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Is this the best way to deal with two massive elections at the same time? – politicalbetting.com
Is this the best way to deal with two massive elections at the same time? – politicalbetting.com
In 1964 there were less than three weeks between the UK general & US presidential elections. During that time Khrushchev was overthrown in the USSR & China produced its first atomic bomb. The world endured.
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It’s pretty clear Netanyahu is a wrongun. In the tiering of global bad guy national leaders I’d place him in tier 3.
Tier 1: Putin, Khamenei, Kim Yong Un, Taliban, Hamas leadership, coup leaders in various Sahel countries
Tier 2: Xi, Kagame, Myanmar junta, Lukashenko, MBS, Maduro
Tier 3: Bibi, Erdogan, Modi, Orban, Trump
Tier 4: all the various semi-populist somewhat corrupt but not so dangerous leaders around the world (I’d have put Johnson here if he were still PM)
Tier 5: normal democratic politicians including ones we like or don’t like, from Truss to Rishi to Starmer to Macron to Biden.
I’d put Myanmar lower - they have limited reach outside their borders and although the treatment of the Rohingya is horrific it’s not much worse than many others have done. I’d also put Lukashenko lower - he’s a marginal player without much capability or agency beyond what Putin gives him.
More me Erdpgan is the closest to Netenyahu
https://twitter.com/DickMackintosh/status/1715860935015887224/mediaViewer?currentTweet=1715860935015887224¤tTweetUser=DickMackintosh
It's a fat bloke wrapped in an Israeli flag shouting at the top of his voice "We will kill you all one by one fucking Muslins" whilst crossing his throat as if to behead those he is shouting at. No idea where its filmed.
Israel’s version of Hamas.
If not are there any forecasts?
Do you think that that post, and your comment, is rather telling? That you use one video (source uncertain) as 'evidence' of Israeli policy?
Yet you are silent when Hamas wants to kill all Jews, and its leader says that millions of deaths are worth their victory?
Why do you have such a disconnect?
I reckon SKSICIPM
Well it worked last time!!
Lovely Twitter...
I hate to bring up what you went through years ago, but I really don’t understand why you don’t understand the evil that is Islamist terrorism as practiced by Hamas and others
Am going to try not to mention Palestine anymore today as emotions get raised on both sides.
Let's talk CPI and GE2024
Chris Williamson’s tweet ‘Israel has forfeited any right to exist’ is now under police investigation.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-67161730
Williamson, of course, is a genuine and unredeemable antisemite, perhaps most bizarrely shown in his statement that claims of his antisemitism were part of an international Jewish conspiracy to discredit him.
Here, however, we come back to an awkward problem. Should he be prosecuted for such views? After all, it’s not as though he is like his friends in Hamas actually trying to carry them out. And however repellent his views - and calling for a genocide is repellent - is there not something difficult about censoring what people say, because it’s a subjective question?
wonders.
It couldn't be because the Govt are bunch of deceitful scumbags who need turfing out at the first opportunity. Once trust is lost ,its impossible to regain. I have no faith in this Govt.
The triple lock is completely unaffordable when Public Services are on their knees.
I would be happy with 6.7
And good morning everybody; hope it’s drying up in Scotland. It’s quite pleasant here blue skies and white clouds.
Also surely 6.7 means you are keeping up with inflation and haven't you received any of the energy top ups as well?
F1: no real read on the race in terms of cunning betting insights. Suspicion is Verstappen to win with Norris and Hamilton hard to separate for runner-up.
Leclerc's loss of time to Hamilton in the sprint bodes ill for the Ferrari.
Edited extra bit: will likely back a Briton to be winner each way, if I can decide who to go for...
I totally agree about January. It would be political suicide.
December is vaguely possible but the Brexit election of 2019 is best seen as a one-off.
There's no real point going for November. It holds next-to-no advantages over October and many disadvantages. The clocks have gone back. It's a hiatus from autumn to Christmas and it's a bloody miserable month: for most people the worst of the year.
So October or September. The latter is an interesting idea. I'm warming to it.
Or Spring but I think it less likely.
September / October 2024 60%
Spring 2024 25%
November 2024 5%
December 2024 8%
January 2025 2%
Example. Energy costs are lower (yay!) but most people aren't getting a Truss bung this year (right and proper but boo!) so my DD is pretty much the same and a lot higher than before the Ukraine war started. How does that appear in inflation stats and the "cash at the end of the month" test?
Another example. The reason public sector strikes were solved was often a one-off bonus. How many of the (no doubt grateful) recipients of those realise that they're heading for less money next year than this year?
And that's before we get onto the cost of accommodation which varies from nearly zero if you have a paid-off mortgage to more than most people can imagine if you don't.
Betting PostF1: backed Hamilton at 6.5 to be winner each way.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2023/10/usa-pre-race-2023.html
Save the prosecutions for more overt actions, such as those directly supporting the actions of a proscribed terrorist group by name, or fundraising on their behalf.
I agree with all of it.
January election nailed on then?
In the professional game, you can be stomped for all to see, especially on a slipperly pitch. You can go backwards or go down. And the referee has no sympathy - if he even knows what's going on. You can be penalised for doing your best and breaking no law.
At least, they earn a lot now.
It is a documentary covering 30-years of diplomatic effort to secure peace in the Middle East, using interviews with key figures.
It reminded me of how disastrous was the assassination of Rabin and how poisonous is Netanyahu.
https://www.newonnetflix.info/info/81555474
Edit - assume it was typing issues? Feel a bit mean now for saying it...
Don’t feel mean!
In the back of my mind was the thought of Callaghan aiming to ‘hang on’ until October that year, and being forced into an election by the failure of a N. Irish MP to arrive in time for a confidence vote.
We have an over-mighty security state much too used to getting its own way without proper scrutiny. We shouldn't hold our democratic process hostage to security considerations, without a lot more specific and detailed information about much more credible additional threats.
“What was clear is that they want to get rid of the prime minister; what was less clear was who they wanted to replace him with,” the MP said. “I told them I didn’t think the British public would forgive us for changing prime minister again and that it would likely hurt not help our electoral fortunes.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/when-next-uk-general-election-rishi-sunak-2023-wwl2brt3h
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ai-will-destroy-tv-news/
DAN HODGES: If Tories are being trounced in their safest citadels, all Rishi can do is sit down... and pray
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-12657739/DAN-HODGES-Tories-trounced-Rishi-sit-pray.html
These things reflect different levels of someone being a cock, and should be called out: but it pains me that we now live in a world where they are unlawful.
Potentially different, of course, if you direct these things at a specific person or people, but even then I’m uneasy about abuse (however vile, abusive or racist) being a criminal matter.
A hard man who has failed to keep his people safe from a group his govt helped prop up.
This should precipitate his political demise.
Just watching the Partygate Channel 4 docudrama on youtube. I know it's dramatised for TV etc, but oh my God...
The Tories must be scraping the barrel putting Jenrick up.
Temporally drowning out the mopeds. And the gunshots
A) Bought years ago, paid their mortgage regularly until it was paid off. Now live in accommodation which is essentially free.
C) Are living in rented accommodation at current rares (although there's a huge variation there - rents for new tenants are up by about 50% in the last 3 years, but a lot of existing tennants aren't paying anything like that).
If you pay pensions/benefits to everyone at a level where those in 'C' aren't in grinding poverty, those in 'A' are going to be doing pretty well out of it, as they probably get twice what they need to live on. This will also cost the government a fortune.
If you means test according and pay according to need, why would anybody work hard and pay their mortgage off? Or if you are in that position, why not gift the house to your kids then rent it back - that way you can pass it on IHT free and you get full whack pension.
I'm not sure what the answer is (other than building houses/restricting immigration until there are more than enough houses to go round), but the spectacular growth in rental costs is rapidly making it a bigger issue at the moment.
Is he calling for a genocide? (And I mean that in the sense of can you prove that in a court of law?) He is not calling for anyone to be murdered or expelled, but for a different geopolitical structure. If someone said “Northern Ireland has forfeited any right to exist” and campaigned for Irish unification, that wouldn’t be genocidal, would it?
Even if he is calling for genocide, is that illegal under UK law? The Terrorism Act 2000 forbids expressing support for terrorism. That’s presumably what he’s being investigated under. But the Terrorism Act says nothing about calling for genocide being a crime. The question is presumably whether his comment constitutes supporting terrorism. But it’s legal to support an outcome that terrorists also support. It’s legal to call for Basque independence or Irish unification, for example.
The Tories don't seem to need help with the latter right now though.
Anyway, say New Zealand and Canada were having elections at the same time, no-one would even notice. So its that its the US election that is the issue, and its because Trump has a decent chance to move it to an Erdogan style "democracy", and that risk is similar whenever we hold our election.
Don't say you weren't warned...
Enough said.
Has to be a fighting chance Boris goes for Mid-Beds or Tamworth at the GE on exactly that basis.
I wonder what this Norweigian lady thinks she means, for example: