes up a good chunk of the political airtime, which it may if it is at all close.
Come on you great big McWimp, post your predictions.
You think if you shriek loud enough I'll suddenly give a shit what a you say TimmyTommy? Think again chum. Calm down and wipe the spittle from the monitor before you hurt yourself you amusing twerp.
Labour's lead does seem to have ticked upwards again the last couple of weeks.
Hence the shrill shrieking from the right wingers on anything apart from westminster politics.
I hadn't noticed!
They'll get their mojo back if there's a decent poll or event for the Tories, until then we're probably stuck with Braveheart and squirrels :-(
How much time/effort in the political calendar is this referendum going to eat up? The media fever seems to have inched up a notch as the London press realise that it really is quite a fascinating rolling story. The danger for the government is it takes up a good chunk of the political airtime, which it may if it is at all close.
Which one? (referendum I mean).
Never mind, if the moderators allow one to predict future incarnations (as opposed to reincarnations) we'll all be accumulating enough positive karma to end up with a nice quiet life next time round. Say, as a tapeworm in a blue whale ...
Labour's lead does seem to have ticked upwards again the last couple of weeks.
Hence the shrill shrieking from the right wingers on anything apart from westminster politics.
I hadn't noticed!
They'll get their mojo back if there's a decent poll or event for the Tories, until then we're probably stuck with Braveheart and squirrels :-(
How much time/effort in the political calendar is this referendum going to eat up? The media fever seems to have inched up a notch as the London press realise that it really is quite a fascinating rolling story. The danger for the government is it takes up a good chunk of the political airtime, which it may if it is at all close.
And why would it be a danger? They seem to be loving it ...
Come on you great big McWimp, post your predictions.
You think if you shriek loud enough I'll suddenly give a shit what a you say TimmyTommy? Think again chum. Calm down and wipe the spittle from the monitor before you hurt yourself you amusing twerp.
So McBwak McBwak...
Bwak??
LOL
Poor old TimmyTommy. You seem so furious and enraged you could be accused of losing the ability to post coherently except you obviously never possessed it in the first place.
Go back to your petulant shrieking, it's clearly all you're good for.
This on top of the lib dem Wythenshawe disaster and it's beginning to look like Clegg's ostrich faction are going to be dealing with a whisper campaign against Clegg after May.
Public schools prepare their pupils for Oxbridge more intensely than state schools as they see success at getting pupils in to Oxbridge as something that makes the place attractive to parents. Most public school folks end up doing "respectable" middle class jobs.
The UK front bench phenomenon is probably more function of Oxford PPE where something like 16% of MPs have the dreaded letters. The issue of elites is increasingly less that of their schools and more the professionalisation of politicians in a small clique. Nicola Sturgeon appears to be leading the way for the Nats.
I would also contend that comparisons between UK and Scottish parliaments are fairly pointless since the issue is really what would a Indy Parlt look like ? Since there are 129 Holyrood seats and Scotland sends 59 of it's best and brightest to Westminster, I'd say that post indy the 59 would displace more of the 129 and give it a few years there won't be that much difference between the two parliaments.
Labour's lead does seem to have ticked upwards again the last couple of weeks.
Hence the shrill shrieking from the right wingers on anything apart from westminster politics.
I hadn't noticed!
They'll get their mojo back if there's a decent poll or event for the Tories, until then we're probably stuck with Braveheart and squirrels :-(
How much time/effort in the political calendar is this referendum going to eat up? The media fever seems to have inched up a notch as the London press realise that it really is quite a fascinating rolling story. The danger for the government is it takes up a good chunk of the political airtime, which it may if it is at all close.
And why would it be a danger? They seem to be loving it ...
Well let's see, 8 months direction onto Scottish politics (yes I do know, but the media will need another month to wrap up the result ) and what would give the coalition greater pleasure away from the consideration of their own governance and then only 7 months before the GE.
Who knows, there might even be a hot summer and water rationing ;^) in the meantime. Then again, Cameron might actually win a war.
This on top of the lib dem Wythenshawe disaster and it's beginning to look like Clegg's ostrich faction are going to be dealing with a whisper campaign against Clegg after May.
I wonder what Lib Dem infighting is even like?
Clegg is safe, he needs to absorb as much toxicity personally as he can for the sake of the party, then be flushed down the sewer.
Well it's blatantly obvious that any possible lib dem challenger and leader replacement doesn't want to take over and become the coalition shit magnet this far out from the GE. The question is whether any of them have the bottle to initiate leadership proceedings as the 2015 election campaign looms. Whisper campaign? They might do that and hope Clegg does the decent thing and stands down. It's also pertinent that any challenger who waited till after 2015 would be dealing with a devastated lib dem party with far less MPs and no clear way of knowing who will remain and which way they will jump. (against the Clegg direction of travel obviously but that there will be very few realistic replacements who won't be doing that)
This on top of the lib dem Wythenshawe disaster and it's beginning to look like Clegg's ostrich faction are going to be dealing with a whisper campaign against Clegg after May.
I wonder what Lib Dem infighting is even like?
Clegg is safe, he needs to absorb as much toxicity personally as he can for the sake of the party, then be flushed down the sewer.
Well it's blatantly obvious that any possible lib dem challenger and leader replacement doesn't want to take over and become the coalition shit magnet this far out from the GE. The question is whether any of them have the bottle to initiate leadership proceedings as the 2015 election campaign looms. Whisper campaign? They might do that and hope Clegg does the decent thing and stands down. It's also pertinent that any challenger who waited till after 2015 would be dealing with a devastated lib dem party with far less MPs and no clear way of knowing who will remain and which way they will jump. (against the Clegg direction of travel obviously but that there will be very few realistic replacements who won't be doing that)
McBlatantly McObvious but too McChicken to put it in a percentage prediction?
Public schools prepare their pupils for Oxbridge more intensely than state schools as they see success at getting pupils in to Oxbridge as something that makes the place attractive to parents. Most public school folks end up doing "respectable" middle class jobs.
The UK front bench phenomenon is probably more function of Oxford PPE where something like 16% of MPs have the dreaded letters. The issue of elites is increasingly less that of their schools and more the professionalisation of politicians in a small clique. Nicola Sturgeon appears to be leading the way for the Nats.
I would also contend that comparisons between UK and Scottish parliaments are fairly pointless since the issue is really what would a Indy Parlt look like ? Since there are 129 Holyrood seats and Scotland sends 59 of it's best and brightest to Westminster, I'd say that post indy the 59 would displace more of the 129 and give it a few years there won't be that much difference between the two parliaments.
Thanks: all good food for thought, and quite right on the first point.
I did wonder about the final point, but decided not to explore it. As you say, it would affect Labour, and to some extent the LDs, far more than (for their very different reasons) the SNP and Tories. So yes we get the 2nd XV there. But there is another factor however which is that experienced Labour MSPs stood on the constituency lists and some got the chop in 2011, but were to a considerable degree (as the system was devised to do) replaced under the weird Holyrood system with the third XV who were on the regional lists. So the current lot is a sort of mix of 2nd XV partly struck down by dreaded lurgy and replacements from the 3rd XV.
All the time I was watching "The Monuments Men", I thought the British chap was Colin Firth. Only when the credits came up at the end did I realise it was Hugh Bonneville. I must be getting senile, or perhaps I'm not cultured enough.
Public schools prepare their pupils for Oxbridge more intensely than state schools as they see success at getting pupils in to Oxbridge as something that makes the place attractive to parents. Most public school folks end up doing "respectable" middle class jobs.
The UK front bench phenomenon is probably more function of Oxford PPE where something like 16% of MPs have the dreaded letters. The issue of elites is increasingly less that of their schools and more the professionalisation of politicians in a small clique. Nicola Sturgeon appears to be leading the way for the Nats.
I would also contend that comparisons between UK and Scottish parliaments are fairly pointless since the issue is really what would a Indy Parlt look like ? Since there are 129 Holyrood seats and Scotland sends 59 of it's best and brightest to Westminster, I'd say that post indy the 59 would displace more of the 129 and give it a few years there won't be that much difference between the two parliaments.
UK politics particularly Labour is becoming hereditary, Benn, Prescott, Blair, Kinnock, Vas, to name just a few off the top of my head, then you have the married couples, Balls, Dromey, to make sure the gravy train is kept nice and tightly controlled.
This on top of the lib dem Wythenshawe disaster and it's beginning to look like Clegg's ostrich faction are going to be dealing with a whisper campaign against Clegg after May.
I wonder what Lib Dem infighting is even like?
Clegg is safe, he needs to absorb as much toxicity personally as he can for the sake of the party, then be flushed down the sewer.
Well it's blatantly obvious that any possible lib dem challenger and leader replacement doesn't want to take over and become the coalition shit magnet this far out from the GE. The question is whether any of them have the bottle to initiate leadership proceedings as the 2015 election campaign looms. Whisper campaign? They might do that and hope Clegg does the decent thing and stands down. It's also pertinent that any challenger who waited till after 2015 would be dealing with a devastated lib dem party with far less MPs and no clear way of knowing who will remain and which way they will jump. (against the Clegg direction of travel obviously but that there will be very few realistic replacements who won't be doing that)
No, they'll fight a Labour 2010 style rearguard action.
Cling on for dear life best they can, then rebuild once the shit magnet has gone, hoping there's still something left of the party to actually build on.
Shit magnet Clegg is safe.
That does still depend on lib dem MPs in far from safe seats not panicking or indeed just initiating revenge proceedings for why they are about to lose their seat.
I really don't think it's quite sunk in yet just how damaging calamity Clegg is going to be in any election campaign. He will be eviscerated by the media and the public if he makes any pledges or "no more broken promises" this time around. 'Red lines' will be sought on every single policy for him to deal with.
A party leader unable to make any credible pledges or promises in an election campaign is dead weight. Those lib dem MPs in very marginal seats might just decide that a temporary boost and honeymoon period from a new leader could just be worth it if it enables them to hang onto their job. It does seem clear that Clegg's ostrich faction want to hang on though. So it's just a question of whether desperate self-preservation or a weary resignation to a an electoral disaster is the more prevalent attitude among lib dem MPs and the activist base. (what's left of them by then)
This on top of the lib dem Wythenshawe disaster and it's beginning to look like Clegg's ostrich faction are going to be dealing with a whisper campaign against Clegg after May.
I wonder what Lib Dem infighting is even like?
Clegg is safe, he needs to absorb as much toxicity personally as he can for the sake of the party, then be flushed down the sewer.
Well it's blatantly obvious that any possible lib dem challenger and leader replacement doesn't want to take over and become the coalition shit magnet this far out from the GE. The question is whether any of them have the bottle to initiate leadership proceedings as the 2015 election campaign looms. Whisper campaign? They might do that and hope Clegg does the decent thing and stands down. It's also pertinent that any challenger who waited till after 2015 would be dealing with a devastated lib dem party with far less MPs and no clear way of knowing who will remain and which way they will jump. (against the Clegg direction of travel obviously but that there will be very few realistic replacements who won't be doing that)
No, they'll fight a Labour 2010 style rearguard action.
Cling on for dear life best they can, then rebuild once the shit magnet has gone, hoping there's still something left of the party to actually build on.
Shit magnet Clegg is safe.
That does still depend on lib dem MPs in far from safe seats not panicking or indeed just initiating revenge proceedings for why they are about to lose their seat.
I really don't think it's quite sunk in yet just how damaging calamity Clegg is going to be in any election campaign. He will be eviscerated by the media and the public if he makes any pledges or "no more broken promises" this time around. 'Red lines' will be sought on every single policy for him to deal with.
A party leader unable to make any credible pledges or promises in an election campaign is dead weight. Those lib dem MPs in very marginal seats might just decide that a temporary boost and honeymoon period from a new leader could just be worth it if it enables them to hang onto their job. It does seem clear that Clegg's ostrich faction want to hang on though. So it's just a question of whether desperate self-preservation or a weary resignation to a an electoral disaster is the more prevalent attitude among lib dem MPs and the activist base. (what's left of them by then)
The Nats seem remarkably coy about their predictions, but smart punters will have taken note firstly of Jack W, and then of antifrank's pithy post.
For those who weren't around at the time, antifrank's contribution to Hibernian psephology first came to notice when he correctly predicted (and he may well have been the only person who predicted) that there would be not a haggis, not a sausage, not even a designer chipolata's worth, of change in the Scottish seat totals in GE 2010 compared with 2005:
We can expect this election to be a no change election in Scotland at least.
And what future for Ukraine? Civil war and a northwest v southeast tearing apart? My sympathy goes out to those Ukraine freedom fighters who lost their lives today:
Can both of you confirm you understand these instructions.
For the avoidance of doubt I will happily abide by yet more restrictions on language by you. A timely intervention indeed and thankfully the only one that needed to be made.
Interesting Dan Hodges piece on what Twitch Plays Pokemon means for Ed Miliband.
LOL
Watching abit of the Scottish parliament today,loved how Sturgeon kept reminding the Scottish public of Scottish labours new found friends - the tories = lol
Scottish labour must be cringing ;-) it looked it every time she mentioned it ;-)
I'm getting worried for Osborne. People have short memories, and he's starting to make this economic management thing look just too easy. Widespread public complacency could let Balls in by the back door. I never thought things could be too perfect, but Osborne looks as if he's getting there.
I'm getting worried for Osborne. People have short memories, and he's starting to make this economic management thing look just too easy. Widespread public complacency could let Balls in by the back door. I never thought things could be too perfect, but Osborne looks as if he's getting there.
Interesting Dan Hodges piece on what Twitch Plays Pokemon means for Ed Miliband.
LOL
Watching abit of the Scottish parliament today,loved how Sturgeon kept reminding the Scottish public of Scottish labours new found friends - the tories = lol
Scottish labour must be cringing ;-) it looked it every time she mentioned it ;-)
Not new but given rocket fuel by having Osbrowne as the face of the No campaign. Some of the more amusing PB tories on here still haven't worked out that bouncing labour into this is not going to soon be forgotten by some in labour. They had their own timetable and strategy and having Osbrowne front and centre with them tagging along behind was definitely not it.
If the polls start to go bad for No in the final deciding weeks of the campaign then expect a colossal bucket of sh*t to be poured all over Cammie and Osbrowne's 'master strategies' as the blame game takes on a huge dimension. It will then be used in the GE campaign which will be all but underway by that time anyway.
I have to say it looks like a very heavy Belfast night of the past, just with larger number in one place.
The tactical situation on the ground at the epicentre of trouble is not good for the protestors as it stands. Its a space that can ultimately be choked by the authorities and the street -based opposition movement will need to maintain channels. It is, bluntly, a man's fight. You look at the protestors now, its overwhelmingly men, often younger. The opposition movement has left its street fighters out which doesn't bode well for peace in the very short term.
At this point at street-level, the advantages lie with the authorities. To that end the opposition needs:
1. a loss of nerve on the political front by the President. He himself is slightly shaky and has been for a bit. Plenty of others around him are most definitely not at this point.
2. Assuming this requires being on the street to get their way, what the opposition needs is to launch out elsewhere, both in Kiev and around the country. So far this has not happened to the degree it needs to.
As a result the authorities could crack down in the one major location and finish this stage of protest. The bloodshed may be mighty but within that space the authorities have the ability to cycle resources and do a mix of holding the line and upsurges to exhaust the protestors, over days if necessary, before moving in.
The authorities do have more tools here and haven't used them . It is, believe it or not, an element of restraint or alternatively the subject to a stiffling internal debate that is stiffling the full on crackdown.
No sign of the army yet. If the current government had full control and/or direction it wouldn't need a law to bring them in, it would need an order. It hasn't come even though a significant number of military personnel have been moved closer to the action.
It is delicately poised. From the armchair, and sadly for the protestors, it looks as if they have some policy and civil affairs wonks in suits from the EU to advise them. The Ukrainian government has Putin and a fairly (it isn't 100%) solid security apparatus. Doesnt sound even does it? In reality there is somewhat more robust and dirty tactics type contacts coming from at least two EU countries. The Russians say the Europeans are stoking. On this they are correct.
'Watching abit of the Scottish parliament today,loved how Sturgeon kept reminding the Scottish public of Scottish labours new found friends - the tories = lol'
What else can she say when two of the SNP's key separation policies have been demolished in a week?
Comments
I am tim
You are tim
He/she is tim
We are tim
They are tim
You (plural) are tim
Moderators are not tim
In fifty years of going to football I have never seen a team get so many dodgy decisions go their way.
And City had good chances to score even when they were down to ten men.
'One word of advice to the Nats, get KP* back! He's the only one who can keep Salmond under control before he becomes a national joke.'
Unfortunately too late, after the past week he's already become a laughing stock.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour remain seven points ahead: CON 33%, LAB 40%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%
I'm sorry to break it to you, but snobs (which my father tended towards) don't consider the likes of Robert Gordon's (Gove's alma mater) as a 'public school'.
In any case, Wiki says independent schools account for around 7% of pupils in England and 3% in Scotland. That's a basic difference from the get go.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26249330
He might have a new nickname on here by now though
And as for the difference between england and scotland that doesn't really mean much, the majority of public school kids in england - we had this re Eton of all places - end up doing fairly non-descript middle class jobs such as lawyers and doctors, they don't become politicians. The nat mythology which insists everyone's a public school elitist toff is simply guff.
"The threat of civil war is now very real in Thailand":
http://www.leftfootforward.org/2014/02/the-threat-of-violence-is-now-very-real-in-thailand/
Mike Smithson was 17th century powdered wigmaker named Ivor Pollworthy
So for all the uniformity of their suits and blazers at 18, a lot of public school types would have ended up as accountants and medics and the like - but some became highflyers or idiosyncratic academics or just plain dropouts.
No idea if that phenomenon still occurs but it was a very real one in the 1970s and 1980s.
The SNP front bench is notably mixed educationally - rather different from the three main UK parliament parties. I have not seen any analyses of the Holyrood Tories, LDs and Labour.
You think if you shriek loud enough I'll suddenly give a shit what a you say TimmyTommy?
Think again chum. Calm down and wipe the spittle from your monitor before you hurt yourself you amusing twerp.
Never mind, if the moderators allow one to predict future incarnations (as opposed to reincarnations) we'll all be accumulating enough positive karma to end up with a nice quiet life next time round. Say, as a tapeworm in a blue whale ...
LOL
Poor old TimmyTommy. You seem so furious and enraged you could be accused of losing the ability to post coherently except you obviously never possessed it in the first place.
Go back to your petulant shrieking, it's clearly all you're good for.
Public schools prepare their pupils for Oxbridge more intensely than state schools as they see success at getting pupils in to Oxbridge as something that makes the place attractive to parents. Most public school folks end up doing "respectable" middle class jobs.
The UK front bench phenomenon is probably more function of Oxford PPE where something like 16% of MPs have the dreaded letters. The issue of elites is increasingly less that of their schools and more the professionalisation of politicians in a small clique. Nicola Sturgeon appears to be leading the way for the Nats.
I would also contend that comparisons between UK and Scottish parliaments are fairly pointless since the issue is really what would a Indy Parlt look like ? Since there are 129 Holyrood seats and Scotland sends 59 of it's best and brightest to Westminster, I'd say that post indy the 59 would displace more of the 129 and give it a few years there won't be that much difference between the two parliaments.
To be fair, I think Stuart predicted between 40-60% downthread. For disclosure I put 30-40%, but probably on the high end of that range.
Who knows, there might even be a hot summer and water rationing ;^) in the meantime. Then again, Cameron might actually win a war.
Ofcourse Cammo will resist...Once the wall of noise goes,he`ll be exposed badly for his inability to do detail.
Clegg is safe, he needs to absorb as much toxicity personally as he can for the sake of the party, then be flushed down the sewer.
Well it's blatantly obvious that any possible lib dem challenger and leader replacement doesn't want to take over and become the coalition shit magnet this far out from the GE.
The question is whether any of them have the bottle to initiate leadership proceedings as the 2015 election campaign looms. Whisper campaign? They might do that and hope Clegg does the decent thing and stands down. It's also pertinent that any challenger who waited till after 2015 would be dealing with a devastated lib dem party with far less MPs and no clear way of knowing who will remain and which way they will jump. (against the Clegg direction of travel obviously but that there will be very few realistic replacements who won't be doing that)
The question is whether any of them have the bottle to initiate leadership proceedings as the 2015 election campaign looms. Whisper campaign? They might do that and hope Clegg does the decent thing and stands down. It's also pertinent that any challenger who waited till after 2015 would be dealing with a devastated lib dem party with far less MPs and no clear way of knowing who will remain and which way they will jump. (against the Clegg direction of travel obviously but that there will be very few realistic replacements who won't be doing that)
McBlatantly McObvious but too McChicken to put it in a percentage prediction?
I did wonder about the final point, but decided not to explore it. As you say, it would affect Labour, and to some extent the LDs, far more than (for their very different reasons) the SNP and Tories. So yes we get the 2nd XV there. But there is another factor however which is that experienced Labour MSPs stood on the constituency lists and some got the chop in 2011, but were to a considerable degree (as the system was devised to do) replaced under the weird Holyrood system with the third XV who were on the regional lists. So the current lot is a sort of mix of 2nd XV partly struck down by dreaded lurgy and replacements from the 3rd XV.
Con 39% (332)
Lab 30% (258)
LD 15% (33)
UKIP 6% (0)
Smaller parties 10% (NI 18 PC 3 SNP 6)
Shriek louder petal.
thank you, I'll be here all week! ;')
Lab gain Redcar!
Bit like Watford form team now!!!
Con gain Bradford West (maybe)!!!!
Or even give me a predicted percentage....
Cling on for dear life best they can, then rebuild once the shit magnet has gone, hoping there's still something left of the party to actually build on.
Shit magnet Clegg is safe.
That does still depend on lib dem MPs in far from safe seats not panicking or indeed just initiating revenge proceedings for why they are about to lose their seat.
I really don't think it's quite sunk in yet just how damaging calamity Clegg is going to be in any election campaign. He will be eviscerated by the media and the public if he makes any pledges or "no more broken promises" this time around. 'Red lines' will be sought on every single policy for him to deal with.
A party leader unable to make any credible pledges or promises in an election campaign is dead weight. Those lib dem MPs in very marginal seats might just decide that a temporary boost and honeymoon period from a new leader could just be worth it if it enables them to hang onto their job. It does seem clear that Clegg's ostrich faction want to hang on though. So it's just a question of whether desperate self-preservation or a weary resignation to a an electoral disaster is the more prevalent attitude among lib dem MPs and the activist base. (what's left of them by then)
I really don't think it's quite sunk in yet just how damaging calamity Clegg is going to be in any election campaign. He will be eviscerated by the media and the public if he makes any pledges or "no more broken promises" this time around. 'Red lines' will be sought on every single policy for him to deal with.
A party leader unable to make any credible pledges or promises in an election campaign is dead weight. Those lib dem MPs in very marginal seats might just decide that a temporary boost and honeymoon period from a new leader could just be worth it if it enables them to hang onto their job. It does seem clear that Clegg's ostrich faction want to hang on though. So it's just a question of whether desperate self-preservation or a weary resignation to a an electoral disaster is the more prevalent attitude among lib dem MPs and the activist base. (what's left of them by then)
McScaredyCatChicken...
Nice to see you back ave it ;-)
McBawk McBawk!
Jonny, Mick is under no obligation to give a prediction, so please drop this particular line and move on.
Mick, for the avoidance of doubt, you are only allowed to use the term Tories, PB Tories, and Right wingers.
Please don't add any other description, such as extreme right wing Tories, you were told not to use the term far right last night.
To avoid breaking the spirit of Mike's ruling, please desist.
Can both of you confirm you understand these instructions.
For those who weren't around at the time, antifrank's contribution to Hibernian psephology first came to notice when he correctly predicted (and he may well have been the only person who predicted) that there would be not a haggis, not a sausage, not even a designer chipolata's worth, of change in the Scottish seat totals in GE 2010 compared with 2005:
We can expect this election to be a no change election in Scotland at least.
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2010/02/scottish-play.html
This was at a time when some of our distinguished Scottish friends were adamant that the SNP was going to make big gains.
So 30% to 40% is where the smart money is going.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-18/spanish-bad-loans-hit-record-surge-most-year
And what future for Ukraine? Civil war and a northwest v southeast tearing apart? My sympathy goes out to those Ukraine freedom fighters who lost their lives today:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-18/how-ukrainian-protesters-attack-armored-personnel-carrier
A timely intervention indeed and thankfully the only one that needed to be made.
Two take-aways from YouGov/Sun poll. 1. Labour pulling away amongst ABC1s and 2. UKIP strength among 60+ C2DEs @YouGov
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/93208/the_daily_mail_tuesday_18th_february_2014.html
Watching abit of the Scottish parliament today,loved how Sturgeon kept reminding the Scottish public of Scottish labours new found friends - the tories = lol
Scottish labour must be cringing ;-) it looked it every time she mentioned it ;-)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10645625/Inflation-falls-below-2pc-target-for-first-time-in-four-years.html
I'm getting worried for Osborne. People have short memories, and he's starting to make this economic management thing look just too easy. Widespread public complacency could let Balls in by the back door. I never thought things could be too perfect, but Osborne looks as if he's getting there.
31.12.2014 8000
31.12.2015 10000
31.12.2000 20000
31.12.2025 100000
Scottish labour must be cringing ;-) it looked it every time she mentioned it ;-)
Not new but given rocket fuel by having Osbrowne as the face of the No campaign. Some of the more amusing PB tories on here still haven't worked out that bouncing labour into this is not going to soon be forgotten by some in labour. They had their own timetable and strategy and having Osbrowne front and centre with them tagging along behind was definitely not it.
If the polls start to go bad for No in the final deciding weeks of the campaign then expect a colossal bucket of sh*t to be poured all over Cammie and Osbrowne's 'master strategies' as the blame game takes on a huge dimension. It will then be used in the GE campaign which will be all but underway by that time anyway.
GN all - CON overall majority soon!
I have to say it looks like a very heavy Belfast night of the past, just with larger number in one place.
The tactical situation on the ground at the epicentre of trouble is not good for the protestors as it stands. Its a space that can ultimately be choked by the authorities and the street -based opposition movement will need to maintain channels. It is, bluntly, a man's fight. You look at the protestors now, its overwhelmingly men, often younger. The opposition movement has left its street fighters out which doesn't bode well for peace in the very short term.
At this point at street-level, the advantages lie with the authorities. To that end the opposition needs:
1. a loss of nerve on the political front by the President. He himself is slightly shaky and has been for a bit. Plenty of others around him are most definitely not at this point.
2. Assuming this requires being on the street to get their way, what the opposition needs is to launch out elsewhere, both in Kiev and around the country. So far this has not happened to the degree it needs to.
As a result the authorities could crack down in the one major location and finish this stage of protest. The bloodshed may be mighty but within that space the authorities have the ability to cycle resources and do a mix of holding the line and upsurges to exhaust the protestors, over days if necessary, before moving in.
The authorities do have more tools here and haven't used them . It is, believe it or not, an element of restraint or alternatively the subject to a stiffling internal debate that is stiffling the full on crackdown.
No sign of the army yet. If the current government had full control and/or direction it wouldn't need a law to bring them in, it would need an order. It hasn't come even though a significant number of military personnel have been moved closer to the action.
It is delicately poised. From the armchair, and sadly for the protestors, it looks as if they have some policy and civil affairs wonks in suits from the EU to advise them. The Ukrainian government has Putin and a fairly (it isn't 100%) solid security apparatus. Doesnt sound even does it? In reality there is somewhat more robust and dirty tactics type contacts coming from at least two EU countries. The Russians say the Europeans are stoking. On this they are correct.
JohnLooney Did you not see Hugh Bonneville on Graham Norton on Friday
'Watching abit of the Scottish parliament today,loved how Sturgeon kept reminding the Scottish public of Scottish labours new found friends - the tories = lol'
What else can she say when two of the SNP's key separation policies have been demolished in a week?
Let Damian Thompson enlighten you:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/damianthompson/100186741/incest-a-favoured-cause-of-old-lefties/